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Decision Support for Management

Out Line

This report, based on the investigations carried out in Karachi state of Sindh,
Pakistan.Pakistan to control population problem by the using of system dynamics model.
So the
problem is population grow thing in the city of Karachi state of Sindh country Pakistan.


Table of Contents:

 Objectives(outcomes)
 Introduction (formulation of the problems)
 What is System Dynamics Diagrams
 Diagram of system dynamic
 Growth in population
 problems
 What is Causal Lop Diagram
 Diagram of causal loop
 Reinforcing loop
 Balancing loop
 Stock diagram with flow(SDF)
 Equations .mathematical solution.

Learning Outcomes

 To understand the problems of that city (A) and apply the control programmed
 investigate the condition of county Economically
 Analyze situation Business-wise
 Relate the system dynamic (SD) for the problem
 using causal loop diagram
 Develop understanding about educational problems.
 Highlighting the problem of poverty.
 With the help of system diagram solve the problems
 Opinions of the people
 Expression of the programs about family planning.


Formulation of the problems
Introduction
Background of the problem:

Human being is the basic element of the society .utilization of this key element makes a
society strong and developed. When the number of people exceeds a limit it becomes the
problem .it effects on the society negatively. Governments who are responsible for the
wellbeing of the society face many problems because of these problems, Use of (S D)
system dynamic tool…
In our case study city Karachi the biggest city of Pakistan was facing a huge change which
was raped increase of population.by using a tool system dynamic we will able to
understand the problem of increasing population and able to sort out the solution. We will
develop a formula to control population.
Every member of the society need basic facilities like food, education, health, transport,
good living, and entertainment etc.… government is responsible to provide it. (Jackson,
2000).

Introduction of the city Karachi:

Near Arabian Sea the city of Karachi is located it’s in south of Pakistan. Its lager then
honking,
Capital of a major province of Pakistan Sindh according to April 2012 population of this
city is 21 million 6000 per square.
It is not only heavily populated city in Pakistan but in world the number as a urban
agglomeration is 10
th
.karachi is the hub of all major activities which are back bone of a
country like economic, financial, entertainment, arts, skills, all major research areas.in the
Muslim world and south Asia educationally importance of Karachi is well known to
everybody. Before 1960 Karachi was capital of Pakistan. Two important and major ports
are also with Karachi. Trade activities for the whole Pakistan and for other countries like
China, Afghanistan and for NATO forces in Afghanistan are running from this important
city. [URL1]

Reason of selection of this problem:

Is demographic system is a main examples in this system so why do I use it?
(Background)

a) In most of the cases the system can be assumed to be separate in nature, talking about
demographic system is easy to understand and a common person can know about it and
with the results can take benefits easily.
b) This is all about people who are living and all basic need are there requirements they
can understand issues and there solutions.

What is System Dynamic...?

It’s an approach to high light the problem and then it gives results to overcome the
problems with clear results …

1. System dynamic is an approach to considerate the nature of a difficult structures
2. It is about interior response circles(loops)
3. Time deferments which disturb the performance of the entire system.[1]
4. It help to evaluate the feedback and give more clear outcomes to develop better
understanding about problems and sort out their solutions.
5. These essentials assistance how even apparently simple systems display mysterious
nonlinearity. [URL 5]





















(Fig.1)




(Fig 1.1)

The Rational Fundamentals of Speedy Population:
There are so many elements which are plying their role in the frequent and speedy
growth of population.
It can be divided in to two groups.
@Micro reasons and @Macro reasons…

1. @ Micro reasons:
 Population increase
 Birth ration
 Lack of awareness about outcomes of over population
 Unawareness of family planning
 Social behavior
 Lack of facilities
 Low income
 Housing problems
 Environmental problems
 Low saving
 problems in agriculture sector
 joblessness
 Poverty less resources (URL 4)

2. @ Macro reason:

where there are some small reasons are taking their part in increase of population some
main reason are also contributing their role.

Population

Deficiency

redundancy

Lack of
education
Financial
situation
Approach



 (a) Inadequacy
 (b)child labor (less educated society, increase in crime, increase in poverty, lack of
skills, hand to mouth situation, depending on others)
 (c) Idleness (lack of jobs)
 (d) Economy(bad economy, high inflation rate, lack of facilities, low growth,)
(a)Poverty &child labor
(Business / Commerce) the full-time employment of children below a minimum age
laid down by statute. [URL 6]

When number of family member increase only 1 person earn and others only utilize it
creates problems. And results which are commonly seeming in the city of Karachi are
child labour.to earn for the family and as well for their basic needs they are forced to earn
in the age of learning.it is not only bad for the child but for the society as well. Illratracy
rate goes high and crime rate also goes high. Automatically ratio of well educated .skilled
person will not able to seem in future.

(b) Redundancy
Major problem is unavailability of job: Job is not available in the city this is the biggest
problem. Because of lack of resources running business is also not easily possible. Growth
rate of population is 1.9%.it is highest rate. With limited resources jobs are not easily
available. Increase in unemployment is going high and high.it is also playing important
role in the increase of population.

(c) Economic conduction:
Economy level is low: When manpower is rapidly increasing it is not meant that the
number of jobs is also increasing. On a certain level it goes against the facts. Most of the
sector is over loaded and not able to produce more places for peoples. On second hand
people are increasing they need same level and quality of living. Which economy is failed
to provide. Karachi is net contributor of the country with the ratio of 1.5%.

