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Planning Commission

Government of India
Designed & Printed at: Viba Press Pvt. Ltd., Okhla, New Delhi
Contact: 9810049515
The Final Report of the Expert Group on
Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth
iii
v
Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth
Composition of the Expert Group
1. Kirit Parikh Chairman
2. Nitin Desai Member
3. Ajay Mathur Member
4. Jamshyd N. Godrej Member
5. Chandrajit Banerjee Member
6. Ritu Mathur Member
7. Anshu Bharadwaj Member
8. Anand Patwardhan Member
9. Arunavo Mukerjee Member
10. Jagdish Kishwan Member
11. Tulsi Tanti Member
12. Pavan Goenka Member
13. Jyotirmay Mathur Member
14. Rita Roy Choudhury Member
15. Indrani Chandrasekhran Member
16. Varad Pande Member
17. U. Sankar Member
18. S.C. Sharma Member
19. S.S. Krishnan Member
20. Arunish Chawla Member-Secretary
In addition, representatives of Ministry of Power, New and Renewable Energy, Environment and Forest, Road
Transport and Highways, Railways, Urban Development, Coal, Petroleum, Agriculture, Industrial Policy and
Promotion, Central Electricity Authority, NTPC etc. took part in the deliberations of the Expert Group.
Terms of Reference of the Expert Group
1. Review existing studies on low carbon growth/low carbon pathways for India prepared by various
organizations
2. Conduct further analysis, as required, to assess low carbon options for the Indian Economy
3. Present a report outlining the roadmap for India for low carbon growth. This would include the following:-
i. An evaluation of some key alternative low carbon options with an analysis of their cost-beneft, and
relative merits and demerits
ii. An Action Plan comprising of critical low carbon initiatives to be undertaken, including sector-specifc
initiatives, along with a suggested timeline and targets starting 2011, that can feed into the Twelfth Plan
process.
iii. List of enabling legislations, rules or policies required to operationalize the low carbon roadmap.
4. The Expert Group shall submit its Report to the Planning Commission.
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Preface
The Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth was set up by the Planning
Commission to suggest low carbon pathways consistent with inclusive growth. The Expert Group
submited its Interim Report in May 2011. The group also made contributons to the Twelfh Five
Year Plan and is now presentng the Final Report.
As is well known, India is one of the lowest emiters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the world
on per capita basis. At 1.4 tCO
2
/person in 2010, Indias emissions were less than one third of
world average of 4.5 tCO
2
/person, less than one fourth that of China and one twelfh that of the
US. Yet, India is highly vulnerable to climate change, and has an interest in a fair and equitable
global compact to minimise the risk of climate change. Climate change is already an existng
threat, manifestng itself in the form of increased frequencies and intensites of extreme events.
There is a need for urgent acton at the global level, which is why India has promised to keep
its per capita emissions below the per capita emissions of industrialised countries. India has
also prepared a natonal acton plan for climate change and said that it will reduce the emission
intensity of its GDP by 20 to 25 percent, over 2005 levels, by 2020. These measures are taken in
the hope that they will encourage countries to arrive at a global agreement.
The Interim Report of the Expert Group, which provided a menu of optons, had shown that it is
possible for India to reduce its emission intensity by 20-25 percent over 2005 levels by the year
2020. This Final Report provides a more detailed and longer term assessment of these optons,
and the macro-economic and welfare implicatons of the low carbon strategy.
In the low carbon strategy described here, we have given high priority to inclusive growth. It is
possible for India to atain high level of human wellbeing. The pursuit of low carbon development
is consistent with growth and inclusion. In the low carbon strategy, energy efciencies in
households, buildings, industry and transport play important roles. At the same tme low carbon
supply technologies, such as solar and wind in the power sector, and greater use of public
transport and non-motorized transport are critcal. Increased sequestraton through enlarged
green cover through Green India Mission also helps.
Nevertheless, unless a dramatc reducton in the cost of renewable energy takes place, the
expansion of renewable capacites requires additonal investment in the power sector. Thus, less
investment will be available for other sectors resultng in lower GDP. Of course, there are other
benefts of low carbon strategy such as reduced local environmental polluton and reduced
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dependence on imported energy. However, valuaton of these benefts, which has not been done
here, may suggest that even with lower GDP, the low carbon strategy is worth pursuing.
The monetary value of the loss in GDP, however, is sizeable. External resources required to put
Indian economy back on the same growth path are far in excess of the size of climate fund that
is currently being talked about.
In preparing this report many have contributed in varying degrees. Some have worked hard and
made major contributons. It is my pleasure to partcularly thank them. Among these are, in
no partcular order, Arunish Chawla, member-secretary of the group for his passion, interest,
involvement, commitment and support throughout the long period that it has taken to prepare
this fnal report; Probal Ghosh of IRADe for bearing the brunt of the modelling; Ajay Mathur of
the Bureau of Energy Efciency for his support in diferent chapters on energy efciency; Anshu
Bhardwaj, S. S. Krishnan, Nihit Goyal, Mohamad Sahil of CSTEP for contributons to chapters
on industry, power and development implicaton; Ritu Mathur and Sarbojit Pal of TERI for
contributng to the chapter on transport, Anand Patwardhan and Indrani Chandrashekharan for
their contributons to introducton and development linkages; Varad Pande for his contributon
to policy recommendatons; Jagdish Kishwan for his contributon to chapter on Green India
Mission; Jyotrmay Mathur for his contributon to the buildings chapter; Rita Roy Choudhury
of FICCI for her contributon to policy recommendatons, and Jayeeta Bhadra of IRADe for her
contributons to the household energy efciency chapter. I would also like to thank the team
of young professionals in the Planning Commission namely Ami Misra, Poorvi Goel and Urvana
Menon for their hard work in putng together this Final Report.
Apart from them, other members of the Expert Group have given many useful suggestons and
have contributed to this report. I thank them all.
Kirit Parikh
Chairman
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Table of Contents
Foreward ...................................................................................................................................................iii
Expert Group Compositon .........................................................................................................................v
Preface .....................................................................................................................................................vii
Conversion Tables ......................................................................................................................................xi
Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................ xiii
Executve Summary ................................................................................................................................... 1
1 Introducton ........................................................................................................................................ 5
2 Macro Model: Low Carbon, Inclusive Growth .................................................................................... 21
3 Energy Efciency in Households ......................................................................................................... 36
4 Energy Efciency in Buildings ............................................................................................................ 47
5 Energy Efciency in Industry ............................................................................................................. 56
6 Transport ........................................................................................................................................... 64
7 Power ................................................................................................................................................ 84
8 Carbon Sequestraton ....................................................................................................................... 94
9 Development Linkages .....................................................................................................................101
10 Policy Recommendatons .................................................................................................................114
x
xi
Conversion Tables
Calorifc Values, Units and Conversion Factors
Calorifc Value of Various Fuels
Sl. No. Name of Fuel Unit Calorifc Value (kilo-calories)
1. Biogas M3 4713
2. Kerosene kg 10638
3. Firewood kg 4500
4. Cow-dung Cakes kg 2100
5. Coal kg 4000
6. Lignite kg 2865
7. Charcoal kg 6930
8. Sof coke kg 6292
9. Oil kg 10000
10. LPG kg 11300
11. Furnace Oil kg 9041
12. Coal gas m3 4004
13. Natural gas m3 9000
14. Electricity kWh 860
Conversion Factors
Kilo Calorie 3.96832 BTU, 4186.8 Joules
Kilowat Hour 3412.14 BTU, 3.6x106 Joules
Btu 0.252 Kilo Cal, 1.055 Kilo Joules
US Gallon 0.833 Imperial Gallon, 0.134 Cu. Feet 0.00378 Cu.M
Imperial Gallon 1.2009 US Gallon, 0.1605 Cu. Feet 0.0045 Cu.M
Cubic Metres 264.172 US Gallons, 219.969 Imperial Gallons, 35.3147 Cu. Feet
Cubic Feet 7.4805 US Gallons, 6.2288 Imperial Gallons, 0.0283 Cu. M
1 BkWh Hydro, Solar or Wind Electricity 0.086 Mtoe*
1 BkWh Nuclear Electricity 0.261 Mtoe
1Mt of Coal 0.41 Mtoe
1 Mt of Lignite 0.2865 Mtoe
1 Billion Cubic Meter of Gas 0.9 Mtoe
1 Mt of LNG 1.23 Mtoe
1 Mt of Fuel wood 0.45 Mtoe
1 Mt of Dung Cake 0.21 Mtoe
*Mtoe conversion factors are taken as per Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA) Practce
Crude Oil Tonnes (Metric) Kilolitres Barrels US Gallons
Tonnes (Metric) 1 1.165 7.33 307.86
Kilolitres 0.8581 1 6.2898 264.17
Barrels 0.1364 0.159 1 42
US Gallons 0.0032 0.0038 0.0238 1
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Natural Gas B Cu. M-NG B Cu. Feet-NG MTOE MT-LNG Trillion BTU
Million Barrels
of Oil
B Cu. M 1 35.3 0.9 0.73 36 6.29
B Cu. Feet 0.028 1 0.026 0.021 1.03 0.18
Mtoe 1.111 39.2 1 0.805 40.4 7.33
MT-LNG 1.38 48.7 1.23 1 52.0 8.68
Trillion Btu 0.028 0.98 0.025 0.02 1 0.17
Million Barrels of Oil 0.16 5.61 0.14 0.12 5.8 1
Units
Units Name Remarks
BCM Billion Cubic Meter = 109 m3
BkWh Billion Kilowat Hours
Bt Billion Tonne = 109 Tonne
GWe Giga Wat Electrical
GW-Yr Giga Wat Year = 8.76 x 109 kWh
kcal Kilo Calorie = 4186.8 J or 396832 Btu
kg Kilogram -
kgoe Kilogram of Oil Equivalent -
kW Kilo Wat = 103 Wat
kWh Kilo Wat Hour = 3.6x103 J, also expressed as Unit
M. ha Million hectares
M. ltrs Million litres
MMBtu Million Britsh Thermal Unit Traditonal Britsh unit
MMscmd Million Standard Cubic Meters per Day Traditonal unit used in gas industry
Mt Million Tonnes = 106 Tonne
Mtoe Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent -
MVA Million Volt Amperes
MW Mega Wat = 106 Wat or 103 kW
MWe Mega Wat Electrical
MWt Mega Wat Thermal
T Tonne Same as Metric Ton = 1000 kg
tkm Tonne Kilometer tonne of material moved by km
TWH Terawat Hour
Emission Factors
Coal and Lignite 1.614 tonne of CO2 per tonne of Indian Coal & Lignite mix
Crude Oil 0.175 tonne of CO2 per tonne of crude oil refned
Petroleum Products 3.102 tonne of CO2 per tonne
Natural Gas 0.002 tonne of CO2 per cubic metre
Cement 0.451 tonne of CO2 per tonne
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Acronyms
AEEI Autonomous Energy Effciency
Improvement
AD Accelerated Depreciation
AERB Atomic Energy Regulation Board
AR Assessment Report
ASHRAE American Society of Heating,
Refrigerating and Air Conditioning
Engineers
BEE Bureau of Energy Effciency
BIG Baseline Inclusive Growth
BLY Bachat Lamp Yojana
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAIT Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CERC Central Electricity Regulatory
Commission
CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp
CH4 Methane
CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
CN Conservation
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
CS Carbon Sequestration
CSC Convention on Supplementary
Compensation
CSP Concentrated Solar Power
CSR Corporate Social Responsibility
CSTEP Center for Study of Science,
Technology and Policy
CWET Center for Wind Energy Technologies
DAE Department of Atomic Energy
DC Designated Consumer
DCR Domestic Content Requirement
DISCOM Distribution Company
DSM Demand Side Management
EAF Electric Arc Furnace
EC Act Energy Conversation Act
ECBC Energy Conservation Building Code
EE Energy Effciency
EEFP Energy Effciency Financing Platform
EPRI Electric Power Research Institute
ESCOs Expert Energy Service Companies
ESS Energy Storage Systems
FAR Floor Area Ratio
FDA Forest Development Agency
FDs Forests Departments
FEEED Framework for Energy Effcient
Economic Development
FSA Fuel Supply Agreement
FY Fiscal Year
GBI Generation Based Incentive
GCal/tcs giga calories per tonne of crude steel
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GHGs Green House Gases
GIM Green India Mission
GIZ Gesellschaft fr Internationale
Zusammenarbeit
GRIHA Green Rating for Integrated Habitat
Assessment
HVAC Heating Ventilation and Air
Conditioning
IEA International Energy Agency
IEP Integrated Energy Policy
IGBC Indian Green Building Council
IL Incandescent Lamp
INCCA Indian Network on Climate Change
Assessment
IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
IPP Independent Power Producers
IRADe Integrated Research for Action and
Development
IT Information Technology
JFMC Joint Forest Management Committee
JNNSM Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar
Mission
JNNURM Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban
Renewal Mission
kCal/ kg kilo calorie per kilogram
kVA kilo Volt Ampere
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt-hour
kWh/sq.m/year Kilowatt hour per square metre per year
LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratories
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LCIG Low Carbon Inclusive Growth
LCoE Levelised Cost of Energy
LED Light Emitting Diode
LPG Liquefed Petroleum Gas
LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and
Forestry
LWR Light Water Reactor
M&E Framework Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
MDF Medium Dense Forests
MEDA Maharashtra Energy Development
Agency
MNIT Malaviya National Institute of
Technology
MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
MoP Ministry of Power
MoRTH Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways
MPCE Monthly Per Capita Consumer
Expenditure
MSME Micro Small and Medium Enterprise
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
MT Million Tonnes
MtCO2 Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide
MTEE Market Transformation for Energy
Effciency
MTOE Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
MW megaWatt
N2O Nitrous Oxide
NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
Actions
NAPCC National Action Plan for Climate
Change
NATCOM National Communication (to the United
Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change)
NCAER National Council of Applied Economic
Research
NCDMA National Clean Development
Mechanism Authority
NEW North East West
NIMZ National Investment and Manufacturing
Zones
Nox Nitrogen Oxides
NSS National Sample Survey
NTFP Non Timber Forest Produce
NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation
NWM National Wind Mission
OF Open Forests
PAs Protected Areas
PAT Perform Achieve and Trade
PGCIL Power Grid Corporation of India
Limited
PHS Pumped Hydroelectric Systems
PHWR Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors
PPP Public Private Partnerships
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
PSUs Public Sector Undertakings
PV Photo-Voltaic
QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways
REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation
RGGVY Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran
Yojana
RHI Renewable Heat Incentive
SCEF State Clean Energy Fund
SEC Specifc Energy Consumption
SERC State Energy Regulatory Commission
SEZs Special Economic Zones
SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises
SMF Sustainable Management of Forests
SOx Sulphur Oxides
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
T/m3/Day tonnes per metric cube per day
T/tcs tonnes per tonne of crude steel
tCO2/tcs tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of
crude steel
TEPCo Tokyo Electric Power Co
TERI The Energy and Resources Institute
TPD tonnes per day
TPES Total Primary Energy Supply
UNEP United Nations Environment Program
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change
USD-INR United States Dollar - Indian National
Rupee
VDF Very Dense Forests
VGF Viability Gap Funding
VSS Van Samrakshana Samiti
WGI Worldwide Governance Indicators
WRI World Resource Institute
1
Executive Summary
There is near consensus among the scientifc
community that ongoing global warming is an
anthropogenic phenomenon, a result of carbon
intensive activities since the industrial revolution.
However, different countries are at different stages
of development, and have had different emission
trajectories in the past. On a per capita basis, India
is one of the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases in
the world, yet it is threatened by the impact of global
warming and climate change.
As per NATCOM 2007, India emitted 1,728 million
tonnes CO
2
equivalent of greenhouse gases, making
it the sixth largest emitter of greenhouse gases in
the world. India is, however, conscious of its global
responsibility, and in December 2009, it announced
that it would reduce the emissions intensity of its
GDP by 20 to 25 percent, over the 2005 levels, by
the year 2020. This voluntary commitment, which
India has made to the international community, shows
Indias resolve to ensure that its growth process is
sustainable and based on low carbon principles. With
the approval of the Twelfth Five Plan by the National
Development Council, sustainability has become an
integral part of Indias growth policy at both central
and state levels.
The Expert Group on Low Carbon Strategies for
Inclusive Growth has evolved a macro-model to
fully elucidate the inter-sectoral implications of
different mitigation measures and ensure that the low
carbon strategies being recommended are mutually
consistent with each other. The Low Carbon Growth
Model is a multi-sectoral, dynamic optimization
model that maximizes present discounted value of
private consumption subject to commodity supply,
natural resource and technology constraints. The
Expert Group takes the year 2007, for which Indias
offcial greenhouse gas inventory is available, as the
base year, and makes projections going forward up to
the year 2030.
The Model output is summarized through two end-
point scenarios: the BIG (Baseline, Inclusive Growth)
and the LCIG (Low Carbon, Inclusive Growth).
While inclusive actions remain unchanged between
the two scenarios, low carbon strategies span the
vector space between them. Pursuit of Low Carbon
Strategies brings down the average GDP growth
rate by 0.15 percentage points, while per capita CO
2

emissions (in 2030) fall from 3.6 tonnes per person in
the BIG scenario to 2.6 tonnes per person in the LCIG
scenario. However, in both the scenarios, the total
carbon emissions continue to rise up to the year 2030.
The cumulative costs of low carbon strategies have
been estimated to be around 834 Billion US dollars at
2011 prices, over the two decades between 2010 and
2030. While total power demand remains unchanged
between the two scenarios, emission intensity of GDP
declines by 22 percent, over 2007 levels (by 2030)
in the BIG scenario, as compared to 42 percent, over
2007 levels (by 2030) in the LCIG scenario. Further,
due to a massive change in the energy mix by 2030,
demand for coal comes down from 1,568 Mt in the
BIG to 1,278 Mt in the LCIG scenario, demand for
crude oil comes down from 406 Mt in the BIG to
330 Mt in the LCIG scenario, while demand for gas
marginally rises from 187 bcm in the BIG to 208 bcm
in the LCIG scenario. At the same time, the installed
wind and solar power capacities need to be increased
to 118 GW and 110 GW respectively, by the year
2030, in the LCIG scenario.
The sectoral chapters focus on a more detailed analysis
of the low carbon strategies that are in line with the
LCIG scenario. The residential and commercial sector
2
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
has grown rapidly over the past ffteen years, as an
upshot of increasing population and income. Lighting
and appliances in households (such as refrigerators,
air conditions, water heaters, fans, etc.) account for
10 percent; while residential and commercial sectors
together account for 29 percent of the total electricity
consumption. As accelerating urbanization takes
urban population to 600 million plus by 2030, demand
for electricity will rise. In order to improve energy
effciency in the use of power, the Bureau of Energy
Effciency (BEE) periodically mandates regulatory
standards, and also formulates promotional schemes,
which encourage the use of effcient lighting,
heating, ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC), and
electric motor based appliances in the residential and
commercial establishments across the country.
Construction is the second largest economic activity
in India that contributes around 8 percent to the
nation's GDP. It has been estimated that 70 percent
of the building stock in the year 2030 would be
built during the period 2011 to 2030. The Energy
Conservation Building Code specifes the energy
performance requirement of commercial buildings in
India. The analysis here estimates carbon abatement
potential, by appropriating this code into the proposed
construction of buildings, to help reduce the need for
lighting, heating, ventilation and air conditioning.
The likely opportunities for reduction in emissions
intensity are based on the projected ECBC complaint
built-up space, existing as well as new, by the year
2030. The Expert Group emphasizes the importance
of creating a policy environment that incentivizes
builders and owners alike, to opt for energy effcient
options in their buildings. Some incentives to promote
uptake of green buildings and alternative options to
fnance such projects have also been recommended.
The industry sector presents an opportunity for
considerable energy savings, in the iron and steel,
and cement sectors, which are the most energy
intensive manufacturing sectors in the country.
In Cement, use of high effciency crushers and
cooling fans, control of operations of kilns,
installation of air-lifts with bucket elevators etc.,
have reduced displacement of particulate matter
in the atmosphere and contribute to saving both
energy and time. Additionally, in Iron and Steel,
several energy effcient options like coke dry
quenching, recovery of blast furnace gas and
preheating of scraps have been introduced, that are
also economically feasible. The main policy driver,
the National Manufacturing Policy coupled with
National Mission on Enhanced Energy Effciency
(NMEEE), has introduced the Perform, Achieve
and Trade (PAT) scheme, which is estimated to lead
to a cumulative energy savings of 6.7 Mtoe in the
frst round of the PAT cycle by 2015. An Energy
Conservation Fund for promoting energy effciency
measures in the industry is also being explored as an
alternative to PAT, as the former will addresses the
latters shortcomings of coverage and simplicity.
The transport sector accounts for more than half
of Indias petroleum consumption, and a quarter of
the overall energy needs. It is estimated that this
demand will increase further with increasing socio-
economic mobility of the population. A bottom-up
approach is used to examine fuel use and emissions
from the transport sector. Projections have been
divided into two categories, namely, freight and
passenger transport. Subsequently, an array of
options is presented for road, rail, air and other modal
categories. The primary focus is on increasing the
effciency of railways to increase its modal share of
both passenger and freight transport, for example,
by increasing the frequency of semi-high-speed
trains for inter-city transport and by creating six
dedicated freight corridors along the major routes.
Other means to improve energy effciency in the
transport sector include enhanced uptake of the
public transport, promoting alternatives fuels such
as CNG, electric/hybrid mobility and improving
the fuel effciency of both light and heavy vehicles.
The power sector in India has to provide for the
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
dynamic needs of a fast growing economy. Despite
this growing demand, it is estimated that in the LCIG
scenario, India could keep its electricity requirement
down to 3,200 Billion kWh by 2030 (less than an
earlier fgure of 3,600 Billion kWh projected in the
Twelfth Five Year Plan Document). Coal will continue
to be the dominant source of power, and even in the
LCIG scenario, will have a 65 percent stake in power
generation. However, super-critical coal plants, which
presently account for only 6-7 percent of the installed
coal based generation capacity, should account for
more than half of such capacity by the year 2030. The
focus in this Report is on policy measures, including
grid integration of renewable power, to reduce the
usage of fossil fuels in power generation. Nuclear and
Hydro power needs to be pursued with greater vigour,
even though there are feasibility constraints. The aim
should be that at least one-third of power generation
by 2030 is fossil free.
The discussion on advancing the integration of
renewable sources of power is primarily focused on
wind and solar power, which are inherently variable,
and therefore, non-dispatchable. Integration of large
scale wind and solar power requires additional
technologies, which can ensure smooth grid operation.
The policy framework that combines the use of smart
grids with improved energy storage, while enhancing
the fexibility of base load power systems, is also an
urgent need of the hour.
Forests are a signifcant part of the carbon cycle. A
carbon sink absorbs CO
2
from the atmosphere and
stores it as carbon. In the case of a growing forest,
carbon storage takes place in the form of wood, other
vegetation and soil carbon. Investment in this sector
not only increases the carbon sink, but also contributes
to the national GDP. The mitigation efforts discussed
for increasing the sequestration potential of forests are
multi-pronged, involving sustainable management,
conservation and improvement in the density of
existing forests, facilitation of wood products use
management and promoting effciency in the use
of fuel-wood at rural homes. Government of India
needs to allocate more resources to the Green India
Mission to enhance the stock of growing forests, and
to improve the provisioning of ecosystem goods and
services in the country.
As far as implementation is concerned, a two pronged
strategy is recommended; frst, that chases the explicit
low carbon targets, and second, that combines policy
instruments like energy pricing, carbon tax, cap-
and-trade, subsidies and regulation in the right mix.
Since low carbon strategies are multi-sectoral and
inter-disciplinary in nature, a body like the Planning
Commission, whose mandate is to formulate growth
policy and coordinate it across the Central Ministries
and the States, is best placed to periodically monitor
the achievement of these targets, and to place it before
the Union Cabinet for information and direction. The
Expert Group strongly recommends that this should
be done on a yearly basis.
As the Expert Group becomes functus offcio, it
leaves behind, a new model of growth policy, which
incorporates faster, inclusive and sustainable growth
in an integrated framework. Domestic policymakers
and negotiators alike, will need to revisit and rerun
this model, to better understand, in an endogenous
framework, the growth and development implications
of any proposed low carbon strategy, as also to
monitor the achievement of low carbon targets from
time to time.
5
1.1 The Background
The Planning Commission set up an Expert Group,
ahead of the Twelfth Five Year Plan, to advise and
help evolve low carbon strategies for inclusive
growth. In May 2011, the Expert Group submitted its
Interim Report. The Interim Report outlined a menu
of options that could help reduce Indias emissions
intensity by 25 percent over the 2005 levels, by 2020.
The Expert Group also contributed to the sustainable
development chapter of the Twelfth Five Year Plan.
The Final Report builds on, and takes further forward,
the growth policy outlined in the Twelfth Five Year
Plan, namely of faster, more inclusive and sustainable
growth.
There is a growing concern about climate change
in the world. Despite India being among the lowest
emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs), in per capita
terms, it is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate
change. And this impact is not just a concern of the
distant future! An increased frequency and intensity of
extreme natural conditions such as storms, cyclones,
longer dry spells, erratic rainfall, etc. is already
perceptible today (See Box 1.1). Even though it may
not be possible to unequivocally attribute extreme
natural events to climate change, it is now widely
accepted by the scientifc community that climate
change will increase the frequency and intensity of
these extreme events in the future. An effective global
compact to minimize climate change is, therefore, of
utmost importance to all countries, including India.
The inculcation of a low carbon strategy, in our
already inclusive growth policy, will lend weight to
Indias voice at an international level.
This Report is organised as follows: Chapter 2 is
an analysis of options and outcomes in a macro-
economic model that combines bottom-up and
top-down approaches gauging different policy
options in a mutually consistent manner. Chapters
3, 4, 5 and 6 explore individual policy options, and
the scope of reducing energy use and emissions
in households, buildings, industry and transport
sectors respectively. Chapter 7 examines the
absorption feasibility of the power supply options
proposed in the macro-model. It also explores the
problems of expanding capacities of renewable
power based on solar and wind energy. Chapter
8 outlines the Green India Mission to assess the
extent of carbon sequestration. Chapter 9 examines
the consequences, co-benefts and risks of the
proposed low carbon strategy. Finally, Chapter 10
provides a summary of all the chapters and policy
conclusions.
1 Introduction
Box 1.1: Observed Changes in Climate
Biophysical alteratons, coupled with instances of socio-economic repercussions as consequences of climate
change are being observed with increasing frequency.
Human and natural systems are being afected by climate change. The phenomenon of warming has been observed
throughout Asia, with Northern regions having the fastest escalaton in temperatures on the planet. Precipitaton
trends vary geographically, with a more frequent but weaker Indian monsoon (WGI AR5 Chapter 14.7.10). The
degradaton of permafrost occurring across its current distributon in Siberia, Central Asia and on the Tibetan Plateau
is among the most widespread impacts of climate change in Asia. This can be correlated to observatons from other
parts of the world, explained by warming to a high degree. Substantal new evidence has been collected since AR4 on
glaciers in Asia. Across most of Asia, glaciers have been shrinking except for some areas in the Karakorum and Pamir.
In spite of changing socio-economic factors taking precedence over the direct impact of climate change for managed
6
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
1.2 Current State of Knowledge on
Climate Change
1.2.1 Global Picture: Current Trends of
Emissions and Projected Climate Change
Although the international community has adopted
a target of limiting anthropogenic global warming
to below 2 degree Celsius by the year 2100, current
projections and trends of greenhouse gas emissions
indicate that achievement of this goal appears unlikely.
In fact, many recent assessments suggest that we are
already on the track for a 4 degree Celsius world.
The IEAs World Energy Outlook 2012 indicates
that global mean warming above the pre-industrial
level would approach 3.8 degree Celsius by 2100.
In this assessment; there is a 40 percent chance of
warming exceeding 4 degrees Celsius by 2100,
and a 10 percent chance of exceeding 5 degree
Celsius.
Estimates of emissions from the most recent
generation of energy-economic models suggest
that, in the absence of further substantial policy
action (business as usual), median temperature
projections could lead to a warming of 4.7 degree
Celsius above the pre-industrial level by 2100,
with a 40 percent chance of exceeding 5 degrees
Celsius.
The updated UNEP Emissions Gap Assessment,
released in Doha in December 2012, found that
present emission trends and pledges are consistent
with emission pathways that reach warming in
the range of 3 degree Celsius to 5 degree Celsius
by 2100, with the global emissions estimate for
2020, closest to levels consistent with a 3.5/4
degree Celsius pathway.
1.2.2 What are the Conditions Required for a
2 degree Celsius Target?
It should be noted that, from a geophysical perspective,
a 2 degree Celsius target is still feasible. However,
achieving this target requires that cumulative global
greenhouse gas emissions need to be kept within a
limit (Meinshausen et al. 2009), and global emissions
need to start declining by 2020 for most of the cases
to eventually reach a near zero mark (Rogelj et al.
2011). This would require deploying tens of terawatts
of carbon free energy in the next few decades, which
can only happen with a fundamental and disruptive
overhaul of the global energy system.
ecosystems and human systems, the events being experienced with accountng for changes in technology, other non-
climate factors and agricultural crop yields appear to have changed in many regions as a result of climate change.
Aufammer et al., (2006) compared predicted rice yields in India using climate model simulatons of temperature
for the late 20th century with yields estmated from observed temperatures between the years 1930-1960, using the
later period as a surrogate for climate without recent changes in greenhouse gases. They found that rice yields in a
world without greenhouse gas emissions would have been signifcantly higher, thus atributng the negatve impact
to emissions. The detected impact of elevated Ozone, with reductons estmated at roughly 10 percent for wheat and
soy, and 3 5 percent for maize and rice (Van Dingenen et al., 2009), was most signifcant for India and China; but,
this was also found to be true for soybean producton in the United States in recent decades (Fishman et al., 2010).
There is a small but growing literature on the atributon of specifc hydrometeorological events to anthropogenic
climate change, thus creatng the possibility of linking observed socio-economic outcomes and consequences to
climate change. Recent modelling studies have atempted to link observed events (such as fooding events in the UK/
Pakistan and heat waves in Europe/ Russia) to anthropogenic climate change. While such detecton and atributon
studies are stll at an early stage, they raise the probability of linking socio-economic outcomes (loss and damage)
to climate change. As Tren berth (2012) points out, even if it is not possible to atribute a partcular weather event
exclusively to global warming; all weather events are afected by climate change because the environment in which
they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be, due to anthropogenic forcing in the post-industrial revoluton
era.
7
INTRODUCTION
Current scientifc understanding therefore makes it
clear that the window of opportunity for achieving
a 2degree Celsius target is narrow and shrinking
rapidly. Action taken in this decade will be of critical
importance, in determining the trajectory of future
emissions, and the consequent global warming. Delay
will lead to greater stringency and costs of mitigation
in the long run.
1.2.3 What are the Implications of Current
Emissions and Radiative Forcing Trends?
Despite the global community striving to achieve the
2 degree Celsius target, the current trends indicate
that we will experience a world with signifcantly
greater levels of warming. It is, therefore, critical to
assess the impact of climate change outcomes. As
an input for the IPCCs ffth assessment report, the
climate science community has carried out a major
model inter-comparison project called CMIP5 (K.
E. Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, 2011) to develop
climate change projections for four different
radiative forcing pathways that were designed to
refect the range of future global emissions. The
four representative concentration pathways (or
RCPs) correspond to radiative forcing levels of
2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 W/m2 by the end of the century.
Higher the concentration of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) in the atmosphere, higher is the radiative
forcing. The RCP 2.6 pathway is considered to
be generally consistent with the 2 degree Celsius
target in the sense that this level of forcing typically
leads to global mean temperature change remaining
below 2 degree Celsius. The RCP 8.5 pathway
is the high forcing pathway, and is generally
associated with the current business-as-usual
emissions trajectory. From a risk management
and climate change adaptation perspective, the
RCP 8.5 pathway is important, because it refects
the kind of climate change outcomes that may be
experienced in the absence of mitigation actions.
Therefore, in the subsequent material, we review
the projections associated with RCP 2.6 and RCP
8.5 pathways,which represent the lower and upper
bounds of the range of possible climate change
outcomes.
Temperature
Under the RCP 2.6 pathway, global land surface
temperatures for boreal summer peak is estimated
to be about 2 degree Celsius above the baseline of
1951-1980, by the year 2050, and will remain at this
level until the end of the century. The high emission
RCP 8.5 pathway leads to a temperature trajectory
similar to that of the RCP 2.6 pathway until 2020,
but starts to deviate strongly upwards after 2030.
Warming continues to increase until the end of the
century with global mean land surface temperature
for boreal summer reaching 6.5 degree Celsius
above the baseline of 1951-1980 by the year 2100.
Under RCP 8.5, the temperature in tropical regions
increases by a very high degree (beyond the 90th
percentile, Sillmann & Kharin, 2013 a) for more than
300 consecutive days creating a year-long duration of
warm spells.
Extremes that represent an exceedance above a
particular percentile threshold derived from natural
variability show the highest increase in tropical
regions, where inter-annual temperature variability
is relatively small. Both ecosystems and human
infrastructure typically adapt to the local climatic
conditions and its historic variations; hence, even
a relatively small change in the temperature of
the tropics can have a relatively large impact. The
annual frequency of warm nights beyond the 90
th

