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# My Climate Science Journal By Ian Beardsley Copyright 2014 by Ian Beardsley

I am taking Climate Science online at MIT. I take copious notes, and try to put things in the most understandable terms for myself. I would like to share what I am learning, because I think humanity does not face a more important subject than this one, today. I find, with a little work, some of the basic concepts behind the climate process really can be made more accessible to the non-scientist beyond just saying burning fossil fuels warms the planet. I think putting things in their simplest terms, without losing the dynamics, which can be done with a little work, is key to the success of humanity. Ian Beardsley March 14, 2014

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radiative equilibrium, that is, it loses as much radiation as it receives. Currently we are slightly out of radiative balance, the Earth absorbs about one watt per square meter more than it loses. !That means its temperature is not steady, but increasing. The solar luminosity is:
L0 = 3.9 " 10 26 J / s

!
1.5 " 1011 m

!

S0 =

## 3.9 " 10 26 = 1,370 watts / meter 2 4 # (1.5 " 1011 ) 2

That is the amount of energy per second per square meter hitting the Earth. The radiation, F, is proportional to the temperature, T to the fourth power, and equal by the Stefan-Boltzman constant, sigma:
F = "T 4

## " = 5.67 # 10 \$8 Wm \$2K \$4

This gives the temperature, T, at the top of the Suns photosphere is: T=6,000 degrees Kelvin The planetary albedo, a, is the amount of radiation from the Sun that the Earth reflects back into space which is 30%. Therefore a=0.3 is the planetary albedo. Therefore the Earth receives 70% of the Suns light, or, in other words:

## S0 (1 " a)#r 2 S0 = (1 " a) = \$T 4 2 4 #r 4 T = 255K = "18 o C

That is the temperature the Earth would be if it had no atmosphere, minus eighteen degrees centigrade. The observed average temperature is:
T = 15 o C

!

Let us look at a simple model if there is an atmosphere: We have same amount of radiation entering system as leaving, that is, sigma T to the fourth effective equals sigma T to the fourth of the atmosphere:
"Te4 = "Ta4

Sigma T of the surface to the fourth = amount of radiation coming in from the sun, sigma T effective to the fourth plus the amount of radiation coming down from the atmosphere, sigma T of the atmosphere to the 4.

## Radiative Equilibrium Top Of Atmosphere:

"Ta4 =
S0 (1 # a p ) = "Te4 4

Surface:
!

"TS4 = "Ta4 +

S0 (1 # a p ) = 2"Te4 4

## TS = 21/ 4 Te = 303K " 30deg C

!

This is actually warmer than the average annual temperature of the surface of the earth. Reasons why are real atmosphere is not opaque and heat is transported as well by convection. In reality almost twice as much radiation is received from the atmosphere than from incoming radiation from the sun. This shows the power of the greenhouse effect. Most of the cooling is in the evaporation of water, especially in the tropics. Most of the radiation is radiated in the subtropics where there are no clouds. But we have not considered the emissivity, epsilon, of the atmosphere. It is the amount of radiation absorbed by the atmosphere that is emitted. We apply the same principle as above, but include epsilon:
S0 (1 " # ) = \$%T 4 earth 4

Alpha is the planetary albedo, which is about 33% and S not is the solar constant, which is closer to 1,350 than our earlier approximation. Intensity up from atmosphere plus intensity down from atmosphere equals intensity up from the ground, or:
2"#T 4 atmosphere = "#T 4 ground Tground = 21/ 4 Tatmosphere \$ 1.2Tatmosphere

The calculation yields 295 Kelvin for the Earth, and that observed is 251 Kelvin. Thus with a simple one layer atmosphere model, we have closely predicted the planets temperature. Venus with an albedo 71% yields 240 Kelvin but in reality is 700 Kelvin. The discrepancy is in its higher abundance of greenhouse gases responsible for a runaway greenhouse effect. Mars, with an albedo of 17% yields 216 degrees Kelvin but is observed to be 240 degrees Kelvin. Venus=2600, Mars=259, and Earth = 1350 for solar constants in watts per square meter. Epsilon for earth is about 96%-99%.

