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Equity Research: Fundamental and Technical analysis and its impact on stock prices
FOR
BY CHAUDHARI KAILAS NANABHAU MBA-II 2006-2008 UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF PROF. MAHESH HALALE
SUBMITED TO UNIVERSITY OF PUNE IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (MBA)
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Its a great privilege that I have done my project in such a well-organized and diversified organization. I am great full to all those who helped and supported me in completing the project. First of all I would sincerely like to thank Mr. Rakesh P. Sonawane (Branch Manager, Nasik), for his valuable guidance and kind co-operation during the project. I am highly grateful to Mr. Nayan Bhandari (Business Associates of Reliance money) for the help provided by them in various forms. I am also thankful to our director Dr. Sharad Joshi and my project guide Prof. Mahesh Halale for helping me in completing the project. Last but not least, I am also thankful to all college staff and my friends for helping me directly or indirectly in my project.
This is to certify that Mr. Kailas N. Chaudhari is a bonafide student of our institute. He has successfully carried out his summer project Equity Research : Fundamental and Technical analysis and its impact on stock prices titled at Reliance Money. This is the original study of Mr. Kailas N. Chaudhari and important sources of data used by him have been acknowledged in his report .
The report is submitted in partial fulfillment of two years full time course of Masters in Business Administration 2006-2008 as per rules.
CONTENT
Sr.No.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Topic
Executive Summery Company Profile Objective of Project Research Methodology Data Presentation Data Analysis & Interpretation Finding Suggestion And Conclusion Limitation Bibliography
Page No.
1-3 4-5 6-6 7-7 8-26 27-59 60-61 62-64 65-65 66-66
INTRODUCTION
COMPANY PROFILE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
DATA PRESENTATION
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FINDINGS
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LIMITATION OF STUDY
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EQUITY ANALYSIS is the systematic study of the performance of companies in stock market with help of fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Equity analysis consists of fundamental analysis & technical analysis. While decision in investment of shares should be base on actual movement of shares price measured more in money & percentage term & nothing else.
In equity analysis, calculations are based on FACTS & not on HOPE. The subject of equity analysis, i.e. the to attempt to determine future share price movement with the help of RATIO ANALYSIS, STUDY OF GRAPH. Equity analysis does not discuss how to buy & sell shares, but does discuss the methods, which enables the investor to arriving at buying & selling decision.
The Technical Approach to investment is essentially a reflection of the idea that prices moves in a trend that are determined by the changing attitude of investors toward a variety of economic, monetary, political and psychological forces. The art of technical analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves the trend has reversed.
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With demutualization, the trading rights and ownership rights have been de linked effectively addressing concerns regarding perceived and real conflicts of interest. The Exchange is professionally managed under the overall direction of the Board of Directors. The Board comprises eminent professionals. Representatives of Trading Members and the Managing Director of the Exchange. The Board is inclusive and is designed to benefit from the participation of market intermediaries. The Exchange has a nation-wide reach with a presence in 417 cities and towns of India. The systems and processes of the Exchange are designed to safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in operations. During the year 2004-2005, the trading volumes on the Exchange showed robust growth. The Exchange provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity, debt instruments and derivatives. The BSE On Line Trading System (BOLT) is a proprietary system of the Exchange and is BS 7799-2-2002 certified. The surveillance and clearing and settlement functions of the Exchange are ISO 9001:2000 certified.
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Reliance Money is a subsidiary company of Reliance Capital; one of India's leading and fastest growing private sector financial services company, ranking among the top 3 private sector financial services and banking companies, in terms of net worth. Reliance Capital is a part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group.
Reliance Money is a comprehensive electronic transaction platform offering a wide range of asset classes. Its endeavor is to change the way India transacts in financial markets and avails financial services. Reliance Money is a single window, enabling you to access, amongst others in Equities, Equity & Commodities Derivatives, Mutual Funds, IPO s, Life & General Insurance products, Offshore Investments, Money Transfer, Money Changing and Credit Cards.
Equities, commodities, forex trading, services And distribution house for financial products
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Reliance Capital offers a comprehensive direct equities service for our private clients, our services include:
An equity portfolio review and recommendation service; Comprehensive and short form research reports on Australia's leading Companies, together with regular economic and market reviews;
Access to floats and new issues; Access to International shares and detailed research information Access to government bonds; Clients who may be looking for advice on not only stocks but also on hybrids, warrants and options strategies
Ongoing management of your portfolio aligned to your long term wealth creation goals
We can also provide access to Separately Managed Accounts (SMA's) and Individually Managed Accounts for simple and transparent equities administration. To achieve long term financial success you will need a portfolio that increases in value over time. One of the sectors best able to achieve this growth is Australian listed shares. Listed shares can provide you with an income stream through the payment of dividends. Through dividend imputation, this income stream can be tax effective. Depending on your particular requirements you may choose shares that focus on growth opportunities, or on an income stream, or that provide a combination of both. Reliance Capitals approach to financial management has the flexibility to ensure that your individual needs are met. Our step-by-step wealth management service helps you structure a comprehensive financial strategy that meets both your immediate financial requirements and your long-term wealth creation goals and objectives. Reliance Capital applies academic research to the practical world of investing. Our objective is to help clients develop globally diversified portfolios and to add value through reduced costs and taxes.
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OBJECTIVE
It was good opportunity to familiarize myself with the stock market i.e. the capital market & their co-relation with economical environment through EQUITY RESEARCH. The analysis of equity gives me the opportunity to understand thoroughly this behavioral patterns of different equity & overall capital market.
1. To Study the equity analysis and obtain the knowledge of equity market 2. To Study the present behavior & predicting the future behavior of equity in stock market. 3. Obtain the knowledge about how to select the companies for investment.