percentile increases to between 50 percent and 95
percent, depending on the region, by the end of the
century under the RCP 8.5 pathway (Sillmann &
Kharin, 2013b). Under RCP 2.6, the frequencies of
warm nights remain limited to between 20 percent
and 60 percent, with the highest increases in tropical
Southeast Asia and the Amazon region (Sillmann &
18 Kharin, 2013b).
Precipitation
On a global scale, total wet day precipitation and
maximum fve day precipitation, are robustly projected
to increase by 10 and 20 percent respectively under
RCP 8.5 (Sillmann & Kharin, 2013b). Regionally,
the number of consecutive dry days is expected to
increase in sub-tropical regions, and decrease in
8
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
tropical and near-Arctic regions (Sillmann & Kharin,
2013b).
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise is attributed to various factors,
including ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion,
melting mountain glaciers, and the large ice sheets of
Antarctic and Greenland. The specifc contributions
of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to global sea
level rise have generated a signifcant debate.
Process based approaches dominate sea rise
projections. Under the RCP 8.5 pathway, global mean
sea level riseis predicted to be around 0.8 m in 2081-
2100 relative to 1986-2005 (Church et al., 2013). The
yearly increase under the RCP 8.5 pathway increases
sharply from about 5mm/yr in 2020 to over 15 mm/
yr by 2100 (Church et al., 2013). Under the RCP 2.6
pathway, the global mean sea level rise is predicted
to be around 0.5 m, with the yearly rate of increase
changing marginally from around 5mm/yr in 2020 to
6mm/yr by 2100 (Church et al., 2013).
Another issue with sea level rise predictions is that
sea level rise varies across regions. Regionally, sea
level rise for South Asia is predicted to occur at 5-10
percent above the global mean. Under the 4 degree
scenario, the expected rise in sea level is about 30
cm in the 2040s, increasing by over 100 cm by the
2090s (World Bank, 2013, pp. 105-108). Coastal
areas in Asia are particularly susceptible, as the rate of
recent rise has accelerated compared to the long-term
average (Cruz et al., 2007). Projected Asian coastal
sea level rise also increases the risk of fooding in
coastal parts of South and Southeast Asia (Cruz et al.,
2007).
Moreover, increase in global mean sea level is expected
to raise coastal sea levels, damaging the oceanic and
coastal ecosystems, and increasing vulnerability to
salt water intrusion of river deltas, coastal freshwater
swamps and marshes (Cruz et al., 2007). Sea level
rise is also expected to adversely affect aquaculture
production and capture fsheries in river deltas
(Barange and Perry, 2009). Signifcant negative
impact on fsheries has already been experienced in
Vietnams Mekong Delta (Halls et al., 2009). In Arctic
Asia, increasing sea levels have already contributed to
changes in permafrost and storm wave energy leading
to coastal retreat (Are et al., 2008; Razumov, 2010;
Handmer et al., 2012). Sea level rise is expected to
be a major issue for Asian coastal areas, particularly
when combined with changes in frequency and
intensity of cyclones (Vaughan et al., 2013).
1.2.4 What are the Key Climate Change
Consequences for India?
Current Climate Trends
Studies based on observational data for a period of
around 130 years fnd no clear trend in the all-India
mean monsoon rainfall in relation to global warming
(Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008; R. Kripalani,
Kulkarni, Sabade, & Khandekar, 2003). Even though
the country as a whole does not show any signifcant
trend in the all-India rainfall, smaller regions
within the country show signifcant increasing and
decreasing trends (Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008;
K. R. Kumar, Pant, Parthasarathy, & Sontakke, 1992).
Climate Projections
Under the RCP 2.6 pathway, temperature increase is
expected to peak at about 1.5 degree Celsius above the
baseline of 1951-1980. Under the RCP 8.5 pathway,
warming increases until the end of the century and
monthly summer temperatures by the end of the 21
st

century to reach about 5 degree Celsius above the
1951-1980 baseline in the multi-model mean. The
warming is expected to be uniform geographically;
however, in-land regions are expected to warm
somewhat more in absolute terms. Relative to the local
year-to-year variability, the pattern reverses in coastal
regions, with more warming observed in the South
West. Under the RCP 8.5 pathway, the West coast and
Southern India shift to new climatic regimes, with
the monthly temperature distribution moving by 5/6
standard deviations towards the warmer values. Model
projections, in general, show an increase in the Indian
monsoon rainfall under global warming scenarios,
which is attributed to an increase in the moisture
fux into the Indian land region, because of enhanced
atmospheric moisture content as well as increased
9
INTRODUCTION
evaporation over the tropical Indian ocean (May,
2011). The precipitation projected from a subset of
CMIP-3
1
models, which are considered more realistic,
show a range of trends, including negative trends in the
monsoon rainfall by 2100 (Turner. A. G; Annamalai,
2012b), under the SRES A1B
2
scenario (3.5 degree
Celsius above pre-industrial levels). A study based
on twenty of the CMIP-5 models shows a consistent
increase in the all-India monsoon rainfall under the
various RCP scenarios with reduced uncertainty
compared to CMIP-3 models (Menon, Levermann,
Schewe, Lehmann, & Frieler, 2013). Some of the
more realistic models show an increase in the mean
monsoon rainfall by about 5-20 percent over the pre-
industrial period, by the end of the 21stcentury under
the RCP 8.5 pathway (Jourdain et al., 2013).
Changes in extreme rainfall events are as important
as changes in seasonal mean rainfall. Extreme
rainfall events show wide spatial variability with
more extreme events occurring over the West coast,
Central and North East India (Pattanaik & Rajeevan,
2009). Goswami et al (2006) have demonstrated an
increase in heavy rainfall events and a decrease in low
rainfall days over Central India. CMIP-3 models also
project an increase in extreme rainfall events under
anthropogenic warming (Allan & Soden, 2008). In
South Asia, an increase in the length of the longest
period of consecutive dry days is combined with
increases in heavy precipitation days (days with
precipitation >10mm), and maximum consecutive fve
day long precipitation shows an intensifcation of wet
and dry seasons by the end of the 21
st
century. Given
the dependence of agriculture on the exact timing and
amount of precipitation during the growing season,
any change in intra-seasonal variability is likely to
have an adverse impact. An increase in frequency
and intensity of extreme rainfall events is also likely
to result in an increase in the number of foods and
landslides, further damaging crops and infrastructure.
1.2.5 What are the Implications for a National
Climate Change Policy?
Given the magnitude of projected changes, and the
high vulnerability of the key socio-economic sectors,
it is imperative that we focus on enhancing adaptation
and resilience. This will require efforts to build a
more detailed and accurate picture of the range of
possible climate change outcomes. Nevertheless, it is
essential to adopt a low carbon growth strategy that
seeks mitigation co-benefts from an accelerated and
inclusive development perspective. This will ensure
that a gradual enhancement of adaptive capacity is
achieved through development goals, parallel with
gradual decarbonization of the economy. Finally, it will
be in our national interest to accelerate the multilateral
process towards an equitable climate regime.
Delay may lead to an increase in grandfathering of
emissions from the developed world, further reducing
the available carbon space for the developing world.
1.3 The Global Emissions Scene
The threat of climate change is increasing, and
simultaneously, the total GHG emissions keep
growing. Current global greenhouse gas emissions,
based on 2010 data from bottom-up emission
inventory studies, are estimated at 50.1 GtCO
2
e
with a 95 percent uncertainty range of 45.6 to 54.6.
Modeling groups use a median value of 49 GtCO
2
e
for 2010. This is already 14 percent higher than the
median estimate (44 GtCO
2
e) of the emission level in
2020 that is consistent with the 2 degree Celsius target.
It is also about 20 percent higher than the emissions
in 2000. Global emissions are again picking up after
their decline during the economic downturn of 2008
-09 (The Emissions Gap Report 2012, A UNEP
Synthesis Report).
The GHG emissions of a country depend on several
factors, including but not limited to, level of income,
1
CMIP-3: Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
2
SRES: The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, which defned a number of emission pathways resulting from different assumptions for key socio-
economic variables such as population and GDP growth. The SRES scenarios are the precursors for the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the
most recent climate simulations.
10
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
lifestyle, population and its density, economic
activity, trade patterns, urbanisation, size of the
country, transport infrastructure, natural resources,
etc. Not only the total emissions, but also per capita
emissions vary widely across countries. The same
What about cumulative emissions? It can be seen from
Table 1.2 below that Indias contribution to global
emissions since 1850 was only 2.7 percent, while
that of USA was 27 per cent. Annex I (developed)
applies to emissions intensities of economic activities
as measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted
per dollar of gross domestic product (See Table 1.1
below).
countries account for nearly 70 percent and Non-
Annex I (developing) countries around 28.5 percent
of cumulative global emissions.
Table 1.1 Emissions in the year 2010 for Selected Countries
Poulaton
(million)
GDP billion
2005 US$
GDP (ppp)
billion 2005
US$
CO2
emissions
(MT CO2)
Total Primary
Energy
Supply TPES
(Mtoe)
Energy TPES/
GDP (PPP)
(toe/000
2005 US$)
Per Capita
Energy
Supply
(Mtoe/
capita)
Per capita
CO2
emissions
(MTCO2
/capita)
World 6958.00 52486.00 70313.00 31342.30 13113.00 0.19 1.88 4.5
China 1351.20 4425.80 10286.30 7999.60 2743.00 0.27 2.03 5.92
Brazil 196.70 1126.70 2021.30 408.00 270.03 0.24 1.37 2.07
India 1241.50 1317.50 3976.50 1745.10 749.45 0.19 0.60 1.41
Japan 127.80 4622.00 3932.20 1186.00 461.47 0.12 3.61 9.28
South Africa 50.60 298.10 489.60 367.60 141.37 0.29 2.79 7.27
Thailand 69.50 210.30 530.80 243.20 119.15 0.22 1.71 3.5
UK 62.70 2386.60 2063.30 443.00 188.07 0.09 3.00 7.06
USA 312.00 13225.90 13225.90 5287.20 2191.19 0.17 7.02 16.94
France 65.10 2249.10 1958.70 328.30 252.83 0.13 3.88 5.04
Germany 81.80 3048.70 2828.00 747.60 311.77 0.11 3.81 9.14
Russia 141.90 947.20 2103.50 1653.20 730.97 0.35 5.15 11.65
Source: Internatonal Energy Agency (IEA) 2013. Mtoe- Million tonnes of oil equivalent.1toe equals 2.5 tonnes of Indian coal or 900 cubic
metres of natural gas/ coal bed methane(CBM)
Table 1.2 Energy Related Cumulatve CO
2
Emissions
Country
1990-2010 1850-2010
MTCO2 Percent MTCO2 Percent
World 761727.9 100 1322588 100
India 33886.3 4.4 36299.1 2.7
China 118226.4 15.5 135886.7 10.2
Brazil 19082.9 2.5 13858.4 1
USA 138381.1 18.1 361034.1 27.2
Europe (15) 85056.9 11.1 267870.5 20.2
Annex-1 370,493.6 48.6 926706.3 70
Non-Annex-1 368,165.8 48.3 377923.6 28.5
Source: WRI, CAIT data base accessed on 18/03/2014
11
INTRODUCTION
List of Annex I countries is given in the Box 1.2.
When looking at cumulative emissions since 1990,
the share of Non-Annex I countries is nearly 48
Global energy related CO
2
emissions have increased
from 22.0 GtCO
2
in the year 1990 to 29.9 GtCO
2
in
the year 2007, while that of the US has increased
from 4.8 GtCO
2
to 6.1 GtCO
2
over the same period,
the increase being almost as much as Indias total
emissions of 1.5 GtCO
2
the year 2007. While the
total emissions of most countries have grown, the
intensities have been declining gradually. Germany
was the only major advanced economy that showed
an absolute decrease in its emissions, while the US
Emissions have grown despite the UNFCCC and
Kyoto protocols
3
. The most dramatic increase was
shown by China which has tripled its emissions since
1990 and now emits more than the US.
1.4 Indias Actions on Climate Change
Even though India needs to increase its levels of
energy consumption to meet its human development
needs, India has takena decisive action to reduce the
risk and impact of climate change. In December 2008,
Government of India approved an Integrated Energy
Policy (IEP). The IEP estimates that Indias primary
energy supply will need to increase by 4 to 5 times,
and its electricity generation capacity by 6 to 7 times
of its 2003-04 levels, to deliver a sustained growth
rate of 8 to 9 percent through to the year 2031-32.
While this will imply a primary energy supply growth
of around 5.8 percent per year, commercial energy
supply will need to grow at a faster rate of 6.8 percent
per annum, as non-commercial energy sources will be
replaced over time.
percent, as emissions of Non-Annex 1 countries have
grown faster than emissions of Annex I countries over
this period.
If the growth is to be inclusive, demand for energy
must necessarily increase. At the minimum, inclusive
growth means all households have access to clean and
convenient means of modern energy. This means all
households are electrifed, and have access to clean
cooking fuels such as natural gas or LPG. In other
words, a secular shift from traditional biomass to
modern commercial energy has to be consciously
built into our strategy. Towards these ends, the IEP
scenarios project 100 percent electrifcation of all
households by the year 2020. They also estimate the
cooking fuel requirement for 1.5 billion persons at
about 55 Mtoe by the year 2020.
India is determined to see that its per capita emissions
level will never exceed the average per capita
carbon emissions level of developed countries. This
declaration, made by Indias Prime Minister on June
8,2007, at Heiligendamm, (Germany) continues to
guide Indias stand onenergy consumption and places
a self-imposed restraint.
In December 2009, India announced that it would
aim to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by
20 to 25 percent, over the 2005 levels, by the year
2020. This is a voluntary commitment India has made
to the international community, which shows Indias
resolve to ensure that its growth process is sustainable
and based on low carbon principles. Pursuit of this
goal will require sector specifc actions to reduce
emissions intensities over the period of Indias
Twelfth and Thirteen Five Year Plans.
Box 1.2: Annex I Partes
Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croata, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federaton, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey,
Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America
3
US has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
12
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The Expert Group Report is conscious of the above
postulations. A brief summary of the Interim Report is
given at the end of this chapter. This will be followed
by chapters that work out the details of major policy
options.
1.5 Indias Emission Structure
In order to explore strategic options to reduce emission
intensity of the economy, analysis of the quantities
and trends of GHG emissions from different sectors
is necessary. The emission intensity of an economy
can be lowered by reducing the need for production
and consumption, as well as by making consumption
and production processes more energy effcient. For
example, by reducing the need for air conditioning
through better insulation, or by setting the temperature
at a higher level, or increasing the effciency of the
air conditioner itself, will all help reduce energy
requirement and emissions.
Estimation of anthropogenic GHG emissions and
making of emission inventories began on a limited
scale in India, in the year 1991. These were enlarged
and revised, and the frst defnitive report for the base
year 1990, was published in 1998 (ALGAS, 1998).
Since then, several papers and reports have been
published, which have upgraded the methodology
for estimation, including estimation of India-specifc
emission factors, accounting for new sources of
emissions, as well as new gases or pollutants (Garg
et al., 2000; Mitra et al., 2002). Taking stock of these
developments, a comprehensive emission inventory
of CO
2
, CH
4
and N
2
O was prepared for the year
1994 from various energy related activities, including
industrial processes, agriculture, land use, land use
change, forestry and waste management practices,
and this was reported in Indias initial National
Communication to the UNFCCC in 2004 (NATCOM,
2004). Recently, the Ministry of Environment and
Forests, under its Indian Network for Climate Change
Assessment (INCCA) programme has made an
assessment of GHG emissions by sources and removal
by sinks for the year 2007. This allows us to examine
the trends in emissions, energy and emissions
intensity over the last decade of post-liberalisation
economic growth.
India aims at reducing its emissions intensity over
2005 levels, by 20 to 25 percent, by the year 2020.
The next section studies the GHG emissions structure
for India for the year 2007 and understands the trends
of growth or fall in emissions from various sectors to
ascertain what sectors can be targeted for reduction in
emission intensities.
1.5.1 GHG Emissions in 2007
In the year 2007,
4
Indias CO
2
equivalent emission
5

of 1904.73 million tons was primarily due to fast
growing sectors like cement production (growing
at 6 percent), electricity generation (growing at 5.6
percent) and transportation (growing at 4.5 percent).
The distribution of emissions across different sectors
is shown in Figure 1.3.
4
The 2007 data is based on various publications, mentioned in the reference to this chapter
5
Here CO
2
equivalent is the sum total of CO
2
, and CH
4
and N
2
O converted in CO
2
eq using Global warming potentials of 21 and 310 respectively)
6
Other energy sector components: include solid fuel manufacturing, petroleum refning, manufacturing industries, residential & commercial activities, agriculture
& fsheries, coal mining and handling of oil and natural gas. Other manufacturing industries: include glass and ceramics, soda ash, ammonia, nitric acid, carbides,
titanium dioxide, methanol, ethylene oxide, acrylonitrile, carbon black, caprolactam, ferro-alloys, aluminum, lead, zinc, copper, pulp and paper, food processing,
textile, leather, mining and quarrying, non specifc industries and use of lubricants and paraffn wax.
Figure 1.1 GHG Emissions Distributon across
Sectors in 2007
Note: For each category, the CO
2
eq emissions in million tons
are indicated just below the category name, along with the
percentage contributon of emissions from that partcular
category to the total GHG emissions in 2007
6
334.41,
17.56%
165.31,
8.68%
117.32,
6.16%
129.92,
6.82%
100.87,
5.30% 137.84,
7.24%
142.04,
7.46%
719.3,
37.76%
57.73,
3.03%
Electricity Transport Residential
Other Energy Ceme nt Iron & Steel
Other Indust ries Agriculture Wast e
13
INTRODUCTION
Energy sector: The energy sector emitted
1100.06 million tons of CO
2
eq due to fossil fuel
combustion in electricity generation, transport,
commercial/institutional establishments,
agriculture/fsheries, and energy intensive
industries such as petroleum refning and
manufacturing of solid fuels, including the use
if biomass in the residential sector. Fugitive
emissions from mining and extraction of coal, oil
and natural gas are also accounted for in the energy
sector. Of this, 65.4 percent of the emissions were
from generation of electricity, 3.1 percent from
petroleum refning and solid fuel manufacturing,
and 2.9 percent were from fugitive emissions due
to handling of coal, oil and natural gas. About 15
percent of the total CO
2
equivalent emissions (or
128.08 million tons of CO
2
eq) were from fossil
fuel and biomass combustion in both rural and
urban residential households. About half of the
residential CO
2
eq emissions were in the form of
non-CO
2
emissions, primarily from combustion
of fuel wood, wood waste, cow dung, crop
residue etc. in rural households. Replacement of
biomass with alternate sources of energy in rural
households will not only have positive health
benefts, but also lead to lower GHG emissions.
Transport: The transport sector comprising of
road transport, aviation, navigation and railways
accounted for 142.04 million tons of CO
2
eq
emissions, i.e., 7.5 percent of the total GHG
emissions in the country in the year 2007. Of this,
road transport alone accounted for 87 percent of
the GHG emissions (i.e., 123.57 million tons
of CO
2
eq). Civil aviation constituted 7 percent
or 9.94 million tons of CO
2
eq emissions from
the transport sector. Fossil fuel used by the
Railways released 7.12 million tons of CO
2
eq
of GHGs into the atmosphere. The emissions
due to electricity consumption in the railways
are already accounted for, in emissions from
electricity generation in the energy sector.
Industries: The industries sector accounted
for 21.7 percent of the total GHG emissions
or 412.55 million tons of CO
2
eq in the year
2005. The sector comprises cement and iron
& steel as well as other industries dealing with
manufacture and processing of metals, minerals
and chemicals. Among all industries: cement,
iron and steel are the largest; thereby feeding the
boom in infrastructure growth in India. In the
year 2007, cement manufacturing and iron &
steel production resulted in 6.8 percent emissions
(129.92 million tons of CO
2
eq) and 6.2 percent
emissions (117.32 million tons) respectively.
Industries comprising other metals, minerals,
chemicals, etc. released 165.31 million tons of
CO
2
eq i.e., 8.7 percent of the total GHG emitted
in the year 2007. The GHG emissions from the
industry sector are a sum total of emissions from
fossil fuel/ biomass combustion as well as other
process related emissions.
Agriculture: The sector comprises biogenic
emissions of CH4 and N
2
O due to enteric
fermentation in livestock, anaerobic emissions
from organic manure and cultivation of rice, on
site burning of agricultural crop residue, etc.
Together, all these activities released 334.41
million tons of CO
2
eq in the year 2007, i.e., 17.6
percent of the total emissions. In the year 2007,
livestock and rice cultivation together emitted
84.3 percent of the total CO
2
eq. emissions from
the agriculture sector.
Waste: The increase in population has led to an
increase in solid waste and waste water output.
Systematic collection of solid waste, recycling
and incineration for energy recovery have a huge
potential for reducing emissions from this sector.
In India, however, systematic collection and
dumping of waste is only carried out in urban
areas. Incineration of waste for energy has also
started on a pilot basis. The domestic waste water
is managed in most of the cities, and industrial
14
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
waste water is treat edmostly by the industries
themselves. These together are a large source of
CH
4
emission. In the year 2007, the waste sector
released 57.73 million tons of CO
2
eq., of which
12.69 percent was from the municipal solid waste,
39.8 percent from the domestic waste water and
38.2 percent from the industrial waste water.
Table 1.3 gives emissions of various greenhouse gases
by different sectors in the year 2007. The data reveals
the amount of different gases comprising the GHGs
and their presence in the overall carbon inventory
of the economy. In the year 2007, Indias net CO
2