Climate Defined: Climate is the statistics of the weather including not just the average weather, but also the statistics of its variability, commonly calculated over periods of a year or more. The progression of seasons is not considered an example of climate variability. Separating signal from the noise is separating climate from the weather. That is we can say it will be warmer in the summer than in the winter, but we cant forecast the weather for any particular day. Climate is determined by (1) the energy balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. That balance is affected by greenhouse gases, or the composition of the atmosphere, in other words. (2) atmospheric and oceanic convection, the flow or transfer of heat within various substances like, water (the ocean) or gases (the atmosphere). (3) Looking at climate change through geologic time, as a record of climate is embedded in the geological record, the substances that were in the atmosphere during an ice age in other words are recorded in the strata, which can be dated, so we can use this information to model where the climate is going. Climate Cycles Five billion years ago, when the earth and sun formed, the sun was much cooler than it is today, with an output of about 0.7 of its present output. Yet we know that water existed on the earth in liquid form, when it should have been ice. This is known as the Faint Young Star Paradox; the Earth should have been frozen up to 2.5 billion years ago. Five hundred and fifty million years ago the Earth went through climate swings, being a snowball and then free of ice. Snowball Earth can be accounted for by positive feedback. Albedo is the percent of incoming radiation that is reflected into space. Snow has a higher albedo, so glaciation, or increased snow, increases the albedo of the earth making it emit more radiation back into a space making it cooler which, in turn, makes more snow, which increases the albedo still more, until you get a runaway icehouse, or Snowball Earth.
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Fifty million years ago the earth reached its thermal maximum (Paleocene-Eocene). It took 20,000 years to develop, and 100,000 years to go away. The earth is cooling from that thermal maximum 50 million years ago. For the past three million years glacial cycles have been going on with a periodicity of about 20,000 to 100,000 years. They are due to orbital dynamics of the earth. They are the glacialinterglacial cycles caused by eccentricity of the Earth orbit, which is a cycle of one hundred thousand years, the obliquity of the earth or change in tilt which is a cycle of 41 thousand years, and precession or wobble of the earths spin, which has a cycle of 22 thousand years. The story of the earth has been a story of freezing over for 100,000 years, then briefly warming. We have been in one of these short warm periods for the past 10,000 years, called the Holocene, and it would seem it is responsible for the beginning of civilization 7,000 years ago. The last ice cover was about 18,000 years ago. Composition Of The Atmosphere Through Time The early Earth Atmosphere was probably predominantly hydrogen and helium (H2, He) but was lost to space. The later atmosphere was due to volcanic emissions, and impact by comets and meteorites (H20, CO2, SO2, CO, S2, Cl2, N2, H2, NH3, CH4). Oxygen came later as a by-product of living organisms. The origin of CO2 was volcanic emissions. It was absorbed by water forming carbonic acid, was deposited in the soil, then underwent reactions to become calcium carbonate:
H 2O + CO2 " H 2CO3 ( soil) H 2CO3 + CaSiO3 " CaCO3 + SiO2 + H 2O

## Lifetime of substances in the atmosphere is given by:

!

