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Investment Research General Market Conditions

Market movers today
We expect todays ECB meeting to be another wait-and-see one without any new
easing measures, see ECB Preview: Wait-and-see until June, 5 May 2014. Mario
Draghi is expected to continue to sound very dovish as inflation in April again was
below ECBs expectations, EUR/USD continues to edge higher and bank lending
remained subdued in March. However, the ECB is expected to refrain to at least June
when it will release revised economic forecasts.
Todays Bank of England (BoE) meeting is expected to be close to a non-event
with no one expecting any change in either BOEs target for its asset purchase
program or the bank rate. The inflation report next week will be much more
interesting as it could signal a shift towards an earlier rate hike in light of the recent
strong data.
The data calendar is relatively light today. In Germany the weaker-than-expected
industrial orders released yesterday suggest downside risk to todays industrial
production for March.
The Norges Bank rate announcement is due at 10:00 CET. We expect rates and
signals to be left unchanged. For more on Scandi markets see page 2.
Selected market news
Chinas export in April increased faster than expected driven primarily by stronger
exports to Europe and the US. Exports in April increased 0.9% y/y after declining 6.6%
y/y in March and imports also improved slightly by 0.8% y/y in April. It should be
remembered that particularly Chinas export data are currently distorted by over-
invoicing of exports last year, which weighs substantially on the year-on-year growth in
exports. Adjusting for this impact our calculations show that Chinas exports in April
were up a healthy 8.6% y/y driven by exports to Europe and the US, suggesting some
support to the Chinese economy.
In the hearing to the Joint Economic Committee in the US Congress, Fed chairman
Janet Yellen continued a soft tone broadly in line with expectations. In prepared
remarks and in the Q&A, she indicated a generally upbeat outlook for growth, albeit
cautious about housing, and projected an acceleration of activity this year. Her prepared
remarks on monetary policy did not deviate from the message given in last week's FOMC
statement and she dodged any attempts to attach more specific guidance on the timing of
the first rate hike, see US - Fed chair Janet Yellen strikes a soft tone as expected, 7 May
2014.
President Vladimir Putin yesterday shifted his tone on Ukraine, calling on separatists
to postpone an autonomy vote planned on 11 May and saying that Russian forces had
withdrawn from the countrys border, though the US said it saw no evidence of a
pullback. Putin also expressed support for Ukraines plan to hold a nationwide
presidential election on 25 May, which Russia had previously opposed (see BBC).


Market overview

Note:
* The iTraxx Europe Index shows the spread
development for the most liquid investment grade CDS
contracts in the euro credit market.

**The iTraxx Europe Crossover show the spread
development of the most liquid non-investment grade
CDS contracts in the euro credit market.

***The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade
Index shows the spread development for the most
liquid investment grade CDS contracts in the US credit
market.
Source: Bloomberg

Selected readings from Danske Bank
Todays key points
US - Fed chair Janet Yellen strikes
a soft tone as expected
ECB Preview: Wait-and-see until
June
DKK: Nationalbanken preview
[Text]

08 May 2014

Analyst
Anders Vestergrd Fischer
+45 45 13 66 41
afis@danskebank.dk
Danske Daily

07:30 1 day +/-,%
S&P500 (close) 1878.2 0.56
S&P500 fut (chng from close) 1874.5 0.02
Nikkei 14189.6 1.11
Hang Seng 21864.0 0.54
17:00 07:30 +/-, bp
US 2y gov 0.40 0.39 -1.0
US 10y gov 2.60 2.62 2.1
iTraxx Europe (IG) 68 69 0.4
iTraxx Xover (Non IG) 270 272 1.3
+/-, %
EUR/USD 1.392 1.392 -0.04
USD/JPY 101.710 101.830 0.12
EUR/CHF 1.22 1.22 0.01
EUR/GBP 0.821 0.821 0.00
EUR/SEK 9.040 9.051 0.12
EUR/NOK 8.22 8.22 0.00
USD
Oil Brent, USD 107.5 108.0 0.45
Gold, USD 1296.7 1290.0 -0.52




