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E c o n o m i c &

S o c i a l

Volume I: Comprehensive Tables

United Nations
New York, 2011

A f f a i r s

World Population Prospects


The 2010 Revision

ST/ESA/SER.A/313

Department of Economic and Social Affairs


Population Division

World Population Prospects


The 2010 Revision
Volume I: Comprehensive Tables

United Nations
New York, 2011

DESA
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and
environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three
main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of
economic, social and environmental data and information on which States
Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take
stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in
many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing
or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the
ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations
conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through
technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

Note
The designations employed in this report and the material presented in it do
not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the
Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries.
Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters
combined with figures.
This publication has been issued without formal editing.

Suggested citation:
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I:
Comprehensive Tables. ST/ESA/SER.A/313.

PREFACE
This report presents the highlights of the results of the 2010 Revision of the official United Nations
population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2010 Revision constitutes the
twenty second round of the global population estimates and projections produced by the Population
Division since 1951.
The 2010 Revision breaks new ground in the production of population projections. It is the first
standard Revision to include projections up to 2100 for all countries and areas of the world. Previous
Revisions presented country projections only for the period ending in 2050. In order to extend the
projection period to 2100, a new method for the projection of fertility had to be developed. The
method used in the 2010 Revision is based on the advances made in projecting fertility since the
2000 Revision, advances that have been combined with a probabilistic approach to yield the future
paths of fertility used in producing the medium variant of the 2010 Revision. The standard output of
the 2010 Revision does not, however, include fully probabilistic projections. The standard output of
the 2010 Revision includes only the usual projection variants and scenarios included in other
Revisions of World Population Prospects.
The full results of the 2010 Revision are presented in two volumes. The first volume provides
comprehensive tables displaying key demographic indicators for each development group, major
area, region and country for selected periods or dates within 1950-2100. The second volume contains
demographic profiles presenting time series and plots covering the period from 1950 to 2100 for
selected indicators for each country with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2010 as well as for
development groups, major areas and regions. This volume provides, for each country and area, a
brief description of the data sources and demographic methods used to make the base-year estimates
for each country or area. Key findings of the 2010 Revision are also included in each volume
together with the projections assumptions, and a wall chart provides summary indicators for the most
recent period.
The detailed results of the 2010 Revision are made available through a variety of media. The
Population Divisions website provides access to the comprehensive data organized in Excel files as
well as to an interactive database allowing the user to obtain specific information on a few countries
at a time. The website can be accessed at www.unpopulation.org. Users requiring the complete
results of the 2010 Revision can purchase them on CD-ROM/DVD. A description of the data
contained in the different CD-ROMs available and an order form are posted on the Population
Divisions web site.
Responsibility for the 2010 Revision rests with the Population Division. In preparing the 2010
Revision, the Population Division relied on the collaboration of the regional commissions, especially
the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, and that of UNAIDS, the
specialized agencies and other relevant bodies of the United Nations system. The Statistics Division
of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, through its
United Nations Demographic Yearbook and its accompanying databases, provided access to official
national population statistics used in the preparation of the 2010 Revision. The Population Division is
grateful for the contributions made by all these entities.
For further information about the 2010 Revision, please contact Ms. Hania Zlotnik, Director,
Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA (Fax: 1 212 963 2147).

iii

CONTENTS
Page

Preface ............................................................................................................................................................ iii


Explanatory Notes ............................................................................................................................................. viii
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................

xv

Chapters
I.

WORLD POPULATION TRENDS ..............................................................................................................


A. Population size and growth ..........................................................................................................
B. Population age composition .........................................................................................................

1
1
3

II.

FERTILITY ............................................................................................................................................ 11

III.

MORTALITY AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS............................................................... 17


A. Trends and prospects in world mortality ........................................................................................ 17
B. The demographic impact of AIDS .................................................................................................. 18

IV.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION................................................................................................................ 25

V.

ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE 2010 REVISION ................................................................................


A. Fertility assumptions: convergence toward total fertility below replacement level .....................
B. Mortality assumptions: increasing life expectancy except when affected by HIV/AIDS ............
C. International migration assumptions ............................................................................................
D. Eight projection variants ..............................................................................................................
E. Methodological changes introduced in the 2010 Revision...........................................................

27
27
35
37
37
38

VI.

ORDERING THE DATA ON CD-ROM ..................................................................................................... 41

VII.

LIST OF PREVIOUS REVISION................................................................................................................. 77

VIII.

SUMMARY TABLES .............................................................................................................................. 79

TABLES
No.

I.1.
I.2.
I.3.
I.4.
I.5.
I.6.
II.1.
II.2.

Page

Population of the world, major development groups and major areas, 1950, 1975, 2011, 2050
and 2100, according to different variants ............................................................................................ 2
Percentage distribution of the world population by development group and major area,
estimates and projections according to different variants, 1950-2100 ................................................ 2
Average annual rates of change of the population of the world and major areas, 1950-1980,
5
1980-2011, 2011-2050 and 2050-2100 for different variants ..................................................................
Median age in years for the world and major areas, 1950, 1980, 2011, 2050 and 2100,
according to different variants............................................................................................................. 5
Average annual rates of change of the total population and the population in broad age groups
by major area, 2011-2050 and 2050-2100........................................................................................... 7
Distribution of the population of the world and major areas by broad age groups, 2010,
2050 and 2100 (percentage) ................................................................................................................ 8
Estimated and projected total fertility for the world, major development groups and major areas,
1970-1975, 1990-1995, 2005-2010, 2045-2050 and 2095-2100 according to different variants ........ 11
Distribution of the world population as well as countries and areas according to the level of
total fertility in selected periods (medium variant) ............................................................................. 12

iv

No.

III.1.
III.2.
III.3.
IV.1.
V.1.

Page

Life expectancy at birth for the world, major development groups and major areas, 2005-2010
and 2045-2050.....................................................................................................................................
Life expectancy by sex for the world and major development groups, 2005-2010 and
2045-2050 ...........................................................................................................................................
Difference in projected population in the medium variant versus a no-AIDS scenario for groups
of affected countries, 2010, 2015 and 2050 and 2100 .........................................................................
Average annual net number of migrants per decade by development group and major area,
1950-2050 (medium variant) ...............................................................................................................
Projection variants in terms of assumptions for fertility, mortality and international migration.........

17
20
21
26
38

FIGURE
No.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

Page

Population of the world, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants ........................
Average annual rate of population change for the world and the major development
groups, 1950-2100...............................................................................................................................
Total fertility trajectories for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2010 estimation
and 2010-2100 projection (medium variant) ......................................................................................
Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2050 ......................
Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major areas, 1950-2050 ..............................................
Under-five mortality for the world and selected regions, 1950-2050..................................................
Percentage distribution of deaths by age, Southern Africa, 1985-1990 and 2005-2010 .....................
Population in 2015, with AIDS and without AIDS, by sex and age group, Southern Africa ..............
Schematic phases of the fertility transition .........................................................................................
Total fertility decrements and projection intervals of double-logistic curves for Algeria ..................
Probabilistic trajectories of projected total fertility (2010-2100) for Algeria ....................................
Total fertility decrements and projection intervals of double-logistic curves for Kenya ....................
Probabilistic trajectories of projected total fertility (2010-2100) for Kenya (adjusted) ......................
Probabilistic trajectories of projected total fertility (2010-2100) for Kazakhstan (adjusted) ..............

xix
4
15
21
22
22
23
23
29
30
31
32
33
34

ANNEX TABLES
SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
Population size and growth
A.1.
A.2.
A.3.
A.4.
A.5.
A.6.
A.7.
A.8.
A.9.
A.10.

Total population at mid-year by major area and region: estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100......
Total population at mid-year by major area and region: high variant, 2010-2100 ..................................
Total population at mid-year by major area and region: low variant, 2010-2100 ...................................
Total population at mid-year by major area and region: constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100...............
Average annual rate of population change by major area and region: estimates and medium
variant, 1950-2100 ..................................................................................................................................
Average annual rate of population change by major area and region: high variant, 2010-2100 .............
Average annual rate of population change by major area and region: low variant, 2010-2100 ..............
Average annual rate of population change by major area and region: constant-fertility
variant, 2010-2100 ..................................................................................................................................
Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country: estimates and medium
variant, 1950-2100 ..................................................................................................................................
Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country: high variant, 2010-2100 ....................
v

146
148
149
150
152
154
155
156
158
168

No.

A.11.
A.12.
A.13.
A.14.
A.15.
A.16.
A.17.
A.18.

Page

Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country: low variant, 2010-2100 .....................
Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country: constant-fertility variant,
2010-2100 ...............................................................................................................................................
Average annual rate of population change by major area, region and country: estimates
and medium variant, 1950-2100..............................................................................................................
Average annual rate of population change by major area, region and country: high variant,
2010-2100 ...............................................................................................................................................
Average annual rate of population change by major area, region and country: low variant,
2010-2100 ...............................................................................................................................................
Average annual rate of population change by major area, region and country:
constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100 .......................................................................................................
Annual interpolated mid-year population by major area, region and country: estimates, 1995-2010 .....
Annual interpolated mid-year population by major area, region and country: medium
variant, 2010-2030 ..................................................................................................................................

174
180
186
196
202
208
214
224

Fertility
A.19.
A.20.
A.21.
A.22.
A.23.
A.24.

Crude birth rate by major area, region and country: estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100 ............
Crude birth rate by major area, region and country: estimates and high variant, 1950-2100 ..................
Crude birth rate by major area, region and country: estimates and low variant, 1950-2100 ...................
Total fertility by major area, region and country: estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100 ................
Total fertility by major area, region and country: estimates and high variant, 1950-2100 ......................
Total fertility by major area, region and country: estimates and low variant, 1950-2100 .......................

234
244
254
264
274
284

Mortality
A.25.
A.26.
A.27.
A.28.
A.29.
A.30.

Crude death rate by major area, region and country: estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100 ...........
Crude death rate by major area, region and country: estimates and high variant, 1950-2100 .................
Crude death rate by major area, region and country: estimates and low variant, 1950-2100 ..................
Life expectancy at birth by major area, region and country: estimates and projections, 1950-2100.......
Infant mortality rate by major area, region and country: estimates and projections, 1950-2100 ............
Under-five mortality by major area, region and country: estimates and projections 1995-2100 ............

294
304
314
324
356
366

Population age composition and dependency ratios


A.31.
A.32.
A.33

Population by broad age group, major area, region and country: estimates and medium
variant, 1950-2100 ..................................................................................................................................
Population in school ages by major area, region and country: estimates and medium
variant, 1950-2100 ..................................................................................................................................
Dependency ratios by major area, region and country: estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100 .......

vi

372
412
460

EXPLANATORY NOTES
The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout this report:
Two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not reported separately.
A hyphen (-) indicates that the item is not applicable.
A minus sign (-) before a figure indicates a decrease.
A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals.
Years given refer to 1 July.
Use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 1995-2000, signifies the full period involved,
from 1 July of the first year to 1 July of the second year.
Numbers and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

References to countries, territories and areas:


The designations employed and the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,
territory or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The designation more developed and less developed regions are intended for statistical purposes and
do not express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development
process. The term country as used in this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas.
More developed regions comprise all regions of Europe plus Northern America, Australia/New Zealand
and Japan. Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), and Latin
America and the Caribbean as well as Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Countries or areas in the more
developed regions are designated as developed countries. Countries or areas in the less developed
regions are designated as developing countries.
The least developed countries, as defined by the United Nations General Assembly in its resolutions
(59/209, 59/210, 60/33, 62/97, 64/L.55) include 48 countries in 2011: 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania
and one in Latin America and the Caribbean. Those 48 countries are: Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh,
Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
Haiti, Kiribati, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,
Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Samoa, So Tom and Prncipe, Senegal,
Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tuvalu, Uganda, United Republic of
Tanzania, Vanuatu, Yemen and Zambia. These countries are also included in the less developed regions.
The group denominated other less developed countries comprises all countries in the less developed
regions minus the least developed countries.
The term sub-Saharan Africa is used to designate the countries in Africa that exclude those in Northern
Africa but include Sudan.
Countries and areas are grouped geographically into six major areas designated as: Africa; Asia; Europe;
Latin America and the Caribbean; Northern America, and Oceania. These major areas are further divided
into 21 geographical regions.
The names and composition of geographical areas follow those presented in Standard country or area
codes for statistical use (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/49/Rev.3), available at
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49.htm.

vii

The following abbreviations have been used:

AIDS

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

ART

Antiretroviral therapy

DESA

Department of Economic and Social Affairs

HIV

Human immunodeficiency virus

MDGs

Millennium Development Goals

SAR

Special Administrative Region

UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS

viii

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BY MAJOR AREA


AND REGION OF THE WORLD
Africa
Eastern Africa

Middle Africa

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Burundi
Comoros
Djibouti
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mauritius 2
Mayotte
Mozambique
Runion
Rwanda
Seychelles*
Somalia
Uganda
United Republic of
Tanzania 4
Zambia
Zimbabwe

Angola
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Congo
Democratic Republic of the
Congo
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
So Tom and Prncipe

Algeria
Egypt
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Morocco
Sudan 1
Tunisia
Western Sahara

Benin
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Cte dIvoire
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Nigeria
Saint Helena 3 *
Senegal
Sierra Leone

Southern Africa
Botswana
Lesotho
Namibia
South Africa
Swaziland

Togo

Including Southern Sudan which voted in favor of independence, but was not an official UN Member State as of May 2011
Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon.
3
Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha.
4
Including Zanzibar.
2

ix

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Asia
Eastern Asia

South-Central Asia

South-Eastern Asia

Western Asia

Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
Indonesia
Lao Peoples Democratic
Republic
Malaysia 13
Myanmar
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Timor-Leste
Viet Nam

Armenia
Azerbaijan 9
Bahrain
Cyprus 11
Georgia 12
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Occupied Palestinian
Territory 14
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Syrian Arab Republic
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Yemen

Central Asia
China 7
China, Hong Kong SAR 8
China, Macao SAR 10
Democratic Peoples
Republic of Korea
Japan
Mongolia
Republic of Korea

Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Southern Asia
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
India
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Maldives 15
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka

Includes other non-specified areas


The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
7
For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of
China.
8
As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
9
Including Nagorno-Karabakh.
10
As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
11
Including Northern-Cyprus.
12
Including Abkhazia and South Ossetia
13
Including Sabah and Sarawak.
14
Including East Jerusalem.
15
Including Transnistria.
6

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Europe
Southern Europe

Eastern Europe

Northern Europe

Belarus
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Republic of Moldova
Romania
Russian Federation
Slovakia
Ukraine

Channel Islands 16
Denmark
Estonia
Faeroe Islands*
Finland 17
Iceland
Ireland
Isle of Man*
Latvia
Lithuania
Norway 19
Sweden
United Kingdom of Great
Britain and Northern
Ireland 21

Albania
Andorra*
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
Gibraltar*
Greece
Holy See 18 *
Italy
Malta
Montenegro
Portugal
San Marino*
Serbia 20
Slovenia
Spain 22
The former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia 23

16

Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.


Including land Islands.
18
Refers to the Vatican City State.
19
Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.
20
Including Kosovo.
21
Also referred to as United Kingdom.
22
Including Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla
23
Also referred to as TFYR Macedonia.
17

xi

Western Europe
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Liechtenstein*
Luxembourg
Monaco*
Netherlands
Switzerland

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Latin America and the Caribbean


Caribbean

Central America

South America

Anguilla*
Antigua and Barbuda*
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
British Virgin Islands*
Cayman Islands*
Cuba
Dominica*
Dominican Republic
Grenada
Guadeloupe 24
Haiti
Jamaica
Martinique
Montserrat*
Netherlands Antilles 25
Puerto Rico
Saint Kitts and Nevis*
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the
Grenadines
Trinidad and Tobago
Turks and Caicos Islands*
United States Virgin
Islands

Belize
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama

Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)*
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of)

24
25

Including Saint-Barthlemy and Saint-Martin (French part).


Refers to Curaao, Sint Maarten (Dutch part), Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius

xii

CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES (continued)

Northern America
Bermuda*
Canada
Greenland*
Saint Pierre and Miquelon*
United States of America

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand

Melanesia

Micronesia

Polynesia 26

Australia 27
New Zealand

Fiji
New Caledonia
Papua New Guinea
Solomon Islands
Vanuatu

Guam
Kiribati*
Marshall Islands*
Micronesia
(Federated States of)
Nauru*
Northern Mariana Islands*
Palau*

American Samoa*
Cook Islands*
French Polynesia
Niue*
Samoa
Tokelau*
Tonga
Tuvalu*
Wallis and Futuna Islands*

Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo

Cte d'Ivoire
Democratic Republic
of the Congo
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau

Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mayotte
Mozambique
Namibia

Niger
Nigeria
Runion
Rwanda
Saint Helena
So Tom and Prncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa

NOTE: Countries with a population of less than 100,000 in 2010 are indicated by an asterisk (*).
26
27

Including Pitcairn.
Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and Norfolk Island.

xiii

Sudan
Swaziland
Togo
Uganda
United Republic
of Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The 2010 Revision is the twenty second round of official United Nations population estimates and
projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the
United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for
activities requiring population information. The 2010 Revision builds on the 2008 Revision and
incorporates the results of the 2000 and 2010 round of national population censuses as well as of recent
specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other
information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals,
including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide
demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2010 Revision provides the population basis for
the assessment of those goals.
According to the 2010 Revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections,
the world population is projected to reach 7 billion in late 2011, surpass 9 billion people by 2050 and
exceed 10 billion in 2100 (figure 1).
Most of the additional 3 billion people from now to 2100 will enlarge the population of developing
countries, which is projected to rise from 5.7 billion in 2011 to 8.0 billion in 2050 and to 8.8 billion in
2100, and will be distributed over the whole period among the population aged 15-59 (1.2 billion) and 60
or over (1.9 billion) because the number of children under age 15 in developing countries will decrease.
In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to change minimally, passing
from 1.24 billion in 2011 to 1.34 billion in 2100, and would have declined to 1.11 billion were it not for
the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is projected to average 2.2
million persons annually from 2011 to 2050 and 0.8 million from 2050 to 2100.
The results of the 2010 Revision incorporate the findings of the most recent national population
censuses and of numerous specialized population surveys carried out around the world. The 2010
Revision provides the demographic data and indicators to assess trends at the global, regional and national
levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations system.
Population in developing countries still young
Currently the population of the less developed regions is still young, with children under age 15
accounting with 29 per cent of the population and young persons aged 15 to 24 accounting for a further
18 per cent. In fact, the numbers of children and young people in the less developed regions are at an all
time high (1.6 billion children and 1.0 billion young people), posing a major challenge for their countries,
which are faced with the necessity of providing education or employment to large cohorts of children and
youth even as the current economic and financial crisis unfolds. The situation in the least developed
countries is even more pressing because children under 15 constitute 40 per cent of their population and
young people account for a further 20 per cent.
In the more developed regions, children and youth account for just 17 per cent and 13 per cent of
the population, respectively, and whereas the number of children is expected to change little in the future,
remaining close to 218 million in 2050 and 226 in 2100; the number of young people is projected to
decrease from 156 million currently to 144 million in 2050 and then slight increase to 151 million in
2100.
In both the more and the less developed regions, the number of people in the main working ages, 25
to 59, is at an all time high: 606 million and 2.5 billion, respectively. Yet, whereas in the more developed
regions that number is expected to peak over the next decade and decline thereafter reaching 531 millions
xiv

in 2050 and 525 million in 2100, in the less developed regions it will continue rising, reaching 3.6 billion
in 2050 and 3.7 billion in 2100 and increasing by nearly half a billion over the next decade. These
population trends justify the urgency of supporting employment creation in developing countries as part
of any strategy to address the global economic crisis that the world is experiencing.
Globally, population aged 60 or over is the fastest growing
Furthermore, the implications of population ageing cannot be dismissed. In the more developed
regions, the population aged 60 or over is increasing at the fastest pace ever (growing at 2.4 per cent
annually before 2050 and 0.7 per cent annually from 2050 to 2100) and is expected to increase by more
than 50 per cent over the next four decades, rising from 274 million in 2011 to 418 million in 2050 and to
433 million in 2100. Compared with the more developed world, the population of the less developed
regions is ageing rapidly. Over the next three decades, the population aged 60 or over in the developing
world is projected to increase at rates far surpassing 3 per cent per year and its numbers are expected to
rise from 510 million in 2011 to 1.6 billion in 2050 and to 2.4 billion in 2100.
Projected trends are contingent on fertility declines in developing countries
Population ageing results mainly from declining fertility. According to the 2010 Revision, fertility in
the less developed regions as a whole is expected to drop from 2.67 children per woman in 2005-2010 to
2.19 in 2045-2050 and to 2.02 in 2095-2100. The reduction projected for the group of 48 least developed
countries is even steeper: from 4.41 children per woman to 2.76 children per woman in 2045-2050 and to
2.13 in 2095-2100. To achieve such reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands,
particularly in the least developed countries. Around 2009, the use of modern contraceptive methods in
the least developed countries was a low 25 per cent among women of reproductive age who were married
or in union and a further 24 per cent of those women had an unmet need for family planning. The urgency
of realizing the projected reductions of fertility is brought into focus by considering that, if fertility were
to remain constant at the levels estimated for 2005-2010, the population of the less developed regions
would increase to 9.7 billion in 2050 and to 25.8 billion in 2100 instead of the 8.0 billion and 8.8 billion
projected by assuming that fertility declines. That is, without further reductions of fertility, the world
population by 2100 could increase by nearly six times as much as currently expected.
Projected growth linked to sustained progress in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment
The projected population trends also depend on achieving a major increase in the proportion of
AIDS patients who get anti-retroviral therapy to treat the disease and on the success of efforts to control
the further spread of HIV.
In the 2010 Revision, the impact of the epidemic was modeled in 48 countries where adult HIV
prevalence reached 1 per cent or higher at some point during 1980-2010 or where the number of people
living with HIV/AIDS was at least half a million in 2009. Among those 48 countries, 37 are in Africa and
15 had an adult HIV prevalence of at least 5 per cent in 2010.
The 2008 Revision modeled the impact of HIV/AIDS in 58 affected countries, eleven of which have
been dropped from the list of affected countries in the 2010 Revision because their HIV prevalence was
revised downward (Barbados, Brazil, Cambodia Dominican Republic, Estonia, Honduras, Mauritius,
Papua New Guinea, Sudan, Trinidad and Tobago, Ukraine) and one has been added (Gambia). In
projecting the effect of the disease, it has been assumed that 41 of the affected countries will manage to
provide by 2015 anti-retroviral treatment to 70 per cent or more of the adult persons suffering from AIDS
and that another five will reach treatment levels ranging from 50 per cent to 70 per cent by 2015. In the
rest of the affected countries, treatment levels are expected to be lower, reaching between 40 per cent and
50 per cent by 2015.
xv

However, the realization of these new projections depends on sustained funding for HIV/AIDS
prevention and treatment programmes in the affected countries, funding that is highly dependent on the
commitment of donor countries and needs to be maintained despite the global economic downturn.
The full results of the 2010 Revision will be issued in a series of three volumes. A wallchart 28 was
already published. Data on particular countries can also be accessed online at the website of the
Population Division (www.unpopulation.org).

2010 Revision of World Population Prospects


Key Findings
1.

In July 2011, the world population will reach 6.97 billion, 467 million more than in 2005 or a gain
of 77 million persons annually. Assuming that fertility levels continue to decline, the world
population is expected to reach 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100 and to be increasing by
about 35 million persons annually by 2100, according to the medium variant.

2.

Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes. In the medium
variant, fertility declines from 2.52 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.17 children per woman
in 2045-2050. If fertility were to remain about half a child above the levels projected in the medium
variant, world population would reach 10.6 billion by 2050 and 15.8 billion by 2100. A fertility
path half a child below the medium would lead to a population of 8.1 billion by mid-century and
6.2 billion by the end of the century. Consequently, population growth until 2050 is inevitable even
if the decline of fertility accelerates.

3.

In the more developed regions, fertility has increased slightly in recent years so that its estimated
level in 2005-2010, 1.66 children per woman, according to the 2010 Revision is higher than the one
reported in the 2008 Revision (1.64 children per woman). As a result of the slightly higher projected
fertility and a sustained net in-migration averaging 2.2 million annually from 2011 to 2050 and 0.8
million from 2050 to 2100, the population of the more developed regions is expected to increase
slightly from 1.24 billion in 2011 to 1.31 billion in 2050 and to 1.34 billion.

4.

The population of the 48 least developed countries is still the fastest growing in the world, at 2.5 per
cent per year. Although its rate of increase is expected to moderate significantly over the next
decades, the population of the least developed countries is projected to double, passing from 0.85
billion in 2011 to 1.7 billion in 2050 and to 2.7 billion in 2100. Growth in the rest of the developing
world is also projected to be robust, though less rapid, with its population rising from 4.9 billion in
2011 to 6.3 billion 2050 and then slightly declining to 6.1 billion in 2100 according to the medium
variant.

5.

Slow population growth brought about by reductions in fertility leads to population ageing, that is, it
produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases while that of younger persons
decreases. In the more developed regions, 22 per cent of population is already aged 60 years or over
and that proportion is projected to reach 32 per cent in 2050 and 33 in 2100. In developed countries
as a whole, the number of older persons has already surpassed the number of children (persons
under age 15), and by 2050 and 2100 the number of older persons in developed countries will be
nearly twice the number of children.

28

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population 2010.
Wallchart (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.09.XIII.2).
xvi

Figure 1. Population of the world, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants
30

Population (Billions)

25

20

15

10

0
1950 1960

1970 1980

1990 2000 2010

2020 2030

2040 2050 2060

2070 2080

2090 2100

Year

Medium

Low

High

Constant fertility

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
(2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

6.

Population ageing is less advanced in developing countries. Nevertheless, the populations of a


majority of them are poised to enter a period of rapid population ageing. In developing countries as
a whole, just 9 per cent of the population is today aged 60 years or over but that proportion will
more than double by 2050, reaching 20 per cent that year, and more than triple in 2100, reaching 30
per cent that year.

7.

Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to more than triple by 2100, increasing
from 784 million in 2011 to 2 billion in 2050 and 2.8 billion in 2100. Furthermore, already 65 per
cent of the worlds older persons live in the less developed regions and by 2050, 79 per cent will do
so. By 2100, this figure will reach 85 per cent.

8.

In ageing populations, the numbers of persons with older ages grow faster the higher the age range
considered. Thus, whereas the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected to almost triple, that
of persons aged 80 or over (the oldest-old) is projected to increase almost eight-fold, to reach 402
million in 2050 and 792 million in 2100. Today, just about half of the oldest-old live in developing
countries but that share is expected to reach 69 per cent in 2050.

9.

Although the population of all countries is expected to age over the foreseeable future, the
population will remain relatively young in countries where fertility is still high, many of which are
experiencing very rapid population growth. High population growth rates prevail in many
developing countries, most of which are least developed. Between 2011 and 2100, the populations
of 32 countries, the majority of which are least developed, will triple or more. Among them, the
populations of Burkina Faso, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania
and Zambia are projected to increase by 500 per cent or more by 2100.

xvii

10. In sharp contrast, the populations of 49 countries or areas are expected to decrease between 2011
and 2050, 44 of which are expected to continue to decrease between 2050 and 2100. These
countries include Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Japan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Portugal, Republic of Moldova, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine and
United States Virgin Islands, all of which are expected to see their populations decline by at least 10
per cent by 2050. Including those 44 countries, the populations in a total of 123 countries or areas
are expected to decrease between 2050 and 2100, 22 of which are expected to see their populations
decline by at least 20 per cent in that period.
11. Population growth remains concentrated in the populous countries. During 2011-2100, six countries
are expected to account for half of the worlds projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the
United States of America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania and
Uganda, listed according to the size of their contribution to global population growth.
12. Fertility has continued to fall in the vast majority of countries in the less developed regions. The
number of developing countries with high fertility (5 children or more per woman) declined from
59 in 1990-1995 to 27 in 2005-2010, and their share of the world population dropped from 13 per
cent to 8 per cent. Over the same period, the number of developing countries with fertility levels
that do not ensure the replacement of the population increased from 13 to 32.
13. Most developed countries have had below-replacement fertility (below 2.1 children per woman) for
two or three decades. Among the 45 developed countries with at least 100,000 inhabitants in 2011,
42 had below-replacement fertility in 1990-1995 and all of them in 2005-2010. However, between
the 2000-2005 and 2005-2010, 35 developed countries experienced slight increases in fertility. For
the more developed regions as a whole, total fertility increased from 1.57 to 1.66 children per
woman between those two periods. Yet, in 2005-2010, 25 developed countries, including Japan and
most of the countries in Southern and Eastern Europe, still had fertility levels below 1.5 children per
woman.
14. In 2005-2010, the 76 countries with below-replacement fertility accounted for 47 per cent of the
world population. The most populous developing countries with below replacement fertility are
China, Brazil, Viet Nam, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand and the Republic of Korea, in order
of population size.
15. Globally, total fertility is expected to fall from 2.52 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.17 in
2045-2050 and to 2.03 in 2095-2100 according to the medium variant. However, in the more
developed regions, total fertility is projected to increase from 1.66 children per woman currently to
1.97 in 2045-2050 and 2.07 in 2095-2100. A major reduction of fertility is projected for the group
of least developed countries (from 4.41 to 2.76 children per woman in 2045-2050 and to 2.13 in
2095-2100) and the fertility of the rest of the developing world is expected to drop from 2.41
children per woman currently to 2.00 in 2045-2050 and 1.97 in 2095-2100, thus nearly converging
to the fertility levels by then typical of the developed world.
16. The median age, that is, the age that divides the population in two halves of equal size, is an
indicator of population ageing. Globally, the median age is projected to increase from 29 to 38 years
between 2011 and 2050 and from 38 to 42 years between 2050 and 2100. Europe has today the
oldest population, with a median age of nearly 40 years, which is expected to reach 46 years in 2050
and then slightly decline to 45 years.

xviii

17. The median age is higher in countries that have been experiencing low fertility for a long time. In
2010, 18 developed countries or areas had a median age of 40 years or higher, up from 11 in 2005.
Among developing countries or areas, only Hong Kong SAR China reached median ages above.
The pervasiveness of population ageing will increase by 2050 when all 45 developed countries are
projected to have median ages higher than 40 years and 55 developing countries will also have
similarly high median ages. Between 2050 and 2100 another 57 developing countries will have such
high median ages. Whereas today about 6 per cent of the world population lives in countries where
median ages are 40 years or higher, the equivalent proportions in 2050 and 2100 are projected to be
41 per cent and 68 per cent, respectively.
18. Countries where fertility remains high and has declined only moderately will experience the slowest
population ageing. By 2050, slightly more than one in five countries is projected to have a median
age under 30 years (49 countries). The youngest populations will be found among the least
developed countries, eighteen of which are projected to have median ages below 25 years in 2050.
However, the pace of population aging in these countries after 2050 will speed-up. By 2100 only
three countries (Malawi, Somalia and Zambia) are expected to have median age under 30 years with
Zambia the youngest having a median age of 26.4 years.
19. Increasing longevity also contributes to population ageing. Globally, life expectancy at birth is
projected to rise from 68 years in 2005-2010 to 76 years in 2045-2050 and to 81 years in 20952100. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 77 years in 2005-2010 to 83
years in 2045-2050 and to 88 years in 2095-2100, while in the less developed regions the increase is
expected to be from 66 years currently to 74 years by mid-century and 80 years by the end of the
century.
20. Life expectancy remains low in the least developed countries, at just 57 years in 2005-2010, and
although it is projected to reach 69 years in 2045-2050 and 77 years in 2095-2100, realizing such
increase is contingent on reducing the spread of HIV and combating successfully other infectious
diseases. Similar challenges must be confronted if the projected increase of life expectancy in the
rest of the developing countries, from under 68 years today to 76 years by mid-century and to 81
year by the end of the century, is to be achieved.
21. A major concern is that most developing countries are unlikely to meet the goal of reducing underfive mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, as called for in the Millennium Development
Goals. According to the 2010 Revision, 138 of the 153 developing countries with more than
100,000 inhabitants in 2011 will not reach that goal. Furthermore, 62 developing countries, located
mainly in sub-Saharan Africa or belonging to the group of least developed countries, are projected
to have in 2015 an under-five mortality higher than 45 deaths per 1000, the less demanding target
set by the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development.
22. Among the more developed regions, Eastern Europe has the lowest life expectancy and it has
experienced reductions in life expectancy at birth since the late 1980s. In 2005-2010 life expectancy
in the region increased somewhat but at 69.7 years was lower than it had been in 1970-1975 (71.5
years). Despite having recorded some recovery since the late 1990s, Republic of Moldova, the
Russian Federation and Ukraine have currently the lowest life expectancies among developed
countries (below 70 years).

xix

23. Although the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major issue of concern in the global health
agenda, adult HIV prevalence reached a peak over the past decade or so in at least 85% of the 48
countries considered to be most affected by the epidemic and a growing number of them are
reaching and maintaining lower prevalence levels. Nevertheless, in countries where prevalence has
been high, the impact of the epidemic in terms of morbidity, mortality and slower population
growth continues to be evident. Thus, in Southern Africa, the region with the highest prevalence of
the disease, life expectancy has fallen from 61 years in 1990-1995 to 51 years in 2005-2010 and is
only recently beginning to increase. Nevertheless, life expectancy in the region is not expected to
recover the level it had in the early 1990s before 2035. As a consequence, the growth rate of the
population in the region has plummeted, passing from 2.4 per cent annually in 1990-1995 to 1.0 per
cent annually in 2005-2010 and is expected to continue declining for the foreseeable future.
24. Given the low fertility prevailing in developed countries, deaths are expected to exceed births over
the foreseeable future. Consequently, the population of the more developed regions would be
decreasing if the excess of deaths over births were not counterbalanced by a net migration gain.
During 2010-2050, the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected
to be 87 million, whereas the excess of deaths over births is 11 million, implying an overall growth
of 76 million. During 2050-2100, the net number of international migrants to more developed
regions is projected to be 49 million, whereas the excess of deaths over births is 24 million,
indicating an overall growth of 25 million.
25. In 2005-2010, net migration in three countries or areas more than doubled the contribution of
natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth: Italy, Portugal and Japan. In addition,
in a further 29 countries or areas, net migration counterbalanced totally the excess of deaths over
births.
26. In terms of annual averages, the major net receivers of international migrants during 2010-2050 are
projected to be the United States (924.000 annually), Canada (183,000), Spain (163,000), Italy
(144,000) and the United Kingdom (143,000) . The major countries of net emigration are projected to
be China (-357,000 annually), India (-241,000), Mexico (-210,000), Pakistan (-194,000), Indonesia (153,000) the Philippines (-152,000) and Bangladesh (-119,000). During 2050-2100, the major net
receivers of international migrants are projected to be the United States (378,000 annually), Italy
(79,000) and Canada (76,000); whereas the major net senders are projected to China (208,000
annually), India (101,000), Pakistan (83,000), the Philippines (64,000) and Bangladesh (63,000).
Although the current economic crisis may reduce migration flows in comparison to those registered
over the recent past, the major economic and demographic asymmetries that will persist are likely to
remain powerful generators of international migration over the medium-term future.

xx

I. WORLD POPULATION TRENDS


A. POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH
On 1 July 2011, the world population reached more than 6.9 billion with 5.7 billion (or 82 per cent
of the worlds total) living in the less developed regions (table I.1). Out of these, 851 million reside in the
48 least developed countries and account for 12.2 per cent of the world population. More developed
countries, whose total population amounts to 1.2 billion inhabitants, account for 17.8 per cent of the
world population (table I.2).
According to the medium variant, the world population is projected to reach 9.3 billion persons by
2050, that is, 2.3 billion more than in 2011, an increase close to the combined populations of China and
India today. Most of this growth will be absorbed by developing countries. Between 2011 and 2050, the
population of the more developed regions will remain largely unchanged at 1.3 billion inhabitants, but the
population of the less developed regions is projected to rise from 5.7 billion in 2011 to 8 billion in 2050.
At the same time, the population of the least developed countries is projected more than to double, from
851 million inhabitants in 2011 to more than 1.7 billion in 2050. Consequently, by 2050, 85.9 per cent of
the world population is expected to live in the less developed regions, including 18.6 per cent in the least
developed countries, whereas only 14.1 per cent will live in the more developed regions.
According to the medium variant, the world population is projected to reach 10.1 billion persons by
2100, that is, 3.1 billion more than in 2011, but only 819 million more than in 2050. During the second
part of the 21st century, the growth of the world population will have occurred mainly in the less
developed regions. The population of the more developed regions will remain stable at 1.3 billion, but the
population of the less developed regions is projected to rise from 8 billion in 2050 to 8.8 billion in 2100.
The population growth in the less developed regions will indeed happen among the least developed
countries whose population is projected to increase by almost 964 million between 2050 and 2100. By
2100, almost 87 per cent of the world population is expected to live in the less developed regions,
including 27 per cent in the least developed countries. By 2100, the least developed countries as a group
would account for 31 per cent of the population living in the less developed regions, up from 15 per cent
in 2011 and 22 per cent in 2050.
The world population in 2050 would be substantially higher if the decline in fertility projected in the
medium variant fails to be realized. If fertility were to remain constant at current levels in all countries,
world population would increase significantly by 2050, reaching 10.9 billion. In the high variant, where
fertility is assumed to remain mostly half a child higher than in the medium variant, the world population
in 2050 would reach 10.6 billion persons. In the low variant, where fertility is projected to be half a child
lower than in the medium variant, world population would still grow, but only to reach 8.1 billion by
2050. According to the low variant, the population of the least developed countries would nearly double,
to reach 1.5 billion by 2050, but the population of the more developed regions would decline to 1.16
billion.
Most of the world population lives in a few countries. In 2011, 37 per cent of the world population
lived in China and India. A further eight countries accounted for a further 22 per cent of the earths
inhabitants, namely, the United States of America, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, the
Russian Federation and Japan, in order of population size (tables S.1 and S.3). However, most of the
countries of the world have small populations. Thus, 73 per cent of the 229 countries or areas covered by
the 2010 Revision had populations with fewer than 20 million inhabitants in 2011 and, as a group, they
account for 10 per cent of the worlds population.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE I.1. POPULATION OF THE WORLD, MAJOR DEVELOPMENT GROUPS AND MAJOR AREAS, 1950, 1975, 2011, 2050 AND 2100, ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT VARIANTS

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Major area
World.................................................

Population (millions)
1950
1980
2011
2 532
4 453
6 974

Population in 2050 (millions)


Low Medium
High Constant
8 112
9 306
10 614
10 943

Population in 2100 (millions)


Low Medium
High Constant
6 177
10 125
15 805
26 844

More developed regions ....................


Less developed regions......................
Least developed countries..............
Other less developed countries ......

811
1 721
196
1 525

1 081
3 372
394
2 978

1 240
5 734
851
4 883

1 158
6 955
1 517
5 437

1 312
7 994
1 726
6 268

1 478
9 136
1 952
7 184

1 252
9 691
2 434
7 257

830
5 347
1 772
3 576

1 335
8 790
2 691
6 100

2 037
13 768
3 954
9 813

1 090
25 754
12 430
13 325

Africa.................................................
Asia ...................................................
Europe ...............................................
Latin America and the Caribbean ......
Northern America..............................
Oceania..............................................

230
1 403
547
167
172
13

483
2 638
693
362
254
23

1 046
4 207
739
597
348
37

1 932
4 458
632
646
396
49

2 192
5 142
719
751
447
55

2 470
5 898
814
869
501
62

2 997
5 908
672
863
444
60

2 378
2 624
405
385
342
42

3 574
4 596
675
688
526
66

5 198
7 522
1 056
1 154
777
98

14 959
9 530
482
1 252
512
110

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United
Nations.

TABLE I.2. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD POPULATION BY DEVELOPMENT GROUP AND MAJOR AREA,
ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT VARIANTS, 1950-2100
Major area
More developed regions .........................
Less developed regions...........................
Least developed countries...................
Other less developed countries ...........
Africa......................................................
Asia.........................................................
Europe ....................................................
Latin America and the Caribbean ...........
Northern America ...................................
Oceania...................................................

1950

1980

2011

32.0
68.0
7.7
60.2

24.3
75.7
8.8
66.9

17.8
82.2
12.2
70.0

Low
14.3
85.7
18.7
67.0

9.1
55.4
21.6
6.6
6.8
0.5

10.8
59.2
15.6
8.1
5.7
0.5

15.0
60.3
10.6
8.6
5.0
0.5

23.8
54.9
7.8
8.0
4.9
0.6

2050
Medium High
14.1
13.9
85.9
86.1
18.6
18.4
67.4
67.7
23.6
55.3
7.7
8.1
4.8
0.6

23.3
55.6
7.7
8.2
4.7
0.6

Constant
11.4
88.6
22.2
66.3

Low
13.4
86.6
28.7
57.9

27.4
54.0
6.1
7.9
4.1
0.5

38.5
42.5
6.6
6.2
5.5
0.7

2100
Medium High
13.2
12.9
86.8
87.1
26.6
25.0
60.2
62.1
35.3
45.4
6.7
6.8
5.2
0.7

32.9
47.6
6.7
7.3
4.9
0.6

Constant
4.1
95.9
46.3
49.6
55.7
35.5
1.8
4.7
1.9
0.4

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
New York: United Nations.

By 2021, the population of India is projected to surpass that of China and the two will account then
for about 36.1 per cent of the world population. By 2050, five least developed countriesBangladesh, the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania and Ugandawill be
among the twenty most populous countries in the world. By 2100, among the twenty most populous
countries in the world, nine will be least developed countriesthe United Republic of Tanzania, the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Zambia, Niger, Malawi and Sudan
(tables S.2 and S.3).
Increments in the world population are also largely concentrated in a few countries, generally the
most populous. Thus, during 2011-2050, eight countriesIndia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic
of Tanzania, the United States, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Philippines, in order of
population incrementare expected to account for half of the projected population increase at the world
level (table S.5).
Over most of human history, the world population grew very slowly if at all. Growth rates began
increasing slowly during the 17th or 18th centuries as mortality started to decline. With accelerating gains
in longevity, the growth rate of the world population increased, especially during the 20th century, when it
reached a peak at 2 per cent per year in 1965-1970 (figure 2). Since then, the speed of population growth
has been decelerating, largely as a result of falling fertility in the developing world. By 2005-2010, the
population growth rate at the world level had reached 1.16 per cent per year and is projected to decline to
0.44 per cent per year by 2045-2050 and 0.06 by 2095-2100 (table S.7).
However, because fertility decline has not occurred simultaneously in all countries, the pace of
population growth still differs considerably among development groups. Thus, whereas today the
population of the more developed regions is rising at an annual rate of 0.41 per cent, that of the less
developed regions is increasing almost four times as fast, at 1.33 per cent annually, and the least
developed countries as a group are experiencing even more rapid population growth, at 2.21 per cent per
year. Such differences are expected to persist until 2050 (table I.3). By that time, according to the medium
variant, the population of the more developed regions will be nearly stagnating, whereas the population of
the less developed regions will still be rising at an annual rate of 0.50 per cent per year. More importantly,
the population of the least developed countries will likely be increasing at a robust annual rate of 1.42 per
cent in 2045-2050, a rate that, if maintained, would lead to a doubling of the population every 49 years
(figure 2). During the second half of the 21st century, the population of the less developed regions will
reach a very low annual rate of population growth, similar to that of the more developed regions. Yet, the
population growth rate of the least developed countries, albeit declining, will still amount to 0.53 per cent
per year in 2095-2100, a rate that would produce a doubling of the population every 131 years.
B. POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION
The primary demographic consequence of fertility decline, especially if combined with increases in
life expectancy, is population ageing, a process whereby the proportion of older persons in the population
increases and that of younger persons declines. In 1950, just 8 per cent of the world population was aged
60 years or over. By 2011 that proportion had risen to 11.2 per cent and it is expected to reach 22 per cent
in 2050 (table I.6). Globally, the number of older persons (aged 60 years or over) will increase by a factor
of 2.6, passing from 784 million in 2011 to more than 2 billion in 2050. In contrast, the number of
children (persons under age 15) is projected to decline over the next 40 years, passing from 1.85 billion in
2011 to 1.91 billion in 2050 and their share of the total population will drop from 26.6 per cent in 2011 to
20 per cent in 2050. During the second half of the 21st century, the number of older persons (aged 60
years or over) will increase by a further 600 million, to reach 2.8 billion in 2100, and the number of
children will decrease by 200 million, to reach 1.8 billion in 2100.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Figure 1. Average annual rate of population change for the world and the
major development groups, 1950-2100 (medium variant)

Average annual rate of change (percentage)

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

World
Less developed regions

Period

More developed regions


Least developed countries

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
(2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

Increases in the median age, the age at which half the population is older and half is younger than
that age, are indicative of population ageing (table I.4). In 2011, 22 countries, all of them developed
countries except for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, had a median age higher than
40 years. Japan led the group with a median age of 45.0 years, followed closely by Germany, with median
age of 44.7 years, and Italy, with median age of 43.5 years (tables S.10 and S.11). In contrast, the median
ages of Niger and Uganda in 2011 were below 16 years, making their populations the youngest on the
planet.
By 2050, 100 countries are expected to have a median age above 40 years, 56 of which are located
in the developing world. That is, population ageing, which is already pervasive in developed countries, is
expected to be common in the developing world of the future and is projected to occur more rapidly in
developing countries than it did in their developed counterparts. In 2100, it is anticipated that 158
countries will have a median age above 40 years, more than two thirds of which will be located in the
developing world.
Despite the general trend toward population ageing, countries that still have relatively high fertility
will have a younger population than the rest in 2050 (table I.6). Most least developed countries are in this
group. In 2050, nine least developed countries are projected to have the youngest populations on Earth,
with median ages below 24 years. They are: Zambia, Malawi, Niger, Somalia, the United Republic of
Tanzania, Uganda, Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Chad, in increasing order according to the value of
their respective median ages (table S.10). Because the least developed countries are expected to continue
having some of the highest fertility levels on Earth after 2050, their populations will remain among the
youngest in 2100. By that date, the median ages of the populations of Zambia, Somalia, Malawi, Niger,
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE I.3. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE OF THE POPULATION OF THE WORLD AND MAJOR AREAS, 1950-1980, 1980-2011, 2011-2050 AND 2050-2100 FOR DIFFERENT
VARIANTS (PERCENTAGE)
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

2011-2050
1950-2011

Major area

1950-1980

1980-2011

Low

Medium

High

2050-2100
Constant

Low

Medium

High

Constant

World....................................................

1.66

1.88

1.45

0.38

0.72

1.05

1.12

-0.54

0.17

0.80

1.79

More developed regions........................


Less developed regions.........................
Least developed countries.................
Other less developed countries .........

0.70
1.97
2.41
1.91

0.96
2.24
2.32
2.23

0.44
1.71
2.49
1.59

-0.17
0.49
1.45
0.27

0.14
0.83
1.77
0.62

0.44
1.16
2.07
0.96

0.02
1.31
2.62
0.99

-0.67
-0.53
0.31
-0.84

0.03
0.19
0.89
-0.05

0.64
0.82
1.41
0.62

-0.28
1.95
3.26
1.22

Africa....................................................
Asia.......................................................
Europe ..................................................
Latin America and the Caribbean .........
Northern America .................................
Oceania .................................................

2.48
1.80
0.49
2.08
1.16
1.76

2.47
2.10
0.79
2.57
1.31
1.98

2.49
1.51
0.21
1.61
1.01
1.55

1.54
0.15
-0.39
0.20
0.33
0.68

1.85
0.50
-0.07
0.58
0.63
0.99

2.15
0.84
0.24
0.94
0.91
1.28

2.63
0.85
-0.24
0.92
0.61
1.19

0.42
-1.06
-0.89
-1.03
-0.29
-0.28

0.98
-0.22
-0.13
-0.18
0.33
0.35

1.49
0.49
0.52
0.57
0.88
0.91

3.22
0.96
-0.66
0.75
0.28
1.22

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York:
United Nations.

TABLE I.4. MEDIAN AGE IN YEARS FOR THE WORLD AND MAJOR AREAS, 1950, 1980, 2011, 2050 AND 2100 ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT VARIANTS
Median age (years)
Major area

Median age in 2050

Median age in 2100

1950

1980

2011

Low

Medium

High

Constant

Low

Medium

High

Constant

World................................................... 23.9

23.1

29.4

42.2

37.9

33.6

32.5

49.7

41.9

35.5

25.1

More developed regions ......................


Less developed regions........................
Least developed countries................
Other less developed countries ........

29.0
21.5
19.3
21.8

32.0
20.2
17.5
20.5

39.9
27.2
19.9
28.5

49.4
41.0
30.6
43.8

44.3
36.8
27.8
39.3

39.2
32.7
25.2
34.7

46.2
30.7
20.4
34.2

53.3
49.1
42.6
52.4

44.4
41.5
36.6
43.7

37.5
35.2
31.6
36.6

48.6
24.1
18.2
29.5

Africa...................................................
Asia......................................................
Europe .................................................
Latin America and the Caribbean ........
Northern America ................................
Oceania................................................

19.2
22.1
29.7
20.1
29.8
28.0

17.5
21.2
32.7
20.1
30.0
26.6

19.8
29.5
40.3
27.9
37.3
32.9

29.1
45.7
51.1
46.1
45.0
42.4

26.4
41.0
45.7
41.0
40.4
37.9

24.1
36.1
40.3
35.7
35.9
33.8

19.9
35.9
48.6
35.8
40.6
35.1

41.7
54.8
53.8
57.6
51.8
51.6

35.9
45.3
44.7
46.6
43.5
43.3

31.0
37.7
37.5
37.8
36.9
36.8

18.4
31.7
52.1
35.4
44.1
32.1

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects:
The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Refers only to countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2011.

the United Republic of Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria and Mali will be the lowest on
Earth, all being below 35 years.
The more developed regions have been leading the process of population ageing and their
experience provides a point of comparison for the expected ageing of the population of the less developed
regions. In 1950, the number of children (persons under age 15) in the more developed world was more
than twice the number of older persons (those aged 60 years or over), with children accounting for 27.3
per cent of the total population and the elderly for only 11.7 per cent. By 2011, the proportion of older
persons in the more developed regions had surpassed that of children (22.1 per cent versus 16.5 per cent)
and in 2050, the proportion of older persons is expected to be about double that of children (31.9 per cent
versus 16.3 per cent). In 2050, the number of older persons in more developed regions is projected to be
more than four times their number in 1950 (418 million versus 95 million) while the number of children
is projected to decline slightly from 222 million in 1950 to 218 million in 2050. Because the fertility of
the more developed regions is projected to increase, albeit slowly, over most of the projection period,
population ageing will slow down. As a result, between 2050 and 2100 the number of older persons in the
more developed regions is expected to increase by only 15 million, to reach 433 million and the number
of children under age 15 is also expected to increase, gaining 8 million, to reach 226 million (table I.6).
Until 2011, population ageing had been considerably slower in the less developed regions where
fertility has been still relatively high. The proportion of children declined from 37.6 per cent in 1950 to
28.8 per cent in 2011, while the proportion of older persons increased from 6.3 per cent to 8.9 per cent.
However, a period of more rapid population ageing lies ahead for the less developed regions. By 2050,
their proportion of older persons is projected to reach 20.2 per cent, whereas their proportion of children
is projected to decline to 21.1 per cent. After 2050, population ageing in the less developed regions will
continue but at a slower pace. By 2100, the proportion of older persons is projected to increase to 27.3 per
cent and the proportion of children is projected to decline to 18.1 per cent (table I.5).
Trends in the number of persons of working age (those aged 15 to 59 years) are particularly
important for all countries. The proportion of the population in those ages is an important factor related to
the potential for economic growth. In the more developed regions, the proportion of the population of
working age decreased from 60.9 per cent in 1950 to 59.4 per cent in 1970 and then increased steadily to
reach 63.0 per cent in 2005. Since then, that proportion has been declining. Its value is projected to drop
from 61.4 per cent in 2011 to 51.5 in 2050 and then to fluctuate between a high of 51.9 in 2065 and a low
of 50.6 in 2100 (table I.6). That is, the major change in the proportion of the population of working ages
in the more developed regions will occur over the next 40 years if, as projected in the medium variant, the
fertility of the more developed regions rises slowly toward replacement level for the rest of the century.
In the less developed regions, the proportion of the population of working age is expected to decline
slightly, passing from 62.4 per cent in 2011 to 58.7 per cent in 2050 and 54.6 per cent in 2100. However,
among the least developed countries, that proportion will rise from 54.9 per cent in 2011 to 60.3 per cent
in 2050 and decline thereafter to 58.1 per cent in 2100, an increase that represents both an opportunity and
a challenge: an opportunity to spur economic growth provided that the challenge of creating gainful
employment for the growing numbers of persons of working age is met.
Among the older population, the number and proportion of the oldest-old, that is, persons aged 80
years or over, is rising. In 2011, there were 109 million oldest-old persons in the world, corresponding to
1.6 per cent of the world population (table I.6). By 2050, this segment of the population is projected to
reach 402 million or 4.3 per cent of the world population and by 2100 it would ascend to 792 million or
7.8 per cent of the population. The group of oldest-old is the fastest growing segment of the world
population. Particularly rapid increases in this group are expected in the less developed regions, where the

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE I.5. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AND THE POPULATION IN BROAD AGE GROUPS,
BY MAJOR AREA, 2011-2050 AND 2050-2100 (MEDIUM VARIANT)
2011-2050
Major area
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Least developed countries
Other less developed countries

2050-2100

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Total
population

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Total
population

0.08

0.55

2.44

3.35

0.74

-0.10

0.04

0.66

1.35

0.17

0.16
0.07
1.02
-0.25

-0.31
0.70
2.05
0.41

1.08
2.95
3.57
2.89

2.07
4.20
4.20
4.20

0.14
0.85
1.81
0.64

0.07
-0.12
0.23
-0.29

0.00
0.05
0.81
-0.24

0.07
0.79
2.26
0.50

0.51
1.63
3.55
1.39

0.03
0.19
0.89
-0.05

Africa
1.20
2.13
3.37
4.08
1.90
0.26
0.95
2.40
3.60
0.98
Asia
-0.46
0.26
2.74
3.97
0.51
-0.42
-0.44
0.32
1.23
-0.22
Europe
-0.01
-0.61
1.00
1.92
-0.07
-0.02
-0.12
-0.19
0.33
-0.13
Latin America and the Caribbean
-0.61
0.40
2.89
3.94
0.59
-0.38
-0.46
0.46
1.36
-0.18
Northern America
0.49
0.34
1.56
2.54
0.64
0.20
0.20
0.63
0.97
0.33
Oceania
0.61
0.81
2.09
3.02
1.02
0.00
0.22
0.86
1.34
0.35
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
New York: United Nations.

8
TABLE I.6. DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OF THE WORLD AND MAJOR AREAS BY BROAD AGE GROUPS, 2011, 2050 AND 2100 (MEDIUM VARIANT)
Population in 2011 (millions)
Major area
World
More developed regions
Less developed regions
Least developed countries
Other less developed countries
Africa

Population in 2050 (millions)

Population in 2100 (millions)

0-14

15-24

25-59

60+

80+

Total

0-14

15-24

25-59

60+

80+

Total

0-14

15-24

25-59

60+

80+

Total

1 852

1 213

3 125

784

109

6 974

1 908

1 252

4 115

2 031

402

9 306

1 814

1 225

4 255

2 831

792

10 125

205

156

606

274

54

1 240

218

144

531

418

122

1 312

226

151

525

433

158

1 335

1 647

1 058

2 519

510

54

5 734

1 690

1 108

3 584

1 613

280

7 994

1 588

1 074

3 730

2 398

635

8 790

339

172

295

45

851

504

300

740

182

19

1 726

565

373

1 191

562

110

2 691

1 308

885

2 224

465

51

4 883

1 185

808

2 843

1 431

262

6 268

1 023

700

2 539

1 836

525

6 100

420

209

359

58

1 046

671

391

914

215

22

2 192

763

505

1 590

716

136

3 574

1 077

753

1 949

430

49

4 207

899

631

2 359

1 253

232

5 142

728

502

1 892

1 473

430

4 596

Europe

114

91

370

164

32

739

114

75

289

242

67

719

113

76

266

219

79

675

Latin America and the Caribbean

164

107

265

61

597

129

92

342

188

41

751

107

73

271

236

82

688

68

48

165

66

13

348

83

55

188

121

36

447

92

61

209

166

58

526

17

37

11

24

13

55

11

27

20

66

Asia

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Northern America
Oceania

Percentage distribution by age group


World

27

17

45

11

100

20

13

44

22

100

19

13

46

30

109

More developed regions

17

13

49

22

100

17

11

41

32

100

17

12

40

33

12

102

Less developed regions

29

18

44

100

21

14

45

20

100

20

13

47

30

110

Least developed countries

40

20

35

100

29

17

43

11

100

33

22

69

33

156

Other less developed countries

27

18

46

10

100

19

13

45

23

100

16

11

41

29

97

Africa

40

20

34

100

31

18

42

10

100

35

23

73

33

163

Asia

26

18

46

10

100

17

12

46

24

100

14

10

37

29

89

Europe

15

12

50

22

100

16

10

40

34

100

16

11

37

31

11

94

Latin America and the Caribbean

27

18

44

10

100

17

12

45

25

100

14

10

36

31

11

92

Northern America

20

14

48

19

100

19

12

42

27

100

21

14

47

37

13

118

Oceania

24

15

45

15

100

20

13

43

24

100

20

14

49

36

12

119

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

oldest-old are projected to increase from 56 million in 2011 to 280 million in 2050 and to 635 million
in 2100, implying an average annual rate of increase of 4.2 per cent during 2011-2050 and of 1.6 per
cent per year during 2050-2100 (table I.5). Over half of the oldest-old already live in the less
developed regions but they are expected to become increasingly concentrated in developing countries.
Thus, in 2050, 70 per cent of all persons aged 80 or over are expected to live in developing countries
and by 2100 80 per cent are expected to do so.
In 2011, 71 countries had populations where persons aged 80 years or older accounted for more
than 1.58 per cent of the population (the proportion of oldest-old in the world). The oldest-old
accounted for over 6.6 per cent of the population of Japan and for more than 5.0 per cent of the
populations of Italy, France, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Spain and Greece, ordered according to the
proportion of oldest-old (table S.9). By 2050, 97 countries are expected to have populations where
persons aged 80 or over account for more than 4.32 per cent of the population (the proportion of the
oldest-old at the global level in 2050). In Japan, Germany and 19 other countries the oldest-old are
projected to account for over 10 per cent of the population. In 2100, the proportion of the oldest-old is
projected to exceed 7.83 per cent (their share of the world population) in 130 countries and in 108 of
them, the proportion of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to exceed 10 per cent.
Just as the overall population, the oldest-old tend to be concentrated in the most populous
countries. In 2011, 19.4 million lived in China, 12 million in the United States and 8.7 million in
India. In 2050, those countries will still have the largest numbers of persons aged 80 years or over:
98.3 million in China, 44.2 million in India and 31.7 million in the United States. By 2100, India is
projected to have 130 million persons of aged 80 or over, China 107 million and the United States 52
million.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

II. FERTILITY
According to the 2010 Revision, total fertilitythat is, the average number of children a woman
would bear if fertility rates remained unchanged during her lifetimeis 2.52 children per woman in 20052010 at the world level (table II.1). This average masks the heterogeneity of fertility levels among
countries and regions (figure 2). In 2005-2010, 75 countries or areas (44 of them located in the more
developed regions) have fertility levels below 2.1 children per woman, that is, below replacement level1,
whereas 121 countries or areas (all of which are located in the less developed regions) have total fertility
levels at or above 2.1 children per woman. Among these 121 countries, 26 have total fertility levels at or
above 5 children per woman, 25 of which are least developed countries (table II.2).
TABLE II.1. ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED TOTAL FERTILITY FOR THE WORLD, MAJOR DEVELOPMENT GROUPS AND MAJOR
1970-1975, 1990-1995, 2005-2010, 2045-2050 AND 2095-2100 ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT VARIANTS*

AREAS,

Total fertility (average number of children per woman)


2045-2050
1970- 1990- 20051975 1995 2010

Low

2095-2100
Low

Medium

High

Constant

World................................................ 4.45

3.04

2.52

1.71

Medium High Constant


2.17

2.64

3.22

1.55

2.03

2.51

4.44

More developed regions....................


Less developed regions.....................
Least developed countries ............
Other less developed countries .....

2.16

1.66

1.66

1.47

1.97

2.46

1.74

1.57

2.07

2.57

1.84

5.37

3.39

2.67

1.73

2.19

2.66

3.38

1.55

2.02

2.51

4.53

6.71

5.74

4.41

2.29

2.76

3.23

5.03

1.66

2.13

2.61

5.61

5.19

3.09

2.41

1.53

2.00

2.49

2.83

1.48

1.97

2.46

3.55

Africa................................................
Asia...................................................
Europe...............................................
Latin America and the Caribbean .....
Northern America .............................
Oceania .............................................

6.67

5.62

4.64

2.42

2.89

3.37

5.07

1.65

2.13

2.62

5.48

5.00

2.97

2.28

1.39

1.88

2.37

2.64

1.43

1.93

2.43

3.31

2.17

1.57

1.53

1.41

1.91

2.41

1.55

1.56

2.06

2.56

1.61

5.02

3.02

2.30

1.29

1.79

2.28

2.44

1.43

1.93

2.43

2.71

2.05

1.96

2.03

1.57

2.07

2.57

2.04

1.59

2.09

2.59

2.05

3.30 2.49 2.49


1.72
2.21 2.71
2.80
1.52
2.02 2.52
3.39
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
*

NOTE: Refers only to countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010.

The 75 countries where total fertility is below replacement level in 2005-2010 account for 47.5 per
cent of the world population or approximately 3.2 billion people. Countries with fertility at or above
replacement level account for 3.5 billion people or 52.5 per cent of the world population.
Within the next decades, the number of countries with below-replacement fertility is expected to
almost double to reach 132 in 2045-2050. This means that by mid-century 7 billion people or 76.7 per
cent of the world population will be living in these countries. Under this medium fertility variant, it is
assumed that 182 countries will reach below-replacement fertility by 2095-2100, and nearly 83 per cent of
the world population will be living in a country where the average number of children per woman will be
below 2.1.
These results differ substantially from previous revisions of the World Population Prospects
because the new 2010 assumptions and the new projection model used take into greater account the
unique fertility decline experience of each country and better use the experience of all other countries to
inform future potential fertility trajectories. This means that, based on the very fast decline experienced in
many countries, the future fertility decline in these countries is projected to happen faster and continue
1

Replacement-level fertility is the level that needs to be sustained over the long run to ensure that a population replaces
itself. For most countries having low or moderate mortality levels, replacement level is close to 2.1 children per woman.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

11

further below replacement level than assumed in previous revisions because of the uncertainty about the
level fertility will continue to decline before it starts to recover toward replacement level. While the
fertility transition from high to low fertility is assumed to apply universally, its timing and especially the
pace at which it occurs varies between countries, and for a small number of countries currently with high
fertility (i.e., 5 children or more on average per woman) the projected declines are likely to occur at much
slower pace than the average experience of all other countries as it was assumed in previous revisions.
Ultimately by mid-century, only about a dozen of countries out of 68 currently are expected to still have
above or equal to 3 children per woman on average. By 2045-2050, only 10 per cent of the world
population is expected to live in such country compared to 18 per cent currently (table S.12).
Since, 1974, when the first World Population Conference was held in Bucharest, Romania, fertility
has declined by more than 20 per cent in 135 developing countries and by over 50 per cent in 66 of them.
The fastest fertility reductions, among countries with fertility levels greater or equal to 4 children per
woman in 1975-1980, occurred in countries in Asia, including Maldives, the Islamic Republic of Iran,
Oman, Viet Nam, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Mongolia, Bhutan, Qatar. Fertility also declined
rapidly in Algeria, Tunisia, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in Northern Africa, Cape Verde in Sub-Saharan
Africa, in Saint Lucia in Latin America, and Albania in Europe (table S.13). The average number of
children in countries which have experienced over 50 per cent decline since 1970-1975 is currently below
2.31 children per woman on average instead of 5.76 children per woman thirty-five years ago.
Although most developing countries are already far advanced in the transition from high to low
fertility, ten countries still have fertility levels of 6 children per woman or higher in 2005-2010 and in
Niger total fertility is greater than 7 children per woman (table II.2 and table S.12), and the fertility in
these country has decreased at most by about one child within the last 30 years (table S.13). Based on the
experience of other countries with similar levels of fertility in the past, the fertility of those ten countries
is projected to decline after 2010, at a pace of about one child per decade after 2020, and none is expected
to reach 2.1 children per woman by 2045-2050 in the medium variant. As a result, their average fertility is
expected to be around 3.5 children per woman and their population is expected nearly to triple, passing
from 197 million in 2008 to 542 million in 2048, and could reach over 1.09 billion in 2098.
These ten countries are least developed countriesAfghanistan, Chad, the Democratic Republic of
the Congo, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Timor-Leste, Uganda, Zambia and several are highly
affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Moreover, a number of them have been experiencing civil strife and
political instability in recent years, factors that militate against the provision of basic services for the
population. The continuation of rapid population growth poses serious challenges to their future
development.
Despite the important contribution to population growth of high-fertility countries (those with a total
fertility above 6 children per woman), these ten countries account today for less than 3 per cent of the
world population and are expected to constitute respectively 6 and 11 per cent of the world population by
2048 and 2098, according to the medium variant. Countries with total fertility ranging from 4 to 6
children per woman account today for 10 per cent of the world population, but will account for less than 2
per cent by 2048 (table II.2) because their fertility is expected to continue to decline from about 5 children
per woman on average currently to 2.7 children per woman on average by 2045-2050, and to reach 2.1
children per woman by 2075-2080.
In 2008, the majority of people in the developing world live in the 58 countries with total fertility ranging
from 2.1 to 4 children per woman, which account for 45 per cent of the world population. Most of those
countries are projected to have a total fertility below replacement level by 2040-2045 or even earlier,
according to the medium variant. Overall, 136 countries or areas are projected to have below-replacement

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE II.2. DISTRIBUTION OF THE WORLD POPULATION AS WELL AS COUNTRIES AND AREAS ACCORDING TO
*
THE LEVEL OF TOTAL FERTILITY IN SELECTED PERIODS (MEDIUM VARIANT)
World population (1 January)

Range of total fertility

Greater or equal to 7 ...........................


Between 6 and less than 7...................
Between 5 and less than 6...................
Between 4 and less than 5...................
Between 3 and less than 4...................
Between 2.1 and less than 3................
Between 1.85 and less than 2.1...........
Between 1.60 and less than 1.85 .........
Between 1.40 and less than 1.60 .........
Between 1.20 and less than 1.40 .........
Less than 1.2 .......................................
Total population (millions) .................

1953

1973

1993

2008

2028

2048

2098

116

193

118

14

1 088

517

295

183

548
35
273
581
10

977
1 059
107
456
492
84

309
295
1 467
553
1 600
334
353
195

321
321
373
2 305
801
1 616
258
474
34

92
537
617
2 291
1 052
1 813
1 651
111

167
711
1 268
3 513
3 330
220

1 729
7 863
518

2 652

3 886

5 519

6 699

8 164

9 208

10 110

1953

1973

1993

2008

2028

2048

2098

4.4

5.0

2.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

41.0

13.3

5.4

2.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

20.7

25.1

5.6

4.8

1.1

0.0

0.0

1.3
10.3
21.9
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0

27.3
2.7
11.7
12.7
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0

5.3
26.6
10.0
29.0
6.1
6.4
3.5
0.0
100.0

4.8
5.6
34.4
12.0
24.1
3.8
7.1
0.5
100.0

6.6
7.6
28.1
12.9
22.2
20.2
1.4
0.0
100.0

1.8
7.7
13.8
38.2
36.2
2.4
0.0
0.0
100.0

0.0
0.0
17.1
77.8
5.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.0

Percentage of the world population (1 January)

Greater or equal to 7 ...........................


Between 6 and less than 7...................
Between 5 and less than 6...................
Between 4 and less than 5...................
Between 3 and less than 4...................
Between 2.1 and less than 3................
Between 1.85 and less than 2.1 ...........
Between 1.60 and less than 1.85 .........
Between 1.40 and less than 1.60 .........
Between 1.20 and less than 1.40 .........
Less than 1.2 .......................................
Total of the world population .............

Number of countries
1950-1955

Greater or equal to 7 ...........................


Between 6 and less than 7...................
Between 5 and less than 6...................
Between 4 and less than 5...................
Between 3 and less than 4...................
Between 2.1 and less than 3................
Between 1.85 and less than 2.1 ...........
Between 1.60 and less than 1.85 .........
Between 1.40 and less than 1.60 .........
Between 1.20 and less than 1.40 .........
Less than 1.2 .......................................
Total number of countries...................

1970-1975

1990-1995

2005-2010

2025-2030

2045-2050

2095-2100

30

32

72

48

21

33
15
16
25
5

30
21
14
32
15
4

29
26
29
31
16
19
12
6

16
21
21
53
23
18
16
15
3

4
12
29
34
40
55
19
3

4
9
47
51
79
6

15
171
10

196

196

196

196

196

196

196

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World
Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
*
NOTE: Refers only to countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010.

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13

fertility in 2045-2050, with 85 having a total fertility equal to or lower than 1.85 children per woman. As
a result, according to the medium variant, 77 per cent of the world population is expected to live in
countries with below-replacement fertility in 2045-2050. This percentage is expected to increase up to 83
per cent by the end of the century, but by then 171 countries are assumed to have reached a subreplacement fertility level between 1.85 and 2.1 children per woman on average.
Fertility levels in developed countries, many of which experienced a baby-boom during the 1950s
and 1960s, have generally declined since the early 1970s to below-replacement level. In fact, in 19701975, 18 countries out of the 45 developed countries in the world already had below-replacement fertility.
By 2005-2010, almost all developed countries had reached fertility levels below 2.1 children per woman
(only New Zealand, Iceland and Ireland have fertility levels equal or just above 2.1). Among them, 14 had
reached historically unprecedented low fertility levels (below 1.4 children per woman), with Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Slovakia, Poland, Japan, Malta and Romania exhibiting the lowest levels in the developed
world. But the lowest fertility levels (below 1.3 children per woman) are currently observed in China,
Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR as well as Singapore and the Republic of Korea (table S.12).
At the world level, the medium variant projects total fertility to be 2.17 children per woman in
2045-2050 (table II.1), with a convergence between countries which leads to 1.97 children per woman in
the more developed regions and 2.19 children per woman in the less developed regions. That is, although
the difference in total fertility between the more and the less developed regions narrows considerably by
mid-century, the less developed regions are still expected to have a higher total fertility than the more
developed regions, and some regions like Africa to have on average a fertility about one child higher than
in Asia or Latin America. That difference persists in all projection variants. Total fertility in the low
variant is expected to be 1.47 children per woman in the more developed regions and 1.73 children per
woman in the less developed regions. In the high variant, total fertility is projected to be 2.46 children per
woman in the more developed regions and 2.66 children per woman in the less developed regions.

