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(KN) S97454/2

UCLES 2006 [Turn over

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE INTERNATIONAL EXAMINATIONS

General Certificate of Education Ordinary Level

STATISTICS 4040/02

Paper 2

October/November 2006

2 hours 15 minutes

Additional Materials: Answer Booklet/Paper

Graph paper

Mathematical tables

Pair of compasses

Protractor

READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS FIRST

If you have been given an Answer Booklet, follow the instructions on the front cover of the Booklet.

Write your Centre number, candidate number and name on all the work you hand in.

Write in dark blue or black pen on both sides of the paper.

You may use a soft pencil for any diagrams or graphs.

Do not use staples, paper clips, highlighters, glue or correction fluid.

Answer all questions in Section A and not more than four questions from Section B.

Write your answers on the separate Answer Booklet/Paper provided.

All working must be clearly shown.

The use of an electronic calculator is expected in this paper.

The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question or part question.

At the end of the examination, fasten all your work securely together.

2

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006

Section A [36 marks]

Answer all of the questions 1 to 6.

1 (a) A white dice and a blue dice are thrown. Each dice is unbiased and has faces numbered 1, 2,

3, 4, 5 and 6.

Events A, B, C and D are defined below.

A: 3 is scored on the white dice.

B: 3 is scored on the blue dice.

C: 3 is scored on both dice.

D: 4 is scored on both dice.

(i) Name two of these events which are mutually exclusive. [1]

(ii) Name two of these events which are independent. [1]

(b) Given that events E and F are independent, state, for each of the following, whether or not it

must be true.

(i) P(E) = P(F). [1]

(ii) P(E and F) = P(E) + P(F). [1]

(iii) P(E and F) = P(E) P(F). [1]

(iv) P(E and F) = 0. [1]

3

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006 [Turn over

2 Students in two different classes, A and B, sat the same examination. The marks obtained by the

students are summarised in the following table.

(i) Calculate, to 1 decimal place, the mean mark obtained by all the students in both classes.

[4]

The sum of the squares of the marks obtained by all the 33 students is 109 528.

(ii) Calculate, to 1 decimal place, the standard deviation of the marks obtained by all the 33

students. [2]

3 The masses of the 300 eggs laid on one particular day by the hens on a small poultry farm were

recorded to the nearest gram. The results are summarised in the following table.

For the 51 55 class, state

(i) the class boundaries, [2]

(ii) the class interval. [1]

Eggs weighing 44 grams and under as classed as small.

(iii) Estimate the percentage of the day's production of eggs which was classed as small. [3]

Number of students Mean mark obtained

in the class by students in the class

Class A 21 54

Class B 12 57.5

Mass (g) 36 40 41 45 46 50 51 55 56 60

Number of eggs 59 70 71 64 36

4

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006

4 A machine at the exit to a car park is able to calculate, from information on a ticket inserted into it

by each driver, the length of time, t, in completed minutes, for which a car has been in the car park.

The following table summarises the information about the length of stay of cars in the car park

during one particular day.

Calculate, in minutes, to the nearest minute, the interquartile range of the times for which cars

were in the car park on that day. [6]

5 During their weekly gymnastics class, all the pupils in one particular school spend two minutes

exercising on a rowing machine. The machine records the number of strokes which each pupil

completes during that time. The number of strokes completed, r, is found to have a mean of 54

and a standard deviation of 8.

To enable a comparison to be made with pupils' performances in other gymnastic activities, the

number of strokes completed are to be transformed to a scaled value, s, which has a mean of 100

and a standard deviation of 10.

(i) Calculate the scaled value for a pupil who completed 78 strokes on the machine during two

minutes. [2]

(ii) Calculate the number of strokes completed in two minutes by a pupil whose scaled value was

80. [2]

(iii) Find an expression for the scaled value, s, in terms of the corresponding value of r, and

simplify it. [2]

t (minutes) Number of

cars

t < 30 24

30 t < 60 25

60 t < 90 41

90 t < 120 46

120 t < 180 51

180 t < 240 42

240 t < 300 34

t 300 12

TOTAL 275

5

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006 [Turn over

6 The diagram below shows the examination results in O level Mathematics, by grades A, B, C, D

and E, of the candidates from two schools in 2004.