To analyze the performance of companys through Balance Sheet & Technical graph of their shares.
RATIONALE
The present market scenario has shown us the Boom in Share Market. Even some of the research firms showed that Share Market is the fastest growing in India. From last two years share market is in boom. Now it is possible for the investors to trade from their own place. As compare to last two years there is a growth in the number of share brokers and market analysts. Media is playing an important role in these regards. Now the common man is also thinking of some investment in share market. Too many investors invest their money for the short span, the intention is speculative.
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RESEARCH METHODLOGY
During my project, I collected data through various sources primary & secondary.
Primary source includes :1) Discussion with branch manager 2) Discussion with experts 3) Questionnaires for investors 4) Live trading in the market
Secondary source includes :1) Various books related to stock market 2) Books related to Financial Management 3) Web sites were used as the vital information source.
Reliance Money felt need of evaluating the price patterns of leading scripts mainly from the five main blue chip companies and also interested in determining the trends along with price performance in near future. This equity analysis will facilitate to investor for profitable investment.
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EQUITY ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The investor, while buying stock, has the primary purpose of gain. If he invests for a short period of time, it is speculative but when he holds if for a fairly long period of time, the anticipation is that he would receive some return on his investment. The fundamental analysis is a method of finding out the future price of a stock, which an investor wishes to buy. The method for forecasting the future behavior of investment and the rate of return on them is clearly through an analysis of the broad economic forces, industry analysis, the company analysis and ration analysis.
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B. Industrial Analysis.
The industry analysis should take in to account the following factors as influence the performance of the company, whose share prices are to be analyzed. Product Line. It is also necessary to know the industries with a high growth potential like computers, electronics, chemicals, diamonds, textiles etc. and whether the industry is in the priority sector of the key industry group of capital goods or consumers goods group.
Raw Material and Inputs. Under these head, we have to look in to industries depending on imports of scare raw materials, competition from other companies and industries and the barriers to entry of new company, protection from foreign competition, import and export restriction etc.
Capacity Installed and Utilized. The demand for industrial product in the economy is estimated by the planning commission and the Government, and the units are given licensed capacity on the basis of these estimates.
Industry Characteristics. It included whether the industry is cyclical, fluctuating of stable. It is also important industry produce seasonal product or FMCG. It also included demand of product freight charges, cost of production, advertisement cost, skill of operation, profitability.
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Demand and Market. It includes demand of the product in the market and price of raw material and other input cost like freight, electricity, season, monsoon, etc. if the nature of product is such as drugs, fertilizer or other consumer goods, whose price and distribution control by Government.
Government Policy with regard to Industry Government Policy is announced in the industrial policy resolution and Subsequent announcement from time to time by the Government. The Policy strategy as laid down in the five years plans according to planning commission and expected demand in the economy.
Management. If the promoters and the management are the efficient and capable of steering the company through the difficult days such management likes TATA & BIRLA, who have reputation, buildup their companies on the strong foundation. The management has to be assessed in the terms of their capabilities, popularity, honesty and integrity.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into two very broad categories: Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis.
Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its value. Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesnt care one bit about the value of a company or a commodity. Technicians (some time called chartists) are only interested in the price movement in the market. Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market it self, as opposed to its components. If you understand the benefits and limitation of technical analysis it can give you a new set of tools or skills than will enable you to better trader or investor. DEFINITION Technical analysis is a method of evaluating the securities by analyzing the statistics generated by the market activity, such as past price and volume. In technical analysis, analysts use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. Just as there are many investment styles on fundamental side, there is also much different type of technical traders. Some rely on chart patterns. In any case, technical analysts exclusive use of historical price and volume data is what separates them from their fundamental counterparts. Unlike fundamental analysis technical analysts dont care whether a stock is undervalued the only thing that matter is a securitys past trading data and what information this data can provide about where the security might move in the future
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Assumptions:
1. The Market Discounts Everything A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of the company. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any given a time, a stocks price reflects everything that has or could affect the company- including Fundamental Factors. Technical analysts believe that the companys fundamentals, along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical theory views as a product of supply and demand for a particular stock in the market. 2. Price Moves In Trends
In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as the trend that to be against it. Most technical trading strategies are based on this assumption. 3. History Tends To Repeat Itself
Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movement is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time. Technical analysis uses chats patterns to analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these charts have been use for more than 100 years they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.
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Line charts
A style of charts that is created by connecting a series of data points together with a line. This is the most basic type of charts used in finance and connecting a series of past prices together with a line generally creates it.
Bar chart
A style of chart used by some technical analysts, on whom as illustrated below, the top of the vertical line indicates the highest price a security traded at during the day, and the bottom represents the lowest price. The closing price is displayed on the right side of the bar, and the opening price is shown on the left side of the bar. A single bar like the one below represents one day of trading.
These are the most popular type of chart used in technical analysis. The visual representation of price activity over a given period of time is used to spot trends and patterns.
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Candlestick
A price chart that displays the high, low, open and close for a security each day over a specified period of time.
There are many trading strategies based upon patterns in candlestick charting.
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It isnt hard to see that the trend in figure is up. However, isnt not always this easy to see a trend.
There are lots of ups and downs in this chart, but there isnt a clear indication of which direction this security is headed.
Types of Trend
There are three types of trend:
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As the names imply, when each successive peak and trough is higher, its referred to as an upward trend. If the peaks and troughs are getting lower. Its a downtrend. When there is little movement up or down in the peaks and troughs, its a sideways or horizontal trend. If you want to get really technical, you might even say that a sideways trend is actually not a trend on its own, but a lack of a well-defined trend in either direction. In any case, the market can really only trend in these three ways: up, down or nowhere.
