Formula Help Sheet for Introduction to Business Process Modeling DISC 230

Time study sample size =

2 2

Work sampling sample size = (1 ) Learning Curve = 1

Where = 1 = b = ln (learning percent)/ln 2

Observed Time =

Normal Time NT = OT x PR Standard time ST = NT x AF Where PR = performance rating AF = Allowance factor Reliability P(no failure before T)= e-T/MTBF, e=2.7183 Z = (T-mean wear out time)/Standard deviation of wear out time

Moving Average Forecast Ft = M An = where Ft = Forecast for period t M An = Moving Average for n Periods Ati = Actual Value in Period t i n = number of periods Weighted Moving Average
n n i=1

Ati n

Ft =
i=1

wti Ati

where wti = Weight of period t i Exponential Smoothing Ft = Ft1 + (At1 Ft1 ) where = Smoothing constant Linear Trend Equation Ft = a + bt where ty t y = slope of the line t2 ( t)2 yb t = Value of Ft at time period t equals 0 a= n y = Value of time series b= n n Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing T AFt+1 = St + Tt Previous TAF + smoothed error = St = T AFt + (At T AFt ) current trend estimate = Tt = Tt1 + (T AFt T AFt1 Tt1 ) Trend adjusted forecast for period t = T AFt = Smoothing Constant

Seasonality Adjusted Forecasting p = periodicity Centered Moving Average for odd p

1 t+( p 2 )

t = D

1 i=t( p 2 )

Ai

p
t1+p/2 i=t+1p/2

Centered Moving Average for even p t = D Dtp/2 + Dt+p/2 + 2p 2Di

t SRIt = Dt /D SRI = Average of SRIs for all t t = De-seasonalized Demand for period t = D Dt SRI t

t = Ft SRI t Seasonality adjusted forecast for period t = F Mean Absolute Deviation = M AD = Mean Squared Error = M SE = |At Ft | n 2 t (At Ft ) n1
t t |At Ft | At

Mean Absolute Percent Error = M AP E =

100

Product Layouts Operating time / day Cycle time Operating time / day Desired Cycle time = Desired Output rate t Nmin = Desired Cycle Time Output rate = where Nmin = minimum number of work stations t = sum of task times % Idle time = Idle time / cycle 100 Nactual Desired Cycle Time

Eciency = 100% % Idle time Work Sampling n= z 2 p (1 p ) e n = sample size p = Sample proportion (Number of occurrences divided by sample size) z = number of normalized standard deviation needed for desired condence e = maximum error Center of Gravity Method x = xi n yi y = n x coordinate of location i y coordinate of location i n= number of destinations x = y = xi Qi Qi yi Qi Qi Qi = Quantity to shipped to location i