k=1
exp
_
c
k
_
1
c
k
__
exp
_
k=1
c
k
+
k=1
c
2
k
2
_
exp
_
c lnn +
c
2
2
6
_
= A
c
n
c
0 as n
where A
c
= exp
_
c
2
2
6
_
.
(b) On one hand, by the upper bound on a
n
found in part (a), for c > 1,
n=1
a
n
A
c
n=1
n
c
A
c
_
1 +
_
1
u
c
du
_
=
cA
c
c 1
< +
On the other hand, if 0 < c 1, by fact (i),
_
1 +
c
k
_
1
exp
_
c
k
_
for any k 1, so, applying fact
(iv), a
n
exp
_
n
k=1
c
k
_
exp(c(1 + lnn)) = (ne)
c
. Therefore, for 0 < c 1,
n=1
a
n
n=1
(ne)
c
_
1
(ue)
c
du = +
2 Convergence of alternating series
(a) For n 0, let I
n
denote the interval with endpoints s
n
and s
n+1
. It suces to show that
I
0
I
1
I
2
. If n is even, then I
n
= [s
n+1
, s
n+1
+ b
n+1
] [s
n+1
, s
n+1
+ b
n+2
] = I
n+1
.
Similarly, if n is odd, I
n
= [s
n+1
b
n+1
, s
n+1
] [s
n+1
b
n+2
, s
n+1
] = I
n+1
. So in general, for any
n, I
n
I
n+1
.
(b) Given > 0, let N
be so large that b
N
< . It remains to prove that s
n
s
m
 whenever
n N
and m N
2
k
=
2
=
2
3
. The CDF of X
k
is given by
F
k
(c) = P
_
X
k
k
_
=
_
c
k
_
, where is the standard normal CDF. Since is a continuous
1
function, it follows that F
k
converges pointwise to the CDF F
(c) = (
c
), so that (X
k
) converges
in distribution with the limit having the N(0,
2
) distribution.
The sequence does not converge in p. Let > 0. Consider P{D
k
 } where D
k
= X
k+1
X
k
.
By the recursion, D
k
=
X
k
+W
k
2
X
k
=
W
k
X
k
2
. D
k
is a Gaussian random variable and Var(D
k
) =
2
+
2
k
4
2
4
. Therefore, P{D
k
 } = P{
2D
k

} 2Q(
2
) > 0. So P{D
k
 } 0 as
k so P{X
n
X
m
 } 0 as m, n . That is, (X
n
) is not a Cauchy sequence in
probability, and hence does not converge in probability. The sequence thus also does not converge
in the a.s. or m.s. sense.
4 A cumulative lottery
(a) For n xed, the possible values of Y
n
are {1, 2, 4, . . . , 2
n
}.
P{Y
n
= 2
n
} = P{B
1
= = B
n
= 0} = (1 p)
n
P{Y
n
= 2
k
} = P{B
nk
= 1 and B
nk+1
= = B
n
= 0} = p(1 p)
k
for 0 k n 1
(b) Let 1 c < 2
n
. The largest integer k such that 2
k
c is k = log
2
c. Therefore, F
n
(c) =
p +p(1 p) +p(1 p)
2
+ +p(1 p)
log
2
c
or
F
n
(c) =
_
_
_
0 c < 1
1 (1 p)
log
2
c+1
1 c 2
n
1 c 2
n
Therefore, F
n
(c) F(c) as n for all c, (i.e. F
n
converges pointwise to F) where
F(c) =
_
0 c < 1
1 (1 p)
log
2
c+1
c 1
That is, if Y has the limit CDF F, then Y has the representation Y = 2
R1
, where R is a geo
metrically distributed random variable with parameter p, and represents the number of days since
there was a winner.
(c) No, (Y
n
) does not converge in p. because, for example, it is not Cauchy in probability because
P{Y
n
Y
n1
 1} P{B
n
= 0} = 1 p for all n 1.
5 Convergence and robustness of the sample median
(a) We show that Y
n
a.s.
c
< c
1
,
P{Y
n
c
1
for all n suciently large} = 1 (1)
P{Y
n
c
0
for all n suciently large} = 1 (2)
Since c
c
1
(1+u
2
)
du
2
c
1
u
2
du =
2
c
. By the result of part
(b) with n = 1, P{Y
1
 c} 8
_
2
c
_
2
=
32
(c)
2
. Thus,
E[Y
1
] =
_
0
P{Y
1
 c}dc 1 +
_
1
P{Y
1
 c}dc 1 +
_
1
32
(c)
2
dc 1 +
32
2
.
6 Some tilted distributions associated with large deviations
(a) For and xed, the function f
(x) is proportional to e
x
e
x
= e
()x
as a function of x
for x 0. That is possible if and only if < < , and for such , f
(x) is proportional to
exp
_
(x )
2
2
+x
_
which is proportional to
exp
_
x
2
2( +
2
)x
2
2
_
.
Such a pdf exists for any R, and it is the N( +
2
,
2
) density.
(c) For and p xed, the pmf p
(k) is proportional to (1 p)
k
e
k
(same as ((1 p)e
)
k
) for k 1,
which gives a valid pmf if (1 p)e
.
(d) For , n and p xed, the pmf p
(k) is proportional to
_
n
k
_
_
pe
1p
_
k
whereas a binomial distribution
with parameters n and p is proportional to
_
n
k
_
_
p
1 p
_
k
. The pmf p
1 p
,
or, equivalently, p =
pe
1p+pe
=0
= p.
3
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