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Prepared By: Manisankar Halder

Prepared By: Manisankar Halder

Prepared By: Manisankar Halder

Prepared By: Manisankar Halder

Prepared By: Manisankar Halder

Prepared By: Manisankar Halder

 Heads (H) or
Tails (T)

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The probability of any one of them is 1/6

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Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability that a blue marble will be picked?

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Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues) Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)
=
=0.8

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A random experiment; that is, an experiment whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty, before the experiment is run.

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 The experiment of 'Toss of a coin' is a random experiment. It is so because when a coin is tossed the result may be 'Head' or it may be 'Tail'.

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A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an Experiment.

Example: A coin is flipped Sample Space={head, tail}
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A sample point is the most basic outcome of an experiment.

A coin is flipped Sample Space={head, tail} Sample points are head, tail
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The Sample points are each of possible outcomes.

Sample Space={head, tail} Sample points are head, tail

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 A Sample Point is just one possible outcome.

An Event can be one or more of the possible outcomes

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1. For any event A, 0 P(A) 1. 2. P(impossible event) = 0. Also written P(empty set) = 0 or P() = 0.

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3. P(sure event) = 1. Also written P(S) = 1 where S is the sample space. 4. P(not A) = 1 P(A). Also written P(complement of A) = 1 P(A) or P(AC) = 1 P(A)
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A set of possible outcomes resulting from a particular experiment.

Example Events: Getting a Tail when tossing a coin is an event

Rolling a dice "5" is an event.
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1. Independent Events
Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring.

Example
Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided dice
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2. Dependent Events
When two events are said to be dependent, the probability of one event is affected by the other event.

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Dependent Events Example:

2 two blue and 3 red are marbles are in a bag. If marbles picked the chances of

getting a blue marble?

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3. Certain Events An event which is sure to occur is called a certain event. Examples
The Christmas will be celebrated on the 25th of December this year. This is a certain

event.

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4. Impossible Events An event which is sure not to occur is called an impossible event. Example: The probability of getting 7 in the throw of a dice is 0. which is an impossible event.
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4. Impossible Events Example: A teacher chooses a student at random from a class of 30 boys. What is the probability that the student chosen is a girl?

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5. Mutually Exclusive Event Two events are called Mutually

Exclusive if the occurrence of one of

those events, precludes the possibility

of the other event. P(A and B) = 0 (impossible)

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5. Mutually Exclusive Event Examples:

Turning left and turning right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at the same time). Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive.

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5. Mutually Exclusive Event Example:

Aces and Kings are Mutually Exclusive (can't be both)

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5. Mutually Exclusive Event Probability of A or B is the sum of the individual Probabilities.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A and B) = 0

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5. Mutually Exclusive Event

Example: A Deck of Cards In a Deck of 52 Cards.
The probability of a King is
P(King)=

The probability of an Ace is

P(Ace)=

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5. Mutually Exclusive Event

Example: A Deck of Cards In a Deck of 52 Cards.
P(King and Ace) = 0
P(King or Ace) = +

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5. Mutually Not Exclusive Event

Hearts and Kings are not Mutually Exclusive (can be both)

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5. Mutually Not Exclusive Event

16 Cards = 13 Hearts + 4 Kings - the 1 extra King of Hearts P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

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Questions1: Which of the following pairs of events is mutually exclusive? (A) Cards: Aces and Spades (B) Two dice: Odd and even (C) Sit down and stand up (D) Sit down and scratch your nose

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Questions2: A card is chosen at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. What is the probability of a King or a Queen?

(A) 0
(C) (D)

1 (B) 169

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams allow us to see all the possible outcomes of an event and calculate their probability. Each branch in a tree diagram represents a possible outcome.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams:
Tree diagram for the toss of a coin
There are two "branches" (Heads and Tails) The probability of each branch is written on the branch The outcome is written at the end of the branch

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams:
The tree diagram to two tosses of a coin:

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Probability Tree Diagrams

How do you calculate the overall probabilities?
You multiply probabilities along the branches. You add probabilities down columns.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

How do you calculate the overall probabilities? When two events, A and B, are independent:
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) When two events, mutually exclusive: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
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and

B,

are

Probability Tree Diagrams

How do you calculate the overall probabilities?

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Example: The probability of "Head, Head.
The probability of getting at least one Head from two tosses.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Example1:
There are two identical bottles. One bottle contains 2 green balls and 1 red ball. The other contains 2 red balls. A bottle is selected at random and a single ball is drawn. What is the probability that the ball is red?

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer1:
P(first bottle, red) = 1/2 1/3 = 1/6 P(second bottle, red) = 1/2 1 = 1/2 P(red) = 1/6 + 1/2 = 2/3
Selection of bottles

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Example2:
The 4 aces are removed from a deck of cards. A coin is tossed and one of the aces is chosen. What is the probability of getting heads on the coin and the ace of hearts? Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the sample space.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer1:

P(Head, Heart) = 1/2 1/4 = 1/8

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Example3:
A spinner has 4 equally likely regions numbered 1 to 4. The arrow is spun twice. What is the probability that the spinner will land on a 1 on the first spin and on a red region on the second spin? Draw a tree diagram to represent your

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer3:

P(1, Red) = 1/4 1/2 = 1/8

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Example4:
a coin being tossed three times. Draw a tree diagram and answer the following questions.

1. The probability of three heads.

2. The probability of two heads and a tail.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer4:

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer4:
The probability of three heads is: P (H H H) = 1/2 1/2 1/2 = 1/8 P (2 Heads and a Tail) = P (H H T) + P (H T H) + P (T H H) = 1/2 1/2 1/2 + 1/2 1/2 1/2 + 1/2 1/2 1/2 = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8
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Probability Tree Diagrams

Example5:
Bag A contains three red marbles and four blue marbles. Bag B contains five red marbles and three blue marbles. A marble is taken from each bag in turn. Draw a tree diagram and find 1. The probability of getting a blue bead followed by a red? 2. What is the probability of getting a bead of each color?
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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer5.1: P (blue and red) = 4/7 5/8 = 20/56 = 5/14

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Answer5.2: P (blue and red or red and blue) = P (blue and red) + P (red and blue)
= 4/7 5/8 + 3/7 3/8 = 20/56 + 9/56 = 29/56
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Probability Tree Diagrams

Activity1:
A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at random from the bag and replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the balls in the bag and then picks another ball at random from the bag. a) Construct a probability tree of the problem. b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks: i) two black balls ii) a black ball in his second draw
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Probability Tree Diagrams

Activity1:

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Activity2:
Bag A contains 10 marbles of which 2 are red and 8 are black. Bag B contains 12 marbles of which 4 are red and 8 are black. A ball is drawn at random from each bag. a) Draw a probability tree diagram to show all the outcomes the experiment.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Activity2:
b) Find the probability that: (i) both are red. (ii) both are black. (iii) one black and one red. (iv) at least one red.

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Probability Tree Diagrams

Solution-Ac-2a:

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