COMMUNITY ANALYSIS

FORREST, LAMAR & PERRY COUNTIES

Population
2011 Projection 2006 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census Growth 2006-2011 Growth 2000-2006 Growth 1990-2000

Forrest
77,346 75,133 72,604 68,314 2.95% 3.48% 6.28%

Lamar
49,781 44,847 39,070 30,424 11.00% 14.79% 28.42%

Perry
12,357 12,255 12,138 10,865 0.83% 0.96% 11.72%

2006 Population by Age
2006 Est. Median Age 2006 Est. Average Age 31.43 35.11 33.76 35.21 34.80 36.17

Households
2011 Projection 2006 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census Growth 2006-2011 Growth 2000-2006 Growth 1990-2000 29,514 28,474 27,183 25,150 3.65% 4.75% 8.08% 18,802 16,793 14,396 10,883 11.96% 16.65% 32.28% 4,634 4,549 4,420 3,802 1.87% 2.92% 16.25%

2006 Household Size
2006 Est. Average Household Size 2.44 2.64 2.67

2006 Income by Household
Average Family Household Income $54,386 Median Family Household Income $42,054 $75,200 $57,308 $43,676 $37,323

2006 Housing Values
Median Owner-Occupied Value $77,860 $107,488 $56,889

TRADE AREAS
In calculating a trade area, first competing cities were identified. Competing cities are defined as communities whose population or retail sales are 90 percent or larger than the community the trade area is being calculated for. This technique is used to compare communities that offer the same order of goods. Order of goods is a term that refers to the availability of an item within various communities. For example, groceries are available in most every community. Therefore, groceries are in low order of goods. As appliances are not available in every community, this makes appliances a higher order of goods than groceries.

FORREST COUNTY

The geographic size and shape of trade areas were determined by using Reilly’s Law. Reilly’s Law uses population and distance of competing communities to estimate the distance residents will travel to purchase goods and services from a community. Once these distances have been established in several directions, the boundary of the trade area takes its size in these cases square miles, and shape. In order to be more reflective of travel patterns among rural populations who may not use primary arteries for much of their commute, in this study, straight line distances were used in place of highway distances. Reilly’s Law can be modified to determine trade areas based on factors other than population, as was done to determine the trade area based on retail sales. Comparing two areas allows communities to gain understanding as to where competing communities are impinging on their trade area.

LAMAR COUNTY

PERRY COUNTY

TRADE AREA POPULATION
Once the geographic trade area is defined, the trade area population can be determined. This is preformed by removing the urban population from county population to determine how many residents live in rural areas per square mile. The rural residents per square mile are then multiplied times the number of square miles the trade area encompasses within the county and the urban areas within the trade area are added to rural population. This process is repeated for each county the trade area comes into contact with. The individual county portions within the trade area are added to derive at the total trade area population.

FORREST COUNTY
Hattiesburg Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 3,757.39 5,086.76 Trade Area Population 251,306.00 295,198.00

LAMAR COUNTY
Lumberton Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 215.37 77.05 Trade Area Population 14,940.00 6,649.00

Purvis Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 168.67 144.27 Trade Area Population 13,509.62 12,143.02

Sumrall Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 124.93 64.75 Trade Area Population 7,782.00 4,547.92

PERRY COUNTY
Beaumont Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 251.01 112.81 Trade Area Population 5,501.00 3,226.00

New Augusta Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 70.28 42.93 Trade Area Population 1,738.00 1,333.00

Richton Trade Area Size Based on Population Based on Retail Sales 169.08 177.89 Trade Area Population 3,534.00 3,658.00

POTENTIAL SALES & PORTION CAPTURED
Potential sales estimate what local sales would be for a given sector if everyone within the community’s trade area purchased goods and services locally. Spending patterns used to calculate potential sales are based on state spending patterns. Portion captured is simply the percent of potential sales that a community is getting.

LAMAR COUNTY
Lumberton Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Potential Sales $16,007,580 $5,870,339 $17,365,746 $2,002,151 $9,602,996 $17,261,945 $6,967,646 $8,640,202 $5,193,331 $1,975,923 $11,591,358 $288,913 $100,661,984 $102,637,907 Portion Captured 6.3% 0.0% 29.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 14.3%

Purvis Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Potential Sales $15,231,428 $5,585,707 $16,523,741 $1,905,073 $9,137,380 $16,424,973 $6,629,809 $8,221,269 $4,941,524 $1,880,118 $11,029,331 $274,905 $95,781,232 $97,661,350 Portion Captured 67.9% 0.0% 73.5% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 39.9% 25.4% 30.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 38.9% 38.2%

Sumrall Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Potential Sales $10,460,267 $3,836,015 $11,347,770 $1,308,320 $6,275,146 $11,279,941 $4,553,058 $5,646,002 $3,393,619 $1,291,181 $7,574,455 $188,792 $65,778,291 $67,069,472 Portion Captured 33.5% 0.0% 50.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 14.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.0% 27.5%

