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The Net Loss Rate Is At A Three-Year High For The Subprime Sector,
While Stable In The Prime Sector
Recovery Rate Rises For Both Subprime And Prime Sector
Sixty-Plus-Day Delinquencies Increased Moderately For Subprime, While
Remaining Stable for Prime
Auto Loan ABS New Issuance Summary
Recent ABS Auto Loan Rating Activity
U.S. ABS Auto Loan Historical Ratings
Auto Loan Static Index And Collateral Trends Data
Issuer-Specific Cumulative Net Loss Index Data
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Table 1
2.83
3.83
2.70
1.78
1.56
1.50
2.04
2.29
44.23
41.05
49.97
52.88
61.55
55.74
50.47
54.15
1.39
1.49
1.28
0.96
0.91
0.95
1.27
1.26
ABS--Asset-backed securities.
The Net Loss Rate Is At A Three-Year High For The Subprime Sector, While
Stable In The Prime Sector
The net loss rate in the subprime sector peaked at 6.65% in October 2013, up by approximately 17% from September
2013 (5.66%). (See table 2 and chart 1.) The subprime sector had not seen a level of losses this high since March 2010,
when it was 6.76%.
The average net loss rate for 2013 through October is 4.54%. While this is higher than the average net loss rate for the
first 10 months of 2012 (3.96%), it is comparable to the average for the first 10 months of 2011 (4.59%) and lower than
the average for the first 10 months of 2010 (5.86%). In addition, the average October net loss rate in the subprime
sector has been 6.98% since 2006--above the 6.65% rate in October 2013.
The net loss rate in the prime sector was 0.40% in October, unchanged from September. The average net loss rate for
2013 through October is 0.33%. This is comparable to the average net loss rate for the first 10 months of 2012 (0.30%),
and significantly lower than the average for the first 10 months of 2011 and 2010 (0.55% and 0.85%, respectively).
We calculate the net loss rate as a percentage of the collateral balance at the beginning of the month, which we then
annualize.
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We generally categorize prime ABS transactions as those backed by loan pools with initial expected cumulative net
losses of 3% or less, average FICO scores of 680 or higher, and annual percentage rates (APRs) of 0% to 5%. We
generally expect loan pools backing subprime ABS transactions to have cumulative net losses of at least 7.5%, average
FICO scores of less than 620, and APRs exceeding 14%.
Table 2
0.81
1.64
1.44
0.81
0.54
0.34
0.40
0.40
Subprime (%)
7.51
10.92
8.70
6.19
5.27
5.05
5.66
6.65
Chart 1
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We calculate the recovery rate as the percentage of a defaulted loan's total value that is recovered through liquidation
of the collateral or post disposition.
Table 3
Recovery Rate
Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Sep-13 Oct-13
Prime (%)
48.18
43.36
52.80
54.47
66.67
58.71
54.68
59.50
Subprime (%)
36.96
34.31
41.98
43.89
42.34
46.28
41.31
43.56
Chart 2
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Table 4
0.46
0.54
0.60
0.52
0.47
0.29
0.33
0.33
Subprime (%)
3.70
4.80
4.78
3.14
2.50
2.93
3.30
3.39
Chart 3
Originator
VW Credit Inc.
Collateral
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Table 5
Rating
A-1
A-1+ (sf)
304.00
0.23
A-2
AAA (sf)
502.00
0.42
A-3
AAA (sf)
530.00
0.70
A-4
AAA (sf)
164.00
1.16
"Presale: Volkswagen Auto Loan Enhanced Trust 2013-2," published Nov. 04, 2013.
Originator
Collateral
Rating
A-1
A-1+ (sf)
35.40
0.33
A-2
AAA (sf)
96.00
0.89
A-3
AAA (sf)
74.35
1.44
AA (sf)
11.50
2.32
A (sf)
20.75
2.91
BBB (sf)
12.00
3.67
"Presale: First Investors Auto Owner Trust 2013-3," published Nov. 04, 2013.
