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Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation

Young Scientists Workshop “Data assimilation, dealing with uncertainties, and the prediction capabilities of models in water research” Seminaris Hotel Lüneburg, erman!

"ctober #th $e%ening& ' ((th $morning& )**+

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Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation

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Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation
,oWa -ewsletter .ugust )**+

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.ims of the workshop........................................................................................................................." 0rogramme..........................................................................................................................................# "rgani1ing /ommittee.......................................................................................................................$ Workshop 2enues............................................................................................................................... ,e!note Speakers %rof. Dr.techn. &'nter Bl(schl.............................................................................................................) Dr. *atthias Drusch...........................................................................................................................1+ %rof. Dr. %eter ,eichert......................................................................................................................11 %rof. dr.ir. S-oerd ..A./.*. 0an der 1ee............................................................................................1! 0articipants Dr. 2eli3 Ament..................................................................................................................................14 Dr. 5ans-Stefan Bauer........................................................................................................................1# Dr. rer. nat. 6hristof Be7er.................................................................................................................1$ Dr. 5elge Bormann............................................................................................................................1) Dr.-8ng. 9(rg Dietrich.........................................................................................................................!1 Dipl. .n0ir. Sciences *artin 2re7......................................................................................................!4 Dipl.-&eo(kol. Bastian &raupner.......................................................................................................!# Dipl.-57drol. 9ens &rundmann..........................................................................................................!$ Dr. B-(rn &'cker................................................................................................................................!) Dr. Anke 5ilde:randt.........................................................................................................................41 Dr. 9ohan Ale3ander ;Sander< 5uisman.............................................................................................4! Dipl.-&eo(kol. Sascha 6hristian 8den................................................................................................4" Dr. Son-a 6. 9=hnig.............................................................................................................................4> Dr. Da0id ?neis..................................................................................................................................4 Dipl.-8ng. Stefan ?r=mer...................................................................................................................."+ Dipl.-&eo(kol. /o:ias ?rueger.........................................................................................................."! Dipl.-&eol. 6hristine ?':eck............................................................................................................."" Dr. .0a @ora *'ller..........................................................................................................................."> Dr. Aars @erger..................................................................................................................................."
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Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation

Dipl.-8ng. Ben-amin @itsch................................................................................................................") Dr. ?arsten ,inke...............................................................................................................................#1 Dipl.-Biomath. Stefanie ,ost.............................................................................................................#4 Dr. @ele Schuwirth.............................................................................................................................## Dipl.-8ng- Aeopold Stadler.................................................................................................................#> Dr. 5enning Wilker............................................................................................................................#)

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We assume that it will :e easier to initiate interdisciplinar7 pro-ects focusing on methods rather than ha0ing to define the interfaces :etween the models of the different disciplines when addressing a thematic topic. Data are treated with different approaches in 0arious models.de< http://www.D2&< for ad0anced 7oung researchers working on pro:lems of data assimilationB uncertaintiesB and the prediction capa:ilities of models in the .ims of the workshop /he workshop is organised :7 the Senate 6ommission on Water .?oWa< of the &erman . B7 data assimilationB we mean the integration of measurement data into models with which s7stem anal7sis and predictions should :e made.esearch 2oundation .water-related< fields of h7drolog7B h7drogeolog7B aCuatic ecolog7 and meteorolog7 to participate in this interdisciplinar7 workshop.luene:urg. .esearch .l:e near A'ne:urg . 8f measurement data and models are com:inedB uncertainties in the data as well as in the models need to :e considered and Cuantified.ims of the workshop • Bringing together 7oung postdocs and doctoral candidates in the final stage of their thesis work on 0arious water-related areas • Broadening the horiDon of participants :7 learning a:out methods from neigh:oring disciplines • %ro0iding a forum for the de0elopment of further interdisciplinar7 research topics and pro-ect initiati0es /he ri0er . 8f a model can reproduce dataB we assume that it can also predict processes. /he general intention of the workshop is to de0elop new ideas for interdisciplinar7 research pro-ects where the approaches and methods of the disciplines will :e e3changed and com:ined.de Back to contents # of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation . 8n some disciplinesB such as meteorolog7B for e3ampleB scientists attempt to o:-ectif7 the integration of data into models.from www.dfg-wasserkommission. 8n the workshopB methods from 0arious disciplines for integrating data into models and Cuantif7ing the pertaining uncertainties will :e discussed.

5th "ctober )**+ +):++ E +):"+ +):"+ E 1+:++ 1+:++ E 1+:"+ ?e7note lecture *eteorolog7: Dr. Dr. 2eli3 Ament Discussion ?e7note lecture 57drogeolog7: %rof.colog7: %rof. Dr. Dr. Dietrich BorchardtB spokesman of the ?oWa workgroupB presentation of ?oWa and the aims of this workshop 8ce :reaker 4uesda!.eichertB D':endorfB SwitDerland 6hair: Dr. ?arsten . 5elge Bormann Discussion 6offee :reak %oster session 88 *eeting of disciplinar7 workgroups Dinner Short presentation of the disciplinar7 workgroupsG results Arrangement of the interdisciplinar7 workgroups 1+:"+ E 11:++ 11:++ E 11:4+ 11:4+ E 1!:4+ 1!:4+ E 14:4+ 14:4+ E 1":1+ 1":1+ E 1":4+ 1":4+ E 1#:1+ 1#:1+ E 1#:4+ 1#:4+ E 1>:++ 1>:++ E 1$:++ 1$:++ E 1 :4+ 1):++ E !+:4+ !+:4+ E http://www.dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents > of . #th "ctober )**+ 1 :++ !+:++ Arri0al and mounting of posters Welcome address :7 %rof.inke Discussion ?e7note lecture 57drolog7: %rof. Dr. Anke 5ilde:randt Discussion 6offee :reak %oster session 8 Aunch ?e7note lecture ACuatic .eadingB F? 6hair: Dr.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation 0rogramme 3onda!. *atthias DruschB . &'nter Bl(schlB WienB Austria 6hair: Dr. %eter . S-oerd 0an der 1eeB WageningenB /he @etherlands 6hair: Dr.

de< http://www. Fte We:erB D2& .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Wednesda! (*th "ctober )**+ ):++ E 1+:1# 1+:1# E 1+:"# 1+:"# E 1!:++ 2irst meeting of the interdisciplinar7 workgroups 6offee :reak 2unding opportunities Dr.*=lDer Brau.3perience of the .und /afelhaus< 1!:++ E 14:++ 14:++ E 1#:++ 1#:++ E 1#:4+ 1#:4+ E 1 :4+ 1):++ E !+:++ !+:++ 4hursda! ((th "ctober )**+ ):++ E 11:++ Locations: *ain room: %lenarsaal 1-! Additional rooms for workgroups /uesda7B )th Hcto:er: ?onferenDraum Bad BollB &ruppenraum $B %almengarten Additional rooms for workgroups Wednesda7B 1+th Hcto:er: Seminarraum 4B %lenarsaal 4 2inal discussion and feed:ack *arket %lace in A'ne:urg .ffecti0e Soil %arameters for 8nfiltration %rocessesGB Fni0ersit=t Stuttgart Aunch 6ontinued meeting of the interdisciplinar7 workgroups 6offee :reak %resentations of the results of the interdisciplinar7 workgroups Dinner %resentation of the results of the interdisciplinar7 workgroups . 8nsa @euweilerB &roup G.optional< *eeting in a pu: in A'ne:urg .www.luene:urg.de Back to contents $ of .mm7-@oether %rogramme of the D2& Dr.dfg-wasserkommission.

cos7stem Anal7sis and *anagement 0rof6 Dr6 36 9senbeck:Schr.n0ironmental .uprechts-?arls-Fni0ersit=t 5eidel:erg 8nstitute of .esearch E F21B AeipDig Department 6omputational 57dros7stems "ffice of the D= :Senate /ommission on Water <esearch $.ter .6:"6 <othhaupt Fni0ersit=t ?onstanD Aimnological 8nstitute 0rof6 Dr6 /6 Simmer Fni0ersit=t Bonn *eteorological 8nstitute 0rof6 Dr6 Sabine .esearch E F21B *agde:urg 6hair for .oWa& Dr6:9ng S6 3anthe! 8nstitut f'r Wasser:au Fni0ersit=t Stuttgart %faffenwaldring >1 $+#>) Stuttgart /el.n0ironmental /echnische Fni0ersit=t Dresden .n0ironmental *anagement Department ACuatic .de erman <esearch =oundation Deutsche =orschungsgemeinschaft $D= & Dr6 >6 Weber D2&-&esch=ftsstelle ?enned7allee "+ #41$# Bonn http://www.dfg-wasserkommission.n0ironmental &eochemistr7 0rof6 Dr6 36 Sauter Fni0ersit=t &(ttingen Applied &eolog7 0rof6 Dr6 06 Werner /echnische Fni0ersit=t Dresden 8nstitute for Waste *anagement and 6ontaminated Site /reatment 0rof6 Dr6 .ttinger 5elmholtD-6entre for .: I") $11 > # >++$> 2a3: I") $11 > # >+"4+ email: sa:ine.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation "rgani1ing /ommittee 0rof6 Dr6 D6 7orchardt 0rof6 Dr6 86 ünther 5elmholtD-6entre for .uni-stuttgart.manthe7Jiws.de Back to contents of .

de 3?l1er 7rau: und 4afelhaus 5eiligengeiststraKe "4 !144# A'ne:urg Back to contents http://www.+"141< $14-+ 2a3: . 4 !144# A'ne:urg /el.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Workshop 2enues Seminaris Hotel Lüneburg Soltauer Str.+"141< $14-$!$ luene:urgJseminaris.dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents ) of .: .

tuwien.schl <esearch interests • 57drolog7 and ri0er :asin management • Spatiall7 distri:uted modelling and simulationB the issue of scale and scalingB and estimation in the a:sence of data • Design of flood estimation for h7draulic structuresB h7drological forecasts and flood risk 8ducation 1) # Diploma in 6i0il .de Back to contents 1+ of .ac.mail: :loeschlJh7dro.esearch Assistant 1))$ Associate %rofessor at the Lienna Fni0ersit7 of /echnolog7 http://www.at ünter 7l.: I"4-1-# +1-!!41# 2a3: I"4-1-# +1-!!4)) .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation 0rof6 Dr6techn6 ke7note speaker 57drolog7 8nstitut f'r Wasser:au und 8ngenieurh7drologie Lienna Fni0ersit7 of /echnolog7 ?arlsplatD 14/!!! A-1+"+ Wien Austria /el.ngineering 1))+ Doctorate in 57drolog7 1))$ 5a:ilitation in 57drolog7 at the Lienna Fni0ersit7 of /echnolog7 1) # E 1))$ .dfg-wasserkommission.

.: O57perspektrale Satellitendaten Anal7se ':er Aando:erfl=chen Dur Anwendung in der ?limamodellierungP .&! )AM F? e-mail: m. • @umerical Weather %rediction and h7drological applications. 8ducation @ 0rofessional 8Aperience 1+ / !++! E now 6onsultant in the Data Assimilation SectionB .dfg-wasserkommission. • Data assimilation and surface anal7ses.esearch ScientistB 8nstitute for *arine Sciences at ?iel Fni0ersit7 Diploma in *eteorolo7 .eading . 6i0il .emote sensing of the earthGs surface and radiati0e transfer modelling.%rof. 6. SimmerB O2ernerkundung 0on Aando:erfl=chen mit multispektralen SatellitendatenP< .esearch AssociateB *eteorological 8nstituteB Fni0ersit7 of Bonn 6A8WA@et .de Back to contents 11 of .ngineeringB %rinceton Fni0ersit7 .?A8*.+# / !+++ 1+ / 1))+ .%rof. . . Dr.uropean 6entre for *edium-range Weather 2orecasts +> / !++1 .uprechtBOLergleich Dwischen der optischen Dicke aus 8S66% 61 Daten und dem 2l'ssigwassergehalt aus SS*/8 *essungenP< 1))>-1)) 1))"-1))> *a7 1))" http://www.+" / 1))" 9une 1)) .int <esearch 9nterests • .esearch AssociateB Dept. Dr.1! / !++"N %rincipal 8n0estigator / %ro-ect *anagerB *eteorological 8nstituteB Fni0ersit7 of BonnB &erman 6limate .Non secondment from 1+ / !++!< +> / !+++ .+# / !++1 +) / 1)) .6*W2 Shinfield %ark .esearch %rogramm D..esearch ScientistB *eteorological 8nstitute at the Fni0ersit7 of Bonn .F-2%#< .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 3atthias Drusch ?e7note speaker *eteorolog7 Data Assimilation Section .druschJecmwf..esearch StudentB 8nstitute for *arine SciencesB ?iel Fni0ersit7 %hD / %romotion *eteorological 8nstitute at the Fni0ersit7 of Bonn .

.. Application to data from ri0ers ./5<B 1'richB SwitDerland. 1))#: 5a:ilitation in en0ironmental s7stems anal7sis at the Department of .ri0er water Cualit7 modeling files<B lakes .. AQFAS8*B F@6S8* < 8ducation 1) 1: *.S8A*< Swiss 2ederal 8nstitute of ACuatic Science and /echnolog7 .+)! 1'rich SwitDerland <esearch 9nterests • • • 8dentification of models for technical and natural aCuatic s7stems using methods of s7stems anal7sis. 1) #: %h.reichertJeawag.de Back to contents 1! of .lake water Cualit7 modeling files<B lake sedimentsB :iofilmsB sewage treatment plantsB soil columns and la:orator7 reactors.>++ D':endorf SwitDerland /el I"1 "" !4 #! 1 2a3 I"1 "" !4 #4$# peter.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation 0rof6 Dr6 0eter <eichert ke7note speaker ACuatic .literatureB dataB output of more detailed modelsB e3pert opinions< in the form of pro:a:ilit7 network models. in theoretical solid state ph7sicsB Fni0ersit7 of BaselB BaselB SwitDerland.Sc. Assessment of the identifia:ilit7 of model parameters and the uncertaint7 of model predictions using freCuentist and Ba7esian techniCues.ch %rofessor at: Department of .n0ironmental Sciences Swiss 2ederal 8nstitute of /echnolog7 . Fse of such models to support en0ironmental decision making.dfg-wasserkommission.awag< %H Bo3 >11 65 . 8ntegration of knowledge from 0arious sources .D.colog7 Department of S7stems Anal7sisB 8ntegrated Assessment and *odeling ./5< 65 . in theoretical ph7sicsB Fni0ersit7 of BaselB BaselB SwitDerland. http://www.n0ironmental SciencesB Swiss 2ederal 8nstitute of /echnolog7 . Design and implementation of software that supports en0ironmental scientists in model:ased e0aluation of their data .

nl <esearch interests • 5eterogeneit7B spatial 0aria:ilit7B and scale pro:lems in soil pollution research.0ander1eeJwur.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation 0rof6 dr6ir6 SBoerd 86.present 2ull professor 0rofessional eAperience 1) 1 . • Biological a0aila:ilit7 of contaminants and nutrients for plants and other organisms.%ersonal /itle< for Soil %ollution and Soil %rotection at the chair of Soil 6hemistr7 and 6hemical Soil Qualit7 since !++# 2ull professor Soil %h7sicsB .de Back to contents 14 of .1) " %ermanent positionB pro-ect leader soil and groundwater 1) " .: I41 41$ " ! $# 2a3: I41 41$-" " # email: S-oerd.1) " &rondmechanica DelftB Delft 1) 1 . Scientic education 1) Doctoral degree at Wageningen Fni0ersiteitBWageningen 1) . • *ultiphase fow and nonlinear :iogeochemical interaction affecting transport.1))! FD / Assistant professor at Wageningen Fni0ersiteit 1))! .64636 %an der Cee ke7note speaker 57drogeolog7 Wageningen Fni0ersit7 Soil ph7sicsB ecoh7drolog7 and groundwater management group Droe0endaalse steeg " Building A/AAS num:er 1+" >$++ AA Wageningen /he @etherlands /el.!++# %rofessor .coh7drolog7B and &roundwater *anagement http://www. • *athematical and stochastic approaches to deal with flow and transport and their uncertaintiesB for natural porous media. • Aong term effects of soil management.1)) F5D / Associate professor 1)) .present Wageningen Fni0ersiteitBWageningen 1)) .dfg-wasserkommission.1) 4 %ro-ect leader contaminant transport modelling 1) 4 .

#n$0Sur(#ce /eterogeneity in # !on0 /y$rost#tic !u"eric#l <e#ther Pre$iction Mo$el. /he second part is http://www.www.eco"e -uniorpro(essor #t the Meteorologic#l . )/05066. Meteorology Curr. University o( /#".uehlstr#sse 45.ment Dr. 7urich. 3r#eh. veri(ic#tion. Current a!!ress MeteoSch*ei2.bstract 3. Bo1 416.d-phase. 2006 .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 =eliA . +ppointe$ to .ch "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: Ament' F.serv#tions (#ssi"il#tion.dfg-wasserkommission. S*it2erl#n$.S8 proBectD Demonstration of toda!Es capabilities to predict alpine flood e%ents b! atmospheric and h!drological models .e!words: flood forecastingB precipitation forecastB uncertaint7 /he aim of the forecast demonstration pro-ect *A% D-%5AS.D.0 D:0H.nstitute. Position: Scientist in the group !u"eric#l Mo$els% #t the &e$er#l '((ice o( Meteorology #n$ )li"#tology MeteoS*iss.#"ent8"eteos*iss.Q%2< performance. 14=((. Additionall7B all rele0ant model fields of these simulations are stored in a central data archi0e.1(1(1). /he first part of the poster will gi0e an o0er0iew of the D-%5AS. Si""er9 . represent#tion o( the hy$rologic#l cycle in #t"ospheric "o$els. Meteorology (Univ.de Back to contents 1" of . /his comprehensi0e data set allows a detailed assessment of toda7Ss Cuantitati0e precipitation forecast . "o$el $evolp"ent) Moti ation huge o0erlap with m7 research interestsR interested to learn new techniCuesB 0iewpoints or CuestionsR gathering scientific and funding ideas to esta:lish a new group de0oted to the com:ination of o:ser0ations and model data at the Fni0ersit7 of 5am:urg in !++ . Bonn. (eli1. Felix Ament *1975 Degree: Dipl. /he D-%5AS. Meteorology (Univ. %art of this s7stem are more than !+ numerical weather prediction models operated :7 weather ser0ices and research institutesB which issue alerts if forecasted precipitation accumulations e3ceed critical thresholds.'. Boundary-Layer Meteorology. inter(#ce .urg Research interests: l#n$0#t"osphere e1ch#nge. /herefore an end-to-endB real-time forecasting s7stem has :een installed and is operated during the demonstration phase from 9une until @o0em:er !++$ . s7stem: its components the interfaces and the new concepts to pro0ide useful information to end-users. Some h7drological models are operated as ensem:le s7stem :7 performing indi0idual simulations for each mem:er of an atmospheric ensem:le s7stem. s7stem is completed :7 a wealth of local h7drological models using the precipitation forecasts as forcing data. Bonn.info<.. P. #n$ ). /his techniCue allows stud7ing the propagation of uncertainties from precipitation forecast to discharge simulations."prove$ :epresent#tion o( . is to demonstrate the performance of toda7Ss models to forecast hea07 precipitation e0ents and floods in the Alpine region. Ph.et*een "o$els #n$ o. 2001). 2006).

e. warning regions in SwitDerland.dfg-wasserkommission.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation attri:uted to first results: /he o0erall Q%2 performance is assessed :7 a 0erification against Swiss .g.see 2ig. http://www.thick :lack< in comparison to deterministic model predictions for two ad-acent D-%5AS. 1<. Both e3ercises clearl7 re0eal the great uncertaint7 in Cuantitati0e aspects of Q%2 and that it might :e 0er7 dangerous to rel7 on a single deterministic forecasting s7stem .de Back to contents 1# of . @ote that models :eing accurate in one region . 6HS*H65$ . =igure (D Accumulated precipitation o:ser0ations :7 radar .adar data :oth from a Cualitati0e point of 0iewB in terms of alertsB as well as from a Cuantitati0e perspecti0eB in terms of precipitation rate.7ellow<< do not necessaril7 perform well in the other one.thick :lue< and 8SA6*HA . /his anal7sis is refined and e3tended considering h7drological models for a se0ere flood e0ent from > until August !++$.

de Back to contents 1> of .dfg-wasserkommission.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

2D%< D-%5AS.Q%2< ha0e high priorit7 in meteorological research.2 2orecast Demonstration %ro-ect .Wulfme7er et al.< s!stem 5. /hereforeB a new operator to assimilate &%S slant path dela7s was de0eloped.!+++ !+++ .de Back to contents 1$ of .Q%2< :7 focusing on the de0elopment of new and the e3tension of e3isting forward operators for the assimilation of additional t7pes of o:ser0ations into the **# "DLA. /he limited a0aila:ilit7 and accurac7 of o:ser0ational data needed as initial and :oundar7 conditions for running numerical weather prediction .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr. /his is particularl7 challenging in the warm season where con0ecti0e precipitation is more important.&rDeschik et al.-mail: hs:auerJuni-hohenheim.bstract . . 5ereB the e3isting radiosonde operator was generaliDed and com:ined with an o:ser0ation pre-processor to :e a:le to assimilate data of the air:orne water 0apour D8AA s7stem AAS.&%S< atmospheric remote sensingB ground:ased &%S recei0ers ha0e :ecome an important instrument that can pro0ide high resolution water 0apour measurements operationall7 at low cost with an accurac7 of a few millimetres in all weather conditions. 5ans-Stefan Bauer *eteorolog7 /urrent affiliationD 8nstitute of %h7sics and *eteorolog7 Fni0ersit7 of 5ohenheim &ar:enstrasse 4+B $+#)) StuttgartB &erman7 phone: I") $11 "#) !1#" . 5owe0erB the short-term precipitation forecast of strong local precipitation e0ents is still of 0er7 low Cualit7. Behrendt 8nstitute of %h7sics and *eteorolog7B Fni0ersit7 of 5ohenheimB &ar:enstrasse 4+B $+#)) Stuttgart %recipitation strongl7 affects man7 aspects of our econom7 and general li0elihood. Wulfme7er and A.@W%< models is considered as one of the most critical deficiencies in Q%2. .% .ssimilation of high resolution water %apour obser%ations into the 33F GD2.B !++$<.0ents in the Alpine .Demonstration of %ro:a:ilistic 57drological and Atmospheric Simulation of 2lood .!++1 %hD student *a3 %lanck 8nstitute for *eteorolog7 / 5am:urg Scientist at the *a3 %lanck 8nstitute for *eteorolog7 / 5am:urg . We are intending to make a significant contri:ution to Cuantitati0e precipitation forecasting . With recent ad0ances in &lo:al %ositioning S7stem .egion<.B !++><B as well as data of ground-:ased . 1usB L. http://www.-S. .ecent results in nowcasting and short-range weather forecasting clearl7 demonstrate that 0ariational data assimilation in com:ination with high-resolution modelling is essential for optimising the Cualit7 of Q%2 on the mesoscale.esearch and De0elopment %ro-ect 6H%S .dfg-wasserkommission. %articularl7B it is crucial to determine the initial state of the model with respect to d7namics and water in all its phases as accurate as possi:le.de /2 1))> .6on0ecti0e and Hrographicall7-induced %recipitation Stud7< and the WW. /hereforeB efforts to impro0e Cuantitati0e precipitation forecasting . &rDeschikB 2. BauerB *. At the momentB it is in operational use in a real-time assimilation s7stem during the WW. s7stem.aman lidar s7stems . /he reasons for this are manifold and include inaccuracies in parameteriDation schemesB se0ere gaps and faults of o:ser0ations of the pre-con0ecti0e en0ironmentB and an insufficient resolution of the forecast models.