Uptrend
Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is upward. A formal uptrend is when each successive peak and trough is higher than the ones found earlier in the trend.
Notice how each successive peak and trough is located above the previous ones. For example, the peak at trend is higher than the peak at uptrend. The uptrend will be deemed broken if the next low on the chart falls below trend.
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Downtrend
Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is downtrend. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend.
Notice how each successive peak and trough is lower than the previous one. For example, the low trend is lower than the low at Point. The downtrend will be deemed broken once the price closes above the high at high direction trend. Downtrend is the opposite of uptrend.
Trend lines
A trend line is a simple charting technique that adds a line to a chart to represent the trend in the market or a stock. Drawing a trend line is as simple as drawing a straight line that follows a general trend. These lines are used to clearly show the trend and are also used in the identification of the reversals.
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As you see in above Figure, an upward trend lines is drawn at the lows of an upward trend. This line represents the support the stock has every time it moves from a high to a low. Notice how the price is propped up by this support. This type of trend line helps traders to anticipate the point at which a stocks price will begin moving upwards again. Similarly, a downward trend line is drawn at the highs of the downward trend. This line represents the resistance level that a stock faces every time the price moves from a low to a high.
Trend Lengths:
Along with this trend direction, there is three-trend classification. A trend of any direction can be classified as a long-term trend, intermediate trend or a short-term. In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally categorized as one lasting longer than a year. An intermediate trend is considered to last between one and three months and a near-term trend is anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed of several intermediate trends, which obtain move against the direction of the major trend. If the major trend is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed by a continuation of the up trend, the correction is considered to be an intermediate trend. The short term trends are components both major and intermediate trends. Take a look a Figure to get a sense of how these three trends lengths might look.
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When analyzing trends, it is important that the chart is constructed to best reflect the type of trend being analyzed. To help identify long-term trends, chartists to get a better idea of the long-term trend use weekly charts or daily charts spanning a fiveyear period. Daily data charts are best use when analyzing both intermediate and short-term trends. It is also important to remember that the longer the trend, the more important it is; for example, a month trend is not as significant as five-year trend.
Channels
A Channel, or channel lines, is the addition of two parallel trend lines that act as strong areas of support and resistance. The upper trend line connects a series of highs, while the lower trend line connects a series of lows. A channel can slope upward, downward or sideways but regardless of the direction, the interpretation remains the same. Traders will expect a given security to trade between two levels of support and resistance until it breaks beyond one of the levels in which case traders can expect a sharp move in Direction of the break. Along with clearly displaying the trend, channel is mainly used to illustrate important areas of support and resistance.
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Above graph a descending channel on stock chart; the upper trend line has been placed on the highs and lower trend line is on the lows. The price has bounced off of these line several times, and has remained rang-bound for several months. As long as the price does not fall below the lower line or move beyond the upper resistance, the range bound downtrend is expected to continue.
Double Bottom
A charting pattern used in technical analysis. It describes the drop of a stock (or index), a rebound, another drop to the same (or similar) level as the original drop, and finally another rebound.
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Double Top
A term used in technical analysis to describe the rise of a stock, a drop, another rise to the same level as the original rise, and finally another drop.
The double top looks like the letter M. The twice-touched high is considered a resistance level.
Triple Bottom
A pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a prolonged downtrend. The pattern is identified when the price of an asset creates three troughs at nearly the same price level. The third bounce off the support is an indication that buying interest (demand) is outweighing selling interest (Supply) and that trend is in the process of reversing.
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Once the first bottom is created, the price reaches a peak and retraces back toward the prior support. This is when buyer enters again and pushes the price of the asset higher, creating bottom No.2. The price of the asset then created another peak and heads lower for its final test of the support. The final bounce of the support level creates bottom No.3 and traders will get ready to enter a long position once the price breaks above the previous resistance (Illustrated by the black on the chart). This pattern is considered to be a very reliable indication that the downtrend has reversed and that the new trend in the upward direction. Sudden change in the price direction of a stock, index, commodity or derivative security. Also referred to as a Trend Reversal, Rally or Correction.
Triple Top
A pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of prolonged up trend. This pattern is identified when the price of an asset creates three peaks at nearly the same price level. The bonus off the resistance near the third peak is clear indication that buying interest is becoming exhausted. The traders to predict the reversal of the up trend use it.
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The three consecutive tops make this pattern visually similar to the head and shoulders pattern but, in this case, the middle peak is nearly equal to the other peak rather than being higher. Many traders will enter into a short position once the price of asset falls below the identified support level. (Shown by the line in the chart above).
2. Then, the price rises above the former peak and again declines 3. And finally, rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more. The First and Third peaks are shoulders, and second peak forms the head.
The Head -and Shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
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Volume
The number of shares or contracts traded in a security or an entire market during a given period of time. It is simply the amount of shares that trade hands from sellers to buyers as a measure of activity. If a buyer of a stock purchases 100 shares from a seller, then the volume for that period increases by the 100 shares based on that transaction. Volume is an important indicator in the technical analysis as it is used to measure the worth of a market move. If the market have made strong price move either up or down the perceived strength of that move depends on the volume of that period. The higher the volume during that price move the more significant the move.
Support
The price, which, historically, a stock had difficulty falling below. It is thought of as the level at which a lot of buyers tend to enter the stock. Often referred to as the Support Level.
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Resistance
The Price at which a stock or market can trade, but which it cannot exceed, for a certain period of time. Often referred to as Resistance Level.
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Moving Average- MA
An indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a securitys price over a set of period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance.