emissions were 1221.76 million tons (1497.03 million
tons gross less 275.36 million tons sequestered), CH
4

emission 20.56 million tons and N
2
O emission was
0.24 million tons i.e., 71 percent, 24 percent and 5
percent respectively, of the total 1727.7 million tons
of CO
2
equivalent greenhouse gas emissions from all
sources.
Analysis of CO
2
emission across sectors reveals
that 47.81 percent of this was from the electricity
generation, while 27.11 percent was from
manufacturing in the industrial sector (iron & steel,
and cement production constituted 16.49 percent of
CO
2
emissions). CO
2
emission from transport sector
was 138.9 million tons, i.e., 9.27 percent of countrys
total CO
2
emission in the year 2007. The residential
sector accounted for 49 percent of the CO
2
emissions
from other energy related activities, indicating a
potential for reduction of emissions through the use
of more energy effcient domestic appliances (See
Figure 1.2 for details).
Table 1.3 Emissions of Diferent Gases from Each Sector in 2007
CO
2
(million tons)
CH
4
(million tons)
N
2
O
(million tons)
CO
2
eq (million
tons)
Electricity 715.83 0.008 0. 011 719.31
Transport 138.86 0.023 0.009 142.04
Residental 69.43 2.722 0.036 137.84
Other energy actvites 33.79 0.002 0.0001 33.84
Cement 129.92 - - 129.92
Iron and Steel 116.96 0.001 0.001 117.32
Other ManufacturingIndustries 158.98 0.014 0.019 165.31
Agriculture - 13.78 0.146 334.41
Waste - 2.52 0.015 57.73
TOTAL 1497.03* 20.56 0.24 1727.71**
* gross emissions including from LULUCF; ** excludes sequestraton of 275.36 MT
Figure 1.2 CO
2
Emissions Distributon across Sectors in 2007 (in million tons)
2007
138.858,
9%
69.427,
5%
132.117,
9%
129.92,
9%
116.958,
8%
158.984,
11%
33.277,
2%
715.829,
47%
Electricity Transport Residential Other Energy
Ceme nt Iron & Steel Other Indust ries Agriculture
15
INTRODUCTION
1.5.2 GHG Inventory - Data and Measurement
Accurate and timely availability of national GHG
emissions data is critical for good policy making and
for tracking the progress towards the goal of reducing
the emissions intensity of our GDP. Inventories of
GHG gases such as CO
2
, CH
4
, N
2
O, HFCs, PFCs and
SF
6
emitted from various sectors of the economy need
to be prepared on a regular basis. Measuring the trends
of GHGs emitted each year is critical as it enables
policymakers to understand the actual reduction
in intensity achieved through the policy measures
introduced. Currently, there are long gaps in offcial
reporting of National GHG inventories. The year of
reporting of the GHG inventories in the National
Communication (NATCOM) is determined by the
Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. Currently, GHG
inventories are offcially available for the year 1994,
as reported in Indias frst National Communication
to the UNFCCC (NATCOM-I). The Second National
Communication (NATCOM-II) required GHG
inventories to be reported for the year 2000 by 2011.
In view of the time lag, the Ministry of Environment
and Forests carried out a rapid assessment and arrived
at GHG inventories through sources and removal
by sinks for the year 2007. However, an inventory
management system needs to be put in place and a
systematic approach is required to develop a time
series for the gap years as well as for the years ahead.
Annual GHG inventories will provide an opportunity
to measure the impact of the steps taken to reduce
carbon intensities, as reporting with large lags does
not provide timely information for policy making.
There is, therefore, a need for creating a mechanism
that can estimate the GHG emissions on a regular
basis, particularly with respect to the goal India has
set for itself, of reducing the emissions intensity of its
economy. This is a daunting task, as uncertainty exists
in terms of gap in the data on activity, its quality, non-
availability of emission factors, etc. These gaps can
be bridged, over a period of time, by collating activity
data from various Ministries, their Departments, the
industry sector, performing QA/QC checks on routine
basis, commissioning surveys to ascertain data gaps,
developing emission factors for key emission sources,
analysing the level of uncertainties, and in conclusion,
including a regular review of the estimates by a third
party for reliable inventory estimate of greenhouse
gases at all levels.
A systematic approach for measuring and reporting
GHG inventory as an annual cycle is therefore
required to ensure the automaticity of generating GHG
information covering all emission and sequestering
sources. The system will estimate GHG emissions
for each year with recognised methodologies such as
those provided by the IPCC, and institute measures to
prepare country specifc emission factors for the key
sources. Bottom up and top down approaches for
measuring and mapping the GHG inventories need to
be put in place.
The top-down approach entails preparing GHG
inventories at the national/ state/city level, emitted
from all activities according to the sector.
The bottom-up approach tracks GHG inventories
of companies/ factories that would take into
account the impact of the energy effciency or
fuel switching measures implemented at the
utilities/ installations levels (can be referred to as
source points). This approach will have two major
benefts: First, it will allow validation of the results
of the estimation done through the top down
level, thereby improving accuracy and confdence
of the estimates. Second, it will form the basis
of emissions trading programmes, voluntary
disclosure programmes, carbon or energy taxes,
regulations and standards on energy effciency etc.
The key initiatives that need to be undertaken for India
to have a comprehensive database of GHG emissions
for all sectors of the economy include the following:
1. Setting up of a National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Management Authority (NGIMA) to track trends
of greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors of
the economy at national, state, district and point
source level;
2. Setting up of a National GHG Inventory
Management System (NGIMS) for archiving,
updating and producing information on activity
16
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
leading to GHG emissions or removals, by sector
at the national/ state/ district/ point source level;
3. Designing mechanisms for voluntary disclosure
of GHGs, on annual basis, from installations
1.6 Interim Report - A Brief Recap
The Interim Report of the Expert Group looked at
a number of local carbon options and assessed the
possibility of reducing emissions intensity. The
Interim Report had two scenarios called determined
effort and aggressive effort, each with 8 percent
growth and 9 percent growth trajectories. In this
report, however, only the determined effort scenario
with eight percent growth rate is elaborated. The
sector wise summary is given below:
Power: Emissions can be reduced by lowering
demand for energy through demand side management
(DSM) to improve energy effciency, and altering
the mix of electricity generation in favour of plants
that emit lower emissions. The Interim Report had
assessed that energy effciency measures can reduce
CO
2
emissions by 96 Mt by the year 2020, while the
supply side measures can reduce emissions by another
85 Mt over the same period.
The Interim Report also projected that to achieve
8 percent growth, the country needs an installed
capacity of 320,000 to 332,000 MW in 2020. When
the supply side possibilities are matched with the
demand side scenarios, CO
2
emissions in the year
2020 are expected to be in the range 1263 to 1428
million tonnes of CO
2
equivalents for the 8 percent
growth scenario.
managed by PSUs/ Corporations and by Medium
Scale Enterprises, to track the impact of energy
effciency or GHG mitigating measures undertaken
by them.
Buildings: Implementation of Energy Conservation
Building Code and Green Buildings Rating System
for both new and existing commercial buildings in
the country can save electricity consumption over
and above what can be saved by energy effcient
appliances.
Much of the action on this front, however, is likely
to be seen after the year 2020. It is still important
to make a beginning and ensure a suitable code is
evolved and integrated with statutory regulations at
all levels of the Government. If action is initiated on
this front, CO
2
equivalents emitted from the building
and power sectors are expected to come down to a
range of 1368 to 1141 million tonnes for an 8 percent
growth scenario by the year 2020.
Transport: Early completion of the dedicated freight
train corridor, investment in urban public transport
and improvement in fuel use effciency of vehicles are
critical for emissions reduction in this sector. After
these measures are taken, emissions can be reduced to
the range of 435 to 413 Mt of CO
2
equivalents in the
8 percent growth scenario.
Industry: Process and fossil fuel emissions from
industry (not including emission from generation
and use of power) totalled 478 Mt CO
2
equivalents
in the year 2007. Iron & steel, cement, and oil &
gas industries constitute around 60 percent of the
Box 1.4: The Year 2007 Assessment
Estmates were made using revised IPCC 1996 guidelines (1997), IPCC Good Practce Guidance (2000), the LULUCF
Good Practce Guidance (2003).
Carbon pools in additon to forests have been considered in the LULUCF sector (crop land, grass land, setlements).
Emission factors were also a mix of default and CS, leading to improved accuracy as more number of CS are being
used in this assessment (35percent of the source categories used CS factors).
The 2007 assessment reports both fossil fuels related and process based emissions from the Industry.
In 2007, 12 percent of the emissions are estmated using Tier III approach, implying greater accuracy.
17
INTRODUCTION
industrial emissions in the country. The iron & steel
industry emitted 117 million tons of CO
2
equivalents
in the year 2007 for a production of 53 million tons.
The cement sector emitted 130 million tons of CO
2

equivalents for a production of 165 Mt in the year
2007.
Emissions from oil & gas industry were 55 million
tons in the year 2007. This includes fugitive emissions
(like gas faring) as well as emissions from petroleum
refning. Emissions from this sector are expected
to rise to a range between 115 and 125 million tons
of CO
2
equivalents in the 8 percent GDP growth
scenario.
For other sectors, the emission-GDP elasticity over
the period 1994-2007 has been used for projecting
forward up to the year 2020. Other industries are
expected to emit 240 to 300 million tons of CO
2

equivalent in the 8 percent GDP growth scenario.
Other Energy Emissions: This refers to the use
of biomass and fossil fuels (LPG, kerosene and
coal) to meet the cooking and lighting requirements
of households, institutions and commercial
establishments, and also their use for energy in the
agriculture and fsheries sector.
While burning of wood does not lead to net addition
of CO
2
to the atmosphere, it does add GHGs in the
form of nitrogen. When wood is replaced with LPG,
total GHG emissions in CO
2
equivalent terms are
reduced. If our efforts at inclusive growth lead to a
wider use of improved cooking stoves and increase
in the coverage of LPG, emissions from this sector
could be brought down by 20 percent to a level of 261
to 235 million tons CO
2
equivalents by the year 2020.
Waste: The emissions through waste increased at
a compounded annual growth rate of 7.3 percent
between the years 1994 and 2007. Projecting the
same emission-GDP elasticity forward up to the year
2020, emissions from the waste sector are expected
to rise to a level of 146 to 163 million tons of CO
2

equivalents in the year 2020 under the 8 percent GDP
growth scenario.
Agriculture Processes: The agricultural processes
emitted 334 million tons of CO
2
equivalents in the
year 2007. Given the need for inclusive growth,
and an understanding of the Expert Group that a
signifcant reduction in agriculture emissions may
not be practically possible up to the year 2020,
no recommendation was made for reducing the
agriculture process emissions.
Forestry: The Expert Group recommends
implementation of a comprehensive Green India
Mission, wherein emphasis is placed not just on
increasing the forest and tree cover, but also on
increasing the forest stock, volume and density
of existing forests. This will increase carbon
sequestration to 43 million tons of CO
2
equivalents
annually, thereby increasing the GHG removals
by Indias forest cover to 6 percent of annual GHG
emissions, by the year 2020.
Miscellaneous Emissions: As explained above, in
spite of our best efforts, the discrepancy in the power
emissions data from the two sources, namely CEA
and NATCOM, could not be reconciled. This gap was
121 Mt of CO
2
eq in the year 2007 (nearly 20 percent
over and above the CEA data). The CEA estimates are
based on coal burnt at the power houses and NATCOM
numbers are based on coal dispatched from coal
mines. Some of the difference may be due to pilferage
on the way and some due to overstatement of coal
loaded. When burnt, the pilfered coal will also lead
to emissions. Making a reasonable assumption that
improved governance will bring this gap down to 10
percent by the year 2020, we projected miscellaneous
emissions for each growth and mitigation scenario as
outlined in Table 1.3 below. Scenario Summary: India
has already achieved commendable emission intensity
reduction since the early 1990s, when global action
started in the right earnest. The offcial data has made
a comparison between the years 1994 and the 2007
emissions inventory as compiled using a bottom-up
methodology explained in the last section. In terms
of CO
2
equivalents, the total non-agriculture GHG
emissions increased from 870 Mt in the year 1994 to
18
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 1.5 Projected Emission Intensity Reducton over 2005 and 2007 levels
2005 2007 2020
%age Reducton in Emission Intensity
Over 2005 Over 2007
1 Emissions at 2005 Levels (MT CO2-eq) # 1,433 1,570 4,571
2 Emission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs GDP) 56.21 51.28 42.47 24.4 17.2
# excludes LULUCF and Agriculture Process Emissions
Table 1.4 Summary of Projected GHG emissions for India in 2020
Higher and Lower Ends of the Range 2007 2020 with 8% GDP growth
1 GDP (1999-00 prices) Rs Billion 30,619 83,273
2 GHG Emissions (in million tonnes of CO2 eq)# 1,570 3,537
a. Power 598 1,428
Plus Building Code 1,368
b. Transport 142 435
c. Industry 478 1,167
i) Iron and Steel 117 406
ii) Cement 130 336
iii) Oil and Gas 55 125
iv) Other Industries 176 300
d. Other Household Energy 173 261
e. Waste Management 58 163
f. Miscellaneous 121 143
3 Emission at 2005 Levels 1,570 4,270
4 Emission Intensity (grams CO2eq/ Rs GDP) 51.28 42.47
5 Emissions per capita (tonnes/person) 1.43 2.67
#This excludes Agriculture Process Emissions in accordance with the internatonal commitment India has made. #With LULUCF and
Agriculture Processes added, it is difcult to predict what the net emissions would be, but the indicatons are that net emissions may
not be very far from the gross emissions indicated above.
1,570 Mt in the year 2007 implying an emission-GDP
intensity reduction of 25 percent over this period.
Table 1.4 compares the anticipated emissions intensity
reduction as compared to the 2005 (interpolated) and
2007 levels by the year 2020. It should, however, be
noted that while some of these reductions look large,
the cost effectiveness of these measures needs to be
reassessed. While some measures may not prove to be
cost effective, others could face institutional barriers
limiting our ability implement them. The feasible
technology options and policy actions are further are
spelt out in the Final Report.
1.7 Summary
GHG emissions from India have increased between
the years 1994 and 2007, the two years for which
offcial data is available. Electricity and transport
sectors have witnessed very high growth in emissions
in terms of CO
2
equivalent at CAGRs of 5.6 and 4.5
percent respectively. The GHG emissions from waste,
which comprises municipal solid waste, domestic
and industrial waste water, witnessed the highest
CAGR of 7.3 percent over this period. It is pertinent
19
INTRODUCTION
to mention that over the last two decades, GDP from
services (on an average) grew faster than the overall
GDP. As growth accelerates and manufacturing takes
its due place in the overall economy, emissions are
expected to increase further in the coming years.
The Expert Group was unanimous in its opinion on
low carbon strategies going forward up to the year
2030. However, given the fast evolution and an
almost disruptive nature of the green technology;
projections beyond 2030 were found to be diffcult
and subject to greater uncertainty. The Final Report,
therefore, takes the year 2007, for which offcial data
is available, as the base year, and makes sector wise
projections up to the year 2030. The Expert Group has
evolved a growth model which endogenises the three
main objectives of Indias growth policy namely:
faster, more inclusive and sustainable growth. The
Low Carbon Growth Model is presented in Chapter 2.
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World Bank. 40 Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case For Resilience . Washington,
D.C.: A report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Insttute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytcs, 2013.
NSSO (2012): Households Consumpton Expenditure of Various Goods and Services in India, Natonal Sample
Survey, 66th Round, Ministry of Statstcs and Programme Implementaton, Government of India. NSS Report No:
541(66/1.0/3).
21
2.1 Why a Macro Model?
Measures, which reduce emissions intensity, impact
the economy in a variety of ways. Such mitigation
efforts, however, do not come cheap. They require
additional investment, which in turn reduces
investment available for other needs. An assessment
of economic costs and benefts is, therefore,
important. Energy effcient processes can increase
the proftability of many value added activities, while
also facilitating structural changes in the economy
(MoEF, 2009). This not only makes an economy
more productive, but also sustains economic growth
by relaxing the energy constraints in the long run. It
is important to understand the macro-economic and
inter-sectoral implications of different mitigation
alternatives to ensure that the low carbon strategies
being recommended are mutually consistent with
each other.
2.2 The Model and its Appropriateness
A combination of bottom-up and top-down
approaches is used to create the Low Carbon Growth
Model. This macro-model is a multi-sectoral,
dynamic optimization model that is bottom-up in
the sense that it includes many available technology
options, and top-down in the sense that it covers
the whole macro-economy (Parikh J and Ghosh P,
2009).
The model endogenises income distribution with ten
expenditure classes, both in urban and rural areas.
The demand function is empirically estimated as
a Linear Expenditure System (LES) which fts the
NSS data well (Swamy, G., Binswanger, H.P., 1983
and Parikh K. et al, 2014). An LES also ensures
that expenditure of a given consumer on different
goods and services adds up to her total expenditure
(Stone, R., 1954). The distribution of consumption
expenditure into 20 expenditure classes helps in
assessing the inclusiveness of a low carbon strategy.
On the supply side, there are 25 production sectors,
and the output of some sectors can be produced
by more than one activity, for example, electricity
can be produced by 13 different activities. Finally,
the model is solved simultaneously for a number
of time periods, with the objective of maximizing
present discounted value of private consumption.
The model uses actual data for the Indian economy
and endogenously solves for major macroeconomic
variables like output, consumption, investment,
energy demand, energy supply mix, carbon
emissions, etc. The model projects outcomes for
all the years till 2030. The model is solved using
the GAMS programme (Brooke, A., Kendrick,
D. and A. Meerhaus, 1998). A detailed technical
description of the model is given in the Appendix.
2.3 The Scenarios
The model scenarios are run year by year from 2007-
08 onwards to a few time periods beyond 2030-31
to minimize the impact of the terminal period. The
model output is summarized through two extreme
scenarios outlined below.
1. Baseline, Inclusive Growth (BIG): This scenario
incorporates inclusive growth policies as outlined
in the Twelfth Five Year Plan, and serves as the
reference scenario.
2. Low Carbon, Inclusive Growth (LCIG): This
incorporates low carbon strategies while
maintaining the inclusive growth interventions as
introduced in the BIG scenario.
It is important to mention that while inclusive actions
remain unchanged between the two scenarios, low
2 Macro Model:
Low Carbon, Inclusive Growth
22
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
carbon strategies span the vector space between
them. The Model can therefore be used to generate
an infnite number of low carbon scenarios between
the two extremes. However, for analytical simplicity
in the sectoral chapters, we focus on more detailed
analysis of the low carbon strategies that are in line
with the LCIG scenario.
The motivation and specifc details of the two endpoint
scenarios are outlined below.
Based on these, the Expert Group set up targets for
well-being indicators for 2030 to defne inclusive
growth. Thus, poverty is sought to be reduced to less
than one per cent. Every household is to be provided a
pucca house, minimum electricity consumption of one
kWh per day, clean cooking fuel in the form of at least
6 cylinders of LPG per year, access to clean water
2.3.1 The BIG: Baseline, Inclusive Growth
Indias Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017) aims at
Faster, More Inclusive and Sustainable Growth.
Inclusion was also an objective of the earlier Five Year
Plans. The Twelfth Plan lists a number of monitorable
targets that seek to achieve inclusion in the long run.
These are enumerated in Box 2.1 below.
and sanitation facilities to all as well as health and
educational services at a reasonable level of public
expenditure. These targets are sought to be achieved
by a variety of means. Income transfers that simulate
the ongoing entitlement and employment guarantee
programmes are introduced as cash transfers,
beginning with an amount Rs. 1,000 per person per
Box 2.1: Inclusion Indicators in the Twelfh Five Year Plan
Poverty and Employment
5. Head-count rato of consumpton poverty to be reduced by 10 percentage points over the proceeding estmates
by the end of Twelfh Five Plan.
Educaton
7. Mean Years of Schooling to increase to seven years by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
8. Enhance access to higher educaton by creatng two million additonal seats for each age cohort aligned to the skill
needs of the economy.
9. Eliminate gender and social gap in school enrolment (that is, between girls and boys, and between SCs, STs,
Muslims and the rest of the populaton) by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
Health
10. Reduce IMR to 25 and MMR to 1 per 1,000 live births, and improve Child Sex Rato (06 years) to 950 by the end
of the Twelfh Five Year Plan.
12. Reduce under-nutriton among children aged 03 years to half of the NFHS-3 levels by the end of Twelfh Five Year
Plan.
Infrastructure, Including Rural Infrastructure
15. Provide electricity to all villages and reduce AT&C losses to 20 percent by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
16. Connect all villages with all-weather roads by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
19. Increase rural tle-density to 70 percent by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
20. Ensure 50 percent of rural populaton has access to 40 lpcd piped drinking water supply, and 50 percent gram
panchayats achieve Nirmal Gram Status by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
Service Delivery
24. Provide access to banking services to 90 percent Indian households by the end of Twelfh Five Year Plan.
25. Major subsidies and welfare related benefciary payments to be shifed to direct cash transfer by the end of the
Twelfh Plan, using the Aadhar platorm with linked bank accounts.
Source: Twelfh Five Year Plan Document, Volume 1
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
23
year at 2007-08 prices, increasing to Rs. 2,000 by the
end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan and to Rs. 3,000
thereafter. The coverage of rural and urban population
is gradually increased over the Twelfth Plan period
to reach the levels mentioned in the recently enacted
National Food Security Act, i.e. bottom 70 percent
of the rural, and bottom 50 percent of the urban
population.
To provide a pucca house to every household by
the year 2030, government demand for construction
between 2011 to 2025 is correspondingly increased.
The houses are then transferred free of cost to the
poor households. Universal access to drinking
water and sanitary latrines is similarly ensured as
increased government expenditure till the end of the
Thirteenth Five Year Plan. Government expenditure
on Education and Health is increased by 2 percentage
points of GDP from 2015 and maintained at that
level thereafter. To ensure that every household has
access to at least 1 kWh of electricity and 6 cylinders
of cooking gas per year, the defcit from households
normal consumption, on both these counts, is made
up by the Government.
Through these interventions, the Model achieves
the inclusion objectives of Indias growth policy as
outlined in the Twelfth Five Year Plan. Since this is
a national level model, regional and group specifc
measures are not introduced; the latter, however, do not
require additional resources, but only modifcations
in governance interventions.
The additional expenditure required for the various
inclusion measures are subtracted from total available
savings, and investment is correspondingly reduced.
The available savings are constrained by a marginal
savings rate of 35 percent.
Apart from inclusive growth, other assumptions in the
BIG scenario are as follows:
Autonomous Energy Effciency Improvement
(AEEI): AEEI at a rate of 0.5 percent per year
has been stipulated for energy inputs into the
production activities for coal, petroleum products,
natural gas and electricity. These refect effciency
improvements observed in the past, without
specifc low carbon initiatives, and are autonomous
to that extent. It is assumed that improvement up
to 0.5 percent per year have a payback period of
less than one year and so no additional investment
is required during the year.
Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG): It
is stipulated at 1 percent for agricultural sectors
and 1.5 percent for non-agricultural sectors. These
are the historically observed values. Since capital
is the only factor in the model, TFPG reduces the
capital output ratios.
No carbon emission constraints or specifc
measures to reduce the emission intensity of the
economy are introduced in the BIG scenario.
2.3.2 The LCIG: Low Carbon, Inclusive
Growth
This scenario, while maintaining inclusive growth,
introduces a number of additional measures:
The rate of autonomous energy effciency
improvement (AEEI) in production activities
is increased to 1.5 percent per year from 2015
onwards. However, in the case of power sector,
lower rates of AEEI have been taken to refect
the technological limits, that is, for coal, natural
gas and petroleum products required as inputs for
generation. AEEI in the power sector is assumed
to be 1 percent. AEEI for electricity used in the
power sector itself is taken as 0.5 percent, which
refects reduction in T&D losses from 20 percent
to 10 percent, and also reduction in auxiliary
consumption. One may note that in the Model, the
power sector is vertically integrated, and includes
generation, transmission and distribution facilities.
Effciency improvements beyond 0.5 percent per
year will require upfront investment, for which
the payback period is assumed to be six years at a
discount rate of 4 percent.
Many power generation technologies that do not
emit CO
2
are introduced. These include solar
photovoltaics (PV), solar concentrated solar power
(CSP) and wind, all with and without storage, and
biomass based power generation plants.
24
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Hydro and nuclear power development is
accelerated.
The share of generation by conventional coal
plants in the total coal based power generation is
restricted to increase by only 1.6 percent per year
from 2015 onwards. Additional generation from
coal plants takes place from the new super critical
plants with 20 percent higher fuel effciency and
25 percent higher capital costs.
Total factor productivity growth rates (TFPG) for
all sectors are the same in both BIG and LCIG
scenarios. However, to provide for the falling
costs of renewables like wind and solar energy,
higher TFPG rates are assumed for renewable
power generation technologies up to 2025. After
2025, the TFPG rates for renewables are also the
same as that for other non-agricultural sectors.
A minimum penetration rate for renewable power
1

