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D4.

2
Software Design



TELL ME - Transparent communication in Epidemics: Learning Lessons from
experience, deliering effectie Messages, proiding Eidence.
!ro"ect co-funded #$ t%e European &ommission wit%in t%e '
t%
(ramewor)
!rogramme * +E,LT+ t%eme

2nd -eporting period
.!4 ,gent /ased Social Simulation

-esponsi#le !artner: S0--E1

Due date of t%e deliera#le: M22 3(e#ruar$ 24
t%
25647
,ctual su#mission date: M22 3(e#ruar$ 24
t%
25647

Dissemination leel: !0

D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

2

Document Management


D4.2 8Software Design9

Tas): 4.2

Leader: SURREY * :t%er contri#utors: none



!-:;E&T (0LL T<TLE

Transparent communication in Epidemics: Learning Lessons from
experience, deliering effectie Messages, proiding Eidence.
!-:;E&T ,&-:=1M TELL ME
&olla#oratie !ro"ect funded under T%eme +E,LT+.2566.2.>.>->
8Deelopment of an eidence-#ased #e%aioural and communication
pac)age to respond to ma"or epidemics out#rea)s9
?-,=T ,?-EEME=T 2'4'2>
ST,-T<=? D,TE 56@52@2562
D0-,T<:= >A mont%s
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

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Table of Contents
EE!"T#$E S"MMA%& ........................................................................................................................................ '
( #ntro)*ction ................................................................................................................................................ 7
(.( %o+e of t,e si-*+ation -o)e+ in TELL ME .......................................................................................... 7
(.2 .,at /*estion is t,e -o)e+ to answer0 ........................................................................................... 7
(.3 A)1ancing -o)e++ing of 2e,a1io*r )*ring epi)e-ics ....................................................................... 8
2 Arc,itect*re ..............................................................................................................................................(3
2.( Agent45ase) Mo)e++ing ................................................................................................................... (3
2.2 Mo)e+ entities.................................................................................................................................. (3
2.3 Mo)e+ software ............................................................................................................................... ((
3 #nterface ...................................................................................................................................................(2
3.( #np*t: !o--*nication p+an ............................................................................................................. (2
3.(.( Message +ang*age ................................................................................................................... (3
3.(.2 E6a-p+e p+ans .......................................................................................................................... ('
3.(.3 %esponses to e-erging pro2+e-s ........................................................................................... (7
3.2 #np*t: Epi)e-ic sit*ation ................................................................................................................ (7
3.3 8*tp*t: Si-*+ation res*+ts .............................................................................................................. (7
4 Mo)e+ +ogic ...............................................................................................................................................(9
4.( 5roa) -o)e+ +ogic ............................................................................................................................ (9
4.2 Si-*+ating t,e protecti1e 2e,a1io*r of in)i1i)*a+s ........................................................................ 23
4.2.( T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r .................................................................................................. 23
4.2.2 <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ ................................................................................................................. 2(
4.2.3 ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor: ................................................................................................. 2(
4.2.4 !o-2ining ps:c,o+ogica+ t,eories ........................................................................................... 22
4.2.' 8perationa+ising in)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r..................................................................................... 23
4.3 Si-*+ating t,e inp*ts to in)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r ................................................................................ 23
4.3.( 8perationa+ising attit*)e......................................................................................................... 24
4.3.2 8perationa+ising tr*st .............................................................................................................. 2'
4.3.3 8perationa+ising s*2jecti1e nor-s .......................................................................................... 2'
4.3.4 8perationa+ising t,reat ........................................................................................................... 27
4.4 Si-*+ating epi)e-ic progress ......................................................................................................... 27
4.4.( %egiona+ SE#% -o)e+ ................................................................................................................ 27
4.4.2 #nf+*ence of protecti1e 2e,a1io*r ........................................................................................... 27
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' Data So*rces an) !a+i2ration ...................................................................................................................28
'.( !a+i2ration ....................................................................................................................................... 28
'.2 Sensiti1it: ana+:sis ........................................................................................................................... 33
7 ;articipation an) $a+i)ation .....................................................................................................................33
7.( S*2ject -atter e6pertise ................................................................................................................. 33
7.2 <ea+t, professiona+ foc*s gro*p testing .......................................................................................... 3(
7.3 "ti+it: ............................................................................................................................................... 3(
7.4 =ace or concept*a+ 1a+i)it: .............................................................................................................. 32
7.' $erification ...................................................................................................................................... 33
7.7 E-pirica+ or operationa+ 1a+i)it: ..................................................................................................... 33
7.7 $a+i)ation s*--ar:: A++ocation of responsi2i+it:............................................................................ 34
7 De1e+op-ent an) App+ication ..................................................................................................................34
7.( De1e+op-ent p+an ........................................................................................................................... 34
7.2 ;ro-*+gation an) ana+:sis p+an ....................................................................................................... 3'
!8>!L"S#8>S A>D %E!8MME>DAT#8>S ......................................................................................................37
5#5L#8G%A;<& ..................................................................................................................................................37



D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
T,e socia+ si-*+ation co-ponent of t,e TELL ME project ?.;4@ starte) in =e2r*ar: 23(3. T,is secon)
report )etai+s t,e inten)e) )esign of t,e si-*+ation -o)e+. T,e -o)e+ arc,itect*re an) 1a+i)ation criteria
were presente) in t,e pre1io*s report ?D4.( re+ease) in A*g*st 23(3@. To pro1i)e for an integrate) an)
in)epen)ent )esign )oc*-entA t,at ear+ier -ateria+ is a+so inc+*)e) in t,is report. T,*s report D4.2
s*perse)es report D4.(.
T,e o2jecti1e of t,e TELL ME si-*+ation -o)e+ is to pro1i)e g*i)ance for ,ea+t, a*t,orities a2o*t t,e
effecti1eness of )ifferent co--*nication p+ans 2eforeA )*ring an) after an inf+*enBa epi)e-ic. As t,e
o2jecti1e of s*c, co--*nication is to +i-it t,e i-pact of t,e epi)e-icA t,e -o)e+ -*st connect propose)
p+ans to epi)e-ic progress.
T,is )esign )oc*-ent )escri2es a two +a:er si-*+ation. 8ne +a:er consists of si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s t,at
recei1e co--*nication -essagesA a)j*st t,eir attit*)es accor)ing+:A percei1e t,eir sit*ation an) -aCe
)ecisions a2o*t w,et,er to a)opt ?or cease@ protecti1e 2e,a1io*r. T,is 2e,a1io*r is fo*n)e) on a ,:2ri)
ps:c,o+ogica+ -o)e+ t,at inc+*)es attit*)esA s*2jecti1e nor-s an) percei1e) t,reat. T,e ot,er +a:er is a
spatia+ epi)e-ic si-*+ation. T,e +a:ers interact wit, eac, ot,erD epi)e-ic progress is t,e -ajor e+e-ent of
an in)i1i)*a+Es percei1e) t,reatA w,ic, affects t,eir 2e,a1io*r c,oicesA an) t,e a)option of protecti1e
2e,a1io*r affects t,e force of infection ?t,ro*g, trans-issi2i+it:@ of t,e epi)e-ic.
T,e si-*+ation is to 2e )e1e+ope) in >etLogoA a specia+ist agent42ase) -o)e++ing app+ication. T,is wi++
ena2+e -o)e+ *sers to inp*t co--*nication p+ans an) a+so to -anip*+ate ot,er para-eters t,at are
re+e1ant for p+anningA s*c, as t,e co*ntr: to 2e consi)ere) an) t,e reco1er: rate for t,e )isease. T,e
co--*nication p+an wi++ 2e inp*t to t,e -o)e+ wit, a for-a+ise) +ang*age t,at capt*res Ce: e+e-ents of
-essage contentA )e+i1er: c,anne+A target gro*p an) ti-ing ?see section 3.(@. T,e o*tp*ts of t,e -o)e+ wi++
report epi)e-ic infor-ation ?s*c, as inci)ence an) pre1a+ence o1er ti-e@ an) a)option rates of
1accination an) ot,er protecti1e 2e,a1io*r.
T,e connection an) -*t*a+ inf+*ence of t,e co--*nicationA persona+ protecti1e 2e,a1io*r an) epi)e-ic
progress is a s*2stantia+ t,eoretica+ a)1ance o1er e6isting -o)e+s ?see section (.3@. T,e Ce: 2enefit of t,e
TELL ME si-*+ation is to assist ,ea+t, a*t,orities to *n)erstan) t,eir co-p+e6 )ecision -aCing en1iron-ent
an) sti-*+ate a 2roa) perspecti1e.
<owe1erA )ata are not a1ai+a2+e to acc*rate+: para-eterise t,e -o)e+ ?see section '@. T,at isA t,e -o)e+
wi++ not 2e s*fficient+: precise an) acc*rate to )irect+: co-pare potentia+ co--*nication p+ans.
>e1ert,e+essA it can a+so g*i)e f*t*re )ata co++ection effortsA t,e str*ct*re is 2ase) on re+e1ant
ps:c,o+ogica+ t,eories an) t,e -o)e+ para-eters can 2e a)j*ste) as -ore )ata 2eco-es a1ai+a2+e.
T,e TELL ME -o)e+ wi++ 2e assesse) against fo*r 2roa) t:pes of tests ?see section 7@:
"ti+it:: Does t,e -o)e+ -eet t,e re/*ire-ents of t,e project0
=ace or concept*a+ 1a+i)it:: Are t,e -o)e+ )esign an) res*+ts consistent wit, t,eor: an) p+a*si2+e0
$erification: #s t,e )esign appropriate+: trans+ate) into -o)e+ co)e0
E-pirica+ or operationa+ 1a+i)it:: Do t,e -o)e+ res*+ts -atc, a1ai+a2+e )ata0
Aspects of t,is 1a+i)ation are to 2e con)*cte) 2: )ifferent gro*psA wit, -*+tip+e assess-ent w,ere
possi2+e. T,e fo*r gro*ps are t,e -o)e++ers ?principa++: for tec,nica+ testing@A TELL ME project partnersA
ot,er s*2ject -atter e6perts an) ,ea+t, professiona+ foc*s gro*ps. T,e ot,er s*2ject -atter e6perts
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inc+*)e go1ern-ent an) aca)e-ic representati1es wit, e6pertise in ,ea+t, co--*nicationA epi)e-io+og:
-anage-entA risC 2e,a1io*r an) epi)e-ic -o)e++ing.
At t,e ti-e of writing ?=e2r*ar: 23(4@A -o)e+ )e1e+op-ent is on tracC. Mo)e+ constr*ction ,as
co--ence)A wit, a target co-p+etion )ate of 3( A*g*st 23(4.

D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

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1 Introduction
T,e TELL ME project ai-s to )e1e+op an e1i)ence42ase) co--*nication pacCage to respon) to -ajor
epi)e-ic o*t2reaCsA nota2+: f+* pan)e-ics. An agent42ase) -o)e+ is to 2e )e1e+ope) as part of t,e project
for *se 2: agencies in assessing )ifferent co--*nication p+ans.
T,is report sets o*t t,e -o)e+ )esignA )escri2ing t,e -ajor co-ponents of t,e -o)e+ an) t,e +ogica+ r*+es
to 2e fo++owe) 2: t,e entities wit,in t,e -o)e+. #t incorporates t,e pre1io*s+: reporte) ?D4.(@ arc,itect*re
an) 1a+i)ation )esign e+e-ents. T,e specifications inc+*)e) in t,is report are not fina+. T,e )esign -a:
c,ange )*ring -o)e+ )e1e+op-ent. =or e6a-p+eA t,e )ata nee)e) to constr*ct t,e -o)e+ as en1isage) -a:
not 2e a1ai+a2+e. T,ereforeA t,is report s,o*+) 2e interprete) as a state-ent of intent rat,er t,an a fina+
)escription of t,e -o)e+.
T,e si-*+ation software is e6pecte) to 2e a1ai+a2+e for testing 2: 8cto2er 23(4 ?D4.4 an) D4.'@. T,e fina+
protot:pe is )*e in Fan*ar: 23(' ?D4.3 ;rotot:pe Software@.
1.1 Role of the simulation model in TE ME
#n t,e e1ent of an inf+*enBa o*t2reaCA ,ea+t, agencies an) ot,er officia+ 2o)ies pro1i)e infor-ation a2o*t
t,e progress of t,e epi)e-ic an) reco--en)e) actions to 2e *n)ertaCen 2: t,e p*2+ic an) partic*+ar
gro*ps w,o face greater risC. %eco--en)e) actions -a: inc+*)e 1accination an) protecti1e 2e,a1io*rs
s*c, as was,ing ,an)s an) a1oi)ing p*2+ic p+aces.
T,e TELL ME project is to assist ,ea+t, agencies to )e1e+op p+ans to co--*nicate 2eforeA )*ring an) after
an: infectio*s )isease o*t2reaC in an effecti1e wa:A so as to enco*rage appropriate pop*+ation 2e,a1io*r
an) -ini-ise t,e i-pact of an epi)e-ic. T,ere are two -ajor too+s to 2e )e1e+ope): a co--*nication Cit
an) an agent42ase) -o)e+ to assist wit, p+an )esign )ecisions.
T,e -o)e+ is to pro1i)e )ecision s*pport for ,ea+t, agencies ?an) ot,er officia+ infor-ation pro1i)ers@A
assisting re+e1ant officia+s to *n)erstan) t,e co-p+e6 pro2+e- of co--*nicating effecti1e+: 2eforeA )*ring
an) after an inf+*enBa epi)e-ic. More specifica++:A it is to a++ow co-parison of options for co--*nication
p+ansA wit, t,e *ser to enter a co--*nication p+an an) e6p+ore so-e of t,e Ce: effects on 2e,a1io*r an)
conse/*ent+: on t,e progress of t,e epi)e-ic. To )o t,isA t,e -o)e+ -*st:
a++ow inp*t of Ce: feat*res of )ifferent co--*nication p+ansD
a++ow inp*t of Ce: feat*res of t,e scenario or sit*ation in w,ic, t,e co--*nication p+an is inten)e)
to 2e *se)D
respon) in -o)erate+: rea+istic wa:s to )ifferent co--*nication p+ansD an)
pro1i)e o*tp*t in a wa: t,at assists t,e *ser to *n)erstan) t,e i-pact of t,e co--*nication p+an.
T,ese fo*r re/*ire-ents s,ape t,e -o)e+ )esign. T,e inp*t an) o*tp*t co-prise t,e interface an) are
)isc*sse) in section 3. T,e -o)e+ *ses r*+es to app+: t,e inp*t to a si-*+ate) pop*+ation an) t,ere2:
generate o*tp*t concerning t,e effect of t,e co--*nication gi1en t,e conte6t of t,e sit*ation. T,ese r*+es
co-prise t,e -o)e+ +ogic an) are )isc*sse) in section 4.
1.! "hat #uestion is the model to ans$er%
A sing+e foc*s /*estion is *sef*+ )*ring a -o)e+ )esign to g*i)e se+ection of re+e1ant c,aracteristics an)
re+ations,ips to 2e inc+*)e) ?or e6c+*)e)@ in t,e fina+ -o)e+ str*ct*re. T,is a++ows t,e -o)e+ to represent
t,e essentia+ aspects of t,e rea+ wor+) wit,o*t incorporating its f*++ co-p+e6it:. T,e re+ations,ips to 2e
inc+*)e) in t,e TELL ME -o)e+ are t,ose re+e1ant to t,e foc*s /*estion:
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Gi1en a specific co--*nication p+anA w,at proportion of t,e pop*+ation is infecte) o1er t,e
)*ration of t,e epi)e-ic0
5: specif:ing t,at t,e co--*nication p+an is an inp*tA t,is /*estion foc*sses t,e )esign re/*ire-ents on
t,e re+ations,ip 2etween co--*nication an) tota+ infecte) pop*+ationA w,ic, pro1i)es for inter-e)iate
re+ations,ips wit, 2e,a1io*r. T,e p+an is not t,e on+: inp*tA ,owe1erA as t,e infecte) pop*+ation wi++ a+so
re+: on t,e specifics of t,e )isease ?s*c, as infectio*s perio)@ an) pop*+ation. #t is i-p+icit in t,e foc*s
/*estion t,at t,ese ot,er inp*ts are ,e+) constant for t,e co-parison 2etween p+ans.
T,is foc*s /*estion s*pports a range of criteria an) -o)e+ o*tp*ts t,at faci+itate co-parison 2etween
co-peting co--*nication p+ans. T,ese criteria concern se1era+ associate) /*estions t,at assist *sers to
not on+: -aCe )ecisionsA 2*t a+so to *n)erstan) t,e -o)e+ res*+ts:
.,at proportion of genera+ pop*+ation an) specific target gro*ps a)opt protecti1e 2e,a1io*r0
.,ic, feat*res of co--*nication are -ost i-portant in ac,ie1ing )esira2+e pop*+ation 2e,a1io*r0
.,at is t,e e6pecte) siBe of t,e epi)e-ic an) ,ow is its i-pact )istri2*te) spatia++: an)
te-pora++:0
1.& Ad'ancin( modellin( of beha'iour durin( e)idemics
T,e TELL ME project re+ies on t,e connection 2etween protecti1e 2e,a1io*r an) epi)e-ic trans-ission.
T,at isA persona+ 1o+*ntar: )ecisions to 2e 1accinate) or a)opt ,an) ,:giene an) socia+ )istancing
-eas*res re)*ce t,e i-pact of an inf+*enBa o*t2reaC. .it,o*t s*c, a connectionA t,ere wo*+) 2e no 1a+*e
in co--*nication enco*raging s*c, 2e,a1io*r. <owe1erA t,ese )ecisions are inf+*ence) 2: t,e personEs
sit*ationA w,ic, inc+*)es pro6i-it: an) ot,er feat*res of t,e epi)e-ic. T,at isA t,ere is inter)epen)ence
an) fee)2acC 2etween t,e persona+ 2e,a1io*r an) t,e epi)e-ic. =*rt,erA t,e sit*ation c,anges
t,ro*g,o*t an epi)e-icA so an: -o)e+ -*st 2e ):na-ic an) a++ow 2e,a1io*r to c,ange o1er si-*+ate)
ti-e.
Since t,e foc*s of t,e -o)e+ is t,e effect of co--*nicationA it -*st connect co--*nication to 2e,a1io*r.
T,at connection s,o*+) 2e consistent wit, 2ot, t,e re+e1ant ps:c,o+ogica+ t,eories an) an: e-pirica+ )ata.
As peop+e respon) )ifferent+: in t,e sa-e sit*ationA t,is con)ition a+so re/*ires t,at t,e -o)e+ inc+*)es
s*2stantia+ ,eterogeneit: wit, respect to )e-ograp,ic c,aracteristics 2*t a+so in)i1i)*a+ responses wit,in
)e-ograp,ic gro*ps. =or e6a-p+eA t,e .;( +iterat*re re1iew fo*n) t,at -en an) wo-en ,a1e )ifferent
+e1e+s of 1accine acceptanceA 2*t a+so t,at on+: so-e peop+e are wi++ing to 2e 1accinate) ?TELL MEA 23(2@.
Toget,erA t,ese two 2roa) con)itions esta2+is, fi1e -ini-*- f*nctiona+ stan)ar)s for t,e -o)e+ )esign:
!o--*nication affects 2e,a1io*r
5e,a1io*r is 2ase) on appropriate ps:c,o+ogica+ -o)e+s
<eterogeneit: of 2e,a1io*r response an) sit*ationa+ awareness
Two4wa: ):na-ic inf+*ence of epi)e-ic on 2e,a1io*r an) 2e,a1io*r on epi)e-ic
;ara-eterisation wit, e-pirica+ )ataA w,ere a1ai+a2+e
A recent re1iew ?=*nC et a+.A 23(3@ i)entifie) 2' t,eoretica+ st*)ies t,at consi)ere) t,e -*t*a+ inf+*ences
of persona+ 2e,a1io*r an) epi)e-io+og: of infectio*s )isease ?t,e fo*rt, stan)ar) a2o1e@. A+-ost a++ t,e
-o)e+s re1iewe) were co-part-ent -o)e+sA w,ic, is t,e stan)ar) -at,e-atica+ approac, to -o)e++ing
epi)e-ics wit, )ifferentia+ e/*ations. T,is approac, creates no-ina+ co-part-ents for peop+e of )ifferent
epi)e-ic stat*s s*c, as Gs*scepti2+eE or Ginfecte)EA an) -o)e+s t,e rates at w,ic, peop+e -o1e 2etween
co-part-ents. 5e,a1io*r is a))e) 2: increasing t,e n*-2er of co-part-ents an) a)j*sting rates
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?)ifferent approac,es are c+assifie) in ?;erra et a+.A 23((@@. =or e6a-p+eA t,e Gs*scepti2+eE -a: 2e sp+it into
Gs*scepti2+eA goo) ,an) ,:gieneE an) Gs*scepti2+eA poor ,an) ,:gieneE an) t,e rate of infection for t,e
for-er wo*+) 2e +ower t,an t,e +atter.
<owe1erA t,ese -o)e+s are *na2+e to )ea+ wit, t,e ,eterogeneit: re/*ire-ents of TELL ME. !o-part-ent
)i1isions wo*+) 2e nee)e) not j*st for 2e,a1io*r c,oicesA 2*t a+so factors t,at contri2*te to 2e,a1io*r s*c,
as )ifferent +e1e+s of percei1e) risCA geograp,ic pro6i-it: to t,e o*t2reaCA e6pos*re to co--*nicationA an)
re+e1ant )e-ograp,ic feat*res. T,e -ost appropriate -o)e++ing -et,o)o+og: to a++ow a++ t,ese factors to
inf+*ence 2e,a1io*r is agent 2ase) -o)e++ing ?A5M 4 )isc*sse) at section 2.(@.
T,e capacit: to worC wit, s*2stantia+ ,eterogeneit: ,as +e) to t,e *se of A5Ms in two areas of epi)e-ic
-o)e++ing in partic*+ar. T,e first of t,ese is t,e si-*+ation of epi)e-ics o1er socia+ networCs ?Hee+ing an)
Ea-esA 233'@ t,at ref+ect specific patterns of contacts 2etween peop+e t,at a++ow infections to 2e
trans-itte). T,e secon) is t,e *se of )etai+e) pop*+ationA transport an) -o2i+it: )atasets to -o)e+ t,e
geograp,ic sprea) of infections an) t,e potentia+ effect of po+ic: -eas*res inten)e) to re)*ce -o2i+it:A
s*c, as /*arantines or sc,oo+ c+os*re ?Aje++i et a+.A 23(3@.
8t,er -o)e+s )ea+ wit, )ifferent s*2sets of t,e )esire) f*nctiona+it: for t,e TELL ME -o)e+. =or e6a-p+eA
infor-a+ co--*nication is inc+*)e) in two -o)e+s of t,e two4wa: ):na-ic inf+*ence of persona+ 2e,a1io*r
an) epi)e-ic trans-ission ?=*nC et a+.A 2339D Hiss et a+.A 23(3@ an) t,ere are se1era+ -o)e+s t,at e6a-ine
t,e i-pact of po+ic: inter1entions *sing e-pirica+ )ata fro- t,e 2333 SA%S o*t2reaC ?5a*c, et a+.A 233'@.
8f -ost re+e1ance to t,e TELL ME project is a recent agent 2ase) -o)e+ of face-asC *se )*ring t,e 2333
SA%S o*t2reaC in <ong Hong ?D*r,a- an) !as-anA 23(2@. #t at +east partia++: -eets t,ree of t,e fi1e
f*nctiona+ stan)ar)s. T,e a*t,ors present t,is -o)e+ as t,e Ifirst )e-onstration of a /*antitati1e <5M
J<ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+K s*ita2+e for incorporation in agent42ase) epi)e-ic si-*+ationL ?D*r,a- an) !as-anA
23(2@A e6p+icit+: recognising its +i-itations 2*t a+so t,e nee) to co-pro-ise rea+is- to ac,ie1e -o)e+
feasi2i+it:. #n)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r is -o)e++e) *sing t,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ ?see section 4.2@A ca+i2rate) wit,
p*2+is,e) )ata a2o*t face-asC *se )*ring t,e o*t2reaC ?La* et a+.A 2333@. .,i+e t,ere is ,eterogeneit: of
2e,a1io*r responseA t,at arises fro- ran)o-isation of t,e para-eters for si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s ?aro*n)
t,e ca+i2rate) a1erage 2est fit para-eters@ rat,er t,an ca+i2rating to )ifferent pop*+ation gro*ps. T,e
-o)e++e) face-asC a)option occ*rs in response to ):na-ic epi)e-ic infor-ation a2o*t pre1a+ence an)
)eat,sA 2*t t,ere is no inf+*ence of face-asC *se on t,e progress of t,e epi)e-ic.
T,e propose) TELL ME -o)e+ is a-2itio*sA a)1ancing -o)e++ing a2o*t ,ea+t, 2e,a1io*r )*ring inf+*enBa
epi)e-ics in se1era+ wa:s si-*+taneo*s+:. =ro- t,e +iterat*reA it appears t,at t,ere are no e6isting
inf+*enBa -o)e+s t,at atte-pt to co-p+: wit, -ore t,an t,ree of t,e f*nctiona+ stan)ar)s an) -an:
co-p+: wit, on+: one. 5: inc+*)ing co--*nication an) -*t*a+ inf+*enceA ,owe1er a2stract+:A t,e TELL ME
-o)e+ wi++ 2e a s*2stantia+ secon) step to e6ten) an) genera+ise -o)e++ing of protecti1e 2e,a1io*r an)
epi)e-ic progress.

