This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
328 Shadeswood Drive
Hoover, AL 35226
Alabama Congressional District 6
Alabama Forestry Association
Four hundred one (401) voters in Alabama Congressional District 6 were interviewed in a random
sample taken May 6-9, 2014. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors.
All interviews were conducted by telephone. The margin of error for this survey is +4.9%, with a
95% confidence level.
Test Ballot Analysis
The Republican Primary for Alabama’s Congressional District 6 is wide open, with five of the seven
candidates in position potentially to qualify for a run-off.
* Former State Representative Paul DeMarco currently leads the race with 24% of the vote.
DeMarco benefits from the highest positive name identification (62% overall, 51% positive) and
solid support from the “over the mountain” communities of Vestavia Hills and Hoover.
* Scott Beason is currently in second place with 17% of the vote. Beason benefits fromsolid
support in Gardendale and in Blount County, but lacks strong support in the “over the mountain”
areas. He has the second highest name identification (51% overall), but his negative ratings (24%)
are the highest of the seven candidates.
* Chad Mathis is in third place with 14%. His overall name identification is at 35%, with
most of that being positive ratings (28%). Still, at 35%, his overall name identification is relatively
* Will Brooke (8%) and Gary Palmer (7%) are essentially tied for fourth place. Both suffer
from low name identification (Brooke, 28%; Palmer, 33%).
* Robert Shattuck and Tom Vignuelle are the only two candidates who are essentially “out
of the running” at this point in the campaign. Each has low vote support (2% for Vignuelle, 0% for
Shattuck), low name identification (Vignuelle, 15%; Shattuck, 11%), and relatively high negative
ratings (Vignuelle, 6%; Shattuck, 7%).
A second choice ballot was used to assess potential run-off scenarios. Using this approach:
* In a DeMarco vs. Beason runoff, DeMarco would have an 11-point lead, 32% to
* In a DeMarco vs. Mathis runoff, DeMarco would have an 18-point lead, 35% to
* In a DeMarco vs. Brooke runoff, DeMarco would have a 23-point lead, 32% to
* In a DeMarco vs. Palmer runoff, DeMarco would have a 25-point lead, 36% to
* In a Beason vs. Mathis runoff, Beason would have a 6-point lead, 24% to 18%.
* In a Beason vs. Brooke runoff, Beason would have a 9-point lead, 25% to 16%.
* In a Beason vs. Palmer runoff, Beason would have a 13-point lead, 24% to 11%.
* In a Mathis vs. Brooke runoff, Mathis would have a 1-point lead, 17% to 16%.
* In a Mathis vs. Palmer runoff, Mathis would have a 6-point lead, 17% to 11%.
ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL QUESTIONS
Favorability ratings were measured for Governor Robert Bentley, State Senator Scott Beason,
Businessman Will Brooke, State Representative Paul DeMarco, Gary Palmer, Chad Mathis, Robert
Shattuck, and Tom Vignuelle. Possible responses included very favorable, favorable, unfavorable,
very unfavorable, recognize the name but can't rate, and don't recognize the name.
VF F UF VUF CR DR
Governor Robert Bentley 26% 54% 7% 3% 9% 1%
State Senator Scott Beason 9% 28% 13% 11% 27% 12%
Businessman Will Brooke 6% 14% 6% 2% 33% 38%
State Rep. Paul DeMarco 15% 36% 8% 3% 23% 15%
Chad Mathis 9% 19% 5% 2% 27% 38%
Gary Palmer 6% 19% 6% 2% 30% 39%
Robert Shattuck -- 4% 4% 3% 25% 65%
Tom Vignuelle 3% 6% 5% 1% 24% 62%
By combining the "very favorable" and "favorable" responses into a single positive category, and
combining the "very unfavorable" and "unfavorable" into a single negative, a positive-to-
negative ratio can be computed for the ratings of each individual tested in this survey. Using this
approach, several points become apparent.
* Governor Robert Bentley receives a rating of 80% positive and 10% negative. This reflexes an
8-to-1 positive ratio.
* State Senator Scott Beason receives a rating of 37% positive and 24% negative. This falls
below a 2-to-1 positive ratio that is usually considered the minimum for a candidate. His
ratings are somewhat higher among 50-64 year old voters (44:25), in Blount County (54:23), and in
Gardendale (58:25). He receives negative ratings in Mountain Brook (14:38).
* Businessman Will Brooke receives a rating of 20% positive and 8% negative. This exceeds a
2-to-1 positive ratio. His ratings are higher in Mountain Brook (52:0), but he receives
negative ratings in Blount County (4:12).
* State Representative Paul DeMarco receives a rating of 51 % positive and 11 % negative. This is
the highest rating of any of the congressional candidates, and it approaches a 5-to-1 positive
ratio. His ratings are higher in Mountain Brook (67: 10) and Hoover (78:7). His ratings are lower in
Blount County (39:12).
* Chad Mathis receives a rating of 28% positive and 8% negative. This reflexes a 4-to-1
positive ratio, but he is not recognized by 38% of the voters.
* Gary Palmer receives a rating of 25% positive and 7% negative. This approaches a 4-to-1
positive ratio, but he is not recognized by 39% of the voters.
* Robert Shattuck receives a rating of 4% positive and 7% negative, but he is not recognized
by 65% of the voters. His ratings approach a 2-to-1 negative ratio.
* Tom Vignuelle receives a rating of 9% positive and 6% negative, but he is not recognized
by 62% of the voters. His ratings drop below a 2-to-1 positive ratio.
If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for . . .
Scott Beason 17%
Will Brooke 8%
Paul DeMarco 24%
Chad Mathis 14%
Gary Palmer 7%
Robert Shattuck ---
Tom Vignuelle 2%
Overall, the campaign for Congress in Alabama District 6 is a wide open campaign with several
candidates in contention.
* Paul DeMarco currently leads the race with 24% of the vote. His support is
higher in Vestavia Hills (35%) and Hoover (52%).
* Scott Beason is in second place with 17%. His support is higher in Gardendale
(33%) and Blount County (27%), but he gets only 5% in Mountain Brook and 7% in
And which of these candidates would be your second choice?
Scott Beason 11%
Will Brooke 15%
Paul DeMarco 20%
Chad Mathis 6%
Gary Palmer 8%
Robert Shattuck 1%
Tom Vignuelle 5%
Note: DeMarco (20%), Brooke (15%) and Beason (11%) lead the second choice ballot.
About the organization that commissioned this poll:
The Alabama Forestry Association is a membership organization representing all aspects of
Alabama’s second largest manufacturing industry. AFA is a conservative organization that
actively engages in the political process to support conservative, pro-business candidates
committed to a smaller, more efficient, fiscally responsible, and less intrusive government.