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Danske Daily
Scandi markets
We do not expect any new signals from Norges Bank at todays rate setting meeting.
Since the last meeting and the March monetary policy report, the domestic economy, the
global economy and the krone have all performed largely as expected, while inflation has
been marginally higher than expected. At the same time, most banks have cut their
lending rates for both household and business customers. In isolation, this would point to
the central banks policy rate being raised earlier than previously indicated. Should,
against expectations, there be any new signals from Norges Bank, the risk is therefore on
the upside.
In Sweden the FSA will publish a memo on the future demand of capital ratios for
Swedish banks and the NDO will reveal how government balances developed in April.
Most interesting, however, will probably be Deputy Governor Skingsleys speech on
household indebtedness. We will be looking for comments on how Skingsley weighs
current deflationary tendencies against the continued angst about household debts.
Fixed income markets
The markets are priced for more ECB action but it seems the bets for further easing are
primarily placed at the June meeting. Hence, Draghi might be able to keep the markets in
check despite not easing further today. Overall we see risks skewed towards slightly
higher EUR rates.
In the euro govie market Spain and Ireland are coming to the market. Spain is tapping in
the 2017, 2020 and 2028 segments, while Ireland is tapping in the 2024 segment. The
Irish auction is the last before Q3 and the Irish Debt Office will have fulfilled almost 85%
of the funding requirement for 2014. Hence, we expect Ireland to regain some of the lost
ground against Spain and Italy, as Ireland is still well ahead in the reform process relative
to Spain and Italy. Furthermore, Spain is lagging on the issuance, as the Spanish Tesoro
has only fulfilled about 40% of this year's funding requirement.
FX markets
Despite a relatively soft tone from Fed President Janet Yellen, EUR/USD traded slightly
lower overnight. However, the cross remains less than a cent within the 1.40 level and the
euro might see further support as we do not expect the ECB to ease its monetary policy
today. Indeed, Draghi is likely to strike a dovish tone at the press conference but we doubt
that just talk will have a longer lasting effect on the euro and that it will change the
direction for EUR/USD. That said, the EONIA O/N fixing is now back above the
refinancing rate again after yesterdays liquidity operations. Thus, momentum in
EUR/USD is likely to fade as support to the euro from relative rates might ease in the
short term. All in all, however, we think that a test of the 1.40 level in EUR/USD seems
likely in the near term, especially if we break the strong resistance level at 1.3967 - the
2014 high.
We do not expect any new signals from Norges Bank at todays rate-setting meeting but
risks are, in our view, skewed to the upside in the event of new signals, as inflation has
been marginally higher than expected since the March monetary policy report. Hence, the
NOK might also get some support today.


US S&P500 future

Source: Danske Bank Markets


US 10y gov yield

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Global FX

Source: Danske Bank Markets


Scandi FX

Source: Danske Bank Markets

1856
1866
1876
1856
1866
1876
Tue Wed Fri Mon Tue Thu
2.51
2.61
2.71
2.51
2.61
2.71
Tue Wed Thu Mon Tue Thu
101.4
102
102.6
103.2
1.378
1.388
1.398
Tue Wed Fri Mon Tue Thu
EUR/USD(LHS) USD/JPY (RHS)
8.21
8.25
8.29
8.33
8.99
9.03
9.07
9.11
Tue Wed Fri Mon Tue Thu
EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS)




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Danske Daily

Key figures and events

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Thursday, May 8, 2014 Period Danske Bank Consensus Previous
- CHF SNB's Danthine speaks in Lausanne May
8:00 DEM Industrial production m/m|y/y Mar 0.2%| 0.20%|4.20% 0.40%|4.80%
9:15 CHF CPI m/m|y/y Apr 0.4%|0.0%
9:30 SEK Budget balance SEKbn Apr -2.9
10:00 NOK Industrial production y/y Mar 0.7%|5.2%
10:00 NOK Manufacturing Production m/m|y/y Mar 0.2%| 0.2%|2.1%
10:00 NOK Norges Banks monetary policy meeting % May 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
13:00 GBP BoE rate announcement % Apr 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
13:00 GBP BoE announces asset purchase target GBP bn May 375 375 375
13:25 USD Evans (voter, dovish) speaks
13:30 USD Fed's Tarullo (voter, neutral) speaks
13:45 EUR ECBannounces refi rate % 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
13:45 EUR ECBannounces deposit rate % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
14:30 EUR ECB's Draghi holds press conference
14:30 USD Initial jobless claims 1000 344




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Danske Daily
Todays market data: 08 May 2014