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Figure 3. Total fertility trajectories for the world and the major development groups,
1950-2010 estimation and 2010-2100 projection (medium variant)
7.0

6.0

Total fertility (children per w oman)

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Period
World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Least developed countries

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

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15

III. MORTALITY AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS


A. TRENDS AND PROSPECTS IN WORLD MORTALITY
The twentieth century witnessed the most rapid decline in mortality in human history. In 1950-1955,
life expectancy at the world level was 48 years and it had reached 68 years by 2005-2010. Over the next
45 years, life expectancy at birth at the global level is expected to reach 76 years in 2045-2050 and 81
years in 2095-2100 (table III.1). The more developed regions already had a high expectation of life in
1950-1955 (66 years) and have since experienced further gains in longevity. By 2005-2010 their life
expectancy stood at 76.9 years, 11 years higher than in the less developed regions where the expectation
of life at birth was 65.9 years. Although the gap between the two groups is expected to narrow between
2005 and mid-century, in 2045-2050 the more developed regions are still expected to have considerably
higher life expectancy at birth than the less developed regions (82.7 years versus 74.4 years). Throughout
2010-2100, systematic progress against mortality is further expected to increase life expectancy at birth
up to 88.2 years in the more developed regions and 80.1 years in the less developed regions thereby
further reducing the gap in mortality between the two groups.

TABLE III.1. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH FOR THE WORLD, MAJOR DEVELOPMENT GROUPS
AND MAJOR AREAS, 2005-2010 AND 2045-2050
Major area

2005-2010

2045-2050

2095-2100

World..............................................................................
More developed regions..................................................
Less developed regions...................................................
Least developed countries ...........................................

67.9
76.9
65.9
56.9

75.6
82.7
74.4
69.1

81.1
88.2
80.1
77.5

Other less developed countries ....................................

67.9

75.8

81.1

Africa..............................................................................
Asia.................................................................................
Europe ............................................................................
Latin America and the Caribbean ...................................
Northern America ...........................................................
Oceania ...........................................................................

55.2
69.0
75.4
73.4
78.2
76.6

68.2
76.7
81.7
79.9
83.2
82.5

77.1
81.8
87.4
84.6
88.4
86.7

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

The 48 least developed countries, which include 26 of the countries that are highly affected by
HIV/AIDS, have been experiencing higher mortality than other development groups. Their life
expectancy at birth was 56.9 years in 2005-2010 and is expected to remain relatively low, reaching 69.1
years in 2045-2050. During 2050-2100, provided a continued decline in mortality rates from HIV/AIDS
as well as from other major causes of death, it is conceivable that life expectancy at birth will further
climb to reach 77.5 years in 2095-2100. This gain is the most important factor in reducing gap in life
expectancy between the more developed and the less developed groups of countries.
The general upward trend in life expectancy for the more developed and the less developed regions
(figure 4) conceals different trends among the worlds major areas (figure 5). In Asia, Latin America and
the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania, life expectancy has been increasing at a steady pace. In
contrast, Europe as a whole experienced a slowdown in the increase of life expectancy starting in the late
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

17

1960s and stagnating levels since the late 1980s. This trend is the result of severe reductions in life
expectancy in countries of Eastern Europe, particularly in the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. The
remaining regions of Europe have had increasing life expectancies which are currently equal to or higher
than that of Northern America.
Africa has the lowest life expectancy levels of any major area. Furthermore, life expectancy in
Africa has virtually stagnated since the late 1980s. While this trend is due in large part to the HIV/AIDS
epidemic, other factors have also played a role, including armed conflict, economic stagnation, and
resurgent infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria. The recent negative developments in many
countries of Africa represent major set backs in reducing mortality. Only in 2005-2010 is life expectancy
expected to begin rising again and, provided efforts to reduce the expansion of the HIV/AIDS epidemic
and to treat those affected by it succeed, it is expected to continue rising to reach 68 years in 2045-2050
and 77.1 in 2095-2100.
However, even if these gains materialize, by mid-century the population of Africa is still expected to
be subject to the highest mortality levels in the world, with its overall life expectancy being 8 years lower
than the next lowest one, that of Asia.
In nearly all countries of the world, female life expectancy at birth is higher than that of males. At
the world level, females have a life expectancy of 70 years in 2005-2010, compared to 66 years for males
(table III.2). The female advantage is considerably larger in the more developed regions (7 years) than in
the less developed regions (3.5 years). The gap between male and female life expectancy is particularly
narrow in the least developed countries (2 years). At the world level, a difference of 4.8 years between
female and male life expectancy is expected to persist until 2045-2050, but whereas the female to male
gap is life expectancy is expected to narrow in the more developed regions, it is expected to widen in the
less developed regions. By 2095-2100, the gap between male and female life expectancy is expected to
narrow on the world level and in all regions expect the least developed countries where it is expected to
stabilize since 2045-2050 at about 4 years.
Under-five mortality, expressed as the probability of dying between birth and the exact age of five,
is an important indicator of development and the well-being of children. In 1950-1955, 20 per cent (203
deaths per 1,000 births) of all children born worldwide did not reach their fifth birthday. By 2005-2010,
this rate had fallen to 66 deaths per 1,000 births (table S.18). Although child mortality has fallen in all
major areas, sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind in achieving lower levels of child mortality (figure 6).
In the 1950s, sub-Saharan Africa and South-Central Asia had similarly high levels of child mortality and
both experienced significant reductions until the 1980s but thereafter, the pace of decline in child
mortality in sub-Saharan Africa slowed down. As a result, by 2005-2010, under-five mortality had
reached 76 deaths per 1,000 births in South-Central Asia, but it was still a high 136 deaths per 1,000
births in sub-Saharan Africa.
B. THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF AIDS

More than thirty years into the HIV/AIDS epidemic, its effects on the populations of the highlyaffected countries is evident. In the 2010 Revision, the impact of HIV/AIDS is explicitly modelled for 48
countries, down from 58 in the 2008 Revision. In most of these countries, HIV prevalence reached 1 per
cent or higher in the period from 1980 to 2010 among the population aged 15-49 years. Four populous
countries with lower prevalence levels were also included because they have a large number of persons
living with HIV. They are China, India, Russian Federation, and the United States of America.

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Among the 48 highly affected countries, 37 are in Africa, three in Asia, six in Latin America and the
Caribbean, one in Europe and one in Northern America. Together they account for 28.9 million of the
33.3 million HIV-infected adults and children estimated to be alive in 2009 or 87 per cent of the world
total.
The dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic as reflected in the 2010 Revision are consistent with the
estimates of HIV prevalence in 2009 as reported by UNAIDS 1 for each country. Beginning in 2009, the
2010 Revision assumes that changes in behaviour, along with treatment, will reduce the chances of
infection. Rates of recruitment into high-risk groups are assumed to decline as well. In light of major
expansions in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, average survival of those infected is expected to
increase at a rate determined by projected levels of ART coverage and efficacy. However, because the
epidemic is still expanding, some countries are expected to experience increasing levels of HIV
prevalence over the medium-term future. Nevertheless, in nearly all highly affected countries, HIV
prevalence is projected to be lower in 2025 than in 2009 (table S.19).
In the 2010 Revision, the estimated and projected long-term impact of HIV/AIDS is somewhat less
severe than that projected in the 2008 Revision. Part of this reduction is due to the incorporation of
revised and lower estimates of HIV prevalence for several countries where nationally representative data
on the epidemic have become available. Another part stems from the assumption that antiretroviral
therapy will reach an ever increasing proportion of the persons who need it and that, as a result, those
persons will not only survive longer but will be less infectious. However, realization of these projections
is contingent on sustained commitment by Governments to assure treatment for those infected and to
promote preventive measures and behavioural changes among the uninfected.
The 2010 Revision confirms yet again the devastating toll AIDS has in terms of increased morbidity,
mortality and population loss. Life expectancy in the most affected countries already shows dramatic
declines. In Botswana, where HIV prevalence is estimated at 24.8 per cent in 2009 among the population
aged 15-49 years, life expectancy has fallen from 64 years in 1985-1990 to 49 years in 2000-2005. By
2005-2010, life expectancy is expected to increase again to 53 years as a result of declining HIV
prevalence and increased access to anti-retroviral therapy. In Southern Africa as a whole, where most of
the worst affected countries are, life expectancy has fallen from 61 to 51 years over the last 20 years.
While the impact in Southern Africa is particularly stark, the majority of highly affected countries in
Africa have experienced declines in life expectancy in recent years because of the epidemic.
In countries where HIV prevalence rates are lower, AIDS has mainly slowed down the increase in
life expectancy. To assess the impact of the disease on life expectancy in these countries, the medium
variant projections are compared with a hypothetical scenario in which AIDS does not exist. One can thus
conclude that in 2005-2010, for instance, life expectancy is expected to be lower than it would have been
in the absence of AIDS by 0.69 years in Eritrea, by 1.03 years in the Russian Federation, and 1.14 years
in Sierra Leone. A larger impact is yet to come in many countries, such as Gambia, where the impact of
AIDS on life expectancy relative to the No-AIDS scenario is projected to increase from 0.79 years in
2005-2010 to 1.21 years in 2010-2015. Similarly, in Equatorial Guinea, that difference is projected to rise
from 1.74 year in 2005-2010 to 2.33 years by 2010-2015.
The toll that HIV/AIDS is taking is already retarding progress in reducing child mortality. Thirtyfive per cent of children infected through mother-to-child transmission are estimated to die before their
first birthday, and 61 per cent die by age five if no treatment provided. The impact of HIV on child
mortality is particularly dramatic in countries that had achieved relatively low levels of child mortality
1

UNAIDS. (2010). Global report: UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2010. UNAIDS/10.11E | JC1958E.
Geneva. 2010. 362 p. - http://www.unaids.org/globalreport/Global_report.htm.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

19

before the epidemic began. In Zimbabwe, for instance, where under-five mortality was one of the lowest
in sub-Saharan Africa, it has risen from 84 child deaths per 1,000 births in 1985-1990 to 111 per 1,000 in
2000-2005 and is projected to decline to 71 per 1,000 in 2010-2015. In Swaziland, under-five mortality
has risen from 108 to 128 deaths per 1,000 births between 1985-1990 and 2000-2005, and is expected to
decline to 92 deaths per 1,000 in 2010-2015. The impact of HIV/AIDS on child mortality is projected to
decrease in the future with improved prevention of mother-to-child transmission and expanding coverage
for HIV/AIDS treatment.
AIDS reshapes the percentage distribution of deaths by age. In 1985-1990, deaths in Southern Africa
were concentrated among young children and older adults (figure 7), and adults aged 20 to 49 years
accounted for only 21 per cent of all deaths. By 2005-2010, a shift had taken place in the distribution of
deaths by age, with 50 per cent of all deaths occurring between the ages of 20 and 49. Such large
increases in mortality deplete the cohorts that are in the prime of their working and parental careers,
creating the potential for severe shocks to economic and societal structures.
AIDS-related mortality and its impact on the potential number of births are reshaping the age
structure of populations in the affected countries. Figure 8 shows the effect on the population of Southern
Africa in 2015 by comparing the age distribution resulting from the No-AIDS scenario with that projected
under the medium variant. The population aged 15 or over is 12 per cent smaller according the medium
variant than according to the No-AIDS scenario. The reduced size of cohorts under age 15 is partly due to
the deaths of large numbers of women during the reproductive ages and to the lower survival prospects of
infected children. Total population in Southern Africa in 2015 is projected to be 59.6 millions or 11 per
cent lower than according to the No-AIDS scenario.
Despite the effect of the epidemic on reducing population growth rates, the populations of affected
countries are generally expected to be larger by mid-century than today, mainly because most of them
maintain high to moderate fertility levels. In fact, owing to the downward revision of the prevalence of
HIV/AIDS combined with the expected expansion of access to anti-retroviral therapy and efforts to
control the further spread of HIV, all the countries with the highest prevalence in 2009 are expected to
experience positive population growth rates between 2005 and 2050.

TABLE III.2. LIFE EXPECTANCY BY SEX FOR THE WORLD AND MAJOR DEVELOPMENT GROUPS,
2005-2010, 2045-2050 AND 2095-2100
Life expectancy at birth (years)
2005-2010

2045-2050
Fema
Male
le

2095-2100

Major area

Male

Female

Male

Female

World ...................................................

65.7

70.1

73.2

78.0

79.0

83.3

More developed regions ........................


Less developed regions .........................
Least developed countries .................

73.4
64.2
55.9

80.4
67.8
57.9

79.9
72.2
67.1

85.6
76.7
71.2

85.6
78.0
75.4

90.9
82.3
79.6

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE III.3. DIFFERENCE IN PROJECTED POPULATION IN THE MEDIUM VARIANT VERSUS A NO-AIDS
SCENARIO FOR GROUPS OF AFFECTED COUNTRIES, 2010, 2015, 2050 AND 2100
Population difference
(thousands)
Group of countries

Percentage difference

2010

2015

2050

2100

2010

2015

2050

2100

All 48 affected countries................................. -41 911


37 countries in Africa ................................. -32 645
3 countries in Asia ...................................... -7 036
6 countries in Latin America
and the Caribbean........................................
-306

-55 253
-43 277
-9 295

-162 276
-139 958
-16 678

-288 679
-270 247
-14 394

-1.1
-4.2
-0.3

-1.3
-4.9
-0.3

-3.0
-7.6
-0.5

-4.6
-8.6
-0.6

-365

-642

-634

-2.0

-2.3

-3.3

-3.2

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World
Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations

Figure 4. Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major development groups, 1950-2100
100

Life expectancy at birth (years)

90

80

70

60

50

40

30
1950 1960

1970 1980

1990 2000

2010 2020

2030 2040

2050 2060

2070 2080

2090 2100

Period
World

More developed regions

Less developed regions

Least developed countries

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World
Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

21

Figure 5. Life expectancy at birth for the world and the major areas, 1950-2100
90

Life expectancy at birth (years)

80

70

60

50

40

30
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Period
World

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

Northern America

Oceania

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
(2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

Figure 6. Under-five mortality for the world and selected regions, 1950-2100

Deaths under age five per 1,000 live births

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Period
World

Sub-Saharan Africa

South-central Asia

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
(2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Figure 7. Percentage distribution of deaths by age, Southern Africa, 1985-1990 and 2005-2010s
40
35

Percentage of total deaths

30
25
20
15
10
5
0-4

5-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60+

Age groups

1985-1990

2005-2010

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

Figure 8. Population in 2015, with AIDS and without AIDS, by sex and age group, Southern Africa
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
3,500

2,500

1,500

500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

Population (thousands)
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

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23

IV. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION


Estimates of net migration between the major development groups show that since 1960 the more
developed regions have been net gainers of emigrants from the less developed regions (table IV.1).
Furthermore, net migration to the more developed regions has been increasing steadily from 1960 to
2010. During 2000-2010, the more developed regions were gaining annually 3.4 million migrants. About
39% of that net flow was directed to Northern America (1.33 million annually). During 2000-2010, the
level of net migration to the more developed regions as a whole changes moderately, reaching a peak of
3.4 million migrants annually. Over the rest of the projection period, net migration to the more developed
regions is projected to decline smoothly to about 1.9 million per year during 2040-2050, of which 1.1
million are directed to Northern America.
With respect to the other major areas, Asia was by far the major source of migrants during 20002010 (1.6 million annually), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (1.1 million annually) and then
Africa (0.6 million annually). Over the projection period, about half of all the net number of emigrants
from the less developed regions are expected to be from Asia, between 20 per cent to 30 per cent from
Latin America and the Caribbean, and the remaining from Africa.
At the country level, during 2000-2010, 32 of the 45 developed countries have been net receivers of
international migrants. This group includes traditional countries of immigration such as Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and the United States, most of the populous countries in Northern, Southern and
Western Europe as well as the Russian Federation and Japan. The movement of people from less
developed regions to more developed regions has dominated the world migration patterns for almost half
a century, but flows among developing countries have also been important. Several developing countries
or areas have been attracting migrants in large numbers, including, Israel, Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. Jordan and the Syrian Arab
Republic have been the primary receivers of refugees from Iraq. Many African countries have been the
destination of refugee flows from neighbouring countries.
During 2000-2010, the countries having the highest levels of net emigration included Bangladesh,
China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines. Pakistan also registered high levels of net
emigration, partly as a result of the repatriation of Afghani refugees.
International migration is the component of population change most difficult to measure and
estimate reliably. Thus, the quality and quantity of the data used in the estimation and projection of net
migration varies considerably by country. Furthermore, the movement of people across international
boundaries, which is very often a response to changing socio-economic, political and environmental
forces, is subject to a great deal of volatility. Refugee movements, for instance, may involve large
numbers of people moving across boundaries in a short time. For these reasons, projections of future
international migration levels are the least robust part of current population projections and reflect mainly
a continuation of recent levels and trends in net migration.

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25

26
TABLE IV.1. AVERAGE ANNUAL NET NUMBER OF MIGRANTS PER DECADE BY DEVELOPMENT GROUP AND MAJOR AREA, 1950-2050
(MEDIUM VARIANT)

Major area

More developed regions.....................


Less developed regions .....................
Least developed countries ...............
Other less developed countries .......
Africa ................................................
Asia ...................................................
Europe ...............................................
Latin America and the Caribbean .....
Northern America .............................
Oceania .............................................

19501960

19601970

19701980

Net number of migrants (thousands)


19801990200020101990
2000
2010
2020

20202030

20302040

20402050

-14

714

1220

1308

2572

3401

2454

2249

2071

1928

14

-714

-1220

-1308

-2572

-3401

-2454

-2249

-2071

-1928

-97

-153

-917

-930

-50

-891

-407

-491

-464

-444

111

-561

-302

-378

-2522

-2510

-2046

-1757

-1607

-1484

-132

-223

-335

-349

-410

-625

-496

-451

-439

-439

162

-2

-405

-285

-1321

-1603

-1202

-1189

-1099

-1001

-486

95

393

404

990

1836

1082

986

837

726

-53

-378

-418

-702

-778

-1122

-692

-546

-471

-427

418

398

710

831

1435

1333

1165

1091

1089

1084

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90
110
56
102
84
180
143
109
84
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The
2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

58

V. ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING THE 2010 REVISION


The preparation of each new revision of the official population estimates and projections of the
United Nations involves two distinct processes: (a) the incorporation of all new and relevant information
regarding the past demographic dynamics of the population of each country or area of the world; and (b)
the formulation of detailed assumptions about the future paths of fertility, mortality and international
migration. The data sources used and the methods applied in revising past estimates of demographic
indicators (i.e., those referring to 1950-2010) are presented online 1 and in an Excel file
(WPP2010_F02_METAINFO.XLS).
The future population of each country is projected starting with an estimated population for 1 July
2010. Because population data are not necessarily available for that date, the 2010 estimate is derived
from the most recent population data available for each country, obtained usually from a population
census or a population register, projected to 2010 using all available data on fertility, mortality and
international migration trends between the reference date of the population data available and 1 July 2010.
In cases where data on the components of population change relative to the past 5 or 10 years are not
available, estimated demographic trends are projections based on the most recent available data.
Population data from all sources are evaluated for completeness, accuracy and consistency, and adjusted
as necessary.
To project the population until 2100, the United Nations Population Division uses assumptions
regarding future trends in fertility, mortality and international migration. Because future trends cannot be
known with certainty, a number of projection variants are produced. The following paragraphs summarize
the main assumptions underlying the derivation of demographic indicators for the period starting in 2010
and ending in 2100.

A. FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS: CONVERGENCE TOWARD


TOTAL FERTILITY AROUND REPLACEMENT LEVEL
The fertility assumptions are described in terms of the following groups of countries:
High-fertility countries: Countries that until 2010 had no fertility reduction or only an incipient
decline;
Medium-fertility countries: Countries where fertility has been declining but whose estimated
level was still above 2.1 children per woman in 2005-2010;
Low-fertility countries: Countries with total fertility at or below 2.1 children per woman in
2005-2010.
1. Medium-fertility assumption
In the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects a new, probabilistic method for projecting
total fertility has been used. This new method was developed in collaboration with the Probabilistic
Projections Group of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) of the University of

Data sources and related meta-information for the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects are available for each
country from the following web page: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/data-sources.htm

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27

Washington 2 . The method is based on empirical fertility trends estimated for all countries of the world for
the period 1950 to 2010 3 .
There has been a general consensus that the evolution of fertility includes three broad phases (see
Figure 9): (i) a high-fertility pre-transition phase, (ii) the fertility transition itself and (iii) a low-fertility
post-transition phase during which fertility will probably fluctuate around and remain close to
replacement level (or converge towards it). These historic trends of fertility decline are re-estimated every
second year by the United Nations Population Division, using the most recent empirical evidence from
censuses, surveys, registers and other sources and after extensive re-evaluation of past historical trends in
the light of all the information available and internal consistency checks with intercensal cohorts.
In past revisions of the World Population Prospects it was assumed that countries in the transition
from high to low fertility will ultimately approach a fertility floor of 1.85 children per woman, regardless
of their current position in the fertility transition. The transition from the current level of fertility to the
fertility floor was expressed by three models of fertility change over time. These fertility projection
models have been formalized since the 2004 Revision using a double-logistic function, defined by six
deterministic parameters 4 . For countries that were below replacement level, a much simpler model of
fertility change was used. In general, it was assumed that fertility would recover from very low levels of
fertility, following a uniform pace that would also converge to the fertility floor of 1.85 children per
woman, just as in the high and medium fertility countries.
The new probabilistic method that was used in the 2010 Revision for projecting total fertility consists
of two separate processes:
The first process models the sequence of change from high to low fertility (phase II of the fertility
transition). For countries that are going through this fertility transition, the pace of the fertility decline is
decomposed into a systematic decline and random distortion terms. The pace of the systematic decline in
total fertility is modelled as a function of its level, based on the current UN methodology using a doublelogistic decline function. The parameters of the double-logistic function are estimated using a Bayesian
Hierarchical Model (BHM), which results in country-specific distributions for the parameters of the
decline. These distributions are informed by historical trends within the country, as well as the variability
in historical fertility trends of all countries that have already experienced a fertility decline. This approach
not only allows to better take into account the historical experience of each country, but also to reflect the
uncertainty about future fertility decline based the past experience of all other countries at similar level of
fertility. Under these conditions, the pace of decline and the limit up to which fertility will decline vary
for each projected trajectory. The model is hierarchical because in addition to the information available at
the country level, a second-level (i.e., the world's experience through the information of all the countries)
is used to inform the statistical distributions of the parameters of the double-logistic. Especially for
countries at the beginning of their fertility transition, limited information exists as to their speed of
decline and future trajectories, so the future potential trajectories (and speed of decline) are mostly
informed by the world's experience and the variability in trends experienced in other countries at similar
2

Alkema L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, G.K. Heilig (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the
Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography, vol. 48, number 3, pp. 815-839, doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 and
Working Paper of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, 2010, vol. 97. URL
http://www.csss.washington.edu/Papers/wp97.pdf
3
The initial version of this new approach was developed and tested using data from the 2008 revision, and the results were
presented to a panel of experts during an Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in Fertility: United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009). Expert Group Meeting on Recent and Future Trends in
Fertility. New York, 2-4 December 2009. http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/EGM-Fertility2009/egm-fertility2009.html
4
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Population Prospects. The
2004 Revision, Vol. III, Chapter VI. Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections, pp. 100-104.
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/WPP2004 Volume3.htm

28

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

fertility levels in the past. The Bayesian statistical approach itself is particularly adapted to estimate the
parameters of the double-logistic model even when the number of empirical observations for each country
is very limited (i.e., about 100 countries started their fertility transition since the 1960s and have nine or
fewer observations).
The second component of the projection model deals with countries once they have completed the
demographic transition, and reached Phase III and potentially sub-replacement fertility. A time series
model is used for projecting fertility, assuming that in the long term the total fertility will approach and
fluctuate around the replacement-level of 2.1 children per woman. The time series model uses the
empirical information from countries that have had documented fertility increases from a sub-replacement
level after a completed fertility transition. The assumption that fertility will converge toward and fluctuate
around replacement-level the long run is driven by the extension of the projection horizon from 2050 to
2100 between the 2008 and 2010 Revisions, and the underlying assumption of a population stabilization
within 3-4 generations. The long term assumption of a fertility recovery is supported by the experience of
many below-replacement fertility countries in Europe and East Asia 5 .
The two processes are schematically explained in Figure 9. During the observation period, the start of
Phase II is determined by examining the maximum total fertility (or more precisely, the most recent local
maximum within half a child of the global maximum to exclude random fluctuations in Phase I): the start
of Phase II is deemed to be before 1950 for countries where this maximum is less than 5.5, and at the
period of the local maximum for all other countries. The end of Phase II during the observation period is
defined as the midpoint of the first two increases below 2 (if observed, else a country is still in Phase II).

Figure 9. Schematic phases of the fertility transition


Phase I: Fertility is high and the
fertility transition has not yet
started. Not modeled.

9
8
7

Phase II. Fertility transition,


modelled by double-logistic
function using a Bayesian
Hierarchical Model (BHM).

Total Fertility

6
5
4

Phase III. Sub-replacement


recovery, modelled with a first
order auto-regressive time series
model (AR(1)).

3
2
1
0
Start Phase II

Phase I

Time

Phase II

Start Phase III

Phase III

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations

Goldstein, J.R., T. Sobotka, and A. Jasilioniene. (2009). The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility? Population and Development
Review, vol. 35, number 4, pp. 663-699. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00304.x
Caltabiano, M., M. Castiglioni, and A. Rossina. (2009). Lowest-low fertility: Signs of a recovery in Italy? Demographic
Research, vol. 21, pp. 681718. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.23
Myrskyla, M., H.- P. Kohler, and F. C. Billari. (2009). Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature, vol. 460, pp.
741743. doi: 10.1038/nature08230
Sobotka, T. (2011). Fertility in Central and Eastern Europe after 1989: Collapse and Gradual Recovery. Historical Social
Research-Historische Sozialforschung, vol. 36, number 2, pp. 246-296.

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29

To construct projections for all countries still in Phase II, the BHM model is used to generate 100,000
double-logistic curves for all countries that have experienced a fertility decline (see example in figure 10),
representing the uncertainty in the double-logistic decline function of those countries (graphs of this
double-logistic curve are available online 6 ). The sample of double-logistic curves is then used to calculate
100,000 total fertility projections for all countries which have not reached Phase III in 2005-2010. For
each trajectory, at any given time, the double-logistic function gives the expected decrement in total
fertility based on its current level. A distortion term is added to the expected decrement to calculate the
projected change in total fertility. (This distortion term represents the deviations of fertility decrements
from the double-logistic curve, as observed in past declines.)
Once a trajectory has decreased to a level that is around or below replacement-level fertility, and after
the pace of the fertility decline has decreased to zero, future changes of fertility are calculated using a
time series model of fertility recovery that is informed by the countries that have experienced fertility
increases.
Figure 10. Total fertility decrements and projection intervals of double-logistic
curves for Algeria (systematic decline part)

NOTE: The observed five-year decrements by level of total fertility are shown by black dots. For clarity, only 80
trajectories from 100,000 are displayed. The median projection is the solid bold red line, and the 80% and 95%
projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively.

An additional innovation in the 2010 revision of the World Population Prospects is the removal of the
1.85 floor used in previous revisions as stabilization level after the fertility transition; the total fertility is
now allowed to decrease below replacement level (i.e., 2.1 children per woman) in the projections
because of the uncertainty up to which level fertility will decline (end of Phase II) before it starts to
6

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The
2010 Revision. New York. Online plots of total fertility decline curves (based on Double-Logistic function) from the Bayesian
Hierarchical Model (BHM): median, 80% and 95% projection intervals: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/fertility_figures/interactivefigures_DL-functions.htm

30

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recover toward replacement level (start of Phase III). The pace of the fertility change, the level and timing
when Phase II stops and Phase III starts vary for each of the 100,000 projected trajectories for a country
that has not reached Phase III in 2005-2010: Its future trajectories are a combination of total fertility in
Phase II and Phase III until Phase III has started in all trajectories. For countries that are already in Phase
III, the time series model for that phase is used directly.
For each country, the end result is 100,000 projected country trajectories. The median of these
100,000 trajectories is used as the medium fertility variant projection in the World Population Prospects.
To evaluate future trends in fertility, 80% and 95% projection intervals are also calculated (see figure 11
for Algeria, additional graphs are available online for all countries 7 ). For countries which have not
reached Phase III in 2005-2010, the projected median trajectory reflects the uncertainty as to when the
fertility transition will end and at which level.
Figure 11. Probabilistic trajectories of projected total fertility (2010-2100) for Algeria

NOTE: For clarity, only 80 trajectories from 100,000 are displayed. The median projection is the solid bold red line, and
the 80% and 95% projection intervals are displayed as dashed and dotted red lines respectively. The high-low fertility
variants in the 2010 Revision correspond to +/- 0.5 child around the median trajectory displayed as blue dashed lines.

For a small set of countries which are still at the very early stage of their fertility transition (e.g.,
Burkina Faso, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mayotte, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, United
Republic of Tanzania, Yemen) or have experienced recent fertility stalling (e.g., Israel, Kenya, Malawi,
Somalia, Zambia), some post-adjustment was performed to preserve a smoother continuity with the recent
trend in the past decade. In these countries, fertility decline has been much slower than typically
experienced in the past decades by other countries at similar levels of fertility. As seen in Figure 12 for
Kenya, fertility decline has been stalling at around 5 children per woman for the past decade: the observed
7

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The
2010 Revision. New York. Online plots of projections of total fertility: median, 80% and 95% projection intervals, high and low
WPP fertility variants: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/fertility_figures/interactive-figures_TF-trajectories.htm

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31

decline between 2000-2010 was much smaller than in previous periods ( 0.2 child per woman by 5-year
period), especially compared to other countries at similar level of fertility in the past. In such cases, the
double-logistic model does not fit well the recent observations, and the projections are adjusted using the
difference between the observed and expected decrement in the last period. Specifically, in the first and
second projection periods, a decreasing proportion of this difference is added to the expected decrement,
such that the adjusted expected decrement in those periods takes into account the difference between the
double-logistic and observed decrement in the last observation period. Figure 13 shows the unadjusted
and adjusted projection of total fertility for Kenya.

Figure 12. Total fertility decrements and projection intervals of double-logistic curves for Kenya

NOTE: The black dots represent the observed decrements, which are much smaller than the double-logisticdecrements in the last two observation periods because of a stall in the fertility decline. For clarity, only 80
trajectories from 100,000 are displayed.

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World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Figure 13. Probabilistic trajectories of projected total fertility (2010-2100) for Kenya (adjusted)

NOTE: For clarity, only 80 trajectories from 100,000 are displayed.

In addition, for seven countries with fertility already around replacement levels (i.e., 2.1 children per
woman) which have experienced recent up-surge of fertility since mid-2000 (e.g., Australia, Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Iceland, Mongolia, New Zealand), only the phase III model was applied to
insure consistency with the historical and regional context, and demographic trends of these countries.
Figure 14 shows for Kazakhstan the adjusted median projection compared to the unadjusted one which is
a combination of trajectories based on Phases II and III (and assume greater uncertainty as to the
completion of the fertility transition).

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


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33

Figure 14. Probabilistic trajectories of projected total fertility (2010-2100) for Kazakhstan (adjusted)

NOTE: For clarity, only 80 trajectories from 100,000 are displayed.

The results of this new modelling approach are country-specific projections of total fertility that are
fully reproducible and take into account past empirical trends. Extensive documentation for all countries
and areas has been posted online 8 , and further details about the methodology are available from Alkema
et al. 9 . In addition, an open-source and portable software implementation of the new UN approach to
project total fertility, based on the R statistical language, developed by Sevcikova et al. 10 is available as a
fully documented R package (bayesTFR 11 ) through the public R CRAN archive together with a userfriendly Graphical User Interface (bayesDem 12 ). Version 1.3-0 of the package was used to compute the
final set of projections used for the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects 13 .
8

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The
2010 Revision. New York. Online plots of projections of total fertility: median, 80% and 95% projection intervals, high and low
WPP fertility variants: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/fertility_figures/interactive-figures_TF-trajectories.htm
9
Alkema L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, G.K. Heilig (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the
Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography, vol. 48, number 3, pp. 815-839, doi: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5 and
Working Paper of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, 2010, vol. 97. URL
http://www.csss.washington.edu/Papers/wp97.pdf
10
Sevcikova H., L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery (2011): bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility
Rate. Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 43, number 1, pp. 1-29. URL: http://www.jstatsoft.org/v43/i01/
11
Sevcikova H., L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery (2011). bayesTFR: Bayesian Fertility Projection. R Package and documentation:
http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/bayesTFR/index.html
12
Sevcikova H. (2011). bayesDem: Graphical User Interface for bayesTFR and bayesLife. R Package and documentation:
http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/bayesDem/index.html
13
The estimates of the double logistic parameters are based on three parallel chains of 62,000 iterations discarding the first 2,000
of each chain to yield a total of 180,000 samples of all model parameters. For each country, 100,000 trajectories were projected,
and used to derive the median and other projection intervals. The AR(1) parameters used for the Phase III were estimated using
maximum-likelihood estimation based on 55 empirical observations of countries having already experienced Phase III. Total
computation time was about 7 days on a 32-bit Windows server. The seed of the random number generator for the Markov Chain
Monte Carlo estimation used was: 20110206.

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2. High-fertility assumption
Under the high variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children above the fertility in the medium
variant over most of the projection period. By 2020-2025, fertility in the high variant is therefore half a
child higher than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total fertility of 2.1 children per
woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 2.6 children per woman in the high variant.
3. Low-fertility assumption
Under the low variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children below the fertility in the medium
variant over most of the projection period. By 2020-2025, fertility in the low variant is therefore half a
child lower than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total fertility of 2.1 children per
woman in the medium variant have a total fertility of 1.6 children per woman in the low variant.
4. Constant-fertility assumption
For each country, fertility remains constant at the level estimated for 2005-2010.
5. Instant-replacement assumption
For each country, fertility is set to the level necessary to ensure a net reproduction rate of 1 starting in
2010-2015. Fertility varies over the rest of the projection period in such a way that the net reproduction
rate always remains equal to unity thus ensuring, over the long-run, the replacement of the population.
B. MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS: INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY
EXCEPT WHEN AFFECTED BY HIV/AIDS
1. Normal-mortality assumption
Mortality is projected on the basis of models of change of life expectancy produced by the United
Nations Population Division. These models produce smaller gains the higher the life expectancy already
reached. The selection of a model for each country is based on recent trends in life expectancy by sex. For
countries highly affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the model incorporating a slow pace of mortality
decline has generally been used to project a certain slowdown in the reduction of general mortality risks
not related to HIV/AIDS.
2. The impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality
In the 2010 Revision, countries where HIV prevalence among persons aged 1549 was ever equal to
or greater than two percent during 19802009, and/or the maximum effect of HIV/AIDS on life
expectancy at birth was estimated to be greater or equal to two years are considered as affected by the
HIV/AIDS epidemic and their mortality is projected by modelling explicitly the course of the epidemic
and projecting the yearly incidence of HIV infection. Also considered among the affected countries are
those where HIV prevalence is lower than one per cent but whose population is so large that the number
of people living with HIV in 2009 is more than 700,000 (i.e., China, India, Russian Federation, United
States). In total, 48 countries are considered to be most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 2010
Revision.

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35

The model developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and
Projections 14,15,16 is used to fit past estimates of HIV prevalence provided by UNAIDS for each of the
affected countries so as to derive the parameters determining the past dynamics of the epidemic in each of
them. For most countries, the model is fitted assuming that the relevant parameters have remained
constant in the past. Beginning in 2009, the parameter PHI, which reflects the rate of recruitment of new
individuals into the high-risk or susceptible group, is projected to decline by half every twenty years. The
parameter R, which represents the force of infection, is projected to decline by half every thirty years. The
reduction in R reflects the assumption that changes in behaviour among those subject to the risk of
infection, along with increases in access to treatment for those infected, will reduce the chances of HIV
transmission.
In the 2010 Revision, interventions to prevent the mother-to-child transmission of HIV are modelled
on the basis of estimated country-specific coverage levels that, in 2009, averaged 51 per cent among the
48 affected countries, but varied from 6 to 100 per cent among them (with 10 countries having less than
20 per cent coverage of pregnant women in 2009, and 14 countries with more than 75 per cent coverage).
These coverage levels are projected to reach 74 per cent on average by 2015, varying between 40 per cent
and 95 per cent among the affected countries. 17 After 2015, the coverage of interventions to prevent
mother-to-child transmission of HIV is assumed to remain constant until 2100 at the level reached in each
of the affected countries in 2015. Among women receiving treatment, the probability of transmission
from mother to child is assumed to vary between 2 per cent and 20 per cent depending on the particular
combination of breastfeeding practices (mixed breastfeeding, replacement feeding, exclusive
breastfeeding), its duration in the population and the type of treatment available (single-dose nevirapine,
dual ARV prophylaxis, triple ARV prophylaxis or treatment). These assumptions produce a reduction in
the incidence of HIV infection among children born to HIV-positive women, but the size of the
reductions varies from country to country depending on the level of coverage that treatment reaches in
each country.
16

The survivorship of infected children takes account of varying access to pediatric treatment.17 In the
2010 Revision, HIV-infected children are divided into two groups: (i) those infected in-utero, among
whom the disease progresses rapidly and whose median survival is set at 1.1 years, and (ii) those infected
through breastfeeding after birth, among whom the disease progresses slowly and whose average survival
16
is set at 9.4 years without treatment . Explicit inclusion of pediatric treatment is done via countryspecific coverage levels which average 33 per cent in 2009 but vary between 0 and 99 per cent among the
48 affected countries (with 8 countries having less than 10 per cent coverage in 2009 and only 7 countries
17
having a coverage level above 75 per cent ). By 2015, the projected coverage is expected to reach 58 per
cent on average in the 48 affected countries, varying from 40 per cent to 99 per cent. Coverage levels are
assumed to remain constant from 2015 to 2100 at the level reached in each country by 2015. The annual
survival of children receiving treatment is 85 per cent during the first year and 93 per cent for subsequent
years. 18
14

Ghys P.D., G.P. Garnett (2010). The 2009 HIV and AIDS estimates and projections: methods, tools and analyses. Sexually
Transmitted Infections. vol. 86, supplement 2, pp. ii1-ii2; doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.047852 - http://sti.bmj.com/content/86/Suppl_2.
15
Brown T., L. Bao, A. E. Raftery, J. A. Salomon, R. F. Baggaley, J. Stover, P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the
antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections. vol. 86, supplement 2,
pp. ii3-ii10; doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.044784 - http://sti.bmj.com/content/86/Suppl_2.
16
Stover J., P. Johnson, T. Hallett, M. Marston, R. Becquet, I. M. Timaeus (2010). The Spectrum projection package:
improvements in estimating incidence by age and sex, mother-to-child transmission, HIV progression in children and double
orphans. Sexually Transmitted Infections. vol. 86, supplement 2, pp. ii16-ii21; doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.044222 http://sti.bmj.com/content/86/Suppl_2
17
UNAIDS (2010). Children and AIDS - Fifth Stocktaking Report, 2010. Nov. 2010.
http://www.unicef.org/publications/index_57005.html.
18

Mahy M., C. Lewden, M. W. G Brinkhof , F. Dabis, J.-M. Tassie, Y. Souteyrand (2010). Derivation of parameters used
in Spectrum for eligibility for antiretroviral therapy and survival on antiretroviral therapy. Sexually Transmitted Infections.
36

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

The 2010 Revision incorporates a revised survival for persons receiving treatment with highly active
antiretroviral therapy (ART).16,18 The proportion of the HIV-positive population receiving treatment in
each country is consistent with estimates prepared by the World Health Organization 19 and UNAIDS
which averaged 64 per cent in 2009 among the 48 affected countries, but varied between 24 per cent and
100 per cent. Coverage is projected to reach between 40 per cent and 99 per cent by 2015, averaging 84
per cent for the affected countries. Between 2015 and 2050, coverage levels are assumed to remain
constant at the level reached in each country by 2015. It is assumed that adults receiving treatment have,
on average, an 86 per cent chance of surviving on the first year of treatment, and a 90 per cent chance of
surviving each year thereafter in the absence of other causes of death. Under this assumption, mean
survival time after the initiation of therapy is 9.1 years and the median survival time is 5.6 years, in the
absence of other causes of death. Therapy is assumed to start at the time full-blown AIDS develops.
Without treatment, infected adults have a mean survival time of 2.6 years (and a median survival time of
2.1 years) after the onset of full-blown AIDS. 16,18
3. Constant-mortality assumption
Under this assumption, mortality over the projection period is maintained constant for each country at
the level estimated for 2005-2010.
C. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS
1. Normal migration assumption
Under the normal migration assumption, the future path of international migration is set on the basis
of past international migration estimates and consideration of the policy stance of each country with
regard to future international migration flows. Projected levels of net migration are generally kept
constant over the next decades. After 2050, it is assumed that net migration will gradually decline and
reach zero by 2100.
2. Zero-migration assumption
Under this assumption, for each country, international migration is set to zero starting in 2010-2015.
D. EIGHT PROJECTION VARIANTS
The 2010 Revision includes eight different projection variants (table V.1). Five of those variants
differ among themselves only with respect to the level of fertility in each, that is, they share the
assumptions made with respect to mortality and international migration. The five fertility variants are:
low, medium, high, constant-fertility and instant-replacement fertility. A comparison of their results
allows an assessment of the effects that different fertility paths have on other demographic parameters.
In addition to the five fertility variants, a constant-mortality variant, a zero-migration variant and a no
change variant (i.e., both fertility and mortality are kept constant) have been prepared. The constant-mortality
variant and the zero-migration variant both have the same fertility assumption (i.e., medium fertility).
October 2010, Volume 86, Supplement 2, pp. ii28-ii34; doi:10.1136/sti.2010.044255 http://sti.bmj.com/content/86/Suppl_2.
19
WHO/UNAIDS/UNICEF. Towards universal access: scaling up priority HIV/AIDS interventions in the health sector,
progress report 2010. Geneva, WHO, 2010. http://www.who.int/hiv/en/.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

37

Furthermore, the constant-mortality variant has the same international migration assumption as the medium
variant. Consequently, the results of the constant-mortality variant can be compared with those of the medium
variant to assess the effect that changing mortality has on various population quantities. Similarly, the zeromigration variant differs from the medium variant only with respect to the underlying assumption regarding
international migration. Therefore, the zero-migration variant allows an assessment of the effect that non-zero
net migration has on various population quantities. Lastly, the no change variant has the same international
migration as the medium variant but differs from the latter by having constant fertility and mortality. When
compared to the medium variant, therefore, its results shed light on the effects that changing fertility and
mortality have on the results obtained.
TABLE V.1. PROJECTION VARIANTS IN TERMS OF ASSUMPTIONS FOR

FERTILITY, MORTALITY

AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Assumptions
Projection variant

Low fertility
Medium fertility
High fertility
Constant-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Constant-mortality
No change
Zero-migration

Fertility

Low
Medium
High
Constant as of 2005-2010
Instant-replacement as of 2010-2015
Medium
Constant as of 2005-2010
Medium

Mortality

Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Constant as of 2005-2010
Constant as of 2005-2010
Normal

International
migration

Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Zero as of 2010-2015

E. METHODOLOGICAL CHANGES INTRODUCED IN THE 2010 REVISION


The following changes and adjustments were made in the 2010 Revision in relation to procedures
followed in the 2008 Revision.

The 2010 Revision uses a new stochastic model for fertility projection as described above in
section A.1 of Chapter V, and the medium fertility variant corresponds to the median of 100,000
projected country trajectories.

The 2010 Revision uses a long term stabilization level of 2.1 children per woman (which for
many countries might only be reached by the end of the century or even later) rather than 1.85
children per woman as in previous revisions when the projection horizon was only up to 2050.

With the extension of the projection horizon for all countries up to 2100 as part of the 2010
revision of the UN World Population Prospects, it was necessary to allow life expectancy at birth
to go beyond the limits of the standard model life table families (Coale and Demeny, 1966 and
Coale and Guo, 1989 ; as well as United Nations, 1982) which are commonly used to derive a
variety of mortality indicators and as underlying mortality patterns for estimation and projection.
As part of the 2010 Revision a new and extended version of Coale-Demeny and United Nations
model life tables has been developed which extends the standard model life table families from
75 to 100 years of life expectancy at birth. This new version also insures greater consistency with
the mortality experience of countries with the highest levels of life expectancy as recorded in the
20
Human Mortality Database .

20

For further details about the new extended models, see http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Model-Life-Tables/download-page.html and
for the methodology, see annex in Li, N. and P. Gerland (2011). "Modifying the Lee-Carter Method to Project Mortality Changes

38

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

In the 2010 Revision, the impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality is modelled explicitly for all
countries where HIV prevalence among persons aged 15 to 49 was ever equal to or greater
than two per cent between 1980 and 2009 in the general population, and/or the maximum
effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy at birth is two or more years. Also considered among
the affected countries are those where HIV prevalence is lower than one per cent but whose
population is so large that the number of people living with HIV in 2009 is more than
700,000 (i.e., China, India, Russian Federation, United States).

Both the survival time of HIV-positive children receiving treatment and the survival time of
HIV-positive adults receiving treatment (after developing full-blown AIDS) decreased with
respect to that used in the 2008 Revision (mean survival was revised down for children from
15.6 years to 11.6 and for adults from 17.4 years to 9.1). The revisions are consistent with
recommendations of UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections
(web site: http://www.epidem.org).

up to 2100" Paper presented at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA) in Session 125: Formal
Demography I: Mathematical Models and Methods on Friday 1 April http://paa2011.princeton.edu/sessionViewer.aspx?SessionId=1002
Coale, A. J. and P. Demeny (1966). Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Princeton University Press.
Coale, A. J. and G. Guo (1989). Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Population Index, vol. 55,
number 4, pp. 613-643. URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3644567
United Nations (1982). Model life tables for developing countries. Population Studies, vol. 77. New York: United Nations. URL:
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/Model_Life_Tables/Model_Life_Tables.htm

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

39

VI. ORDERING THE WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS


DATA ON CD-ROM OR DVD
The 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects, prepared by the United Nations Population
Division, provides a comprehensive and consistent set of population data for the worlds countries and
their aggregates.
The results of this Revision are available on three CD-ROM or DVD editions that differ with regard to
the data included and their prices (table 1). All three disks contain estimates and projections of national
populations by five-year age group and sex for 1950-2100 and demographic indicators for the same period. Data for 1950-2010 are estimates and those thereafter are projections.
The Comprehensive CD-ROM contains for all fertility projection variants (low, medium, high and
constant-fertility) all essential data such as total births, total deaths, total net-migration, the respective
crude rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, infant and child mortality, summary measures of adult mortality and deaths by broad age groups, total fertility, net-reproduction rate and population growth rates for
1950-2100 by five-year periods. It includes population by five-year age group and sex for five-year periods and interpolated annual total population. In addition, this CD edition provides births and deaths by
five-year age group, the corresponding age-specific fertility and mortality rates and abridged life tables
(survivors and life expectancies at specific ages). It also comprises standard sets of demographic indicators
and population by age group and sex for four other variants (instant-replacement-fertility, zero-migration,
constant-mortality and no mortality and fertility change) and for two AIDS mortality scenarios. All data on
this CD are presented in Excel worksheets and correspond to the datasets 1 to 3 and 5 to 12 listed in table
1.
The Extended DVD-ROM contains all the data from the Comprehensive CD, plus population figures
by single calendar year and single age group for 1950-2100. This DVD also provides interpolated demographic indicators for single calendar years (total births and deaths, their respective crude rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, infant and child mortality, survivors to age 1, total fertility, etc.), urban population,
population density and interpolated total population by broad age group and sex, and their respective percentage distributions and sex ratios. The data are presented in Excel and database formats (ASCII comma
delimited format for all datasets) and correspond to all datasets listed in table 1.
The first two disks show data for 230 countries and areas, 35 country aggregates, including the world
as a whole, the more and the less developed regions, and the major areas. For the AIDS scenarios (datasets
11-12), special aggregations by region and HIV prevalence level in 2009 are provided for 48 countries
affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
A new DVD-ROM for Special Aggregates contains a subset of indicators from the Extended dataset
(only medium fertility variant), but instead of the breakdown by countries, data are aggregated for 276
functional groupings such as: 30 geographical regions (e.g., Central Asia, etc.), 54 economic and trading
groups (e.g., World Bank regions and income groups, NAFTA, OPEC, OECD, G7, G20, BRIC, BRICS,
ECOWAS, MERCOSUR, etc. ), 32 political groups (e.g., NATO, G77, EU (15, 27, etc.), ASEAN, Arab
League, African Union, GCC, SADC, SAARC, Sahel, Maghreb, Mashreq, etc.), 90 United Nations regional groups (e.g., UN Regional Commissions, MDGs, UNICEF, WHO, FAO, UNFPA, Non-Self Governing Territories), and 70 ecological groups (e.g., land-locked developing countries, small island developing states, countries with access to the sea, major international river basins, rainforest basins, extreme
weather conditions, etc.).
The Microsoft Excel files correspond to version 97/2003 and later of this software. For a detailed listing of the contents of each disk, see table 2. Data files in database formats are shown in table 3.
For information on how to order any of these disks please see the order form at the end.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

41

Table 1. Summary contents of each CD-ROM or DVD


230 countries/areas and standard
geographic regions only)

Description:
Datasets included on CD-ROM or DVD
0. Location list and meta-infomation about
latest data sources used

Comprehensive
CD
Excel format

1. Period indicators, five-year periods

Excel format

2. Stock indicators, five-year periods (and


annual population)

Excel format

3. Population by five-year age group and sex,


five-year periods

Excel format

4. Population by five-year age group and sex,


annual
5. Mortality indicators by age and sex, five-year
periods

Excel format

6. Fertility indicators by age, five-year periods

Excel format

7. Instant-replacement-fertility variant

Excel format

8. Zero-migration variant

Excel format

9. Constant-mortality variant

Excel format

10. No change variant (constant-mortality and


constant-fertility)

Excel format

11. No-AIDS mortality scenario

Excel format

12. AIDS mortality scenario (medium)

Excel format

13. Interpolated demographic and population


indicators, annual
14. Population (by sex and both sexes
combined) interpolated by single years of
age and single calendar years
Price ($US)

42

$100

Extended DVD
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
Excel and
database
formats
$400

276 functional,
economical, political,
and ecological
groupings
Special
AggregatesDVD
Excel and database
formats
Excel and database
formats
Excel and database
formats
Excel and database
formats

Excel and database


formats
Excel and database
formats

$1200

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

F0.1

Location list with codes (numerical and


ISO3), description, major area, region
and development group; countries with
explicit HIV/AIDS mortality modelling
in WPP 2010 revision, HIV prevalence
rate (%) in population aged 15-49 years
in 2009 (UNAIDS, 2011) and by
prevalence group, peak of HIV
epidemic (year and value for maximum
prevalence between 1980-2009),
comparison for 2007 HIV prevalence
rate between UNAIDS 2008 and 2010
revisions.

C/E
SA

230
270

---

---

---

F0.2

Latest data sources (summary, type of


data and reference date) used to derive
estimates for total population, fertility,
mortality and migrations by countries
or areas (includes information about
method used to derive mortality
estimates, age mortality pattern and
child mortality).

C/E
SA

230
270

---

---

---

Dataset 1.

Period indicators, five-year periods


1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

F1.

Total fertility

C/E
SA

197
270

F2.

Net reproduction rate

C/E
SA

197
270

F3.

Crude birth rate

C/E
SA

197
270

F4.

Births (both sexes)

C/E
SA

197
270

F5.

Life expectancy at birth (e0) by sex

F6.1

Infant mortality rate, q(1)

F6.2

Under-five mortality, q(5)

C/E
SA
C/E
SA
C/E
SA

197
270
197
270
197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

1950-1955,.20952100
1950-1955,.20952100
1980-2000,.20952100

-------

43

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


44

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

Periods covered

Age groups

1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F7.

Crude death rate

C/E
SA

197
270

F8.

Total number of deaths by sex

C/E
SA

197
270

F9.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

C/E
SA

197
270

F10.

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex

C/E
SA

197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

1950-1955,.20952100

F11.

Probability of dying between birth and


the age of 40 years (40q0) by sex
Probability of dying between birth and
the age of 60 years (60q0) by sex
Probability of dying between the ages
of 15 and 50 years (35q15) by sex
Probability of dying between the ages
of 15 and 60 years (45q15) by sex

C/E
SA
C/E
SA
C/E
SA
C/E
SA
C/E
SA
C/E
SA
C/E
SA

197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270

Medium-fertility

1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100

F12.
F13.
F14.
F15.
F16.
F17.

Life expectancy at age 15 (e15) by sex


Life expectancy at age 15 (e60) by sex
Life expectancy at age 80 (e80) by sex

F18.

Net migration rate

C/E
SA

197
270

F19.

Net number of migrants (both sexes)

C/E
SA

197
270

F20.

Average annual rate of population


change

C/E
SA

230

F21.

Rate of natural increase

C/E
SA

197
270

Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Medium-fertility
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility

1950-1955,.20952100

0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,


15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
---------------

1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

1950-1955,.20952100

---

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

F22.

Sex ratio at birth

F23.

Female mean age of childbearing

Dataset 2.

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E
SA
C/E
SA

197
270
197
270

CDROM /
DVD

Medium-fertility only
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

Periods covered

1950-1955,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100

Age groups

-----

Stock indicators

F1.

Total population (both sexes), annual

C/E
SA

230
270

F2.

Male population, annual

C/E
SA

197
270

F3.

Female population, annual

C/E
SA

197
270

F4.

Sex ratio of the total population

C/E
SA

197
270

F5.1A

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)

C/E
SA

197
270

F5.1B

Total dependency ratio (<20 &


65+)/(20-64)

C/E
SA

197
270

F5.1C

Total dependency ratio (<20 &


70+)/(20-69)

C/E
SA

197
270

F5.1D

Total dependency ratio (<25 &


65+)/(25-64)

C/E
SA

197
270

F5.1E

Total dependency ratio (<25 &


70+)/(25-69)

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)


F5.2A
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
F5.2B

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

1950, 1951,.2099,
2100

---

1950, 1951,.2099,
2100

---

1950, 1951,.2099,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

45

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


46

Dataset
and File

Indicators
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)

F5.2C
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
F5.2D
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
F5.2E
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
F5.3A
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
F5.3B
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F5.3C
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
F5.3D
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)
F5.3D
Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+
F5.4A
Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+
F5.4B
Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+
F5.4C
Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+
F5.4D
Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+
F5.4E
F6.

Median age of the population

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E
SA

197
270

C/E

197

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility

Periods covered

Age groups

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

1950, 1955,.2095,

---

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

F7.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex

Edition1
SA
C/E
SA

F8.

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex

C/E
SA

F9.1

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

F9.2

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

F10.

Population density

Dataset 3.
F1.

Number
of
countries
or areas
270
197
270

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

F3.

Age groups

Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

2100
1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

C/E
SA

197
270

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

C/E
SA

197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

C/E
SA

230
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

---

C/E
SA

197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

1950, 1955,.1985,
1990

0-4, 5-9,75-79, 80+

1995, 2000,.2095,
2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+

1950, 1955,.1985,
1990

0-4, 5-9,75-79, 80+

1950, 1955,.2095,
2100

Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-17, 019, 0-24, 5-14, 6-11, 1214, 15+, 15-17, 15-24, 1549, 15-59, 15-64, 18+, 1823, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+,
70+, 75+, 80+, 85+, 90+,
etc.
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-17, 019, 0-24, 5-14, 6-11, 1214, 15+, 15-17, 15-24, 1549, 15-59, 15-64, 18+, 1823, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+,
70+, 75+, 80+, 85+, 90+,
etc.
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-17, 019, 0-24, 5-14, 6-11, 1214, 15+, 15-17, 15-24, 1549, 15-59, 15-64, 18+, 1823, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+,
70+, 75+, 80+, 85+, 90+,
etc.

Population by age and sex, five-year periods


Population by five-year age group
(both sexes)

F2.

Periods covered

Male population by five-year age group

Female population by five-year age


group

C/E
SA

C/E
SA

197
270

197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility

1995, 2000,.2095,
2100
1950, 1955,.1985,
1990

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9,75-79, 80+

47

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


48

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

1995, 2000,.2095,
2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+

1950, 1951,.1994

0-4, 5-9,75-79, 80+

1995, 1996,.2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+

1950, 1951,.1994

0-4, 5-9,75-79, 80+

1995, 1996,.2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+

1950, 1951,.1994

0-4, 5-9,75-79, 80+

1995, 1996,.2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+

1995-2000,.20952100

0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+

1995-2000,.20952100

0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+

1995-2000,.20952100

0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+

Medium-fertility only

Dataset 4.
F1A.

Population by age and sex, annual (interpolated from five-year periods)


Population by five-year age group
(both sexes)

197

197

197

Medium-fertility

F1B.
F2A.
F2B.
F3A.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F3B.
Dataset 5.

Population by five-year age group


(male)

Population by five-year age group


(female)

Medium-fertility

Mortality indicators by age and sex, five-year periods

F1.

Deaths by five-year age group (both


sexes)

C/E
SA

197
270

F2.

Deaths by five-year age group (male)

C/E
SA

197
270

F3.

Deaths by five-year age group (female)

C/E
SA

197
270

F4.

Life table l(x) values by sex

F5.

Life expectancy at age (x) by sex

C/E
SA
C/E
SA

197
270
197
270

Dataset 6.

Medium-fertility

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

1995-2000,.20952100
1995-2000,.20952100

0, 1, 5, 10,.80, 85
0, 1, 5, 10,.95, 100

Fertility indicators by age, five-year periods

F1.

Births by five-year age group of mother

C/E
SA

197
270

F2.

Age-specific fertility rates

C/E
SA

197
270

Low, medium, high,


constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only
Low, medium, high,
constant-fertility
Medium-fertility only

1995-2000,.20952100

15-19, 20-24,45-49

1995-2000,.20952100

15-19, 20-24,45-49

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

Dataset 7.

Instant-replacement-fertility variant

F1.

Population by five-year age group and


sex

C/E

197

F2.

Total population (both sexes)

C/E

230

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

F3.1A
F3.1B
F3.1C
F3.1D
F3.1E
F3.2A
F3.2B
F3.2C
F3.2D
F3.2E
F3.3A
F3.3B
F3.3C
F3.3D
F3.3E
F3.4A

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)
Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010, 2011,.2099,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100

Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility

-----------------------------------

49

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


50

Dataset
and File
F3.4B

Indicators
Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

CDROM /
DVD

Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+


F3.4C
F3.4D
F3.4D

Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+


Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility

Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility

Periods covered
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F4.

Median age of the population

C/E

197

F5.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

F6.

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F7.1

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F7.2

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F8.

Crude birth rate

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

F9.

Births (both sexes)

C/E

197

F10.

Total fertility

C/E

197

F11.

Crude death rate

C/E

197

F12.

Total number of deaths by sex

C/E

197

2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100

Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility
Instant-replacement-fertility

Age groups

----------Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
-----------

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
---

F13.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010-2015,.2095,
2100

F14.

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010-2015,.2095,
2100

C/E

197

Instant-replacement-fertility

2010-2015,.20952100

Zero-migration

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100
2010, 2011,.2099,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100

F17.
Dataset 8.

Average annual rate of population


change
Zero-migration variant

F1.

Population by five-year age group and


sex

C/E

197

F2.

Total population (both sexes)

C/E

230

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

F3.1A
F3.1B
F3.1C
F3.1D
F3.1D
F3.2A
F3.2B
F3.2C
F3.2D
F3.2E
F3.3A

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)

Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+
-------------------------

51

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


52

Dataset
and File
F3.3B
F3.3C
F3.3D
F3.3E
F3.4A
F3.4B
F3.4C
F3.4D
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F3.4E

Indicators
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)
Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+
Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+
Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration
Zero-migration

Periods covered

Age groups

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

---

F4.

Median age of the population

C/E

197

F5.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex

C/E

197

Zero-migration

F6.

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex

C/E

197

Zero-migration

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F7.1

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

C/E

197

Zero-migration

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F7.2

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

C/E

197

Zero-migration

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F8.

Crude birth rate

C/E

197

Zero-migration

2010-2015,.20952100

------------------Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
---

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Zero-migration

Periods covered

Age groups

2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.2095,
2100

---

F9.

Births (both sexes)

C/E

197

F11.

Crude death rate

C/E

197

F12.

Total number of deaths by sex

C/E

197

F13.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

C/E

197

Zero-migration

F14.

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex

C/E

197

Zero-migration

2010-2015,.2095,
2100

C/E

197

Zero-migration

2010-2015,.20952100

F1.

Population by five-year age group and


sex

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

F2.

Total population (both sexes)

C/E

230

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100
2010, 2011,.2099,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100

F17.
Dataset 9.

F3.1A
F3.1B
F3.1C
F3.1D
F3.1E
F3.2A
F3.2B
F3.2C

Average annual rate of population


change

Zero-migration
Zero-migration

----0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,


15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
---

Constant-mortality variant

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)

Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+
-------------------

53

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


54

Dataset
and File
F3.2D
F3.2E
F3.3A
F3.3B
F3.3C
F3.3D
F3.3E
F3.4A
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F3.4B
F3.4C
F3.4D
F3.4E

Indicators
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)
Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+
Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+
Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality

F4.

Median age of the population

C/E

197

F5.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

F6.

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

Periods covered

Age groups

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

---

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

------------------------Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
---

F7.1

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F7.2

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F8.

Crude birth rate

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

F9.

Births (both sexes)

C/E

197

F11.

Crude death rate

C/E

197

F12.

Total number of deaths by sex

C/E

197

F13.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.2095,
2100

F14.

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

2010-2015,.2095,
2100

F15.

Deaths by five-year age group and sex

C/E

197

Constant-mortality

F16.

Life expectancy at birth by sex

C/E

197

F17.

Average annual rate of population


change

C/E

197

2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100

Dataset 10.

Population by five-year age group and


sex

C/E

197

F2.

Total population (both sexes)

C/E

230

C/E

197

C/E

197

F3.1B

Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality

Constant-mortality
Constant-mortality

------0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,


15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 5-9, ...75-79, 80+
-----

No change variant (constant-mortality and constant-fertility)

F1.

F3.1A

Constant-mortality

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)

Constant mortality and


fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100
2010, 2011,.2099,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+
-------

55

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


56

Dataset
and File
F3.1C
F3.1D
F3.1E
F3.2A
F3.2B
F3.2C
F3.2D
F3.2E
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F3.3A
F3.3B
F3.3C
F3.3D
F3.3E
F3.4A
F3.4B
F3.4C
F3.4D
F3.4E
F4.

Indicators
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)
Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+
Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+
Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+

Median age of the population

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

C/E

197

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility

Periods covered

Age groups

2010, 2015, 2095,


2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100
2010, 2015, 2095,
2100

---------------------------------------

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1
F5.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex
C/E

F6.

Number
of
countries
or areas

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

Constant mortality and


fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

Constant mortality and


fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
---

197

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex
C/E

197

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

C/E

197

Constant mortality and


fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

C/E

197

Constant mortality and


fertility

2010, 2015,.2095,
2100

F8.

Crude birth rate

C/E

197

F9.

Births (both sexes)

C/E

197

F10.

Population density

C/E

197

F11.

Crude death rate

C/E

197

F12.

Total number of deaths by sex

C/E

197

F13.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

C/E

197

Constant mortality and


fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility

2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.2095,
2100

F14.

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex

C/E

197

Constant mortality and


fertility

2010-2015,.2095,
2100

F15.

Deaths by five-year age group and sex

C/E

197

Constant mortality and


fertility

2010-2015,.20952100

F7.1
F7.2

--------0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,


15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 5-9, ...75-79, 80+

57

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


58

Dataset
and File

Indicators

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

CDROM /
DVD

F16.

Life expectancy at birth by sex

C/E

197

F17.

Average annual rate of population


change

C/E

197

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
Constant mortality and
fertility
Constant mortality and
fertility

Periods covered

Age groups

2010-2015,.20952100
2010-2015,.20952100

-----

AIDS Mortality Scenarios for 48 countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic and 12 special aggregations (by region and HIV prevalence level in 2009)
Dataset 11.

No-AIDS mortality scenario

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

11.1

Period indicators

F2.

Net reproduction rate

C/E

48

F3.

Crude birth rate

C/E

48

F4.

Births (both sexes)

C/E

48

F5.

Life expectancy at birth by sex

C/E

48

F6.1

Infant mortality rate, q(1)

C/E

48

F6.2

Under-five mortality, q(5)

C/E

48

F7.

Crude death rate

C/E

48

F8.1

Total number of deaths (both sexes)

C/E

48

F8.2

Total number of male deaths

C/E

48

F8.3

Total number of female deaths

C/E

48

F9.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

C/E

48

No-AIDS mortality

F10.

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex

C/E

48

No-AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100

F11.

Probability of dying between birth and


the age of 40 years (40q0) by sex

C/E

48

No-AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
19801985,.2095-2100
19801985,.2095-2100
19801985,.2095-2100
19801985,.2095-2100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100

--------------------0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,


15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
---

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

Life expectancy at age 15 (e15) by sex

C/E

48

Life expectancy at age 15 (e60) by sex

C/E

48

Life expectancy at age 80 (e80) by sex

C/E

48

F20.

Average annual rate of population


change

C/E

48

F21.

Rate of natural increase

C/E

48

11.2

Stock indicators

F1.

Total population (both sexes), annual

C/E

48

F2.

Male population, annual

C/E

48

F3.

Female population, annual

C/E

48

F4.

Sex ratio of the total population

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

Dataset
and File

Indicators

F12.

Probability of dying between birth and


the age of 60 years (60q0) by sex

F13.

Probability of dying between the ages


of 15 and 50 years (35q15) by sex
Probability of dying between the ages
of 15 and 60 years (45q15) by sex

F14.
F15.
F16.
F17.

F5.1A
F5.1B
F5.1C
F5.1D
F5.1E
F5.2A
F5.2B

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)

CDROM /
DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

No-AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100

---

No-AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

59

1980, 1981,.2099,
2100
1980, 1981,.2099,
2100
1980, 1981,.2099,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

---------------

-----------------------

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


60

Dataset
and File
F5.2C
F5.2D
F5.2E
F5.3A
F5.3B
F5.3C
F5.3D
F5.3E

Indicators
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

CDROM /
DVD

Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+


F5.4A
F5.4B
F5.4C
F5.4D
F5.4E

Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+


Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+
Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+
Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+

F6.

Median age of the population

F7.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

C/E

F8.

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

48

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex

No-AIDS mortality
C/E

Periods covered

48

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

Age groups

----------------------------Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1
F9.1
F9.2

11.3
F1.
F2.

Number
of
countries
or areas

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

C/E

48

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

C/E

48

Population by age and sex, five-year periods


Population by five-year age group
C/E
(both sexes)
Male population by five-year age group

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

11.4

Female population by five-year age


group
Population by age and sex, annual

F1.

Population by five-year age group

C/E

48

F2.

Population by five-year age group


(male)

C/E

48

F3.

F3.
11.5
F1.

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

No-AIDS mortality

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

No-AIDS mortality

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

No-AIDS mortality

1980, 1985,. 2095,


2100
1980, 1985,. 2095,
2100
1980, 1985,. 2095,
2100

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

No-AIDS mortality

1980, 1981,.2100

No-AIDS mortality

Population by five-year age group


C/E
(female)
Mortality indicators by age and sex, five-year periods
Deaths by five-year age group (both
C/E
sexes)

48

48

F2.

Deaths by five-year age group (male)

C/E

48

F3.

Deaths by five-year age group (female)

C/E

48

F4.

Life table l(x) values by sex

C/E

48

F5.

Life expectancy at age (x) by sex

C/E

48

11.6

Fertility indicators by age, five-year periods

F1.

Births by five-year age group of mother

C/E

48

F2.

Age-specific fertility rates

C/E

48

1980, 1981,.2100
No-AIDS mortality

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

No-AIDS mortality
No-AIDS mortality

1980, 1981,.2100

1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100

Age groups
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+

0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+


0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+
0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+
0, 1, 5, 10,.80, 85
0, 1, 5, 10,.95, 100

15-19, 20-24,45-49
15-19, 20-24,45-49

61

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


62

Dataset
and File

Dataset 12.

Indicators

CDROM /

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

DVD

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Period indicators

F2.

Net reproduction rate

C/E

48

F3.

Crude birth rate

C/E

48

F4.

Births (both sexes)

C/E

48

F5.

Life expectancy at birth by sex

C/E

48

F6.1

Infant mortality rate, q(1)

C/E

48

F6.2

Under-five mortality, q(5)


C/E

48

C/E

48

Crude death rate

F8.1

Total number of deaths (both sexes)

C/E

48

F8.2

Total number of male deaths

C/E

48

F8.3

Total number of female deaths

C/E

48

F9.

Total deaths by broad age group and by


sex

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

C/E

F12.

AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality

F7.

F12.

Periods covered

Age groups

AIDS mortality scenario (same as


medium)

12.1

F10.

