Drought, A Global Perspective: Efforting Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System

Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

INSPIRE , Krakow, Poland, June 23-25, 2010

Outline
The NDMC
NDMC Program Areas Collaborations: International

Drought Monitoring and Early Warning (DEWS)
USDM Inputs NADM Seasonal Drought Outlook (forecast) Impacts

New Wave of Tools
Remote Sensing Models/Land Data Simulations (LDAS)

NIDIS Need for a Global Drought Preparedness Network Summary

National Drought Mitigation Center

Founded: 1995 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Mission: To lessen societal vulnerability to drought by promoting planning and the adoption of appropriate risk management techniques.

NDMC Program Objectives
Improve the science of drought monitoring, planning, and mitigation Build awareness of drought and its impacts on society and the environment, and how human actions affect our vulnerability to drought Focus the attention of policy makers on the importance of drought policy and planning in the wise stewardship of natural resources RESEARCH, OUTREACH, AND TRAINING

NDMC Organizational Overview
(Mike Hayes)

Staff backgrounds: Climatology Meteorology Hydrology Water Resources

Staff backgrounds: Planning Economics Public Participation Rural Sociology Anthropology Journalism

Staff backgrounds: GIS Remote Sensing Geography Ecology

23 diverse faculty & staff 4 graduate students 3 visiting international scientists

NDMC’s Monitoring Program Area .

ISDR. and CCD • World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • US AID • Various regional and national drought centers • Numerous government agencies and universities in different countries .• UN organizations: FAO.

SPI Global applications (established) Flexible to a variety of needs Provided to over 65 countries 150 + scientists Over 50+ visiting scientists .

5 .SPI Applications Forecasted Probability for SPI < -1.

Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices .

The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS) Allows for early drought detection Improves response (proactive) Data and tools for decision support “Triggers” actions within a drought plan A critical mitigation action Foundation of a drought plan .

etc. media. extension.Components of a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Monitoring AND Forecasting Access to timely data Synthesis/analysis of data used to “trigger” set actions within a drought plan Tools for decision makers Efficient dissemination/communication (WWW.) Drought risk planning Education and Awareness .

the rapid onset of National Drought Centers/Strategies JRC-EDO Australia Canada United States DMCSEE/Slovenia Spain South Africa Portugal South Korea China India Pakistan Morocco Syria Brazil (Sao Paulo state) Jordan Iran ..…….

Drought Monitoring State of the Science: Where are we now? WCC-3. or for various season(s)……or for both! .GDPN/GEOSS is a way to learn/leverage from one another Canada/Mexico/United States UN/WMO/others Many regions/countries are working together to better monitor drought Monitoring of impacts globally is virtually nonexistent Early warning/monitoring just one key: THEN WHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning for adaptation Many indicators/indices don’t reflect reality in various regions.

Drought Monitoring State of the Science: Where are we now? Heightened awareness as a result of IPCC AR4 An explosion of good work/tools/products out there over the past 5 years Impediments remain Lack of coordination Lack of trigger ties to any drought plans Resources Lack of data/long-term data Lack of impact data/collection Lack of institutional cooperation Lack of drought “mitigation” plans .

1980-2008 Disaster Events Hurricanes 27 Tornadoes 16 Droughts 14 Floods 13 Fires 9 Winter-related 11 Total 90 Damage$ 367 34 180 70 21 39 711 .Billion Dollar Disasters NCDC.

Approaches to Drought Assessment Single index or indicator (parameter) Multiple indices or indicators Composite Indicator .

WRCC). Drought Monitor Since 1999. SC’s.The U.S. USDA.) (~260 experts) . and the NDMC have produced a weekly composite drought map with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies • Western Region Climate Center on board 2008 •CalDry listserver hosted by CA DWR • 10 authors in all • Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s. NCDC. federal/state agencies. etc. NOAA (CPC.

The Drought Monitor Concept A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map “Convergence of evidence” approach Trying to capture these characteristics: the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) spatial extent probability of occurrence Impacts Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks .

S.U. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2%tile) .

Veg.Mesonet data In The West: . Drought Monitor . Streamflow .Integrates Key Drought Indicators: U.KBDI . Health Index .Reservoir levels .Sat.Palmer Drought Index .Modeled Soil Moisture .SPI .SWSI .7-Day Avg.Soil Moisture .Precipitation Anomalies Growing Season: .Streamflow Created in ArcGIS .Snowpack (SNOTEL) .Crop Moisture Index .SWE .S.

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Presidential/Congressional/Governor briefings NIDIS portal/portlet A model of interagency collaboration .5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/year Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet /radio/ Nightly Network News/CNN/NPR/etc.The Drought Monitor is Widely Used Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NWS DGT/State drought plan triggers ~3.

History of the North American Drought Monitor (NADM) The concept for the NADM was developed and discussed in 2002 The first NADM map was released in March 2003 The first NADM map in all three languages (English. Spanish. and French)was released in October 2003 .