D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

(3
! Architecture
!.1 A(ent*+ased Modellin(
T,e -o)e++ing tec,ni/*e to 2e *se) for t,e TELL ME project is agent42ase) -o)e++ing ?A5M@. A5M Iis a
co-p*tationa+ -et,o) t,at ena2+es a researc,er to createA ana+:seA an) e6peri-ent wit, -o)e+s
co-pose) of agents t,at interact wit,in an en1iron-entL ?A2)o* et a+.A 23(2@. T,ere are se1era+ i-portant
e+e-ents in t,is )escription.
=irst+:A t,e -o)e+ is co-pose) of a*tono-o*s an) ,eterogeneo*s agents. T,at isA t,ere are -an:
si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s wit, )ifferent properties an) )ecision -aCing r*+es. #n TELL ME for e6a-p+eA
properties inc+*)e geograp,ic +ocation an) access to -e)iaA an) r*+es inc+*)e epi)e-ic pre1a+ence at w,ic,
t,e in)i1i)*a+ wi++ seeC 1accination.
Secon)+:A t,ese agents interact wit,in an en1iron-ent. T,at isA t,e in)i1i)*a+s are a2+e to percei1e t,e
sit*ation in w,ic, t,e: fin) t,e-se+1esA taCe t,at sit*ation into acco*nt in t,eir )ecisions an) taCe actions
t,at affect t,e en1iron-ent. !ontin*ing t,e e6a-p+eA t,e in)i1i)*a+s are a2+e to percei1e t,e epi)e-ic
pre1a+ence in t,eir +ocation an) recei1e -e)ia reportsA w,ic, a++ows t,e- to c,ecC t,eir GseeC 1accinationE
r*+e an) assess w,et,er t,e epi)e-ic t,res,o+) ,as 2een -et.
=ina++:A A5M is a co-p*tationa+ -et,o) t,at si-*+ates interactions o1er ti-e. Si-*+ations a++ow Gw,at ifE
/*estions to 2e teste) /*icC+:A c,eap+: an) wit,o*t t,e et,ica+ pro2+e-s of setting *p e6peri-ents.
;ro1i)e) t,e Ce: interactions are proper+: represente) in t,e -o)e+A t,e si-*+ation can e6p+ore t,e
conse/*ences of )ifferent actions. =or TELL MEA )ifferent co--*nication p+ans can 2e i-p+e-ente) as
separate r*ns of t,e -o)e+ an) t,e responses of in)i1i)*a+s an) conse/*ent i-pact on epi)e-ic siBe an)
)*ration co-pare).
#t is i-portant to recogniseA ,owe1erA t,at t,e res*+ts of a si-*+ation r*n wi++ not 2e s*ita2+e for
forecasting. =or e6a-p+eA it wo*+) not 2e appropriate to c+ai- t,at a partic*+ar co--*nication p+an wo*+)
+ea) to 23M fewer infections. T,e -o)e+ is a si-p+ifie) representation of t,e Ce: re+ations,ips t,at e6ist in
t,e rea+ wor+). T,at si-p+ification is w,at -aCes t,e -o)e+ *sef*+ – Cnow+e)ge a2o*t t,e rea+ wor+) can 2e
capt*re) an) its conse/*ences can 2e *n)erstoo) 4 2*t t,e -o)e+ wi++ not 2e )etai+e) eno*g, to s*pport
specific c+ai-s. T,e -o)e+ is a -e)iator I*se) pri-ari+: to esta2+is, t,e capa2i+it: of t,e concept*a+ -o)e+
to represent t,e s:ste- an) to t,en gain so-e insig,t into t,e s:ste-Ns c,aracteristics an) 2e,a1io*rsL
?<eat, et a+.A 2339@A so as to *n)erstan) potentia+ i-p+ications of )ifferent scenarios.
!.! Model entities
T,ere are t,ree -ain t:pes of TELL ME -o)e+ o2jects for w,ic, interaction an) 2e,a1io*r r*+es are
re/*ire):
MessagesA pacCage) as co--*nication p+ansD
#n)i1i)*a+sA w,o recei1e t,e -essages an) e6,i2it 2e,a1io*r t,at -a: inc+*)e epi)e-ic protecti1e
actions s*c, as seeCing 1accination or a1oi)ing p*2+ic p+acesD an)
%egionsA w,ic, ,o+) infor-ation a2o*t t,e +oca+ progression of t,e epi)e-ic.
As t,e co--*nication p+an wi++ in1o+1e triggering -essages in specific sit*ations ?see section 3.(@A t,e
Messages wi++ nee) to recognise w,et,er t,e trigger ,as occ*rre)D s*c, as c,ecCing w,et,er pre1a+ence
+e1e+s e6cee) a gi1en t,res,o+). T,e: wi++ a+so nee) to co--*nicate specific infor-ation to appropriate
#n)i1i)*a+ agents.
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

((
%egions -anage t,e epi)e-ic -o)e++ing. T,eir properties inc+*)e pop*+ation )ensit:A inc+*)ing t,e
proportion of t,e pop*+ation in specific epi)e-ic states s*c, as Ginfecte)E. T,e: *se t,e protecti1e
2e,a1io*r stat*s of #n)i1i)*a+s at t,eir +ocation to a)j*st t,e *n)er+:ing infecti1it: rate. T,is rate is *se) to
*p)ate t,e pop*+ation proportions in eac, epi)e-ic state in accor)ance wit, -at,e-atica+ e/*ations.
T,e -o)e+ wi++ inc+*)e a few t,o*san) #n)i1i)*a+sA wit, ran)o-+: assigne) )e-ograp,ic an) ps:c,o+ogica+
c,aracteristics t,at ref+ect t,e ,eterogeneit: of a co*ntr:Es pop*+ation an) conse/*ent attit*)e ranges
?w,ere Cnown@. T,ese c,aracteristics wi++ inc+*)e t,e -ost i-portant re+e1ant to attit*)es t,at were
i)entifie) ear+ier in t,e TELL ME project A s*c, as gen)er an) G,ig, risCE ,ea+t, stat*s perception ?TELL MEA
23(2@.
T,ere are fo*r )efining c,aracteristics of agents in an A5M ?A2)o* et a+.A 23(2@:
;erception: Agents can percei1e t,eir en1iron-entA inc+*)ing ot,er agents in t,eir 1icinit:.
;erfor-ance: T,e: ,a1e a set of 2e,a1io*rs t,at t,e: are capa2+e of perfor-ing s*c, as -o1ingA
co--*nicating wit, ot,er agentsA an) interacting wit, t,e en1iron-ent.
Me-or:: Agents ,a1e a -e-or: in w,ic, t,e: recor) t,eir pre1io*s states an) actions.
;o+ic:: T,e: ,a1e a set of r*+esA ,e*ristics or strategies t,at )eter-ineA gi1en t,eir present sit*ation
an) t,eir ,istor:A w,at t,e: s,o*+) )o ne6t.
#n)i1i)*a+s percei1e t,e epi)e-ic state of %egions for risC assess-entA t,e content of Messages )irecte) to
t,e-A an) t,e attit*)e of ot,er #n)i1i)*a+s so as to -onitor nor-s. T,e: perfor- 1ario*s 2e,a1io*rs in
response to t,ese perceptions an) in accor)ance wit, t,eir po+ic:A -ost nota2+: a)opting or a2an)oning
protecti1e 2e,a1io*r s*c, as seeCing 1accination. T,is a+so re/*ires -e-or: of t,eir own stateA inc+*)ing
attit*)e 1a+*es an) w,et,er t,e: are perfor-ing partic*+ar 2e,a1io*rs.
!.& Model soft$are
T,e si-*+ation is to 2e )e1e+ope) in >etLogo ?.i+ensC:A (999@A a specia+ist A5M app+ication wit, its own
progra--ing +ang*age. T,is wi++ ena2+e -o)e+ *sers to inp*t co--*nication p+ans an) a+so to -anip*+ate
ot,er para-eters t,at are re+e1ant for p+anning s*c, as t,e co*ntr: to 2e consi)ere) an) t,e infecti1it: of
t,e )isease.
A >etLogo -o)e+ ,as t,ree co-ponents. T,e G#nterfaceE co-ponent pro1i)es too+s to a++ow t,e *ser to
-anip*+ate Ce: -o)e+ para-eters an) r*n t,e -o)e+A an) reports of res*+ts inc+*)ing c,arts an) ot,er
infor-ation to -onitor t,e si-*+ation )*ring t,e r*n. T,e e+e-ents to 2e inc+*)e) in t,e interface are
)escri2e) at section 3. T,e G#nfoE co-ponent is to a++ow accessi2+e )oc*-entation to 2e pacCage) wit, t,e
-o)e+. T,e G!o)eE co-ponent sets o*t agent propertiesA interaction r*+es an) )ata. T,at isA t,is pro1i)es
t,e progra--ing to i-p+e-ent t,e -o)e+ +ogic as )escri2e) in section 4.
As we++ as pro1i)ing t,e str*ct*re an) too+s for 2*i+)ing an agent42ase) -o)e+A >etLogo a+so pro1i)es too+s
for ana+:sing t,e res*+ts of -o)e+ si-*+ations. =or e6a-p+eA t,e 5e,a1iorSpace too+ pro1i)es scenario
-anage-ent capa2i+itiesA so t,at res*+ts fro- -*+tip+e si-*+ation r*ns can 2e e6porte) for ana+:sis. T,ese
too+s are not part of t,e -o)e+ )esignA 2*t wi++ 2e )escri2e) in t,e )oc*-entation pro1i)e) wit, t,e
protot:pe software.

D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

(2
& Interface
As note) in section (.(A t,e inten)e) *se of t,e -o)e+ i-poses t,ree re/*ire-ent on t,e interface. T,ere
are two 2roa) t:pes of inp*tA t,e co--*nication p+an to 2e assesse) an) t,e sit*ation in w,ic, t,at p+an is
inten)e) to 2e *se). Separate+:A t,e -o)e+ o*tp*t -*st pro1i)e infor-ation necessar: to assess an)
co-pare co--*nication p+ansA partic*+ar+: t,e i-pact of t,e p+an 2eing assesse).
T,ere are -an: e+e-ents t,at co*+) 2e inc+*)e) in t,e inp*t interface. T,ese inc+*)e:
)escription of t,e -essages t,at -aCe *p t,e propose) co--*nication p+anD
coefficients for e/*ations t,at represent t,e wa: in w,ic, co--*nication inf+*ences 2e,a1io*r
c,angeD
epi)e-ic c,aracteristics s*c, as infecti1it: an) )*rationD an)
pop*+ation c,aracteristics s*c, as )istri2*tion of attit*)es a2o*t epi)e-ic response 2e,a1io*rsA
)ensit:A )e-ograp,ic str*ct*re.
#f t,e -o)e+ is to 2e accessi2+eA on+: a s-a++ n*-2er of t,ese can 2e a1ai+a2+e fro- t,e -o)e+ interface. #n
or)er to -eet t,ese c,a++engesA t,e interface wi++ 2e )i1i)e) into sections. T,e -ain interface wi++ ena2+e
contro+ of on+: t,e -ost i-portant para-eters an) scenario settings. 8t,er sections wi++ pro1i)e for f*rt,er
)etai+ 2*t on+: 2e a1ai+a2+e 2: accessing separate interface screens.
T,e -ain assess-ent criteria for t,e co-peting co--*nication p+ans is to 2e Gw,at proportion of t,e
pop*+ation is infecte) o1er t,e )*ration of t,e epi)e-ic0E. T,*sA epi)e-ic i-pact is a Ce: feat*re of t,e
-o)e+ o*tp*tA inc+*)ing c,arts of pre1a+ence o1er ti-e an) spatia+ -aps. <owe1erA )ecision -aCers a+so
re/*ire infor-ation t,at assists t,e- to *n)erstan) t,e Ce: inf+*ences on t,at i-pactA so as to potentia++:
)esign -ore foc*sse) an) effecti1e options. <enceA t,e o*tp*t wi++ a+so inc+*)e c,arts an) s*--ar: )ata
concerning protecti1e 2e,a1io*rA t,e )irect effect of t,e co--*nication.
&.1 In)ut, Communication )lan
To a++ow t,e -o)e+ to interpret a co--*nication p+anA or pacCage of -essagesA a +ang*age is re/*ire) to
)escri2e t,e -essages. T,is section )e1e+ops s*c, a +ang*age an) pro1i)es e6a-p+es of potentia+
co--*nication p+ans *sing t,at +ang*age.
T,ere are se1era+ wa:s in w,ic, co--*nication can 2e *n)erstoo) an) ,ence p+ans can 2e )escri2e). #n
,is se-ina+ paperA Lasswe++ ?(948@ asserts t,at co--*nication can 2e )escri2e) as t,e answers to fi1e
/*estions: w,oD sa:s w,atD in w,ic, c,anne+D to w,o-D an) wit, w,at effect0 A for-a+ 1ersion of t,is
trans-ission foc*sse) fra-eworC co-prises fi1e e+e-ents: Sen)erA MessageA !,anne+A %ecei1erA an) Effect
?S,annon an) .ea1erA (949@. .,i+e t,eir concern was noiseA or t,e wa:s in w,ic, t,e trans-ission co*+)
2e )isr*pte)A t,is -o)e+ pro1i)es t,e 2asic e+e-ents necessar: in )escri2ing t,e Ce: e+e-ents in accessing
an a*)ience.
Mo)ern *n)erstan)ing of co--*nication is -ore n*ance)A foc*ssing on t,e -eaning?s@ an) f*nction of a
-essage ?FaCo2sonA (973@ or t,e ro+e of co--*nication in )e1e+oping o*r socia+ rea+it: ?>ewco-2A (9'3@.
T,ese *n)erstan)ings recognise t,at t,e effect of -essages wi++ 2e s*2ject to inf+*encing factors s*c, as
toneA c,oice of spoCespersonsA ter-ino+og: an) ti-ingD an) t,at t,e conte6t is i-portant in ,ow t,e
recipient interprets an: co--*nication. !rafters of -essages -*st se+ect appropriate +ang*agesA ens*re
-essages are consistent an) c*+t*ra++: sensiti1eA an) taCe acco*nt of -an: ot,er )etai+s. T,is
*n)erstan)ing recognises t,at t,e i-pact of co--*nication )epen)s on -an: conte6t*a+ factors t,at
inf+*ence ,ow a -essage is enco)e) 2: t,e sen)er an) )eco)e) 2: t,e recei1er ?<a++A (983@.
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

