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Exhibit 4b: Capital Markets Data as of March 15, 1999

Maturity
1 month
3 months
6 months
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years
7 years
10 years
20 years
30 years

US Treasury Yields
%
4.60
4.69
4.75
4.95
5.10
5.06
5.29
5.14
5.51

Brent Crude
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Projected Prices for
Futures Prices Futures Prices
World Oil
12.56
14.49
12.61
14.40
12.65
14.28
12.83
14.31
16.55
13.45
14.60
16.85
13.65
14.95
17.24
15.35
17.48
15.90
17.80
18.15
18.64
20.46

Exhibit 5a: Estimated Project Economics for the Azeri, Chrag and Deepwater Gunashli Fields
Project Economies (per Barrel)
Oil Price (assumed)
10.00
Production Costs
4.00
Transportation Costs
3.00
Gross Profit
3.00
AIOC Cost Recovery
1.50
Pre-tax Profit
1.50
AIOC Share
1.05
Azerbaijani Taxes
0.26
After Tax Profit to AIOC
0.79
Total available to AIOC for cost Recovery and Profit
2.29

15.00
4.00
3.00
8.00
4.00
4.00
2.80
0.70
2.10
6.10

20.00
4.00
3.00
13.00
6.50
6.50
4.55
1.14
3.41
9.91

25.00
4.00
3.00
18.00
9.00
9.00
6.30
1.58
4.72
13.72

Exhibit 5b: Estimated Production Volumes for Azeri, Chirag and Deepwater Gunashli Project

Year
1998
1999 Early oil complete
2000
2001
2002
2003 Stage 1 complete
2004 Stage 2 complete
2005 Stage 3 complete
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

Full Project (Early Oil + Full Field)


Avg. Daily Production Annual Prod
(Barrels of oil)
(Million barrels/year)
100000
100000
100000
200000
200000
400000
600000
800000
800000
800000
800000
800000
800000
700000
700000
700000
600000
600000
600000
500000
500000
500000
300000
200000
0

36.5
36.5
36.5
73.0
73.0
146.0
219.0
292.0
292.0
292.0
292.0
292.0
292.0
255.5
255.5
255.5
219.0
219.0
219.0
182.5
182.5
182.5
109.5
73.0
0.0

water Gunashli Project

t (Early Oil + Full Field)


Phase 2 - Only Full Field Project
Capital Expenditures
Avg. Daily Production Annual Prod
Capital Expenditures
($ millions)
(Barrels of oil)
(Million barrels/year)
($ millions)
1900.0
0.0
1000.0
0
0.0
1000.0
1000.0
0
0.0
1000.0
1100.0
0
0.0
1100.0
1000.0
100000
36.5
1000.0
1500.0
100000
36.5
1500.0
1500.0
300000
109.5
1500.0
1000.0
500000
182.5
1000.0
700000
255.5
700000
255.5
700000
255.5
700000
255.5
700000
255.5
700000
255.5
600000
219.0
600000
219.0
600000
219.0
500000
182.5
500000
182.5
500000
182.5
400000
146.0
400000
146.0
400000
146.0
200000
73.0
100000
36.5
0
0.0

Discounted Cashflow Evaluation of the Azeri, Chirag and Gunashli Project Assuming no debt of any form (Full

Year
Annual Prod. (Million barrels)

1999
0.00

2000
0.00

2001
0.00

2002
36.50

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

365.00
146.00
109.50
109.50
54.75
54.75
38.33
9.58
28.74
54.75
83.49

AIOC Cashflows
Revenue
less Production Cost
less Transportation Costs
=
Gross Profit
AIOC Cost Recovery (50% of Gross Profits)
=
Pre-tax Profit
AIOC Share
Azerbaijani Taxes
=
After tax profit for AIOC
Add AIOC Cost Recovery
=
Cash flow for Project to AIOC
BP Amoco Cash-flows

less
=
less
=
Add
less
Add

Proportion of BP Amoco in After Tax Profit for AIOC


Interest Cost
Profit Before Tax for BP Amoco
Corporate Taxes of parent country @ 30%
Profit after Tax for BP Amoco
Proportional share of AIOC Cost Recovery
Capex Investment
Debt Issue or Redemption

