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17 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts)

is;n%x Comparlng structural decomposition analysis

Hoekstra, R. et al. Energy Economics, 2003, 25, (I ), 39-64.
To analyse and understand historical changes in economic, environ-
mental, employment or other socio-economic indicators, it is useful to
assess the driving forces or determinants that underlie these changes.
Two techniques for decomposing indicator changes at the sector level
are structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and index decomposition
analysis (IDA). For example, SDA and IDA have been used to analyse
changes in indicators such as energy use, CO*-emissions, labour
demand and value added. The changes in these variables are
decomposed into determinants such as technological, demand, and
structural effects. SDA uses information from input-output tables
while IDA uses aggregate data at the sector-level. The two methods
have developed quite independently, which has resulted in each
method being characterized by specific, unique techniques and
approaches. This paper has three aims. First, the similarities and
differences between the two aooroaches are summarized. Second. the
possibility of transferring specific techniques and indices is explored.
Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate differences between
the two approaches.
dollars per ton of carbon enhance substantially the consumption of
natural gas in electricity generation sectors, as a substitute fuel for coal.
Such carbon taxes will make COz sequestration economically viable
while increasing the cumulative amount of COz sequestration up to 15
gigatons (Gt) of CO*.
0301529 Automotive power source in 2lst century
Morita, K. JSAE Review, 2003, 24, (I), 3-7.
This paper describes the state and future trends of the conventional
vehicles as well as advanced vehicles. In the twenty-first century, owing
to social demands for low emissions, low energy consumption and oil-
alternative resources, it seems that the keen competition for the
advanced vehicles such as alternative fuel vehicles, hybrid electric
vehicles, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) has been
intensified. Above all, hybrid technologies will perform an important
role because they can be combined with not only internal combustion
engines but also FCVs.
02/01529 Dehavioural responses to energy-related taxes:
a survey
Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A. et al. I nternational J ournal qf Global Energy
I ssues, 2002, 18, (2/3/4), 202-217.
This article examines behavioural responses to changes in energy prices
by surveying the magnitude of energy price elasticities. Price elasticity
estimates can be used to understand behavioural responses to changes
in nrices due to environmental taxes. A theoretical framework is
preiented followed by an overview of the range of price elasticity
estimates for energy found in the literature. The empirical estimates
are classified on t& basis of a selection of characteristics. It is argued
that presenting a range of price elasticities provides more information
than a unique estimate. The findings suggest that environmental taxes
can create a significant reduction in energy use.
02/01540 Chinas rural electrification and poverty reduction
Yang, M. Energy Policy, 2003, 31, (3), 283-295.
This paper aims at quantifying the impact of rural investment in power
sector on the rural economic development and poverty reduction in
China. An econometric model was developed and six Chinese provinces
with different economic background are studied. These provinces
comprise Jiangsu and Liaoning with well-developed rural economy,
Hebei and Henan with medium-develooed rural economv. and Shannxi
and Xinjiang with the least-developed rural economy. Gver 20 years
historical data for the six provincial rural areas has been collected in
rural economic development, households, population, per capita
income. communih infrastructure develonment, cauital investment,
electricity consumption, output values hi agriculture sector, and
township and village enterprises. SPSS V10.0 software program was
used in the research. This paper concludes that priority of capital
investment in rural power sector should be given to Jiangsu-and
Liaoning if the objective of the investment is to develop rural economy,
and that the priority should be given to Hebei and Henan if the
objective is to reduce poverty in rural area.
02/01541 Comparing reoommendationr from the World
Commission on Dams and the IEA initlatlve on hydropower
Gagnon, L. et al. Energy Policy, 2002, 30, (14) 1299-1304.