(3
Mo)ern approac,es ,a1e a+so -o1e) awa: fro- t,e +inear trans-ission -o)e+ in ot,er wa:s. =or e6a-p+eA
t,e !on1ergence Mo)e+ of !o--*nication ?%ogers an) Hincai)A (98(@ recognise) t,e i-portance of
fee)2acC c:c+es in effecti1e co--*nication processes. T,is approac, s*ggests t,at t,e sen)er is a2+e to
a)) or -o)if: t,e infor-ation accor)ing to t,e nee)s an) responses of t,e a*)ience. T,at isA t,e
co--*nications )esigner is a2+e to recei1e )irect inp*t fro- t,e a*)ience an) trans+ate it into an effecti1e
co--*nication p+anA in a 2acC an) fort, iterationA s+ow+: con1erging to a co--on gro*n).
=or t,e p*rposes of t,e si-*+ationA t,is n*ance) *n)erstan)ing is neit,er feasi2+e nor )esira2+e. T,e
si-*+ation -*st )escri2e t,e -ost 2asic e+e-ents of t,e -essages constr*cte) 2: ,ea+t, agencies an)
inten)e) to enco*rage protecti1e 2e,a1io*r 2: in)i1i)*a+s. .,i+e it is i-portant to *n)erstan) ,ow
in)i1i)*a+s interpret -essagesA it is -ore f*n)a-enta+ to -o)e+ w,et,er t,e: recei1e t,e -essage at a++.
T,e )esign of -essages to -ost effecti1e+: co--*nicateA an) ,ence iss*es of -eaning an) interpretationA
are to 2e a))resse) in t,e !o--*nication =ra-eworC Mo)e+ an) !o--*nication Hit )e1e+ope) e+sew,ere
in t,e TELL ME project ?.;3@.
As we++ as t,e for-a+ ,ea+t, agenc: co--*nicationA t,ere is a+so co--*nication o1er w,ic, ,ea+t,
agencies ,as on+: +i-ite) contro+. =or e6a-p+eA peop+e -a: )isc*ss t,e epi)e-ic sit*ation an) attit*)es
a2o*t protecti1e 2e,a1io*rA s,aring infor-ation ?or -isinfor-ation@ an) inf+*encing eac, ot,erEs attit*)es.
Socia+ -e)ia a+so a++ows -ore )istant pri1ate in)i1i)*a+s to interact )irect+:A pro1i)ing in)i1i)*a+s wit,
access to infor-ation an) attit*)es o*tsi)e of t,eir specific +ocation. #n a))itionA concerne) in)i1i)*a+s -a:
)isc*ss protecti1e 2e,a1io*r wit, ,ea+t,care professiona+s. T,is co--*nication for-s part of t,e r*+es
wit,in t,e -o)e+A rat,er t,an t,e interfaceA an) is )escri2e) in t,e -o)e+ +ogic ?section 4.3@.
&.1.1 Messa(e lan(ua(e
A co--*nications p+an ?or ca-paign@ wi++ in1o+1e one or -ore tactics. =or e6a-p+eA a si-p+e ca-paign -a:
in1o+1e j*st a print a)1ertise-ent. A -ore co-p+e6 ca-paign -a: in1o+1e te+e1ision a)1ertisingA ce+e2rit:
en)orse-ent at se1era+ p*2+ic e1ents an) a print a)1ertise-entA eac, wit, co-p+e-entar: content. =or
t,e p*rposes of t,e -o)e+A t,e print a)1ertise-entA te+e1ision a)1ertisingA an) progra--e of e1ents are
eac, consi)ere) an in)i1i)*a+ -essage.
Messages t,at -aCe *p a co--*nications p+an eac, ,a1e se1era+ properties an) eac, propert: ,as a
specific 1a+*e. #n t,e e6a-p+eA eac, -essage was )escri2e) 2: specif:ing t,e c,anne+ or )e+i1er:
-ec,anis- s*c, as Gte+e1isionE or Gen)orse-entE. G!,anne+E is an e6a-p+e of a propert: or t:pe of
c,aracteristicA pro1i)ing categories of )escriptors. #n contrastA Gte+e1isionE is a possi2+e 1a+*e for t,e
propert: of Gc,anne+E.
#n )escri2ing a co--*nications p+an to t,e -o)e+A eac, -essage wi++ nee) to 2e f*++: specifie)A wit, a
partic*+ar 1a+*e se+ecte) for eac, propert:. T,e o2jecti1e for t,e set of properties is t,erefore to ,a1e t,e
s-a++est possi2+e n*-2er of properties ?to +i-it t,e a-o*nt of )escription re/*ire)@ w,i+e inc+*)ing t,e
)etai+ re/*ire) to app+: t,e -essage to -o)e++e) entities. =or eac, propert:A t,e set of 1a+*es s,o*+) 2e as
s-a++ as possi2+e ?to -ini-ise t,e n*-2er of r*+es@ 2*t inc+*)e a++ t,e 1a+*es t,at +ea) to )ifferent effects.
T,e Ce: properties in t,e trans-ission oriente) co--*nication fra-eworC ?S,annon an) .ea1erA (949@
are: Sen)erA MessageA !,anne+A %ecei1erA an) Effect. =or t,e co--*nications p+ans inp*t to t,e -o)e+A t,e
Sen)er is t,e ,ea+t, a*t,orit:A or e/*i1a+ent officia+ so*rce. As it )oes not c,angeA t,e Sen)er )oes not
nee) to 2e part of t,e +ang*age. T,e Effect is not wit,in t,e contro+ of t,e ,ea+t, agenc: an) is inc+*)e) in
t,e -o)e+ r*+es rat,er t,an t,e +ang*age )escri2ing t,e co--*nication.
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

(4
T,e re-aining t,ree properties are inc+*)e) in t,e co--*nication +ang*ageA s*pp+e-ente) wit,
properties necessar: to coor)inate t,e pacCage of -essages. T,ese properties an) t,e 1a+*es t,e: -a:
taCe are presente) at Ta2+e (. T,e: were initia++: )e1e+ope) 2ase) on )isc*ssions at a session of t,e TELL
ME 8cto2er 23(3 .;3O.;4 co--*nication worCs,opA an) refine) in accor)ance wit, co--ents on t,e
)raft +ang*age fro- TELL ME partners in >o1e-2er 23(3. T,e ta2+e a+so )escri2es t,e wa: in w,ic, t,e
-o)e+ r*+es interpret t,e 1a+*e.
Table 1, -ro)erties to describe messa(es in a communication )lan and their )ossible 'alues
-ro)ert. Value Inter)retation and lo(ic im)act
!ontent: .,ic, aspects of t,e attit*)e an) 2e,a1io*r -o)e+ are affecte) 2: -essage
Epi)e-ic stat*s ;ro1i)es infor-ation: affects tr*st an) perceptions of pre1a+ence
5enefits E6p+ains w,: a)opt 2e,a1io*r in ter-s of 2enefit to se+f: affects
attit*)e
>or-s E-p,asises t,at ot,er peop+e e6pect t,e person to a)opt
2e,a1io*r: affects percei1e) s*2jecti1e nor-s
%eco--en) T,ose wit, ,ig, attit*)e an) nor-s 2*t +ow t,reat reassess
2e,a1io*r as if t,reat is ,ig,
5e,a1io*r: .,ic, 2e,a1io*r t:pe is t,e s*2ject of t,e -essage
$accination T,e content affects on+: attit*)es or percei1e) nor-s a2o*t
1accination
>on41accination T,e content affects on+: attit*)es or percei1e) nor-s a2o*t non4
1accination -eas*res s*c, as appropriate ,an) ,:giene or socia+
)istancing
5ot, T,e content affects attit*)es or percei1e) nor-s a2o*t
1accination an) ot,er 2e,a1io*r
!,anne+: .,ic, si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s recei1e t,e -essage
Mass -e)ia Eac, person ,as specifie) pro2a2i+it: of recei1ing -essage
Socia+ -e)ia Eac, person w,o is assigne) as accessing socia+ -e)ia ,as
specifie) pro2a2i+it: of recei1ing -essage
E1ents ;ro2a2i+it: of recei1ing -essage )epen)s on t,reat
<ea+t, -e)ia <ea+t,care professiona+s ,a1e ,ig, pro2a2i+it: of recei1ing
-essage
<ea+t, profession ;ro2a2i+it: of recei1ing -essage )epen)s on attit*)e of +oca+
,ea+t,care professiona+sA as t,e: are pro1i)ing co--*nication
Target: .,ic, si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s consi)er t,e -essage to 2e re+e1ant to t,e-
A++ A++ e6pose) to co--*nication respon)
<ig, risC Affecte) on+: if ,a1e G,ig, risCE propert: ran)o-+: assigne)
<ea+t,care Affecte) on+: if G,ea+t,care professiona+E propert:
#nfecte) Affecte) on+: if c*rrent+: infecte)
Anti41accination Affecte) on+: if negati1e attit*)e a2o*t 1accination
Trigger: .,en t,e -essage occ*rs )*ring a si-*+ation
5efore Message in p+ace 2efore t,e start of t,e si-*+ation
#nfections: >ationa+ Message to a++ w,en c*-*+ati1e infection reac,es so-e specifie)
proportion of t,e nationa+ pop*+ation
#nfections: Loca+ Message w,en an) w,ere c*-*+ati1e infection reac,es so-e
specifie) proportion of t,e +oca+ pop*+ation
=irst )eat, Message occ*rs i--e)iate+: after first )eat,
%eg*+ar Message at specifie) inter1a+s ?n*-2er of )a:s@
After Message occ*rs w,en pre1a+ence fa++s to so-e proportion of peaC

D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

('
T,e Message aspect of t,e for-a+ co--*nication fra-eworC ,as two co-ponent properties: !ontent an)
5e,a1io*r. Toget,erA t,ese )escri2e t,e -essage t,at is inten)e) to 2e co--*nicate). G!ontentE refers to
w,at t,e -essage is inten)e) to co--*nicateA s*c, as pers*asi1e infor-ation to enco*rage partic*+ar
2e,a1io*r. G5e,a1io*rE i)entifies w,ic, t:pe of 2e,a1io*r is t,e s*2ject of t,e -essageA 1accination or
protecti1e -eas*res s*c, as appropriate ,an) ,:giene ?or 2ot,@. #t is i-portant to )isting*is, 2etween
t,ese 2eca*se a 1accine -a: not 2e a1ai+a2+e an)A e1en if it is a1ai+a2+eA peop+e w,o ,a1e safet: concerns
a2o*t 1accines can sti++ 2e enco*rage) to a)opt ot,er 2e,a1io*r. T,e -o)e+ *ses t,is infor-ation to
)eter-ine t,e effect of t,e -essage on t,ose w,o recei1e it an) consi)er it re+e1ant to t,e-.
!,anne+ in t,e co--*nication fra-eworC is )irect+: transferre) as !,anne+ in t,e si-*+ation -o)e+. T,is is
t,e )e+i1er: -ec,anis- for t,e -essageA s*c, as -ass -e)ia ?te+e1isionA newspapers@ or socia+ -e)ia
?=ace2ooCA Twitter@. T,e -o)e+ *ses t,is infor-ation to i)entif: w,ic, si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s are e6pose) to
t,e -essage an) t,e cre)i2i+it: of t,at -essage.
%ecei1er in t,e fra-eworC is trans+ate) as Target in t,e -o)e+. T,e ,ea+t, a*t,orit: is not a2+e to contro+
w,o act*a++: recei1es t,e -essageA 2*t w,o t,e: inten) t,e -essage to reac,. T,e -o)e+ *ses t,is
infor-ation to i)entif: w,et,er a si-*+ate) person w,o is e6pose) to t,e -essage ?1ia !,anne+@ t,en
respon)s to it. =or e6a-p+eA a -essage) targete) to ,ig, risC persons wi++ ,a1e no effect on an: person not
f+agge) as ,ig, risCA e1en if t,e: recei1e it.
T,e fina+ co-ponent of t,e +ang*age concerns coor)ination of -essages t,at occ*r at )ifferent p,ases of
an epi)e-ic to -aCe *p a co--*nication p+an. =or e6a-p+eA a ca-paign -a: foc*s on facts an) fig*res
)*ring t,e preparator: stageA e-p,asise ,an) ,:giene an) ot,er protecti1e 2e,a1io*rs w,en t,e infection
is )etecte) in t,e +oca+ pop*+ationA an) t,en reco--en) 1accination for ,ig, risC gro*ps once a 1accine is
a1ai+a2+e. T,e -o)e+ steps t,ro*g, si-*+ate) ti-e an) -*st t,erefore 2e aware of w,en t,e in)i1i)*a+
-essages are co--*nicate). T,is ti-ing is )escri2e) 2: t,e Trigger propert:A w,ic, )efines t,e t:pe of
e1ent t,at initiates a -essage. #n a))itionA so-e triggers a++ow a))itiona+ para-eters ?not s,own in t,e
ta2+e@ t,at f*rt,er specif: t,e ti-ing. =or e6a-p+eA one trigger is t,at a certain proportion of t,e pop*+ation
,as 2een infect an) t,e a))itiona+ para-eter for t,is sit*ation is t,e partic*+ar proportion to 2e app+ie).
#n a rea+ wor+) co--*nications p+anA it is not s*fficient to )escri2e a -essage si-p+: asA for e6a-p+eA G-ass
-e)ia ca-paign to reco--en) 1accination to at risC gro*ps to 2e r*n once c*-*+ati1e inci)ence reac,es
2M of t,e pop*+ationPE. 8t,er )etai+s inc+*)e t,e )*ration an) fre/*enc: of t,e a)1ertise-entsA c,oice of
spoCespersonsA t,e nee) to 2e c+ear a2o*t w,o is at risCA content of t,e a)1ertise-ent to 2e respectf*+ an)
conte6t*a++: sensiti1eA se+ection of appropriate +ang*agesA an) -an: ot,er )etai+s. T,e co--*nication
+ang*age for t,e si-*+ation -o)e+ wi++ not inc+*)e t,ese i-p+e-entation feat*res. #nstea)A t,e +ogic r*+es
ass*-e t,at t,e -essage )esigner is s*fficient+: sCi++e) an) Cnow+e)gea2+e to )e1e+op appropriate
-essages wit, t,e assistance of t,e TELL ME co--*nication Cit as re/*ire).
&.1.! E/am)le )lans
A co--*nication p+an is a set of -essages. 8ne wa: to t,inC a2o*t )ifferent possi2+e co--*nication p+ans
is to i-agine )ifferent scenarios an) )e1e+op a p+an t,at is s*ita2+e for t,at partic*+ar sit*ation. <owe1erA
once generate)A a p+an wi++ 2e a2+e to 2e si-*+ate) in t,e -o)e+A regar)+ess of t,e sit*ation 2eing
-o)e++e).
Two e6a-p+e p+ans are presente)A specif:ing its co-ponent -essages *sing t,e properties )escri2e) at
Ta2+e (. =or e6a-p+eA t,e first p+an ?Ta2+e 2@ contains (2 -essages t,at wo*+) 2e )e+i1ere) to )ifferent
target a*)iences )*ring t,e epi)e-ic. T,e n*-2ering is for con1enience on+:A an) ,as no -eaning.
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

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Message ( occ*rs ' )a:s 2efore t,e epi)e-ic reac,es t,e co*ntr: 2eing -o)e++e)A an) *ses -ass -e)ia to
reco--en) t,at ,ig, risC in)i1i)*a+s a)opt protecti1e 2e,a1io*r s*c, as ,an) ,:giene or socia+ )istancing.
Message (3 p*ts in p+ace socia+ -e)ia -essages e1er: 3 )a:s t,at pro1i)e infor-ation a2o*t t,e epi)e-ic.
Table !, E/am)le hi(h acti'it. )lan
Messa(e Tar(et Channel Content +eha'iour Tri((er and )arameter
( <ig, risC Mass -e)ia %eco--en) 8t,er 5efore 4' )a:s
2 <ig, risC Socia+ -e)ia %eco--en) 8t,er 5efore 4' )a:s
3 <ea+t,care <ea+t, -e)ia 5enefits 8t,er 5efore 4' )a:s
4 A++ Mass -e)ia Epi)e-ic Stat*s 8t,er =irst Deat, 4
' A++ Mass -e)ia 5enefits 8t,er =irst Deat, 4
7 A++ Mass -e)ia 5enefits 8t,er #nfections >ationa+ (M
7 A++ E1ents 5enefits 8t,er #nfections Loca+ 'M
8 A++ Socia+ -e)ia >or-s 8t,er #nfections Loca+ 2M
9 A++ Mass -e)ia Epi)e-ic Stat*s 8t,er %eg*+ar 3 )a:s
(3 A++ Socia+ -e)ia Epi)e-ic Stat*s 8t,er %eg*+ar 3 )a:s
(( A++ Mass -e)ia 5enefits 8t,er After '3M
(2 <ig, %isC <ea+t, prof %eco--en) 8t,er After '3M

T,e first e6a-p+e p+an ?Ta2+e 2@ is potentia++: appropriate for a worst case sit*ationA w,ere s:-pto-s are
se1ere an) t,ere is no 1accine. #t in1o+1es e6tensi1e co--*nications acti1it:A foc*ssing on non41accination
2e,a1io*rs. T,e secon) e6a-p+e p+an ?Ta2+e 3@ is -ore s*ita2+e for an o*t2reaC wit, -i+)er s:-pto-sA
w,ere t,e -ain concern is t,e i-pact on t,ose peop+e wit, e6isting poor ,ea+t,.
Table &, E/am)le lo$ acti'it. )lan
Messa(e Tar(et Channel Content +eha'iour Tri((er and )arameter
( <ig, risC Mass -e)ia %eco--en) 5ot, 5efore 4' )a:s
2 <ig, risC Socia+ -e)ia %eco--en) 5ot, 5efore 4' )a:s
3 <ea+t,care <ea+t, -e)ia 5enefits 5ot, 5efore 4' )a:s
4 A++ Mass -e)ia Epi)e-ic Stat*s 5ot, %eg*+ar 3 )a:s
' #nfecte) <ea+t, prof 5enefits 8t,er 5efore 3 )a:s
7 <ig, %isC <ea+t, prof %eco--en) 8t,er After '3M

&.1.& Res)onses to emer(in( )roblems
T,ere are -an: pro2+e-s t,at -a: occ*r )*ring an epi)e-ic t,at inf+*ence peop+eEs attit*)es a2o*t
protecti1e 2e,a1io*rs. !o--*nication p+ans -a: a+so inc+*)e e+e-ents to respon) to s*c, pro2+e-s if
t,e: e-erge.
Separate+:A t,e -o)e+ wi++ a+so a++ow t,e inp*t of so-e *np+anne) e1ents as part of t,e scenario to w,ic,
t,e co--*nication p+an is inten)e) to respon). T,e -o)e+ *ser wi++ 2e a2+e to in)icate w,et,er or not t,e
,ea+t, agenc: respon)s to t,e e1ent ?to a++ow co-parison@ 2*t not t,e for- of t,at response. T,ese e1ents
an) t,eir i-p+ications for t,e -o)e+ inc+*)e:
• %*-o*r: +owers tr*st in ,ea+t, -essages for t,ose e6pose) to t,e r*-o*r. E6pos*re is ,ig,er for t,ose
wit, access to socia+ -e)ia. <ea+t, agenc: response restores tr*stA s,ortens t,e )*ration of t,e effect.
• $accine pro2+e-s s*c, as access )iffic*+ties or si)e effects: )ecrease in attit*)e scores for 1accination
an) +owers tr*st. <ea+t, agenc: response restores tr*st ?for e6a-p+eA 2: e6p+aining ,ow t,e pro2+e-
arose an) ,as 2een correcte)@A s,ortening t,e )*ration of t,e effect an) t,e siBe of tr*st i-pact.
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

