Stock Report | January 4, 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE

Vale SA
S&P Recommendation BUY GICS Sector Materials Sub-Industry Steel Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P, Vickers, company reports) 52-Wk Range $20.97– 12.39 Trailing 12-Month EPS $0.87 Trailing 12-Month P/E 16.5 $10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $13,474 Price Performance
30-Week Mov. Avg. 12-Mo. Target Price


Price $14.33 (as of Jan 3, 2014)

12-Mo. Target Price $22.00

Summary This Brazilian company is the world's largest iron ore miner and the world's second largest nickel producer.

S&P Oper. EPS 2013 E S&P Oper. EPS 2014 E P/E on S&P Oper. EPS 2013 E Common Shares Outstg. (M)

2.56 2.60 5.6 5,153.4

Market Capitalization(B) Yield (%) Dividend Rate/Share Institutional Ownership (%)

$45.650 5.01 $0.72 14

Beta S&P 3-Yr. Proj. EPS CAGR(%)

1.37 18

Qualitative Risk Assessment
10-Week Mov. Avg. Relative Strength GAAP Earnings vs. Previous Year Up Down No Change Volume Above Avg. Below Avg. STARS




25 20 15

Our risk assessment reflects Vale's exposure to the global steel industry, especially in China, which accounts for about 50% of global steel production, and volatile iron ore prices. Quantitative Evaluations S&P Quality Ranking

Vol. Mil. 120 80 40 0 5 1 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 4




Relative Strength Rank

Revenue/Earnings Data
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Options: ASE, CBOE, P, Ph

Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst Johnson Imode on Nov 15, 2013, when the stock traded at $15.73. Highlights

Investment Rationale/Risk

We look for a 6% sales rise in 2013, followed by a 2% advance in 2014. We expect a 6% increase in the 2013 average iron ore price ($135/tonne) but a 19% fall in the 2014 average iron ore price ($110/tonne). However, we anticipate a combination of rising iron ore shipments in 2014 (+6%) and higher Base Metals volumes (especially copper) to mitigate iron ore price pressure. We see lower iron ore prices in 2014 due to rising global supply, at more than 10% relative to an estimated 3% rise in Chinese steel demand (according to the World Steel Association). We look for a significant rebound in 2013 earnings before interest and taxes, thanks to higher iron ore prices and cost savings. After interest expense and taxes, we estimate earnings per ADS of $2.56 for 2013, rising 2% in 2014 to $2.60. Longer term, we see earnings benefiting from China's ongoing development, which should increase demand for Vale's more consumer-oriented commodities, especially nickel.

We view the ADSs as attractively valued, recently trading at about 6X our 2013 earnings per ADS estimate. After a projected strong rise in 2013 earnings per ADS, we expect rising volumes and cost savings to help offset our expectation of weaker iron ore prices in 2014. Furthermore, the group's strategic review of its base metals activities should also support earnings and valuation, in our view. Longer term, we have a positive outlook for nickel as Chinese growth turns to being consumption rather than investment driven. Risks to our recommendation and target price include a sharper decline in the price of iron ore in 2014 than we project. Additional risk comes from a US$15 billion tax claim in Brazil that Vale is contesting and has not made provisions for. Applying a multiple of 8.6X to our 2013 earnings per ADS estimate, which is at the low end of the historical range of the past 10 years to reflect the risk to earnings from rising iron ore supply and potentially higher taxes in Brazil, we derive our 12-month target price of $22.

Revenue (Million $) 1Q 2Q 2013 10,918 11,032 2012 11,054 11,960 2011 13,784 15,715 2010 6,980 10,303 2009 5,578 5,147 2008 7,832 10,600 Earnings Per ADS ($) 2013 0.60 0.09 2012 0.74 0.53 2011 1.28 1.22 2010 0.32 0.70 2009 0.26 0.15 2008 0.41 1.01

3Q 12,327 10,727 17,162 14,676 7,073 11,739

4Q -16,083 16,241 15,608 6,712 7,515

Year -47,694 61,759 47,281 24,395 37,426

0.68 0.32 0.92 1.13 0.31 0.94

E0.58 -0.33 0.96 1.11 0.29 0.26

E2.56 0.99 4.31 3.24 0.99 2.58

Fiscal year ended Dec. 31. Next earnings report expected: Early February. EPS Estimates based on S&P Operating Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported.

® ®

Dividend Data (Dates: mm/dd Payment Date: mm/dd/yy)
Amount ($) Date Decl. Ex-Div. Date Stk. of Record Payment Date

0.286 0.077 0.355


04/17 04/17 10/18

04/19 04/19 10/22

05/07/13 05/07/13 11/07/13



Dividends have been paid since 2002. Source: Company reports.

Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.

