uen. (iet.) Wesley K. Claik anu Bi. Phillip A.
8 Apiil 2u14
iemoveu 1S Apiil 2u14)
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A joint invite fiom the 0kiainian National Secuiity Auvisoi anu Senioi membei of
theii Pailiament foi help in assessing theii situation was given to uen. (iet.) Wesley
K. Claik, (foimei NAT0 Commanuei), anu Bi. Phillip A. Kaibei, (foimei Stiategy
Auvisoi to Secietaiy of Befense Weinbeigei). With tiavel costs coveieu by the non-
piofit Potomac Founuation (an oiganization with a long histoiy of suppoiting East
Euiopean anu foimei Soviet Republic tiaining foi NAT0 membeiship), Claik anu
Kaibei tiaveleu to 0kiaine to unueitake a joint militaiily oiienteu, non-public
assessment, anu uo so on a non-paitisan basis.
Claik anu Kaibei paiticipateu in SS meeting with senioi officials, militaiy
commanueis anu vaiious politicians; with Kaibei visiting fiont line foimations on
the Noithein, Eastein anu Southein Fionts.
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0kiaine is facing seiious militaiy thieats on a Suu uegiee aic fiom the teiiitoiies of
Beloiussia, Russia, occupieu Ciimea, the Black Sea anu Tiansneistei. The 1,uuu mile
long fiont is thiee times the fiontiei 0kiaine's mouest Aimeu Foices aie uesigneu to
hanule. Noieovei, uecaue-long coiiuption has left theii Aiifoice ill equippeu,
vulneiable anu unieauy foi mouein aii combat. Russian occupation of Ciimea has
viitually uestioyeu 0kiaine's coastal uefense fiom the south. Thieats fiom
Tiansneistei as well as Belaius' hosting of Russian foices on its teiiitoiy fuithei
uiveit 0kiainian political attention anu uispeise bauly neeueu foices to the
Southwest anu Noithwest.
0vei the last week, while Claik anu Kaibei weie visiting, they weie able to witness
anu confiim that the 0kiainian Aimy was neaiing completion of the laigest
peacetime mobilization of any countiy in Westein oi Cential Euiope since the enu
of Woilu Wai II. As theii foices fall into position anu aie able to tactically piepaie
uefensive positions on the teiiain, theii ability to both slow uown a potential
invasion anu inflict seiious casualties on an aggiessoi will likewise have an
incieasing ueteiient value as well.
To maximize theii uefense potential, 0kiaine will neeu to acquiie auuitional off-the-
shelf aiiciaft, aii uefenses anu anti-aimoi systems fiom countiies with compatible
equipment - specifically NAT0 membeis who have common equipment such as Nig-
29, T-72 Tanks anu Nan Poitable Aii Befense anu Anti-Tank weapons.
Bowevei, the most impoitant assistance cuiiently neeueu to make the existing
0kiainian foice as uefensible as possible in the cuiient ciisis (between now anu the
elections of 2S Nay) is non-lethal equipment fiom the 0S. The most ciitical of this
non-lethal equipment is:
! B,-3/C06 G4.9 B3,43 capable of stopping snipei iounus - only 1 in 1uu
tioops in the 0kiainian Aimy aie equippeu with any type of Bouy Aimoi,
baseu on eviuence that Russian snipeis anu agents aie being tolu to focus on
shooting officeis (similai to the types of long-iange assassination eviuenceu
uuiing Naiuan by Russian tiaineu snipeis). What little 0kiainian bouy aimoi
available, is only uesigneu foi smallei calibei lowei velocity piojectiles. uiven
that Russian tioops aie univeisally equippeu with high-quality bouy aimoi,
it is both militaiily untenable anu political iiuiculous to ueny symmetiical
piotection to the victim of aggiession.
! "/:>1 N/7/46 E-5/C-7 aie a ciitical neeu in the 0kiainian Aimy. Now that
they aie in position, theii key facilities, biiuges anu fiont lines aie unuei
continuing thieat of infiltiation. Theie is neithei the time noi uo they have
the buuget to quickly outfit ciitical units with the piopei Night vision
Bevices. Again, this is a technology ioutinely available to the Russian Aimy,
anu if it is piovocative, then that piovocation neeus to be answeieu with
! H4,,O6/C01/467 $PO/2,-61, given the extiaoiuinaiily bioau fiont that the
0kiainian Aimy is opeiating on, coveiing wiue aieas with no ieseive anu no
aii suppoit to fill in the gaps, along with the high piospect that theii militaiy
analog communications aie compiomiseu anu civilian telecom will likely be
taken uown in the initial houis of conflict, they neeu immeuiate ueliveiy of
Satellite Rauios. Longei-teim, it is unconscionable that the seven 0kiainian
Biigaues that seiveu with uistinction alongsiue 0S foices in Iiaq anu
Afghanistan (anu theii 9S
Aii Nobile Biigaue hau alieauy been ieceiveu on
an expeiimental basis the Baiiis uistiibuteu uigital secuie communications)
shoulu not be continueu to be moueinizeu as a ioutine effoit to all 0kiainian
Biigaues that seiveu with the 0S.
