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Citizens United Political Victory Fund

From: Kellyanne Conway, the polling company, inc. Date: April 14, 2014 Re: Analysis & Findings from Statewide 2016 GOP Primary Survey in Arizona ____________________________________________________________________ Arizona Senator John McCain confronts a very challenging primary landscape should he decide to run for a sixth term in 2016. Although his job approval-disapproval rating among Republicans statewide is evenly split, and his image is slightly underwater (47.7% favorable, 51.4% unfavorable), it is the fact that Republican Primary voters in Arizona are over twice as likely to elect “a new person” (64.2%) than they are to re-elect McCain (29.3%) that spells trouble.

In 2016, Senator John McCain may run for re-election to his sixth term in office. Do you think that Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term or is it time to give a new person the chance to do the job? 64.2%

If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or would you vote for a different Republican?

60.7%

29.3%

30.5%

6.5%

8.8%

TOTAL RE-ELECT MCCAIN (NET) TOTAL ELECT NEW PERSON (NET) DO NOT KNOW

TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN (NET) TOTAL VOTE DIFFERENT REPUBLICAN (NET) DO NOT KNOW

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Subgroups of men and women both back “a new person” or a “different Republican” over Senator McCain. This is not simply “trouble with the Tea Party” or “far-right angst.” Senator McCain struggles at various levels with Republicans across the ideological spectrum, as shown in the Appendix (Tea Party Republicans, Strong, Republicans, Not-so-strong Republicans and Independents).

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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Senator McCain also loses to every Republican tested in head-to-head primary balloting. In separate questions, Arizona Republicans prefer both current Governor Jan Brewer (47.7%-29.0%) and Fifth District Representative Matt Salmon (48.2%-30.3%) by double-digit margins. Sixth U.S. District Representative David Schweikert also bests McCain on the Primary ballot (40.1%-33.9%), albeit by a narrower spread.

If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or Jan Brewer?

If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or Matt Salmon?

47.7%

48.2%

29.0% 23.3%

30.3% 21.5%

TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN (NET) TOTAL VOTE BREWER (NET) DO NOT KNOW

TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN (NET) TOTAL VOTE SALMON (NET) DO NOT KNOW

If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or David Schweikert? 40.1% 33.9% 26.0%

TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN (NET) TOTAL VOTE SCHWEIKERT (NET) DO NOT KNOW
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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“Path to Citizenship” Not Popular with GOP Primary Voters Republican Primary voters signaled their strong resistance to the immigration bill that was championed by Senator McCain and passed by the U.S. Senate last year. The proposal was rejected by more than a two-to-one margin: 29.8% support, 64.0% oppose. The latter includes 35.7% who STRONGLY oppose allowing a “path to citizenship for illegal immigrants present in the United States.” McCain’s support for amnesty seems out-of-line with Republican primary voters and may hurt his 2016 reelection chances.
Do you support or oppose the immigration bill passed by the U.S. Senate in 2013 that would allow a QUOTE path to citizenship ENDQUOTE for illegal immigrants present in the United States? 64.0%

29.8%

6.2%

TOTAL SUPPORT (NET) TOTAL OPPOSE (NET) DO NOT KNOW

Final Note Heading into 2016, Senator McCain will have the normal trappings of a Senator who has been in the United States Senate for 30 years, e.g., solid funding and the power of incumbency and in his case, the unique service to our nation of a war veteran. Still, to fellow Republicans in his own state, that incumbency seems to cut both ways, and currently, appears to be a liability. They make clear their appetite for “someone else” and a “different Republican,” and not just in principle. GOP primary voters actually prefer three very different Republicans to McCain on the ballot. The caution for these potential opponents is that between 21.5% and 26.0% of Primary voters “do not know” whom they would support on these very early 2016 ballot tests. Challengers to Senator McCain will be introducing themselves as Senate prospects, while Senator McCain will be explaining his votes to a Republican primary electorate sometimes at odds with his views.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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Methodology Statement On behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund, the polling company, inc. (Kellyanne Conway) surveyed 600 likely 2016 Republican primary voters in Arizona from April 1112, 2014. The margin of error for this survey is ± 4.1% at the 95% confidence level. This survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording technology, and the data were not weighted.

