MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: DATE: RE: TOM EMMER FOR CONGRESS CAMPAIGN ROB AUTRY APRIL 18, 2014 MINNESOTA CD 6 SURVEY RESULTS

THE BOTTOM LINE
This recently completed survey of likely Republican Primary voters in Minnesota’s Sixth Congressional District leaves no doubt who the frontrunner is in the race to replace retiring Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. Tom Emmer emerges from the district’s Republican convention not only as the partyendorsed candidate, but also the only one candidate in this race with a significantly positive image rating and an overwhelming lead on the ballot test.

KEY FINDINGS
1. Tom Emmer’s favorable image among likely Republican Primary voters is through-the-roof. Fully 94% of likely primary voters have heard of Emmer and 81% have an opinion of him, making Emmer the most recognizable candidate in this race by far. Additionally, almost three-fourths (71%) of likely voters view Emmer favorably, while only 10% view him unfavorably. This impressive favorability rating is even stronger among groups most likely to turn out in a primary contest – self-identified strong Republicans, very conservative voters, Tea Party backers, and social/religious conservatives. Comparatively, neither of Tom Emmer’s two primary opponents is particularly well-defined. Less than one out of four (22%) have an opinion of Phil Krinkie (16% favorable – 6% unfavorable) and just 14% have an opinion of Rhonda Sivarajah (11% favorable – 3% unfavorable). Tom Emmer holds a staggering 64-point lead on the primary ballot against his two primary opponents (combined!). On the primary ballot test, Emmer receives 73% of the vote, while Rhonda Sivarajah garners 5% and Phil Krinkie 4%. Emmer’s lead is even larger among selfidentified strong Republicans (78% Emmer – 6% everyone else), strong Republicans who are ideologically very conservative (77% Emmer – 10% others), and strong Republicans who are Tea Party supporters (77% Emmer – 8% others). In other words, those who are most likely to vote will be voting for Tom Emmer. Tom Emmer’s support climbs even higher when likely primary voters learn he is Republican endorsed candidate (79% voting for Emmer – 3% Krinkie – 4% Sivarajah).

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METHODOLOGY
This data comes from a survey of 300 likely Republican Primary voters in Minnesota’s Sixth Congressional District conducted on April 16-17, 2014. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.66%. Public Opinion Strategies is a national public opinion research company whose client base includes more than 75 Members of Congress. In the last six election cycles, Public Opinion Strategies helped elect more new members of the U.S. House than any other polling firm, Democrat or Republican.

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