-S BauerB *.iedeB !++$: 2our-dimensional 0ariational anal7sis of water-0apor .<:/"-4<"L of the specific humidit! HgIkgJ $top row& and temperature H. BehrendtB 2. WandingerB 8. *on.B 5. . =igure (D Difference GD2. As an e3ampleB 2igures 1 shows the impact of the assimilation of &%S slant path data on the specific humidit7 and temperature fields at #+ h%a for two different time steps from the forecast initialiDed at ++1B !$th of 9une !++$.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation /his contri:ution shall gi0e an o0er0iew a:out the assimilation efforts done so far in 5ohenheim as well as an outlook to planned future acti0ities. BrowellB S. http://www. Accepted. 8smailB and . Wulfme7erB D.ngelmannB *.J $bottom row& at #F* h0a for the initial time )**+*K)+ **C $left& and () hours later $right&6 8t is clearl7 seenB that the assimilation of &%S data has a large-scale impact on :oth fieldsB although onl7 water 0apour data was assimilated. /he first case stud7 within 85H% !++!. BauerB L. .ngel:artB F.. . *athisB D. &rDeschikB A.aman lidar data and their impact on mesoscale forecasts.dfg-wasserkommission.. .e0. Landen:ergheB . .. 5. Wulfme7erB L. Wea. 2errareB !++>: "-dimensional 0ariational assimilation of water 0apor differential a:sorpion lidar data. Hceanic /echnol. 9.B 14"B 1B !+)-!4+. Atmos.-S. AlthausenB .de Back to contents 1 of .eferences: &rDeschikB *. /escheB and A.

=. B#uer. (+pplie$ >eology. >rone*ol$. environ"ent#l #ssess"ent o( recycling "#teri#ls. (2006)9 +ssessing "e#sure"ent uncert#inty o( (irst0or$er $egr#$#tion r#tes in heterogeneous #Jui(ers. 1-. 2002).bstract >sing 2irtual . *eyer' C. <. University of 3iel. '. S. ).e. :es.. S. =D2006. '. DuiGnisvel$. 3ol$it2..' )hen.. ?. . 7 07! Tübingen" c#ristof..ute #n$ p#rticip#te in #n e1ch#nge #n$ $iscussion o( these concepts Current a!!ress: +nge*#n$te >eologie D >eohy$ro"o$ellierung..ng*ersen. B#uer.' B#uer.. -. in heads or http://www.eyer8gp#. University of Tübingen.M. 3ol$it2. -.beyer$%ni&t%ebingen. Position: Post$oc. .ength Ksti"#tes in /eterogeneous +Jui(ers.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 rer6 nat6 /hristof 7e!er Dr. -. (2006)9 Iirtueller +Jui(er (I+) 0 )o"putergest@t2te Be*ertung von KrCun$ungs0..u$e*ig0Meyn0Str.ingen. stoch#stic "o$elling B uncert#inty prop#g#tion. (2006)9 :Hu"liche I#ri#. geost#tistics B region#lis#tion Moti ation: to get in cont#ct *ith colle#gues #n$ scientists (ro" neigh.out ho* to #$$ress issues o( integr#ting $#t# (ro" $iverse sources into "o$els #n$ on ne* str#tegies or "etho$s to t#cCle $#t# or "o$el uncert#inty #n$ to contri.. ).. 3ol$it2. .pplication to degradation rate estimation 6hristof Be7er B 9an &ronewold B 6ui 6hen B Hlaf ?olditD B Se:astian Bauer 1 Center for Applied Geoscience. '. Ph. 10 D 26115 3iel.y!rogeology Curr. 0. S#nierungs0 un$ Monitoringstr#tegien i" /in. Due to the limited accessi:ilit7 of the su:surfaceB measurements of pollutant concentrations at contaminated sites usuall7 are sparse and ma7 not :e representati0e of the heterogeneous h7drogeologic or geochemical conditions. Dres$en. *eyer' C. S.. )hristi#n +l. AA60A54. Christo) *eyer *197+ Degree: >eoecologist (Diplo"#./10 1eip)ig / 2nstit%te for Geosciences. S. (2006)9 Uncert#inty +ssess"ent o( )ont#"in#nt Plu"e .' +lt(el$er.de Back to contents 1) of . -. ?el. e"#il9 christo(. )ont#".er(oserstr.nstitute (or +pplie$ >eology. *eyer' C.' B#uer.ouring $isciplines.. (200A)9 Deter"in#tion o( (irst or$er $egr#$#tion r#te const#nts (or *ell investig#te$ cont#"in#nt plu"es. *eyer' C.I.' 3ol$it2. 2006..rechts University o( 3iel Research interests: "ulti0ph#se (lo* B re#ctive tr#nsport "o$eling in heterogeneous "e$i#. . ..dfg-wasserkommission.ilitHt un$ st#tistische Unsicherheit i" 3onte1t $er (lHchenh#(ten Ierl#gerung von Sch#$sto((en "it $e" SicCer*#sser.licC #u( $#s L!#tur#l +ttenu#tionL (!+) un$ LKnh#nce$ !#tur#l +ttenu#tionL (K!+) 0Poten2i#l Cont#"inierter BM$en un$ >run$*Hsser. E6F (0)6=1 550 254A.110 3iel 1 1 1 ! 4 . A=0F4.. ?U Br#unsch*eig. >rone*ol$. <#ter :esour. to le#rn "ore #.g. 10. )hen. S.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: *eyer' C. Bo$enschut2. 200A) . Sigwartstr. /y$rol.e!wordsD 5eterogeneit7B site in0estigationB degradation rateB uncertaint7B numerical modelling. F20F5.Luifers for uncertaint! assessment of site in%estigation strategiesD .D. <01620. >eohy$ro"o$eling. >roun$ <#ter 64(6). F=011=.. . 62. University o( ?@./. 10.n9 Mitteilungen $es D>&7 e. 5A.de 'el(#olt) Centre for *nviron(ental +esearc#. As a resultB an7 site in0estigation is su:-ect to uncertaint7B for which three main sources can :e identified: incomplete or wrong description of parameter distri:utions due to site heterogeneit7B measurement errors . StrecC. '. 1%dewig&4eyn&Str.uni0Ciel. .

/he LA application thus demonstrates the importance :ut also the pitfalls of a careful and accurate collection of in0estigation dataB if these are to :e used for a model prognosis of contaminant :eha0iour at a site or for comparing and optimiDing alternati0es of remediation measures.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation concentrations<B and conceptual model errors from an incorrect identification of the go0erning processes.A< show that the PtrueT rate constant . Data scarcit7 and parameter uncertaint7 due to the heterogeneit7 of en0ironmental s7stems rather than general s7stem comprehension or the a0aila:ilit7 of ad0anced process :ased numerical models is a ma-or pro:lem also in other applied geoscientific disciplines .i. Due to this uncertaint7B field in0estigation methods can hardl7 :e 0erified in the field. 2or wider plumes from larger source Dones o0erestimation decreasesB :ut still is significant. 5ere a transfer of the LA concept ma7 :e possi:le and could help in getting a :etter understanding of the conseCuences of en0ironmental s7stems management on :asis of imprecise or uncertain data. /he Lirtual ACuifer .B< is compara:le to or at :est slightl7 less than for .g. Lirtual< aCuifers. :7 setting up o:ser0ation well networks. 2or small source widths o0erestimation with the !D model . /he general o0erestimation is mainl7 due to three factors: i< de0iations of o:ser0ation well positions from the true plume center lineB ii< :iased estimates of the mean transport 0elocit7 and iii< wrong parameteriDation of dispersi0it7.esults for .g.used for the numerical simulation of the plumes< in general tends to :e o0erestimated :7 the 1D anal7tical center line models. 2or wider plumesB howe0erB incorporation of all o:ser0ation wells in the estimation procedure 7ields significantl7 closer estimates of the degradation rate constant than for . http://www. surface h7drolog7B climatolog7B geothermic reser0oir engineering<.0irtual crash test< or medicine . H0erestimation of the degradation rate is a nonconser0ati0e result and thus a critical point if natural attenuation is considered as an remediation alternati0eB as the o0erall attenuation potential is assessed too positi0e.e. S7nthetic site models :ased on statistical properties of natural aCuifers are generated :7 numerical simulation of contaminant spreading in groundwater. /he :asic idea is the computer :ased e0aluation of the performance of field in0estigation methods :7 application in heterogeneous s7nthetic . /he LA concept is demonstrated :7 stud7ing the uncertaint7 in field scale contaminant degradation rate constants estimated from measured field data: *ultiple realiDations of contaminant plumes under conditions of :iodegradation in heterogeneous aCuifers were indi0iduall7 and independentl7 in0estigated in the computer :7 indi0idual test persons engaged in h7drogeological research or consulting using an interacti0e plume in0estigation and mapping software.e.A< on a0erage. As the sum of these possi:ilities can neither :e pro0ided :7 large scale field e3periments nor in the la:orator7B the LA concept can :e considered a 0alua:le contri:ution complementing state of the art e3perimental methods.de Back to contents !+ of .B< a two-dimensional modelB which uses all measurements a0aila:le downgradient from the contaminant source.dfg-wasserkommission.e. in car industr7 . . 8n0estigation of the plumes was achie0ed :7 installation of e3tensi0e networks of o:ser0ation wells and interpolation of measured concentrations to identif7 the geometr7 and position of the plumes.LA< approach is particularl7 aimed at in0estigating this pro:lem. /he uniCue ad0antage of the LA is that the PtrueT spatial distri:ution of the contamination and all ph7sical or geochemical parameters is e3actl7 knownB which allows to e0aluate the accurac7 of the in0estigation methods used :7 comparison of their results to the PtrueT parameter distri:ution. 9ust like for a Preal worldT siteB the s7nthetic contamination can :e in0estigatedB e. 8n this it resem:les the concept of P0irtual realitiesT which is used e. 5enceB this approach should prefera:l7 :e used for rate constant estimation.A<.interacti0e operation planning<. 2rom the data measured at the wellsB i.g.A< three different one-dimensional anal7tical modelsB which onl7 use measurements located on the presumed plume center lineB and . H0erestimation is strongest for narrow plumes from small source Dones and ma7 reach factors as high as #+ in the worst cases. 6ontaminant concentrationsB h7draulic conducti0ities and headsB first order degradation rate constants were estimated :7 . /he main ad0antage of the LA isB that indi0idual factorsB such as site heterogeneit7 or conceptual model errors can :e studied in detail at low costsB either indi0iduall7 or in com:inationB and under controlled conditions.

de Back to contents !1 of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.dfg-wasserkommission.

+. 145 S.)9 :isiCo"#n#ge"ent e1tre"er hy$rologischer Kreignisse.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: *ormann. Univ. NMr@C.les (@r $ie Si"ul#tion von /och*#sserereignissen. B#n$ 2. http://www. Steph#n.. B. /. 5A0F5.ility o( the >er"#n soil te1ture cl#ssi(ic#tion (or the region#l sc#le #pplic#tion o( physic#l . /. . B.ert. (or /y$rology. B DieCCr@ger.. 6=065. B <ille"s. e1ch#nge o( techniJues #n$ "etho$s .nstitute (or Biology #n$ Knviron"ent#l Sciences. co#st#l hy$rology Moti ation: $isciplin#ry #s *ell #s inter$isciplin#ry rese#rch.. "o$el ense". hy$rologic#l "o$elling. -. *ormann. -. -.+. environ"ent#l ch#nge (cli"#te... Curr. Breuer. >eogr#phy (Dr.. *ormann. .y ense". +. DieCCr@ger (/rsg. B 7i""er"#nn.#nini. 2F4.erger.urg ?el. <irtsch#(t un$ 3li"#(olge(orschung.urg. Iiney. <orCshops L<#sser0 un$ Sto((tr#nsportes in groPen Kin2ugsge. uncert#inty #n#lysis.. (200A)9 +n#lysing the e((ects o( soil properties ch#nges #ssoci#te$ *ith l#n$ use ch#nges on the si"ul#te$ *#ter . DieCCr@ger. . Kcologic#l Mo$elling.rechts. B ). /.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 Helge 7ormann -un. Uhlhorns*eg 56."p#ct o( sp#ti#l $#t# resolution on si"ul#te$ c#tch"ent *#ter . &oru" $er /y$rologie un$ <#sser*irtsch#(t. *ormann. rer. 2F060. 3ite.l.#l#nces #n$ "o$el per(or"#nce o( the "ulti0sc#le ?'P. P. . "o$el co"p#rison.n DrucC. >iert2. ?. (2004)9 /y$rologic#l c#tch"ent "o$els . .esserung $er PrognoseJu#litHt hy$rologischer Mo$elle $urch $en Kins#t2 von Mo$ell0Knse".Pro).#l#nce9 + co"p#rison o( three hy$rologic#l c#tch"ent "o$els (or scen#rio #n#lysis.dfg-wasserkommission. !.n9 Disse. )roCe. >.elge *ormann *19/7 Degree: Dipl. /. hu"#n i"p#cts).y!rology . >eoecology (?U Br#unsch*eig. (2004)9 Kv#lu#tion o( hy$rologic#l "o$els (or scen#rio #n#lyses9 Sign#l0to0noise0 r#tio . Dr. . B B.. /. IortrHge 2.et*een scen#rio e((ects #n$ "o$el uncert#inty. (uture cooper#tion #n$ proGect initi#tives.. >ucCen. /. K"#il9 helge. *ormann.+?S "o$el. >. S9 560F=. P#Cosch. 3#ssel University Press.ility (or *#ter "#n#ge"ent 0 c#se stu$y (or Benin. E6F 6610AF5 664F.. . sc#ling.. 3.urg.. M. .nstitute (or Biology #n$ Knviron"ent#l Sciences Research interests: c#tch"ent hy$rology. ?. >.+/S Pu. /. .ietenL in >iePen... (200A)9 :e$uction o( pre$ictive uncert#inty . 1FF4). +. Bonn 1FFF)./uis"#n. >rH((. 11..D. 4... (2006)9 Ier. <orCshop 2ur /y$rologischen Mo$ellierung.0Pro(.e#vesley. *ormann.les.. -. /. n#t.:. *ormann. Breuer. 3#ssel University Press.#se$ hy$rologic#l "o$el. 10.06. 2102F.../P ?echnic#l Docu"ents in /y$rology. 20F (1). Position: -un. /e(t 14. 16401AF. S. .. (/rsg. S. B /uis"#n.<. *ormann. >rH((. . /. (2006)9 . $#t# #v#il#. S.. D02612F 'l$en. University o( 'l$en.de Back to contents !! of .)(2002)9 4. :enschler (1FFF)9 :egion#le Si"ul#tionen in $er /y$rologie 0 Ou#nti(iC#tion $er &ehler un$ $er Unsicherheiten.le hy$rologic#l "o$elling o( $isch#rge #n$ l#n$ use ch#nge e((ects. /u. +$v#nces in >eosciences. l#n$sc#pe "#n#ge"ent Current a!!ress9 University 'l$en. A01=. MMglichCeiten un$ >ren2en (@r $en Kins#t2 hy$rologische Mo$elle in PolitiC. /y$rology #n$ K#rth Syste" Sciences. (200A)9 +n#lysis o( the suit#. Sei.or"#nn8uni0ol$en. 7us#""enstellung $er BeitrHge $es 2. .et*een process represent#tion.in$strM". B.ility #n$ #pplic#. l#n$ use.. Ph.urg..et*een $i((erent rese#rch (iel$s (le#rning (ro" e#ch other). /y$rology <orCing >roup. S. +$v#nces in >eosciences.. 3. *ormann.

B #5u:rechtsB A..B 1!WillemsB %.*SB SAF.W.B /H%AA/SB WAS8*-. Despite the disparit7 in model performanceB ensem:le predictions made up of 0arious com:inations of the ten model predictions outperform all of the indi0idual models../5B SWA/B %. /he two mentioned ensem:les are simple ensem:les as others represent optimiDed com:inations of all .B "&r=ffB /. ! Fni0ersit7 of &ieKenB 8nstitute for Aandscape .Breuer et al.digital ele0ation modelB land use classificationB soil map< and time series .M .SB /he Australian @ational Fni0ersit7B 6an:erraB A6/B AustraliaB "Fni0ersit7 of %otsdamB 8nstitute of &eoecolog7B &erman7B #Aisec @LB &enkB BelgiumB >57drologic SolutionsB %ant7mw7nB Fnited ?ingdomB $Fni0ersit7 of WashingtonB FSAB Fnited States &eological Sur0e7B Den0erB FSAB ) Swedish *eteorological and 57drological 8nstituteB @orrk(pingB SwedenB 1+ Stockholm Fni0ersit7B SwedenB 1!6S8. /he models are dri0en using the same input data sets such as spatial data sets .B )Aindstr(mB &.e! wordsD *ulti-model ensem:leB catchment h7drolog7B structural uncertaint7 .H Aand and WaterB 6an:erraB AustraliaB 14?atholieke Fni0ersiteit Aeu0enB Belgium.bstract <eduction of predicti%e uncertaint! b! ensemble h!drological modelling of catchment processes and land use change BormannB 5.esources *anagement of the Fni0ersit7 of &ieKen. W.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation .%.B Aea0esle7B &.%B 5BLB AAS6A* and 85A6.B $ AaniniB 9.>)4kmU< in central &erman7 are compared for a !+ 7ears period .B >?iteB &.B 46rokeB B.nsem:le modellingB where:7 predictions from se0eral models are pooled in an attempt to impro0e prediction accurac7B has often :een used in the climate and atmospheric sciencesB :ut until recentl7B has recei0ed little attention in h7drolog7. Different model ensem:les of all a0aila:le models are applied such as dail7 mean 0alueB dail7 median 0alue.*B predictions of ten different catchment models applied to the mesoscale Dill :asin .57drologic ensem:le prediction e3periment<.B su:mittedR 5uisman et al. /he applied models encompass a large range in inherent comple3it7 and input reCuirements..S.B !BreuerB A.. 2or the cali:ration periodB as e3pectedB an ensem:le :ased on a multi-0aria:le regression of all models pro0ides the :est predictionsB :ut its prediction accurac7 declines to a greater e3tent than all of the models in terms of :oth its :ias and @ash-Sutcliffe efficienc7 when used for the 0alidation period.dfg-wasserkommission.A. . Within AF65. 6omparing the simulated results of the indi0idual modelsB the simpler models tend to perform :etter in :oth cali:ration and 0alidation periodB :ut while all models tend to show impro0ed performance during the less e3treme 0alidation period.de Back to contents !4 of .B 1+Sei:ertB 9. Hne of the ke7 aims of the ensem:le approach is to reduce uncertaint7 in the modelled predictions.dail7 0alues of precipitation and weather data<.B su:mitted<B initiated :7 the Working &roup on .-S5. /wo recent e3amples of model ensem:les are D*8% . /his a:stract introduces the AF65. /his impro0ement is greatest for some of the more comple3 models.*-initiati0e .1) +-1)))< and used to generate ensem:le predictions of current catchment characteristics and as well as of the effects of se0eral pro-ected land use changes.or onl7 selected< models. Streamflow at the catchment outlet is used to compare simulations to o:ser0ations and to e0aluate model ensem:les 0ersus indi0idual models using statistical Cualit7 measures. 2or the 0alidation periodB the :est predictions using an ensem:le of all models are pro0ided :7 an ensem:le consisting http://www.Distri:uted model intercomparison pro-ect< and 5.B !5uismanB 9. 2urthermore spatial interpolation of rainfallB ad-ustment of temperature :7 topograph7 and plant parameters is homogenised to achie0e most compara:le model results.2. Different Cualit7 measures are applied to anal7se the results of model ensem:les and indi0idual models such as @ash-Sutcliffe efficienc7B sCuare of correlation coefficientB root mean sCuared de0iation and :ias.B su:mittedB Line7 et al. 8n appro3imate order of decreasing comple3it7B the7 are D5SL*B *8?.esources *anagementB &erman7B 4 86A*B S.B 11Line7B @.colog7 and .

Ad0 Water . Ad0 Water .esourR su:mitted.esourR su:mitted. Line7 @. Breuer AB 5uisman 9AB Willems %B Bormann 5B Bronstert AB 6roke B2WB 2rede 5-&B &r=ff /B 5u:rechts AB 9akeman A9B ?ite &B Aea0esle7 &B Aanini 9B Aettenmaier D%B Aindstr(m &B Sei:ert 9B Si0apalan *B Line7 @. Assessing the impact of land use change on h7drolog7 :7 ensem:le modeling .AF65. 5uisman 9AB Breuer AB Bormann 5B Bronstert AB 6roke B2WB 2rede 5B &r=ff /B 5u:rechts AB 9akeman A9B ?ite &WB Aanini 9B Aea0esle7 &B Aettenmaier D%B AindstrVom &B Sei:ert 9B Si0apalan *B Line7 @. 8n the case of the Dill catchmentB there was no model performing :etter than the :est model ensem:le in the Dill catchment.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation of the dail7 median model predictions. Ad0 Water .# ha and #. %redicti0e uncertaint7 of indi0idual models is reduced significantl7.+ haB respecti0el7. 2ocusing not onl7 on dail7 water flows and water :alancesB the stud7 re0eals also that the model ensem:les show the :est performance also for peak flows and for low flow periods.*< 888: Scenario anal7sis. 8n the scenariosB the pro-ected patterns of land use are :ased on assumed a0erage field siDes of +.# haB 1. /here is :road agreement among the models on the e3pected h7drological change.dfg-wasserkommission. While onl7 two models predict a significantl7 different change :etween current state of land use and the scenariosB all models predict the same trend :etween the three land use scenarios. /he predictions of this median ensem:le impro0e more :etween cali:ration and 0alidation than an7 of the other modelsB thus indicating its ro:ustness. Based on the agreement of the different models with respect to simulated land use change effectsB it seems to :e possi:le to predict :othB the direction and the magnitude of streamflow changes associated with land use change scenarios with an increased degree of confidence.*< 88: Deterministic and pro:a:ilistic ensem:le com:inations and predictions. http://www.*< 8: model intercomparison of current land use..AF65. /he successful 0alidation of the mean and median ensem:les suggests that model ensem:les can :e applied successful not onl7 in atmospheric :ut also in h7drological sciencesB namel7 with respect to the calculation of catchment water flowsB catchment water :alancesB peak flows and low flow periods.B Bormann 5B Breuer AB Bronstert AB 6roke B2WB 2rede 5-&B &r=ff /B 5u:rechts AB 5uisman 9AB 9akeman A9B ?ite &B Aea0esle7 &B Aanini 9B Aettenmaier D%B Aindstr(m &B Sei:ert 9B Si0apalan *B Willems %.B Willems %. Assessing the impact of land use change on h7drolog7 :7 ensem:le modelling .esourR su:mitted. After cali:ration and 0alidationB the models are then applied to different land use change scenarios. Assessing the impact of land use change on h7drolog7 :7 ensem:le modeling . /hose model ensem:les which were optimiDed for the cali:ration period performed worse for the 0alidation period.AF65.de Back to contents !" of .

dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents !# of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