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Infosys Technologies Ltd (Infosys) was incorporated on July 2, 1981, as a private ltd company. It became public limited company. To became public limited company on June 1992 and subsequently the name was also changed to Infosys Technologies Ltd. It was the first Indian company to be listed on American Stock Exchange. The company is one of Indias leading information technologies (IT) services companies. Enterprise Services, Product R&D services and Consulting Services. The company is having its Headquarters in Banglore and has 17 offshore development facilities like Aerospace & Defense, Automotive, and Banking & Capital Markets. Communication Services, Energy, Insurance, Healthcare, Media, Transportation Services etc., Infosys Technologies came out with an IPO in Feb. 1993 at a premium of Rs 95 for a face value of Rs 10 per share. Since then, it has issued three bonus issues (each in the ratio of 1:1) and split its face value of Rs 5 each. In Feb 2000, the ADRs were split in the ratio of 2:1. In 2004-05 the company has signed up 136 new clients and had a total client base of 438 at the end of the year. The companys product-FINACLE, is an integrated core banking solution that is centralized, muliti-currency and multilanguage-enabled, functionally rich, and addresses both retail and corporate banking requirements. During 2002, GOI has raised the investment limit in an Indian Company for FII from 49% to the maximum level approved by FDI and the maximum limit for the software industry as approved by FDI is 100% at present, the company is in the plan of increasing the limit of such investment to 100%. In 2006 The Company has completed the construction of an employee training facility in Mysore, India to further enhance our employee training capabilities. The Mysore Training complex wills accommodate 4,500 trainees at a time.
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INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (INFOSYS) Type Date of begin Date of End Description Net Sales Other income Total income Expenditure Operating Profit Gross Profit Depreciation Profit before Tax Tax Provision and Cost. Profit after Tax Extraordinary Items Net Profit Equity Capital Reserves EPS Result Type 35510 2550 38060 -25410 12650 12650 -1340 11310 -1030 -10280 -10280 2860 119040 18 Q 11240 2860 108760 19.96 Q Audited 1-Apr-07 1-Jun-07 Audited 1-Jan-07 Audited 1-Oct-06 Audited 1-Jul-06 30-Sep-06 Audited 1-Apr-06 30-Jun-06
31-Mar-07 31-Dec-06
Value {Rs.million} 35550 1200 36750 -24070 12680 12680 -1330 11350 -120 10 11240 34540 600 35140 -23050 12090 12090 -1290 10800 -1220 -9580 -9580 2790 93630 17.2 Q -8960 2780 82730 16.15 Q 32730 660 33390 -22190 11200 11200 -1100 -10100 -1140 -8960 28670 1290 29960 -19930 10030 10030 -970 9060 -1040 -30 7990 60 8050 1380 76900 29.13 Q
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infosys
2080 2060 2040 2020 2000 1980 1960 1940 1920 1900 1880 1860 1840 1820 1800 1780 1760 1740 1720 1700
Prices
Technical analysis of Infosys Technology ltd. From the chart of Infosys Technology Ltd we can say that script is having bullish trend as it is breaking new highs, it may further go up.
6/ 1/ 2 6/ 007 6/ 6/ 200 11 7 / 6/ 200 16 7 / 6/ 200 21 7 / 6/ 200 26 7 /2 7/ 007 1/ 2 7/ 007 6/ 7/ 200 11 7 / 7/ 200 16 7 / 7/ 200 21 7 / 7/ 200 26 7 /2 00 7
June & july 2007
Graph No.1
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Fundamental: 1. There is a fluctuation in equity dividend. There is no fixed policy regarding payment of dividend. 2. Rupee Dollar Fluctuation- As most of software companies in India having their clients in the abroad, mostly in USA. There fore their earning is getting from of dollar. If the dollar price decrease its affect their revenue badly and recently dollar price has come down to 40.53 from 42.95rs, it will affect forthcoming results, and currently fundamentally, it is not looking strong. 3. In India, salary of software professional will be increasing, and it will marginally affect profit of companies and because of that, EPS will be come down. 4. Infosys technology Ltd. On July 2007 has announced that it has signed a multi-million dollar outsourcing contract with Royal Philips Electronics. The deal with Philips reinforces the companys leadership position in transformation based BPO services. The companys BPO has significant growth over 70% in revenues and an increase in client base of over one-third in FY 2007. 5. Gross Profit Ratio of the Company is stable from last five years. It is a good sign of consistency and smooth working of the company. 6. The Net Profit Ratio is constant for last four years. It means company has good Future.
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Polypropylene PP). Within the country, Reliance is the largest manufacturer of Polyester Fiber & Yarn, PX, PTA and MEG. The market shares of the company are in a leading position for all its major business in India. RIL has grown into petrochemical major since its modest. Beginning with the systematic fabric mill at Naorda. The company has set up text rising/twisting facilities in 1979. Further the company has set up facility at Patalganga, Maharashtra to produced PFY in 1982, PSF in 1986, and liner alkyl benzene (LAB) and PTA in 1988. The company has set up petrochemical facility to produced HDPE and PVC at Hazira at Gujarat in technical collaboration with DuPont and BF Goodich respectively.