@ Population level:
In our case study where over population of Karachi is major problem. level is called
system in expression of system dynamics .level is presenting population rate in numbers
in the city of karachi.by knowing the ratio of population growth in a year we can measure
the increase rate in future or coming year. For this calculation we need birth rate and death
ratio as well.
City...A
Year...t
Birth...B
Death...D
B
b = ----
A
Those who died in the city by d are showing. Total number of population is died by D.
D
B = --------
A
After calculating birth rate and the death rate we are able to understand the difference and
can able to get the ratio of population for coming year.
When birth rate with death rate calculated for a year t, then the number of population in
the city next year will be available.

A (t+1) =A(t)+B-D
=A (t)+b.A(t)-d.A(t)
=A (t) (1+b-d) (1)
Birth B and Death D are called variables in the System Dynamics terms, constant are the
birth rate y and death rate d. In system dynamic we are able to change, level unpredictable
through rate variable. Rate variable cannot change another rate variable.

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)( Topics in systems dynamics
In system dynamic important elements are feedback, flows and delays of time.
As a diagram of system dynamics, visualize an issue which plans to present an inventive
new strong customer item for consumption. Issue require to understand the possible
dynamics to design advertising and manufacture tactics
The causal loop diagram of the new product introduction may look as follows)
two types of diagrams which are related the Equation (1) is shown realistically.
1. Causal Diagram
2. Stock and Flow Diagram .


(Fig.2)


This is a causal diagram. Baby birth number is shown (A)
This loop diagram above can we see and read follow.

Positiv loop:
In this diagram the number of baby birth in the city(A) causes increase in population and
higher number of population causes higher number of birth.it is called positive feedback
loop .it is with the orange color,

Number of people who die is a function of population. Higher the number of population,
higher the number of death people.

Negative loop:
Higher numbers of death peoples in the city will effect into reduce the number of
population. This part of loop is called negative feedback loop.

@Balancing loop

@Reinforcing loop:

By using casual loop we are able to see to important things which are positive and negative.
When we make the causal loop diagram then we see the two main point shows us the one
called is (+) positive and the second is (-) negative. In this loop diagram we collect the
feedback from the sing of birth and the death focusing on the original factors about the
loop. For example in the causal diagram above we have two feedback loops. Birth and
Population make one feedback loop while Death and Population make the second
feedback loop.

Problems statement:
There is lot of problems in the city of A and also city have faced many challenges to stop
the increasing of population and the birth rate also. City government has manage the
proper family planning system for their people but the people of that city is not
cooperative the reason is that mostly people are illiterate (uneducated).Here is the problem
for the government.

Diagram of stock and flow (SFD):
In the diagram is (SFD) represented equation of the population (1) with the help of stock
and flow diagram.it was anticipated in 1971 by Mr W.Forrester.

X (t+1) =A(o)+B-D
=A (o)+b.A(o)-d.A(o)
=A(o)(1+b-d) (1)

A= Population (over all)
B=birth ratio
D=death ratio
t= Yearly base ratio

*flow diagram about equation is demonstrated below.


(Fig.3)

According to this (SDF) Stock and flow diagram we see that the diagram shows causal
connection of the level and rates and constants in a system. When we compare this (SDF)
with causal diagram then does not differentiate rate from level and constant, this diagram
(SDF) differentiate the three variables. Sometimes, it also distinguish what kind of flow is
moving in the diagram (whether it is physical material, goods, equipment, people, actual
things or abstract things such as information, decision, money, order etc.) in the arrow
link.

Mathematical Equations & Numerical Example
For understanding this simple numerical example to the equation (1). Equation..

A(t+1) =A(t)+B-D
=A(t)+b.A(t)-d.A(t)
=A(t)(1+b-d)(1)
For example, the birth rate 9%
The death rate 3%
Time 0 the population is 300 thousand.
It can be seen…...


= Expected rate * 100
Current rate (Total rate) e.g. ( 3% * 100 )
9%

Conclusion:

For analyzing the various methods and to check there results we use system dynamic
model .it is use full and gives good results to understand main problem and explain how
to solve it.in our problem of overpopulation it helps to clarify overall population it
effects and outcomes .it also explain the results of various effects of population.
To analyze the stench among various method model of system dynamic is used.it help
to obtain the results.it has different effect on different maters of population like family
planning.

References

 URL 1: Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachi Last accessed: [22
nd

August, 2012]
 Michael C. Jackson (2000) System Approaches to Management p 148 C-6
 URL 2: For Equations http://www.docstoc.com/docs/5624509/Stock--
Flow-Diagrams Last accessed: [22
nd
August, 2012]
 URL 3 :www.people.revoledu.com/kardi/tutorial/.../index.html Last accessed:
[23
rd
August, 2012]
 URL 4: http://ilm.com.pk/pakistan/pakistan-issues/major-problems-of-pakistan
Last accessed: [23
rd
August, 2012]
 URL 5: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics Last accessed: [21st
August, 2012]
 URL 6: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/child+labour Last accessed: [22
nd

August, 2012]
 System Dynamics method of population (Google search)
 System Dynamics Tutorial