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
19801985,.2095-2100
19801985,.2095-2100
19801985,.2095-2100
19801985,.2095-2100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100

48

Percentage total deaths by broad age


group and by sex
C/E

48

Probability of dying between birth and


the age of 40 years (40q0) by sex

C/E

48

Probability of dying between birth and


the age of 60 years (60q0) by sex

C/E

48

AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100

AIDS mortality

1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100

AIDS mortality

-------------

--------0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,


15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 0-24, 5-14,
15+, 15-24, 15-49, 15-59,
15-64, 20+, 20-64, 20-69,
25+, 25-69, 40+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 80+, 90+
-----

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

CDROM /

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

48

C/E

48

Life expectancy at age 15 (e15) by sex

C/E

48

Life expectancy at age 15 (e60) by sex

C/E

48

Life expectancy at age 80 (e80) by sex

C/E

48

F20.

Average annual rate of population


change

C/E

48

F21.

Rate of natural increase

C/E

48

12.2

Stock indicators

F1.

Total population (both sexes), annual

C/E

48

F2.

Male population, annual

C/E

48

F3.

Female population, annual

C/E

48

F4.

Sex ratio of the total population

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

Dataset
and File
F13.
F14.
F15.
F16.
F17.

F5.1A
F5.1B
F5.1C
F5.1D
F5.1E
F5.2A
F5.2B
F5.2C

Indicators
Probability of dying between the ages
of 15 and 50 years (35q15) by sex
Probability of dying between the ages
of 15 and 60 years (45q15) by sex

Total dependency ratio (<15 &


65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)

DVD

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

Periods covered
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980, 1981,.2099,
2100
1980, 1981,.2099,
2100
1980, 1981,.2099,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

Age groups

---------------

-------------------------

63

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


64

Dataset
and File
F5.2D
F5.2E
F5.3A
F5.3B
F5.3C
F5.3D
F5.3E
F5.4A
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

F5.4B
F5.4C

Indicators
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)
Potential support ratio (15-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-64)/ 65+
Potential support ratio (20-69)/70+

CDROM /

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

DVD

Potential support ratio (25-64)/65+


F5.4D
F5.4E

Potential support ratio (25-69)/70+

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

F6.

Median age of the population

C/E

48

F7.

Total population by broad age group


and by sex

C/E

48

AIDS mortality

F8.

Percentage total population by broad


age group and by sex

C/E

48

AIDS mortality

Periods covered
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100
1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

Age groups

--------------------------Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+
Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File
F9.1
F9.2

12.3
F1.
F2.

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

Sex ratio by broad age group (males


per 100 females by age group)

C/E

48

Feminity ratio by broad age group


(females per 100 males by age group)

C/E

48

Indicators

Male population by five-year age group

12.4
F1.

Population by five-year age group

F2.
F3.
12.5
F1.

DVD

Population by age and sex, five-year periods


Population by five-year age group
C/E
(both sexes)

Female population by five-year age


group
Population by age and sex, annual

F3.

CDROM /

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

C/E

48

Population by five-year age group


C/E
(male)
Population by five-year age group
C/E
(female)
Mortality indicators by age and sex, five-year periods
Deaths by five-year age group (both
C/E
sexes)

48
48

48

F2.

Deaths by five-year age group (male)

C/E

48

F3.

Deaths by five-year age group (female)

C/E

48

F4.

Life table l(x) values by sex

C/E

48

F5.

Life expectancy at age (x) by sex

C/E

48

12.6

Fertility indicators by age, five-year periods

F1.

Births by five-year age group of mother

C/E

48

F2.

Age-specific fertility rates

C/E

48

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

AIDS mortality

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

AIDS mortality

1980, 1985,.2095,
2100

Total, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19, 024, 5-14, 15+, 15-17, 1524, 15-49, 15-59, 15-64,
20+, 20-64, 20-69, 25+,
25-69, 50+, 60+, 65+, 70+,
75+, 80+, 85+, 90+

AIDS mortality

1980, 1985,. 2095,


2100
1980, 1985,. 2095,
2100
1980, 1985,. 2095,
2100

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

AIDS mortality
AIDS mortality

1980, 1981,.2100
1980, 1981,.2100
1980, 1981,.2100

1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100
1980-1985,.20952100

0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,


80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+
0-4, 5-9, 75-79, 80+,
80-84, 95-99, 100+

0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+


0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+
0-4, 5-9,.75-79, 80+
0, 1, 5, 10,.80, 85
0, 1, 5, 10,.95, 100

15-19, 20-24,45-49
15-19, 20-24,45-49

65

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


66

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

Interpolated annual demographic indicators and interpolated annual populations by single age
F1.

Interpolated demographic indicators


Mortality indicators
Total number of deaths by sex

E
SA

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Crude death rate

Life expectancy at birth by sex

Infant deaths (under age 1)

Infant mortality rate, q(1)

Survivors to age 1

Under-five mortality, q(5)

197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270

Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1980, 1981,.2099,
2100

---------------

Fertility indicators
Births (both sexes)

Crude birth rate

Total fertility

Natural change indicators


Total population natural change (i.e.,
Births-Deaths)
Rate of natural increase

E
E

197
270
197
270
197
270

Medium-fertility

197
270
197
270

Medium-fertility

197
270
197
270

Medium-fertility

197
270
197

Medium-fertility

Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

Medium-fertility

1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100

-------

-----

International migration indicators


Net number of migrants (both sexes)

Net migration rate

Population change indicators (including migration)


Total population change per year (i.e.,
E
Births-Deaths+Migrations)
Annual rate of population change
E

Medium-fertility

Medium-fertility

1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,

-----

-----

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1

F2.
F2A.

F2B.

Number
of
countries
or areas
270
197
270

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Medium-fertility

Periods covered
2100
1950, 1951,.2099,
2100

Total population annual doubling time

Interpolated population indicators


Interpolated population by broad age
group and by sex

197
270

Medium-fertility

1950, 1951, 2099,


2100

Interpolated total population by sex

Medium-fertility

Interpolated total urban population

197
270
197

Percentage of total population by broad


age group and by sex

1950, 1951, 2099,


2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100

197
270

Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

Age groups

---

Total alive between birth


and age 1, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19,
0-24, 5-14, pre-primary
school ages (3-4, 3-5, 3-6,
4-5, 4-6), primary school
ages (5-10, 5-11, 6-9, 6-10,
6-11, 6-12, 7-10, 7-12),
secondary school ages (1116, 11-17, 11-18, 12-14,
12-16, 12-17, 12-18, 1317, 13-18, 13-19), school
ages (15-17, 18-23), 15-24,
15-49, 15-59, 15-64, 2064, 20-69, 25-49, 25-64,
25-69, 15+, 16+, 17+, 18+,
20+, 21+, 25+, 50+, 60+,
65+, 70+, 75+, 80+, 85+,
90+, etc.
----Total alive between birth
and age 1, 0-4, 0-14, 0-19,
0-24, 5-14, pre-primary
school ages (3-4, 3-5, 3-6,
4-5, 4-6), primary school
ages (5-10, 5-11, 6-9, 6-10,
6-11, 6-12, 7-10, 7-12),
secondary school ages (1116, 11-17, 11-18, 12-14,
12-16, 12-17, 12-18, 1317, 13-18, 13-19), school
ages (15-17, 18-23), 15-24,
15-49, 15-59, 15-64, 2064, 20-69, 25-49, 25-64,
25-69, 15+, 16+, 17+, 18+,
20+, 21+, 25+, 50+, 60+,

67

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


68

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups
65+, 70+, 75+, 80+, 85+,
90+, etc.

F2C.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Interpolated percentage urban


population

195

Interpolated total population density

197
270

Medium-fertility

197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270
197
270

Medium-fertility

Interpolated population ratios


Total dependency ratio (<15 &
65+)/(15-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
65+)/(20-64)
Total dependency ratio (<20 &
70+)/(20-69)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
65+)/(25-64)
Total dependency ratio (<25 &
70+)/(25-69)
Child dependency ratio <15/(15-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-64)
Child dependency ratio <20/(20-69)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-64)
Child dependency ratio <25/(25-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(15-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(20-64)
Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(20-69)
Old-age dependency ratio 65+/(25-64)

E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E

Old-age dependency ratio 70+/(25-69)


E

197
270

Medium-fertility

Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility
Medium-fertility

1950, 1951, 2099,


2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100
1950, 1951, 2099,
2100

-----

-------------------------------

TABLE 2. CONTENTS OF DATASETS IN DIGITAL FORM


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Dataset
and File

Indicators

CDROM /
DVD

Edition1

Number
of
countries
or areas

Projection variants or
scenarios
(starting in 2010)

Periods covered

Age groups

1950, 1951,.1994

0, 1, 2, 79, 80+

1995, 1996,.2100

0, 1, 2, 79, 80+, 81
99, 100+

1950, 1951,.1994

0, 1, 2, 79, 80+

1995, 1996,.2100

0, 1, 2, 79, 80+, 81
99, 100+

1950, 1951,.1994

0, 1, 2, 79, 80+

1995, 1996,.2100

0, 1, 2, 79, 80+, 81
99, 100+

Interpolated annual populations by single age


F3.

F4.

F5.

Population by single age (both sexes)

Population by single age (male)

Population by single age (female)

197
270

197
270

197
270

Medium-fertility

Medium-fertility

Medium-fertility

Note: (1) CD-ROM or DVD editions are: C = Comprehensive (CD-ROM), E = Extended (DVD), SA = Special Aggregates (DVD)
Datasets 11 to 12 present, in addition to the default AIDS mortality scenario (medium), three other AIDS scenarios for 48 countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic: the
No-AIDS scenario applies the mortality likely to be exhibited by the non-infected population to the whole population, thus excluding the direct impacts of the epidemic. The estimates associated with the No-AIDS scenario (that is, the figures for 1980-2010) differ from the estimates of the other variants because AIDS started affecting the populations in the
majority of the highly-affected countries around 1980. By comparing these results with those of the estimates and medium variant that include explicitly the effects of the
HIV/AIDS epidemic, the user can infer the impact of the epidemic.

69

70

TABLE 3. DATA FILES IN DATABASE FORMAT INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED DVD EDITION
(similar structure for Special Agreggates DVD but different set of records and only for medium fertility variant)
Topic / Data file

Description

Data
file
format1
CSV
&
DAT

Number
of
indicators2
29

Number
of records
279

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

WPP2010_F01_Locations.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Location list with codes (numerical


and ISO3), description, major area,
region and development group;
countries with explicit HIV/AIDS
mortality modelling in WPP 2010
revision, HIV prevalence rate (%)
in population aged 15-49 years in
2009 (UNAIDS, 2010) and by
prevalence group, peak of HIV
epidemic (year and value for
maximum prevalence between
1980-2009), comparison for 2007
HIV prevalence rate between
UNAIDS 2008 and 2010 revisions.

WPP2010_F02_MetaInfo.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Latest data sources (summary, type


of data and reference date) used to
derive estimates for total population,
fertility, mortality and migrations by
countries or areas (includes
information about method used to
derive mortality estimates, age
mortality pattern and child mortality).

CSV
&
DAT

43

279

All period indicators (total fertility,


net reproduction rate, crude birth
rate, births, mean age of
childbearing, life expectancy at
birth (by sex), infant mortality rate,
under-five mortality, crude death
rate, total number of deaths (by
sex) and by broad age group,
percentage total deaths by broad
age group and by sex, probability
of dying between birth and the age
of 40 or 60 years (by sex), adult
probability of dying between age
15 and 50 or 60 (by sex), life
expectancy at age 15, 60 and 80
(by sex), net migration rate, net
number of migrants, average
annual rate of population change,

CSV
&
DAT

172

66,847

DB01. Period indicators


WPP2010_DB01_Period_Indicators.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE 3. DATA FILES IN DATABASE FORMAT INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED DVD EDITION
(similar structure for Special Agreggates DVD but different set of records and only for medium fertility variant)
Topic / Data file

Description

Data
file
format1

Number
of
indicators2

CSV
&
DAT

332,880

CSV
&
DAT

171

60,636

CSV
&
DAT

196

60,389

CSV
&
DAT

114

60,389

Number
of records

rate of natural increase, sex ratio at


birth) by major area, region and
country, for estimates and all 9
projection variants or scenarios,
1950-2100. Data only for 19802100 for AIDS scenarios.
DB02. Stock indicators
WPP2010_DB02_Populations_Annual.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_DB02_Populations_Broad_Age_Groups.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_DB02_Stock_Indicators.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_DB02_Stock_Indicators_SexRatios.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

71

Total population (by sex and both


sexes combined), average annual
rate of population change, and
population density by major area,
region and country, for estimates
and all 9 projection variants or
scenarios, annually for 1950-2100.
Data only for 1980-2100 for AIDS
scenarios.
Total population by broad age
groups (by sex and both sexes
combined) by major area, region
and country, for estimates and all 9
projection variants or scenarios,
1950-2100. Data only for 19802100 for AIDS scenarios.
Stock indicators: total population
by sex, dependency ratios (total,
child, old-age) for different age
groups, median age, population
density, percentage by broad age
group and by sex, by major area,
region and country, for estimates
and all 9 projection variants or
scenarios, 1950-2100. Data only
for 1980-2100 for AIDS scenarios.
Stock indicators: sex ratio (M/F)
and feminity ratio (F/M) by broad
age groups, by major area, region
and country, for estimates and all 9
projection variants or scenarios,
1950-2100. Data only for 19802100 for AIDS scenarios.

72

TABLE 3. DATA FILES IN DATABASE FORMAT INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED DVD EDITION
(similar structure for Special Agreggates DVD but different set of records and only for medium fertility variant)
Topic / Data file

DB03. Population by age and sex, five-year periods

WPP2010_DB03_Population_Quinquennial.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB03_Population_By_Sex_Quinquennial.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB03_Population_By_Age_Quinquennial.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

DB04. Population by age and sex, annual

WPP2010_DB04_Population_Annual.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB04_Population_By_Sex_Annual.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB04_Population_By_Age_Annual.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
DB05. Mortality indicators by age and sex

WPP2010_DB05_Deaths.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB05_Deaths_By_Sex.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB05_Deaths_By_Age.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Description

Data
file
format1

Number
of
indicators2

Number
of records

Population by age group and sex, by major area, region and country, for estimates and all
9 projection variants or scenarios, 1950-2100. Data only for 1980-2100 for AIDS
scenarios.
1
3,763,035
Database format with sex and age
CSV
in rows.
&
DAT
3
1,254,345
Database format with sex in
CSV
column and age in row.
&
DAT
22
182,745
Database format with sex in row
CSV
and age from 0 to 100+ in column.
&
DAT
Population by age group and sex, by major area, region and country, annually for 19502100 (estimates and Medium variant, and 2 AIDS mortality scenarios). Data only for
1980-2100 for AIDS scenarios.
1
3,136,458
Database format with sex and age
CSV
in rows.
&
DAT
3
1,045,486
Database format with sex in
CSV
column and age in row.
&
DAT
22
151,014
Database format with sex in row
CSV
and age from 0 to 100+ in column.
&
DAT
Total deaths by age group and sex, by major area, region and country, for estimates and all
9 projection variants or scenarios,1995-2100. Data only for 1980-2100 for AIDS
scenarios.
1
2,431,935
Database format with sex and age
CSV
in rows.
&
DAT
3
810,645
Database format with sex in
CSV
column and age in row.
&
DAT
22
143,055
Database format with sex in row
CSV
and age from 0 to 100+ in column.
&
DAT

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE 3. DATA FILES IN DATABASE FORMAT INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED DVD EDITION
(similar structure for Special Agreggates DVD but different set of records and only for medium fertility variant)
Topic / Data file

WPP2010_DB05_Life_Table.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_DB05_Life_Table_lx_By_Age.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_DB05_Life_Table_ex_By_Age.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

DB06. Fertility indicators by age

WPP2010_DB06_Fertility_Indicators.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary
WPP2010_DB06_Fertility_Indicators_By_Age.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Data
Number
Number
file
of
of records
1
2
format
indicators
Life Table (by sex and both sexes combined) by major area, region and country, 19952100 (estimates, medium variant with AIDS mortality and No-AIDS mortality scenarios).
Data only for 1980-2100 for AIDS scenarios.
2
474,012
Life table survivors, l(x), and life
CSV
expectancy at exact age, e(x), by
&
sex and both sexes combined.
DAT
Database format with sex and age
in rows.
18
21,546
Life table survivors, l(x), at exact
CSV
age (x) by sex and both sexes
&
combined. Database format with
DAT
sex in row and age from 0 to 85 in
column.
21
21,546
Life expectancy at exact age, e(x),
CSV
by sex and both sexes combined.
&
Database format with sex in row
DAT
and age from 0 to 100 in column.
Births by age group of mother and age-specific fertility rates, by major area, region and
country, for estimates and all 9 projection variants or scenarios, 1995-2100. Data only for
1980-2100 for AIDS scenarios.
2
294,987
Database format with indicators in
CSV
column and age groups in row.
&
DAT
14
42,141
Database format with indicators by
CSV
age group in column.
&
DAT
Description

INT. Interpolated annual indicators and populations by single age


WPP2010_INT_F1_Annual_Demographic_Indicators.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_INT_F2A_Annual_Population_Indicators.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Interpolated demographic
indicators by major area, region
and country, annually for 19502100 (estimates and all 9 projection
variants or scenarios).
Interpolated total population by
broad age group and by sex, and
urban population, by major area,
region and country, annually for
1950-2100 (medium fertility and
AIDS mortality variants)

CSV
&
DAT

21

34,800

CSV
&
DAT

175

35,032

73

74

TABLE 3. DATA FILES IN DATABASE FORMAT INCLUDED IN THE EXTENDED DVD EDITION
(similar structure for Special Agreggates DVD but different set of records and only for medium fertility variant)
Topic / Data file
WPP2010_INT_F2B_Annual Population Indicators_Percentage.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

WPP2010_INT_F2C_Annual_Population_Indicators_DependencyRatios.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Description

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Percentage of total population by


broad age group by sex,
dependency ratios (total, child, oldage) for different age groups and
by sex, percentage urban and
population density, by major area,
region and country, annually for
1950-2100 (medium fertility and
AIDS mortality variants)
Dependency ratios (total, child,
old-age) for different age groups
and by sex, and by major area,
region and country, annually
interpolated for 1950-2100
(medium fertility and AIDS
mortality variants)

Data
file
format1
CSV
&
DAT

Number
of
indicators2
176

CSV
&
DAT

60

Number
of records
50,036

35,032

Population (by sex and both sexes combined) interpolated by single years of age and
single calendar years, by major area, region and country, annually for 1950-2100
(estimates and medium variant).
WPP2010_INT_F3_Population_Annual_Single_Medium.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Database format with sex and age


in rows.

WPP2010_INT_F3_Population_By_Sex_Annual_Single_Medium.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Database format with sex in


column and age in row.

WPP2010_INT_F3_Population_By_Age_Annual_Single_Medium.csv
and .dat file with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary

Database format with sex in row


and age from 0 to 100+ in column.

CSV
&
DAT
CSV
&
DAT
CSV
&
DAT

10,148,814

3,382,938

102

106,002

(1) File format is: CSV for ASCII comma delimited data files (.csv) with field names in header. An ASCII version in fixed-format (.DAT) is also
included with Stata/SPSS/SAS dictionary.
(2) Number of indicators does not include descriptive fields like codes and names for location, projection variant/scenario, calendar year or period, age
groups and/or sex

UNITED NATIONS

NATIONS UNIES

POPULATION DIVISION
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision CD-ROM or DVD Edition
Date: ____________________________
Order Form
CD-ROM or DVD requested
Disk Description

Price in
US$

Quantity

Total
Price in
US$

[ ]

Comprehensive dataset (Excel format) CD-ROM

$ 100

[ ]

Extended dataset (Excel and ASCII formats) DVD

$ 400

[ ]

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$1200

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Notes
1.

Data contained in the above datasets are copyrighted by the United Nations. No portion of the data files
contained on CD-ROM or DVD can be reproduced, distributed or used to prepare derivative works or for any
other purpose without the express permission of the United Nations, to be obtained from the Secretary of the
United Nations Publications Board. For further information, please contact the Director, Population
Division/DESA, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A., telephone no. 1-212-963-3179; fax no. 1-212963-2147.

2.

The order form should be accompanied by a cheque or an international money order in US dollars drawn on a
United States Bank for the correct amount, payable to the UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION
and mailed to: The Director, Population Division/DESA, United Nations, DC2-1960, New York, NY 10017,
U.S.A. Credit cards are not accepted.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

75

VII. LIST OF PREVIOUS REVISIONS OF THE WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS

The past and future growth of world populationa long-range view, Population Bulletin of the United
Nations, No. 1December 1951 (United Nations publication, Sales No. 52.XIII.2), pp. 1-12.
The past and future population of the world and its continents and Framework for the future
population estimates, 1950-1980, by world regions, Proceedings of the World Population
Conference, 1954, vol. III (United Nations publication, Sales No. 55.XIII.8), pp. 265-282 and 283328.
The Future Growth of World Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. 66.XIII.2).
World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1973 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.76.XIII.4 and
corrigenda).
World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2000: Summary Report of the 1978
Assessment (ST/ESA/SER.R/33).
Selected Demographic Indicators by Country, 1950-2000: Demographic Estimates and Projections as
Assessed in 1978 (ST/ESA/SER.R/38).
World Population Prospects as Assessed in 1980 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.81.XIII.8).
Demographic Indicators of Countries: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1980 (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.82.XIII.5 and corrigendum).
World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1982 (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.83.XIII.5).
World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1984 (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.86.XIII.3).
World Population Prospects 1988 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.88.XIII.7).
The Sex and Age Distributions of Population: The 1990 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No.
E.90.XIII.33).
World Population Prospects: The 1990 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.91.XIII.4).
The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations: The 1992 Revision (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.93.XIII.3).
World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.93.XIII.7).
The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations: The 1994 Revision (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.95.XIII.2).
World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.95.XIII.16).
The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations: The 1996 Revision (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.98.XIII.2).
World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.98.XIII.5).
World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.99.XIII.9).
World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age Distribution of the World
Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.99.XIII.8).
World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, vol. III, Analytical Report (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.99.XIII.10).
World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.01.XIII.8 and corrigendum).
World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age Distribution of the World
Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.01.XIII.9 and corrigendum).
World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, vol. III, Analytical Report (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.01.XIII.20).
World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.03.XIII.6).

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

77

World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age Distribution of the World
Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.03.XIII.7).
World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, vol. III, Analytical Report (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.03.XIII.10).
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.05.XIII.5).
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age Distribution of the World
Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.05.XIII.6).
World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, vol. III, Analytical Report (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.05.XIII.7).
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.07.XIII.2).
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age Distribution of the World
Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.07.XIII.3).
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, vol. I, Comprehensive Tables (United Nations
publication, Sales No. 10.XIII.2).
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, vol. II, Sex and Age Distribution of the World
Population (United Nations publication, Sales No. 10.XIII.3).

78

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.1. TOTAL POPULATION BY SEX IN 2011 AND SEX RATIO BY COUNTRY IN 2011 (MEDIUM VARIANT)
Population (thousands)
Country or area

Total

Male

Female

World ...................................................................

6 974 036

3 517 256

3 456 781

Afghanistan...........................................................
Albania .................................................................
Algeria ..................................................................
American Samoa...................................................
Andorra.................................................................
Angola ..................................................................
Anguilla ................................................................
Antigua and Barbuda ............................................
Argentina ..............................................................
Armenia ................................................................
Aruba ....................................................................
Australia ...............................................................
Austria ..................................................................

32 358
3 216
35 980
70
86
19 618
16
90
40 765
3 100
108
22 606
8 413

16 740
1 610
18 159
35
45
9 718
8
43
19 941
1 443
51
11 267
4 108

15 618
1 606
17 822
34
41
9 900
8
47
20 823
1 657
57
11 339
4 305

Azerbaijan.............................................................
Bahamas ...............................................................
Bahrain .................................................................
Bangladesh............................................................
Barbados ...............................................................
Belarus..................................................................
Belgium ................................................................
Belize....................................................................
Benin.....................................................................
Bermuda ...............................................................
Bhutan...................................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) ............................
Bosnia and Herzegovina .......................................
Botswana ..............................................................
Brazil ....................................................................
British Virgin Islands............................................
Brunei Darussalam................................................
Bulgaria ................................................................
Burkina Faso.........................................................
Burundi .................................................................
Cambodia..............................................................
Cameroon .............................................................
Canada ..................................................................
Cape Verde ...........................................................
Cayman Islands.....................................................
Central African Republic ......................................
Chad......................................................................
Channel Islands.....................................................
Chile .....................................................................

9 306
347
1 324
150 494
274
9 559
10 754
318
9 100
65
738
10 088
3 752
2 031
196 655
23
406
7 446
16 968
8 575
14 305
20 030
34 350
501
57
4 487
11 525
154
17 270

4 607
170
828
76 155
136
4 444
5 273
157
4 490
32
391
5 033
1 803
1 025
96 745
12
205
3 597
8 425
4 211
7 003
10 000
17 042
248
28
2 210
5 732
75
8 538

4 699
177
495
74 338
138
5 116
5 482
161
4 610
33
347
5 055
1 949
1 006
99 910
12
201
3 849
8 543
4 364
7 303
10 030
17 308
252
29
2 276
5 794
79
8 731

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Sex ratio
(males per
100 females)

102
107
100
102
104
109
98
99
92
96
87
90
99
95
98
96
167
102
98
87
96
97
97
95
113
100
93
102
97
103
102
93
99
96
96
100
98
98
98
97
99
96
98

79

TABLE S.1. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

Total

China.....................................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR .......................................
China, Macao SAR ...............................................
Colombia ..............................................................
Comoros ...............................................................
Congo ...................................................................
Cook Islands .........................................................
Costa Rica.............................................................
Cte d'Ivoire .........................................................
Croatia ..................................................................
Cuba......................................................................
Cyprus...................................................................
Czech Republic.....................................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ................................
Dem. Republic of the Congo ................................
Denmark ...............................................................
Djibouti.................................................................
Dominica ..............................................................
Dominican Republic .............................................
Ecuador.................................................................
Egypt.....................................................................
El Salvador ...........................................................
Equatorial Guinea .................................................
Eritrea ...................................................................
Estonia ..................................................................
Ethiopia.................................................................
Faeroe Islands .......................................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)..................................
Fiji ........................................................................
Finland..................................................................
France ...................................................................
French Guiana.......................................................
French Polynesia...................................................
Gabon ...................................................................
Gambia .................................................................
Georgia .................................................................
Germany ...............................................................
Ghana....................................................................
Gibraltar................................................................
Greece...................................................................
Greenland .............................................................
Grenada.................................................................
Guadeloupe...........................................................
Guam ....................................................................
Guatemala.............................................................

80

1 347 565
7 122
556
46 927
754
4 140
20
4 727
20 153
4 396
11 254
1 117
10 534
24 451
67 758
5 573
906
68
10 056
14 666
82 537
6 227
720
5 415
1 341
84 734
49
3
868
5 385
63 126
237
274
1 534
1 776
4 329
82 163
24 966
29
11 390
57
105
463
182
14 757

Male

699 631
3 372
267
23 080
380
2 072
10
2 399
10 259
2 116
5 660
570
5 171
11 999
33 701
2 764
453
34
5 043
7 344
41 442
2 955
369
2 669
618
42 172
25
1
443
2 644
30 725
119
140
770
877
2 039
40 293
12 701
15
5 637
30
52
218
93
7 193

Female

647 934
3 750
289
23 847
374
2 068
10
2 327
9 894
2 279
5 594
546
5 363
12 453
34 057
2 809
453
34
5 013
7 322
41 095
3 272
351
2 746
722
42 562
23
2
425
2 741
32 401
118
134
765
899
2 290
41 870
12 264
15
5 753
27
52
245
90
7 564

Sex ratio
(males per
100 females)

108
90
92
97
101
100
104
103
104
93
101
104
96
96
99
98
100
100
101
100
101
90
105
97
86
99
108
97
104
96
95
100
105
101
98
89
96
104
101
98
112
100
89
103
95

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.1. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

Guinea...................................................................
Guinea-Bissau.......................................................
Guyana..................................................................
Haiti ......................................................................
Holy See ...............................................................
Honduras...............................................................
Hungary ................................................................
Iceland ..................................................................
India......................................................................
Indonesia...............................................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).....................................
Iraq........................................................................
Ireland...................................................................
Isle of Man............................................................
Israel .....................................................................
Italy ......................................................................
Jamaica .................................................................
Japan .....................................................................
Jordan ...................................................................
Kazakhstan............................................................
Kenya....................................................................
Kiribati..................................................................
Kuwait ..................................................................
Kyrgyzstan............................................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic .................................
Latvia....................................................................
Lebanon ................................................................
Lesotho .................................................................
Liberia...................................................................
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya........................................
Liechtenstein.........................................................
Lithuania...............................................................
Luxembourg..........................................................
Madagascar...........................................................
Malawi..................................................................
Malaysia ...............................................................
Maldives ...............................................................
Mali ......................................................................
Malta.....................................................................
Marshall Islands....................................................
Martinique ............................................................
Mauritania.............................................................
Mauritius...............................................................
Mayotte.................................................................
Mexico..................................................................

Total

10 222
1 547
756
10 124
0
7 755
9 966
324
1 241 492
242 326
74 799
32 665
4 526
83
7 562
60 789
2 751
126 497
6 330
16 207
41 610
101
2 818
5 393
6 288
2 243
4 259
2 194
4 129
6 423
36
3 307
516
21 315
15 381
28 859
320
15 840
418
55
407
3 542
1 307
211
114 793

Male

5 166
767
380
5 022
0
3 877
4 732
163
641 015
120 819
37 933
16 393
2 265
41
3 733
29 764
1 354
61 609
3 255
7 785
20 783
50
1 680
2 660
3 139
1 032
2 079
1 080
2 075
3 235
18
1 536
257
10 626
7 700
14 634
161
7 918
207
28
190
1 780
645
105
56 612

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Female

5 056
780
376
5 102
0
3 878
5 234
161
600 477
121 507
36 866
16 272
2 261
42
3 829
31 024
1 397
64 888
3 075
8 422
20 827
51
1 138
2 733
3 149
1 211
2 180
1 113
2 053
3 188
18
1 771
259
10 689
7 681
14 225
159
7 921
211
27
217
1 762
662
106
58 181

Sex ratio
(males per
100 females)

102
98
101
98
88
100
90
102
107
99
103
101
100
99
97
96
97
95
106
92
100
97
148
97
100
85
95
97
101
101
98
87
99
99
100
103
102
100
98
102
88
101
98
99
97

81

TABLE S.1. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

Total

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...................................


Monaco .................................................................
Mongolia...............................................................
Montenegro...........................................................
Montserrat.............................................................
Morocco................................................................
Mozambique .........................................................
Myanmar...............................................................
Namibia ................................................................
Nauru ....................................................................
Nepal.....................................................................
Netherlands...........................................................
Netherlands Antilles .............................................
New Caledonia .....................................................
New Zealand.........................................................
Nicaragua..............................................................
Niger .....................................................................
Nigeria ..................................................................
Niue ......................................................................
Northern Mariana Islands .....................................
Norway .................................................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory .............................
Oman ....................................................................
Pakistan.................................................................
Palau .....................................................................
Panama .................................................................
Papua New Guinea ...............................................
Paraguay ...............................................................
Peru ......................................................................
Philippines ............................................................
Poland ...................................................................
Portugal.................................................................
Puerto Rico ...........................................................
Qatar .....................................................................
Republic of Korea.................................................
Republic of Moldova ............................................
Runion.................................................................
Romania................................................................
Russian Federation................................................
Rwanda .................................................................
Saint Helena..........................................................
Saint Kitts and Nevis ............................................
Saint Lucia............................................................
Saint Pierre and Miquelon ....................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.............................

82

112
35
2 800
632
6
32 273
23 930
48 337
2 324
10
30 486
16 665
203
255
4 415
5 870
16 069
162 471
1
61
4 925
4 152
2 846
176 745
21
3 571
7 014
6 568
29 400
94 852
38 299
10 690
3 746
1 870
48 391
3 545
856
21 436
142 836
10 943
4
53
176
6
109

Male

57
17
1 382
310
3
15 812
11 657
23 819
1 155
5
15 121
8 274
94
127
2 169
2 903
8 085
82 271
1
30
2 466
2 108
1 679
89 808
11
1 799
3 578
3 312
14 733
47 567
18 471
5 180
1 802
1 419
24 121
1 682
419
10 399
66 063
5 374
2
26
86
3
55

Female

55
18
1 418
322
3
16 461
12 273
24 517
1 169
5
15 365
8 391
109
127
2 246
2 967
7 984
80 199
1
31
2 459
2 045
1 167
86 937
9
1 772
3 436
3 256
14 667
47 285
19 828
5 510
1 944
451
24 270
1 863
437
11 037
76 773
5 569
2
27
90
3
54

Sex ratio
(males per
100 females)

104
95
97
96
98
96
95
97
99
98
98
99
86
100
97
98
101
103
103
95
100
103
144
103
118
102
104
102
100
101
93
94
93
315
99
90
96
94
86
96
98
98
95
98
102

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.1. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

Samoa ...................................................................
San Marino ...........................................................
Sao Tome and Principe .........................................
Saudi Arabia .........................................................
Senegal .................................................................
Serbia....................................................................
Seychelles .............................................................
Sierra Leone..........................................................
Singapore ..............................................................
Slovakia ................................................................
Slovenia ................................................................
Solomon Islands....................................................
Somalia .................................................................
South Africa..........................................................
Spain .....................................................................
Sri Lanka ..............................................................
Sudan ....................................................................
Suriname...............................................................
Swaziland .............................................................
Sweden .................................................................
Switzerland ...........................................................
Syrian Arab Republic............................................
Tajikistan ..............................................................
TFYR Macedonia .................................................
Thailand................................................................
Timor-Leste ..........................................................
Togo......................................................................
Tokelau .................................................................
Tonga....................................................................
Trinidad and Tobago.............................................
Tunisia ..................................................................
Turkey...................................................................
Turkmenistan ........................................................
Turks and Caicos Islands ......................................
Tuvalu...................................................................
Uganda..................................................................
Ukraine .................................................................
United Arab Emirates ...........................................
United Kingdom ...................................................
United Republic of Tanzania ................................
United States of America ......................................
United States Virgin Islands .................................
Uruguay ................................................................
Uzbekistan ............................................................
Vanuatu.................................................................

Total

184
32
169
28 083
12 768
9 854
87
5 997
5 188
5 472
2 035
552
9 557
50 460
46 455
21 045
44 632
529
1 203
9 441
7 702
20 766
6 977
2 064
69 519
1 154
6 155
1
105
1 346
10 594
73 640
5 105
39
10
34 509
45 190
7 891
62 417
46 218
313 085
109
3 380
27 760
246

Male

95
16
83
15 507
6 332
4 878
44
2 931
2 615
2 661
996
286
4 740
25 002
22 947
10 383
22 487
265
592
4 705
3 788
10 505
3 429
1 034
34 157
588
3 048
1
52
652
5 295
36 724
2 513
20
5
17 253
20 787
5 482
30 734
23 094
154 562
52
1 632
13 799
125

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

Female

89
16
85
12 576
6 435
4 976
42
3 066
2 573
2 811
1 039
267
4 817
25 458
23 507
10 662
22 145
264
611
4 736
3 914
10 261
3 547
1 030
35 361
566
3 107
1
52
694
5 299
36 916
2 592
20
5
17 257
24 403
2 409
31 683
23 125
158 524
57
1 748
13 962
121

Sex ratio
(males per
100 females)

107
97
98
123
98
98
105
96
102
95
96
107
98
98
98
97
102
101
97
99
97
102
97
100
97
104
98
91
100
94
100
99
97
101
90
100
85
228
97
100
98
90
93
99
104

83

TABLE S.1. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

Total

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) .....................


Viet Nam ..............................................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands.....................................
Western Sahara .....................................................
Yemen...................................................................
Zambia..................................................................
Zimbabwe .............................................................

29 437
88 792
13
548
24 800
13 475
12 754

Male

14 766
43 906
7
290
12 481
6 755
6 291

Female

14 671
44 886
7
259
12 319
6 720
6 463

Sex ratio
(males per
100 females)

101
98
100
112
101
101
97

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

84

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.2. TOTAL POPULATION BY COUNTRY, 1950, 2011, 2025, 2050 AND 2100 (MEDIUM VARIANT)
Population (thousands)
Country or area

1950

2011

2025

2050

2100

World...........................................................................

2 532 229

6 974 036

8 002 978

9 306 128

10 124 926

Afghanistan ..................................................................
Albania .........................................................................
Algeria..........................................................................
American Samoa ..........................................................
Andorra ........................................................................
Angola ..........................................................................
Anguilla........................................................................
Antigua and Barbuda....................................................
Argentina......................................................................
Armenia........................................................................
Aruba............................................................................
Australia .......................................................................
Austria ..........................................................................
Azerbaijan ....................................................................
Bahamas .......................................................................
Bahrain .........................................................................
Bangladesh ...................................................................
Barbados.......................................................................
Belarus..........................................................................
Belgium ........................................................................
Belize............................................................................
Benin ............................................................................
Bermuda .......................................................................
Bhutan ..........................................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of).....................................
Bosnia and Herzegovina...............................................
Botswana ......................................................................
Brazil ............................................................................
British Virgin Islands ...................................................
Brunei Darussalam .......................................................
Bulgaria ........................................................................

8 151
1 215
8 753
19
6
4 148
5
46
17 150
1 354
38
8 177
6 936
2 896
79
116
37 895
211
7 745
8 628
69
2 255
37
168
2 714
2 661
413
53 975
7
48
7 251

32 358
3 216
35 980
70
86
19 618
16
90
40 765
3 100
108
22 606
8 413
9 306
347
1 324
150 494
274
9 559
10 754
318
9 100
65
738
10 088
3 752
2 031
196 655
23
406
7 446

47 602
3 305
42 043
88
105
27 767
18
101
45 391
3 133
111
26 575
8 562
10 563
400
1 588
175 195
281
9 097
11 126
409
13 025
66
867
12 478
3 566
2 283
216 238
26
495
6 733

76 250
2 990
46 522
120
137
42 334
18
112
50 560
2 931
104
31 385
8 427
11 578
445
1 801
194 353
264
8 001
11 587
529
21 734
65
962
16 769
2 952
2 503
222 843
28
602
5 459

110 879
1 863
39 983
158
162
56 052
16
108
49 201
2 335
88
35 908
7 805
11 976
449
1 580
157 134
223
6 760
12 588
555
36 752
65
782
20 021
1 877
2 476
177 349
27
667
4 131

Burkina Faso ................................................................


Burundi.........................................................................
Cambodia .....................................................................
Cameroon .....................................................................
Canada..........................................................................
Cape Verde...................................................................
Cayman Islands ............................................................

4 284
2 456
4 346
4 466
13 737
178
6

16 968
8 575
14 305
20 030
34 350
501
57

25 475
10 791
16 687
26 440
38 585
568
62

46 721
13 703
18 965
38 472
43 642
632
62

96 367
14 587
16 661
53 693
48 290
520
59

Central African Republic..............................................


Chad .............................................................................
Channel Islands ............................................................
Chile .............................................................................

1 327
2 429
102
6 082

4 487
11 525
154
17 270

5 850
16 387
157
19 102

8 392
27 252
152
20 059

10 954
43 648
156
17 185

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

85

TABLE S.2. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

1950

2050

2100

China ............................................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR ...............................................
China, Macao SAR.......................................................
Colombia ......................................................................
Comoros .......................................................................
Congo ...........................................................................
Cook Islands.................................................................
Costa Rica ....................................................................
Cte d'Ivoire .................................................................
Croatia ..........................................................................
Cuba .............................................................................
Cyprus ..........................................................................
Czech Republic.............................................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea........................................
Dem. Republic of the Congo ........................................
Denmark .......................................................................
Djibouti ........................................................................
Dominica ......................................................................
Dominican Republic.....................................................
Ecuador ........................................................................
Egypt ............................................................................
El Salvador ...................................................................
Equatorial Guinea.........................................................
Eritrea...........................................................................
Estonia..........................................................................
Ethiopia ........................................................................
Faeroe Islands...............................................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) .........................................
Fiji ..............................................................................
Finland..........................................................................
France...........................................................................
French Guiana ..............................................................
French Polynesia ..........................................................
Gabon ...........................................................................
Gambia .........................................................................
Georgia.........................................................................
Germany .......................................................................
Ghana ...........................................................................
Gibraltar .......................................................................
Greece ..........................................................................
Greenland .....................................................................

550 771
1 974
196
12 000
156
808
15
966
2 630
3 850
5 920
494
8 876
9 737
12 184
4 268
62
51
2 380
3 387
21 514
2 200
226
1 141
1 101
18 434
32
2
289
4 009
41 832
25
61
469
271
3 527
68 376
4 981
20
7 566
23

1 347 565
7 122
556
46 927
754
4 140
20
4 727
20 153
4 396
11 254
1 117
10 534
24 451
67 758
5 573
906
68
10 056
14 666
82 537
6 227
720
5 415
1 341
84 734
49
3
868
5 385
63 126
237
274
1 534
1 776
4 329
82 163
24 966
29
11 390
57

1 395 256
8 160
702
54 693
1 041
5 568
22
5 508
27 122
4 253
11 100
1 263
10 800
25 825
95 366
5 819
1 166
69
11 626
17 175
100 909
6 849
1 003
7 613
1 316
109 969
52
3
941
5 585
67 210
330
309
1 982
2 524
3 922
80 332
33 399
29
11 603
56

1 295 604
9 305
824
61 764
1 700
8 801
24
6 001
40 674
3 859
9 898
1 347
10 638
26 382
148 523
5 920
1 620
65
12 942
19 549
123 452
7 607
1 493
11 568
1 233
145 187
55
3
1 017
5 611
72 442
506
330
2 784
4 036
3 186
74 781
49 107
28
11 647
50

941 042
10 355
810
58 137
3 047
14 224
21
5 019
56 412
3 317
7 022
1 192
10 324
24 552
212 113
6 032
1 923
53
12 231
18 319
123 227
6 783
2 054
15 496
1 145
150 140
55
3
1 005
5 842
80 288
721
281
3 776
6 084
2 367
70 392
67 230
25
11 109
41

Grenada ........................................................................
Guadeloupe...................................................................
Guam ............................................................................
Guatemala.....................................................................

77
210
60
3 146

105
463
182
14 757

109
486
212
20 527

95
476
245
31 595

75
424
252
46 036

86

2011

2025

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.2. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

1950

2050

2100

Guinea ..........................................................................
Guinea-Bissau ..............................................................
Guyana .........................................................................
Haiti..............................................................................
Holy See .......................................................................
Honduras ......................................................................
Hungary........................................................................
Iceland ..........................................................................
India..............................................................................
Indonesia ......................................................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).............................................
Iraq ..............................................................................
Ireland ..........................................................................
Isle of Man ...................................................................
Israel.............................................................................
Italy ..............................................................................
Jamaica.........................................................................
Japan.............................................................................
Jordan ...........................................................................
Kazakhstan ...................................................................
Kenya ...........................................................................
Kiribati .........................................................................
Kuwait ..........................................................................
Kyrgyzstan ...................................................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic.........................................
Latvia............................................................................
Lebanon........................................................................
Lesotho.........................................................................
Liberia ..........................................................................
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya ...............................................
Liechtenstein ................................................................
Lithuania ......................................................................
Luxembourg .................................................................
Madagascar...................................................................
Malawi..........................................................................
Malaysia .......................................................................
Maldives.......................................................................
Mali ..............................................................................
Malta ............................................................................
Marshall Islands ...........................................................
Martinique ....................................................................

3 094
518
407
3 221
1
1 487
9 338
143
371 857
74 837
17 414
5 719
2 913
55
1 258
46 367
1 403
82 199
449
6 703
6 077
26
152
1 740
1 683
1 949
1 443
734
911
1 029
14
2 567
296
4 084
2 881
6 110
74
4 638
312
13
222

10 222
1 547
756
10 124
0
7 755
9 966
324
1 241 492
242 326
74 799
32 665
4 526
83
7 562
60 789
2 751
126 497
6 330
16 207
41 610
101
2 818
5 393
6 288
2 243
4 259
2 194
4 129
6 423
36
3 307
516
21 315
15 381
28 859
320
15 840
418
55
407

14 312
2 057
785
11 947
0
9 939
9 741
375
1 458 958
271 851
83 142
48 885
5 173
87
9 247
61 114
2 848
122 771
7 906
18 335
59 054
124
3 700
6 355
7 429
2 121
4 624
2 487
5 824
7 465
40
3 131
608
31 218
24 213
35 186
372
23 519
430
65
415

23 006
3 185
766
14 178
0
12 939
9 243
431
1 692 008
293 456
85 344
83 357
6 038
85
12 029
59 158
2 569
108 549
9 882
21 210
96 887
156
5 164
7 768
8 384
1 902
4 678
2 788
9 660
8 773
45
2 813
708
53 561
49 719
43 455
405
42 130
415
75
382

36 664
5 518
693
14 566
0
13 789
8 672
480
1 550 899
254 178
62 059
145 276
7 046
81
15 312
55 619
2 166
91 330
9 495
24 876
160 009
164
6 371
9 258
6 956
1 650
3 612
2 874
16 535
8 073
50
2 453
740
94 222
129 502
46 946
300
80 506
394
88
301

Mauritania ....................................................................
Mauritius ......................................................................
Mayotte ........................................................................
Mexico..........................................................................

657
493
15
27 866

3 542
1 307
211
114 793

4 742
1 382
305
131 035

7 085
1 367
493
143 925

10 434
1 157
688
127 081

2011

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

2025

87

TABLE S.2. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

1950

2011

2050

2100

Micronesia (Fed. States of)...........................................


Monaco.........................................................................
Mongolia ......................................................................
Montenegro ..................................................................
Montserrat ....................................................................
Morocco .......................................................................
Mozambique.................................................................
Myanmar ......................................................................
Namibia ........................................................................
Nauru............................................................................
Nepal ............................................................................
Netherlands...................................................................
Netherlands Antilles .....................................................
New Caledonia .............................................................
New Zealand ................................................................
Nicaragua .....................................................................
Niger.............................................................................
Nigeria..........................................................................
Niue ..............................................................................
Northern Mariana Islands .............................................
Norway .........................................................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory .....................................
Oman ............................................................................
Pakistan ........................................................................
Palau.............................................................................
Panama .........................................................................
Papua New Guinea .......................................................
Paraguay .......................................................................
Peru ..............................................................................
Philippines....................................................................
Poland...........................................................................
Portugal ........................................................................
Puerto Rico...................................................................
Qatar.............................................................................
Republic of Korea ........................................................
Republic of Moldova....................................................
Runion ........................................................................
Romania .......................................................................
Russian Federation .......................................................
Rwanda.........................................................................
Saint Helena .................................................................

32
20
780
399
14
8 953
6 442
17 158
485
3
8 231
10 027
112
65
1 908
1 295
2 462
37 860
5
7
3 265
932
456
37 542
7
860
1 708
1 473
7 632
18 397
24 824
8 417
2 218
25
19 211
2 341
248
16 311
102 702
2 072
5

112
35
2 800
632
6
32 273
23 930
48 337
2 324
10
30 486
16 665
203
255
4 415
5 870
16 069
162 471
1
61
4 925
4 152
2 846
176 745
21
3 571
7 014
6 568
29 400
94 852
38 299
10 690
3 746
1 870
48 391
3 545
856
21 436
142 836
10 943
4

124
35
3 370
635
7
36 406
32 439
53 194
2 862
11
37 653
17 196
214
302
5 032
6 947
26 171
229 796
1
74
5 408
6 027
3 470
220 609
24
4 279
9 314
8 153
34 057
118 088
38 229
10 476
3 753
2 289
50 229
3 262
973
20 661
139 034
15 784
4

139
36
4 093
604
7
39 200
50 192
55 296
3 599
11
46 495
17 151
198
344
5 678
7 846
55 435
389 615
1
73
6 063
9 727
3 740
274 875
28
5 128
13 549
10 323
38 832
154 939
34 906
9 379
3 657
2 612
47 050
2 661
1 083
18 535
126 188
26 003
4

161
40
4 831
499
7
33 068
77 347
46 941
3 728
10
44 987
17 381
147
334
6 323
7 261
139 209
729 885
1
50
6 964
14 868
2 839
261 271
28
5 170
18 113
11 364
35 911
177 803
29 454
6 754
3 024
2 162
37 221
1 958
1 086
14 839
111 057
42 316
3

Saint Kitts and Nevis ....................................................


Saint Lucia....................................................................
Saint Pierre and Miquelon ............................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines ....................................

46
83
5
67

53
176
6
109

61
196
6
110

68
205
6
113

64
169
6
96

88

2025

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.2. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

1950

2011

2025

Samoa...........................................................................
San Marino ...................................................................
Sao Tome and Principe.................................................
Saudi Arabia.................................................................
Senegal .........................................................................
Serbia............................................................................
Seychelles.....................................................................
Sierra Leone .................................................................
Singapore......................................................................
Slovakia........................................................................
Slovenia........................................................................
Solomon Islands ...........................................................
Somalia.........................................................................
South Africa .................................................................
Spain.............................................................................
Sri Lanka ......................................................................
Sudan............................................................................
Suriname ......................................................................
Swaziland .....................................................................
Sweden .........................................................................
Switzerland...................................................................
Syrian Arab Republic ...................................................
Tajikistan......................................................................
TFYR Macedonia .........................................................
Thailand........................................................................
Timor-Leste..................................................................
Togo .............................................................................
Tokelau.........................................................................
Tonga............................................................................
Trinidad and Tobago ....................................................
Tunisia..........................................................................
Turkey ..........................................................................
Turkmenistan................................................................
Turks and Caicos Islands..............................................
Tuvalu ..........................................................................
Uganda .........................................................................
Ukraine.........................................................................
United Arab Emirates ...................................................
United Kingdom ...........................................................
United Republic of Tanzania........................................
United States of America..............................................

82
13
60
3 121
2 416
6 732
36
1 895
1 022
3 437
1 473
90
2 264
13 683
28 070
8 241
9 190
215
273
7 014
4 668
3 413

184
32
169
28 083
12 768
9 854
87
5 997
5 188
5 472
2 035
552
9 557
50 460
46 455
21 045
44 632
529
1 203
9 441
7 702
20 766

196
34
217
36 226
17 931
9 605
91
7 849
5 801
5 564
2 067
761
14 152
53 751
49 501
22 784
60 811
587
1 404
10 180
8 040
26 009

219
34
299
44 938
28 607
8 797
91
11 088
6 106
5 241
1 994
1 163
28 217
56 757
51 354
23 193
90 962
614
1 679
10 916
7 870
33 051

313
32
356
42 427
44 075
6 956
73
14 154
5 659
4 516
1 846
1 630
72 976
54 477
45 011
19 888
127 621
551
1 813
11 859
7 252
32 623

1 532
1 230
20 607
433
1 395
2
47
636
3 530
21 238
1 211
5
5

6 977
2 064
69 519
1 154
6 155
1
105
1 346
10 594
73 640
5 105
39
10

8 510
2 063
72 884
1 744
8 016
1
115
1 369
11 921
83 984
5 946
44
11

10 745
1 881
71 037
3 006
11 130
1
138
1 288
12 649
91 617
6 639
46
13

11 687
1 391
58 166
4 742
13 558
2
193
1 031
10 891
79 200
5 708
38
20

5 158
37 298
70
50 616
7 650
157 813

34 509
45 190
7 891
62 417
46 218
313 085

52 330
41 819
9 867
67 606
70 879
349 758

94 259
36 074
12 152
72 817
138 312
403 101

171 190
30 254
10 357
75 676
316 338
478 026

United States Virgin Islands .........................................


Uruguay........................................................................
Uzbekistan....................................................................
Vanuatu ........................................................................

27
2 239
6 314
48

109
3 380
27 760
246

104
3 553
32 237
337

92
3 663
35 438
513

80
3 396
29 254
751

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

2050

2100

89

TABLE S.2. (continued)


Population (thousands)
Country or area

1950

2011

2025

2050

2100

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) .............................


Viet Nam ......................................................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands.............................................
Western Sahara.............................................................
Yemen ..........................................................................
Zambia..........................................................................
Zimbabwe.....................................................................

5 094
28 264
7
14
4 316
2 340
2 747

29 437
88 792
13
548
24 800
13 475
12 754

35 285
99 335
13
765
36 698
20 972
16 662

41 821
103 962
13
901
61 577
45 037
20 614

40 507
82 604
11
848
99 032
140 348
21 838

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations

90

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.3. COUNTRIES ACCOUNTING FOR ABOUT 75 PER CENT OF THE WORLD POPULATION ORDERED BY POPULATION SIZE,
ESTIMATES AND MEDIUM VARIANT, 1950, 2011, 2050 AND 2100

Rank

Country

Population in
1950
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

Rank

Country

Population in
2011
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

1.

China

551

21.8

1.

China

1 348

19.3

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.

India
United States of America
Russian Federation
Japan
Indonesia
Germany
Brazil
United Kingdom
Italy
France
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Pakistan
Ukraine
Viet Nam
Spain
Mexico
Poland
Egypt

372
158
103
82
75
68
54
51
46
42
38
38
38
37
28
28
28
25
22

36.4
42.7
46.7
50.0
52.9
55.6
57.8
59.8
61.6
63.2
64.7
66.2
67.7
69.2
70.3
71.4
72.5
73.5
74.3

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

India
United States of America
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Russian Federation
Japan
Mexico
Philippines
Viet Nam
Ethiopia
Egypt
Germany
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Turkey
Thailand
Dem. Republic of the Congo
France
United Kingdom
Italy
South Africa
Republic of Korea

1 241
313
242
197
177
162
150
143
126
115
95
89
85
83
82
75
74
70
68
63
62
61
50
48

37.1
41.6
45.1
47.9
50.4
52.8
54.9
57.0
58.8
60.4
61.8
63.1
64.3
65.5
66.6
67.7
68.8
69.8
70.7
71.6
72.5
73.4
74.1
74.8

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

91

TABLE S.3. (continued)

Rank

Country

1. India
2. China
3. United States of America
4. Nigeria
5. Indonesia
6. Pakistan
7. Brazil
8. Bangladesh
9. Philippines
Dem. Republic of the
10. Congo
11. Ethiopia
12. Mexico
United Republic of
13. Tanzania
14. Russian Federation
15. Egypt
16. Japan
17. Viet Nam
18. Kenya
19. Uganda
20. Turkey
21. Sudan
22. Iran (Islamic Republic of)
23. Iraq
24. Afghanistan
25. Germany
26. United Kingdom
27. France
28. Thailand
29. Colombia

Population in
2050
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

Rank

1 692

18.2

1.

India

1 551

15.3

1 296
403
390
293
275
223
194
155

32.1
36.4
40.6
43.8
46.7
49.1
51.2
52.9

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

China
Nigeria
United States of America
United Republic of Tanzania
Pakistan
Indonesia
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Philippines

941
730
478
316
261
254
212
178

24.6
31.8
36.5
39.7
42.2
44.8
46.9
48.6

149
145
144

54.5
56.0
57.6

10.
11.
12.

Brazil
Uganda
Kenya

177
171
160

50.4
52.1
53.6

138

59.1

13.

Bangladesh

157

55.2

126
123
109
104
97
94
92
91
85
83
76
75
73
72
71
62

60.4
61.7
62.9
64.0
65.1
66.1
67.1
68.0
69.0
69.9
70.7
71.5
72.3
73.0
73.8
74.5

14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.

Ethiopia
Iraq
Zambia
Niger
Malawi
Sudan
Mexico
Egypt
Russian Federation
Afghanistan
Yemen
Burkina Faso
Madagascar
Japan
Viet Nam
Mali

150
145
140
139
130
128
127
123
111
111
99
96
94
91
83
81

56.7
58.1
59.5
60.9
62.1
63.4
64.7
65.9
67.0
68.1
69.0
70.0
70.9
71.8
72.6
73.4

30.
31.

France
Turkey

80
79

74.2
75.0

Country

Population in
2100
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations

92

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.4. THE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND THE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ANNUAL AVERAGE RATES OF CHANGE,
2005-2010, 2045-2050 AND 2095-2100 (MEDIUM VARIANT)
2005-2010

Rank

Country or area

2045-2050
Annual average
rate of change
(percentage)

Rank

Country or area

2095-2100
Annual average
rate of change
(percentage)

Rank

Country or area

Annual average
rate of change
(percentage)

A. Highest rate of change


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Qatar
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Liberia
Kuwait
Western Sahara
Niger
Singapore
Uganda
Eritrea

15.24
12.26
11.09
4.54
3.79
3.72
3.54
3.52
3.24
3.16

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Zambia
Niger
Malawi
Somalia
United Republic of Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Mali
Uganda
Nigeria
Madagascar

2.95
2.71
2.66
2.60
2.42
2.16
2.04
2.01
1.90
1.87

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Zambia
Malawi
Somalia
Niger
United Republic of Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Nigeria
Mali
Guinea-Bissau
Comoros

1.74
1.37
1.31
1.19
1.08
0.91
0.77
0.74
0.72
0.66

Bosnia and Herzegovina


Republic of Moldova
Grenada
Bulgaria
Georgia
Jamaica
Cuba
Albania
Portugal
Martinique

-0.96
-0.92
-0.91
-0.85
-0.80
-0.77
-0.70
-0.67
-0.61
-0.59

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Oman
Albania
Maldives
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Qatar
Cape Verde
Lao People's Dem. Republic
Brazil
Iran (Islamic Republic of)

-0.72
-0.65
-0.64
-0.56
-0.54
-0.53
-0.52
-0.50
-0.49
-0.49

WORLD

0.44

WORLD

0.06

B. Lowest rate of change


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Republic of Moldova
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Georgia
Lithuania
Belarus
Latvia
Romania
Hungary
Croatia

-1.06
-0.64
-0.64
-0.57
-0.55
-0.47
-0.47
-0.26
-0.21
-0.18

WORLD

1.16

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

93

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United
Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

94

TABLE S.5. COUNTRIES ACCOUNTING FOR 75 PER CENT OF THE ANNUAL POPULATION INCREASE IN THE WORLD DURING 1950-1955, 2005-2010 AND 2045-2050
(MEDIUM VARIANT)

Rank Country or area

Annual
population
increase
1950-1955
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

Rank Country or area

Annual
population
increase
2005-2010
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

China
India
United States of America
Brazil
Russian Federation
Indonesia
Japan
Bangladesh
Mexico

11.518
6.904
2.668
1.781
1.740
1.413
1.238
1.110
0.923

23.9
38.3
43.8
47.5
51.1
54.1
56.6
58.9
60.9

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

India
China
Nigeria
Pakistan
United States of America
Indonesia
Brazil
Ethiopia
Dem. Republic of the Congo

16.914
6.748
3.720
2.990
2.713
2.514
1.792
1.737
1.709

21.7
30.4
35.2
39.0
42.5
45.7
48.0
50.3
52.5

10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.

Nigeria
Pakistan
Philippines
Turkey
Viet Nam
Thailand
Egypt
Ukraine
Poland
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Canada
Republic of Korea

0.728
0.713
0.712
0.669
0.613
0.596
0.583
0.560
0.491
0.404
0.400
0.391

62.4
63.9
65.3
66.7
68.0
69.2
70.5
71.6
72.6
73.5
74.3
75.1

10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.

Bangladesh
Philippines
Mexico
Egypt
United Republic of Tanzania
Sudan
Uganda
Kenya
Viet Nam
Turkey
Iraq
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Afghanistan
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Colombia
Madagascar

1.621
1.543
1.388
1.384
1.202
1.028
0.999
0.980
0.937
0.922
0.862
0.848
0.759
0.688
0.681
0.681
0.651
0.566

54.5
56.5
58.3
60.1
61.6
62.9
64.2
65.5
66.7
67.9
69.0
70.1
71.0
71.9
72.8
73.7
74.5
75.2

48.130

100.0

77.848

100.0

WORLD

WORLD

Rank Country or area

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Nigeria
India
United Republic of Tanzania
Dem. Republic of the Congo
United States of America
Uganda
Kenya
Pakistan
Iraq

10. Niger
11. Philippines
12. Malawi

WORLD

Annual
population
increase
2045-2050
(millions)

Cumulated
percentage

7.049
5.498
3.156
2.085
1.929
1.802
1.596
1.527
1.451

17.6
31.4
39.2
44.4
49.3
53.8
57.8
61.6
65.2

1.402
1.269
1.240

68.7
71.9
75.0

40.021

100.0

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: In the period of 1995-2100, populations in 91 countries or areas are projected to increase, while populations in 139 countries or areas are projected to decline. The world's population is projected
to increase by 0.554 million in 2095-2100, which is equal to the population increase in Nigeria in 2095-2100.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.6. TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE LOWEST RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE,
2005-2010, 2045-2050 AND 2095-2100, MEDIUM VARIANT (PERCENTAGE)
2005-2010
Rank

Country or area

2045-2050
Rate of natural
increase
(percentage)

Rank

Country or area

2095-2100
Rate of natural
increase
(percentage)

Rank

Country or area

Rate of natural
increase
(percentage)

A. Highest rate of natural increase


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Niger
Uganda
Mali
Yemen
Mayotte
Burkina Faso
Timor-Leste
Malawi
Iraq
Occupied Palestinian Territory

3.57
3.32
3.21
3.17
3.14
3.12
3.07
3.03
3.02
3.02

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Zambia
Niger
Malawi
Somalia
United Republic of Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Mali
Uganda
Nigeria
Madagascar

2.95
2.71
2.67
2.61
2.44
2.22
2.13
2.04
1.91
1.87

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Zambia
Malawi
Somalia
Niger
United Republic of Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Nigeria
Mali
Guinea-Bissau
Comoros

1.74
1.37
1.31
1.19
1.08
0.91
0.77
0.74
0.72
0.66

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Oman
Albania
Maldives
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Qatar
Cape Verde
Lao People's Dem. Republic
Brazil
Iran (Islamic Republic of)

-0.72
-0.65
-0.64
-0.56
-0.54
-0.53
-0.52
-0.50
-0.49
-0.49

WORLD

0.34

B. Lowest rate of natural increase


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Ukraine
Bulgaria
Latvia
Belarus
Hungary
Lithuania
Russian Federation
Croatia
Germany
Romania

-0.62
-0.51
-0.38
-0.37
-0.36
-0.34
-0.28
-0.22
-0.19
-0.17

WORLD

1.18

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Bosnia and Herzegovina


Portugal
Georgia
Cuba
Bulgaria
Republic of Moldova
Japan
TFYR Macedonia
China
Belarus

-0.93
-0.71
-0.71
-0.69
-0.67
-0.63
-0.56
-0.54
-0.52
-0.52

WORLD

0.34

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York:
United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

95

TABLE S.7. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS,
MEDIUM VARIANT (percentage)
Average annual rate of change (percentage)
Country or area

World

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

1.22

1.16

1.10

1.00

0.89

0.52

0.06

Afghanistan.......................................................
Albania .............................................................
Algeria ..............................................................
American Samoa...............................................
Andorra.............................................................
Angola ..............................................................
Anguilla ............................................................
Antigua and Barbuda ........................................
Argentina ..........................................................
Armenia ............................................................
Aruba ................................................................
Australia ...........................................................
Austria ..............................................................
Azerbaijan.........................................................
Bahamas ...........................................................
Bahrain .............................................................
Bangladesh........................................................
Barbados ...........................................................
Belarus..............................................................
Belgium ............................................................
Belize................................................................
Benin.................................................................
Bermuda ...........................................................
Bhutan...............................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) .........................
Bosnia and Herzegovina ...................................
Botswana ..........................................................
Brazil ................................................................
British Virgin Islands........................................
Brunei Darussalam............................................
Bulgaria ............................................................

3.78
0.45
1.49
1.77
3.73
3.38
4.08
1.55
0.93
-0.07
2.25
1.25
0.56
1.14
1.41
2.55
1.63
0.22
-0.47
0.46
2.29
3.16
0.41
2.87
1.93
0.47
1.30
1.28
1.40
2.09
-0.68

2.58
0.39
1.51
1.66
1.72
2.92
2.47
1.11
0.88
0.17
1.25
1.75
0.39
1.35
1.42
11.09
1.12
0.21
-0.47
0.56
2.07
2.96
0.25
1.93
1.64
-0.11
1.35
0.94
1.11
1.88
-0.64

3.13
0.33
1.35
1.62
1.54
2.70
1.56
0.98
0.85
0.26
0.34
1.32
0.16
1.19
1.14
2.13
1.25
0.22
-0.32
0.29
1.96
2.70
0.19
1.55
1.57
-0.24
1.05
0.84
0.94
1.65
-0.66

2.75
0.22
1.14
1.66
1.42
2.52
1.03
0.89
0.78
0.09
0.24
1.18
0.12
0.96
1.05
1.43
1.10
0.19
-0.34
0.25
1.84
2.58
0.16
1.10
1.53
-0.37
0.84
0.69
0.82
1.43
-0.71

2.44
0.07
0.91
1.74
1.31
2.28
0.54
0.78
0.69
-0.09
0.15
1.03
0.11
0.64
0.90
1.04
0.93
0.12
-0.40
0.23
1.64
2.45
0.11
0.91
1.47
-0.45
0.68
0.54
0.71
1.23
-0.78

1.71
-0.56
0.29
1.11
0.95
1.49
-0.07
0.25
0.35
-0.31
-0.45
0.57
-0.13
0.33
0.29
0.36
0.25
-0.37
-0.52
0.14
0.85
1.91
-0.19
0.27
1.07
-0.88
0.30
-0.01
0.05
0.64
-0.82

0.20
-0.65
-0.37
0.20
-0.00
0.06
-0.29
-0.15
-0.17
-0.26
-0.20
0.16
-0.08
0.09
0.04
-0.33
-0.56
-0.11
-0.09
0.15
-0.24
0.53
0.10
-0.54
-0.02
-0.49
-0.12
-0.49
-0.12
0.16
-0.13

Burkina Faso.....................................................
Burundi .............................................................
Cambodia..........................................................
Cameroon .........................................................
Canada ..............................................................
Cape Verde .......................................................
Cayman Islands.................................................

2.88
2.58
1.41
2.26
1.03
1.57
5.25

2.97
2.90
1.14
2.20
1.05
0.95
1.46

2.98
1.93
1.20
2.14
0.92
0.95
0.82

2.94
1.71
1.14
2.01
0.85
0.92
0.63

2.80
1.41
0.97
1.84
0.75
0.84
0.49

2.31
0.87
0.38
1.39
0.42
0.29
-0.17

0.91
-0.17
-0.43
0.26
0.06
-0.52
0.17

Central African Republic ..................................


Chad..................................................................
Channel Islands.................................................
Chile .................................................................

1.64
3.48
0.47
1.11

1.82
2.75
0.61
0.97

1.96
2.59
0.19
0.86

1.92
2.48
0.15
0.74

1.81
2.49
0.10
0.60

1.33
1.87
-0.21
0.07

0.11
0.41
0.29
-0.32

96

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.7 (continued)

Average annual rate of change (percentage)


Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

China.................................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR ...................................
China, Macao SAR ...........................................
Colombia ..........................................................
Comoros ...........................................................
Congo ...............................................................
Cook Islands .....................................................
Costa Rica.........................................................
Cte d'Ivoire .....................................................
Croatia ..............................................................
Cuba..................................................................
Cyprus...............................................................
Czech Republic.................................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ............................
Dem. Republic of the Congo ............................
Denmark ...........................................................
Djibouti.............................................................
Dominica ..........................................................
Dominican Republic .........................................
Ecuador.............................................................
Egypt.................................................................
El Salvador .......................................................
Equatorial Guinea .............................................
Eritrea ...............................................................
Estonia ..............................................................
Ethiopia.............................................................
Faeroe Islands ...................................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)..............................
Fiji ....................................................................
Finland..............................................................
France ...............................................................
French Guiana...................................................
French Polynesia...............................................
Gabon ...............................................................
Gambia .............................................................
Georgia .............................................................
Germany ...........................................................
Ghana................................................................

0.60
0.08
2.17
1.58
2.68
2.39
1.69
1.90
1.66
-0.28
0.27
1.81
-0.04
0.73
2.92
0.30
1.99
-0.22
1.51
1.68
1.85
0.37
3.10
4.03
-0.37
2.49
1.07
0.53
0.27
0.27
0.65
4.05
1.40
2.08
2.96
-1.17
0.05
2.43

0.51
0.70
2.43
1.46
2.67
2.70
0.89
1.56
1.82
-0.17
0.01
1.33
0.53
0.50
2.77
0.48
1.90
-0.34
1.38
1.49
1.78
0.47
2.84
3.16
-0.07
2.21
0.19
0.39
0.90
0.45
0.58
2.70
1.21
1.88
2.79
-0.57
-0.06
2.39

0.42
1.04
2.01
1.28
2.50
2.18
0.54
1.36
2.18
-0.19
-0.05
1.08
0.27
0.41
2.62
0.35
1.86
0.01
1.22
1.31
1.67
0.61
2.72
2.91
-0.07
2.07
0.46
0.28
0.81
0.32
0.51
2.52
1.04
1.91
2.68
-0.59
-0.20
2.26

0.26
0.98
1.70
1.11
2.29
2.08
0.48
1.11
2.14
-0.23
-0.10
0.89
0.20
0.40
2.47
0.31
1.78
0.03
1.05
1.14
1.45
0.69
2.40
2.39
-0.11
1.88
0.44
0.16
0.59
0.28
0.45
2.38
0.90
1.86
2.53
-0.70
-0.12
2.09

0.11
0.90
1.41
0.94
2.19
2.14
0.34
0.87
2.03
-0.27
-0.13
0.72
0.11
0.37
2.29
0.29
1.79
0.23
0.89
0.98
1.25
0.71
2.06
2.12
-0.20
1.69
0.47
0.06
0.39
0.21
0.40
2.22
0.73
1.73
2.37
-0.79
-0.16
1.93

-0.43
0.40
0.41
0.34
1.83
1.72
0.29
0.19
1.48
-0.42
-0.58
0.10
-0.06
-0.01
1.61
-0.02
1.18
-0.35
0.28
0.37
0.67
0.29
1.45
1.53
-0.21
0.92
0.07
-0.09
0.28
-0.03
0.26
1.54
0.12
1.26
1.71
-0.83
-0.32
1.41

-0.41
0.25
0.11
-0.27
0.66
0.49
-0.35
-0.43
0.21
-0.12
-0.43
-0.12
0.01
-0.14
0.22
0.08
-0.01
-0.28
-0.31
-0.33
-0.26
-0.44
0.20
0.12
-0.01
-0.32
-0.06
0.13
-0.19
0.10
0.17
0.34
-0.39
0.27
0.32
-0.34
0.04
0.19

Gibraltar............................................................
Greece...............................................................
Greenland .........................................................
Grenada.............................................................
Guadeloupe.......................................................
Guam ................................................................
Guatemala.........................................................