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Type Date of begin Date of End Description Gross Sales Excise Duty Net Sales Other income Total income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit before Tax Tax Profit after Tax Net Profit Equity Capital EPS Result Type
Value {Rs.million} 294930 -14370 280560 1050 281610 -228790 52820 -2880 49940 -9580 40360 -7720 32640 32640 13940 23.4 Q 273990 -15040 258950 850 259800 -211960 47840 -2770 45070 -10220 34850 -6320 28530 28530 13940 20.5 Q 277710 -12990 264720 420 265140 -217630 47510 -2930 44580 -10620 33960 -5970 27990 27990 13940 20.1 Q 295500 -10760 284740 220 284960 -239090 45870 -2780 43090 -10180 32960 -5820 27090 27090 13940 19.4 Q 261660 -16440 245220 440 245660 -202850 42810 -2660 40150 -9070 31080 -5610 25470 25470 13940 18.3 Q
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Reliance
1965 1955 1945 1935 1925 1915 1905 1895 1885 1875 1865 1855 1845 1835 1825 1815 1805 1795 1785 1775 1765 1755 1745 1735 1725 1715 1705 1695 1685 1675 1665 1655 1645
01 -J u 07 n-0 -J 7 u 13 n-0 -J 7 u 19 n-0 -J 7 u 25 n-0 -J 7 u 29 n-0 -J 7 u 05 n-0 -J 7 u 11 l-0 -J 7 u 17 l-0 -J 7 u 23 l-0 -J 7 u 27 l-0 -J 7 ul -0 7
Prices
Graph No.2
Technical analysis of Reliance Industry: The chart of Reliance Industry is looking bullish and No Correction is seen from the last two months and stock is in full movement and candle sticks are showing positive sign for long term investment.
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Fundamental: 1. Earning per share shows increasing trend from last four Quarters, it means profit generation capacity is increasing.
2. Company has announced good result for last quarter thats why it is looking bullish.
3. Reliance has entered in Retail market they have already started RELIANCE FRESH out lets
4. With in a short span of six years as an E&P operator, the company has discovered a hydrocarbons in the four offshore basin of India namely Krishna, Godavari, Mahanadi, sourashtra and now cauvery, basin with major commercial finds in deep water. This discovery establishes the company as a pioneer in the challenging deep-water exploration.
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The Company was incorporated on 24th December 1949 as Hindustan Electric Company Limited. In 1965, the Companys name was changed to Hindustan Brown Boveri Limited (HBB). Pursuant to the Scheme of Amalgamation of Asea Limited with HBB with effect from 1st January 1989, the name was further changed to Asea Brown Boveri Limited (ABB) with effect from 13th October 1989.
Flakt India Limited was amalgamated with ABB with effect from 5th October 1995. During 1994-95, a joint venture Company - ABB Daimler-Benz Transportation AG (Adtranz) was established by ABB Zurich and Daimler-Benz AG, Germany, in Germany. A subsidiary of Adtranz was incorporated in India viz. ABB DaimlerBenz Transportation Limited which took over the Transportation Business of the Company effective 1st January 1996. ABBs power generation business was globally transferred into the new 50-50 JV with Alstom in 1999. In India the power generation business has been demerged and transferred to ABB Alstom Power India Ltd. with effect from 1st April 1999. In consideration of the transfer of the power business, each shareholder of ABB has been allotted one share in ABB Alstom Power India Ltd. for every share held in the company. Capital: The Authorised Share Capital of the Company is Rs.500,000,000 and the paid-up share capital of the Company as at the end of the financial year ended 31st December 1999 is Rs.414,183,560, consisting of 41,418,356 Equity Shares of the face value of Rs.10 each. Shareholding Pattern: Asea Brown Boveri Limited, India, is a partly owned subsidiary of ABB Asea Brown Boveri Limited, Zurich, Switzerland (ABBZH). ABBZH and Flkt AB, Sweden, a 100 percent subsidiary of ABBZH, hold 50.99% of Equity Shares in the Company. The balance stake is held by: FIs 22.14%, FIIs 3.63%, MFs 2.32, Non-resident Individual 0.08%, Nationalised Banks 0.15%, Bodies Corporate 0.93%,Directors and their relatives 0.01%, NSDL (Transit) 1.95% and General Public 17.8%.
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ABB LTD.
Type Date of begin Date of End Description Net Sales Other income Total income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit before Tax Tax Profit after Tax Net Profit Equity Capital EPS Result Type
Value {Rs.million} 13124.44 151.69 13276.13 -11842.61 1433.52 -10.02 1423.5 -86.17 1337.33 -471 866.33 866.33 423.82 20.44 Q 14263.15 174.06 14437.22 -12316.42 2120.8 -1.09 2119.71 -71.16 2048.55 -699 1349.55 1349.55 423.82 31.84 Q 10705.6 230.4 10936 -9599.84 1336.16 -2.47 1333.68 -66.25 1267.43 -443 821.43 821.43 423.82 19.38 Q 9742.21 152.97 9895.17 -8722.17 1173.01 -1.75 1171.26 -65.21 1106.05 -387 719.05 719.05 423.82 16.97 Q 8029.13 179.51 8208.63 -7334.61 874.03 -1.94 872.09 -62.06 810.03 -297 513.03 513.03 423.82 12.11 Q
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ABB
5100 4950 4800 4650 4500 4350 4200 4050 3900 3750 3600 3450 3300 3150 3000 2850 2700 2550 2400 2250 2100 1950 1800 1650 1500 1350 1200 1050 900
Prices
Technical analysis of ABB: The stock of ABB is in consolidation phase thats why its become unpredictable that where it would be go. In 7th July 2007 in this period the company has declared record date for stock spilt. (i.e. for every 1share= 5shares). Because the record date was new the stock went up for upward 4800 level (upside at 200 points) & for this level it spilt (4800/5) = 960Rs. & then went up again follow as it 400 in case volatile in the stock. 55
Graph No.3
STOCK SPLIT
ABB
4950 4850 4750 4650 4550 4450 4350
6/ 1/ 0 6/ 7 4/ 0 6/ 7 7 6/ /07 10 6/ /07 13 6/ /07 16 6/ /07 19 6/ /07 22 6/ /07 25 /0 7
Prices
ABB
1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900
6/ 28 / 7/ 07 1/ 7/ 07 4/ 7/ 07 7 7/ /07 10 7/ /07 13 7/ /07 16 7/ /07 19 7/ /07 22 7/ /07 25 7/ /07 28 7/ /07 31 /0 7
Prices
Fundamental: 1. ABB comes under capital goods sector its main competitors are siemens and crompton greaves but ABB has strong order book than those competitor. The next 5 to 6 year it is expected to be completed 2. Bags order worth 289 cr. from Delhi metro rail corporation.
