3/15/2014

Regression toward the mean - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Regression toward the mean
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.[1][2][3] To avoid making wrong inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data. The conditions under which regression toward the mean occurs depend on the way the term is mathematically defined. Sir Francis Galton first observed the phenomenon in the context of simple linear regression of data points. However, a less restrictive approach is possible. Regression towards the mean can be defined for any bivariate distribution with identical marginal distributions. Two such definitions exist.[4] One definition accords closely with the common usage of the term “regression towards the mean”. Not all such bivariate distributions show regression towards the mean under this definition. However, all such bivariate distributions show regression towards the mean under the other definition. Historically, what is now called regression toward the mean has also been called reversion to the mean and reversion to mediocrity. In finance, the term mean reversion has a different meaning. Jeremy Siegel uses it to describe a financial time series in which "returns can be very unstable in the short run but very stable in the long run." More quantitatively, it is one in which the standard deviation of average annual returns declines faster than the inverse of the holding period, implying that the process is not a random walk, but that periods of lower returns are systematically followed by compensating periods of higher returns.[5]

Contents
1 Conceptual background 2 History 3 Importance 3.1 Misunderstandings 3.2 Regression fallacies 4 Other statistical phenomena 5 Definition for simple linear regression of data points 6 Definitions for bivariate distribution with identical marginal distributions 6.1 Restrictive definition 6.1.1 Theorem 6.2 General definition 7 See also 8 Notes 9 References 10 External links

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

1/11

and the best performers on the first day will tend to do worse on the second day. Rather. it will be shorter than its parents by some factor (which. Some of the lucky students on the first test will be lucky again on the second test. Suppose that all students choose randomly on all questions. Galton wrote that. the mean score would again be expected to be close to 50.. For the first test. the characteristics in the offspring regress towards a mediocre point (a point which has since been identified as the mean). http://en. the subset of students scoring above average would be composed of those who were skilled and had not especially bad luck. A class of students takes two editions of the same test on two successive days. while the skilled will have a second chance to have bad luck. he was able to quantify regression to the mean. It has frequently been observed that the worst performers on the first day will tend to improve their scores on the second day. the free encyclopedia Conceptual background Consider a simple example: a class of students takes a 100-item true/false test on a subject. then all students would be expected to score the same on the second test as they scored on the original test. Galton estimated this coefficient to be about 2/3: the height of an individual will measure around a midpoint that is two thirds of the parents’ deviation from the population average. some students will score substantially above 50 and some substantially below 50 just by chance. The phenomenon occurs because student scores are determined in part by underlying ability and in part by chance. Similarly. “the average regression of the offspring is a constant fraction of their respective mid-parental deviations”.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . On a retest of this subset.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 2/11 . and there would be no regression toward the mean. the unskilled will be unlikely to repeat their lucky break. If there were no luck (good or bad) or random guessing involved in the answers supplied by students to the test questions. Therefore a student who was lucky on the first test is more likely to have a worse score on the second test than a better score. together with those who were unskilled. but were extremely lucky. In this case. If one takes only the top scoring 10% of the students and gives them a second test on which they again choose randomly on all items. Thus the mean of these students would “regress” all the way back to the mean of all students who took the original test. height) in parents are not passed on completely to their offspring. on average. If its parents are each two inches taller than the averages for men and women. and score more than their ability. but more of them will have (for them) average or below average scores. and estimate the size of the effect. Hence. No matter what a student scores on the original test. By measuring the heights of hundreds of people. History The concept of regression comes from genetics and was popularized by Sir Francis Galton during the late 19th century with the publication of Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature. The following is a second example of regression toward the mean.wikipedia. For height. students who score less than the mean on the first test will tend to see their scores increase on the second test. some will be lucky. those who did well previously are unlikely to do quite as well in the second test even if the original cannot be replicated.[6] Galton observed that extreme characteristics (e. Then.Wikipedia. Most realistic situations fall between these two extremes: for example. Naturally. one might consider exam scores as a combination of skill and luck. and some will be unlucky and score less than their ability. This means that the difference between a child and its parents for some characteristic is proportional to its parents' deviation from typical people in the population. today. each student’s score would be a realization of one of a set of independent and identically distributed random variables. the best prediction of his score on the second test is 50. we would call one minus the regression coefficient) times two inches. with an expected mean of 50.g.