1 billion of EBITDA) include copper. Nickel refined production and consumption were almost matched in 2012 at 1. mostly reflecting higher net income.45 a year ago. 5. North America. depletion and amortization. Torres Board Members M. Pires Corporate Information Investor Contact F.1 million metric tons in 2012.1% of sales and had a $ Website http://www. CFO L. its main focus is to grow organically through the development of a wide range of projects founded on its world-class asset base. Mining for base metals is a highly capital-intensive business requiring large sums of money to explore for deposits and construct mines once deposits have been discovered. Cavaglieri M. From 2003 to 2012. Manganese mining and ferroalloys are also included in the segment. Ferrous products (69. and rest of world 1. before acquisitions.3 million metric tons in 2011. da Cunha J. These three companies account for some 75% of the seaborne trade in iron ore. Vale SA (formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce) is the world's largest producer of iron ore fines and pellets for use in steelmaking. Norilsk Nickel of Russia. 2013. supported by low Chinese inventories and robust demand.9 million metric tons in 2011.Stock Report | January 4. Vale reported third-quarter underlying EPS of $0. Vale is the largest provider of transportation and logistics in Officers Chrmn D. versus 257. we expect free cash flow to rebound in 2013. the base metals mining industry has become more concentrated as a result of Conrado L. capital spending averaged 369. From 2003 through 2012. $19. Da Silveira Teixeira. Downtown. Vale competes with BHP Billiton.5%. and the world's second largest producer of manganese and ferroalloys. Asia excluding China 19%.1%.vale. Fax 55 21 3814 8820. largely as a result of rising steel production in China. gold. and platinum group metals. B. versus 1. increasing geographic and product diversification and expanding logistics capabilities. Barros D. Although the company may continue to make strategic acquisitions. and mining costs have risen substantially. MARKET PROFILE. 26. Following a large decline in 2012. The company's main goal is to strengthen its position as one of the world's leading diversified metals and mining companies by building on its strengths in iron ore and nickel. CORPORATE STRATEGY. The company's main competitors in iron ore are BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.V. Over the same period.72 on an 11% sales rise.1 billion metric tons in 2012. Coal accounted for 2. Vale is also the second biggest nickel producer and also produces copper. De Oliveira Barbosa Office Graca Aranha Avenue.7 million metric tons. J. For the same period. Other accounted for 1. On average. 2. VALE stated that it expected iron ore prices to sustain current levels (about $130/tonne) for the remainder of 2013. Kawashima R.8 million and 1. ERAMET.305 Stockholders NA . The largest shareholder in Valepar is Litel Participacoes SA (49%).2%. Severini Secy C. Rio de Janeiro. Vale's iron ore shipments were 258. free cash flow. revenues increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.3 billion of EBITDA) comprise iron ore mining and pellet production. silver nickel. which in turn is owned by an entity that is controlled by state majority-owned Banco do Brasil.A. Rocha J. de Camargo Filho Domicile Brazil Founded 1942 Employees 85. Gross revenues by region in 2012 were: Brazil 19. Vale operates in the steel and energy areas. Base metals (15. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA Business Summary November 15. cobalt. as well as the Northern and Southern transportation systems. De Oliveira Ferreira Chief Acctg Officer M. Conrado CEO & Pres M. ports and terminals.7%.1 million metric tons in 2012. Fertilizer nutrients (8. Group results mainly reflected higher iron ore prices (+12%) and volumes (+7%). Since the beginning of the 21st century.A. fertilizers.5%.5% of revenues in 2012. held 52. A. which includes the operation of rails. Middle East. including railroads. Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals and GlencoreXstrata in the nickel market.2%.7% of Vale's common stock and 33.8 billion loss. Europe 17. $741 million of EBITDA) include production of potash. Each ADS represents one ordinary share. Global iron ore shipments reached 1. while earnings per ADS rose at a CAGR of 13. China 34%. In addition. Telephone 55 21 3814 8888.4% of sales and had a $274 million loss. South American excluding Brazil 1. Brazil 20030-900.4%.S.6%. FINANCIAL TRENDS. 2012.4%. Cost of sales also fell by 3%. increased at a CAGR of 13%. dividends and asset sales. $1. phosphates and nitrogen.5% of sales and had EBITDA of $53 million.1%. M. Global mine production of nickel totaled 2. respectively. Valepar S. A. cobalt and platinum group metals. F. dividends rose at a CAGR of 26. Galvao Coutinho R.7% of Vale's total capital (including preferred shares). Logistics services. shipping and ports.6% of depreciation. accounted for 3. Through its ownership and operation of railroads and ports. as they pertain to mining operations. Demand for iron ore increased dramatically in the first decade of the 21st century. 2013 CORPORATE OVERVIEW. da Cruz Gomes O. As of December 31. Email rio@cvrd. Incorporated in 1942 and privatized by the Brazilian government in 1997. versus EPS of $0. coal.1%. Jr. stainless steel production accounts for two-thirds of nickel demand. On November 6.