?repte."itte$ to Physics #n$ )he"istry o( the K#rth.e*irtsch#(tung. B . +. -. Schri(tenreihe $es . Dietrich.D. <#geningen. M. . 106 'cto. (2002)9 >eologic#l :econstruction using )on$ition#l Stoch#stic Si"ul#tion (or Uncert#inty +n#lyses o( <#ter :escources M#n#ge"ent (!orth*est >er"#ny. Dietrich. -. P..nisse $er &#llstu$ie <err#. -.. I. 2000).)9 +gricultur#l K((ects on >roun$ #n$ Sur(#ce <#ters9 :ese#rch #t the K$ge o( Science #n$ Society.$e. (/rsg. <#ter :esources M#n#ge"ent #n$ Knviron"ent#l Kngineering). <eissensee0Ierl#g. +.ntegr#te$ <#ter :esource M#n#ge"ent (. /. IoP.y other young rese#rchers.+/S Pu. Dietrich. BMB& Goint rese#rch proGect Knse". B &unCe.y!rology http://www.ntegr#te$ <#ter :esources M#n#ge"ent.ehrstuhl (@r /y$rologie. Dietrich.les.$enti(ying #n$ re$ucing "o$el structure uncert#inty .. &. A.or#te$ #n ense". /.$ietrich8hy$rosCript. $ecision support "o$els #n$ syste"s (str#tegic #n$ oper#tion#l). Septe".le Pre$ictions. N. B#n$ 21. =1A. #n$ . :uhr0University Bochu". 6A0 S. :uhr0UniversitHt. .iets0 "#n#ge"ent Q Krge.. +. Position: Scienti(ic #ssist#nt. E6F02=60=20245A4. 3on2epte (@r $ie n#chh#ltige Knt*icClung einer &lussl#n$sch#(t B$. . >roth. &. My person#l interest is in in(or"#tion (usion "etho$s un$er uncert#inty.. +$v#nces in >eos0ciences Iol.ntern#tion#l )on(erence.) (2006)9 <erC2euge (@r $#s integrierte &lussge.#rer Kntschei$ungspro2esse .en#u).ntegr#te$ c#tch"ent "o$elling (or str#tegic pl#nning #n$ $ecision "#Cing9 <err# c#se stu$y. +. -.le (orec#sts in 'per#tion#l &loo$ :isC M#n#ge"ent Q Mul$e :iver B#sin%. +. .. <#ng. !o. (200A)9 . . Klsevier. 2A=. Schu"#nn.. -.$ietrich8ru. . -.ility o( Societies to <#ter :el#te$ :isCs #t the B#sin Sc#le. B P#hlo*. N.le . -.#sin pl#nning. (K$). B /#tter"#nn.)9 ?opics on Syste" +n#lysis #n$ . Su. Br#unsch*eig. (K$s. . B Schu"#nn.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: Dietrich.ntern#tion#l )on(erence on . K"#il9 Goerg. *hich co". 2006). >eoecology (?ech. Procee$ings o( the =r$ . :e$ucing the Iulner#.rg Dietrich Dr. (/rsg. -. Schu"#nn.0ng.otov. integr#te$ river . Goerg.dfg-wasserkommission. Dietrich.l.les 0 Mul$e c#se stu$y. Curr. <#ng.er 2000. -.ilistic (loo$ (orec#st using $i((erent types o( "o$el ense". Dietrich. )l#essen. (200A)9 'per#tion#l &loo$ :isC M#n#ge"ent B#se$ on Knse". &. Bochu".R" #lso intereste$ in $iscussion o( the v#rious "etho$s o( $#t# #ssi"il#tion #n$ uncert#inty #ssess"ent $evelope$ or conceptu#li2e$ .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6:9ng6 M. (loo$ risC "#n#ge"ent Moti ation: My *orCing group h#s el#. (2006)9 <orC(lo* oriente$ p#rticip#tory $ecision support (or integr#te$ river . Univ..+/S Pu. IoP.. proGect coor$in#tor.nstitute o( /y$rology. B Soncini Sess#.#... M.. &. o((er to sh#re the e1periences g#ine$ in this *orC *ith others.#sin "#n#ge"ent. <#sser*irtsch#(t un$ U"*elttechniC. SchMniger. <#sser*irtsch#(t un$ U"*elttechniC (. 11. )ivil Kngineering (:uhr0Univ. Dietrich. ?el.n9 Steenvoor$en.ei $er integrierten &lussge. Schu"#nn et #l. ?he !etherl#n$s. Bochu"..ines "eteorologic#l #n$ hy$rologic#l ense". . B /esser. -. Research interests: hy$rologic#l "o$elling."itte$ to !online#r Processes in >eophysics.ehrstuhls (@r /y$rologie. IoP.#se$ (loo$ (orec#st str#tegy. (200A)9 Pro..n9 )#stelletti. :.er 2006. -1rg Dietrich *1972 Degree: Ph. Procee$ings o( #n . &. 2ugleich Dissert#tion :uhr0UniversitHt Bochu". Current a!!ress9 . &.ie.n9 +.de Back to contents !> of . Berlin. M. +. 66A50 Bochu".l. Su. inclu$ing in(or"#tion (ro" $i((erent sources.<:M). B <ille"s. B Schu"#nn.iets. S. Dipl.#se$ on #n#lysis o( p#r#"eter inter#ction. (200A)9 . (2006)9 Knt*icClung einer Metho$iC 2ur syste"#n#lytischen Unterst@t2ung #$#ptier.

As a case stud7 we present flood forecasts for the August !++! e3treme flood e0ent and a false alarm in August !++>B where a flood of similar se0erit7 had :een forecasted. Yan Wang .nsem:le flood forecasts aim at framing the possi:le future de0elopment of the h7dro-meteorological situationB admitting and communicating the imperfectness of the forecast . 5ere parameter uncertaint7 is regarded :7 the generation of parameter ensem:les from efficient solutions o:tained :7 cali:ration of historic flood e0ents of a similar t7pe.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation . Hn the one handB the forecasters use uncertaint7 :andsB pdfSs etc.!-1+ da7sB 6HS*H-A. 9(rg DietrichB Dipl.-8ng.dfg-wasserkommission. .-8ng. 1<.bstract 9nformation =usion in 0robabilistic =lood =orecasting >sing 8nsembles from Different Sources Dr. !++4<. 2or medium to longer lead times .e!words: ensem:le forecastB data fusionB e0idence theor7B rainfall-runoff model 2lood forecasts are essential to issue relia:le flood warnings and to initiate flood control measures on time./oth et al. discharge< is challenging. for communication of uncertaint7B on the other hand decision makers are often interested in deterministic or e0en Boolean 0alues . /he accurac7 and the lead time of forecasts for the headwaters primaril7 depend on the meteorological forecasts.@W-%. We propose an adapti0e modeling strateg7.0idence theor7 has :een de0eloped as a generaliDation of Ba7esian theor7B which introduces the concept of :elief and plausi:ilit7 of h7potheses . /he poster presents the application of e0idence theor7 as a tool for information fusion and decision support.i.%S and .wang-!Jru:.e. .%SB 6HS*HA. 2or each of the models parameter uncertaint7 can also :e regarded . 2inding a realistic sharpness of a pro:a:ilit7 distri:ution or a closed pro:a:ilit7 densit7 function of the forecasted 0aria:le .de< .4 E !1 hours< S.not su:-ect of this contri:ution :ut co0ered :7 other researchers<. /he possi:le contri:ution of information fusion to support the t7pe of decisions mentioned a:o0e is discussed.6*W2 ensem:les<B the face-0alues of the ensem:le mem:ers are processed :7 a rainfall-runoff model or se0eral models to account for structural uncertaint7 of the h7drological models.fig.%S and A*? forecasts are e0aluated and processed :7 a single conceptual model .7an. Hne Cuestion to sol0e in the longer time is: when to release water from a reser0oir to increase flood retention capacitiesB and when to classif7 an alarm as false alarm and stop measuresW 8n the 0er7 short timeB a pro:a:ilistic forecast of discharge 0alues for 0ulnera:le sites is a main su:-ect of interest. /his contri:ution presents a framework for pro:a:ilistic flood forecast simulation :ased on operational meteorological ensem:le prediction s7stems and rainfall-runoff-models.e0acuate E 7es or noW<. http://www.de Back to contents !$ of . 2or 0er7 short lead times .Shafer 1)$>B ?lir X Smith !++1<. A challenging and possi:l7 su:-ecti0e task is the estimation of posterior distri:utions in e3treme situationsB where no records from the past e3ist.

+& ense".B 6andilleB &. S 12026 hrly co"p.0idence.de Back to contents ! of . http://www. !+S. short r#nge Driving &orce .le "eso0sc#le.. se#son +ss.ilistic *e#ther scen#rio "eso0sc#le. . /BI.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation 4$ 2$ 21 h 0 )'SM'0. /. B#yesi#n Mo$el +ver#ge (BM+) ?r#ining perio$9 M) historic (loo$ events . . B. '.#. 9. sno*.serv#tions +ss. 8n: 9oliffeB 8.n(erence Precon$itions +P.eferences: ?lirB &.M.A. very short r#nge Driving &orce Multi "o$el ense".le loc#l sc#le.1)$><: A *athematical /heor7 of . Annals of *athematics and Artificial 8ntelligence 4!B #-44. . X SmithB .KPS ense".B /alagrandB H.le up$#te Pro.le +rcK>M' = hrly co"p. "e$iu" r#nge Driving &orce Pro.. %rincetonB @9: %rinceton Fni0ersit7 %ress. *. . 6onceptualiDation of an ensem:le-:ased operational flood risk management E h7drological ensem:les. 9ohn Wile7 X Sons. $isch#rge g#uges SeJuenti#l ense". X 1huB Y.M30.nsem:le 2orecasts.dfg-wasserkommission.eds.!++4<: %ro:a:ilit7 and .#. X StephensonB D. S<+?.ilistic runo(( scen#rio (or the he#$*#ters (loo$ routingDinun$#tion "o$els 2007/2008 2igure 1.<: 2orecast Lerification: A %ractitionerSs &uide in Atmospheric Science. ShaferB &. /othB 1. .le +rcK>M'.!++1<: Hn measuring uncertaint7 and uncertaint7-:ased information: .ecent de0elopments. P#r#"eter ense".

dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents !) of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

/he spatial su:di0ision follows soil map units.dfg-wasserkommission.bstract Spatial prediction of contributing areas for diffuse pollution losses to surface waters : Sensiti%it! and uncertaint! anal!sis . /he model predictions are dependent on the spatiall7 0aria:le h7drological parameters of the catchment.outing ./5 1urich with the e3tension in aCuatic ph7sics Diploma thesis: *odeling of the effect of h7dropower plants on the temperature regime of the :ranch ri0er of the .e!words: 57drological modellingB contri:uting areasB sensiti0it7 anal7sisB *onte 6arlo simulation 2ield studies ha0e shown that her:icide losses often originate from a limited part of a catchment onl7.S*D.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6 8n%ir6 Sciences 3artin =re! 57drogeolog7 /urrent affiliationD .< model. Hther parameters like the efficienc7 of drainage s7stem were estimated :7 e3pert knowledge. %rior estimations of the h7draulic parameters were deri0ed with pedotransfer functions from the soil te3ture. 2or that purposeB we modified the Soil *oisture Distri:ution and . We test the predicta:ilit7 of such critical source areas in a small agricultural catchment in SwitDerlandB where her:icide losses were monitored in pre0ious field studies.de Back to contents 4+ of . Such estimations in0ol0e su:stantial uncertaint7B which affects the prediction of the spatiall7 distri:uted risk areas.n0ironmental 6hemistr7 at . since !++" . is a simple distri:uted water :alance modelB which predicts saturation-e3cess o0erland flow areas in a watershed. Bo3 >11B >++ D':endorfB SwitDerland %hone: I"1 .fre7Jeawag. H.hZne %hD student in the Department of .awag Y:erlandstrasse 144B %. http://www.n0ironmental .+<"" !4 #+ $1 . /he prediction is :ased on an estimation of the relati0e saturation of the soil :7 accounting for infiltrationB lateral water flowB percolation and e0aporation of water in the soil column.-mail: martin.awag in D':endorf: 57drological modeling of contri:uting areas for diffuse her:icide losses to surface waters including an uncertaint7 anal7sis. S*D.ch 6hemistr7 /2 1))$ E !++4 Stud7 of en0ironmental science at the . /hese areas are characteriDed :7 the occurrence of fast flow processes like surface runoff or macropore flow to tile drains.

A computer programme for statistical inference and sensiti0it7B identifia:ilit7B and uncertaint7 anal7sis. and 6ar0alho-BritoB A. 8n: /ei3eiraB 9.eferences: .> 7ield significantl7 different parameter distri:utions and spatial distri:utions of runoff generation. /he prediction of the spatial distri:ution of contri:uting areas was more difficult to e0aluate :ecause no e3plicit 0alidation data e3ist.. /he predicted discharge agreed reasona:l7 well with the measured 0alues. #1-##. /he measured her:icide losses at the outlet of three su:catchment agreed partiall7 with the predicted runoff processes on the her:icide application fields. /his is critical :ecause classical soil maps contain onl7 little information a:out these parameters.uropean Simulation and *odelling 6onference .dfg-wasserkommission.*../8B pp. /o test whether discharge data from the catchment helps to restrict the space of accepta:le parameter 0alues *onte 6arlo calculations simulation were carried out.B eds.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation /o anal7De the sensiti0it7 of the spatial prediction to the indi0idual parameter and to Cuantif7 the o0erall uncertaint7 of the model predictions the simulation program is linked with the s7stem anal7sis software tool F@6S8* .HS8S-..S* !++#<B Hct.eichertB !++#<.2.de Back to contents 41 of . !"-!>B %ortoB %ortugalB .eichertB %B !++#B F@6S8* . .deep percolation and depth of the soil< are the most sensiti0e parameters. /his anal7sis will :e e3tended in the future :7 using a Ba7esian inference approach.B %roceedings of the !++# . Simulations with a @ashSutcliffe criterion [ +.. 2irst calculations were carried with parameter estimated a priori :ased on literature 0alues and data from pedotransfer function. http://www. /he local sensiti0it7 anal7sis re0ealed that the parameter descri:ing the lower :oundar7 of the soil .F.

de Back to contents 4! of .dfg-wasserkommission.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

F Water 2ramework Directi0e.kol6 7astian 57drogeolog7 raupner /urrent affiliationD Dresden &roundwater . .ast &erman7 large post mining landscapes e3ist from open pit :rown coal mining.* and column tests for sulphate reduction . %olluted groundwater endangers surrounding groundwater :odies as well as downstream located surface water :odies.L.a:out !+++ kmU< located in the AausitD southwest of 6ott:us. All calculations were carried out on a Cuasi "D &8S-grid :ase with the additional dimensions depth and time.ising groundwater ta:le and groundwater recharge releases p7rite o3idation products like iron and sulphur within the mining dumps.3isting data are the main source of informationR therefore effort is necessar7 for collectionB preparation and 0alidation of data.de /2 1))$ E !++4 2rei:erg Fni0ersit7 of /echnolog7 Diplom-&eo(kologe Diploma thesis o0er reacti0e transport modelling with *HD65. 5ighl7 concentrated groundwater in these dumps is formed with sulphate concentrations of up to "+++ mg/l. /he research area co0ers a whole post mining region .e!words: sulphateB p7rite o3idationB transport modelling 8n .D&21 e. Due to site dimension and large time scale Cuestions like preparation of large data setsB assignation of point data to areaB uncertaint7 of data and accepta:le degree of simplification rise and ha0e to :e answered.bstract 9nfluence of the Lausit1 0ost 3ining <egion on .mail: :graupnerJdgfD.+<4#1 E "+#+>>$ .< *eraner StraKe 1+B +1!1$ DresdenB &erman7 %hone: I") .de Back to contents 44 of . Descri:ing future migration of these solutes with groundwater is necessar7 :asis for reCuired risk assessment and for de0eloping protection strategies according to .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6: eo. And furthermore such a large area canSt :e handled without automated procedures. A holistic approach starting with a detailed description of mining dumps as pollutant sourcesB geochemical alterations o0er time of deposition to matter transport simulation is used to deal with the pro:lem dimension.esearch 6enter . . *odelling of mining discharge reCuires a good knowledge of the matter source itself.pproach roundwater Nualit! ' a Large Scale .dfg-wasserkommission. *ass :alance calculations :ased on a regional geological model were set up using :orehole data from mining. Fsing geochemical properties of each geological la7er 7ield the mean content of selected reacti0e http://www. /he7 consist of mining dumpsB post mining lakes and :ranched ri0er s7stems. 8nput data and results are stored in that s7stem pro0iding an7time access to e0er7 processing step. A groundwater cone of depression has influenced an area of around 14#+ kmU during the last centur7 whereof a:out 1+ percent in area are mining dumps and a:out 4 percent are post mining lakes.

surface mining in humid climate< it ma7 :e used in mine planning well ahead of mine closure planning. *7 research aims at the Cuantification of the impact of mining on the aCuatic en0ironment. /he release of matter from mining dump material to the groundwater is descri:ed with a dou:le porosit7 concept.%rommerB !++!< that links */4D and %5. /his contri:utes to the sustaina:le use of resources. 2or similar settings . Borehole samples from the dumps were anal7sed for sulphur species and showed good agreement with calculated results. . /he7 were de0eloped and maintained o0er more than one decade.3change coefficients are deri0ed from column e3periments. 2or the research area fi0e detailed groundwater flow models e3ist. /he groundwater flow scenario was used as e3ternal information and gathered in form of data files. Appro3imatel7 1# percent of it was o3idised during and after mining and forms the source of groundwater pollution for the whole region. All mining dumps within the research area held originall7 a:out >> *illion tons of p7rite sulphur..org http://www. 6alculation of secondar7 p7rite o3idation processes were carried out at each grid point o0er the depth and time.de Back to contents 4" of . ..Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation minerals in each mining dump. A detailed knowledge of groundwater flow is a precondition for transport simulation.Q6.pht4d.!++!<: A reacti0e multicomponent transport model for saturated porous mediaB Fsers *anualB www. . Hngoing reactions with o37gen in the mining dumpsB referred to as secondar7 p7rite o3idationB were considered :7 modelling p7rite o3idation due to o37gen diffusion through the unsaturated dump. An a0erage primar7 p7rite o3idation turno0er rate of $ percent for each dump :od7 was assumed representing o3idation during mining acti0ities.eferences: %rommerB 5enning .esults are put together and used as input for transport modelling using the tool %5/4D .i0ers are as well influenced during the ne3t decades. .dfg-wasserkommission. /ransport modelling shows continuing mining impact on groundwater o0er the ne3t decades with an area of influence of more than 1++ kmU. %ost mining lakes are due to their close position immediatel7 affected :7 polluted groundwater.

D0 0115A Dres$en ?el. (ro" the *orCshop . ?hus.66.y the superposition o( $i((erent uncert#intiesU /o* c#n *e #n#lyses in # reli#.M+T (loo$ rese#rch initi#tive.bstract >ncertaint! anal!sis in rainfall:runoff modelling 9ens &rundmannB &erd 5. Position: :ese#rch #ssoci#te #t the .y!rology Degree: Dipl.nstitute o( /y$rology #n$ Meteorology #t Dres$en University o( ?echnology Research interests: hy$rologic#l "o$elling o( r#in(#ll0runo(( #n$ *#tershe$ processes. 2001) Curr. <@r2.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6:H!drol6 Mens -ens 3run!mann *1974 rundmann . e1pect #n intensive e1ch#nge o( e1perience #n$ i$e#s *ith theother p#rticip#nts.#sin "#n#ge"ent #n$ hy$ro$yn#"ics Moti ation ?he topic o( the *orCshop soun$s highly interesting to "e since it $e#ls *ith the topic o( "y "#in rese#rch (iel$.nstitute o( /y$rology #n$ Meteorology. river .speciall7 in fast responding catchments the limited relia:ilit7 and wo::liness of a deterministic flood forecast ma7 easil7 -eopardise the forecast credi:ilit7. /hese http://www. Dres$en University o( ?echnology. +t the "o"ent .le *#y the e1tr#pol#tion #. uncert#inty #n#lysis.e!words: uncertaint7 anal7sisB monte-carlo simulationB optimisation 0roblem .n this conte1t .grun$"#nn8tu0$res$en. #" investig#ting the uncert#inties in r#in(#ll0runo(( "o$eling *ithin the /':. #n#lysis) #n$ p#r#lleli2#tion o( opti"i2#tion #n$ si"ul#tion "etho$s.de Back to contents 4# of . SchmitD 8nstitute of 57drolog7 and *eteorolog7B Dresden Fni0ersit7 of /echnolog7B &erman7 .T 0 proGect Develop"ent o( #n 'per#tion#l K1pert Syste" (or &loo$ :isC M#n#ge"ent )onsi$ering Pre$iction Uncert#inty% (oun$e$ . E6F =41 66==4446 K"#il9 Gens.y the BMB&0:. /y$rology (?U Dres$en. . Current a!!ress9 . /his can :e o0ercome :7 considering in addition to the meteorological forecast uncer-tainties also the uncertaint7 of the h7drologic modelling.ility o( r#in(#ll runo(( "o$elsU #s *ell #s technic#l #spects liCe h#n$ling o( l#rge #"ounts o( $#t# (stor#ge.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: .dfg-wasserkommission.urger Str. #" "ost o( #ll intereste$ in "etho$ologic#l Juestions liCe9 /o* c#n *e "ini"i2e the e((ort o( Monte0)#rlo Si"ul#tions . opti"is#tion.

/he necessar7 interpolation results in a further com-ponent of h7drologic uncertaint7. \ .ainfall information is onl7 pro0ided at a distinct times and at onl7 a few gauges in the catchment.e.e.0< decreases with increasing rainfall intensit7.pro:lem of eCuifinalit7<. methodolog7 . soil parameters and model parameters<B the glo:al uncertaint7 of rainfall-runoff modelling is e0aluated. A com-parison with the common &AF.g. 2inall7 we anal7se the :e-ha0iour pattern of these uncertainties along a growing catchment area. \ %arameter optimiDations with e0olutionar7 algorithms and *onte-6arlo simu-lations to anal7se the uncertaint7 of conceptual model parametersB Based on *onte-6arlo simulations the most sensiti0e parameters will :e iden-tified and anal7sed with respect to their correlati0e dependencies. 2or e3ample figure 1 shows the influence of uncertain soil data of a medium range flood e0ent. 2urther in0estigations showB that the cor-responding 0ariation coeffi-cient .g.Be0en 1))!< ser0es for 0erif7-ing the o:tained model parameter uncertaint7.e./5 .de Back to contents 4> of . /he following methods will :e used: \ *onte-6arlo simulations of distri:uted parameters sets to anal7se the influ-ence of uncertain soil data with respect to runoffB Based on the range of soil structure information resulting from soil maps we deri0e soil h7draulic parameters 0ia a pedotransfer function.goodness of fit< from different parameter com:inationsB i. Simultane-ousl7 we use these simulations to deri0e task adeCuate o:-ecti0e functions. We use the con-cept of soil similarit7 to descri:e the 0aria:ilit7 of the soil h7draulic character-istics relati0e to a single reference soil per soil t7pe :7 onl7 one scaling pa-rameter. <esults . different model parameters ma7 arise from a single cali:ration e0ent .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation latter uncertaint7 essentiall7 arises from: \ insuffisant catchment information . 8n this con-te3t we in0estigate different rainfall e0ents in order to e0aluate the impact of 0ar7-ing process d7namics as regards the runoff formation.ims and methods Within our stud7 we focus on the a:o0e mentioned sources of h7drologic model uncertainties.e. After anal7sing the uncertainties of indi0idual parameter groups of the rainfall-runoff model . . /hese scenariosB descri:ing time and space 0aria:ilit7 of rain-fall dataB are generated :7 a turning :ands method and ser0e as input for model simulation.esults of the a:o0e mentioned tasks will :e presented for our test and research catchment of gauge 1(:litDBusing the distri:uted h7drological model WaSi*. /his allows reducing the large num:er of parameters and to include their correlati0e dependencies in a *onte-6arlo simulation. /hese uncertainties are e3emplaril7 Cuantified for the flash flood-prone catchment 1(:litD in the ore mountain. 8t is modelled :7 an ensem:le of precipita-tion scenarios.dfg-wasserkommission.Lrugt !++4<B 6ross entrop7 . *HS6.* . /he selected parameters and o:-ecti0e functions ser0e as an input for different state-of-the-art optimisation algorithms .?roese !++><< which pro0ide the uncertaint7 information. fig 1: flood e0ent )/1))# gauge 1(:litD http://www.i. 0ague soil data< and \ the likelihood to o:tain a similar cali:ration Cualit7 . /he uncertainties of indi0idual parameter groups will :e Cuantified according to the properties and the a-priori knowledge as regards these parameter groups.Schulla 1)) <.

Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation

Literature
Be0enB ?.9B and Binle7B A.*.B 1))!: /he future of distri:uted models: model cali:ration and uncertaint7 predictionB 57drological %rocessesB >B !$)-!) . ?roeseB D. %.B ,u:insteinB ,. Y and %orotsk7B S.B !++>: 6ross-.ntrop7 *ethod for 6ontinuous *ultie3tremal HptimiDationB *ethodolog7 and 6omputing in Applied %ro:a:ilit7B B pp.4 4-"+$. SchullaB 9.B X 9asperB ?.B 1)) : *odell:eschrei:ung WaSi*-./5. - &eographisches 8nstitut ./5 1'rich. LrugtB 9.A.B !++4: .ffecti0e and efficient algorithm for multio:-ecti0e optimiDation of h7drologic modelsB Water ,esources ,esearchB 4) ; <B Artn 1!1".

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Dr6 7B;rn
Dr. *51rn 36c%er *1975

ücker
A7uatic 8cology

Degree: Dipl. Biol., 7oology #n$ Kcology (Philipps University M#r,urg, 2001); Dr. rer. n#t., &resh*#ter Kcology (Univ. Pots$#", 2004). Curr. Position: Post$octor#l rese#rch (ello* o( the >er"#n +c#$e"y o( Sciences ;K'P';D.!+; rese#rcher #t the &e$er#l University o( Min#s >er#is, Br#2il

Research interests: ecosyste" ecology #n$ li"nology, stre#" ecology (nutrient #n$ org#nic c#r,on $yn#"ics, energy (lo*, pri"#ry #n$ secon$#ry pro$uction, hy$ro$yn#"ics) Moti ation: .n "y current rese#rch, . #" $e#ling *ith uncert#inties in si"ple "et#,olic #n$ ,iogeoche"ic#l "o$els. &urther, . #" currently pl#nning # proGect on the "ech#nistic upsc#ling o( stre#" re#ch0sc#le ,iogeoche"ic#l process r#tes to river0syste" sc#le. Current a!!ress9 Universi$#$e &e$er#l $e Min#s >er#is, .nstituto $e )iVnci#s BiolWgic#s, Depto. BotXnic#, +v. Pres. +ntYnio )#rlos 662A, P#"pulh#, =12A00010 Belo /ori2onte, Min#s >er#is, Br#2il, Phone9 EE440=10=6F66=16, K"#il9 e"#il8,Goern0guecCer.$e, <e,9 http9DD***.,Goern0 guecCer.net "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: >@cCer B, BoZch#t .> (200A) ."p#cts o( #gricultur#l l#n$ use on ecosyste" structure #n$ (unction o( tropic#l )err#$o stre#"s. &resh*#ter Biology (in press) BoZch#t .>, <eitho(( >, 3r@ger +, >@cCer B, +$ri#n : (200A) + ,ioche"ic#l e1pl#n#tion (or the success o( "i1otrophy in the (l#gell#te 'chro"on#s sp.. ;i"nology B 'ce#nogr#phy9 429 1626016=2 >@cCer B, Pusch M? (2006) :egul#tion o( nutrient upt#Ce in eutrophic lo*l#n$ stre#"s. ;i"nology B 'ce#nogr#phy 419 166=0164= >@cCer B, Br#uns M, Pusch M? (2006) K((ects o( *#ste*#ter tre#t"ent pl#nt $isch#rge on ecosyste" structure #n$ (unction o( lo*l#n$ stre#"s. -ourn#l o( the !orth +"eric#n Benthologic#l Society9 249 =1=0=2F >@cCer B, BoZch#t .> (2006) Stre#" "orphology controls #""oniu" retention in tropic#l he#$*#ters. Kcology 549 25150252A >@cCer B, &ischer / (200=) &l#gell#te #n$ cili#te $istri,ution in se$i"ents o( # lo*l#n$ river9 rel#tionships *ith environ"ent#l gr#$ients #n$ ,#cteri#. +Ju#tic Micro,i#l Kcology =19 6A0A6

.bstract
>ncertainties in estimating and predicting stream ecos!stem ser%ices ,e!words: whole-stream primar7 production and respirationB nutrient spiraling 8n ri0er s7stemsB 0arious natural and anthropogenic compounds emitted from the catchmentsB such as organic car:on ;H6< and inorganic nutrientsB are not onl7 transportedB :ut also storedB :iogeochemicall7 transformedB and there:7 partiall7 eliminated ;1<. /hose :iogeochemical
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processes in ri0er s7stems pla7 an important role in the glo:al geochemical :udgetB which is hea0il7 influenced :7 human impactsB such as eutrophication and climate change ; <. /husB :iogeochemical processing of H6 and nutrients is regarded as a natural ecos7stem ser0iceB which significantl7 contri:utes to the well-:eing of human societ7 :7 increasing the usa:ilit7 of limited water resourcesB such as stream and ri0er waterB floodplain aCuifersB ri0erine lakesB and estuaries. Biogeochemical processing of H6 and nutrients in running waters is most commonl7 estimated as reach-scale rates of whole-stream dissol0ed o37gen ;DH< meta:olismB i.e.B respiration ;,< and gross primar7 production ;&%%<B as well as rates of whole-stream gross nutrient uptakeB and related su:processesB such as nitrificationB denitrificationB etc. ;/, .<. 5owe0erB estimates of , and &%%B as well as those of nutrient uptake can :e associated with considera:le uncertaintiesB especiall7 when process rates and stream water nutrient concentrations are low ;-, !<. .stimates of , and &%% appear to :e most sensiti0e to on-site estimates of atmospheric pressure and :oth coefficients of atmospheric streamwater reaeration and streamwater dilution :7 anaero:ic groundwater. .stimates of whole-stream nutrient uptake seem to :e most sensiti0e to the degree of spatial and temporal e3perimental replication as well as to nutrient concentrations measured at low concentration le0els. /husB efforts to impro0e the precision in measuring those parameters should significantl7 reduce uncertainties in estimating whole-stream ,B &%%B and gross nutrient uptake. 8n factB anal7ses presented in this contri:ution will demonstrate that uncertainties in ,B &%%B and gross nutrient uptake estimates can :e considera:l7 diminished :7 the com:ined application of impro0ements in e3perimental designB adeCuate degrees of replicationB as well as modern measuring techniCues. A mechanistic understanding of ecos7stem ser0icesB such as H6 processing and nutrient uptakeB at watershed scale is essential for the integrati0e and costeffecti0e management of ri0er catchments. /his includes knowledge on the factors that control ecos7stem ser0ices and their spatial and temporal d7namicsB which could in turn :e used for a mechanistic upscaling of reach-scale rates of ecos7stem ser0ices to the watershed scale. *odels that predict rates of ecos7stem ser0ices successfull7 ;e3plaining 0ariations :etween $4 to )$]< are t7picall7 non-linear and in0ol0e multiple independent control 0aria:les ;/, 7, 0<. 5owe0erB models differ strongl7 :etween stream s7stems as well as stream orders and include different h7drogeomorphic ;5, 10<B chemical ;/, 11<B and :iotic control 0aria:les ;/, 1 <. /hough there are se0eral approaches to predict stream ecos7stem ser0ices at small spatial and temporal scalesB there isB at presentB neither a unif7ing mechanistic model a0aila:le to predict long-term patterns of stream ecos7stem ser0icesB nor to predict patterns of ecos7stem ser0ices in different watersheds or e0en along se0eral stream orders.
,eferences 1. 9. D. @ew:oldB in T#e rivers #andboo6B %. 6alowB &. .. %ettsB .ds. ;Blackwell ScientificB 1))!<B pp. 4$)-"+ . !. %. *. Litousek et al.B *cological Applications +B $4$ ;1))$<. 4. B. &'ckerB *. /. %uschB 1i(nology and 7ceanograp#y F(B 1""4 ;!++><. ". B. &'ckerB *. BraunsB *. /. %uschB 8o%rnal of t#e 9ort# A(erican :ent#ological Society )FB 414 ;!++><. #. S. 5anafiB *. &raceB 9. A. We::B B. 5artB *cosyste(sB in press. >. 9. ,. *c6utchanB W. *. AewisB 9. 2. SaundersB 8o%rnal of t#e 9ort# A(erican :ent#ological Society (+B 1## ;1)) <. $. ,. H. 5allB 9. A. /ankB 1i(nology and 7ceanograp#y G#B 11!+ ;!++4<. . %. 9. *ulholland et al.B ;res#water :iology GKB 1#+4 ;!++1<. ). B. &'ckerB 8. &. Bo^chatB *cology #FB ! 1 ;!++"<. 1+. %. 9. *ulhollandB .. ,. *arDolfB 9. ,. We:sterB D. ,. 5artB S. %. 5endricksB 1i(nology and 7ceanograp#y G)B "44 ;1))$<. 11. W. ?. Dodds et al.B 8o%rnal of t#e 9ort# A(erican :ent#ological Society )(B !+> ;!++!<. 1!. 9. ,. We:ster et al.B ;res#water :iology G#B 14!) ;!++4<.

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esearch F21.soilB 37lemB stomata< with different resistances. 5owe0erB plants might adapt to minimiDing water shortages stemming from limiting soil h7draulic conducti0it7B for e3ample :7 ad-usting rooting densit7.bstract 3odelling water uptake based on a model for a single root According to 0an 5onertSs *odel transpiration is a water flu3 along a potential gradient and through a series of pathwa7s .n0ironmental .esearcher at the 5elmholtD 6entre for .de Back to contents "! of .&erman7< with the degree of a ODiploma .n0ironmental . http://www.P &raduation from the /echnical Fni0ersit7 of Dresden . *arch !4B !+++ . 5ere we argueB :ased on the in0estigation of water flow towards a single rootB that the soil h7draulic resistance to water flow might :e larger than usuall7 assumedB e0en under conditions where :ulk soil water content is ele0ated.esearch E F21 57dros7stemmodellierung / 6omputational 57dros7stems %ermoserstraKe 1# / +"41 AeipDig / &erman7 /el: I") 4"1 !4# 4)$4 email: anke.de /2 Since 9une !++# 9une !B !++# !++1-!++# at %ostdoctoral .n0ironmental . /herefore the plant resistance is considered the main limitation to the transpirational flu3 under most soil moisture conditions.hilde:randtJufD.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 .nke Hildebrandt 57drolog7 /urrent affiliationD 5elmholtD 6entre for .Hman<.esources *anagement.*8/B 6am:ridgeB FSA< /itle of the %hD thesis: OHn the ecoh7drolog7 of a seasonal cloud forest in Dhofar .ngineerP in the field of Water . &raduation with a %hD in the field of 57drolog7 .ngineering the *assachusetts 8nstitute of /echnolog7 .*8/B 6am:ridgeB FSA< &raduate studies at the Department of 6i0il and .dfg-wasserkommission. 8t is often argued that the root resistance is larger than the corresponding soil resistance to water flowB unless in 0er7 dr7 soils. /he discussion a:out which of those resistancesB namel7 plant or soil resistance to water flowB dominates the transpiration process at high atmospheric demand is still ongoing.

Pohlert. 2(6)..pce.M. hope to (in$ people $e#ling *ith si"il#r pro.e to"ogr#phic $#t# th#t #re prone to si"il#r pro. &orschungs2entru" -@lich. Soil physics #n$ Soil che"istry (Univ.+.D.. /u. M. Soil physics. there "ight #lso . I#$ose 7one -ourn#l. =(6).A. it is "y (perh#ps too si"plistic) vie* th#t "eteorologists use # plethor# o( $#t# sources to i"prove their *e#ther (orec#sts.uisman' -. Bouten #n$ >. Physics #n$ )he"istry o( the K#rth. A6F0A45. . -. +ssessing the "o$el per(or"#nce o( #n integr#te$ hy$rologic#l #n$ .uisman #n$ /0>.04.2006.A. <#ter :esources :ese#rch. Me#suring soil *#ter content *ith groun$ penetr#ting r#$#r9 # revie*. -. A.le"s #n$ perh#ps even to co"e #cross #ltern#tive "etho$s to integr#te geophysic#l $#t# into hy$rologic#l "o$els. &or e1#"ple. >er"#ny. -. .A. Sperl. . $oi9 10. I#$ose 7one -ourn#l.A.ot. . . +nn#n (200=). 264(106).A.uisman' -. . <eiher"@ller. 62. 2(6).uisman.leAander $Sander& Huisman Dr. '. Current a!!ress9 . /y$rology #n$ K#rth Syste" Sciences. 11(2).M..A. Knviron"ent#l Mo$eling #n$ +ssess"ent.. Curr. -ourn#l o( /y$rology. #n$ .r#tion. (2006). . S. 2F(11012). . IereecCen. 2002). Slo. 6A606F1.. +"ster$#". During the *orCshop. Ph. Position: Post$octor#l &orschungs2entru" -@lich. FFA01011. 41F042F. Soil *#ter content "e#sure"ents #t $i((erent sc#les9 #ccur#cy o( ti"e $o"#in re(lecto"etry #n$ groun$0penetr#ting r#$#r.uisman' -.ution o( *#ter content #long # ?D: pro.-. 11 (=)..Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 Mohan . ?. Irugt #n$ <. h#ve receive$ # gr#nt (ro" the D&> ([ProGeCtleiterstelleR) to investig#te "etho$s to i"prove the use o( geophysic#l "e#sure"ents (or hy$rologic#l "o$el c#li.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: Breuer. presente$ # ne* "etho$ to integr#te geophysic#l "e#sure"ents in hy$rologic#l "o$els. ?el9EE6F0(0)2661061560A. #n$ K.er 200A. #" #*#re o( the (#ct th#t other $isciplines #re $e#ling *ith si"il#r pro. 9"an!er: .de Back to contents "4 of . <1160=.A.102FD2006<:0040FA.#r$. . 20F0215.. +"ster$#". Snepv#ngers. -.uisman #n$ /0>. Monitoring te"por#l $evelop"ent o( sp#ti#l soil *#ter content v#ri#tion9 co"p#rison o( groun$0 penetr#ting r#$#r #n$ ti"e $o"#in re(lecto"etry. . .le"s #s the geophysic#l $#t# o( interest to "e.t#ining the sp#ti#l $istri. Breuer. ?his proGect *ill st#rt in Septe".0>. # PhD stu$ent #n$ # scienti(ic progr#""er.uisman. /euvelinC (200=). . K0 "#il9 s. . 112501164. 42624 -@lich. &re$e (2006).-. S.). Bouten (2006).D. I#$ose 7one -ourn#l..huis"#n8(20Guelich. <#tershe$ "o$elling Moti ation. +n#lysis o( #ir0l#unche$ groun$0penetr#ting r#$#r techniJues to "e#sure the soil sur(#ce *#ter content. /. ).1016DG.nstitute 69 +grosphere. 65045. /ei"ov##r#. Ierstr#ten (2001). $oi9 10. ?he sensitivity o( si"ul#te$ hy$rologic#l (lu1es to*#r$s ch#nges in soil properties in response to l#n$ use ch#nge. Breuer #n$ /. -.)>). &re$e (200A).B.uisman *1974 Degree: Dipl. -. &re$e (2006)..le"s. ?. Monte )#rlo #ssess"ent o( uncert#inty in the si"ul#te$ hy$rologic#l response to l#n$ use ch#nge.. ). the rese#rch te#" *ill consist o( # post$octor#l rese#rcher.-.. :e$"#n #n$ P. .n "y poster present#tion.dfg-wasserkommission.uisman' -..#".y!rology Research interests: /y$rogeophysics. .iogeoche"ic#l "o$el (or $isch#rge #n$ nitr#te lo#$ pre$ictions.012. . Bouten #n$ -.A. -. . +"ongst these $#t# sources. Recently' . <.+. Soil physics (Univ. http://www.esi$es "e.. >er"#ny rese#rcher #t the ..nstitute o( )he"istry #n$ Dyn#"ics o( the >eosphere (.e using the S)KM0U+ B#yesi#n inverse "o$eling sche"e. -. I#nclooster.S. <. 1FFA). .

dfg-wasserkommission.e!words: &eoph7sical measurementsB *odel in0ersionB 57drolog7.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Pohlert.g.. 2or all three methodsB the numerical e3periment in0estigated whether soil h7draulic parameters could :e determined from time-lapse measurements during an infiltration e3periment.uisman.A. Breuer #n$ /0>. 9adoonB A.< and .e. /raditionall7B rele0ant information on h7drological properties and/or state 0aria:les is o:tained in a seCuential approach from geoph7sical measurements: the geoph7sical sur0e7 data are in0erted firstB and the information thus o:tained is used within the h7drological model cali:ration. Weiherm'llerB 9.lectrical . 2140225. Lereecken.de Back to contents "" of . &eoph7sical measurements are a 0alua:le source of information for the parameteriDation of h7drological models. 8n case of /D.esisti0it7 /omograph7 . . H:erd(rsterB ?. sensitivity #n$ uncert#inty #n#lysis..< will directl7 translate in errors of the h7drological model cali:ration.1.ntegr#tion o( # $et#ile$ . &re$e (200A).eflectometr7 .bstract .adar .n integrated data in%ersion approach to use geoph!sical measurements in h!drological models 9.&%.. .iogeoche"ic#l "o$el into S<+? (or i"prove$ nitrogen pre$ictions Q "o$el $evelop"ent. Lander:orght and 5. 57drological and petroph7sical parameters are o:tained :7 minimiDing the difference :etween modeled and o:ser0ed h7drological and geoph7sical data.. and &%.B a one-dimensional http://www. 8n the so-called integrated in0ersion approachB geoph7sical measurements are directl7 included in the h7drological in0erse pro:lem :7 coupling a forward model of the geoph7sical measurements with a h7drological model./D. Aam:otB 6.g. 2igure 1 represents a general e3ample of such integrated in0ersion scheme. When monitoring h7drological state 0aria:lesB this ill-posed seCuential in0ersion ignores the potential constraints that are pro0ided :7 a0aila:le h7drological information . Additionall7B artifacts of the geoph7sical data in0ersion . .A.e. 20=(=06). . /he link :etween h7drological and geoph7sical state 0aria:les is esta:lished using petroph7sical relationships. /he aim of this paper is to e3plore an alternati0e method to use geoph7sical information in h7drological model parameter identification. 5uismanB S. -. mass :alanceB shape of wetting front<. due to lack of sensiti0it7B high measurement and modeling errorsB etc. Kcologic#l Mo$elling. 2irst tests of this integrated h7drogeoph7sical in0ersion approach in0ol0ed numerical test cases with three geoph7sical methods: /ime Domain ./<.<B &round %enetrating . ?. .

/ and &%. Hther frameworks for using geoph7sical data to cali:rate h7drological modelsB such as ensem:le ?alman filteringB might also :e considered.B .dfg-wasserkommission. *ore information on the &%. /he in0ersion results demonstrated that the ph7sical constraints pro0ided :7 the h7drological model resulted in well-posed in0erse pro:lems that allowed determination of the soil h7draulic parameters from time-lapse measurements during infiltration.1+!)/!++>&A+!$)+>. Lereecken. data in0ersion for soil h7draulic and electric propert7 determination./B Selhausen infiltration e3periments monitored with ./ measurementsB a homogeneous !D model :ased on the . 8n the case of the .de Back to contents "# of . 6losed loop &%. 5owe0erB there are issues with the initial conditionsB :oundar7 conditions and the petroph7sical relationships that need further in0estigation.6.. 2low chart of the integrated h7drogeoph7sical data in0ersion approach. Slo:B *. &eoph7sical .!++><.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation 2igure 1. stud7 can :e found in Aam:ot et al.ichards eCuation with homogeneous soil h7draulic parameters was coupled to an electromagnetic wa0e propagation model..?rauthausen tracer e3periments monitored with .< and the feasi:ilit7 of -oint in0ersion of a range of geoph7sical methods.esearch Aetters 44B A!1"+#B doi:1+.. 2uture applications of the integrated h7drogeoph7sical data in0ersion framework will focus on the anal7sis of e3isting data sets .. h7drological model :ased on the . !++>. <eferences Aam:otB S. LancloosterB and 5.ichards eCuations was coupled to a forward geoph7sical model descri:ing electrical resisti0it7 measurements. http://www. .

Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.de Back to contents "> of .dfg-wasserkommission.

S5%< summariDes a set of two constituti0e relationshipsB namel7 the soil water retention cur0e relating water content to water potentialB and the unsaturated h7draulic conducti0it7 cur0e relating unsaturated h7draulic conducti0it7 to water potential.D.SimunekB !++#<.dfg-wasserkommission.B !++$<. *oreo0erB the selection of an appropriate parameteriDation of the soil water retention and h7draulic http://www. Since the solution also reCuires knowledge of the S5%B their accurate knowledge is crucial for sol0ing man7 :asic and applied pro:lems in en0ironmental research .idenJtu-:s.B !++"<.de Back to contents "$ of .0an DamB !++"< which is a nonlinear partial differential eCuation that needs to :e sol0ed numericall7 under most initial and :oundar7 conditions. /he term Psoil h7draulic propertiesT .ii< a less time-consuming e3perimental anal7sisB and .g. Determining S5% :7 in0erse modelling relies on an adeCuate parameteriDation of the S5%. /he standard approach to simulate unsaturated water flow in porous media is the . 8n soil ph7sicsB a whole uni0erse of functions with a relati0el7 low num:er of parameters has :een de0eloped and tested in practical simulation studies including in0erse modelling.B !++"R Durner et al.ichards eCuation .DuanB 1))!B %an and WuB 1)) < to unsaturated flow pro:lems.de /2 !++! since 1+/!++! &raduation in &eo(kologie %h. /echniCues of nonlinear parameter estimation areB although well esta:lished in engineering in scienceB still a topic of :asic and applied research. Determining the S5% in the la:orator7 or in the field is prefera:l7 :e achie0ed :7 conducting transient flow e3periments in com:ination with in0erse modelling .upscaling< approach to deri0e effecti0e properties . /he ad0antages o0er classic stead7-state methods are .5ollandB !++1<B and modern h7:rid optimiDation algorithms . StudentB /F Braunschweig . /his ena:les the estimation of a set of model parameters that mathematicall7 descri:e the S5%. 8n particularB considera:le effort is spent on impro0ing the computational tools for sol0ing in0erse pro:lemsB e.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6: eo. /he in0erse modelling approach currentl7 recei0es e0en more attentionB :ecause the 0adose Done scientific communit7 is stri0ing to :ridge the gap :etween small and regional scale simulation studiesB and the application to larger scales is an alternati0e to the :ottom-up .-mail: s. 5owe0erB not all functions are sufficientl7 fle3i:le to 7ield adeCuate descriptions of the o:ser0ed :eha0iour of unsaturated flow s7stems. :7 the adaptation and application of modern glo:al optimiDation techniCues like genetic algorithms .iii< the applica:ilit7 to scales larger than t7pical for the la:orator7.Lanclooster et al.i< the use of ar:itrar7 :oundar7 conditionsB .5arter and 5opmansB !++"R Lrugt et al.5opmans et al.kol6 Sascha /hristian 9den 57drogeolog7 /urrent affiliationD 8nstitut f'r &eo(kologie /echnische Fni0ersit=t Braunschweig Aanger ?amp 1)cB 4 1+> BraunschweigB &erman7 phone: I") #41 4)1 #>+! . /his reCuires a com:ination of numerical flow simulation and nonlinear parameter estimation.B !++!R 2insterleB !++"R Lrugt and DaneB !++#R Durner and AipsiusB !++#<.bstract =ree:=orm estimation of the unsaturated soil h!draulic properties using global optimi1ation *odels used to predict the transport and fate of pollutants in soil rel7 on a proper soil h7draulic characteriDation :ecause the soil h7draulic properties control the d7namics of water flow in the 0adose Done .