1.22
0.35
0.35
0.24
0.85
1.66
2.47

0.12
0.31
0.04
0.34
0.66
1.30
2.47

0.08
0.23
-0.01
0.39
0.45
1.20
2.52

0.04
0.13
-0.12
0.30
0.35
1.11
2.37

-0.03
0.06
-0.31
0.07
0.27
1.00
2.21

-0.29
0.01
-0.52
-0.69
-0.22
0.44
1.57

-0.02
-0.06
-0.19
-0.30
-0.14
-0.13
0.28

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

97

TABLE S.7. (continued)

Average annual rate of change (percentage)


Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Guinea...............................................................
Guinea-Bissau...................................................
Guyana..............................................................
Haiti ..................................................................
Holy See ...........................................................
Honduras...........................................................
Hungary ............................................................
Iceland ..............................................................
India..................................................................
Indonesia...........................................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).................................
Iraq ..................................................................
Ireland...............................................................
Isle of Man........................................................
Israel .................................................................
Italy ..................................................................
Jamaica .............................................................
Japan .................................................................
Jordan ...............................................................
Kazakhstan........................................................
Kenya................................................................
Kiribati..............................................................
Kuwait ..............................................................
Kyrgyzstan........................................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic .............................
Latvia................................................................
Lebanon ............................................................
Lesotho .............................................................
Liberia...............................................................
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya....................................
Liechtenstein.....................................................
Lithuania...........................................................
Luxembourg......................................................
Madagascar.......................................................
Malawi..............................................................
Malaysia ...........................................................
Maldives ...........................................................
Mali ..................................................................

1.60
1.95
0.36
1.56
-9.39
2.02
-0.24
1.08
1.57
1.26
1.30
2.74
1.78
0.81
1.87
0.58
0.76
0.11
2.03
0.29
2.61
1.81
3.08
0.35
1.58
-0.68
1.59
1.01
2.23
1.96
1.09
-0.49
0.97
3.04
2.65
2.17
1.55
3.08

1.98
2.05
0.22
1.34
-1.43
1.99
-0.21
1.52
1.43
1.08
1.18
2.93
1.45
0.71
2.32
0.63
0.44
0.02
2.94
1.10
2.58
1.58
3.79
1.13
1.50
-0.47
0.85
1.00
4.54
1.93
0.76
-0.55
2.09
2.94
3.00
1.69
1.35
3.08

2.51
2.08
0.22
1.28
0.09
1.98
-0.16
1.16
1.32
0.98
1.04
3.10
1.14
0.45
1.66
0.23
0.35
-0.07
1.88
1.05
2.68
1.53
2.41
1.07
1.33
-0.38
0.73
1.03
2.64
0.77
0.77
-0.44
1.35
2.82
3.24
1.57
1.29
2.96

2.41
2.05
0.27
1.20
-0.22
1.79
-0.16
1.06
1.17
0.83
0.79
2.87
0.97
0.30
1.45
0.02
0.27
-0.20
1.61
0.92
2.52
1.50
1.90
1.33
1.22
-0.38
0.59
0.93
2.50
1.39
0.75
-0.38
1.20
2.75
3.31
1.43
1.11
2.84

2.29
1.98
0.31
1.09
-0.13
1.59
-0.17
0.93
1.01
0.69
0.51
2.71
0.81
0.19
1.30
-0.06
0.14
-0.33
1.42
0.73
2.33
1.40
1.72
1.11
1.06
-0.44
0.47
0.76
2.40
1.05
0.71
-0.37
1.07
2.63
3.16
1.29
0.86
2.71

1.77
1.67
-0.28
0.55
0.27
0.89
-0.20
0.45
0.46
0.17
0.02
1.97
0.60
-0.17
0.98
-0.15
-0.59
-0.53
0.71
0.61
1.87
0.73
1.17
0.73
0.30
-0.39
-0.09
0.39
1.88
0.57
0.34
-0.43
0.43
2.00
2.82
0.68
0.24
2.19

0.43
0.72
-0.28
-0.21
0.29
-0.23
-0.03
0.18
-0.42
-0.35
-0.49
0.60
0.24
0.04
0.20
0.12
-0.27
-0.09
-0.36
0.23
0.49
-0.22
0.15
0.28
-0.50
-0.08
-0.44
0.05
0.58
-0.40
0.09
-0.07
0.04
0.60
1.37
-0.08
-0.64
0.74

Malta.................................................................
Marshall Islands................................................
Martinique ........................................................
Mauritania.........................................................
Mauritius...........................................................
Mayotte.............................................................
Mexico..............................................................

0.59
-0.04
0.61
2.85
0.99
3.21
1.26

0.35
0.75
0.42
2.54
0.66
3.11
1.26

0.31
1.61
0.26
2.24
0.53
3.02
1.14

0.22
1.20
0.14
2.10
0.41
2.62
0.95

0.13
0.86
0.04
1.96
0.30
2.39
0.80

-0.23
0.45
-0.47
1.48
-0.16
1.71
0.23

0.17
0.06
-0.29
0.35
-0.22
0.12
-0.36

98

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.7 (continued)

Average annual rate of change (percentage)


Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...............................


Monaco .............................................................
Mongolia...........................................................
Montenegro.......................................................
Montserrat.........................................................
Morocco............................................................
Mozambique .....................................................
Myanmar...........................................................
Namibia ............................................................
Nauru ................................................................
Nepal.................................................................
Netherlands.......................................................
Netherlands Antilles .........................................
New Caledonia .................................................
New Zealand.....................................................
Nicaragua..........................................................
Niger .................................................................
Nigeria ..............................................................
Niue ..................................................................
Northern Mariana Islands .................................
Norway .............................................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory .........................
Oman ................................................................
Pakistan.............................................................
Palau .................................................................
Panama .............................................................
Papua New Guinea ...........................................
Paraguay ...........................................................
Peru...................................................................
Philippines ........................................................
Poland ...............................................................
Portugal.............................................................
Puerto Rico .......................................................
Qatar .................................................................
Republic of Korea.............................................
Republic of Moldova ........................................
Runion.............................................................
Romania............................................................

0.43
0.08
1.10
-0.19
2.54
1.08
2.64
0.60
1.85
0.14
2.23
0.55
0.68
1.73
1.38
1.34
3.47
2.45
-2.39
-0.31
0.58
2.12
1.41
1.86
0.75
1.82
2.50
1.97
1.27
2.02
-0.07
0.40
-0.17
6.58
0.45
-1.73
1.46
-0.38

0.30
0.08
1.57
0.15
1.16
1.00
2.38
0.70
1.87
0.28
1.87
0.37
1.52
1.64
1.10
1.30
3.54
2.50
-2.77
-2.02
1.09
2.55
2.71
1.80
0.56
1.65
2.36
1.80
1.07
1.73
0.06
0.25
-0.18
15.24
0.48
-1.06
1.25
-0.26

0.55
0.04
1.53
0.08
0.88
0.99
2.24
0.79
1.68
0.59
1.68
0.28
0.72
1.48
1.04
1.42
3.52
2.53
-2.80
1.75
0.69
2.81
1.89
1.77
0.79
1.46
2.17
1.71
1.13
1.68
0.04
0.05
-0.04
2.90
0.38
-0.68
1.09
-0.23

0.77
-0.00
1.37
0.06
0.64
0.88
2.18
0.70
1.47
0.42
1.53
0.22
0.37
1.21
0.95
1.22
3.53
2.51
-2.08
1.21
0.68
2.69
1.46
1.59
1.05
1.30
2.03
1.56
1.06
1.58
0.01
-0.15
0.03
1.57
0.28
-0.56
0.93
-0.26

0.88
0.01
1.12
-0.02
0.52
0.74
2.12
0.57
1.37
0.29
1.37
0.18
0.15
1.00
0.84
1.01
3.41
2.39
-1.59
0.85
0.67
2.51
1.07
1.43
1.03
1.16
1.91
1.40
0.98
1.47
-0.08
-0.28
0.03
0.80
0.17
-0.58
0.79
-0.30

0.29
0.05
0.76
-0.27
0.11
0.15
1.60
0.02
0.77
-0.20
0.68
-0.10
-0.40
0.37
0.38
0.32
2.86
2.02
0.11
-0.34
0.38
1.74
0.07
0.72
0.45
0.58
1.35
0.80
0.37
0.95
-0.43
-0.51
-0.16
0.44
-0.42
-0.84
0.31
-0.46

-0.03
0.31
0.27
-0.29
-0.11
-0.40
0.42
-0.32
-0.24
-0.16
-0.34
0.09
-0.24
-0.16
0.17
-0.38
1.19
0.77
-0.27
-0.47
0.19
0.36
-0.72
-0.41
-0.01
-0.19
0.15
-0.11
-0.35
-0.06
-0.12
-0.39
-0.38
-0.53
-0.18
-0.31
-0.09
-0.16

Russian Federation............................................
Rwanda .............................................................
Saint Helena......................................................
Saint Kitts and Nevis ........................................
Saint Lucia........................................................
Saint Pierre and Miquelon ................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.........................

-0.40
2.55
-1.91
1.30
1.01
-0.43
0.16

-0.12
2.87
-2.21
1.27
1.06
-0.30
0.11

-0.10
2.92
-0.88
1.18
0.96
-0.00
0.00

-0.17
2.66
0.51
1.03
0.81
-0.02
0.05

-0.28
2.34
0.37
0.86
0.63
-0.02
0.09

-0.38
1.94
-0.14
0.30
0.04
-0.01
0.06

-0.05
0.44
-0.23
-0.21
-0.44
0.09
-0.41

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

99

TABLE S.7. (continued)

Average annual rate of change (percentage)


Country or area

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Samoa ...............................................................
San Marino .......................................................
Sao Tome and Principe .....................................
Saudi Arabia .....................................................
Senegal .............................................................
Serbia................................................................
Seychelles .........................................................
Sierra Leone......................................................
Singapore ..........................................................
Slovakia ............................................................
Slovenia ............................................................
Solomon Islands................................................
Somalia .............................................................
South Africa......................................................
Spain .................................................................
Sri Lanka ..........................................................
Sudan ................................................................
Suriname...........................................................
Swaziland .........................................................
Sweden .............................................................
Switzerland .......................................................
Syrian Arab Republic........................................
Tajikistan ..........................................................
TFYR Macedonia .............................................
Thailand............................................................
Timor-Leste ......................................................
Togo..................................................................
Tokelau .............................................................
Tonga................................................................
Trinidad and Tobago.........................................
Tunisia ..............................................................
Turkey...............................................................
Turkmenistan ....................................................
Turks and Caicos Islands ..................................
Tuvalu...............................................................
Uganda..............................................................
Ukraine .............................................................
United Arab Emirates .......................................

0.41
2.33
1.58
3.64
2.69
-0.56
1.19
4.36
1.70
0.04
0.17
2.79
2.44
1.31
1.49
1.14
2.33
1.34
0.76
0.38
0.68
2.90
0.89
0.29
1.09
3.93
2.41
-4.98
0.60
0.36
0.94
1.37
1.07
9.62
0.58
3.21
-0.82
5.88

0.31
0.80
1.61
2.65
2.68
0.00
0.71
2.60
3.52
0.17
0.27
2.72
2.20
0.96
1.20
1.00
2.51
0.99
1.42
0.76
0.66
1.98
1.28
0.22
0.71
2.14
2.17
-1.28
0.61
0.39
1.12
1.31
1.20
4.56
0.27
3.24
-0.64
12.26

0.48
0.62
1.97
2.13
2.60
-0.10
0.33
2.09
1.10
0.16
0.23
2.50
2.56
0.51
0.62
0.80
2.39
0.87
1.36
0.56
0.39
1.67
1.46
0.12
0.50
2.92
2.04
0.30
0.43
0.32
1.01
1.14
1.24
1.23
0.23
3.14
-0.55
2.17

0.40
0.36
1.81
1.87
2.44
-0.18
0.42
1.94
0.81
0.14
0.13
2.30
2.86
0.44
0.47
0.58
2.25
0.74
1.10
0.56
0.32
1.64
1.46
0.00
0.34
2.98
1.91
0.67
0.84
0.15
0.87
0.95
1.13
0.84
0.46
2.99
-0.54
1.82

0.45
0.26
1.66
1.54
2.28
-0.23
0.32
1.79
0.72
0.07
0.01
2.14
2.91
0.44
0.34
0.39
2.04
0.63
0.92
0.51
0.25
1.54
1.33
-0.10
0.22
2.88
1.75
0.97
0.81
-0.05
0.69
0.78
0.93
0.62
0.72
2.83
-0.58
1.46

0.35
0.02
1.13
0.71
1.72
-0.40
-0.14
1.23
-0.02
-0.31
-0.17
1.54
2.69
0.15
0.13
-0.03
1.47
0.01
0.69
0.24
-0.19
0.74
0.84
-0.46
-0.22
1.96
1.17
0.19
0.62
-0.26
0.14
0.21
0.31
0.01
0.81
2.18
-0.55
0.65

0.43
-0.03
-0.05
-0.39
0.37
-0.32
-0.41
0.09
-0.02
-0.10
-0.06
0.21
1.31
-0.21
-0.11
-0.27
0.22
-0.30
-0.10
0.14
-0.01
-0.36
-0.12
-0.39
-0.30
0.32
0.01
0.50
0.38
-0.30
-0.29
-0.37
-0.48
-0.37
0.51
0.61
-0.09
-0.48

United Kingdom ...............................................


United Republic of Tanzania ............................
United States of America ..................................
United States Virgin Islands .............................
Uruguay ............................................................
Uzbekistan ........................................................
Vanuatu.............................................................

0.45
2.63
0.99
0.16
0.02
0.92
2.64

0.60
2.88
0.89
-0.06
0.28
1.12
2.53

0.60
3.08
0.85
-0.25
0.35
1.14
2.41

0.58
3.10
0.80
-0.31
0.39
1.15
2.27

0.54
2.98
0.74
-0.36
0.33
0.93
2.12

0.21
2.57
0.51
-0.50
0.05
0.24
1.54

0.08
1.08
0.21
-0.32
-0.19
-0.47
0.33

100

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.7 (continued)

Average annual rate of change (percentage)


Country or area

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) .................


Viet Nam ..........................................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands.................................
Western Sahara .................................................
Yemen...............................................................
Zambia..............................................................
Zimbabwe .........................................................

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

1.82
1.09
-0.35
6.68
3.06
2.33
0.10

1.67
1.10
-0.98
3.72
3.05
2.65
0.00

1.49
1.02
-0.65
3.24
3.02
3.05
2.15

1.31
0.83
-0.16
2.81
2.83
3.23
2.09

1.13
0.61
0.10
1.28
2.60
3.15
1.39

2045-2050

0.53
0.07
-0.22
0.50
1.92
3.06
0.74

2095-2100

-0.29
-0.39
-0.39
-0.31
0.45
1.74
-0.08

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

101

TABLE S.8. COUNTRIES OR AREAS WHOSE POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BETWEEN 2011 AND 2050
(MEDIUM VARIANT)
Population (thousands)
Rank

Country or area

2011

2050

Difference
Absolute

Percentage

More developed regions


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

Bulgaria..............................................
Republic of Moldova..........................
Bosnia and Herzegovina.....................
Ukraine...............................................
Belarus ...............................................
Latvia .................................................
Lithuania ............................................
Japan ..................................................
Romania .............................................
Portugal ..............................................
Croatia................................................
Russian Federation .............................
Serbia .................................................
Germany.............................................
Poland ................................................
TFYR Macedonia...............................
Estonia................................................
Hungary..............................................
Albania ...............................................
Montenegro ........................................
Slovakia..............................................
Italy ....................................................
Slovenia..............................................
Channel Islands ..................................
Malta ..................................................

7 446
5 459
3 545
2 661
3 752
2 952
45 190
36 074
9 559
8 001
2 243
1 902
3 307
2 813
126 497
108 549
21 436
18 535
10 690
9 379
4 396
3 859
142 836
126 188
9 854
8 797
82 163
74 781
38 299
34 906
2 064
1 881
1 341
1 233
9 966
9 243
3 216
2 990
632
604
5 472
5 241
60 789
59 158
2 035
1 994
154
152
418
415
Less developed regions
Georgia...............................................
4 329
3 186
United States Virgin Islands...............
109
92
Cuba ...................................................
11 254
9 898
Grenada ..............................................
105
95
Jamaica...............................................
2 751
2 569
Martinique..........................................
407
382
Armenia..............................................
3 100
2 931
Trinidad and Tobago ..........................
1 346
1 288
Aruba..................................................
108
104
China ..................................................
1 347 565 1 295 604
Barbados.............................................
274
264
Republic of Korea ..............................
48 391
47 050
Netherlands Antilles...........................
203
198
Puerto Rico.........................................
3 746
3 657

- 1 987
- 884
- 800
- 9 116
- 1 558
- 341
- 495
- 17 949
- 2 902
- 1 311
- 537
- 16 647
- 1 057
- 7 381
- 3 393
- 183
- 108
- 723
- 226
- 29
- 230
- 1 631
- 41
- 2
- 3

-26.7
-24.9
-21.3
-20.2
-16.3
-15.2
-15.0
-14.2
-13.5
-12.3
-12.2
-11.7
-10.7
-9.0
-8.9
-8.9
-8.0
-7.3
-7.0
-4.5
-4.2
-2.7
-2.0
-1.3
-0.7

- 1 143
- 17
- 1 355
- 10
- 182
- 25
- 169
- 58
- 4
- 51 962
- 9
- 1 342
- 5
- 88

-26.4
-15.3
-12.0
-9.5
-6.6
-6.2
-5.5
-4.3
-4.1
-3.9
-3.4
-2.8
-2.4
-2.4

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2011 are considered.

102

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.9. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION IN SELECTED AGE GROUPS BY COUNTRY, 2011, 2050 AND 2100
(MEDIUM VARIANT)
2050

2100

Country or area

0-14

2011
15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

World .................................................
Afghanistan .........................................

26.6
46.2

62.2
50.1

11.2
3.8

1.6
0.2

20.5
30.6

57.7
62.7

21.8
6.7

4.3
0.4

17.9
18.1

Albania................................................

22.1

64.4

13.5

1.7

13.0

53.3

33.8

7.3

14.8

Algeria ................................................

26.8

66.2

7.0

0.7

16.2

57.6

26.2

3.7

15.7

Angola.................................................

46.2

49.8

3.9

0.3

28.9

63.2

7.9

0.7

17.7

Argentina ............................................

24.7

60.5

14.8

2.6

17.8

57.2

25.0

5.2

15.9

Armenia ..............................................

20.1

65.1

14.8

2.8

16.1

53.7

30.2

6.6

16.3

Aruba ..................................................

18.8

66.4

14.8

1.5

15.0

55.0

30.0

8.6

16.5

Australia..............................................

19.0

61.7

19.3

3.8

17.9

53.2

28.9

8.5

16.8

Austria.................................................

14.5

62.1

23.4

4.9

13.7

49.8

36.5 12.2

15.9

Azerbaijan ...........................................

21.1

70.0

8.9

1.2

19.5

55.6

24.9

4.2

18.2

Bahamas..............................................

22.2

67.1

10.7

1.2

16.0

56.0

28.1

6.2

15.9

Bahrain................................................

20.3

76.1

3.6

0.3

15.6

52.3

32.2

4.2

14.7

Bangladesh..........................................

30.6

62.7

6.7

0.7

15.8

61.8

22.4

3.0

14.8

Barbados .............................................

17.1

66.1

16.8

3.0

14.7

51.6

33.7

8.8

16.7

Belarus ................................................

15.1

66.2

18.7

3.3

16.1

51.7

32.2

6.4

17.3

Belgium...............................................

16.9

59.4

23.7

5.2

17.3

51.8

30.9

9.6

17.2

Belize ..................................................

34.4

59.9

5.7

0.9

20.0

61.5

18.5

3.2

15.2

Benin...................................................

43.6

51.8

4.6

0.4

32.2

59.7

8.1

0.8

20.5

Bhutan.................................................

28.8

64.1

7.1

0.7

15.6

60.4

24.1

2.9

14.9

Bolivia (Plurinational State of) ...........

35.6

57.2

7.2

0.7

23.7

61.5

14.8

2.1

16.5

Bosnia and Herzegovina .....................

14.8

65.5

19.7

2.8

11.5

48.1

40.4

9.7

15.5

Botswana.............................................

32.3

61.3

6.4

0.5

22.2

64.8

13.0

1.3

17.0

Brazil...................................................

24.9

64.5

10.6

1.5

14.7

56.2

29.0

6.8

15.3

Brunei Darussalam..............................

25.9

68.1

6.1

0.7

16.3

60.6

23.1

4.8

16.2

Bulgaria...............................................

13.9

61.4

24.7

4.0

15.3

48.4

36.3

7.7

17.1

Burkina Faso .......................................

45.3

51.0

3.7

0.2

35.9

57.4

6.7

0.5

23.4

Burundi ...............................................

37.7

57.7

4.6

0.4

24.3

63.3

12.5

0.9

16.6

Cambodia ............................................

31.2

62.4

6.4

0.4

17.5

63.5

19.0

2.0

15.5

Cameroon............................................

40.5

54.1

5.4

0.5

29.2

61.3

9.5

0.8

19.2

Canada ................................................

16.4

63.3

20.4

4.0

16.2

52.8

31.0

9.7

16.3

Cape Verde..........................................

31.0

61.9

7.1

1.3

15.8

60.9

23.3

3.6

14.7

Central African Republic ....................

40.1

53.9

6.0

0.5

28.1

62.1

9.8

0.7

18.5

Chad ....................................................

45.4

50.1

4.5

0.3

32.7

60.4

6.9

0.5

19.8

Channel Islands...................................

14.7

61.7

23.6

4.1

14.6

49.8

35.6 11.9

16.8

Chile....................................................

21.7

64.8

13.5

2.2

15.2

54.5

30.3

8.4

15.5

China...................................................

19.1

68.1

12.8

1.4

13.5

52.6

33.9

7.6

15.9

China, Hong Kong SAR......................

11.3

69.9

18.8

3.7

12.9

49.8

37.4 12.9

15.9

China, Macao SAR .............................

12.9

75.1

12.0

1.9

12.9

49.0

38.1

9.7

15.7

Colombia.............................................

28.4

62.7

8.9

1.1

17.7

58.5

23.7

5.1

15.7

Comoros..............................................

42.7

53.1

4.2

0.3

32.1

59.2

8.7

0.7

21.5

Congo..................................................

40.6

53.9

5.5

0.5

31.1

59.7

9.2

0.9

20.5

Costa Rica ...........................................

24.4

65.8

9.8

1.5

14.5

55.7

29.8

7.1

14.7

54.1
59.8
47.7
50.5
58.2
50.6
51.0
50.8
49.8
48.7
53.6
50.6
50.3
49.6
50.6
53.3
50.8
51.4
59.3
49.2
54.2
49.1
55.5
48.9
53.4
52.2
60.0
56.2
51.6
58.9
49.7
48.8
58.4
60.1
50.6
49.0
49.9
49.0
48.8
50.1
59.4
59.0
47.2

28.0
22.1
37.4
33.9
24.1
33.5
32.7
32.7
33.4
35.4
28.2
33.5
35.1
35.6
32.7
29.4
32.0
33.4
20.2
36.0
29.4
35.4
27.5
35.8
30.4
30.7
16.6
27.2
32.9
21.9
34.0
36.5
23.1
20.1
32.6
35.5
34.1
35.1
35.4
34.2
19.1
20.5
38.1

7.8
3.5
14.0
11.2
4.2
11.4
11.5
10.0
13.0
13.5
8.2
11.3
11.1
10.7
10.8
9.1
11.4
9.6
3.5
11.6
7.6
12.0
6.2
13.3
10.7
9.9
2.5
5.8
8.9
3.9
12.7
11.8
4.1
3.0
11.6
13.1
11.4
13.9
13.5
11.5
3.0
3.8
15.3

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

103

TABLE S.9 (continued)


2050

2100

Country or area

0-14

2011
15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Cte d'Ivoire........................................

40.6

53.4

5.9

0.4

28.5

61.6

9.9

0.9

18.4

Croatia.................................................

14.9

61.4

23.7

4.0

14.8

50.7

34.5

8.8

16.5

Cuba ....................................................

16.9

65.7

17.4

3.0

12.3

48.5

39.2 13.2

15.4

Cyprus.................................................

17.5

65.9

16.6

2.6

14.3

53.2

32.5

7.1

15.8

Czech Republic ...................................

14.1

63.5

22.4

3.7

15.5

50.3

34.2

7.8

16.7

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ..............

22.5

63.8

13.7

1.1

17.5

59.3

23.2

4.1

17.1

Dem. Republic of the Congo...............

46.0

49.7

4.2

0.3

30.9

61.9

7.3

0.5

18.9

Denmark..............................................

17.9

58.5

23.6

4.2

17.1

53.3

29.7

9.2

17.1

Djibouti ...............................................

35.4

59.1

5.5

0.3

24.8

62.7

12.5

1.0

17.4

Dominican Republic ...........................

30.7

60.3

9.0

1.5

18.8

59.0

22.2

4.9

15.1

Ecuador ...............................................

29.9

60.9

9.2

1.3

17.8

58.5

23.7

5.0

14.9

Egypt...................................................

31.3

60.5

8.2

0.7

19.7

60.1

20.2

2.8

15.2

El Salvador..........................................

31.3

59.0

9.6

1.7

17.5

61.3

21.2

4.4

15.1

Equatorial Guinea ...............................

39.2

56.4

4.4

0.4

29.3

61.6

9.1

1.2

18.5

Eritrea..................................................

41.6

54.3

4.1

0.3

27.6

62.1

10.4

0.7

17.8

Estonia ................................................

15.6

61.4

23.0

4.4

17.1

50.6

32.4

7.6

17.1

Ethiopia...............................................

40.8

53.9

5.3

0.4

22.1

65.7

12.2

1.2

15.8

Fiji.......................................................

28.9

62.9

8.2

0.5

20.2

59.6

20.2

3.5

16.2

Finland ................................................

16.5

58.2

25.3

4.8

16.9

51.7

31.5 10.2

16.9

France..................................................

18.4

58.3

23.3

5.5

17.6

51.9

30.5 10.0

16.9

French Guiana.....................................

33.0

59.8

7.2

0.7

24.7

59.5

15.8

3.1

18.1

French Polynesia .................................

24.8

65.5

9.7

1.0

15.7

57.7

26.5

5.6

15.0

Gabon..................................................

35.0

58.4

6.5

0.8

26.1

60.8

13.0

1.6

18.8

Gambia................................................

43.7

52.8

3.5

0.1

30.0

61.9

8.1

0.5

19.1

Georgia................................................

16.5

64.1

19.4

3.3

14.0

50.6

35.4

8.1

15.9

Germany..............................................

13.4

60.3

26.3

5.2

14.5

48.0

37.5 13.5

16.6

Ghana ..................................................

38.4

55.6

6.0

0.5

27.2

60.8

11.9

1.4

18.0

Greece .................................................

14.7

60.8

24.5

5.1

15.1

49.0

36.0 10.2

16.2

Grenada...............................................

27.3

63.1

9.6

1.9

16.6

54.3

29.1

4.8

15.0

Guadeloupe .........................................

22.2

60.3

17.5

3.5

16.3

51.2

32.5 11.5

16.2

Guam...................................................

26.9

61.8

11.2

1.2

18.9

59.0

22.2

5.0

15.9

Guatemala ...........................................

41.1

52.5

6.4

0.8

27.7

60.6

11.7

1.7

17.8

Guinea.................................................

42.8

52.1

5.1

0.4

31.3

60.3

8.4

0.7

19.9

Guinea-Bissau .....................................

41.2

53.5

5.4

0.4

32.3

59.4

8.3

0.6

22.9

Guyana ................................................

32.4

60.9

6.7

0.7

16.4

61.2

22.4

4.6

16.1

Haiti ....................................................

35.6

57.8

6.6

0.5

22.1

62.7

15.3

1.5

16.4

Honduras.............................................

36.2

57.5

6.3

0.9

21.1

61.9

17.0

2.7

15.0

Hungary ..............................................

14.7

62.4

22.9

4.1

15.6

52.2

32.2

7.0

17.0

Iceland.................................................

20.8

62.1

17.2

3.4

18.3

52.9

28.8

8.3

17.0

India ....................................................

30.2

62.0

7.8

0.7

19.0

61.9

19.1

2.6

15.2

Indonesia.............................................

26.7

65.0

8.3

0.8

16.5

58.0

25.5

4.5

15.8

Iran (Islamic Republic of) ...................

22.8

69.6

7.6

1.0

13.8

53.2

33.1

4.5

15.5

Iraq......................................................

42.9

52.4

4.7

0.4

30.6

59.3

10.0

1.0

20.1

Ireland .................................................

21.4

61.8

16.8

2.9

18.8

52.5

28.7

7.4

17.1

Israel ...................................................

27.3

57.5

15.1

2.9

21.9

55.5

22.5

5.8

16.1

58.3
50.7
48.2
49.7
51.0
53.7
59.5
50.3
57.6
50.1
49.2
51.4
49.0
58.9
57.8
52.7
53.8
52.6
50.1
49.9
54.4
49.4
56.8
58.9
50.7
49.6
57.0
50.0
50.2
49.5
51.2
55.4
59.3
59.6
50.8
54.7
51.2
51.8
50.0
52.9
50.3
49.7
57.6
51.0
51.0

23.3
32.9
36.4
34.5
32.3
29.3
21.6
32.6
25.1
34.8
35.9
33.4
35.8
22.6
24.4
30.2
30.4
31.1
33.0
33.1
27.5
35.6
24.5
22.0
33.4
33.7
25.0
33.8
34.7
34.3
33.0
26.8
20.8
17.5
33.2
28.8
33.8
31.2
33.0
31.9
33.9
34.7
22.3
32.0
32.9

4.5
11.2
14.0
12.5
11.5
7.3
3.4
11.5
4.5
12.1
12.5
9.7
13.3
4.0
5.0
10.3
7.0
9.3
12.4
12.6
7.7
12.2
5.5
3.7
10.9
12.6
5.5
12.4
11.5
13.8
10.1
7.2
3.6
2.7
9.4
6.5
10.7
10.1
12.7
8.4
11.0
12.6
4.6
12.0
12.2

104

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.9 (continued)


2050

Country or area

0-14

2011
15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

Italy .....................................................

14.1

59.2

26.8

6.0

14.3

Jamaica................................................

28.6

60.6

10.7

2.0

Japan ...................................................

13.3

55.6

31.1

Jordan..................................................

36.8

57.3

5.8

Kazakhstan..........................................

25.0

65.0

Kenya ..................................................

42.4

53.4

Kuwait.................................................

26.7

Kyrgyzstan ..........................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic ...............

2100
80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

47.3

38.4 12.9

16.0

17.2

56.8

25.9

6.8

15.9

6.6

13.4

45.2

41.5 14.6

15.6

0.5

19.4

62.4

18.2

2.2

14.8

10.1

1.2

22.9

57.4

19.6

2.9

19.2

4.2

0.4

32.3

59.0

8.7

0.7

20.5

69.2

4.1

0.3

18.8

59.0

22.3

2.2

17.8

30.0

63.6

6.4

1.0

23.5

59.2

17.3

2.5

19.5

33.7

60.3

6.0

0.6

17.1

64.0

18.9

2.1

15.2

Latvia ..................................................

14.0

63.0

23.0

4.3

15.9

49.9

34.2

7.7

16.9

Lebanon ..............................................

24.3

65.2

10.5

1.2

14.8

57.3

28.0

4.6

15.5

Lesotho................................................

37.0

56.7

6.3

0.7

25.9

65.0

9.1

0.7

18.5

Liberia.................................................

43.5

52.1

4.4

0.3

32.4

59.8

7.8

0.6

21.0

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya......................

30.7

62.7

6.7

0.6

17.5

59.5

23.0

3.3

15.2

Lithuania .............................................

14.8

64.0

21.1

3.9

15.7

52.2

32.2

7.6

17.2

Luxembourg........................................

17.6

63.4

19.0

3.8

16.6

53.8

29.6

8.3

16.6

Madagascar .........................................

42.8

52.5

4.8

0.5

31.6

59.3

9.1

1.1

20.5

Malawi ................................................

45.9

49.2

4.9

0.4

40.2

54.6

5.1

0.4

26.8

Malaysia..............................................

29.9

62.1

8.0

0.6

19.8

59.8

20.4

3.4

16.1

Maldives..............................................

25.8

67.3

6.9

0.7

12.8

56.0

31.2

5.0

14.0

Mali.....................................................

47.2

49.3

3.5

0.2

35.8

58.3

6.0

0.3

22.2

Malta ...................................................

14.7

63.3

22.0

3.2

13.0

50.4

36.7

9.3

15.9

Martinique...........................................

19.1

60.6

20.3

4.1

14.0

49.5

36.5 13.1

15.9

Mauritania ...........................................

39.7

55.8

4.5

0.2

29.0

60.9

10.1

0.7

19.5

Mauritius.............................................

21.3

67.3

11.4

1.4

15.3

55.4

29.3

7.0

16.7

Mayotte ...............................................

46.8

50.1

3.1

0.5

27.4

60.8

11.8

2.0

16.1

Mexico ................................................

28.7

62.1

9.2

1.4

16.4

57.8

25.8

5.7

15.1

Micronesia (Fed. States of) .................

36.1

57.7

6.2

0.7

22.6

62.9

14.5

1.7

16.3

Mongolia.............................................

27.8

66.2

6.0

0.7

22.4

57.2

20.5

2.9

19.0

Montenegro .........................................

19.1

62.8

18.1

2.5

15.1

54.1

30.8

6.4

16.0

Morocco ..............................................

27.7

63.9

8.4

0.8

16.7

59.0

24.2

3.7

15.5

Mozambique .......................................

43.9

51.0

5.1

0.4

31.9

60.9

7.2

0.8

19.9

Myanmar.............................................

25.2

66.6

8.2

0.8

16.2

59.3

24.5

3.2

16.4

Namibia...............................................

36.0

58.3

5.8

0.5

22.8

63.8

13.4

1.6

16.8

Nepal...................................................

35.5

58.2

6.4

0.5

19.1

64.0

16.9

1.9

15.3

Netherlands .........................................

17.5

60.2

22.3

4.0

16.4

51.7

31.9 10.7

16.9

Netherlands Antilles............................

20.3

63.9

15.8

2.4

14.2

46.4

39.4

9.8

16.4

New Caledonia....................................

24.9

63.0

12.1

1.7

17.1

57.0

25.9

6.2

15.9

New Zealand .......................................

20.4

60.9

18.6

3.5

18.3

53.1

28.6

8.8

17.1

Nicaragua ............................................

33.9

59.7

6.4

1.0

18.4

60.4

21.2

3.9

14.7

Niger ...................................................

49.0

47.2

3.9

0.1

40.1

55.0

4.9

0.3

25.5

Nigeria ................................................

42.8

51.9

5.3

0.4

34.5

58.1

7.4

0.6

22.6

Norway................................................

18.6

59.9

21.5

4.6

17.8

53.2

29.0

9.0

17.1

Occupied Palestinian Territory............

41.9

53.6

4.4

0.3

28.4

61.1

10.5

1.2

18.0

Oman...................................................

27.1

68.6

4.3

0.5

13.6

57.6

28.9

3.6

14.5

49.0
50.8
47.5
50.5
56.2
59.5
53.0
55.7
50.3
52.6
50.0
58.9
60.0
50.0
52.7
49.6
58.2
59.7
52.1
46.0
60.6
49.9
48.5
58.8
51.0
54.2
48.6
53.8
55.0
50.7
50.3
59.6
51.9
54.7
51.5
49.9
51.5
49.8
50.3
49.4
60.4
59.9
50.3
56.4
48.0

35.0
33.3
37.0
34.7
24.6
20.1
29.2
24.8
34.6
30.4
34.5
22.6
18.9
34.8
30.1
33.8
21.3
13.6
31.8
40.0
17.2
34.2
35.6
21.8
32.3
29.8
36.3
29.9
26.1
33.3
34.2
20.5
31.7
28.5
33.3
33.2
32.1
34.3
32.6
35.9
14.1
17.4
32.6
25.6
37.4

13.9
10.8
15.9
10.1
6.2
3.8
7.8
6.4
9.9
10.2
10.9
4.2
2.8
12.3
9.5
12.6
4.4
2.0
8.8
16.9
2.4
12.6
14.1
3.8
10.9
9.1
13.4
6.7
7.2
10.9
10.7
3.6
8.8
6.9
9.1
11.9
12.3
12.6
12.2
12.8
1.9
2.8
11.9
6.0
12.9

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

60+

105

TABLE S.9 (continued)


2050

2100

Country or area

0-14

2011
15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Pakistan...............................................

35.0

58.6

6.4

0.6

20.6

63.6

15.8

1.7

15.4

Panama................................................

28.6

61.5

9.9

1.3

18.4

58.3

23.2

5.0

15.5

Papua New Guinea..............................

38.8

56.5

4.7

0.3

26.6

62.4

11.1

1.1

18.1

Paraguay..............................................

33.1

59.1

7.8

1.0

21.7

60.8

17.5

2.9

15.9

Peru .....................................................

29.6

61.5

9.0

1.2

17.7

59.6

22.7

4.4

15.2

Philippines ..........................................

35.0

59.1

5.9

0.5

23.2

61.6

15.3

2.2

16.3

Poland .................................................

14.8

65.4

19.8

3.6

14.7

50.0

35.3

7.7

16.7

Portugal...............................................

15.0

61.0

24.0

4.8

12.5

47.0

40.4 11.5

15.4

Puerto Rico..........................................

20.8

61.0

18.2

3.4

14.5

54.0

31.5

8.7

15.0

Qatar ...................................................

14.0

84.0

2.0

0.1

10.6

61.5

27.9

3.5

11.4

Republic of Korea ...............................

16.1

67.7

16.2

2.1

13.2

47.9

38.9 12.3

15.9

Republic of Moldova ..........................

16.6

67.0

16.3

2.3

14.3

51.9

33.8

6.2

16.3

Runion...............................................

25.4

62.6

11.9

2.0

17.9

56.6

25.5

7.4

16.6

Romania ..............................................

15.2

64.2

20.6

3.3

14.6

49.3

36.0

7.5

16.7

Russian Federation..............................

15.3

66.5

18.2

3.0

16.9

51.9

31.2

6.0

17.6

Rwanda ...............................................

42.9

52.8

4.4

0.4

32.8

58.6

8.6

0.7

19.8

Saint Lucia ..........................................

25.5

65.0

9.5

1.7

15.2

57.2

27.7

5.6

15.1

St. Vincent and the Grenadines ...........

26.1

64.1

9.7

1.4

16.2

59.7

24.0

4.2

15.9

Samoa..................................................

37.4

55.2

7.4

1.0

27.0

60.5

12.6

3.1

18.7

Sao Tome and Principe .......................

39.9

54.9

5.2

0.6

24.6

62.8

12.6

1.1

16.7

Saudi Arabia........................................

30.1

65.2

4.7

0.6

17.1

61.1

21.8

2.2

14.4

Senegal................................................

43.5

52.6

3.9

0.1

30.6

61.2

8.2

0.4

19.4

Serbia ..................................................

17.5

62.5

20.1

3.3

14.6

53.2

32.2

6.5

16.0

Sierra Leone ........................................

42.9

53.5

3.6

0.1

28.3

64.2

7.5

0.3

18.5

Singapore ............................................

16.8

68.5

14.7

1.9

13.0

49.2

37.8 12.9

16.0

Slovakia ..............................................

15.0

67.2

17.8

2.8

14.6

50.5

34.9

7.1

16.9

Slovenia ..............................................

14.0

63.1

22.9

4.3

14.7

48.6

36.7 10.4

16.1

Solomon Islands..................................

39.5

55.4

5.1

0.4

26.9

61.1

12.0

1.2

17.4

Somalia ...............................................

45.0

50.7

4.4

0.3

40.0

54.2

5.8

0.5

26.9

South Africa ........................................

29.9

62.5

7.6

0.6

21.1

64.1

14.8

2.1

17.0

Spain ...................................................

15.1

62.4

22.5

5.1

14.6

47.0

38.3 11.6

15.6

Sri Lanka.............................................

24.9

62.5

12.6

1.5

17.5

55.0

27.4

6.1

16.0

Sudan ..................................................

39.8

54.5

5.7

0.4

27.6

61.3

11.0

1.1

18.0

Suriname .............................................

28.1

62.4

9.4

1.1

17.2

59.0

23.8

4.6

16.0

Swaziland............................................

37.9

56.8

5.3

0.4

25.4

66.3

8.3

0.7

17.3

Sweden................................................

16.6

58.3

25.2

5.3

17.3

52.1

30.6

9.5

16.7

Switzerland .........................................

15.1

61.8

23.1

4.9

14.3

48.6

37.1 12.8

16.1

Syrian Arab Republic..........................

36.2

57.7

6.1

0.7

18.7

63.2

18.1

2.9

14.6

Tajikistan ............................................

36.5

58.6

4.9

0.7

23.6

62.4

14.0

2.1

16.1

TFYR Macedonia................................

17.3

65.6

17.1

2.2

13.3

52.7

34.0

6.7

15.7

Thailand ..............................................

20.2

66.6

13.3

1.8

14.4

53.8

31.8

7.6

16.1

Timor-Leste.........................................

45.8

49.4

4.8

0.3

30.9

62.1

7.0

0.6

18.1

Togo ....................................................

39.3

55.4

5.3

0.4

25.7

62.6

11.7

1.1

17.2

Tonga ..................................................

37.4

54.6

8.0

1.3

27.3

60.0

12.7

2.4

18.9

Trinidad and Tobago...........................

20.5

68.5

10.9

1.3

15.5

52.9

31.6

6.0

16.6

54.0
50.0
57.8
52.7
50.0
53.8
51.3
48.2
48.0
49.3
48.2
51.7
50.6
51.5
53.7
60.0
48.8
51.3
55.8
55.5
49.6
59.1
50.7
59.2
47.6
51.4
49.8
56.3
60.2
55.3
48.2
50.1
57.0
51.4
57.2
49.9
48.4
49.3
54.7
50.2
50.6
57.7
56.6
56.7
51.8

30.6
34.5
24.2
31.3
34.7
29.9
32.0
36.4
37.0
39.3
35.9
32.0
32.8
31.8
28.7
20.2
36.1
32.8
25.5
27.8
36.0
21.5
33.3
22.3
36.4
31.7
34.1
26.3
12.9
27.7
36.1
33.9
25.0
32.6
25.5
33.4
35.5
36.1
29.2
34.0
33.3
24.3
26.2
24.4
31.7

7.1
11.5
4.9
9.2
11.5
8.0
11.0
14.0
14.5
12.8
13.8
10.7
11.9
10.3
8.8
3.7
13.3
9.4
5.9
6.2
11.1
3.6
10.7
3.2
14.1
10.4
12.8
6.0
1.7
6.6
15.3
11.5
5.3
10.0
5.0
12.9
13.9
11.0
7.6
11.0
10.9
4.7
5.5
5.3
10.3

106

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.9 (continued)


2050

2100

Country or area

0-14

2011
15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

0-14

15-59

60+

80+

Tunisia ................................................

23.3

66.6

10.1

1.2

15.8

55.3

28.9

4.6

16.0

Turkey.................................................

26.0

64.7

9.3

0.9

16.1

58.0

26.0

4.3

15.4

Turkmenistan ......................................

28.8

65.0

6.2

0.8

18.2

61.7

20.1

2.7

15.7

Uganda ................................................

48.4

47.8

3.9

0.3

35.6

58.6

5.7

0.5

21.0

Ukraine................................................

14.4

64.7

20.9

3.5

16.3

51.7

32.1

6.1

17.4

United Arab Emirates..........................

16.9

81.9

1.2

0.1

11.3

52.4

36.3

4.2

14.0

United Kingdom..................................

17.4

59.8

22.8

4.7

17.2

53.2

29.6

9.0

16.9

United Republic of Tanzania...............

44.8

50.3

4.9

0.4

38.0

55.6

6.4

0.6

24.6

United States of America ....................

20.1

61.2

18.8

3.8

18.8

54.6

26.6

7.9

17.5

United States Virgin Islands................

19.9

58.2

21.9

2.8

14.8

55.3

29.9 11.1

15.2

Uruguay ..............................................

22.3

59.3

18.4

3.7

16.7

55.9

27.4

6.7

15.9

Uzbekistan ..........................................

28.9

64.8

6.3

0.9

17.3

61.2

21.5

3.3

15.3

Vanuatu...............................................

37.9

56.6

5.5

0.5

26.9

60.3

12.7

1.6

18.2

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)....

29.1

62.0

8.9

1.0

18.4

59.3

22.3

4.4

15.2

Viet Nam.............................................

23.2

68.2

8.6

1.3

14.7

54.4

30.8

6.2

15.5

Western Sahara ...................................

28.2

67.6

4.2

0.3

17.6

59.4

23.0

2.6

15.6

Yemen.................................................

44.0

51.9

4.1

0.3

30.1

61.0

8.9

0.7

19.1

Zambia ................................................

46.5

48.8

4.7

0.4

43.7

52.1

4.2

0.3

30.2

Zimbabwe ...........................................

38.2

55.8

6.0

0.7

23.6

64.0

12.4

0.9

16.4

50.8
50.1
52.8
60.4
53.5
48.3
50.0
59.7
51.3
48.3
50.2
51.5
56.1
50.2
49.0
52.0
57.4
59.3
54.4

33.1
34.5
31.4
18.5
29.1
37.8
33.1
15.7
31.2
36.6
33.9
33.1
25.7
34.6
35.5
32.4
23.6
10.5
29.2

11.0
10.8
8.7
3.0
8.9
12.9
12.3
2.7
10.9
13.5
11.7
10.1
6.1
11.4
13.3
9.0
5.0
1.4
7.5

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

107

108

TABLE S.10. TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE OLDEST AND TEN COUNTRIES WITH THE YOUNGEST POPULATIONS, 1950, 2011, 2050 AND 2100
(MEDIUM VARIANT)
1950
Rank Country or area

2011
Median
age

2050
Median
age
Rank Country or area

Country or area

2100
Median
age
Rank Country or area

Median
age

A. Oldest population

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Channel Islands
Austria
Belgium
Germany
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
France
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway

35.7
35.7
35.5
35.4
35.0
34.9
34.5
34.3
33.2
32.7

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Japan
Germany
Italy
Channel Islands
China, Hong Kong SAR
Austria
Finland
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Switzerland

45.0
44.7
43.5
43.0
42.2
42.2
42.1
42.0
41.8
41.8

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Bosnia and Herzegovina


Japan
Portugal
Cuba
Republic of Korea
China, Macao SAR
Singapore
Netherlands Antilles
China, Hong Kong SAR
Malta

53.2
52.3
52.1
52.0
51.8
51.6
51.4
51.3
50.7
50.6

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Qatar
Maldives
United Arab Emirates
Costa Rica
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Albania
Cape Verde
Puerto Rico
Syrian Arab Republic

52.5
51.1
50.2
49.3
49.2
48.7
48.6
48.6
48.4
48.2

Zambia
Malawi
Niger
Somalia
United Republic of Tanzania
Uganda
Mali
Burkina Faso
Nigeria
Chad

17.9
19.6
19.6
19.7
20.9
22.0
22.1
22.2
23.1
23.9

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Zambia
Somalia
Malawi
Niger
United Republic of Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Guinea-Bissau
Nigeria
Mali
Comoros

26.4
29.2
29.4
30.5
31.6
32.9
33.6
33.7
34.0
35.2

WORLD

37.9

WORLD

41.9

B. Youngest population
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Niger
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Tonga
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea
Grenada
Paraguay
Djibouti
Samoa
Fiji
Vanuatu

15.2
15.4
15.5
15.9
16.3
16.5
16.5
16.6
16.6
16.8

WORLD

23.9

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Niger
Uganda
Mali
Zambia
Afghanistan
Angola
Timor-Leste
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Malawi
Burkina Faso

15.5
15.8
16.4
16.6
16.7
16.7
16.8
16.8
16.9
17.2

WORLD

29.4

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

TABLE S.11. MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION BY COUNTRY, 1950, 1980, 2011, 2050 AND 2100
(MEDIUM VARIANT)
Median age
Country or area

1950

1980

2011

2050

2100

World ................................................

23.9

23.1

29.4

37.9

41.9

Afghanistan........................................
Albania...............................................
Algeria ...............................................
Angola................................................
Argentina ...........................................
Armenia .............................................
Aruba .................................................
Australia.............................................
Austria................................................
Azerbaijan..........................................
Bahamas.............................................
Bahrain...............................................
Bangladesh.........................................
Barbados ............................................
Belarus ...............................................
Belgium..............................................
Belize .................................................
Benin..................................................
Bhutan................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) ..........
Bosnia and Herzegovina ....................
Botswana............................................
Brazil..................................................
Brunei Darussalam.............................
Bulgaria..............................................
Burkina Faso ......................................
Burundi ..............................................
Cambodia ...........................................
Cameroon...........................................
Canada ...............................................
Cape Verde ........................................
Central African Republic ...................
Chad...................................................
Channel Islands..................................
Chile...................................................
China..................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR.....................

18.6
20.6
19.9
19.4
25.7
22.4
18.5
30.4
35.7
22.8
20.7
18.9
19.3
24.6
27.2
35.5
20.8
24.2
18.0
19.2
20.0
19.2
19.2
22.4
27.3
19.5
19.5
18.7
20.3
27.7
23.0
22.5
21.5
35.7
22.2
23.8
23.7

17.2
21.3
16.9
16.7
27.3
23.5
26.0
29.4
34.7
21.1
20.2
22.3
17.2
24.5
31.3
34.1
16.4
17.4
19.2
18.7
25.9
16.6
20.4
20.7
34.2
16.7
17.3
19.5
17.8
29.2
16.4
18.9
18.1
35.3
22.6
22.4
25.1

16.7
30.5
26.6
16.7
30.6
32.3
38.6
37.1
42.2
29.8
31.3
30.7
24.6
37.8
38.4
41.4
22.1
18.0
25.0
21.9
39.8
23.1
29.5
29.2
41.8
17.2
20.4
23.3
19.4
40.0
23.3
19.6
17.2
43.0
32.5
34.9
42.2

25.3
49.4
42.0
26.5
40.2
43.7
45.8
41.7
49.3
38.8
43.3
43.1
41.3
47.9
44.5
43.2
35.9
24.5
41.6
32.1
53.2
32.2
44.9
40.2
47.4
22.2
31.1
38.5
26.7
44.0
41.9
27.6
23.9
48.2
45.1
48.7
50.7

39.2
48.6
46.5
40.3
45.8
45.2
45.0
45.0
46.8
41.5
46.0
48.2
47.9
44.8
42.9
44.0
46.5
36.3
48.1
43.3
47.1
42.3
47.5
43.1
43.6
32.9
42.6
46.2
38.0
45.8
48.6
39.1
36.9
44.5
47.2
46.2
46.5

China, Macao SAR ............................


Colombia............................................
Comoros.............................................
Congo.................................................
Costa Rica ..........................................

26.5
18.7
21.2
20.0
21.6

25.5
18.9
16.7
17.6
20.0

38.0
27.1
18.9
19.6
28.9

51.6
39.8
24.7
25.5
45.5

47.1
46.4
35.2
36.4
49.3

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

109

TABLE S.11. (continued)


Median age

110

Country or area

1950

1980

2011

2050

2100

Cte d'Ivoire.......................................
Croatia................................................
Cuba...................................................
Cyprus................................................
Czech Republic ..................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea .............
Dem. Republic of the Congo..............
Denmark ............................................
Djibouti ..............................................
Dominican Republic ..........................
Ecuador ..............................................
Egypt..................................................
El Salvador.........................................

18.3
27.9
22.3
23.7
32.7
15.9
18.1
31.7
16.5
17.0
20.6
20.4
18.5

17.2
33.6
23.9
28.3
32.9
22.9
17.3
34.3
17.2
18.3
18.4
18.5
17.3

19.3
41.7
39.0
34.5
39.6
33.1
16.8
40.7
21.7
25.4
25.9
24.7
23.5

27.3
47.6
52.0
47.2
45.8
40.4
25.2
43.3
30.7
38.2
39.4
36.9
39.3

39.2
45.1
47.7
46.3
44.9
43.1
38.2
44.2
41.1
47.2
48.0
46.5
47.7

Equatorial Guinea ..............................


Eritrea ................................................
Estonia ...............................................
Ethiopia..............................................
Fiji......................................................
Finland ...............................................
France ................................................
French Guiana....................................
French Polynesia................................
Gabon.................................................
Gambia...............................................
Georgia ..............................................
Germany ............................................
Ghana.................................................
Greece ................................................
Grenada..............................................
Guadeloupe ........................................
Guam..................................................
Guatemala ..........................................
Guinea................................................
Guinea-Bissau....................................
Guyana...............................................
Haiti ...................................................
Honduras............................................
Hungary .............................................
Iceland................................................
India ...................................................
Indonesia............................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of) ..................
Iraq.....................................................
Ireland ................................................
Israel ..................................................

23.8
17.3
29.9
17.9
16.6
27.7
34.5
26.6
17.8
28.4
19.5
27.3
35.4
17.4
26.0
16.3
20.9
22.8
17.5
21.9
20.9
20.4
20.2
18.8
30.1
26.5
21.3
20.0
22.0
22.0
30.0
25.5

17.3
16.8
33.9
17.7
19.5
32.8
32.4
23.1
19.4
22.1
17.8
29.1
36.4
17.0
34.2
18.8
22.4
22.3
17.3
18.4
19.3
18.0
19.1
16.4
34.3
26.9
20.1
19.1
18.2
16.6
26.6
25.0

20.4
19.1
39.8
19.0
26.7
42.1
40.1
24.5
29.4
21.9
17.9
37.6
44.7
20.6
41.7
25.4
37.0
29.4
19.0
18.4
19.2
24.1
21.8
21.3
40.1
35.0
25.4
28.1
27.7
18.4
35.0
30.2

26.5
28.3
43.4
32.5
36.4
43.9
42.7
31.7
42.6
29.9
25.9
48.3
49.2
28.7
47.4
42.5
46.3
38.4
28.2
25.1
24.7
42.1
33.5
34.6
45.3
41.4
37.2
41.6
47.2
25.9
40.9
35.8

38.9
40.2
43.5
44.7
44.5
44.7
44.7
41.1
47.8
39.3
38.3
46.0
45.3
40.2
45.8
47.5
45.9
45.6
40.9
37.0
33.6
45.3
43.4
46.7
43.9
44.6
45.8
46.1
47.1
37.3
44.1
45.1

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.11. (continued)


Median age
Country or area

1950

1980

2011

2050

2100

Italy ....................................................
Jamaica ..............................................
Japan ..................................................
Jordan.................................................
Kazakhstan.........................................
Kenya.................................................
Kuwait................................................
Kyrgyzstan .........................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic ..............
Latvia .................................................
Lebanon .............................................
Lesotho ..............................................
Liberia................................................

28.6
22.2
22.3
17.2
23.2
20.0
21.5
25.3
19.8
30.5
23.2
19.8
19.3

34.2
19.2
32.6
15.5
23.5
15.0
20.8
20.8
17.9
34.9
19.8
17.6
17.2

43.5
27.3
45.0
21.2
29.2
18.6
28.6
24.1
21.9
40.3
29.5
20.5
18.2

49.6
41.7
52.3
36.4
34.7
24.6
38.8
33.3
38.9
45.2
44.7
28.4
24.4

46.4
45.8
47.8
47.4
39.1
36.1
42.6
39.0
47.1
43.8
46.8
38.8
35.5

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.....................


Lithuania ............................................
Luxembourg.......................................
Madagascar ........................................
Malawi ...............................................
Malaysia.............................................
Maldives ............................................
Mali....................................................
Malta ..................................................
Martinique..........................................
Mauritania..........................................
Mauritius............................................
Mayotte ..............................................
Mexico ...............................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ................
Mongolia............................................
Montenegro........................................
Morocco .............................................
Mozambique ......................................
Myanmar............................................
Namibia..............................................
Nepal..................................................
Netherlands ........................................
Netherlands Antilles...........................
New Caledonia...................................
New Zealand ......................................
Nicaragua ...........................................
Niger ..................................................
Nigeria ...............................................
Norway ..............................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory...........
Oman..................................................

19.0
27.8
35.0
20.9
17.1
19.8
18.6
20.8
23.7
21.9
17.9
17.3
30.3
18.7
19.8
25.0
21.3
17.7
19.1
22.9
20.9
19.3
28.0
23.3
22.5
29.4
18.2
15.2
19.1
32.7
17.3
18.8

16.5
32.0
35.0
17.0
16.4
19.6
17.4
17.6
29.1
23.5
17.0
20.9
15.3
17.5
16.3
17.8
26.8
18.5
18.0
19.6
16.7
18.8
31.2
24.2
21.7
27.9
16.4
16.1
18.0
33.3
15.1
17.4

26.0
39.5
39.0
18.3
16.9
26.3
25.2
16.4
39.7
39.8
19.9
32.8
17.3
27.0
21.0
25.8
36.2
26.7
17.9
28.6
21.4
21.8
41.1
38.3
30.6
36.7
22.4
15.5
18.5
39.0
18.4
26.5

39.9
45.0
43.8
25.1
19.6
36.9
48.3
22.1
50.6
49.9
27.1
45.5
28.4
41.8
32.3
35.2
45.3
40.8
24.3
41.8
32.0
36.6
44.8
51.3
41.3
41.3
38.5
19.6
23.1
42.0
27.6
43.7

47.4
43.4
45.3
36.6
29.4
44.8
51.1
34.0
46.0
46.8
37.8
44.5
43.6
47.9
43.6
39.9
45.7
46.6
36.8
44.8
42.5
46.3
44.7
45.2
46.2
44.3
48.1
30.5
33.7
44.2
40.4
49.2

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

111

TABLE S.11. (continued)


Median age

112

Country or area

1950

1980

2011

2050

2100

Pakistan..............................................
Panama...............................................
Papua New Guinea.............................
Paraguay ............................................
Peru ....................................................
Philippines .........................................
Poland ................................................
Portugal..............................................
Puerto Rico ........................................
Qatar ..................................................
Republic of Korea ..............................
Republic of Moldova .........................
Runion..............................................

19.8
20.2
20.3
16.5
19.1
18.2
25.8
26.1
18.4
18.9
19.0
26.6
20.3

18.3
19.3
17.3
18.4
18.8
18.0
29.5
30.6
24.6
23.5
22.2
27.7
19.8

22.0
27.6
20.6
23.3
25.9
22.4
38.3
41.4
34.7
32.1
38.4
35.4
30.2

34.7
38.9
29.1
34.2
39.5
32.5
47.4
52.1
46.1
43.2
51.8
47.9
40.3

45.1
46.7
39.9
44.7
47.0
43.8
44.7
47.7
48.4
52.5
46.9
45.0
44.8

Romania .............................................
Russian Federation.............................
Rwanda ..............................................
Saint Lucia .........................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines ..........
Samoa ................................................
Sao Tome and Principe ......................
Saudi Arabia ......................................
Senegal...............................................
Serbia .................................................
Sierra Leone.......................................
Singapore ...........................................
Slovakia .............................................
Slovenia .............................................
Solomon Islands.................................
Somalia ..............................................
South Africa.......................................
Spain ..................................................
Sri Lanka............................................
Sudan .................................................
Suriname ............................................
Swaziland...........................................
Sweden...............................................
Switzerland ........................................
Syrian Arab Republic.........................
Tajikistan ...........................................
TFYR Macedonia...............................
Thailand .............................................
Timor-Leste .......................................
Togo...................................................
Tonga .................................................
Trinidad and Tobago..........................

26.1
25.0
17.2
20.7
15.4
16.6
24.5
19.0
19.2
25.8
20.4
20.0
27.0
27.7
18.3
19.5
20.9
27.5
21.6
18.1
20.1
18.4
34.3
33.2
20.3
22.3
22.3
18.6
19.6
19.4
15.5
20.7

30.7
31.3
15.9
17.3
17.4
18.2
16.6
17.8
16.4
31.5
19.5
24.5
28.7
31.7
16.3
16.8
19.1
30.7
21.9
17.6
18.8
15.6
36.2
34.6
15.6
18.0
26.4
19.7
19.2
16.7
18.3
21.6

38.8
38.1
18.6
27.8
28.2
21.0
19.5
26.2
18.0
37.8
18.4
38.1
37.3
42.0
20.1
17.5
25.1
40.5
31.0
19.9
27.9
19.7
40.8
41.8
21.5
20.6
36.3
34.6
16.8
19.9
21.3
31.2

48.0
43.1
24.5
43.6
41.3
28.2
30.7
38.9
25.7
46.5
27.0
51.4
47.6
48.2
29.0
19.7
33.5
48.9
41.5
28.2
40.6
29.0
43.0
49.3
37.1
31.8
49.0
46.8
25.0
29.7
28.6
44.4

44.5
42.3
36.7
47.9
45.6
39.5
42.5
48.7
37.7
45.7
39.1
47.0
44.4
46.1
41.2
29.2
42.2
47.5
46.0
40.2
45.3
41.1
45.1
46.6
48.2
43.7
46.3
45.5
40.1
41.5
38.9
44.5

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.11. (continued)


Median age
Country or area

1950

1980

2011

2050

2100

Tunisia ...............................................
Turkey................................................
Turkmenistan .....................................
Uganda...............................................
Ukraine ..............................................
United Arab Emirates.........................
United Kingdom.................................
United Republic of Tanzania .............
United States of America ...................
United States Virgin Islands...............
Uruguay .............................................
Uzbekistan .........................................
Vanuatu..............................................

20.9
19.7
23.5
18.2
27.6
18.9
34.9
16.9
30.0
22.0
27.8
24.1
16.8

18.5
19.5
18.7
16.1
33.8
26.0
34.4
16.7
30.0
22.0
30.2
18.8
17.5

29.4
28.7
24.9
15.8
39.4
30.8
39.9
17.5
37.0
39.1
33.9
24.6
20.8

43.3
42.3
38.1
22.0
44.2
49.5
42.9
20.9
40.0
44.9
42.5
39.2
29.2

45.8
46.9
45.2
35.2
42.7
50.2
44.7
31.6
43.2
47.9
46.0
46.3
40.2

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)...


Viet Nam............................................
Western Sahara ..................................
Yemen................................................
Zambia ...............................................
Zimbabwe ..........................................

18.3
24.5
18.7
18.9
17.5
19.0

19.1
19.1
21.3
15.3
16.3
15.5

26.4
28.7
26.9
17.6
16.6
19.7

38.5
45.8
39.1
26.2
17.9
30.9

47.0
47.4
45.9
38.8
26.4
43.4

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

113

114

TABLE S.12. TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE LOWEST TOTAL FERTILITY, 1975-1980, 2005-2010, 2045-2050 AND 2095-2100
(MEDIUM VARIANT)
1975-1980

Rank Country or area

2005-2010
Total fertility
(average
number of
children
per woman)

Rank Country or area

2045-2050
Total fertility
(average
number of
children per
woman)

Rank Country or area

2095-2100
Total fertility
(average
number of
children per
woman)

Rank Country or area

Total fertility
(average
number of
children per
woman)

A. Highest fertility

1.
2.
3.
4.

Yemen
Rwanda
Oman
Mayotte

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

5.
6.
7.
8.

Cte dIvoire
Afghanistan
Kenya
Niger
Occupied Palestinian
9. Territory
10. Malawi

8.58
8.25
8.10

1.
2.
3.
4.

7.81
7.70
7.64
7.63

5.
6.
7.
8.

7.50
7.50

Niger
Afghanistan
Timor-Leste
Mali

Somalia
Uganda
Zambia
Chad
Dem. Republic of the
9. Congo
10. Malawi

7.19
6.62
6.53
6.46

1.
2.
3.
4.

6.40
6.38
6.20
6.20

5.
6.
7.
8.

6.07
6.00

Zambia
Somalia
Niger
Malawi
United Republic of
Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Mali
Nigeria

9. Uganda
10. Guinea-Bissau

4.53
4.39
4.22
4.04

1.
2.
3.
4.

3.61
3.59
3.48
3.41

5.
6.
7.
8.

3.19
3.17

Zambia
Malawi
Somalia
Niger
United Republic of
Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Guinea-Bissau
Nigeria

9. Kyrgyzstan
10. Mali

2.82
2.55
2.52
2.43
2.31
2.26
2.22
2.20
2.14
2.13

B. Lowest fertility
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

China, Macao SAR


Luxembourg
Germany
Channel Islands
Switzerland

1.41
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.54

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Netherlands
Austria
Sweden
Finland
Denmark

1.60
1.65
1.66
1.66
1.68

6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

WORLD

3.84

China, Hong Kong SAR


China, Macao SAR
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Singapore
Slovakia

0.99
1.02
1.18
1.25
1.27

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Republic of Korea
Poland
Japan
Malta
Romania

1.29
1.32
1.32
1.33
1.33

6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

WORLD

2.52

Oman
Maldives
Bhutan
Bangladesh
United Arab Emirates
Lao People's Dem.
Republic
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Saint Lucia
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Cambodia

1.49
1.50
1.56
1.58
1.59

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

1.60
1.61
1.61
1.61
1.62

6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

WORLD

2.17

Mayotte
Togo
Burundi
Angola
Ethiopia

1.77
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.84

Honduras
Swaziland
Micronesia (Fed. States of)
Djibouti
Pakistan

1.84
1.84
1.84
1.85
1.85

WORLD

2.03

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York:
United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

TABLE S.13. THE FIFTEENTH COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE LARGEST AND THE FIFTEENTH COUNTRIES OR AREAS
WITH THE SMALLEST TOTAL FERTILITY CHANGE BETWEEN 1975-1980 AND 2005-2010 AMONG COUNTRIES
WITH TOTAL FERTILITY IN 1975-1980 GREATER OR EQUAL TO 4 CHILDREN PER WOMAN
Total fertility
(average number of children
per woman)
Rank

Country or area

1975-1980

Change from 1975-1980


to 2005-2010

2005-2010

Difference

Percentage

A. Largest fertility change


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Maldives
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Oman
Viet Nam
United Arab Emirates
Algeria

6.85
6.27
8.10
5.89
5.66
7.18

1.90
1.77
2.52
1.89
1.86
2.38

-4.95
-4.51
-5.58
-4.00
-3.80
-4.79

-72.3
-71.9
-68.9
-68.0
-67.2
-66.8

Bangladesh
Tunisia
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Mongolia
Albania
Bhutan
Qatar
Cape Verde
Saint Lucia

6.65
5.69
7.38
6.65
4.20
6.67
6.11
6.62
5.20

2.38
2.04
2.72
2.50
1.60
2.61
2.40
2.60
2.05

-4.26
-3.65
-4.66
-4.15
-2.60
-4.06
-3.70
-4.01
-3.15

-64.2
-64.1
-63.1
-62.4
-61.9
-60.9
-60.6
-60.6
-60.6

5.36
7.19
6.07
5.22
6.46
6.20
6.40
6.38
5.27
6.62
5.94
6.20
5.61
5.58
3.99

-0.32
-0.44
-0.39
-0.42
-0.55
-0.54
-0.60
-0.72
-0.84
-1.08
-1.07
-1.18
-1.15
-1.15
-0.90

-5.6
-5.7
-6.0
-7.4
-7.8
-8.0
-8.6
-10.1
-13.8
-14.0
-15.3
-15.9
-17.0
-17.1
-18.4

B. Smallest fertility change


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Equatorial Guinea
Niger
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Sierra Leone
Mali
Chad
Somalia
Uganda
Guinea-Bissau
Afghanistan
Burkina Faso
Zambia
Nigeria
United Republic of Tanzania
Samoa

5.68
7.63
6.46
5.63
7.01
6.74
7.00
7.10
6.11
7.70
7.02
7.38
6.76
6.73
4.89

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

115

TABLE S.14. TOTAL FERTILITY BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS (MEDIUM VARIANT)
Total fertility (average number of children per woman)
Country or area

1975-1980 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

World ................................................

3.84

2.62

2.52

2.45

2.39

2.33

2.17

2.03

Afghanistan........................................
Albania...............................................
Algeria ...............................................

7.70
4.20
7.18

7.35
1.99
2.53

6.62
1.60
2.38

5.97
1.52
2.14

5.35
1.47
1.96

4.77
1.45
1.82

2.88
1.63
1.66

1.88
1.97
1.97

Angola ...............................................
Argentina ...........................................
Armenia .............................................
Aruba .................................................
Australia.............................................
Austria ...............................................
Azerbaijan..........................................
Bahamas.............................................
Bahrain...............................................
Bangladesh.........................................
Barbados ............................................
Belarus ...............................................
Belgium .............................................
Belize .................................................
Benin..................................................
Bhutan................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) ..........
Bosnia and Herzegovina ....................
Botswana............................................
Brazil .................................................
Brunei Darussalam.............................
Bulgaria..............................................
Burkina Faso......................................
Burundi ..............................................
Cambodia...........................................
Cameroon...........................................
Canada ...............................................
Cape Verde ........................................
Central African Republic ...................
Chad...................................................
Channel Islands..................................
Chile...................................................

