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# Application of Monte Carlo Simulation to Multi-Area Reliability Calculations The NARP Model Any power system reliability

model using Monte Carlo simulation consists of at least the following steps: 1. Sampling of States The states may be sampled using random sampling or sequential simulation. The sampled state is defined by the status of all components comprising the system and the magnitude of load at various buses. 2. Evaluation of States This step consists of determining whether the load of all buses can be satisfied given the status of generators and transmission lines. 3. Estimation of Indices Reliability indices are estimated from the repeated use of steps 1 and 2. The stopping criterion is based on the coefficient of variation being less than a specified value. The NARP model was developed by Associated Power Analysts, Inc. and is being used by ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas). The basic model is described in the following section. In the NARP model simulation proceeds sequentially through time in hourly steps. 1. Each hour the status of every generator and transmission link is randomly and independently drawn according to the probability distribution of generating unit and transmission link states. The available capacities of individual units can be added to obtain the area generating capacities. 2. The load of each area is updated to the current hour.
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If all area loads are satisfied. otherwise the state evaluation module is called. Here the degree of statistical convergence is measured by the standard deviation of the estimate of the reliability index obtained from simulation data.load).3. Simulation is performed till the end of the year and statistics of number of loss of load hours per year are collected. 5. If there is a loss of load in one or more areas then this is counted as loss of load for those areas and the system and area loss of load magnitudes are computed. If no area has a negative margin (capacity . then the simulation proceeds to the next hour. 4. Let Ii = value of reliability index obtained from simulation data for year i N = number of years of simulated data available Then the estimate of index I _ N I = ∑ Ii / N i=1 and _____ SI = √(S2/N) = standard dev of estimate of I 211 . then the simulation proceeds to the next hour. 6. The simulation process is continued until the specified convergence criterion is reached. Convergence of results: An important issue in Monte Carlo simulation programs is number of years of artificial history that must be created to achieve an acceptable level of statistical convergence in reliability indices of interest.

The NARP model stops until one of the following criteria is satisfied. then further computation is not required. SI/ I is less than a specified fraction. you could restart the computations from the year of termination so that simulated years are not lost. SI can never be made zero in practice and so the computed value of reliability indices (mean or expected values) will always contain some uncertainty.where _ S = ∑ ( Ii . otherwise go to step 3. varies as the inverse of square root of N. These transfers are then input to the network flow module (described later) to determine feasible transfers and line flows. 1. The goal here is to reduce the uncertainty in the computed reliability indices to an acceptable level and to understand the degree of uncertainty that remains. that is. _ 2. A loss sharing policy has also been implemented but is not described here to keep the discussion simple.I )2 /N N 2 i=1 _ Note that standard dev of I . Clearly. an area will provide emergency assistance to other areas only to the extent of its surplus capacity. 2. State evaluation module: The following description assumes no loss sharing policy between areas. 212 . 1. The NARP model is so structured that if criterion 1 is satisfied and the computations terminate. If the load in each area can be satisfied by the capacity in each area together with the feasible scheduled transfers determined in step 1. Max number of years specified. The scheduled transfers due to firm contracts and jointly owned units are algebraically added to determine the net scheduled transfers.

and line capacity limits are modified by the flows due to scheduled transfers. Then DC load flow model is called to make flow calculations. all negative injections are scaled down in the same ratio to make these sums equal.First. Network flow calculations: The underlying model in NARP is a DC load flow model. This model needs both tie capacity limits and line admittances. The following description is based on DC flow model.3. The network flow model is called to determine the loss of load. If the sum of negative injections is greater than the sum of positive injections. easily replaced by capacity flow model if preferred. The state evaluation model in NARP proceeds in two steps. all positive injections are scaled down in the same ratio so as to make these sums equal. the net injections are assigned to each area: Mi = injection at bus i = margin in area i = capacity in area i . The line flows calculated in this step are algebraically added to line flows calculated in step 1.load in area i Now the feasible scheduled transfers calculated in step 1 are subtracted from the net injections. 1. however. This can be. This model is usually expressed by the equation Bθ=M 213 . Stage 1: Heuristic method If the sum of positive injections is greater than the sum of negative injections.

then a feasible flow has been found otherwise the program proceeds to the next stage to find a feasible flow. Mathematically the formulation is Loss of load = Min ∑ Ci subject to: B θ + G +C =D 214 .θi ) bij If the flows are within the tie capacity constraints.where B matrix is such that bij = ijth element of B =-(susceptance between nodes i and j) if i ≠ j bii = sum of susceptances connected to node i. Stage 2: Linear programming If a feasible solution is not found in stage 1 then network flow module enters the optimization phase. The optimization procedure is based on LP and it assigns positive margins or curtails negative margins so as to minimize the pool loss of load. θ = node voltage angle vector and M = bus injection vector The line flow from node i to node j is given by fij = (θj .

Fr = forward and reverse tie capacities F and S are related to tie line susceptances by the equation fij = (θj .G ≤ Gmax C≤D F ≤ Ff -F ≤ Fr S ≤ Smax where G = vector of positive injections D = vector of negative injections C = vector of negative injection curtailments Ci = ith element of C S = vector of sum of flows at nodes F= vector of flows Gmax = vector of max available net positive injections Smax = max flow values of flows at node s Ff.θI ) bij 215 .