02 5.9 16.7 28.181 26.634 997 1.64 27.34 0.338 8.15 8.105.116 61.2 1.6 1. 31 Per ADS Data ($) Tangible Book Value Cash Flow Earnings Dividends Payout Ratio Prices:High Prices:Low P/E Ratio:High P/E Ratio:Low Income Statement Analysis (Million $) Revenue Operating Income Depreciation Interest Expense Pretax Income Effective Tax Rate Net Income 2012 12.956 14.808 19.882 238 351 1.715 9.15 26% 7.71 1.32 13.7% 17.0 9.912 1.) Net Margin (%) % LT Debt to Capitalization Return on Equity (%) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 9 Years VALE scored lower than 83% of all companies for which an S&P Report is available.6 4.498 100.777 Cash Flow 9.775 22.448 12.59 2.56 1.2% 1.46 9 5 2010 10.841 8.215 11.156 37.545 21.380 76.2 25. for stk.3 21.651 8.2% 11.25 20.2% 4.04 2.2 54. -22.238 79.978 9.32 13% 38.89 3.235 NA 24.16 2.499 Capital Expenditures 15.49 6.65 1.12 35% 4.717 10.133 4.164 6.543 1.26 11 6 2004 1.0 4.022 2.046 11.83 3.23 17% 15.44 45% 29.426 18. NA-Not Available.825 19.644 3.58 11 7 2005 6.14 25.383 47.8 15.740 NA 25.474 11.99 0.00 23.395 9.051 619 560 6.58 11 7 2009 9. divs.5% 22.323 59.041 4.8 Data as orig reptd. NR-Not Ranked.666 32.5 7.3 % Net Income of Revenue 10.00 4.066 3.76 2.232 6.505 2.3 31.58 10.525 1.20 24.2 15.262 NA 21.80 17 3 2007 8.41 22.42 21.350 1.77 27 16 2011 13.92 5.29 20.3 31.528 12.186 1. stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most undervalued (5).77 -77.2 16.380 2.99 2.23 9. items.56 0.7 2011 1.242 15.462 339 671 3.94 8.88 6.740 NA 7.954 7.548 Balance Sheet & Other Financial Data (Million $) Cash 6.8% 6..971 48.59 37% 37.6 52.746 4.8 2010 3.87 15.715 2.765 12.325 3.828 20.26 30.0 51.53 16 6 2006 5.03 5.50 0.1 36.31 3.807 1.977 5.87 28.122 14.149 NA 27.13 15 6 47.25 24% 11.31 12.083 17.05 0.4 1.77 37.972 16.93 11. Per share data adj.671 1.4 22.46 27.288 NA 3.253 2.910 3.764 NA 20.42 0.406 18.573 5.58 0.44 13 6 2003 0.5 2009 NA NA NA NA NA 17 LOWEST = 1 HIGHEST = 100 Key Growth Rates and Averages Past Growth Rate (%) Sales Net Income Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.201 15.580 NA 100.28 7.93 24.79 NA UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL FAVORABLE Company Financials Fiscal Year Ended Dec.771 3.639 23.895 2.922 NM 5.82 3.025 3.24 0.07 27.651 14.180 14. UR-Under Review.307 Common Equity 51.0 37.246.267 2.47 18% 44.99 0.73 26. Diluted Shares Outstg (M) Figures based on calendar year-end price 2012 2.73 0.011 1.6 28.311.2 60.7 10.95 27.8 36.664 Total Capital 111.829 7.. bef.0 49.96 0.9 23.176 20.7 % Return on Assets 3.8 % Long Term Debt of Capitalization 26.22 25.24 6.31 1.620 Current Liabilities NA Long Term Debt 29.025 76.3 31.97% 11.42 1.950 15.31 3.759 34.78 2.404 Current Ratio 1.786 1.09 LOW NA AVERAGE HIGH 10.1 5.539 16.24 4.7 23.792 6.1 34.304 41.460 1.636 4.1 29.55 5.35 0.411 2.714 54.7 10. EPS diluted.281 26.893 81.8 43.8 25.1% 2.455 3. NM-Not Meaningful.531 1.277 66.7 17.431 7. results of disc opers/spec.8 36.39 0.99 0.2 585 2. E-Estimated.06 4.9 % Return on Equity 8.370 2.51 0.9 43.920 NA 129.2 17.475 3.890 15.236 7.078 Current Assets NA Total Assets 130.50 -2.587 8.249 3.9 33. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA Quantitative Evaluations S&P Fair Value Rank NR 1 LOWEST Expanded Ratio Analysis 2 3 4 5 HIGHEST Based on S&P's proprietary quantitative model.1 28.99 100% 26. .827 16.Stock Report | January 4.237 18.409 24.312 21.2 26.45 14% 35.033 67.694 17.05 5.984 1.1% 5.989 108.718 32.50 30 12 2008 7.651 7.940 60.608 28.434 2.499 NA 129. Fair Value Calculation Investability Quotient Percentile Volatility Technical Evaluation Insider Activity NA Price/Sales Price/EBITDA Price/Pretax Income P/E Ratio Avg.592 15.9 19.