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• =a+se a+ar-: prior e6pecte) epi)e-ics )i) not occ*r. #nitia+ attit*)es are )ecrease) an) se1erit: is
)isco*nte) in t,e t,reat perception. <ea+t, agenc: response corrects t,e t,reat perception.
• #nitia+ a+ar- or co-p+acenc:: infor-ation not a1ai+a2+e at t,e 2eginning of t,e epi)e-ic. =i6e) se1erit:
an) pre1a+ence infor-ation are initia++: *se) for t,e t,reat perception co-ponent of t,e 2e,a1io*r
-o)e+. After t,e initia+ perio)A if t,e act*a+ 1a+*es are not si-i+arA tr*st in -essages is )ecrease) an)
o1ercorrection in attit*)e ?after a+ar-@ or t,reat perception ?after co-p+acenc:@. <ea+t, agenc:
response re)*ces t,e siBe of t,e effect at t,e en) of t,e initia+ perio).
&.! In)ut, E)idemic situation
As we++ as t,e co--*nication p+an to 2e assesse)A t,e -o)e+ inp*ts wi++ inc+*)e )etai+s of t,e sit*ation in
w,ic, t,e p+an is to 2e )e+i1ere). T,is inc+*)es Ce: c,aracteristics of t,e pop*+ation potentia++: affecte) 2:
t,e ,:pot,etica+ epi)e-ic an) )etai+s a2o*t t,e infection itse+f.
At t,e region +e1e+A t,e -o)e+ wi++ r*n a stan)ar) fi6e) pop*+ation spatia+ -at,e-atica+ -o)e+A wit,
co-part-ents for s*scepti2+eA infecte) an) reco1ere) s*2pop*+ations ?5ai+e:A (97'D Ma: an) An)ersonA
(984@. T,e re/*ire) para-eters are: pop*+ationA force of infection ?or si-i+ar co-2ination of contact rate
an) pro2a2i+it: of trans-ission gi1en contact@A reco1er: rateA an) -o1e-ent rates 2etween spatia++:
)istinct s*2pop*+ations. T,e interface wi++ a++ow se+ection of a co*ntr:A w,ic, wi++ t,en retrie1e G#S
pop*+ation )ensit: )ata to create t,e pop*+ation 2: region. T,e ot,er para-eters wi++ 2e )irect+: contro++e)
2: t,e interface an) wi++ 2e i)entica+ for a++ regions. T,at isA t,e -o)e+ wi++ not a++ow t,e epi)e-ic
para-eters to 2e )ifferent for )ifferent regions wit,in t,e co*ntr:.
T,ere are se1era+ ot,er para-eters to 2e a1ai+a2+e in t,e inp*t interface t,at concern t,e conte6t in w,ic,
t,e co--*nication p+an is to 2e assesse). T,e se1erit: of t,e epi)e-ic wi++ 2e operationa+ise) as t,e case
fata+it: rate. As one of t,e potentia+ 2e,a1io*rs to 2e a)opte) is 1accinationA Ce: 1accine feat*res wi++ a+so
2e inc+*)e) in t,e inp*ts inc+*)ing w,en it is a1ai+a2+e an) for w,ic, pop*+ations gro*ps – s*c, as
,ea+t,care worCers or e1er:one. =or 2ot, 1accination an) non4p,ar-ace*tica+ protecti1e 2e,a1io*rsA t,e
efficac: of t,e 2e,a1io*r wi++ a+so 2e accessi2+e wit, t,e inp*t interface.
Defa*+t 1a+*es wi++ 2e pro1i)e) for t,ese inp*ts so t,at t,e *ser on+: nee)s to c,ange partic*+ar para-eters
of interest. T,ese )efa*+t 1a+*es wi++ 2e c,osen 2ase) on 2est e1i)enceA for specific co*ntries w,ere
a1ai+a2+e an) appropriate.
&.& 0ut)ut, Simulation results
T,ere are two t:pes of res*+ts to 2e pro1i)e) 2: t,e -o)e+ o*tp*t: a)option of protecti1e 2e,a1io*r an)
epi)e-ic progress. =*rt,erA t,e o*tp*t is to 2e pro1i)e) in se1era+ wa:s: a -ap to )isp+a: spatia+
infor-ationA p+ots of ti-e seriesA an) reporting of specific n*-2ers.
T,e -ap o*tp*t wi++ 2e *p)ate) )*ring t,e si-*+ation an)A at an: point of si-*+ate) ti-eA wi++ pro1i)e
2roa) infor-ation a2o*t t,e epi)e-ic stat*s of regions an) protecti1e 2e,a1io*r a)opte) 2: si-*+ate)
peop+e wit,in eac, region. T,e -ap in initia+ 1ersions of t,e -o)e+ wi++ +ooC si-i+ar to =ig*re ( 2*t -a: 2e
re1ise) fo++owing *ser testing of t,e -o)e+. #n t,is initia+ 1ersionA co+o*re) s/*ares are *se) to in)icate
epi)e-ic progress ?re) for Gacti1eEA 2+*e for Gnot :et reac,e)E an) green for Gpost epi)e-icE@ wit, a circ+e to
in)icate w,et,er t,e -ajorit: of si-*+ate) peop+e in t,e region ,a1e ?p*rp+e@ or ,a1e not ?w,ite@ a)opte)
protecti1e 2e,a1io*r.
;+ots wi++ pro1i)e Ce: infor-ation o1er t,e entire perio) of t,e si-*+ation. ;+otte) infor-ation a2o*t
2e,a1io*r wi++ inc+*)e t,e proportion of t,e pop*+ation w,o ,a1e a)opte) eac, protecti1e 2e,a1io*r:
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

(8
1accination an) non4p,ar-ace*tica+ -eas*resA an) a+so t,e range of 1a+*es for t,is proportion across
regions. Epi)e-ic p+ots wi++ pro1i)e t,e proportion of t,e si-*+ate) pop*+ation w,o are s*scepti2+eA
infecte)A i--*ne or )ea).
1i(ure 1, E/am)le ma) 2of United 3in(dom45 dis)la.in( re(ional information about e)idemic status and ado)tion of )rotecti'e
beha'iour.

Specific n*-2ers wi++ a+so 2e reporte) on t,e interface. 5e,a1io*r res*+ts wi++ inc+*)e 1accination rates an)
-a6i-*- a)option of non4p,ar-ace*tica+ protecti1e -eas*res. Epi)e-ic res*+ts wi++ inc+*)e peaC
inci)ence an) pre1a+enceA an) w,en t,ese peaCs occ*rA as we++ as t,e tota+ proportion of t,e pop*+ation
e1er infecte).

D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

(9
6 Model lo(ic
T,e -o)e+ +ogic connects t,e inp*ts to t,e o*tp*tsA esta2+is,ing -o)erate+: rea+istic r*+es t,at )escri2e t,e
wa: t,at t,e -o)e+ is to respon) to )ifferent co--*nication p+ans an) epi)e-ic sit*ations. T,e
re+ations,ips t,at are to 2e inc+*)e) are t,ose re+e1ant to t,e foc*s /*estion of GGi1en a specific
co--*nication p+anA w,at proportion of t,e pop*+ation is infecte) o1er t,e )*ration of t,e epi)e-ic0E.
T,e re+ations,ips t,at -*st t,erefore 2e capt*re) in t,e -o)e+ +ogic are t,e effect of pacCages of
co--*nications on peop+eEs 2e,a1io*r in t,e presence of an epi)e-icA an) t,e conse/*ent effect on t,e
sprea) of a )isease. T,e str*ct*re of t,ese re+ations,ips are inc+*)e) in t,e -o)e+ as r*+es an) are
ca+i2rate) *sing )ata w,ere possi2+e.
T,ese r*+es are for-*+ate) wit, e/*ations or +ogica+ if4t,en state-entsA connecting sit*ations to agent
actionsA an) enco)ing t,e inf+*ences 2etween properties an) )ecisions of )ifferent t:pes of agents. =or t,e
TELL ME -o)e+A r*+es are re/*ire) for -an: aspects of -essage receptionA attit*)e c,angeA 2e,a1io*r an)
)isease trans-ission. =or e6a-p+eA t,ese r*+es )escri2e t,e wa: t,at co--*nication -essages are
interprete) 2: in)i1i)*a+s an) c,ange t,eir 2e,a1io*rA w,ic, in t*rn i-pacts on infecti1it: an) )isease
sprea) in t,e region w,ere t,ose peop+e G+i1eE. De1e+oping an) )escri2ing t,ese r*+es is t,e pri-ar:
o2jecti1e for t,e -o)e+ )esign.
T,e r*+es ,a1e 2een )e1e+ope) fro- infor-ation containe) in t,e reports of .;( an) .;2A specific
a))itiona+ +iterat*re ana+:sesA an) a staCe,o+)er co--*nication process in1o+1ing e6perience) epi)e-ic
response -anagers an) ot,er Ce: personne+. T,e: are not inten)e) to f*++: capt*re t,e co-p+e6it: an)
s*2t+et: of t,e wa:s in w,ic, peop+e respon) to co--*nication an) -aCe )ecisions. #nstea)A t,e r*+es re+:
on a1ai+a2+e -o)e+ 1aria2+es to operationa+ise a2stractions of Ce: effects.
6.1 +road model lo(ic
T,e 2roa) -o)e+ +ogic is at =ig*re 2. T,e Ce: entities wit,in t,e -o)e+ are co--*nication p+ansA in)i1i)*a+s
an) regions. T,e te6t )escri2es -ajor properties of t,ese entities an) are gro*pe) 2: entit:. T,e arrows
i)entif: t,e pattern of inf+*ences 2etween properties of entities. =or e6a-p+eA t,e protecti1e 2e,a1io*r
a)opte) 2: in)i1i)*a+s affects t,e regionsE infecti1it: rates *se) in t,e epi)e-ic -o)e+. T,e arrows in t,is
+ogic )iagra- t,erefore in)icate t,e -ain interactions for w,ic, r*+es wi++ 2e re/*ire).
T,e -ajor f+ow of inf+*ence is t,e effect t,at co--*nication ,as on attit*)e an) ,ence 2e,a1io*rA w,ic,
affects epi)e-ic trans-ission an) ,ence pre1a+ence. ;re1a+ence contri2*tes to percei1e) risCA w,ic, a+so
inf+*ences 2e,a1io*rA esta2+is,ing a fee)2acC re+ations,ip. #n a))itionA t,ere are se1era+ secon)ar:
re+ations,ips t,at are not on t,is -ajor f+owA 2*t a)) co-p+e6it: to t,e s:ste- 2e,a1io*r. =or e6a-p+eA
wi)esprea) a)option of 1isi2+e in)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r ?s*c, as wearing face-asCs@ increases t,e socia+
press*re to a)opt s*c, 2e,a1io*r. Anot,er e6a-p+e is c,anges in attit*)es arising fro- infor-a+
co--*nication 2etween frien)s.
T,e operation of t,ese re+ations,ips wi++ )epen) on specific c,aracteristics of t,e si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+ an)
t,eir sit*ation. =or e6a-p+eA an in)i1i)*a+Es percei1e) risC is inf+*ence) 2: t,e epi)e-ic pre1a+ence in t,eir
+ocationA rat,er t,an si-p+: t,e nationa+ pre1a+enceA as we++ as t,eir own )e-ograp,ic c,aracteristics.
#n)i1i)*a+s wi++ a+so ,a1e access to )ifferent infor-ation affecte) 2:A for e6a-p+eA w,et,er t,e: *se socia+
-e)ia. T,ose infor-ation )ifferences a+so contri2*te to )ifferent 2e,a1io*r.
Agent42ase) -o)e++ing a++ows for )ifferences in in)i1i)*a+ c,aracteristics an) recognises sit*ations wit,in
t,e -o)e++ing software. T,e -o)e+ +ogic r*+es t,erefore foc*s on trans+ating s*c, infor-ation into actions
an) 2e,a1io*rs 2: t,e -o)e+ entities.
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1i(ure !, +road model lo(ic.


