SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEM USING NEUROFUZZY

Sunil Kumar*
Dept. of ECE DGI, Gr. Noida, U.P., India 874480 !40 S"mee 07#$mail.%om

Kapil De& S'arma
Dept. (f Ele%troni%) En$$. DGI, Gr. Noida, U.P., India !808007888 Kd)'arma.en#$mail.%om

*a+ee& *an+an
Dept. of Ele%tri%al , Ele%troni%) En$$. DGI, Gr. Noida, U.P., India -el.No. E.mail of aut'or

ABSTRACT ABSTRACT
S'ort.term load fore%a)tin$ /S-012 i) a ne%e))ar3 dail3 ta)" for po4er di)pat%'. It) a%%ura%3 affe%t) t'e e%onomi% operation and relia5ilit3 of t'e )3)tem. -'i) paper pre)ent) a )olution met'odolo$3 u)in$ fu663 lo$i% approa%' and artifi%ial neural net4or" for )'ort term load fore%a)tin$ and i) implemented on 'i)tori%al 4eat'er )en)iti&e data i.e. temperature, 'umidit3, 4ind )peed and 'i)tori%al load data for fore%a)tin$ t'e load. -'e propo)ed fu663 lo$i% approa%' i) implemented on 4eat'er )en)iti&e data and t'e a%%ura%3 of t'e re)ult i) %ompared u)in$ t4o different mem5er)'ip fun%tion). 7rtifi%ial neural net4or" approa%' i) implemented on t'e propo)ed non.full3 %onne%ted neural net4or" %on)i)t) of fi&e full3 %onne%ted )upportin$ net4or") repre)entin$ 4eat'er &aria5le), da3 t3pe and load data a) input).
Keywords— 0oad fore%a)tin$, Nueral model, 1u663 lo$i%, Neurofu663.

1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION
1u663 )3)tem) and neural net4or") 'a&e attra%ted t'e intere)t of re)ear%'er) in &ariou) )%ientifi% and en$ineerin$ area). -'e num5er and &ariet3 of appli%ation) of fu663 lo$i% and neural net4or") 'a&e 5een in%rea)in$, ran$in$ from %on)umer produ%t) and indu)trial pro%e)) %ontrol to medi%al in)trumentation , information )3)tem) and de%i)ion anal3)i) .-'e main idea of fu663 lo$i% %ontrol /10C2 i) to 5uild a model of a 'uman %ontrol e8pert 4'o i) %apa5le of %ontrollin$ t'e plant 4it'out t'in"in$ in term) of a mat'emati%al model. -'e %ontrol e8pert )pe%ifie) 'i) %ontrol a%tion) in t'e form of lin$ui)ti% rule). -'e)e %ontrol rule) are tran) lated into t'e frame4or" of fu663 )et t'eor3 pro&idin$ a %al%ulu) 4'i%' %an )imulate t'e 5e'a&ior of t'e %ontrol e8pert. -'e )pe%ifi%ation of $ood lin$ui)ti% rule) depend) on t'e "no4led$e of t'e %ontrol e8pert, 5ut t'e tran)lation of t'e)e rule) into fu663 )et t'eor3 frame4or" i) not formali6ed and ar5itrar3 %'oi%e) %on%ernin$, for e8ample, t'e )'ape of mem5er)'ip fun%tion) 'a&e to 5e made. -'e 9ualit3 of fu663 lo$i% %ontroller %an 5e dra)ti%all3 affe%ted 53 t'e %'oi%e of mem5er)'ip fun%tion). -'u), met'od) for tunin$ fu663 lo$i% %ontroller) are ne%e))ar3 neural net4or") offer t'e po))i5ilit3 of )ol&in$ t'e pro5lem of tunin$. 7lt'ou$' a neural net4or" i) a5le to learn from t'e $i&en data, t'e