the free encyclopedia Galton coined the term regression to describe an observable fact in the inheritance of multi-factorial quantitative genetic traits: namely that the offspring of parents who lie at the tails of the distribution will tend to lie closer to the centre. the test group would be expected to show an improvement on their next physical exam. The phenomenon is better understood if we assume that the inherited trait (e. in these circumstances it may be considered unfair to have a control group of disadvantaged children whose special needs are ignored. height) is controlled by a large number of recessive genes. until they cease to differ from any equally numerous sample taken at haphazard from the race at large.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 3/11 .Wikipedia. The intervention could be a change in diet. Even if the interventions are worthless. Speaking generally. the more numerous and varied will his ancestry become. But the loci which carry these mutations are not necessarily shared between two tall individuals.”[6] This is incorrect. He quantified this trend. There is no generation-skipping in genetic material: any genetic material from earlier ancestors than the parents must have passed through the parents. In addition. a group of disadvantaged children could be tested to identify the ones with most college potential. Importance Regression toward the mean is a significant consideration in the design of experiments.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . tutoring. and it may be used by modern statisticians to describe phenomena of sampling bias which have little to do with Galton's original observations in the field of genetics. The effect can also be exploited for general inference and estimation. the further his genealogy goes back. The best performing mutual fund over the last three years is more likely to see relative performance decline than improve over the next three years. which make offspring of exceptional parents even more likely to be closer to the average than their parents. their average scores may well be less when the test is repeated a year later. A mathematical calculation for shrinkage can adjust for this effect. The treatment would then be judged effective only if the treatment group improves more than the control group. Alternatively. thus laying the groundwork for much of modern statistical modelling. He stated: “A child inherits partly from his parents. since a child receives its genetic makeup exclusively from its parents. counseling and computers. The best way to combat this effect is to divide the group randomly into a treatment group that receives the treatment. The top 1% could be identified and supplied with special enrichment courses.. as compared to today. The most successful http://en. the term "regression to the mean" is now often used to describe completely different phenomena in which an initial sampling bias may disappear as new.000 individuals of a similar age who were examined and scored on the risk of experiencing a heart attack. Even if the program is effective. but also subject to environmental influences during development. Galton's explanation for the regression phenomenon he observed is now known to be incorrect. and if these individuals mate. partly from his ancestors. or larger samples display sample means that are closer to the true underlying population mean. because of regression toward the mean. height is not entirely genetically determined. and a control group that does not. Exceptionally tall individuals must be homozygous for increased height mutations on a large proportion of these loci. Take a hypothetical example of 1. the mean. their offspring will be on average homozygous for "tall" mutations on fewer loci than either of their parents. exercise.wikipedia. The hottest place in the country today is more likely to be cooler tomorrow than hotter. and in doing so invented linear regression analysis. the term "regression" has taken on a variety of meanings. repeated. although it will not be as reliable as the control group method (see also Stein's example). However. or a drug treatment. which is best thought of as a combination of a binomially distributed process of inheritance (plus normally distributed environmental influences). In sharp contrast to this population genetic phenomenon of regression to the mean. Since then. of the distribution.g. Statistics could be used to measure the success of an intervention on the 50 who were rated at the greatest risk.