Originator
Collateral
Rating
A-1
A-1+ (sf)
73.00
0.27
A-2
AAA (sf)
132.76
0.56
A-3
AAA (sf)
115.45
0.85
A-4
AAA (sf)
65.35
1.27
AA (sf)
18.05
1.78
A (sf)
20.76
2.24
BBB (sf)
20.31
2.89
"Presale: Chrysler Capital Auto Receivables Trust 2013-B," published Nov. 05, 2013.
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Originator
Collateral
3.80 - 4.10
Rating
A-1
AAA (sf)
LIB1M + 0.38
A-2
AAA (sf)
240.00
0.85
A-3
AAA (sf)
271.00
1.09
A-4
AAA (sf)
73.94
1.47
AA (sf)
50.94
2.06
A (sf)
48.26
2.67
BBB (sf)
42.90
3.22
BB (sf)
37.53
3.83
(i) This assumes the additional pool's quality is the worst possible under the pool composition limits.
"Presale: Capital Auto Receivables Asset Trust 2013-4," published Nov. 18, 2013.
Upgrades
Downgrades
2001
56
2002
25
2003
32
22
2004
48
2005
87
2006
91
2007
116
2008
23
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Table 9
95
2010
62
2011
144
2012
138
153
1,070
39
Total
ABS--Asset-backed securities.
Collateral Trends
WA APR (%)
Used (%)
WA FICO
2002
5.73
2003
5.12
2004
WA LTV (%)
20.26
8.96
707
21.01
14.45
718
5.18
28.42
30.02
720
2005
5.62
24.60
31.23
721
2006
5.64
22.09
39.52
716
2007
6.25
21.63
39.49
706
101.69
2008
5.92
25.70
41.81
724
99.03
2009
5.62
28.08
41.58
741
95.74
2010
5.09
25.56
43.37
742
95.12
2011
4.45
17.78
43.40
735
97.48
2012
4.00
24.55
44.90
745
94.48
2013 (YTD)
3.98
27.96
46.93
740
96.72
2002
17.28
69.41
35.89
579
2003
16.29
68.11
44.05
588
2004
16.07
62.39
47.98
590
2005
15.78
68.99
59.66
586
2006
15.78
72.72
69.46
587
Prime
Subprime
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Table 10
16.33
72.52
68.99
594
120.17
2008
16.66
76.73
80.65
594
121.33
2009
16.55
73.39
85.53
594
114.00
2010
17.76
76.24
73.57
574
111.94
2011
16.31
68.74
77.51
575
111.81
2012
17.01
72.11
76.90
573
113.15
2013 (YTD)
16.59
69.80
81.72
578
114.28
WA--Weighted average. APR--Annual percentage rate. WAOM--Weighted average original maturity. WA LTV--Weighted average loan-to-value.
YTD--Year to date. N/A--Not applicable.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Issuer
Month 36
Month 36
Month 36
Month 36
Month 36
Month 24
Month 11
Prime
1.56
2.60
2.01
0.92
0.54
0.47
0.19
Ally
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.42
0.25
0.24
0.11
Bank of America
N/A
N/A
0.98
0.78
0.39
N/A
0.10
Carmax
2.38
3.37
3.10
2.01
1.15
0.98
0.54
Ford
1.57
1.88
1.89
1.06
0.68
0.44
0.18
Honda
1.03
0.83
0.91
0.68
0.39
N/A
0.12
Huntington
5.00
2.86
2.51
1.91
N/A
0.30
0.16
Hyundai
2.63
3.43
2.35
1.29
0.77
0.54
0.33
Mercedes-Benz
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.68
0.40
N/A
0.11
Mitsubishi
N/A
2.82
1.93
1.89
1.93
1.48
0.58
Toyota
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.25
0.17
0.14
USAA
1.00
0.79
0.52
0.41
0.30
N/A
0.10
Volkswagen
N/A
1.42
1.98
N/A
0.88
0.45
0.18
World Omni
1.66
2.59
3.43
1.24
0.51
0.73
0.41
11.50
13.59
14.42
8.97
8.13
5.18
2.88
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
15.64
10.86
12.91
14.63
14.23
9.22
4.79
3.87
1.69
Subprime
American Credit Acceptance
AmeriCredit
CarNow (Byrider)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
11.83
CPS
14.48
15.60
15.80
N/A
12.31
6.13
2.16
Drivetime
30.05
30.41
N/A
N/A
19.01
19.70
13.16
Exeter
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5.09
First Investors
5.67
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4.68
2.13
Flagship
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2.94
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Table 11
9.45
13.01
N/A
7.30
N/A
4.96
1.72
22.97
23.49
N/A
N/A
10.10
6.57
2.72
SNAAC
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3.80
Tidewater
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5.85
N/A
2.41
12.2(i)
14.16(i)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.33
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
6.47
9.48
4.04
UACC
Westlake
N/A--Not applicable, as there was no issuance rated by Standard & Poor's during the year. (i)In 2006 and 2007, UACC completed securitizations
under the UPFC name.
