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Predicting Performance


Predicting Performance


December 2005

Predicting Performance


• Objectives and limitations performance predictions of future

• Types of future performance predictions • Data requirements performance for predicting future

• Transitioning from history to prediction • Case studies


December 2005

Predicting Performance 3 Objectives of Future Performance Predictions • Predict reservoir behavior • Estimate performance in new reservoirs • Optimize operating conditions • Maximize economic gain NExT December 2005 .

NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 4 Limitations of Future Performance Predictions • The major limitation of future performance predictions is the accuracy of the reservoir model. • A good history match does not guarantee an accurate and representative performance prediction.

predicted water breakthrough times may not match the actual breakthrough times once the waterflood is implemented. pressure maintenance or enhanced recovery – Converting an old. The new displacement process was not part of the original history match and. NExT December 2005 . actual breakthrough occurs much sooner than predicted. this problem arises because of a dramatic change in the displacement mechanism occurring in the reservoir. In waterflooding studies.Predicting Performance 5 Limitations of Future Performance Predictions • This might occur if future performance predictions represent operating scenarios that are dramatically different from the historical operation of the field. may not yield correct results. Examples include – Converting a depletion drive reservoir to waterflooding. therefore. depleted reservoir to gas storage In some cases. pressure maintenance or enhanced recovery process. for example. This problem can be fixed only by further history matching that includes the production and pressure performance of the field during the waterflooding. In many cases.

Predicting Performance 6 Types of Future Performance Predictions • Common uses for future performance predictions – Depletion studies – Secondary or enhanced recovery studies – Timing of facilities installation – Timing of well workovers – Timing of well conversions – Infill drilling studies NExT December 2005 .

relative permeability studies) • Parametric studies • Investigation of vertical (cross-sectional models) • Pilot projects flow effects NExT December 2005 . smallscale core studies.Predicting Performance 7 Other Applications of Performance Predictions • Laboratory studies (corefloods.

production facility and field operating constraints • Economic limits • Workover plan for existing wells • Completion plan for new wells NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 8 Data Requirements for Predicting Future Performance • Number and timing of new wells • New well data • Well.

new well locations can be selected automatically by simulator NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 9 Number and Timing of New Wells Based On • Availability of drilling rigs • Time required to drill a well • Budget considerations • In some cases.

WC. NExT December 2005 . which relates the well flowing bottomhole pressure to the pressure of the grid block. His publications have focused on the calculation of the well constant. denoted WC. (related to PI of well) Peaceman has published a series of papers on representation of wells in reservoir simulation.Predicting Performance 10 New Well Data • Well location in the simulation grid • Type of well (producer or injector) • Well constant.

• Another possibility is to perform a sensitivity analysis using a range of expected skin factors. • Skin factor for new wells can be estimated using (1) knowledge of skin factors resulting from drilling and completion practices in the field of interest.Predicting Performance 11 New Well Data • Skin factor must also be considered. Incorrect assumptions about skin factors for new wells could lead to unrealistic forecasts. NExT December 2005 . or (2) measured skin factors in existing wells (possibly before and after cleanup or stimulation treatments).

WOR) and liquid rates. NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 12 Well (Existing and New) and Facilities Constraint Data • Minimum and maximum operating pressures at – Compression facilities – Separators – Liquid processing facilities • Maximum fluid cuts (GOR. production facilities and/or the entire field operation. which may limit – Lifting facilities at wells – Gathering and processing facilities • All constraints can apply to wells.

for individual wells or the entire field. • Economic limits are often minimum production rates for oil and gas. • Producing gas-oil ratios and water-oil ratios can also be used. NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 13 Economic Limits • Economic limits determine the operating life of a project or well in a future performance prediction.

NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 14 Economic Limits • Data requirements for determining economic limits – Estimate of future pricing for oil and gas – Fixed operating costs – Monthly operating costs for wells – Lifting costs – Routine maintenance costs – Workover/repair costs for wells – Taxes and regulatory factors – Operating cost and oil and gas price escalations Data requirements are usually translated into a fixed cost per well per unit time. The per well cost can then be converted to a minimum economic oil or gas production rate.

allow an economics model to determine when a project is uneconomic. • Limit use of economic limits in reservoir simulation. – Use overall production stream for entire project.Predicting Performance 15 Economic Limits • Alternative approach . NExT December 2005 . – Input fixed and per well operating cost into economics model.

Predicting Performance 16 Workover/Completion Plan For Wells • Develop a plan for workovers of existing wells – Skin damage removal – Hydraulic fracturing – Mechanical repairs • Develop a plan for completion of new wells – Stimulation – Mechanical configuration NExT December 2005 .

more sophisticated performance predictions usually involve operational changes that take place some time in the future. This might be due to the time required to • Drill new wells. the well and field production rates and fluid cuts (overall production performance) should be similar to recent past history. Other. • Unless there is an immediate change in the operating conditions of a field after history matching. • Upgrade existing production and/or injection facilities. The base case might also be called a "do nothing" case. NExT December 2005 . The first performance prediction is usually a base case. • Install new production and/or injection facilities. since well and field operations are not changed for this forecast. Rarely do operational changes take place immediately after the end of history matching.Predicting Performance 17 Transitioning From History to Predictions • Transitioning from history matching to performance predictions means wells are no longer controlled by known operating conditions. but rather by an estimated future operating scenario.