as opposed to being determined by the student's academic ability or being a "true value". on average.[citation needed ] Such a decision was a mistake.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . The effect is the exact reverse of regression toward the mean. A student with the worst score on the test on the first day will not necessarily increase his score substantially on the second day due to the effect. because regression toward the mean is not based on cause and effect. It is possible for changes between the measurement times to augment. To the extent that a score is determined randomly. The baseball player with the greatest batting average by the All-Star break is more likely to have a lower average than a higher average over the second half of the season. Misunderstandings The concept of regression toward the mean can be misused very easily. we expect the average distance from the mean to be the same on both sets of measurements. it was assumed implicitly that what was being measured did not change between the two measurements.wikipedia. the second sample of measurements will be no closer to the mean than the first. And if we compare the best student on the first day to the best student on the second day. but for all individuals. would have a strong incentive to study and concentrate while taking the test. regression toward the mean works equally well in both directions. regardless of whether it is the same individual or not. some will be higher and some will be lower. and might score worse on average the second time. Although extreme individual measurements regress toward the mean. Consider the students again. The students that received praise for good work were noticed to do more poorly on the next measure.Wikipedia. than their expectations. Then the students who scored under 70 the first time would have no incentive to do well. but rather on random error in a natural distribution around a mean. we expect the second score to be closer to the mean than the first score. The educators decided to stop praising and keep punishing on this basis. on the other hand. Related to the point above. We expect the student with the highest test score on the second day to have done worse on the first day. A classic mistake in this regard was in education. This will make the second set of measurements farther from the mean. or that a score has random variation or error. The students just over 70. and the students who were punished for poor work were noticed to do better on the next measure. the worst scorers improve. and a student who scored 70 the first day is expected to score 71 the second day. and exactly offsets it. the phenomenon will have an effect. But the second day scores will vary around their expectations. So for every individual. On average. there is a tendency to regress toward the mean going in either direction. so a student who scored 100 the first day is expected to score 98 the second day. Suppose their tendency is to regress 10% of the way toward the mean of 80. In the student test example above. however. Statistical regression toward the mean is not a causal phenomenon. Those expectations are closer to the mean than the first day scores. We expect the best scores on both days to be equally far from the mean. Regression fallacies Main article: regression fallacy Many phenomena tend to be attributed to the wrong causes when regression to the mean is not taken into account. but that is only true because the worst scorers are more likely to have been unlucky than lucky. http://en. that the course was pass/fail and students were required to score above 70 on both tests to pass. scores below it getting lower and scores above it getting higher. the free encyclopedia Hollywood actor of this year is likely to have less gross than more gross for his or her next movie. offset or reverse the statistical tendency to regress toward the mean.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 4/11 . In that case one might see movement away from 70. Suppose.

It was quickly noted that most of the worst-performing schools had met their goals. As in many cases involving statistics and public policy. So please don’t tell us that reinforcement works and punishment does not. the issue is debated.[citation needed ] In 1999. they do worse. pointed out that regression to the mean might explain why rebukes can seem to improve performance. the Department of Education tabulated the difference in the average score achieved by students in 1999 and in 2000. likened the book to “proving the multiplication table by arranging elephants in rows and columns. Secrist had only described the common regression toward the mean. the free encyclopedia An extreme example is Horace Secrist’s 1933 book The Triumph of Mediocrity in Business. and vice versa. When I had finished my enthusiastic speech. but went on to deny that it was optimal for flight cadets. there is no such effect. while praise seems to backfire. He said.Wikipedia. ” UK law enforcement policies have encouraged the visible siting of static or mobile speed cameras at accident blackspots. statisticians have pointed out that. Carmelo Anthony of the NBA’s Denver Nuggets had an outstanding rookie season in 2004. such as Brookline High School (with 18 National Merit Scholarship finalists) were declared to have failed. But I knew that this demonstration would not undo the effects of lifelong exposure to a perverse contingency. It was so outstanding. However.” This was a joyous moment. and then doing the same for numerous other kinds of animals”. For each school.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . This policy was justified by a perception that there is a corresponding reduction in serious road traffic accidents after a camera is set up. However. We measured the distances from the target and could see that those who had done best the first time had mostly deteriorated on their second try. it was also noted that many of the supposedly best schools in the Commonwealth. and in general when they try it again. schools were given improvement goals. and because there is regression to the mean. I immediately arranged a demonstration in which each participant tossed two coins at a target behind his back. On the other hand. in which I understood an important truth about the world: because we tend to reward others when they do well and punish them when they do badly. one of the most seasoned instructors in the audience raised his hand and made his own short speech. In fact. The psychologist Daniel Kahneman. and in general they do better the next time. that he couldn’t possibly be expected to repeat it: http://en.[7] The calculation and interpretation of “improvement scores” on standardized educational tests in Massachusetts probably provides another example of the regression fallacy. because the opposite is the case. they even have a special name for it: the “Sophomore Slump”. winner of the 2002 Nobel prize in economics.[8] “ I had the most satisfying Eureka experience of my career while attempting to teach flight instructors that praise is more effective than punishment for promoting skill-learning. in fact. without any feedback. the variability of profit rates is almost constant over time.wikipedia. For example. in which the statistics professor collected mountains of data to prove that the profit rates of competitive businesses tend toward the average over time. which began by conceding that positive reinforcement might be good for the birds. but “improvement scores” were not announced in subsequent years and the findings appear to be a case of regression to the mean. which the Department of Education took as confirmation of the soundness of their policies. I have often screamed at cadets for bad execution. failure to take into account the effects of regression to the mean results in the beneficial effects being overstated. Harold Hotelling. it is part of the human condition that we are statistically punished for rewarding others and rewarded for punishing them. One exasperated reviewer. although there is a net benefit in lives saved. “On many occasions I have praised flight cadets for clean execution of some aerobatic maneuver.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 5/11 .[9][10][11] Statistical analysts have long recognized the effect of regression to the mean in sports.

