RI (6) SK – 5 Planning & 1 Monitoring&Controlling

S# Inputs Tools & Techniques Outputs 33 Plan Risk Management: The process of DEFINING HOW to conduct risk management activities for a proj. In Plan Risk Management, the remaining FIVE risk management processes are PLANNED (creating a road map for them) and HOW they will be conducted is documented. Here focus is on "HOW RISKS WILL BE APPROACHED ON THE PROJECT". # Risk Management Plan defines WHAT LEVEL of risk will be considered tolerable for the proj , HOW risk will be managed, WHO will be responsible for risk activities, the AMOUNTS OF TIME & COST that will be allotted to risk activities, and HOW risk findings will be COMMUNICATED. # Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS): It is not breaking down of actual risks, instead, it is breaking down the CATEGORIES of risks that will be evaluated. Risks can be business (risk of gain/loss) or pure/insurable (risk of loss - fire, theft, etc) 1. Risk Management Plan 1. Project Scope Statement 1. Planning Meetings and Analysis 2. Schedule Management Plan (It includes the following: a) Methodology, b) Roles and Responsibilities, c) Budgeting, d) Timing, e) Risk Categories 3. Cost Management Plan (organised into RBS) ( •), f) Definitions of risk probability and 4. Communications Management Plan impact, g) Stakeholders' tolerances, h) Reporting formats, 5. EEF and i) Tracking.) 6. OPA 34 Identify Risks: The process of determining WHICH risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. # TT1: Assumptions analysis is when we look at project assumptions. # TT3: SWOT: It is a tool to measure each RISK's SWOT. Each risk is plotted, and the quadrant where the Weekness (usually Internal) and Threats (usually External) are HIGHEST, and the quadrant where Strenghts (again, usually Internal) and Opportunities (usually External) are HIGHEST will present the HIGHEST RISK on the project. # TT4: Diagramming Techniques: Ishikawa/Cause-and-effect/Fishbone Diagram, Influence Diagram, and System or Process Flow Charts. # TT5: Most common Techniques are 1. Brainstorming, 2. Delphi Technique, 3. Expert Interviews, and 4. Root Cause Identification. # TT6: Documentation reviews is when you look at OPA and any documents to squeeze any possible risk out of them. 1. Assumptions Analysis 1. Risk Management Plan 1. Risk Register (part of Project Documents) 2. Scope Baseline (Proj Scope Stmt, WBS & WBS Dict) 2. Checklist Analysis (uses Risk Breakdown Structure ) (a) List of Identified Risks (b) List of Potential Responses ^^ 3. Schedule Management Plan 3. SWOT Analysis 4. Cost Management Plan (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats) 4. Diagramming Techniques 5. Quality Management Plan 6. Activity Duration Estimates (Fishbone Diagram, Flowchart, Influence Diagram) 7. Activity Cost Estimates 5. Information Gathering Techniques (Interviews, 8. Stakeholder Register Brainstorming, Delphi, Root Cause Analysis) 9. Project Documents 6. Documentation Reviews 10. EEF 7. Expert Judgement 11. OPA 35 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: The process of PRIORITIZING risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurance and impact. It is a SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. # It is usually a RAPID and COST-EFFECTIVE means of establishing priorities for Plan Risk Responses and lays the foundation for Perform QUANTITATIVE Risk Analysis, if required. This process can lead into Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis or directly into Plan Risk Responses. 1. Risk Register 1. Risk Probability and Impact Assessment 1.Risk Register Updates 2. Probability and Impact Matrix 2. Risk Management Plan (1. Relative ranking or priority list of project risks, 2. Risks grouped by categories, (•) 3. Causes of risk or project areas 3. Project Scope Statement 3. Risk Data Quality Assessment requiring particular attention, 4. List of risks requiring 4. Risk Urgency Assessment 4. OPA response in the near-term, 5. List of risks for additional 5. Risk Categorization (•) analysis, 6. Watchlists of low-priority risks, and 7. Trends in 6. Expert Judgment qualitative risk analysis results) 36 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: The process of NUMERICALLY ANALYZING the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. Overall project risk exposure; and initial COST & SCHEDULE reserves are determined. It relies on the prioritized list of risks from the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process. This process is concerned with quantifying the risks & is more OBJECTIVE / NUMERICAL evaluation. Vs - SCOPE generally fits better into the Qualitative Risk Analysis. # TT1: a) Interviewing, b) Probability Distribution (Beta Distribution, Triangular Distribution, Uniform, Normal, log-Normal). Uniform Distribution can be used if there is no obvious value (early concept stage of design). Probability Distributions are very useful for analyzing risks. # TT2: a) Sensitivity Analysis (Tornado Diagram shows HOW SENSITIVE each analyzed area of the project is to risk. It ranks the bars from GREATEST to LEAST on the proj so that the chart takes on a Tornado-like shape). b) Expected Monetary Value Analysis ( EMV = P * I): The EMV of OPPORTUNITIES will generally be expressed as +ve values while those of THREATS will be –ve. EMV requires a Risk-Neutral assumption, neither risk averse nor risk seeking. A common type is " Decision Tree Analysis". c) Modeling & Simulation: Monte Carlo Analysis (Network diagram + 3-point estimates + critical path + path convergence) ==>> computer-based program (evaluates overall risk in proj) ==>> (Probability Distribution & Impacts (Cost & Schedule)) 1. Risk Register 1. Data Gathering & Representation Techniques (2) 1. Risk Register Updates 2. Risk Management Plan 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis & Modeling Tecniqs (3) (1. Prioritized list of quantified risks, 2. Amount of 3. Cost Management Plan contingency Cost & Time reserves needed [, 3. Probability 3. Expert Judgment of achieving cost & time objectives 4. Trends in quantitative 4. Schedule Management Plan risk analysis results, 5. Probabilistic analysis of the proj) 5. OPA 37 Plan Risk Responses: Process of DEVELOPING OPTIONS & ACTIONS to enhance opportunities & to reduce threats to proj objectives. It assigns specific tasks & responsibilites to specific team members. Here, ACTION PLANS for HOW each risk should be handled is determined. Risk Trigger is an indication that risk is about to occur or has occurred. # TT1: Avoid/Eliminate - Undesirable risks. Mitigate - to make it less riskier (reduce Probability or Impact). Transfer/Deflect/Allocate - to another party (Insurance & Contractual Agreements). Accept (Negative/Positive) - sometimes, best strategy may not be to Avoid/Transfer/Mitigate/Share/Enhance. Eg., If the cost/impact of other strategies is too high, the best strategy may be simply to Accept it & continue with the project . # TT2: Exploit - trying to remove any uncertainty. Enhance - first we have to understand the underlying cause(s) of the risk. By influencing the underlying risk triggers, you can increase the likelihood (probability) of risk occurring and/or Impact. Share - improve their chances of the positive risk occurring by working with another party. Accept. # O1: Risk Register Updates: Residual Risks (that remain after planned response) , Secondary Risks (that arise because of implementing a response), Contingency Plan, Risk Response Owners, Fallback Plans (if contingency plans are not effective), Reserves/Contingency [  & Risk Triggers, Contracts. 1. Strategies for Negative Risks (or) Threats 1. Risk Register Updates (see above) ^^ 2. Strategies for Positive Risks (or) Opportunities 2. Risk-related Contract Decisions 3. Contingent Response Strategies 3. Project Management Plan Updates No O.P.A & E.E.F 4. Expert Judgment 4. Project Document Updates 38 Monitor and Control Risks: The process of IMPLEMENTING risk response plans , TRACKING identified risks , MONITORING residual risks , IDENTIFYING new risks , and EVALUATING risk process effectiveness throughout the project. #TT5: Focuses on functionality, looking at HOW the project has met its goals for delivering the scope over time. Workarounds are unplanned responses developed to deal with the occurrence of the unanticipated events or problems on the project. # Risk Register Updates: Outcomes of Risk Audits and Reassessments, Identification of New Risks, Closing Risks that no longer applicable, Details what happened when Risks occurred, and Lessons Learned. 1. Risk Register 1. Risk Audits 1. Risk Register Updates (see above) 2. Risk Reassessment 2. Project Management Plan 2. Change Requests 3. Reserve Analysis 3. Work Performance Information (D & M Proj Exec) 3. Project Management Plan Updates 4. Status Meetings (Team Meetings) 4. Performance Reports (Report Performance) 4. Project Document Updates 5. Technical Performance Measurement 5. OPA Updates No O.P.A & E.E.F 6. Variance and Trend Analysis M&C PLANNING 1. Risk Register 2. Risk Management Plan PLANNING PLANNING PLANNING PLANNING

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