64/18.34 1.61 9.76 NA 1.3 NA 21. However. we see a 3% increase in steel consumption and for 2014 we see a 4% increase. 12.7 NM 2.95 2.0 0.2 0.7% gain for the 1500 and a 14% increase in the Materials Index.36 7. However.012 110 2.2% increase in the S&P Materials Index. following estimated GDP growth of 2.1 3. As a result.25 23. along with a rise in imports.8 2.4 million in 2012.0 NA 71. will likely result in a small decline in earnings for our proxy group in 2013.89 52 Week High/Low($) 20. S&P Economics also forecasts moderate growth in nonresidential construction of 1.5 27.83 780.568 844 74 606 Recent Stock Price($) 14.0 NA 28.40 NA NA 60.85 1. Cap.00/665.8 3.0 NA 8.33 1. compared to a 25.32 2. Due to production cutbacks and an easing of imports.6 Nil Nil Nil Nil 6.25 2. Stable pricing and increased demand will likely result in an increase in earnings in 2014.38 26. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA Sub-Industry Outlook We have a neutral fundamental outlook for the steel industry for the next 12 months. Second.($) NA NA NA NA 9.61 11.9 55.13 1.Stock Report | January 4.9% in 2014.9 8. steel shipment volume rose 4. ADR Stock Symbol VALE AXX CSTW CHOP GGB SIM HNH HAYN MTL NML.7 2. For 2013.20/18. as of early November. Standard & Poor's Economics anticipates an increase in auto sales in 2013 to 15. In 2012.63/0. Our forecast rests on several assumptions.0%. the S&P Steel Index rose 13. That.77 2.4 9.9 Nil Nil 1. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks.A. the S&P Steel Index fell 7%.00 2. pricing had increased from first half levels due primarily to a tightening in supply availability caused by steel mills being temporarily offline in the U.51/43.7% in 2013 and 2. and inventory accumulation by distributors will lead to an increase in the volume of steel shipped in 2013 and in 2014. we anticipate that greater demand due to a combination of rising GDP. ADR Grupo Simec SAB ADS Handy & Harman Haynes Intl Mechel OAO ADR New Millennium Iron Sims Metal Management ADR SunCoke Energy SunCoke Energy Prtnrs LP Sutor Tech Grp Ternium S. we believe durable goods demand will increase.2% in 2012. from 14.5 13.60/7. we think average price per ton in 2013 and 2014 will be modestly lower than 2012's levels.83 30.0% gain for the S&P 1500 Composite Index and a 17. along with high levels of imports and modest nonresidential construction. Year to date to December 13.26/0.4%.37 NA 0. Source: S&P.0 million.53/0.13 0.5 million units and a further increase in 2014 to 16.S. and elsewhere. However. versus a 13. Prices weakened again through much of the first half of 2013 as domestic steel capacity utilization weakened from 2012 levels.7% in 2013 and 2. selection of issues is based on market capitalization.42/13.2 7.C SMSMY SXC SXCP SUTR TX Stk.A.04/1.31 7.43 0.95 31.39 2.97/12.17 1.00 3. Following a decline in aggregate profits in 2012 for the four companies that comprise our industry index. another increase in auto sales.27 15.944 655 312 663 1.37/10. In 2012.68/5. while consumption was up 8%. steel prices declined through early July 2012 after rising steadily from about mid-October 2011 through February 2012.47/1.0 NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated.82 1.57 11.6% in 2014.86 Beta 1.68 53. First.7% growth in 2012. due to new production entering the market.88 NA 2.15 25.5 NA NM NA 5.55 740. --Philip Kaukonen Stock Performance GICS Sector: Materials Sub-Industry: Steel Based on S&P 1500 Indexes Month-end Price Performance as of 12/31/13 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 Sub-Industry 2010 2011 2012 S&P 1500 2013 2014 Sector NOTE: All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) Sub-Industry : Steel Peer Group*: Based on market capitalizations within GICS Sub-Industry Peer Group Vale SA ADS Alderon Iron Ore Central Steel & Wire China Gerui Adv Materials Gp Gerdau S.Mkt.1 P/E Ratio 16 NM 11 NM 21 23 9 31 NM NM NM 38 15 4 53 Fair Value Calc.650 202 196 78 12. prices stabilized and headed higher in the fourth quarter of 2012. according to statistics compiled by the American Iron and Steel Institute. as a result of lingering excess steel capacity.24/13. .98 1.0 Nil 0. real GDP of 1.3 Nil 0.2 LTD to Cap (%) 26. (Mil.19 Yield (%) 5.S.83 22.008 1.7 4.2 67. $) 45.58 28. vs.71 56.12 9.92 23.4 Nil 2.90 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA S&P Return on Quality IQ Revenue Ranking %ile (%) NR NR B NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR 17 52 84 1 56 45 15 75 2 NA 38 22 75 3 40 10.65 1. following an 8% rise in 2012. Standard & Poor's Economics projects increases in U.