Abundance (Gton)/Emissions (Gtons/year) = Lifetime (yr) CO2 has a lifetime in the atmosphere of 100 years. CO2 exists in vegitation, soils, oceans, atmosphere and sediments. Lifetime
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relies in the simple model above relies on abundance and emissions are constant, that they are equilibrium processes. Structure Of The Atmosphere Divided by vertical gradient of temperature, there are four layers to the Earth Atmosphere: Troposphere at 10-18 kilometers, Stratosphere ending at 50 kilometers, Mesosphere ending at 85 kilometers, then the Thermosphere. 80% of the mass is in the troposphere. In climate science we deal mostly with the troposphere, and a little with the stratosphere. Heat Distribution Over The Earth, where heat is gained, where heat is lost. Most of the warming is in the continents, Africa, South America, Canada, Asia. We should see a cooling of the lower stratosphere when we have a warming of the lower troposphere as a part of radiative balance of the planet. Raising the temperature one degree centigrade of a cubic meter of sea water requires 4,000 times more energy input than to raise a cubic meter of atmosphere one degree. Water has a high specific heat, that is it takes one calorie to raise a gram of it one degree centigrade. That is one factor that keeps the Earth from getting too warm. The vast majority of change in the energy climate system has gone into the ocean, mostly into the upper 700 meters. Water expands when you increase its temperature, like most substances, and the sea rise we are seeing is in part due to that. But most is due to the melting of land ice. Most of the land mass in the Northern Hemisphere, so, in the spring, when there is a lot of plant growth in the Northern Hemisphere, there is a drop in CO2. Annually, anthropogenic emissions increase CO2 by about nine gigatons or 900 terragrams. This is only about 1% of the burden, but it must be remembered that is annual and increases with time.
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Precipitation is the product of condensation of water vapor that falls under gravity, like rain, sleet, snow, hail, Most of the CO2 is absorbed by the ocean and the decrease its PH, making it more acidic. What are the effects on the corral reefs and plankton? The temperature is pretty much constant in the tropics throughout the year. Prevalence of ocean in the southern hemisphere keeps that area relatively stable. During the spring and summer foliage comes out and absorbs CO2, then when leaves fall, and decay, that CO2 is returned to the atmosphere in the Fall. Most cooling is in evaporation of water, especially in the tropics. Radiation is absorbed in the tropics and emitted in the poles. The Ocean and the atmosphere transport absorption in the tropics to the poles, where it is emitted. The tropics absorb more radiation than they emit and the poles emit more radiation than they receive.

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If radiation comes in at an angle to a surface, its amount per unit area is the projection of the vector upon the normal to the surface, that component which is in that direction, in other words. A beam of radiation with intensity I sub lamda is the amount of radiation passing through a surface area, dA, within a solid angle d-Omega per wavelength interval per unit time where dE/dt is the amount of energy per unit time, so we have:

I" =

And, we say the flux density is the normal component of intensity integrated over all solid angles, or:
F" =

\$I
#

"

cos%d#

Total flux density is the flux density integrated over all wavelengths:
!
#

F=

\$ F d"
"
0

And, the total flux is the integral of the total flux density over area and is the radiant power in watts:
f =

" FdA
A

A blackbody is one that absorbs all incoming radiation and follows Plancks Law for temperature. Blackbody radiation is the radiant intensity one would observe under ideal conditions of local thermodynamic equilibrium. It turns out to be an excellent approximation for absorption and emission by our atmosphere, except maybe at high latitudes. It follows something called Plancks Law:
2 hc 2 B" (T ) = 5 hc / "kT " [e # 1]

k is botzmanns constant, h is plancks constant, lambda is wavelength, c is the speed of light, B sub lambda is blackbody radiant intensity, and T is temperature.

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Emission of radiation by atoms is due to incoming light changing the orbit of electrons around the nucleus. If they fall in from a higher energy orbit to a lower one, they emit photons at the corresponding wavelength, or color. If light makes them jump to a higher energy orbit, as in the case of absorption, they absorb at the corresponding wavelength. Compounds and molecules have more methods of absorbing and emitting than atoms because they can move in more ways, however N2 and O2 are transparent to radiation because they are homonuclear diatomic (composed of identical atoms). They are transparent to radiation because there is no dipole moment due symmetricity (no difference between center of charge and center of mass). But in other non-symmetric gases they can have many vibrational and rotational modes. There are all kind of energy transitions possible for absorption and emission. Polyatomic Molecules 3N-6 Vibrational Modes (N the number of atoms) And many rotational and vibrational modes. Vibrational Modes of the plentiful greenhouse gas H2O: O-H symmetric stretching H-O-H bending O-H asymmetric stretching Important to radiative transfer is Kirchoffs Law. That is emission and absorption are the a same for gases at same temperature:
a" = # "

!