6.! Simulatin( the )rotecti'e beha'iour of indi'iduals
T,ere are se1era+ we++ esta2+is,e) -o)e+s fro- ps:c,o+og: t,at pre)ict ?or e6p+ain@ 2e,a1io*r an) c,ange
in 2e,a1io*r on t,e 2asis of ot,er 1aria2+es s*c, as attit*)e or percei1e) risC. T,ree of t,ese are
partic*+ar+: i-portant. T,e T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r is t,e )o-inant genera+ p*rpose 2e,a1io*r -o)e+
in ps:c,o+og:. T,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ an) ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor: are a+so pop*+ar in t,e ,ea+t,
2e,a1io*r +iterat*re.
T,ere is no agree-ent on w,ic, of t,ese ps:c,o+ogica+ -o)e+s is -ost s*ita2+e for an: specific t:pe of
2e,a1io*rA an) t,ere is ins*fficient )etai+ a2o*t para-eters t,at -a: 2e appropriate for epi)e-ic
inf+*enBa. T,*sA t,e: cannot 2e )irect+: a)apte) to )eter-ine protecti1e 2e,a1io*r for si-*+ate)
in)i1i)*a+s in t,e TELL ME -o)e+.
>e1ert,e+essA t,e: pro1i)e g*i)ance on t,e factors t,at s,o*+) 2e inc+*)e) in t,e si-*+ation -o)e+. So-e
of t,e e6p+anator: factors are s,are)A an) t,ere ,a1e 2een atte-pts to )e1e+op a t,eor: t,at co-2ines t,e
strengt,s of eac,. .,i+e t,e co-2ine) t,eor: ,as not 2een genera++: a)opte) in ps:c,o+og:A it pro1i)es
t,e -ost s*ita2+e fra-eworC for in)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r in t,e TELL ME -o)e+ 2eca*se it incorporates t,e
e6p+anator: factors t,at c,ange )*ring an epi)e-ic.
6.!.1 Theor. of -lanned +eha'iour
T,e T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r is t,e )o-inant ps:c,o+ogica+ -o)e+ a2o*t t,e inf+*ences on 2e,a1io*r.
#t is an e6tension of t,e ear+ier T,eor: of %easone) ActionA w,ic, asserts t,at intention is t,e 2est pre)ictor
of 2e,a1io*rA an) t,at intention is pre)icte) 2: t,ree factors ?=is,2einA (99'@. Accor)ing to t,is t,eor:A
intention is increase) in t,e presence of:
attit*)e: fa1o*ra2+e e1a+*ation a2o*t t,e specific 2e,a1io*rD
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s*2jecti1e nor-s: percei1e) socia+ press*re to perfor- t,e 2e,a1io*rA or appro1a+ fro- ot,er
peop+eD an)
2e,a1io*ra+ contro+: percei1e) ease of *n)ertaCing t,e 2e,a1io*r.
T,e T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r e6ten)s t,is *n)erstan)ing of 2e,a1io*r 2: inc+*)ing percei1e)
2e,a1io*ra+ wit, intention as t,e pre)ictors of 2e,a1io*rA in a))ition to its ro+e in pre)icting intention
?AjBenA (99(@. T,is e6tension was intro)*ce) to recognise t,at -an: factors can interfere wit, inten)e)
2e,a1io*rA an) t,at percei1e) contro+ is one wa: to esti-ate t,e +iCe+: i-pact of t,ese factors.
T,e -o)e+ )oes not si-p+: i)entif: t,e i-portant contri2*ting factors 2*t a+so proscri2es t,e wa: t,e: are
co-2ine). #n partic*+arA intention is a +inear co-2ination ?weig,te) s*-@ of attit*)eA nor-s an) contro+. #f
2e,a1io*r can 2e -eas*re) n*-erica++: ?for e6a-p+eA a-o*nt of weig,t +ost@ rat,er t,an si-p+: as
w,et,er t,e 2e,a1io*r occ*rre)A it s,o*+) a+so 2e concept*a+ise) as a +inear co-2ination of its inp*tsA
intention an) contro+.
<owe1erA t,e para-eters associate) wit, eac, e6p+anator: 1aria2+e )epen) on 2ot, t,e 2e,a1io*r to 2e
pre)icte) an) t,e sit*ation ?AjBenA (99(@. A+soA pre)icti1e power 1aries consi)era2+:A wit, a -ajor re1iew
of (8' e-pirica+ st*)ies fin)ing t,atA on a1erageA 27M of t,e 1ariation in 2e,a1io*r is e6p+aine) 2: t,e
propose) e6p+anator: 1aria2+es ?Ar-itage an) !onnerA 233(@. T,*sA on+: t,e str*ct*re can 2e a)apte) for
t,e TELL ME -o)e+A an) t,ere is +i-ite) g*i)ance on t,e act*a+ n*-2ers to *se to *se in potentia+ r*+es to
contro+ 2e,a1io*r.
6.!.! 7ealth +elief Model
=or pre1entati1e ,ea+t, 2e,a1io*rA an i-portant a+ternati1e is t,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ ?%osenstocCA (974@.
T,is asserts t,at 2e,a1io*r arises fro- two )i-ensions t,at -oti1ate action 4 s*scepti2i+it: an) se1erit: 4
an) two t,at )eter-ine t,e action to 2e taCen 4 2enefits an) 2arriers. T,ere is a+so so-e *n)er+:ing Gc*e to
actionE or trigger ?s*c, as s:-pto-s or e6pos*re to -e)ia@ to sti-*+ate t,e nee) for a )ecision at a++.
T,ere is so-e e1i)ence t,at t,e -o)e+ ,as on+: +i-ite) pre)icti1e power ?FanB an) 5ecCerA (984@. T,is is at
+east part+: 2eca*se t,e -o)e+ is pri-ari+: )escripti1eD t,ere are no stan)ar)s a2o*t ,ow to -eas*re eac,
of t,e fo*r inp*t factorsA ,ow to co-2ine t,e- into a pre)iction of 2e,a1io*rA an) on+: +i-ite) researc,
a2o*t t,e triggers. Two re1iews foc*sse) specifica++: on t,is iss*e ?<arrison et a+.A (992D !arpenterA 23(3@
fo*n) t,at p*2+is,e) st*)ies )o not s*pport t,e *se of <5M as a pre)icti1e -o)e+.
6.!.& -rotection Moti'ation Theor.
;rotection Moti1ation T,eor: ?Ma))*6 an) %ogersA (983@ an) re+ate) t,eories s*c, as t,e E6ten)e)
;ara++e+ ;rocess Mo)e+ ?.itteA (992@ foc*s on t,e ro+e of t,reat in e6p+aining pre1entati1e ,ea+t,
2e,a1io*r. T,e: arg*e t,at fear -oti1ates intentA 2*t 2e,a1io*r on+: occ*rs if t,ere is an effecti1e re-e):
a1ai+a2+e. #f t,reat is ,ig, 2*t capacit: to cope +owA ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor: s*ggests t,at )enia+ or
ot,er -a+a)apti1e 2e,a1io*r wi++ occ*r instea).
T,ere are si6 e6p+anator: 1aria2+es constr*cte) as two gro*ps of t,ree 1aria2+esA appraising t,reat an)
coping strateg: respecti1e+:. T,e +iCe+i,oo) of 2e,a1io*r is a +inear co-2ination of t,ese 1aria2+es an)
increases in t,e presence of:
1*+nera2i+it:: percei1e) +iCe+i,oo) t,at t,e t,reat persona++: app+iesD
se1erit:: percei1e) serio*sness of conse/*ences of t,e t,reatD
fear aro*sa+: +e1e+ of worr: a2o*t t,e t,reatD an)
response efficac:: 2e+ief t,at t,e reco--en)e) 2e,a1io*r wi++ effecti1e+: )ea+ wit, t,e t,reatD
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22
se+f4efficac:: percei1e) ease of *n)ertaCing t,e 2e,a1io*rD an)
a2sence of costs or 2arriers t,at interfere wit, *n)ertaCing t,e 2e,a1io*r.
T,ere is e-pirica+ s*pport t,at t,e fra-eworC is *sef*+ in e6p+aining e6isting ongoing 2e,a1io*rA 2*t +ess
s*pport for its *se in pre)icting f*t*re 2e,a1io*r ?Mi+ne et a+.A 2333@. #n partic*+arA t,e t,reat appraisa+
e+e-ents are on+: weaC+: pre)icti1eA 2*t t,is co*+) 2e part+: )*e to )iffic*+ties in 1ar:ing percei1e)
se1erit:.
6.!.6 Combinin( )s.cholo(ical theories
T,e )ifferent e-p,ases of t,ese t,eories ref+ects t,e 1ariet: of ,*-an 2e,a1io*rs. As a genera+ p*rpose
fra-eworCA t,e T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r is e6pecte) to app+: to +eis*re acti1ities s*c, as p+a:ing 1i)eo
ga-esA effort an) capacit: )ri1en 2e,a1io*r s*c, as getting a ,ig, gra)e in a *ni1ersit: s*2jectA as we++ as
,ea+t, re+ate) 2e,a1io*r s*c, as weig,t +oss ?AjBenA (99(@. #n contrastA t,e ot,er two t,eories foc*s on
,ea+t, specific factors s*c, as se1erit:. #n an en1iron-ent of se1era+ co-peting t,eories a2o*t 2e,a1io*rA it
is )iffic*+t for po+ic: -aCers to i)entif: ,ow 2est to enco*rage )esira2+e ,ea+t, 2e,a1io*rs.
#n a (992 worCs,op sponsore) 2: t,e ?"S@ >ationa+ #nstit*te of Menta+ <ea+t,A +ea)ing s*pporters of
)ifferent t,eories )isc*sse) t,e o1er+ap an) reac,e) consens*s on eig,t i-portant factors t,at e6p+ain
1ariations in 2e,a1io*r ?=is,2einA (99'@. 8f t,eseA one is t,e intention to perfor- t,e 2e,a1io*rA two
concern capacit: to act on t,e intentionA an) t,e re-aining fi1e concern t,e strengt, an) )irection of t,e
intention.
T,is consens*s pro1i)es a fra-eworC wit,in w,ic, to *n)erstan) 2e,a1io*r rat,er t,an a rep+ace-ent
-o)e+. =or t,e p*rpose of operationa+ising 2e,a1io*r in a si-*+ation -o)e+A t,e consens*s recognition t,at
so-e of t,e e6p+anator: factors inc+*)e) in separate -o)e+s are essentia++: t,e sa-e factor is partic*+ar+:
re+e1ant. =or e6a-p+eA t,e attit*)e -eas*re fro- t,e T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r is 1er: si-i+ar to t,e
co-2ination of 2enefits an) 2arriers fro- t,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+. .,i+e ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor:
was not inc+*)e) in t,is reconci+iationA it o1er+aps s*2stantia++: wit, t,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ wit,A for
e6a-p+eA t,reat appraisa+ a))ing on+: t,e e-otiona+ aspect of worr: to t,e -oti1ation factors of se1erit:
an) s*scepti2i+it:.
#nstea) of co-2ining t,e strengt,s of eac, t,eor:A anot,er approac, is to se+ect a sing+e t,eor: 2ase) on
its s*perior perfor-ance for t,e specific 2e,a1io*r of interest. At +east t,ree st*)ies ?8+i1er an) 5ergerA
(979D Qijtregtop et a+.A 2339D M:ers an) Goo)winA 23((@ ,a1e teste) inf+*ences fro- 2ot, t,e T,eor: of
;+anne) 5e,a1io*r an) t,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ for pre)icting 1accination against an inf+*enBa epi)e-icA
a+t,o*g, t,e: *se) )ifferent /*estions to -eas*re t,ose 1aria2+es. T,ese t,ree st*)ies consistent+: fo*n)
t,at e+e-ents of -ore t,an one fra-eworC are i-portant in 1accination intentions. A++ fo*n) t,at attit*)e
an) s*2jecti1e nor-s fro- T,eor: of ;+anne) 5e,a1io*r 1aria2+es are i-portant pre)ictors an) t,at
pre)icti1e power increase) wit, t,e a))ition of 1aria2+es fro- t,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+. <owe1erA t,e
partic*+ar a))itiona+ 1aria2+es )iffere) 2etween st*)iesA wit, se1erit:A s*scepti2i+it:A an) percei1e) 1accine
efficac: eac, fo*n) i-portant in two of t,e st*)ies. T,is pro1i)es f*rt,er s*pport t,at a ,:2ri) -o)e+ is
-ost appropriate for t,e TELL ME si-*+ation.
S:ste-atic re1iews of ps:c,o+ogica+ factors associate) wit, 1accination against epi)e-ic inf+*enBa *sing
t,e fra-eworC of ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor: ?5is, et a+.A 23((D TELL MEA 23(2@ fo*n) si-i+ar res*+ts.
T,e: i)entifie) t,e t,reat appraisa+ 1aria2+es of s*scepti2i+it:A se1erit: an)A to a +esser e6tentA worr:A to 2e
s*pporte) 2: e1i)ence as associate) wit, 1accination. =or coping appraisa+A t,e 1aria2+es of efficac:A
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1accine safet: ?inc+*)ing re+igio*s pro,i2ition i-p+ications@A tr*st in go1ern-ent or ,ea+t,care professiona+
a)1iceA an) socia+ nor-s were a++ fo*n) to significant factors.
T,ere are fewer st*)ies a2o*t t,e ps:c,o+ogica+ factors t,at are associate) wit, non41accination 2e,a1io*r
to protect against epi)e-ic inf+*enBaA s*c, as ,an) ,:giene or wearing face-asCs. <owe1erA s:ste-atic
re1iews ?5is, an) Mic,ieA 23(3D TELL MEA 23(2@ reporte) si-i+ar sets of re+e1ant factors as for 1accinationA
a+so wit,in t,e fra-eworC of ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor:.
6.!.8 0)erationalisin( indi'idual beha'iour
T,e 1aria2+es t,at -*st 2e inc+*)e) in t,e TELL ME -o)e+ to si-*+ate in)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r are not si-p+:
t,ose t,at contri2*te to t,e 2e,a1io*rA t,e: -*st a+so c,ange o1er ti-e. T,ose t,at are i-portant in
pre)icting 2e,a1io*r at an: specific point in ti-e 2*t are fi6e) ,a1e a constant effect on t,e pre)icte)
2e,a1io*r an) can 2e e6c+*)e). T,ere are t,ree processes t,at create c,angeA co--*nication an) t,e
progress of t,e epi)e-ic.
T,ere are t,ree e6p+anator: 1aria2+es fro- t,e ,:2ri) ps:c,o+ogica+ t,eor: t,at are to 2e inc+*)e) in t,e
TELL ME -o)e+ r*+es a2o*t in)i1i)*a+s a)opting protecti1e 2e,a1io*r:
attit*)e: s*scepti2+e to c,ange fro- co--*nication ?wit, -essages s*c, as G1accination protects
:o*r fa-i+:E@A t,e attit*)e 1aria2+e is inten)e) to co1er t,e e6pecte) 2enefits of t,e 2e,a1io*r an)
2arriers to its a)optionD
s*2jecti1e nor-s: s*scepti2+e to c,ange fro- co--*nication ?wit, -essages s*c, as G:o*r fa-i+:
e6pects :o* to 1accinateE@ an) 1isi2+e c,anges in 2e,a1io*r as t,e epi)e-ic progressesA t,e nor-s
1aria2+e is inten)e) to co1er t,e e6pectations of ot,ers to a)opt t,e 2e,a1io*rD
t,reat perception: s*scepti2+e to c,ange as t,e epi)e-ic progressesA t,reat is inten)e) to co1er
2ot, s*scepti2i+it: an) se1erit:.
#n a))itionA tr*st wi++ 2e inc+*)e) in as one of t,e inp*ts to attit*)e rat,er t,an )irect+: to 2e,a1io*r. T,is is
s*scepti2+e to c,ange fro- fai+*res in co--*nication or *ne6pecte) e1entsA an) is inten)e) to co1er
wi++ingness to 2e pers*a)e) 2: ,ea+t, a*t,orit: co--*nication.
T,e sa-e -o)e+ str*ct*re wi++ 2e *se) for 1accination an) non41accination protecti1e 2e,a1io*r. <owe1erA
t,ere wi++ 2e separate -o)e+ processes for eac,A wit, t,e para-eters ca+i2rate) for t,e specific t:pe of
2e,a1io*r. Separating t,e 2e,a1io*rs f*rt,er or specif:ing )etai+e) s*2pop*+ations wo*+) -aCe t,e -o)e+
-ore co-p+icate)A ,ar)er to *n)erstan)A an) re/*ire s*2stantia+ infor-ation a2o*t )ifferences 2etween
t,ese 2e,a1io*rs wit,in t,e sa-e pop*+ation an) 2etween s*2pop*+ations.
T,e c,oice of ,ow to co-2ine t,e e6p+anator: 1aria2+es an) -aCe t,e 2e,a1io*r )ecisions ?for e6a-p+eA
weig,te) s*- or +ogistic@ wi++ 2e -a)e )*ring ca+i2ration 2ase) on t,e a1ai+a2+e )ata. %egar)+ess of t,is
c,oiceA t,ree a))itiona+ para-eters wi++ 2e re/*ire) for t,e t,res,o+)s at w,ic, a si-*+ate) person seeCs
1accination ?5
$
@A a)opts ?5
R
@ or ceases ?5
4
@ non41accination protecti1e 2e,a1io*r.
6.& Simulatin( the in)uts to indi'idual beha'iour
#n)i1i)*a+s a)opt 2e,a1io*r 2ase) on t,eir own sit*ationA persona+ e6perienceA an) 2e+iefs. T,e in)i1i)*a+
is -ore +iCe+: to a)opt t,e 2e,a1io*r if t,eir attit*)e 1a+*e is ,ig,A perception of nor-s is ,ig, an) t,reat is
,ig,. T,reat is a co-2ination of )isease se1erit: an) +oca+ pre1a+ence. Eac, of t,ese inf+*ences respon)s to
c,anges in t,e si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+Es sit*ationA s*c, as recei1ing co--*nication or progress of t,e
epi)e-ic. =*rt,erA t,e i-pact of co--*nication is -o)erate) 2: t,e +e1e+ of tr*st in t,e co*rse of t,at
co--*nication. %*+es are re/*ire) to -o)e+ t,e i-pact of t,ose sit*ationa+ c,anges.
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T,e co--*nication aspects of t,e -o)e+ wi++ operate on si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s. T,ese in)i1i)*a+s wi++ 2e
)ifferentiate) wit, respect to ,ea+t, stat*s ?G,ig, risCE :es or no@ an) w,et,er t,e: are a ,ea+t,care
professiona+. T,ese si-p+ifications capt*re t,e Ce: aspects of )e-ograp,ic an) ,ea+t, c,aracteristics t,at
are associate) wit, )ifferent inf+*enBa re+ate) 2e,a1io*rs in t,e pop*+ation.
6.&.1 0)erationalisin( attitude
An in)i1i)*a+Es attit*)e is affecte) 2: -an: factorsA inc+*)ing ,ea+t, stat*sA c*+t*reA t,eir *n)erstan)ing of
t,e rea+ or percei1e) risCs an) t,e )egree of tr*st t,e: ,a1e in t,e a*t,ors of re+e1ant -essages. M*c, of
t,e +iterat*re a2o*t attit*)e c,ange e6a-ines ,ow t,e co--*nicate) -essage is processe) an)
conse/*ent i-p+ications for ,ow -essages s,o*+) 2e )esigne) to -a6i-ise attit*)e c,ange ?5o,ner an)
DicCe+A 23((@. <owe1erA t,is )oes not pro1i)e t,e necessar: t,eoretica+ 2acCgro*n) to si-*+ate t,e a-o*nt
of c,ange) in)*ce) 2: an: specific -essage. #n t,e a2sence of specific t,eoretica+ g*i)ance a2o*t effect
siBeA t,e -o)e+ +ogic r*+es are 2ase) on t,e Socia+ F*)ge-ent O #n1o+1e-ent T,eor:.
Socia+ F*)ge-ent O #n1o+1e-ent T,eor: ?S,erif et a+.A (97'@ asserts t,at t,e i-pact of co--*nication
)epen)s on two Ce: factorsA t,e position of t,e co--*nication an) t,e +atit*)e of acceptance for t,e
recei1er. !oncept*a++:A attit*)ina+ positions ,a1e a 1a+*e o1er so-e range. 5ot, t,e person recei1ing t,e
-essage an) t,e -essage itse+f ,a1e positions. T,e attit*)e of t,e person recei1ing t,e -essage c,anges
towar) t,e position of t,e -essageA 2*t on+: if t,e -essage ,as a s*fficient+: si-i+ar position to not si-p+:
2e rejecte). T,e +atit*)e of acceptance refers to t,e range of positions t,at are consi)ere) an) integrate)
into t,e recei1erEs *p)ate) attit*)e.
=or e6a-p+eA consi)er a sit*ation w,ere t,e person ,as an origina+ attit*)e position of 3.' ?wit,in t,e range
3 to (@ an) +atit*)e of acceptance of 3.3. T,is in)icates t,at t,e: are co-p+ete+: *n)eci)e) 2*t an e6tre-e
-essage ?wit, position S3.2 or T3.8@ wi++ ,a1e no effect. A -essage wit, a position of 3.7 wi++ res*+t in t,e
personEs attit*)e s,ifting to a -ore positi1e 1a+*e so-ew,ere 2etween 3.' an) 3.7. <owe1erA a -essage
wit, a position of 3.9 wi++ not in)*ce attit*)e c,ange. #n t,e 1accination conte6tA a 3.7 -essage -ig,t 2e
si-i+ar to G1accination is an effecti1e wa: to protect :o* an) :o*r fa-i+:A 2*t we recognise t,at so-e
peop+e ,a1e concerns so :o* s,o*+) ta+C to :o*r )octor if :o* are *ns*reE an) a 3.9 -essage -ig,t 2e
si-i+ar to Gpeop+e opposing 1accination are ignorant an) irresponsi2+eA get 1accinate)E.
=or -essages wit,in t,e +atit*)e of acceptanceA t,e a-o*nt of c,ange in)*ce) is proportiona+ to t,e
)iscrepanc: 2etween t,e personEs e6isting attit*)e position an) t,e position of t,e -essage. T,*sA a
greater )ifference in position wi++ res*+t in -ore c,ange. #n a))ition to t,e e1i)ence )irect+: s*pporting
Socia+ F*)ge-ent O #n1o+1e-ent T,eor:A t,ere is e-pirica+ s*pport for c,ange in attit*)e proportiona+ to
)iscrepanc: ?An)ersonA (97(D Danes et a+.A (978@.
.it,o*t so-e -et,o) for e6c+*)ing ,ig,+: )iscrepant -essagesA t,e proportiona+ c,ange in attit*)e wo*+)
+ea) to a++ in)i1i)*a+s a)opting t,e sa-e position if it was repeate) eno*g,A wit, t,ose initia++: strong+:
)ifferent a)j*sting t,eir attit*)e fair+: /*icC+:. T,is is c+ear+: inconsistent wit, t,e e6perience in
1accinationA w,ere peop+e ,a1e a range of attit*)es ?TELL MEA 23(2@. <owe1erA t,ere is no agree-ent on
,ow to e6c+*)e or )isco*nt t,ese -essagesA )espite specific co-parison st*)ies ?Laroc,eA (977D =inC et a+.A
(983D Hap+owitB et a+.A (99(@. <enceA t,e re+ati1e+: si-p+e +atit*)e of acceptance wi++ 2e *se) in t,e
si-*+ation -o)e+.
Si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s wit,in t,e -o)e+ wi++ 2e assigne) two initia+ attit*)es as 1a+*es 2etween 3 an) (A
representing attit*)e towar) 1accination an) towar) non41accination protecti1e -eas*resA w,ic, inc+*)es
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2'
,an) ,:giene or socia+ )istancing. T,e initia+ attit*)es wi++ 2e 2ase) on s*r1e: infor-ation a2o*t
wi++ingness to a)opt protecti1e 2e,a1io*r wit,in re+e1ant s*2pop*+ations.
Attit*)e scores wi++ c,ange in response to -essages inc+*)e) in t,e inp*t co--*nication p+an wit, a
!ontent 1a+*e of G5enefitsE ?see Ta2+e (@A partic*+ar+: if t,e in)i1i)*a+ tr*sts t,e so*rce of t,e -essage. #f
attit*)e prior to co--*nication is s*fficient+: c+ose to f*++ acceptance ?t,at isA t,e -essage is treate) as
,a1ing an attit*)ina+ position of (@A t,en attit*)e score wi++ increase. T,e a-o*nt of c,ange is affecte) 2:
tr*st.
#n a))ition to t,e attit*)e c,ange in)*ce) 2: t,e for-a+ co--*nication p+an of t,e re+e1ant ,ea+t,
a*t,orit:A t,e -o)e+ wi++ a+so inc+*)e attit*)e c,ange arising fro- infor-a+ co--*nicationA s*c, as
)isc*ssion wit, frien)s or e6pos*re to -e)ia. T,e sa-e -at,e-atica+ approac, wi++ 2e *se)A wit, )ifferent
para-eter 1a+*es for position of -essageA tr*st an) constant of proportiona+it:.
T,e c,ange in attit*)e is gi1en 2::

( )
0 0 0
0
0
1

1
m
A A A A
A
A
A
τα θ
θ





+ − ≥ −
=
< −
?(@
wit,: A
0
for prior attit*)e
A
m
for attit*)e position of -essage
A for post co--*nication attit*)e
τ for tr*st in -essage so*rceA inc+*)ing -essage /*a+it: effects
α for constant of proportiona+it:A )epen)s on -essage so*rce
ϑ for +atit*)e of acceptance
τA α an) ϑ are a)j*sta2+e
=or for-a+ co--*nication p+an -essages enco*raging protecti1e 2e,a1io*r ?!ontent 1a+*e of G5enefitsE@A
attit*)e position wi++ 2e set to (. =or infor-a+ co--*nicationA attit*)e position wi++ 2e ran)o-+: )rawn
fro- t,e attit*)e )istri2*tion for t,e entire si-*+ate) pop*+ation.
!o--*nication p+an -essages wi++ ,a1e no i-pact for t,ose in)i1i)*a+s a+rea): strong+: oppose) to t,e
2e,a1io*rA *n+ess specifica++: targete) ?-essage ,as Target 1a+*e of GAnti41accinationE fro- see Ta2+e (@.
T,ese -essages wi++ 2e -o)e++e) as if t,e: ,a1e a -o)erate attit*)e position.
6.&.! 0)erationalisin( trust
Eac, in)i1i)*a+ wi++ ,a1e tr*st 1a+*es for t,e 1ario*s c,anne+s in t,e co--*nication p+anA an) a+so for
infor-a+ c,anne+s ?s*c, as frien)sA or socia+ -e)ia@. =or for-a+ co--*nicationA -essages t,at pro1i)e
infor-ation ?!ontent 1a+*e of GEpi)e-ic stat*sE@ wi++ increase tr*st. <owe1erA tr*st can 2e )a-age) 2:
e1ents inc+*)e) as part of t,e scenario ?see section 3.(.3@.
6.&.& 0)erationalisin( sub9ecti'e norms
S*2jecti1e nor-s )escri2e ,ow a person 2e+ie1es fa-i+:A frien)s an) ot,er persona++: i-portant peop+e
e6pect t,e- to 2e,a1e an) t,e e6tent to w,ic, t,e: fee+ co-pe++e) to confor-. T,e nor- wi++ 2e
operationa+ise) as t,e a1erage attit*)e of in)i1i)*a+s in t,e sa-e geograp,ic +ocationA toget,er wit, so-e
contri2*tion fro- a1erage attit*)e in ot,er +ocations. #f t,ere is a -essage in t,e co--*nication p+an t,at
e-p,asises nor-s ?!ontent 1a+*e of G>or-sE@A t,en percei1e) nor-s wi++ 2e ,ig,er t,an t,e weig,te)
a1erage of act*a+ attit*)es.
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;ercei1e) s*2jecti1e nor-s is gi1en 2::

( )
( )
ω ω σ
ω ω







+ − +
=
+ −
if nor-s -essage

if not nor-s -essage
(
(
k i k
k i k
A A
N
A A
?2@
wit,: N for percei1e) nor-
A
k
for a1erage attit*)e in region k ?w,ere in)i1i)*a+ +ocate)@
A
i≠k
for a1erage attit*)e in ot,er regions
ω for weig,t gi1en to own region
σ for -essage i-pact
ω an) σ are a)j*sta2+e
6.&.6 0)erationalisin( threat
;ercei1e) t,reat wi++ ref+ect 2ot, s*scepti2i+it: an) se1erit:A wit, an a)j*st-ent inten)e) to capt*re
re+ati1e an6iet: ?t,at isA so-e peop+e nat*ra++: worr: -ore t,an ot,ers@. Se1erit: wi++ 2e -o)e++e) fro- t,e
case fata+it: rate an) wi++ t,erefore c,ange as t,e epi)e-ic progresses. <owe1erA ear+: )eat,s an) )eat,s
t,at are geograp,ica++: c+ose wi++ 2e gi1en a))itiona+ weig,t.
=o++owing t,e -et,o) of ?D*r,a- an) !as-anA 23(2@A s*scepti2i+it: wi++ 2e -o)e++e) wit, a )isco*nte)
c*-*+ati1e inci)ence ti-e series. T,at isA percei1e) s*scepti2i+it: wi++ increase as t,e epi)e-ic sprea)s 2*t
recent new cases wi++ i-pact -ore strong+: t,an o+)er cases. T,is approac, a+so a++ows percei1e)
s*scepti2i+it: to increase 2*t t,en gra)*a++: fa)e awa: after t,e peaC ,as passe). E6p+icit -o)e++ing of t,e
epi)e-ic in t,e TELL ME -o)e+ wi++ a++ow geograp,ica+ infor-ation to -o)if: percei1e) s*scepti2i+it:
rat,er t,an re+: entire+: on nationa+ c*-*+ati1e inci)ence. T,at isA s*scepti2i+it: wi++ 2e ,ig,er for t,e
si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s t,at are c+ose to t,e new cases t,an for t,ose f*rt,er awa:.
;ercei1e) risC is gi1en 2::