is prescribed so that the share of renewables in
total generation increases from around 7 percent at
the end of the Eleventh Plan (2012) to 18 percent
by 2030. The total share of non-fossil fuel based
power increases from around 20 percent in 2012 to
33 percent by 2030. To put it simply, one-third of
the total power generation by 2030 becomes fossil
free.
For the transport sector, some of the options
assessed are the following:
i. The share of railways in freight movement is
stipulated to increase by 2.5 percent per year,
from around one-third in the year 2011 to
almost half by the year 2030.
ii. Fleet effciency norms on motorized vehicles
double fuel effciency by the year 2030.
iii. Greater use of public and non-motorized
transport by households is introduced by
changing demand system parameters to reduce
marginal budget shares for petroleum products
by 0.2 percent per year beginning 2015.
iv. The use of electricity and natural gas will
substitute petroleum products as alternative
fuels in transport sector. This is stipulated
by reducing petroleum products inputs in the
transport sector by 1.5 percent per year, and
replacing them by increasing inputs of natural
gas and electricity in the ratio 60:40 percent
respectively beginning 2015.
To refect the use of energy-effcient appliances,
the marginal demand for electricity by households
is assumed to fall by 2.0 percent per year from
2015, thereby reducing overall, by 30 percent, by
the year 2030.
An alternative service activity is introduced to
refect higher energy effciency of commercial
buildings, but with higher initial cost. The share
of this activity is specifed to increase from 1
percent to at least 3.4 percent by the year 2030 to
refect projections for the compliance of Energy
Conservation Building Code (ECBC). To refect
energy savings from ECBC compliant public
buildings, government consumption of energy is
reduced appropriately.
Higher AEEI rate of 1.5 percent is assumed for the
industrial sector based on various industry studies
and the on-going perform, achieve and trade
(PAT) scheme, as estimated in Chapter 5.
Finally, to refect the National Mission for Green
India that aims to increase green cover in India
by 5 million hectares, and improve the quality
of forest on another 5 million hectares by 2020;
CO
2
sequestration rates have been increased from
around 185 million tonnes of CO
2
per year in 2011
to 270 MT of CO
2
per year by 2030 as estimated in
Chapter 8.
2.4 Results
The Macro Economic Outcomes: Starting from the
same level in 2007, the Model predictions for 2030
and the resulting compounded annual growth rates
of Gross Domestic Product and private (household)
consumption for both the scenarios are shown in
Table 2.1. It is seen that the growth rate of GDP is
lower in the LCIG by 0.16 percent, and the GDP itself
in 2030 is lower by 3.33 per cent.
1
Excludes hydro-power as per the existing Government of India practice.
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
25
Gross Domestc Product (Rs Billion 2007prices) Private Consumpton (Rs per person 2007prices)
Year BIG LCIG BIG LCIG
2007 48,330 48,330 21,787 21,787
2015 85,521 84,934 30,674 30,349
2020 121,083 119,731 41,641 41,201
2025 168,582 165,107 57,018 56,416
2030 230,550 222,729 78,804 77,972
CAGR 7.03 6.87 5.75 5.70
BIG LCIG
Indicator 2007 2030 2030
Poverty 250 8 8
IMR 60.7 14.8 14.8
MYS 4.4 8.7 8.7
LEB male 61.6 71.1 71.1
LEB Female 63.4 73.5 73.5
(Poverty Millions of persons below poverty line; IMR Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 live births; MYS Mean Years of Schooling,
LEB Life Expectancy at Birth in years.)
As inclusiveness is a non-negotiable objective
of Indias growth policy, both BIG and LCIG
scenarios include policies that raise the wellbeing of
Figures 2.1 and 2.2 show how the number of persons
below poverty line changes over time in rural and
urban areas. We project fall in poverty from 2015;
and by 2030, poverty is virtually eliminated in
both rural and urban areas. Since the government
people. The wellbeing indicators are summarized in
Table 2.2.
fnances the income transfer without any additional
taxes, the available resources for investment go
down. However, there is no difference between the
two scenarios as far as transfers and inclusiveness
actions are concerned.
Table 2.1 Macro-Economic Outcomes
Table 2.2 Wellbeing Indicators
Figure 2.1: People below Poverty Line
in Rural Areas
Figure 2.2: People below Poverty Line
in Urban Areas
26
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Why is GDP Lower in LCIG?
The cumulative investments in the economy from
2007-08 onwards are shown in Figure 2.3. It can
be seen that while cumulative investments in the
two scenarios are more or less equal, the LCIG
scenario requires 50 percent higher investment in
the energy sector (Figure 2.4). Thus, even though
the total investment remains the same, GDP and
Private Consumption is marginally lower in the LCIG
scenario, as higher investment goes into the more
expensive renewable energy and other low carbon
interventions. This is particularly so because more
expensive technologies of power generation are used
in the LCIG scenario. Out of a total generation of
3,371 billion units (BU) in 2030 in the BIG scenario,
sub-critical coal provides 3,028 BU, whereas in the
LCIG scenario, both sub-critical and super-critical
coal plants provide only 2,200 BU. On the other hand,
non-carbon sources provide 234 BU in BIG and 1134
BU in the LCIG scenario.
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
BIG LCIG
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
1
BIG LCIG
Figure 2.5: Total CO
2
Emissions Figure 2.6: Per Capita CO
2
Emissions
Figure 2.3: Cumulated Investments in BIG &
LCIG at Constant Prices
Figure 2.4: Cumulated Energy Investments in
BIG and LCIG at Constant Prices
Total and Per Capita Emissions
The Total CO
2
emissions reduce signifcantly in
the LCIG as compared to the BIG scenario. Figure
2.7 shows how they change over time and across
scenarios. The total CO
2
emissions are expected to
reach a level of 5,271 million tonnes by 2030 in the
BIG, but could be lowered to 3,830 million tonnes
by pursuit of low carbon strategies in the LCIG
scenario. The per capita emissions are expected to
be 3.6 Mt of CO
2
by 2030 in the BIG, but could
be reduced to 2.6 Mt of CO
2
in the LCIG scenario
(Figure 2.6).
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
1
m
i
l
l
i
o
n

t
o
n
n
e
s
BIG LCIG
0
1
2
3
4
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
1
t
o
n
n
e
s
/
p
e
r
s
o
n
BIG LCIG
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
27
In the BIG scenario, the emissions intensity falls
from 0.43 kg of CO
2
/ $ GDP 2007-PPP, in 2007, to
0.33 kg of CO
2
/ $ GDP 2007-PPP by 2030. This is
a reduction of 22 percent over the 2007 levels. In the
LCIG scenario, low carbon measures further reduce
it to 0.25 kg of CO
2
/ $ GDP 2007-PPP by 2030. This
is a cumulative reduction of 42 percent over the 2007
levels in the LCIG scenario, nearly twice as much as
that in the BIG scenario.
Total Energy Mix
There is an equivalent shift in the total energy mix
between the two scenarios.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
1
BIG LCIG
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
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5
2
0
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7
2
0
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9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
2
0
2
5
2
0
2
7
2
0
2
9
2
0
3
1
BIG LCIG
It is interesting to note that even though emission
intensity falls, the total power demand remains
unchanged between the two scenarios (fgure 2.7
and 2.8 below). This is because the demand side
measures, which reduce power demand in the LCIG
scenario, are compensated by the increased demand
for electricity due to modal shifts in the transport
sector.
It can be seen from Figure 2.9 and 2.10 above that
the total energy requirment rises from 407 Mtoe in
2007 to 1,146 Mtoe in the BIG scenario and 1,108
Mtoe in the LCIG scenario. While the difference
in total energy requirment is moderate, the energy
mix changes signifcantly. Demand for coal in 2030
reduces from 1,568 Mt in the BIG to 1,278 Mt in the
LCIG scenario, and demand for crude oil reduces
from 406 Mt to 330 Mt between the two scenarios,
while demand for natural gas rises from 187 bcm
in the BIG to 208 bcm in the LCIG scenario. This
is shown in the Figure 2.13. The demands for Coal
and Crude Oil fall by 20 percent, demand for natural
gas rises by 11 percent, while the supply of non-fossil
energy increases six fold.
Figure 2.7: Power Demand in BIG &
LCIG Scenarios
Figure 2.9: Energy Mix in BIG Scenario
Figure 2.8: Reducton in Emissions Intensity
Figure 2.10: Energy Mix in LCIG Scenario
28
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Factors Contributing to Emissions Reduction
The emissions intensity reduction is realized through
three measures-reduction in GDP, reduction in energy
intensity of GDP through demand side measures, and
reduction in emissions intensity through introduction
of low carbon sources of energy. The energy intensity
of GDP falls from 0.121 kgoe/$ GDP 2007-PPP, in
2007, to 0.071 kgoe/ $ GDP 2007-PPP, in 2030 in
Since the load factor of solar and wind plants
are much lower than thermal plants, the installed
capacities of solar and wind are much larger than
what the levels of generation might indicate. These
are shown in fgure 2.14. While solar and wind
provide in the LCIG scenario, 427 BU out of
both the scenarios. The reason why the LCIG energy
intensity not lower, is that in LCIG, the GDP itself is
lower, and there are modal shifts in different sectors.
The contribution to reduction in CO
2
emissions
through the three broad alternatives, reduction in
GDP, energy intensity of GDP and emissions intensity
of energy, is given in fgure 2.14 below.
3466 BU in 2030 amounting to 14 percent, their
capacities are 225 Gigawatt (GW) out of 698 GW,
which amounts to 32.5 percent. Installed capacities
in GW and power generation in BU are compared
between the two scenarios in fgure 2.12 and fgure
2.13 below.
Figure 2.12 : Installed Power Capacity (in GW)
by Source in 2030
Figure 2.11: Source-wise Contributon to Total Primary Energy in 2030 (in Mtoe)
Figure 2.13 : Power Generaton (in BU)
by Source in 2030

546
406
168
11
4 8
1 1
445
330
187
20 24
73
24
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Coal Crude oi atural
gas
Hydr uclear Solar Wood
M
T
O
E
BIG LCIG
l N N Wind o
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
29
This decomposition has been attempted in a manner
similar to a typical growth accounting exercise in
economic literature. It can be seen that even though
total emissions in the LCIG scenario are 27 percent
lower than in the BIG scenario in 2030, only 3 percent
of it comes from reduced GDP, none from energy
intensity of GDP and the remaining entire 24 percent
comes from change in the supply mix (CO
2
/energy).
The impact of specifc low carbon measures has to
be separated from the impact of lower GDP. Table
2.3 below gives fows of energy sources in 2030 for
important sectors and the contribution of different low
carbon measures to the overall emission reduction
between the two scenarios:

-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
between the BIG and LCIG Scenarios
GDP CO2/Energy Energy/GDP CO2
Table 2.3: Contributon of Low Carbon Measures in Important Sectors in 2030
(a) Electricity (BKwh)
Requirement Transport Household Government Industry Other services
BIG 4079 70 526 312 1688 782
LCIG 3661 64 391 271 1363 580
% reducton in LCIG over IG
Efcient appliance 0.03 0.31
Electric Transport -0.97 -0.06 -0.05
vehicular efciency
Road to rail
ECBC Compliant buildings 0.18 0.19
PAT+ Autonomous efciency 0.94 0.04
Growth 0.07 0.11 0.01 0.15 0.07
Total 0.10 0.09 0.26 0.13 0.19 0.26
(b) Petroleum Products (MT)
Requirement Transport Household Government Industry Other services
BIG 424 133 140 17 81 164
LCIG 301 60 127 13 62 84
30
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
% reducton in LCIG over IG
Efciency 0.22 0.43
fuel substtuton by gas and
electricity
0.07 0.03 0.13
vehicular efciency 0.42 0.05 0.12
Road to rail
ECBC Compliant
PAT 0.04
Growth 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.20 0.06
Total 0.29 0.55 0.10 0.25 0.23 0.49
(c) Coal (MT)
Requirement Transport Household Government Industry* Other services
BIG 2789 15 11 2742 19
LCIG 1980 13 11 1940 14
% reducton in LCIG over IG
Efciency 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.20
fuel substtuton
vehicular efciency
Road to rail
ECBC Compliant
PAT
Growth 0.02 0.13 0.00 0.02 0.05
Total 0.29 0.13 0.00 0.29 0.25
(d) Natural Gas (bcm)
Requirement Transport Household Government Industry* Other services
BIG 277 0.0 0.2 7.3 197.1 72.1
LCIG 169 39.5 22.0 9.1 146.7 97.2
% reducton in LCIG over IG
Efciency 0.13 0.04 0.04
Gas Transportaton -44.29 -106.49 -1.41
vehicular efciency -0.04 0.00 1.15
Road to rail
ECBC Compliant
PAT
Growth# 0.26 4.88 1.49 0.00 0.22 -0.38
Total 0.39 -39.45 -105.00 -0.26 0.26 -0.35
# For Transport the number reported is absolute number
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
31
An analysis of the table 2.3 shows the following:
The total electricity consumption increases by 95
bkWh in LCIG compared to BIG in 2030. Power
demand decreases by 92 bkwh is due to lower GDP.
The total consumption of petroleum products falls
by 94 Mt of which 26 Mt is due to lower GDP, that
of coal by 376 Mt of which 126 Mt is due to lower
GDP, and that of natural gas increases by 29 bcm.
Household consumption of electricity in LCIG
falls by 91 bkWh in 2030, which is a reduction
of 20 percent. Of this 26 percent is due to energy
effcient appliances, and less than 1 percent due to
reduction in GDP and an increase of 6 percent due
to electric vehicles.
Government consumption of electricity falls by
36 bkWh, which is 13 percent of consumption in
BIG. This is due to 12.58 percent reduction due
to ECBC compliant buildings and 0.5 percent
increase due to electric vehicles.
ECBC compliant commercial buildings provide a
reduction of 97 bkWh in 2030 which is 14 percent
of consumption in BIG.
Energy effciency in industry including power
generation, due to the PAT scheme reduces
electricity demand by 48 bkWh, coal demand by
248 Mt, petroleum products demand by 3 Mt and
natural gas by 6 bcm.
Transport vehicles effciency improvement leads to
a reduction of 30 Mt of consumption of petroleum
products; whereas fuel substitution of petroleum
products by natural gas and electricity, and reduced
demand by households for motorized transport
together reduce consumption of petroleum
products by 40 Mt; and increase consumption of
electricity by 48 bkWh and of natural gas by 67
bcm.
This highlights the importance of looking at various
low carbon measures in an integrated framework. The
interactions of various policy measures and feedback
are signifcant. The low carbon measures are examined
in further detail in the respective sectoral chapters.
How much will the Low Carbon Strategies Cost?
As a percentage of GDP, LCIG scenario requires an
additional energy investment worth 1.5 percent of
GDP, over and above the BIG scenario. This amounts
to a total of 834 Billion US Dollars at 2011 prices.
This diverts resources from other needs, and may
not be possible to sustain if the growth is not fast
enough. The total GDP loss caused by the additional
energy investment in the LCIG scenario has been
quantifed at 1,344 Billion US Dollars at 2011 prices,
which amounts to an output loss of 3 percent over
the BIG scenario. International help, in both fnance
and technology, would therefore be critical to support
Indias pursuit of Low Carbon Strategies. Some of the
fnancing strategies are outlined in Chapter 9.
2.5 Conclusion
The model output has been summarized through
the two endpoint scenarios: the BIG and the LCIG.
Inclusiveness remains unchanged between the two
scenarios, while the low carbon strategies span the
vector space between them. These endpoint scenarios
are summarized below:
1. Baseline, Inclusive Growth (BIG): An average 7
percent GDP growth is sustained up to 2030. Rural
poverty is expected to fall below 10 percent, while
urban poverty will be completely eliminated. The
aggregate CO2 emissions are expected to rise
from 1,429 Mt in 2007 to 5,271 Mt in 2030 and
per capita emissions are expected to rise from 1.3
tonnes of CO2 per year to 3.6 tonnes of CO2 per
year by 2030. The total energy demand is expected
to rise from 400 Mtoe in 2007 to 1146 Mtoe in
2030, while the power demand is expected to
increase from 837 Billion Units in 2007 to 3371
Billion Units in 2030. The total demand for fossil
fuels is expected to be 1568 Mt of coal, 406 Mt
of crude oil and 187 bcm of natural gas in 2030,
which is a signifcant increase as compared to 556
Mt of coal, 156 Mt of crude oil and 43 bcm of
natural gas in 2007. Emissions intensity in terms
of kg CO2 $ per GDP (2005 PPP) comes down
from 0.43 in 2007 to 0.33 in 2030, a reduction of
22 percent over 2007 levels.
32
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
2. Low Carbon, Inclusive Growth (LCIG):
Although the average long term GDP growth is
only marginally lower at 6.9 percent, low carbon
strategies require an additional investment worth
834 billion US dollars at 2011 prices. Cumulative
investment in the energy sector between 2007
and 2030 is almost 50 percent higher in the LCIG
scenario as compared to the BIG scenario. A
fnance of this magnitude would be diffcult to
mobilize, particularly if the high growth is not
sustained in the long run, and adequate assistance
in the form of international fnance and technology
is not forthcoming. Outcomes, which measure
inclusion and wellbeing, remain the same as in
the BIG scenario. The total CO2 emissions now
increase much more moderately to 3,830 Mt and
per capita emissions to 2.6 tonnes by the year
2030. The decline in emissions intensity of GDP
nearly doubles to 42 percent, over 2007 levels, by
2030. An emission accounting exercise shows that
out of this total reduction, 3 percent comes from
GDP, 10 percent from energy effciency and 29
percent from shift to energy sources which emit
less carbon. The total energy demand, in 2030,
will be lower at 1,108 Mtoe, while the power
demand would still rise to 3,466 Billon Units due
to improved access and modal shifts. About one-
third of power supply should be fossil free and
aggregate demand of fossil fuels would be much
lower at 1,278 Mt of coal, 330 Mt of crude oil and
208 bcm of natural gas.
To summarize, sustaining high growth is a double
imperative. Not only is it necessary to fnd resources
for inclusion, but also to mobilise resources for low
carbon investment. Low carbon investments, on the
other hand, sustain long run growth by relaxing the
natural resource constraints. It is no longer possible
to pursue growth policies that treat these imperatives
as separate compartments. Fortunately, with the
approval of the Twelfth Five Year Plan Document by
the National Development Council, faster, sustainable
and more inclusive growth has become an integral
part of Indias growth policy at both the Central and
State levels.
References:
1. Brooke, A., Kendrick, D. and A. Meerhaus. 1998. GAMS A Users Guide. The Scientfc Press, Redwood City,
California, USA.
2. MoEF. 2009. Indias GHG Emissions Profle: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies, Climate Modelling Forum,
supported by Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi, India. <htp://www.moef.nic.
in/downloads/home/GHG-report.pdf>, September, 2013.
3. Parikh, J. and Ghosh, P. 2009. Energy Technology Alternatves for India tll 2030. Internatonal Journal of Energy
Sector Management, 3(3), pp 233250.
4. Parikh, Kirit, Ghosh Probal, DSouza, Alwin and Binswanger-Mkhize, Hans, 2014, Estmatng a Consumer Demand
System for Long Term Projectons with Emphasis on Agricultural Goods for India, Discussion Paper, Integrated
Research and Acton for Development (IRADe), New Delhi.
5. Swamy, G., Binswanger, H.P., 1983. Flexible Consumer Demand Systems and Linear Estmaton: Food in India.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 65(4), November: 675-684.
6. Stone, R. 1954. Linear Expenditure System and Demand Analysis, An Applicaton to the Patern of Britsh Demand,
The Economic Journal Vol LXIV.
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
33
Annexure: Model Description
The following is the description of the Macro Model used in this Report.
Consumption
C
iht
= c
iho
+
ih
(E
ht

i
c
iho
) ............................................................................................................................ (1)
where,
C
iht
= per capita consumption of the i
th
commodity by the h
th
household group in t
th
time period,
c
ih0
= minimum per capita consumption of the i
th
commodity by the h
th
household,

ih
= share of the ith commodity in the total per capita expenditure of the h
th
household and
E
ht
= total per capita expenditure of the h
th
household.
As income rises, per capita consumption increases, moving people from lower expenditure classes to higher
expenditure classes. Such changes would impact the demand structure of the economy. The model has an
endogenous income distribution, separately for rural and urban areas, to incorporate the change in the number
of people in different classes over the time period (2005-2050). The linear expenditure system (LES) and
endogenous income distribution together provide a dynamically changing commodity-wise demand structure of
the economy. The original inputoutput table consisting of 115 sectors was aggregated to 25 commodities, being
produced by 38 production activities. The model considers one commodity being produced by each production
activity, except electricity; that is, to produce power, the model employs renewables (wind, solar thermal, solar
photovoltaic, wood gasifcation) and nuclear-based technologies. Assumptions on nuclear are based on plants
that are already present or are in the process of construction. Coal, crude, natural gas and electricity are energy
inputs into the model. The model ensures equilibrium between demand and supply along the optimal path for
each commodity.
Demand and Supply Equilibrium
C
it
= G
it
+ I
it
+ IO
it
+ E
it
< Y
it
+ M
it
................................................................................................................. (2)
Private consumption demand + government consumption demand + investment demand + intermediate input
demand + export demand = domestic production + imports
Private consumption demand + government consumption demand+ investment demand + intermediate
input demand+ export demand = domestic production + imports
Total private consumption (C
i,t
) is obtained from the LES demand function and endogenous income
distribution. Government consumption (G
i,t
) is exogenously specifed to grow at a rate of 7 percent per
annum (we do not explicitly model the fscal policy and governments inter-temporal budget constraint).
Iit is the investment requirement of the economy and is matched by a mix of domestic savings and infow
of foreign savings, such that the Savings-Investment identity is maintained. Investments are not divided
into public and private, just as the savings are not. This simplicity helps us focus on other parts of the
model, particularly on activities related to low carbon strategies. Intermediate demand (IO
i,t
) is determined
endogenously by the inputoutput coeffcients. Exports (E
i,t
) and imports (M
i,t
) are determined endogenously
from the trade-side equations of the balance of payments block.Domestic availability of commodities is
assumed to come from domestic output (Y
i,t
) and imports (M
i,t
).
34
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Capacity Constraint
Domestic production is constrained by capacity, i.e., the maximum output that can be produced at the given
level of capital stock.
(X
j,t
X
j,t-1
) < (K
j,t
K
j,t-1
) / ICOR
j
................................................................................................................. (3)
(Incremental output is related to incremental capital.)
X
j,t
= domestic output of the jth sector at time t,
K
j,t
= capital of the j
th
sector at time t and
ICOR
j
= incremental capital output ratio of the j
th
sector, which is exogenously specifed in the model.
Capital stock in sector j depends upon the rate of depreciation, and investment, and is modelled using the
following relation.
Capital Stock Equation
K
j,t
= DEL(J)* K
j,t-1
+ I
j,t
................................................................................................................................. (4)
where DEL(J) is the rate of depreciation in sector j (exogenous), and I
j,t
is the investment in sector j.
Aggregate investment demand depends on aggregate domestic investible resources (domestic savings determined
by the marginal savings rate) and foreign investments available. Investment goods, which refect the structure of
capital goods in the sectors, are identifed separately, and are allocated to different sectors as fxed proportions
(P
i,j
) of the total investment (I
i,j
) in each sector.
Investment Equations

i
Z
it
< Z
o
+ S* (VA
t
VA
o
) + (FT
t
FT
o
) ....................................................................................................... (5)
(P
i,j
* I
j,t
) < Z
i,t
............................................................................................................................................. (6)
FT
t
= (ab* t) *VA
t
.......................................................................................................................................... (7)
where,
Z
i,t
= investment demand of commodity i at time t,
VA
t
= value added at time t,
FT
t
= foreign investment at time t,
S = exogenously specifed maximum marginal savings ratio,
Z
0
= investment in the base year (2004-05) and
P
i,j
and a and b are pre-specifed constants.
Trade is endogenous to the model. Foreign capital infow (FT) is a changing proportion of the value added.
Though exports and imports are endogenous to the model, upper and lower limits are exogenously specifed on
the growth rates of both exports and imports. The model has a balance of payment constraint for exports and
imports so that they grow in a realistic manner.
MACRO MODEL: LOW CARBON, INCLUSIVE GROWTH
35
Balance of Payment Equations