39. vs. The company tells analysts that '12 is likely a peak year for capital spending and that it plans to sell low-return assets. S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON ADSS OF VALE (VALE 18. Larkin October 11. November 27. Larkin January 17. Larkin .56 estimate and the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $0.57 as Vale's Q2 adjusted EPS of $0. September 28. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA S&P Analyst Research Notes and other Company News November 8. 2013 11:02 am ET . 2012 04:55 pm ET . We see long-term earnings rising on a secular increase in iron ore resulting from increased durable goods demand in Asia.A.57. Ricardo Flores announced his resignation.8B was up 48% y-y driven by iron ore volumes (+7%) and prices (+12%). 2012 Rio de Janeiro announced his new duties as CEO of Brasilprev Seguros e Previd ncia S. 2012. while we expect lower average iron ore prices in '14 (-19%) due to rising global supply.A.. approved the nomination of Mr.57 from $2. Q4 operating EPS were $0.96****): We maintain our target price of $22 despite raising our '13 EPS est. We also see support from ongoing initiatives to rationalize its portfolio.05****): We lower our 12-month target price by $3.38. we believe the ADSs will carry a low P/E. Nelson Henrique Barbosa Filho. In our view.A.. has resigned as of August 1. /L. EPS of $0.165****): We maintain our target price of $22 having made minor cuts to our 13 EPS ($2. /L. who had served as Chairman of its Board of Directors since November 2010. /L. including Vice President of Retail.. Based on a more conservative assumption for iron ore volume. 2013 12:16 pm ET . Fuminobu Kawashima at the Vale Board of Directors. We think the ADSs will carry a low valuation on '13's estimate given the risk to earnings from a sluggish steel market. Cost of sales fell 3%. Director of Sao Paulo Distribution and Director of Marketing and Communications. To reflect a more conservative assumption for iron ore prices. while cost savings should help. we keep '13's at $3. Distribution and Operations. Mr. His appointed replacement will be submitted to Board approval at its October 2012 meeting and subsequently announced to the market.91.60. Chairman of its Board of Directors. VALE posted Q2 operating earnings per ADS of $0.. He holds a law degree and previously held various positions within Banco do Brasil. 2012 Vale S.57 to $2. on 34% lower sales.42. Ricardo Flores.08 was impacted by derivative/currency losses due to the weaker Real and drives a $0. Dan Conrado is currently president of Previ.. Chairman of Board of Directors. 2012 Source: S&P. Dan Conrado's appointment will be submitted to Board approval at its October 2012 meeting.88. HIDEHIRO TAKAHASHI as alternate of Mr. Given concerns over global economic growth in general and steel production growth in particular.95. August 1.88 from $3.56) post Q1 results. 2013 05:15 pm ET . the large pension fund in Latin America.A. and topping the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $0. 2013 02:19 pm ET . Looking ahead. but cost savings of $700M helped mitigate this. below our $0. has announced he will pass on the chairmanship to Dan Conrado. in replacement of Hajime Tonoki. made important contributions to Vale. Underlying EBIT of $3. Dan Conrado's appointment will be submitted to Board approval at its October 2012 meeting. But assuming a rebound in iron ore and nickel prices.51. /L. below our $0. 2013. S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON THE ADSS OF VALE (VALE 17.A. S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON ADSS OF VALE (VALE 14. we cut our '13 EPS estimate to $2.71 estimate and the Capital IQ consensus forecast of $0. We think Vale is attractive at current levels.2201****): We maintain our target price of $22 after minor changes to our adjusted 13 EPS forecast of $2. Larkin October 26. Importantly. 2013 The Board of Directors of Vale S. On our target price and '13 estimate. We see a stronger H2 with iron ore prices $15/tonne higher than a year ago due to low inventories and robust demand..22. based on a reduction to our 2013 EPS estimate.99. S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON THE ADSS OF VALE (VALE 18. who had served as Chairman of Board of Directors since November 2010.A.56 cut to our reported 13 EPS forecast of $1.. April 25. Vale is changing its iron ore contract structures from a lag to closer to spot to realize price changes more quickly. /Johnson Imode August 8. Adjusted EBIT of $4.64 was in line.Stock Report | January 4.64 from $3. working in harmony with all the shareholders and senior management and reinforcing the culture of meritocracy in the company.66****): We lower our 12-month target price to $23 from $24 on a reduction to '13's EPS estimate. Ricardo Flores. to reflect a reduction to our 2013 earnings per ADS estimate. has announced he will pass on the chairmanship to Dan Conrado. gaining from Vale's cost saving drive which lowered costs by $880M from a year ago. vs. the projected P/E is at the low end of the historical range of the last 10 years. during the Board meeting held on September 27.. May 28.28****): We cut our '12 EPS estimate to $2.72. Ricardo Flores. 04:25 pm ET . by $0. and our expectation for a 6% rise in 2013 average iron ore prices.39 from $3. 2013 Vale S. Vale's Q3 adjusted EPS ($0. /Johnson Imode/ August 5.65 on lower than expected Q3 results. S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON THE ADSS OF VALE (VALE 17. and reduce '13's to $3. $1. /Johnson Imode February 28. other Board members and Executive Officers. Based on a less optimistic outlook for iron ore prices stemming from sluggish Chinese steel industry conditions.81 estimate. announced that one of its Board Members. 2012 05:32 am ET . S&P CAPITAL IQ MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON ADSS OF VALE (VALE 15.72) was 9% and 31% ahead of our and consensus ests. Reported EPS of $0. the projected P/E would be just above the low end of the 10-year range.. below our $0. we cut '13's EPS estimate to $2.43. October 4.6B was down 17% from a year ago due to lower commodity prices. Today's results of $0. Ricardo Flores announced his resignation. this bodes well for free cash flow.. we cut our '12 estimate to $2. Dan Conrado is currently president of Previ. to $24.62 EPS beat Capital IQ's consensus by 17%. to $22.39 and retain our 12-month target price of $24.56 to exclude one-off items. announced that Ricardo Flores.26 from $2. On our revised estimate and target price. we expect this positive to be added to by higher iron ore production (post the normal Q1 weather impact).'s global steel director Aristides Corbellini has resigned from his duties as part of a downsizing process in the miner's steel production division.99****): We lower our target price by $1. the projected P/E would be at the low end of the 10-year range. on a 19% sales drop. At the Board meeting. 2013 Vale S. on a 21% sales decline. expressing gratitude for the unconditional support he received from Vale's shareholders. Looking ahead. reported that Mr... Q3 operating earnings per ADS were $0. S&P MAINTAINS BUY RECOMMENDATION ON ADSS OF VALE (VALE 18.34. On our new target price and '13's revised estimate. $0. Ricardo Jose Sasseron announced his resignation as Director of Board of Directors. we believe Vale can mitigate this through higher volumes (+6%) and savings.. vs. 2012 Vale S..