NExT December 2005 . • Also a function of how future operating conditions are specified. • If a smooth transition is not seen. then it might be necessary to further refine the history match.Predicting Performance 18 Smooth Transitions From History to Predictions • The quality or smoothness of the transition is dependent on the quality of the history match.

use the average well rate or pressure from the last several days. then the wells should be pressure constrained at the start of performance predictions. – If the wells were producing at capacity (pressure constrained) at the end of history.Predicting Performance 19 • Methods for a smooth transition from history matching to future performance: – If wells were rate constrained at the end of history. then begin forecasting using the same rate constraints on wells. NExT December 2005 . – As an alternative. Choosing a method for a smooth transition from history matching to future performance will also depend on whether the field is currently constrained by allowables or is operating at capacity. weeks or months for future predictions.

Predicting Performance 20 Summary of Production Constraints For Forecast Cases Parameter Minimum well flowing bottomhole pressure (FBHP) Minimum well oil rate Maximum completion water-oil ratio (WOR) Minimum field oil production rate Value 300 psia 50 STB/D 6 STB/STB 500 STB/D NExT December 2005 .

Predicting Performance 21 Well Locations for Case Fore2a-New Wells and Recompletions 7 6 8 9 10 3 5 4 Block VI Block V C OW 2 1 C OW 44 existing production wells proposed production wells 46 wells with proposed re-completions 45 12 90 0 Legend C OW proposed water injection wells 47 true fault traces 3 48 fault traces in simulation model NExT December 2005 .

Qw (MSTB/D ) 30 150 20 100 10 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0 2010 Tim e.Predicting Performance 22 Field Production Rates for Base (Fore1b) and New Wells and Recompletion (Fore2a) Forecast Cases FORE Field Prod Rates 60 Obs Qo Obs Qw Obs Qg 300 his t33k:Field OIL Production Rate his t33k:Field W AT Produc tion Rate his t33k:Field GAS Production Rate fore2a:Field OIL Produc tion Rate fore2a:Field W AT Production Rate 250 fore2a:Field GAS Produc tion Rate fore1b:Field OIL Produc tion Rate fore1b:Field W AT Production Rate fore1b:Field GAS Produc tion Rate 200 50 40 Qo. years NExT Qg (MMC F/D ) December 2005 .

Cum W ater (M M STB) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Obs Cum Oil Obs Cum Water Obs Cum Gas Hist33k:Field Oil Cum Hist33k:Field Water Hist33k:Field Gas Fore2a:Field Oil Cum Fore2a:Field Water Fore2a:Field Gas Fore1b:Field Oil Cum Fore1b:Field Water Fore1b:Field Gas Cum 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Time. years NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 23 New Wells and Recompletions Increase Recoveries Cum Oil.

psia 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1990 1995 2000 Time.Predicting Performance 24 New Wells and Recompletions Lower Reservoir Pressure 6000 5000 Pressure. years 2005 2010 Obs C3C4 MidPerf SI Obs C4 MidPerf SI Obs C5 MidPerf SI Obs C3C4 NoPerf Datum SI Obs C4 NoPerf Datum SI Obs C5 NoPerf Datum SI hist33k: Field Average Pressure fora2a: Field Average Presssure fore1b: Field Average Pressure NExT December 2005 .

0 Scale) for Case Hist33k.2 .Predicting Performance 25 Water Saturation Maps (0.1. Fore1b and Fore2a for Layer 1 NExT December 2005 .

FORE1b and FORE2a for Layer 1 NExT December 2005 .Predicting Performance 26 Movable Oil Maps for Cases HIST33k.

7 NExT December 2005 .3 Base (Fore1b) New Wells and Recompletions (Fore2a) 250 167 227 39.Predicting Performance 27 Summary of Forecast Simulation Cases Summary of Forecast Simulation Cases Case Name Ultimate Ultimate Ultimate Ultimate Oil Water Gas Oil Production Production Production Recovery (% of OOIP) (MMSTB) (MMSTB) (Bscf) 216 129 179 34.

• Oil recovery can be increased by 34 million STB (5.Predicting Performance 28 Conclusions • There are several fault blocks in the VLE-196 field with significant volumes of bypassed oil.4% of the OOIP) by recompleting 5 existing wells and drilling 8 new wells NExT December 2005 .

• This should include the B/C-2/C-3 reservoirs. NExT December 2005 . areas across the VLE-400 fault to the west and block VI to the north.Predicting Performance 29 Recommendations • Develop and calibrate an expanded model of the VLE-196 C-4/C-5 reservoirs. to better model communication with other reservoirs.