Cashflow Available to Equity Shareholders of BP Amoco


NPV @ 11.5%
IRR

0.00
0.00
0.00
9.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.94
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.86
0.00
0.00
0.00 18.67
341.00 341.00 375.10 341.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-341.00 -341.00 -375.10 -315.47
-1263.52
-0.01

ject Assuming no debt of any form (Full Equity Financing)

2003
36.50

2004
109.50

2005
182.50

2006
255.50

2007
255.50

2008
255.50

2009
255.50

2010
255.50

2011
255.50

2012
219.00

2013
219.00

365.00 1095.00 1825.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2190.00 2190.00
146.00 438.00 730.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 876.00 876.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
38.33 114.98 191.63 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 229.95 229.95
9.58
28.74
47.91
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
57.49
57.49
28.74
86.23 143.72 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 172.46 172.46
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
83.49 250.48 417.47 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 500.96 500.96

9.80
0.00
9.80
2.94
6.86
18.67
511.50
0.00

29.40
0.00
29.40
8.82
20.58
56.01
511.50
0.00

49.01
0.00
49.01
14.70
34.31
93.35
341.00
0.00

68.61
0.00
68.61
20.58
48.03
130.69
0.00
0.00

68.61
0.00
68.61
20.58
48.03
130.69
0.00
0.00

68.61
0.00
68.61
20.58
48.03
130.69
0.00
0.00

68.61
0.00
68.61
20.58
48.03
130.69
0.00
0.00

68.61
0.00
68.61
20.58
48.03
130.69
0.00
0.00

68.61
0.00
68.61
20.58
48.03
130.69
0.00
0.00

58.81
0.00
58.81
17.64
41.17
112.02
0.00
0.00

58.81
0.00
58.81
17.64
41.17
112.02
0.00
0.00

-485.97 -434.91 -213.35

178.72

178.72

178.72

178.72

178.72

178.72

153.19

153.19

2014
219.00

2015
182.50

2016
182.50

2017
182.50

2018
146.00

2019
146.00

2020
146.00

2021
73.00

2022
36.50

2190.00 1825.00 1825.00 1825.00 1460.00 1460.00 1460.00 730.00 365.00


876.00 730.00 730.00 730.00 584.00 584.00 584.00 292.00 146.00
657.00 547.50 547.50 547.50 438.00 438.00 438.00 219.00 109.50
657.00 547.50 547.50 547.50 438.00 438.00 438.00 219.00 109.50
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00 109.50 54.75
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00 109.50 54.75
229.95 191.63 191.63 191.63 153.30 153.30 153.30 76.65 38.33
57.49
47.91
47.91
47.91
38.33
38.33
38.33 19.16
9.58
172.46 143.72 143.72 143.72 114.98 114.98 114.98 57.49 28.74
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00 109.50 54.75
500.96 417.47 417.47 417.47 333.98 333.98 333.98 166.99 83.49

58.81
0.00
58.81
17.64
41.17
112.02
0.00
0.00

49.01
0.00
49.01
14.70
34.31
93.35
0.00
0.00

49.01
0.00
49.01
14.70
34.31
93.35
0.00
0.00

49.01
0.00
49.01
14.70
34.31
93.35
0.00
0.00

39.21
0.00
39.21
11.76
27.44
74.68
0.00
0.00

39.21
0.00
39.21
11.76
27.44
74.68
0.00
0.00

39.21
0.00
39.21
11.76
27.44
74.68
0.00
0.00

19.60
0.00
19.60
5.88
13.72
37.34
0.00
0.00

9.80
0.00
9.80
2.94
6.86
18.67
0.00
0.00

153.19

127.65

127.65

127.65

102.12

102.12

102.12

51.06

25.53

Discounted Cashflow Evaluation of the Azeri, Chirag and Gunashli Project Assuming no debt of any form (Debt Fin