as sports are all about adjustment and counter-adjustment. but luck-based excellence as a rookie is as good a reason as any. ….[6] Suppose there are n data points {yi. following a run of 10 heads on a flip of a fair coin (a rare. while the law of large numbers states that in the long term.e.Wikipedia. this event will likely average out. where i = 1. For example. By contrast. while Bill James calls it the “Plexiglas Principle”. i. if one looks at the batting average of Major League Baseball players in one season. Because popular lore has focused on “regression toward the mean” as an account of declining performance of athletes from one season to the next. the next random event is likely to be less extreme.wikipedia. n. In no sense does the future event "compensate for" or "even out" the previous event. numbers α and β solve the following minimization problem: Find . Regression to the mean in sports performance may be the reason for the “Sports Illustrated cover jinx” and the “Madden Curse”. it has usually overlooked the fact that such regression can also account for improved performance. the free encyclopedia in 2005. John Hollinger has an alternate name for the phenomenon of regression to the mean: the “fluke rule”. In other words.) Here the “best” will be understood as in the least-squares approach: such a line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals of the linear regression model. regression to the mean states that the next run of heads will likely be less than 10. extreme event).3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . the straight line which would provide a “best” fit for the data points.[12] Other statistical phenomena Regression toward the mean simply says that. x i}. Similarly. the gambler's fallacy incorrectly assumes that the coin is now "due" for a run of tails. For example.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 6/11 . We want to find the equation of the regression line . and the average fraction of heads will tend to 1/2. though this is assumed in the gambler's fallacy (and variant law of averages). The reasons for the “sophomore slump” abound. while those whose batting average was below the mean tend to progress upward toward the mean the following year. (Note that a straight line may not be the appropriate regression curve for the given data points. the average will tend towards the expected value. following an extreme random event. Anthony’s numbers had dropped from his rookie season. to balance out. the law of large numbers states that in the long term. 2. but makes no statement about individual trials. those whose batting average was above the league mean tend to regress downward toward the mean the following year. Definition for simple linear regression of data points This is the definition of regression toward the mean that closely follows Sir Francis Galton's original usage. where Using simple calculus it can be shown that the values of α and β that minimize the objective function Q are http://en.

Consider a population of widgets.wikipedia. the bivariate distribution of X1 and X2 is said to exhibit regression toward the mean if. its left span (X1 ) and right span (X2)). with the reverse inequalities holding for c < μ. the free encyclopedia where rxy is the sample correlation coefficient between x and y. Let d denote the expected value of X2 of this particular widget. Definitions for bivariate distribution with identical marginal distributions Restrictive definition Let X1.) We have no access to the value of this widget's X2 yet. In this formalization. and that the means of X1 and X2 are both μ.Wikipedia.) If the following condition is true: Whatever the value c is. Suppose that the probability distributions of X1 and X2 in the population are identical.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . for every number c > μ. we have μ ≤ E[X2 | X1 = c] < c. If −1 < rxy < 1. (Note that c may be greater than. sx is the standard deviation of x . if linear regression is the appropriate model for a set of data points whose sample correlation coefficient is not perfect. X2 be random variables with identical marginal distributions with mean μ. then we say that the data points exhibit regression toward the mean. and denote its X1 value by c. Let d denote the average value of X2 of all widgets in the population with X1=c.e. X1 and X2 (say. http://en. In other words.e. d is closer to μ than c is). or smaller than μ. then there is regression toward the mean. equal to. d lies between μ and c (i. Horizontal bar over a variable means the sample average of that variable. (i.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 7/11 . Each widget has two numbers.[4][13] The following is an informal description of the above definition. The predicted (or fitted) standardized value of y is closer to its mean than the standardized value of x is to its mean. For example: Substituting the above expressions for and into yields fitted values which yields This shows the role rxy plays in the regression line of standardized data points. and sy is correspondingly the standard deviation of y. We now take a random widget from the population.