t'e output of t'e neuron i) ?> and 0 ot'er4i)e. t'e tran)ition from D5elon$ to a )etE to Dnot 5elon$ to a )etE i) $radual. "no4n a) )3napti% 4ei$'t).2. -'e 7NN model u)ed a non full3. 2. -'e re)ultin$ net4or" 4ill 5e more tran)parent and %an 5e ea)il3 re%o$ni6ed in t'e form of fu663 lo$i% %ontrol rule) or )emanti%).operati&e model)2 4or"in$ to4ard) a %ommon $oal or in mo)t of t'e e8i)tin$ neuro. @ -ran)fer 1un%tion A 7%ti&ation 1un%tion @ S%alin$ and 0imitin$. -'at i). :o4e&er.N/ Ele%tri%al load fore%a)tin$ i) an e))ential tool u)ed to en)ure t'at ener$3 )upplied 53 utilitie) meet t'e load plu) t'e ener$3 lo)t in t'e )3)tem. S'()T T*)+ L(A. 2. F()*-AST. 4'i%' i) an impro&ement o&er t'e e8i)tin$ neuro fu663 %ontroller). In %al%ulatin$ t'e output of t'e neuron.term load fore%a)tin$ 'a) $ained a $reat deal of intere)t and )e&eral re)ear%'er) 'a&e reported t'e effe%ti&ene)) of t'e 7NN approa%'.fu663 approa%'e). t'e a%ti&ation fun%tion ma3 5e in t'e form of a t're)'old fun%tion.1"ro#lem Formulation -'e propo)ed de&elopment and implementation of ne4 7NN 5a)ed te%'ni9ue for t'e )'ort.N/ 2. @ Error 1un%tion and Ba%".$ Short Term Load Forecasting Using Fu%%y Logic 2. )u%' a) D4ater i) 'otE or Dt'e temperature i) 'i$'E.1. Com5ination of neural net4or") and fu663 lo$i% offer) t'e po))i5ilit3 of )ol&in$ tunin$ pro5lem) and de)i$n diffi%ultie) of fu663 lo$i%. In t'i) paper. a) t'e name implie). @ (utput 1un%tion.fu663 %ontroller ar%'ite%ture i) propo)ed.1 Fu%%y Logic & Fu%%y Sets 7 fu663 )et.trained neural net4or" i) $enerall3 under)tood a) a 5la%" 5o8. t'e fun%tion of 4'i%' i) to modif3 t'e )3napti% 4ei$'t) of t'e net4or" in an orderl3 fa)'ion to attain a de)ired de)i$n o5+e%ti&e. It o&er%ome) t'e ma+or dra45a%") of t'e e8i)tin$ neuro. Interneuron %onne%tion )tren$t')./i&2 Cu)tomer %la)) 2. It re)em5le) t'e 5rain in t4o re)pe%t)= >. are u)ed to )tore t'e a%9uired "no4led$e. -'e pro%edure u)ed to perform t'e learnin$ pro%e)) i) %alled a learnin$ al$orit'm. Data )ele%tion and anal3)i) for )ele%tion of num5er of input &aria5le) t'ere i) no 5a)i% rule. a fu663 lo$i% %ontroller i) de)i$ned to 4or" 4it' t'e )tru%tured "no4led$e in t'e form of rule) and nearl3 e&er3t'in$ in t'e fu663 )3)tem remain) 'i$'l3 tran)parent and ea)il3 interpreta5le. if a t're)'old le&el i) rea%'ed./iii2 E%onom3. -'e 5a)i% %omponent) of artifi%ial neuron are )ummari6ed a)=. t'ere e8i)t) no formal frame4or" for t'e %'oi%e of &ariou) de)i$n parameter) and optimi6ation of t'e)e parameter) $enerall3 i) done 53 trial and error. 2. S'()T T*)+ L(A.term load fore%a)tin$ of 4eat'er )en)iti&e load) %on)i)t of four )ta$e).1 Neural Networ 7 Neural net4or" i) an artifi%ial repre)entation of t'e 'uman 5rain t'at trie) to )imulate t'e learnin$ pro%e)). It i) a %entral and inte$ral pro%e)) in t'e plannin$ and operation of ele%tri% utilitie). . Factors Affecting Accurate Load Forecast /i2 <eat'er Influen%e. 0oad fore%a)tin$ 'elp) an ele%tri% utilit3 to ma"e important de%i)ion) on pur%'a)in$ and $eneratin$ ele%tri% po4er.%onne%ted neural net4or" %on)i)tin$ of one main and four )upportin$ neural net4or". t'e trained %ontroller no lon$er %an 5e interpreted a) fu663 lo$i% %ontroller. @ <ei$'tin$ 1a%tor). It i) %arried out almo)t entirel3 on 'it and trial 5a)i).$. and t'i) )moot' tran)ition i) %'ara%teri6ed 53 mem5er)'ip fun%tion) t'at $i&e fu663 )et) fle8i5ilit3 in modelin$ %ommonl3 u)ed lin$ui)ti% e8pre))ion). 7 fu663 )et e8pre))e) t'e de$ree to 4'i%' an element 5elon$) to a )et.2 Artificial Neuron Neuron i) t'e 5a)i% 5uildin$ 5lo%" of an artifi%ial neural net4or".1 Short Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networ 2. -'e 7NN te%'ni9ue) 'a&e 5een applied to %orrelate t'e 4eat'er information and t'e load &ariation) to fore%a)t t'e dail3 pea" load and 'ourl3 load. of eit'er "eepin$ neural net4or") and fu663 lo$i% a) )eparate entitie) /%o. 2. neuro. :en%e t'e %'ara%teri)ti% fun%tion of a . F()*-AST. -'i) ne4 approa%' %om5ine) t'e 4ell e)ta5li)'ed ad&anta$e) of 5ot' t'e met'od) and a&oid) t'e dra45a%") of 5ot'. 2.propa$ated Calue @ 0earnin$ 1un%tion. Neit'er it i) po))i5le to e8tra%t )tru%tural information from t'e trained neural net4or" nor %an 4e inte$rate )pe%ial information into t'e neural net4or" in order to )implif3 t'e learnin$ pro%edure. /ii2 -ime fa%tor). (n t'e ot'er 'and.1. @ Summation 1un%tion.2 ANN Techni!ue for Short Term Load Forecasting -'e artifi%ial neural net4or" /7NN2 te%'ni9ue to )'ort. i) a )et 4it'out a %ri)p 5oundar3.fu663 approa%'e). Kno4led$e i) a%9uired 53 t'e net4or" from it) en&ironment t'rou$' a learnin$ pro%e)).