Year
Annual Prod. (Million barrels)

1999
0.00

2000
0.00

2001
0.00

2002
36.50

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

365.00
146.00
109.50
109.50
54.75
54.75
38.33
9.58
28.74
54.75
83.49

AIOC Cash-flows
Revenue
less Production Cost
less Transportation Costs
=
Gross Profit
AIOC Cost Recovery (50% of Gross Profits)
=
Pre-tax Profit
AIOC Share
Azerbaijani Taxes
=
After tax profit for AIOC
Add AIOC Cost Recovery
=
Cash flow for Project to AIOC
BP Amoco Cash-flows

less
=
less
=
Add
less
Add

Proportion of BP Amoco in After Tax Profit for AIOC


Interest Cost
Profit Before Tax for BP Amoco
Corporate Taxes of parent country @ 30%
Profit after Tax for BP Amoco
Proportional share of AIOC Cost Recovery
Capex Investment
Debt Issue or Redemption

Cashflow Available to Equity Shareholders of BP Amoco


Cumulative Debt @ 6.5%
NPV @ 11.5%
IRR

0.00
0.00
0.00
9.80
0.00 11.08 22.17 34.36
0.00 -11.08 -22.17 -24.55
0.00
-3.32
-6.65
-7.37
0.00
-7.76 -15.52 -17.19
0.00
0.00
0.00 18.67
341.00 341.00 375.10 341.00
170.50 170.50 187.55 170.50
-170.50 -178.26 -203.07 -169.02
170.50 341.00 528.55 699.05
-846.51
NA

no debt of any form (Debt Financing by BP Amoco of 50%)

2003
36.50

2004
109.50

2005
182.50

2006
255.50

2007
255.50

2008
255.50

2009
255.50

2010
255.50

2011
255.50

2012
219.00

2013
219.00

365.00 1095.00 1825.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2190.00 2190.00
146.00 438.00 730.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 876.00 876.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
38.33 114.98 191.63 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 229.95 229.95
9.58
28.74
47.91
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
57.49
57.49
28.74
86.23 143.72 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 172.46 172.46
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
83.49 250.48 417.47 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 500.96 500.96