[14] Hence. and σx and σy are the standard deviations of X and Y. Since |r| ≤ 1. Hence the conditional expected value of Y. the free encyclopedia then we say that X1 and X2 show regression toward the mean." It is "restrictive" in the sense that not every bivariate distribution with identical marginal distributions exhibits regression toward the mean (under this definition). X2 be random variables with identical marginal distributions with mean μ. for every number c. if 0 ≤ r < 1. General definition The following definition of reversion toward the mean has been proposed by Samuels as an alternative to the more restrictive definition of regression toward the mean above. then the conditional mean E(Y|X) is a linear function of X. respectively.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . along with the marginal means and variances of X and Y. This definition accords closely with the current common usage. In this formalization. Y) of random variables follows a bivariate normal distribution.Wikipedia. The correlation coefficient r between X and Y. of the term "regression toward the mean. as measured in the number of standard deviations. and μ ≥ E[X2 | X1 < c] > E[X1 | X1 < c] This definition is "general" in the sense that every bivariate distribution with identical marginal distributions exhibits reversion toward the mean. given that X is t standard deviations above its mean (and that includes the case where it's below its mean.[13] Theorem If a pair (X. determines this linear relationship: where EX and EY are the expected values of X and Y. respectively. evolved from Galton's original usage. Y is no farther from the mean than X is. is rt standard deviations above the mean of Y. when t < 0).[4] Let X1. we have μ ≤ E[X2 | X1 > c] < E[X1 | X1 > c].org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 8/11 . Y) shows regression toward the mean (by this definition). See also Internal validity Regression dilution Notes http://en. the bivariate distribution of X1 and X2 is said to exhibit reversion toward the mean if.wikipedia. then (X.

2307%2F2841583). ISBN 978-0071494700. including a diagram of Galton's original data. British Medical Journal 308 (6942): 1499. Cook. "Statistic Notes: Regression towards the mean" (http://bmj.2009.. G.uk/tol/news/uk/article766659. "The sensitivity of estimates of regression to the mean".ncbi. 13.google.html) 9. Michael R. PMC 2540330 (//www. Altman (June 1994). CUP. ^ a b c Samuels (1991).020 (http://dx.04. "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature" (http://galton. Francis Galton (1886). OUP. Introductory Biostatistics for the Health Sciences (http://books.1016%2Fj. ISBN 978-0-471-81472-6.aap. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Article. “Randomness: Catch the Fever!”. ^ Mountain. ^ Upton.org/10. Page 272.doi. H. 12. (2009). ISBN 978-0-19-954145-4 3.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 9/11 .nlm.com/cgi/content/full/308/6942/1499).S.M.ece) 10. ^ a b Schmittlein (1989) 14.co. 5. JSTOR 2841583 (//www.com/article. 28–9 6.. L.abstract). 4. ^ Hotelling. F. L. doi:10. PMID 8019287 (//www. Stocks for the Long Run. ^ Maher. Review of The triumph of mediocrity in business by Secrist.1: Estimation of regression parameters. ^ Stigler. doi:10. 8. (2002) The Cambridge Dictionary of Statistics.baseballprospectus. M. 7.pdf). B. ^ "Jeremy Siegel" (2007).wikipedia. (1886). ^ Daniel Kahneman’s autobiography (http://nobelprize.ncbi. the free encyclopedia 1. 15) 15: http://en. Significance 3 (3): 111–113. Accident Analysis & Prevention 41 (4): 861.org/10.google. Wiley-Interscience.2009. p. 28.G. ^ For an illustration see Nate Silver.nih. 11. Mishra (1988). ISBN 0-521-81099-X 2. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 6 (2): 103–114. Vol. (1933). H. John Wiley & Sons. (2006).com/content/6/2/103. Friis (2003). I.00179. 2003.museum/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2002/kahneman-autobio. Chernick & Robert H. pp. May 14. PMID 9261910 (//www.com/books? id=QRwuz6yA97oC&pg=PA272&dq=%22bivariate+normal+distribution%22+%22regression+toward+the+mean% 22&ei=TkxvSqiiI47okATC-bHwDg) References J. Section 14.aap.1740-9713.org/10.1016/j. ^ The Times.020). (http://www.timesonline.jstor.1111/j. ISBN 978-0-471-41137-6.doi. The Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland 15: 246–263.1740-9713.nlm. Modern Mathematical Statistics. "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature". 16 December 2005 Speed camera benefits overrated (http://www.x). ^ Everitt. Mountain.nih. Edward J.04.nlm.1111%2Fj. (2006) Oxford Dictionary of Statistics.gov/pubmed/8019287). "Safety cameras: Stealth tax or life-savers?".ncbi.2307/2841583 (http://dx.virtual.Wikipedia.00179. Bland and D.. Stephen M (1997).2006.nih.gov/pubmed/9261910). doi:10.2006.doi. 13. Linear models. Dudewicz & Satya N.com/? id=QRwuz6yA97oC&pg=PA272&dq=%22bivariate+normal+distribution%22+%22regression+toward+th e+mean%22&q=%22bivariate%20normal%20distribution%22%20%22regression%20toward%20the%20 mean%22).doi.1191%2F096228097676361431). "Regression toward the mean. historically considered" (http://smm.sagepub.org/essays/18801889/galton-1886-jaigi-regression-stature. The Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland (The Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland.1191/096228097676361431 (http://dx. 433–435.org/stable/2841583).. ^ Chernick & Friis (2003) (http://books. 4th edition.bmjjournals.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean .php?articleid=1897)Baseball Prospectus.x (http://dx. McGraw–Hill.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2540330). ^ a b c Galton.org/10. doi:10.