7.20
3.44
2.50
2.45
1.99
1.65
3.62
2.95
5.23
6.65
2.16
2.09
1.71
6.20
7.00
6.67
5.80
2.24
6.37
4.31
4.71
2.17
7.02
6.80
4.70
6.40
1.73
6.62
5.95
6.74
1.52
2.80

6.63
2.35
1.72
1.82
1.75
1.39
2.00
1.87
2.62
2.87
1.50
1.24
1.69
3.35
5.79
3.29
3.96
1.28
3.18
2.25
2.28
1.25
6.14
5.41
3.41
4.92
1.52
3.28
5.30
6.54
1.41
2.00

5.79
2.25
1.74
1.74
1.93
1.38
2.16
1.91
2.63
2.38
1.53
1.39
1.79
2.94
5.48
2.61
3.50
1.18
2.90
1.90
2.11
1.46
5.94
4.66
2.80
4.67
1.65
2.60
4.85
6.20
1.42
1.90

5.14
2.17
1.74
1.67
1.95
1.35
2.15
1.88
2.43
2.16
1.58
1.48
1.83
2.68
5.08
2.26
3.23
1.13
2.62
1.80
1.98
1.55
5.75
4.05
2.42
4.29
1.69
2.28
4.42
5.74
1.51
1.83

4.54
2.10
1.73
1.63
1.97
1.36
2.14
1.84
2.27
1.98
1.62
1.56
1.87
2.48
4.69
2.03
3.00
1.14
2.40
1.72
1.88
1.62
5.53
3.53
2.17
3.93
1.73
2.07
4.02
5.25
1.59
1.78

4.00
2.03
1.74
1.64
1.99
1.43
2.14
1.82
2.13
1.84
1.66
1.63
1.90
2.31
4.33
1.86
2.80
1.25
2.23
1.66
1.79
1.69
5.15
3.10
1.99
3.62
1.76
1.92
3.65
4.77
1.66
1.74

2.45
1.85
1.82
1.80
2.05
1.74
2.12
1.81
1.76
1.58
1.84
1.87
2.01
1.84
3.01
1.56
2.18
1.66
1.77
1.66
1.66
1.90
3.59
2.07
1.62
2.59
1.90
1.63
2.46
2.98
1.89
1.74

1.83
1.94
2.00
2.01
2.09
2.01
2.10
1.97
1.91
1.92
2.02
2.04
2.08
1.86
2.02
1.92
1.86
1.99
1.88
1.96
1.93
2.05
2.26
1.83
1.91
1.91
2.03
1.92
1.88
1.93
2.05
1.96

China..................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR.....................
China, Macao SAR ............................
Colombia............................................
Comoros.............................................
Congo.................................................
Costa Rica..........................................

2.93
2.31
1.41
4.34
7.05
6.29
3.78

1.70
0.81
0.83
2.55
5.30
4.85
2.25

1.64
0.99
1.02
2.45
5.08
4.64
1.92

1.56
1.14
1.16
2.29
4.74
4.44
1.81

1.51
1.27
1.29
2.16
4.43
4.19
1.72

1.53
1.38
1.40
2.04
4.13
3.89
1.65

1.77
1.75
1.76
1.77
3.06
2.82
1.67

2.01
2.02
2.02
1.94
2.11
2.01
1.96

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

116

TABLE S.14. (continued)


Total fertility (average number of children per woman)
Country or area

1975-1980 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Cte dIvoire ......................................


Croatia ...............................................
Cuba...................................................
Cyprus................................................
Czech Republic ..................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea .............
Dem. Republic of the Congo..............
Denmark ............................................
Djibouti ..............................................
Dominican Republic ..........................
Ecuador..............................................
Egypt..................................................
El Salvador.........................................

7.81
2.02
2.15
2.29
2.32
2.58
6.46
1.68
6.80
4.76
5.40
5.50
5.46

5.05
1.36
1.63
1.59
1.19
2.05
6.70
1.76
4.52
2.83
2.82
3.15
2.60

4.65
1.42
1.50
1.51
1.41
2.05
6.07
1.85
3.95
2.67
2.58
2.85
2.35

4.22
1.50
1.45
1.46
1.50
1.99
5.49
1.88
3.59
2.49
2.39
2.64
2.17

3.86
1.57
1.44
1.44
1.58
1.94
4.93
1.91
3.28
2.33
2.24
2.46
2.03

3.55
1.64
1.47
1.48
1.65
1.90
4.42
1.94
3.02
2.20
2.11
2.32
1.92

2.56
1.86
1.74
1.74
1.89
1.88
2.73
2.02
2.23
1.79
1.76
1.88
1.67

1.86
2.04
2.00
2.00
2.05
1.99
1.88
2.08
1.85
1.90
1.90
1.86
1.91

Equatorial Guinea ..............................


Eritrea ................................................
Estonia ...............................................
Ethiopia..............................................
Fiji......................................................
Finland ...............................................
France ................................................
French Guiana....................................
French Polynesia................................
Gabon.................................................
Gambia...............................................
Georgia ..............................................
Germany ............................................
Ghana.................................................
Greece................................................
Grenada..............................................
Guadeloupe ........................................
Guam .................................................
Guatemala ..........................................
Guinea................................................
Guinea-Bissau....................................
Guyana...............................................
Haiti ...................................................
Honduras............................................
Hungary .............................................
Iceland ...............................................
India ...................................................
Indonesia............................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of) ..................
Iraq.....................................................
Ireland................................................
Israel ..................................................

5.68
6.50
2.06
6.76
4.00
1.66
1.86
3.30
4.23
5.10
6.34
2.39
1.52
6.69
2.32
4.30
3.06
3.52
6.20
6.91
6.11
3.94
5.80
6.60
2.12
2.29
4.89
4.73
6.27
6.80
3.25
3.47

5.64
5.19
1.39
5.60
2.98
1.75
1.88
3.68
2.35
3.78
5.46
1.58
1.35
4.55
1.28
2.43
2.06
2.74
4.60
5.80
5.66
2.43
4.00
3.72
1.30
1.99
2.96
2.38
1.96
5.12
1.97
2.91

5.36
4.68
1.64
4.60
2.75
1.84
1.97
3.27
2.16
3.35
5.10
1.58
1.36
4.34
1.46
2.30
2.14
2.54
4.15
5.45
5.27
2.33
3.55
3.31
1.34
2.10
2.73
2.19
1.77
4.86
2.10
2.91

4.98
4.24
1.70
3.85
2.60
1.87
1.99
3.14
2.03
3.20
4.69
1.53
1.46
3.99
1.54
2.17
2.06
2.41
3.84
5.03
4.88
2.19
3.16
3.00
1.43
2.10
2.54
2.06
1.59
4.53
2.10
2.91

4.51
3.84
1.76
3.24
2.47
1.91
2.00
3.02
1.92
3.06
4.30
1.51
1.55
3.68
1.61
2.06
1.99
2.30
3.56
4.63
4.59
2.07
2.85
2.75
1.51
2.10
2.38
1.94
1.45
4.23
2.10
2.84

4.04
3.49
1.80
2.81
2.35
1.93
2.02
2.91
1.83
2.93
3.93
1.53
1.62
3.41
1.67
1.96
1.94
2.21
3.31
4.27
4.30
1.97
2.61
2.55
1.59
2.10
2.26
1.85
1.36
3.96
2.10
2.72

2.56
2.42
1.96
1.87
1.96
2.02
2.06
2.46
1.68
2.44
2.67
1.75
1.87
2.53
1.88
1.73
1.89
1.92
2.48
2.94
3.17
1.79
1.96
1.95
1.84
2.10
1.87
1.71
1.61
2.96
2.10
2.27

1.87
1.86
2.07
1.84
1.91
2.08
2.09
2.02
1.93
1.97
1.91
2.00
2.05
1.91
2.04
1.91
2.02
1.95
1.92
1.99
2.22
1.96
1.85
1.84
2.03
2.10
1.88
1.95
1.98
2.07
2.10
1.93

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

117

TABLE S.14. (continued)

Total fertility (average number of children per woman)


Country or area

1975-1980 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Italy....................................................
Jamaica ..............................................
Japan ..................................................
Jordan.................................................
Kazakhstan.........................................
Kenya.................................................
Kuwait ...............................................
Kyrgyzstan.........................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic ..............
Latvia .................................................
Lebanon .............................................
Lesotho ..............................................
Liberia................................................

1.94
4.00
1.83
7.38
3.06
7.64
5.89
4.05
6.15
2.00
4.31
5.69
6.93

1.25
2.54
1.30
3.60
2.01
5.00
2.24
2.50
3.70
1.25
2.09
3.79
5.69

1.38
2.40
1.32
3.27
2.54
4.80
2.32
2.70
3.02
1.41
1.86
3.37
5.42

1.48
2.26
1.42
2.89
2.48
4.62
2.25
2.62
2.54
1.51
1.76
3.05
5.04

1.56
2.14
1.51
2.60
2.43
4.34
2.20
2.55
2.24
1.59
1.68
2.79
4.67

1.63
2.05
1.58
2.38
2.38
4.01
2.16
2.49
2.04
1.66
1.63
2.58
4.33

1.88
1.82
1.84
1.76
2.24
2.89
2.09
2.29
1.60
1.89
1.64
1.99
3.06

2.05
1.95
2.04
1.86
2.13
1.97
2.09
2.14
1.91
2.05
1.95
1.86
2.05

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.....................


Lithuania ............................................
Luxembourg.......................................
Madagascar ........................................
Malawi ...............................................
Malaysia.............................................
Maldives ............................................
Mali....................................................
Malta..................................................
Martinique..........................................
Mauritania..........................................
Mauritius............................................
Mayotte ..............................................
Mexico ...............................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ................
Mongolia............................................
Montenegro........................................
Morocco.............................................
Mozambique ......................................
Myanmar............................................
Namibia..............................................
Nepal..................................................
Netherlands ........................................
Netherlands Antilles...........................
New Caledonia...................................
New Zealand......................................
Nicaragua...........................................
Niger ..................................................
Nigeria ...............................................
Norway ..............................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory ..........
Oman .................................................

7.38
2.12
1.49
7.00
7.50
3.93
6.85
7.01
2.12
2.65
6.57
3.11
7.91
5.25
6.40
6.65
2.37
5.90
6.53
4.90
6.60
5.92
1.60
2.45
3.91
2.18
6.35
7.63
6.76
1.81
7.50
8.10

3.00
1.28
1.65
5.28
6.03
2.96
2.49
6.71
1.41
1.98
5.04
1.93
4.45
2.55
4.05
2.10
1.78
2.52
5.52
2.25
3.81
3.74
1.73
2.09
2.26
1.95
3.00
7.40
5.79
1.81
5.05
3.01

2.72
1.41
1.62
4.83
6.00
2.72
1.90
6.46
1.33
1.91
4.71
1.66
4.30
2.41
3.62
2.50
1.69
2.38
5.11
2.08
3.40
2.95
1.74
1.98
2.19
2.14
2.76
7.19
5.61
1.92
4.65
2.52

2.41
1.50
1.68
4.49
5.97
2.57
1.67
6.12
1.28
1.82
4.36
1.59
4.18
2.23
3.31
2.45
1.63
2.18
4.71
1.94
3.06
2.59
1.79
1.90
2.09
2.14
2.50
6.92
5.43
1.95
4.27
2.15

2.17
1.57
1.74
4.19
5.87
2.45
1.49
5.78
1.29
1.75
4.04
1.55
3.84
2.07
3.04
2.40
1.59
2.03
4.33
1.83
2.78
2.33
1.84
1.84
2.00
2.13
2.30
6.69
5.22
1.97
3.93
1.89

1.98
1.64
1.79
3.90
5.52
2.34
1.36
5.31
1.36
1.73
3.74
1.56
3.47
1.94
2.82
2.36
1.60
1.90
3.98
1.74
2.57
2.14
1.87
1.81
1.93
2.13
2.15
6.23
4.86
1.99
3.63
1.71

1.61
1.87
1.95
2.91
4.04
1.97
1.50
3.48
1.71
1.83
2.73
1.78
2.39
1.70
2.15
2.22
1.76
1.65
2.74
1.64
1.95
1.73
1.99
1.86
1.75
2.11
1.74
4.22
3.41
2.05
2.65
1.49

1.94
2.04
2.07
2.04
2.55
1.90
1.95
2.13
2.00
2.02
1.97
2.01
1.77
1.95
1.84
2.13
1.99
1.93
1.94
1.94
1.85
1.89
2.08
2.02
1.91
2.10
1.88
2.43
2.20
2.09
1.91
1.94

118

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.14. (continued)


Total fertility (average number of children per woman)
Country or area

1975-1980 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Pakistan..............................................
Panama...............................................
Papua New Guinea.............................
Paraguay ............................................
Peru....................................................
Philippines .........................................
Poland ................................................
Portugal..............................................
Puerto Rico ........................................
Qatar ..................................................
Republic of Korea..............................
Republic of Moldova .........................
Runion..............................................

6.60
4.05
5.87
5.20
5.38
5.46
2.26
2.55
2.76
6.11
2.92
2.44
3.12

4.00
2.70
4.35
3.48
2.80
3.70
1.27
1.45
1.84
3.01
1.22
1.50
2.45

3.65
2.56
4.10
3.08
2.60
3.27
1.32
1.36
1.83
2.40
1.29
1.50
2.40

3.20
2.41
3.80
2.86
2.41
3.05
1.42
1.31
1.76
2.20
1.39
1.45
2.25

2.86
2.28
3.53
2.67
2.26
2.86
1.50
1.30
1.70
2.04
1.48
1.44
2.13

2.60
2.17
3.29
2.51
2.12
2.70
1.58
1.36
1.66
1.92
1.56
1.47
2.02

1.90
1.87
2.50
2.02
1.76
2.14
1.84
1.69
1.72
1.62
1.83
1.73
1.83

1.85
1.94
1.93
1.86
1.89
1.85
2.03
1.99
1.97
1.90
2.03
2.00
1.98

Romania.............................................
Russian Federation.............................
Rwanda ..............................................
Saint Lucia .........................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines..........
Samoa ................................................
Sao Tome and Principe ......................
Saudi Arabia ......................................
Senegal...............................................
Serbia .................................................
Sierra Leone.......................................
Singapore ...........................................
Slovakia .............................................
Slovenia .............................................
Solomon Islands.................................
Somalia ..............................................
South Africa.......................................
Spain ..................................................
Sri Lanka............................................
Sudan .................................................
Suriname ............................................
Swaziland...........................................
Sweden...............................................
Switzerland ........................................
Syrian Arab Republic.........................
Tajikistan ...........................................
TFYR Macedonia ..............................
Thailand .............................................
Timor-Leste .......................................
Togo...................................................
Tonga .................................................
Trinidad and Tobago..........................

2.52
1.94
8.25
5.20
4.42
4.89
6.50
7.28
7.50
2.37
5.63
1.84
2.46
2.20
7.04
7.00
5.00
2.55
3.61
6.52
4.20
6.73
1.66
1.54
7.32
5.90
2.55
3.92
4.31
7.28
5.50
3.40

1.28
1.30
5.60
2.10
2.24
4.42
4.34
3.54
5.36
1.72
5.56
1.33
1.22
1.23
4.60
6.50
2.80
1.29
2.27
5.13
2.60
4.01
1.67
1.41
3.39
3.81
1.56
1.68
6.96
4.83
4.23
1.61

1.33
1.44
5.43
2.05
2.13
3.99
3.85
3.03
5.03
1.62
5.22
1.25
1.27
1.39
4.40
6.40
2.55
1.41
2.36
4.60
2.42
3.57
1.90
1.46
3.10
3.45
1.46
1.63
6.53
4.30
4.03
1.64

1.43
1.53
5.28
1.91
2.00
3.76
3.49
2.64
4.61
1.56
4.73
1.37
1.37
1.48
4.04
6.28
2.38
1.50
2.24
4.22
2.27
3.17
1.93
1.54
2.77
3.16
1.40
1.53
5.92
3.86
3.78
1.63

1.51
1.61
4.91
1.79
1.88
3.56
3.18
2.37
4.22
1.54
4.25
1.47
1.47
1.56
3.73
6.23
2.24
1.59
2.13
3.88
2.14
2.86
1.95
1.61
2.52
2.92
1.37
1.46
5.31
3.48
3.56
1.62

1.59
1.67
4.44
1.70
1.78
3.37
2.92
2.17
3.88
1.55
3.81
1.55
1.55
1.63
3.45
5.95
2.13
1.66
2.04
3.56
2.03
2.62
1.97
1.67
2.31
2.72
1.40
1.44
4.73
3.17
3.36
1.62

1.84
1.89
2.98
1.61
1.66
2.70
2.17
1.67
2.74
1.76
2.42
1.84
1.82
1.86
2.56
4.39
1.79
1.89
1.84
2.54
1.80
1.94
2.04
1.88
1.74
2.11
1.70
1.70
2.77
2.26
2.65
1.75

2.04
2.05
1.88
1.94
1.95
2.03
1.85
1.89
1.93
2.00
1.86
2.04
2.03
2.04
1.90
2.52
1.89
2.05
1.97
1.90
1.96
1.84
2.09
2.04
1.87
1.85
1.99
1.99
1.89
1.83
1.99
1.99

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

119

TABLE S.14. (continued)

Total fertility (average number of children per woman)


Country or area

1975-1980 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

Tunisia ...............................................
Turkey................................................
Turkmenistan .....................................
Uganda...............................................
Ukraine ..............................................
United Arab Emirates ........................
United Kingdom ................................
United Republic of Tanzania .............
United States of America ...................
United States Virgin Islands ..............
Uruguay .............................................
Uzbekistan .........................................
Vanuatu..............................................

5.69
4.72
5.32
7.10
2.00
5.66
1.73
6.73
1.79
4.34
2.89
5.58
5.75

2.04
2.23
2.76
6.75
1.15
2.38
1.66
5.66
2.04
2.15
2.20
2.55
4.30

2.04
2.15
2.50
6.38
1.39
1.86
1.83
5.58
2.07
2.05
2.12
2.46
4.00

1.91
2.02
2.32
5.90
1.48
1.71
1.87
5.50
2.08
1.94
2.04
2.26
3.75

1.80
1.91
2.17
5.42
1.57
1.60
1.90
5.36
2.08
1.85
1.98
2.11
3.52

1.72
1.82
2.05
4.97
1.64
1.53
1.93
5.02
2.08
1.78
1.93
1.99
3.33

1.72
1.69
1.74
3.19
1.87
1.59
2.02
3.61
2.09
1.70
1.84
1.70
2.62

1.99
1.94
1.90
1.99
2.05
1.96
2.08
2.31
2.10
1.95
1.97
1.91
1.97

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)...


Viet Nam............................................
Western Sahara ..................................
Yemen................................................
Zambia ...............................................
Zimbabwe ..........................................

4.47
5.89
6.10
8.58
7.38
7.30

2.72
1.93
3.01
6.10
6.10
3.74

2.55
1.89
2.70
5.48
6.20
3.47

2.39
1.75
2.45
4.94
6.30
3.11

2.26
1.65
2.27
4.39
6.30
2.83

2.14
1.58
2.12
3.97
5.98
2.60

1.81
1.71
1.73
2.75
4.53
1.91

1.90
1.99
1.89
2.01
2.82
1.86

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

120

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

TABLE S.15. THE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AND THE TEN COUNTRIES OR AREAS WITH THE LOWEST LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH,
2005-2010, 2045-2050 AND 2095-2100
2005-2010

Rank

Country or area

2045-2050
Life expectancy

Rank

Country or area

2095-2100
Life expectancy

Rank

Country or area

Life expectancy

A. Highest life expectancy at birth


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Japan
Switzerland
China, Hong Kong SAR
Australia
Italy
Iceland
France
Sweden

9. Israel
10. Singapore

82.7
81.8
81.6
81.4
81.4
81.3
81.0
80.9
80.7
80.6

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Japan
China, Hong Kong SAR
Switzerland
Israel
Australia
Iceland
France
Spain

9. Italy
10. Sweden

87.4
87.2
86.4
86.3
86.0
85.8
85.8
85.8

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Japan
China, Hong Kong SAR
Switzerland
Israel
Australia
Iceland
Spain
France

92.3
91.8
91.4
91.2
91.0
90.8
90.8
90.8

85.7
85.7

9. Sweden
10. Italy

90.7
90.6

Lesotho
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Sierra Leone
Zambia
Swaziland
Guinea-Bissau
Afghanistan
Botswana
Mozambique
Chad

58.0
61.5
61.7
62.1
62.3
62.5
62.8
63.0
63.2
63.2

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Sierra Leone
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Lesotho
Central African Republic
Afghanistan
Guinea-Bissau
Chad
Cameroon
Somalia
Angola

74.1
74.1
74.2
74.4
74.5
74.7
75.0
75.3
75.3
75.4

WORLD

75.6

WORLD

81.1

B. Lowest life expectancy at birth


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Central African Republic


Lesotho
Sierra Leone
Zimbabwe
Guinea-Bissau
Zambia
Afghanistan
Swaziland
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Chad

45.9
46.0
46.3
46.6
46.8
46.9
47.3
47.4
47.4
48.5

WORLD

67.9

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

121

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United
Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

TABLE S.16. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH, BOTH SEXES COMBINED, BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

2095-2100

World ...................................................

66.4

67.9

69.3

70.4

71.4

75.6

81.1

Afghanistan...........................................
Albania .................................................
Algeria ..................................................
Angola ..................................................
Argentina ..............................................
Armenia ................................................
Aruba ....................................................
Australia ...............................................
Austria ..................................................
Azerbaijan.............................................

46.0
75.3
71.0
47.2
74.3
72.4
74.0
80.3
78.8
67.8

47.3
76.4
72.3
49.6
75.3
73.7
74.8
81.4
80.2
70.1

49.3
77.1
73.5
51.7
76.1
74.4
75.4
82.1
81.0
70.9

51.2
77.9
74.5
53.7
77.0
75.2
76.1
82.7
81.8
71.9

53.1
78.6
75.4
55.6
77.7
75.9
76.7
83.4
82.5
72.8

62.8
81.6
79.0
64.7
80.9
79.2
79.9
86.0
85.2
77.0

Bahamas ...............................................
Bahrain .................................................
Bangladesh............................................
Barbados ...............................................
Belarus..................................................
Belgium ................................................
Belize....................................................
Benin.....................................................
Bhutan...................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) .............
Bosnia and Herzegovina .......................
Botswana ..............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Brunei Darussalam................................
Bulgaria ................................................
Burkina Faso.........................................
Burundi .................................................
Cambodia..............................................
Cameroon .............................................
Canada ..................................................
Cape Verde ...........................................
Central African Republic ......................
Chad......................................................
Channel Islands.....................................
Chile .....................................................
China.....................................................

72.6
74.0
65.9
75.7
68.5
78.2
73.8
53.3
63.5
63.9
74.4
48.7
70.9
76.7
72.1
51.2
47.0
58.8
49.5
79.7
71.0
43.6
48.1
78.3
77.9
71.6

74.8
74.6
67.8
76.2
69.4
79.8
75.3
54.6
65.8
65.6
75.1
53.3
72.2
77.5
72.7
53.9
48.8
61.5
50.0
80.5
73.5
45.9
48.5
79.5
78.6
72.7

75.9
75.3
69.4
77.1
70.8
80.0
76.3
56.8
67.7
67.1
75.9
52.7
74.0
78.2
73.7
56.0
51.1
63.7
52.5
81.2
74.2
49.5
50.1
80.2
79.3
73.8

77.5
75.8
70.9
77.8
71.8
80.6
77.6
58.8
69.4
68.8
76.5
53.6
75.1
78.8
74.4
58.0
53.1
65.8
54.5
81.8
75.2
52.3
51.7
80.8
80.0
74.7

78.3
76.5
72.2
78.5
72.8
81.2
78.1
60.7
70.9
70.5
77.1
55.3
76.0
79.4
75.1
60.0
54.7
67.8
55.8
82.3
76.0
54.4
53.5
81.5
80.6
75.6

81.1
79.6
77.0
81.3
76.4
84.0
80.1
68.7
76.1
76.1
80.2
63.0
79.4
81.7
78.6
68.2
64.4
74.3
64.3
85.0
79.3
64.2
63.2
84.3
82.9
79.1

China, Hong Kong SAR .......................


China, Macao SAR ...............................
Colombia ..............................................
Comoros ...............................................
Congo ...................................................
Costa Rica.............................................

80.5
79.1
71.7
58.5
54.5
78.2

81.6
80.0
72.9
59.7
56.0
78.9

83.2
81.3
74.0
61.7
58.0
79.5

83.8
81.9
74.9
63.5
59.7
80.1

84.4
82.5
75.6
65.2
60.9
80.6

87.2
85.4
79.2
71.5
68.1
83.3

74.5
86.1
84.2
75.4
85.6
84.1
84.8
91.0
90.2
82.6
86.7
84.8
82.7
86.0
82.3
89.1
84.3
77.1
82.3
82.2
85.0
77.9
84.0
85.3
83.8
76.7
76.3
81.3
75.3
90.1
84.4
74.4
75.0
89.3
86.4
84.2
91.8
90.2
84.3
78.3
76.7
88.1

122

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

TABLE S.16. (continued)


Life expectancy at birth (years)
Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Cte dIvoire.........................................
Croatia ..................................................
Cuba......................................................
Cyprus...................................................
Czech Republic.....................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ................
Dem. Republic of the Congo ................
Denmark ...............................................
Djibouti.................................................
Dominican Republic .............................
Ecuador.................................................
Egypt.....................................................
El Salvador ...........................................

50.5
74.9
76.9
78.3
75.5
68.0
46.6
77.2
54.6
71.5
74.2
70.5
70.4

53.0
76.0
78.5
78.9
77.0
68.4
47.4
78.3
56.6
72.5
75.0
72.3
71.4

56.4
76.9
79.3
79.9
77.9
69.1
48.9
79.0
58.5
73.8
75.9
73.5
72.5

59.1
77.7
80.1
80.5
78.6
70.0
50.4
79.7
60.6
74.7
76.7
74.5
73.5

61.2
78.5
80.7
81.0
79.3
70.9
51.9
80.4
62.4
75.5
77.5
75.5
74.4

68.2
81.5
83.1
83.4
82.4
75.5
61.5
83.3
69.6
78.7
80.6
79.1
77.9

Equatorial Guinea .................................


Eritrea ...................................................
Estonia ..................................................
Ethiopia.................................................
Fiji ........................................................
Finland..................................................
France ...................................................
French Guiana.......................................
French Polynesia...................................
Gabon ...................................................
Gambia .................................................
Georgia .................................................
Germany ...............................................
Ghana....................................................
Greece...................................................
Grenada.................................................
Guadeloupe...........................................
Guam ....................................................
Guatemala.............................................
Guinea...................................................
Guinea-Bissau.......................................
Guyana..................................................
Haiti ......................................................
Honduras...............................................
Hungary ................................................
Iceland ..................................................
India......................................................
Indonesia...............................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).....................
Iraq........................................................
Ireland...................................................
Israel .....................................................

48.8
57.5
71.3
53.2
68.0
78.3
79.6
75.1
73.2
59.3
55.9
72.5
78.7
59.4
79.0
74.3
77.9
74.6
69.0
49.7
45.6
65.7
58.9
70.8
72.6
80.5
62.5
66.4
70.5
70.1
77.6
79.6

50.1
60.0
73.9
57.2
68.8
79.3
81.0
75.9
74.5
61.3
57.3
73.0
79.8
62.7
79.5
75.3
79.4
75.5
70.3
52.4
46.8
68.7
61.0
72.1
73.6
81.3
64.2
67.9
72.1
67.3
79.7
80.7

51.5
62.2
75.0
60.0
69.4
80.2
81.7
76.7
75.4
63.3
59.0
74.1
80.6
64.7
80.1
76.2
79.9
76.4
71.5
54.7
48.8
70.3
62.5
73.6
74.7
82.0
66.0
70.0
73.3
70.2
80.8
82.0

53.1
64.1
76.0
61.8
70.3
81.0
82.4
77.4
76.3
64.9
60.5
74.8
81.4
66.1
80.6
77.0
80.6
77.2
72.6
56.8
50.8
71.8
63.9
74.5
75.6
82.6
67.4
71.7
74.3
71.0
81.4
83.0

54.5
65.8
76.8
63.7
71.1
81.7
83.1
78.1
77.1
66.3
61.9
75.5
82.1
67.4
81.2
77.7
81.1
77.9
73.6
58.7
52.7
73.2
65.3
75.4
76.5
83.2
68.7
73.2
75.3
72.0
82.0
83.7

63.5
71.8
80.0
70.6
76.0
84.5
85.8
81.2
80.3
71.7
69.3
78.9
84.9
72.7
83.6
80.6
83.9
80.9
77.6
67.2
62.5
77.3
71.6
78.9
79.9
85.8
73.7
77.6
78.9
76.8
84.7
86.3

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

2095-2100

77.1
86.4
87.0
87.8
87.6
81.3
74.1
88.4
77.6
83.9
85.4
84.2
82.8
75.7
78.4
84.9
78.0
82.1
89.5
90.8
85.8
85.2
79.3
77.3
83.9
90.0
79.3
87.9
85.4
88.5
85.6
83.2
76.4
74.7
83.0
78.6
84.0
85.3
90.8
79.5
83.1
84.2
82.6
89.7
91.2

123

TABLE S.16. (continued)


Life expectancy at birth (years)
Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Italy.......................................................
Jamaica .................................................
Japan .....................................................
Jordan ...................................................
Kazakhstan............................................
Kenya....................................................
Kuwait ..................................................
Kyrgyzstan............................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic .................
Latvia....................................................
Lebanon ................................................
Lesotho .................................................
Liberia...................................................

80.2
70.9
81.8
72.3
64.6
51.9
73.7
66.6
62.8
71.3
71.0
44.3
49.2

81.4
72.2
82.7
72.9
65.8
55.0
74.2
66.7
66.1
72.3
72.0
46.0
54.4

82.0
73.4
83.7
73.6
67.6
58.0
74.8
68.3
67.9
73.8
72.9
49.1
57.5

82.5
74.1
84.4
74.2
68.9
59.7
75.3
69.5
69.6
74.8
73.9
50.5
59.9

83.1
74.8
84.9
74.8
70.1
61.3
75.8
70.7
71.1
75.8
74.9
51.4
61.9

85.7
78.0
87.4
78.4
74.6
68.1
79.0
75.0
76.3
79.2
78.7
58.0
68.5

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya........................


Lithuania...............................................
Luxembourg..........................................
Madagascar...........................................
Malawi..................................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Maldives ...............................................
Mali ......................................................
Malta.....................................................
Martinique ............................................
Mauritania.............................................
Mauritius...............................................
Mayotte.................................................
Mexico..................................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...................
Mongolia...............................................
Montenegro...........................................
Morocco................................................
Mozambique .........................................
Myanmar...............................................
Namibia ................................................
Nepal.....................................................
Netherlands...........................................
Netherlands Antilles .............................
New Caledonia .....................................
New Zealand.........................................
Nicaragua..............................................
Niger .....................................................
Nigeria ..................................................
Norway .................................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory .............
Oman ....................................................

72.8
71.9
78.1
62.0
46.8
72.5
72.6
48.1
77.9
78.9
57.2
72.1
75.8
74.9
67.6
64.5
74.4
69.6
47.6
62.4
56.8
63.5
78.7
75.0
73.8
78.9
70.9
50.0
47.8
79.2
71.3
74.3

74.0
71.3
79.4
65.8
51.6
73.4
75.5
50.0
78.8
80.1
57.5
72.8
77.1
76.2
68.3
67.3
74.0
71.2
48.8
63.5
61.1
67.4
80.2
76.1
75.3
80.1
73.0
53.1
50.3
80.5
72.2
72.6

75.1
72.8
80.2
66.9
55.1
74.6
77.3
52.1
80.0
80.6
59.2
73.6
77.5
77.2
69.3
68.9
74.9
72.5
51.0
66.0
62.7
69.1
80.9
76.8
77.0
80.8
74.4
55.3
52.5
81.3
73.1
73.4

76.0
73.7
80.9
68.7
56.9
75.5
78.6
54.0
80.6
81.2
60.6
74.4
78.3
78.1
70.1
70.2
75.8
73.7
53.3
67.9
62.5
70.7
81.4
77.4
77.8
81.6
75.4
57.2
54.7
82.0
73.9
74.2

76.9
74.5
81.7
70.3
58.6
76.3
79.9
56.0
81.2
81.7
62.0
75.1
79.0
78.8
70.9
71.5
76.6
74.7
55.1
69.6
64.2
72.1
81.9
78.1
78.6
82.2
76.2
59.2
56.5
82.5
74.7
75.0

80.3
78.4
84.6
74.8
66.0
79.7
83.3
65.3
84.0
84.1
69.3
78.7
81.5
81.8
76.0
76.5
79.9
78.6
63.2
75.5
69.6
76.9
84.7
80.7
81.6
85.0
79.6
67.7
65.2
85.2
78.4
78.7

124

2095-2100

90.6
83.9
92.3
83.8
80.0
76.3
84.3
80.2
82.3
84.3
83.9
74.2
77.1
85.0
83.7
89.6
80.2
77.0
84.7
88.5
75.5
89.1
88.2
77.3
83.9
85.1
86.4
82.1
82.4
84.8
83.8
75.6
81.8
75.9
82.7
89.7
84.4
86.2
90.0
84.6
76.5
75.8
90.3
83.7
84.3

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.16. (continued)


Life expectancy at birth (years)
Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Pakistan.................................................
Panama .................................................
Papua New Guinea ...............................
Paraguay ...............................................
Peru.......................................................
Philippines ............................................
Poland ...................................................
Portugal.................................................
Puerto Rico ...........................................
Qatar .....................................................
Republic of Korea.................................
Republic of Moldova ............................
Runion.................................................

63.6
74.7
59.6
70.7
71.6
67.1
74.5
77.3
77.8
76.9
77.4
67.6
76.0

64.6
75.5
61.5
71.7
73.2
67.8
75.5
78.6
78.7
77.9
80.0
68.2
77.3

65.8
76.4
63.3
72.8
74.3
69.2
76.4
79.8
79.3
78.5
80.7
69.8
77.8

66.9
77.2
65.0
73.6
75.2
70.4
77.1
80.4
80.0
79.2
81.3
70.9
78.5

67.9
77.9
66.6
74.4
76.1
71.4
77.9
80.9
80.5
79.5
81.8
71.9
79.1

72.0
81.0
72.4
77.6
79.4
76.3
80.9
83.4
83.1
82.4
84.5
76.5
81.4

Romania................................................
Russian Federation................................
Rwanda .................................................
Saint Lucia............................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.............
Samoa ...................................................
Sao Tome and Principe .........................
Saudi Arabia .........................................
Senegal .................................................
Serbia....................................................
Sierra Leone..........................................
Singapore ..............................................
Slovakia ................................................
Slovenia ................................................
Solomon Islands....................................
Somalia .................................................
South Africa..........................................
Spain .....................................................
Sri Lanka ..............................................
Sudan ....................................................
Suriname...............................................
Swaziland .............................................
Sweden .................................................
Switzerland ...........................................
Syrian Arab Republic............................
Tajikistan ..............................................
TFYR Macedonia .................................
Thailand................................................
Timor-Leste ..........................................
Togo......................................................
Tonga....................................................
Trinidad and Tobago.............................

71.5
64.9
49.6
72.2
70.6
70.1
62.8
71.9
56.6
73.2
42.0
79.4
73.8
76.7
64.3
49.4
52.3
79.6
73.2
58.6
68.1
45.8
80.0
80.7
74.5
64.4
73.4
72.9
58.2
55.2
71.2
68.3

73.2
67.7
53.9
73.9
71.6
71.5
63.8
73.1
58.2
74.0
46.3
80.6
74.7
78.6
66.4
50.2
51.2
80.5
74.2
60.3
69.6
47.4
80.9
81.8
75.3
66.4
74.2
73.6
60.8
55.7
71.8
69.4

74.3
69.2
55.8
74.9
72.5
72.8
65.0
74.2
59.8
74.7
48.2
81.3
75.8
79.5
68.4
51.7
53.8
81.8
75.2
62.0
70.9
49.2
81.7
82.5
76.1
67.9
75.1
74.4
63.2
57.8
72.5
70.4

75.2
70.4
57.3
75.7
73.4
73.9
66.2
75.1
61.2
75.4
50.0
81.9
76.6
80.2
70.1
53.5
55.9
82.5
76.1
63.7
71.9
48.7
82.4
83.2
76.8
69.3
75.8
75.2
65.4
60.0
73.2
71.6

76.1
71.4
59.2
76.4
74.1
74.9
67.2
75.9
62.6
76.0
51.9
82.5
77.4
80.8
71.5
55.4
57.0
83.2
76.9
65.4
72.9
50.4
83.0
83.8
77.6
70.5
76.4
76.1
67.3
61.8
73.8
72.6

79.5
75.5
67.2
79.8
77.3
78.6
72.6
79.3
69.8
79.4
61.7
85.2
80.5
83.6
76.5
64.8
64.2
85.8
80.1
72.1
76.3
62.3
85.7
86.4
80.7
75.0
79.6
79.5
74.2
69.2
77.1
76.2

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

2095-2100

77.4
86.2
78.7
83.1
84.0
82.3
85.6
87.7
87.4
86.8
89.6
82.4
85.1
84.5
81.8
76.5
84.7
81.9
83.8
78.9
84.6
77.5
84.4
74.1
90.1
85.3
88.7
82.4
75.3
76.8
90.8
85.0
79.4
82.2
75.7
90.7
91.4
85.4
80.2
84.6
84.5
81.1
77.7
81.6
81.2

125

TABLE S.16. (continued)


Life expectancy at birth (years)
Country or area

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2045-2050

Tunisia ..................................................
Turkey...................................................
Turkmenistan ........................................
Uganda..................................................
Ukraine .................................................
United Arab Emirates ...........................
United Kingdom ...................................
United Republic of Tanzania ................
United States of America ......................
United States Virgin Islands .................
Uruguay ................................................
Uzbekistan ............................................
Vanuatu.................................................

73.0
70.9
64.2
48.0
67.6
74.9
78.4
51.7
77.2
78.1
75.3
67.2
68.4

73.9
73.0
64.6
52.2
67.5
75.9
79.6
55.4
78.0
78.9
76.4
67.4
70.0

74.8
74.3
65.2
54.7
69.0
76.8
80.4
59.3
78.8
79.6
77.3
68.8
71.4

75.6
75.1
66.8
56.1
70.3
77.4
81.0
62.1
79.4
80.2
78.1
70.0
72.7

76.5
76.0
68.2
57.3
71.3
78.0
81.5
63.9
80.1
80.8
78.8
71.0
73.8

79.8
79.4
73.4
65.0
75.7
80.7
84.3
69.8
83.0
83.5
81.8
75.2
77.9

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) .....


Viet Nam ..............................................
Western Sahara .....................................
Yemen...................................................
Zambia..................................................
Zimbabwe .............................................

72.7
73.1
63.9
61.3
42.4
43.2

73.7
74.3
65.9
63.9
46.9
46.6

74.7
75.5
67.8
66.1
49.6
53.5

75.5
76.5
69.5
68.0
51.0
57.4

76.3
77.3
71.0
69.7
53.0
59.1

79.5
80.4
76.2
75.5
62.1
65.1

2095-2100

84.7
84.5
79.3
75.8
81.9
85.7
89.4
77.8
88.2
87.6
86.4
80.4
83.3
84.6
85.2
82.3
81.8
76.2
79.0

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011).
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

126

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.17. INFANT MORTALITY RATE BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS


Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

World ...................................................
Afghanistan...........................................
Albania .................................................
Algeria ..................................................
Angola ..................................................
Argentina ..............................................
Armenia ................................................
Aruba ....................................................
Australia ...............................................
Austria ..................................................
Azerbaijan.............................................
Bahamas ...............................................
Bahrain .................................................
Bangladesh............................................
Barbados ...............................................
Belarus..................................................
Belgium ................................................
Belize....................................................
Benin.....................................................
Bhutan...................................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) .............
Bosnia and Herzegovina .......................
Botswana ..............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Brunei Darussalam................................
Bulgaria ................................................
Burkina Faso.........................................
Burundi .................................................
Cambodia..............................................
Cameroon .............................................
Canada ..................................................
Cape Verde ...........................................
Central African Republic ......................
Chad......................................................
Channel Islands.....................................
Chile .....................................................
China.....................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR .......................
China, Macao SAR ...............................
Colombia ..............................................
Comoros ...............................................
Congo ...................................................
Costa Rica.............................................
Cte dIvoire.........................................
Croatia ..................................................
Cuba......................................................
Cyprus...................................................
Czech Republic.....................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ................
127

2000-2005

50.7
143.7
20.9
29.6
116.0
15.0
29.9
17.9
5.0
4.5
52.0
18.1
9.1
59.3
14.5
9.4
4.4
20.1
90.6
52.8
55.6
14.0
58.8
27.3
5.1
13.2
85.9
107.1
72.9
96.7
5.2
28.0
113.7
133.4
10.3
8.0
24.6
2.8
5.7
20.5
77.8
75.3
10.5
84.7
6.8
6.1
5.9
3.9
28.5

2005-2010

45.6
136.0
18.3
25.0
104.3
13.4
26.2
16.1
4.7
4.0
41.1
16.0
7.2
49.0
13.7
6.8
3.8
17.2
85.1
44.4
45.6
13.4
40.7
23.5
4.8
10.2
78.9
101.1
62.4
94.1
5.2
20.6
105.4
131.2
8.8
7.2
22.0
2.0
4.4
19.1
72.2
72.4
9.9
77.2
6.0
5.1
4.6
3.2
27.4

2010-2015

41.8
124.5
16.6
21.5
96.2
12.3
24.3
14.7
4.5
3.7
37.6
14.1
6.7
41.8
12.3
6.5
3.7
16.2
76.7
38.0
40.7
12.7
35.1
19.0
4.5
9.1
71.0
94.1
52.8
84.9
4.9
18.5
95.8
123.9
8.2
6.8
19.6
2.0
4.1
16.7
62.8
66.7
9.2
68.8
5.6
5.0
4.4
3.0
25.1

2015-2020

38.8
115.2
15.0
18.6
87.7
11.1
22.4
13.6
4.2
3.5
33.1
12.5
6.2
35.0
11.2
6.2
3.6
15.2
68.4
32.6
33.9
12.2
31.5
16.6
4.3
8.4
64.0
87.2
44.0
77.4
4.7
16.3
88.3
114.8
7.6
6.4
17.7
2.0
4.0
14.9
55.0
61.1
8.5
61.1
5.1
4.8
4.3
2.9
22.3

2020-2025

35.9
106.0
13.8
16.5
79.4
10.1
20.8
12.6
4.1
3.3
29.3
11.2
5.8
29.8
10.2
5.9
3.4
14.3
61.1
28.4
27.8
11.7
28.6
14.8
4.1
8.0
57.3
80.6
36.3
71.4
4.4
14.3
81.7
105.0
7.1
6.1
16.0
2.0
3.9
13.5
48.0
56.1
8.0
54.3
4.7
4.6
4.2
2.8
20.0

2045-2050

23.4
66.6
9.7
10.5
45.1
6.6
14.3
8.5
3.3
2.6
16.5
8.0
4.3
16.1
7.3
4.7
2.8
10.6
34.2
17.0
12.4
9.2
17.1
9.0
3.4
5.7
31.7
43.4
16.1
41.0
3.4
9.2
47.3
59.0
5.2
4.9
10.4
2.0
3.3
8.1
24.0
32.3
5.6
31.2
3.6
4.0
3.8
2.3
11.1

2095-2100

11.5
33.5
5.3
5.7
17.8
3.3
8.0
4.9
2.0
1.6
7.8
4.5
2.8
8.0
4.2
3.2
1.7
5.8
15.5
9.4
3.7
6.0
8.3
3.5
2.5
3.3
13.8
15.9
7.2
17.0
1.9
5.1
18.6
21.6
2.7
3.4
5.0
2.0
2.3
3.3
10.1
15.3
2.3
14.7
2.3
3.1
3.1
1.6
5.7

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

TABLE S.17. (continued)


Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Dem. Republic of the Congo ................


Denmark ...............................................
Djibouti.................................................
Dominican Republic .............................
Ecuador.................................................
Egypt.....................................................
El Salvador ...........................................
Equatorial Guinea .................................
Eritrea ...................................................
Estonia ..................................................
Ethiopia.................................................
Fiji ........................................................
Finland..................................................
France ...................................................
French Guiana.......................................
French Polynesia...................................
Gabon ...................................................
Gambia .................................................
Georgia .................................................
Germany ...............................................
Ghana....................................................
Greece...................................................
Grenada.................................................
Guadeloupe...........................................
Guam ....................................................
Guatemala.............................................
Guinea...................................................
Guinea-Bissau.......................................
Guyana..................................................
Haiti ......................................................
Honduras...............................................
Hungary ................................................
Iceland ..................................................
India......................................................
Indonesia...............................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).....................
Iraq........................................................
Ireland...................................................
Israel .....................................................
Italy.......................................................
Jamaica .................................................
Japan .....................................................
Jordan ...................................................
Kazakhstan............................................
Kenya....................................................
Kuwait ..................................................
Kyrgyzstan............................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic .................
Latvia....................................................
Lebanon ................................................
Lesotho .................................................
128

2000-2005

119.9
4.7
91.1
35.1
24.9
33.1
26.4
110.7
61.8
7.4
87.1
19.0
3.3
4.1
15.4
8.6
57.7
80.0
31.5
4.2
61.9
4.8
16.6
8.7
9.9
38.6
104.2
125.6
48.6
69.5
31.6
7.4
2.6
60.7
34.5
32.5
35.9
5.5
5.0
4.2
26.8
3.0
23.6
32.0
69.5
9.7
40.3
58.2
9.6
25.6
86.2

2005-2010

115.8
4.0
82.1
29.6
21.1
25.9
21.5
102.5
53.9
4.7
72.5
17.9
2.8
3.5
14.0
7.7
51.1
73.8
29.3
3.7
49.6
4.6
14.6
7.0
8.9
30.1
93.2
118.7
41.7
63.1
28.1
5.8
2.1
52.9
28.8
27.2
34.6
4.0
3.8
3.5
24.4
2.6
21.0
27.0
64.7
8.1
36.4
44.5
7.5
22.7
76.9

2010-2015

109.5
3.9
75.0
21.6
19.1
22.0
19.0
93.3
47.5
4.4
62.9
17.2
2.8
3.3
12.7
7.2
43.8
66.4
25.6
3.5
43.9
4.5
13.0
6.7
8.1
26.3
84.2
109.8
36.8
58.3
23.5
5.3
2.1
47.9
24.9
23.4
33.3
3.9
3.3
3.4
22.0
2.5
19.1
23.7
58.1
7.6
32.8
36.8
6.7
20.2
62.1

2015-2020

102.4
3.8
66.5
19.5
17.1
19.0
16.9
84.7
42.1
4.1
56.1
16.3
2.8
3.2
11.6
6.7
38.6
60.1
23.1
3.3
39.9
4.3
11.9
6.4
7.4
23.2
75.8
100.8
32.9
51.8
20.6
4.9
2.0
43.8
22.2
20.7
30.5
3.8
3.0
3.3
20.2
2.5
17.8
21.4
52.9
7.1
29.9
30.4
6.2
17.9
54.2

2020-2025

95.7
3.7
58.2
17.9
15.3
16.8
15.1
76.3
37.3
3.9
49.9
15.4
2.7
3.0
10.6
6.2
34.5
54.4
21.0
3.1
35.6
4.2
10.9
6.1
6.9
20.7
68.1
92.3
29.6
45.5
18.3
4.6
2.0
40.1
20.0
18.4
26.9
3.7
2.8
3.3
18.7
2.5
16.6
19.4
48.5
6.6
27.5
25.3
5.7
15.6
49.1

2045-2050

57.4
3.2
29.0
11.2
9.3
10.5
9.3
43.1
21.9
3.1
28.6
10.8
2.5
2.4
7.5
4.9
21.8
28.0
13.2
2.5
22.0
3.6
7.8
4.9
5.0
12.3
38.1
53.9
19.6
22.7
10.8
3.5
1.9
27.1
14.2
11.9
14.3
3.3
2.0
2.9
12.1
2.3
10.7
12.7
28.8
4.8
19.1
13.0
4.2
9.9
27.0

2095-2100

20.5
2.2
11.0
4.5
3.6
5.5
4.3
17.3
11.2
2.2
14.2
6.7
1.8
1.5
4.3
3.3
12.2
13.0
6.6
1.6
12.3
2.5
4.5
3.1
3.1
4.5
16.4
19.6
11.1
8.0
4.2
2.3
1.5
15.7
8.6
6.4
7.0
2.6
1.0
2.3
5.3
1.9
5.9
7.3
14.6
3.0
11.9
6.5
2.7
5.4
10.4

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.17 (continued)


Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Liberia...................................................
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya........................
Lithuania...............................................
Luxembourg..........................................
Madagascar...........................................
Malawi..................................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Maldives ...............................................
Mali ......................................................
Malta.....................................................
Martinique ............................................
Mauritania.............................................
Mauritius...............................................
Mayotte.................................................
Mexico..................................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...................
Mongolia...............................................
Montenegro...........................................
Morocco................................................
Mozambique .........................................
Myanmar...............................................
Namibia ................................................
Nepal.....................................................
Netherlands...........................................
Netherlands Antilles .............................
New Caledonia .....................................
New Zealand.........................................
Nicaragua..............................................
Niger .....................................................
Nigeria ..................................................
Norway .................................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory .............
Oman ....................................................
Pakistan.................................................
Panama .................................................
Papua New Guinea ...............................
Paraguay ...............................................
Peru.......................................................
Philippines ............................................
Poland ...................................................
Portugal.................................................
Puerto Rico ...........................................
Qatar .....................................................
Republic of Korea.................................
Republic of Moldova ............................
Runion.................................................
Romania................................................
Russian Federation................................
Rwanda .................................................
Saint Lucia............................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.............

2000-2005

115.7
17.7
7.7
5.0
58.3
107.4
9.8
26.5
110.5
7.1
8.5
76.5
13.4
8.0
20.5
37.9
43.5
11.6
41.3
99.1
59.8
48.2
54.9
4.9
15.0
4.9
5.5
26.4
112.7
107.2
3.5
24.6
15.3
76.8
20.6
56.2
35.5
30.3
26.3
7.2
4.7
8.1
11.3
5.3
18.9
8.0
16.9
17.1
107.9
14.6
26.8

2005-2010

88.6
15.0
6.5
2.3
44.8
95.2
7.7
9.8
101.4
5.8
7.6
77.3
12.8
5.9
16.7
34.9
36.0
8.7
34.1
88.0
55.0
37.8
38.7
4.4
13.3
4.8
5.1
21.5
95.9
96.1
3.0
22.2
9.4
70.9
18.2
50.1
32.0
21.2
23.0
6.1
4.5
7.6
8.8
3.8
15.5
5.9
13.9
11.3
100.1
13.1
23.7

2010-2015

76.9
13.2
5.9
2.3
41.0
86.1
6.9
8.1
92.2
5.4
7.2
69.9
12.1
5.9
14.1
31.4
30.7
7.7
28.5
77.9
44.8
29.8
32.0
4.2
12.3
4.7
4.8
18.3
85.8
87.6
2.9
19.5
8.4
65.7
16.2
44.5
27.4
18.3
20.9
5.5
4.2
7.2
8.2
3.6
14.3
5.9
12.2
10.5
92.9
12.3
21.0

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

2015-2020

68.2
12.0
5.6
2.3
35.1
78.2
6.3
7.0
83.9
5.2
6.8
63.7
11.5
5.8
12.4
28.4
26.5
7.1
24.6
67.9
36.9
25.6
26.5
4.0
11.4
4.6
4.5
16.4
77.0
79.1
2.9
17.5
7.1
61.4
14.6
39.5
24.0
16.2
19.3
5.2
4.0
6.9
7.7
3.6
13.5
5.8
10.9
9.9
85.2
11.6
18.8

2020-2025

60.0
10.9
5.3
2.2
30.3
71.5
5.8
6.1
75.8
5.0
6.4
57.9
11.0
5.7
10.9
25.7
22.9
6.5
21.4
58.8
30.4
22.6
22.3
3.8
10.6
4.6
4.3
14.8
68.6
71.1
2.8
15.9
6.5
57.4
13.2
35.1
21.3
14.5
17.9
4.8
3.9
6.6
7.3
3.5
12.7
5.7
9.8
9.3
77.1
10.9
16.9

2045-2050

30.4
7.6
4.0
2.1
19.3
48.0
4.1
4.4
42.0
4.1
4.9
30.8
8.5
5.4
6.3
13.3
12.6
4.7
12.8
33.4
14.5
15.2
12.0
3.0
7.7
4.4
3.5
9.5
36.8
40.1
2.5
10.1
4.5
41.7
8.0
20.8
12.3
8.9
12.2
3.7
3.4
5.3
5.6
3.1
9.5
5.4
6.7
6.9
43.7
8.3
11.3

2095-2100

11.3
4.5
2.6
1.7
11.5
25.1
2.2
2.5
16.1
2.9
2.8
14.1
5.7
4.9
2.4
6.6
6.3
3.0
6.7
15.2
6.9
9.3
6.2
1.7
4.6
4.2
2.2
4.4
15.5
16.7
1.8
5.5
2.9
24.7
2.7
10.8
3.5
3.7
7.1
2.4
2.6
3.5
3.4
2.4
6.4
4.9
3.9
4.2
17.7
5.2
6.8
129

TABLE S.17. (continued)


Infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Samoa ...................................................
Sao Tome and Principe .........................
Saudi Arabia .........................................
Senegal .................................................
Serbia....................................................
Sierra Leone..........................................
Singapore ..............................................
Slovakia ................................................
Slovenia ................................................
Solomon Islands....................................
Somalia .................................................
South Africa..........................................
Spain .....................................................
Sri Lanka ..............................................
Sudan ....................................................
Suriname...............................................
Swaziland .............................................
Sweden .................................................
Switzerland ...........................................
Syrian Arab Republic............................
Tajikistan ..............................................
TFYR Macedonia .................................
Thailand................................................
Timor-Leste ..........................................
Togo......................................................
Tonga....................................................
Trinidad and Tobago.............................
Tunisia ..................................................
Turkey...................................................
Turkmenistan ........................................
Uganda..................................................
Ukraine .................................................
United Arab Emirates ...........................
United Kingdom ...................................
United Republic of Tanzania ................
United States of America ......................
United States Virgin Islands .................
Uruguay ................................................
Uzbekistan ............................................
Vanuatu.................................................
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) .....
Viet Nam ..............................................
Western Sahara .....................................
Yemen...................................................
Zambia..................................................
Zimbabwe .............................................

2000-2005

25.7
55.3
19.4
60.2
13.0
133.3
2.6
7.3
4.1
51.4
110.6
59.2
4.2
15.9
70.2
24.0
86.6
3.3
4.1
17.4
63.0
16.8
15.1
78.9
76.7
23.5
28.9
23.5
31.4
51.7
91.0
13.4
8.2
5.3
77.3
6.9
11.5
14.4
49.6
34.6
18.9
23.1
53.0
64.8
102.7
68.4

2005-2010

22.4
51.7
18.5
55.2
11.8
113.7
1.9
6.3
3.5
42.9
106.7
54.8
3.8
12.4
63.8
21.6
75.9
2.6
3.7
15.0
56.0
14.7
12.4
66.8
74.0
22.1
26.6
20.8
24.0
50.5
79.2
12.9
6.9
4.9
64.5
6.8
10.6
13.1
48.7
28.7
17.0
20.4
44.1
53.3
94.9
59.3

2010-2015

19.8
47.5
16.2
49.8
10.6
103.5
1.9
5.7
3.3
34.6
100.0
45.9
3.6
11.2
57.3
19.8
64.6
2.5
3.5
13.8
50.9
13.1
11.4
56.5
67.3
20.6
24.5
18.4
19.9
48.8
72.3
11.8
6.6
4.7
53.7
6.5
10.0
11.8
44.5
24.1
15.3
18.3
36.4
44.4
81.0
47.3

2015-2020

17.8
43.7
14.5
45.2
9.8
94.5
1.9
5.2
3.1
28.6
92.4
40.2
3.5
10.2
50.9
18.1
57.9
2.5
3.3
12.5
46.5
12.0
10.5
47.2
59.5
19.3
22.3
16.5
17.7
44.4
66.5
10.9
6.2
4.5
45.6
6.1
9.4
10.5
40.7
20.6
13.8
16.7
30.0
36.6
71.8
41.0

2020-2025

16.0
40.2
13.0
41.0
9.2
85.7
1.9
4.8
3.0
24.0
84.0
35.7
3.4
9.4
45.1
16.7
51.7
2.5
3.1
11.5
42.6
11.0
9.5
39.1
52.9
18.2
20.3
14.8
15.8
40.4
61.1
10.2
5.8
4.4
39.1
5.9
8.9
9.4
37.5
17.9
12.6
15.3
25.2
30.2
64.4
37.3

2045-2050

2095-2100

10.9
24.2
8.8
21.6
6.3
47.3
1.9
3.6
2.4
12.6
48.1
21.8
3.0
6.7
24.8
11.8
26.5
2.2
2.5
8.1
29.2
7.4
6.7
16.8
30.0
13.0
14.5
9.5
10.0
26.9
35.1
7.2
4.6
3.7
23.5
4.7
6.8
5.9
26.2
10.7
8.4
11.4
13.0
14.4
36.3
24.4

6.3
13.1
5.0
10.6
3.8
16.0
1.8
2.4
1.6
6.4
18.4
10.6
2.3
4.0
12.2
6.0
10.6
1.6
1.4
4.7
17.3
4.2
3.9
7.4
14.5
8.1
8.5
5.1
5.3
15.5
15.7
4.3
2.9
2.7
12.9
3.0
4.2
2.5
15.9
5.7
4.1
6.8
6.4
6.8
15.5
10.7

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

130

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.18. UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY BY COUNTRY FOR SELECTED PERIODS

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

World ...............................................
Afghanistan.......................................
Albania .............................................
Algeria ..............................................
Angola ..............................................
Argentina ..........................................
Armenia ............................................
Aruba ................................................
Australia ...........................................
Austria ..............................................
Azerbaijan.........................................
Bahamas ...........................................
Bahrain .............................................
Bangladesh........................................
Barbados ...........................................
Belarus..............................................
Belgium ............................................
Belize................................................
Benin.................................................
Bhutan...............................................
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) .........
Bosnia and Herzegovina ...................
Botswana ..........................................
Brazil ................................................
Brunei Darussalam............................
Bulgaria ............................................
Burkina Faso.....................................
Burundi .............................................
Cambodia..........................................
Cameroon .........................................
Canada ..............................................
Cape Verde .......................................
Central African Republic ..................
Chad..................................................
Channel Islands.................................
Chile .................................................
China.................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR ...................
China, Macao SAR ...........................
Colombia ..........................................
Comoros ...........................................
Congo ...............................................
Costa Rica.........................................
Cte dIvoire.....................................
131

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

73.5

65.7

60.0

55.4

51.0

31.5

14.5

214.8
24.2
38.5
192.8
17.4
33.5
20.9
6.0
5.3
61.3
22.5
11.4
79.4
16.8
12.4
5.4
25.6
145.6
78.0
72.2
16.6
88.9
34.2
6.8
15.8
179.0
175.4
100.6
157.0
6.1
34.0
188.3
213.2
11.9
9.7
29.5
3.8
7.4
28.3
109.0
118.8
12.2
136.2

202.4
20.9
32.0
170.4
15.5
29.0
18.7
5.5
4.8
47.6
19.8
9.3
61.4
15.9
9.3
4.8
21.9
135.7
63.4
60.6
16.1
58.1
29.1
6.4
12.3
167.0
164.4
84.7
152.2
6.0
24.5
172.8
208.6
10.2
8.8
26.4
2.8
5.7
26.0
100.3
113.6
11.4
122.3

184.2
18.9
27.2
155.6
14.2
26.8
17.1
5.4
4.6
43.2
17.7
8.6
50.6
14.2
9.0
4.7
20.6
120.8
52.2
54.2
15.6
46.3
23.6
6.1
10.7
147.3
151.8
69.4
135.6
5.7
21.7
155.1
195.5
9.5
8.3
23.6
2.8
5.3
22.8
85.5
103.6
10.6
107.2

169.7
16.9
23.3
140.1
12.8
24.7
15.8
5.3
4.4
37.7
15.3
8.1
41.2
12.9
8.8
4.5
19.4
106.1
43.1
45.2
15.2
40.6
20.7
5.8
10.4
130.1
139.0
55.7
122.0
5.5
19.0
141.1
179.9
8.9
7.8
21.2
2.8
5.2
20.4
73.2
93.5
9.8
93.3

155.6
15.5
20.6
125.2
11.6
22.9
14.6
5.2
4.2
33.2
13.8
7.6
34.2
11.8
8.5
4.4
18.6
93.3
36.4
37.0
14.8
36.5
18.3
5.5
10.1
114.0
127.1
44.5
111.4
5.2
16.6
129.0
162.4
8.3
7.4
19.2
2.8
5.0
18.4
62.2
84.7
9.2
81.5

93.1
10.7
12.8
65.1
7.7
15.6
9.8
4.5
3.5
18.3
10.2
5.8
17.6
8.4
7.1
3.7
15.0
46.4
21.0
16.6
12.5
21.4
11.2
4.6
8.4
52.9
62.2
18.8
58.1
4.1
10.6
68.7
82.6
6.0
5.9
12.5
2.7
4.2
11.1
28.6
43.3
6.5
41.7

43.2
5.7
6.8
22.2
3.8
8.6
5.6
3.0
2.2
8.5
5.4
3.9
8.7
4.9
5.1
2.4
8.4
19.3
11.8
5.0
8.7
9.8
4.4
3.3
6.0
20.2
20.0
8.3
21.5
2.4
5.9
23.4
25.4
3.1
4.2
6.0
2.7
3.0
4.5
11.7
19.3
2.8
18.5

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

TABLE S.18. (continued)

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Croatia ..............................................
Cuba..................................................
Cyprus...............................................
Czech Republic.................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ............
Dem. Republic of the Congo ............
Denmark ...........................................
Djibouti.............................................
Dominican Republic .........................
Ecuador.............................................
Egypt.................................................
El Salvador .......................................
Equatorial Guinea .............................
Eritrea ...............................................
Estonia ..............................................
Ethiopia.............................................
Fiji ....................................................
Finland..............................................
France ...............................................
French Guiana...................................
French Polynesia...............................
Gabon ...............................................
Gambia .............................................
Georgia .............................................
Germany ...........................................
Ghana................................................
Greece...............................................
Grenada.............................................
Guadeloupe.......................................
Guam ................................................
Guatemala.........................................
Guinea...............................................
Guinea-Bissau...................................
Guyana..............................................
Haiti ..................................................
Honduras...........................................
Hungary ............................................
Iceland ..............................................
India..................................................
Indonesia...........................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).................
Iraq....................................................
Ireland...............................................
Israel .................................................
Italy...................................................
Jamaica .............................................
132

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

8.0
7.7
6.7
4.8
36.3
200.2
5.6
129.0
39.8
29.9
38.5
30.3
182.2
83.7
9.4
139.0
23.8
3.8
5.0
18.0
11.3
87.6
119.9
33.1
5.0
95.3
5.5
19.3
10.0
11.5
48.5
170.6
210.5
63.7
93.1
43.9
8.7
3.1
84.0
44.3
43.1
44.2
6.5
6.2
5.0
32.2

7.2
7.2
5.2
4.0
34.7
191.8
4.8
115.1
33.1
25.7
29.8
25.9
167.3
71.6
7.6
112.9
22.5
3.5
4.3
16.3
10.1
76.6
104.7
30.8
4.5
73.8
5.4
16.9
7.8
10.5
39.3
150.3
197.7
53.4
83.3
39.5
7.3
2.7
72.4
36.4
36.6
42.4
4.7
4.8
4.1
28.9

6.7
6.5
5.0
3.8
31.8
180.2
4.7
104.3
27.7
23.1
25.2
22.9
150.6
62.0
7.2
96.3
21.6
3.4
4.2
14.7
9.5
63.7
93.1
26.9
4.3
63.4
5.4
15.1
7.6
9.5
34.3
134.0
180.9
46.4
76.4
33.1
6.8
2.6
65.4
31.4
30.9
40.7
4.5
4.2
4.0
25.8

6.2
6.0
4.9
3.8
28.1
166.9
4.6
91.0
23.9
20.7
21.7
20.3
135.0
54.0
6.8
84.3
20.4
3.4
4.0
13.4
9.0
54.3
83.4
24.3
4.1
56.3
5.3
13.7
7.2
8.7
30.3
119.1
164.2
41.0
68.2
29.1
6.4
2.6
59.7
28.0
26.9
36.9
4.4
3.8
3.9
23.7

5.9
5.8
4.8
3.7
25.1
154.4
4.6
78.1
21.7
18.6
19.1
18.2
120.2
47.1
6.4
73.4
19.4
3.3
3.8
12.2
8.4
47.3
74.5
22.1
4.0
48.9
5.2
12.7
6.9
8.2
27.0
105.5
148.5
36.5
59.9
25.8
6.1
2.5
54.5
25.3
23.7
32.1
4.3
3.5
3.9
21.9

4.7
5.0
4.3
3.4
13.6
86.5
4.3
35.5
12.7
11.3
11.9
11.3
61.7
26.2
5.1
37.2
13.6
3.1
3.2
8.6
6.8
28.0
34.0
13.9
3.4
27.9
4.9
9.0
5.5
6.2
16.0
53.0
80.7
23.7
29.9
15.2
4.9
2.4
36.6
17.9
14.7
16.3
3.8
2.6
3.4
14.3

3.2
3.9
3.5
2.5
7.1
25.6
3.6
12.6
5.1
4.3
6.3
5.3
21.7
12.9
3.6
17.7
8.3
2.6
2.0
5.0
4.7
15.4
15.5
7.0
2.2
15.5
4.0
5.2
3.5
4.0
6.0
20.4
24.5
13.4
10.5
6.0
3.4
2.0
21.1
10.9
7.5
7.8
3.0
1.3
2.7
6.2

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.18. (continued)

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Japan .................................................
Jordan ...............................................
Kazakhstan........................................
Kenya................................................
Kuwait ..............................................
Kyrgyzstan........................................
Lao People's Dem. Republic .............
Latvia................................................
Lebanon ............................................
Lesotho .............................................
Liberia...............................................
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya....................
Lithuania...........................................
Luxembourg......................................
Madagascar.......................................
Malawi..............................................
Malaysia ...........................................
Maldives ...........................................
Mali ..................................................
Malta.................................................
Martinique ........................................
Mauritania.........................................
Mauritius...........................................
Mayotte.............................................
Mexico..............................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...............
Mongolia...........................................
Montenegro.......................................
Morocco............................................
Mozambique .....................................
Myanmar...........................................
Namibia ............................................
Nepal.................................................
Netherlands.......................................
Netherlands Antilles .........................
New Caledonia .................................
New Zealand.....................................
Nicaragua..........................................
Niger .................................................
Nigeria ..............................................
Norway .............................................
Occupied Palestinian Territory .........
Oman ................................................
Pakistan.............................................
Panama .............................................
Papua New Guinea ...........................