No. of deals
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)
2005
2006
46
34
2007 2008
32
37
2009
2010
2011
2012
26
28
20
31
Month
1
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.07
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.09
0.11
0.22
0.19
0.14
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.12
0.15
0.31
0.27
0.18
0.12
0.09
0.08
0.16
0.20
0.39
0.35
0.23
0.15
0.12
0.10
0.20
0.25
0.48
0.44
0.28
0.18
0.15
0.12
0.23
0.29
0.57
0.53
0.33
0.21
0.17
0.14
10
0.27
0.34
0.66
0.63
0.37
0.24
0.19
0.17
11
0.31
0.38
0.77
0.72
0.41
0.26
0.22
0.19
12
0.34
0.42
0.87
0.81
0.45
0.29
0.24
0.21
13
0.38
0.47
0.96
0.90
0.48
0.31
0.27
0.23
14
0.41
0.52
1.06
0.98
0.51
0.34
0.29
15
0.45
0.57
1.16
1.07
0.54
0.36
0.31
16
0.48
0.62
1.27
1.14
0.58
0.38
0.33
17
0.51
0.67
1.38
1.22
0.61
0.40
0.35
18
0.54
0.72
1.48
1.29
0.64
0.42
0.37
19
0.57
0.77
1.58
1.36
0.67
0.44
0.39
20
0.60
0.82
1.68
1.43
0.69
0.46
0.41
21
0.62
0.87
1.79
1.49
0.72
0.47
0.43
22
0.65
0.92
1.88
1.55
0.74
0.49
0.44
23
0.68
0.97
1.96
1.60
0.76
0.50
0.46
24
0.70
1.02
2.03
1.65
0.77
0.51
0.47
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Table 12
0.72
1.08
2.11
1.69
0.79
0.53
26
0.75
1.13
2.17
1.73
0.80
0.54
27
0.77
1.18
2.23
1.76
0.82
0.55
28
0.80
1.23
2.30
1.79
0.83
0.56
29
0.82
1.28
2.36
1.82
0.84
0.57
30
0.84
1.33
2.41
1.85
0.85
0.57
31
0.86
1.37
2.45
1.88
0.86
0.58
32
0.88
1.42
2.48
1.91
0.87
0.59
33
0.91
1.46
2.52
1.95
0.89
0.52
34
0.93
1.50
2.55
1.97
0.90
0.53
35
0.95
1.53
2.58
1.98
0.91
0.53
36
0.96
1.56
2.60
2.01
0.92
0.54
0.49
Table 13
No. of deals
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
46
34
32
37
26
28
20
31
Month
1
0.02
0.04
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.07
0.11
0.21
0.15
0.12
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.21
0.15
0.31
0.20
0.18
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.17
0.19
0.36
0.25
0.21
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.19
0.20
0.38
0.30
0.24
0.15
0.13
0.14
0.20
0.23
0.39
0.33
0.25
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.23
0.25
0.38
0.35
0.26
0.18
0.17
0.18
0.29
0.26
0.41
0.41
0.29
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.30