( ) ( )
δ
− −
= +
= + −
( (
(
t t t
t t tk
T
s s c
r m gs g s
?3@
wit,: T
t
for percei1e) t,reat at ti-e t
s
t
for s*scepti2i+it: at ti-e t
c
t
for cases ?inci)ence@ at ti-e t
δ for )isco*nt t,at app+ies to prior inci)ence
m for -orta+it: rate o1er a++ prior cases
g for weig,t gi1en to own +ocation
r for re+ati1e worr: ?nor-a+A centre) on (@
mA δ an) g are a)j*sta2+e
6.6 Simulatin( e)idemic )ro(ress
#n contrast to protecti1e 2e,a1io*rA w,ic, is si-*+ate) for in)i1i)*a+sA t,e epi)e-ic is -o)e++e) at t,e +e1e+
of regions. A spatia++: e6p+icit 1ersion of a stan)ar) epi)e-io+ogica+ -o)e+ wi++ 2e *se) t,at -at,e-atica++:
esti-ates t,e n*-2er of peop+e transitioning 2etween )ifferent epi)e-ic states. T,e epi)e-ic progress
inf+*ences 2e,a1io*r ?t,ro*g, risC perception as )escri2e) in section 4.3.4@. #n)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r inf+*ences
epi)e-ic progress t,ro*g, t,e para-eter for force of infection. T,*sA t,ere is -*t*a+ interaction 2etween
t,e )ecisions taCen 2: in)i1i)*a+s an) t,e epi)e-ic.
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6.6.1 Re(ional SEIR model
#n t,e si-p+est -at,e-atica+ -o)e+sA peop+e start in t,e s*scepti2+e ?S@ stateA 2eco-e infecte) an)
si-*+taneo*s+: infectio*s ?#@ an) are e1ent*a++: re-o1e) fro- ca+c*+ations ?%@ 2eca*se t,e: eit,er reco1er
an) 2eco-e i--*ne or t,e: )ie. As inf+*enBa can in1o+1e a significant inc*2ation perio) )*ring w,ic, a
person is e6pose) ?E@ 2*t not :et infectio*sA t,e SE#% co-part-ent -o)e+ is -ore appropriate.
Ass*-ing t,ose w,o ,a1e reco1ere) fro- t,e infection are f*++: i--*neA t,e SE#% -o)e+ ?ignoring t,e
re+ati1e+: s+ow processes of 2irt,s an) )eat,s fro- non4epi)e-ic ca*ses@ is gi1en 2: t,e fo++owing set of
)ifferentia+ e/*ations ?DieC-ann an) <eester2eeCA 2333@:

β
β λ
λ γ
γ
= −
= −
= −
=
dS
SI
dt
dE
SI E
dt
dI
E R
dt
dI
R
dt
?4@
wit,: SA EA # an) % for t,e proportion of t,e pop*+ation in eac, epi)e-ic state
β for force of infection ?trans-ission pro2a2i+it: an) n*-2er of contacts@
λ for transition rate fro- E to # ?so a1erage )*ration of e6pos*re perio) is (Oλ@
γ for transition rate fro- # to % ?so a1erage )*ration of infectio*s perio) is (Oγ@
βA B an) γ are a)j*sta2+e
T,e )ifference e/*ations for- of t,ese e/*ations wi++ 2e app+ie) wit,in eac, geograp,ic region of t,e TELL
ME si-*+ation to ca+c*+ate t,e n*-2er of peop+e in eac, epi)e-ic state o1er ti-e. #nter4region -igration
?or proportion of contacts in ot,er regions@ inf+*ences t,e +ocation of new infections. #n t,e a2sence of s*c,
-igrationA t,e epi)e-ic is *na2+e to sprea) 2etween spatia+ regions.
Si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s wi++ 2e Ginfecte)E wit, pro2a2i+it: e/*a+ to t,e e6pos*re rate in t,eir specific region.
.,i+e t,e epi)e-ic stat*s ,as no effect on si-*+ate) 2e,a1io*r for in)i1i)*a+sA app+:ing t,e epi)e-ic
e/*ations a++ows t,e si-*+ation to report 2e,a1io*r 2: epi)e-ic stat*s.
6.6.! Influence of )rotecti'e beha'iour
T,e effect on t,e epi)e-ic of t,e si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s a)opting protecti1e 2e,a1io*r is app+ie) 2:
re)*cing t,e force of infection ?β in e/*ation ?4@@ to taCe t,e protecti1e 2e,a1io*r into acco*nt. T,e
proportion of t,e in)i1i)*a+s in t,e re+e1ant region w,o ,a) a)opte) protecti1e 2e,a1io*r an) t,e efficac:
of t,at 2e,a1io*r are app+ie) wit,:

( ) β β = − (
k k
B e ?'@
wit,: βk for force of infection operating in region k
β for *n)er+:ing force of infection for epi)e-ic
Bk for proportion of in)i1i)*a+s in region k w,o ,a1e a)opte) 2e,a1io*r B
e for efficac: of 2e,a1io*r B
e is a)j*sta2+e
T,ere wi++ a+so 2e pro1ision in t,e interface to a++ow genera+ protecti1e po+icies to 2e i-p+e-ente) s*c, as
sc,oo+ c+os*res. T,ese wi++ 2e -o)e++e) 2: a)j*sting t,e *n)er+:ing force of infection in accor)ance wit,
t,e ?inp*t@ state) efficac: of t,e po+ic:.
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28
8 :ata Sources and Calibration
T,e -o)e+ -*st 2e ca+i2rate) 2: a)j*sting -o)e+ para-eters so t,at t,e si-*+ate) 2e,a1io*r is rea+istic.
=or -an: para-etersA )ata is a1ai+a2+e a2o*t t,at specific para-eter. .,ere t,e para-eter is a)j*sta2+e
2: t,e -o)e+ *serA t,e 1a+*e 2ase) on )ata wi++ 2e *se) as t,e )efa*+t setting. <owe1erA t,ere are a+so
-an: para-eters for w,ic, )ata is not )irect+: a1ai+a2+e for ca+i2ration. #n s*c, a sit*ationA t,e para-eter
wi++ 2e ca+i2rate) 2: r*nning t,e -o)e+ wit, )ifferent 1a+*es an) se+ecting t,e 1a+*e t,at generates t,e
-ost reasona2+e 2e,a1io*r.
#n or)er to ca+i2rate t,e -o)e+A )ata is re/*ire) in t,ree 2roa) categories:
;op*+ation )ensit: an) )e-ograp,ic str*ct*reA partic*+ar+: t,e proportion of t,e pop*+ation in ,ig,
risC or ot,er target gro*psD
Attit*)es towar) 1accination an) specific protecti1e actions in response to inf+*enBa risCD an)
<istorica+ )ata concerning protecti1e 2e,a1io*r )*ring past epi)e-ics.
T,e ca+i2ration process wi++ a+so inc+*)e sensiti1it: testing. T,is testing wi++ i)entif: t,e -o)e+ para-eters
t,at ,a1e t,e -ost inf+*ence on t,e si-*+ation res*+ts an) ,ence re/*ire t,e greatest acc*rac: in setting
t,eir 1a+*es.
8.1 Calibration
T,e -o)e+ )esign inc+*)es a s*2stantia+ n*-2er of para-eters t,at -*st 2e set to 1a+*es to ref+ect t,e rea+
wor+) re+ations,ips t,at t,e -o)e+ r*+es are inten)e) to si-*+ate. T,is inc+*)es a++ t,e 1a+*es in t,e
e/*ations in section 4 t,at are referre) to as Ga)j*sta2+eE. #n a))itionA appropriate 1a+*es -*st 2e set for
pop*+ation str*ct*re an) so-e of t,e para-eters concerning co--*nication effect. T,e para-eters for
w,ic, 1a+*es -*st 2e assigne) are +iste) at Ta2+e 4A toget,er wit, infor-ation a2o*t ,ow t,e )efa*+t
1a+*es are e6pecte) to 2e )eri1e) ?so*rce@ an) w,et,er t,e 1a+*e wi++ 2e accessi2+e t,ro*g, t,e *ser
interface.
;op*+ation infor-ation is a1ai+a2+e fro- officia+ )atasets p*2+is,e) 2: go1ern-entsA accessi2+e fro- G#S
)ata stores s*c, as SEDA! ?at ,ttp:OOse)ac.ciesin.co+*-2ia.e)*O@. Attit*)e an) tr*st infor-ation ?inc+*)ing
attit*)e for Ce: s*2pop*+ations@ ,as 2een s*--arise) in t,e +iterat*re re1iew con)*cte) as part of .;(
?TELL MEA 23(2@. So-e para-eters are set to specific 1aria2+es 2eca*se of t,e wa: t,e -o)e+ r*+es are
)esigne) an) no setting is re/*ire).
T,e para-eters for t,e epi)e-ic progress e+e-ents of t,e -o)e+ are part of t,e inp*t scenario t,at
pro1i)e t,e conte6t wit,in w,ic, co--*nication p+ans are to 2e assesse). T,*sA t,eir 1a+*es ref+ect t,e
partic*+ar scenario ?s*c, as ,ig, -orta+it: 2*t +ow pro2a2i+it: of trans-ission@. >e1ert,e+essA )efa*+t 1a+*es
wi++ 2e pro1i)e) for t,e -o)e+ t,at pro1i)e so-e g*i)ance on appropriate inp*t 1a+*es. T,ese )efa*+t
1a+*es wi++ 2e 2ase) on p*2+is,e) +iterat*re esti-ating t,e 1a+*es for past inf+*enBa epi)e-ics s*c, as SA%S
?%i+e:A 2333@.
T,e para-eters for t,e effect of co--*nication an) factors contri2*ting to protecti1e 2e,a1io*r are -ore
)iffic*+t. So-e st*)ies t,at pro1i)e i-pact of co--*nication ca-paigns ?%*2in et a+.A 23(3@A an) )ata -a:
a+so 2e a1ai+a2+e fro- ,ea+t, a*t,orities w,o ,a1e con)*cte) ?an) e1a+*ate)@ inf+*enBa ca-paigns.
"+ti-ate+:A ,owe1erA t,e re/*ire) )ata )oes not e6ist in t,e )etai+ re/*ire) as t,ere are few st*)iesA t,e:
-eas*re )ifferent attit*)es an) 2e,a1io*rsA an) on+: s*--ar: )ata are a1ai+a2+e for so-e. T,e -ost
appropriate approac, is t,erefore to 1ar: t,e para-eters o1er reasona2+e ranges an) co-pare t,e -o)e+
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29
o*tp*t to t,e +i-ite) )ata t,at report epi)e-ic progressA attit*)es an) 2e,a1io*r o1er ti-e. T,ese )ata
so*rces are s*--arise) at Ta2+e '.
Table 6, Model )arameters and sources for settin( 'alues
-arameter S.mbol Source ;umber Interface
;op*+ation )ensit: 8fficia+ S*2nationa+ >o
S*2pop*+ation proportions 8fficia+ >ationa+ >o
#nitia+ attit*)e A
3
.;( 2 ?2e,a1io*r@ >o
#nitia+ tr*st U .;( R Literat*re 7 ?c,anne+@ A)1ance)
Message attit*)e position A
-
Mo)e+ 3 >o
Attit*)e i-pact proportiona+it: V !a+i2ration 7 ?c,anne+@ A)1ance)
Attit*)e +atit*)e of acceptance W E6pert 2 ?2e,a1io*r@ 5asic
Tr*st increase wit, infor-ation E6pert ( A)1ance)
#-pact of pro2+e-s E6pert 9 A)1ance)
>or-s weig,ting for own region X E6pert 2 ?2e,a1io*r@ A)1ance)
>or-s i-pact of specific -essage Y E6pert 2 ?2e,a1io*r@ 5asic
S*scepti2i+it:A inci)ence !
t4(
Mo)e+ ( >o
S*scepti2i+it: )isco*nt Z !a+i2ration ( A)1ance)
E6pecte) -orta+it: ?case fata+it:@ - Literat*re ( 5asic
S*scepti2i+it: weig,ting +ocation g E6pert ( A)1ance)
%e+ati1e worr: r .;( ( >o
#n)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r inp*t weig,ts !a+i2ration 3 A)1ance)
#n)i1i)*a+ 2e,a1io*r t,res,o+)s 5
1
5
R
5
4
!a+i2ration 3 A)1ance)
Epi)e-ic: force of infection [ Literat*re ( 5asic
Epi)e-ic: transition rate E to # \ Literat*re ( 5asic
Epi)e-ic: transition rate # to % ] Literat*re ( 5asic
5e,a1io*r efficac: e Literat*re 2 ?2e,a1io*r@ 5asic
;o+ic: efficac: Ar2itrar: ( 5asic

Table 8, Time series $ith e)idemic and )rotecti'e beha'iour information
Reference Countr. Infection Attitude < +eha'iour
?5+en)on et a+.A 2334@ !ana)aA "SA SA%S <:gieneA )istancingA face-asC
?!ow+ing et a+.A 23(3@ <ong Hong <(>( <:gieneA )istancingA face-asC
?=errante et a+.A 23((@ #ta+: <(>( $accinationA )istancing
?La* et a+.A 2333@ <ong Hong SA%S <:gieneA )istancingA face-asC
?La* et a+.A 23(3@ <ong Hong <'>( <:gieneA )istancingA /*arantine
?%*2in et a+.A 23(3@ "nite) Hing)o- <(>( $accination
?.eer) et a+.A 23((@ T,e >et,er+an)s <(>( $accinationA non41accination