## Summary: E total = E atomic + E vibratonal + E rotational + E translational E is energy.

! Scattering Of Radiation (types of scattering)

Rayleigh Scattering, Mie Scattering for small particles, Mi scattering for large particles. The sky is blue because of scattering of shortwavelenghts. Reddening at sunset is because red wave lengths are more penetrative.

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Radiative Equilibrium Modeling temperature as a function of altitude (Leaving out convection at this stage). How long does it take the atmosphere in a given state to relax to a radiative equilibrium? It takes a long time in the Earths atmosphere to be achieved. It takes a few tens of days for the troposphere to come into radiative equilibrium. Order of 100 days for the stratosphere. It takes tens if not hundreds of days for an atmosphere out of radiative equilibrium to come into equilibrium. The cooling of the stratosphere means global warming is due to CO2 and not a warming sun, because it should cool when the troposphere warms, by models. Taking out C02 leads to warming of the stratosphere because it must get hotter to radiate same amount of energy it could with CO2.

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March 25, 2014 Climate Science, Convection We refine our model by including convection. Convection is heat transport by movement of a mass of fluid from one place to another. In climate physics it is the vertical transfer of heat by rising warm air and sinking cool air. Our model is too hot at or near the surface of the earth, too cold at a near tropopause, lapse rate of temperature is too large in troposphere, however the stratosphere model is close. We must look at convection, it is very important. It is as important as radiation in transporting enthalpy in the vertical and controls water and vapor clouds, which are the two most important aspects to radiative transfer. The mechanism is warmer substances are less dense and less dense substances rise because they have less per volume for gravity to act on them. When they cool, they sink. Stability In a valley a ball will roll down a hill until it settles at the lowest point, which is an equilibrium state, or solution. Another equilibrium solution is when the ball is perched on top of a hill with valleys on either side; it wont go out of equilibrium until it is pushed in either direction, in which case it would roll down a hill. Hydrostatic Equilibrium Gravity accelerates a gas downward, net pressure makes it rise upwards.

wiegt = "g#\$x\$y\$z # = density g = gravity \$x\$y\$z = volume = %V pressure : p\$x\$y " ( p + \$p)(\$x\$y ) or : p%A " ( p + %p)( %A) = pressure %A = Area
Pressure is force per unit area and that above is the net pressure, the pressure at the bottom of the box minus that at the top. Pressure being force per unit area gives force when multiplied by area.

dw dt

=m

## d 2z = %g( "#x#y#z) % (#p#x#y ) dt 2

clearly dw 'p = %g % & dt 'z & = specific _ volume = 1/ " = volume / mass

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"=

RT p

!

## \$p RT \$p = "g " =0 \$z p \$z 1 \$p g =" p \$z RT pressure = p T = temperature

"g " #
This is the hydrostatic equation for an ideal gas at rest in a gravitational field. We integrate the equation, and:
p = p0e "2 / H RT H# = scale _ hieght g For _ Earth _ H \$ 8 km

We assert the pressure in the vertical of the atmosphere is approximately exponential. The real atmosphere is not isothermal, the temperature varies, but not over a a huge fraction. Buoyoancy

dw = "g# b\$x\$y\$z " \$p\$x\$y dt # b = density _ of _ fluid dw &p = "g% b dt &z &p = "g / % e &z dw % " %e =g b 'B dt %e
Alpah sub b and alpha sub e are specific volumes of fluids, b in the sample, e the surrounding environment. B is buoyancy.

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If the fluid in the box, or sample is less dense than the fluid in the surrounding environment (has a larger specific volume) it will accelerate upwards. It is Archimedes law. We can determine whether a density in a gravitational field will be stable. Adibiatic Sample (No Heat Is Added Or Subtracted) Buoyancy And Entropy
specific _ volume : " = 1/ # specific _ entropy : s " = " ( p, s)

Specific volume is a function of pressure and entropy. By the chain rule and using Maxwells Law (from first law of thermodynamics):
% \$T ( % \$# ( ("# ) p = ' * "s = ' * "s & \$s ) p & \$p ) s B=g ("# ) p

## , = adiabiatic _ lapse _ rate

The sample will be positively buoyant if its entropy exceeds that of its environment.
!