i
(M
i,t
* MTT
i
) = E
i,t
+ FT
t
.......................................................................................................................... (8)
M
i,t
< (1+MGRU
t
) * M
i,t-1
............................................................................................................................... (9)
M
i,t
< (1+MGRU
t
) * M
i,t-1
............................................................................................................................... (10)
E
i,t
< (1+EXGRU
i
) * E
i,t-1
............................................................................................................................... (11)
where,
MTT
i
= trade and transport margins for commodity i,
MGRU
i
and MGRL
i
= upper and lower bounds for imports growth rates of commodity i and
EXGRU
i
= upper bound for exports growth rate of commodity i.
Equations (7) to (11) specify the trade-side of the model, while equations (1) to (11) form a set of constraints,
based on the economic criteria, for the model solution to be meaningful. The optimal solution is where the
present discounted value of total private consumption is maximised.
36
3.1 Importance
Promoting energy effciency in households is
important because not only does it reduce emissions
intensity but also improves energy security, thus
lowering the need for energy. The options considered
for improving energy effciency in households are
lighting, appliances and equipment.
3.2 Indias Approach: The Energy
Conservation Act
In the year 2001, the Parliament passed the Energy
Conservation Act (EC Act). This Act was to provide
for effcient use of energy, conservation and for matters
connected therewith or incidental thereto. In the year
2010, some features of the EC Act were amended
providing more stringent compliance norms. The salient
features of the EC Act, 2001 are shown in Box 3.1.
3 Energy Effciency in Households
Box 3.1. The Energy Conservaton Act, 2001
The EC Act, 2001 empowered the central and state governments to:
Specify energy consumpton standards for notfed equipment and appliances;
Direct mandatory display of label on notfed equipment and appliances;
Prohibit manufacture, sale, purchase and import of notfed equipment and appliances not conforming to energy
consumpton standards;
Notfy energy intensive industries, other establishments, and commercial buildings as designated consumers;
Establish and prescribe energy consumpton norms and standards for designated consumers;
Prescribe energy conservaton building codes for efcient use of energy and its conservaton in new commercial
buildings having a connected load of 500 kW or a contract demand of 600 kVA and above;
Direct designated consumers to
Designate or appoint certfed energy manager in charge of actvites for efcient use of energy and its
conservaton;
Get an energy audit conducted by an accredited energy auditor in the specifed manner and interval of tme;
Furnish informaton with regard to energy consumed and acton taken on the recommendaton of the accredited
energy
Auditor to the designed agency;
Comply with energy consumpton norms and standards;
Prepare and implement schemes for efcient use of energy and its conservaton if the prescribed energy
consumpton norms and standards are not fulflled;
- get energy audit of the building conducted by an accredited energy auditor in this specifed manner and intervals
of tme;
State Governments may
Amend the energy conservaton building codes prepared by the Central Government to suit regional and local
climatc conditons;
Direct every owners or occupier of a new commercial building or building complex being a designated consumer
to comply with the provisions of energy conservaton building codes;
Direct, if considered necessary for efcient use of energy and its conservaton, any designated consumer to get
energy audit conducted by an accredited energy auditor in such manner and at such intervals of tme as may be
specifed.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN HOUSEHOLDS
37
Under the provisions of the Act, the Bureau of Energy
Effciency (BEE) was established with effect from
1
st
March, 2002, by merging the erstwhile Energy
Management Centre, as a society under the Ministry
The BEE has a number of programmes to improve
energy effciency. Among these, some relate to lighting
effciency, labelling of appliances and equipment,
effciency of buildings, fuel effciency of motorized
vehicles and energy effciency in industries. In this
chapter, we cover lighting and appliances.
3.2.1 Lighting: Bachat Lamp Yojana
A compact fuorescent lamp (CFL) can provide the
same level of light as an incandescent lamp (IL) at
a much lower consumption of electricity. Thus, an
11 watt CFL gives the same light as a 60 watt IL.
Replacing all the ILs with CFLs will save a lot of
electricity. The main hurdle is that the initial cost of a
CFL is 7 to 10 times as high as that of an IL.
A light emitting diode (LED) lamp consumes even
lesser electricity than a CFL, but costs much more
than a CFL. Promoting the use of more effcient
CFL or LED lights in cases where the consumers are
poor, have a high discount rate and for whom the frst
cost is very important. A commonly used approach is
of Power. BEE is responsible for spearheading the
improvement for energy effciency of the economy
through various regulatory and promotional
instruments. See Box 3.2.
where the distribution utility loans the more effcient
CFL and adds a monthly charge to the customers bill.
The customer does not feel any fnancial burden if the
monthly charge is less than the value of electricity
saved. Such a system will not work well if poorer
consumers, who constitute bulk of the domestic
consumers, are charged a fat fee or are supplied
electricity at subsidized price. The relatively affuent
might have no fnancial constraint in switching
over to more effcient lights. On the other hand, for
them the cost of electricity for lighting may constitute
a small fraction of their expenditure and they may
not even bother to change. They may not fnd the
CFL attractive in comparison to other sophisticated
lighting options.
We have used a different mechanism. The Bureau of
Energy Effciency (BEE) set up to promote energy
effciency launched its Bachat Lamp Yojana (BLY)
in February 2009. Under this scheme, a working
incandescent bulb is exchanged at a small cost of Rs.
15 (a CFL usually costs Rs. 100 approximately) with
Box 3.2 The Mission of Bureau of Energy Efciency (BEE)
The mission of BEE is to develop policy and strategies with a thrust on self-regulaton and market principles, within the
overall framework of the EC Act, 2001 with the primary objectve of reducing energy intensity of the Indian economy.
This was to be achieved with actve partcipaton of all stake holders, resultng in accelerated and sustained adopton of
energy efciency in all sectors of the economy. The primary objectve of BEE is to reduce energy intensity in the Indian
economy through adopton of result oriented approach. Apart from these, the broad objectves of BEE were:
To assume leadership and provide policy framework and directon to natonal energy efciency and conservaton
eforts and programmes;
To coordinate policies and programmes on efcient use of energy and its conservaton with the involvement of
stakeholders;
To establish systems and procedures to measure, monitor and verify energy efciency results in individual sectors
as well as at natonal level;
To leverage mult-lateral, bi-lateral and private sector support in implementaton of the Energy Conservaton Act
and programmes for efcient use of energy and its conservaton;
To demonstrate energy efciency delivery mechanisms, through private-public partnership; to plan, manage and
implement energy conservaton programmes as envisaged in the EC Act, 2001.
38
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
a CFL by the distribution company, which has worked
out a scheme to get carbon credits for this programme.
Chips are introduced in a small number of randomly
selected CFLs that measure the number of hours the
bulb is turned on. This provides a verifable estimate
of carbon emissions saved.
In the year 2011, nearly 5 million ILs were replaced
by CFLs saving 231 MU of electricity and 85 MW
of installed capacity. The programmes aim is to
replace 400 million ILs to save 6000 MW of installed
capacity and 18400 MU of electricity per year. At a
carbon price of US $ 20/ ton of CO
2
, the saving is
worth US $ 400 million per year. Assuming a life of 5
years for a CFL (it is claimed to be much longer), the
present discounted value of the saving at 10 percent
discount rate will be US $ 1670 million, in terms of
the CO
2
value alone. Thus for each CFL, US $ 4.17 is
earned and the cost to the DISCOM is only Rs. 85. As
long as a good price for carbon credit is assured, the
Bachat lamp Yojana should be successful. India must
ensure that the Kyoto protocol mechanism of carbon
credits is available. Unfortunately, carbon price on the
international market has fallen to almost 3 Euros / ton
of CO
2
. At this price, the BLY scheme is not viable.
Nonetheless, the scheme has created a large supply of
CFLs, and these lights currently have a good market
penetration in the non-subsidized segment. In many
affuent homes, hotels, offces and public places,
CFLs are now being used widely. The sale of CFL in
the year 2012 was 408 million in number. Figure 3.1
shows the way sale of CFL in comparison with that
of GLS (general lighting service) units has grown in
India.
Figure 3.1: Growing Sales of CFL in India (Millions)


662
783
36
408
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Growth
GL
S
We do not have data on the use of CFLs in commercial
establishments. However, a lower bound estimate of
energy saving from the use of CFLs can be made from
the household use data. The stock of operating CFLs
in the year 2012 based on a lifetime of two years is
around 750 million. We do not know the number of
hours CFLs would be used in a year. The 46 kWh/
years/CFL refects the use in poorer households
with one or two light points. In richer households
and commercial establishments, hours of use per
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN HOUSEHOLDS
39
CFL may be very different with the possibility of a
rebound effect. It is diffcult to assess the savings. It
is also worth noting that an LED lamp consumes only
four ffth of the electricity as a CFL uses. The LED
bulb in January 2014 costs around Rs. 250 and the
price has come down drastically from Rs. 2400 in the
year 2009. Scope for additional reduction in the price
in future may be there.
It is diffcult to make estimate for savings from
effcient lighting in households. Electricity saving
depends on the number of lighting points, CFL or
LED lamps and their hours of use. If we assume
that by 2031-32, all lamps will be CFL or LED, the
savings in lighting will amount to 70 to 80 percent.
A World Bank study estimates a saving of 45 percent
electricity in households by 2013-32.
3.2.2 Appliances - Labelling
Energy Effcient Appliances are promoted through
an appliance rating scheme. The appliances are rated
with one to fve stars; fve stars referring to most
energy effcient model. The label carries the amount
of electricity consumed by the appliance and also its
energy effciency. A buyer has the privilege to decide
if the savings are worth the additional cost for an
appliance with more stars.
Spread of Labelled Appliances:
BEE started appliance labelling programme fve years
ago. Every year, an independent evaluation is carried
out which assesses the penetration of starred products.
Using the data from such evaluations, penetrations of
different starred products have been worked out. These
are shown in the Tables 3.1 to 3.4 and Figures 3.2 to 3.5.
Table 3.1 Total BEE labelled AC sold
Star Ratng
Category
Cost
Approx. Energy
Saving
(Compared to Non
Star Category)
(kwh/product/year)
Year
Window Split 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
1 Star 18190 23000 259.54 52218 34988 361703 265387 50636
2 Star 19000 26000 415.32 227468 370531 871288 1263155 1034072
3 Star 24990 29000 566.94 10683 162848 692482 993836 1177119
4 Star 27000 31500 688.16 11191 21823 70496 114280 75477
5 Star 30000 33500 787.37 3640 5937 236634 486332 632846
Total 305200 656127 2232603 3122990 2970150
Source: Natonal Productvity Council Bureau of Energy Efciency for the year 2009 to 2012
Figure 3.2 Percentage Share of AC Sold in the Year 2007-08 to 2011-12
1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star
40
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 3.2 Total BEE labelled Colour Televisions sold
Star Ratng
Category
Cost Approx. Energy Saving
(Compared to lowest
Star Category)
(kwh/product/yr)
Year
CRT LCD 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
1 Star 7800 16500 0 0 0 0
2 Star 8200 17000 21.5 0 0 0
3 Star 8500 17500 35.81 320765 557413 514203
4 Star 10000 18500 70.51 719919 1449183 2205241
5 Star 13500 23000 117.72 723165 888355 485315
Total 1763849 2894951 3204759
Source: Natonal Productvity Council Bureau of Energy Efciency for the year 2009 to 2012
Table 3.3 Total BEE labelled Ceiling Fans Sold
Category Cost Approx. Energy Saving
(Compared to lowest Star Category)
(kwh/product/yr)
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012
1 star 0 0 0 0 0
2 star 0 6.7 0 0 0
3 star 1300 12.88 64531 31578 6224
4 star 1900 25.41 29290 17346 10909
5 star 2100 48.33 159245 448581 527502
Total 253066 497505 544635
Source: Natonal Productvity Council Bureau of Energy Efciency for the year 2009 to 2012
To assess the economic attractiveness of various star
rated appliances, we compare the present discounted
value of the saving in electricity cost at different
discount rates with the additional initial cost. The
results are summarised in Table 3.5
Table 3.4 Economics of Star Rated Appliances
Present discounted value of savings at discount rate 10%> Inital cost diference
Rs 4/ kwhr Rs 6/ kwhr
Appliances Base Ratng Life of equipment in years Life in years
Air conditoners 1* 5 7 10 5 7 10
Air conditoners 1*
2*
3*
4*
5*
Refrigerators 2*
3*
4*
5*
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN HOUSEHOLDS
41
Present discounted value of savings at discount rate 20%> Inital cost diference
Rs 4/ kwhr Rs 6/ kwhr
Appliances Base Ratng Life of equipment in years Life in years
Air conditoners 1* 5 7 10 5 7 10
2*
3*
4*
5*
Refrigerators 2*
3*
4*
Colour Televisions 2*
3*
Colour Televisions 2*
3*
4*
5*
Ceiling Fans 1*
2*
3*
4*
5*
The Tables 3.4 and 3.5 show that when electricity
is priced at Rs 6/kWh, star rated appliances are
economically Notional attractive, even at a discount
rate of 20 percent. The tables also suggest that
manufacturers should bring down the costs of higher
star rated appliances, if they want to reach out to the
large market of relatively poorer consumers.
In order to encourage manufacturers, they may
be given differential tax relief for more effcient
appliances. The level of the relief should not exceed
the value of CO2 emissions saved, considered at
a notional price of CO2. Tax rebate takes away the
incentive to reduce costs or increase effciency. Thus,
relief should be given ex-post in the form of a golden
carrot to the manufacturer who is the frst to sell a
prescribed number of units, for instance, a million in
a prescribed time frame.
It is recommended that the appliance-labelling
programme should be continued and extended to
other presently uncovered appliances. BEE should
also periodically revise its rating system to refect
best global technologies.
Projections of Energy Saving
To estimate the energy saving from labelling of
household appliances, we have to project the total
number of appliances possessed by households for the
years 2021, 2031 and the star rating of the appliances.
The National Sample Survey data and consumption
distribution as projected by the model described in the
previous chapter is used to meet this objective.
The National Sample Survey (NSS) is a quinquennial
survey of consumer expenditure. The 66th round
data (year 2009-10) gives the number of households
possessing an appliance per 1000 households for the
year 2009-10. Population is divided into 10 decile
42
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 3.5 Rural Households Possessing Appliance per 1000 households
MPCE decile class MPCE (RS per
person per month)
Television Electric Fan Air Conditoner,
Cooler
Refrigerator
0-537 452.98 94 205 6 1
537-631 584.4 160 289 15 3
631-718 675.35 235 357 12 4
718-804 760.79 294 440 19 7
804-895 848.07 353 511 30 12
895-1001 944.35 398 550 31 25
1001-1133 1062.93 471 629 36 34
1133-1322 1220.59 565 684 52 72
1322-1653 1470.33 612 737 79 122
1653-More 2516.69 702 825 152 292
All 1053.64 417 552 50 71
Source: NSSO 66th round (2009-10)
Table 3.6 Urban: Households possessing appliance per 1000 households
MPCE decile class MPCE (Rs. per
person per month)
Television Electric Fan Air Conditoner,
Cooler
Refrigerator
0-733 599.27 429 664 42 24
733-926 830.96 597 822 73 70
926-1101 1011.84 691 831 96 114
1101-1293 1196.08 768 902 143 218
1293-1502 1397.99 830 922 178 328
1502-1773 1633.42 827 938 190 359
1773-2097 1930.96 823 946 208 450
2097-2603 2329.87 818 943 236 537
2603-3665 3050.69 839 966 295 664
3665-More 5863.25 778 970 433 658
All 1856.01 758 906 214 390
Source: NSSO 66th round (2009-10)
The NSS data combines air conditioners and
coolers. Since these two have very different energy
consumption, we have used data from a survey by
NCAER for the period 2010-11. These are shown in
Table 3.8.
classes of monthly per capita consumer expenditure
(MPCE). NSS considers 12 items of household
appliances and durable goods that are possessed by
rural and urban households according to their MPCE
decile class for all-India level in the year 2009-10. The
total estimated households in rural and urban areas
in the year 2009-10 were 163 million and 68 million
respectively. Thus, each decile class represents 16.3
million and 6.8 million households in rural and urban
areas respectively.
The Table 3.6 and Table 3.7 give the number of
households out of 1000 households who possessed
the four critical appliances for energy consumption
for rural and urban areas.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN HOUSEHOLDS
43
Table 3.7 Number of households with Air Conditoner per 1000 households
Rural Urban
MPCE(Rs) Air Conditoner MPCE(Rs) Air Conditoner
519 0 715 1
718 1 1104 3
896 1 1516 4
1142 2 2130 13
1994 10 4457 120
Source: NCAER 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
(RS)
Refrigerator Projected
0
200
400
600
800
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Television Projected
Figure R-1: Television
Rural households possessing Television per 1000
households
Rural households possessing Refrigerator per 1000
households
Figure R-2: Refrigerator

0
200
400
600
800
1000
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
AC Projected
0
200
400
600
800
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Rural households possessing Eelectric Fan per 1000
households
Rural households possessing Air conditoner per 1000
households
Figure R-3: Electric Fan Figure R-4 Air Conditoner
Figures R1 to R4 and U1 to U4 show the number of
households possessing the appliance, out of a total
1000 households against the MPCE. The curves have
been extended in a heuristic manner to cover higher
levels of MPCE that may prevail in 2031.
44
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH



Urban households possessing Television per 1000
households
Urban households possessing Electric Fan per 1000
households
Figure U-1: Television Figure U-2: Refrigerator
0
200
400
600
800
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Monthly percapita consump n expenditure (Rs)
Television Projected






0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Monthly per capita consump n expenditure (Rs)
Refrigerator Projected
0
1000
100 1000 10000 1000001000000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Monthly per capita consump n
AC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Monthly per capita consump n expenditure (Rs)
Electric Fan Projected

Urban households possessing Electric Fan per 1000
households
Urban households possessing Air Conditoner per 1000
houeholds
FigureU-3: Electric Fan Figure U-4 Air Conditoner

To project the large increase in possession of
appliances for the year 2030, the population belonging
to different MPCE classes is taken from a simulation
of the model described in Chapter 2. These are shown
in Table 3.9
Table 3.8 Projected Households in 2021 and 2031 by MPCE
2021 2031
Class MPCE Rs Millions of
households
MPCE Rs Millions of
households
MPCE Rs Millions of
households
MPCE Rs Millions of
households
1 324 1 378 1 588 0 735 0
2 559 7 812 6 588 1 833 2
3 1073 44 2051 29 1125 10 2158 16
4 1652 34 3779 17 1668 14 3811 14
5 2141 29 5266 12 2154 17 5289 12
6 2936 49 7411 15 2990 44 7478 20
7 4130 27 10454 9 4168 38 10502 14
8 5408 16 13905 7 5448 33 13968 13
9 7032 11 17822 4 7094 31 17865 8
10 11225 9 33947 8 12958 49 40184 27
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN HOUSEHOLDS
45



Based on the MPCE, the corresponding values of
households possessing the appliances are read from
Figures R1 to R4 and U1 to U4. While households
may possess more than one unit of appliance, an
assumption is made to obtain a lower bound on
energy saving, that only one unit of air-conditioner,
refrigerator or TV will be working at a particular
time. For electric fans, we assume more that than
one unit may be operating. The numbers of units
operating for each appliance type in households
belonging to each MPCE class are given in
Table 3.9.
Table 3.9 Number of Operatng Units at a Time
CL 2030 TV Fridge Fan AC CL 2030 TV F ridge Fan AC
RH1 588 1 1 1 1 UH1 735 1 1 1 1
RH2 588 1 1 1 1 UH2 833 1 1 1 1
RH3 1125 1 1 1 1 UH3 2158 1 1 1 1
RH4 1668 1 1 1 1 UH4 3811 1 1 2 1
Rh5 2154 1 1 1 1 UH5 5289 1 1 2 1
RH6 2990 1 1 2 1 UH6 7478 1 1 2 1
RH7 4168 1 1 2 1 UH7 10502 1 1 3 1
RH8 5448 1 1 2 1 UH8 13968 1 1 3 1
RH9 7094 1 1 2 1 UH9 17865 1 1 3 1
RH10 12958 1 1 3 1 UH10 40184 1 1 3 1
It is assumed that the bottom fve classes will have
a higher discount rate of 20 percent and a lower
electricity rate of Rs. 4 per KWhr. The upper fve
classes will have a discount rate of 10 percent and
electricity tariff of Rs. 6 per kWh. This will suggest
the star rated appliances bought. Based on these
assumptions, the electricity savings are worked out
and shown in Table 3.10.
Table 3.10 Energy Saving by Appliances in 2030
Households Appliance Total no
operated
Millions
Life in
years
Star
rated
Energy
saving (kwh/
product/
year)
Energy saving
by star rated
appliances
(million kwh)
Energy used
by non rated
appliance
(Million kWh)
Energy saved
(per cent)
Botom 5 AC 4 7 2* 415 1660 10400 16
Refrigerator 26 10 3* 283 7358 18720 39
Colour Tv 60 7 0 0 0 24000 0
Ceiling Fans 94 10 0 0 0 21996 0

Top 5 AC 52 10 3* 567 29484 135200 22
Refrigerator 161 10 5* 411 66171 115920 57
Colour Tv 247 7 4* 71 17537 98800 18
Ceiling Fans 585 10 4* 25 14625 136890 11
All 136835 561926 24
Thus, from labelling of these four appliances, the
estimated saving of electricity consumption by
households in the year 2030 is 136.8 billion units. In
terms of percentage, it is 24 percent for the year 2030.
We assume the same rate of savings from appliances
other than those we have assessed here. Lighting
consumes 8 to 10 percent of household electricity
consumption in developed countries. If we assume
46
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
that lighting can save 50 percent of electricity and
non-lighting load saves 24 percent of electricity, the
total savings would be:
0.9*24 + .1* 75 = 29.1 %
Therefore, 29.1 percent can be the savings in
household electricity.
Based on the model used in Chapter 2, we have
stipulated a reduction of approximately 30 percent for
household electricity consumption, inclusive of both
lighting and appliances for the year 2030.
3.3 Implications and Policy
The four appliances considered here, refrigerators,
air conditioners, televisions and electric fans are
major household electricity consumers. Electricity
savings due to energy effciency are projected from
use of energy effcient household appliances based on
estimates of ownership of appliances by households
of total consumption expenditure classes by the
National Sample Survey and NCAER. It considers
the spread of different star rated labelled appliances
over the past fve years, assesses the economic
attractiveness of the different star rated appliances,
and uses the projections of income distribution from
the macro-model of Chapter 2, to project ownership of
appliances of different star ratings for the year 2030.
A 24 percent savings in electricity consumption has
been projected. These savings are based on no specifc
government policy except labelling of equipment and
price of electricity at Rs. 6/ kWh for the richer and Rs
4/kWh for the poorer classes.
The analysis shows the effectiveness of the labelling
programme. We recommend that the labelling
programme should cover more appliances and
equipment with clear, easily understandable and
informative labels. Efforts must be taken to create
widespread consumer awareness.
While private individuals and frms would make
an economically rational choice, it is not easy for
procurement offcers of public sectors frms or
government departments to do so. They are required
to buy on the lowest frst cost basis. We recommend
that government and public sector procurement
offcers should be empowered to purchase on life
cycle cost basis by specifying appliance based price
advantage that may be given for different star ratings.
If necessary, the Financial Rules may also be suitably
amended.
References
1. Natonal Productvity Council (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012): Verifed Energy Savings Related with the Actvites
of Bureau of Energy Efciency, BEE, Ministry of Power, New Delhi, Government of India. (htp//:beeindia.in/
miscellaneous/energy_savings_report.php)
2. NCAER(2014): Natonal Survey of Household Income and Expenditure (2010-11), NCAER New Delhi. Forthcoming.
3. NSSO (2012): Households Consumpton Expenditure of Various Goods and Services in India, Natonal Sample
Survey, 66th Round, Ministry of Statstcs and Programme Implementaton, Government of India. NSS Report No:
541(66/1.0/3).
47
4.1 Energy Use in Buildings
Buildings consume a lot of energy. Energy effciency
in buildings is quite important. A combined application
of structural design involving natural sunlight and
appropriate orientation, insulation that is based on
natural sources of cooling and heating can ensure
saving of a substantial amount of energy. Appropriate
management including automation systems may also
be added to this gamut of applications for increasing
savings. Several modern energy effcient commercial
buildings use more effcient Heating Ventilation and
Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems and also install
renewable energy sources. Commercial buildings
include offces, hospitals, hotels, retail outlets,
educational buildings and public services including
government offces. Here we deal with energy
consumed in using these buildings. The energy
embodied in construction of these buildings and
structures is not considered in this section.
The residential and commercial sectors account for
29 percent of the total electricity consumption and is
rising at a rate of 8 percent annually (CWF, 2010). A
signifcant part of this percentage goes into heating,
cooling and lighting.
Based on the growth rates of building space (CWF,
2010), areas of commercial building are projected for
the years 2020 and 2070. These are show in Figure
4.1.
4 Energy Effciency in Buildings
Figure 4.1 Growth of Indian Building Sector (CWF, 2010)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2030
Retail
Hospitality
Commercial &
Year
m
i
l
l
i
o
n