representing 30% of the total annual estimate.3 11% 26.7 15% A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision.60 2.04 2.69 -3% 0. 20 analysts currently publish recommendations. Inc.75 2012 2013 2014 2012 Actual $1.27 -10% 0. 19 19 0% 4 12 -67% Est. RBC Capital Markets Raymond James & Associates Renaissance Capital S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Wall Street Consensus vs.45 0. Prior 3 Mos.98 For fiscal year 2013.04.1 22. analysts estimate that VALE's earnings per share will decline by 10% to $2.0 6. This graph shows the trend in analyst estimates over the past 15 months.68. S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J 2012 2013 Fiscal Years 2014 2013 2014 vs. Nomura Securities Co.Stock Report | January 4. 2. . No. 2.72 -12% Low Est. LLC Credit Suisse Daiwa Securities Co.27.300 Wall Street analysts. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA Analysts' Recommendations Monthly Average Trend Buy B Wall Steet Consensus Opinion Buy/Hold BH Hold H Weak Hold WH Sell S No Opinion VALE Trend BUY/HOLD Companies Offering Coverage Over 30 firms follow this stock. Research Division Cowen and Company.55 -18% # of Est.55 0. Corretora de Titulos e Valores Mobiliarios CLSA Canaccord Genuity Citigroup Inc Cowen Securities LLC.A. not all firms are displayed. of Ratings 11 0 7 1 1 0 20 % of Total 55 0 35 5 5 0 100 1 Mo. Source: S&P.30 1. VALE announced earnings per share of $0. For the 3rd quarter of fiscal year 2013. Performance Wall Street Average B BH H WH S Number of Analysts Following Stock 30 20 10 Stock Price ($) 40 30 20 10 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J 2012 2013 Of the total 34 companies following VALE. Capital IQ Estimates. Ltd. and provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years.25 2 1. 2013 Q4'14 Q4'13 Q4'14 vs. For fiscal year 2014.63 -20% 0. BB&T Capital Markets BMO Capital Markets. 1. Canadian Equity Research BTG Pactual Barclays BofA Merrill Lynch Bradesco S. Ltd. Standard & Poor's organizes the earnings estimates of over 2. Deutsche Bank Espirito Santo Investment Bank Espirito Santo Research Exane BNP Paribas Goldman Sachs HSBC Hamburger Sparkasse AG Itau BBA JP Morgan Macquarie Research Morgan Stanley Morningstar Inc. analysts estimate that VALE will earn $2. P/E 7.63 0. Q4'13 Avg Est.5 2.63 -13% High Est. Prior 11 10 0 0 7 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 20 12 Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell No Opinion Total Wall Street Consensus Estimates Estimates 2.