PERRY COUNTY
Beaumont Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Potential Sales $5,556,487 $2,037,689 $6,027,928 $694,979 $3,333,354 $5,991,897 $2,418,582 $2,999,153 $1,802,688 $685,875 $4,023,546 $100,286 $34,941,386 $35,627,260 Portion Captured 0.0% 0.0% 61.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 17.5%

New Augusta Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Potential Sales $2,437,233 $893,788 $2,644,021 $304,837 $1,462,104 $2,628,217 $1,060,859 $1,315,514 $790,710 $300,844 $1,764,842 $43,988 $15,326,285 $15,627,129 Portion Captured 0.0% 0.0% 136.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.3% 42.5%

Richton Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Potential Sales $5,420,940 $1,987,980 $5,880,880 $678,025 $3,252,038 $5,845,728 $2,359,581 $2,925,990 $1,758,713 $669,143 $3,925,394 $97,840 $34,089,009 $34,758,152 Portion Captured 56.0% 0.0% 127.7% 0.0% 0.0% 46.8% 0.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55.0% 54.0%

TRADE AREA CAPTURE
Trade area capture uses local retail sales for a given sector, state per capita expenditure for the sector, and adjusted relative income for calculations. Trade area capture gives an estimate of the number of customers available for goods and services with a given sector. Because the calculations are based on actual sales and expenditures, the trade area capture is not showing potential customers. Instead, the trade area capture is showing the number of people who are currently purchasing goods and services in the given area.

PULL FACTOR
Pull factors are a tool that allows communities to see where they clearly have an advantage. Pull factors are ratios of the trade area capture and the communities local population. A pull factor above one indicates that a community is capturing a greater number of customers within a given sector than reside within the community. Essentially, the community has an advantage within that sector. A pull factor of less than one indicates that a community does not have an advantage within that sector, given that the communities own residents are not purchasing all goods or services within the sector locally. Thus, a pull factor of less than one shows that there is demand that is not being met by the local economy. Therefore, there may be room in the local economy for expansion of the sector.

FORREST COUNTY
Hattiesburg Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 201,279.38 180,359.90 184,286.10 337,866.48 118,235.36 283,169.76 264,416.85 207,341.35 153,448.20 5,226.60 333,975.24 186,453.55 182,864.06 Pull Factor 2005 4.41 3.95 4.03 7.39 2.59 6.20 5.79 4.54 3.36 0.11 7.31 4.08 4.00

Petal Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 7,574 3,946 17,296 17,312 36,003 17,488 9,749 10,121 770 23,270 15,215 14,922 Pull Factor 2005 0.96 0.50 2.18 2.19 4.55 2.21 1.23 1.28 0.10 2.94 1.92 1.88

LAMAR COUNTY
Lumberton Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 947.50 4,467.71 1,304.27 2,484.84 2,180.80 2,138.82 Pull Factor 2005 0.42 1.98 0.58 1.10 0.97 0.95

Purvis Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 9,172.65 9,927.53 2,965.92 5,391.90 3,426.07 4,086.01 125.93 5,261.56 5,160.27 Pull Factor 2005 4.05 4.39 1.31 2.38 1.51 1.81 0.06 2.33 2.28

Sumrall Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 2,608.46 3,957.46 1,616.30 1,092.78 1,945.75 2,181.83 2,139.83 Pull Factor 2005 2.28 3.47 1.42 0.10 1.70 1.91 1.87

PERRY COUNTY
Beaumont Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 3,405.70 89.50 979.26 960.41 Pull Factor 2005 3.65 0.10 1.05 1.03

New Augusta Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 2,374.67 322.41 752.93 738.44 Pull Factor 2005 3.41 0.46 1.08 1.06

Richton Sector Automotive Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Food and Beverage Furniture and Fixtures Public Utilities Apparel and General Merchandise Lumber and Building Materials Miscellaneous Retail Miscellaneous Services Wholesale Contracting Recreation Total Retail Total for City Population Capture 2005 1,977.90 4,512.49 1,652.42 670.28 1,944.97 1,907.53 Pull Factor 2005 2.06 4.71 1.72 0.70 2.03 1.99

SHIFT SHARE
Shift-share is essentially looking at how competitive one region is compared to a larger region. It emulates a mix of industries and their performance. This compares the growth patterns in our region to a larger region’s (usually the United States) growth patterns. In this study, the regional growth was compared to the state’s growth as the state’s growth patterns are more reflective of local growth patterns than the United States. Shift-share is broken into three different components: The state growth component, industrial mix component and regional shift component. The state growth component is the state growth rate applied to the local level. This determines how many local jobs are attributed to state trends. The industrial mix component is a ratio that compares local growth rates with state growth rates. A positive industrial mix component indicates that the given sector is growing locally at a faster rate than the state. The regional shift component shows jobs that are attributed to its relative competitive position and can be used to identify leading and lagging industries. The sum of all three components is the shift-share, which is essentially the change in employment within the two time periods used in the calculation. Since shift-share was not calculated for every sector of the economy, the total change in shift-share is not the total change in local employment, but rather the total change for the sectors calculated. This information is useful when determining whether rates of growth or decline are from employment mix or local competitiveness.