L.!++4<B Ladose 1one 9. W. .es. 6. .in press<B .B and 9. /he principal idea to estimate constituti0e relationships :7 free-from functions is applica:le to man7 pro:lems in h7drological and h7drochemical researchB like the determination of sorption isotherms . DurnerB W. A multile0el routine identifies the adeCuate num:er of degrees of freedom :7 :alancing model performanceB the statistical interaction of the estimated model parameters .LrugtB !++4<B in particular :ecause strong parameter correlations impede the interpreta:ilit7 of single estimated coefficients.B and A. .!++"<B Water . .!++1<B Water .B %. Bouten . 8den . W. LrugtB 9. *7 poster contri:ution will present an impro0ed algorithm for estimating S5% without assigning an a priori shape to them.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation conducti0it7 function remains a challenge . SimunekB 9. 9ar0isB 9.es.. #B pp. 5arterB and W. A first-order uncertaint7 anal7sis pro0ides a Cuantitati0e measure of how well the S5% can :e identified in different ranges of pressure head. .g.de Back to contents " of .!++"<B in: Fnsaturated 1one *odeling: %rogressB ApplicationsB and 6hallengesB ?luwerB DordrechtB @etherlands. A. WallenderB /.dfg-wasserkommission. 9. 5.1+!)/!++>W. %anB A. 5opmans .es.!++1<B Adaptation in @atural and Artificial S7stemsB *8/ %ressB 6am:ridgeB *ass.B &.B and W.1++$/s1+#)>-++#-)++ -+. 6lothierB and S. Wu . <eferences BitterlichB S. /he contri:ution will emphasiDe the need for . /his offers great potential for designing optimal e3perimental procedures for identif7ing the h7draulic properties of porous media. 5ollandB 9. BoestenB A.B &.++# "#. .B F. Soc. 9ansenB and S. .i< efficient glo:al optimiDation strategiesB . .1))!<B Water . ?na:ner .$< doi:1+.nc7clopedia of 57drological SciencesB pp. . 5arterB /.B W. 2insterleB S.B W. http://www. 5opmansB 9. W. &uptaB and 9.1)) <B Water . ?roesB . Since parameteriDation errors are almost completel7 a0oidedB the algorithm is well suited to identif7 other error sources in unsaturated flow pro:lemsB e. 5. Durner . Am.esour. &. /otscheB and %. .!++!<B in: *ethods of Soil Anal7sis %art ": %h7sical *ethodsB Soil Sci.B !B ) E114. DurnerB S."<B !+4E!1$B doi: 1+.B "4.B !++1<B and their num:er.omanoB and W.uropean 9ournal of Soil Science DurnerB W.esour.?na:nerB !++#<B ar:itrar7 dose-response relationshipsB or rainfall-runoff modelling. /he new algorithm uses cu:ic 5ermite interpolation :etween nodal 0alues of water content and unsaturated h7draulic conducti0it7 and a glo:al e0olutionar7 optimiDation strateg7.B 9.!++#<B in: . Durner .!++#<B in: . 8den S. Book Ser. 9. /he details of the algorithm are descri:ed in 8den and Durner .. Aipsius . .B 4B $"$E $>!. BoutenB 5. /iktakB @.B and ?.B ). 5einenB and 2. .esour.eichertB and 5. 8 will demonstrate the effecti0eness of the algorithm for the e0aluation of classic multi-step outflow e3periments :7 in0estigating s7nthetic data sets and real measurements.es.!++$<: Water .!++"<B in: Fnsaturated 1one *odeling: %rogressB ApplicationsB and 6hallengesB ?luwerB DordrechtB @etherlands. SorooshianB and L...!++"<B Ladose 1one 9..B 4"B !!>1E !!>).B ># 4$B 1+1#E 1+4+.!++$<. 8denB and %. limitations in the applica:ilit7 of .B 0ol. SimunekB @. 6.esour.!++"< who introduced the term Pfree-formT functions to the 0adose Done communit7. 6. 8t is a further de0elopment of an idea presented :7 Bitterlich et al.ichards eCuation or pro:lems caused :7 spatial heterogeneit7. LrugtB 9. 0an DamB 9..nc7clopedia of 57drological SciencesB pp.ooi-B *. LancloosterB *.Cuantified :7 a collinearit7 inde3 inferred from the scaled sensiti0it7 matri3R Brun et al. BrunB . 6. 5opmans . .!++"<B in: Fnsaturated 1one *odeling: %rogressB ApplicationsB and 6hallengesB ?luwerB DordrechtB @etherlands.!++#<B 6omput. W. ?'nsch . ?na:nerB %. A.++!$+>.B ! B 1+1#E 1+41. )>4E1++"B Soil Sci. W. YoungB W.B 9. Soc. &upta .iii< identifia:ilit7 anal7sis to a0oid o0erparameteriDations and inadeCuate model structures.!++"<B Ladose 1one 9.B B. 5opmansB 6.1+!)/!++4W.ii< uncertaint7 anal7sisB and .esour.es. of Am. 11$1E11 +B 9ohn Wile7B 5o:okenB @. de . SchoupsB 9. .B 4B )$1E) 1. 8t will :e shown that the freeform approach 7ields optimal model parameters that show onl7 moderate correlation indicating wellposed in0erse pro:lems. &reen .B S. Du6hateau . 8glerB ?. Stagnitti .B "+B W+>#+4B doi:1+. *unoD-6arpenaB B.B *adisonB Wisconsin. &eosci. 1+!1E11""B 9ohn Wile7B 5o:okenB @. DuanB Q.

2001). 200A.et*een single0 #n$ "ultiple0ch#nnel "ount#in rivers in >er"#ny."itte$). 0 K1ch#nge i$e#s #n$ reJuire"ents. #Ju#tic ecology. ecologic#l "o$elling9 e((ects o( restor#tion on .out uncert#inty #n$ v#ri#. A7uatic 8cology . -Hhnig S).it#t "os#ics #n$ "#croinverte. st#rt . *ith scientists (ro" other $isciplines.r#tes Q $oes ch#nnel (or" $eter"ine co""unity co"positionU Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Fresh ater !cosyste"s (su.urg0Kssen.iot#. 200A."itte$).oren2 + #n$ /ering D. "on5a C.iology (Univ.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: ?he Juestion #rose $uring "y PhD0thesis9 .g. -Hhnig S) #n$ .teilung +nge*#n$te 7oologie D /y$ro. UniversitHt Duis. Ph.oren2 + #n$ /ering D. &B Biologie B >eogr#phie.iology. Position: Post$oc. stre#" .iology #t the University o( Duis. .etter i$e# #. ?el9 0201015=06=05.dfg-wasserkommission. -.uil$ing # net*orC.bstract 3odeling stream benthic in%ertebrates in their field of dreams . Su. 1))$<. . Dep#rt"ent o( +pplie$ 7oology D /y$ro. h#ve o.hnig *1975 Degree: Dipl.iologie. &#19 0201015=06662. Current a!!ress9 SonG# -Hhnig. Schl#cht# ' #n$ /ering D. /#. -Hhnig S). 0 )ont#ct to other young scientists. M#rch 2005 Q &e.oren2 +.t#ine$ # soun$ .G#ehnig8uni0$ue.urg0Kssen.enthic inverte.enthic inverte.de Back to contents ") of .et*een (loo$pl#in l#n$ use #n$ river hy$ro"orphology on $i((erent sp#ti#l sc#les 0 # c#se stu$y (ro" t*o lo*er0"ount#in c#tch"ents in >er"#ny. 200A. :e"e#n$ering >er"#n lo*l#n$ stre#"s Q Ju#lit#tive #n$ Ju#ntit#tive success o( restor#tion "e#sures.str#te0speci(ic "#croinverte. <uh#n. 200A. 200A.r#te co""unities9 -Hhnig S).D. -Hhnig S) #n$ /ering D. 6411A Kssen.r#tes in their (iel$ o( $re#"sL. 200A). Knviron"ent#l Sciences (Univ. K"#il9 sonG#.r#te $iversity p#tterns (ollo*ing stre#" restor#tion.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 SonBa /6 M?hnig Dr.#cC on the pl#nne$ rese#rch proGect L"o$eling stre#" . :estor#tion !cology (su. .nstitute o( /y$ro.ility issues #n$ v#rious #ppro#ches to consi$er the" in "o$els. Duis. :el#tion . on $#t#.t#in (ee$. Kssen.urg0Kssen. Aquatic %ciences & 'esearch across Boundaries (su.oren2 +.e!wordsD streamsB :enthic macroin0erte:ratesB aCuatic ha:itatB scale /he Gfield of dreams h7pothesisG means: Gif 7ou :uild itB the7 will comeG . in rel#tion to their "o$i(ic#tion #n$ recovery. Research interests: stre#" restor#tion. /y$ro. Curr. . 6onseCuentl7B to en0isage effects on aCuatic ha:itat conditions from management or restoration http://www."itte$). :#u"9 S04 ?0= B12. (+ug) 200F9 Post$oc.r#tes Moti ation 0 Discuss #n$ o. 3#il -.%almer et al. +. Funda"ental # A$$lied Li"nology9 in press. )hinese +c#$e"y o( Sciences. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Fresh ater !cosyste"s9 in press. 0 >et # . /y$ro"orphologic#l p#r#"eters in$ic#ting $i((erences .#cCgroun$ on (#ctors $eter"ining inverte. e.

/o :uild such a comple3 model the e3pertise of h7draulic and h7drologic scientists is reCuired for implementing the rele0ant h7draulic models from catchment to ha:itat le0elB modeling aCuatic ha:itat and changes of it due to management. . A0aila:le from www..eferences. . /hese preferences need to :e transferred into rules processa:le for 5AB8/A/.1B 9ul7 !++$<. !++$<. %articularl7 for macroin0erte:rates information on ha:itat preference .uropean freshwater organisms :elonging to macroin0erte:ratesB fishB diatoms and macroph7tes.5ering et al. 5AB8/A/ E a spatial anal7sis tool for ecological assessmentsB Directorate-&eneral of %u:lic Works and Water *anagementB 6op7right ` .+++ . 8ntegrated catchment assessment of ri0erine landscape d7namics./he /a3a and Autecolog7 Data:ase for 2reshwater Hrganisms.de Back to contents #+ of .info . Stream ha:itat parameters influencing :enthic macroin0erte:rate communities ha0e comprehensi0el7 :een descri:ed. 5ering DB 9ohnson . http://www.info .uropean streams with diatomsB macroph7tesBmacroin0erte:rates and fish: a comparati0e metric-:ased anal7sis of organism response to stress.?B ?ramm SB SchmutD SB SDosDkiewicD ? and Lerdonschot %2*. 5owe0erB the modeling of macroin0erte:rate communities .uf W.ntomolog7 "4: !$1E!)4.B *c@air 9@B Sri0asta0a % and 5art DD. !++$. and 5awkins 6%. Fltimatel7 the effect of management or restoration measures on the ha:itat configuration of stream sections and finall7 on :iota might :e predicted.estoration . 5AB8/A/ is a &8S-:ased applicationB which models the a0aila:ilit7 and Cualit7 of ha:itats for indi0idual species. Annual . Such modeling might :e used for prediction of suita:ilit7 of ha:itat to flora or fauna in response to changes in en0ironmental factors. 2reshwater Biolog7 #1: 1$#$E1$ #. 1))$. !++!. 2or organisms rele0ant information is a0aila:le from the comprehensi0e fres#waterecology-data:ase . 8mplementing rules for presence / a:sence of ta3a reCuires h7dro:iologists E e0entuall7 for all aCuatic organism groups such as macroin0erte:ratesB fishB ph7to:enthos and macroph7tes. !++!<.current preferenceB su:strate<B sapro:ic preferences and life parameters .< are a0aila:le. ACuatic Sciences >": 1!)-1"+.cological theor7 and communit7 restoration ecolog7.colog7 #: !)1E4++.WA_Delft !++4<. *olnar %B Burlando % and .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation measures and predict the changes in occurrence of certain ta3a or communit7 composition of stream :enthic macroin0erte:rates is an intriguing 7et challenging and interdisciplinar7 task.*olnar et al. .Lersion 4.ele0ant ha:itat parameters for :enthic macroin0erte:rates include current 0elocit7B shear stressB water depthB su:strateB sediment sta:ilit7B shadingB and ph7sico-chemical parameters .sea le0elB geolog7B pressures< are rele0ant . Hn a larger scale the h7dromorphological situation of a sectionB longitudinalB lateral and 0ertical continuit7 as well as catchment parameters . !++>. Biodi0ersit7 of stream insects: Lariation at localB :asinB and regional scales. %rofound knowledge is a0aila:le for the 0arious scalesB as well as intensit7 of parameters . A model to emplo7 for this purpose is 5AB8/A/ . . !++><. 1)) . !++4. /he description of aCuatic ha:itat in0ol0es the consideration of h7draulic and h7drologic information at siteB section and catchment scale .uro-Aimpacs.dfg-wasserkommission. !++$.or certain ta3a for a start< according to the a0aila:le ha:itats within a stream section has not :een attemptedB due to great comple3it7 and interaction of parameters. WA_Delft. Linson *. 2reshwaterecolog7. Stream ecos7stem responses to spatiall7 0aria:le land co0er: an empiricall7 :ased model for de0eloping riparian restoration strategies.2 and %off A@. %almer *AB Am:rose .9ohnson et al.feeding t7peB locomotion t7peB etc.uro-Aimpacs !++$<B which includes autecological characteristics of more than 1!.H37genB p5B 6onducti0it7B /emperature<.freshwaterecolog7.WSB WA_Delft 57draulics !++4.compare Linson and 5awkins 1)) <. Assessment of .e0iew of . . %rospectsB possi:ilitiesB difficulties and interfaces to other aCuatic organism groups will :e discussed in the workshop contri:ution. 8t is a step forward from recent researchB which attempted to model the response of stream ecos7stem characteristics to land use changes . 2reshwater Biolog7 #!: > +->)#. 9ohnson /.

Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents #1 of .

(K$s.". (2004)9 &loo$ :isC :e$uction . =. (2006)9 +n#lysis #n$ si"ul#tion o( nutrient retention #n$ "#n#ge"ent (or # lo*l#n$ river0l#Ce syste". Br#n$en. 4A40455 Bronstert..de Back to contents #! of .S. E6F =41 5F 25 ==6.) (2006)9 Be*irtsch#(tungs"MglichCeiten i" Kin2ugsge.iet $er /#vel.Gr. :. 2002).. Pots$#".le energies Moti ation . Ph.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 Da%id . (200A)9 + *#ter Ju#lity "o$el (or sh#llo* river0l#Ce syste"s #n$ its #pplic#tion in river . Position: :ese#rch #ssoci#te in # proGect on oper#tion#l (loo$ (orec#sting (S#1on (loo$ (orec#sting center D University o( Pots$#") Research interests: Develop"ent +!D use o( "o$els (or #pplic#tions in hy$rology #n$ #Ju#tic ecology. *#nte$ to le#rn ne* "etho$s o( $#t# integr#tionD#ssi"il#tion #n$ uncert#inty #n#lysis (ro" other $isciplines. +.. (urther interest9 rene*#. 0 ?he *orCshop *#s # gre#t opportunity to get in cont#ct #n$ $iscuss *ith young scientists (ro" si"il#r #n$ other $isciplines. 2102F. http9DDn. S. University o( Pots$#". K"#il9 $#vi$.#sin "#n#ge"ent. 01101 Dres$en ?el. #tten$e$ the NS< (or sever#l re#sons9 0 .#n$es#"t (@r U"*elt un$ >eologie 0 .erichte 15 &Mrster.e :iver. 0 .e!words: phosphorusB nitrogenB shallow lakesB model de0elopmentB ri0er :asin management 8n m7 recentl7 finished %hD thesis . *#s intereste$ in the o.n9$e9Co. .?neisB !++> X !++$< 8 de0eloped a model for simulating mass http://www. Bronstert. 10. S. Curr.t2erott. B Bronstert.. :iver B#sin M#n#ge"ent Iol. >. Pots$#" 200A). 3nMsche. fleAible water Lualit! model for shallow ri%er:lake s!stems .. <neis' D.#sp .dfg-wasserkommission. !o.D. /y$rology #n$ K#rth Syste" Sciences. M. B .Gectives o( the 3o<# *ith respect to (uture *#ter0rel#te$ rese#rch #n$ (un$ing opportunities o((ere$ . Current a!!ress9 SHchsisches .bstract . $#t# collection #n$ processing "etho$s.Cneis8uni0pots$#".$eDurn9n. >ocht.#n$eshoch*#sser2entru".urgische U"*elt.v941A0opus01666A <neis' D. >eoecology (Univ. pp.n0 resolving. http9DD***. *#s intereste$ in the opinionsDvisions o( the invite$ senior scientists concerning the perspectives o( "o$eling in their (iel$s o( speci#li2#tion. Post(#ch 50 01 =2. >eoecology (Univ. +..netDp#gesDho"eDvol=. -.y the Use o( :etention +re#s #t the Kl. +.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: <neis' D.ntl. 0 .y the D&>. PhD thesis. 1.neis Da i! <neis *1977 A7uatic 8cology Degree: Dipl.

!++!<: *athematisch-numerische *odelle in der WasserwirtschaftB 5andlungsempfehlung f'r 2orschungs. 8n this stud7B /.ntwicklungsar:eitenB Bundesanstalt f'r &ew=sserkundeB Bf&-*itteilungen !". .dfg-wasserkommission. Simulated in-ri0er concentrations of total phosphorus were used for assessing alternati0e management options in the light of the .!++!<B personal modeling e3perienceB as well as constraints arising from the targeted spatial/temporal scale of application. /his approach pro0ed to :e suita:le for large-scale applications.i0er Basin ./.A* relies on a strongl7 generaliDed transport scheme :ased on a discretiDation of the natural s7stem into full7 mi3ed and purel7 ad0ecti0e elements.de Back to contents #4 of .B !++1< are not predefined :ut user-supplied.4< 2inall7B /.und . BronstertB A. /he design of the newl7 de0eloped model was guided :7 a re0iew of e3isting water Cualit7 modelsB recommendations pu:lished :7 Bf& .Bronstert X 8tDerottB !++><.1< /. A summar7 of some of the modelSs ke7 features is gi0en :elow. 8n this lightB the use of open-structure simulation tools is recommended as the7 facilitate bpla7ingb with alternati0e process descriptions.A* aims at :eing efficient with respect to :oth setup and simulation.i0er is that the targeted bgood statusb with respect to phosphorus concentrations seems to :e achie0a:le in spite of continued % release from sediments if the full potential of emission control was tapped. Due to the large num:er of :iotic interactions and a:iotic control factorsB the reCuired full7 mechanistic shallow-lake ecos7stems model is not .. 7ibliograph! Bf& ..inDugsge:iet der 5a0elB Branden:urgische Fmwelt:erichte 1 http://www.!< A ke7 feature of /.A*<.A* was coupled with two catchment models specialiDed on the estimation of nutrient emissions from point and non-point sources. Although this is a clear statementB the simulation stud7 re0ealed a num:er of se0ere limitations of the modelGs predicti0e capa:ilities. /his approach is considered essential for efficient s7stems research since the model structure can :e continuousl7 refined :7 e0aluating residuals of simpler approaches and new data can :e collected more specificall7.uropean Water 2ramework Directi0e.eichert et al. Fncertaint7 anal7ses might :ecome more con0incing :7 using such alternati0e model formulations in parallel E instead of b:elie0ingb in a single structure and focusing on the in0estigation of unknown parameter 0alues. /he userdefined description of turno0er is integrated with the modelGs generic kernel :7 automatic code generation. 2or conducting scenario anal7ses with altered e3ternal loadingB /. . 2or e3ampleB the capa:ilities of geographic information s7stems are used for model parametriDation. 6onseCuentl7B it is :elie0ed that research should further focus on the identification of the bappropriateb le0el of model comple3it7 that :alances structural and parameter uncertainties. .< .ds. *odel de0elopment and application were em:edded in a research pro-ect focusing on options to ease surface water eutrophication in the 5a0el .and might ne0er :ecome< a0aila:le. 5owe0erB in generalB these are prereCuisites for modeling the impact of altered :oundar7 conditions on aCuatic nutrient c7cling. /he simulation tool is intended to complement eco-h7drological catchment models in studies on ri0er :asin management. /he main result of the model application to the 5a0el .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation transport and turno0er in ri0ers and shallow lakes . X 8tDerottB S. /he software was designed for efficient anal7ses of parameter sensiti0ities and uncertainties. Due to this aopen-structure approachS the modelSs comple3it7 is ad-usta:le to the present knowledge of processesB the amount and Cualit7 of data for parametriDation and 0erificationB and the a0aila:le time :udget. .eCuired :oundar7 conditions such as flow rates and storage 0olumes are supplied :7 e3ternal h7drod7namics or h7drological models.A* was used for simulating nutrient concentrations in a large-scale ri0er-lake s7stem e3hi:iting significant internal nitrogen and phosphorus turno0er.A* is its fle3i:ilit7 with respect to turno0er simulations. 2or e3ampleB the chosen turno0er model neither includes a mechanistic description of the seasonal succession of the plankton nor a process-oriented model of sediment diagenesis. /he num:er and kinds of simulated componentsB reaction ratesB as well as the stoichiometr7 matri3 . .!++><: Bewirtschaftungsm(glichkeiten im .

X BronstertB A.!++$<: A water Cualit7 model for shallow ri0er-lake s7stems and its application in ri0er :asin managementR %hD thesisB Fni0ersit7 of %otsdamR http://n:n-resol0ing.de Back to contents #" of .B Soml7od7B A.B ShanahanB %.!++><: Anal7sis and simulation of nutrient retention and management for a lowland ri0er-lake s7stemR 57drolog7 and .de/urn:n:n:de:ko:0:#1$-opus-1">"$ ?neisB D.i0er water Cualit7 model @o. A.. .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation ?neisB D. 1B 8WA %u:l.arth S7stem SciencesB 1+B #$#-# .eichertB %.B . .auchB W.dfg-wasserkommission. X LanrolleghemB %.B ?n(scheB .B 5enDeB *.!++1<: . .B BorchardtB D. http://www.

de Back to contents ## of .dfg-wasserkommission.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

nstitut (@r <#sser*irtsch#(t. /y$rologie un$ l#n$*irtsch#(tlichen <#sser.ni2 UniversitHt /#nnover. 'ce#nic ?ech.. 2 (2). ". 1 Q 5. University o( K1eter. M. Ier*orn.er. =0A Q =12.oun$s. *#ste *#ter tre#t"ent pl#nts #n$ receiving *#ters $i((erent ti"esc#les #n$ (orec#sting hori2ons h#ve to . $oi10. <r. +.#u.D.ine$ use o( point r#in g#uges.:. E6F 411 A62 41F4. r#$#r.mer' ". :#hi"i.#n $r#in#ge "o$els.:.062. :es. 2000).ereitung (@r $ie !ie$erschl#gsvorhers#ge un$ $ie Sie$lungsent*Hsserung%) Curr. 4QA Septe". Ph. /olt. ?hesis. <#t.ene(it o( r#$#r r#in(#ll $#t# is the possi.. Ier*orn #n$ +. >. "te)an <r. +t"os. AA (106). on )o"puting #n$ )ontrol (or the <#ter .nt. $istro"eter) (or hy$rologic#l "o$elling un$er consi$er#tion o( their uncert#inties.mer' ".de Back to contents #> of . Upton.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: <r. line#r opti"i2#tion #n$ hy$ro$yn#"ic "o$elling. #n$ ". . :e$$er (2004)9 :uno(( "o$elling using r#$#r $#t# #n$ (lo* "e#sure"ents in # stoch#stic st#te sp#ce #ppro#ch. su. 'ne .#n $r#in#ge Moti ation My (iel$ o( #ctivity h#s concentr#te$ on the "e#sure"ent o( r#$#r r#in(#ll #s input (or ur. 2006. /. <r.er 2004. no*c#sting #n$ ur.mer.ei. Position: :ese#rch Scientist. http://www.ni2 University o( /#nover ( Ou#ntit#tive :#$#r$#ten#u(. /olt. +. Ath ..0:. <#t. -. +. <r. ?ech.#n hy$rologic#l "o$elling. .0:. Ier*orn #n$ +."prove"ent o( T0. Ier*orn #n$ +.0ng. :e$$er (2004)9 . .0:.ei. 5th . /.> Upton #n$ M.nt. :07 rel#tion) #s *ell #s the integr#tion o( r#in(#ll "e#sure"ents (ro" $i((erent sources (r#$#r.ining r#$#r r#in(#ll (orec#sts. +. ". >. /. K"#il9 Cr#e"er8*#*i.ni2 University o( /#nover <#ter Meteorology Research interests: :#$#r "eteorology.#n$ *e#ther r#in(#ll "e#sure"ents. 5A 0 F2.. 2A5 Q 2FF. +t"os. :es. <r.. .#n *#ter "#n#ge"ent. )ivil Kngineering (.r#tion o( #n T0. "icro*#ve linC. Pr#ct.r?mer Di&l.ility (or e1tr#pol#tion o( r#in(#ll te1tures in or$er to provi$e runo(( #n$ (lo* (orec#sts.:."itte$ to the &#culty o( )ivil Kngineering #n$ >eo$esy ..#n$ r#$#r r#in(#ll esti"#tes using # "icro*#ve linC. /. &or the co".dfg-wasserkommission.ei.ng. <orCshop on Precipit#tion in Ur. Current a!!ress9 ..ility . AA (106). Proc. F#. ?ech..0:. 2= (=) =F4 Q 604.uni0h#nnover. Ier*orn (200A)9 +spects o( r#$#r r#in(#ll (orec#sts #n$ their e((ectiveness (or re#l ti"e control 0 the e1#"ple o( the se*er syste" o( the city o( Iienn#. A010 Dece". <r. S*it2erl#n$.mer *1974 Degree: Dipl.mer' ".mer. &uchs #n$ /.. Ier*orn (2006)9 +ttenu#tion c#li. Morit2.-.#n $r#in#ge syste"s co".ine$ control o( se*er syste"s.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6:9ng6 Stefan . "icro*#ve linCs #n$ level "e#sure"ents in ur. U3..mer' ". +t"os. . :e$$er (2004)9 )o".0:.0:.200A. Ier*orn /. BecCer (2006)9 Uncert#inty Ju#nti(ic#tion o( oper#tion#l T0. St. >ru". Proc. &uture i$e#s $e#l *ith the $evelop"ent o( #n integr#te$ r#in(#ll "o$el (or ur.#n$ *e#ther r#$#r using # "icro*#ve linC. )on(.n$ustry. :e$$er #n$ /.ni2 University o( /#nover.nstitute o( :esources M#n#ge"ent. <r. +. 42 (4).0:. Sci..#n +re#s./#rtung.ei. =1= Q =21. >ru". D0 =016A /#nnover ?el.e consi$ere$ #s *ell #s v#rious sources o( r#in(#ll in(or"#tion concerning their sp#ti#l resolution #n$ their reli#. +ppelstr. M.2166D*pt.mer (2004)9 +spects #n$ e((ectiveness o( re#l ti"e control in ur. ?his h#s involve$ the $evelop"ent o( #lgorith"s (or Ju#ntit#tive r#$#r $#t# processing in re#l ti"e (#ttenu#tion correction. r#in g#uges.-.