9.80
45.44
-35.64
-10.69
-24.95
18.67
511.50
255.75

29.40
62.06
-32.66
-9.80
-22.86
56.01
511.50
255.75

49.01
78.69
-29.68
-8.90
-20.77
93.35
341.00
170.50

68.61
89.77
-21.16
-6.35
-14.81
130.69
0.00
-81.24

68.61
84.49
-15.88
-4.76
-11.11
130.69
0.00
-81.24

68.61
79.21
-10.60
-3.18
-7.42
130.69
0.00
-81.24

68.61
73.93
-5.32
-1.59
-3.72
130.69
0.00
-81.24

68.61
68.65
-0.03
-0.01
-0.02
130.69
0.00
-81.24

68.61
63.37
5.25
1.57
3.67
130.69
0.00
-81.24

58.81
58.09
0.72
0.22
0.51
112.02
0.00
-81.24

58.81
52.80
6.00
1.80
4.20
112.02
0.00
-81.24

-262.03 -222.60

-97.93

34.64

38.34

42.03

45.73

49.43

53.12

31.29

34.98

954.80 1210.55 1381.05 1299.81 1218.57 1137.34 1056.10

974.86

893.62

812.38

731.14

2014
219.00

2015
182.50

2016
182.50

2017
182.50

2018
146.00

2019
146.00

2020
146.00

2021
73.00

2022
36.50

2190.00 1825.00 1825.00 1825.00 1460.00 1460.00 1460.00 730.00 365.00


876.00 730.00 730.00 730.00 584.00 584.00 584.00 292.00 146.00
657.00 547.50 547.50 547.50 438.00 438.00 438.00 219.00 109.50
657.00 547.50 547.50 547.50 438.00 438.00 438.00 219.00 109.50
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00 109.50 54.75
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00 109.50 54.75
229.95 191.63 191.63 191.63 153.30 153.30 153.30 76.65 38.33
57.49
47.91
47.91
47.91
38.33
38.33
38.33 19.16
9.58
172.46 143.72 143.72 143.72 114.98 114.98 114.98 57.49 28.74
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00 109.50 54.75
500.96 417.47 417.47 417.47 333.98 333.98 333.98 166.99 83.49

58.81
47.52
11.29
3.39
7.90
112.02
0.00
-81.24

49.01
42.24
6.76
2.03
4.73
93.35
0.00
-81.24

49.01
36.96
12.04
3.61
8.43
93.35
0.00
-81.24

49.01
31.68
17.33
5.20
12.13
93.35
0.00
-81.24

39.21
26.40
12.80
3.84
8.96
74.68
0.00
-81.24

39.21
21.12
18.08
5.43
12.66
74.68
0.00
-81.24

39.21 19.60
9.80
15.84 10.56
5.28
23.37
9.04
4.52
7.01
2.71
1.36
16.36
6.33
3.16
74.68 37.34 18.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
-81.24 -81.24 -81.24

38.68

16.85

20.54

24.24

2.40

6.10

9.80 -37.57 -59.40

649.91

568.67

487.43

406.19

324.95

243.71

162.48

81.24

0.00

Discounted Cashflow Evaluation of the Azeri, Chirag and Gunashli Project Assuming no debt of any form (Project Fin

Year
Annual Prod. (Million barrels)

1999
0.00

2000
0.00

2001
0.00

2002
36.50

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

365.00
146.00
109.50
109.50
54.75
54.75
38.33
9.58
28.74
54.75
83.49

AIOC Cash-flows
Revenue
less Production Cost
less Transportation Costs
=
Gross Profit
AIOC Cost Recovery (50% of Gross Profits)
=
Pre-tax Profit
AIOC Share
Azerbaijani Taxes
=
After tax profit for AIOC
Add AIOC Cost Recovery
=
Cash flow for Project to AIOC
MIG Cashflows
MIG Share in AIOC Profits (68.9%)
less Interest for loan @ 10%
MIG Residual Profit
Add AIOC Cost Recovery Share
Add Debt @ 10% for 41.8%
less Capex Investment
MIG Cashflow
Cumulative Debt for MIG

0.00
0.00
0.00 26.41
0.00 34.45 68.90 106.80
0.00 -34.45 -68.90 -80.39
0.00
0.00
0.00 37.72
344.50 344.50 378.95 344.50
689.00 689.00 757.90 689.00
-344.50 -378.95 -447.85 -387.17
344.50 689.00 1067.95 1412.45

BP Amoco Cash-flows

less
=
less
=
Add
less

Proportion of BP Amoco in Residual Profit of MIG @ 50%


Interest Cost
Profit Before Tax for BP Amoco
Corporate Taxes of parent country @ 30%
Profit after Tax for BP Amoco
Proportional share of MIG Cost Recovery
Equity Investment

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00 18.86
172.25 172.25 189.48 172.25

Cashflow Available to Equity Shareholders of BP Amoco

-172.25 -172.25 -189.48 -153.39

NPV @ 11.5%
IRR

-457.31
0.04

Assuming no debt of any form (Project Financing Through MIG)