> 1u663 rule S'ort term 1i$. If F i) a %olle%tion of o5+e%t) denoted $enerall3 53 8. 4'i%' denote) t'e de$ree of mem5er)'ip of an element in a $i&en )et.2 Fu%%y inference Systems 0F.I 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot -'e)e fi&e )tep).$. D8 i) 7E i) %alled Dante%edentE or Dpremi)eE. or fu663 %onditional )tatement2 i) e8pre))ed a) follo4= I1 8 i) 7 -:EN 3 i) B 4'ere 7 and B lin$ui)ti% &alue) defined 53 fu663 )et). t'en a fu663 )et 7 in F i) defined a) a )et of ordered pair) <'ere G7/82 i) %alled t'e mem5er)'ip fun%tion /H12 for t'e fu663 )et 7.S1 -'e fu663 inferen%e )3)tem i) a popular %omputin$ frame4or" 5a)ed on t'e %on%ept of fu663 )et t'eor3. . fu663 impli%ation.4. )upplemented 53 t'e re)olution of %onfli%t) and in%orporation of e8pert opinion. and fu663 rea)onin$.t'en rule). -'e H1 map) ea%' element of F to a mem5er)'ip $rade 5et4een 0 and >. 2.t'en rule /fu663 rule. %on)titute t'e %on)tru%tion of t'e fu663 rule 5a)e for trape6oidal mem5er)'ip fun%tion. 1u663 rule me%'ani)m 1i$. fu663 if. 1i$. 4'ile D3 i) BE i) %alled t'e D%on)e9uen%eE or D%on%lu)ion.4.4.fu663 )et i) allo4ed to 'a&e &alue) 5et4een 0 and >. 1u663 I1 -:EN *ule) 7 fu663 if.