com) and its continuation (http://groups.2307/2841583 (http://dx.com/stat_sim/reg_to_mean/index.) Massachusetts standardized test scores. Regression Toward the Mean and the Study of Change (http://isites.2307%2F2684474).pdf).jstor. Statistics on the Table.jstor. Schmittlein (1989) Surprising Inferences from unsurprising Observations: Do Conditional Expectations really regress to the Mean? (http://www.org/stable/2841583). doi:10. Stigler (1999). McGraw-Hill.topic469678.jstor. No 3 (August 1989).files/regress_to_mean1. Stephen M.doi. Chapter 3: Samples from the Multivariate Normal Population. http://en.google.com/hyperstat/B153351.org/stable/2684474). Vol 43.2307/2684474 (http://dx. (http://onlinestatbook.google.html) Amanda Wachsmuth. David C. doi:10.pdf) (A modern look at Galton's analysis. additional terms may apply. External links Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it (http://ije. ISBN 978-0-534-38778-5. (http://davidmlane.edu (http://groups. 45. Myra L. Leland Wilkinson.org/w/index.wikipedia.org/pss/2684164). Vol.stat.deja. Harvard University Press. Morrison (1967).com/groups? q=g:thl3845480903d&dq=&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF8&safe=off&selm=93ikdr%24i20%241%40nnrp1. See Chapter 9. Samuels (November 1991).com/group/sci. JSTOR 2684474 (//www.jstor.edu/tree/browse_frm/thread/c1086922ef405246/60bb528144835a 38?rnum=21&hl=en&_done=%2Fgroup%2Fsci.stat.html) A simulation of regression toward the mean. the free encyclopedia 246–263. Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. "Statistical Reversion Toward the Mean: More Universal than Regression Toward the Mean".org/cgi/reprint/34/1/215). pp 181–183. International Journal of Epidemiology.doi. The American Statistician (The American Statistician. Donald F. Vol 44. Galton's Bend: An Undiscovered Nonlinearity in Galton's Family Stature Regression Data and a Likely Explanation Based on Pearson and Lee's Stature Data (http://www. Retrieved from "http://en. The American Statistician.oxfordjournals.php?title=Regression_toward_the_mean&oldid=592975680" Categories: Statistical terminology Regression analysis Statistical laws This page was last modified on 29 January 2014 at 16:07.harvard. Psychological Bulletin A non-mathematical explanation of regression toward the mean. Multivariate Statistical Methods.org/10.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean .spss. No 2 (May 1990). pp 176–183.org/10. interpreted by a statistician as an example of regression: see discussion in sci.sta).org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 10/11 .edu/fs/docs/icb.. 4) 45 (4): pp 344–346.2307%2F2841583). JSTOR 2841583 (//www. Dallal. Stephen Senn (1990) Regression: A New Mode for an Old Meaning (http://www.Wikipedia.com/research/wilkinson/Publications/galton. Gerard E. No.org/pss/2685070) The American Statistician.wikipedia.

a non-profit organization. Inc.3/15/2014 Regression toward the mean . Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation. http://en.Wikipedia.. you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean 11/11 .wikipedia. the free encyclopedia By using this site.