0.30
0.43
0.43
0.31
0.20
0.19
0.21
10
0.31
0.32
0.44
0.43
0.32
0.21
0.23
0.23
11
0.34
0.35
0.48
0.45
0.33
0.22
0.26
0.26
12
0.35
0.36
0.53
0.50
0.33
0.25
0.26
0.27
13
0.38
0.38
0.54
0.52
0.37
0.26
0.26
0.28
14
0.40
0.43
0.59
0.54
0.39
0.26
0.26
15
0.39
0.44
0.65
0.57
0.40
0.28
0.28
16
0.40
0.44
0.69
0.60
0.43
0.31
0.30
17
0.40
0.44
0.72
0.62
0.44
0.31
0.33
18
0.43
0.47
0.74
0.64
0.46
0.32
0.33
19
0.44
0.50
0.78
0.66
0.48
0.33
0.35
20
0.48
0.53
0.82
0.70
0.50
0.35
0.37
21
0.50
0.55
0.86
0.66
0.52
0.35
0.38
22
0.51
0.59
0.87
0.65
0.55
0.38
0.42
23
0.53
0.64
0.86
0.66
0.55
0.40
0.44
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Table 13
0.56
0.64
0.91
0.69
0.55
0.42
0.46
25
0.60
0.67
0.91
0.71
0.58
0.43
0.47
26
0.63
0.70
0.95
0.71
0.60
0.44
27
0.61
0.70
0.99
0.75
0.64
0.48
28
0.66
0.75
1.02
0.76
0.66
0.49
29
0.67
0.77
1.03
0.80
0.66
0.51
30
0.69
0.78
0.98
0.83
0.69
0.52
31
0.72
0.85
1.00
0.86
0.73
0.55
32
0.74
0.90
1.03
0.89
0.63
0.53
33
0.83
0.92
1.05
0.91
0.69
0.57
34
0.84
0.95
1.06
0.89
0.70
0.59
35
0.82
1.04
1.05
0.92
0.72
0.63
36
0.88
1.03
1.12
0.87
0.72
0.68
Table 14
No. of deals
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)
2005
2006
2007
26
23
19
2008 2009
4
2.52
1.10 10.83
6.82 14.03
2010 2011
14
15
2012
26
Month
1
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.07
0.05
0.03
0.04
0.10
0.13
0.11
0.14
0.31
0.15
0.12
0.13
0.30
0.38
0.38
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.37
0.43
0.61
0.73
0.83
0.86
1.16
0.77
0.63
0.79
0.96
1.17
1.39
1.41
1.59
1.03
0.85
1.08
1.31
1.61
1.91
1.99
2.07
1.34
1.09
1.41
1.66
1.98
2.43
2.54
2.42
1.65
1.32
1.75
1.99
2.37
2.96
3.20
2.82
2.01
1.57
2.11
10
2.31
2.71
3.47
3.82
3.10
2.32
1.82
2.48
11
2.59
3.05
3.97
4.49
3.40
2.62
2.08
2.88
12
2.89
3.43
4.47
5.16
3.69
2.91
2.36
13
3.17
3.83
4.95
5.73
4.05
3.19
2.63
14
3.51
4.26
5.39
6.28
4.39
3.52
2.91
15
3.82
4.68
5.87
6.89
4.75
3.85
3.21
16
4.15
5.13
6.38
7.44
5.11
4.17
3.47
17
4.45
5.56
6.89
8.00
5.43
4.50
3.71
18
4.76
5.99
7.39
8.52
5.77
4.79
3.93
19
5.07
6.39
7.91
8.90
6.06
5.06
4.14
20
5.34
6.77
8.39
9.34
6.24
5.33
4.35
21
5.59
7.12
8.86
9.80
6.53
5.57
4.59
22
5.85
7.45
9.32 10.23
6.71
5.77
4.80