2003
36.50

2004
109.50

2005
182.50

2006
255.50

2007
255.50

2008
255.50

2009
255.50

2010
255.50

2011
255.50

2012
219.00

2013
219.00

365.00 1095.00 1825.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2555.00 2190.00 2190.00
146.00 438.00 730.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 1022.00 876.00 876.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00
109.50 328.50 547.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 766.50 657.00 657.00
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
38.33 114.98 191.63 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 268.28 229.95 229.95
9.58
28.74
47.91
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
67.07
57.49
57.49
28.74
86.23 143.72 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 201.21 172.46 172.46
54.75 164.25 273.75 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 383.25 328.50 328.50
83.49 250.48 417.47 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 584.46 500.96 500.96

26.41
79.22 132.03 184.84 184.84 184.84 184.84 184.84 184.84 158.44 158.44
141.25 192.92 244.60 279.05 262.63 246.22 229.80 213.39 196.97 180.56 164.14
-114.84 -113.70 -112.57 -94.20 -77.79 -61.37 -44.96 -28.55 -12.13 -22.12
-5.71
37.72 113.17 188.61 264.06 264.06 264.06 264.06 264.06 264.06 226.34 226.34
516.75 516.75 344.50 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14
1033.50 1033.50 689.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-593.87 -517.28 -268.45
5.71
22.13
38.54
54.95
71.37
87.78
40.07
56.48
1929.20 2445.95 2790.45 2626.31 2462.16 2298.02 2133.87 1969.73 1805.59 1641.44 1477.30

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
18.86
258.38

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
56.58
258.38

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
94.31
172.25

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
132.03
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
132.03
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
132.03
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
132.03
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
132.03
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
132.03
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
113.17
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
113.17
0.00

-239.51 -201.79

-77.94

132.03

132.03

132.03

132.03

132.03

132.03

113.17

113.17

2014
219.00

2015
182.50

2016
182.50

2017
182.50

2018
146.00

2019
146.00

2020
146.00

2021
73.00

2022
36.50

2190.00 1825.00 1825.00 1825.00 1460.00 1460.00 1460.00


876.00 730.00 730.00 730.00 584.00 584.00 584.00
657.00 547.50 547.50 547.50 438.00 438.00 438.00
657.00 547.50 547.50 547.50 438.00 438.00 438.00
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00
229.95 191.63 191.63 191.63 153.30 153.30 153.30
57.49
47.91
47.91
47.91
38.33
38.33
38.33
172.46 143.72 143.72 143.72 114.98 114.98 114.98
328.50 273.75 273.75 273.75 219.00 219.00 219.00
500.96 417.47 417.47 417.47 333.98 333.98 333.98

730.00
292.00
219.00
219.00
109.50
109.50
76.65
19.16
57.49
109.50
166.99

365.00
146.00
109.50
109.50
54.75
54.75
38.33
9.58
28.74
54.75
83.49

158.44 132.03 132.03 132.03 105.62 105.62 105.62


52.81
26.41
147.73 131.32 114.90
98.49
82.07
65.66
49.24
32.83
16.41
10.71
0.71
17.13
33.54
23.55
39.97
56.38
19.98
9.99
226.34 188.61 188.61 188.61 150.89 150.89 150.89
75.45
37.72
-164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14 -164.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
72.90
25.18
41.60
58.01
10.30
26.71
43.13 -68.72 -116.43
1313.15 1149.01

984.86

820.72

656.58

492.43

328.29

164.14

0.00

5.35
0.00
5.35
1.61
3.75
113.17
0.00

0.36
0.00
0.36
0.11
0.25
94.31
0.00

8.56
0.00
8.56
2.57
6.00
94.31
0.00

16.77
0.00
16.77
5.03
11.74
94.31
0.00

11.78
0.00
11.78
3.53
8.24
75.45
0.00

19.98
0.00
19.98
5.99
13.99
75.45
0.00

28.19
0.00
28.19
8.46
19.73
75.45
0.00

9.99
0.00
9.99
3.00
6.99
37.72
0.00

5.00
0.00
5.00
1.50
3.50
18.86
0.00

116.92

94.56

100.30

106.05

83.69

89.43

95.18

44.72

22.36