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

4.1
28.1
38.5
110.2
11.9
48.5
78.2
11.8
30.7
128.3
169.4
19.9
9.8
5.5
87.7
159.3
12.9
33.5
207.3
9.3
10.0
121.1
16.1
8.4
24.7
47.6
55.1
12.7
47.0
161.4
80.7
66.8
73.2
5.9
17.5
6.9
6.9
32.1
198.7
176.7
4.4
28.9
18.7
102.4
26.9
75.2

3.5
24.8
32.8
101.2
10.5
45.7
56.8
9.2
26.9
114.7
125.9
16.9
9.6
3.1
64.1
135.8
10.1
14.5
192.8
7.9
8.9
118.8
15.4
6.2
20.2
43.2
44.4
10.1
38.2
141.0
73.3
52.7
48.7
5.4
15.5
6.7
6.2
25.7
163.8
156.0
3.6
25.8
11.5
93.8
23.8
65.9

3.4
22.5
29.0
88.9
9.9
41.8
45.7
8.4
23.8
89.0
107.5
14.9
8.9
3.0
57.5
118.5
9.0
11.9
172.6
7.4
8.4
105.9
14.6
6.2
17.2
38.4
37.1
9.1
31.4
123.3
57.3
39.3
39.2
5.2
14.3
6.5
6.2
21.9
144.0
140.6
3.5
22.5
10.5
85.9
21.2
57.5

3.4
20.8
26.3
79.3
9.3
38.6
36.9
7.9
21.0
74.2
93.5
13.6
8.5
3.0
47.4
104.9
8.3
10.2
154.9
7.1
7.9
95.1
13.8
6.1
15.1
34.4
31.7
8.4
26.8
106.0
45.8
33.4
31.9
5.0
13.3
6.5
6.2
19.6
127.0
125.4
3.5
20.0
9.0
79.5
19.0
50.2

3.3
19.4
23.9
71.4
8.6
35.2
30.2
7.4
18.2
65.6
80.8
12.3
8.0
2.9
39.4
93.9
7.6
8.9
137.7
6.8
7.5
85.3
13.2
6.0
13.3
30.7
27.3
7.8
23.1
90.0
37.0
29.4
26.4
4.7
12.4
6.4
6.0
17.7
111.1
111.2
3.4
18.2
8.2
73.6
17.3
44.0

3.1
12.4
15.5
38.2
6.4
24.2
15.1
5.7
11.4
35.0
37.4
8.8
6.0
2.7
23.9
58.9
5.4
6.3
68.3
5.6
5.7
39.6
10.3
5.6
7.7
15.4
14.8
5.9
13.6
45.9
16.8
19.9
13.8
3.8
9.0
6.1
5.2
11.4
52.2
56.8
3.1
11.5
6.0
51.6
10.5
24.7

2.6
6.7
9.0
18.7
4.2
15.3
7.5
3.9
6.3
12.6
13.2
5.2
4.1
2.3
14.4
29.2
2.9
3.4
22.0
3.8
3.3
17.2
6.9
5.1
2.9
7.6
7.4
4.0
7.1
19.4
7.9
12.5
7.2
2.3
5.4
5.7
3.4
5.3
19.7
21.0
2.7
6.3
4.0
29.9
3.6
12.5

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

133

TABLE S.18. (continued)

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Paraguay ...........................................
Peru...................................................
Philippines ........................................
Poland ...............................................
Portugal.............................................
Puerto Rico .......................................
Qatar .................................................
Republic of Korea.............................
Republic of Moldova ........................
Runion.............................................
Romania............................................
Russian Federation............................
Rwanda .............................................
Saint Lucia........................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.........
Samoa ...............................................
Sao Tome and Principe .....................
Saudi Arabia .....................................
Senegal .............................................
Serbia................................................
Sierra Leone......................................
Singapore ..........................................
Slovakia ............................................
Slovenia ............................................
Solomon Islands................................
Somalia .............................................
South Africa......................................
Spain .................................................
Sri Lanka ..........................................
Sudan ................................................
Suriname...........................................
Swaziland .........................................
Sweden .............................................
Switzerland .......................................
Syrian Arab Republic........................
Tajikistan ..........................................
TFYR Macedonia .............................
Thailand............................................
Timor-Leste ......................................
Togo..................................................
Tonga................................................
Trinidad and Tobago.........................
Tunisia ..............................................
Turkey...............................................
Turkmenistan ....................................
Uganda..............................................
134

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

42.5
39.9
34.9
8.4
6.2
9.7
13.6
6.8
23.2
8.4
20.5
20.5
151.7
19.1
32.2
31.1
82.6
22.5
114.6
15.2
214.7
3.3
8.9
4.8
67.5
181.5
84.2
5.2
18.9
109.9
32.2
127.6
3.8
5.8
20.1
82.3
19.2
17.5
111.0
120.9
28.2
36.5
29.0
36.5
65.9
147.8

38.3
32.8
30.2
7.2
5.8
9.1
11.1
4.8
19.2
6.2
16.7
17.2
128.3
17.0
28.1
26.9
76.3
21.4
95.6
13.9
174.0
2.4
7.7
4.4
54.4
174.1
79.1
4.6
14.4
98.4
29.8
113.5
3.2
5.3
17.1
72.5
16.9
14.0
91.9
116.1
26.4
33.5
25.7
27.5
64.3
126.3

32.9
28.0
27.5
6.7
5.4
8.7
10.4
4.7
18.6
6.2
14.7
16.3
114.1
15.9
24.7
23.6
68.9
18.7
85.4
12.6
157.5
2.3
7.0
4.2
42.6
161.8
63.5
4.4
13.1
87.1
27.1
92.0
3.1
5.0
15.7
65.4
14.8
13.0
75.6
104.4
24.5
30.9
22.5
22.7
62.2
113.7

28.9
24.8
25.4
6.4
5.3
8.3
9.9
4.6
17.7
6.1
13.1
15.6
102.7
15.0
22.1
21.0
62.1
16.6
76.7
11.7
142.7
2.3
6.6
4.1
34.6
147.9
54.3
4.2
12.1
75.8
24.9
80.5
3.1
4.8
14.2
59.1
13.5
12.1
61.1
90.5
22.9
28.1
20.2
20.1
56.6
103.4

25.6
22.3
23.5
6.1
5.1
7.9
9.4
4.4
17.0
6.0
11.9
14.5
91.0
14.2
19.8
18.8
56.0
14.9
68.7
10.9
128.6
2.3
6.1
4.0
28.5
132.8
47.6
4.1
11.2
65.6
23.0
70.4
3.1
4.5
13.1
53.7
12.4
11.1
49.0
78.8
21.4
25.6
18.1
18.0
51.4
93.8

14.8
13.6
16.0
4.8
4.4
6.4
7.2
4.0
13.5
5.6
8.2
10.7
46.4
10.8
13.1
12.6
30.4
10.1
31.2
7.7
67.0
2.3
4.9
3.5
14.6
69.8
28.0
3.7
8.0
32.0
16.2
33.7
2.8
3.5
9.2
35.1
8.6
8.0
19.6
39.6
15.1
18.3
11.6
11.3
33.2
48.4

4.2
5.8
9.3
3.4
3.3
4.3
4.3
3.1
9.5
5.1
4.9
6.5
19.3
6.8
7.8
7.3
16.3
5.8
14.9
4.8
19.9
2.2
3.5
2.4
7.4
22.8
12.6
2.8
4.9
15.3
8.3
12.9
2.4
2.0
5.3
20.6
4.9
4.9
8.6
18.1
9.4
10.8
6.3
6.0
19.1
19.9

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.18. (continued)

Under-five mortality (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births)
Country or area

Ukraine .............................................
United Arab Emirates .......................
United Kingdom ...............................
United Republic of Tanzania ............
United States of America ..................
United States Virgin Islands .............
Uruguay ............................................
Uzbekistan ........................................
Vanuatu.............................................
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) .
Viet Nam ..........................................
Western Sahara .................................
Yemen...............................................
Zambia..............................................
Zimbabwe .........................................

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2045-2050

2095-2100

16.8
10.4
6.3
123.5
8.1
13.4
17.6
59.7
42.6
24.2
28.9
70.0
88.6
168.8
110.7

15.6
8.2
5.8
101.0
7.9
12.3
16.2
58.6
34.6
21.8
25.3
56.2
70.5
155.6
94.5

15.0
7.9
5.6
81.3
7.6
11.6
14.7
53.5
28.7
19.6
22.6
45.0
56.7
130.3
71.2

14.3
7.5
5.4
66.7
7.5
10.9
13.1
49.0
24.2
17.7
20.6
36.4
45.4
113.1
59.2

13.4
7.1
5.2
55.1
7.3
10.3
11.8
45.1
20.9
16.1
19.0
30.1
36.6
99.9
52.7

9.8
5.7
4.4
30.3
6.3
7.9
7.3
31.3
12.3
10.7
14.2
15.1
16.7
50.7
33.5

6.1
3.9
3.2
16.4
4.3
4.8
3.1
18.9
6.6
5.2
8.5
7.5
7.9
19.5
13.9

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Only countries or areas with 100,000 persons or more in 2010 are considered.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

135

TABLE S.19. HIV PREVALENCE IN THE COUNTRIES MOST AFFECTED BY THE HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIC, 2011 AND 2025
Prevalence (percentage)
Country

2011

2025

Change
between 2011
and 2025

Assumed coverage of
child treatment in 2025
(percentage)

Assumed coverage of
adult treatment in 2025
(percentage)

Africa
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.

Angola................................................
Benin ..................................................
Botswana............................................
Burkina Faso ......................................
Burundi ..............................................
Cameroon ...........................................
Central African Republic....................
Chad ...................................................
Congo.................................................
Cte dIvoire ......................................
Dem. Republic of the Congo ..............
Djibouti ..............................................
Equatorial Guinea...............................
Eritrea.................................................
Ethiopia ..............................................
Gabon.................................................
Gambia ...............................................
Ghana .................................................
Guinea ................................................
Guinea-Bissau ....................................
Kenya .................................................
Lesotho...............................................
Liberia ................................................
Malawi ...............................................
Mali ....................................................
Mozambique.......................................
Namibia..............................................
Nigeria................................................
Rwanda ..............................................
Sierra Leone .......................................
South Africa .......................................
Swaziland ...........................................
Togo ...................................................
Uganda ...............................................
United Republic of Tanzania..............
Zambia ...............................................
Zimbabwe...........................................

2.0
1.1
24.5
1.2
3.1
5.2
4.2
3.3
3.2
3.3
1.3
2.5
5.6
0.7
1.1
5.1
2.3
1.8
1.3
2.4
5.9
23.6
1.3
10.7
1.0
11.3
12.4
3.6
2.9
1.6
17.6
26.0
3.0
6.3
5.4
13.2
13.8

1.8
0.9
20.5
1.4
2.7
4.8
1.9
2.6
2.8
2.4
1.2
2.0
6.0
0.4
0.7
4.2
2.4
1.4
1.2
2.1
4.3
22.1
0.9
8.5
0.7
9.4
8.2
3.2
2.6
1.2
15.3
20.2
2.4
6.0
4.5
10.8
12.4

-0.1
-0.3
-4.0
0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-2.3
-0.6
-0.3
-0.9
-0.1
-0.5
0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.9
0.1
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
-1.6
-1.6
-0.3
-2.2
-0.3
-1.9
-4.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-2.3
-5.8
-0.7
-0.3
-0.9
-2.4
-1.4

40
83
95
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
64
95
40
62
55
50
95
40
95
40
59
95
40
47
75
72
60

90
90
90
90
73
90
75
90
90
90
62
55
77
90
90
90
69
90
90
90
90
90
51
90
90
83
90
80
90
66
90
90
90
90
90
90
90

Asia
1. China ..................................................
2. India ...................................................
3. Thailand .............................................

0.1
0.4
1.2

0.1
0.1
0.8

0.0
-0.2
-0.5

62
40
95

40
40
90

136

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

TABLE S.19. (continued)

Prevalence (percentage)
Country

2011

2025

Change
between 2011
and 2025

Assumed coverage of
child treatment in 2025
(percentage)

Assumed coverage of
adult treatment in 2025
(percentage)

Europe
1. Russian Federation .............................

1.1

1.0

-0.1

55

90

Latin America and the Caribbean


1. Bahamas .............................................
2. Belize .................................................
3. Guyana ...............................................
4. Haiti....................................................
5. Jamaica...............................................
6. Suriname ............................................

3.0
2.3
0.9
1.8
1.7
1.0

2.6
2.1
0.6
1.1
1.6
0.9

-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1

40
79
95
42
95
95

90
90
90
90
90
90

0.6

0.6

0.0

99

99

Northern America
1. United States of America ...................

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.
NOTE: Prevalence relates to the population aged 15-49.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

137

TABLE S.20. POPULATION OF COUNTRIES CLASSIFIED ACCORDING TO THE VALUE OF THE NET REPRODUCTION
RATE IN 2005-2010, 1950, 2011, 2050 AND 2100 (thousands)

Country
High-fertility countries
Afghanistan
Angola
Benin
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Congo
Cte d'Ivoire
Dem. Republic of the Congo
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
French Guiana
Gambia
Ghana
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Honduras
Iraq
Jordan
Kenya
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mayotte
Micronesia (Fed. States of)
Mozambique
Niger
Nigeria
Occupied Palestinian Territory
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Rwanda
Samoa
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal
138

Net reproduction
rate in
2005-2010

2.23
2.10
2.12
1.54
2.25
1.64
1.72
1.66
2.19
2.10
1.85
1.81
2.12
1.57
1.93
2.03
1.85
1.57
2.11
1.82
1.91
2.03
1.79
1.52
2.20
1.54
1.91
2.10
2.14
2.29
2.33
1.91
2.10
1.62
1.86
2.70
2.00
2.18
1.57
1.76
1.52
2.08
1.85
1.67
2.11

2050

2100

Ratio of population
in 2100 to
population in 2011

76,250
42,334
21,734
16,769
46,721
13,703
38,472
8,392
27,252
1,700
8,801
40,674
148,523
1,620
1,493
11,568
145,187
506
4,036
49,107
31,595
23,006
3,185
12,939
83,357
9,882
96,887
9,660
53,561
49,719
42,130
7,085
493
139
50,192
55,435
389,615
9,727
274,875
13,549
154,939
26,003
219
299
28,607

110,879
56,052
36,752
20,021
96,367
14,587
53,693
10,954
43,648
3,047
14,224
56,412
212,113
1,923
2,054
15,496
150,140
721
6,084
67,230
46,036
36,664
5,518
13,789
145,276
9,495
160,009
16,535
94,222
129,502
80,506
10,434
688
161
77,347
139,209
729,885
14,868
261,271
18,113
177,803
42,316
313
356
44,075

3.43
2.86
4.04
1.98
5.68
1.70
2.68
2.44
3.79
4.04
3.44
2.80
3.13
2.12
2.85
2.86
1.77
3.04
3.43
2.69
3.12
3.59
3.57
1.78
4.45
1.50
3.85
4.00
4.42
8.42
5.08
2.95
3.27
1.45
3.23
8.66
4.49
3.58
1.48
2.58
1.87
3.87
1.70
2.11
3.45

Population (thousands)
1950

8,151
4,148
2,255
2,714
4,284
2,456
4,466
1,327
2,429
156
808
2,630
12,184
62
226
1,141
18,434
25
271
4,981
3,146
3,094
518
1,487
5,719
449
6,077
911
4,084
2,881
4,638
657
15
32
6,442
2,462
37,860
932
37,542
1,708
18,397
2,072
82
60
2,416

2011

32,358
19,618
9,100
10,088
16,968
8,575
20,030
4,487
11,525
754
4,140
20,153
67,758
906
720
5,415
84,734
237
1,776
24,966
14,757
10,222
1,547
7,755
32,665
6,330
41,610
4,129
21,315
15,381
15,840
3,542
211
112
23,930
16,069
162,471
4,152
176,745
7,014
94,852
10,943
184
169
12,768

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

TABLE S.20. (continued)

Country
Sierra Leone
Solomon Islands
Somalia
Sudan
Tajikistan
Timor-Leste
Togo
Tonga
Uganda
United Republic of Tanzania
Vanuatu
Yemen
Zambia
Intermediate-fertility countries
Algeria
Argentina
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Belize
Bhutan
Botswana
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
Cape Verde
Colombia
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Fiji
French Polynesia
Gabon
Grenada
Guadeloupe
Guam
Guyana
Haiti
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Jamaica
Kazakhstan
Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan
Lao People's Dem. Republic
Lesotho

Net reproduction
rate in
2005-2010

1.90
1.93
2.29
1.90
1.53
2.71
1.71
1.89
2.44
2.23
1.84
2.38
2.17

1.11
1.08
1.26
1.07
1.39
1.16
1.15
1.01
1.19
1.25
1.15
1.24
1.21
1.34
1.10
1.29
1.04
1.43
1.09
1.03
1.21
1.07
1.49
1.02
1.17
1.01
1.00
1.40
1.12
1.17
1.13
1.24
1.34
1.22

2011

2050

2100

Ratio of population
in 2100 to
population in 2011

5,997
552
9,557
44,632
6,977
1,154
6,155
105
34,509
46,218
246
24,800
13,475

11,088
1,163
28,217
90,962
10,745
3,006
11,130
138
94,259
138,312
513
61,577
45,037

14,154
1,630
72,976
127,621
11,687
4,742
13,558
193
171,190
316,338
751
99,032
140,348

2.36
2.95
7.64
2.86
1.68
4.11
2.20
1.85
4.96
6.84
3.06
3.99
10.42

8,753
35,980
17,150
40,765
116
1,324
37,895 150,494
69
318
168
738
413
2,031
48
406
4,346
14,305
178
501
12,000
46,927
2,380
10,056
3,387
14,666
21,514
82,537
2,200
6,227
289
868
61
274
469
1,534
77
105
210
463
60
182
407
756
3,221
10,124
143
324
371,857 1,241,492
74,837 242,326
2,913
4,526
1,258
7,562
1,403
2,751
6,703
16,207
152
2,818
1,740
5,393
1,683
6,288
734
2,194

46,522
50,560
1,801
194,353
529
962
2,503
602
18,965
632
61,764
12,942
19,549
123,452
7,607
1,017
330
2,784
95
476
245
766
14,178
431
1,692,008
293,456
6,038
12,029
2,569
21,210
5,164
7,768
8,384
2,788

39,983
49,201
1,580
157,134
555
782
2,476
667
16,661
520
58,137
12,231
18,319
123,227
6,783
1,005
281
3,776
75
424
252
693
14,566
480
1,550,899
254,178
7,046
15,312
2,166
24,876
6,371
9,258
6,956
2,874

1.11
1.21
1.19
1.04
1.74
1.06
1.22
1.64
1.16
1.04
1.24
1.22
1.25
1.49
1.09
1.16
1.03
2.46
0.72
0.92
1.38
0.92
1.44
1.48
1.25
1.05
1.56
2.02
0.79
1.53
2.26
1.72
1.11
1.31

Population (thousands)
1950

1,895
90
2,264
9,190
1,532
433
1,395
47
5,158
7,650
48
4,316
2,340

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

139

TABLE S.20. (continued)

Country
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Malaysia
Mexico
Mongolia
Morocco
Namibia
Nepal
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Oman
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Qatar
Runion
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Sri Lanka
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Suriname
Swaziland
Syrian Arab Republic
Turkey
Turkmenistan
United States of America
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
Western Sahara
Zimbabwe
Low-fertility countries
Albania
Armenia
Aruba
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Channel Islands
Chile
140

Net reproduction
rate in
2005-2010

1950

2050

2100

Ratio of population
in 2100 to
population in 2011

1.29
1.30
1.15
1.17
1.10
1.47
1.33
1.05
1.03
1.29
1.20
1.21
1.42
1.21
1.16
1.17
1.44
1.02
1.13
1.01
1.11
1.31
1.47
1.01
1.13
1.00
1.01
1.11
1.21
1.21
1.29

1,029
6,110
27,866
780
8,953
485
8,231
65
1,908
1,295
456
860
1,473
7,632
25
248
3,121
13,683
8,241
67
215
273
3,413
21,238
1,211
157,813
2,239
6,314
5,094
14
2,747

6,423
28,859
114,793
2,800
32,273
2,324
30,486
255
4,415
5,870
2,846
3,571
6,568
29,400
1,870
856
28,083
50,460
21,045
109
529
1,203
20,766
73,640
5,105
313,085
3,380
27,760
29,437
548
12,754

8,773
43,455
143,925
4,093
39,200
3,599
46,495
344
5,678
7,846
3,740
5,128
10,323
38,832
2,612
1,083
44,938
56,757
23,193
113
614
1,679
33,051
91,617
6,639
403,101
3,663
35,438
41,821
901
20,614

8,073
46,946
127,081
4,831
33,068
3,728
44,987
334
6,323
7,261
2,839
5,170
11,364
35,911
2,162
1,086
42,427
54,477
19,888
96
551
1,813
32,623
79,200
5,708
478,026
3,396
29,254
40,507
848
21,838

1.26
1.63
1.11
1.73
1.02
1.60
1.48
1.31
1.43
1.24
1.00
1.45
1.73
1.22
1.16
1.27
1.51
1.08
0.95
0.87
1.04
1.51
1.57
1.08
1.12
1.53
1.00
1.05
1.38
1.55
1.71

0.75
0.78
0.83
0.93
0.67
0.94
0.90
0.74
0.66
0.87
0.56
0.89
0.69
0.80
0.68
0.92

1,215
1,354
38
8,177
6,936
2,896
79
211
7,745
8,628
2,661
53,975
7,251
13,737
102
6,082

3,216
3,100
108
22,606
8,413
9,306
347
274
9,559
10,754
3,752
196,655
7,446
34,350
154
17,270

2,990
2,931
104
31,385
8,427
11,578
445
264
8,001
11,587
2,952
222,843
5,459
43,642
152
20,059

1,863
2,335
88
35,908
7,805
11,976
449
223
6,760
12,588
1,877
177,349
4,131
48,290
156
17,185

0.58
0.75
0.82
1.59
0.93
1.29
1.29
0.82
0.71
1.17
0.50
0.90
0.55
1.41
1.02
1.00

Population (thousands)
2011

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

TABLE S.20. (continued)

Country
China ................................................
China, Hong Kong SAR ...................
China, Macao SAR ...........................
Costa Rica.........................................
Croatia ..............................................
Cuba..................................................
Cyprus ..............................................
Czech Republic.................................
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea ............
Denmark ...........................................
Estonia ..............................................
Finland..............................................
France ...............................................
Georgia .............................................
Germany ...........................................
Greece...............................................
Hungary ............................................
Iran (Islamic Republic of).................
Italy...................................................
Japan.................................................
Latvia................................................
Lebanon ............................................
Lithuania...........................................
Luxembourg .....................................
Maldives ...........................................
Malta.................................................
Martinique ........................................
Mauritius...........................................
Montenegro.......................................
Myanmar...........................................
Netherlands.......................................
Netherlands Antilles .........................
Norway .............................................
Poland ...............................................
Portugal.............................................
Puerto Rico .......................................
Republic of Korea.............................
Republic of Moldova ........................
Romania............................................
Russian Federation............................
Saint Lucia........................................
Serbia................................................
Singapore..........................................
Slovakia ............................................
Slovenia ............................................
Spain.................................................
Sweden .............................................
Switzerland .......................................
TFYR Macedonia .............................

Net reproduction
rate in
2005-2010

0.71
0.47
0.49
0.92
0.68
0.72
0.72
0.68
0.94
0.89
0.78
0.89
0.95
0.72
0.65
0.70
0.64
0.82
0.66
0.64
0.68
0.88
0.68
0.78
0.90
0.64
0.92
0.80
0.80
0.91
0.84
0.95
0.93
0.63
0.65
0.88
0.61
0.71
0.63
0.68
0.98
0.76
0.60
0.61
0.67
0.68
0.91
0.70
0.69

2050

2100

Ratio of population
in 2100 to
population in 2011

1,295,604
9,305
824
6,001
3,859
9,898
1,347
10,638
26,382
5,920
1,233
5,611
72,442
3,186
74,781
11,647
9,243
85,344
59,158
108,549
1,902
4,678
2,813
708
405
415
382
1,367
604
55,296
17,151
198
6,063
34,906
9,379
3,657
47,050
2,661
18,535
126,188
205
8,797
6,106
5,241
1,994
51,354
10,916
7,870
1,881

941,042
10,355
810
5,019
3,317
7,022
1,192
10,324
24,552
6,032
1,145
5,842
80,288
2,367
70,392
11,109
8,672
62,059
55,619
91,330
1,650
3,612
2,453
740
300
394
301
1,157
499
46,941
17,381
147
6,964
29,454
6,754
3,024
37,221
1,958
14,839
111,057
169
6,956
5,659
4,516
1,846
45,011
11,859
7,252
1,391

0.70
1.45
1.46
1.06
0.75
0.62
1.07
0.98
1.00
1.08
0.85
1.08
1.27
0.55
0.86
0.98
0.87
0.83
0.91
0.72
0.74
0.85
0.74
1.43
0.94
0.94
0.74
0.89
0.79
0.97
1.04
0.72
1.41
0.77
0.63
0.81
0.77
0.55
0.69
0.78
0.96
0.71
1.09
0.83
0.91
0.97
1.26
0.94
0.67

Population (thousands)
1950

2011

550,771 1,347,565
1,974
7,122
196
556
966
4,727
3,850
4,396
5,920
11,254
494
1,117
8,876
10,534
9,737
24,451
4,268
5,573
1,101
1,341
4,009
5,385
41,832
63,126
3,527
4,329
68,376
82,163
7,566
11,390
9,338
9,966
17,414
74,799
46,367
60,789
82,199 126,497
1,949
2,243
1,443
4,259
2,567
3,307
296
516
74
320
312
418
222
407
493
1,307
399
632
17,158
48,337
10,027
16,665
112
203
3,265
4,925
24,824
38,299
8,417
10,690
2,218
3,746
19,211
48,391
2,341
3,545
16,311
21,436
102,702 142,836
83
176
6,732
9,854
1,022
5,188
3,437
5,472
1,473
2,035
28,070
46,455
7,014
9,441
4,668
7,702
1,230
2,064

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

141

TABLE S.20. (continued)

Country
Thailand............................................
Trinidad and Tobago.........................
Tunisia ..............................................
Ukraine .............................................
United Arab Emirates .......................
United Kingdom ...............................
United States Virgin Islands .............
Viet Nam ..........................................

Net reproduction
rate in
2005-2010

0.77
0.77
0.96
0.66
0.89
0.88
0.98
0.89

Population (thousands)
1950

20,607
636
3,530
37,298
70
50,616
27
28,264

2011

2050

69,519
1,346
10,594
45,190
7,891
62,417
109
88,792

71,037
1,288
12,649
36,074
12,152
72,817
92
103,962

2100

58,166
1,031
10,891
30,254
10,357
75,676
80
82,604

Ratio of population
in 2100 to
population in 2011

0.84
0.77
1.03
0.67
1.31
1.21
0.73
0.93

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2011). World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations.

142

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables

ANNEX TABLES

SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS

Table A.1. Total population at mid-year by major area and region:


estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Population (thousands)
Major area and region
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China

1950

1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2 532 229

3 038 413

3 696 186

4 453 007

4 863 290

5 306 425

5 726 239

6 122 770

6 506 649

6 895 889

811 187
1 721 042
196 088
1 524 954

913 330
2 125 083
243 650
1 881 432

1 006 421
2 689 765
312 030
2 377 735

1 081 094
3 371 913
393 768
2 978 145

1 112 951
3 750 339
447 167
3 303 173

1 144 404
4 162 021
510 107
3 651 914

1 169 451
4 556 788
585 251
3 971 537

1 188 809
4 933 961
661 996
4 271 965

1 210 897
5 295 752
745 291
4 550 461

1 235 900
5 659 989
832 330
4 827 660

1 160 539

1 453 073

1 856 374

2 365 633

2 668 824

2 990 440

3 315 102

3 635 693

3 958 139

4 287 841

Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

186 103

230 797

295 971

389 802

448 863

515 593

589 677

669 123

757 513

856 327

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

229 895
64 757
26 116
52 982
15 588
70 451

286 729
81 887
32 013
67 493
19 724
85 611

368 148
107 628
40 749
86 943
25 454
107 374

482 803
143 575
53 391
113 072
33 000
139 766

555 276
166 013
61 698
129 955
37 509
160 101

635 287
192 801
71 676
146 188
42 093
182 529

720 931
219 318
84 829
161 395
47 398
207 992

811 101
251 584
96 187
176 166
51 442
235 722

911 120
285 713
110 931
192 017
54 919
267 540

1 022 234
324 044
126 689
209 459
57 780
304 261

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

1 403 389
672 432
507 072
17 499
489 573
172 905
50 979

1 707 682
801 489
620 016
24 403
595 613
219 336
66 841

2 134 993
984 073
778 832
33 177
745 655
285 163
86 925

2 637 586
1 178 587
985 965
41 312
944 653
359 012
114 021

2 906 851
1 262 663
1 110 955
45 764
1 065 191
401 854
131 379

3 199 481
1 359 149
1 246 396
50 411
1 195 985
445 361
148 575

3 470 446
1 434 912
1 382 859
53 401
1 329 458
485 756
166 919

3 719 044
1 495 281
1 515 563
55 361
1 460 201
523 831
184 369

3 944 992
1 537 343
1 642 065
57 363
1 584 702
559 881
205 703

4 164 252
1 573 970
1 764 872
60 726
1 704 146
593 415
231 995

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

547 287
220 123
78 035
108 332
140 798

603 854
252 787
81 930
117 371
151 766

655 879
276 227
87 352
126 764
165 535

692 869
294 929
89 900
137 668
170 372

706 800
303 677
90 724
140 702
171 697

720 497
310 543
92 114
142 408
175 432

727 422
309 882
93 222
143 616
180 702

726 777
304 172
94 347
145 147
183 111

730 736
297 758
96 318
150 228
186 431

738 199
294 771
99 205
155 171
189 052

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

167 368
17 084
37 889
112 395

220 058
20 725
51 678
147 655

286 377
25 325
69 591
191 461

362 326
29 695
91 779
240 852

402 393
31 903
102 085
268 405

443 032
34 205
113 249
295 577

482 647
36 439
124 600
321 608

521 429
38 441
135 555
347 433

557 038
40 177
145 384
371 477

590 082
41 646
155 881
392 555

Northern America

171 615

204 318

231 284

254 454

267 079

281 162

295 749

313 289

329 231

344 529

12 675
10 085
2 199
148
242

15 773
12 658
2 620
184
311

19 506
15 548
3 306
242
409

22 970
17 857
4 338
302
474

24 891
19 081
4 943
358
508

26 967
20 494
5 512
418
543

29 044
21 793
6 207
466
578

31 130
23 022
6 996
496
615

33 532
24 538
7 830
519
645

36 593
26 637
8 748
536
673

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

146

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.1. Total population at mid-year by major area and region (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Population (thousands)
2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

7 284 296 7 656 528 8 321 380 8 874 041 9 306 128 9 615 189 9 827 113 9 968 538 10 062 090 10 124 926
1 256 172
6 028 124
930 629
5 097 495

1 273 439
6 383 089
1 035 443
5 347 646

1 296 089
7 025 290
1 256 762
5 768 528

1 306 885
7 567 156
1 489 296
6 077 860

1 311 731
7 994 397
1 726 468
6 267 928

1 310 345
8 304 845
1 958 005
6 346 840

1 309 184
8 517 929
2 175 214
6 342 715

1 313 988
8 654 550
2 371 781
6 282 769

1 323 738
8 738 353
2 543 902
6 194 451

1 334 786
8 790 140
2 690 518
6 099 623

4 627 034 4 963 563 5 600 083 6 174 657 6 668 507 7 064 671 7 365 095 7 580 988 7 729 384 7 825 179
967 357 1 088 812 1 353 772 1 647 278 1 960 102 2 277 259 2 586 767 2 876 501 3 135 614 3 358 050

Major area and region


World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

1 145 316 1 278 199 1 562 047 1 869 561 2 191 599 2 512 188 2 820 005 3 105 039 3 358 296 3 574 141
369 106
418 637
526 697
647 971
779 613
915 390 1 051 184 1 182 150 1 304 031 1 414 284
143 631
161 689
200 021
239 561
278 350
314 153
344 757
368 940
386 228
396 869
227 031
244 306
275 131
301 339
322 458
336 984
344 764
347 563
347 043
343 712
59 585
61 187
64 126
66 095
67 327
68 031
68 145
67 616
66 605
65 369
345 963
392 379
496 071
614 595
743 850
877 629 1 011 156 1 138 770 1 254 390 1 353 906

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

4 375 482
1 604 111
1 890 582
64 338
1 826 245
625 987
254 802

4 565 520
1 622 681
2 009 512
68 104
1 941 409
655 940
277 387

4 867 741
1 625 463
2 215 897
74 094
2 141 803
705 987
320 394

5 060 964
1 586 456
2 373 483
78 542
2 294 941
740 898
360 127

5 142 220
1 511 963
2 475 684
81 799
2 393 885
759 207
395 367

5 122 743
1 418 104
2 518 193
83 208
2 434 985
762 306
424 140

5 029 489
1 322 756
2 506 458
83 366
2 423 092
753 929
446 346

4 892 292
1 237 309
2 453 718
82 799
2 370 919
738 249
463 015

4 740 484
1 168 978
2 376 691
81 801
2 294 890
719 622
475 193

4 596 224
1 122 895
2 288 981
80 783
2 208 198
701 323
483 025

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

742 067
292 236
101 892
157 446
190 494

744 177
289 165
104 524
158 478
192 010

741 233
279 544
109 254
158 548
193 888

731 826
267 987
112 162
157 554
194 123

719 257
256 946
114 036
155 227
193 048

702 347
245 566
115 225
149 816
191 740

686 745
234 992
116 168
143 862
191 723

677 700
227 653
117 210
139 935
192 902

674 657
223 891
118 276
137 874
194 616

674 796
221 966
119 439
136 856
196 536

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

622 437
43 041
166 487
412 909

652 182
44 322
176 389
431 471

701 606
46 363
193 747
461 496

734 748
47 386
207 037
480 325

750 956
47 314
215 569
488 073

753 236
46 852
219 603
486 781

745 186
46 058
220 897
478 231

729 113
44 986
219 598
464 529

708 723
43 722
216 193
448 808

687 517
42 464
211 695
433 359

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

359 638

374 394

401 657

425 467

446 862

466 270

484 690

501 289

515 233

526 428

Northern America

39 355
28 394
9 691
570
700

42 056
30 065
10 660
602
728

47 096
32 982
12 670
661
783

51 475
35 252
14 690
703
830

55 233
37 063
16 585
726
859

58 405
38 487
18 271
751
897

60 997
39 623
19 672
766
937

63 106
40 634
20 735
769
968

64 697
41 502
21 444
764
987

65 819
42 232
21 832
755
1 001

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

147

Table A.2. Total population at mid-year by major area and region:


high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Population (thousands)
Major area and region

2015

2020

2030

7 350 953

7 832 370

8 776 486

9 679 064 10 614 318 11 546 322 12 498 658 13 525 786 14 630 726 15 804 873

1 266 530
6 084 422
938 720
5 145 702

1 299 737
6 532 633
1 058 102
5 474 531

1 359 746
7 416 740
1 322 727
6 094 013

1 411 555
8 267 509
1 617 641
6 649 869

1 478 333
9 135 985
1 951 801
7 184 184

1 555 196 1 641 501 1 753 661 1 889 510 2 037 371
9 991 126 10 857 157 11 772 125 12 741 216 13 767 503
2 312 909 2 696 099 3 101 031 3 521 211 3 954 217
7 678 216 8 161 058 8 671 094 9 220 005 9 813 286

4 670 339

5 080 402

5 915 463

6 751 340

7 622 453

8 489 178

9 358 709 10 256 573 11 183 728 12 142 392

975 299

1 111 208

1 420 704

1 782 155

2 204 177

2 670 938

3 176 503

3 715 951

4 275 705

4 849 323

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

1 155 067
372 196
144 777
229 246
60 185
348 664

1 305 420
427 460
164 934
250 281
62 774
399 972

1 641 422
553 402
209 830
290 987
68 286
518 918

2 025 831
702 239
259 481
329 378
73 449
661 283

2 469 755
878 820
313 955
368 239
79 083
829 657

2 955 291
1 076 406
370 631
404 812
84 835
1 018 607

3 476 382
1 294 279
427 738
438 091
90 710
1 225 563

4 031 276
1 531 000
484 241
471 164
96 827
1 448 043

4 607 712
1 781 769
538 954
504 844
103 071
1 679 074

5 198 432
2 045 083
591 582
538 125
109 746
1 913 896

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

4 416 790
1 618 720
1 908 934
65 004
1 843 930
631 974
257 162

4 673 808
1 659 422
2 058 604
69 878
1 988 727
671 966
283 816

5 142 515
1 711 143
2 345 672
78 578
2 267 094
747 812
337 888

5 537 614
1 725 358
2 607 365
86 269
2 521 097
812 945
391 946

5 898 284
1 723 057
2 853 881
94 362
2 759 519
872 811
448 535

6 211 109
1 713 827
3 066 754
101 450
2 965 304
926 137
504 390

6 501 293
1 713 562
3 253 478
108 135
3 145 343
974 927
559 326

6 807 706
1 737 913
3 428 122
115 412
3 312 710
1 025 661
616 009

7 145 770
1 791 927
3 598 416
122 985
3 475 430
1 081 125
674 302

7 521 997
1 874 267
3 772 645
131 151
3 641 494
1 141 696
733 390

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

748 362
294 978
102 706
158 739
191 939

759 920
295 891
106 651
161 654
195 723

778 206
294 537
114 656
165 941
203 071

791 813
291 971
121 210
169 509
209 124

814 017
294 849
128 440
173 943
216 785

839 816
299 514
136 602
176 841
226 859

871 610
306 805
145 356
180 048
239 402

920 546
321 411
155 858
187 315
255 961

984 394
341 846
168 217
198 215
276 116

1 056 358
365 572
181 696
211 079
298 011

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

628 520
43 435
168 143
416 942

668 251
45 358
180 804
442 089

743 496
49 031
205 468
488 996

809 187
52 076
228 154
528 957

868 827
54 739
249 404
564 684

923 042
57 523
268 745
596 774

975 797
60 500
288 119
627 177

1 030 032
63 766
307 913
658 354

1 088 553
67 324
328 296
692 934

1 153 538
71 268
349 928
732 342

Northern America

362 528

382 024

421 374

458 975

501 324

548 248

598 064

653 580

714 146

776 793

39 687
28 631
9 776
575
706

42 948
30 693
10 894
616
744

49 474
34 607
13 343
698
826

55 644
37 991
15 979
767
907

62 111
41 516
18 781
829
985

68 816
45 173
21 655
904
1 084

75 512
48 825
24 514
976
1 197

82 646
52 976
27 310
1 046
1 314

90 151
57 609
29 994
1 116
1 432

97 754
62 470
32 542
1 188
1 553

World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

148

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.3. Total population at mid-year by major area and region:


low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Population (thousands)
Major area and region

2015

2020

2030

2040

7 217 275

7 480 225

7 867 332

8 096 725

1 245 813
5 971 462
922 537
5 048 925

1 247 140
6 233 085
1 012 784
5 220 301

1 232 471
6 634 862
1 190 957
5 443 904

1 204 263
6 892 461
1 364 617
5 527 844

4 583 365

4 846 263

5 285 615

5 618 738

959 414

1 066 416

1 286 987

1 515 806

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

1 135 565
366 017
142 484
224 817
58 985
343 262

1 250 978
409 815
158 445
238 332
59 600
384 785

1 482 834
500 045
190 241
259 296
59 976
473 276

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

4 333 812
1 589 503
1 872 230
63 671
1 808 559
619 643
252 436

4 456 773
1 585 940
1 960 421
66 330
1 894 091
639 464
270 948

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

735 773
289 493
101 079
156 152
189 049

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................
Northern America

World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

8 112 191

7 940 112

7 624 235

7 191 850

6 691 274

6 177 378

1 157 559
6 954 632
1 517 378
5 437 253

1 095 230
6 844 882
1 642 492
5 202 391

1 029 404
6 594 831
1 732 671
4 862 160

962 506
6 229 344
1 782 151
4 447 194

895 340
5 795 934
1 793 130
4 002 804

830 115
5 347 263
1 771 626
3 575 637

5 797 705

5 827 871

5 721 175

5 492 839

5 181 194

4 827 318

1 731 743

1 923 233

2 078 979

2 187 567

2 245 386

2 254 281

1 717 227
595 076
220 198
273 981
59 007
568 963

1 931 855
686 922
245 146
280 136
56 680
662 971

2 115 104
770 895
263 664
277 443
53 645
749 457

2 257 071
842 457
274 068
266 774
49 960
823 813

2 348 286
896 750
275 777
249 811
45 562
880 386

2 387 588
932 153
269 516
229 187
40 811
915 920

2 378 387
948 761
256 780
207 002
36 124
929 721

4 593 575
1 539 901
2 086 578
69 615
2 016 963
664 184
302 912

4 602 379
1 452 733
2 149 334
71 031
2 078 303
671 162
329 150

4 457 562
1 321 336
2 134 341
70 293
2 064 048
655 578
346 307

4 189 424
1 165 311
2 049 459
67 342
1 982 117
621 077
353 578

3 835 105
1 005 820
1 904 378
62 905
1 841 472
573 275
351 632

3 427 049
853 787
1 715 334
57 406
1 657 927
516 498
341 431

3 008 905
719 013
1 507 814
51 583
1 456 231
456 810
325 267

2 623 609
613 202
1 304 769
46 107
1 258 662
400 628
305 010

728 433
282 438
102 397
155 301
188 298

704 288
264 565
103 861
151 156
184 707

673 203
244 705
103 310
145 829
179 359

632 130
222 520
100 671
137 952
170 986

582 463
199 097
96 399
126 182
160 785

532 599
176 124
91 536
113 566
151 373

485 889
155 245
86 170
102 310
142 164

443 300
138 040
80 253
92 524
132 483

405 145
123 756
74 430
83 962
122 998

616 354
42 647
164 830
408 877

636 114
43 285
171 974
420 854

659 971
43 708
182 086
434 178

664 070
42 912
186 902
434 257

645 870
40 662
185 234
419 973

610 622
37 835
178 036
394 752

563 055
34 568
167 356
361 131

506 032
30 953
153 491
321 588

444 831
27 188
137 419
280 225

385 381
23 638
120 891
240 852

356 749

366 764

381 944

392 460

395 958

393 352

387 782

377 343

361 550

342 377

39 023
28 158
9 607
565
694

41 164
29 436
10 427
589
712

44 720
31 358
11 999
624
739

47 385
32 554
13 437
640
755

48 817
32 904
14 539
630
744

49 147
32 546
15 251
617
733

48 622
31 768
15 542
591
721

47 252
30 609
15 398
550
695

45 100
29 083
14 860
501
655

42 478
27 380
14 036
451
612

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

149

Table A.4. Total population at mid-year by major area and region:


constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100
Constant-fertility variant
Population (thousands)
Major area and region

2015

2020

2030

7 323 598

7 772 757

8 700 336

9 722 061 10 942 544 12 475 188 14 518 851 17 339 315 21 289 304 26 843 946

1 253 674
6 069 924
942 022
5 127 902

1 266 176
6 506 581
1 071 673
5 434 908

1 276 310
7 424 026
1 393 708
6 030 318

1 271 037
8 451 024
1 827 402
6 623 623

4 664 593

5 076 758

5 985 373

7 047 608

8 359 117 10 021 750 12 205 124 15 163 501 19 242 074 24 911 634

977 516

1 122 099

1 489 711

1 999 101

2 720 067

3 741 903

5 194 022

7 270 510 10 246 711 14 519 642

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

1 157 022
373 190
145 955
229 117
60 006
348 755

1 315 899
432 190
169 247
250 468
62 405
401 590

1 711 238
581 452
229 591
295 039
67 942
537 213

2 247 831
786 449
315 714
343 936
74 019
727 714

2 996 915
1 075 181
441 545
400 736
81 199
998 254

4 046 528
1 481 047
625 836
466 531
89 652
1 383 461

5 526 726
2 051 700
897 128
544 425
99 315
1 934 158

7 634 194 10 645 899 14 958 647


2 860 210 4 008 783 5 643 676
1 298 370 1 892 524 2 772 095
641 090
763 243
917 105
110 223
122 559
136 634
2 724 301 3 858 791 5 489 136

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

4 401 495
1 607 784
1 906 998
64 797
1 842 201
629 731
256 983

4 639 486
1 631 459
2 057 173
69 363
1 987 810
666 606
284 248

5 080 986
1 634 893
2 364 534
77 715
2 286 818
737 456
344 103

5 493 204
1 589 996
2 687 424
86 022
2 601 402
802 415
413 369

5 907 516
1 505 891
3 040 676
94 823
2 945 853
862 674
498 275

6 343 488
1 392 470
3 426 678
103 365
3 323 313
920 293
604 048

6 858 178
1 272 578
3 867 178
112 544
3 754 634
979 354
739 068

7 513 470
1 155 394
4 394 497
122 827
4 271 670
1 045 629
917 949

8 378 958
1 047 750
5 048 001
134 500
4 913 501
1 124 729
1 158 478

9 529 633
955 646
5 871 863
148 051
5 723 812
1 220 242
1 481 882

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

740 052
291 048
101 773
157 084
190 148

738 379
285 703
104 163
157 503
191 010

725 437
270 735
108 099
155 719
190 883

703 238
252 918
110 008
151 856
188 456

671 658
232 070
110 385
145 535
183 667

632 165
209 751
109 612
135 262
177 541

590 747
187 041
108 289
123 494
171 923

551 566
165 586
106 625
112 751
166 605

515 958
147 220
104 552
103 234
160 953

482 234
130 690
102 330
94 210
155 004

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

625 994
43 309
167 792
414 893

662 568
45 103
180 231
437 234

733 756
48 744
205 961
479 051

799 945
52 230
232 588
515 127

862 516
55 790
260 598
546 128

924 515
60 238
290 662
573 615

990 291
65 731
325 522
599 038

1 063 632
72 494
366 650
624 488

1 149 358
80 764
415 822
652 771

1 251 847
90 824
475 517
685 505

Northern America

359 593

374 109

400 866

424 057

444 115

461 923

478 476

492 530

503 594

511 633

39 441
28 376
9 787
574
704

42 316
30 003
10 958
614
742

48 053
32 794
13 734
699
827

53 786
34 907
17 173
782
923

59 824
36 452
21 473
870
1 029

66 569
37 526
26 874
990
1 178

74 434
38 263
33 665
1 133
1 373

83 923
38 766
42 244
1 305
1 608

95 537
39 035
53 089
1 517
1 897

109 953
39 117
66 800
1 781
2 255

World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

150

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

1 251 913 1 221 939 1 188 073 1 154 447 1 122 433 1 089 829
9 690 631 11 253 249 13 330 779 16 184 868 20 166 871 25 754 117
2 433 594 3 287 602 4 501 409 6 247 050 8 770 761 12 429 526
7 257 037 7 965 647 8 829 370 9 937 818 11 396 110 13 324 591

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.5. Average annual rate of population change by major area and region:
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Annual rate of change (per cent)
Major area and region
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China

1950-1955 1960-1965 1970-1975 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
1.82

1.85

1.96

1.76

1.74

1.52

1.34

1.22

1.16

1.10

1.21
2.09
2.08
2.10

1.08
2.17
2.40
2.14

0.78
2.38
2.18
2.41

0.58
2.13
2.54
2.07

0.56
2.08
2.63
2.01

0.43
1.81
2.75
1.68

0.33
1.59
2.46
1.46

0.37
1.42
2.37
1.26

0.41
1.33
2.21
1.18

0.33
1.26
2.23
1.09

2.13

2.45

2.41

2.41

2.28

2.06

1.85

1.70

1.60

1.52

Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

2.05

2.43

2.69

2.82

2.77

2.69

2.53

2.48

2.45

2.44

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

2.11
2.25
1.93
2.34
2.30
1.84

2.44
2.68
2.32
2.46
2.56
2.20

2.65
2.85
2.59
2.56
2.67
2.54

2.80
2.90
2.89
2.78
2.56
2.72

2.69
2.99
3.00
2.35
2.31
2.62

2.53
2.58
3.37
1.98
2.37
2.61

2.36
2.75
2.51
1.75
1.64
2.50

2.33
2.54
2.85
1.72
1.31
2.53

2.30
2.52
2.66
1.74
1.02
2.57

2.27
2.60
2.51
1.61
0.62
2.57

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

1.98
1.91
1.90
2.96
1.86
2.22
2.74

1.99
1.55
2.24
3.53
2.18
2.65
2.71

2.28
2.21
2.27
2.38
2.27
2.45
2.67

1.94
1.38
2.39
2.05
2.40
2.25
2.83

1.92
1.47
2.30
1.93
2.32
2.06
2.46

1.63
1.08
2.08
1.15
2.12
1.74
2.33

1.38
0.82
1.83
0.72
1.88
1.51
1.99

1.18
0.56
1.60
0.71
1.64
1.33
2.19

1.08
0.47
1.44
1.14
1.45
1.16
2.41

0.99
0.38
1.38
1.16
1.38
1.07
1.88

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

1.00
1.48
0.40
0.85
0.67

0.96
1.06
0.72
0.82
1.04

0.61
0.67
0.38
0.87
0.43

0.40
0.59
0.18
0.44
0.16

0.38
0.45
0.30
0.24
0.43

0.19
-0.04
0.24
0.17
0.59

-0.02
-0.37
0.24
0.21
0.27

0.11
-0.43
0.41
0.69
0.36

0.20
-0.20
0.59
0.65
0.28

0.11
-0.17
0.54
0.29
0.15

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

2.71
1.90
2.97
2.75

2.76
2.15
3.09
2.73

2.41
1.72
2.91
2.32

2.10
1.43
2.13
2.17

1.92
1.39
2.08
1.93

1.71
1.27
1.91
1.69

1.55
1.07
1.69
1.54

1.32
0.88
1.40
1.34

1.15
0.72
1.39
1.10

1.07
0.66
1.32
1.01

Northern America

1.71

1.41

0.94

0.97

1.03

1.01

1.15

0.99

0.91

0.86

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

2.22
2.35
1.59
2.00
2.49

2.06
2.00
2.22
2.77
2.94

1.94
1.75
2.82
1.95
1.50

1.61
1.33
2.61
3.45
1.43

1.60
1.43
2.18
3.06
1.33

1.48
1.23
2.37
2.19
1.25

1.39
1.10
2.40
1.26
1.23

1.49
1.27
2.25
0.92
0.96

1.75
1.64
2.22
0.64
0.83

1.46
1.28
2.05
1.21
0.79

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

152

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.5. Average annual rate of population change by major area and region (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Annual rate of change (per cent)
2015-2020 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045 2050-2055 2060-2065 2070-2075 2080-2085 2090-2095 2095-2100

Major area and region

1.00

0.89

0.69

0.52

0.36

0.24

0.16

0.10

0.07

0.06

0.27
1.14
2.13
0.96

0.21
1.02
2.00
0.82

0.10
0.79
1.75
0.58

0.05
0.60
1.53
0.36

0.00
0.42
1.31
0.17

-0.02
0.28
1.10
0.02

0.02
0.18
0.91
-0.08

0.07
0.11
0.74
-0.14

0.08
0.07
0.59
-0.15

0.08
0.05
0.53
-0.16

1.40

1.27

1.03

0.82

0.62

0.45

0.32

0.21

0.14

0.11

2.37

2.23

2.02

1.80

1.56

1.33

1.11

0.91

0.73

0.64

2.19
2.52
2.37
1.47
0.53
2.52

2.06
2.36
2.21
1.27
0.52
2.40

1.85
2.12
1.88
0.97
0.34
2.19

1.65
1.91
1.57
0.74
0.21
1.97

1.42
1.67
1.28
0.50
0.12
1.72

1.21
1.44
1.00
0.27
0.04
1.47

1.01
1.23
0.74
0.11
-0.06
1.25

0.83
1.03
0.51
0.01
-0.14
1.02

0.66
0.85
0.31
-0.08
-0.18
0.81

0.59
0.77
0.23
-0.12
-0.19
0.72

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

0.85
0.23
1.22
1.14
1.22
0.94
1.70

0.71
0.08
1.06
0.94
1.06
0.80
1.53

0.45
-0.18
0.75
0.62
0.76
0.55
1.23

0.21
-0.43
0.49
0.46
0.49
0.30
0.99

0.01
-0.61
0.23
0.22
0.23
0.09
0.76

-0.16
-0.70
0.00
0.05
0.00
-0.08
0.55

-0.26
-0.68
-0.18
-0.05
-0.18
-0.19
0.40

-0.31
-0.61
-0.30
-0.12
-0.31
-0.25
0.28

-0.31
-0.44
-0.37
-0.13
-0.38
-0.26
0.19

-0.31
-0.36
-0.39
-0.12
-0.40
-0.25
0.14

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

0.06
-0.21
0.51
0.13
0.16

-0.01
-0.29
0.47
0.04
0.12

-0.12
-0.42
0.30
-0.05
0.03

-0.16
-0.41
0.18
-0.12
-0.05

-0.23
-0.44
0.12
-0.31
-0.08

-0.24
-0.46
0.08
-0.42
-0.02

-0.16
-0.36
0.09
-0.32
0.05

-0.06
-0.20
0.09
-0.17
0.08

-0.01
-0.10
0.10
-0.10
0.10

0.01
-0.08
0.10
-0.05
0.10

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

0.93
0.59
1.16
0.88

0.80
0.51
1.01
0.74

0.53
0.28
0.73
0.46

0.28
0.04
0.47
0.22

0.07
-0.08
0.22
0.02

-0.08
-0.16
0.09
-0.14

-0.20
-0.22
-0.03
-0.27

-0.27
-0.28
-0.14
-0.34

-0.31
-0.29
-0.20
-0.36

-0.30
-0.29
-0.22
-0.35

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

0.80

0.74

0.60

0.51

0.44

0.40

0.35

0.29

0.23

0.20

1.33
1.14
1.91
1.12
0.80

1.20
1.00
1.78
1.01
0.76

0.94
0.72
1.55
0.69
0.65

0.75
0.54
1.28
0.38
0.40

0.59
0.41
1.03
0.37
0.40

0.46
0.30
0.79
0.24
0.46

0.36
0.26
0.58
0.08
0.36

0.27
0.22
0.38
-0.05
0.22

0.19
0.19
0.21
-0.11
0.15

0.15
0.16
0.14
-0.12
0.12

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

Northern America
Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

153

Table A.6. Average annual rate of population change by major area and region:
high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Annual rate of change (per cent)
Major area and region
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China

2015-2020 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045 2050-2055 2060-2065 2070-2075 2080-2085 2090-2095 2095-2100
1.27

1.20

1.00

0.94

0.86

0.80

0.79

0.79

0.78

0.77

0.52
1.42
2.39
1.24

0.49
1.34
2.31
1.15

0.37
1.11
2.05
0.90

0.43
1.02
1.92
0.80

0.51
0.92
1.75
0.69

0.52
0.84
1.57
0.61

0.63
0.81
1.43
0.61

0.74
0.80
1.30
0.61

0.76
0.78
1.19
0.62

0.75
0.77
1.13
0.63

1.68

1.59

1.35

1.24

1.11

0.99

0.93

0.88

0.83

0.81

Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

2.61

2.52

2.30

2.17

1.97

1.77

1.61

1.44

1.29

1.23

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

2.45
2.77
2.61
1.76
0.84
2.75

2.36
2.65
2.49
1.60
0.89
2.66

2.13
2.41
2.18
1.28
0.73
2.46

2.02
2.29
1.96
1.15
0.74
2.32

1.84
2.08
1.72
1.00
0.72
2.11

1.66
1.88
1.48
0.82
0.67
1.90

1.52
1.72
1.29
0.74
0.66
1.71

1.37
1.55
1.11
0.70
0.63
1.53

1.24
1.41
0.96
0.65
0.62
1.35

1.18
1.35
0.90
0.63
0.63
1.27

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

1.13
0.50
1.51
1.45
1.51
1.23
1.97

1.03
0.38
1.39
1.29
1.40
1.14
1.84

0.77
0.12
1.10
0.94
1.10
0.88
1.52

0.66
0.00
0.95
0.92
0.95
0.74
1.39

0.54
-0.05
0.76
0.77
0.76
0.62
1.22

0.46
-0.03
0.61
0.64
0.61
0.52
1.06

0.46
0.10
0.54
0.65
0.53
0.50
0.98

0.48
0.26
0.49
0.64
0.49
0.52
0.92

0.51
0.42
0.47
0.64
0.47
0.54
0.86

0.52
0.48
0.47
0.65
0.47
0.55
0.83

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

0.31
0.06
0.75
0.36
0.39

0.28
0.01
0.76
0.30
0.40

0.16
-0.13
0.58
0.20
0.30

0.25
0.06
0.56
0.25
0.33

0.31
0.16
0.62
0.19
0.44

0.34
0.19
0.61
0.14
0.51

0.50
0.41
0.67
0.34
0.64

0.66
0.60
0.76
0.54
0.75

0.70
0.66
0.77
0.61
0.77

0.71
0.68
0.77
0.65
0.76

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

1.23
0.87
1.45
1.17

1.14
0.84
1.35
1.08

0.88
0.63
1.09
0.82

0.74
0.53
0.93
0.69

0.62
0.50
0.76
0.57

0.56
0.50
0.71
0.51

0.54
0.52
0.67
0.48

0.55
0.54
0.65
0.50

0.57
0.56
0.64
0.54

0.59
0.57
0.64
0.56

Northern America

1.05

1.02

0.87

0.86

0.90

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.85

0.83

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

1.58
1.39
2.17
1.40
1.07

1.49
1.29
2.09
1.34
1.08

1.21
0.97
1.85
1.01
0.97

1.11
0.89
1.66
0.80
0.84

1.05
0.87
1.47
0.89
0.93

0.94
0.78
1.28
0.79
1.00

0.91
0.80
1.12
0.70
0.96

0.88
0.84
0.97
0.66
0.87

0.82
0.82
0.84
0.63
0.83

0.80
0.80
0.79
0.62
0.81

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

154

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.7. Average annual rate of population change by major area and region:
low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Annual rate of change (per cent)
Major area and region
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China

2015-2020 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045 2050-2055 2060-2065 2070-2075 2080-2085 2090-2095 2095-2100
0.72

0.55

0.35

0.09

-0.16

-0.36

-0.54

-0.70

-0.79

-0.81

0.02
0.86
1.87
0.67

-0.09
0.68
1.68
0.48

-0.20
0.45
1.43
0.23

-0.35
0.16
1.14
-0.09

-0.53
-0.10
0.86
-0.38

-0.61
-0.32
0.60
-0.62

-0.66
-0.52
0.34
-0.84

-0.71
-0.69
0.11
-1.02

-0.75
-0.79
-0.08
-1.12

-0.76
-0.82
-0.16
-1.14

0.93

0.68

0.39

0.11

-0.13

-0.36

-0.55

-0.68

-0.73

2.12

1.93

1.71

1.41

1.12

0.85

0.57

0.32

0.09

-0.01

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

1.94
2.26
2.12
1.17
0.21
2.28

1.75
2.05
1.91
0.92
0.11
2.12

1.54
1.81
1.56
0.63
-0.10
1.91

1.25
1.51
1.16
0.31
-0.35
1.61

0.97
1.22
0.81
-0.02
-0.52
1.30

0.71
0.96
0.47
-0.32
-0.66
1.02

0.46
0.69
0.14
-0.60
-0.87
0.73

0.22
0.44
-0.16
-0.82
-1.06
0.46

0.01
0.23
-0.43
-0.99
-1.20
0.21

-0.09
0.13
-0.54
-1.05
-1.24
0.09

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

0.56
-0.05
0.92
0.82
0.92
0.63
1.42

0.36
-0.24
0.70
0.57
0.70
0.44
1.19

0.10
-0.50
0.39
0.26
0.39
0.19
0.91

-0.24
-0.86
0.02
-0.02
0.02
-0.15
0.59

-0.55
-1.19
-0.33
-0.36
-0.32
-0.47
0.28

-0.82
-1.43
-0.65
-0.62
-0.65
-0.74
0.01

-1.07
-1.60
-0.97
-0.86
-0.98
-0.99
-0.24

-1.27
-1.73
-1.24
-1.05
-1.25
-1.19
-0.44

-1.37
-1.64
-1.42
-1.12
-1.43
-1.31
-0.61

-1.38
-1.54
-1.47
-1.13
-1.49
-1.32
-0.68

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

-0.20
-0.49
0.26
-0.11
-0.08

-0.31
-0.62
0.17
-0.24
-0.17

-0.42
-0.75
0.00
-0.33
-0.26

-0.58
-0.90
-0.21
-0.49
-0.43

-0.79
-1.08
-0.40
-0.82
-0.60

-0.89
-1.20
-0.50
-1.04
-0.61

-0.92
-1.27
-0.57
-1.05
-0.61

-0.92
-1.20
-0.69
-1.01
-0.69

-0.91
-1.10
-0.75
-1.00
-0.74

-0.89
-1.08
-0.76
-0.95
-0.75

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

0.63
0.30
0.85
0.58

0.43
0.15
0.64
0.38

0.15
-0.10
0.35
0.09

-0.20
-0.45
-0.01
-0.25

-0.50
-0.68
-0.35
-0.55

-0.75
-0.86
-0.56
-0.82

-1.01
-1.05
-0.80
-1.10

-1.24
-1.26
-1.05
-1.33

-1.41
-1.39
-1.25
-1.50

-1.46
-1.41
-1.31
-1.53

Northern America

0.55

0.44

0.31

0.13

-0.04

-0.12

-0.23

-0.40

-0.52

-0.57

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

1.07
0.89
1.64
0.84
0.52

0.89
0.70
1.46
0.66
0.41

0.65
0.44
1.22
0.35
0.30

0.37
0.18
0.87
-0.06
-0.06

0.12
-0.07
0.55
-0.16
-0.16

-0.07
-0.21
0.26
-0.37
-0.14

-0.24
-0.34
-0.02
-0.64
-0.31

-0.43
-0.48
-0.30
-0.90
-0.54

-0.57
-0.58
-0.52
-1.05
-0.67

-0.63
-0.63
-0.62
-1.07
-0.71

a
b

1.12

Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

c
d
e
f
g
h

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

155

Table A.8. Average annual rate of population change by major area and region:
constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100
Constant-fertility variant
Annual rate of change (per cent)
Major area and region
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China

2015-2020 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045 2050-2055 2060-2065 2070-2075 2080-2085 2090-2095 2095-2100
1.19

1.15

1.10

1.16

1.27

1.46

1.71

1.98

2.25

2.38

0.20
1.39
2.58
1.16

0.11
1.34
2.62
1.08

-0.01
1.28
2.67
0.95

-0.13
1.35
2.83
0.92

-0.23
1.45
2.98
0.92

-0.28
1.64
3.11
1.00

-0.29
1.88
3.25
1.14

-0.28
2.13
3.37
1.32

-0.29
2.39
3.47
1.52

-0.30
2.50
3.51
1.61

1.69

1.66

1.62

1.69

1.78

1.93

2.12

2.33

2.54

2.63

Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

2.76

2.81

2.91

3.05

3.17

3.26

3.34

3.42

3.47

3.50

Africa
Eastern Africa .............................
Middle Africa..............................
Northern Africa...........................
Southern Africa...........................
Western Africa ............................

2.57
2.94
2.96
1.78
0.78
2.82

2.61
2.96
3.03
1.68
0.86
2.88

2.69
3.00
3.14
1.54
0.85
3.00

2.84
3.10
3.32
1.53
0.91
3.13

2.97
3.19
3.46
1.52
0.98
3.24

3.09
3.24
3.58
1.53
1.02
3.33

3.20
3.31
3.68
1.61
1.04
3.41

3.30
3.36
3.75
1.72
1.06
3.47

3.38
3.41
3.81
1.82
1.08
3.52

3.42
3.43
3.83
1.86
1.09
3.53

Asia (f)
Eastern Asia (f) ...........................
South-Central Asia (g) ................
Central Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia......................
Western Asia ...............................

1.05
0.29
1.52
1.36
1.52
1.14
2.02

0.96
0.11
1.44
1.21
1.45
1.05
1.95

0.80
-0.22
1.29
1.02
1.30
0.88
1.84

0.74
-0.47
1.25
1.00
1.26
0.75
1.85

0.71
-0.74
1.20
0.88
1.21
0.66
1.91

0.75
-0.89
1.20
0.84
1.21
0.62
1.99

0.87
-0.95
1.25
0.87
1.27
0.64
2.13

1.04
-0.99
1.36
0.90
1.37
0.71
2.29

1.24
-0.93
1.48
0.95
1.49
0.79
2.43

1.34
-0.91
1.54
0.97
1.56
0.84
2.49

Europe
Eastern Europe ............................
Northern Europe..........................
Southern Europe..........................
Western Europe ...........................

-0.05
-0.37
0.46
0.05
0.09

-0.14
-0.49
0.40
-0.07
0.02

-0.28
-0.64
0.22
-0.22
-0.10

-0.42
-0.81
0.07
-0.37
-0.23

-0.58
-0.98
-0.05
-0.66
-0.33

-0.67
-1.11
-0.12
-0.89
-0.33

-0.69
-1.22
-0.14
-0.92
-0.31

-0.67
-1.19
-0.19
-0.88
-0.34

-0.67
-1.17
-0.21
-0.91
-0.37

-0.68
-1.21
-0.22
-0.92
-0.39

Latin America and Caribbean


Caribbean ....................................
Central America ..........................
South America ............................

1.14
0.81
1.43
1.05

1.06
0.80
1.37
0.97

0.90
0.71
1.24
0.77

0.78
0.66
1.15
0.62

0.70
0.74
1.08
0.51

0.69
0.85
1.12
0.44

0.70
0.95
1.17
0.41

0.76
1.05
1.24
0.43

0.83
1.15
1.32
0.48

0.88
1.20
1.36
0.50

Northern America

0.79

0.72

0.59

0.48

0.41

0.36

0.31

0.24

0.18

0.14

Oceania
Australia/New Zealand ...............
Melanesia ....................................
Micronesia...................................
Polynesia (h) ...............................

1.41
1.12
2.26
1.37
1.03

1.31
0.96
2.26
1.34
1.08

1.15
0.68
2.24
1.16
1.12

1.07
0.48
2.23
1.06
1.07

1.06
0.32
2.24
1.27
1.29

1.10
0.21
2.25
1.34
1.51

1.18
0.15
2.27
1.39
1.57

1.27
0.08
2.28
1.48
1.63

1.38
0.04
2.29
1.59
1.71

1.43
0.01
2.30
1.63
1.74

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

156

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Includes other non-specified areas.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country:
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China

1950

1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2 532 229 3 038 413 3 696 186 4 453 007 4 863 290 5 306 425 5 726 239 6 122 770 6 506 649 6 895 889
811 187
913 330 1 006 421 1 081 094 1 112 951 1 144 404 1 169 451 1 188 809 1 210 897 1 235 900
1 721 042 2 125 083 2 689 765 3 371 913 3 750 339 4 162 021 4 556 788 4 933 961 5 295 752 5 659 989
196 088
243 650
312 030
393 768
447 167
510 107
585 251
661 996
745 291
832 330
1 524 954 1 881 432 2 377 735 2 978 145 3 303 173 3 651 914 3 971 537 4 271 965 4 550 461 4 827 660
1 160 539 1 453 073 1 856 374 2 365 633 2 668 824 2 990 440 3 315 102 3 635 693 3 958 139 4 287 841

Sub-Saharan Africa (e)

186 103

230 797

295 971

389 802

448 863

515 593

589 677

669 123

757 513

Africa

229 895

286 729

368 148

482 803

555 276

635 287

720 931

811 101

911 120 1 022 234

Eastern Africa
Burundi ...............................................
Comoros..............................................
Djibouti ...............................................
Eritrea..................................................
Ethiopia ...............................................
Kenya ..................................................
Madagascar .........................................
Malawi ................................................
Mauritius (1) .......................................
Mayotte ...............................................
Mozambique .......................................
Runion ...............................................
Rwanda ...............................................
Seychelles ...........................................
Somalia ...............................................
Uganda ................................................
UR Tanzania (2) .................................
Zambia ................................................
Zimbabwe ...........................................

64 757
2 456
156
62
1 141
18 434
6 077
4 084
2 881
493
15
6 442
248
2 072
36
2 264
5 158
7 650
2 340
2 747

81 887
2 940
193
85
1 424
22 553
8 105
5 104
3 525
659
24
7 647
335
2 771
41
2 819
6 788
10 074
3 045
3 752

107 628
3 513
238
162
1 847
28 959
11 252
6 549
4 531
827
37
9 453
462
3 749
52
3 601
9 446
13 605
4 139
5 206

143 575
4 130
329
340
2 469
35 426
16 268
8 609
6 240
964
55
12 146
510
5 179
63
6 436
12 662
18 686
5 775
7 289

166 013
4 851
386
403
2 806
41 078
19 655
9 785
7 268
1 014
71
13 335
560
6 081
67
6 364
14 801
21 848
6 785
8 855

192 801
5 602
438
562
3 158
48 333
23 447
11 281
9 381
1 060
92
13 547
612
7 110
71
6 599
17 700
25 479
7 860
10 469

219 318
6 087
494
627
3 213
57 042
27 426
13 129
9 883
1 137
122
15 933
676
5 570
75
6 525
20 831
29 944
8 919
11 685

251 584
6 374
562
732
3 668
65 578
31 254
15 364
11 229
1 196
149
18 201
739
8 098
79
7 399
24 213
34 038
10 202
12 509

285 713
7 251
643
808
4 486
74 264
35 615
17 886
12 823
1 257
175
20 770
795
9 202
84
8 360
28 431
38 831
11 462
12 571

324 044
8 383
735
889
5 254
82 950
40 513
20 714
14 901
1 299
204
23 391
846
10 624
87
9 331
33 425
44 841
13 089
12 571

Middle Africa
Angola.................................................
Cameroon............................................
Central African Rep. ...........................
Chad ....................................................
Congo..................................................
DR Congo ...........................................
Equatorial Guinea ...............................
Gabon..................................................
Sao Tome and Principe .......................

26 116
4 148
4 466
1 327
2 429
808
12 184
226
469
60

32 013
4 963
5 409
1 504
2 954
1 014
15 368
252
486
64

40 749
5 926
6 842
1 829
3 656
1 335
20 267
291
530
74

53 391
7 638
9 110
2 274
4 554
1 798
27 019
221
683
95

61 698
9 066
10 519
2 627
5 151
2 081
31 044
313
794
104

71 676
10 335
12 181
2 935
6 011
2 389
36 406
374
929
116

84 829
12 105
13 940
3 328
6 998
2 733
44 067
443
1 087
128

96 187
13 926
15 678
3 702
8 222
3 136
49 626
520
1 235
141

110 931
16 489
17 554
4 018
9 786
3 533
57 421
608
1 371
153

126 689
19 082
19 599
4 401
11 227
4 043
65 966
700
1 505
165

Northern Africa
Algeria.................................................
Egypt ...................................................
Libya ...................................................
Morocco ..............................................
Sudan (3) ............................................
Tunisia.................................................
Western Sahara....................................

52 982
8 753
21 514
1 029
8 953
9 190
3 530
14

67 493
10 800
27 903
1 349
11 626
11 562
4 221
33

86 943
13 746
35 923
1 994
15 310
14 766
5 127
77

113 072
18 811
44 952
3 063
19 567
20 071
6 457
150

129 955
22 098
50 660
3 850
22 291
23 543
7 330
184

146 188
25 299
56 843
4 334
24 781
26 494
8 215
221

161 395
28 292
62 064
4 775
26 929
30 141
8 936
259

176 166
30 534
67 648
5 231
28 793
34 188
9 456
315

192 017
32 888
74 203
5 770
30 392
38 410
9 912
440

209 459
35 468
81 121
6 355
31 951
43 552
10 481
531

Southern Africa
Botswana.............................................
Lesotho................................................
Namibia...............................................
South Africa ........................................
Swaziland............................................

15 588
413
734
485
13 683
273

19 724
524
852
603
17 396
349

25 454
693
1 033
780
22 502
446

33 000
996
1 310
1 013
29 077
603

37 509
1 183
1 487
1 150
32 983
706

42 093
1 382
1 639
1 415
36 794
863

47 398
1 586
1 795
1 651
41 402
964

51 442
1 758
1 964
1 896
44 760
1 064

54 919
1 876
2 066
2 080
47 793
1 105

57 780
2 007
2 171
2 283
50 133
1 186

Western Africa
Benin ...................................................
Burkina Faso .......................................
Cape Verde ..........................................

