47%

22%
17%
7% 7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Bera Ose Birman Emken Undecided
Bera in First Place, Followed by Ose and Birman
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Christina Coloroso, CCC irector o! "ar#etin# and $nal%tics
RE: C$&07' (e)*+licans Ose and Birman in "o*#h ,i#ht !or Primar% ,inish
DATE: -a% ., 2014


/hile emocratic (e)resentati0e $mi Bera maintains a commandin# lead amon# likel% )rimar% election
0oters in Cali!ornia1s 7
th
Con#ressional istrict, (e)*+lican challen#ers o*# Ose and I#or Birman are
locked in a to*#h !i#ht !or second )lace !inish, accordin# to the CCC1s latest I2( s*r0e% o! likel% )rimar%
0oters3 Birman1s stron# )ersonal !a0ora+ilities mean that a last&min*te )*sh to #ro4 his )ro!ile 4ith
0oters co*ld )ro)el him )ast Ose and on to the #eneral election3

/hen asked 4hich candidate
0oters are likel% to s*))ort in the
5*ne 3
rd
o)en )rimar% election,
emocratic (e)resentati0e $mi
Bera dra4s more s*))ort than all
three (e)*+lican candidates
com+ined 647% s*))ort7, a si#nal
o! his stron#, earl% standin# amon#
0oters headin# into the #eneral
election3 (e)*+lican o*# Ose
!inishes in second )lace 4ith 22%
s*))ort, !ollo4ed closel% +%
(e)*+lican I#or Birman 617%
s*))ort7 and (e)*+lican Eli8a+eth
Emken 67% s*))ort73 5*st 7% o!
0oters remain *ndecided3

9o4e0er, Birman is the (e)*+lican challen#er 4ith the most room !or #ro4th3 Onl% hal! o! likel% 0oters
650%7 are !amiliar 4ith Birman, com)ared to 74% name reco#nition !or Ose3 -ore im)ortantl%, 0oters
4ho are !amiliar eno*#h 4ith Birman to !orm an o)inion a+o*t him 0ie4 him more )ositi0el% than
ne#ati0el%, 4hile 0oters !amiliar 4ith Ose are e0enl% di0ided3 "his indicates that as additional 0oters #et
to kno4 Birman in the remainin# 4eeks, his rate o! s*))ort is likel% to im)ro0e and he ma% s*r)ass Ose
in o0erall s*))ort3 Birman alread% leads Ose +% : )oints amon# %o*n#er )rimar% 0oters, and 2 )oints
amon#Inde)endent; "< 0oters = a solid !o*ndation !rom 4hich he ma% stand to #ain in the closin#
4eeks3

"he (e)*+lican nominee 4ill !ace (e)resentati0e $mi Bera in the >o0em+er #eneral election3
(e)resentati0e 4on C$&07 in 2012 4ith 53% o! the 0ote, and +oth the (othen+er# (e)ort and ?arr%
<a+ato rate this district as a @?ean emA seat3


These results are based on a survey of 567 likely primary election voters conducted May 1-2, 201 in
!alifornia"s 7
th
!on#ressional $istrict% &espondents" information came from the voter file and respondents
'ere intervie'ed over the phone via an automated ()*&+ survey% The mar#in of error for this survey is
appro,imately %1-%