a regional index (S&P Asia 50 Index. The measure takes into account variables such as technical indicators. Using S&P Capital IQ's exclusive proprietary quantitative model. S&P Quality Ranking (also known as S&P Earnings & Dividend Rankings) Growth and stability of earnings and dividends are deemed key elements in establishing S&P Capital IQ’s Earnings and Dividend Rankings for common stocks. dividend yield and sale-to-price). Group 5 stocks are expected to generally outperform all others. Investability Quotient (IQ) The IQ is a measure of investment desirability. the S&P Fair Value model places a value on a security based on placing a formula-derived price-to-book multiple on a company's consensus earnings per share estimate. S&P Capital IQ EPS estimates reflect either forecasts of S&P Capital IQ equity analysts. are buying or selling the company's stock during the most recent six months. A stock with a (+) added to the Fair Value Rank simply means that this stock has a somewhat better chance to outperform other stocks with the same Fair Value Rank. that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. For instance. earnings estimates. and depend on such factors as industry practice. S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® Index)). litigation risk. STARS was designed to meet the needs of investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. and earnings related to operations that have been classified by the company as discontinued. pension costs. Insider Activity Gives an insight as to insider sentiment by showing whether directors. Copyright © 2014 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. The Fair Value rankings imply the following: 5-Stock is significantly undervalued. STANDARD & POOR'S. STARS universe. S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has used STARS® methodology to rank Asian and European equities since June 30. Under proprietary STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System). M&A related expenses and unrealized gains/losses from hedging activities. which are assigned by S&P Capital IQ analysts. Volatility Rates the volatility of the stock's price over the past year. in process research and development expenses. which are independently compiled by Capital IQ.g. gains or losses from asset sales. and generally exclude various items that are viewed as special. 1987. These computer-driven evaluations may at times contradict an analyst's qualitative assessment of a stock. the quantitative evaluations described below are derived from proprietary arithmetic models.S. listing the most undervalued stocks. purchased research and development. financial ratios and selected S&P Capital IQ proprietary measures. which are designed to capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. Similarly. The Qualitative Risk Assessment is a relative ranking to the S&P Capital IQ U. write-downs of depreciable or amortizable operating assets. Technical Evaluation In researching the past market history of prices and trading volume for each company. . Quantitative Evaluations In contrast to our qualitative STARS recommendations. to Group 1. Investment Style Classification Characterizes the stock as Growth or Value. Also. plus real estate depreciation. patent expiration. S&P equity analysts rank equities according to their individual forecast of an equity's future total return potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e. Data used to assist in determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst's own models as well as internal proprietary models resulting from dynamic data inputs. indicating a mixture of growth and value characteristics and cannot be classified as purely growth or value.S.. or the risk of a firm's ability to continue as an ongoing concern. the cumulative effect of accounting changes. and private market valuation metrics. ranging from Group 5.Above Average D Lowest B+ Average NR In Reorganization B Below Average S&P Fair Value Rank S&P 12 Month Target Price The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will command 12 months hence. The reverse is true for Value stocks. The inclusion of some items. Relying heavily on a company's actual return on equity. Excluded from the definition are pension gains. impairment. Relative Strength Rank Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt. recent competitive shifts. and indicates its capitalization level. etc. S&P Core Earnings S&P Capital IQ Core Earnings is a uniform methodology for adjusting operating earnings by focusing on a company's after-tax earnings generated from its principal businesses. 2002. legal and insurance settlements. while Value is evaluated along four dimensions (book-to-price. S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U. including S&P Fair Value. S&P 500. and ADSs (American Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance. sales and internal growth). Among the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale gains. S&P. cash flow-to-price. Funds From Operations FFO FFO is Funds from Operations and equal to a REIT's net income. the consensus (average) EPS estimate. and should be reflective of risk factors related to a company's operations. impairment of goodwill charges. S&P Fair Value Calculation The price at which a stock should trade at. when designating STARS. Included in the S&P Capital IQ definition are employee stock option grant expenses. S&P's IQ Rationale Vale SA ADS Proprietary S&P Measures Technical Indicators Liquidity/Volatility Measures Quantitative Measures IQ Total Raw Score 17 16 12 5 50 Max Value 115 40 20 75 250 Qualitative Risk Assessment The S&P Capital IQ equity analyst's view of a given company's operational risk. however. or extraordinary. and the extent to which some types of data is disclosed by companies. Growth stocks score higher than the market average on growth dimensions and lower on value dimensions. restructuring or merger-related charges. such as risks and opportunities. 3-Stock is fairly valued.Below Average A High C Lower A. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA Glossary S&P STARS Since January 1. Certain stocks are classified as Blend. a data provider to S&P Capital IQ Equity Research.Stock Report | January 4. S&P CAPITAL IQ. S&P Capital IQ analysts assess many factors that cannot be reflected in a model. Growth is evaluated along three dimensions (earnings. It should be noted. as opposed to risk and volatility measures associated with share prices. 4-Stock is moderately undervalued. S&P EUROPE 350 and STARS are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. analyst judgment. based on a 12-month time horizon. liquidity. S&P Capital IQ's computer models apply special technical methods and formulas to identify and project price trends for the stock. reversal of prior-year charges and provision from litigation or insurance settlements. non-recurring. The final score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. excluding gains or losses from sales of property. officers and key employees who have proprietary information not available to the general public. S&P Capital IQ EPS Estimates S&P Capital IQ earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst projections of future EPS from continuing operations. A stock with a (-) has a somewhat lesser chance to outperform other stocks with the same Fair Value Rank. such as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges. based on a combination of intrinsic. management changes. ADRs (American Depositary Receipts). One primary reason for this is that different measures are used to determine each. or. The range of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder of rankings: A+ Highest B. A positive (+) or negative (-) Timing Index is placed next to the Fair Value ranking to further aid the selection process. the most overvalued issues. relative. It serves as an indicator of potential medium-to-long term return and as a caution against downside risk. restructuring charges from ongoing operations. may vary. common stocks. stocks are ranked in one of five groups. 1-Stock is significantly overvalued. 2-Stock is modestly overvalued. according to S&P Capital IQ's proprietary quantitative model that incorporates both actual and estimated variables (as opposed to only actual variables in the case of S&P Quality Ranking).