(i) State the name given to this type of diagram. [1]

There were 75 candidates from Camford School and 50 candidates from Oxbridge School.

(ii) Showing all your working, find which school had more candidates achieving a grade C in this

examination. [5]

0

20

40

60

Camford School Oxbridge School

80

100

A

B

C

D

E

A

B

C

D

E

Percentage

of candidates

6

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006

Section B [64 marks]

Answer not more than four of the questions 7 to 11.

Each question in this section carries 16 marks.

7 The pupils at a particular school may play either, both or neither of two sports, basketball and

tennis. Some of those who play each sport are chosen to represent the school in that sport. The

following table summarises the information about the pupils at the school this year.

(i) Interpret the value 9 in the above table. [2]

(ii) One pupil is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that this pupil

(a) plays basketball, but does not represent the school at that sport, [1]

(b) does not play basketball, [1]

(c) plays tennis. [2]

(iii) A pupil, chosen at random, is found to be one who represents the school at basketball.

Calculate the probability that this pupil does not play tennis. [3]

(iv) A pupil, chosen at random, is found to be one who does not play tennis. Calculate, to 3

significant figures, the probability that this pupil represents the school at basketball. [4]

(v) Two pupils are chosen at random. Calculate the probability that they both play both sports,

but do not represent the school at either sport. [3]

Tennis

Play and Play but do Do not TOTAL

represent the not represent play

school the school

Play and represent

the school

11 22 6 39

Basketball Play but do not

represent the school

26 325 41 392

Do not play 9 52 38 99

TOTAL 46 399 85 530

7

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006 [Turn over

8 A company which runs a large number of supermarkets has four categories of employee:

managerial, clerical, skilled manual and unskilled manual. The table below shows the wage rate,

in $ per hour, for each of the categories in 1999 and in 2004, together with weights which were

determined for the categories in 1999.

(i) Suggest two different factors which may have been used to determine the weights. [2]

(ii) Calculate wage rate relatives for 2004, taking 1999 as base year, for each of the four

categories of employee. [4]

(iii) Calculate a weighted aggregate wage rate index for 2004, taking 1999 as base year. [4]

The total wage bill for a particular one of the company's supermarkets in 1999 was $2.5 million.

(iv) Use the index calculated in (iii) to estimate, in $million and to 1 decimal place, the total wage

bill for this supermarket in 2004. [3]

(v) Suggest three reasons why the estimate obtained in (iv) may be very different from the actual

wage bill for the supermarket in 2004. [3]

Category Weight 1999 Wage rate 2004 Wage rate

($ per hour) ($ per hour)

Managerial 5 40 50

Clerical 12 22 26

Skilled manual 8 27 32

Unskilled manual 25 11 14

8

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006

9 A new housing estate contains three streets. Suppose you have been given the task of

interviewing a sample of the adult residents of the estate to find out their views on which public

facilities are most needed. Each resident has already been allocated a two-digit random number

and the following table summarises the information available to you.

Using this information, and the two-digit random number table below, you are to use different

methods to select a sample of size 9 from the residents.

Numbers outside the allocated range are to be ignored, and no resident may be selected more

than once in any one sample.

TWO-DIGIT RANDOM NUMBER TABLE

66 01 30 06 98 45 43 01 11 29 10 10 50 14 00 91

75 92 63 01 99 87 07 70 94 59 92 00 99 53 65 65

07 11 63 90 26 05 76 11 22 84 50 07 89 25 69 64

(i) (a) Starting at the beginning of the first row of the random number table, and moving along

the row, select a simple random sample of the required size. [2]

(b) State how many of the residents in the sample live in each of the three streets. [1]

(ii) A systematic sample is to be selected.

(a) Write down the smallest possible and largest possible two-digit numbers of the first

resident selected. [1]

The systematic sample is selected by starting at the beginning of the second row of the table,

and moving along the row.

(b) Write down the number of the first resident selected. [1]

(c) Write down the numbers of the other eight residents selected for the systematic sample.