T,e 1a+*es for t,e para-eters t,at inf+*ence in)i1i)*a+ protecti1e 2e,a1io*r are +iCe+: to )iffer 2etween
2e,a1io*rs an) c*+t*res ?or co*ntries@ an) infections. T,*sA t,e a1ai+a2+e )ata are c+ear+: ina)e/*ate to
para-eterise t,e si-*+ation. <owe1erA t,e faci+it: to a)j*st para-eter 1a+*es wi++ ena2+e -o)e+ *sers to
*se t,eir j*)ge-ent to correct para-eters as re/*ire) toA for e6a-p+eA ass*-e t,e pop*+ation in t,eir
co*ntr: is -ore ?or +ess@ inf+*ence) 2: socia+ nor-s t,an in)icate) 2: t,e -o)e+. An a))itiona+ confo*n)ing
iss*e is t,at t,e )atasets t,at are a1ai+a2+e inc+*)e t,e effects of co--*nication an) t,e epi)e-ic )ata
inc+*)e t,e effects of a)opte) protecti1e 2e,a1io*r. T,*sA t,e *n)er+:ing para-eters wi++ 2e )iffic*+t to
e6tract.
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33
=ina++:A t,ere are se1era+ +ess i-portant para-eters for w,ic, no infor-ation is a1ai+a2+e an) 1ar:ing t,e-
wo*+) +ea) to too -an: para-eters in t,e ca+i2ration against t,e s-a++ n*-2er of ti-e series )atasets.
Defa*+t 1a+*es for t,ese wi++ 2e set 2ase) on )isc*ssion wit, e6pert staCe,o+)ers.
8.! Sensiti'it. anal.sis
Sensiti1it: ana+:sis wi++ 2e con)*cte) )*ring ca+i2ration to *n)erstan) t,e i-p+ications of t,e )ata scarcit:.
Sensiti1it: ana+:sis 1aries t,e 1a+*e of para-eters o1er t,eir p+a*si2+e ranges an) e6a-ines t,e effect on
-o)e+ res*+ts.
T,ere are too -an: para-eters in t,e TELL ME -o)e+ to assess a++ t,e co-2inations of p+a*si2+e 1a+*es.
T,*sA t,e sensiti1it: ana+:sis wi++ ,a1e two 2roa) sets of e6peri-ents. T,e first set wi++ 1ar: on+: one 1a+*e
at a ti-eA ,o+)ing a++ ot,er para-eters at t,eir )efa*+ts. T,is wi++ 2e r*n for a++ para-eters separate+:. T,e
secon) set wi++ 1ar: se1era+ of t,e Ce: para-eters ?partic*+ar+: t,ose associate) wit, attit*)e an)
2e,a1io*r c,ange@ to assess t,e interaction effect of t,ese para-eters.
T,e res*+ts of t,e sensiti1it: ana+:sis wi++ 2e inc+*)e) in t,e tec,nica+ )oc*-entation re+ease) wit, t,e
-o)e+. T,is wi++ pro1i)e g*i)ance on w,ic, para-eters are t,e ,ig,est priorit: for f*rt,er researc, ?s*c, as
specific )ata co++ection )*ring f*t*re epi)e-ics@. #n a))itionA t,e sensiti1e para-eters wi++ 2e ,ig,+ig,te) in
t,e *ser g*i)e.
= -artici)ation and Validation
T,ere is no genera+ approac, t,at can 2e app+ie) for -o)e+ 1a+i)ation 2eca*se w,at is appropriate )epen)s
f*n)a-enta++: on t,e p*rpose of t,e -o)e+ ?<o)ges an) DewarA (992D MossA 2337@. T,e TELL ME -o)e+
wi++ 2e assesse) against fo*r 2roa) t:pes of tests:
"ti+it:: Does t,e -o)e+ -eet t,e re/*ire-ents of t,e project0
=ace ?H+^g+A 2338@ or concept*a+ ?<eat, et a+.A 2339D SargentA 23(3@ 1a+i)it:: Are t,e -o)e+ )esign
an) res*+ts consistent wit, t,eor: an) are t,e: p+a*si2+e0
$erification ?Gi+2ertA 2338@: #s t,e )esign appropriate+: trans+ate) into -o)e+ co)e0
E-pirica+ ?H+^g+A 2338@ or operationa+ ?<eat, et a+.A 2339D SargentA 23(3@ 1a+i)it:: Do t,e -o)e+
res*+ts -atc, a1ai+a2+e )ata0
Aspects of t,is 1a+i)ation are to 2e con)*cte) 2: )ifferent gro*psA wit, -*+tip+e assess-ent w,ere possi2+e
?s*--arise) at Ta2+e 7@. T,e fo*r gro*ps are t,e -o)e++ers ?principa++: for tec,nica+ testing@A TELL ME
project partnersA ot,er s*2ject -atter e6perts an) ,ea+t, professiona+ foc*s gro*ps.
=.1 Sub9ect matter e/)ertise
Effecti1e -o)e+ )esign an) )e1e+op-ent re+ies on appropriate inc+*sion of e6pertise fro- se1era+ re+e1ant
s*2ject -atter areas s*c, as co--*nicationA ps:c,o+og:A p*2+ic ,ea+t, an) epi)e-io+og:. S*c, e6pertise is
to 2e accesse) t,ro*g, worCs,ops an) on4going co--*nication wit, two gro*ps: staCe,o+)ers in
epi)e-io+og: -anage-ent in t,e "nite) Hing)o- an) TELL ME project partners. A scenario p+anning
worCs,op was inc+*)e) in t,e origina+ TELL ME project p+an ?tasC T4.2@. T,is is to 2e s*pp+e-ente) wit, two
worCs,ops wit, potentia+ *sers of t,e -o)e+A se+ecte) TELL ME project partners an) a project partner fro-
t,e re+ate) E4!8M_E" project.
T,e first worCs,op was ,e+) on 3( F*+: 23(3 to )isc*ss t,e 2roa) -o)e+ +ogic ?=ig*re 2@ an) pre+i-inar:
interaction r*+es for fo*r of t,e -ost i-portant re+ations,ips. T,is worCs,op i)entifie) se1era+ a))itiona+
D4.2 Software Design
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3(
factors to consi)er in t,e +ogic. T,e )esign wi++ 2e refine) t,ro*g, in)i1i)*a+ )isc*ssions wit, re+e1ant
worCs,op participants an) )raft )esign )oc*-ents for co--ent 2: TELL ME project partners.
T,e worCs,op wit, TELL ME project partners ?tasC T4.2@ was con)*cte) wit, 1a+i)ation of t,e .;3
co--*nication fra-eworC in 8cto2er 23(3. T,is worCs,op s,ape) t,e initia+ )raft of t,e co--*nication
+ang*age an) ot,er aspects of scenario inp*ts. T,is )raft was circ*+ate) to project partners an) t,e
staCe,o+)er gro*p in Dece-2er 23(3 an) ,as 2een re1ise) accor)ing+: for section 3.(.
=o++owing constr*ction of t,e protot:pe -o)e+A a f*rt,er worCs,op wi++ 2e ,e+) wit, t,e staCe,o+)er gro*p
?appro6i-ate+: A*g*st 23(4@ to o2tain fina+ co--ent 2efore for-a+ *ser testing.
As we++ as t,ese for-a+ worCs,opsA )raft -o)e+s wi++ 2e -a)e a1ai+a2+e to s*2ject -atter e6pert
participants an) TELL ME project partners for co--ent. #n a))itionA -eetings wi++ 2e ,e+) wit, se+ecte)
p*2+ic ,ea+t, co--*nication professiona+s to )isc*ss t,e -o)e+ +ogicA )e-onstrate protot:pesA an) o2tain
s*ggestions for re1isions.
=.! 7ealth )rofessional focus (rou) testin(
8nce t,e protot:pe -o)e+ ,as 2een co-p+ete)A it wi++ 2e assesse) 2: two separate gro*ps of p*2+ic ,ea+t,
an) ,ea+t, co--*nication professiona+s w,o ,a1e not pre1io*s+: 2een e6pose) to t,e TELL ME -o)e+.
T,ese assess-ents are inc+*)e) in t,e )escription of worC as tasCs T4.4 ?E*ropean "nion@ an) T4.' ?"nite)
States of A-erica@. ;+anning for t,ese foc*s gro*ps is not co-p+ete.
At t,is stageA a++ foc*s gro*ps are to 2e str*ct*re) as 2.' ,o*rs )e-onstration an) )isc*ssion wit,
appro6i-ate+: (3 participants in eac, pane+. T,e first ,o*r is to inc+*)e )e-onstration of t,e -o)e+ an) a
/*estion session. T,e )e-onstration wo*+) inc+*)e scenarios to assist pane+ -e-2ers to assess w,et,er
t,e -o)e+ )e-onstrates e-pirica++: reasona2+e 2e,a1io*r. T,e re-aining ti-e is for )isc*ssion a2o*t ease
of *se an) reasona2+eness of res*+ts ?see Ta2+e 7A professiona+s gro*p@.
T,e c*rrent p+an for t,e "nite) States is 34' pane+s fro-:
(42 pane+s wit, representati1es fro- t,e !enter for Disease !ontro+D
( pane+ wit, State go1ern-ent ,ea+t, )irectorsD
( pane+ wit, practitionersD an)
( pane+ wit, officia+s fro- t,e =e)era+ Depart-ent of <ea+t, an) <*-an Ser1ices.
=or E*ropeA c*rrent p+ans for E*rope are to ,a1e at +east one pane+ wit, a -i6 of ,ea+t, agenc: officia+s an)
-e)ica+ professiona+s in eac, pane+ in association wit, a +arge E*ropean -e)ica+ conference. 8ptions for
a))itiona+ pane+s are 2eing e6p+ore).
A++ sessions are to 2e 1i)eotape) for ana+:sis. An: reco--en)ations for re1ising t,e -o)e+ are to 2e
s*--arise) an) pro1i)e) 2: en) >o1e-2er 23(4 to a++ow t,e -o)e+ to 2e re1ise) accor)ing+: 2efore
)e+i1er: in Fan*ar: 23('.
=.& Utilit.
T,e first gro*p of criteria concern *ti+it: of t,e -o)e+. T,ese assess w,et,er t,e -o)e+ -eets t,e
re/*ire-ents of t,e project. As note) at section (.(A t,e p*rpose of t,e -o)e+ is to assist )ecision -aCers
to co-pare )ifferent co--*nication p+ans. To ac,ie1e t,is p*rposeA t,e -o)e+ -*st -eet certain
f*nctiona+ re/*ire-ents:
#np*t 4 ;otentia+ co--*nication p+ans can 2e entere) into t,e -o)e+ for testingD
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8*tp*t 4 Mo)e+ to report t,e e6pecte) o*tco-es of t,e co--*nication p+an wit, respect to
properties of interestD an)
Accessi2i+it: 4 Mo)e+ a2+e to 2e *se) an) interprete) 2: officia+s )e1e+oping co--*nication p+ans.
T,ere are two t:pes of co--*nication p+ans to 2e consi)ere). T,e first are t,e pre)efine) scenarios
esta2+is,e) 2: t,e TELL ME project partners. As t,ese are )esigne) 2: t,e project partnersA t,eir s*ita2i+it:
is )eter-ine) 2: t,ose partners. T,e -o)e++ers are responsi2+e for confir-ing w,et,er eac, is a2+e to 2e
inp*t in t,e protot:pe -o)e+ an) ,ow. #n a))itionA it wo*+) 2e )esira2+e t,at t,ere 2e so-e f+e6i2i+it: to tr:
o*t new scenarios 2ase) on stan)ar)ise) )escriptions of s*c, e+e-ents as -essage content an) trigger
con)itions. T,e s*2ject -atter e6perts ?at t,e acceptance worCs,op@ an) t,e ,ea+t, professiona+s foc*s
gro*ps wi++ assess t,e ease wit, w,ic, pre)efine) an) new scenarios can 2e inp*t to t,e -o)e+.
T,e o*tp*t to 2e )e+i1ere) 2: t,e -o)e+ wi++ 2e specifie) initia++: 2: t,e for-a+ s*2ject -atter e6pertsA w,o
wi++ i)entif: t,e infor-ation re/*ire) to assist wit, )ecision -aCing. As for t,e pre)eter-ine)
co--*nication p+ansA t,e -o)e++ers are responsi2+e for confir-ing t,at t,ese o*tp*ts are inc+*)e) in t,e
-o)e+ interface an) f*rt,er assesse) 2: t,e s*2ject -atter e6perts an) ,ea+t, professiona+ foc*s gro*ps.
TELL ME project partners wi++ consi)er t,ese o*tp*ts in t,eir re1iews of )raft -o)e+s )*ring t,e
)e1e+op-ent process.
Accessi2i+it:A or t,e wa: in w,ic, t,e -o)e+ is presente) an) *se)A wi++ 2e assesse) as part of t,e -o)e+
testing. =or-a+ testing is to 2e con)*cte) 2: t,e s*2ject -atter e6pertsE worCs,op 2efore passing t,e
-o)e+ for f*rt,er testing 2: t,e ,ea+t, professiona+s gro*p. #n a))itionA TELL ME project partners wi++ ,a1e
t,e opport*nit: for on4going co--ent a2o*t t,e ease of *se an) co-pre,ensi2i+it: of t,e o*tp*ts as )raft
-o)e+s are -a)e a1ai+a2+e.
T,ere are a+so se1era+ feat*res of t,e -o)e+ t,at are )esira2+e 2*t not necessar: to pro1i)e t,e
f*nctiona+it:. T,e -o)e++ers wi++ 2e responsi2+e for -eeting t,ese to t,e e6tent possi2+e an) reporting
w,et,er t,e criteria ,a1e 2een satisfie). T,ese are:
T,e -o)e+ is to *se G#S )ata to pro1i)e for -o)e+ rea+is-A pro-ote acceptance an) assist wit,
interpretationD
T,e -o)e+ is to 2e p+atfor- in)epen)ent so t,at it can 2e *se) 2: a++ )ecision -aCers regar)+ess of
t,eir infor-ation tec,no+og: infrastr*ct*reD
T,e software to r*n t,e -o)e+ is to 2e as c,eap as possi2+e ?an) prefera2+: free@D an)
T,e software to r*n t,e -o)e+ s,o*+) not re/*ire an: e6tra software t,at -a: not 2e a1ai+a2+e to a++
*sers.
=.6 1ace or conce)tual 'alidit.
!oncept*a+ 1a+i)ation is foc*sse) on w,et,er t,e -o)e+ is reasona2+e fro- a t,eoretica+ perspecti1e. T,at
isA )oes t,e -o)e+ )esign appropriate+: inc+*)e re+e1ant feat*res of t,e rea+ wor+) target s:ste- an) t,e
re+ations,ips 2etween t,e-0 T,e participator: process is inten)e) to o2tain )irect co--ent an) fee)2acC
a2o*t t,e )esign fro- e6perts fro- a 2roa) range of )iscip+ines. =ace 1a+i)it: t,en re+ies on t,e
effecti1eness of t,is participation process ?MossA 2337@. T,is wi++ 2e assesse) in se1era+ wa:s:
En)orse-ent of eac, -ajor )raft of t,e )esign 2: t,e s*2ject -atter e6perts an) TELL ME project
partnersD
Ana+:sis of t,e co--ents recei1e) in response to eac, -ajor )raftD an)
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S*r1e: an)Oor inter1iew wit, so-e participants foc*ssing on t,e effecti1eness of t,e participation
an) t,e /*a+it: of t,e fina+ )esign.
#n a))itionA t,e e6perts wi++ r*n se1era+ si-p+e scenarios wit, t,e -o)e+ to assess t,e reasona2+eness of
t,e -o)e+Es +ogic 2: e6a-ining t,e ani-ation of epi)e-ic sprea) an) t,e res*+ts ?MossA 2337D H+^g+A 2338@.
=.8 Verification
8nce t,e -o)e+ )esign ,as 2een agree)A t,ere is a tec,nica+ iss*e of ,ow to i-p+e-ent t,at )esignA or
trans+ate it into -o)e+ co)e. $erification is t,e process of c,ecCing for acc*rac: an) f*nctiona+it: of t,e
trans+ation an) is t,e responsi2i+it: of t,e -o)e++er.
T,e first set of 1erification criteria concern pre1enting an) e+i-inating co)e errors or 2*gs. T,e fo++owing
practices wi++ 2e o2ser1e) ?Gi+2ertA 2338@:
E+egant -o)*+ar co)eD
!o--ents t,ro*g,o*t t,at )escri2e t,e p*rpose of sections of co)e an) t,e -eaning of 1aria2+es
an) e/*ationsD
%eporting of inter-e)iate 1a+*es in ca+c*+ations an) re+ations,ips )*ring co)e )e1e+op-ent to
ens*re t,e inten)e) re+ations,ip is i-p+e-ente) an) )iagnose errors w,ere t,e: ariseD
#terati1e co)e )e1e+op-entA w,ere co-ponents of t,e -o)e+ are teste) 2efore a))ing new
co-ponents.
#n a))itionA test cases wi++ 2e *se) to 1erif: +arger sections of co)e. $erification wi++ inc+*)e ?Gi+2ertA 2338D
SargentA 23(3@:
Assertions or test -essages in t,e co)eA to ens*re on+: feasi2+e para-eter 1a+*es can 2e r*n wit,
t,e -o)e+D
!orner an) e6tre-e con)ition testsA w,ere para-eter 1a+*es are set to 3 or e6tre-e 1a+*es to
ens*re t,e -o)e+ is a2+e to )ea+ wit, t,ese para-eter 1a+*es an) report reasona2+e res*+tsD
Degenerac: testsA w,ere on+: a sing+e 1a+*e is c,ange) an) t,e o*tp*t is c,ecCe) for consistenc:
wit, t,at c,angeD
82ser1ation or tracing of t,e si-*+ationA -onitoring t,e properties of specific agents eac,
si-*+ation step to ens*re t,e: c,ange in t,e wa: e6pecte).
=.= Em)irical or o)erational 'alidit.
T,e test for e-pirica+ 1a+i)it: is w,et,er t,e -o)e+ res*+ts -atc, a1ai+a2+e )ata. A Ce: )iffic*+t: is t,at
a1ai+a2+e )ata is *se) to ca+i2rate t,e -o)e+D t,at isA t,e para-eters )escri2ing re+ations,ips wit,in t,e
-o)e+ are )eri1e) fro- t,e )ata. T,*sA care -*st 2e taCen to test in a wa: t,at )oes not si-p+: report
2acC t,e )ata *se). =*rt,er-oreA -o)e+s t:pica++: s*ffer fro- *n)er4)eter-inationA w,ere t,ere are -an:
)ifferent -o)e+s t,at are consistent wit, t,e )ataA wit, t,e conse/*ence t,at goo) ca+i2ration is no
g*arantee of acc*rac: ?MossA 2337@.
=or t,e TELL ME projectA t,ese pro2+e-s are partic*+ar+: se1ere as t,ere are few epi)e-ics to pro1i)e )ata
an) e1en fewer w,ere t,e co--*nication is reporte) in s*fficient )etai+ to s*pport e-pirica+ testing ?see
section '@. T,*sA 1a+i)ation wi++ re+: on /*a+itati1e -atc,ing of -acro 2e,a1io*r *sing -icro )ata
ca+i2ration. T,at isA para-eters for specific re+ations,ips wit,in t,e -o)e+ wi++ 2e )eri1e) fro- )ata an) t,e
/*a+itati1e 2e,a1io*r of t,e -o)e+ as a w,o+e wi++ 2e co-pare) to past epi)e-ics. T,e capacit: to
repro)*ce 2e,a1io*r wi++ 2e assesse) 2: t,e s*2ject -atter e6perts at t,e secon) worCs,op an) in t,e
,ea+t, professiona+ foc*s gro*psA an) -a)e a1ai+a2+e to project partners for co--ent.
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Sensiti1it: ana+:sis wi++ a+so 2e perfor-e) to assess t,e ro2*stness of res*+ts an) pro1i)e in)ications of
*ncertaint: ?SargentA 23(3@. T,is ana+:sis s:ste-atica++: 1aries para-eter 1a+*es t,ro*g, p+a*si2+e ranges
an) ana+:ses t,e c,ange in -o)e+ o*tp*t. T,e ana+:sis wi++ 2e perfor-e) 2: t,e -o)e++ers an) reporte) to
t,e s*2ject -atter e6perts for assess-ent.
=.> Validation summar., Allocation of res)onsibilit.
T,e 1ario*s 1a+i)ation tests are s*--arise) in Ta2+e 7A toget,er wit, t,e gro*p responsi2+e for assessing
w,et,er t,e: ,a1e 2een satisfie). A G&esE in t,e ta2+e in)icates t,at t,e gro*p is re/*ire) to *n)ertaCe t,e
specific 1a+i)ation as part of t,e -o)e+ )e1e+op-ent process. An G8ptiona+E in)icates t,at t,e re+e1ant
infor-ation wi++ 2e -a)e a1ai+a2+e to t,e gro*p an) co--ents so*g,t.
Table =, Ma))in( of 'alidation criteria $ith assessor (rou)
Criterion Modellers E/)erts -artners -rofessionals
"ti+it:: co--*nication p+ans &es &es &es &es
"ti+it:: o*tp*t content &es &es 8ptiona+ &es
"ti+it:: o*tp*t co-pre,ensi2i+it: &es 8ptiona+ &es
"ti+it:: con1enience feat*res &es
!oncept*a+: participation process &es 8ptiona+
!oncept*a+: res*+t reasona2+eness &es 8ptiona+
$erification: 2*g e+i-ination &es
$erification: si-p+e test cases &es
E-pirica+: /*a+itati1e 2e,a1io*r &es 8ptiona+ &es
8perationa+: sensiti1it: ana+:sis &es &es 8ptiona+
> :e'elo)ment and A))lication
As t,is report is part of t,e on4going )e1e+op-ent of t,e TELL ME si-*+ation -o)e+A t,is section pro1i)es
an o*t+ine of c*rrent p+ans for t,e )e1e+op-ent process an) e1ent*a+ *se of t,e -o)e+. #t is a state-ent of
intentA an) wi++ 2e re1ise) as re/*ire) an) e6pan)e) in f*t*re reports.
>.1 :e'elo)ment )lan
T,e 2roa) -o)e+ +ogic ?=ig*re 2@ was )e1e+ope) t,ro*g, se1era+ )rafts initia++: 2ase) on t,e o*tp*ts of
.;( an) .;2A t,en )isc*sse) wit, projects partners an) s*2ject -atter e6perts. T,e )etai+e) re+ations,ips
inc+*)e) in t,e )esign were )e1e+ope) t,ro*g, a co-2ination of )isc*ssions a2o*t t,e -o)e+ +ogic an)
p*2+is,e) +iterat*re.
T,e co--*nication +ang*age ?section 3.(@ was initia++: )e1e+ope) 2ase) on )isc*ssions at a session of t,e
TELL ME 8cto2er 23(3 .;3O.;4 co--*nication worCs,opA an) refine) in accor)ance wit, co--ents on
t,e )raft +ang*age fro- TELL ME partners in >o1e-2er 23(3.
A )e-onstration -o)e+ ,as a+rea): 2een re+ease). T,e ne6t protot:pe wi++ inc+*)e -ore rea+istic ?2*t
*nca+i2rate)@ e/*ations for t,e attit*)e an) 2e,a1io*r +ogic. Later )e1e+op-ent tasCs inc+*)e:
constr*cting inp*t interface for co--*nication p+ansD
s*pporting -*+tip+e protecti1e 2e,a1io*rsA inc+*)ing 1arie) a)option an) efficac:D
ca+i2rating attit*)e an) 2e,a1io*r e+e-entsD
conse/*ences of )ifferent -e)ia accessD
a))ing )etai+ to epi)e-ic trans-ission ?inc+*)ing -igrationA +atenc:@D an)
)esigning *sef*+ o*tp*t c,arts an) res*+ts reporting.
D4.2 Software Design
TELL ME project – GA: 278723

