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May 19, 2014 (601) 720-2275
Citizens Fund Mississippi Poll: McDaniel Surges into Lead over Cochran
Challenger Moves to 43-36% Lead over 41-Year, Out-of-Touch Incumbent
Atlanta, Ga. – The Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund (TPPCF) on Monday released top lines of
a statewide survey of likely Republican primary voters in Mississippi, showing challenger
Chris McDaniel has surged into a seven point, 43-36% lead over incumbent Sen. Thad
Cochran. This represents a 30-point swing since the last time TPPCF fielded a similar survey,
six weeks ago, which showed Cochran leading McDaniel at the time by 51-28%.
“A 30-point ballot move in six weeks is rare, indeed,” said pollster George Birnbaum of GEB
International, which fielded the survey for TPPCF. “Clearly, as more voters are tuning in to the
race, and learning more about Chris McDaniel, and learning more about how Thad Cochran
has lost touch with Mississippi values, they are moving away from Cochran and to McDaniel.
“The ballot test is a strong indication of McDaniel’s surge,” said pollster George Birnbaum,
“but perhaps more important is the fact that 80% of those with a favorable view of McDaniel
say they plan to vote for him, against just 70% of those with a favorable view of Cochran who
say they plan to vote for him. Historically, incumbents who don’t win the votes of at least 80%
of the voters who view them favorably don’t win.”
Cochran 64/21 48/32
McDaniel 29/10 44/18
Cochran 51 36
McDaniel 28 43
Hard reelect Hard reelect
Cochran 34 27
Hard vote against Hard vote against
Cochran 20 34
In addition to testing respondents’ views of the two candidates, the survey also measured other
traditional tests of strength for an incumbent running for reelection: The “hard vote to reelect”
(which measures the percentage of respondents who say they will vote to reelect the
incumbent, no matter who is running against him), and the “hard vote against” (which
measures the percentage of voters who say they will vote against reelecting the incumbent, no
matter who is running against him).
The May 14 survey showed significant movement on these indices, as well – Cochran’s
fav/unfav moved from 64/21 to 48/32, a 27-point swing against him, while McDaniel’s
fav/unfav moved from 29/10 to 44/18, a 7-point swing toward him.
On the “hard reelect” vs. “hard vote against,” Cochran moved from a 34/20 advantage to a
27/34 disadvantage, representing a 21-point move against him on these crucial tests.
Fielded on Wednesday, May 14, by GEB International to 600 likely GOP primary voters, the
survey has a margin of error of +/-4% at the 95% confidence interval. The April 2 survey was
also conducted by GEB International to 600 likely GOP primary voters, with the same margin
of error and confidence interval.
Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund is committed to equipping grassroots activists at the state and local level
with the tools and resources needed to hold elected officials and government accountable and elect new and
qualified candidates. For more information, visit www.teapartypatriotscitizensfund.com.
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