Technical Research

21 March 2014

Daily FX Technical Strategy
Markets are stabilising, as today’s Japanese holiday saw trading volumes tail off in Asia. Thursday’s rally in US equities was a small positive for risk and AUDUSD posted a bullish daily candle that negated the prior bearish close. This suggests scope for room back towards the recent range highs. AUD also continued to outperform against crosses such as the EUR and NZD. AUDNZD is forming a potential base pattern and a move above recent highs near 1.0625 would confirm further profit taking. Elsewhere the USD has managed to retain bid, particularly against major currencies such as EURUSD and GBPUSD and in the absence of basing signs we expect the recent downtrends to continue.

Chart of the day: AUD outperforms

Tactical opportunities
• AUDUSD has turned higher. We would buy against
the 0.8990 are for a test of the 0.9140 range highs.

• USDCAD profit taking provides better levels to buy
against the 1.1155 area. Our targets are near 1.1350/60.

• EURAUD is extending lower. Below 1.5150 would
signal a move towards the 1.4985 year-to-date lows. FIGURE 1 Daily Sentiment Index


6585 142.Barclays | Daily FX Technical Strategy FX CHART FOCUS AND LEVELS FIGURE 2 Profit taking in USDCAD signals room for a move back towards 1.8990 AUDUSD 0.2120 0.20 1. a technical strategy cross-asset tool on Barclays Live.8500 NZDUSD 0. Click here to access additional systematic readings on TRENDS.8570 1.15 102.3970 1. Support 1.6670 1. Overall we are bullish towards 1.8440 1. Overnight changes signals are underlined.2160 EURCHF 1.1190 1.2205 0.9140 0.8800 USDCHF 0.1280 Bearish Bearish Bullish Overbought Bearish Bullish Bullish Bearish Momentum GBPUSD Bearish USDCAD Bullish Note: Momentum readings above are systematic and may differ from our view.3750 EURUSD 1.8900 0.8425 0.1350 1.1155.95 USDJPY 101.70 1. 21 March 2014 2 .1155 Resistance 1.8725 101.6375 140.45 EURJPY 139.8645 0.8925 0.3850 0.6425 1.3705 0.8405 1.00 0.1350/60.25 142.2220 1.9210 0.8285 1.8870 103.70 0.8325 EURGBP 0.

Barclays | Daily FX Technical Strategy FX VOLUME FOCUS FIGURE 3 Increased activity with the move lower in GBPUSD signals investor commitment to sell. Barclays FX trading platforms such as BARX®. VolT data includes Voice flows. including FXAll and 360T. and third-party trading platforms. FIGURE 4 Daily Volume rankings and highlights Source: All observations are based on VolT and not volumes in the entire FX market. 21 March 2014 3 .

USDJPY  GBPUSD  USDCHF  EURJPY  EURGBP  EURCHF  AUDUSD  NZDUSD  USDCAD  Note: Colour legend for short-term trend bias/arrows: Bullish. Below there would signal further downside towards the daily cloud base near the 138. the 100-day average. Above the 1.2120 for the next couple of sessions.3975/1.8500 area would provide an opportunity to buy at better levels towards 0.3700 area and then targets in the 1. A move below would signal room for an extension towards the final Fibo level near 1. Medium-term targets on a close above 0. Our initial targets are towards the 1.8845. Overall we are bullish towards targets in the 1. A hammer like candle on the daily plot has encouraged us to re-instate our bullish view as it negates the prior key bearish day. Having rallied to within 10 tics of our 1. We are staying neutral and would prefer to buy any dips within the overall raising trend.45 would encourage our bearish view towards initial targets near 140. we are now looking for further upside towards targets toward 0. A move below 140.40 area is needed to resume the up-move off the 1.8850 area and in an absence of topping signals.3800 confirmed our suspicion of further EURUSD weakness.8420 range (100 and 20 day averages.4325. we are turning neutral as yesterday’s low close warns of near-term buyer fatigue and risk of a range over 1.8315/0.1155 where we would look for signs of a base. Our greater view is bullish towards targets near the 2013 peak at 0.3660 area.00. Risk is for a move back in range towards former range highs near 1.8990 area underpins. Bearish. We have turned neutral as Thursday’s low close points to buyer capitulation and in the least a pause in the recent up-move.80 lows. the March highs.6420 area (100-day average). Resistance is at 142. A move below the 0. A move below support at 101.4220/50 and 1.80% area for US 10s to signal further upside for USDJPY and a test of the 103.75 range highs.9140 highs (near 200 day). We are neutral within range. we are looking for a move higher towards the 0.1350/60 area. Having reached our initial target in the 0. While support in the 0.3475 lows towards 1. A bullish daily candle on Thursday negated Wednesday’s bearish engulfing pattern and keeps us neutral within a 0.6375.40. Neutral. We are looking for a move towards the 1.20 is needed to signal resumption of weakness towards the 200-day average near 100.8680.Barclays | Daily FX Technical Strategy FX AT A GLANCE FIGURE 5 FX Pair and bias View EURUSD  The move below 1.8900. 21 March 2014 4 .2215 bullish target. It would likely take a break above support in the 2.8680 are to 0.00.8430. The succession of lower closes confirms our bearish view for Cable.