Adiabatic Lapse Rate (From First Law of Theromodynamics And Ideal Gas Law)
Q=T

ds dT dx = cv +p dt dt dt

Q = total _ heating c v = heat _ capacity dT dp Q = cp "# = 0 : adiabatic dt dt c p dT + gdz = 0 : hydrostatic dT g = " \$ %d : adiabatic _ lapse _ rate & 1o C /100 m = 1K /100 m dz c g %= cp c p = cv + R

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If entropy doesnt change at all, there is neutral stability. Entropy decreases with altitude then the sample is positively buoyant (unstable) and accelerates upward. Entropy increases with altitude results in entropy less than its environment, and would be negatively buoyant and would accelerate downwards, and that state is stable. The radiative equilibrium of the troposphere if you calculate its entropy, you find it decreases upward. So with decreasing entropy with altitude, it is unstable. The radiation is constantly driving a state of instability and so you get convection where warm samples flow upward and cool samples flow downward. With radiation driving instability and convection working towards stability, you usually get stability. It drives the atmosphere to a neutral state because radiative timescales are long and convective timescales are short.

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March 27, 2014 Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Adjusted for convection we have 313 degrees K when model is 333K. Still a little too warm. The reason is that in the real atmosphere convection involves the phase change of water known as moist convection. A cloud is a collection of very tiny condensed water doplets, or ice crystals. They are so tiny they can be considered to be in suspension. They are so small their terminal velocities are small compared to air motions. Clouds form when air expands and cools. Their saturation vapor pressure drops. Water vapor condenses. This happens when there is higher pressure at the surface and lower pressure higher in the atmosphere: air rises, expands and cools. When water vapor condenses it releases latent heat of vaporization and when it freezes it releases the latent heat of fusion. Our model has to be adjusted for the heat when water condenses. Condensed water also evaporates, absorbing latent heat of vaporization or fusion, causing air to cool. Moist convection redistributes water from the surface up through the atmosphere. Moist convection is the agent of lofting water and makes the atmosphere moist. Remember, water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. At 6 hectopascals, around 0 degrees C, water exists in all three phases. As one increases temperature on increases saturation vapor pressure, it increases exponentially. As one applies pressure to water-ice, one can melt it. Heterogeneous Nucleation: the condensation of vapor onto pre-existing solid or liquid particles called aerosols. We dont need to know how fast this takes place. The time is nominal. Precipitiation, small water particles in suspension collide, coalesce into sizes heavy enough to fall, called stochastic coalescence. Not very effective. Saturation Entropy s*

"T% " p% " q * (T, p) % s* = c p ln\$ ' ( Rd ln\$ ' + Lv \$ ' # T & # T0 & # p0 & Lv = latent _ heat _ of _ vaporization q* = saturation _ specific _ humidity
The upward flux in the clouds must equal downward flux in between clouds:

MT =

"S d = #Q "z

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Amount of water evaporating from the ocean must equal precipitation (water re-entering ocean): Precipitiation=Evaporization=Radiative Cooling (of atmosphere) Two Layer Radiative-Convective Model

"Te 4 = effective _ from _ sun "T14 = radiates _ up _ and _ down _ from _ layer _ one
It receives a convective heat flux from the surface Fs and it also convects a heat flux, Fc , towards layer two.

## "Ts4 = temperature _ of _ surface

Layer 2; Emits radiation upward and downward at "T2 4 and receives convective heat flux from Fc .
T1 = T2 + "T Ts = T2 + 2 "T ! at _ top _ of _ atmosphere : T2 = Te T1 = Te + "T Ts = Te + 2 "T Surface : Fs + #Ts4 = #Te 4 + #T14 Layer2 : 2#Te 4 = #T14 + Fc

## (F_c is convective flux coming from first layer)

!