70 451
2 255
4 284
178

85 611
2 420
4 882
211

107 374
2 850
5 807
274

139 766
3 611
7 212
300

160 101
4 140
8 170
328

182 529
4 773
9 324
348

207 992
5 651
10 692
395

235 722
6 518
12 294
437

267 540
7 634
14 198
473

304 261
8 850
16 469
496

158

856 327

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Population (thousands)
2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Major area, region and country

7 284 296 7 656 528 8 321 380 8 874 041 9 306 128 9 615 189 9 827 113 9 968 538 10 062 090 10 124 926 World
1 256 172
6 028 124
930 629
5 097 495

1 273 439
6 383 089
1 035 443
5 347 646

1 296 089
7 025 290
1 256 762
5 768 528

1 306 885
7 567 156
1 489 296
6 077 860

1 311 731
7 994 397
1 726 468
6 267 928

1 310 345
8 304 845
1 958 005
6 346 840

1 309 184
8 517 929
2 175 214
6 342 715

1 313 988
8 654 550
2 371 781
6 282 769

1 323 738
8 738 353
2 543 902
6 194 451

1 334 786
8 790 140
2 690 518
6 099 623

4 627 034 4 963 563 5 600 083 6 174 657 6 668 507 7 064 671 7 365 095 7 580 988 7 729 384 7 825 179
967 357 1 088 812 1 353 772 1 647 278 1 960 102 2 277 259 2 586 767 2 876 501 3 135 614 3 358 050
1 145 316 1 278 199 1 562 047 1 869 561 2 191 599 2 512 188 2 820 005 3 105 039 3 358 296 3 574 141

More dev. regions (a)


Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)
Africa

369 106
9 231
832
975
6 077
92 000
46 332
23 853
17 523
1 334
237
26 162
893
12 295
88
10 607
39 113
52 311
15 242
14 001

418 637
10 057
933
1 066
6 848
101 046
52 564
27 366
20 677
1 361
271
29 177
936
14 042
90
12 237
45 424
61 081
17 918
15 543

526 697
11 441
1 160
1 263
8 394
118 515
65 928
35 333
28 174
1 394
342
35 907
1 006
17 579
92
16 360
59 846
81 852
24 482
17 627

647 971
12 651
1 426
1 447
10 033
133 466
80 975
44 132
37 798
1 395
420
43 021
1 056
21 616
93
21 669
76 438
107 737
33 355
19 243

779 613
13 703
1 700
1 620
11 568
145 187
96 887
53 561
49 719
1 367
493
50 192
1 083
26 003
91
28 217
94 259
138 312
45 037
20 614

915 390 1 051 184 1 182 150 1 304 031 1 414 284
14 379
14 736
14 870
14 807
14 587
2 002
2 305
2 588
2 837
3 047
1 743
1 832
1 889
1 919
1 923
12 859
13 934
14 739
15 245
15 496
153 420
157 446
157 492
154 636
150 140
112 540
127 319
140 524
151 551
160 009
63 179
72 472
80 989
88 296
94 222
63 324
78 638
95 153
112 269
129 502
1 323
1 275
1 227
1 186
1 157
556
609
650
676
688
57 280
63 743
69 335
73 892
77 347
1 098
1 104
1 103
1 096
1 086
30 115
34 039
37 541
40 302
42 316
88
84
80
76
73
35 954
44 652
54 004
63 596
72 976
112 557
130 268
146 386
160 173
171 190
172 232
208 563
245 780
282 219
316 338
59 208
76 198
95 728
117 253
140 348
21 532
21 967
22 074
22 001
21 838

Eastern Africa
Burundi .............................................
Comoros............................................
Djibouti .............................................
Eritrea................................................
Ethiopia .............................................
Kenya ................................................
Madagascar .......................................
Malawi ..............................................
Mauritius (1) .....................................
Mayotte .............................................
Mozambique .....................................
Runion .............................................
Rwanda .............................................
Seychelles .........................................
Somalia .............................................
Uganda ..............................................
UR Tanzania (2) ...............................
Zambia ..............................................
Zimbabwe .........................................

143 631
21 842
21 816
4 854
12 778
4 508
75 190
802
1 656
182

161 689
24 780
24 117
5 343
14 469
5 003
85 054
905
1 818
200

200 021
30 801
28 811
6 365
18 437
6 169
105 956
1 102
2 146
235

239 561
36 753
33 694
7 394
22 783
7 462
127 441
1 298
2 468
269

278 350
42 334
38 472
8 392
27 252
8 801
148 523
1 493
2 784
299

314 153
47 243
42 871
9 264
31 613
10 125
167 980
1 664
3 071
324

344 757
51 134
46 687
9 954
35 587
11 389
184 539
1 808
3 316
342

368 940
53 887
49 791
10 464
38 988
12 527
197 495
1 923
3 512
352

386 228
55 475
52 123
10 794
41 695
13 481
206 633
2 005
3 665
357

396 869
56 052
53 693
10 954
43 648
14 224
212 113
2 054
3 776
356

Middle Africa
Angola...............................................
Cameroon..........................................
Central African Rep. .........................
Chad ..................................................
Congo................................................
DR Congo .........................................
Equatorial Guinea .............................
Gabon................................................
Sao Tome and Principe .....................

227 031
37 954
88 179
6 606
33 570
49 072
11 026
624

244 306
40 180
94 810
7 083
35 078
54 919
11 518
718

275 131
43 475
106 498
7 783
37 502
66 856
12 212
805

301 339
45 490
116 232
8 360
38 806
79 056
12 533
863

322 458
46 522
123 452
8 773
39 200
90 962
12 649
901

336 984
46 166
127 730
8 893
38 750
102 055
12 475
915

344 764
44 743
129 251
8 804
37 516
111 525
12 018
906

347 563
43 065
128 441
8 643
35 948
119 025
11 551
890

347 043
41 492
126 277
8 395
34 437
124 360
11 208
873

343 712
39 983
123 227
8 073
33 068
127 621
10 891
848

Northern Africa
Algeria...............................................
Egypt .................................................
Libya .................................................
Morocco ............................................
Sudan (3) ..........................................
Tunisia...............................................
Western Sahara..................................

59 585
2 115
2 286
2 483
51 431
1 269

61 187
2 206
2 395
2 672
52 573
1 341

64 126
2 344
2 566
3 042
54 711
1 462

66 095
2 436
2 692
3 354
56 040
1 573

67 327
2 503
2 788
3 599
56 757
1 679

68 031
2 536
2 842
3 770
57 120
1 763

68 145
2 541
2 860
3 854
57 076
1 815

67 616
2 528
2 862
3 860
56 533
1 833

66 605
2 505
2 863
3 812
55 595
1 829

65 369
2 476
2 874
3 728
54 477
1 813

Southern Africa
Botswana...........................................
Lesotho..............................................
Namibia.............................................
South Africa ......................................
Swaziland..........................................

345 963
10 129
19 118
520

392 379
11 523
22 150
544

496 071
14 630
29 112
588

614 595
18 091
37 361
618

743 850
21 734
46 721
632

877 629 1 011 156 1 138 770 1 254 390 1 353 906
25 397
28 904
32 051
34 693
36 752
56 786
67 253
77 687
87 534
96 367
630
612
582
548
520

Western Africa
Benin .................................................
Burkina Faso .....................................
Cape Verde ........................................

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

159

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Cte d'Ivoire........................................
Gambia................................................
Ghana ..................................................
Guinea .................................................
Guinea-Bissau .....................................
Liberia .................................................
Mali .....................................................
Mauritania ...........................................
Niger ...................................................
Nigeria.................................................
St. Helena (4) ......................................
Senegal................................................
Sierra Leone ........................................
Togo ....................................................
Asia (5)

1950

1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2 630
271
4 981
3 094
518
911
4 638
657
2 462
37 860
5
2 416
1 895
1 395

3 638
373
6 742
3 541
593
1 116
5 248
854
3 250
45 926
5
3 048
2 187
1 578

5 416
459
8 682
4 154
603
1 440
6 034
1 134
4 373
57 357
5
4 096
2 593
2 097

8 501
630
10 923
4 407
835
1 923
7 246
1 518
5 871
75 543
5
5 414
3 162
2 667

10 495
768
12 872
4 924
922
2 212
8 010
1 748
6 744
85 829
6
6 232
3 541
3 161

12 518
966
14 793
5 759
1 017
2 127
8 673
1 996
7 788
97 552
6
7 242
3 982
3 666

14 677
1 126
16 997
7 565
1 125
2 095
9 825
2 292
9 179
110 015
5
8 369
3 898
4 085

16 582
1 297
19 165
8 344
1 241
2 847
11 295
2 643
10 922
123 689
5
9 506
4 143
4 794

18 021
1 504
21 640
9 041
1 368
3 183
13 177
3 047
12 994
139 823
5
10 872
5 153
5 408

19 738
1 728
24 392
9 982
1 515
3 994
15 370
3 460
15 512
158 423
4
12 434
5 868
6 028

1 403 389 1 707 682 2 134 993 2 637 586 2 906 851 3 199 481 3 470 446 3 719 044 3 944 992 4 164 252

Eastern Asia (5)


China (6) .............................................
China, Hong Kong SAR (7) ...............
China, Macao SAR (8) .......................
DPR Korea ..........................................
Japan ...................................................
Mongolia .............................................
Rep. of Korea ......................................

672 432
550 771
1 974
196
9 737
82 199
780
19 211

801 489
658 270
3 076
171
10 946
92 501
957
25 074

984 073 1 178 587 1 262 663 1 359 149 1 434 912 1 495 281 1 537 343 1 573 970
814 623
983 171 1 056 579 1 145 195 1 213 987 1 269 117 1 307 593 1 341 335
3 958
5 054
5 415
5 794
6 144
6 783
6 810
7 053
251
246
296
360
398
432
481
544
14 247
17 239
18 721
20 143
21 771
22 894
23 746
24 346
103 710
115 915
119 991
122 251
124 487
125 720
126 393
126 536
1 282
1 693
1 926
2 193
2 306
2 411
2 547
2 756
31 443
37 460
40 510
42 980
44 662
45 988
47 044
48 184

South-Central Asia (9)

507 072

620 016

778 832

Central Asia........................................
Kazakhstan..........................................
Kyrgyzstan ..........................................
Tajikistan.............................................
Turkmenistan ......................................
Uzbekistan...........................................

17 499
6 703
1 740
1 532
1 211
6 314

24 403
9 996
2 173
2 082
1 594
8 559

33 177
13 110
2 964
2 942
2 188
11 973

Southern Asia .....................................


Afghanistan .........................................
Bangladesh..........................................
Bhutan .................................................
India ....................................................
Iran ......................................................
Maldives..............................................
Nepal ...................................................
Pakistan ...............................................
Sri Lanka.............................................

489 573
8 151
37 895
168
371 857
17 414
74
8 231
37 542
8 241

595 613
9 671
50 102
226
447 844
21 999
90
9 740
45 920
10 020

745 655
11 965
66 881
302
553 874
28 662
116
11 918
59 383
12 555

944 653 1 065 191 1 195 985 1 329 458 1 460 201 1 584 702 1 704 146
14 186
12 625
13 032
19 790
22 856
27 615
31 412
80 624
92 284
105 256
117 487
129 592
140 588
148 692
431
490
559
519
571
659
726
700 059
784 491
873 785
964 486 1 053 898 1 140 043 1 224 614
38 577
46 497
54 871
59 757
65 342
69 732
73 974
157
187
219
249
273
295
316
15 045
16 936
19 081
21 595
24 401
27 282
29 959
80 493
95 470
111 845
127 347
144 522
158 645
173 593
15 083
16 210
17 337
18 229
18 745
19 843
20 860

South-Eastern Asia
Brunei Darussalam..............................
Cambodia ............................................
Indonesia .............................................
Lao PDR..............................................
Malaysia (10) ......................................
Myanmar .............................................
Philippines...........................................
Singapore ............................................
Thailand ..............................................
Timor-Leste.........................................
Viet Nam .............................................

172 905
48
4 346
74 837
1 683
6 110
17 158
18 397
1 022
20 607
433
28 264

219 336
80
5 433
91 947
2 130
8 160
20 957
26 010
1 634
27 312
500
35 173

285 163
125
6 938
118 362
2 691
10 909
26 164
35 451
2 074
36 915
604
44 928

359 012
189
6 506
150 820
3 235
13 833
32 865
47 064
2 415
47 483
581
54 023

401 854
219
7 920
168 119
3 648
15 763
36 128
54 053
2 709
52 329
660
60 307

445 361
252
9 532
184 346
4 192
18 209
39 268
61 629
3 017
57 072
743
67 102

485 756
290
11 169
199 400
4 795
20 721
42 133
69 255
3 482
59 650
853
74 008

523 831
327
12 447
213 395
5 317
23 415
44 958
77 310
3 919
63 155
830
78 758

559 881
363
13 358
227 303
5 753
26 100
46 321
85 546
4 266
66 698
1 010
83 161

593 415
399
14 138
239 871
6 201
28 401
47 963
93 261
5 086
69 122
1 124
87 848

Western Asia
Armenia...............................................
Azerbaijan (11) ...................................
Bahrain................................................
Cyprus (12) .........................................

50 979
1 354
2 896
116
494

66 841
1 867
3 894
162
573

86 925
2 518
5 172
212
614

114 021
3 096
6 161
358
686

131 379
3 339
6 670
417
704

148 575
3 545
7 212
493
767

166 919
3 223
7 765
559
855

184 369
3 076
8 111
638
943

205 703
3 066
8 588
725
1 033

231 995
3 092
9 188
1 262
1 104

160

985 965 1 110 955 1 246 396 1 382 859 1 515 563 1 642 065 1 764 872
41 312
14 919
3 627
3 953
2 861
15 952

45 764
15 780
4 013
4 567
3 229
18 174

50 411
16 530
4 395
5 303
3 668
20 515

53 401
15 926
4 592
5 775
4 188
22 919

55 361
14 957
4 955
6 173
4 501
24 776

57 363
15 172
5 042
6 453
4 748
25 947

60 726
16 026
5 334
6 879
5 042
27 445

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Population (thousands)
2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

22 015
1 976
27 315
11 317
1 681
4 558
17 819
3 869
18 500
179 791
4
14 161
6 514
6 674

24 503
2 242
30 325
12 765
1 863
5 166
20 537
4 298
22 071
203 869
4
15 998
7 178
7 343

29 823
2 818
36 537
15 946
2 263
6 533
26 784
5 200
30 841
257 815
4
19 963
8 532
8 684

35 301
3 427
42 941
19 414
2 706
8 065
34 100
6 146
41 968
320 341
4
24 269
9 872
9 970

40 674
4 036
49 107
23 006
3 185
9 660
42 130
7 085
55 435
389 615
4
28 607
11 088
11 130

45 563
4 612
54 648
26 533
3 682
11 271
50 535
7 976
70 894
462 103
4
32 762
12 144
12 089

49 623
5 123
59 371
29 814
4 178
12 840
59 009
8 789
87 786
535 498
4
36 558
12 995
12 800

52 766
5 544
63 077
32 664
4 660
14 280
67 095
9 484
105 372
606 865
4
39 768
13 604
13 266

55 011
5 865
65 686
34 963
5 112
15 524
74 352
10 034
122 781
672 522
4
42 276
13 978
13 508

2100 Major area, region and country


56 412
6 084
67 230
36 664
5 518
16 535
80 506
10 434
139 209
729 885
3
44 075
14 154
13 558

4 375 482 4 565 520 4 867 741 5 060 964 5 142 220 5 122 743 5 029 489 4 892 292 4 740 484 4 596 224

Cte d'Ivoire......................................
Gambia..............................................
Ghana ................................................
Guinea ...............................................
Guinea-Bissau ...................................
Liberia ...............................................
Mali ...................................................
Mauritania .........................................
Niger .................................................
Nigeria...............................................
St. Helena (4) ....................................
Senegal..............................................
Sierra Leone ......................................
Togo ..................................................
Asia (5)

1 604 111 1 622 681 1 625 463 1 586 456 1 511 963 1 418 104 1 322 756 1 237 309 1 168 978 1 122 895
1 369 743 1 387 792 1 393 076 1 360 906 1 295 604 1 211 538 1 125 903 1 048 132
984 547
941 042
7 431
7 803
8 483
8 947
9 305
9 567
9 738
9 892
10 105
10 355
601
654
742
797
824
831
821
808
803
810
24 854
25 355
26 180
26 445
26 382
26 161
25 764
25 334
24 925
24 552
126 072
124 804
120 218
114 340
108 549
103 241
98 126
94 365
92 345
91 330
2 975
3 186
3 524
3 818
4 093
4 274
4 418
4 564
4 700
4 831
49 120
49 810
50 335
49 354
47 050
44 254
41 614
39 483
38 040
37 221

Eastern Asia (5)


China (6) ...........................................
China, Hong Kong SAR (7) .............
China, Macao SAR (8) .....................
DPR Korea ........................................
Japan .................................................
Mongolia ...........................................
Rep. of Korea ....................................

1 890 582 2 009 512 2 215 897 2 373 483 2 475 684 2 518 193 2 506 458 2 453 718 2 376 691 2 288 981

South-Central Asia (9)

64 338
16 886
5 627
7 400
5 364
29 060

68 104
17 680
6 012
7 961
5 675
30 776

74 094
18 873
6 666
9 016
6 165
33 375

78 542
20 048
7 263
9 927
6 475
34 829

81 799
21 210
7 768
10 745
6 639
35 438

83 208
22 027
8 149
11 343
6 634
35 054

83 366
22 823
8 474
11 699
6 487
33 883

82 799
23 624
8 740
11 845
6 255
32 335

81 801
24 292
8 997
11 815
5 986
30 712

80 783
24 876
9 258
11 687
5 708
29 254

Central Asia......................................
Kazakhstan........................................
Kyrgyzstan ........................................
Tajikistan...........................................
Turkmenistan ....................................
Uzbekistan.........................................

1 826 245 1 941 409 2 141 803 2 294 941 2 393 885 2 434 985 2 423 092 2 370 919 2 294 890 2 208 198
36 735
42 141
53 266
64 784
76 250
86 990
96 124
103 243
108 167
110 879
158 317
167 256
181 863
190 934
194 353
192 384
185 934
176 612
166 450
157 134
784
829
899
943
962
954
921
874
826
782
1 308 221 1 386 909 1 523 482 1 627 029 1 692 008 1 717 969 1 708 200 1 670 462 1 614 974 1 550 899
77 914
81 045
84 439
85 893
85 344
81 684
76 016
70 002
65 353
62 059
337
356
383
398
405
399
379
350
321
300
32 581
35 164
39 943
43 749
46 495
48 094
48 490
47 853
46 527
44 987
189 648
205 364
234 432
257 778
274 875
283 959
285 191
280 415
271 822
261 271
21 709
22 344
23 094
23 433
23 193
22 552
21 837
21 109
20 451
19 888

Southern Asia ...................................


Afghanistan .......................................
Bangladesh........................................
Bhutan ...............................................
India ..................................................
Iran ....................................................
Maldives............................................
Nepal .................................................
Pakistan .............................................
Sri Lanka...........................................

625 987
433
15 015
251 880
6 628
30 714
49 902
101 421
5 375
70 876
1 301
92 443

655 940
465
15 893
262 569
7 045
32 986
51 688
109 742
5 597
72 091
1 510
96 355

705 987
522
17 363
279 659
7 754
37 266
54 331
126 321
5 978
73 321
1 989
101 483

740 898
568
18 361
290 223
8 187
40 800
55 410
141 675
6 145
72 994
2 487
104 047

759 207
602
18 965
293 456
8 384
43 455
55 296
154 939
6 106
71 037
3 006
103 962

762 306
624
19 118
290 257
8 373
45 437
54 223
165 507
6 006
68 262
3 512
100 987

753 929
639
18 788
282 799
8 141
46 701
52 401
172 893
5 887
65 340
3 947
96 391

738 249
649
18 135
273 363
7 751
47 239
50 350
177 082
5 758
62 547
4 302
91 074

719 622
658
17 392
263 482
7 326
47 247
48 504
178 485
5 681
60 093
4 570
86 184

701 323
667
16 661
254 178
6 956
46 946
46 941
177 803
5 659
58 166
4 742
82 604

South-Eastern Asia
Brunei Darussalam............................
Cambodia ..........................................
Indonesia ...........................................
Lao PDR............................................
Malaysia (10) ....................................
Myanmar ...........................................
Philippines.........................................
Singapore ..........................................
Thailand ............................................
Timor-Leste.......................................
Viet Nam ...........................................

254 802
3 133
9 750
1 404
1 165

277 387
3 146
10 231
1 508
1 218

320 394
3 105
10 807
1 654
1 301

360 127
3 036
11 274
1 758
1 344

395 367
2 931
11 578
1 801
1 347

424 140
2 796
11 671
1 766
1 327

446 346
2 659
11 747
1 703
1 288

463 015
2 516
11 772
1 658
1 244

475 193
2 403
11 857
1 627
1 211

483 025
2 335
11 976
1 580
1 192

Western Asia
Armenia.............................................
Azerbaijan (11) .................................
Bahrain..............................................
Cyprus (12) .......................................

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

161

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

1950

1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

3 527
5 719
1 258
449
152
1 443
932
456
25
3 121
3 413
21 238
70
4 316

4 160
7 380
2 090
895
264
1 908
1 069
557
47
4 041
4 567
28 161
90
5 116

4 707
10 022
2 850
1 667
753
2 464
1 125
732
108
5 772
6 368
35 464
232
6 145

5 073
13 744
3 746
2 299
1 377
2 795
1 510
1 181
222
9 801
8 907
44 105
1 016
7 945

5 287
15 477
4 083
2 803
1 742
2 885
1 760
1 539
368
13 220
10 577
49 400
1 349
9 758

5 460
17 374
4 500
3 416
2 088
2 948
2 081
1 868
474
16 139
12 324
54 130
1 809
11 948

5 069
20 288
5 332
4 382
1 628
3 463
2 596
2 232
501
18 492
14 171
58 865
2 349
15 148

4 746
23 857
6 015
4 827
1 941
3 742
3 199
2 264
591
20 045
15 989
63 628
3 033
17 723

4 477
27 359
6 605
5 342
2 264
4 052
3 556
2 430
821
24 041
18 484
68 143
4 069
20 649

4 352
31 672
7 418
6 187
2 737
4 228
4 039
2 782
1 759
27 448
20 411
72 752
7 512
24 053

547 287

603 854

655 879

692 869

706 800

720 497

727 422

726 777

730 736

738 199

Eastern Europe
Belarus ................................................
Bulgaria...............................................
Czech Rep. ..........................................
Hungary...............................................
Poland .................................................
Rep. of Moldova (15) ..........................
Romania ..............................................
Russian Federation..............................
Slovakia...............................................
Ukraine................................................

220 123
7 745
7 251
8 876
9 338
24 824
2 341
16 311
102 702
3 437
37 298

252 787
8 190
7 867
9 522
9 983
29 033
3 004
18 407
119 906
4 094
42 783

276 227
9 040
8 490
9 789
10 315
32 529
3 595
20 253
130 392
4 509
47 317

294 929
9 659
8 862
10 262
10 699
35 577
4 010
22 201
138 655
4 962
50 044

303 677
9 999
8 960
10 301
10 543
37 202
4 215
22 725
143 642
5 142
50 949

310 543
10 260
8 819
10 303
10 376
38 056
4 364
23 207
148 244
5 270
51 645

309 882
10 274
8 357
10 319
10 331
38 392
4 339
22 681
148 699
5 369
51 122

304 172
10 058
8 006
10 243
10 211
38 302
4 107
22 192
146 758
5 405
48 892

297 758
9 825
7 739
10 221
10 087
38 165
3 767
21 772
143 843
5 415
46 924

294 771
9 595
7 494
10 493
9 984
38 277
3 573
21 486
142 958
5 462
45 448

Northern Europe
Channel Islands (16) ...........................
Denmark..............................................
Estonia.................................................
Faeroe Islands .....................................
Finland (17) .........................................
Iceland.................................................
Ireland .................................................
Isle of Man ..........................................
Latvia ..................................................
Lithuania .............................................
Norway (18) ........................................
Sweden................................................
United Kingdom..................................

78 035
102
4 268
1 101
32
4 009
143
2 913
55
1 949
2 567
3 265
7 014
50 616

81 930
109
4 580
1 216
34
4 430
176
2 829
48
2 132
2 770
3 581
7 480
52 544

87 352
121
4 929
1 365
39
4 606
204
2 963
57
2 366
3 137
3 877
8 043
55 645

89 900
128
5 123
1 473
43
4 779
228
3 418
65
2 513
3 430
4 086
8 310
56 303

90 724
133
5 114
1 526
45
4 902
241
3 534
64
2 582
3 562
4 153
8 350
56 517

92 114
140
5 141
1 568
48
4 986
255
3 531
70
2 664
3 696
4 241
8 559
57 214

93 222
142
5 233
1 441
43
5 108
267
3 611
72
2 492
3 629
4 359
8 827
57 997

94 347
145
5 340
1 371
46
5 173
281
3 804
77
2 385
3 500
4 491
8 860
58 874

96 318
149
5 419
1 346
48
5 244
297
4 158
80
2 306
3 416
4 623
9 029
60 203

99 205
153
5 550
1 341
49
5 365
320
4 470
83
2 252
3 324
4 883
9 380
62 036

Southern Europe
Albania................................................
Andorra ...............................................
Bosnia and Herzegovina .....................
Croatia.................................................
Gibraltar ..............................................
Greece .................................................
Holy See (19) ......................................
Italy .....................................................
Malta ...................................................
Montenegro .........................................
Portugal ...............................................
San Marino..........................................
Serbia (20) ...........................................
Slovenia...............................................
Spain (21) ............................................
TFYR Macedonia (22) ........................

108 332
1 215
6
2 661
3 850
20
7 566
1
46 367
312
399
8 417
13
6 732
1 473
28 070
1 230

117 371
1 611
13
3 180
4 045
22
8 333
1
49 519
313
467
8 883
15
7 583
1 580
30 413
1 392

126 764
2 136
24
3 564
4 169
25
8 793
1
53 325
304
519
8 684
19
8 173
1 670
33 792
1 568

137 668
2 671
37
3 914
4 377
27
9 643
1
56 221
327
576
9 786
21
8 946
1 832
37 495
1 795

140 702
2 957
47
4 122
4 471
27
9 934
1
56 772
349
576
9 962
23
9 272
1 883
38 476
1 828

142 408
3 289
53
4 308
4 517
27
10 161
1
56 832
368
609
9 925
24
9 569
1 927
38 889
1 909

143 616
3 141
65
3 332
4 669
27
10 672
1
56 968
387
643
10 125
26
10 204
1 966
39 427
1 963

145 147
3 072
65
3 694
4 506
27
10 987
1
56 986
397
633
10 336
27
10 134
1 985
40 288
2 009

150 228
3 142
78
3 781
4 442
29
11 183
0
58 671
409
627
10 544
30
9 856
2 002
43 395
2 038

155 171
3 204
85
3 760
4 403
29
11 359
0
60 551
417
631
10 676
32
9 856
2 030
46 077
2 061

Georgia (13) ........................................


Iraq ......................................................
Israel....................................................
Jordan..................................................
Kuwait.................................................
Lebanon...............................................
Occupied Palestinian Terr. (14) ...........
Oman...................................................
Qatar....................................................
Saudi Arabia........................................
Syrian Arab Rep..................................
Turkey .................................................
United Arab Emirates .........................
Yemen .................................................
Europe

162

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Population (thousands)
2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

4 225
36 977
8 061
6 797
3 087
4 385
4 648
3 059
2 033
30 538
22 184
77 003
8 374
27 980

4 080
42 684
8 666
7 366
3 394
4 516
5 317
3 290
2 199
33 535
24 079
80 753
9 174
32 232

3 760
55 257
9 816
8 415
4 012
4 701
6 755
3 603
2 371
38 481
27 859
86 665
10 489
41 342

3 456
68 950
10 955
9 289
4 633
4 749
8 230
3 749
2 524
42 183
30 921
90 302
11 518
51 256

3 186
83 357
12 029
9 882
5 164
4 678
9 727
3 740
2 612
44 938
33 051
91 617
12 152
61 577

2 958
97 895
12 961
10 192
5 559
4 508
11 153
3 611
2 597
46 291
34 464
90 800
12 172
71 418

2 754
111 941
13 763
10 249
5 845
4 270
12 412
3 430
2 507
46 214
35 016
88 478
11 738
80 334

2 577
124 854
14 435
10 104
6 072
4 015
13 468
3 249
2 388
45 291
34 701
85 426
11 242
88 002

2 452
136 098
14 957
9 830
6 259
3 788
14 286
3 052
2 275
44 013
33 785
82 227
10 831
94 243

2 367
145 276
15 312
9 495
6 371
3 612
14 868
2 839
2 162
42 427
32 623
79 200
10 357
99 032

742 067

744 177

741 233

731 826

719 257

702 347

686 745

677 700

674 657

674 796

292 236
9 441
7 252
10 634
9 903
38 357
3 453
21 240
142 229
5 506
44 222

289 165
9 282
7 001
10 741
9 825
38 375
3 358
20 970
141 022
5 545
43 047

279 544
8 883
6 455
10 798
9 644
37 835
3 147
20 291
136 429
5 547
40 515

267 987
8 438
5 935
10 676
9 415
36 372
2 905
19 458
131 280
5 406
38 100

256 946
8 001
5 459
10 638
9 243
34 906
2 661
18 535
126 188
5 241
36 074

245 566
7 579
4 986
10 558
9 073
33 554
2 478
17 430
120 761
5 059
34 086

234 992
7 218
4 592
10 360
8 868
31 874
2 303
16 345
116 248
4 827
32 357

227 653
6 970
4 336
10 260
8 735
30 459
2 143
15 568
113 330
4 643
31 210

223 891
6 831
4 198
10 298
8 696
29 810
2 026
15 111
111 785
4 561
30 576

221 966
6 760
4 131
10 324
8 672
29 454
1 958
14 839
111 057
4 516
30 254

Eastern Europe
Belarus ..............................................
Bulgaria.............................................
Czech Rep. ........................................
Hungary.............................................
Poland ...............................................
Rep. of Moldova (15) ........................
Romania ............................................
Russian Federation............................
Slovakia.............................................
Ukraine..............................................

101 892
155
5 647
1 337
50
5 450
339
4 732
85
2 210
3 252
5 054
9 647
63 935

104 524
156
5 736
1 329
51
5 526
358
4 968
86
2 169
3 190
5 230
9 924
65 802

109 254
157
5 885
1 296
53
5 619
390
5 356
87
2 073
3 068
5 574
10 379
69 314

112 162
155
5 938
1 258
55
5 619
414
5 707
86
1 977
2 931
5 841
10 656
71 525

114 036
152
5 920
1 233
55
5 611
431
6 038
85
1 902
2 813
6 063
10 916
72 817

115 225
149
5 910
1 201
55
5 636
444
6 274
83
1 823
2 705
6 269
11 138
73 538

116 168
148
5 926
1 167
56
5 674
454
6 455
82
1 739
2 592
6 461
11 316
74 097

117 210
149
5 954
1 150
56
5 723
463
6 658
81
1 685
2 508
6 652
11 511
74 620

118 276
152
5 986
1 146
56
5 781
472
6 870
81
1 663
2 471
6 823
11 692
75 082

119 439
156
6 032
1 145
55
5 842
480
7 046
81
1 650
2 453
6 964
11 859
75 676

Northern Europe
Channel Islands (16) .........................
Denmark............................................
Estonia...............................................
Faeroe Islands ...................................
Finland (17) .......................................
Iceland...............................................
Ireland ...............................................
Isle of Man ........................................
Latvia ................................................
Lithuania ...........................................
Norway (18) ......................................
Sweden..............................................
United Kingdom................................

157 446
3 258
92
3 716
4 361
29
11 492
0
61 241
423
634
10 702
33
9 807
2 053
47 532
2 073

158 478
3 294
98
3 647
4 311
29
11 569
0
61 290
428
636
10 623
33
9 718
2 066
48 661
2 073

158 548
3 290
112
3 473
4 185
29
11 621
0
60 851
431
633
10 309
34
9 479
2 059
49 998
2 043

157 554
3 179
125
3 237
4 024
28
11 661
0
60 182
424
621
9 918
34
9 177
2 029
50 938
1 976

155 227
2 990
137
2 952
3 859
28
11 647
0
59 158
415
604
9 379
34
8 797
1 994
51 354
1 881

149 816
2 762
146
2 665
3 699
27
11 476
0
57 399
407
583
8 676
34
8 369
1 946
49 857
1 770

143 862
2 502
153
2 391
3 550
26
11 277
0
55 768
399
559
7 994
33
7 924
1 898
47 738
1 649

139 935
2 230
158
2 152
3 435
26
11 189
0
55 137
391
535
7 447
33
7 516
1 868
46 280
1 537

137 874
2 007
161
1 982
3 361
25
11 162
0
55 161
389
515
7 045
32
7 195
1 856
45 532
1 451

136 856
1 863
162
1 877
3 317
25
11 109
0
55 619
394
499
6 754
32
6 956
1 846
45 011
1 391

Southern Europe
Albania..............................................
Andorra .............................................
Bosnia and Herzegovina ...................
Croatia...............................................
Gibraltar ............................................
Greece ...............................................
Holy See (19) ....................................
Italy ...................................................
Malta .................................................
Montenegro .......................................
Portugal .............................................
San Marino........................................
Serbia (20) .........................................
Slovenia.............................................
Spain (21) ..........................................
TFYR Macedonia (22) ......................

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

2100 Major area, region and country


Georgia (13) ......................................
Iraq ....................................................
Israel..................................................
Jordan................................................
Kuwait...............................................
Lebanon.............................................
Occupied Palestinian Terr. (14) .........
Oman.................................................
Qatar..................................................
Saudi Arabia......................................
Syrian Arab Rep................................
Turkey ...............................................
United Arab Emirates .......................
Yemen ...............................................
Europe

163

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Western Europe
Austria.................................................
Belgium...............................................
France..................................................
Germany..............................................
Liechtenstein .......................................
Luxembourg ........................................
Monaco ...............................................
Netherlands .........................................
Switzerland .........................................
Latin America and Caribbean

1950

1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

140 798
6 936
8 628
41 832
68 376
14
296
20
10 027
4 668

151 766
7 043
9 152
45 689
72 815
17
314
22
11 418
5 296

165 535
7 466
9 625
50 763
78 169
21
339
24
12 959
6 169

170 372
7 549
9 847
53 880
78 289
25
364
26
14 088
6 303

171 697
7 560
9 840
55 281
77 685
27
367
29
14 453
6 455

175 432
7 671
9 949
56 708
79 098
29
381
31
14 892
6 674

180 702
7 936
10 080
57 845
81 929
31
408
33
15 422
7 019

183 111
8 005
10 176
59 048
82 349
33
435
35
15 863
7 168

186 431
8 232
10 414
60 997
82 541
35
457
35
16 305
7 415

189 052
8 394
10 712
62 787
82 302
36
507
35
16 613
7 664

167 368

220 058

286 377

362 326

402 393

443 032

482 647

521 429

557 038

590 082

Caribbean
Anguilla...............................................
Antigua and Barbuda ..........................
Aruba...................................................
Bahamas..............................................
Barbados .............................................
British Virgin Islands ..........................
Cayman Islands...................................
Cuba ....................................................
Dominica.............................................
Dominican Rep. ..................................
Grenada ...............................................
Guadeloupe (23) ..................................
Haiti.....................................................
Jamaica................................................
Martinique...........................................
Montserrat ...........................................
Netherlands Antilles (24) ....................
Puerto Rico..........................................
St. Kitts and Nevis ..............................
St. Lucia ..............................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines...........
Trinidad and Tobago ...........................
Turks and Caicos Islands ....................
US Virgin Islands ................................

17 084
5
46
38
79
211
7
6
5 920
51
2 380
77
210
3 221
1 403
222
14
112
2 218
46
83
67
636
5
27

20 725
6
55
54
110
231
8
8
7 134
60
3 309
90
276
3 868
1 629
282
12
135
2 359
51
90
81
841
6
33

25 325
6
66
59
169
239
10
10
8 702
71
4 512
94
320
4 710
1 869
326
12
159
2 716
45
104
90
968
6
64

29 695
7
70
60
211
249
11
17
9 812
75
5 794
89
327
5 688
2 132
326
12
173
3 196
43
118
100
1 078
8
98

31 903
7
66
63
235
254
13
20
10 069
74
6 482
100
355
6 395
2 297
341
11
182
3 379
42
126
104
1 173
10
105

34 205
8
62
62
256
260
16
26
10 570
71
7 195
96
386
7 125
2 365
359
11
191
3 529
41
138
107
1 215
12
103

36 439
10
69
80
280
263
18
33
10 901
71
7 916
100
405
7 878
2 462
370
10
190
3 702
43
147
108
1 261
15
107

38 441
11
78
90
298
268
20
40
11 104
70
8 592
102
427
8 645
2 582
385
5
180
3 814
46
157
108
1 292
19
109

40 177
14
84
101
319
271
22
52
11 254
69
9 264
103
446
9 347
2 682
397
6
186
3 782
49
165
109
1 315
31
109

41 646
15
89
107
343
273
23
56
11 258
68
9 927
104
461
9 993
2 741
406
6
201
3 749
52
174
109
1 341
38
109

Central America
Belize ..................................................
Costa Rica ...........................................
El Salvador..........................................
Guatemala ...........................................
Honduras .............................................
Mexico ................................................
Nicaragua ............................................
Panama................................................

37 889
69
966
2 200
3 146
1 487
27 866
1 295
860

51 678
93
1 334
2 773
4 159
2 000
38 419
1 773
1 128

69 591
122
1 820
3 736
5 448
2 688
51 868
2 398
1 510

91 779
144
2 343
4 656
7 036
3 628
68 776
3 242
1 953

102 085
166
2 692
4 996
7 955
4 226
76 175
3 697
2 180

113 249
190
3 070
5 333
8 923
4 889
84 307
4 121
2 416

124 600
220
3 469
5 733
10 016
5 575
92 273
4 637
2 677

135 555
251
3 919
5 940
11 237
6 218
99 960
5 074
2 956

145 384
281
4 309
6 051
12 717
6 879
106 484
5 424
3 238

155 881
312
4 659
6 193
14 389
7 601
113 423
5 788
3 517

South America
Argentina.............................................
Bolivia.................................................
Brazil...................................................
Chile....................................................
Colombia.............................................
Ecuador ...............................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)................
French Guiana.....................................
Guyana ................................................
Paraguay..............................................
Peru .....................................................
Suriname .............................................

112 395
17 150
2 714
53 975
6 082
12 000
3 387
2
25
407
1 473
7 632
215

147 655
20 625
3 355
72 759
7 652
16 005
4 439
2
32
560
1 906
9 929
290

191 461
23 983
4 217
96 078
9 578
21 330
5 972
2
49
721
2 483
13 187
372

240 852
28 131
5 353
121 712
11 179
26 875
7 958
2
68
777
3 195
17 287
366

268 405
30 354
5 957
136 247
12 107
29 994
9 091
2
87
752
3 698
19 460
376

295 577
32 642
6 658
149 650
13 188
33 203
10 261
2
117
725
4 244
21 686
407

321 608
34 855
7 471
161 848
14 409
36 453
11 385
2
139
728
4 795
23 827
436

347 433
36 931
8 307
174 425
15 420
39 764
12 345
3
165
733
5 344
25 862
467

371 477
38 681
9 147
185 987
16 302
43 041
13 426
3
202
746
5 898
27 559
499

392 555
40 412
9 930
194 946
17 114
46 295
14 465
3
231
754
6 455
29 077
525

164

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Population (thousands)
2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

190 494
8 463
10 867
64 413
81 471
37
543
35
16 850
7 814

192 010
8 515
11 001
65 874
80 988
39
577
35
17 039
7 942

193 888
8 590
11 242
68 467
79 469
42
638
36
17 311
8 094

194 123
8 558
11 436
70 681
77 305
43
683
36
17 344
8 037

193 048
8 427
11 587
72 442
74 781
45
708
36
17 151
7 870

191 740
8 244
11 721
73 953
72 371
46
721
36
16 984
7 663

191 723
8 091
11 905
75 554
70 886
48
729
37
17 001
7 472

192 902
7 972
12 144
77 287
70 228
49
734
38
17 112
7 339

194 616
7 875
12 385
78 886
70 145
50
737
39
17 230
7 270

196 536
7 805
12 588
80 288
70 392
50
740
40
17 381
7 252

622 437

652 182

701 606

734 748

750 956

753 236

745 186

729 113

708 723

687 517

43 041
17
93
109
363
276
24
59
11 231
68
10 553
107
471
10 654
2 790
411
6
208
3 742
56
183
109
1 363
41
108

44 322
17
97
111
383
279
25
60
11 173
68
11 121
108
479
11 311
2 828
414
6
212
3 747
59
190
110
1 373
43
106

46 363
18
105
112
415
281
27
63
10 983
69
12 060
108
490
12 528
2 842
414
7
213
3 754
63
201
111
1 354
45
102

47 386
19
109
109
434
275
28
64
10 556
67
12 679
103
489
13 504
2 751
403
7
207
3 726
67
206
113
1 329
46
96

47 314
18
112
104
445
264
28
62
9 898
65
12 942
95
476
14 178
2 569
382
7
198
3 657
68
205
113
1 288
46
92

46 852
18
112
99
450
253
28
60
9 111
63
13 075
90
460
14 722
2 454
359
7
184
3 561
69
202
111
1 230
44
90

46 058
17
112
96
451
242
28
58
8 388
60
13 070
86
448
15 004
2 378
341
7
170
3 434
68
195
108
1 167
42
88

44 986
17
111
93
449
233
27
58
7 824
58
12 897
81
440
15 019
2 305
326
7
159
3 291
67
186
104
1 108
41
85

43 722
16
110
90
448
227
27
58
7 360
55
12 597
78
431
14 852
2 230
311
7
151
3 148
65
176
100
1 064
40
83

42 464
16
108
88
449
223
27
59
7 022
53
12 231
75
424
14 566
2 166
301
7
147
3 024
64
169
96
1 031
38
80

Caribbean
Anguilla.............................................
Antigua and Barbuda ........................
Aruba.................................................
Bahamas............................................
Barbados ...........................................
British Virgin Islands ........................
Cayman Islands.................................
Cuba ..................................................
Dominica...........................................
Dominican Rep. ................................
Grenada .............................................
Guadeloupe (23) ................................
Haiti...................................................
Jamaica..............................................
Martinique.........................................
Montserrat .........................................
Netherlands Antilles (24) ..................
Puerto Rico........................................
St. Kitts and Nevis ............................
St. Lucia ............................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.........
Trinidad and Tobago .........................
Turks and Caicos Islands ..................
US Virgin Islands ..............................

166 487
344
4 988
6 385
16 325
8 392
120 058
6 213
3 783

176 389
377
5 272
6 610
18 382
9 179
125 928
6 603
4 038

193 747
439
5 694
7 093
22 726
10 657
135 398
7 240
4 502

207 037
490
5 929
7 438
27 192
11 934
141 523
7 661
4 870

215 569
529
6 001
7 607
31 595
12 939
143 925
7 846
5 128

219 603
557
5 932
7 667
35 765
13 682
142 775
7 954
5 271

220 897
572
5 760
7 594
39 422
14 109
140 175
7 938
5 327

219 598
575
5 514
7 389
42 377
14 220
136 421
7 783
5 320

216 193
567
5 248
7 093
44 569
14 083
131 835
7 536
5 262

211 695
555
5 019
6 783
46 036
13 789
127 081
7 261
5 170

Central America
Belize ................................................
Costa Rica .........................................
El Salvador........................................
Guatemala .........................................
Honduras ...........................................
Mexico ..............................................
Nicaragua ..........................................
Panama..............................................

412 909
42 177
10 738
203 294
17 868
49 367
15 446
3
262
763
7 029
30 760
548

431 471
43 856
11 591
210 433
18 540
52 185
16 355
3
295
773
7 601
32 435
569

461 496
46 761
13 391
220 492
19 536
56 856
17 893
3
365
795
8 670
35 492
602

480 325
49 019
15 166
224 431
20 024
60 058
18 973
3
436
791
9 585
37 668
617

488 073
50 560
16 769
222 843
20 059
61 764
19 549
3
506
766
10 323
38 832
614

486 781
51 296
18 106
216 886
19 713
62 367
19 810
3
566
768
10 905
39 293
611

478 231
51 291
19 099
207 906
19 152
62 090
19 756
3
617
759
11 285
39 076
601

464 529
50 778
19 720
197 206
18 475
61 119
19 423
3
661
739
11 457
38 297
586

448 808
50 033
20 001
186 678
17 774
59 701
18 913
3
695
715
11 467
37 162
568

433 359
49 201
20 021
177 349
17 185
58 137
18 319
3
721
693
11 364
35 911
551

South America
Argentina...........................................
Bolivia...............................................
Brazil.................................................
Chile..................................................
Colombia...........................................
Ecuador .............................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)..............
French Guiana...................................
Guyana ..............................................
Paraguay............................................
Peru ...................................................
Suriname ...........................................

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

2100 Major area, region and country


Western Europe
Austria...............................................
Belgium.............................................
France................................................
Germany............................................
Liechtenstein .....................................
Luxembourg ......................................
Monaco .............................................
Netherlands .......................................
Switzerland .......................................
Latin America and Caribbean

165

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
Estimates: 1950-2010
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

1950

1960

1970

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Uruguay...............................................
Venezuela ............................................

2 239
5 094

2 538
7 562

2 809
10 681

2 915
15 036

3 011
17 269

3 109
19 685

3 223
22 035

3 319
24 348

3 323
26 664

3 369
28 980

Northern America
Bermuda..............................................
Canada.................................................
Greenland............................................
St. Pierre and Miquelon ......................
United States of America ....................

171 615
37
13 737
23
5
157 813

204 318
45
17 909
33
5
186 326

231 284
52
21 717
46
5
209 464

254 454
56
24 516
50
6
229 825

267 079
58
25 843
53
6
241 120

281 162
60
27 701
56
6
253 339

295 749
61
29 302
56
6
266 324

313 289
63
30 667
56
6
282 496

329 231
64
32 283
57
6
296 820

344 529
65
34 017
57
6
310 384

12 675

15 773

19 506

22 970

24 891

26 967

29 044

31 130

33 532

36 593

Australia/New Zealand
Australia (25) ......................................
New Zealand .......................................

10 085
8 177
1 908

12 658
10 286
2 372

15 548
12 728
2 820

17 857
14 710
3 147

19 081
15 812
3 269

20 494
17 096
3 398

21 793
18 118
3 675

23 022
19 164
3 858

24 538
20 404
4 134

26 637
22 268
4 368

Melanesia
Fiji .......................................................
New Caledonia....................................
Papua New Guinea..............................
Solomon Islands..................................
Vanuatu ...............................................

2 199
289
65
1 708
90
48

2 620
393
78
1 967
118
64

3 306
521
105
2 435
160
85

4 338
635
142
3 215
229
116

4 943
712
155
3 678
269
130

5 512
728
170
4 158
310
147

6 207
776
191
4 716
356
168

6 996
812
212
5 379
409
185

7 830
823
231
6 095
470
211

8 748
861
251
6 858
538
240

Micronesia
Guam...................................................
Kiribati ................................................
Marshall Islands ..................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) .................
Nauru...................................................
Northern Mariana Islands ...................
Palau....................................................

148
60
26
13
32
3
7
7

184
67
33
15
45
4
10
10

242
85
44
20
61
6
13
11

302
107
55
31
73
7
17
12

358
119
63
38
86
8
30
14

418
134
72
47
96
9
44
15

466
146
77
51
107
10
58
17

496
155
84
52
107
10
68
19

519
169
92
52
109
10
67
20

536
180
100
54
111
10
61
20

Polynesia (26)
American Samoa.................................
Cook Islands........................................
French Polynesia.................................
Niue.....................................................
Samoa..................................................
Tokelau................................................
Tonga...................................................
Tuvalu .................................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands ...................

242
19
15
61
5
82
2
47
5
7

311
20
18
79
5
110
2
62
6
9

409
27
21
111
5
142
2
84
7
9

474
33
18
151
3
155
2
93
8
11

508
39
18
174
3
157
2
94
9
14

543
47
18
195
2
161
2
95
9
14

578
53
18
216
2
168
2
96
9
14

615
58
18
238
2
177
2
98
9
14

645
63
19
255
2
180
1
101
10
14

673
68
20
271
1
183
1
104
10
14

Oceania

a
b

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and
Polynesia.
c
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
d Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
e
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
1 Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon.
2 Including Zanzibar.
3 Including Southern Sudan which voted in favor of independence, but was not an official UN Member State as of May 2011.
4 Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha.
5 Includes other non-specified areas.
6 For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China.
7 As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
8 As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
9 The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
10 Including Sabah and Sarawak.
11 Including Nagorno-Karabakh.
12 Including Northern-Cyprus.

166

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.9. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
estimates and medium variant, 1950-2100
2010-2100: Medium variant
Population (thousands)

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100 Major area, region and country

3 428
31 226

3 495
33 340

3 601
37 040

3 659
39 896

3 663
41 821

3 643
42 814

3 599
42 998

3 536
42 529

3 464
41 632

3 396
40 507

Uruguay.............................................
Venezuela ..........................................

359 638
66
35 624
57
6
323 885

374 394
66
37 163
57
6
337 102

401 657
67
39 850
55
6
361 680

425 467
66
41 882
53
6
383 460

446 862
65
43 642
50
6
403 101

466 270
64
45 101
48
6
421 050

484 690
64
46 271
46
6
438 302

501 289
64
47 206
44
6
453 968

515 233
65
47 906
42
6
467 215

526 428
65
48 290
41
6
478 026

Northern America
Bermuda............................................
Canada...............................................
Greenland..........................................
St. Pierre and Miquelon ....................
United States of America ..................

39 355

42 056

47 096

51 475

55 233

58 405

60 997

63 106

64 697

65 819

28 394
23 793
4 601

30 065
25 241
4 824

32 982
27 771
5 211

35 252
29 768
5 483

37 063
31 385
5 678

38 487
32 660
5 827

39 623
33 662
5 961

40 634
34 541
6 093

41 502
35 289
6 212

42 232
35 908
6 323

Australia/New Zealand
Australia (25) ....................................
New Zealand .....................................

9 691
896
270
7 645
610
270

10 660
923
287
8 464
684
303

12 670
958
314
10 185
841
371

14 690
992
333
11 919
1 005
442

16 585
1 017
344
13 549
1 163
513

18 271
1 032
348
15 008
1 305
578

19 672
1 037
348
16 224
1 426
637

20 735
1 033
344
17 150
1 522
685

21 444
1 022
339
17 770
1 590
723

21 832
1 005
334
18 113
1 630
751

Melanesia
Fiji .....................................................
New Caledonia..................................
Papua New Guinea............................
Solomon Islands................................
Vanuatu .............................................

570
191
107
59
114
11
66
21

602
202
116
62
119
11
71
22

661
222
132
67
129
11
76
25

703
236
145
73
136
11
76
26

726
245
156
75
139
11
73
28

751
252
164
79
149
11
68
28

766
256
168
83
157
11
62
29

769
257
169
86
160
10
57
29

764
255
167
88
161
10
53
28

755
252
164
88
161
10
50
28

Micronesia
Guam.................................................
Kiribati ..............................................
Marshall Islands ................................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) ...............
Nauru.................................................
Northern Mariana Islands .................
Palau..................................................

700
74
21
285
1
188
1
106
10
13

728
81
21
298
1
191
1
111
10
13

783
95
22
318
1
200
1
121
11
13

830
108
23
328
1
213
1
131
12
13

859
120
24
330
1
219
1
138
13
13

897
132
24
326
1
236
1
149
14
12

937
142
23
317
1
260
2
164
16
12

968
149
23
305
1
282
2
176
18
12

987
154
22
293
1
299
2
186
19
11

1 001
158
21
281
1
313
2
193
20
11

Polynesia (26)
American Samoa...............................
Cook Islands......................................
French Polynesia...............................
Niue...................................................
Samoa................................................
Tokelau..............................................
Tonga.................................................
Tuvalu ...............................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands .................

Oceania

Including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.


Including East Jerusalem.
Including Transnistria.
Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.
Including land Islands.
Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.
Refers to the Vatican City State.
Including Kosovo.
Including Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla.
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Including Saint-Barthlemy and Saint-Martin (French part).
Refers to Curaao, Sint Maarten (Dutch part), Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius.
Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and Norfolk Island.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

167

Table A.10. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country:
high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)
Africa

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

6 895 889 7 350 953 7 832 370 8 776 486 9 679 064 10 614 318 11 546 322 12 498 658 13 525 786 14 630 726 15 804 873
1 235 900 1 266 530 1 299 737
5 659 989 6 084 422 6 532 633
832 330
938 720 1 058 102
4 827 660 5 145 702 5 474 531

1 359 746 1 411 555


7 416 740 8 267 509
1 322 727 1 617 641
6 094 013 6 649 869

1 478 333
9 135 985
1 951 801
7 184 184

1 555 196
9 991 126
2 312 909
7 678 216

1 641 501
10 857 157
2 696 099
8 161 058

1 753 661 1 889 510 2 037 371


11 772 125 12 741 216 13 767 503
3 101 031 3 521 211 3 954 217
8 671 094 9 220 005 9 813 286

4 287 841 4 670 339 5 080 402 5 915 463 6 751 340 7 622 453 8 489 178 9 358 709 10 256 573 11 183 728 12 142 392
856 327

975 299

1 111 208 1 420 704 1 782 155 2 204 177 2 670 938 3 176 503 3 715 951 4 275 705 4 849 323

1 022 234 1 155 067 1 305 420 1 641 422 2 025 831 2 469 755 2 955 291 3 476 382 4 031 276 4 607 712 5 198 432

Eastern Africa
Burundi .....................................
Comoros....................................
Djibouti .....................................
Eritrea........................................
Ethiopia .....................................
Kenya ........................................
Madagascar ...............................
Malawi ......................................
Mauritius (1) .............................
Mayotte .....................................
Mozambique .............................
Runion .....................................
Rwanda .....................................
Seychelles .................................
Somalia .....................................
Uganda ......................................
UR Tanzania (2) .......................
Zambia ......................................
Zimbabwe .................................

324 044
8 383
735
889
5 254
82 950
40 513
20 714
14 901
1 299
204
23 391
846
10 624
87
9 331
33 425
44 841
13 089
12 571

372 196
9 311
839
984
6 132
92 787
46 736
24 057
17 659
1 347
240
26 378
901
12 396
89
10 681
39 420
52 735
15 360
14 145

427 460
10 280
952
1 090
7 000
103 324
53 693
27 958
21 072
1 395
276
29 788
957
14 322
92
12 447
46 312
62 293
18 253
15 956

553 402
12 055
1 217
1 331
8 834
125 327
69 295
37 168
29 411
1 477
360
37 772
1 062
18 392
98
17 008
62 644
85 664
25 525
18 762

702 239
13 783
1 541
1 573
10 899
146 063
87 951
47 940
40 534
1 532
458
46 797
1 154
23 268
102
23 063
82 424
116 161
35 698
21 297

878 820 1 076 406 1 294 279 1 531 000 1 781 769 2 045 083
15 607
17 207
18 650
20 065
21 404
22 698
1 911
2 346
2 829
3 339
3 865
4 395
1 837
2 076
2 301
2 526
2 741
2 946
13 090
15 230
17 361
19 437
21 380
23 223
166 036
184 442
200 003
213 459
225 412
236 594
109 699
133 323
158 587
184 904
211 431
237 631
60 605
74 724
89 982
106 100
122 535
139 061
55 207
72 889
94 225
119 106
147 154
178 363
1 575
1 619
1 670
1 735
1 820
1 926
558
658
757
852
941
1 021
56 982
68 095
79 658
91 562
103 497
115 363
1 238
1 323
1 410
1 503
1 603
1 710
29 074
35 084
41 514
48 192
54 630
60 850
105
107
110
114
119
125
30 992
40 860
52 658
66 381
81 696
98 259
105 617
131 450
159 254
188 229
217 417
246 361
154 836
200 707
254 001
314 003
379 357
448 955
49 841
67 809
90 652
118 658
151 717
190 158
24 009
26 455
28 654
30 835
33 051
35 444

Middle Africa
Angola.......................................
Cameroon..................................
Central African Rep. .................
Chad ..........................................
Congo........................................
DR Congo .................................
Equatorial Guinea .....................
Gabon........................................
Sao Tome and Principe .............

126 689
19 082
19 599
4 401
11 227
4 043
65 966
700
1 505
165

144 777
22 018
22 005
4 894
12 874
4 546
75 775
808
1 672
184

164 934
25 285
24 640
5 455
14 741
5 108
86 716
922
1 862
205

209 830
32 367
30 326
6 693
19 276
6 482
111 016
1 153
2 268
248

259 481
39 935
36 699
8 040
24 534
8 103
137 769
1 404
2 702
295

313 955
47 971
43 744
9 529
30 494
9 965
167 040
1 683
3 186
343

370 631
56 099
51 130
11 036
36 904
12 003
197 412
1 965
3 690
391

427 738
63 972
58 720
12 519
43 559
14 204
227 872
2 250
4 206
437

484 241
71 493
66 411
13 983
50 320
16 515
257 771
2 537
4 730
480

538 954
78 513
74 053
15 402
56 987
18 863
286 537
2 816
5 263
521

591 582
85 086
81 591
16 765
63 463
21 206
314 024
3 088
5 801
559

Northern Africa
Algeria.......................................
Egypt .........................................
Libya .........................................
Morocco ....................................
Sudan (3) ..................................
Tunisia.......................................
Western Sahara..........................

209 459
35 468
81 121
6 355
31 951
43 552
10 481
531

229 246
38 355
89 053
6 678
33 911
49 478
11 140
630

250 281
41 244
97 158
7 270
35 986
56 069
11 819
735

290 987
46 119
112 734
8 247
39 819
70 269
12 949
850

329 378
49 853
127 472
9 151
42 566
85 702
13 695
939

368 239
53 340
141 809
10 015
44 953
102 662
14 438
1 023

404 812
55 901
154 621
10 668
47 015
120 459
15 056
1 093

438 091
57 650
166 109
11 166
48 398
138 212
15 411
1 144

471 164
59 773
176 918
11 701
49 819
155 840
15 912
1 201

504 844
62 435
187 620
12 227
51 752
172 836
16 709
1 265

538 125
65 288
198 425
12 705
53 839
189 015
17 530
1 323

Southern Africa
Botswana...................................
Lesotho......................................
Namibia.....................................
South Africa ..............................
Swaziland..................................

57 780
2 007
2 171
2 283
50 133
1 186

60 185
2 137
2 309
2 507
51 949
1 282

62 774
2 265
2 458
2 738
53 937
1 376

68 286
2 499
2 736
3 228
58 264
1 559

73 449
2 709
3 000
3 687
62 303
1 750

79 083
2 939
3 290
4 146
66 736
1 972

84 835
3 158
3 563
4 574
71 349
2 190

90 710
3 371
3 833
4 945
76 164
2 397

96 827
3 604
4 126
5 284
81 216
2 596

103 071
3 855
4 450
5 602
86 376
2 789

109 746
4 124
4 823
5 905
91 905
2 989

Western Africa
Benin .........................................
Burkina Faso .............................
Cape Verde ................................

304 261
8 850
16 469
496

348 664
10 210
19 265
525

399 972
11 753
22 565
559

518 918
15 329
30 387
626

661 283
19 516
40 052
684

168

829 657 1 018 607 1 225 563 1 448 043 1 679 074 1 913 896
24 340
29 646
35 301
41 169
47 051
52 822
51 832
65 435
80 780
97 692
115 607
134 103
736
777
809
836
867
906

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.10. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Cte d'Ivoire..............................
Gambia......................................
Ghana ........................................
Guinea .......................................
Guinea-Bissau ...........................
Liberia .......................................
Mali ...........................................
Mauritania .................................
Niger .........................................
Nigeria.......................................
St. Helena (4) ............................
Senegal......................................
Sierra Leone ..............................
Togo ..........................................
Asia (5)

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

19 738
1 728
24 392
9 982
1 515
3 994
15 370
3 460
15 512
158 423
4
12 434
5 868
6 028

22 202
1 993
27 548
11 407
1 695
4 595
17 952
3 901
18 630
181 157
4
14 282
6 566
6 733

25 032
2 290
30 975
13 018
1 900
5 269
20 913
4 386
22 449
207 688
4
16 340
7 324
7 506

31 394
2 963
38 427
16 707
2 369
6 846
27 951
5 457
32 078
269 266
4
20 990
8 965
9 159

38 372
3 718
46 603
20 953
2 915
8 707
36 576
6 649
44 741
343 878
5
26 326
10 720
10 868

46 056
4 557
55 488
25 782
3 561
10 833
46 794
7 972
60 956
433 229
5
32 298
12 553
12 665

53 999
5 445
64 601
31 012
4 291
13 186
58 357
9 385
80 670
534 273
5
38 673
14 416
14 437

61 825
6 350
73 742
36 486
5 095
15 729
71 117
10 858
103 711
646 078
5
45 300
16 256
16 120

69 544
7 257
82 817
42 079
5 977
18 406
84 773
12 371
129 774
767 533
5
52 014
18 049
17 747

4 164 252 4 416 790 4 673 808 5 142 515 5 537 614 5 898 284

2090

2100

77 042
84 268
8 141
8 989
91 584
99 948
47 608
52 964
6 917
7 900
21 131
23 848
98 838
112 982
13 875
15 343
158 144
188 143
894 601 1 024 518
5
6
58 601
64 973
19 767
21 418
19 295
20 765

6 211 109 6 501 293 6 807 706 7 145 770 7 521 997

Eastern Asia (5)


China (6) ...................................
China, Hong Kong SAR (7) .....
China, Macao SAR (8) .............
DPR Korea ................................
Japan .........................................
Mongolia ...................................
Rep. of Korea ............................

1 573 970 1 618 720 1 659 422 1 711 143 1 725 358 1 723 057 1 713 827 1 713 562 1 737 913 1 791 927 1 874 267
1 341 335 1 382 444 1 419 761 1 467 433 1 481 942 1 479 310 1 467 737 1 464 195 1 480 767 1 521 329 1 586 939
7 053
7 501
7 982
8 919
9 622
10 353
11 133
11 847
12 652
13 693
14 834
544
607
671
781
859
921
972
1 011
1 057
1 123
1 206
24 346
25 068
25 931
27 677
28 898
30 336
31 927
33 485
35 527
37 818
40 233
126 536
127 010
127 100
125 560
122 775
121 476
121 958
123 002
126 559
133 361
141 749
2 756
3 007
3 270
3 729
4 176
4 697
5 169
5 665
6 260
6 899
7 598
48 184
49 551
50 890
52 900
53 340
53 017
52 826
52 961
54 015
56 362
59 577

South-Central Asia (9)

1 764 872 1 908 934 2 058 604 2 345 672 2 607 365 2 853 881 3 066 754 3 253 478 3 428 122 3 598 416 3 772 645

Central Asia
Kazakhstan................................
Kyrgyzstan ................................
Tajikistan...................................
Turkmenistan ............................
Uzbekistan.................................
Southern Asia
Afghanistan ...............................
Bangladesh................................
Bhutan .......................................
India ..........................................
Iran ............................................
Maldives....................................
Nepal .........................................
Pakistan .....................................
Sri Lanka...................................

60 726
16 026
5 334
6 879
5 042
27 445

65 004
17 053
5 687
7 474
5 421
29 369

69 878
18 110
6 172
8 165
5 826
31 605

78 578
19 917
7 065
9 570
6 549
35 477

86 269
21 893
7 998
10 921
7 124
38 333

94 362
24 313
8 996
12 411
7 671
40 970

101 450
26 616
9 979
13 816
8 114
42 926

108 135
29 232
11 061
15 102
8 457
44 283

115 412
32 302
12 235
16 359
8 800
45 716

122 985
35 491
13 536
17 529
9 148
47 281

131 151
38 907
14 980
18 678
9 505
49 082

1 704 146 1 843 930 1 988 727 2 267 094 2 521 097 2 759 519 2 965 304 3 145 343 3 312 710 3 475 430 3 641 494
31 412
36 992
42 891
55 607
69 532
84 826
100 775
116 465
131 626
145 803
158 738
148 692
159 976
171 698
193 494
211 307
226 325
237 708
246 619
254 868
263 917
275 080
726
792
850
955
1 040
1 114
1 169
1 208
1 244
1 287
1 340
1 224 614 1 320 769 1 420 342 1 612 029 1 788 097 1 952 664 2 096 026 2 223 492 2 341 556 2 455 132 2 569 745
73 974
78 855
83 433
89 908
94 747
98 932
100 473
100 728
101 723
104 553
109 195
316
341
367
410
441
470
488
495
499
506
521
29 959
32 919
36 104
42 554
48 515
54 213
59 312
63 791
67 866
71 748
75 819
173 593
191 378
210 189
247 779
281 781
314 272
341 769
363 895
383 325
400 837
417 464
20 860
21 909
22 852
24 358
25 638
26 703
27 585
28 650
30 004
31 647
33 590

South-Eastern Asia
Brunei Darussalam....................
Cambodia ..................................
Indonesia ...................................
Lao PDR....................................
Malaysia (10) ............................
Myanmar ...................................
Philippines.................................
Singapore ..................................
Thailand ....................................
Timor-Leste...............................
Viet Nam ...................................

593 415
399
14 138
239 871
6 201
28 401
47 963
93 261
5 086
69 122
1 124
87 848

631 974
438
15 168
254 406
6 694
30 996
50 401
102 375
5 421
71 523
1 310
93 242

671 966
478
16 312
269 148
7 229
33 750
53 003
112 367
5 714
73 748
1 537
98 680

747 812
555
18 463
296 485
8 257
39 347
57 674
133 668
6 276
77 401
2 080
107 606

812 945
626
20 253
319 282
9 048
44 434
60 824
155 360
6 612
79 744
2 673
114 089

872 811
694
21 964
338 518
9 736
49 313
63 608
177 841
6 811
81 431
3 351
119 545

926 137
758
23 402
354 342
10 304
54 152
66 169
199 844
7 048
82 978
4 079
123 063

974 927 1 025 661 1 081 125 1 141 696


821
889
962
1 044
24 510
25 544
26 629
27 811
368 654
384 061
401 717
421 748
10 704
11 053
11 432
11 892
58 651
62 996
67 392
71 777
68 172
70 576
73 820
77 378
220 698
240 543
259 431
277 556
7 284
7 556
7 985
8 506
84 952
87 951
91 952
96 941
4 789
5 489
6 164
6 788
125 693
129 003
133 641
140 254

Western Asia
Armenia.....................................
Azerbaijan (11) .........................
Bahrain......................................
Cyprus (12) ...............................

231 995
3 092
9 188
1 262
1 104

257 162
3 165
9 853
1 416
1 176

283 816
3 226
10 488
1 539
1 247

337 888
3 284
11 386
1 729
1 374

391 946
3 336
12 307
1 892
1 461

448 535
3 398
13 274
2 021
1 530

504 390
3 450
14 121
2 084
1 590

559 326
3 531
15 172
2 138
1 637

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

616 009
3 644
16 355
2 233
1 700

674 302
3 805
17 743
2 354
1 788

733 390
4 031
19 353
2 475
1 897

169

Table A.10. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

4 352
31 672
7 418
6 187
2 737
4 228
4 039
2 782
1 759
27 448
20 411
72 752
7 512
24 053

4 264
37 288
8 129
6 862
3 115
4 429
4 688
3 087
2 043
30 827
22 390
77 771
8 445
28 213

4 175
43 578
8 846
7 546
3 469
4 632
5 434
3 367
2 224
34 353
24 661
82 763
9 356
32 912

3 967
58 005
10 295
8 917
4 213
4 989
7 112
3 803
2 436
40 702
29 535
91 772
10 941
43 428

3 789
74 531
11 831
10 195
5 006
5 224
8 930
4 091
2 645
46 083
33 934
98 920
12 296
55 474

3 696
93 533
13 511
11 350
5 786
5 413
10 981
4 270
2 810
51 271
37 909
105 159
13 398
69 227

3 664
114 493
15 218
12 337
6 505
5 546
13 151
4 360
2 886
55 499
41 596
110 188
13 972
83 730

3 683
136 932
16 953
13 164
7 193
5 642
15 344
4 427
2 909
58 682
44 708
114 394
14 192
98 624

3 770
160 563
18 774
13 910
7 915
5 781
17 565
4 533
2 921
61 640
47 375
119 064
14 484
113 782

3 926
184 713
20 628
14 623
8 686
5 984
19 740
4 651
2 957
64 652
49 814
124 420
14 957
128 862

4 137
208 786
22 475
15 339
9 463
6 257
21 848
4 771
3 011
67 671
52 236
130 400
15 459
143 780

738 199

748 362

759 920

778 206

791 813

814 017

839 816

871 610

920 546

984 394 1 056 358

Eastern Europe
Belarus ......................................
Bulgaria.....................................
Czech Rep. ................................
Hungary.....................................
Poland .......................................
Rep. of Moldova (15) ................
Romania ....................................
Russian Federation....................
Slovakia.....................................
Ukraine......................................

294 771
9 595
7 494
10 493
9 984
38 277
3 573
21 486
142 958
5 462
45 448

294 978
9 530
7 311
10 729
9 990
38 723
3 489
21 430
143 588
5 559
44 629

295 891
9 500
7 143
10 979
10 043
39 296
3 445
21 435
144 334
5 679
44 038

294 537
9 366
6 769
11 346
10 157
39 933
3 335
21 336
143 742
5 856
42 697

291 971
9 213
6 442
11 531
10 218
39 522
3 204
21 140
143 228
5 873
41 601

294 849
9 229
6 260
11 984
10 482
39 748
3 122
21 180
145 257
5 958
41 628

299 514
9 316
6 115
12 533
10 881
40 572
3 111
21 178
147 784
6 101
41 923

306 805
9 529
6 094
12 989
11 270
41 024
3 132
21 334
152 461
6 193
42 779

321 411
9 991
6 296
13 704
11 846
42 209
3 205
22 080
160 854
6 400
44 827

341 846
10 613
6 651
14 721
12 656
44 705
3 331
23 291
171 476
6 792
47 610

365 572
11 356
7 111
15 757
13 508
47 444
3 520
24 791
183 928
7 219
50 938

Northern Europe
Channel Islands (16) .................
Denmark....................................
Estonia.......................................
Faeroe Islands ...........................
Finland (17) ...............................
Iceland.......................................
Ireland .......................................
Isle of Man ................................
Latvia ........................................
Lithuania ...................................
Norway (18) ..............................
Sweden......................................
United Kingdom........................