K 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot 1i$.7 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion oAp plot .4.4 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot 1i$.4.J 1u663 mem5er)'ip fun%tion input plot 1i$.4.1i$.4.

tran)paren%3 and u)e of a priori "no4led$e in fu663 )3)tem). )*SULT ANAL4S. a) a nota5le %ate$or3 of N1 model). in rainin$ )ea)on load i) re9uired more. S. Ha'ara)'tra Cid3ut Para)aran Ni$am /HCN2.fu663 )3)tem.> -'e a5o&e fi$ i) )'o4in$ t'e re)pon)e of fore%a)tin$ for different )e))ion. )*SULT ANAL4S.S -'e di))ertation 4or" 'a) 5een fo%u)ed on t'e preliminar3 in&e)ti$ation of fea)i5ilit3 and performan%e of fu663 lo$i% model and artifi%ial neural net4or" model to %arr3 out )'ort term load fore%a)tin$ on 'ourl3 5a)i) and pea" load demand predi%tion for 4ee"da3) and 4ee"end da3).+ULAT.fu663 /N12 model i) a fu663 )3)tem dra4n in a neural net4or" )tru%ture. 4ind )peed.S 3.+ULAT. 3. 1i$. . %om5inin$ t'e learnin$. 'umidit3.(N AN. de%ompo)e) an a priori un"no4n $lo5al nonlinear )3)tem into a )erie) of lo%al linear model) and t'en trie) to %arr3 out t'e )impler ta)" of identif3in$ parameter) of linear )u5. S.2 Neuro3Fu%%y +odels 7 neuro.K.(N AN.2. 7 lo%al linear neuro. parallel pro%e))in$ and $enerali6ation %apa5ilitie) of neural net4or") and lo$i%alit3. and 4eat'er data in term) of temperature. -'e fore%a)ted load i) %ompared 4it' t'e a%tual load and a&era$e per%enta$e error i) %al%ulated. i) %olle%ted from.model). *eal time data t'at in%lude) 'i)tori%al 'ourl3 load demand o&er a 4ee".

-ran)for med real load -ran)for med )%aled load -ime/Da32 1i$.J -ime/Da32 3.K.CONCLUSION 3. -'e a5o&e fi$ure )'o4 t'e load fore%a)tin$ of *eal load &) )%aled load -ime/Hont'2 1i$.CONCLUSION .K.4 -'e a5o&e fi$ure i) )'o4 t'e Surfa%e rule of fore%a)tin$ Defle%ted *eal load fore%a)tin$ 1i$.K.I -'e a5o&e fi$. i) )'o4in$ t'e load fore%a)tin$ of different time 1i$.K.