Define : x "

#T Te

Fs = \$Te 4 [1 + (1 + x ) 4 % (1 + 2 x ) 4 ] Fc = \$Te 4 [2 % (1 + x ) 4 ]

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April 3, 2014 We spoke of heat transfer in the vertical due to radiative transfer and convective transfer, now we talk about motion of both air and water in both the horizontal and vertical directions, which would be air currents and ocean currents involving the coriolis force or acceleration of air and water due to the rotation of the earth in other words, which is to the right of its motion in the northern hemisphere and the left in the southern hemisphere. That which we see are things like the westerly trade winds and other winds, with their associated eddies. This is important for the motion of air and water from the tropics to the poles. We begin with the exact solution for a planet like earth, but without continents.
du \$p = fv " # dt \$x dv \$p = " fu " # dt \$z # = specific _ volume p = pressure f = 2% sin & = coriolis _ parameter % = angular _ rotation _ earth

(u and v are velocities, east-west and north-south respectively and theta is a measure of latitude) Geostrophic Balance Enough East-West motion to balance the pressure gradient:

"

#p = \$ fu #z

It is a fundamental balance we see in the real world. This is why we see air circulating clockwise around high pressure systems and counter clockwise around low pressure systems. And similarily for east-west pressure gradients:

"

#p = fv #x

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Combining this with hydrostatic balance we have: #p " = \$ fu #y #p " = \$g #z E lim inate _ p _ by _ cross _ differentiation % # ln(" ) ( % # ln(T ) ( #u f = \$g' * = \$ g' * #z & #y ) & #y ) Which is the Thermal Wind Equation. This is the vertical derivative of the east-west wind times the coriolis parameter. It says when temperature decrease towards the pole, zonal wind (west-east component of the wind) must increase with altitude. Because they are west-east winds, they dont transport energy in the north-south direction. Two potential problems with this solution: Not enough angular momentum available for required east-west wind and equilibrium solution may be unstable. One must be very careful to distinguish between equilibrium solutions and stability. Warm air extends towards the poles and cold air flows towards the equator. That tends to warm-up high latitudes and cool down low latitudes. A pendulum is stable, it continues oscillating in the same way, about the center. But moving, it is not in equilibria; that is when it is still, hanging straight down. Stable solutions oscillate. Warm moist air moves to the poles, dry cool air to the equator. When warm air moves up, it pushes cool air down; cool air moving down pushes warm air up. This is oscillatory. Eddies transport energy away from the equator. Eddies drive the temperature gradients down to about half of what they would be in the radiative-convective equilibrium solution. It is not exactly clear how climate change effects eddies, but it is a subject of vigorous research. The Story So Far. First we considered an Earth that is in radiative equilibrium, that is, has as much radiation coming in from the sun, as leaving. We noticed that the temperature of the atmosphere was the same as the effective radiation coming in from the sun and from that we were able to determine the temperature of the surface of the planet. But that was not good enough, we next considered an atmosphere with two layers instead of one and brought in the idea of convective equilibrium, where we get further heat transfer from convection, which is the rising of warm air and sinking of cool air. We also now considered the emmisivity of the atmospheric layers as well. Both radiative and convective heat transfer are vertical. We now turned to the horizontal components, which transfer heat. They are ocean and air currents. The wind in other words, for one thing. We find there is an exact solution where we learned wind velocities and directions are determined by the pressure of air, which is determined by its temperature, and are brought about by coriolis forces, which are those forces on the air which are caused by the rotation of the Earth, and the results depended on latitude.

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So, in order for earth to be in equilibrium it has to lose energy (heat) it gains and it does this through the mechanisms of radiating infrared radiation into space (radiative transfer), evaporate ocean water pulling it into the sky as water vapor to make clouds (convection), and create ocean and wind air currents (ocean streams and wind).

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