Canada • • • North American Drought Monitor Partners Agriculture and Agrifood Canada Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Mexico • • National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN-Servicio Meteorologico Nacional) CONAGUA (Comision Nacional del Agua) United States • • • • National Drought Mitigation Center National Climatic Data Center Climate Prediction Center United States Department of Agriculture .

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. and initial conditions.and short-range forecasts and models such as the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts Soil moisture tools based on the GFS model and the Constructed Analogue on Soil (CAS) moisture.S. climatology. the Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal precipitation forecasts. Seasonal Drought Outlook Issued every two weeks CPC monthly precipitation outlook CPC long-lead seasonal 90-day forecasts Various medium.U.

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What we’ve learned: Defining Impacts Hydrological Water Supply Snow Depth Recreation Tourism Hydropower Agricultural Meteorological Rainfall deficiencies Soils Crops Range Livestock Forests Socio-economic & Political Human Impact Time/Duration of the event .

edu Sponsor: USDA-Risk Management Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services Program (TRACS) .unl.The Drought Impact Reporter v2 http://droughtreporter.

Why Track Drought Impacts? Establish an impacts baseline for monitoring Climate change To know where to direct relief To reduce vulnerability in advance of the next drought “Ground truth” indices No single method exists for collecting and/or quantifying drought losses Very little in the way of environmental or qualitative collection .

Some DIR Factoids Established in 2005 DIR DB now contains ~12.000 impacts 1.891 impacts added in 2009 .

Colorado State University .000+ volunteers covering all 50 states!! * CoCoRaHS “Message of the Day” * Monthly e-mail reminders * Guide to reporting drought impacts * Banners on the Web Courtesy: Henry Reges.Promoting the “drought impact reporting” idea to their volunteers… * 14.

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI): a new integrated approach for monitoring drought stress in vegetation. Dole (NOAA PSD).  Lead Co‐I). and B. R. D.  Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) – integrates satellite‐ based vegetation index (VI) observations. Wilhite (NDMC).D. T.  and general environmental information (e.unl. soils. Verdin (USGS. LeComte (NOAA CPC). Reed. E.htm Brown. Project supported by: NNH07ZDA001N: NASA Decision Support through Earth Science Research Results . Tadesse. “National Drought Monitoring System for Drought Early Warning Using Hydrologic and Ecologic Observations from NASA Satellite Data” Investigators: S. PI). 45(1):16-46. B. climate‐based drought index data.  D. Nghiem (JPL.F. 2008. G. J. o NDMC and USGS Center for   EROS are working to develop a   MODIS‐based VegDRI to replace  the current AVHRR VI‐based  operational VegDRI products. GIScience and Remote Sensing. and elevation). V.J. Wardlow. G.. Njoku (JPL) http://drought. A. M.Initial Remote Sensing Efforts to Support the USDM 1. Hayes.C.edu/vegdri/VegDRI_Main. P. LULC type..g. J. R. Brakenridge (Darmouth   DFO).

down to the deepest aquifer Matt Rodell NASA GSFC . Snow Snow.Remote Sensing of the Water Cycle Radiation Soil Vegetation Snow. AMSR-E. Traditional radiation-based remote sensing technologies cannot sense water below the first few centimeters of the snowcanopy-soil column GRACE GRACE is unique in its ability to monitor water at all levels. etc. Rainfall Moisture Aqua: MODIS. Ice.

Kustas. M.S. Mecikalski. http://dx.M.R.1029/2006JD007507. Journal of Geophysical Research. Mecikalksi (U of Alabama). . Norman.F. Surface moisture climatology. Anderson USDA ARS (2008) SEASONAL ANOMALIES (9-year record) April – September 2008 Anderson. Otkin.C.doi.C. Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) “A GOES Thermal-based Drought Early Warning Index for NIDIS” Investigators:  M. B. J.. J.. J.  X. and J.R.  Kustas (USDA ARS). II. Brown (USGS‐EROS) Project supported by: OAR-CPO-2009-2001430: NOAA Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP_ Competition – Drought Forecast Products and Applications ΔESI Drier Wetter Courtesy: M. Wardlow (NDMC).Initial Remote Sensing Efforts to Support the USDM 4. K. Mo  (NCEP‐CPC). W.A. Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) depicts ‘moisture’ stress from both  the soil and vegetation canopy based on ET flux estimates from a land surface model (ALEXI & DisALEXI) that relies primarily on  remotely sensed thermal observations. W. J. A climatological study of evapotranspiration and moisture stress across the continental U.P. based on thermal remote sensing. Svoboda (NDMC). 2007.org/10. 112.. D11112. M.C.P. Zhan (NESDIS). Anderson (USDA ARS)..

NASA. snow water equivalent. evaporation and precipitation. satellite data and radar precipitation measurements. and the University of Washington at 1/8 degree (about 14 kilometer) resolution across North America and at 1/4 degree resolution globally. Outputs: soil moisture. The SM anomalies and percentiles are based on a 28 year climatology (1980 . and is therefore not affected by Numerical WP forcing biases. total runoff.2007) . Near real-time using existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Schemes (SVATS) by NCEP.What is the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)? The Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) consists of uncoupled models forced with observations. Princeton University. streamflow.