/he results . http://www.Aradar< with the 5B-approach. 8ts distri:ution in space and time is important for meteorological and h7drological applicationsB . /he resulting attenuation time series is shown in the figure left for the con0ecti0e rainfall e0ent on 9une B !++4. 5itschfeld and Bordan .figure right< demonstrate a high 0aria:ilit7 of the aB: coefficients. /he recei0ers were collocated with an M-:and weather radar antenna operated :7 . Between specific attenuation k and reflecti0it7 1 a power law k c a d 1: is assumed.aB:< has :een e3plored :7 calculating the radar attenuation .e.r< from the radar.ssen.5B< algorithm shows the well known insta:ilit7.r< with increasing distance . /he parameter space of attenuation coefficients .11) radar gatesB length +.!# dB :ounds .g.aB:< was found in +.> km ."$ &5D<B the link was aimed to pro0ide an attenuation reference .ainfall results from comple3 atmospheric processes and is the dri0ing force for h7drolog7.bstract 9ntegration of microwa%e link attenuation information to correct O:band weather radar reflecti%it! profiles . /herefore attenuation correction is not applied to operational weather radar s7stems and the PtrueT rainfall is continuousl7 underestimated.!# km<.!# dB<.).r<.1< effects on single raindrops for different drop siDesB shapes and temperatures depending on the radar freCuenc7.-1 relationship.e!words: radarB rainfallB microwa0e linkB attenuation correction .1)#"< addressed this pro:lem and proposed an anal7tical solution for the attenuation pro:lem which is often used in a modified 0ersion .1+.DSD< or historic disdrometer measurements are the :asis for integration of the scattering characteristics for different rainfall t7pes.aB :< is crucial. Attenuation coefficients found in literature and deri0ed from e0ent specific DSD measurements using the *ie theor7 are plotted for comparison. is deri0ed using an7 . /he7 concentrate along Pminute-linesT. /o in0estigate this pro:lem a dual freCuenc7 microwa0e link was installed.# &5D< operating close to the radar freCuenc7 . 1))$<. An optimal com:ination of aB: coefficients has :een accepted for each minute when the difference :etween radar and reference attenuation dmin c Aref .dfg-wasserkommission. 2or correction the choice of the coefficients . 1# e0ents ha0e :een processed in total which confirm the results.Delrieu et al._dmin_ e +.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation . /he specific attenuation k. /he attenuation phenomenon is se0ere for M-:andB :ut it is also acute at 6-:and. 2or each minute man7 aB: com:inations are found which satisf7 the o:-ecti0e criterion.de Back to contents #$ of .mschergenossenschaft / Aippe0er:and near the 6it7 of . /his results in a0eraged coefficients aB: which are uniforml7 / constantl7 used for correction. As a conseCuence the 5itschfeld Bordan . /his is mainl7 due to the effect of attenuation the radar signal e3periences when it passes a cloud of h7drometeors.r<B the radar signal e3periencesB is deri0ed from measured rainfall reflecti0it7 1a.unknown< reflecti0it7 profile 1.Aradar. Weather radars pro0ide this information highl7 resol0ed in space and time. DWD-A*?B flash flood predictionsB real time control of ur:an drainage s7stems<.con0ecti0e / stratiform< along the radar :eam.k< and :ackscattering . /he relia:ilit7 of Cuantitati0e radar rainfall estimationB howe0erB is limited.Aref< parallel to one radar :eam o0er a path length of !). /he7 ha0e to :e estimated :efore the correction is made. As a result the radar measured reflecti0it7 profile 1a. With one freCuenc7 . /he characteristics of the minute-lines show a s7stematic :eha0iour depending on the rainfall . /henB either modelled drop siDe distri:utions . /he common approach is to model attenuation . /his methodolog7B howe0erB does not work for the current rainfall and its characteristics as measured :7 the radar. /his error propagates when radar rainfall .r< underestimates the true .

http://www. /he attenuation correction impro0es significantl7 the Cuantitati0e radar rainfall estimation .dfg-wasserkommission. 9. 5itschfeld W. 9.B Lol.B 6aoudal S.rrors inherent in the radar measurement of rainfall at attenuating wa0elength. Bordan . 6reutin . 8n additionB the s7stematic :eha0iour of coefficients defines an a priori knowledge to de0elop an operational attenuation correction methodolog7. Hceanic /ech. 11B # E >$.D. and 9. and 9. Atmos.de Back to contents # of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation /he high 0aria:ilit7 of the results demonstrates that the constant and uniform use of attenuation coefficients is non realistic and the main reason for insta:ilit7 of the 5B-algorithm. *eteorol.1)#"< . Delrieu &. /he use of 0aria:le aB: coefficientsB in contrastB ena:les attenuation corrections up to >+ dB.M and 6-Band< and has a strong :enefit to meteorological and h7drological application of radar data.B Lol.1))$<: 2easi:ilit7 of using mountain returns for the correction of ground :ased M-:and weather radar data. 1"B 4> E 4 #.

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(ro" intensively (#r"e$ gr#ssl#n$s9 + critic#l note on "o$elling o( phosphorus tr#ns(ers. K"#il9 t.le (or #ll #pplic#tions.iCelihoo$ Uncert#inty Ksti"#tion (>.#nc#ster Knviron"ent )entre. (or e1#"ple. M#cleo$ (200A).elieve (#ce si"il#r issues. U3. #n#lysis o( "o$el p#r#"eter #n$ structur#l uncert#inty. Position: PhD stu$ent in Knviron"ent#l Science.. #" Ceen to e1ch#nge i$e#s *ith rel#te$ $isciplines *hich .de Back to contents >+ of . .dfg-wasserkommission. c#n o((er the perspective o( in(or"#l uncert#inty esti"#tion techniJues #long the lines o( the >ener#lise$ . thinC there is not one techniJue *hich is suit#.y!rology Degree: Dipl.kol6 4obias . E66 (0)1426 4F=4=6.ilis#tion *ith se$i"ent #n$ colloi$s through $r#ine$ #n$ un0$r#ine$ gr#ssl#n$s in cooper#tion *ith . /y$rologic#l Processes 21(6)9 44A0462. 'ur rese#rch h#s sho*n th#t this inevit#. #n$ ). . Dep#rt"ent o( Knviron"ent#l Science. se$i"ent #n$ nutrient tr#nsport #t plot to c#tch"ent sc#le. Ju#nti(ic#tion o( $#t# uncert#inty #n$ their incorpor#tion into "o$els.ility #n$ "o$el co"ple1ity #s *ell #s the Ju#nti(ic#tion o( "e#sure"ent uncert#inties .+1 6NO. *orCing on DK&:+ (un$e$ proGect PK01020 Phosphorus "o. +s # contri. Curr. . . +.et*een $#t# #v#il#.ly nee$s to inclu$e "o$el ev#lu#tion *ithin #n uncert#inty esti"#tion (r#"e*orC. nutrient lo#$ esti"#tion techniJues. Ouinton -. +n inter$isciplin#ry $iscussion o( "o$el $evelop"ent. .e suit#. *ith #ssoci#te$ phosphorus. Moti ation: .>K:.3eooe%ol. -.#nc#ster University.. . Research interests: Mo$elling o( *#ter. >eoecology (?ech. )K/ #n$ University o( Ply"outh. Current a!!ress9 . there(ore. #" reJuire$ to "o$el the tr#ns(er o( phosphorus (ro" #gricultur#l l#n$ to receiving *#ters. ev#lu#tion #n$ uncert#inty esti"#tion h#s gre#t potenti#l (or i$enti(ying techniJues th#t coul$ .Crueger8l#nc#ster. !.uC "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: <rueger =.ution to the $iscussion. U3 ?el.bstract http://www. Univ. #ctively rese#rching the interpl#y . in hy$rologic#l "o$el #pplic#tions.n *#ter Ju#lity "o$elling. #". the $#t# #v#il#.#c.. &reer -. University o( K1eter..le (or # given #pplic#tion Q especi#lly #s .#nc#ster. Br#unsch*eig.rueger Di&l.e "ore li"ite$ th#n. 2004).n "y role #s # rese#rch stu$ent in #n inter$isciplin#ry proGect on phosphorus tr#ns(er processes.UK). =o#ias <rueger *197> .#nc#ster University. Processes #((ecting tr#ns(er o( se$i"ent #n$ colloi$s.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6: eo. . .ility *ith respect to process co"ple1ity *ill #l*#ys . . .

8nstitute of &rassland and . http://www. /he focus will :e placed on modelling transfers of phosphorus from agricultural land to recei0ing waters . Acknowledgements 1 &ras% are %.6entre for .*.n0ironmental .Aancaster Fni0ersit7B F?<. *acleod . 5awkinsB 6.A. Schaerer . BolB %.&ras%< pro-ect1 funded :7 the F? Department for . ! *.colog7 and 57drolog7B WallingfordB F?<B 9.de Back to contents >1 of .3eterB F?<B A. &rangerB 9.. !++$<B :ut the arguments can easil7 :e transferred to other water Cualit7 modelling applications were we face similar data limitationsB uncertainties and gaps in process understanding.n0ironmentB 2ood and ."<B ##$-#>!. Hur points are:  Water Cualit7 modelling in practice is restricted :7 limitations on the amount and scope of data that can :e collected in the field to parameterise and dri0e models.Fni0ersit7 of . . /hereforeB the scale of application and the a0aila:ilit7 of field o:ser0ations should direct model de0elopment for a gi0en stud7 E different scales ma7 reCuire different models.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Data a%ailabilit!.B !++$. 2reerB /.esearchB @orth W7keB F?<B .Fni0ersit7 of %l7mouthB F?<B %. 5owe0erB making assumptions a:out the nature of these uncertaint7 components ma7 neither :e -ustified nor testa:le gi0en the a0aila:le field o:ser0ations E comple3it7 in uncertaint7 anal7sis needs to :e :alanced against the information content of the data and the le0el of detail reCuired :7 the modelling application. Worsfold . ?ruegerB 9.9.B Quinton 9. 8deall7B models should :e e0aluated :7 assessing the potential uncertainties in model structureB parameters and data.ural Affairs as well as in colla:oration with Swiss colleagues!.S.S. ?ruegerB 9.dfg-wasserkommission..9.9. @adenB &. Quinton . Quinton .2ederal Hffice for the .B 2reer 9. BraDier .@.n0ironmentB BernB SwitDerland<.. %rocesses affecting transfer of sediment and colloidsB with associated phosphorusB from intensi0el7 farmed grasslands: A critical note on modelling of phosphorus transfers. &im:ertB %.9.9. ButlerB S.@. 5ow can ro:ust process descriptions :e inferred from incomplete and imperfect field o:ser0ationsW A pragmatic strateg7 seems to :e aiming at the dominant modes of s7stem :eha0iourB where these can :e supported :7 field o:ser0ations E some model compartments ma7 :e easier to identif7 than others and for some we might neither ha0e the data nor conceptual knowledge to sa7 an7thing.see ?rueger et al.B *acleod 6. 5a7garthB &.e!words: data limitationsB scaleB process identificationB uncertaint7 anal7sis 8n this poster we will gi0e an o0er0iew of what we think are the ke7 issues in water Cualit7 modelling.A. Hld . 2reerB 9. BilottaB .   /o illustrate our argumentsB we will present data anal7sesB uncertaint7 anal7ses and modelling work undertaken at the plotB catchment and large catchment scale within the interdisciplinar7 &rassland sediment and colloid %hosphorus ..@. uncertaint! and process identification in water Lualit! modellingD the case of agricultural phosphorus transfers /.eferences ?rueger /. 57drological %rocesses !1.

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nst. 4 S. /houghB finding these structures or processes is trou:lesome. But the uniCueness of modelling results is often not gi0en due to the lack of s7stem information. ecologic#l "o$elling. (2006)9 PhreeJ) Mo$ellierung $er . . 2004) . 8n the first placeB computer models are a great :enefit in sol0ing mathematic mo-dels with high comple3it7.#. >eology (Univ. *ost of the modellers underestimate the influence on model results :7 using different kinds of mathematic approaches. =56A5.3eol. As a conseCuenceB transparenc7 is a ma-or o:-ecti0e of modelling. ?U0)l#usth#l Research interests: (unction#l ecology o( #Ju#tic ecosyste"s.!++>< discusses the necessit7 of de0eloping models that are :othB refuta:le :7 testing its assumptionsB as well as transparent :7 means of understanding its d7namical processes. >eology #n$ P#l#eontology. river . 10. 6arr7ing on 5illfs fundamental idea of model transparenc7B should also include technical data of modelling like numerical methodB :oundar7 conditions or discretiDation. si"pli(ic#tion o( n#tur#l syste"s #s ill0$e(ine$ process. principle o( p#rsi"ony. B Ste$ing. Hn that conditionB modelling is a :alancing of keeping the model as simple as possi:le and integrating all characteristic and http://www.et*een #pplic#tion (iel$s Current a!!ress9 . /hus increasing the plausi:ilit7 of modelling results reCuires the implementation of transparenc7 and refuta:ilit7 into modelling.#sin "#n#ge"ent Moti ation: non0uniJueness o( "o$el results c#use$ .. ?U0)l#usth#l.y uncert#inties in $#t# #ssi"il#tion. uncert#inties o( "o$elling in gener#l #n$ its in(luence on "o$el results.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6: eol6 /hristine . At the same time the7 are suggesti0e of :eing confident in its results. ?U0)l#usth#l. )l#usth#ler >eo*issensch#(ten B$. 5ill .y!rogeology Curr. .dfg-wasserkommission. Descri:ed :7 Hreskes .ni2str. $i((erences . ?.9 11401=6.e!wordsD simplicit7B transparenc7B refuta:ilit7B groundwater modelling Aooking at nature we find 0er7 comple3 s7stems influenced :7 and dependent on a huge num:er of parameters.ei. )h. But we will also find clear structures and processes that can :e used for understanding often not the whole s7stem :ut the main character of nature.er#r. )l#usth#l07eller(el$ (>er"#ny) "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: 3@.de Back to contents >4 of .!+++< parado3icall7 transparenc7 and refuta:ilit7 suffer with increasing comple3it7 of a model.ecC.übeck Di&l.bstract 4he principle of simplicit! in h!drogeochemical modelling . 5owe0erB the purpose of modelling is to understand the structures and processes that form the natural s7stem :7 anal7sing themB using less comple3 models. Chistine <6#ec% Degree: Dipl.! =FA0F A (/A) vo" M#i 1FAF. 8n this conte3t the de0elopment of computer models has :een :othB :oon and :ane.eitung $er !or" D. Position: scienti(ic co0*orCer.orversuche 2ur \Besti""ung $er B#senC#p#2itHt 3B 5.2 0 :ingversuche 2ur B#sisv#li$ierung un$ ].

B &round WaterB Lol. Although the 1D material flu3 model reproduces the raw water Cualit7 with a high conformit7B it is not meant to predict future s7stem conditions. /his is not generall7 a matter of non uniCuenessB :ut also a Cuestion of o0ersimplification.ach stream tu:e represents a specific area within the catchment area and a defined 0olume flow. ""B @o. A:stracting the transport of groundwater within the stream tu:e as a co0ered path lengthB the stream tu:e can :e transferred into the 1D space. in: Anderson *.!++"< implies a high grade of transparenc7B although the model attains a relati0el7 huge num:er of h7drogeochemical pro-cesses.dfg-wasserkommission.B %hilosophical 8ssues in *odel Assessment. 2or instanceB the descri:ed 1D material flu3 model implies merel7 a primiti0e temporal and spatial discretiDation. Hreskes @.B /he . $$#-$ 1B !++>. 5owe0erB the reCuired determination process is ill-definedB so the le0el of model comple3it7 depends on the e3perience of the modellerB the task formulation and the kind of natural s7stem. . and BelitD ?.arth Around.B pp. /o maintain transparenc7B the model refinement must compl7 with the principle of simplification. ?eeping in mindB e0er7 model is -ust an a:stract image of the comple3 nature that can :e wisel7 used as an instrument to formulate Cuestions and interpret signals :ut should not :e misused as a 0erification code of nature. <eferences 5ansen 6.B Wh7 :elie0e a computerW *odelsB measures and meaning in natural world.B /he %ractical Fse of Simplicit7 in De0eloping &round Water *odels.eflecting on that parado3B the determination of the appropriate le0el of model comple3it7 gains more importance. Hreskes and BelitD .de Back to contents >" of . and Bates %.!++1< descri:e the increase of the likeliness of non-uniCueness with the comple3it7 of a model. 5ill *. According to the task formulation further simplification of the temporal and spatial discretiDation can :e implemented :7 using Dones of flow times or generating a representati0e sCuare section. /ransferring the h7drogeochemical model into the three-dimensional space or coupling with the geoh7draulical model implies a non-reasona:le increase of comple3it7 and modelling uncertainties. /herefore an uncommon :asic approach is de0eloped to a:stract the three-dimensional space of the groundwater s7stem as Cuasi-one-dimensional image :7 using stream tu:es. 8n order to model forecastsB this kind of discretiDation is non-sufficientB hence a further de0elopment has to :e implemented. S. $+. >>B !++". .B *odel Lalidation: %erspecti0es in 57drological Science.B !+++ Hreskes @.B Wile7B !++1. >B pp. 6. Sci. B7 means of starting with a 0er7 simple model and stepwise integrating more interacting processesB the model maintains comprehensi:le. But at the same time the 0alidit7 of the model forecast decreases with increasing le0el of simplification. 2or e3ampleB the strateg7 of modelling h7drogeochemical groundwater s7stems de0eloped :7 5ansen and 0an Berk .B .etracing the de0elopment of raw water Cualit7 in water works appl7ing reacti0e controlled material flu3 anal7ses. http://www. &. and 0an Berk W.B ACu.B Lol. in: Schneidermann 9.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation dominating processes.!B 2reeman X 6o. D.

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Kcologic#l Mo$elling 205.ico . Bronstert. (2006) 3/ 4rocess-*ased "odelling o) reservoir sedi"entation: a case study )or the Barasona 'eservoir in %$ain2 )on(erence Procee$ing :iver &lo* 2006. +. %$atial varia*ility o) soil and nutrient characteristics o) se"i-arid grasslands and shru*lands+ ..e!wordsD 0egetation d7namicsR erosionR h7drological modelling Legetation d7namics pla7s a 0ital role for the redistri:ution processes of water and sediment http://www.n9 :e$ucing the Iulner#. Bochu". Mueller. Kcohy$rology K. MSc in !online#r Dyn#"ics (2001). Bronstert. veget#tion0ch#nge $yn#"ics (ecohy$rology) Moti ation Current a!!ress9 . Position: Post0$oc position *ithin the SKS+M0ProGect #t the . -ourn#l o( /y$r#ulic Kngineering K. Dipl. P#rsons (200A) (he sta*ility o) vegetation *oundaries and the $ro$agation o) deserti)ication in the A"erican %outh est: A "odelling a$$roach. >@ntner. -.er 2006). ). ?el. :.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: K. Bronstert.ornada Basin+ -e Me. M@ller.dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents >> of . >#rci#. >. !.y!rology Curr.0. BooC ch#pter . -. in press) Auto"ated Catena-*ased /iscretisation o) Landsca$es )or %e"i-distri*uted 0ydrological Modelling. !. K. !. &r#ncCe.ntern#tion#l Sy"posiu" on . B#t#ll#. overl#n$ (lo* $yn#"ics #n$ soil erosion in #ri$ #n$ se"i0 #ri$ environ"ents. +. . se$i"ent0 #n$ nutrient tr#nsport processes. >er"#ny. +. 166A6 Pots$#". Universit Pots$#". M#"e$e. K. <#in*right.#l )h#nge. M@ller (200A) 1nvestigating erosion and sedi"ent trans$ort )ro" head. -. University o( Pots$#" Research interests: Mo$elling o( c#tch"ent hy$rology. :.on Sept. F10101 K.l. . . +. -.102FD2006<:004006. =1A. . (2006) /ryland river "odelling o) ater and sedi"ent )lu. Mueller. $ryl#n$ environ"ents. <#in*right. P#rsons (200A). 06 .+/S Pu. ?. >. Bronstert (in revision) Modelling *edload trans$ort during s"all )loods in a gravel-*ed river. B#t#ll#. :. !. $e +r#^Go.n(or"#tion Science +.ng. +.nstitut (@r >eoMCologie. M#"e$e. ). +. Mueller. !. K"#il9 ev#. &r#ncCe. M#"e$e. (200A.is. (2000) . +. -. >@ntner. M@ller. ). (he i"$act o) connectivity on the "odelling o) overland )lo ithin se"i-arid shru*land environ"ents. $e +r#^Go. !.Cnecht0Str. K. >er"#n0Polish Se"in#r ?ure*. +. +. . -. P#rsons (in press).aters to catch"ents to reduce reservoir siltation in drylands2 . +.!9 !#tur#l Syste"s #n$ >lo."ueller8uni0pots$#". M@ller. &r#ncCe.ie. -. !. B#t#ll#. E6F (0)==10FAA02FA4.ntegr#te$ <#ter :esources M#n#ge"ent. 3#rl0. <0F612. $eserti(ic#tion #n$ l#n$ $egr#$#tion.es using a re$resentative river stretch a$$roach. <#in*right.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 8%a -ora 3üller Dr. :. -. B#t#ll#. Mueller. <#lling(or$ (>B) >. K. <#ter :esources :ese#rch 6=. -. $oi910.ntern#tion#l -ourn#l o( >eogr#phic#l . 8 a ?ora M6ller 91975: Degree: PhD in /y$rologyD>eo"orphology (2006). -. Septe". -. ?. 26024.nstitute o( >eoecology. Po2n#n ?.ility o( Societies to <#ter :el#te$ :isCs #t the B#sin Sc#le (Procee$ings o( the thir$ . Bronstert. !.bstract 4he importance of %egetation d!namics in h!drological and sediment:transport modelling from the macro to the meso:scaleD the missing link . >@ntner. -.ntern#tion#l )on(erence on &luvi#l /y$r#ulics.