! B5/01/46 LO-8 -- 0kiaine's weak Aii Foice neeus to be flying as much as
possible - to uetect intiuueis, to covei the giounu foices in theii foiwaiu
ueployment anu to pioviue theii pilots with noimal levels of tiaining. The 0S
ban on Aviation Fuel as a "Foice Nultipliei" is blatantly iiuiculous at a time
that Russian aiiciaft anu 0Av aie ioutinely flying the 0kiainian boiuei
within minutes of theii taigets. Again, to iesponu to aggiessive piovocation
is not "piovocative" - inueeu, unansweieu it incentives continueu
Inuepenuent of Ameiican high-level policy -- implementation of 0S non-lethal
militaiy aiu is seiiously flaweu anu neeus immeuiate coiiection:
1). A confusing "Foice Nultipliei" ciiteiia applying a ban on suppoit equipment that
is not lethal (neithei a weapon noi ammunition) neeus to be uioppeu immeuiately.
This "Foice Nultipliei" ciiteiion is as illogical anu inconsistent as its ban is haimful
to getting some of the most valuable technology anu suppoit equipment that the
0kiainian militaiy neeus most.
The "Foice Nultipliei" ciiteiia neeus to be ieplaceu with a cleai anu unambiguous
uistinction: if Lethal Weapons anu Ammunition stay banneu, eveiything "non-
Lethal" shoulu be alloweu - with piioiity on Bouy Aimoi, Night vision,
Communications anu Aviation Fuel.
2). Beliveiy of 0S non-lethal militaiy aiu is haimeu by a buieauciacy that is not
opeiating with a sense of uigency oi implementing leaueiship. It must be ieplaceu
with an attituue that puts a piioiity on helping 0kiaine aheau of a naiiow
pieoccupation with auministiative pioceuuie anu institutional buugets.
The Auministiation neeus to immeuiately appoint a high-level official with militaiy
expeiience anu a "get it uone" attituue - aimeu with Piesiuential Authoiity to cut
acioss the buieauciacy anu insuie piioiitization anu timely ueliveiy of all non-lethal
militaiy assistance it is possible foi the 0S to pioviue to 0kiaine.
S). The cuiient 0kiainian leaueiship has limiteu piofessional militaiy anu national
secuiity knowleuge - they have an inteiim coalition goveinment whose leaueis
have viitually no piofessional expeiience, anu the iapiu tuinovei in militaiy leaueis
has cieateu a majoi pioblem in theii senioi staff as well. They know they have this
pioblem, anu that was one of the ieasons that they iequesteu the assistance of Claik
As the ciisis ueepens, 0kiaine neeus seasoneu piofessional Ameiican militaiy anu
national secuiity auvice to assist them in making piuuent anu wise uecisions - if this
cannot be pioviueu by active militaiy anu civilian piofessionals - plans shoulu be
maue to biing in ietiieu senioi people to help. If the Russians can publicly announce
that the fugitive 0kiainian pievious Piesiuent is an 0fficial Auvisoi to Putin, it can
haiuly be piovocative to pioviue low-ley non-unifoimeu auvice anu piofessional
situation awaieness tiaining.
N0TE: This inteiim iepoit is focuseu on fixing Non-Lethal Aiu. We will offei
subsequent thoughts on the neeu to get ieauy foi a Lethal Aiu contingency.
APPENBIX: Photos fiom the Fiont
(taken uuiing Bi. Kaibei's visiting tioops with his comments auueu 1S Apiil)
Ukraine military helicopters deadlined due to limited availability of aviation fuel
and lack of spare parts.
Only 1 in 100 Ukrainian soldiers have armored vests. Despite concern that
Russian snipers are targeting the officers, many of them are giving their personal
armored vests to female soldiers. Dr. Karber at the front line 300 yards from
Russian positions with female trooper wearing one of the rare armored vests.
Ukrainian troops guarding bridge on the Northern Front. Near here Russian
infiltrators were found to be scouting positions and bridges at night. Lack of Night
Vision Devices is a major vulnerability for troops guarding forward positions.
As of last week, US promised Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) had not reached the
Ukrainian troops at the Front. A territorial Army not designed for deployment far
from their home bases, they depend on local farmers supplying food in pony
carts and civilian convoys from the cities dropping off boxes of groceries to the
troops in the field.
As of last week, US promised Sleeping Bags had not arrived in Ukraine. Troops
in the rain and mud at the front build fires to keep themselves warm and dry their
wet blankets. But the fires give away their positions to Russian snipers and
As of last week, US promised Diesel Fuel and not arrived at the front. Limited
Ukrainian stocks of Diesel Fuel limit the amount of field training and
maneuverability of the armored and mechanized forces — such as this tank
guarding the Eastern approaches to Kiev.
Ukrainian forces served in support of US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, including
elements of seven Brigades — 24th, 30th, 72nd, and 93rd Mechanized Brigades
and the 20th, 25th and 95th Airmobile Brigades. Last year the US supplied the
95th Brigade with US command and digital communication equipment and the
Ukrainians were hoping to outfit the other units that had served with the US.
However, under current “Force Multiplier” criteria, this type non-lethal aid would
now be prohibited – in essence punishing the victim.
Ukrainian troops holding the causeway to Crimea are dug in, but in these
exposed positions they are very vulnerable to Russian snipers and artillery fire
without Armored Vests.
The Ukrainian Air Force is massively outnumbered and forward troops are
highly vulnerability to air strikes due to limited supply of Air Defense missiles.
The 0kiainian Aimy is neaiing completion of the laigest peacetime mobilization anu
ciisis ueployment of any countiy in Westein oi Cential Euiope since the enu of
Woilu Wai II. Commanueis at the Fiont believe they can now holu foi up to two
weeks against a ueteimineu Russian attack. Bowevei, uue to slow ueliveiy anu
0S "Foice Nultipliei" iestiictions on Non-lethal Aiu theii uefenses aie not as stiong
as they coulu be anu pooi implementation of Ameiican assistance is thus seiving as
a "Foice Bivisoi" on 0kiainian uefense potential.