>4>IO>4 >. Expert Syst. Energy Policy 2515. S. Bian%oa. (. ES L M. S. Sa5eri. Bot' lo%al and $lo5al e)timation of rule %on)e9uent parameter) of t'e S0N1 model 4ere %on)idered RE re)ult) in 'i$'er modelin$ performan%e. L> M. !anag. LKM. 0>0. C. L>4M N. <ad'4ani.. 5#. R 2*>00 . %on)idera5l3 impro&ed t'e modelin$ performan%e of t'e S0N1 net4or"..Nie5er$.. J. Canada. 2557. Sustain. :.7>I .. Edi$era. *ot'e. i))ue > . K'a"e)tani. R */i2/ . Energy Policy 2557. HI. 0minR Bma8* eSCmin . N. L>JM Qu'aim3I)mailaand *o)naliniHan)or5. G.. term natural $a) demand e)timation= Un%ertain and %omple8 en&ironment)E. Appl. 7ra5. Ele%tri%it3 %on)umption fore%a)tin$ in Ital3 u)in$ linear re$re))ion model). 0iu. JJK7OJJ7!. "ol. D:35rid and inte$rated approa%' to )'ort term load fore%a)tin$E. %es. C.$o& /a%%e))ed on J Nune NC ES 0>>2. 2557. S. 37.0K..K. LJM. L>>M.>K. C'en. 2515.term &ariation) of t'e ele%tri%it3 demand versus t'e temperature %'an$e)E. 0. D Predi%tion of ener$3 demand) u)in$ neural net4or" 4it' model identifi%ation 53 $lo5al optimi6ationE. Ener$3 Information 7dmini)tration /EI72. Pi%"l. $per..1* model to )tud3 )'ort. L7M.00I. 7*IH7 fore%a)tin$ of primar3 ener$3 demand 53 fuel in -ur"e3.H. 36. Nardinia.. 7.. I>!OI 7.0. 0. >J !O>JIK. &#. D3nami% )tru%tural anal3)i) and fore%a)tin$ of re)idential ele%tri%it3 %on)umption... 7)ad6ade'.. D 7 %olla5orati&e fu663.. Appl. Eur.HSPER . <a"ui. 5a)ed input )ele%tion al$orit'm and S0N1 model. He3er.NC 7&aila5le online= 'ttp=AA444. 35.S. *. D7 fle8i5le fu663 re$re))ion al$orit'm for fore%a)tin$ oil %on)umption e)timationE..-'i) paper 'a) propo)ed a )op'i)ti%ated )'ort. !0 O!07. Nadimia. 7.. <ad'4ani. 2558. 7. -. 3+. DEner$3 model) for demand fore%a)tin$= 7 re&ie4E. 9. Int.* 2511. 37. E8tra%tion of t'e trend and %3%li% %omponent) of t'e demand )erie) and effe%ti&e input )ele%tion 53 t'e HI te%'ni9ue. A99endi: 0ma8RBma8 *eSCma8 .P. 7. Energy %ev. >70>O>708. In). 7"ar5. 76ade'. :arri). 8>OI>>. *. Energy Policy 2556. Expert Syst. L8M.>0>KA+. &ol. :a'n. and it 4a) demon)trated t'at t'e $lo5al e)timation te%'ni9ue RE FE FE RE RE L>M. Nul3 0>>. G'an5ari. >7KJO>77 . doi=>0.. Samuel. Eng. 7> 7.neural approa%' for lon$. *. Be'fard. 0>>. Su$ant'i. 2511. D 7n adapti&e intelli$ent al$orit'm for fore%a)tin$lon$term$a)oline demand e)timation= -'e %a)e) of US7. 4I7O4JJ. o(put. Energy 2557. International S3mpo)ium on 1ore%a)tin$ O Pra$ue pro%eedin$). Sata"e... D7 '35rid -SK..term load fore%a)tin$ in -ai4anE.eia. pp. J. 76ade'. K. L>IM. S.term ener$3 demand fore%a)tin$ approa%' 5a)ed on t'e :P filter. 7. D Ele%tri% load fore%a)tin$ met'od)= -ool) for de%i)ion ma"in$E. 2? .B/"2ma8 R B/"2minR H7PERH7F/ . L>0M. %ene'. 34. Energy onvers. G'aderia. 7. LIM. Han%a. :. Forecast. L4M. S'a"ouri.. .. H. 2556.H. S. S. D1u663 0o$i% 7pproa%' for 1ore%a)tin$ :alf'ourl3 Hala3)ia Ele%tri%it3 0oad DemandE.%ie. Po"o3ama. &99. S. 76ade'. U. Napan. Ku4ait and IranE..>.5a)ed fu663 inferen%e )3)tem for )'ort. -. 74 7O74I7. D7n adapti&e net4or". 1. pp. IEEE -ran)a%tion) on Po4er S3)tem).

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