. limited use of remote sensing-derived inputs (primarily NDVI).Currently.Limited number of data inputs compared to the USDM 2.Data inconsistencies (e.g. format. Challenges: 1. and quality) among countries 3. specific measure.USDM Concept Expanded to North America The monthly North American Drought Monitor (NADM) was introduced in 2003 and built upon the USDM concept. .

2006) Goal of NIDIS: Improve the nation’s capacity to ‘proactively’ manage droughtrelated risks by providing decision makers with the best available information and tools to assess the impact of drought and to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. www.drought.National Integrated Drought  Information System (NIDIS) A NOAA-led Federal. State. Tribal and Local Partnership (Public Law 109-430.gov .

www.drought. South Dakota State University. University of South Carolina.NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date): Other Partners: Western Governors Association (WGA) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Regional Climate Centers American Association of State Climatologists Indigenous Waters Network Weather Channel Numerous Universities including: University of Oklahoma. and Cornell University. University of Washington.gov .

Courtesy: NIDIS .

Moving Forward: Scales Immediate future development in the USDP will be aimed at: Spinning up regional pilot activities and regional depiction of drought • What tools are currently in place that we can leverage in the SE US and the upper Colorado Basin for purposes of mitigation of impacts and adaptation? Are tools applicable to local/regional level or are they transferable nationwide? Who are the key local/regional players? What else have we missed? • • • Working with GEO to begin addressing global and international drought monitoring and forecasting .

Hydrology. 2) tribal groups. state.NIDIS Pilots A Geographic Framework for Developing Drought Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Local-Scale Decision Making + Integrated Climate. state. Ecosystems. tribal. local: Experience & Knowledge Decision Support NIDIS Pilot Areas •‘Issue-based’ EWS tailored to the critical decisions and issue facing each basin • Each EWS will be unique with specific inputs and methods developed and implemented by local experts • Partnerships between: 1) federal. and local agencies. and 4) private sector . 3) other types of NGOs. & Remote Sensing Info & Data = Watershed.

Drought-related maps and web sites that are regularly updated and can be made available only as a stand-alone page. Drought-related maps and web sites that are regularly updated and can be rendered in a USDP portlet. of a non-time sensitive nature.0 or higher. . Non-regularly issued reports related to drought.Moving Forward: Call for Content The USDP is looking for partners to contribute the following four types of information (in priority order): Web Mapping Services (WMS) that meet the standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) 1.

and future needs and benefits. • that the most urgent need is for much closer partnerships between the providers and users of climate services. and the availability and quality control of climate data. and – that major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time-range and skill of climate prediction through new research and modelling initiatives. and – to improve the observational basis for climate prediction and services. – that great scientific progress has been made especially by the World Climate Programme and its associated activities over the past 30 years. which provides already a firm basis for the delivery of a wide range of climate services.WCC3 Executive Summary concluded: • that present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present. . particularly in developing countries.

and – Efficient and enduring capacity building through education. – The World Climate Research Programme. . between the providers and users of climate services. – Climate user interface mechanisms focused on building linkages and integrating information.• called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services: – The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities. underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. and – provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data. and strengthened outreach and communication. training. including sectororiented information to support adaptation activities. • supported the development of the proposed Global Framework for Climate Services. – Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products. at all levels.

GEOSS will be a global and flexible network of content providers allowing decision makers to access an extraordinary range of information at their desk. .What is GEOSS?: The Global Earth Observation System of Systems The Global Earth Observation System of Systems will provide decision-support tools to a wide variety of users. As with the Internet.

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we can share information and experiences to reduce the impacts of drought. many nations will be unable to improve their drought coping capacity. regional. . and national partnerships. through global. Collectively.Global Drought Preparedness Network Individually.

Potential Regional Networks Southeastern and Central European Network North American Network Mediterranean Network Caribbean Network Asian Network West Asia Network South American Network Sub-Saharan African Network .

does anybody see it?” .Future Drought Monitoring Challenges The Big Five: Impact collection/quantification Soil moisture (especially in situ) Hydrology (surface and groundwater) Application of remotely sensed/modeled products operationally (trust) (operational) Ecological/Environmental (D-x E?) “If a drought occurs in the desert.

Summary Drought is not just a physical event Vulnerability matters Impacts (establish a baseline) Global DEWS: Heighten Awareness and act as a Focusing Tool for Policy Makers Planning. mitigation. policy. adaptation Promote and Encourage Citizen Science .

MIND THE IMPACTS .

edu Please visit the NDMC website for more information: http://www.Thank You Please contact me at: Any Questions? Mark Svoboda National Drought Mitigation Center 402-472-8238 msvoboda2@unl.edu .unl.drought.