+/-
DJSTOXX50
Max 0.9 Max 0.9 OMXC20
Min -0.6 Min -0.9 OMXS30
0.4 0.5 OSE BX
+/-
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
1month 1month S&P500
Year-to-date Year-to-date NIKKEI (07:30)
EUR +/-
USD -0.06
JPY 0.09 1day
Max 140 GBP 0.00 1month
Min 139 NOK -0.04 Year-t-date
0.2 SEK 1.11
DKK 0.00
PLN 0.00
USD +/-
JPY 0.12 1day
1month GBP -0.08 1month
Year-to-date CHF 0.05 Year-t-date
+/-, bp
USD USD 10Y 2
Max 0.4 Max 2.6 EUR USD 30Y -1
Min 0.4 Min 2.6 GBP JPY 10Y 1
0 0 DKK
SEK +/-, bp
NOK DEM 10Y 2
PLN DKK 10Y 2
SEK 10Y 0
NOK 10Y 0
PLN 10Y -12
* As of closing previous trading day
3.00 Max 3.910 2.00 Max ####
0.00 Min -2.380 0.00 Min 0.000
+/-
USD 10Y
Europe (IG) 0 -3 JPY 10Y -3
HiVol -1 -9
Xover (N-IG) 0 -11 +/-
EUR 10Y
DKK 10Y -1
0 -8 SEK 10Y -1
Finan. Sub. 0 -8 NOK 10Y 0
Non-finan.
* As of closing previous trading day
* Ask price ** Ask price
-0.6%
1.4%
16519
1878
-0.7%
0.2%
0.7%
-0.3%
1.5%
1.18
Close
2968 0.3%
1.7%
696
4068
1343
0.6%
Close
1.72
0.22
Policy Rate
87.55
USD2Y USD10Y 0.25
3M
107.97 07:30
584
STOCKS
1.6% 14190 0.3%
FX & COMMODITIES
-3
87.60
17:00 07:30
101.71
169.65 169.57
101.83
Spread,
bp
07:30
17:00
141.60 141.69
746.42
822.26
418.92 418.92
746.42
1289.97
82.06
904.00
07:30
905.11
Gold, $
542.98
-0.16
0.30
0.05
Industrials
-2.83
CRB
1M future
CRB, Raw
9
139.21
84.32
-18.66
822.30
139.15
3.40
2.62
307.00
82.06
-0.27
17:00
2.60
10.24
-0.28
3.30
26.83
07:30
-0.98
YIELDS & INTEREST RATES
1.94
1.45
0.34 3.40
0.60 0.61 0.53
17:00
1.47
07:30(-1)* 16
07:30
Swap Spread, bp**
2.79
1.54 1.52
1.94
2.79
3.92
0
25
1.79
2.62 12
4.04
Finan. Sr.
1month
76
07:30
272
11
07:30(-1)*
87
17:00
69
0.20 0.36
0.25
0.50
0.91 0.75
16
3
Credit spread, iTraxx s. 11*
1day
29
2.50
1.50
25
17:00
8
45
Oil, Brent,
$
34
44
122 35
1.14
-0.87
1.19
0.47
1.54
0.07
0.47
1.31
2.45
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
USD JPY GBP FRF ITL DKKSEKNOKPLN
10Y Yield Spread to Germany
-2.4
-1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.6
2.6
3.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
USD2Y USD5Y USD10Y
US Yield Curve
D-t-D +/-, bp (right axis)
07:30 (left axis)
1 month ago (left axis)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
DEM2Y DEM5YR DEM10Y
GermanYield Curve
D-t-D +/-, bp(right axis)
07:30 (left axis)
1 month ago (left axis)
-0.60
-0.20
0.20
0.60
-0.60
-0.20
0.20
0.60
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
S&P500 Intraday, %
Grey line indicatesclosing of Danish markets
-0.9
-0.4
0.1
0.6
-0.90
-0.40
0.10
0.60
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Eurostoxx Intraday, %
Grey line indicatesopening of US markets
2.56
2.58
2.60
2.62
2.64
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.44
07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04
USD-YieldsIntraday
USD2Y
(lhs)
USD10
Y (rhs)
138.9
139.1
139.3
139.5
138.9
139.1
139.3
139.5
07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04
EUR/USD Intraday
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May Jun Aug Sep Nov Dec Feb Mar May
Credit spreads
iTraxx Europe (IG) (left axis)
iTraxx Xover (Non IG) (right axis)




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Danske Daily

Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (Danske
Bank).
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the
research report accurately reflect the research analysts personal view about the financial instruments and issuers
covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation
of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed
in the research report.
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to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske
Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority
(UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation
Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.
The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts
rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.
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Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-
quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske
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request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management
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Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes
investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate
finance or debt capital transactions.
Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report
Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology
as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be
obtained from the authors upon request.
Risk warning
Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis
of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.
Expected updates
Danske Daily is updated on a daily basis.
First date of publication
Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication. Price-related data is calculated
using the closing price from the day before publication.





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Danske Daily
General disclaimer
This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for
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