Bab 4 Probabilitas

Chap 4-1

Topik
Konsep dasar probabilitas
Sample spaces and events, simple probability, joint probability

Kondisi probabilitas
Statistical independence, marginal probability

Bayes’s Theorem

Chap 4-2

Topik
Binomial distribution Poisson distribution Hypergeometric distribution

(continued)

probabilitas of a discrete random variable

Chap 4-3

Ruang Sampel
Himpunan semua kemungkinan e.g.: All six faces of a die:

e.g.: All 52 cards in a deck:

Chap 4-4

Kejadian
Kejadian sederhana
Kartu merah dari sekumpulan kartu bridge

Kejadian yang saling terhubung
Kartu As yang berasal dari kartu merah dan kartu hitam

Chap 4-5

Probabilitas
Probabilitas menyatakan ukuran numerik dari suatu kejadian Bernilai antara 0 dan 1 Jumlah probabilitas seluruh kejadian 1
0 Impossible
Chap 4-6

1

Certain

.5

probabilitas dari kejadian E:
number of event outcomes P( E ) = total number of possible outcomes in the sample space X = e.g. P( ) = 2/36 T (There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4)

Chap 4-7

Probabilitas kejadian A dan B yang saling terhubung , : P(A and B) = P(A ∩ B) number of outcomes from both A and B = total number of possible outcomes in sample space

E.g. P(Red Card and Ace) 2 Red Aces 1 = = 52 Total Number of Cards 26
Chap 4-8

Tabel Probabilitas Kejadian yang saling terhubung
Event
Event
A1 A2 B1 B2

Total

P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1) P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2) P(B1) P(B2)

Total
Joint Probability

1

Marginal (Simple) Probability
Chap 4-9

Probabilitas kejadian , A or B: P( A or B) = P( A ∪ B)

number of outcomes from either A or B or both = total number of outcomes in sample space

E.g.

P (Red Card or Ace) 4 Aces + 26 Red Cards - 2 Red Aces = 52 total number of cards 28 7 = = 52 13
Chap 4-10

P(A1 or B1 ) = P(A1) + P(B1) - P(A1 and B1)
Event
Event
A1 A2 B1 B2

Total

P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1) P(A2 and B1) P(A2 and B2) P(A2) P(B1) P(B2)

Total

1

For Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Chap 4-11

The probabilitas kejadian B setelah kejadian A terjadi :

P( A and B) P( A | B) = P( B) E.g. P(Red Card given that it is an Ace) 2 Red Aces 1 = = 4 Aces 2
Chap 4-12

Color Type Ace Non-Ace Total
Red Black

Total 4 48 52

2 24 26

2 24 26

Revised Sample Space

P(Ace and Red) 2 / 52 2 P(Ace | Red) = = = P(Red) 26 / 52 26
Chap 4-13

Conditional probability:

P( A and B ) P( A | B) = P( B)
Penggandaan:

P ( A and B) = P( A | B) P ( B) = P( B | A) P ( A)
Chap 4-14

(continued)

Kejadian A dan B independent jika :

P ( A | B) = P( A) or P ( B | A) = P( B) or P ( A and B ) = P( A) P ( B)
Kejadian A dan B independen jika probabilitas kejadian A, tidak dipengaruhi oleh kejadian lain
Chap 4-15

Bayes’s Theorem
P ( A | Bi ) P ( Bi ) P ( Bi | A ) = P ( A | B1 ) P ( B1 ) + • • • + P ( A | Bk ) P ( Bk ) P ( Bi and A ) = P ( A)
Same Event

Adding up the parts of A in all the B’s
Chap 4-16

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