s
q
u
a
r
e
f
e
e
t
8%
10%
8%
5%
4.2 Commercial Buildings
Bureau of Energy Effciency (BEE) in India developed
an energy conservation building code (ECBC), for
large commercial buildings having a connected load
of 100 kW or contract demand of 120 kVA or more.
It is mandatory in 7 states as of April 2014 and is
expected that it would be made mandatory in all states
48
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
over time. The services sector being the largest in the
Indian economy and also the fastest growing makes
this a measure of tremendous importance. New offce
buildings, mostly air conditioned are being built at a
rapid pace.
Commercial buildings also use window air
conditioners. In Chapter 3, we have estimated savings
only for households use of air conditioners, etc.
Many of the commercial buildings have central air
conditioning and chillers, whose effciencies can also
be improved. This as well as designs that increase
day light and reduce need for day time lighting have
not been accounted for in the power chapter; nor
have been the gains from better insulation, plugging
of leaks, and the use of natural ventilation or geo-
thermal energy.
The baseline for CO
2
emissions for conventional
buildings is estimated at 40,000 tonnes of CO
2
per
million Sq.ft or 4, 30,570 tonnes of C0
2
per million
Sq.m of building. At this rate the expected emissions
from the commercial building sector in the absence of
efforts to reduce energy consumption, will be 610 Mt
of CO
2
in 2020 and 1,370 Mt of CO
2
in 2030.
4.3 Projected Savings
The following assumptions have been made while
The major energy consuming equipments in the
commercial sector are: lighting 25 percent, heating,
ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) 55 percent,
and other offce related equipment 5 percent, see
Figure 4.2.
calculating the carbon abatement potential, by the
years 2030. ECBC is applicable to 50 percent of total
built-up space (as commercial buildings defned in EC
Act shall have connected load of 100kW or contract
demand of 120 kVA or more).
1. In order to meet the objectives of Twelfth Plan, it is
considered that 75 percent of all new commercial
buildings will be ECBC compliant and 20 percent
of existing buildings stock would reduce their
present energy consumption
2. Existing built-up space stock by 2030 includes
existing built-up space stock by the year 2014,
and 25 percent of new built-up space, which is
assumed to be non-compliant to the ECBC code
3. Emission from Conventional Buildings = 0.04
Million Tonnes/ Million Sq.ft
Scenario considered for the year 2030:
80 percent of new built-up space compliant to
ECBC save 25 percent of emissions
Figure 4.2 Energy Consumpton Distributon in Commercial Building (Bureau of Energy Efciency)
25%
55%
5%
15%
Sales
(HVAC)
Others
Internal Loads
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
49
20 percent of the existing built-up space (i.e.
existing built-up space by the year 2014 + 25
percent new built-up space non-compliant to
ECBC)
4.4 Experience with Building Codes
and Rating
In the Interim Report, we had projected the reductions
in emissions that may be realized based on certain
assumptions. In order to see the realism of our
assumptions, we look at the recent experience and the
Based on this, the projected emissions and abatement
from commercial buildings were worked out in Table
4.1
data available for some of the rated buildings. Three
different rating systems by three different agencies
use different criteria in India. Green building rating
systems have recently become popular in India.
The major green building rating systems currently
operating in India are:
Table 4.1: Projected Emissions from Commercial Buildings
Projected Up To 2020
Sr.
No.
Partculars Area Considered in
(Million Sqf)
C0
2
Abated in (Million
Tonnes)
1 75% of ECBC applicable new commercial built-up space (being 50% of
new built up space) compliant to ECBC save 25% of emissions
2,290 23
2 10% of the existng commercial built-up space (i.e. existng
commercial built-up space by 2014 + 25% new commercial built-
up space non-compliant to ECBC) are retrofted and save 20% of
emissions
526 4
3 10 % of existng commercial built-up space (i.e. existng commercial
built-up space by 2014 + 25% new commercial built-up space
noncompliant to ECBC) respond to market penetraton of ratng
systems and save 20% of emission
526 4
Total in 2020 31
Projectons From 2020 to 2030
Sr.
No.
Partculars Area Considered in (
Million Sqf)
C02 Abated in (Million
Tonnes )
1 80% of ECBC applicable new commercial built-up space (being 50% of
new built up space)compliant to ECBC save 25% of emissions
7,629 76
2 20% of the existng commercial built-up space (i.e. existng
commercial built-up space by 2014 + 25% new commercial built-
up space non-compliant to ECBC) are retrofted and save 20% of
emissions
1,482 12
3 20 % of existng commercial built-up space (i.e. existng commercial
built-up space by 2014 + 25% new commercial built-up space
noncompliant to ECBC) respond to market penetraton of ratng
systems and save 20% of emission
1,482 12
Additon between 2020
and 2030
100
2020 2030
Predicted Commercial Areas in Million Sq.f 15,262 34,335
Emissions Mt of CO2 at 0.04 Mt / million Sq.f 610 1,371
CO2 emissions abated Million tons / year 31 131
% Reducton 5 10
50
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The Bureau of Energy Effciency (BEE) gives star
rating to buildings as per their energy effciency.
Indian Green Building Council (IGBC) rates
buildings as platinum, gold, silver and certifed.
The ratings take many sustainability characteristics
in to account including minimum energy effciency
level of buildings and therefore, energy effciency
does not necessarily increase beyond certain
minimum level, with rating.
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) rates
building as per its GRIHA system.
4.4.1 ECBC
Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC),
formally launched in May 2005, specifes the energy
performance requirements of commercial buildings in
India. ECBC has been developed by the Bureau of
Energy Effciency (BEE) and has been mandated by
the Energy Conservation Act 2001. The code covers
buildings with a connected electrical load of 100 kW
or more.
The purpose of this code is to provide minimum
requirements for the energy-effcient design and
construction of buildings. It is planned that the code
shall be mandatory for commercial buildings or
building complexes. The Bureau of Energy Effciency
is the primary body responsible for implementing the
ECBC; and it works towards policy formulation as
well as technical support for the development of the
codes and standards and their supporting compliance
tools and procedures.
Rajasthan, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and
Puducherry have notifed ECBC; other states like
Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Gujarat Uttar
Pradesh have amended ECBC; and states like Andhra
Pradesh, Kerala, Gujarat and Punjab are in the process
of amending and notifying the ECBC.
In order to create a market pull for energy effcient
buildings, Bureau of Energy Effciency (BEE) has
developed a Star Rating Programme for existing
buildings which is based on actual performance of
the buildings, in terms of energy usage in the building
over its area expressed in kWh/sq. m/year. The norms
for different star ratings are given in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 Star Ratngs and Energy Use Intensity Norms by BEE
Climatc Zone Composite Warm and Humid Hot and Dry Temperate
A. Day Use Ofce building
Less than 50 % air conditoned built up area
1 Star 80-70 85-75 75-65
2 Star 70-60 75-65 65-55
3 Star 60-50 65-55 55-45
4 Star 50-40 55-45 45-35
5 Star Below 40 Below 45 Below 35
More than 50 % air conditoned built up area
1 Star 190-165 200-175 180-155
2 Star 165-140 175-150 155-130
3 Star 140-115 150-125 130-105
4 Star 115-90 125-100 105-80
5 Star Below 90 Below 100 Below 80
B. Shopping Mall building
1 Star 350-300 450-400 300-250 275-250
2 Star 300-250 400-350 250-200 250-225
3 Star 250-200 350-300 200-150 225-200
4 Star 200-150 300-250 150-100 200-175
5 Star Below 150 Below 250 Below 100 Below 175
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
51
Table 4.4 Energy Use norms for GRIHA ratng
Table 4.3 Energy Use Reducton in Green Buildings
In addition to the Star rating scheme, BEE has
a retroffting programme based on Performance
Contracting Energy Service Company (ESCO) model
for existing government and commercial buildings.
4.4.2 Green Building Rating Systems
One of the major green building rating systems
currently operating in India is the Indian Green
Building Council (IGBC) rating system. To
facilitate the adoption of green building practices
relevant to the local climate and regional practices
for various building types, IGBC has developed
various rating programmes. These rating systems
are voluntary, consensus based, market-driven and
are designed to address national priorities.
The rating programmes developed by IGBC
include IGBC Green Homes, IGBC Green Existing
4.4.3 GRIHA of TERI
Energy savings in some GRIHA rated buildings is
4.4.4 Experience of Energy Saving
Experience with few large rated buildings by IGBC is
summarized in Table 4.6. These buildings show energy
savings in addition to ECBC-ASHRAE compliant
buildings of 19 to 60 percent. No systematic study of
savings from the shell of the building is available. It is
estimated by experts to be between 12 to 30 percent.
Buildings Operations & Management, IGBC Green
Factory Buildings, IGBC Green SEZs, IGBC Green
Landscapes, IGBC Green Townships, IGBCs
rating for commercial buildings.
Over 2,272 green building projects amounting
to 1,715 million sq. ft. are coming up under fve
climatic zones of country. The various building
types covered under IGBC Green Building rating
systems include offce buildings, IT parks, hotels,
airports, hospitals, educational institutions, factory
buildings, residential buildings, indoor stadiums,
SEZs, townships etc.
Though green building rating takes in to account
many attributes of sustainability other than
energy use intensity, reduction in energy roughly
corresponds to ratings as given in Table 4.3.
shown in Table 4.4. It is seen that 30 percent reduction
in energy is a conservative number.
The energy saving that can be expected from
green buildings, including from energy effcient
equipments is at least 30 percent, which has been
taken in the model of Chapter 2. It is seen that when
frms take interest in energy effciency, the savings
can be much more than the 30 percent assumed in
the projections.
Table 4.5 Energy Use norms for GRIHA ratng
Table 4.4 Energy Use Reducton in Green Buildings
Level of Star Ratng Number of Building Rated Build Up Area in Square
Metres
EPI Reductons (%)
5 Star 6 261120 41-64
4 Star 4 117898 30-56
3 Star 4 134644 32-57
2 Star 3 1630800 12-73
Green Building Ratng Level Number of Buildings rated Built-up area (in sq.m) Energy reducton
Platnum 109 2,121,060 40-50%
Gold 212 7,607,925 30-40%
Silver 54 10,12,076 20-30%
Certfed 25 267,124 15-20%
52
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
53
A detailed modeling study, see Box 4.1, carried out
4.4 Retroftting
In addition to new buildings, retroftting of old
buildings also offers substantial scope for energy
saving experience shows many options with payback
period of two years. (See Box 4.1 examples of
for different types of building sin Jaipur confrms this.
retroftting of old buildings in Mumbai). A special
window should be opened in housing fnance
companies and banks to provide loans to ESCOs and
owners for retroftting of buildings. One can also set
up a Carbon Trust type agency that prepares project
reports and fnances retroftting.
Box 4.1 The MNIT Jaipur Study
The study conducted by MNIT Jaipur on six diferent types of existng buildings concluded that there is a vast potental
for energy savings through implementaton of ECBC in the country. The study was conducted through simulaton
models developed taking details of six diferent types of buildings including hotel, retail mall, hospital, insttutonal
building, private ofce building and government ofce building located in Jaipur, and examining through modelling,
the potental of energy savings through adopton of ECBC in these six buildings. It was observed that diferent buildings
have diferent energy saving potental depending on the constructon specifcatons, usage, systems and equipment
installed, conditoned area and other factors. Analysed buildings show the energy savings potental ranges from 17
to 42 percent. The study also indicates that there exists further more potental for energy saving through adopton of
advanced energy conservaton measures; however, it might not be fnancially atractve for the general public at this
stage due to their economy of scale.
In the prescriptve opton of compliance, the code also provides a well formulated trade-of opton for removal of
costly provisions for building envelope against beter performance of cheaper energy saving measure for the building
envelope. For example, insulaton on wall, if found costly or eatng up commercially usable space, can be traded-of
against beter use of shading devices, or glass specifcatons or roof insulaton, and vice versa.
Even if the building is built using prescriptve specifcatons of the code, and without using the simulaton or trade-of
method, the incremental cost of the building is likely to be up to 15 percent over common practce case. The resultng
energy savings in most cases, ofer a payback period of 2 to 4 years over the investment.
Box 4.2 Retroftng Existng Buildings for Energy Efciency
The Bureau of Energy Efciency (BEE), Star Ratng system is based on the use of electricity per m2 per year or an
Energy Performance Index (EPI). The star ratng depends on the locaton of a city and its humidity levels. For Mumbai,
a building that uses 200 kWh/m2/yr gets 1 Star.
The ratngs go to 2, 3, 4 and 5 as the EPI values drop to 175, 150, 125 and 100 kWh/m2/yr. The examples below show
that retroftng old buildings can save energy and make economic sense.
Bombay House, Mumbai
The headquarters of Tata Group, Bombay House in Mumbai, built in 1924, began with energy audit and followed it up
to implement several efciency measures.
Afer the frst audit in 2010, the EPI was found to be 172 kWh/m2/year enabling Bombay House to get a ratng of 2 Star.
The following modifcatons were carried out:
1) Old Chillers and pumps were replaced by energy Efcient machines
2) Energy efcient T-5 lamps with electronic ballasts were installed in 90% areas
3) Variable Frequency Drives (VFD) were installed on Cooling Water pumps
4) Individual Energy metering is done for 90% ofces in the building
5) A Building Management System (BMS) was installed and is operatonal
With these modifcatons, the EPI has dropped to 145 kWh/m2/yr. Thus Bombay House is eligible
54
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
for a 3 Star ratng from BEE. The estmated expenses for the modifcatons were around Rs 35 Lakh but they are
saving an estmated 1, 40,000 kWh/yr. The payback period for this investment will be 2 years since the electricity tarif
at Bombay House will be around Rs 12.5/kWh over the two year period. Bombay House is pursuing further savings to
obtain eventually a 5-star ratng and bring down in EPI to 100 kWh/ m2/yr.
Godrej Bhavan, Mumbai
Just two years afer the company Godrej & Boyce upgraded its six-story building built in 1970, electricity costs have
plummeted by 28 percent, while total electricity use has dropped by 12 percent. The company stands to recover the
costs of its energy-efciency retrofts (INR 5,384,000) in as litle as 4.7 years. The building will start accumulatng
savings and 15 years afer the 2010 upgrade, Godrej & Boyce could realize up to 6,980,000 in electric bill savings
The upgraded HVAC system alone represents an average of 32 percent in the overall electricity savings for FY 2010-
2012. This new system, equipped with a screw chiller, water-cooled condenser, and electronic expansion valve, has a
double coefcient of performance (COP) of 5.5, compared to the former 35-year old direct-expansion unit with 2.2 COP.
Elsewhere in the building, high-efciency T-5 fuorescent tube lamps and increased natural lightng improve lightng
efciency. Double-glazed clear windows and shading devices also reduce heat. With the newly installed Building Energy
Management System, the buildings maintenance managers can now track and adjust electricity usage for maximum
efciency.
4.5 Implications and Policy
As mentioned in the frst part of this section,
BEE in India has enacted an energy conservation
building code (ECBC), which is mandatory for large
commercial buildings. It has been mandatory in 7
states as of April 2014 and 16 more states are in the
process of enacting legislation to do so. The boom in
the service sector has created a large requirement for
offce space and many air conditioned buildings are
being built at a rapid pace.
In addition to new buildings, retroftting of old
buildings also offers substantial scope for an energy
saving experience with many options providing a
payback period of two years. The challenge is to have
policy measures that encourage builders and owners
to take the required measures.
Central Government and some State Governments
have decided to have all their buildings ECBC
compliant and also retroft their existing buildings.
Figure 4.5 Source: ASHRAE 55-2004,
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS
55
To promote uptake of green and energy effcient
building standards by others requires frst that owners
are incentivised.
Property tax rebate may be offered. However, how
does one make sure that this is not claimed without
complying with the ECBC code? Building codes are
implemented by local municipal authorities and they
may be subject to various pressures.
One way would be to insist that the municipal
authority incorporates ECBC code in the municipal
bye-laws and that it obtains a BSS certifcate saying
that it has appropriate mechanism for certifcation in
place. In turn the municipality could be incentivized
by insisting on such certifcation as a precondition to
releasing funds under JNNURM.
The problem with residential buildings as also with
some commercial property development is that the
builders and eventual tenants or buyers have split
incentives. Since tenants or buyers want a low upfront
cost, builders have little incentive to invest more in
building a green building.
Even more effective could be quickening the process
of approval of building plans and reducing the cost
of obtaining building permits. The hidden costs of
delays for builders and tenants are large and these may
prove adequate incentive to go for green buildings.
Once again making sure that local authorities have
the needed mechanism in place to do this effectively
becomes important.
Among the barriers that need to be removed are
knowledge gaps about green building technologies
among builders, architects and users as well as poor
availability of needed building materials. For this:
Promote training programmes and knowledge
dissemination about green building technologies,
materials and advantages.
Strengthen the supply chain of green building
materials.
Some large private frms are also retroftting their
buildings. The diffculty will be with smaller
establishments. For them fnance for retroftting
existing buildings may be a problem. To overcome it
a special window should be opened in housing fnance
companies and banks to provide loans for retroftting
of buildings.
One can also set up a UKs Carbon Trust type agency
that pays up front to prepare project reports and
recovers the cost if the project is implemented and
fnances retroftting.
Apart from ECBC compliant buildings, a measure
that can signifcantly reduce energy consumption is
following Japans lead. Today in India, many offces,
hotels, conference rooms, and auditoriums are usually
chilled to uncomfortable degrees.
We recommend that law should stipulate that in public
places including offces, the AC temperature should
be set between 25 and 27 degree Celsius.
Providing fscal incentives for developers in the form
of additional Floor Area Ratio (FAR), reduced property
tax and reduced stamp duty for green buildings can
reduce any additional cost of complying with green
building standards. Financial incentives for end users
in terms of reduced interest on loans for green/energy
effcient buildings have been used in other parts of the
world and can be applied in the Indian context.
56
5.1 Introduction
The macro model considers several Autonomous
Energy Effciency Improvement (AEEI) options
in the transition from the Baseline Inclusive
Growth (BIG) to Low Carbon Inclusive Growth
(LCIG) scenario. The resulting analysis indicates
a reduction in 63 billion kWh of electricity, 741
MT of coal, 3 MT of petroleum products and 7
billion cubic meters of natural gas. Thus, there is
5.2 Iron and Steel Sector
The iron & steel sector is one of the most energy
intensive manufacturing industries, consuming about
25 percent of the total industrial energy consumption
considerable scope for energy savings in industries.
There are eight energy intensive sectors including
thermal power plants, which collectively consume
156 Mtoe. Figure 5.1 shows the sectoral share
of total industrial energy consumption in India.
Cement, chemical, and iron & steel sectors are the
most energy intensive industries. In this report,
we have mainly focused on the technology policy
interventions for these two sectors.
(IEA, 2011) and accounting for about 117.32 Mt
CO
2
emissions in 2007 (MoEF, 2010). Figure 5.2
illustrates the projected estimates for the year 2020.
The industry could reach production levels of 136 Mt
with a capacity of 165 Mt.
5 Energy Effciency in Industry
Figure 5.1: Industrial Energy Consumpton (2009), India (150 MTOE)
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY
57
Figure 5.3 illustrates the expected trend of total
emissions and specifc emissions in the Indian steel
industry, along the projected crude steel production.
The National Steel Policy has developed a roadmap
for the Indian steel industry with the objective of
attracting domestic and foreign investments. Its target
If the projected steel production trend is followed
as shown in Figure 5.2, the total emissions could
increase from 227 to 415 Mt.
is to reach crude steel production capacity of 300 Mt
with a production level of 275 Mt by 2025-26
1
.
Figure 5.2: Projected Capacity and Producton (2011-2020)
Figure 5.3: Total and Specifc Emission of Indian Iron & Steel Industry
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-182 018-19 2019-20
M
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260
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3.00
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200
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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National Steel Policy 2012
58
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 5.1: Strategic Goals for Indian steel industry
Figure 5.4: Cement Producton Estmates (million tonnes)
Parameter/Area Unit Existng Level Strategic Goal/
Projecton by 2025-26
Specifc Energy Consumpton GCal/tcs 6.3 4.5
CO2 emissions tCO2/tcs 2.5 2.0
Material Efciency percent 93.5 98.0
Specifc Make up Water Consumpton
(Works excluding power plant)
T/tcs 3.3 2.0
Utlizaton of BOF slag percent 30 100
Share of contnuous cast producton percent 70.0 95.0
BF Productvity T/m3/Day 1.9 2.8
BOF productvity No. of Heats/
Converter/year 7800 12000
R&D expenditure/turnover percent 0.2 1.5
5.3 Cement Sector
India is currently the second largest cement producer
in the world. Indias per capita consumption of 150
kg in 2008 was about a third of the world average
(Planning Commission, 2007). However, with a
construction boom and infrastructure development,
The minimum and the maximum values for the
specifc energy consumption (SEC) from 1950-60 to
post 2000 are illustrated in Figure 5.5.5. During 1950
60, wet process was the predominant technology.
This was gradually replaced by Dry Process. In 1980,
this number is poised for a steady growth. Most of
Indias cement plants are energy effcient. However,
the presence of several smaller units with high Specifc
Energy Consumption (SEC) raises the countrys
average SEC. Figure 5.4 illustrates the production
estimates till 2030.
several cement plants had a Dry-4 Stage Preheater
(PH) and Precalciner (PC) installed with the Dry
process. In 1990, Dry-5/6 Stage PHs/PCs, Vertical
Roller Mills (VRM) & Pre-grinders, and advanced
coolers had been installed in a few plants (dry
191
447
729
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007-08 2020-21 2030-31
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY
59
Figure 5.5: Historical thermal SEC over the last six decades
process in 90 percent of plants). Post 2000, double-
stream PH, pyrostep coolers, high pressure grinding
rolls, advanced kiln control system and Information
Technology (IT) based plant operation were in place
in some of the cement plants. Moreover, 96 percent
5.4 Energy Effciency Interventions
5.4.1 Iron and Steel Industry
Steel is predominantly manufactured by blast furnace
and direct reduction routes. The primer is treated
with oxygen based furnace to produce steel. It later
requires electrical furnaces producing specialised
steel by mixing with scrap and other alloys. There
are several possible energy effciency intervention
options in steel industries such as the following.
Coke Dry Quenching (CDQ): This measure is an
alternative to traditional wet quenching of coke. It
mitigates emissions, reduces dust and provides the
ability to recover sensible heat.
Injection of Pulverized Coal into Blast Furnace:
Pulverized coal injection is a process in which fne
granules of coal are blown in large volumes into
the blast furnace; this intervention saves part of
the coke production, thereby saving energy and
reducing emissions and maintenance costs.
of the plants were based on the dry process. These
innovations in technology have enabled India to
progressively reduce its energy intensity in the cement
sector.
Top Pressure Recovery Turbines: Electric power
can be generated by employing blast furnace top
gases to drive a turbine-generator. Although the
pressure difference over the generator is low,
the large gas volumes can make the recovery
economically feasible.
Recovery of Blast Furnace Gas: Blast furnace
gas can be cleaned and stored in a gasholder for
subsequent use as a fuel or alternatively to generate
electricity in a gas turbine. It is often enriched with
coke oven gas or natural gas prior to use as fuel.
Preheating of Steel Scraps: Using this technology
can reduce the power consumption of EAFs
through using the waste heat of the furnace to
preheat the scrap charge. Old bucket preheating
systems had various problems, e.g. emissions,
high handling costs, and a relatively low heat
recovery rate. Modern systems have reduced these
problems, and are highly effcient.
The projected emissions for cement and iron and steel
60
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
sectors under BIG and LCIG scenarios are provided in
Figure 6 below. The projections illustrate that in iron
Similarly in the cement sector, from the baseline,
about 5.8 and 23.3 MtCO
2
is expected to be avoided
during 2020 and 2030 respectively.
5.4.2 Cement Industry
Cement manufacturing is a linear operation. The
process largely involves making clinker from lime
stone by heating it in a rotary kiln, and later mixed
with additives and ground to a fne powder. Following
are a few important energy effciency measures
implemented in a typical cement plant
Replacement of the existing fan with high effciency
fans: There are numerous fans in a typical cement
plant, and these consume large amounts of energy.
Replacing these with effcient fans leads to
signifcant energy savings.
Use of high effciency crushers before the cement
mill grinding: This option leads to reduction in
power consumption. Large boulders of clinkers
or raw materials, which may end up in the rolling
mills could consume more time to crush into
powder. If a crushing mechanism is placed before
the fne grinding, it leads to saving energy and
time.
and steel industries, 23.9 MtCO
2
could be mitigated
by 2020 and 74.6 MtCO
2
by 2030.
High level control system for kiln operations:
The kiln is an important equipment in a cement
plant. The steady and controlled operation of
the kiln is essential for producing a good quality
clinker, higher level of output and lower energy
consumption.
Reduction of RPM (Rotation Per Minute) of the
Centrifugal Silo: Optimise the air supplied to the
CF silo for aeration and avoid / minimise venting
of air by reducing rpm of the blowers.
Installing high effciency fans at the clinker cooling
section: This intervention helps in reducing the
temperature of the hot clinker faster. Additionally,
this intervention could be coupled with a venting
system for displacing air through a wider area.
Increasing the grinding chamber size: This design
intervention could take more quantity of clinker
at a time for crushing and hence yield more
production output.
Replacement of the air-lift with bucket elevator for
raw metal transport to the silo: This technology
intervention eliminates the large compressor load
and reduces displacement of particulate matter in
the atmosphere.
Figure 5.6: Iron and Steel Emissions 2030
162.6
438.9
698.0
162.6
415.0
623.4
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
2007-08 2020-21 2030-31

BIG LCIG
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY
61
5.5 Implications and Policy
National Manufacturing Policy In 2011, India
announced its national manufacturing policy with
an objective to enhance the share of manufacturing
in GDP to 25 percent with an additional job creation
for 100 million. The policy encourages Public Private
Partnerships (PPP) with an incentivised approach for
large infrastructure projects, adopt cluster level model
of self-regulation, instrumentally under National
Investment and Manufacturing Zones (NIMZs).
National Mission on Enhanced Energy Effciency
(NMEEE) Under the National Action Plan for
Climate Change (NAPCC), NMEEE is one of the
eight missions. The objective of this mission is to
perform energy conservation and mitigation of GHG
emissions activities with a market based approach,
allowing cost-effective technological strategies.
NMEEE has four broad initiatives to include:
Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT): A market
based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness
of improvements in energy effciency in energy-
intensive large industries and facilities, through
certifcation of energy savings that could be traded.
Market Transformation for Energy Effciency
(MTEE): Accelerating the shift to energy
effcient appliances in designated sectors through
innovative measures to make the products more
affordable.
Energy Effciency Financing Platform (EEFP):
Creation of mechanisms that would help fnance
demand side management programmes in all
sectors by capturing future energy savings.
Framework for Energy Effcient Economic
Development (FEEED): Developing fscal
instruments to promote energy effciency
About 478 industrial units were notifed as Designated
Consumers. An estimated cumulative energy savings
of 6.686 Million tonne of oil equivalent (Mtoe) is
expected in the frst round of PAT cycle by 2015.
Figure 5.8 illustrates the energy savings expected to
be achieved from each sector and the baseline SEC of
each sector.
Figure 5.7: Cement Sector Emissions 2030
140.
0

305.5

459.0

140.
0

299.7

435.
7

0.0
100.0

200.0

300.0
400.0
500.0
2007- 08

2020- 21

2030- 31

BIG

LCIG

62
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Figure 5.8: Summary of Sectoral Energy Savings from First PAT Cycle
TPP
Iron and
Steel
Cement Aluminium
Pulp and
Paper
Chlor-
Alkali
Savings (Mtoe) 3.211 1.486 0.8160 .478 0.456 0.1190 .066 0.054
BL-SEC (toe/t) 0.549 0.088 0.394 2.005 0.656 0.166 0.393
Numbers of DCs 144 67 85 29 103 1 90 22
MAEC ( toe) 30000 30000 30000 30000 7500 30000 3000 12000
Baseline Energy
104.1 25.321 5.01 8.27 .71 2.09 1.2 0.88
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
E
n
e
r
g
y

