Models and Tools

Generating evidence to inform policies and programs

At Futures Group, we anticipate what is needed tomorrow based on accurate information gathered today. We help countries think through their policies and plan long-term healthcare strategies to improve lives. Our responsive forecasting models are dynamic, adaptable and easily updated as requirements and assumptions change. By accurately estimating how much interventions cost and how well they do in achieving public health objectives, our tools link health goals with strategic planning. For example, as a countrys population grows we can estimate the resources needed for family planning and for making sure there are enough doctors, midwives, and community health workers to achieve global health targets. We ground our research in data and known trends and patterns, staying up-to-date by sifting through records, collecting actual unit costs and operational data from healthcare facilities, analyzing data from demographic and health surveys, and consulting epidemiological studies. In applying our models we work closely with policy makers, health professionals, civil society groups, and national and community leaders in each country. This approach helps to build a sustainable response to public health issues and helps inform programs and policies now and in the future.

Program Areas
population and family planning sexual and reproductive health maternal and child health hiv and aids infectious diseases gender poverty and equity

Technical Services
famplan
policy and advocacy research and strategic information  health markets and private sector engagement modeling and economic analysis health systems strengthening strategic consulting program management

Futures Group Offerings:

demproj
Makes demographic projections based on data and assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration.

Projects family planning requirements needed to reach national goals.

a  ids impact model (aim) Projects HIV prevalence, new infections, AIDS deaths, tuberculosis cases and orphans.

prevention of mother-to-child transmission

Evaluates the costs and benets of interventions.

resource needs model

Calculates the funding required for an expanded national HIV/AIDS response.

resources for the awareness of population impacts on development (rapid)

male circumcision decision makers program planning tool (dmppt)

Projects the social and economic consequences of high fertility and rapid population growth.

Projects the cost of Male Circumcision (MC) services and estimates the impact on the HIV epidemic.

food security and population

the goals model

Links population projections to estimates of food requirements and projections of food production and consumption as well as child malnutrition.

Estimates the impact of resource allocation patterns on HIV prevalence and treatment requirements.

capacity module

Forecasts the human resource requirements for expanding HIV/AIDS interventions.

Futures Group One Thomas Circle, NW Suite 200 Washington, DC 20005 U.S.A. tel 202.775.9680 fax 202.775.9694 Futures Group Europe, Ltd. 2nd Floor Turnberry House 100 Bunhill Row London, EC1Y 8ND U.K. tel +44(0) 20 7250 0556 fax +44(0) 20 7336 8742 Futures Group India, Pvt., Ltd. DLF Building No. 10-B, 5th Floor DLF Cyber City, Phase-II Gurgaon - 122002 (Haryana) India tel 91.124.4702000 fax 91.124.4702042

Record of Results:
Projected the cost and impact of various options in 14 eastern and southern African countries for scaling-up male circumcision services to reach 80 percent of adults and newborn males by 2015. Prepared more than 30 country-level cost-benet analyses that compared the costs of family planning with the benets of achieving Millennium Development Goals targets and reducing unmet need for family planning. Estimated the unit cost, resource requirements, and resource gaps for the national Orphans and Vulnerable Children plans of action in Cambodia and Ethiopia.

Approach in Action: RAPID/Women

Nassira is from Mali. A young mother of three, she was married at the age of 15 and had her rst child by 17. Nassira has been pregnant ve times, and has always given birth at home. She has never used family planning methods. She did not have the opportunity to attend school. Her husband makes all the decisions about household purchases and may beat her if she challenges his decisions. Nassiras story is not uniqueit can be heard throughout Mali. Nassira is the average woman in this West African nation. What if we could improve the of Malian women and their families by improving family planning, girls education, and gender norms? What if, through telling Nassiras story, decision makers had information to understand the realities in their country and the impact of improved health and well-being? With funding from USAID and the Packard Foundation, Futures Group has developed an interactive software tool called RAPID/Women. It calculates how family planning positively impacts the quality of life for women, girls, and families, and contributes to overall development efforts. The model, which was pilot-tested in Mali, weaves statistics into a story that help to humanize and make for a stronger, more compelling argument for increased investments in family planning and reproductive health interventions.

Photo by: Curt Carnemark/World Bank

RAPID/Women: Improving Womens Status

Models help us to connect the dots between seemingly unconnected variables in a dynamic world. They help us to understand the magnitude and importance of synergies between program interventions. RAPID/Women shows that the impact of family planning on the quality of life can be more than doubled if coupled with improvements in girls education and changes in gender norms.
Scott Moreland Senior Fellow Futures Group

Learning skills internationally, having an impact locally

Futures Group works with policymakers and program managers around the globe to develop tools and methods to forecast the complex costs and impact of HIV, reproductive health and other health programs. From April 2011 to March 2012, Futures Group through the USAID | Health Policy Initiative Costing Task Order, trained more than 200 people from more than 40 countries in costing and modeling methods. One trainee was Rajan Bhattarai from Nepal. At the time he attended the workshop, he worked for the Nepal National Centre for AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Disease Control. By applying his knowledge from the workshop, he was able to lead the development of his countrys National Strategic Plan 20112016. In his current job with Save the Children Nepals Global Fund program, he will continue to help craft the national action plans for his country, relying on the skills he acquired through the training. This type of training builds in-country capacity to carry out HIV costing from trained local persons, he said.

Futures Group, the global health consulting rm, helps to protect and promote peoples well-being around the world. Futures Group has created lasting solutions to some of the most pressing public health challenges facing nations. For more information, please visit www.futuresgroup.com, www.facebook.com/FuturesGroup, and www.twitter.com/FuturesGroupGbl.

Photo by: Curt Carnemark/World Bank