The Issuer Credit Rating is not a recommendation to purchase.Dividend Discount Model EBIT .Return on Investment ROIC . as it does not take into account the nature of and provisions of the obligation.Discounted Cash Flow DDM . Taxes.Nasdaq Capital Market. General & Administrative Expenses SOTP .Return on Capital Employed ROE . 68 Industries.Weighted Average Cost of Capital Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin). OTN .Price/Earnings P/NAV . rely on unaudited financial information.Earnings Per Share EV . suspended. it does not take into account the creditworthiness of the guarantors.OTCQX. such information. S&P 500. Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Asia includes McGraw-Hill Financial Singapore Pte. In addition. TXV . Issuer Credit Ratings are based on current information furnished by obligors or obtained by Standard & Poor's from other sources it considers reliable. and Standard & Poor's Information Services (Australia) Pty Ltd. NSC .Capital Expenditures CY .Fiscal Year P/E .Funds From Operations FY .Return on Assets SG&A . STANDARD & POOR'S.Sum-of-The-Parts WACC . or based on other circumstances. NNM . QX .Earnings Before Interest. This opinion focuses on the obligor's capacity and willingness to meet its financial commitments as they come due.Nasdaq Global Market. Issuer Credit Ratings may be changed.P/E-to-Growth Ratio PV . as it does not comment on market price or suitability for a particular investor. Limited's offices in Singapore.Return on Equity ROI . BB . or the legality and enforceability of the obligation.Present Value R&D .New York Stock Exchange. S&P Issuer Credit Rating A Standard & Poor's Issuer Credit Rating is a current opinion of an obligor's overall financial capacity (its creditworthiness) to pay its financial obligations. Depreciation and Amortization EPS . TS . includes Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services LLC.S. Abbreviations Used in S&P Capital IQ Equity Research Reports CAGR . S&P EUROPE 350 and STARS are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. on occasion.Nasdaq Global Select Market. Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services Europe includes McGraw-Hill Financial Research Europe Limited trading as Standard & Poor's. S&P Capital IQ Equity Research S&P Capital IQ Equity Research U. NYS . or withdrawn as a result of changes in. Standard & Poor's does not perform an audit in connection with any Issuer Credit Rating and may.Free Cash Flow FFO . NEX . Standard & Poor's Malaysia Sdn Bhd.Toronto Stock Exchange. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. and 154 Sub-Industries. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation. its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation. 2014 | NYS Symbol: VALE Vale SA Shows. OTC . or other forms of credit enhancement on the obligation. or unavailability of. how the stock has performed versus all other companies in S&P Capital IQ's universe on a rolling 13-week basis.Selling. sell. . Exchange Type ASE . QB .NEX Exchange.Earnings Before Interest and Taxes EBITDA .Bulletin Board.Research & Development ROCE .Over the Counter. on a scale of 1 to 99.OTCQB.Calendar Year DCF .Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPEX .Australia Stock Exchange. developed by S&P Capital IQ in collaboration with Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). S&P.Price to Net Asset Value PEG Ratio . Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) An industry classification standard. Copyright © 2014 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. insurers. 24 Industry Groups. S&P CAPITAL IQ.Stock Report | January 4. AU . GICS is currently comprised of 10 Sectors.American Stock Exchange.Enterprise Value FCF .Return on Invested Capital ROA .TSX Venture Exchange. statutory preferences. Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services (HK) Limited in Hong Kong. NGM . or hold a financial obligation issued by an obligor.Other OTC (Over the Counter).

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ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY. research reports are issued by Standard & Poor's Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("S&PM"). rate.8% 41. with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.2% 9.3% 100% Europe 33. broker-dealers. statistical composites and their returns do not include payment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchase the securities they represent. The Fair Value Ranking methodology is a relative ranking methodology. 2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months.0% 100% Global 46. investment advisers.3% 59. shareholders. and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those organizations. Fair Value relies on history and consensus estimates and does not introduce an element of subjectivity.5% 54.4% 100% Trade Detector Recommendations Distribution as of March 31. as well as their directors. Securities and Exchange Commission. One methodology is based on a target price model. exemplary. 2014 The Trade Detector research report was published after March 31. SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. As a S&P Capital IQ Global Quantitative Model Recommendations Distribution as of September 30.1% 39. in Hong Kong. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results S&P Capital IQ. compensatory. without limitation. in Europe and in Asia.6% 53. or relating to. A reference to a particular investment or security by S&P Capital IQ and/or one of its affiliates is not a recommendation to buy.5% 43.9% 23. sell. . S&P. Copyright © 2014 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. many organizations. Relevant benchmarks: In North America. special or consequential damages. which is also registered in South Korea with the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) as a cross-border investment adviser. quantitative evaluations and Trade Detector methodologies reflect different criteria.7% 25. 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