3. ABB has very good EPS as compare to its competitor so stock is good.
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Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) is a technology-driven engineering and construction organization, and one of the largest companies in India's private sector. It has additional interests in manufacturing, services and Information Technology. A strong, customer-focused approach and the constant quest for top-class quality have enabled the Company to attain and sustain leadership in its major lines of business across seven decades. L&T has an international presence, with a global spread of offices. A thrust on international business over the last few years has seen overseas earnings growing to 18 per cent of total revenue. With factories and offices located around the country, further supplemented by a wide marketing and distribution network, L&T's image and equity extends to virtually every district of India. L&T believes that progress must necessarily be achieved in harmony with the environment. A commitment to community welfare and environmental protection constitute an integral part of the corporate vision.
History
The evolution of L&T into the country's largest engineering and construction organizations is among the more remarkable success stories in Indian industry. The company was founded in Bombay (Mumbai) in 1938 by two Danish engineers, Henning Holck-Larsen and Soren Kristian Toubro - both of whom were strongly committed to developing India's engineering talent and enabling it to meet the demands of industry. Beginning with the import of machinery from Europe, L&T rapidly took on engineering and construction assignments of increasing
sophistication. Today, the company sets engineering benchmarks in terms of scale and complexity.
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Type Date of begin Date of End Description Gross Sales Excise Duty Net Sales Other income Total income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit before Tax Tax Profit after Tax Net Profit Equity Capital EPS Result Type
Value {Rs.million}
45738.7 -686.6 45052.1 2114.7 47166.8 -40821.6 6345.2 -157.2 6188 -424.1 5763.9 -1995.4 3768.5 3768.5 567.6 13.3 Q 63657.4 -1175 62482.4 2041.4 64523.8 -54384 10139.8 -63.3 10076.5 -698.1 9378.4 -2370.7 7007.7 7007.7 566.5 24.95 Q Q 41995.1 -810.9 41184.2 1279.3 42463.5 -36928.9 5534.6 -12.2 5522.4 -356.7 5165.7 -1726.7 3439 3439 561.1 12.27 38043 -682.3 37360.7 1117.3 38478 -34978.8 3499.2 -106.1 3393.1 -336.4 3056.7 -1044.5 2012.2 2012.2 280 14.39 Q 35318.3 -549.3 34769 474.3 35243.3 -32328.6 2914.7 -157.7 2757 -308.9 2448.1 -876.8 1571.3 1571.3 278.3 11.37 Q
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LNT
2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 1 -0 8 -1 5 -2 2 -2 9 -0 6 -1 3 -2 0 -2 7 -0 7
Prices
06
06
06
06
06
07
07
07
Graph No.4
Technical Analysis: The chart of Larson & Toubro is looking I saw how support and
resistance levels can be penetrated by a change in investor expectations. This type of a change is often abrupt and news based. In this section I will review trends. A trend represents a consistent change in prices (i.e. a change in investor expectations) As shown in the following chart, a rising trend is defined by successively higher low prices. A rising trend can be thought of as a rising support level-the bulls are in control and are pushing prices higher.
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07
Fundamental: 1. Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) has announced that the Company has secured two more Design and Build contracts from Delhi Metro Railway Corporation (DMRC) for the construction of the underground station at Saket (Delhi) and a tunnel as part of its Phase II Project. 2. Larsen & Toubro Ltd has announced that the Company has bagged an order for Rs. 980 corers for the supply and installation of Blast Furnace from Tata Steel for its project in kalinganagar orissa. 3. Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) going to set up IT special economic zone with Arun Excello at vallancheri Tamilnadu. 4. The company currently has order book worth Rs. 41600 corers.
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The origin of the State Bank of India goes back to the first decade of the nineteenth century with the establishment of the Bank of Calcutta in Calcutta on 2 June 1806. Three years later the bank received its charter and was re-designed as the Bank of Bengal (2 January 1809). A unique institution, it was the first joint-stock bank of British India sponsored by the Government of Bengal. The Bank of Bombay (15 April 1840) and the Bank of Madras (1 July 1843) followed the Bank of Bengal. These three banks remained at the apex of modern banking in India till their amalgamation as the Imperial Bank of India on 27 January 1921. Primarily Anglo-Indian creations, the three presidency banks came into existence either as a result of the compulsions of imperial finance or by the felt needs of local European commerce and were not imposed from outside in an arbitrary manner to modernize India's economy. Their evolution was, however, shaped by ideas culled from similar developments in Europe and England, and was influenced by changes occurring in the structure of both the local trading environment and those in the relations of the Indian economy to the economy of Europe and the global economic framework.
(Subsidiary Banks) Act was passed in 1959, enabling the State Bank of India to take over eight former State-associated banks as its subsidiaries (later named Associates). The State Bank of India was thus born with a new sense of social purpose aided by the 480 offices comprising branches, sub offices and three Local Head Offices inherited from the Imperial Bank. The concept of banking as mere repositories of the community's savings and lenders to creditworthy parties was soon to give way to the concept of purposeful banking sub serving the growing and diversified financial needs of planned economic development. The State Bank of India was destined to act as the pacesetter in this respect and lead the Indian banking system into the exciting Field of national development.