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Table 14
6.11
7.77
9.76 10.69
6.92
5.97
5.01
24
6.32
7.10
6.17
5.18
25
6.55
7.28
6.38
26
6.79
7.49
6.61
27
7.03
7.69
6.80
28
7.26
7.91
7.01
29
7.46
8.07
7.21
30
8.24
7.37
31
8.41
7.58
32
8.55
7.72
33
8.71
7.78
34
8.82
7.95
35
8.88
8.10
36
8.97
8.13
37
9.05
38
9.13
39
9.22
40
9.33
41
9.44
42
9.50
43
9.85
Table 15
No. of deals
Initial collateral balance (bil. $)
2005
2006
26
23
2010 2011
14
15
2012
19
2.52
1.10 10.83
6.82 14.03
26
Month
1
0.05
0.12
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.10
0.05
0.04
0.51
0.63
0.64
0.69
1.22
1.07
0.54
0.67
1.03
1.18
1.42
1.51
1.42
1.74
1.04
1.47
1.38
1.64
2.09
1.82
1.51
1.86
1.25
1.97
1.65
1.96
2.44
1.85
1.64
1.97
1.36
2.33
1.85
2.12
2.61
1.87
1.68
2.10
1.24
2.37
2.05
2.22
2.82
2.24
2.07
2.38
1.32
2.24
2.13
2.33
2.97
2.60
1.35
2.58
1.50
2.38
2.09
2.34
3.03
2.79
1.04
2.61
1.72
2.62
10
2.12
2.47
3.13
2.75
1.24
2.54
1.93
2.98
11
2.23
2.73
3.25
2.57
1.52
2.50
2.04
3.34
12
2.40
3.16
3.32
2.45
1.76
2.75
2.14
13
2.66
3.50
3.34
2.55
1.75
3.05
2.40
14
2.89
3.81
3.65
2.57
2.40
3.30
2.41
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Table 15
2.99
3.93
4.00
2.84
1.75
3.52
2.56
16
2.96
4.11
4.15
2.82
1.74
3.58
2.58
17
2.99
4.21
4.37
2.30
1.86
3.64
2.49
18
3.11
4.17
4.45
2.25
1.88
3.73
2.35
19
3.35
4.19
4.55
2.42
2.47
3.94
2.40
20
3.47
4.21
4.47
2.64
1.56
4.04
2.57
21
3.38
4.13
4.66
2.82
1.23
4.03
2.80
22
3.41
4.15
4.74
2.53
1.26
3.92
3.00
23
3.57
4.25
4.57
2.30
1.43
4.08
2.97
24
3.76
4.55
4.56
2.11
1.66
4.42
3.10
25
3.99
4.76
4.42
2.22
1.77
4.71
26
4.22
4.88
4.54
2.33
2.16
4.94
27
4.26
4.84
4.62
2.60
1.72
5.00
28
4.26
5.08
4.77
2.70
1.70
5.10
29
4.23
5.18
4.93
2.04
2.00
5.29
30
4.37
5.06
4.80
1.99
1.96
5.40
31
4.64
5.11
4.82
2.20
2.69
5.56
32
4.68
5.02
4.73
2.41
1.60
5.66
33
4.52
4.90
4.69
2.83
1.25
5.65
34
4.49
4.81
4.73
2.48
1.30
5.57
35
4.48
4.96
4.49
2.26
1.68
5.67
36
4.70
5.19
4.41
2.12
1.81
5.74
37
5.00
5.45
4.34
2.29
2.02
38
5.16
5.66
4.30
2.31
2.90
39
5.24
5.65
4.40
2.69
2.48
40
5.20
5.62
4.52
2.80
2.17
41
5.19
5.56
4.71
1.97
2.24
42
5.35
5.31
4.62
2.03
2.09
43
8.13
5.41
4.76
2.28
3.12
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