During the 1996-2000 period, two parallel international initiatives had
the aim of improving the planning, design, and operations of large
dams. One was under the auspices of the International Energy Agency
and the other was the World Commission on Dams. Both produced
recommendations for future development. Many of these recommen-
dations were similar, pointing out the need to assess options properly,
to obtain public acceptance of projects, to share their benefits and to
make sure that affected populations are fairly treated and adequately
comeensated. However. when the detailed nuidelines are comuared.
therk is wide divergence between the two-reports. This is due to
fundamentally different conceptions of development. The WCD
proposes a set of guidelines that could delay projects indefinitely and
assumes that develooment is oossible with almost comolete consensus:
by contrast, the IEAconsiders that governments have a key role to play
in setting up an effective and efficient decision making process which
avoids endless negotiations. Furthermore, the IEA report considers
that final decision on large hydro projects should be made by a national
or state government, whereas the WCD report would give a strong role
to international organizations. Moreover, the WCD assumes that other
renewable energy options, such as wind power, could realistically
replace the energy services provided by dams without considering the
relative magnitudes involved, or the intermittent nature of windpower
compared with the sustained nature of hydropower. The IEA Hydro-
power Agreement report considers that coal generation is the main
competitor of hydropower, and any limits placed on hydropower
development would result in severe negative environmental impacts
due to the increased use of coal.
05/01543 COa taxation on electricity generation for trees
replanting in Malaysia
Mahlia, T. M. I. Energy Conversion und Mmagemmt. 2003, 44, (5),
Because environmental consciousness all over the world, many
countries have been forced to abate the emissions, especially CO*.
One of the policies is to introduce COz taxation on electricity
generation companies for replanting trees. The electricity generation
in Malavsia has used the fuels: 70% eas. 15% coal. 10% hvdro and 5%
petroleum in the year 2000 and projects a change to 4tj% gas, 30%
hydro, 29% coal and only 1% petroleum in the year 2020. This study
attempts to predict the- potential taxation on- COz production by
electricity generation for replanting threes in Malaysia. The calculation
is based on a COz tax of 57 MR$/tCOz (1 US$=3.8 MR$), the cost of
replanting of 3.04 MR$/tree and the trees survival factor of 60%. The
study found that a large number of trees can be replanted by
introducing this strategy, which will reduce COz emission in this
OS/O1544 Dematerialization in Finnish energy use, 1972-
Sun, J. W. Energy Economics, 2003, 25, (I), 23-32.
This paper analyses dematerialization, particularity decarbonization
and energy saving with regard to Finnish energy use. The results show
that Finland has achieved good results in decarbonization and energy
saving. However, the results are not as impressive when compared to
other developed countries.
03/01545 Diminishing marglnal utility: the respectable case
for discounting?
Price, C. ht. J. Sustainable Development, 2003. 6, (l), 117-132.
Diminishing marginal utility is a potentially reasonable basis for
discounting increasing future consumption per head. However, it
applies to a different extent to those whose income growth prospects
differ, to different growth scenarios, and to products whose output is
differently constrained by natural resource and technological limi-
tations. Diminishing marginal utility is irrelevant to non-marginal
consumption and to the totality of consumption. It may even,
perversely, lead to some non-marginal values increasing through time.
As for that means of increasing consumption - reinvestment of
revenues - it is constrained by circumstances and in practice does
not happen to the extent required to justify customary discount rates.
The simplifying assumption of a uniform discount rate depends on
possibilities for trading that actually do not exist.
03101546 Does energy integrate?
Hira, A. and Amaya, L. Energy Policy, 2003, 31, (2), 1X5-199.
Amidst the international movement to privatize and deregulate
electricity and gas sectors of economies, the question of the integration
of those sectors has been somewhat underestimated. In fact, the
integration of energy markets across boundaries is occurring. This
process was examined in three regions: Europe, Central America, and
South America. The forces driving integration in each area were
analysed and the prospects for progress estimated. This study takes a
close look at Nordpool, which is now the most integrated market in the
world, to see if it can serve as a model for other regions. Finally this
paper suggests a set of conditions that the authors feels are necessary
for a successful international integration of energy markets.
05/01547 D namic translog and linear logit models: a factor
demand ana ysis of interfuel substitution in US industrial r
energy demand
Urga, G. and Walters, C. Energ_v Economics. 2003, 25. (I ), l-21
Fuel and Energy Abstracts July 2003 255