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Type
STATE BANK OF INDIA UnAudited UnAuditid UnAudited UnAudited 1-Apr-07 1-Jan-07 1-Oct-06 31-Dec-06 1-Jul-06 30-Sep-06
UnAudited
Date of begin Date of End Description Operating income Interest on advance Income on Investment Interest on Balances Other Intersts Other Income Total Income Interest Expanded Operating Expenses Payment for Employees Other Operating Expenses Total Expenditure for Banks Operating Profit Profit before tax Tax Tax provisions and contingencies Profit after tax Net profit Equity Capital Reserves Percent of shares Govt.of India Capital Adequacy Ratio in % EPS Result Type
1-Apr-06 30-Jun-06
88361.5 54673.5 29402.1 3441.2 844.7 17626 105987.5 -49520.6 -28102.4 -19242.9 -8859.5 -77623 28364.5 28364.5 -7559.1 -12819.7 7985.7 7985.7 5263 271177.9 -11.97 15.17 Q
30-Jun-07 31-Mar-07
113865.1 79885.2 28943.6 4970.6 65.7 8425.8 122290.9 -68891.2 -29785.1 -20263.7 -9521.4 -98676.3 23614.6 23614.6 -7762.8 -1593.7 14258.1 14258.1 5263 305036.6 59.73 13.13 27.09 Q
Value {Rs.million} 115414.6 97359.4 93774.7 70565.6 64135.5 59017.1 28452.6 28331.2 28744
16270.3 126.1 28943 144357.6 -72213.3 -32460.2 -20238.8 -12221.4 -104673.5 39684.1 39684.1 -10626.3 -14125.9 14931.9 14931.9 5263 305036.6 -12.34 28.37 Q 3524.8 1367.9 18110.3 115469.7 -57846.1 -29074 -20297.1 -8776.9 -86920.1 28549.6 28549.6 -6237.1 -11661.9 10650.6 10650.6 5263 271177.9 -11.86 20.24 Q 3959.8 2053.8 14337.6 108112.3 -54788.2 -28598.4 -19547.1 -9051.3 -83386.6 24725.7 24725.7 -6067.4 -6813.4 11844.9 11844.9 5263 271177.9 -12.63 22.51 Q
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SBI 1850 1825 1800 1775 1750 1725 1700 1675 1650 1625 1600 1575 1550 1525 1500 1475 1450 1425 1400 1375 1350 1325 1300 1275 1250 1225 1200 6/11/2007 6/16/2007 6/21/2007 6/26/2007 7/11/2007 7/16/2007 7/21/2007 7/26/2007 7/31/2007 6/1/2007 6/6/2007 7/1/2007 7/6/2007
Prices
Technical analysis of State Bank Of India: The chart of State Bank Of India is looking bullish and No Correction is seen from the last two months and stock is in full movement and candle sticks is showing positive sign for long term investment.
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Fundamental: 1. RBI has increased CRR by 0.5 %. It may affect the performance of Bank 2. Interest rate hike. 3. State Bank of India (SBI) has informed BSE that the Bank has decided to
revise interest rates on domestic term deposits rate with effect from August 09, 2007.
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Investment types Stock market Bank F.D Real estate Mutual funds Total
Percentage 20 30 40 10 100
10%
20% Stock market Bank F.D Real estate Mutual funds 30%
40%
Graph 6
Interpretation:
From the above table & pie chart, it represent that people invest only 20 % of money in Stock market & 10% in Mutual Funds. 40% of people generally interested in Real estate and Bank F.D 30%. Because the chances of risk and losses are minimum than Stock Market & Mutual Funds. Even the returns are more in Stock Market & Mutual Funds, but due safety people prefer Real estate and Band F.D.
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How will you decide a company for investment? Selection of company for investment Own Decision Broker Advice Speculation Research Reports No. of Respondents
30 84 46 40 200
Table 2
No. of Respondents
Percentage
15 42 23 20 100
20%
23% 42%
Graph 7
Interpretation: From the above table & pie chart it represents that 42% of people
take Advice of Broker while investment in stocks, and 23% of people invest on the basis of speculation, and 20% on basis of Research Reports by Technical analyst and 15% invest on there own decision. But many experts feel that if people invest money in stock market by Research Report then chances of profit is high and losses are minimum because Research Report give good suggestion and already they have calculated risk in stocks so it will be beneficial while investment. If investment on the basis of speculation the chances of losses are high and profits minimum. If you do not have, any knowledge of stock market so should ask to your Broker who will advice you in better way because these people have good knowledge than us.
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2) What kind of trading you do? Types of Trading Intra day Short term Medium Trading Long term Trading No. of Respondent 86 44 22 48 200 Table 3
No. of Respondent
Percentage 43 22 11 24 100
24% 43% Intra day Short term Medium Trading 11% 22% Long term Trading
Graph 8
Interpretation: From the above Graph & Pie chart it represent that 43% people
do intraday in which the profit and risk both are the high but many research suggest that it is always better to investment of money in long term than short term or medium term or intraday (i.e. speculations). If we invest money on longterm basis then returns are good & the risk is minimum. Therefore, it is always good invest money for long-term basis
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2) What are the factors do you consider while selection of company? Factor consider for selection of company Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Both Speculation No. of Respondents
86 44 20 50 200
Table 4
No. of Respondents
Percentage
43 22 10 25 100
25% 43% Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Both 10% 22% speculation
Graph 9
Interpretation: From the above Graph & Pie chart it represent that 43% of
people take the help of fundamental and 22% of people take the help of technical analysis by which the risk can be calculated and profit can be maximize. However, even that 25% of people invest on the basis of speculation, which is risky. 10% are people invest money by both (i.e. fundamentally and technical) by which prediction can be good. If people invest money on the basis of analysis then the risk can be minimize and profit can be maximize.