/esting the model results showed that the incorporation of connecti0it7 patterns into model parameterisation is crucial for model performance.SA* pro-ect .3port from Semi-Arid . /his is the caseB for e3ampleB with inter-storm d7namics and the functional relationship :etween ke7 model parameters such as friction factorB infiltration rateB e0aporation and 0egetation co0er. /wo case studies are presented that signif7 the importance of the representation of 0egetation d7namics in h7drological and erosion models at the micro.*ueller et al.and mesoscale. Anal7sis of a multi-scale field data set showed that shru:lands are characterised :7 lower friction factorsB infiltration rates and nutrient content in the interconnected intershru: areas in comparison with higher 0alues within shru: patches. /he modelling stud7 led to the formulation of a no0el h7pothesis regarding the ongoing degradation of grasslands . Hn the contrar7B a 0egetation :oundar7 has a potential for insta:ilit7 when the grassland acCuires a competiti0e disad0antage towards shru:land regarding water :enefit and nutrient depletion due to the com:ined effects of o0erland flow d7namics and some e3ternal stresses. !++$c<: it is h7pothesised that a 0egetation :oundar7 is sta:le when the following two conditions are met to :alance the lower resistance of grassland towards the e3isting en0ironmental setting with the higher resistance of shru:land. /he deficiencies of the current 0egetation implementation include the insufficient temporal 0ariation of 0egetation characteristics such as seasonal changes of http://www. /he first case stud7 deals with degradation processes and se0ere 0egetation changes through shru: propagation into grassland in a semi-arid desert ecos7stem in the south western part of the FS.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation resources. SecondB the grassland gains enough water resources from the upslope shru:lands.dfg-wasserkommission. /his poster re0iews the importance of 0egetation d7namics at different spatial scalesB in0estigates its implementation in current h7drological and erosion models and discusses the uncertainties related to the simplified implementation of ecoh7drological processes.1 km! catchments with a grid siDe of ! 3 ! metres :7 using a connecti0it7 approach that intrinsicall7 represented the pattern formations of model input parameters such as friction factorB infiltration rate and nutrient content related to the patchiness of 0egetation .Sediment . /he poster presents simulation results for water and sediment transport from a region with different 0egetation co0ersB ranging from semi-arid shru:lands such as 6aatinga in northeast BraDil to coniferous forest and agricultural fields in the *editerranean pre-%7renees.egions: *easurement and *odelling<B a D2&-funded pro-ect of an international research consortium dealing with sediment transport causing se0ere sedimentation of reser0oirs in Spain and BraDil. &rasslands e3hi:it a more homogeneous distri:ution of flow and soil resource parameters with significantl7 higher friction factors and nutrient contents than shru:land . Legetation parameters are descri:ed for each terrain component that take into account heightB root suctionB AA8 and stomata resistance and 0egetationdependent erosion parameters. !++$a<. /o test this sta:ilit7 h7pothesisB the implementation of 0egetation d7namics in the current modelling framework reCuires su:stantial de0elopment to include interstorm d7namics of nutrient c7cling and d7namic ad-ustment of h7drological and soil parameters as a function of shru: propagation. /he second case stud7 demonstrates and discusses the spatial implementation of 0egetation distri:ution for a meso-scale erosion model. 2irstB the soil depletion of nutrients :7 the action of o0erland flow in the grassland Done close to the :oundar7 is in :alance with the replenishment rates of grassland :7 nutrient c7cling. With reference to the ecos7stem sta:ilit7 and resilience theor7B the modelling results pro0ided important insights into the potential sta:ilit7 of the grassland-shru:land :oundaries as a function of soil-nutrient depletion and water-resource enrichment for the grassland. Spatiall7 distri:utedB process-:ased models were used to in0estigate the redistri:ution of water and soil resources 0ia o0erland flow within different grasslands and shru:lands.de Back to contents >$ of .*ueller et al. 5owe0erB man7 current modelling approaches for waterB sediment and nutrient transport neglect the reproduction of 0egetation d7namics. /his research is part of the S.*ueller et al. /ransport models were parameterised for +. *odelling of water and sediment transport processes are carried out for domains of 1B!++ to !B+++ km! with a spatial representation of su:-catchments with siDes ranging :etween # and #+ km! that contain homogeneous landscape units and terrain components representing indi0idualB characteristic hillslopes. !++$:<.

in press !++$:< T#e stability of vegetation bo%ndaries and t#e propagation of desertification in t#e A(erican So%t#west< A (odelling approac#B . @. WainwrightB A.de Back to contents > of .. *uellerB 9. 9ew 4e=icoB . %arsons . 9.. *uellerB 9.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation the parameters and d7namic linkages :etween land-use change and flow and erosion parameters. 8ornada :asin. %arsons . <eferencesD . WainwrightB A.and meso-scale in process :asedB spatiall7 distri:uted modelling frameworks to increase the predicti0e a:ilit7 of models in water research. 9. 2inall7B the poster discusses and de0elops ideas of how to include ecoh7drological processes at the micro. @. %arsons .dfg-wasserkommission.esearch ..coh7drolog7 http://www. WainwrightB A.in press !++$a<B T#e i(pact of connectivity on t#e (odelling of overland flow wit#in se(i&arid s#r%bland environ(entsB Water .cological *odelling . @.in press !++$c<B Spatial variability of soil and n%trient c#aracteristics of se(i&arid grasslands and s#r%blands.esources . 9. *uellerB 9.

dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents >) of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

/hese are superior to :oth the free-run model and SeaWi2S data. /he results are less clear for the nutrients.S.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 Lars -erger ACuatic .dfg-wasserkommission.8?B :ias correctionB ocean color 6hloroph7ll data from the Sea-0iewing Wide 2ield-of-0iew Sensor .@HB*< for the period 1)) -!++". Bernd Br'gmann !++" %h. A multi0ariate configuration is appliedB which updates the four ph7toplankton groups of the model as well as nitrateB ammoniumB and nitrogen detritus.bstract . in %h7sicsB Al:ert . Without :ias correctionB the prediction of nitrate is impro0ed in wide regions.go0< . http://www. 5owe0erB there are locations in which the assimilation is unsta:leB resulting in strong o0erestimates of nitrate.&reggJnasa.D.de Back to contents $+ of .instein 8nstituteB &olm and Fni0ersit7 of BremenB &erman7 /hesis title: P8n0estigations of 4D Binar7 Black 5ole S7stemsT Ad0isor: Dr.8? filter is used here with a localiDed anal7sis and simplified :7 the use of a constant co0ariance matri3. Wolfgang 5iller and Dr. in Applied *athematicsB Alfred Wegener 8nstituteB Bremerha0en and Fni0ersit7 of BremenB &erman7 /hesis title: P%arallel 2ilter Algorithms for Data Assimilation in Hceanograph7T Ad0isors: %rof.SeaWi2S< is assimilated into the three-dimensional glo:al @ASA Hcean Biogeochemical *odel . /he :ias correction scheme shows that there are significant model :iases in the chloroph7ll field. 9ens Schr(ter .@ergerJawi.de /2 !+++ *. /he results of the dail7 assimilation are 0alidated :7 comparison with independent in situ data. /he S.esearch Am 5andelshafen 1!B !$#$+ Bremerha0enB &erman7 phone: I") .colog7 /urrent affiliationD Alfred Wegener 8nstitute for %olar and *arine .ssimilation of Satellite "cean /hloroph!ll Data with 7ias /orrection for 7iogeochemical State 8stimation Aars @erger1 and Watson W. Dr.8? filter is com:ined with an online :ias estimation algorithmB which estimates the :ias in the model estimate of surface chloroph7ll. /he assimilation results in significant impro0ements of the chloroph7ll estimates. &regg! 1< Alfred Wegener 8nstitute for %olar and *arine .esearchB Bremerha0enB &erman7 !< &lo:al *odeling and Assimilation HfficeB @ASA &oddard Space 2light 6enterB &reen:eltB *ar7landB FSA .-mail: Aars. /he ensem:le-:ased S. /hese can :e estimate and impro0e the assimilation compared to a :ias-:lind scheme. 5ereB the :ias correction sta:iliDes the assimilation processB :ut results in smaller impro0ements of the non-o:ser0ed fields.e! words: Data assimilationB ecos7stem modelingB ?alman filterB S.Watson."$1< " 41 1## .

de Back to contents $1 of .dfg-wasserkommission.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.

L. /hese parameters are then determined for a 1"-da7 time period respecti0el7B so that seasonal changes can :e displa7ed. 2urther modules for correction of the e0apotranspiration with data for declinationB orientation and the 0alue for Al:edo 0alue of the surfaceB for modelling the inter-ception reser0oir and for modelling root water uptake reduce the a0aila:le potential e0apotranspiration to the reCuired parameters root water uptakeB potential soil e0aporation and ground le0el precipitation. 4$B D-)1$1+ &unDenhausenB oli0er. 2or this reason o0er the last 7ears a weather generator has :een de0eloped :7 the authorsB which supplements simulation tools with a corresponding moduleB for e3ample the program SiWa%ro DSS for the simulation of flow E and mass transport processes in the unsaturated Done. /hese parameters allows firstl7 a generation of time se-ries for unknown locations 0ia regional interpolation and secondl7 a generation of time series of an7 length.dfg-wasserkommission.grae:erJtu-dresden.nitschJtu-dresden. Background for the generation of s7nthetic time series for those 0aria:les in dail7 0alues is the anal7sis of a0aila:le long term series from climate gauging stations .D&21 e.de /2 !+++ E !++> !++" E !++> degreed engineer for water management at /F Dresden Dresden &roundwater .de 1 ! 1 .6-W.for the precipitation con-dition of a da7< and a Wei:ull distri:ution .@DA8@&.bstract >sing s!nthetic precipitation time series for transient flow model:ing in the unsaturated 1one Ben-amin @itsch X Hli0er ?emmesies X %eter-Wolfgang &rae:er 1 8nstitute of Waste *anagement and 6ontaminated SitesB /echnische Fni0ersit=t DresdenB peterwolfgang.<B second mandator7 internship and ela:oration of diploma thesis .kemmesiesJi:wa:o.de ! ?% 8ngenieurgesellschaft f'r Wasser und Boden m:5B Bahnhofstr.e!words: s7nthetic precipitation time seriesB transient flow modeling 8n the upper unsaturated soil la7ersB the water :alance is mainl7 affected :7 pre-cipitation and its intensit7. 5ea07 precipitation produces high infiltration fronts which result in a rapid mass transfer in the soil. /his has significant effects on the dimensioning of capping s7stemsB flood protection dams and on the risk assess-ment of the -udging of contaminated sitesB where so far the approach of a0erage water :alance 0alues has generall7 :een applied.de Back to contents $! of . 8n the practical applicationB it was possi:l7 to show that for PS'ptitDer BergTB a former militar7 :aseB onl7 :7 using transient infiltrations frontsB which are generated :7 the weather generatorB the concentration of contaminants in soil and groundwater could :e reproduced with http://www.for the amount of precipitation of a da7<. Fsing the s7nthetic time seriesB dail7 e0apotranspiration can :e calculated with the method of /F.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6:9ng6 7enBamin -itsch 57drolog7 /urrent affiliationD 8nstitute of Waste *anagement and 6ontaminated Sites /F Dresden %ratDschwitDer StraKe 1#B +1$)> %irnaB &erman7 phone: +4#+1-#4++4) .-mail: :en-amin. /he characteristic of these real time series is descri:ed with statistic parameters. Hn the soil surfaceB precipitationB root water uptake and potential e0apora-tion as atmospheric :oundar7 conditions ha0e to :e taken into the calculation. After a 0alidation and a trend testB for e3ample the pre-cipitation is descri:ed through *arko0-chain first order .for e3ample of the DWD<.esearch 6entre .

. $$. With their help we will in0estigate Cues-tions for the effect of climate change on the unsaturated soil Done. Anwendung s7nthetischer @iederschlagsDeitrei-hen :ei der Str(mungsmodellierung der unges=ttigten BodenDone. F.W. W&. Simulation in Fmwelt. of ASA. !++$.stimation of Weather &eneration %arameters.6. Wright.e-source . Agricultural and 2orest *eteorolog7B 4>: 4>4-4$> ./. 8nstitut f'r A:fallwirt-schaft und Altlasten &engB S.esearch 4B pp.B &r=:erB %. Water .eCuirement for . "4.! http://www. )4$-)"# . p.S. /rans.B 1) #.W.B Blanken:urgB .B ?rugB S.-W. 8n the further de0elopmentB the weather generator should gen-erate time seriesB which consider the influences of forecast climate change using data from calculated climate scenarios.esearch Ser0iceB A.de Back to contents $4 of . 8n the futureB the weather generator will :e used for Cuestions of the effects of climate change on the water :alance.@: A model for generating dail7 weather 0aria:les. Stochastic simulation of dail7 precipitationB temperatureB and solar radiation.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation sufficient accurac7. Data . Department of AgricultureB Agriculture . 1eitliche Beschrei:ung der Sickerwassereintr=ge in den Boden.esource .und &eowissenschaftenB Workshop Berlin !++$.eference @itschB B. 1 !-1)+ *atalasB @. /echnische Fni0ersit=t Dresden.B SupitB A.B %enning de LriesB 2. 1)>$.S. 1) 1.W.B and D. A Simple method for gene-rating rainfall data. Diplomar:eit.W. Shaker LerlagB Bereich Fmweltinformatik &r=:erB %."<B pp. !++>.ichardsonB 6. !++4.ichardsonB 6.. !4# .dfg-wasserkommission.und &eowissenschaftenB Workshop AeipDig !++>R Shaker LerlagB Bereich Fmweltinformatik . !+++.ichardsonB 6.A.. Water . *athematical assessment of s7nthetic h7drolog7.ichterB &unnar. 1) ". OSiWa%ro DSS E Beratungss7stem Dur Simulation 0on %roDessen der unterirdischen 1onePR in: Si-mulation in Fmwelt.esearch 1$B pp. .B ?emmesiesB H..W.

+ Ju#ntit#tive test o( the si2e e((iciency hypothesis . -..out uncert#inty #n#lysis #n$ stoch#stic si"ul#tions.nstitute. Pro(. 'iCos Pet2ol$t.rinCe8uni0Const#n2. + note on #. (2004).e#rning techniJues #. ?. /@. te"per#ture. B Rin%e' <.D. + "o$el #ppro#ch to ev#lu#te the e((ect o( te"per#ture #n$ (oo$ concentr#tion on in$ivi$u#l li(e0history #n$ popul#tion $yn#"ics o( /a$hnia. Pet2ol$t. ?. Curr. (#ccepte$). . Position: Post$oc #t the . 3. Si"ecol9 #n o. .i"nologic#l . ?.. M#in#ustr. -. B Peeters. (200=). #n$ /y$rosciences (?U Dres$en 2006). 242. (2004). energetic costs. Ierh#n$lungen $er . <.. Rin%e' <.. &. Rin%e'<. B MooiG.... ecologic#l "o$elling Moti ation: . Biol.derB *agdalena B %eetersB 2rank B &alB &ideon and .othhauptB ?arl-Htto 1 Aimnological 8nstituteB Fni0ersit7 of ?onstanDB &erman7 1 ! 1 4 1 http://www. 2001).M.bstract Simulating ph!toplankton communit! d!namics in Lake /onstance with a coupled h!drod!namic:ecological model . Rin%e' <. Post. #n$ un$erlying resource #lloc#tion p#tterns o( pre$#tor0in$uce$ li(e0history shi(ts in /a$hnia. /o* intern#l *#ves in(luence the vertic#l $istri. B Pet2ol$t.ution o( 2oopl#nCton. +$#ptive v#lue... (unction#l ecology o( phytopl#nCton. B Benn$or(. *#ter Ju#lity "#n#ge"ent "o$els. K((ects o( te"per#ture #n$ (oo$ on in$ivi$u#l gro*th #n$ repro$uction o( /a$hnia #n$ their conseJuences on the popul#tion level. Rin%e' <.. 3.dfg-wasserkommission. :othh#upt). S. -.i"nologic#l .i"nologic# ==9 p2F=0=06. Ph. (2004). B Uehlinger. D. ?e"per#ture is the Cey (#ctor e1pl#ining inter#nnu#l v#ri#.. . U.de Back to contents $" of . (su. ?.n$ivi$u#l #n$ popul#tion level $yn#"ics o( /a$hnia #t v#rying (oo$. . Rin%e' <. A5666 3onst#n2 ?el.ility o( D#phni# $evelop"ent in spring 0 # "o$elling stu$y. 'iCos 1109 p6=046. :o.iology 569 p=610=66. S. ). . -ourn#l o( St#tistic#l So(t*#re. Research interests: Kvolution#ry ecology o( 2oopl#nCton.iotic (#ctors th#t constr#in periphyton gro*th in #lpine gl#cier stre#"s. Rin%e' < B IiGver. &resh*#ter Biology 429 p1=A0166.arsten <inke Dr.. Rin%e' <.erg. Rin%e' <. (#ccepte$). &#culty o( &orest0..i"nologie 2F9 p=100=16. :olinsCi. (200A).M.nstitute (University o( 3onst#n2.ntern#tion#l :evie* o( /y$ro. <. >eo0. M. S. ?U Dres$en.?. IiGver.inkeB ?arsten R ..Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 ."itte$). /@ls"#nn. .y "e#ns o( # physiologic#lly structure$ "o$el. +.le inter$isciplin#ry proGect i$e#s Current a!!ress9 University o( 3onst#n2. -. Str#ile. Pet2ol$t. E6F A4=1 552F=0. "eeting scientists (ro" other $isciplines (or possi. #n$ (ish pre$#tion9 # "o$el #ppro#ch. (2001)..inson. /@ls"#nn. K"#il9 C#rsten.$e "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: Sch#l#u.ner.. B MooiG. 3Mnig0:inCe.orCe. Kcologic#l Mo$elling 1569 p=260=66. B Benn$or(.erg.Gect0oriente$ (r#"e*orC (or ecologic#l "o$eling in :. <arsten Rin%e *1975 A7uatic 8cology Degree: Biologist (Dipl.ntern#tion#len Iereinigung (@r . .

S*-6A.DY* . %ro:lems arise due to high 0aria:ilit7 in measurements of ph7siological rates and ph7siological plasticit7 of the organisms.for 2ig.DY* .de<.ngeneeringB Fni0ersit7 of StuttgartB &erman7 4 ?inneret Aimnological 8nstituteB *igdalB 8srael .org.1< is de0eloped ena:ling to perform online-simulations and scenario anal7ses with a coupled h7drod7namic-ecological model.:odenseeonline.. 8n an attempt to pro0ide a model-:ased decision support s7stem for water managerns of Aake 6onstance the BodenseeHnline-pro-ect was initiated.mail addresses: magdalenagederJwe:. Aong-term simulations with the coupled model DY.ilB karl.de Back to contents $# of .S*< or a threedimensional h7drod7namic model . 5owe0erB :esides uncertainties in the meteorological and h7drological forcing factors the ph7siological characterisation of the functional ph7toplankton groups remains puDDling. /he current realisation with four groups ma7 represent a compromise :etween accounting for the pre0alent di0ersit7 and keeping the model tracta:le.deB galJocean.DY. /he pelagic Done of Aake 6onstance has :een studied e3tensi0el7 in the past and detailed data a:out nutrient and plankton d7namics as well as ph7sical properties are a0aila:le.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation ! 8nstitute of 57draulic . !: State 0aria:les of and included proceses in detailed information refer to our we:page at the ecological model 6A.peetersJuni-konstanD. Within this pro-ect a comple3 model s7stem . 2ig. !< is applied to this purposeB which can either :e coupled with a one-dimensional h7drod7namic .DY*.2ig. 1: Structure of the BodenseeHnline s7stem .dfg-wasserkommission. /he ecological model 6A.2ig.de ke!words: h7drod7namicsB limnolog7B ph7toplankton d7namicsB water Cualit7 management modelsB functional ph7toplankton groupsB longterm d7namics Aake 6onstance is among the largest lakes in central .2ig..deB frank.urope and represents the most important drinking water reser0oir in south-western &erman7. http://www. !< an ecos7stem anal7sis of Aake 6onstance was carried out and simulations of historical data were conducted in order to find an appropriate model configuration and parameterisation. Besides drinking water suppl7 the lake is also the recei0ing water :od7 of numerous wastewater plants within its catchment and is moreo0er used for recreational purposes and fisheries..DY* showed that the model is a:le to reproduce the t7pical succession patterns of the ph7toplankton and the d7namics of total chloroph7ll. 2or the application of 6A. 8n totalB a:out " million people depend on this lake in terms of their drinking water suppl7 and considera:le efforts ha0e :een carried out to protect the high water Cualit7 of the lake.A6H*<. www.rothhauptJuni-konstanD. /o account for the functional di0ersit7 of ph7toplankton four functional ph7toplankton groups were esta:lished and parameterised.

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though the :lue water component predominates in certain regions<. We also find that the con0ersion of land co0er for agricultural use has reduced the glo:al green water flow :7 ca. We show that glo:al agricultural water use is :7 far dominated :7 green water .Fni0.9achner et al.H.Aund%otsdam-9ena managed land<B which simulates the growth and a:undance of natural and agricultural 0egetation and the related water flu3es in a single framework . Bo3 >+ 1! +4B 1""1! %otsdamB &erman7 phone: I")-441-! -!" !! . We performed three different simulations: 1< natural and agricultural 0egetation with irrigation as dependent solel7 on computed :lue water stored in ri0ersB lakes and reser0oirsR !< natural and agricultural 0egetation with a potential irrigation assuming that enough water is a0aila:le in e0er7 irrigated placeR and 4< potential natural 0egetationB for which the green water flu3 compared to 1< and !< is determined. /his stud7 Cuantifies for the first timeB spatiall7 e3plicitl7 and consistentl7B how much water currentl7 is consumed :7 the .!++# 1+.esearch Domain %.D.Diplomar:eit< prepared at the /F Dresden 8nstitute for 57dro:iolog7: O*ethodolog7 for the Cualitati0e e0aluation of water Cualit7 models :7 means of measured dataP .dfg-wasserkommission.O*ethodik Dur Cualitati0en Beurteilung 0on &ew=sserg'temodellen anhand 0on *essdatenP< Diploma Stud7 of @atural Science Biomathematic at the .!++" .-mail: rostJpik-potsdam.arthSs 0egetationB differentiated :etween water consumption :7 irrigationB rainfed agricultureB and natural ecos7stems.!+++ E +).i.esearch .soil water e0aporating or transpiring through plants<.arth S7stem Anal7sis . Since on irrigated land agricultural plants use :oth :lue water stemming from irrigation and green water as infiltrated from precipitationB a method was de0eloped to Cuantif7 their indi0idual fractions.Sitch et alB !++4R &erten et al. We use the d7namic glo:al 0egetation and water :alance model A%9mA . #].a0aila:le in ri0ersB lakes and aCuifers< and bgreenb water . StudentB Department of &lo:al 6hange and @atural S7stemsB %otsdam 8nstitut of 6limate 8mpact .!++" E +#.rnst-*oritD-ArndtFni0ersit=t &reifswald ma-or su:-ects: Stochastic/StatisticB .< 1+.Dipl.B su:m. the amount of water reCuired to produce a unit of crop 7ield< http://www.B !++$<.e. /he simulation results highlight the importance of green water in glo:al food production and ecos7stem conser0ationB as well as the need for a focus on :etter management of green water resources.-Biomath.<. Hn this :asis the 0irtual water content of crops .colog7 Degree: *aster of Biomathematic .esearch *aster /hesis .B !++"R Bondeau et al. 2or the present stud7B the model was enhanced :7 a ri0er routing modelB lakes and reser0oirs as additional water storage poolsB and modules to consider :lue water withdrawals for households and industr7 .bstract 3odeling the agricultural green and blue water consumption and determining the anthropogenic influence on the global water s!stem &lo:al food production relies on :oth b:lueb water .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6:7iomath6 Stefanie <ost 57drogeolog7 /urrent affiliationD %otsdam 8nstitute for 6limate 8mpact .de Back to contents $$ of .!++# %h.de /2 since +$.