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
M
t
o
e
)
The small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are not
covered by the PAT scheme. Some of these SMEs are
located in clusters. The BEE is examining some 25
clusters to see how these SMEs can be incentivized to
improve energy effciency. The SME program has an
objective to improve the energy intensity in the SME
sector, accelerate the adoption of energy effcient
technologies, monitor and evaluate the practice at 25
manufacturing clusters across India. The main project
activities are: energy use and technology analysis,
capacity building, implementation of EE measures
and facilitation of innovative fnancing mechanisms.
Currently PAT has focussed on eight energy intensive
sectors. PAT initiative needs further enhancement in
terms of
Widening by sectors: Inclusion of more additional
sectors such as petroleum, sugar, glass, chemicals etc.
Deepening the sector: Identify more industrial units
in the existing sectors and encourage them to take
benefts from PAT framework. A study by Center for
Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP)
evaluated more than 1300 potential industrial
units across six energy intensive sectors. The study
estimated the likely savings that could be achieved in
the next round of PAT Cycle.
Utilisation of waste/by products: Fly ash generated
from power plants could be effectively utilised
in cement manufacturing as a form of compound
mixture. Similarly, blast furnace slag from steel
industry is also one of the wastes which has potential
in cement industry as well. Better policy addressing
effective waste utilisation could be framed to suit
specifc industry.
Monitoring and evaluation mechanism: The
improvements in energy effciency by using
technology need to be closely monitored and
evaluated by placing an organised audit mechanism.
The process and results eventually helps in
benchmark the performance of equipment, process,
and industry.
Considering the various challenges in
implementation of the PAT scheme, in particular
with the SME sector, a carbon tax could be another
policy option to reduce emissions from industries.
It can be gradually introduced by having fuel prices
that refect opportunity costs including the cost
of CO2 initially priced at a modest level. Many
studies have shown that there exist, economically
justifable opportunities for energy saving. Despite
these, frms do not go for them. The barriers to
seizing such opportunities are often perceived risks
and availability of up front fnance.
A mechanism needs to be set up to deal with
these barriers. The UK has set up a fund, called
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY
63
Carbon Trust, which takes care of these concerns.
It gets, at its own cost, frm specifc project reports
which are prepared by hiring Expert Energy
Service Companies (ESCOs) for improving energy
effciency. If a frm agrees to implement the
project, the Carbon Trust also arranges fnance.
On successful completion, it charges the frm for
the cost of project preparation. This mechanism
has been quite successful. Enabling a similar fund
to encourage and facilitate SMEs to increase their
energy effciency in addition to promoting energy
effciency in buildings could prove benefcial.
References
1. Internatonal Energy Agency,. Energy Transiton for Industry-India and the Global Context. [Online] 2011.
htp://www.iea.org/papers/2011/india_industry_transiton_28feb11.pdf.
2. MoEF. India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007. 2010.
3. Planning Commission. Report of the Working Group on Cement for the 11th Five Year Plan. 2007.
4. Bureau of Energy Efciency. PAT Booklet. 2012.
64
6 Transport
Table 6.1: GHG Emissions from Transport Sector in 2007 (Mt)
Figure 6.1: GHG Emissions from Transport Sector in 2007 (Mt)
6.1 Source of Growing Emissions
Transport is a key driver of economic growth and social
development of a country. The sector is however a
major energy consumer. It accounts for more than half
of Indias total petroleum consumption and more than
25 percent of the overall energy needs (second only
to industry) (MoSPI, 2013). It is also a signifcant
contributor to the emissions generated by the country,
accounting for about 13 percent of the emissions from
the energy sector. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
from the sector amounted to about 142 million tons of
CO
2
eq in the year 2007 (Table 6.1).
Sector CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 Equivalent
Road Transport 121.21 0.02 0.01 123.55
Railways 6.11 0.00 0.00 6.84
Aviaton 10.12 0.00 0.00 10.21
Navigaton 1.42 0.00 0.00 1.43
Transport 138.86 0.02 0.01 142.04
Total (Energy) 992.84 4.27 0.06 1100.06
Grand Total (CO2 equi.) 1497.03 20.56 0.24 1727.71
Source: (MoEF, 2010)
TRANSPORT
65
Figure 6.2: Growth in the Number of Registered Vehicles in India
Figure 6.3: Components of Transport Considered in the Transport Model
An in-depth study for quantifcation of energy
consumption and GHG emissions from the transport
sector in India would help examine the impacts that
various policies might have on reducing the energy
and emissions from the sector. It would also help
in building alternate scenarios and analysing the
implications of introducing alternate technologies.
This chapter provides an assessment of various
energy and emissions reduction possibilities from
Indias transport sector in the year 2020 and 2030.
The assessment is done by starting with developing
bottom-up estimates of various national travel
demand volumes, and modal shares across different
vehicle types and technologies.
Given the need for working out a low carbon pathway
for the transport sector as a stand-alone exercise
for this report, a combination of a macro approach
along with a more detailed bottom-up module was
used. TERIs existing transport module was used
and further developed as a bottom-up transport
model designed to examine fuel use and emissions
from Indias transport sector. Passenger and freight
mobility by different modes were estimated and
projected based on regression analysis, the energy
consumption and emissions were ultimately estimated
based on the projected mobility demand patterns and
fuel-technology mix from across the sector. Figure
6.3 lays out the structure of the transportation sector
as covered in this study.
Source: Road Transport Yearbook, 2009-11, (MoRTH, 2009-11)
Domes c
Transport
Road
Passenger
Cars Taxis Buses
Three
Wheelers
Two
Wheelers
Freight
HCV LCV
Rail
Passenger Freight
Air
Passenger Freight
66
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Figure 6.3: Components of Transport Considered in the Transport Model
Table 6.2: Populaton Projecton (in million)
Projections have been made separately for road,
rail and air transport. Further, the different intra-
modal transport categories in road transport such as
cars, jeeps, two-wheelers, buses, etc. have also been
considered. Both domestic passenger and freight
6.2 Projected Demand
The main drivers of transport demand in any economy
are largely demographic and economic in nature.
These are perhaps best refected through population
(rural and urban) and GDP growth rates and their
distributions (agriculture, industry and services). As
shown in Figure 6.4, these parameters have been
used as the driving inputs for the present estimate of
transport activity.
The GDP has been assumed to grow at approximately
8.18 percent CAGR between 2011-12 and 2031-32.
traffc movements have been considered for road,
rail and air transport modes (water traffc moved on
coastal shipping or on inland waterways have not
been considered in this study). Figure 6.4 describes
the framework of analysis.
Indias population grew from 1.03 billion to 1.2
billion at an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent
in the period between 2001 and 2011. The share of
urbanization increased from 27.8 percent in 2001 to
29.8 percent in 2011. In this study, the projections
of future population and urbanization are based on
Scenario B of the Population Foundation of India
estimates, according to which the urbanization is
expected to rise to 33.3 percent by 2030 (PFI, 2007).
Figure 6.5 shows the sector-wise GDP projections till
2032 as used in the analysis.
Macro drivers
GDP
1. Agriculture
2. Industry
3. Service
Popula n
Mode speci c
variables
Average
u iza n
Load factor
Occupancy
Fleet
u iza n

Transporta on
demand
Passenger
transport
demand
Freight
transporta n
demand
Energy
consump on

CO
2
emissions
2001 2011 2021 2031
Total populaton 1028.7 1192.5 1339.7 1453.3
Rural populaton 742.6 834.5 907.1 951.6
Urban populaton 286.1 357.9 432.6 501.7
Source: Populaton Foundaton of India (PFI, 2007)
TRANSPORT
67
Table 6.3: Projected Demand for Passenger Transport
Table 6.4: Projected Demand for Freight Transport
Figure 6.4: GDP Projectons Assumed Till 2031-32
The transport demands across the different modes are
projected using regression analysis of the thirty year
historic vehicle registration information and traffc
The total passenger kilometres are expected to
increase from nearly 3,635 billion in 2005 to nearly
19,437 billion by 2030. Similarly, the estimated
volumes, and the resultant demand estimates are
reported in Table 6.3.
projections of freight demand indicate that the total
tonne kilometres are expected to increase from nearly
961 billion in 2005 to nearly 6,677 billion by 2030.
Passenger (BPKM)
Year Road Rail Air Total
2005 3,041 576* 18* 3,635
2010 5,240 903* 44* 6,187
2015 7,227 1,222 73 8,522
2020 10,146 1,740 117 12,003
2025 13,222 2,325 176 15,723
2030 16,277 2,904 256 19,437
CAGR (2005-2030) 7% 7% 11% 7%
*Actuals; Sources: Indian Railways Statstcal Statements, DGCA
Freight (BTKM)
Year Road Rail Air Total
2005 549 411* 0* 961
2010 841 601* 0* 1,442
2015 1,186 774 0 1,961
2020 1,918 1,117 1 3,035
2025 3,020 1,578 1 4,599
2030 4,517 2,158 2 6,677
CAGR (2005-2030) 9% 7% 8% 8%
*Actuals; Sources: Indian Railways Statstcal Statements, DGCA
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
T
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s

(
B
i
l
l
.

R
s
.
)
GDP (Billion Rs.)
2004-05 prices
GDP Agri. GDP Ind. GDP Serv.
68
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The shares of passenger and freight transport on
different modes are shown in Figures 6.6 and 6.7
While the share of road in total passenger movement
between 2005 and 2030 is expected to retain at the
84 percent mark, the share of road in total freight
Fuel consumption will depend on the modes and the
types of vehicles used for transport. It is seen that with
a move towards personalized modes of transportation,
as shown in Table 6.5, it is expected that there will
worked out on the basis of regressions reported in the
appendix to the chapter.
movement is expected to increase from about 57
percent in 2005 to nearly 68 percent in 2030.
be a diminishing share of road passenger kilometres
moved by the more energy effcient bus based
transport systems. This would increase the overall
energy intensities of road based transport systems.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Air 0.50% 0.71% 0.85% 0.97% 1.12% 1.32%
Rail 15.84% 14.60% 14.34% 14.50% 14.79% 14.94%
Road 83.67% 84.69% 84.81% 84.53% 84.09% 83.74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
%
Share of Various Modes - Passenger Kilometers
Figure 6.6 Share of Various Modes of Passenger Transport
Figure 6.7 Share of Various Modes of Freight Transport
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Air 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02%
Rail 42.82% 41.69% 39.47% 36.79% 34.30% 32.32%
Road 57.16% 58.29% 60.51% 63.18% 65.67% 67.65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
%
TRANSPORT
69
6.3 Specifc Energy Consumption
The fuel consumption from the transport sector
is estimated based a modes system specifc fuel
consumption values in terms of energy used per
passenger kilometres as shown in Table 6.6. The
effciency of both passenger and freight operations is
assumed to continuously improve through the entire
horizon period at about an average rate of 1 percent
per annum.
Table 6.5: Estmated Share of Passenger Kilometres by Vehicle Types
Table 6.6: Specifc Energy Consumpton
Figure 6.8: Share of Rail in Total Passenger Movement
Year Cars & Jeeps 2W Taxis 3W Bus/Omni-buses
2005 6% 13% 2% 4% 75%
2010 7% 14% 2% 3% 75%
2015 8% 14% 2% 3% 73%
2020 9% 14% 3% 4% 70%
2025 12% 15% 3% 5% 66%
2030 15% 16% 4% 6% 61%
Specifc Energy Consumpton TJ/BPKM
Passenger 2010
Cars & Jeeps 803
2W 398
Taxis 1,338
3W 619
Bus 196
Omni-Bus 502
Rail 71
Air 1,266
TJ/BTKM
Freight 2030
HCVs 1,125
LCVs 1,143
Rail 91
Air 8,925
Share of rail in total passenger movement by road, rail
Source: TERI Analysis
70
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The estimated share of rail in total passenger
movement decreased from 18 percent in 2000-01 to
14 percent in 2006-7. It recovered back some of its
share by 2010-11.
Given the relative effciencies of rail based transport,
increasing the share of rail for both short distance
passenger movement (regional, suburban and urban)
and long distance passenger movement is vital for
increasing overall effciencies of the transport sector.
The share of rail could be increased by capacity
augmentation and enhancement of infrastructure and
services to shift the time sensitive passengers from
other energy ineffcient modes to rail. The following
measures are accordingly proposed:
6.3.1 Increasing the frequency and commercial
speeds of passenger train services and taking
similar measures to augment the load of
existing trains
There is a need to identify and study the high density
routes across the country and opt for appropriate
options such as increasing the frequency of trains
depending on the demand and augmenting the capacity
of existing trains wherever needed. Increasing the
commercial speeds of the railways with a view to cut
down transit time could also help in attracting more
passengers towards railways.
6.3.2 Introducing High Speed Rail (HSR)
services
The number of passengers travelling by air has been
increasing due to the easy availability of low cost
airlines and the rapidly growing disposable incomes
in the country. Options such as high speed rail need
to be explored in addition to improving the quality of
current services. There are already some suggestions
for introducing high speed rail in India, by the Ministry
of Railways, across six different corridors: Delhi
Chandigarh-Amritsar, Pune-Mumbai-Ahmedabad,
Hyderabad-Dornakal, Vijaywada-Chennai, Howrah-
Haldia, Chennai-Bangalore-Coimbatore-Ernakulam
and Delhi-Agra-Lucknow-Varanasi-Patna (Indian
Railways, 2009). Introduction of such services could
lead to reduction in time and emissions if large shares
of traffc from air or roads can be moved to HSR.
6.3.3 Increasing rail based intra urban,
regional and suburban transport
Promoting rail as an option for short distance travel
is also important to enhance the share of railways for
passenger movement. Railways are not able to meet
entire demand of passenger travel in short and medium
distance segments due to capacity constraints. There
is a need to either increase the railways capacity to
carry more passengers or provide exclusive rail based
systems for carrying passengers. For example, people
commuting to Delhi from nearby regions such as
Alwar, Panipat, Meerut etc. for work every-day could
be moved to rail based transport through the proposed
Rapid Rail Transit Systems. There is also a great
unmet demand for increasing regional rail services
on branch lines of Indian Railway network. Providing
faster trains can shift a lot of passenger traffc. There
is a need to increase the pace of investment in such
projects.
6.3.4 Increase in Share of Rail in Freight
Movement
The share of rail in total freight movement has
been continually on the decline. While the freight
movement by railways has been increasing over the
years in absolute terms, from nearly 44 billion tonne
kilometres in 1950-51 to 601 billion tonne kilometres
in 2009-10, the share of rail in freight movement has
decreased from more than 80 percent in 1950-51
(Planning Commission, 2007) to around 43 percent
in 2005-06. Figure 6.9 shows the estimated share of
rail in the total freight movement by road, rail and air
(domestic) in the last few years.
TRANSPORT
71
The estimated share of rail in total freight movement
decreased from a little over 50 percent in 2000-01 to
about 40 percent by 2010-11.
Road based freight movement has captured much of
the growing demand for freight transport, leading to
an increased share of road in total freight movement.
This has been a result of the greater convenience,
fexibility and door-to-door services offered by road
transport. A McKinsey report estimates that the total
freight traffc would more than double by 2020 and
in the normal course, rail share would further decline
to 25 percent by 2020 (McKinsey & Co., 2010)
1
.
This would have further negative implications for the
country both in terms of fuel use and emissions.
Figure 6.9: Share of Rail in Total Freight Movement
Table 6.7: Average Lead (Year 2009-10)
Source: TERI Analysis
Source: (Indian Railways, 2012)
The share of rail based freight movement has been
declining on account of various factors. Activities in
different regions with newer and diversifed industrial
production centres have been reducing the distance
between consumption and production centres. In
addition, rail capacity constraints, expansion of road
network coupled with the introduction of multi axle
trucks, development of pipelines, and higher rail
freight tariffs have all resulted in these diminishing
shares.
Table 6.7 shows a snapshot of the average leads of
some of the major commodities carried by rail in
2009-10. These leads for freight movement on the
railways have also been on the decline.
Commodity Average Lead (in Km)
Coal 624
Iron Ore 406
Cement 577
Food Grains 1,300
Fertlizers 837
Mineral Oils 639
1
In countries like China and the US, the share of rail is close to 50%.
72
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The Vision 2020 document published by the Indian
Railways set out an aim of recapturing 50 percent of
the freight moving over 300 kilometres and more than
70 percent of the bulk cargo moving in large volumes
in the same distance range (Indian Railways, 2009).
These are included in the formulation of the alternate
scenarios for the present study. One of the ways of
arresting the declining trend and then increasing the
share is by augmenting the freight carrying capacity
of the Indian Railways and by providing end to end
logistic solutions for the consumers. Introduction
of more Dedicated Freight Corridors, as has been
proposed for the Western and Eastern corridors would
also help in the process.
(i) Introduction of Dedicated Freight Corridors
The Indian Railways has already envisaged the
building of dedicated freight corridors largely along
the quadrilateral linking the four metropolitan cities
of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata, commonly
known as the Golden Quadrilateral along with its two
diagonals (Delhi-Chennai and Mumbai-Kolkata).
These routes alone carry more than 55 percent of the
revenue earning freight traffc of Indian Railways
(DFCCIL, 2012). The existing trunk routes of
Kolkata-Delhi on the Eastern Corridor and Mumbai-
Delhi on the Western Corridor are highly saturated,
with line capacity utilization varying between 115
and 150 percent (DFCCIL, 2012).
These skewed traffc ratios require an increase
in the number of DFCs as are being built on the
Eastern and Western corridors thus helping the
Railways in getting back some of its diminishing
freight traffc shares. DFCs would allow trains with
heavier loads to be moved at higher speeds with
signifcantly reduced transit times and maximum
speeds of freight trains up to 100 kmph. It has also
been estimated that the introduction of such DFCs
would help to reduce the overall emissions from
freight transport. Several studies have shown that
there will be a signifcant drop in the emissions
under the DFC scenarios [(Pangotra & Shukla);
(Ernst & Young)], refer Figure 6.10.
Figure 6.10: Emissions in Various Scenarios
Source: Pangotra & Shukla, 2012
(ii) Development of Terminals including Logis-
tic Parks
Indian Railways is currently a transport provider.
As major railway systems internationally have
already done, there is a need for the Indian
Railways for gradually transforming itself into a
logistics services provider. It is important that the
Indian Railways provides the end-to-end freight
movement services to increase its share in freight
transport. Development of terminals including
logistics parks is therefore critical to ensure that
the Indian Railways does not lose out much of its
share of freight transport to the roadways.
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73
Table 6.8: Share of Various Commodites in total rail transport (Year 2011-12)
Table 6.9: Share of Road and Rail in Net Tonne Kilometres Commodites in 2007-08
Table 6.10: Share of Road and Rail in Net Tonne Carried of Some Commodites in 2007-08
Source: Ministry of Railways, Yearbook 2011-12
Source: (RITES, 2012)
Source: (RITES, 2012)
(iii) Diversifcation of the Freight Commodity
Basket
The Indian Railways has largely become a transporter
of only bulk commodities. An increased focus on
The growth of freight traffc on railways was lower
than growth rate of GDP in Eleventh FYP due to slow
down in core sectors such as coal, steel etc. (Planning
Commission, 2012).
diversifying the railway commodity basket to increase
the share of mobility of freight on railways is crucial.
Table 6.8 shows the share of various commodities in
total rail based movement.
However, even in the movement of such bulk
commodities, the railways have been losing some of
its modal share to the roads. Table 6.9 shows the share
of road and rail in Net Tonne Kilometres of some
commodities in 2007-08.
Commodity Share (in %)
Coal 43.66
Iron Ore 6.04
Cement 9.29
Food Grains 8.69
Chemical Manures 6.56
2007-08 Share in Net Tonne Kilometres
Share of Road Share of Rail
Coal 3% 97%
Food grains 62% 38%
Iron and Steel 41% 59%
Fertlizers 46% 54%
Cement and Cement Structures 18% 82%
POL 38% 62%
Iron Ore 12% 88%
Limestone and Dolomite 0% 100%
Other 84% 16%
2007-08 Share in Net Tonne Carried
Share of Road Share of Rail
Food grains 90% 10%
Iron and Steel 69% 31%
Fertlizers 81% 19%
74
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 6.10 shows the share of road and rail in net
tonne carried of some commodities in 2007-08.
The Indian Railways needs to enlarge its commodity
basket and penetrate into the non-bulk commodity
market to increase the share in the freight movement.
Some of the areas where it is important for railways to
(iv) Increased Capacities to Handle Container
Traffc
The increasing economic growth in the last decade
has caused an increase in the demand for movement
of white goods in India. This has led to the growth
of container traffc across India. Therefore, the
Indian Railways also has to take adequate measures
to ensure that such traffc is not lost to the roadways
due to the lack of rail based infrastructure to handle
container traffc. The formation of the Container
Corporation of India and the subsequent permissions
to allow private players in the market has helped
increase this traffc on the Indian Railways only
to a certain extent. The increasing traffc would
require the railways to take measures for retaining
focus are automobiles, chemicals and petroleum, oil
and lubricants (POL), oversized consignments such
as machineries (Over Dimensional Consignments),
manuvfactured goods and agro-products. Table 6.11
shows the Rail and Road Shares in Inter-regional
commodity traffc 2007-08 (NTKMS).
and further enhancing its share in container traffc.
(v) Better Pricing of Freight Services
The rail freight tariff in India is much higher compared
to many other countries such as Russia, China and
Japan due to the cross-subsidization of the freight
revenues for passenger businesses. On an index of
100 (assuming average freight revenue per tonne
kilometre in USA to be 100), the average freight
revenue per tonne kilometre is 395 in case of India,
the number is 122, 185, 207 in case of Russia, China
and Japan respectively (Indian Railways, 2009). The
fare freight ratio
2
in India has decreased from 0.326 in
the year 2004-05 to 0.273 in the year 2009-10
3
.
Table 6.11: Rail and Road Shares in Inter-regional commodity trafc 2007-08 (NTKMS)
Figure 6.11: Rato of Average Passenger Fare to Average Freight Fares
Rail and Road Shares in Inter-regional commodity trafc 2007-08 (NTKMS)
Road Rail
Three Wheelers and Two Wheelers 100.00 0.00
Chemicals (All Types) 95.17 4.83
POL Products (Liquid*) 60.10 39.90
Heavy machineries, Tractors etc. 99.42 0.58
* Excluding pipelines; Source: RITES, 2012
Source: White Paper, Indian Railways, 2009-10
2
Fare Freight Ratio= (Average rate charged per passenger kilometre/Average rate charged per tonne kilometre)
3
Source: Ministry of Railways (Data Source), Authors Calculations