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3) Where will you most prefer to invest your money? Most prefer companies Large cap Mid cap Small cap No. of Respondents 105 40 55 200
Table 5
No. of Respondents
28%
Graph 10
Interpretation: From the above Graph & table, we can say that 50% percent of
people like to invest money in Blue Chips companies because the volumes of trading and good results are more. Therefore, the profit is more. Mid cap and small, give minimum profit than blue chips or large cap.
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15%
Graph 11 Interpretation: From the above Graph & chart, we can say that 55% of people prefer
I.T. Sector for investment because these companies are strong by fundamentally and it have large market capitalization than others. After that, 30% of people prefer banking sector it has large market capitalization and after that, 15% of people like to invest in Engineering companies.
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Finding
1. Infosys
With the reference to graph no.1, Technical analysis of script interprets that, wait & watch because script forms interprets that after correction comes in stock it gets well supported level. Fundamental analysis interprets that EPS is per share Rs.19.96 in 2007 continues increasing last 5 year. Infosys fundamental analysis interprets that; company gives equity dividend 300% this year. It means that script is strong and investor should remain in stock for long period. Returns are very good. The target price is Rs.2040.so there is an upside there, the structure is positive but one needs to put a stop at around Rs 2020. Particular stock has some news eg;-result, entering into new business, merger with other company, & on basis of that news the price goes up or down.
2. Reliance Industries
With the reference to Graph no 2, Technical analysis of script interprets that, wait & watch because script forms has always rising pattern over period. The fundamental analysis interprets that; company gives equity dividend 100% this year. EPS is Rs.20.5 per share. Reliance Industries shareholders & creditors approve Scheme of Amalgamation. Gross Profit & Net Profit is also maintained. Reliance Industries script is fundamentally strong. An investor should buy in current rally for long period. Returns are very good. The starter price Rs 1945 so there is a structure is positive a stop at around Rs. 1795.
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3. ABB
With the reference to Graph no 3, Technical analysis of script interprets that, wait & watch because script forms Stock Split. ABB Ltd. Fundamentally is shows that are much fluctuation in EPS is Rs.20.44 per share. Company has decided the dividend but not declared. Fundamental analysis suggests that it has a split stock that s why this stock is very good for buy for delivery .Investor can buy a stock for long period of time the target price is Rs.1500.
4. L&T
With the reference to Graph no 4, The technical analysis of the script interprets that buy in up trend rally because of script has always rising pattern over period. L& T in this script I found that fundamental analysis that, company gives equity dividend 500% this year. EPS is Rs.24.95 per share. Company also offers the bonus share 1:1 per share in 2007.gross profit & net profit is consistent. Script is fundamentally strong. Particular stock has some news e.g.;-result, entering into new business, merger with other company, & on basis of that news the price goes up or down.
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Suggestion Chart
Script EPS Dividends Bonus Result CMP Target Price
2040 1945 1500 2750 1690
---1:1 --
SUGGESTION
Following are suggestions made based on study with reference to watch on NEAT Screen, interaction with clients, data analysis and findings: 1. In IT sector Infosys is very good because its EPS is continuously increasing and company have given 300 % dividend it means stock is strong by fundamentally and technically it is also growing very well people should invest in this stock 2. Reliance Industries is also looking strong by fundamentally and technically, in future it is entering in to new business, merger with other company so this is also good option for investment. 3. ABB is split stock, split-ratio was (4800/5) = 960 is split price that is why this stock is very good for delivery due to split the price is down it was 4800 before split. 4. Technically L&T is in rising pattern, company offered the bonus share 1:1 per share and gross profit and net profit is consistent. This is good stock for investment
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5.
As the largest bank in India SBI is also very good for investment, EPS is also increasing it will entering into new business and it will merger with other banks (State Bank of Sourashtra) on the basis of this price goes up or down.
6.
Share market is growing sectors if people invest money in stocks the returns will be good than Bank F.D & Real Estate. People also should invest money Mutual Funds as per return concerns.
7.
If people invest money on Research reports or broker advice then chances of risk is low and chances of return will be high.
8.
It is always better to invest money on long term basis than intra day because intraday is nothing but a speculation
9.
If people consider both i.e. fundamental analysis and technical analysis then it will be better than speculation
10.
Currently IT sector is in boom so it is better to invest money in IT and also good in Banking sector
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CONCLUSION
With the help of project I concluded that blue chip companies are playing very important role in the share market. Lot of investors is investing their money in the blue chip companies. And this is the reason that the volume of blue chip companies is high.
During this period of two months I came to know that in the process of equity analysis of blue chip companies two weapons are playing a vital role i.e. Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis.
The concept of Fundamental Analysis studies the performance of blue chip companies. With the help of Fundamental Analysis can know the past performance of the blue chip companies. Fundamental Analysis considers the long-term performance of companies and this helps the investors to invest their money for long term as well as can get the good returns.
Technical Analysis comprises short-term analysis of blue chip companies. Technical Analysis really just studies supply and demand in the market in an attempt to determine what direction or trend will continue in the future.
The study of technical as well as fundamental analysis can give detail information about the well running companies in the market. Before investing in any company one should study these two concepts.
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LIMITATIONS OF STUDY
To understand the overall working of share market, the period of 60 days is not enough.
Moreover, very few investor and agents have a detail knowledge of the study.
A study is conducted in Nasik only, which restrict the scope of the study
The data provided by the investor and the agents cant be held true as 100% correct.
The study was conducted to understand with respect to fundamental and technical analysis, which is a part of the equity share market.
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A to Z Analysis
Dalal Streets
www.bseindia.com
www.nseindia.com
www.reliancemoney.com
www.moneycontrol.com
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