3'
$erification an) concept*a+ 1a+i)ation wi++ 2e *n)ertaCen in para++e+ wit, -o)e+ constr*ction. T,e fina+
protot:pe is p+anne) to 2e co-p+ete) 2: 3( A*g*st 23(4 to per-it s*fficient ti-e for *ti+it: assess-ent
an) e-pirica+ 1a+i)ation prior to re+ease of t,e protot:pe to ,ea+t, professiona+ foc*s gro*p testing ?tasCs
T4.4 an) T4.'@ fro- 8cto2er 23(4.
>.! -romul(ation and anal.sis )lan
T,e fina+ 1ersion of t,e -o)e+ is to 2e re+ease) at t,e co-p+etion of t,e TELL ME project at 3( Fan*ar:
23('. T,is software wi++ 2e acco-panie) 2: )oc*-entation t,at is e6pecte) to inc+*)e:
"ser g*i)e: a g*i)e to *sing t,e -o)e+D
Tec,nica+ reference: -o)e+ )esign as i-p+e-ente)A )ata so*rcesA 1a+i)ation res*+ts an) ot,er
-ateria+ t,at )escri2es t,e wa: in w,ic, t,e -o)e+ worCs an) a++ows in)epen)ent e1a+*ationD an)
Scenario ana+:sis: )isc*ssion of t,e -o)e+ res*+ts fro- se+ecte) co--*nication scenariosA inc+*)ing
t,e *ncertaint: associate) wit, t,e res*+ts.
T,e *ser g*i)e wi++ inc+*)e infor-ation a2o*t ,ow to enter co--*nication p+ans an) sit*ationa+ scenarios
into t,e -o)e+A an) ,ow to interpret res*+ts. #t wi++ e-p,asise t,at t,e -o)e+ is inten)e) to pro-ote
*n)erstan)ing of t,e co-p+e6 s:ste- wit,in w,ic, epi)e-ic co--*nication is +ocate) an) so-e of t,e
2roa)er interactionsA rat,er t,an forecasting partic*+ar o*tco-es. T,is wi++ 2e reinforce) wit, e6a-p+es
s*c, as t,ose *se) for t,e 1a+i)ation process. T,ese e6a-p+es wi++ 2e reporte) as -*+tip+e si-*+ations o1er
t,e sa-e inp*tsA to pro1i)e g*i)ance on t,e 1aria2i+it: of -o)e+ o*tp*t.
T,e -o)e+ is to 2e accessi2+e fro- t,e we2site to )own+oa) an) possi2+: a+so to r*n fro- t,e we2site. #n
a))itionA t,e -o)e+ an) )oc*-entation wi++ 2e pro1i)e) to t,ose organisations t,at ,a1e 2een in1o+1e) in
)esign )isc*ssions.
T,ere are se1era+ tasCs wit,in .;' ?Disse-ination an) ;o+ic: Dia+og*e@ to w,ic, t,e si-*+ation -o)e+ is
e6p+icit+: e6pecte) to contri2*te so-e content:
.it, regar) to t,e press centre an) news+etters ?ST'.(.2@A t,e fina+ -o)e+ wi++ 2e a1ai+a2+e fro- t,e
we2site an) artic+es a2o*t -ajor steps wi++ 2e pro1i)e) to t,e .;' +ea)er for inc+*sion on t,e
we2site or in news+etters as appropriate.
=ina+ p*2+is,a2+e s*--ar: report ?ST'.(.'@ wi++ inc+*)e appropriate -ateria+ fro- t,e -o)e+
)oc*-entation.
T,e fina+ staCe,o+)er conference ?ST'.2.2@ wi++ inc+*)e at +east one session presenting t,e -o)e+.
Mo)e+ )e1e+op-ent is e6pecte) to pro1i)e t,e 2asis for at +east two jo*rna+ artic+esA w,ic,
s*pp+e-ent t,ose origina++: p+anne) in ST'.(.4.
T,e -o)e+ wi++ 2e presente) at re+e1ant p*2+ic ,ea+t, an) si-*+ation conferences ?s*c, as t,e
E*ropean Socia+ Si-*+ation Association ann*a+ conference@.
T,e report on e6pecte) socio4econo-ic inf+*ence an) factors inf+*encing *se ?ST'.3.(@ wi++ inc+*)e
an ana+:sis of t,e si-*+ation -o)e+.
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37
C0;CUSI0;S A;: REC0MME;:ATI0;S
T,e o2jecti1e of t,e TELL ME si-*+ation -o)e+ is to pro1i)e g*i)ance for ,ea+t, a*t,orities a2o*t t,e
effecti1eness of )ifferent co--*nication p+ans 2eforeA )*ring an) after an inf+*enBa epi)e-ic. As t,e
o2jecti1e of s*c, co--*nication is to +i-it t,e i-pact of t,e epi)e-icA t,e -o)e+ -*st connect propose)
p+ans to epi)e-ic progress.
T,is )esign )oc*-ent )escri2es a two +a:er -o)e+. 8ne +a:er consists of si-*+ate) in)i1i)*a+s t,at recei1e
co--*nication -essagesA a)j*st t,eir attit*)es accor)ing+:A percei1e t,eir sit*ation an) -aCe )ecisions
a2o*t w,et,er to a)opt ?or cease@ protecti1e 2e,a1io*r. T,is 2e,a1io*r is fo*n)e) on a ,:2ri)
ps:c,o+ogica+ -o)e+ t,at inc+*)es attit*)esA s*2jecti1e nor-s an) percei1e) t,reat. T,e ot,er +a:er is a
spatia+ epi)e-ic si-*+ation. T,e +a:ers interact wit, eac, ot,erD epi)e-ic progress is t,e -ajor e+e-ent of
an in)i1i)*a+Es percei1e) t,reatA w,ic, affects t,eir 2e,a1io*r c,oicesA an) t,e a)option of protecti1e
2e,a1io*r affects t,e force of infection ?t,ro*g, trans-issi2i+it:@ of t,e epi)e-ic.
T,e connection an) -*t*a+ inf+*ence of t,e co--*nicationA persona+ protecti1e 2e,a1io*r an) epi)e-ic
progress is a s*2stantia+ t,eoretica+ a)1ance o1er e6isting -o)e+s. T,e Ce: 2enefit of t,e TELL ME
si-*+ation is to assist ,ea+t, a*t,orities to *n)erstan) t,eir co-p+e6 )ecision -aCing en1iron-ent an)
sti-*+ate a 2roa) perspecti1e.
<owe1erA )ata are not a1ai+a2+e to acc*rate+: para-eterise t,e -o)e+. T,at isA t,e -o)e+ wi++ not 2e
s*fficient+: precise an) acc*rate to )irect+: co-pare potentia+ co--*nication p+ans. >e1ert,e+essA it can
a+so g*i)e f*t*re )ata co++ection effortsA t,e str*ct*re is 2ase) on re+e1ant ps:c,o+ogica+ t,eories an) t,e
-o)e+ para-eters can 2e a)j*ste) as -ore )ata 2eco-es a1ai+a2+e.
At t,e ti-e of writing ?=e2r*ar: 23(4@A -o)e+ )e1e+op-ent is on tracC. Mo)e+ constr*ction ,as
co--ence)A wit, a target co-p+etion )ate of 3( A*g*st 23(4.
D4.2 Software Design
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37
+I+I0?RA-7Y
A2)o*A M.A <a-i++A L.A Gi+2ertA >.A 23(2. Designing an) 5*i+)ing an Agent45ase) Mo)e+A in: <eppensta++A A.F.A
!rooCsA A.T.A SeeA L.M.A 5att:A M. ?E)s.@A Agent45ase) Mo)e+s of Geograp,ica+ S:ste-s. SpringerA
Dor)rec,tA pp. (4(–(7'.
Aje++iA M.A Gon`a+1esA 5.A 5a+canA D.A !o+iBBaA $.A <*A <.A %a-ascoA F.F.A Mer+erA S.A $espignaniA A.A 23(3.
!o-paring +arge4sca+e co-p*tationa+ approac,es to epi)e-ic -o)e+ing: Agent42ase) 1ers*s
str*ct*re) -etapop*+ation -o)e+s. 5M! #nfectio*s Diseases (3A (93.
AjBenA #.A (99(. T,e t,eor: of p+anne) 2e,a1ior. 8rganiBationa+ 5e,a1ior an) <*-an Decision ;rocesses '3A
(79–2((.
An)ersonA >.<.A (97(. #ntegration t,eor: an) attit*)e c,ange. ;s:c,o+ogica+ %e1iew 78A (7(.
Ar-itageA !.F.A !onnerA M.A 233(. Efficac: of t,e t,eor: of p+anne) 2e,a1io*r: A -eta4ana+:tic re1iew.
5ritis, Fo*rna+ of Socia+ ;s:c,o+og: 43A 47(–499.
5ai+e:A >.T.A (97'. T,e Mat,e-atica+ T,eor: of #nfectio*s Diseases an) its App+icationsA 2n) e). !,ar+es
Griffin a !o-pan: Lt).
5a*c,A !.T.A L+o:)4S-it,A F.8.A !offeeA M.;.A Ga+1aniA A.;.A 233'. D:na-ica++: Mo)e+ing SA%S an) 8t,er
>ew+: E-erging %espirator: #++nesses: ;astA ;resentA an) =*t*re. Epi)e-io+og: (7A 79(–83(.
5is,A A.A Mic,ieA S.A 23(3. De-ograp,ic an) attit*)ina+ )eter-inants of protecti1e 2e,a1io*rs )*ring a
pan)e-ic: A re1iew. 5ritis, jo*rna+ of ,ea+t, ps:c,o+og: ('A 797–824.
5is,A A.A &ar)+e:A L.A >ico++A A.A Mic,ieA S.A 23((. =actors associate) wit, *ptaCe of 1accination against
pan)e-ic inf+*enBa: A s:ste-atic re1iew. $accine 29A 7472–7484.
5+en)onA %.F.A 5ensonA F.M.A Des%oc,esA !.M.A %a+eig,A E.A Ta:+or4!+arCA H.A 2334. T,e ;*2+icEs %esponse to
Se1ere Ac*te %espirator: S:n)ro-e in Toronto an) t,e "nite) States. !+inica+ #nfectio*s Diseases
38A 92'–93(.
5o,nerA G.A DicCe+A >.A 23((. Attit*)es an) Attit*)e !,ange. Ann*a+ %e1iew of ;s:c,o+og: 72A 39(–4(7.
!arpenterA !.F.A 23(3. A Meta4Ana+:sis of t,e Effecti1eness of <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ $aria2+es in ;re)icting
5e,a1ior. <ea+t, !o--*nication 2'A 77(–779.
!ow+ingA 5.F.A >gA D.M.A #pA D.H.A LiaoA b.A La-A ....A .*A F.T.A La*A F.T.A Griffit,sA S.M.A =ie+)ingA %.A 23(3.
!o--*nit: ps:c,o+ogica+ an) 2e,a1iora+ responses t,ro*g, t,e first wa1e of t,e 2339 inf+*enBa A
?<(>(@ pan)e-ic in <ong Hong. Fo*rna+ of #nfectio*s Diseases 232A 877–877.
DanesA F.E.A <*nterA F.E.A .oe+fe+A F.A (978. Mass co--*nication an) 2e+ief c,ange: A test of t,ree
-at,e-atica+ -o)e+s. <*-an !o--*nication %esearc, 4A 243–2'2.
DieC-annA 8.A <eester2eeCA F.A 2333. Mat,e-atica+ Epi)e-io+og: of #nfectio*s Diseases. .i+e: !,ic,ester.
D*r,a-A D.;.A !as-anA E.A.A 23(2. #ncorporating in)i1i)*a+ ,ea+t,4protecti1e )ecisions into )isease
trans-ission -o)e+s: a -at,e-atica+ fra-eworC. Fo*rna+ of T,e %o:a+ Societ: #nterface 9A '72–
'73.
=erranteA G.A 5a+)isseraA S.A Mog,a)a-A ;.=.A !arroBBiA G.A TrinitoA M.8.A Sa+-asoA S.A 23((. S*r1ei++ance of
perceptionsA Cnow+e)geA attit*)es an) 2e,a1iors of t,e #ta+ian a)*+t pop*+ation ?(8–79 :ears@
)*ring t,e 2339–23(3 AO<(>( inf+*enBa pan)e-ic. E*ropean jo*rna+ of epi)e-io+og: 27A 2((–2(9.
=inCA E.L.A Hap+owitBA S.A.A 5a*erA !.L.A (983. ;ositiona+ )iscrepanc:A ps:c,o+ogica+ )iscrepanc:A an) attit*)e
c,ange: E6peri-enta+ tests of so-e -at,e-atica+ -o)e+s. !o--*nication Monograp,s '3A 4(3–
433.
=is,2einA M.A (99'. De1e+oping effecti1e 2e,a1ior c,ange inter1entions: so-e +essons +earne) fro-
2e,a1iora+ researc,. >#DA %esearc, Monograp, (''A 247–27(.
=*nCA S.A Gi+a)A E.A .atCinsA !.A FansenA $.A.A.A 2339. T,e sprea) of awareness an) its i-pact on epi)e-ic
o*t2reaCs. ;rocee)ings of t,e >ationa+ Aca)e-: of Sciences (37A 7872–7877.
=*nCA S.A Sa+at,cA M.A FansenA $.A.A.A 23(3. Mo)e++ing t,e inf+*ence of ,*-an 2e,a1io*r on t,e sprea) of
infectio*s )iseases: a re1iew. Fo*rna+ of T,e %o:a+ Societ: #nterface 7A (247–(2'7.
Gi+2ertA >.A 2338. Agent45ase) Mo)e+s. SAGE ;*2+icationsA Lon)onA "nite) Hing)o-.
<a++A S.A (983. Enco)ingODeco)ingA in: <a++A S.A <o2sonA D.A LoweA A.A .i++isA ;. ?E)s.@A !*+t*reA Me)iaA
Lang*age: .orCing ;apers in !*+t*ra+ St*)iesA (972479. <*tc,isonA pp. (77–(77.
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38
<arrisonA F.A.A M*++enA ;.D.A GreenA L...A (992. A -eta4ana+:sis of st*)ies of t,e ,ea+t, 2e+ief -o)e+ wit,
a)*+ts. <ea+t, E)*cation %esearc, 7A (37–((7.
<eat,A 5.A <i++A %.A !iara++oA =.A 2339. A s*r1e: of agent42ase) -o)e+ing practices. Fo*rna+ of Artificia+
Societies an) Socia+ Si-*+ation (2A 9.
<o)gesA F.A DewarA F.A (992. #s #t &o* or &o*r Mo)e+ Ta+Cing0 A =ra-eworC for Mo)e+ $a+i)ation. %A>DA
Santa MonicaA !A.
FaCo2sonA %.A (973. Ling*istics an) ;oeticsA in: Se2eoCA T.A. ?E).@A St:+e in Lang*age. M#T ;ressA !a-2ri)geA
MAA pp. 3'3–377.
FanBA >.H.A 5ecCerA M.<.A (984. T,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+: A Deca)e Later. <ea+t, E)*cation a 5e,a1ior ((A
(–47.
Hap+owitBA S.A.A =inCA E.L.A M*+croneA F.A AtCinA D.A Da2i+A S.A (99(. Disentang+ing t,e effects of )iscrepant an)
)isconfir-ing infor-ation. Socia+ ;s:c,o+og: b*arter+: '4A (9(–237.
Hee+ingA M.F.A Ea-esA H.T.A 233'. >etworCs an) epi)e-ic -o)e+s. Fo*rna+ of t,e %o:a+ Societ: #nterface 2A
29'–337.
HissA #.Q.A !asse++A F.A %ecCerA M.A Si-onA ;.L.A 23(3. T,e i-pact of infor-ation trans-ission on epi)e-ic
o*t2reaCs. Mat,e-atica+ 5iosciences 22'A (–(3.
H+^g+A =.A 2338. A 1a+i)ation -et,o)o+og: for agent42ase) si-*+ationsA in: SA! E38 ;rocee)ings of t,e 2338
A!M S:-posi*- on App+ie) !o-p*ting. A!MA >ew &orCA >&A pp. 39–43.
Laroc,eA M.A (977. A -o)e+ of attit*)e c,ange in gro*ps fo++owing a pers*asi1e co--*nication: An
atte-pt at for-a+iBing researc, fin)ings. 5e,a1iora+ Science 22A 247–2'7.
Lasswe++A <.D.A (948. T,e str*ct*re an) f*nction of co--*nication in societ:A in: Sc,ra--A .. ?E).@A
%eprinte) in: Mass !o--*nications: A 5ooC of %ea)ings ?(973@. "r2ana: "ni1ersit: of #++inois ;ressA
pp. ((7–(33.
La*A F.A Ts*iA <.A Hi-A F.A !,anA ;.A Griffit,sA S.A 23(3. Monitoring of perceptionsA anticipate) 2e,a1iora+A an)
ps:c,o+ogica+ responses re+ate) to <'>( inf+*enBa. #nfection 38A 27'–283.
La*A F.A &angA .A Ts*iA <.A Hi-A F.A 2333. Monitoring co--*nit: responses to t,e SA%S epi)e-ic in <ong
Hong: fro- )a: (3 to )a: 72. Fo*rna+ of Epi)e-io+og: an) !o--*nit: <ea+t, '7A 874–873.
Ma))*6A F.E.A %ogersA %...A (983. ;rotection -oti1ation an) se+f4efficac:: A re1ise) t,eor: of fear appea+s
an) attit*)e c,ange. Fo*rna+ of E6peri-enta+ Socia+ ;s:c,o+og: (9A 479–479.
Ma:A %.M.A An)ersonA %.M.A (984. Spatia+ ,eterogeneit: an) t,e )esign of i--*niBation progra-s.
Mat,e-atica+ 5iosciences 72A 83–(((.
Mi+neA S.A S,eeranA ;.A 8r2e++A S.A 2333. ;re)iction an) #nter1ention in <ea+t,4%e+ate) 5e,a1ior: A Meta4
Ana+:tic %e1iew of ;rotection Moti1ation T,eor:. Fo*rna+ of App+ie) Socia+ ;s:c,o+og: 33A (37–(43.
MossA S.A 2337. A+ternati1e approac,es to t,e e-pirica+ 1a+i)ation of agent42ase) -o)e+s. Fo*rna+ of
Artificia+ Societies an) Socia+ Si-*+ation ((A '.
M:ersA L.5.A Goo)winA %.A 23((. Deter-inants of a)*+tsE intention to 1accinate against pan)e-ic swine f+*.
5M! ;*2+ic <ea+t, ((A ('.
>ewco-2A T.M.A (9'3. An approac, to t,e st*): of co--*nicati1e acts. ;s:c,o+ogica+ re1iew 73A 393.
8+i1erA %.L.A 5ergerA ;.H.A (979. A ;at, Ana+:sis of ;re1enti1e <ea+t, !are Decision Mo)e+s. Fo*rna+ of
!ons*-er %esearc, 7A ((3–(22.
;erraA >.A 5a+canA D.A Gon`a+1esA 5.A $espignaniA A.A 23((. Towar)s a !,aracteriBation of 5e,a1ior4Disease
Mo)e+s. ;LoS 8>E 7A e23384.
%i+e:A S.A 2333. Trans-ission D:na-ics of t,e Etio+ogica+ Agent of SA%S in <ong Hong: #-pact of ;*2+ic
<ea+t, #nter1entions. Science 333A (97(–(977.
%ogersA E.M.A Hincai)A D.L.A (98(. !o--*nication networCs: Towar) a new para)ig- for researc,. >ew
&orC =ree ;ress (98(.
%osenstocCA #.M.A (974. T,e <ea+t, 5e+ief Mo)e+ an) ;re1enti1e <ea+t, 5e,a1ior. <ea+t, E)*cation a
5e,a1ior 2A 3'4–387.
%*2inA G.A ;ottsA <.A Mic,ieA S.A 23(3. T,e i-pact of co--*nications a2o*t swine f+* ?inf+*enBa A <(>(1@ on
p*2+ic responses to t,e o*t2reaC: res*+ts fro- 37 nationa+ te+ep,one s*r1e:s in t,e "H. <ea+t,
Tec,no+og: Assess-ent (4A (83–277.
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39
SargentA %.G.A 23(3. $erification an) 1a+i)ation of si-*+ation -o)e+sA in: Fo,anssonA 5.A FainA S.A Monto:a4
TorresA F.A <*ganA F.A &^cesanA E. ?E)s.@A ;rocee)ings of t,e 23(3 .inter Si-*+ation !onference. pp.
(77–(83.
S,annonA !.A .ea1erA ..A (949. Mat,e-atica+ T,eor: of !o--*nication. "ni1ersit: of #++inois ;ress.
S,erifA !.A S,erifA M.A >e2erga++A %.A (97'. Attit*)e an) Attit*)e !,ange: T,e Socia+ F*)g-ent4#n1o+1e-ent
Approac,. ..5. Sa*n)ers ;*2+is,ing !o-pan:A ;,i+a)e+p,ia.
TELL MEA 23(2. D(.( S:ste-atic %e1iew %eport. TELL ME ;roject.
.eer)A .. 1an )erA Ti--er-ansA D.%.A 5ea*jeanA D.F.A 8*),offA F.A Steen2ergenA F.E. 1anA 23((. Monitoring
t,e +e1e+ of go1ern-ent tr*stA risC perception an) intention of t,e genera+ p*2+ic to a)opt
protecti1e -eas*res )*ring t,e inf+*enBa A ?<(>(@ pan)e-ic in t,e >et,er+an)s. 5M! ;*2+ic
<ea+t, ((A '7'.
.i+ensC:A ".A (999. >etLogo.
.itteA H.A (992. ;*tting t,e fear 2acC into fear appea+s: T,e e6ten)e) para++e+ process -o)e+.
!o--*nications Monograp,s '9A 329–349.
QijtregtopA E.A .i+sc,*tA F.A Hoe+-aA >.A $an De+)enA F.A Sto+CA %.A $an Steen2ergenA F.A 5roerA F.A .o+tersA 5.A
;ost-aA M.A <aCA E.A 2339. .,ic, factors are i-portant in a)*+tsE *ptaCe of a ?pre@ pan)e-ic
inf+*enBa 1accine0 $accine 28A 237–227.