99 205
153
5 550
1 341
49
5 365
320
4 470
83
2 252
3 324
4 883
9 380
62 036

102 706
156
5 689
1 349
50
5 491
342
4 774
85
2 230
3 281
5 094
9 721
64 444

106 651
159
5 845
1 359
52
5 632
365
5 077
88
2 219
3 265
5 333
10 119
67 138

114 656
164
6 172
1 363
56
5 885
410
5 621
91
2 185
3 241
5 843
10 876
72 749

121 210
167
6 414
1 364
59
6 055
447
6 157
93
2 148
3 194
6 295
11 477
77 341

128 440
170
6 672
1 403
62
6 308
484
6 764
96
2 174
3 224
6 794
12 244
82 045

136 602
176
7 029
1 447
65
6 672
524
7 357
99
2 213
3 301
7 369
13 122
87 230

145 356
184
7 450
1 494
70
7 083
564
7 948
103
2 250
3 371
7 977
14 024
92 838

155 858
197
7 966
1 580
74
7 594
610
8 656
110
2 352
3 518
8 681
15 128
99 393

168 217
214
8 584
1 694
79
8 206
663
9 468
118
2 508
3 752
9 472
16 397
107 063

181 696
233
9 265
1 813
84
8 864
720
10 307
127
2 670
3 999
10 296
17 741
115 575

Southern Europe
Albania......................................
Andorra .....................................
Bosnia and Herzegovina ...........
Croatia.......................................
Gibraltar ....................................
Greece .......................................
Holy See (19) ............................
Italy ...........................................
Malta .........................................
Montenegro ...............................
Portugal .....................................
San Marino................................
Serbia (20) .................................
Slovenia.....................................
Spain (21) ..................................
TFYR Macedonia (22) ..............

155 171
3 204
85
3 760
4 403
29
11 359
0
60 551
417
631
10 676
32
9 856
2 030
46 077
2 061

158 739
3 292
93
3 749
4 397
30
11 586
0
61 706
427
640
10 790
33
9 892
2 070
47 943
2 092

161 654
3 380
101
3 730
4 401
30
11 799
0
62 435
437
651
10 841
34
9 932
2 108
49 654
2 121

165 941
3 496
117
3 660
4 395
31
12 159
0
63 549
453
668
10 814
35
9 990
2 157
52 263
2 153

169 509
3 500
134
3 525
4 364
31
12 539
0
64 525
461
678
10 715
37
10 009
2 184
54 657
2 151

173 943
3 473
151
3 385
4 396
31
13 041
1
65 918
471
691
10 584
38
10 085
2 239
57 285
2 152

176 841
3 432
168
3 265
4 470
32
13 507
1
67 263
487
707
10 381
40
10 192
2 303
58 443
2 149

180 048
3 367
184
3 168
4 583
33
14 019
1
69 032
506
724
10 234
41
10 342
2 375
59 290
2 149

187 315
3 327
199
3 141
4 791
35
14 811
1
72 511
530
748
10 318
43
10 643
2 498
61 537
2 183

198 215
3 354
216
3 202
5 079
37
15 803
1
77 442
564
782
10 638
46
11 100
2 661
65 036
2 254

211 079
3 461
230
3 331
5 422
39
16 840
1
83 205
610
822
11 098
49
11 678
2 837
69 095
2 360

Georgia (13) ..............................


Iraq ............................................
Israel..........................................
Jordan........................................
Kuwait.......................................
Lebanon.....................................
Occupied Palestinian Terr. (14) .
Oman.........................................
Qatar..........................................
Saudi Arabia..............................
Syrian Arab Rep........................
Turkey .......................................
United Arab Emirates ...............
Yemen .......................................
Europe

170

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.10. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Western Europe
Austria.......................................
Belgium.....................................
France........................................
Germany....................................
Liechtenstein .............................
Luxembourg ..............................
Monaco .....................................
Netherlands ...............................
Switzerland ...............................
Latin America and Caribbean

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

189 052
8 394
10 712
62 787
82 302
36
507
35
16 613
7 664

191 939
8 530
10 950
64 908
82 077
38
548
36
16 975
7 877

195 723
8 689
11 215
67 158
82 533
40
589
36
17 361
8 103

203 071
9 019
11 776
71 711
83 195
43
670
37
18 129
8 490

209 124
9 240
12 319
76 150
83 239
47
738
39
18 691
8 662

216 785
9 478
12 989
81 273
84 084
50
794
40
19 247
8 829

226 859
9 774
13 812
87 141
86 021
54
849
43
20 092
9 073

239 402
10 139
14 764
93 693
89 203
58
905
46
21 235
9 359

255 961
10 640
15 935
101 554
94 291
63
966
50
22 670
9 791

276 116
11 285
17 305
110 472
101 085
69
1 038
54
24 394
10 415

298 011
12 006
18 737
119 947
108 629
74
1 115
59
26 306
11 138

975 797 1 030 032 1 088 553 1 153 538

590 082

628 520

668 251

743 496

809 187

868 827

923 042

Caribbean
Anguilla.....................................
Antigua and Barbuda ................
Aruba.........................................
Bahamas....................................
Barbados ...................................
British Virgin Islands ................
Cayman Islands.........................
Cuba ..........................................
Dominica...................................
Dominican Rep. ........................
Grenada .....................................
Guadeloupe (23) ........................
Haiti...........................................
Jamaica......................................
Martinique.................................
Montserrat .................................
Netherlands Antilles (24) ..........
Puerto Rico................................
St. Kitts and Nevis ....................
St. Lucia ....................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Trinidad and Tobago .................
Turks and Caicos Islands ..........
US Virgin Islands ......................

41 646
15
89
107
343
273
23
56
11 258
68
9 927
104
461
9 993
2 741
406
6
201
3 749
52
174
109
1 341
38
109

43 435
17
94
110
367
279
25
59
11 323
68
10 658
108
475
10 753
2 817
414
6
210
3 776
56
185
110
1 377
41
109

45 358
18
100
113
392
285
26
62
11 406
70
11 400
111
489
11 582
2 899
422
7
216
3 834
60
196
112
1 408
44
108

49 031
19
111
118
438
295
29
66
11 540
73
12 803
115
515
13 271
3 021
434
7
223
3 966
67
214
118
1 435
47
107

52 076
20
120
118
474
299
30
69
11 484
74
14 050
114
530
14 836
3 057
437
8
224
4 088
73
227
125
1 463
51
105

54 739
21
129
119
506
301
32
70
11 329
75
15 148
113
540
16 316
3 047
434
8
224
4 222
78
239
132
1 498
53
105

57 523
22
137
121
538
305
33
72
11 129
78
16 268
114
554
17 845
3 126
433
8
221
4 362
83
249
138
1 524
54
109

60 500
22
146
125
569
313
35
74
11 087
80
17 424
118
574
19 262
3 276
439
9
219
4 510
88
258
144
1 560
56
113

63 766
23
155
131
603
325
37
79
11 317
83
18 576
122
604
20 570
3 462
452
9
224
4 688
92
267
151
1 616
58
117

67 324
25
166
138
644
342
40
85
11 740
87
19 756
128
640
21 831
3 671
470
10
232
4 904
98
279
158
1 696
62
123

71 268
26
177
147
690
365
42
93
12 369
92
21 004
136
681
23 050
3 916
495
11
246
5 173
104
292
167
1 798
65
129

Central America
Belize ........................................
Costa Rica .................................
El Salvador................................
Guatemala .................................
Honduras ...................................
Mexico ......................................
Nicaragua ..................................
Panama......................................

155 881
312
4 659
6 193
14 389
7 601
113 423
5 788
3 517

168 143
347
5 038
6 455
16 478
8 475
121 250
6 280
3 819

180 804
387
5 405
6 799
18 816
9 410
129 072
6 782
4 133

205 468
467
6 032
7 581
24 014
11 300
143 600
7 716
4 758

228 154
541
6 515
8 291
29 766
13 135
156 042
8 521
5 344

249 404
613
6 915
8 934
36 104
14 907
166 825
9 201
5 906

268 745
680
7 233
9 543
42 833
16 587
175 558
9 892
6 418

288 119
741
7 512
10 099
49 711
18 116
184 474
10 549
6 917

307 913
798
7 790
10 606
56 570
19 492
194 070
11 155
7 432

328 296
851
8 114
11 095
63 307
20 767
204 441
11 753
7 967

349 928
906
8 533
11 631
69 897
22 004
216 033
12 386
8 538

South America
Argentina...................................
Bolivia.......................................
Brazil.........................................
Chile..........................................
Colombia...................................
Ecuador .....................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)......
French Guiana...........................
Guyana ......................................
Paraguay....................................
Peru ...........................................
Suriname ...................................

392 555
40 412
9 930
194 946
17 114
46 295
14 465
3
231
754
6 455
29 077
525

416 942
42 570
10 837
205 319
18 034
49 849
15 598
3
264
770
7 097
31 057
553

442 089
44 889
11 862
215 711
18 975
53 467
16 759
3
302
793
7 787
33 225
582

488 996
49 430
14 156
233 891
20 638
60 232
18 970
3
385
846
9 182
37 587
637

528 957
53 728
16 618
247 840
21 915
66 089
20 922
3
472
876
10 528
41 334
677

564 684
58 092
19 208
259 173
23 016
71 341
22 649
3
570
897
11 874
44 573
709

596 774
62 267
21 795
268 337
23 956
76 195
24 284
4
668
956
13 207
47 551
747

627 177
66 281
24 296
276 960
24 879
80 899
25 833
4
764
1 009
14 476
50 202
784

658 354
70 483
26 689
286 382
25 934
85 696
27 341
4
864
1 061
15 681
52 689
823

692 934
75 060
28 979
298 320
27 182
90 761
28 898
4
966
1 118
16 850
55 192
866

732 342
80 044
31 194
313 551
28 713
96 274
30 556
5
1 068
1 181
18 006
57 821
912

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

171

Table A.10. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
high variant, 2010-2100
High variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Uruguay.....................................
Venezuela ..................................

3 369
28 980

3 458
31 533

3 572
34 160

3 801
39 238

4 008
43 944

4 214
48 363

4 439
52 367

4 683
56 108

4 956
59 749

5 264
63 474

5 612
67 407

Northern America
Bermuda....................................
Canada.......................................
Greenland..................................
St. Pierre and Miquelon ............
United States of America ..........

344 529
65
34 017
57
6
310 384

362 528
66
35 913
58
6
326 485

382 024
67
37 925
58
6
343 966

421 374
70
41 789
58
6
379 451

458 975
71
45 087
58
7
413 753

501 324
73
48 791
58
7
452 395

548 248
77
52 796
60
7
495 309

598 064
81
56 785
62
8
541 127

653 580
87
61 218
65
8
592 202

714 146
94
66 114
69
9
647 861

776 793
102
71 045
74
10
705 563

36 593

39 687

42 948

49 474

55 644

62 111

68 816

75 512

82 646

90 151

97 754

Australia/New Zealand
Australia (25) ............................
New Zealand .............................

26 637
22 268
4 368

28 631
23 992
4 638

30 693
25 770
4 923

34 607
29 139
5 468

37 991
32 077
5 914

41 516
35 139
6 376

45 173
38 298
6 876

48 825
41 424
7 401

52 976
44 955
8 021

57 609
48 885
8 724

62 470
52 997
9 473

Melanesia
Fiji .............................................
New Caledonia..........................
Papua New Guinea....................
Solomon Islands........................
Vanuatu .....................................

8 748
861
251
6 858
538
240

9 776
905
273
7 711
615
273

10 894
945
294
8 648
699
309

13 343
1 014
332
10 722
884
391

15 979
1 090
363
12 956
1 090
480

18 781
1 172
390
15 330
1 310
578

21 655
1 256
416
17 766
1 536
681

24 514
1 340
439
20 188
1 761
787

27 310
1 426
463
22 548
1 981
892

29 994
1 515
488
24 802
2 192
997

32 542
1 603
516
26 934
2 390
1 099

Micronesia
Guam.........................................
Kiribati ......................................
Marshall Islands ........................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) .......
Nauru.........................................
Northern Mariana Islands .........
Palau..........................................

536
180
100
54
111
10
61
20

575
193
108
59
115
11
67
21

616
206
119
63
121
11
72
23

698
234
140
71
136
12
80
26

767
258
159
79
148
12
83
29

829
282
177
85
159
12
83
31

904
306
196
93
180
13
82
34

976
331
213
104
199
14
81
36

1 046
356
227
114
215
14
81
38

1 116
382
242
124
231
15
82
40

1 188
409
255
133
247
16
85
43

Polynesia (26)
American Samoa.......................
Cook Islands..............................
French Polynesia.......................
Niue...........................................
Samoa........................................
Tokelau......................................
Tonga.........................................
Tuvalu .......................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands .........

673
68
20
271
1
183
1
104
10
14

706
75
21
288
1
189
1
107
10
13

744
82
22
306
1
195
1
113
10
13

826
100
24
337
1
211
1
127
12
14

907
118
25
360
1
232
1
142
13
14

985
137
27
381
1
250
2
157
15
15

1 084
158
29
399
1
284
2
178
18
15

1 197
178
30
416
1
328
2
205
21
16

1 314
199
32
434
2
374
2
232
24
16

1 432
219
33
454
2
419
3
259
27
17

1 553
239
35
477
2
464
3
286
30
18

Oceania

a
b
c
d
e
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

172

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon.
Including Zanzibar.
Including Southern Sudan which voted in favor of independence, but was not an official UN Member State as of May 2011.
Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha.
Includes other non-specified areas.
For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China.
As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Sabah and Sarawak.
Including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Including Northern-Cyprus.
Including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Including East Jerusalem.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

173

Including Transnistria.
Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.
Including land Islands.
Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.
Refers to the Vatican City State.
Including Kosovo.
Including Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla.
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Including Saint-Barthlemy and Saint-Martin (French part).
Refers to Curaao, Sint Maarten (Dutch part), Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius.
Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and Norfolk Island.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.11. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country:
low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)
Africa

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

6 895 889 7 217 275 7 480 225 7 867 332 8 096 725

8 112 191

7 940 112 7 624 235 7 191 850 6 691 274 6 177 378

1 235 900 1 245 813 1 247 140


5 659 989 5 971 462 6 233 085
832 330
922 537 1 012 784
4 827 660 5 048 925 5 220 301

1 157 559
6 954 632
1 517 378
5 437 253

1 095 230
6 844 882
1 642 492
5 202 391

1 232 471
6 634 862
1 190 957
5 443 904

1 204 263
6 892 461
1 364 617
5 527 844

1 029 404
962 506
895 340
830 115
6 594 831 6 229 344 5 795 934 5 347 263
1 732 671 1 782 151 1 793 130 1 771 626
4 862 160 4 447 194 4 002 804 3 575 637

4 287 841 4 583 365 4 846 263 5 285 615 5 618 738 5 797 705 5 827 871 5 721 175 5 492 839 5 181 194 4 827 318
856 327

959 414 1 066 416 1 286 987 1 515 806 1 731 743 1 923 233 2 078 979 2 187 567 2 245 386 2 254 281

1 022 234 1 135 565 1 250 978 1 482 834 1 717 227 1 931 855

2 115 104 2 257 071 2 348 286 2 387 588 2 378 387

Eastern Africa
Burundi .....................................
Comoros....................................
Djibouti .....................................
Eritrea........................................
Ethiopia .....................................
Kenya ........................................
Madagascar ...............................
Malawi ......................................
Mauritius (1) .............................
Mayotte .....................................
Mozambique .............................
Runion .....................................
Rwanda .....................................
Seychelles .................................
Somalia .....................................
Uganda ......................................
UR Tanzania (2) .......................
Zambia ......................................
Zimbabwe .................................

324 044
8 383
735
889
5 254
82 950
40 513
20 714
14 901
1 299
204
23 391
846
10 624
87
9 331
33 425
44 841
13 089
12 571

366 017
9 151
826
967
6 023
91 212
45 929
23 649
17 386
1 321
235
25 946
885
12 195
87
10 532
38 805
51 887
15 124
13 856

409 815
9 834
914
1 042
6 697
98 768
51 435
26 774
20 282
1 328
265
28 567
914
13 762
88
12 028
44 535
59 869
17 583
15 131

500 045
10 827
1 104
1 195
7 956
111 709
62 571
33 504
26 939
1 313
324
34 046
950
16 767
87
15 712
57 054
78 052
23 441
16 494

595 076
11 546
1 313
1 324
9 185
121 142
74 209
40 441
35 123
1 264
384
39 346
961
19 996
85
20 300
70 592
99 545
31 066
17 255

686 922
11 933
1 502
1 418
10 143
125 834
84 975
47 021
44 531
1 179
432
43 862
941
23 105
79
25 575
83 580
122 813
40 485
17 515

770 895
11 873
1 690
1 448
10 735
126 089
94 011
52 896
54 556
1 071
465
47 613
901
25 598
71
31 416
95 433
146 467
51 289
17 272

842 457
11 443
1 852
1 433
11 002
121 855
100 741
57 589
64 883
955
483
50 183
850
27 523
63
37 485
105 118
169 132
63 355
16 513

896 750
10 744
1 966
1 379
10 925
113 376
104 706
60 704
74 867
838
487
51 373
789
28 695
54
43 344
111 803
189 209
76 122
15 368

932 153
9 869
2 028
1 296
10 532
102 112
105 778
62 064
83 971
728
475
51 236
719
28 984
46
48 628
115 218
205 458
88 955
14 056

948 761
8 887
2 039
1 194
9 901
89 969
104 045
61 775
91 706
635
449
49 914
649
28 458
39
52 978
115 345
216 854
101 230
12 693

Middle Africa
Angola.......................................
Cameroon..................................
Central African Rep. .................
Chad ..........................................
Congo........................................
DR Congo .................................
Equatorial Guinea .....................
Gabon........................................
Sao Tome and Principe .............

126 689
19 082
19 599
4 401
11 227
4 043
65 966
700
1 505
165

142 484
21 667
21 627
4 815
12 682
4 470
74 606
796
1 641
181

158 445
24 276
23 595
5 231
14 197
4 897
83 393
888
1 774
195

190 241
29 240
27 302
6 038
17 600
5 858
100 910
1 050
2 023
221

220 198
33 663
30 783
6 766
21 074
6 841
117 390
1 196
2 242
243

245 146
37 095
33 588
7 340
24 207
7 720
131 208
1 316
2 414
258

263 664
39 377
35 556
7 696
26 829
8 453
141 565
1 395
2 529
265

274 068
40 299
36 553
7 800
28 694
9 002
147 450
1 433
2 575
263

275 777
39 834
36 538
7 668
29 668
9 315
148 518
1 431
2 552
253

269 516
38 134
35 609
7 343
29 763
9 378
145 191
1 390
2 473
236

256 780
35 533
33 939
6 868
29 051
9 204
138 298
1 318
2 354
216

Northern Africa
Algeria.......................................
Egypt .........................................
Libya .........................................
Morocco ....................................
Sudan (3) ..................................
Tunisia.......................................
Western Sahara..........................

209 459
35 468
81 121
6 355
31 951
43 552
10 481
531

224 817
37 554
87 304
6 534
33 229
48 666
10 912
618

238 332
39 117
92 462
6 895
34 170
53 770
11 217
701

259 296
40 832
100 276
7 319
35 185
63 449
11 476
759

273 981
41 218
105 359
7 578
35 091
72 561
11 386
788

280 136
40 233
106 691
7 606
33 813
80 024
10 981
788

277 443
37 683
104 445
7 317
31 463
85 571
10 207
757

266 774
34 037
99 035
6 802
28 351
88 681
9 164
704

249 811
29 977
90 992
6 182
24 859
89 092
8 067
642

229 187
26 031
81 645
5 482
21 400
86 986
7 067
577

207 002
22 407
71 934
4 748
18 336
82 896
6 171
510

Southern Africa
Botswana...................................
Lesotho......................................
Namibia.....................................
South Africa ..............................
Swaziland..................................

57 780
2 007
2 171
2 283
50 133
1 186

58 985
2 094
2 263
2 459
50 912
1 257

59 600
2 148
2 332
2 606
51 209
1 306

59 976
2 190
2 396
2 857
51 168
1 365

59 007
2 172
2 395
3 027
50 012
1 401

56 680
2 104
2 331
3 093
47 740
1 412

53 645
2 000
2 219
3 063
44 970
1 393

49 960
1 865
2 070
2 944
41 742
1 339

45 562
1 707
1 901
2 740
37 964
1 249

40 811
1 541
1 734
2 485
33 912
1 140

36 124
1 376
1 580
2 215
29 929
1 024

Western Africa
Benin .........................................
Burkina Faso .............................
Cape Verde ................................

304 261
8 850
16 469
496

343 262
10 048
18 972
515

384 785
11 292
21 735
530

473 276
13 932
27 840
550

568 963
16 698
34 729
555

662 971
19 284
41 885
540

749 457
21 550
48 870
507

823 813
23 347
55 328
457

880 386
24 496
60 785
394

915 920
24 949
64 862
329

929 721
24 742
67 349
273

174

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.11. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Cte d'Ivoire..............................
Gambia......................................
Ghana ........................................
Guinea .......................................
Guinea-Bissau ...........................
Liberia .......................................
Mali ...........................................
Mauritania .................................
Niger .........................................
Nigeria.......................................
St. Helena (4) ............................
Senegal......................................
Sierra Leone ..............................
Togo ..........................................
Asia (5)

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

19 738
1 728
24 392
9 982
1 515
3 994
15 370
3 460
15 512
158 423
4
12 434
5 868
6 028

21 828
1 959
27 082
11 228
1 668
4 522
17 686
3 838
18 370
178 425
4
14 040
6 461
6 616

23 974
2 194
29 675
12 513
1 827
5 063
20 161
4 210
21 692
200 050
4
15 655
7 032
7 179

28 256
2 673
34 651
15 186
2 157
6 221
25 621
4 943
29 606
246 388
4
18 939
8 099
8 211

32 310
3 143
39 368
17 913
2 501
7 437
31 680
5 655
39 254
297 318
4
22 260
9 045
9 094

35 655
3 548
43 149
20 398
2 831
8 558
37 719
6 252
50 183
348 396
4
25 150
9 716
9 703

38 028
3 861
45 747
22 487
3 129
9 539
43 384
6 707
61 868
396 217
3
27 446
10 107
10 005

39 221
4 065
47 095
24 034
3 380
10 332
48 360
7 005
73 573
438 376
3
29 035
10 208
9 994

39 192
4 141
47 063
24 889
3 565
10 863
52 215
7 115
84 419
471 814
3
29 744
10 004
9 684

38 130
4 096
45 767
25 033
3 681
11 105
54 683
7 042
93 651
494 308
2
29 595
9 546
9 139

36 273
3 952
43 464
24 538
3 726
11 071
55 710
6 819
100 691
505 014
2
28 733
8 922
8 441

4 164 252 4 333 812 4 456 773 4 593 575 4 602 379 4 457 562 4 189 424 3 835 105 3 427 049 3 008 905 2 623 609

Eastern Asia (5)


China (6) ...................................
China, Hong Kong SAR (7) .....
China, Macao SAR (8) .............
DPR Korea ................................
Japan .........................................
Mongolia ...................................
Rep. of Korea ............................

1 573 970 1 589 503 1 585 940 1 539 901 1 452 733 1 321 336
1 341 335 1 357 041 1 355 822 1 318 826 1 244 685 1 130 211
7 053
7 361
7 624
8 047
8 282
8 330
544
595
638
703
736
736
24 346
24 640
24 779
24 683
24 046
22 771
126 536
125 134
122 507
114 881
106 047
96 568
2 756
2 943
3 102
3 318
3 470
3 539
48 184
48 689
48 730
47 772
45 447
41 531

South-Central Asia (9)

1 764 872 1 872 230 1 960 421 2 086 578 2 149 334 2 134 341 2 049 459 1 904 378 1 715 334 1 507 814 1 304 769

Central Asia
Kazakhstan................................
Kyrgyzstan ................................
Tajikistan...................................
Turkmenistan ............................
Uzbekistan.................................
Southern Asia
Afghanistan ...............................
Bangladesh................................
Bhutan .......................................
India ..........................................
Iran ............................................
Maldives....................................
Nepal .........................................
Pakistan .....................................
Sri Lanka...................................

60 726
16 026
5 334
6 879
5 042
27 445

63 671
16 719
5 566
7 326
5 308
28 751

66 330
17 250
5 853
7 756
5 524
29 947

69 615
17 830
6 267
8 462
5 781
31 275

71 031
18 252
6 558
8 961
5 842
31 418

70 293
18 352
6 652
9 212
5 693
30 383

1 165 311 1 005 820


993 144
852 695
8 187
7 947
708
663
21 169
19 394
86 870
77 254
3 489
3 376
36 772
32 140

67 342
17 990
6 564
9 179
5 352
28 256

62 905
17 448
6 353
8 869
4 868
25 367

853 787
718 298
7 650
611
17 440
68 665
3 226
27 951

57 406
16 737
6 033
8 308
4 288
22 041

719 013
598 875
7 338
563
15 514
61 407
3 056
24 297

51 583
15 878
5 681
7 593
3 688
18 743

613 202
505 842
7 059
527
13 808
55 213
2 881
21 355

46 107
14 939
5 337
6 843
3 127
15 861

1 704 146 1 808 559 1 894 091 2 016 963 2 078 303 2 064 048 1 982 117 1 841 472 1 657 927 1 456 231 1 258 662
31 412
36 478
41 392
50 928
60 129
68 141
74 433
78 348
79 600
78 369
75 017
148 692
156 657
162 814
170 286
171 556
165 966
154 554
138 460
119 354
99 827
82 344
726
776
808
844
851
826
773
694
600
507
423
1 224 614 1 295 672 1 353 476 1 435 285 1 473 122 1 457 433 1 396 006 1 294 883 1 164 705 1 021 374
880 334
73 974
76 973
78 657
78 985
77 392
73 214
65 880
56 414
46 417
37 998
31 397
316
333
345
357
358
347
323
286
239
192
154
29 959
32 243
34 224
37 343
39 200
39 578
38 609
36 328
32 935
28 913
24 936
173 593
187 919
200 540
221 103
234 396
238 538
233 311
219 755
199 757
176 629
153 363
20 860
21 509
21 835
21 833
21 300
20 004
18 227
16 304
14 322
12 422
10 695

South-Eastern Asia
Brunei Darussalam....................
Cambodia ..................................
Indonesia ...................................
Lao PDR....................................
Malaysia (10) ............................
Myanmar ...................................
Philippines.................................
Singapore ..................................
Thailand ....................................
Timor-Leste...............................
Viet Nam ...................................

593 415
399
14 138
239 871
6 201
28 401
47 963
93 261
5 086
69 122
1 124
87 848

619 643
429
14 862
249 355
6 562
30 432
49 402
100 466
5 330
70 228
1 292
91 285

639 464
453
15 474
255 991
6 860
32 221
50 372
107 117
5 480
70 434
1 482
93 580

664 184
489
16 264
262 902
7 251
35 185
50 989
118 992
5 681
69 255
1 898
95 278

671 162
512
16 526
262 331
7 351
37 229
50 081
128 441
5 684
66 508
2 304
94 195

655 578
518
16 234
252 677
7 152
37 985
47 592
133 923
5 450
61 714
2 679
89 652

621 077
509
15 433
235 436
6 714
37 705
43 801
135 510
5 092
55 803
2 995
82 078

573 275
490
14 133
213 334
6 060
36 561
39 273
133 208
4 708
49 627
3 209
72 672

516 498
464
12 472
188 866
5 236
34 540
34 435
127 198
4 311
43 409
3 311
62 254

456 810
435
10 760
164 108
4 393
31 873
29 783
118 316
3 929
37 500
3 306
52 407

400 628
408
9 181
141 214
3 662
29 014
25 785
107 898
3 604
32 395
3 204
44 263

Western Asia
Armenia.....................................
Azerbaijan (11) .........................
Bahrain......................................
Cyprus (12) ...............................

231 995
3 092
9 188
1 262
1 104

252 436
3 100
9 647
1 392
1 154

270 948
3 067
9 973
1 477
1 189

302 912
2 926
10 229
1 579
1 228

329 150
2 749
10 286
1 628
1 229

346 307
2 512
10 047
1 600
1 180

353 578
2 241
9 561
1 490
1 099

351 632
1 960
8 959
1 345
999

341 431
1 667
8 251
1 213
888

325 267
1 411
7 591
1 096
785

305 010
1 212
6 967
967
701

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

175

Table A.11. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

4 352
31 672
7 418
6 187
2 737
4 228
4 039
2 782
1 759
27 448
20 411
72 752
7 512
24 053

4 186
36 666
7 993
6 732
3 059
4 340
4 607
3 030
2 019
30 250
21 977
76 235
8 303
27 747

3 985
41 791
8 487
7 185
3 320
4 399
5 199
3 213
2 165
32 717
23 497
78 743
8 991
31 551

3 553
52 515
9 337
7 913
3 811
4 409
6 399
3 403
2 297
36 263
26 187
81 564
10 038
39 258

3 139
63 503
10 097
8 408
4 271
4 286
7 546
3 417
2 397
38 390
27 991
81 917
10 766
47 131

2 733
73 817
10 647
8 533
4 589
4 011
8 555
3 258
2 417
39 142
28 594
79 259
11 024
54 390

2 366
82 923
10 947
8 327
4 725
3 621
9 361
2 971
2 332
38 320
28 275
74 086
10 627
60 306

2 017
90 319
11 037
7 850
4 711
3 163
9 898
2 626
2 162
35 994
27 047
67 281
9 739
64 525

1 690
95 379
10 911
7 155
4 601
2 681
10 129
2 277
1 956
32 688
24 887
59 528
8 747
66 781

1 422
97 880
10 582
6 336
4 421
2 231
10 065
1 916
1 758
29 037
22 101
51 648
7 831
67 156

1 213
97 890
10 066
5 502
4 157
1 864
9 759
1 559
1 559
25 260
19 205
44 389
6 867
65 874

738 199

735 773

728 433

704 288

673 203

632 130

582 463

532 599

485 889

443 300

405 145

Eastern Europe
Belarus ......................................
Bulgaria.....................................
Czech Rep. ................................
Hungary.....................................
Poland .......................................
Rep. of Moldova (15) ................
Romania ....................................
Russian Federation....................
Slovakia.....................................
Ukraine......................................

294 771
9 595
7 494
10 493
9 984
38 277
3 573
21 486
142 958
5 462
45 448

289 493
9 352
7 193
10 538
9 816
37 991
3 417
21 050
140 870
5 453
43 815

282 438
9 064
6 859
10 503
9 607
37 454
3 270
20 505
137 710
5 412
42 055

264 565
8 401
6 142
10 250
9 131
35 737
2 958
19 246
129 126
5 238
38 336

244 705
7 690
5 445
9 835
8 625
33 272
2 619
17 832
119 724
4 946
34 718

222 520
6 893
4 737
9 386
8 091
30 428
2 253
16 148
108 941
4 578
31 066

199 097
6 094
4 021
8 819
7 484
27 431
1 950
14 224
97 546
4 150
27 379

176 124
5 341
3 374
8 133
6 841
24 206
1 650
12 293
86 712
3 682
23 893

155 245
4 666
2 843
7 484
6 237
21 119
1 361
10 594
76 873
3 244
20 824

138 040
4 115
2 439
6 923
5 693
18 660
1 127
9 223
68 632
2 888
18 342

123 756
3 668
2 130
6 387
5 199
16 709
957
8 116
61 653
2 598
16 339

Northern Europe
Channel Islands (16) .................
Denmark....................................
Estonia.......................................
Faeroe Islands ...........................
Finland (17) ...............................
Iceland.......................................
Ireland .......................................
Isle of Man ................................
Latvia ........................................
Lithuania ...................................
Norway (18) ..............................
Sweden......................................
United Kingdom........................

99 205
153
5 550
1 341
49
5 365
320
4 470
83
2 252
3 324
4 883
9 380
62 036

101 079
154
5 605
1 325
50
5 409
336
4 689
84
2 190
3 222
5 015
9 574
63 426

102 397
153
5 626
1 300
50
5 420
350
4 860
84
2 118
3 115
5 127
9 728
64 466

103 861
150
5 599
1 229
51
5 354
370
5 091
83
1 962
2 894
5 305
9 883
65 889

103 310
144
5 469
1 154
50
5 191
381
5 265
80
1 809
2 673
5 395
9 848
65 851

100 671
135
5 219
1 076
49
4 963
381
5 356
75
1 653
2 435
5 381
9 679
64 268

96 399
126
4 923
986
46
4 722
373
5 306
69
1 484
2 188
5 293
9 382
61 501

91 536
118
4 636
893
44
4 482
360
5 174
64
1 313
1 945
5 168
9 013
58 327

86 170
112
4 336
808
41
4 218
344
5 021
59
1 160
1 714
5 003
8 585
54 769

80 253
106
4 009
735
38
3 934
324
4 844
54
1 036
1 524
4 779
8 084
50 785

74 430
102
3 696
670
34
3 654
304
4 623
49
934
1 372
4 518
7 567
46 906

Southern Europe
Albania......................................
Andorra .....................................
Bosnia and Herzegovina ...........
Croatia.......................................
Gibraltar ....................................
Greece .......................................
Holy See (19) ............................
Italy ...........................................
Malta .........................................
Montenegro ...............................
Portugal .....................................
San Marino................................
Serbia (20) .................................
Slovenia.....................................
Spain (21) ..................................
TFYR Macedonia (22) ..............

155 171
3 204
85
3 760
4 403
29
11 359
0
60 551
417
631
10 676
32
9 856
2 030
46 077
2 061

156 152
3 225
91
3 682
4 325
29
11 399
0
60 775
419
628
10 613
32
9 722
2 036
47 121
2 054

155 301
3 207
96
3 565
4 222
29
11 339
0
60 146
418
621
10 406
32
9 503
2 024
47 668
2 025

151 156
3 084
106
3 285
3 976
28
11 084
0
58 153
408
597
9 805
32
8 970
1 962
47 734
1 931

145 829
2 868
116
2 959
3 695
26
10 799
0
55 903
389
566
9 135
32
8 371
1 877
47 287
1 805

137 952
2 556
123
2 566
3 373
24
10 356
0
52 860
365
523
8 271
30
7 631
1 767
45 868
1 640

126 182
2 196
126
2 160
3 038
22
9 690
0
48 698
339
475
7 202
28
6 809
1 634
42 315
1 449

113 566
1 811
126
1 771
2 708
20
8 966
0
44 531
313
422
6 145
26
5 960
1 498
38 019
1 250

102 310
1 411
124
1 413
2 394
19
8 289
0
41 113
285
369
5 206
24
5 129
1 368
34 110
1 056

92 524
1 064
119
1 127
2 116
17
7 642
0
38 113
261
319
4 404
22
4 389
1 250
30 794
888

83 962
820
112
923
1 882
15
6 982
0
35 540
245
277
3 739
20
3 773
1 139
27 735
757

Georgia (13) ..............................


Iraq ............................................
Israel..........................................
Jordan........................................
Kuwait.......................................
Lebanon.....................................
Occupied Palestinian Terr. (14) .
Oman.........................................
Qatar..........................................
Saudi Arabia..............................
Syrian Arab Rep........................
Turkey .......................................
United Arab Emirates ...............
Yemen .......................................
Europe

176

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.11. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Western Europe
Austria.......................................
Belgium.....................................
France........................................
Germany....................................
Liechtenstein .............................
Luxembourg ..............................
Monaco .....................................
Netherlands ...............................
Switzerland ...............................
Latin America and Caribbean

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

189 052
8 394
10 712
62 787
82 302
36
507
35
16 613
7 664

189 049
8 395
10 784
63 917
80 865
37
538
35
16 725
7 752

188 298
8 341
10 788
64 591
79 442
38
564
35
16 718
7 781

184 707
8 162
10 708
65 223
75 744
40
605
34
16 492
7 697

179 359
7 887
10 564
65 297
71 474
40
630
33
16 014
7 421

170 986
7 456
10 273
64 209
66 186
40
627
32
15 187
6 976

160 785
6 909
9 861
62 262
60 427
40
607
30
14 226
6 423

151 373
6 379
9 458
60 117
55 504
39
580
29
13 391
5 877

142 164
5 854
9 046
57 641
51 054
37
547
28
12 591
5 365

132 483
5 316
8 571
54 629
46 815
36
507
27
11 708
4 875

122 998
4 813
8 051
51 317
43 006
33
467
26
10 844
4 440

590 082

616 354

636 114

659 971

664 070

645 870

610 622

563 055

506 032

444 831

385 381

Caribbean
Anguilla.....................................
Antigua and Barbuda ................
Aruba.........................................
Bahamas....................................
Barbados ...................................
British Virgin Islands ................
Cayman Islands.........................
Cuba ..........................................
Dominica...................................
Dominican Rep. ........................
Grenada .....................................
Guadeloupe (23) ........................
Haiti...........................................
Jamaica......................................
Martinique.................................
Montserrat .................................
Netherlands Antilles (24) ..........
Puerto Rico................................
St. Kitts and Nevis ....................
St. Lucia ....................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Trinidad and Tobago .................
Turks and Caicos Islands ..........
US Virgin Islands ......................

41 646
15
89
107
343
273
23
56
11 258
68
9 927
104
461
9 993
2 741
406
6
201
3 749
52
174
109
1 341
38
109

42 647
16
92
108
360
274
24
58
11 138
67
10 448
105
467
10 556
2 763
408
6
206
3 708
55
181
108
1 348
40
107

43 285
17
95
108
373
273
25
59
10 940
66
10 843
105
470
11 041
2 757
406
6
208
3 660
57
185
107
1 337
42
104

43 708
17
99
106
391
266
26
60
10 430
65
11 322
101
465
11 786
2 665
393
6
203
3 542
60
188
104
1 274
43
96

42 912
17
99
99
396
252
26
59
9 682
61
11 385
92
448
12 208
2 460
370
6
192
3 383
60
185
101
1 201
42
88

40 662
16
96
90
389
231
25
55
8 645
55
10 993
79
416
12 200
2 147
335
6
175
3 158
59
175
96
1 102
40
80

37 835
14
91
81
373
207
23
50
7 450
50
10 428
69
379
11 975
1 896
296
6
153
2 894
56
162
89
984
36
73

34 568
13
85
72
352
184
22
46
6 305
44
9 693
60
344
11 446
1 681
261
5
130
2 592
52
145
80
858
32
67

30 953
11
77
64
327
162
20
42
5 301
38
8 782
51
311
10 628
1 466
228
5
110
2 265
47
126
70
734
28
60

27 188
10
69
56
301
142
18
40
4 401
33
7 759
42
277
9 643
1 253
195
4
93
1 940
42
107
60
627
25
53

23 638
9
61
49
279
126
16
37
3 662
28
6 727
36
245
8 619
1 066
167
4
81
1 646
37
90
50
539
21
46

Central America
Belize ........................................
Costa Rica .................................
El Salvador................................
Guatemala .................................
Honduras ...................................
Mexico ......................................
Nicaragua ..................................
Panama......................................

155 881
312
4 659
6 193
14 389
7 601
113 423
5 788
3 517

164 830
340
4 937
6 314
16 172
8 308
118 865
6 146
3 748

171 974
367
5 139
6 421
17 949
8 948
122 784
6 423
3 943

182 086
411
5 357
6 608
21 442
10 017
127 238
6 767
4 246

186 902
441
5 373
6 629
24 711
10 782
127 700
6 847
4 419

185 234
454
5 192
6 428
27 444
11 151
123 494
6 640
4 432

178 036
452
4 849
6 101
29 559
11 183
115 254
6 334
4 304

167 356
436
4 390
5 632
30 839
10 854
105 246
5 892
4 068

153 491
405
3 846
5 030
31 162
10 184
93 806
5 306
3 751

137 419
364
3 281
4 349
30 577
9 270
81 559
4 642
3 378

120 891
321
2 770
3 690
29 252
8 247
69 644
3 985
2 983

South America
Argentina...................................
Bolivia.......................................
Brazil.........................................
Chile..........................................
Colombia...................................
Ecuador .....................................
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)......
French Guiana...........................
Guyana ......................................
Paraguay....................................
Peru ...........................................
Suriname ...................................

392 555
40 412
9 930
194 946
17 114
46 295
14 465
3
231
754
6 455
29 077
525

408 877
41 784
10 640
201 269
17 702
48 884
15 295
3
260
756
6 961
30 463
543

420 854
42 823
11 320
205 155
18 105
50 904
15 950
3
289
754
7 415
31 644
555

434 178
44 103
12 628
207 206
18 440
53 496
16 823
3
346
743
8 160
33 403
566

434 257
44 500
13 767
202 495
18 220
54 299
17 122
3
400
708
8 677
34 123
558

419 973
43 747
14 534
191 085
17 412
53 157
16 779
3
446
648
8 907
33 575
527

394 752
41 909
14 890
174 754
16 132
50 638
16 047
2
476
609
8 910
32 138
493

361 131
39 165
14 804
155 062
14 594
47 061
14 951
2
493
558
8 668
29 943
452

321 588
35 761
14 276
133 489
12 895
42 656
13 546
2
496
496
8 186
27 138
404

280 225
32 088
13 386
112 344
11 165
37 797
11 968
2
487
429
7 542
23 990
355

240 852
28 471
12 284
93 222
9 612
32 997
10 375
2
469
370
6 820
20 883
309

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

177

Table A.11. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
low variant, 2010-2100
Low variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Uruguay.....................................
Venezuela ..................................

3 369
28 980

3 398
30 919

3 417
32 520

3 403
34 857

3 326
36 059

3 168
35 986

2 965
34 787

2 728
32 650

2 463
29 779

2 185
26 487

1 922
23 118

Northern America
Bermuda....................................
Canada.......................................
Greenland..................................
St. Pierre and Miquelon ............
United States of America ..........

344 529
65
34 017
57
6
310 384

356 749
65
35 335
57
6
321 285

366 764
65
36 400
56
6
330 237

381 944
63
37 911
51
6
343 912

392 460
61
38 727
48
5
353 619

395 958
57
38 846
42
5
357 008

393 352
53
38 295
38
5
354 960

387 782
50
37 334
34
5
350 360

377 343
46
35 873
29
4
341 391

361 550
43
33 930
24
4
327 549

342 377
39
31 669
21
4
310 645

36 593

39 023

41 164

44 720

47 385

48 817

49 147

48 622

47 252

45 100

42 478

Australia/New Zealand
Australia (25) ............................
New Zealand .............................

26 637
22 268
4 368

28 158
23 594
4 564

29 436
24 711
4 725

31 358
26 404
4 954

32 554
27 495
5 059

32 904
27 878
5 025

32 546
27 650
4 896

31 768
27 036
4 733

30 609
26 079
4 530

29 083
24 803
4 280

27 380
23 361
4 019

Melanesia
Fiji .............................................
New Caledonia..........................
Papua New Guinea....................
Solomon Islands........................
Vanuatu .....................................

8 748
861
251
6 858
538
240

9 607
887
268
7 580
605
268

10 427
901
280
8 280
669
296

11 999
903
297
9 649
798
352

13 437
897
304
10 908
922
406

14 539
875
300
11 887
1 025
451

15 251
837
289
12 541
1 098
486

15 542
785
271
12 838
1 140
509

15 398
724
250
12 760
1 148
516

14 860
656
227
12 344
1 123
511

14 036
586
204
11 680
1 071
494

Micronesia
Guam.........................................
Kiribati ......................................
Marshall Islands ........................
Micronesia (Fed. States of) .......
Nauru.........................................
Northern Mariana Islands .........
Palau..........................................

536
180
100
54
111
10
61
20

565
189
106
58
113
10
66
21

589
197
113
61
116
11
69
22

624
209
124
64
121
10
72
23

640
214
132
67
123
10
70
24

630
212
136
65
120
9
64
24

617
206
135
65
122
9
56
24

591
196
130
65
121
8
47
23

550
182
122
63
116
7
39
21

501
165
110
60
108
7
32
19

451
147
99
56
99
6
26
18

Polynesia (26)
American Samoa.......................
Cook Islands..............................
French Polynesia.......................
Niue...........................................
Samoa........................................
Tokelau......................................
Tonga.........................................
Tuvalu .......................................
Wallis and Futuna Islands .........

673
68
20
271
1
183
1
104
10
14

694
74
21
283
1
186
1
105
10
13

712
79
21
291
1
188
1
109
10
13

739
90
21
299
1
190
1
114
10
12

755
99
21
297
1
194
1
120
10
12

744
105
20
284
1
190
1
120
11
11

733
110
19
264
1
193
1
123
12
10

721
111
18
239
1
201
1
128
12
9

695
110
16
210
1
206
1
130
13
8

655
105
14
181
1
205
1
128
13
7

612
99
12
154
1
201
1
124
13
6

Oceania

a
b
c
d
e
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

178

More developed regions comprise Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand and Japan.
Less developed regions comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.
The least developed countries are 48 countries, 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania plus one in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Other less developed countries comprise the less developed regions excluding the least developed countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all of Africa except Northern Africa, with the Sudan included in sub-Saharan Africa.
Including Agalega, Rodrigues, and Saint Brandon.
Including Zanzibar.
Including Southern Sudan which voted in favor of independence, but was not an official UN Member State as of May 2011.
Including Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha.
Includes other non-specified areas.
For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China.
As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.
The regions Southern Asia and Central Asia are combined into South-Central Asia.
Including Sabah and Sarawak.
Including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Including Northern-Cyprus.
Including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Including East Jerusalem.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

179

Including Transnistria.
Refers to Guernsey, and Jersey.
Including land Islands.
Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.
Refers to the Vatican City State.
Including Kosovo.
Including Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla.
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Including Saint-Barthlemy and Saint-Martin (French part).
Refers to Curaao, Sint Maarten (Dutch part), Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius.
Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and Norfolk Island.
Including Pitcairn.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.12. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country:
constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100
Constant-fertility variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
World
More dev. regions (a)
Less dev. regions (b)
Least dev. countries (c)
Other less dev. countries (d)
Less dev. regions, excl. China
Sub-Saharan Africa (e)
Africa

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

6 895 889 7 323 598 7 772 757 8 700 336 9 722 061 10 942 544 12 475 188 14 518 851 17 339 315 21 289 304 26 843 946
1 235 900 1 253 674 1 266 176
5 659 989 6 069 924 6 506 581
832 330
942 022 1 071 673
4 827 660 5 127 902 5 434 908

1 276 310
7 424 026
1 393 708
6 030 318

1 271 037
8 451 024
1 827 402
6 623 623

4 287 841 4 664 593 5 076 758 5 985 373 7 047 608
856 327

1 251 913
9 690 631
2 433 594
7 257 037

1 221 939
11 253 249
3 287 602
7 965 647

1 188 073
13 330 779
4 501 409
8 829 370

1 154 447
16 184 868
6 247 050
9 937 818

1 122 433
20 166 871
8 770 761
11 396 110

1 089 829
25 754 117
12 429 526
13 324 591

8 359 117 10 021 750 12 205 124 15 163 501 19 242 074 24 911 634

977 516 1 122 099

1 489 711 1 999 101 2 720 067 3 741 903 5 194 022 7 270 510 10 246 711 14 519 642

1 022 234 1 157 022 1 315 899

1 711 238 2 247 831 2 996 915 4 046 528 5 526 726 7 634 194 10 645 899 14 958 647

Eastern Africa
Burundi .....................................
Comoros....................................
Djibouti .....................................
Eritrea........................................
Ethiopia .....................................
Kenya ........................................
Madagascar ...............................
Malawi ......................................
Mauritius (1) .............................
Mayotte .....................................
Mozambique .............................
Runion .....................................
Rwanda .....................................
Seychelles .................................
Somalia .....................................
Uganda ......................................
UR Tanzania (2) .......................
Zambia ......................................
Zimbabwe .................................

324 044
8 383
735
889
5 254
82 950
40 513
20 714
14 901
1 299
204
23 391
846
10 624
87
9 331
33 425
44 841
13 089
12 571

373 190
9 381
840
985
6 161
94 266
46 537
24 110
17 520
1 337
238
26 494
898
12 327
88
10 628
39 666
52 422
15 106
14 185

432 190
10 545
959
1 096
7 122
108 059
53 451
28 200
20 711
1 371
276
30 247
949
14 267
91
12 283
47 291
61 548
17 612
16 112

581 452
13 159
1 260
1 374
9 414
142 219
70 521
38 570
29 141
1 412
372
40 020
1 048
18 987
95
16 770
67 701
85 497
24 360
19 529

786 449 1 075 181 1 481 047 2 051 700 2 860 210 4 008 783 5 643 676
16 355
20 711
26 377
33 649
43 355
56 207
72 948
1 681
2 249
3 050
4 156
5 667
7 735
10 567
1 698
2 100
2 578
3 163
3 893
4 810
5 944
12 450
16 454
21 654
28 510
37 610
49 628
65 498
185 293
242 923
319 482
419 482
552 073
728 302
961 825
93 522
124 524
166 169
222 223
298 010
400 511
539 026
52 482
71 477
97 368
132 623
180 723
246 396
336 143
41 545
59 888
86 761
126 318
184 676
270 883
398 426
1 412
1 380
1 327
1 259
1 187
1 113
1 043
501
663
872
1 147
1 505
1 972
2 583
53 521
72 506
99 185
136 504
188 705
261 754
364 068
1 141
1 225
1 311
1 401
1 497
1 598
1 706
25 470
34 592
47 071
64 351
88 547
122 108
168 617
99
99
99
98
96
95
94
23 284
32 761
46 732
67 336
97 665
142 317
207 967
98 249
144 527
214 655
320 958
482 049
725 997 1 095 582
120 015
169 663
240 985
343 345
490 280
701 156 1 003 810
34 388
49 312
71 526
104 576
153 816
227 122
336 127
23 344
28 128
33 846
40 602
48 856
59 078
71 703

Middle Africa
Angola.......................................
Cameroon..................................
Central African Rep. .................
Chad ..........................................
Congo........................................
DR Congo .................................
Equatorial Guinea .....................
Gabon........................................
Sao Tome and Principe .............

126 689
19 082
19 599
4 401
11 227
4 043
65 966
700
1 505
165

145 955
22 285
22 083
4 904
12 949
4 534
76 538
811
1 666
185

169 247
26 227
24 959
5 507
15 047
5 096
89 425
933
1 847
207

229 591
36 439
31 913
7 018
20 856
6 593
123 041
1 222
2 247
260

315 714
51 016
41 240
9 025
29 386
8 606
171 789
1 620
2 706
326

441 545
72 484
53 918
11 732
42 152
11 295
244 119
2 182
3 253
410

625 836
104 059
71 056
15 363
61 301
14 907
351 769
2 972
3 896
514

897 128 1 298 370 1 892 524 2 772 095


150 557
219 263
320 693
470 360
94 303
125 958
168 990
227 370
20 231
26 789
35 630
47 497
90 104
133 578
199 131
297 851
19 772
26 316
35 097
46 873
512 780
754 446 1 117 439 1 661 885
4 085
5 665
7 901
11 058
4 651
5 547
6 627
7 926
645
808
1 015
1 274

Northern Africa
Algeria.......................................
Egypt .........................................
Libya .........................................
Morocco ....................................
Sudan (3) ..................................
Tunisia.......................................
Western Sahara..........................

209 459
35 468
81 121
6 355
31 951
43 552
10 481
531

229 117
38 326
88 929
6 693
33 842
49 611
11 088
629

250 468
41 231
96 988
7 326
35 832
56 668
11 688
735

295 039
46 472
113 352
8 489
39 690
73 512
12 666
858

343 936
50 982
130 726
9 730
42 998
95 205
13 326
969

400 736
55 272
149 586
11 071
46 004
123 888
13 833
1 083

466 531
58 782
169 556
12 308
48 694
161 906
14 088
1 196

544 425
61 605
191 183
13 511
51 015
211 720
14 083
1 308

641 090
64 672
215 227
14 881
53 400
277 406
14 070
1 435

763 243
68 236
242 711
16 354
56 141
364 055
14 165
1 581

917 105
71 915
274 094
17 872
59 144
478 100
14 243
1 736

Southern Africa
Botswana...................................
Lesotho......................................
Namibia.....................................
South Africa ..............................
Swaziland..................................

57 780
2 007
2 171
2 283
50 133
1 186

60 006
2 137
2 313
2 516
51 751
1 288

62 405
2 269
2 474
2 768
53 497
1 396

67 942
2 539
2 821
3 349
57 594
1 639

74 019
2 836
3 234
4 019
61 977
1 954

81 199
3 197
3 761
4 816
67 045
2 381

89 652
3 616
4 405
5 757
72 957
2 917

99 315
4 093
5 191
6 851
79 606
3 574

110 223
4 651
6 173
8 143
86 876
4 380

122 559
5 309
7 409
9 689
94 774
5 378

136 634
6 067
8 959
11 538
103 454
6 616

Western Africa
Benin .........................................
Burkina Faso .............................
Cape Verde ................................

304 261
8 850
16 469
496

348 755
10 257
19 227
527

401 590
11 939
22 526
563

537 213
16 266
31 132
640

727 714
22 330
43 462
719

180

998 254 1 383 461 1 934 158 2 724 301 3 858 791 5 489 136
30 943
43 149
60 459
85 026
119 831
169 087
61 293
87 173
124 846
179 680
259 314
374 800
799
878
956
1 037
1 127
1 233

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.12. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100
Constant-fertility variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Cte d'Ivoire..............................
Gambia......................................
Ghana ........................................
Guinea .......................................
Guinea-Bissau ...........................
Liberia .......................................
Mali ...........................................
Mauritania .................................
Niger .........................................
Nigeria.......................................
St. Helena (4) ............................
Senegal......................................
Sierra Leone ..............................
Togo ..........................................
Asia (5)

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

19 738
1 728
24 392
9 982
1 515
3 994
15 370
3 460
15 512
158 423
4
12 434
5 868
6 028

22 323
2 000
27 621
11 466
1 701
4 612
18 000
3 911
18 641
180 711
4
14 356
6 630
6 768

25 471
2 323
31 278
13 245
1 920
5 341
21 138
4 426
22 528
207 100
4
16 619
7 532
7 636

33 321
3 137
39 971
17 816
2 469
7 230
29 601
5 671
33 358
274 737
4
22 319
9 824
9 717

43 708
4 236
51 013
24 220
3 220
9 870
42 256
7 286
50 151
369 789
4
30 111
13 008
12 331

57 731
5 745
65 206
33 319
4 269
13 579
61 255
9 412
76 394
504 278
4
40 830
17 472
15 726

76 518
7 811
83 377
46 233
5 734
18 819
89 988
12 227
117 557
694 556
4
55 562
23 760
20 114

2070

2080

2090

2100

101 640
135 517
181 304
243 125
10 635
14 498
19 778
26 982
106 694
136 803
175 686
225 815
64 554
90 589
127 538
179 886
7 781
10 658
14 696
20 341
26 249
36 785
51 689
72 743
133 615
199 788
299 956
451 374
15 960
20 910
27 457
36 086
182 113
283 326
441 915
690 345
964 426 1 347 724 1 891 142 2 660 505
4
4
4
4
75 828
103 718
142 006
194 499
32 630
45 121
62 658
87 210
25 767
33 119
42 691
55 102

4 164 252 4 401 495 4 639 486 5 080 986 5 493 204 5 907 516 6 343 488 6 858 178 7 513 470 8 378 958 9 529 633

Eastern Asia (5)


China (6) ...................................
China, Hong Kong SAR (7) .....
China, Macao SAR (8) .............
DPR Korea ................................
Japan .........................................
Mongolia ...................................
Rep. of Korea ............................

1 573 970 1 607 784 1 631 459 1 634 893 1 589 996 1 505 891 1 392 470 1 272 578 1 155 394 1 047 750
1 341 335 1 373 992 1 398 165 1 407 092 1 373 103 1 303 424 1 206 285 1 103 548 1 002 306
908 481
7 053
7 385
7 675
8 106
8 280
8 233
7 948
7 515
6 997
6 432
544
597
644
711
740
733
695
636
568
501
24 346
24 907
25 510
26 625
27 219
27 614
27 927
28 071
28 241
28 425
126 536
125 653
123 686
117 214
108 835
99 689
90 324
80 587
71 584
63 846
2 756
2 983
3 203
3 578
3 950
4 316
4 635
4 965
5 329
5 738
48 184
48 910
49 236
48 824
46 576
42 759
38 084
33 300
28 872
24 944

South-Central Asia (9)

1 764 872 1 906 998 2 057 173 2 364 534 2 687 424 3 040 676 3 426 678 3 867 178 4 394 497 5 048 001 5 871 863

Central Asia
Kazakhstan................................
Kyrgyzstan ................................
Tajikistan...................................
Turkmenistan ............................
Uzbekistan.................................
Southern Asia
Afghanistan ...............................
Bangladesh................................
Bhutan .......................................
India ..........................................
Iran ............................................
Maldives....................................
Nepal .........................................
Pakistan .....................................
Sri Lanka...................................

60 726
16 026
5 334
6 879
5 042
27 445

64 797
16 927
5 647
7 482
5 409
29 331

69 363
17 769
6 070
8 206
5 799
31 518

77 715
19 201
6 839
9 807
6 514
35 354

86 022
20 820
7 633
11 631
7 175
38 762

94 823
22 500
8 445
13 936
7 840
42 103

103 365
24 148
9 241
16 640
8 446
44 890

112 544
26 021
10 122
19 830
9 034
47 537

122 827
28 084
11 092
23 704
9 648
50 298

134 500
30 357
12 209
28 348
10 304
53 283

955 646
828 495
5 871
445
28 573
56 846
6 194
21 550

148 051
32 804
13 499
33 976
11 020
56 752

1 704 146 1 842 201 1 987 810 2 286 818 2 601 402 2 945 853 3 323 313 3 754 634 4 271 670 4 913 501 5 723 812
31 412
37 402
44 360
62 124
87 780
126 342
184 050
270 534
400 950
597 301
892 852
148 692
159 793
171 484
194 490
215 945
235 944
253 715
269 945
285 890
302 969
321 910
726
795
858
984
1 107
1 233
1 355
1 473
1 599
1 743
1 904
1 224 614 1 318 007 1 414 971 1 610 207 1 810 775 2 019 849 2 236 137 2 467 085 2 719 448 3 001 982 3 319 977
73 974
78 556
82 782
88 786
92 627
94 414
93 098
89 314
84 772
81 170
77 996
316
340
366
412
447
474
489
491
481
471
465
29 959
33 078
36 607
44 303
52 774
62 446
73 120
85 100
98 655
114 286
132 509
173 593
192 422
213 758
261 599
314 904
379 242
454 747
543 245
651 358
783 759
944 843
20 860
21 808
22 623
23 914
25 045
25 910
26 602
27 447
28 517
29 822
31 354

South-Eastern Asia
Brunei Darussalam....................
Cambodia ..................................
Indonesia ...................................
Lao PDR....................................
Malaysia (10) ............................
Myanmar ...................................
Philippines.................................
Singapore ..................................
Thailand ....................................
Timor-Leste...............................
Viet Nam ...................................

593 415
399
14 138
239 871
6 201
28 401
47 963
93 261
5 086
69 122
1 124
87 848

629 731
436
15 240
253 241
6 749
30 876
50 170
102 222
5 353
71 128
1 321
92 994

666 606
472
16 518
266 440
7 384
33 475
52 446
112 171
5 535
72 769
1 579
97 816

737 456
543
19 171
291 082
8 745
38 890
56 505
134 556
5 792
74 799
2 289
105 084

802 415
610
21 899
312 151
10 118
44 218
59 443
160 003
5 796
74 888
3 308
109 979

862 674
671
24 939
328 832
11 639
49 586
61 565
189 587
5 566
73 181
4 834
112 274

920 293
726
28 164
341 326
13 314
55 339
63 041
224 046
5 204
70 341
7 110
111 682

979 354 1 045 629 1 124 729 1 220 242


776
825
874
924
31 519
35 210
39 431
44 185
351 282
360 654
370 411
380 637
15 120
17 164
19 571
22 396
61 366
67 756
74 784
82 541
63 954
64 725
65 674
66 701
263 881
310 459
365 389
430 378
4 780
4 335
3 897
3 488
66 921
63 265
59 508
55 744
10 444
15 358
22 623
33 334
109 312
105 878
102 566
99 913

Western Asia
Armenia.....................................
Azerbaijan (11) .........................
Bahrain......................................
Cyprus (12) ...............................

231 995
3 092
9 188
1 262
1 104

256 983
3 133
9 753
1 413
1 167

284 248
3 143
10 232
1 534
1 223

344 103
3 094
10 819
1 731
1 304

413 369
3 020
11 323
1 914
1 339

498 275
2 887
11 640
2 079
1 328

604 048
2 728
11 789
2 199
1 285

739 068
2 555
11 924
2 325
1 216

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

917 949 1 158 478 1 481 882


2 360
2 193
2 057
12 009
12 190
12 401
2 509
2 739
2 980
1 134
1 055
983

181

Table A.12. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100
Constant-fertility variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

4 352
31 672
7 418
6 187
2 737
4 228
4 039
2 782
1 759
27 448
20 411
72 752
7 512
24 053

4 233
37 382
8 061
6 892
3 094
4 403
4 708
3 098
2 042
30 937
22 449
77 398
8 415
28 405

4 095
44 002
8 687
7 647
3 417
4 565
5 510
3 403
2 226
34 784
24 874
81 877
9 283
33 746

3 777
60 384
9 986
9 310
4 082
4 838
7 478
3 932
2 445
42 375
30 478
89 985
10 783
47 302

3 469
81 923
11 436
11 155
4 768
4 986
9 978
4 365
2 664
49 836
36 471
96 701
12 042
65 977

3 171
110 976
13 029
13 231
5 400
5 029
13 329
4 730
2 859
58 242
42 977
101 972
12 934
92 463

2 907
150 166
14 765
15 576
5 925
4 979
17 773
5 041
2 973
67 239
50 361
105 797
13 216
129 330

2 649
203 101
16 709
18 234
6 373
4 854
23 620
5 350
3 033
76 380
58 502
108 635
13 035
180 574

2 400
274 995
18 904
21 346
6 798
4 703
31 433
5 720
3 092
86 675
67 540
111 143
12 763
252 424

2 191
372 669
21 374
25 046
7 215
4 565
41 855
6 121
3 177
98 774
77 922
113 744
12 540
353 109

2 005
505 260
24 154
29 422
7 584
4 450
55 749
6 522
3 274
112 381
90 030
116 448
12 190
493 990

738 199

740 052

738 379

725 437

703 238

671 658

632 165

590 747

551 566

515 958

482 234

Eastern Europe
Belarus ......................................
Bulgaria.....................................
Czech Rep. ................................
Hungary.....................................
Poland .......................................
Rep. of Moldova (15) ................
Romania ....................................
Russian Federation....................
Slovakia.....................................
Ukraine......................................

294 771
9 595
7 494
10 493
9 984
38 277
3 573
21 486
142 958
5 462
45 448

291 048
9 406
7 226
10 590
9 864
38 203
3 460
21 158
141 618
5 480
44 042

285 703
9 177
6 930
10 616
9 716
37 887
3 369
20 743
139 279
5 469
42 518

270 735
8 606
6 287
10 450
9 331
36 391
3 151
19 705
132 314
5 321
39 180

252 918
7 965
5 641
10 102
8 861
34 066
2 897
18 398
124 101
5 034
35 852

232 070
7 216
4 975
9 693
8 351
31 279
2 615
16 811
114 125
4 658
32 346

209 751
6 453
4 304
9 144
7 754
28 221
2 389
14 950
103 548
4 206
28 783

187 041
5 711
3 681
8 458
7 082
24 875
2 153
13 009
93 072
3 699
25 303

165 586
5 019
3 160
7 776
6 421
21 567
1 913
11 261
83 152
3 208
22 108

147 220
4 430
2 758
7 151
5 798
18 782
1 711
9 795
74 582
2 786
19 427

130 690
3 910
2 422
6 526
5 190
16 413
1 541
8 508
66 692
2 415
17 073

Northern Europe
Channel Islands (16) .................
Denmark....................................
Estonia.......................................
Faeroe Islands ...........................
Finland (17) ...............................
Iceland.......................................
Ireland .......................................
Isle of Man ................................
Latvia ........................................
Lithuania ...................................
Norway (18) ..............................
Sweden......................................
United Kingdom........................

99 205
153
5 550
1 341
49
5 365
320
4 470
83
2 252
3 324
4 883
9 380
62 036

101 773
154
5 641
1 333
50
5 444
339
4 731
85
2 202
3 242
5 051
9 640
63 861

104 163
155
5 719
1 319
51
5 508
358
4 966
86
2 143
3 157
5 219
9 899
65 582

108 099
153
5 833
1 268
55
5 565
390
5 353
86
2 004
2 963
5 537
10 302
68 589

110 008
148
5 834
1 213
57
5 519
414
5 705
85
1 868
2 764
5 768
10 513
70 121

110 385
140
5 747
1 155
60
5 440
431
6 032
82
1 721
2 547
5 939
10 666
70 425

109 612
132
5 644
1 085
63
5 371
443
6 263
79
1 559
2 309
6 073
10 748
69 843

108 289
124
5 546
1 013
67
5 301
454
6 444
76
1 392
2 070
6 177
10 762
68 863

106 625
118
5 443
944
71
5 218
463
6 643
73
1 235
1 837
6 264
10 753
67 562

104 552
112
5 324
885
76
5 122
471
6 849
71
1 103
1 634
6 311
10 695
65 900

102 330
106
5 200
830
81
5 016
480
7 021
68
987
1 458
6 312
10 602
64 169

Southern Europe
Albania......................................
Andorra .....................................
Bosnia and Herzegovina ...........
Croatia.......................................
Gibraltar ....................................
Greece .......................................
Holy See (19) ............................
Italy ...........................................
Malta .........................................
Montenegro ...............................
Portugal .....................................
San Marino................................
Serbia (20) .................................
Slovenia.....................................
Spain (21) ..................................
TFYR Macedonia (22) ..............

155 171
3 204
85
3 760
4 403
29
11 359
0
60 551
417
631
10 676
32
9 856
2 030
46 077
2 061

157 084
3 270
91
3 721
4 349
29
11 459
0
61 036
424
635
10 715
32
9 825
2 046
47 373
2 077

157 503
3 322
97
3 654
4 278
29
11 478
0
60 749
429
639
10 651
33
9 758
2 047
48 254
2 083

155 719
3 346
109
3 447
4 092
29
11 378
0
59 384
430
638
10 310
33
9 540
2 006
48 924
2 053

151 856
3 253
118
3 158
3 851
28
11 195
0
57 437
419
627
9 813
33
9 219
1 935
48 797
1 974

145 535
3 080
125
2 804
3 574
26
10 857
0
54 658
402
609
9 128
31
8 792
1 837
47 750
1 861

135 262
2 851
129
2 425
3 277
25
10 298
0
50 751
384
585
8 237
30
8 280
1 713
44 558
1 718

123 494
2 581
128
2 045
2 972
23
9 640
0
46 617
362
556
7 295
27
7 706
1 580
40 406
1 555

112 751
2 289
125
1 689
2 676
22
9 005
0
43 086
337
524
6 444
25
7 128
1 449
36 562
1 392

103 234
2 027
118
1 389
2 406
20
8 383
0
39 911
315
493
5 706
23
6 597
1 325
33 276
1 243

94 210
1 831
109
1 148
2 159
19
7 702
0
36 966
297
464
5 028
21
6 100
1 201
30 053
1 112

Georgia (13) ..............................


Iraq ............................................
Israel..........................................
Jordan........................................
Kuwait.......................................
Lebanon.....................................
Occupied Palestinian Terr. (14) .
Oman.........................................
Qatar..........................................
Saudi Arabia..............................
Syrian Arab Rep........................
Turkey .......................................
United Arab Emirates ...............
Yemen .......................................
Europe

182

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division


World Population Prospects: The 2010, Volume 1:Comprehensive Tables

Table A.12. Total population at mid-year by major area, region and country (continued)
constant-fertility variant, 2010-2100
Constant-fertility variant
Population (thousands)
Major area, region and country
Western Europe
Austria.......................................
Belgium.....................................
France........................................
Germany....................................
Liechtenstein .............................
Luxembourg ..............................
Monaco .....................................
Netherlands ...............................
Switzerland ...............................
Latin America and Caribbean

2010

2015

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

189 052
8 394
10 712
62 787
82 302
36
507
35
16 613
7 664

190 148
8 471
10 849
64 376
81 221
37
542
36
16 823
7 794

191 010
8 525
10 951
65 766
80 269
39
573
36
16 968
7 883

190 883
8 536
11 098
68 148
77 386
41
626
36
17 098
7 914

188 456
8 386
11 172
70 060
73 478
42
659
37
16 918
7 706

183 667
8 093
11 134
71 348
68 560
42
667
37
16 445
7 339

177 541
7 675
11 026
72 252
63 064
42
660
38
15 918
6 866

171 923
7 224
10 927
73 110
58 086
41
643
39
15 483
6 369

166 605
6 758
10 819
73 916
53 442
40
619
41
15 076
5 893

160 953
6 255
10 661
74 446
48 879
39
590
43
14 609
5 432

155 004
5 732
10 433
74 649
44 454
36
557
44
14 104
4 995

990 291 1 063 632 1 149 358 1 251 847

590 082

625 994

662 568

733 756

799 945

862 516

924 515

Caribbean
Anguilla.....................................
Antigua and Barbuda ................
Aruba.........................................
Bahamas....................................
Barbados ...................................
British Virgin Islands ................
Cayman Islands.........................
Cuba ..........................................
Dominica...................................
Dominican Rep. ........................
Grenada .....................................
Guadeloupe (23) ........................
Haiti...........................................
Jamaica......................................
Martinique.................................
Montserrat .................................
Netherlands Antilles (24) ..........
Puerto Rico................................
St. Kitts and Nevis ....................
St. Lucia ....................................
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Trinidad and Tobago .................
Turks and Caicos Islands ..........
US Virgin Islands ......................

41 646
15
89
107
343
273
23
56
11 258
68
9 927
104
461
9 993
2 741
406
6
201
3 749
52
174
109
1 341
38
109

43 309
17
93
110
364
276
24
59
11 249
68
10 625
107
472
10 800
2 805
412
6
209
3 752
56
184
110
1 363
41
108

45 103
18
98
111
384
278
26
61
11 214
68
11 336
110
483
11 747
2 870
417
6
213
3 775
59
193
111
1 374
43
107

48 744
19
107
113
418
276
28
63
11 026
70
12 753
112
500
13 921
2 967
421
7
216
3 824
66
210
116
1 358
47
105

52 230
20
114
110
441
267
29
64
10 554
70
14 168
112
507
16 404
2 994
414
7
213
3 844
71
222
122
1 331
50
102

55 790
20
120
105
456
250
30
62
9 811
68
15 599
109
504
19 377
2 969