[1]

Name of street Number of adult Random numbers

residents allocated

Albion Road 40 00 39

Briony Avenue 30 40 69

Cherry Boulevard 20 70 89

9

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006 [Turn over

It is believed that the residents of the different streets may have differing views. A sample

stratified by street is therefore to be selected.

(iii) (a) State how many residents in each street would be selected for such a sample. [1]

(b) Starting at the beginning of the third row of the table, and moving along the row, select a

sample stratified by street. Use every number if the street to which it relates has not yet

been fully sampled. [3]

(iv) Compare the three samples you have selected as regards how accurately they represent the

residents of the different streets. [2]

An alternative method of obtaining the required views would be to sample a number of houses and

then interview one resident from each chosen house.

(v) (a) Give one advantage and one disadvantage of using this method, rather than sampling

residents individually. [2]

(b) Two suggestions for selecting the one resident to be interviewed from each chosen

house are: to call at the house and interview whoever answers the door, and to

telephone and interview whoever answers the phone. Give one criticism of each of these

suggestions. [2]

10

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006

10 The Information Centre in a winter sports resort has kept records of how many enquiries (in

thousands) it received during each four-monthly period for the years 2001 to 2004. These records

are summarised in the following table.

(i) (a) State why there is no need to centre moving average values for these data. [1]

(b) Calculate, to 1 decimal place, the appropriate moving average values for these data.

Present your results in a suitable tabular form. [7]

(ii) On graph paper, using a scale of 1 cm per four-month period on the horizontal (short) axis,

and a scale of 2 cm to 500 enquiries, starting at 8000 enquiries, on the vertical (long) axis,

plot the moving average values you have calculated. [You are not required to plot the original

data.] [3]

(iii) Draw a trend line through the points you have plotted. [1]

The seasonal components for these data are summarised in the following table.

(iv) Calculate the value of q. [2]

(v) Use your trend line, and the appropriate seasonal component, to estimate the number of

enquiries received during the period January April 2005. [2]

Year Jan Apr May Aug Sep Dec

2001 7.5 3.8 15.4

2002 9.1 4.4 18.3

2003 9.3 5.2 17.5

2004 10.9 6.2 19.0

Jan Apr May Aug Sep Dec

Seasonal component 0.9 q 6.6

11

4040/02/O/N/06 UCLES 2006

11 Chantelle and Maryann each roll an unbiased cubical dice with faces numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Every time they roll their dice, the score, X, is the difference between the numbers shown on the

faces which land uppermost. If the numbers on the faces are unequal, the difference is always

calculated as being equal to the larger number minus the smaller number.

(i) Copy and complete the following table, inserting, in each cell in the table, the appropriate

value of X. [2]

(ii) List the six possible values which X can take. [1]

(iii) Tabulate the possible values of X and their probabilities. [6]

Chantelle and Maryann consider playing a number of different games.

Game 1: If the value of X is odd, Chantelle wins the game. If it is even (including 0) then Maryann

wins.

(iv) Explain why Game 1 is fair. [1]

Game 2: If the value of X is less than 3, Chantelle gives Maryann $1. If the value of X is 3 or more,

Maryann gives Chantelle $2.

(v) Explain why Game 2 is fair. [2]

Game 3: If the numbers on the two dice are equal, Chantelle wins. If the numbers on the two dice

are unequal, Chantelle gives Maryann a number of dollars equal to the value of X.

(vi) Calculate, in dollars, and to 2 decimal places, the amount which Maryann must give to

Chantelle if the numbers are equal, in order to make this game fair. [4]

1 2 3 4 5 6

1

2

3

4

5

6

12

4040/02/O/N/06

BLANK PAGE

Permission to reproduce items where third-party owned material protected by copyright is included has been sought and cleared where possible. Every

reasonable effort has been made by the publisher (UCLES) to trace copyright holders, but if any items requiring clearance have unwittingly been included, the

publisher will be pleased to make amends at the earliest possible opportunity.

University of Cambridge International Examinations is part of the University of Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicate (UCLES), which is itself a department of

the University of Cambridge.

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