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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APPENDIX
In 2016, Senator John McCain may run for re-election to his sixth term in office. Do you think that Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term or is it time to give a new person the chance to do the job? TOTAL RE-ELECT TOTAL NEW DO NOT MCCAIN (NET) PERSON (NET) KNOW ALL 29.3% 64.2% 6.5% MEN WOMEN CD-1 CD-2 CD-3 CD-4 CD-5 CD-6 CD-7 CD-8 CD-9 Strong GOP Tea Party GOP Not-SoStrong GOP Independent 28.4% 30.3% 29.3% 26.7% 36.4% 27.9% 25.6% 36.3% 52.2% 27.4% 26.9% 47.5% 9.9% 45.6% 30.2% 67.7% 60.7% 64.2% 73.6% 63.4% 57.6% 69.6% 63.7% 43.5% 71.2% 67.2% 44.1% 85.9% 50.0% 60.3% 4.0% 9.0% 5.7% 10.0% 6.1% 2.5% 10.6% 8.1% 4.3% 1.4% 6.0% 8.4% 4.1% 4.4% 9.6%

If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or would you vote for a different Republican? TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN TOTAL DIFFERENT DO NOT (NET) REP. (NET) KNOW ALL 30.5% 60.7% 8.8% MEN WOMEN CD-1 CD-2 CD-3 CD-4 CD-5 CD-6 CD-7 CD-8 CD-9 28.0% 33.0% 18.8% 26.7% 39.4% 29.1% 25.7% 43.4% 47.8% 27.4% 26.9% 66.6% 54.7% 71.7% 65.0% 45.5% 64.5% 63.7% 63.7% 48.5% 65.8% 63.2% 5.3% 12.3% 9.4% 8.3% 15.2% 6.3% 10.6% 8.1% 8.7% 6.8% 9.0%

Strong GOP 48.5% 43.1% 8.4% Tea Party 10.8% 83.8% 5.4% GOP Not-So48.5% 39.7% 11.8% Strong GOP Independent 30.2% 52.0% 17.8% If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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ALL MEN WOMEN CD-1 CD-2 CD-3 CD-4 CD-5 CD-6 CD-7 CD-8 CD-9 Strong GOP Tea Party GOP Not-SoStrong GOP Independent

John McCain or would you vote for Jan Brewer? TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN TOTAL VOTE (NET) BREWER (NET) 29.0% 47.7% 29.4% 28.7% 18.9% 28.4% 27.3% 20.2% 26.5% 36.4% 34.7% 24.6% 44.8% 39.6% 10.8% 52.9% 39.8% 49.0% 46.4% 66.1% 46.6% 42.5% 57.0% 45.2% 39.4% 43.4% 56.2% 34.3% 39.1% 64.7% 28.0% 38.4%

DO NOT KNOW 23.3% 21.7% 25.0% 15.1% 25.0% 30.3% 22.8% 28.3% 24.2% 21.7% 18.2% 20.9% 21.3% 24.5% 19.1% 21.9%

If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or would you vote for Matt Salmon? TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN TOTAL VOTE DO NOT (NET) SALMON (NET) KNOW ALL 30.3% 48.2% 21.5% MEN WOMEN CD-1 CD-2 CD-3 CD-4 CD-5 CD-6 CD-7 CD-8 CD-9 Strong GOP Tea Party GOP Not So Strong GOP Independent 29.3% 31.3% 28.3% 31.7% 33.3% 34.2% 20.3% 35.4% 52.2% 28.8% 28.4% 45.5% 12.0% 42.6% 41.4% 54.4% 42.0% 47.2% 35.0% 36.4% 41.8% 71.6% 42.4% 34.7% 42.5% 28.8% 35.7% 66.9% 30.9% 35.6% 16.3% 26.7% 24.5% 33.3% 30.3% 24.1% 8.0% 22.2% 13.0% 28.8% 17.9% 18.8% 21.2% 26.5% 23.3%

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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If the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were tomorrow, would you vote for John McCain or would you vote for David Schweikert? TOTAL VOTE MCCAIN TOTAL VOTE DO NOT (NET) SCHWEIKERT KNOW (NET) ALL 33.9% 40.1% 26.0% MEN WOMEN CD-1 CD-2 CD-3 CD-4 CD-5 CD-6 CD-7 CD-8 CD-9 Strong GOP Tea Party GOP Not So Strong GOP Independent 33.7% 34.0% 37.8% 33.3% 30.3% 30.4% 32.8% 36.4% 47.8% 30.1% 33.3% 46.4% 14.9% 52.9% 38.4% 47.4% 33.0% 39.6% 28.3% 30.4% 36.7% 41.6% 48.5% 30.4% 37.0% 52.2% 29.2% 57.3% 17.6% 31.5% 19.0% 33.0% 22.6% 38.3% 39.4% 32.9% 25.7% 15.2% 21.7% 32.9% 13.4% 20.3% 27.8% 29.4% 30.1%

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Citizens United Political Victory Fund Statewide IVR Survey of 600 GOP Primary LVs in Arizona – ANALYSIS April 2014

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