BondeauB W. Sitch . 2or a consistent assessment of human dependencies on the glo:al water s7stem new water stress indicators com:ining green and :lue water consumption as well as 0irtual water transport will :e de0eloped.!<B 1>1-1 #. /. SitchB S. *'llerB *. 0!.. 9achnerB S.B %. Ae0inB W. BondeauB W. S7kesB ?.B B. 'ydrol.ohwerB and S.. :iol. .eichsteinB and B. 6ramerB 9.!++"<B /errestrial 0egetation and water :alance h7drological e0aluation of a d7namic glo:al 0egetation modelB 8. Lenensk7 . AuchtB and S. SmithB 8. AotDe-6ampenB 6. &ertenB A. SchaphoffB F.dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents $ of . AuchtB W. /o e0aluate the uncertainties the model results as simulated :7 two different models . ?aplanB S.0aluationof ecos7stem d7namicsB plant geograph7 and terrestrial car:on c7cling in the A%9 d7namic glo:al 0egetation modelB Glob.A%9mA and Water&A%< will :e compared. 5. 8n 9ul7 !++$. <eferences BondeauB A. H. 1/. 1aehleB S.. &ertenB 5. Smith . C#ange :iol. 6ramerB D. 6.!++4<B . 5a:erlandtB W. C#ang. SchaphoffB W.1<B !")-!$+.4<B >$)-$+>.B D. http://www. SchaphoffB Agricultural green and :lue water consumption and its influence on the glo:al water s7stemB Su:mitted to >ater +eso%rces +esearc#. .!++$<B *odelling the role of agriculture for the !+th centur7B Glob. AuchtB *. %renticeB A. /honickeB and S.B S. &ertenB D. 6. AuchtB 9. SmithB S. Despite the important role of green water e3isting water stress indicators considering onl7 :lue water resources.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation differentiated :etween green and :lue will :e estimated and the 0irtual water trade :etween nations and regions will :e assessed in a consistent modeling framework. ArnethB A.

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M#in2 2006) Curr. P.ntegr#te$ +ssess"ent #n$ Mo$elling.en$or(DS*it2erl#n$.schu*irth8e#*#g. cooper#tion perspectives. >eology (Univ. '.e!wordsD *echanistic modelsB Ba7esian inferenceB ri0er ecos7stems /he intention of the de0elopment of mechanistic models of aCuatic ecos7stems is to test h7potheses on ecos7stem functionalit7 and to asses the influence of dri0ing forces. Sch*ei2er.nstitute o( +Ju#tic Science #n$ ?echnology. .iogeoche"ic#l #n$ ecologic#l processes in river ecosyste"s.. *echanistic models can :e used to support the communication of Cuantitati0e knowledge a:out processesB to optimiDe the design of field measurements or la:orator7 studiesB and finall7 to predict the future de0elopment of an ecos7stem under changing en0ironmental conditions including an estimation of the prediction uncertaint7.enthos co""unity $yn#"ics in the :iver Sihl. Position: Post$oc #t the Dep#rt"ent o( Syste"s +n#lysis.erl#n$str#sse 1==. . M#in2. A7uatic 8cology . Since these relationships are of comple3 nature mechanistic models 0er7 often tend to :e o0erparameteriDed so that it is not possi:le to identif7 all model parameter from the a0aila:le measured data.ntegr#te$ +ssess"ent #n$ Mo$elling. 2002).bstract /ombining data anal!sis and eApert knowledge in a mechanistic ri%er model using 7a!esian inference SchuwirthB @ele X . ?ele "chu$irth *1977 Degree: Dipl.de Back to contents + of . Current a!!ress9 Dep#rt"ent o( Syste"s +n#lysis. &resh*#ter Biology (in revision). 2reCuentist parameter estimation procedures reCuire a good identifia:ilit7 of all cali:ration parameters.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 -ele Schuwirth Dr. #n$ :eichert.ility o( "o$el p#r#"eters. U. +pplic#tion o( B#yesi#n techniJues (or the #ssess"ent o( the i$enti(i#..dfg-wasserkommission. S. .9 + "ech#nistic "o$el o( . .ch "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: Schu*irth. le#rning to Cno* other syste" #n#lytic#l str#tegies. getting ne* i$e#s. P. Ph. K#*#g9 S*iss &e$er#l .. #pplic#tion o( soil *#ter s#"pling techniJues #n$ le#ching tests (or the #ssess"ent o( cont#"in#te$ sites Moti ation: "eeting people. S*it2erl#n$. !.eh#viour o( inorg#nic cont#"in#nts in the environ"ent. e0"#il9 nele.nstitute o( Knviron"ent#l Sciences Research interests: )onstruction o( "ech#nistic "o$els o( . )/05600 Due.D. 3@hni. /his http://www. . Soil #n$ groun$*#ter protection. ther"o$yn#"ic "o$elling o( hy$roche"ic#l processes. With the help of mechanistic models it is possi:le to estimate transformation rates from su:stance concentration and organism densit7 data. &#19 E61 (0)66 52= 4= A4. A difficult7 with the de0elopment of mechanistic models for aCuatic ecos7stems is the reCuirement of a detailed knowledge on structural relationships and e3ternal influence factors.. M. Bo1 611. Phone9 E61 (0)66 52= 44 25.. K#*#g9 S*iss &e$er#l . Uehlinger.nstitute o( +Ju#tic Science #n$ ?echnology. Ue. >eosciences (Univ.eichertB %eter .ecturer #t K?/ 7urich.

i0er SihlB SwitDerland.dfg-wasserkommission.in pressB doi: 1+.ig%re 1< Concept for (odel develop(ent .eckhowB ?. .S.i0er SihlB SwitDerland. Despite the a0aila:ilit7 of a comprehensi0e data setB the comple3it7 of processes to :e considered e0en in a relati0el7 simple model leads to an o0erparameteriDed model that cannot :e cali:rated uniCuel7 with the a0aila:le data. We therefore com:ine e3pert knowledgeB literature dataB and the e3perience from other model studies with the information contained in the data to confine the model parameters as good as possi:le and to consider uncertaint7 :7 appl7ing Ba7esian inference. X .B and .B StowB 6.cological . &elman X 6arlinB 1))#<. .+!+<. http://www. 2reshwater Biolog7 .1+1>/-. /his can :e done with the application of Ba7esian inference .B StrenB 5.Schuwirth et al.8*H .S. . /he method of Ba7esian cali:ration of process-:ased models turned out to :e a promising method for application in aCuatic ecolog7B :ut it can :e easil7 transferred to a wide 0ariet7 of disciplinesB e.1))#< Ba7esian Data Anal7sisB 6hapman and 5allB @ew YorkB FSA. We hope that the demonstration of the capa:ilities of our methodological approachB which leads to a deeper anal7sis of what we can learn from model-:ased data anal7sesB stimulates the use of such techniCues in ecological studies.B SchweiDerB S.B 1))!. 2or this method identifia:ilit7 is not reCuired and it allows a consideration of uncertaint7 of model parameters and results. As a first step this model was applied to the .eferences: ArhonditsisB &. /his led to a successful cali:ration of the modelB an anal7sis of the gain of information a:out the 0alues of the model parametersB and an anal7sis of the uncertaint7 of model predictions.g. /he strateg7 for model de0elopment is summariDed in 2igure 1.+#.B ?'hniB *. /hereforeB it can :e ad0antageous to include prior knowledge on parameter distri:utions from further e3perience and literature in the parameter estimation process and to update this prior knowledge with new measured data to cali:rate the model.B su:mitted<.B.B h7drolog7B ecoto3icolog7B air pollution .!++$<: . SchuwirthB @.B FehlingerB F. .cological *odeling .B and .g. 8n this stud7 we used Ba7esian inference to cali:rate a mechanistic ri0er :enthos communit7 modelB .5. 2or 0alidation and e3tension of the range of applica:ilit7B data from more in0estigation sites and more ri0ers would :e reCuired. &elmanB S.A.i0er *odel<B de0eloped to simulate the d7namics of the most important functional feeding groups of :enthic organisms .ecolmodel. alB !++$<.su:mitted<.!++$.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation prereCuisite is often not fulfilled so that significantl7 different parameter sets lead to a 0er7 similar model output.B AamonB 6. Since processes determining the de0elopment of the :enthic communit7 are highl7 comple3 and due to multiple interferences with ad-acent ecos7stems man7 influencing factors are difficult to Cuantif7.B Binle7B A.utrophication risk assessment using Ba7esian cali:ration of process-:ased models: Application to a mesotrophic lakeB . /he future of distri:uted modelsEmodel cali:ration and uncertaint7 prediction.de Back to contents 1 of .B 6arlinB 9.B QianB S.eichertB %.su:mitted<: A mechanistic model of :enthos communit7 d7namics in the .u:inB D. We used process formulations at the lowest le0el of comple3it7 consistent with a mechanisticB and as far as possi:le uni0ersalB description of the ecos7stem. 57drological %rocesses >B !$)E!) .Be0en and Binle7B 1))!< occurring in man7 fields of en0ironmental modeling.Arhonditsis et.B..periph7ton and in0erte:rates< . /his is known as the eCuifinalit7 pro:lem .B.e. Be0enB ?..

de Back to contents ! of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.dfg-wasserkommission.

Position: &#chge. . U"*eltschut2techniC.et*een "#cropores #n$ the soil "#tri1.BA.A*A@@B.nstitut (@r B#uingenieur*esen.B 58@?..low in . ?he inter$isciplin#ry *orCgroup consists o( sever#l su.iet (@r <#sser*irtsch#(t un$ /y$rosyste""o$ellierung.iet <#sser*irtsch#(t un$ /y$rosyste""o$ellierung.esourcesB ML8 8nternational 6onferenceB 6openhagenB Denmark S/ADA...: Co(parison of a 4icro&scale and a 4eso& scale 4odel Concept for Two&p#ase .ng. .nstitut (@r B#uingenieur*esen.. 1==44 Berlin e"#il9 leopol$. 6*W.tu0. Workshop b%orous *ediabB Blau:euren .bstract Simulation of the rainwater infiltration %ia macropores into natural slopes Stadler A. UniversitHt Stuttg#rt Curr.B 5elmig ...ract%red&poro%s 4edia. the geo"etry o( "#cropores #n$ the soil p#r#"eters #re "ostly unCno*n.ilities #n$ li"it#tions o( our "o$els #n$ the uncert#inties in the use$ "o$el p#r#"eters. phone9 E6F =0 =16 A2625 "electe! Pu#lications relate! to the $or%sho&: . ?. SeCr. 0 )oupling o( &lo* #n$ De(or"#tion Processes (or Mo$elling the Move"ent o( !#tur#l Slopes% #t the ?U0Berlin (?echnic#l University). *e h#ve to Cno* the c#p#. ?his "#Ces "o$elling to # ch#llenging *orC.B 5inkelmann .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dipl6:9ng: Leopold Stadler Di&l.oun$#ry con$itions.B S/ADA.B 5. 0ng. X 58@?.B10B16.sur(#ce /y$r#ulics% *e si"ul#te the in(iltr#tion #n$ (lo* o( r#in*#ter in n#tur#l slopes.n "y su..st#$ler8*#hy$.: A Co(parison of 4odel Concepts for 4acropore 2nfiltration. Current a!!ress9 ?U0Berlin.A*8&B. ?he co"ple1 structure o( n#tur#l slopes. #" *orCing #s # young scientist in the D&> rese#rcherRs group L!#tur#l Slopes.0proGect Su. ?U 0 Berlin Research interests: 0 Multiph#se (lo* in porous "e$i# 0 )oupling o( so(t*#re D "o$els 0 M#cropores 0 Uns#tur#te$ 7one E >roun$*#ter E ?r#nsport 0 Mo$el concepts Moti ation .$e.B A.0. X %5A* LA@BS.de Back to contents 4 of . . ?o use "o$els (or si"ul#tion. >ust#v0Meyer0+llee 24. &#chge.y!rogeology )**K %5A* LA@BS. >.B Braun 9..dfg-wasserkommission. #n$ .e!words: *acroporeR AandslidesR Dou:le continuumR /wo-phase flowB %orous mediaB http://www.A*A@@B. . @eo&ol! "ta!ler *19>2 Degree: Dipl.erlin. ML8 6omputational *ethods in Water ..B &ermer ?.0proGects. the inter#ction . #n$ the $e#ling *ith uncert#inties pl#ys #n i"port#nt role.

-F& . /he group in0estigates the mo0ement and deformation of the slope 5eum(ser 5ang in . Since there is no o0erall simulation tool to descri:e all these processesB the coupling and e3change :etween different models is necessar7. *odels that use simple :oundar7 conditions to descri:e macropores often o0erestimate the infiltration :ecause the missing limitation of the water inflow into the macropore. /o simulate the e3periments with a two-phase flow modelB we de0eloped an e3tended :oundar7 condition model. &oal of the research is to de0elop new methods and simulation tools to predict the failure of slopes.water/air< in porous mediaB using the numerical simulator *F2/. /he D2& researchSs group # 1 @atural SlopesB P6oupling of 2low and Deformation %rocesses for *odeling the *o0ement of @atural SlopesT in0estigates the mo0ement and deformation of natural slopes.3ultipahse =lowB 4ransport and 8nerg7 *odel >nstructured rids<. Simulating flow through a single macropore using the two-phase flow eCuations leads to e3tremel7 small time-steps and numerical pro:lems. %rimar7 results of the dou:le continuum model at the http://www. /he simulation for the macropore is similar to a cascade of storage cells and reCuires an interface length for the e3change with the soil matri3. /he field measurement showed that the fast infiltration of rainwater in macropores at the upper parts of the hill and the resulting pressure increase in the lower parts of the slope pla7s a dominant role for the deformationB which might lead to a failure.:nit . /he flow regime in macropores is 0er7 comple3B in literature it is often distinguished :etween film and pulse flow. /hereforeB we use a so called Pinterface lengthT to :e a:le to compute the pressure gradient :etween :oth continua. /hereforeB a high num:er of h7drological and geoph7sical measurements ha0e :een carried out :7 the group. /he model consists of two continuaB one that descri:es the soil matri3 and a second descri:ing the macropores. /his feature was captured :7 the group during tracer e3periments with Brilliant Blue. *acropores can generate a fast infiltration 0ia the :7passing of rain water through mainl7 dr7 parts of a slope.de Back to contents " of . Also the flow regime is not descri:ed correctl7 :7 using the e3tended Darc7Ss law.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation /he failure of natural slopes consists of se0eral coupled and comple3 processesB so that for a prediction h7drologicalB soil-h7draulic and soil-mechanical processes must :e considered together with deterministical and statistical methods in order to take into account the a0aila:le data on the one hand and the 0er7 different scales in0ol0ed on the other hand. /herefore we use an e3ternal program that simulates the distri:ution of water in the macropore and the e3change to the soil matri3.Austria<. 2or larger scales this concept is not suita:leB thus we started to implement a dou:le continuum model. 2or :oth continua we use the two-phase flow eCuation with the e3tended Darc7Ss law. /he group has carried out a num:er of e3periments to in0estigate the infiltration o0er a single macropore. /o simulate the fast infiltration we in0estigate different model concepts for two-phase flow .dfg-wasserkommission. /he first studies with an eas7 e3ample of a natural slope ha0e shown that the e3isting concepts are not suita:le to descri:e the fast infiltration and :7passing 0ia macropores on a small scale. /he e3change :etween :oth continua is formulated with a function similar to the e3tended Darc7Ss law.

We plan to transfer the knowledge from the e3perimental scale continuousl7 to larger scalesB till the scale of the natural slope.dfg-wasserkommission. /here:7 it is important to distinguish :etween differences of the simulation results and the measurements. /he infiltration is coupled with the highl7 0aria:le rainfall and the generated surface runoff. At the large scale of a natural slopeB the assimilation of data will :e the main challenge. Since it is not possi:le to measure the parameters for the whole domainB geostatistical methods will :e used. /he prediction and the results of the model will :e compared with measurements on different scales. http://www. /he unknowns of the larger scale create additional uncertainties. During thisB the num:er of unknown 0aria:les increases rapidl7. /o handle the uncertainties arising from the different scales and processes an intelligent use of different methods is important. @ot onl7 the structure of the soil and the soil parameters like porosit7B permea:ilit7 and the corresponding soil-function parameters are often unknownB also the :oundar7 conditions are more comple3.de Back to contents # of .Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation larger scale look 0er7 promisingR the model can reproduce the fast :7passing of infiltrating water. Without the estimation of the range of the different 0aria:les and parameters the use and cali:ration of the model is not possi:le. /his makes it necessar7 to couple and e3change the data of different models to get realistic :oundar7 conditions. /he differences can :e caused :7 the limitation of the used model conceptB and the uncertainties in the used simulation parameters. But for a detailed e0aluation :enchmarks at different scales are necessar7.

Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation http://www.dfg-wasserkommission.de Back to contents > of .

Due to deficiencies in the soil moisture simulation of current operational weather prediction models . . Diploma thesis: /he effects of clouds on the radiation :udget o0er the Baltic Sea. Dissertation: Soil moisture anal7sis :ased on microwa0e :rightness temperatures: A stud7 on s7stematic and random errors. 6onseCuentl7B the soil water content can significantl7 affect the de0elopment of the local to regional weather. @umerical weather prediction therefore reCuires an accurate specification of the horiDontal and 0ertical soil moisture distri:ution.ADASB AandSA2B geoland. Since +"/!++$ . Since a glo:al soil moisture measurement network does not e3ist at presentB pro37 o:ser0ations ha0e to :e used.de Back to contents $ of .oot-1one Soil *oistureB %assi0e *icrowa0e . /hese two 0aria:les are coupled to soil moisture through the sensi:le and latent heat flu3es at the land surface.&! )AMB Fnited ?ingdom .de /2 1))1 E 1)) !++1 E +"/!++$ 5igher education in *eteorolog7B Fni0ersit7 of ?iel.e.dfg-wasserkommission. /he pro37 o:ser0ations are assimilated into the forecast models :7 means http://www. %h.emote Sensing .esearch focus: Soil moisture anal7sis in numerical weather prediction models :ased on passi0e microwa0e remote sensing data.uropean 6entre for *edium-.esearch associate at the *eteorological 8nstitute of the Fni0ersit7 of Bonn.ange Weather 2orecasts Shinfield %arkB .bstract Soil 3oisture . %ro-ects: .D.screen le0el< within the framework of the glo:al meteorological o:ser0ation network.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation Dr6 Henning Wilker *eteorolog7 /urrent affiliationD *eteorological 8nstitute Fni0ersit7 of Bonn Auf dem 5'gel !+B #41!1 BonnB &erman7 phone: I") !! $4#1+1 email: hwilkerJuni-:onn.oot-Done soil moisture go0erns the partitioning of a0aila:le energ7 at the land surface into latent and sensi:le heat flu3es and thus pla7s an important role for the energ7 and water :udget in the atmospheric :oundar7 la7er.nal!sis 7ased "n 3icrowa%e 7rightness 4emperaturesD Single:/olumn Studies with the 8/3W= Weather 0rediction 3odel 5enning Wilker1B *atthias Drusch!B 6lemens Simmer1 1 *eteorological 8nstituteB Fni0ersit7 of Bonn Auf dem 5Vugel !+B #41!1 BonnB &erman7 ! . student at the *eteorological 8nstitute of the Fni0ersit7 of Bonn. caused :7 imperfect parameteriDationsB uncertainties in radiation and precipitation predictionsB inaccuratel7 known soil and 0egetation characteristics<B modeled soil moisture 0alues can drift awa7 from realit7 and therefore need to :e regularl7 ad-usted :7 o:ser0ations.e!words: Aand Data AssimilationB @umerical Weather %redictionB . .eadingB .g. *an7 current operational weather prediction s7stems use air temperature and humidit7 measured at a height of ! m a:o0e ground .

/he goal of this new anal7sis s7stem is to impro0e weather prediction :7 more realistic soil moisture 0alues in the surface model.Young Scientists Workshop on Data Assimilation of an o:-ecti0e soil moisture anal7sis which merges the information of :oth o:ser0ations and modeled 0alues :7 taking into account their respecti0e uncertainties. Seuffert &. Accurate precipitation forecasts are particularl7 important for h7drologic applications like water discharge prediction in order to assess the possi:ilit7 and intensit7 of floodings.B %. 8. /he Soil *oisture and Hcean Salinit7 .S*HS< mission..de Back to contents of .andom . .Seuffert et al. %h. high insolation and weak winds<. DruschB and 9. thesisB Fni0ersit7 of Bonn. WilkerB %.g.:ased on an e3tended ?alman filter< which is a:le to assimilate :oth screen-le0el 0aria:les and microwa0e :rightness temperatures . WilkerB 5. Single column-studies with the new soil moisture anal7sis s7stem :ased on h7drological and meteorological data from field measurements and aircraft-:orne :rightness temperature o:ser0ations o0er parts of the F.D.WilkerB !++$<. 9ournal of 57drometeorolog7B #B #1>E#41.B 5. e3pected for the precipitation forecasts. 2ontB and *. *artinuDDiB 9. Liter:oB *. BergerB !++1: Soil moisture retrie0al from space: /he Soil *oisture and Hcean Salinit7 .-%.eferences: ?errB Y.emote SensingB 4)B 1$!)E1$4#.easons for this seem to :e imperfect surface scheme parameteriDationsB some onl7 roughl7 known 0egetation and soil characteristics and difficulties in deri0ing e3act o:ser0ations of soil moisture and surface flu3es arising from the measuring techniCues applied..S.uropean 6entre for *edium-. http://www.ange Weather 2orecasts de0eloped an soil moisture anal7sis s7stem . *ahfoufB !++": /he usage of screen-le0el parameters and microwa0e :rightness temperature for soil moisture anal7sis. WigneronB 9. Another pro37 for soil moisture independent of the weather situation and therefore increasingl7 under consideration is the land surface :rightness temperature at low microwa0e freCuencies.-*.-2. 5owe0erB the use of air temperature and humidit7 reCuires a sufficient coupling :etween the land surface and the atmospheric :oundar7 la7er . /ransactions on &eoscience and . /he studies indicate that the new assimilation s7stem is a:le to impro0e modeled root-Done soil moisture in comparison to o:ser0ations.B !++1< mission willB for the first timeB pro0ide satellite o:ser0ations at the A-:and microwa0e freCuenc7B which is :est suited for monitoring nearsurface soil moisture.B !++"<. WaldteufelB 9. 5. 8n preparation for the launch of the S*HS satellite scheduled for the 7ear !++ B the . .dfg-wasserkommission. At the same timeB howe0erB the modeled surface flu3es partl7 get worse when compared to the flu3 o:ser0ations. /he com:ination of the pro37 nearsurface soil moisture information retrie0ed from S*HS with appropriate coupled soil-atmosphere models can also help in assessing the water a:sorption capacit7 of the soil which also highl7 affects the risk of floodings in case of hea07 rain.g.rrors. state of Hklahoma re0ealed promising results :ut demonstrate that an accurate specification of the model and o:ser0ation uncertainties is fundamental . %ositi0e effects are e.S*HSR ?err et al.B !++$: Soil *oisture Anal7sis Based Hn *icrowa0e Brightness /emperatures: A Stud7 on S7stematic and .e.