Forrest County Sector Manufacturing Natural Resources & Mining Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Asst Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Other Service (except Public Admin) Government Education Total State Growth Component -46 -2 -23 -20 -72 -23 -7 -21 -7 -15 -4 -53 -4 -51 -20 -175 -68 -612 Industrial Growth Component 418 19 32 27 180 -17 94 29 -15 -99 -24 -232 29 -74 6 -12 1060 1234 Regional Shift Component -841 24 91 183 262 -579 -107 142 43 615 158 865 -45 835 -106 657 -452 1928 Shift Share 2001-2005 -470 40 100 190 370 -620 -20 150 20 500 130 580 -20 710 -120 470 540 2550

Lamar County Sector Manufacturing Natural Resources & Mining Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Other Service (except Public Admin) Government Education Total Perry County Sector Manufacturing Natural Resources & Mining Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Asst Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Other Service (except Public Admin.) Government Education Total State Growth Component -15 -2 -1 0 -5 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -12 -6 -46 Industrial Growth Component 132 15 1 0 12 0 4 2 0 -1 0 -9 1 -1 0 -1 97 93 Regional Shift Component -238 -13 10 0 23 31 -4 0 -10 1 0 171 -1 -8 0 -77 -41 3 Shift Share 2001-2005 -120 0 10 0 30 30 0 0 -10 0 0 160 0 -10 0 -90 50 50 State Growth Component -19 -3 -14 -3 -52 -6 -4 -7 -3 -6 0 -31 -1 -23 -5 -27 -17 -221 Industrial Growth Component 170 26 18 5 129 -4 51 9 -6 -38 -3 -136 8 -33 2 -2 271 445 Regional Shift Component -191 -33 95 -1 53 -20 -167 118 78 214 23 427 23 467 -6 279 26 1406 Shift Share 2001-2005 -40 -10 100 0 130 -30 -120 120 70 170 20 260 30 410 -10 250 280 1630

LOCATION QUOTIENTS
Location quotients are used to determine the degree of self-sufficiency of various sectors of the local economy. This is done by analyzing the sector employment to total employment as they relate to a larger geographic area such as the state. A location quotient greater than one indicates that the community is self-sufficient within a given sector and has the ability to other markets.
Forrest County Sector Manufacturing Natural Resources & Mining Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertain & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Other Service (except Public Admin) Government Education Total Location Quotient 0.40 0.62 0.90 1.20 1.04 0.53 0.87 1.28 1.17 0.50 0.73 1.10 0.52 1.05 0.91 1.40 1.70 1.00

Lamar County Sector Manufacturing Natural Resources & Mining Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Other Service (except Public Admin) Government Education Total Perry County Sector Manufacturing Natural Resources & Mining Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Asst Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation & Food Service Other Service (except Public Admin.) Government Education Total Location Quotient 2005 1.86 5.28 0.48 0.98 0.44 0.58 0.85 0.05 1.14 0.33 0.19 0.44 1.13 2.17 1.00 Location 0.50 1.73 1.44 0.49 1.90 0.53 0.66 1.22 1.55 0.48 0.25 1.64 0.62 1.32 0.69 0.64 1.28 1.00

CONCLUSION
When reviewing a community analysis it is important to understand the methodology behind the numbers. Only when the methodology is understood do the numbers really become useful. Economic development theories can only produce estimations based on assumptions. Also, the purpose of these indicators is not intended to show where a community is going wrong. They are intended to show where communities currently have an advantage and areas where there is room for potential growth.

DATA SOURCES
• Employment- Data from The Mississippi Department of Employment Security’s Annual Averages historical data series was utilized to provide employment data. • Geographic Data- Geographic size and distances were calculated using DeLorme’s 2006 version of Street Atlas USA. • Population and Income- The source for all population and income data was DemographicsNow, a web based demographic software package. • Retail Sales- Retail sales data for all was compiled from The Mississippi State Tax Commission’s 2005 Annual Report. **PS-Hattiesburg- Because the study used very broad sectors of the economy and the potential sales formula assumes that everyone within the trade area will purchase all goods and services within that community, potential sales were not calculated for the Hattiesburg trade area. Doing so would assume residents of the trade area would not purchase lower order goods from their local communities. **Retail Sales Data-Hattiesburg- However, because of the geographic size of the retail trade area, information on communities located out of the state of Mississippi were required to calculate Hattiesburg’s retail trade area. To determine the retail trade area size for the City of Hattiesburg retail sales figures from Sales and Marketing Management 2005 Survey of Buying Power and Media Markets was used.

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