The ratio is 1.4 in case of Korea and 1.2 in case of China (Source: White Paper, Indian Railways, 2009)
TRANSPORT
75
Better pricing mechanisms need to be evaluated and
introduced by the railways to induce more freight
traffc onto the railways.
6.3.5 Increase in Share of Public Transport
The share of public transport is estimated to have
declined over the years against private cars, two
Figure 6.13 shows the share of various modes in total
passenger movement in passenger kilometres by road
in past few years.
The challenge lies in improving public transport
wheelers and para-transit modes such as three
wheelers, rural transport vehicles and mini buses
operated by private operators. However, public
transport is an important element in the low carbon
strategies of the country and can play a crucial role in
providing sustainable mobility in Indian cities.
systems so as to augment the share of buses in the
total passenger kilometres. In addition to reducing
CO2 emissions from the transport sector, augmenting
the share of public transport is considered socially
desirable because it provides higher mobility to
Figure 6.13: Estmated Share of Various Modes in Total Passenger Movement by Road
Figure 6.12: Passenger and Freight Yields
Source: Planning Commission, 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of various modes in passenger transport
Cars&Jeeps 2W Taxis 3W Bus Omni-Bus
76
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
poorer sections of the society who cannot afford
personal vehicles such as cars and two wheelers.
Therefore, expansion of public transport in the form
of large capacity buses, light rail transit and metro or
suburban rail can be feasible emissions mitigation
options for the transport sector.
Bus based public transport systems may be more
appropriate for a country like India with serious capital
constraints. Successful examples of bus based public
transport systems can be found in Latin American
countries such as Bogot, Curitiba and Mexico City.
Ahmedabad has also set up a network of BRTS (bus
rapid transit system) roads.
Accordingly, in the low carbon scenario, the share
of passenger movement by buses in total passenger
movement is assumed to increase.
6.3.6 Increase in share of alternative fuels in
overall fuel mix
Clean fuel can play a signifcant role in reducing
vehicular particulate emissions in India, particularly
for criterion pollutants. Given that vehicle and fuel
technology for natural gas is available today at
relatively affordable prices as compared to other
alternative fuel vehicles, CNG might be an optional
alternate fuel choice for India. In addition, increasing
the share of CNG vehicles can have other strong
benefts such as improving the air quality in urban
areas, improving energy security and reducing
government spending on fuel subsidies.
The number of CNG cars and taxies in India grew
from 23,166 in 2001 to 439,250 in the year 2011.
In the year 2011, Delhi (64 percent) had the highest
share of CNG cars followed by Gujarat (18 percent)
and Maharashtra (15 percent). According to Scenario
2 of the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020
(NEMMP 2020), the share of CNG cars will be 30 to
35 percent in new vehicle sales by 2020 (Ministry of
Heavy Industries, 2013).
In 1999, CNG buses were introduced in only two cities
of India. However, by the end of 2009, CNG buses
were operating in ten cities of India namely, Delhi,
Mumbai, Vadodara, Surat, Ankleshwar, Lucknow,
Agra, Kanpur, Vijayawada and Hyderabad. As a
result, the number of CNG buses in India grew from
12 in 1999 to 16372 in 2009. According to Scenario
2 of NEMMP 2020 the share of CNG buses in new
sales of buses will be between 30 to 35 percent. Apart
from the increase in CNG vehicles, an increase in
electric vehicles is also assumed in the low carbon
scenario. Given that electric vehicles have higher
operational effciencies than internal combustion
engines, increasing the shares of electric vehicles is
expected to increase the overall energy effciencies
of the transport sector and reduction of energy
demands. In fact electric vehicles in the form of
electric-rickshaws are already making appearances in
several urban centres across the country under largely
unregulated conditions to meet unmet public needs. In
addition, several large Indian auto manufacturers are
already moving towards adding electric cars in their
production line. But, all these shifts to alternative fuel
can be sustained only with continuous Government
policy interventions and support.
Even in the case of the Railways, the low carbon
scenario corridor increased electrifcation of railway
routes to get the benefts of increased effciency of
electric traction.
6.3.7 Increase in non-motorized transport
The present investment patterns in the transport sector
are focussed at improving mobility of motorized
vehicles rather than people. Slow moving vehicles
such as bicycles and rickshaws have been assigned
lower importance as compared to motorised transport
modes. There is a need to rethink the conventional
hierarchy of road users and better planning and
designing of road infrastructure so as to arrest the
decline of non-motorised transport.
A citys infrastructure should therefore be designed
to meet the needs of pedestrians, cyclists and non-
motorized rickshaws not only for environmental
sustainability but also for social and economic
sustainability. Transport and land-use patterns in Indian
cities are different from cities in western countries.
Indian cities consume less energy from transport and
are characterised by high population densities, mixed
land use, short trip distances, and high proportion of
pedestrian and non-motorized transport. Therefore,
TRANSPORT
77
ensuring safe road infrastructure to pedestrians and
cyclists by measures such as segregation of road space
for non-motorized transport or reducing the speed of
motorized traffc will also make Indian cities more
inclusive by providing mobility to urban poor who
cannot afford any form of motorized transportation.
Sustainable transport systems therefore need to be
designed to cater to both the captive and choice riders
of non-motorized transport modes such as the cycles,
and infrastructure should be improved to enable more
walk trips.
Given the above mentioned social and environmental
benefts of promoting non-motorized transport, the
low carbon scenarios assume better designed road
infrastructure to increase NMT activity. The increase
in the share of non-motorized transport modes in the
low carbon scenario is represented by a reduction in
the total passenger kilometres travelled (representative
of motorized transport).
6.3.8 Improving effciency of vehicles
The number of registered road vehicles in India has
been increasing at over 12 percent between 1981-2011
(MoRTH, 2009-11). This is a huge concern from the
point of view of both energy consumption as well as
emissions. It is important to introduce fuel effciency
norms for the automobile industry to address both the
energy and climate challenges.
In order to accelerate the reduction in average fuel
consumption of new cars introduced in the Indian
market, a two pronged approach is being put into
place (BEE, 2011).
Medium and Long term fuel effciency standards
for new cars which would provide a regulatory
signal to manufacturers to continuously reduce
the average fuel consumption of cars sold by them
over the next 10 year period.
Labelling of new cars that are sold in the market
with the labels providing the consumers with
information on fuel consumption of the car model
and the relative fuel consumption of the model
compared to other models in the same weight
class.
This strategy which combines a supply push
with a demand pull could enable a large scale
transformation in the automobile market (BEE, 2011).
However, these measures need to be taken up as
soon as possible for both passenger and commercial
vehicles for best results
4
.
Figure 6.14 shows the 2009-10 fuel consumption
kerb weight (i.e. unladen weight) data for all models,
as well as trend line for the data.
Figure 6.14: Rato of Average Passenger Fare to Average Freight Fares
Source: BEE, 2011
4
It must be noted that the Bureau of Energy Effciency, Government of India has already notifed the effciency of small passenger vehicles while this present
chapter was under preparation. The notifcation can be found at: http://www.egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2014/158019.pdf
78
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
India has also been aggressively pursuing fuel
emissions standards since the Auto Fuel Policy of
2002 (MoPNG, 2003). Although these emissions
standards which are built on the European format are
focused on the standard and quality of the fuel that is
used to drive road vehicles, increasing fuel emissions
standards also require advancements in engine
technologies to use these fuels. Therefore aggressive
implementation of fuel norms also has additional
benefts of increased effciencies.
Keeping these in mind the effciency of vehicles
in road transport sector is accordingly expected to
improve every year in the low carbon scenario.
6.4 Alternative Scenarios
Based on the different low carbon alternatives as
suggested in Section 6.3, a set of alternative low
carbon scenarios were created over the business as
usual scenario (BAU) as shown in Table 6.12.
The abbreviated names for each of the scenarios are
given below:
TPT_BAU Business-As-Usual Scenario
TPT_RAILP Increase in share of passenger
kilometre by rail in total passenger
kilometre
TPT_RAILF Increase in share of freight tonne
kilometre by rail in total tonne
kilometre
TPT_PUB Increase in share of public transport
TPT_ALT Increase in share of alternate fuels
TPT_EFF Improving effciency of vehicles
Table 6.12 Descripton of the Low Carbon Scenarios
Descripton of Low Carbon Scenarios
Scenario Overview Details
TPT_RAILP Increase in share of passenger kilometre by rail in
total passenger kilometre
Share of rail in total passenger movement by road, rail and air
(domestc) is assumed to become 25% by 2031/32
TPT_RAILF Increase in share of freight tonne kilometre by rail
in total freight tonne kilometre shif from road to
rail transport
Share of rail in total freight movement by road, rail and air
(domestc) is assumed to become 50% by 2031/32
TPT_PUB 3. Increase in share of public transport - Shif from
private vehicles to buses
Share of passenger movement by buses in total passenger
movement by road is assumed to increase to 75% by 2031/32
(shif from cars)
TPT_ALT (i). Increase in share of CNG cars Share of passenger kilometres by CNG cars in total passenger
kilometres by cars is assumed to become 15% by 2031/32
(ii). Increase in share of CNG buses Share of passenger kilometres by CNG buses in total passenger
kilometres by buses is assumed to become 10% by 2031/32
(iii). Increase in share of electric cars Share of new sales of electric cars in total new sales of cars is
assumed to become 10% by 2031/32
(iv). Increase in share of electric 2 W Share of new sales of electric 2 Wheeler in total new sales of 2
Wheelers is assumed to become 30% by 2031/32
(v). Increase in share of CNG Taxies Share of passenger kilometres by CNG taxies in total passenger
kilometres by taxies is assumed to become 10% by 2031/32
(vi). Increase in share of CNG 3 W Share of passenger kilometres by CNG 3W in total passenger
kilometres by 3W is assumed to become 17% by 2031/32
(vii). Electrifcaton-Railways - Passenger Share of passenger kilometres on electric tracton-assumed to
become 60% by 2030
(viii). Electrifcaton-Railways - Freight Share of tonne kilometres on electric tracton assumed to
become 60% by 2030
TPT_EFF Improving efciency of vehicles - road transport Improvement in efciency - road transport by 1% every year
TRANSPORT
79
Figure 6.15: Emissions Reducton Potentals Under Diferent Scenarios
Figure 6.16: Emission Under Various Scenarios in 2020 and 2030
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
M
T

C
O
2
Emissions under di erent scenarios (MT CO
2
)
Emissions-BAU TPT_RAILP TPT_RAILF TPT_PUB TPT_ALT TPT_EFF
The expected reduction in emissions across each of the alternative scenarios in 2020 and 2030 is given in Figure
6.16.

441
430
423 428
440
403
820
776
752 757
812
684
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Emissions in 2020
Emissions in 2030
80
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 6.13 Emissions levels in 2020 and 2030 under the various scenarios
Scenario
Emissions (MT CO2)
2020
Emissions (MT CO2)
2030
Percentage drop over
2020 BAU
Percentage drop 2030
BAU
TPT_BAU 441 820 - -
TPT_RAILP 430 776 3% 5%
TPT_RAILF 423 752 4% 8%
TPT_PUB 428 757 3% 8%
TPT_ALT 440 812 - 1%
TPT_EFF 403 684 9% 17%
The total cumulative emissions reductions from
the transport sector if all the alternate scenarios are
implemented together is expected to be signifcant
though it will be less than the sum of reductions in all
the measures taken one at a time.
The largest impact is seen to come from increasing the
effciency of the overall vehicle stock and by moving
to electric traction, with an emissions reduction
potential of almost 17 percent over 2030 BAU levels.
Other benefts accrue from moving passengers to
public and other rail based modes of transport with
potential emissions reduction of about 8 percent over
2030 BAU levels. While moving to alternate fuels for
transport in India is important to reduce the reliance
on single types of fuel and reduction in criteria
pollutants, the analysis shows that it might not directly
lead to a large reduction the carbon dioxide emissions
since one fossil fuel is simply substituting another. It
is therefore important that a combination of all these
efforts should be pursued to get the highest reductions
of emissions from the transport sector.
6.5 Implications and Policy
As seen from the various scenario results, it is clear that
there is a huge potential to reduce the energy intensity
from transport in the future. Increased attention needs
to be focussed on the railways, as it is by far the most
energy effcient mode of land transport. Necessary
action should be taken to ensure that the continually
declining shares of mobility on the railways, for both
passenger and freight mobility are not only arrested
but also increased.
For passenger mobility, with continuous increase in
the value of time, it is imperative to provide people
with adequate number of faster and more convenient
rail based services for both intra and inter-city as
well as suburban services. This would in many cases
require augmenting the present rail infrastructure in
terms of line and terminal capacity and rolling stock
for carrying additional traffc. Investments will also
be required for provision of new infrastructure in the
form of metro, rapid and high-speed rail services. For
freight mobility too, measures need to be taken to
arrest the diminishing shares of rail based mobility.
This can be done by frst ensuring that the sectors
where rail has a natural comparative advantage,
such as in carrying bulk commodities, do not keep
moving to road based transport. In addition, the
creation of dedicated freight corridors along the four
quadrilaterals of the country and expansion of the rail
network to cater to new ports, mining and industrial
areas would help to carry additional freight traffc on
the railways. The most immediate measure that needs
to be taken to retain the share of rail based freight
is the rationalization in freight rates to ensure that
businesses do not move to road because of cheaper
costs.
In addition to increased provision of rail based
transport systems, action should be taken to increase
the availability of public transport facilities across the
country. Starting by focussing on million plus cities,
adequate measures need to be taken to increase the
number of transport corporations offering formal
urban bus services. With increasing urban sprawls, the
extremities of the cities should be connected by better
public transport services to ensure that the potential
captive public transport users do not shift to private
transport on account of inadequate availability.
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81
With the rapidly growing numbers of private vehicles
in the country, the private vehicle feet also needs
to be made cleaner. Setting up the appropriate and
stringent energy effciency norms for India, as seen
in several countries across the world, would be
essential for reaching a desired low carbon scenario
for the country. Hand in hand with increasing energy
effciencies, a move towards cleaner alternate fuels
in the overall fuel mix for transport has the potential
of signifcantly reducing the intensity of criteria air
pollutants from motorized transport in the country.
Introduction of stricter fuel emissions norms also
leads to an improvement in vehicle technologies
which will lead to improved air quality. Although this
might not lead to an overall reduction in the levels
of CO2 emissions, it would help in improving the
quality of health, particularly in densely populated
urban environments. Further, to augment the use of
urban public transport, it is critical to ensure that last
mile connectivity is ensured. This need might be met
by the use of regulated electric vehicles which are
already visible in several cities.The recent growth in
several forms of improvised road transport vehicles in
rural and smaller cities are dependent on either diesel
or adulterated diesel mixed with kerosene oil also. A
better regulatory environment needs to be coupled
with enabling policies for fuel effcient or electric
vehicles to meet this growing demand.
While pursuing all these policies which are targeted
at motorized modes of transport, urban centres
should also be encouraged to integrate non-motorized
transport as an integral part of any urban transport
plan. As highlighted in the chapter, the benefts of
non-motorized transport would not be limited to only
achieving a lower carbon scenario for the country, but
it would also have larger intangible social benefts.
Altogether, such policies as highlighted in the
chapter have the potential to create a transport
framework, which would be both inclusive and also
one that would result in a lower carbon scenario for
India.
References
BEE. (2011). Consultaton Paper. New Delhi: Bureau of Energy Efciency.
Ernst & Young. (2011). Green House Gas Emission Reducton Analysis for Dedicated Freight Corridor. New Delhi:
Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporaton of India Ltd.
GoI. (2011). Census 2011. Retrieved December 2012, from Provisional Populaton Totals: www.censusindia.gov.in/2011-
prov- results/paper2/data_fles/India2/Table_2_PR_Cites_1Lakh_and_Above.pdf
Indian Railways. (2010-11). Annual Statstcal Statemens. New Delhi: Ministry of Railways.
Indian Railways. (2013). Annual Statstcal Statements 2011-12. New Delhi: Ministry of Railways.
Indian Railways. (2012). Indian Railways Annual Statstcal Statements 2010-11. New Delhi: Government of India,
Ministry of Railways.
Indian Railways. (2009). Indian Railways: Vision 2020. New Delhi: Ministry of Railways, Government of India.
McKinsey & Co. (2010). Building India: Transforming the naton's logistc infrastructure. New Delhi: McKinsey & Co.
Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India. (2010). India: Green House Gas Emissions 2007. New Delhi:
MoEF.
Ministry of Heavy Industries. (2013). Natonal Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020. New Delhi: Ministry of Heavy
Industries.
MoEF. (2010). India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007. New Delhi: Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government
of India.
MoPNG. (2003, October 6). Press Informaton Bureau. Retrieved November 10, 2013, from Press Informaton Bureau -
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas: htp://pib.nic.in/archieve/lreleng/lyr2003/roct2003/06102003/r0610200313.
html
MoRTH. (2010). Basic Road Statstcs of India. New Delhi: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.
82
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
MoRTH. (2009-11). Road Transport Yearbook. New Delhi: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of
India.
MoSPI. (2013). Energy Statstcs 2013, Ministry of Statstcs and Programme Implementaton.
Pangotra, P., & Shukla, P. (2012). Infrastructure for Low-Carbon Transport in India:A Case Study of the Delhi-Mumbai
Dedicated Freight Corridor. New Delhi: UNEP Ris Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development.
Planning Commission. (2013). 12th Five Year Plan. New Delhi: Planning Commission.
Planning Commission. (2012). 12th Plan Working Group Report on Railways. New Delhi: Planning Commission.
Planning Commission. (2007). The Working Group Report on Road Transport for the 11th Plan(2007-12). New Delhi:
Planning Commission, Government of India.
RITES. (2012). Total Transport System System Study on Trafc Flows & Modal Costs (Highways, Railways, Airways &
Coastal Shipping). New Delhi: Planning Commission.
TERI. (2006). Natonal Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030. New Delhi: Ofce of the Principal Scientfc
Advisor, Government of India .
TERI. (2006). Natonal Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030. TERI.
TERI. (2011). TEDDY 2011. New Delhi: The Energy and Resources Insttute.
Additonal Reading
CAG. (2012). Indian Railways' environmental management audit report. New Delhi: CAG.
CSE. (2010). Air Quality and Public Health. Retrieved January 20, 2012, from Center for Science and Environment:
htp://www.cseindia.org/node/207
Directorate General of Civil Aviaton (DGCA). (2011, November 30). DGCA Air Transport Statstcs. Retrieved November
30, 2011, from DGCA Website: htp://dgca.nic.in/reports/stat-ind.htm
PFI. (2007). The Future Populaton of India - Populaton Reference Bureau. New Delhi: Populaton Foundaton of India.
TERI-IISD. (2012). A citzens' guide to energy subsidies in India. Geneva, Switzerland: Internatonal Insttute for
Sustainable Development.
WHO. (2010). Decade of Acton for Road Safety 2011-2010. World Health Organizaton.
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Annexure : Regression Results for the Transport Sector
A bottom-up approach was used for determining the sectors energy demand requirement and estimating the
transport demand on each of the motorized modes. The modes considered for this exercise were road, rail
and air. Within road, passenger transport was assumed to move on cars, buses, two-wheelers, three-wheelers
and taxis. Freight transport on roads was assumed to move on heavy and light commercial vehicles. Using
historic vehicle stock information coupled with standard utilization rates, the passenger and freight transport
demands were arrived at for each of these road transport modes. Similarly, both passenger and freight transport
demandswere also estimated for railways and air transport.
To project the future traffc demand on each of these modes for both passenger and freight, independent
regression analysis was performed for each mode. Given the inherent serial correlation present in time series
data of transport demand, the CochraneOrcutt estimation procedurewas adopted for these regressions. The
resulting functional coeffcients for each mode are shown below:
Descripton of Modal Regressions Outputs
Category of
Transport
Sub-Category Dependent
Variable
Independent
Variable
Coefcient Const. Rho (t-1)
Road Vehicles Cars and Jeeps lncar gdppc 1.91E-06 -1.71E-02 0.682 7.46E-05
Two Wheelers lntwowh gdppc 6.28E-06 -5.20E-02 0.697 -9.84E-04
Three Wheelers lnthrw gdpserv 8.53E-07 8.49E-03 0.952 -5.15E-03
Taxis lntaxi gdpserv 2.32E-06 -2.07E-02 0.594 -2.99E-05
Buses lnbus gdppc 2.43E-05 -2.26E-01 0.712 5.75E-03
HCVs lnhcv gdp 8.18E-07 4.46E-02 0.932 -1.34E-02
LCVs lnlcv gdpagindpc 9.34E-06 -6.70E-02 0.704 6.98E-04
Railways Passenger lnrailpkm gdppc 1.06E-05 -5.25E-02 0.936 2.50E-02
Freight lnrailtkm gdp 1.63E-06 1.25E-02 0.806 -7.41E-04
Aviaton Passenger airpkm gdpsrvpc 2.63E-03 -1.88E+01 0.824 9.94E-01
Freight airtkm gdppc 1.11E-05 -1.10E-01 0.365 1.60E-04
84
7 Power
7.1 An Overview
Indias present electricity generation capacity is about
238 GW
1
and the electricity generation is 978 billion
kWh
2
. Coal dominates the generation capacity
3
(141
GW) followed by hydropower (40 GW) and wind (20
GW). In addition, captive power contributes about
39 GW to the installed capacity and over 128 billion
kWh to power generation
4
.
The results of the Macro Model in Chapter 2 project
total electricity generation of about 3400 bkWh in the
LCIG scenario. These numbers compare reasonably
well with the demand estimates made in several other
studies. The Integrated Energy Policy, 2006 (IEP)
uses historical elasticity of electricity generation with
respect to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and projects
total electricity generation based on constant and
falling elasticity over time for 7, 8 and 9 percent GDP
growth assumptions. IEP estimates total electricity
generation at around 3400 bkWh
5
. The International
Energy Agency, 2011 (IEA) used a bottom-up system
engineering model to predict Indias electricity
demand under different scenarios. Electricity demand
is projected at around 3800 bkWh for the year 2031 in
the baseline high-demand scenario
6
. Finally, the 18th
Electric Power Surveys (EPS) conducted by Central
Electricity Authority (CEA) estimates the electricity
demand at around3,400 bkWh for 2030-31
7
.
The results of the Macro Model highlight that even in
the LCIG scenario; coal continues to be the dominant
source of power generation. It accounts for about 315
GW of installed capacity and 63 percent of generation.
However, super critical power plants account for over
half of the coal based power generation, leading to
a signifcant reduction in the CO2 emissions. The
share of renewable sources (solar, biomass and wind)
increases from the present 6 percent to 18 percent in
2030. Hydropower and nuclear contribute 7 percent
and 8 percent respectively. Consequently, in the LCIG
scenario, fossil free sources account for 33 percent of
the electricity generated in 2030 as against 23 percent
at present. In terms of actual generation, fossil free
generation increases nearly fve-fold to 1100 billion
kWh in 2030.
Thus, the LCIG scenario has a signifcantly different
power generation mix, including a much higher share
of renewable sources. In this chapter, we assess the
specifc policies required to facilitate the above LCIG
supply mix.
7.2 Wind Power Generation
The Macro Model suggests a wind power generation
capacity of about 120GW by the year 2030, which is
more than six times the present installed capacity of
about 20 GW. The Model thus projects an ambitious
increase in the wind power generation capacity. This
is reasonable to expect since wind is cost effective
and the wind industry in India has reached maturity
after over two decades of experience. India has
Figure 7.1: Fuel-wise Electricity Generaton in
LCIG Scenario 2030
27%
Coal (Super

36%
Gas and Diesel
4%
Hydro
7%
Nuclear
8%
Solar
8%
Wind
8%
Biomass
2%
POWER
85
the worlds ffth largest wind generation capacity.
However, Indias installed capacity is relatively small
as compared to other countries such as the US, China,
and Germany. It is interesting to note that in the year
2005, Indias wind generation capacity exceeded that
of China and was comparable with that of the US.
However, in the last decade, China and the US rapidly
increased wind generation capacity to over 75 GW
and 60 GW respectively. In contrast, India added only
about 1 GW in the present year. This just highlights
the need for India to provide an impetus to the wind
industry by providing a stable and conducive policy
environment.
Indias wind power potential was historically
estimated at 49 GW based on a wind turbine hub
height of 50 meters and a land usage of 2 percent.
However, rapid improvement in wind turbine
technology allows higher effciency, larger turbine
size and installation at higher hub heights. Therefore,
several recent studies have reassessed Indias wind
power potential and found it to be much higher than
historical estimates. A study by Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratories (LBNL) estimated Indias wind
power potential at 748 GW at a hub height of 80 m
8
.
Other studies focused on state-level potentials in wind
rich states. For instance, Center for Study of Science,
Technology and Policy (CSTEP) evaluated wind
power potential in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh
9
.
Recently, Center for Wind Energy Technologies
(CWET), Government of India, also revised the wind
potential to 103 GW at 80 m hub height and assuming
2 percent land utilization.
The above studies have to be validated with
feld measurements of wind speeds and also land
availability. Nevertheless, these studies suggest that
wind resource availability per se is not a limitation.
Since wind is cost-effective, it can be a very important
contributor to Indias electricity generation mix and
plays a crucial role in meeting Indias aspirations for
energy security and low carbon inclusive growth. It
needs to be supported with appropriate and stable
policies. This report proposes the following policy
options for rapid wind power development:
National Wind Mission
Rapid wind power development in India requires
a mission mode approach with the creation of a
favourable policy environment, which incentivizes
private sector investments in the sector. Thus there
is a need for a National Wind Mission (NWM) to
provide the desired impetus. There is mention of the
NWM in the Twelfth Five Year Plan as well. Even
though wind power development will occur in the
states concerned, the centre has a major role because
coordinated development of wind power depends on
several issues that transcend state jurisdiction. The
Mission should address the below aspects of wind
power development.
Wind Zones:
In order to realize the estimated potential in the fve
wind-rich states, MNRE, in coordination with State
nodal agencies should identify high wind power
potential zones (more than 1000 MW each) and
develop sites to attract investment. A few states have
already made progress in developing such zones. This
will help accelerate project deployment by investment
grade analysis of wind potential, create common
transmission infrastructure, and enable balancing
through national level resources and better scheduling
and forecasting.
Tariff Fixation:
The wind tariff currently specifed by CERC is
based on a cost-plus model. This acknowledges the
wide variation in returns from different wind zones.
However, most states, have established fat tariffs
leading to several disputes with the generators.
This creates the possibility of two options: (1) State
identifes and notifes land on which wind projects
can be set up and calls for investment via a bidding
route, or; (2) State collects generation related
data and adjusts tariffs based on wind zone and
generation. Either way, there is a need for a more
rational mechanism for tariff fxation, which depends
on the wind resource. In the long run, wind zones as
mentioned above, will help in discovering the price
and help pave the way for a transparent competitive
bidding framework of project allocation.
86
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Fiscal Incentives:
Accelerated Depreciation (AD) and Generation Based
Incentive (GBI) were two important incentives, which
led to rapid wind power development in India. AD in
particular, was helpful for medium and small scale
businesses, which contributed to most of wind power
capacity. These were discontinued in 2012, which led
to a decline in capacity addition in last few years. A
GBI of Rs 0.50 per kWh has now been reintroduced
recently.
In the long run, wind should not require any central
incentives since it is a cost effective energy source.
Also, rationalization of state level tariffs should
adequately compensate the wind power generators.
However, in the interim, it is necessary to restore
AD and GBI to provide necessary policy impetus
to investors. These incentives should be gradually
phased out in due course when appropriate state
level tariffs have been established to compensate the
generators.
Repowering:
Most of the best wind sites in the country are
already tapped with wind turbines (greater than 500
kW) installed over a decade ago. There is merit in
replacing the older machines with taller, larger and
more effcient turbines. This may require providing
appropriate fscal incentives to developers for
undertaking repowering in those sites in order to
make it economically viable where necessary.
Transmission Infrastructure and Load Bal-
ancing:
The earlier analysis projects a wind based generation
capacity of 120 GW by the year 2030. Most of this
will be concentrated in the Southern parts of India.
However, these states on their own may not be able
to absorb the power generated and it will have to be
dispersed to other parts of the country. This will require
developing transmission lines for the evacuation of
power. Due to the intermittent nature of wind power,
transmission charges could be on a per MWh basis,
instead of the current per MW basis, with additional
costs socialized over the entire system.
Further, wind generation being intermittent, is
characterized by seasonal and diurnal variations.
This variability is predictable to a certain extent, and
recent international experience has indicated that
errors in prediction may be considerably reduced,
with appropriate sizing of the balancing area. With
increased contribution of wind to the generation
mix, more suitable forecasting and scheduling
mechanisms may be devised over a larger balancing
area. Additionally, wind power development will
have to go hand in hand with developing other fast
ramping sources such as pumped storage to manage
the intermittency.
7.3 Solar Power Generation
The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
(JNNSM) has set a target of 22 GW (20 GW of
grid-connected and 2 GW off-grid/decentralized) of
solar power by 2021-22. The Macro Model in this
report estimates solar capacity of over 100 GW by
the year 2030. The main reason for this is because
the cost of solar power has reduced signifcantly
in the last few years. Prior to the commencement
of the JNNSM, the Levelized Cost of Energy for
solar PV was around Rs. 18 per kWh. However,
following the reverse bidding auctions, the LCOE
has now come down to about Rs. 6 per kWh. In
addition, the cost is expected to reducefurther and
solar power is expected to achieve grid parity in the
coming few years.
The rapid reduction in solar prices provides an
opportunity of using solar energy for decentralized
power generation, close to load centers, both urban
and rural. Solar energy could therefore be an
important source for inclusive growth. This will
require developing innovative business models for
decentralized solar power as against the utility scale
solar being pursued as of now. Developing utility
scale solar power plants may be diffcult in the long
run given that they require large amount of land and
water (in case of solar thermal). An attractive option is
to develop a large number of 100 kW to 500 kW solar
plants located close to rural load centers and also roof
top PV systems in urban areas. These permit direct
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utilization of solar energy with minimal distribution
losses.
This section discusses several policy options for rapid
growth in solar power:
Fiscal Incentives:
At present, the Government of India is providing
Viability Gap Funding (VGF) for solar power
plants under JNNSM. This is a form of capital
subsidy provided to solar plant developers to ensure
bankability of grid-connected plants. A developer can
avail a maximum of 30 percent of initial investment,
or Rs. 2.5 crores/MW as VGF, which is distributed in
several stages. The tariff is fxed at Rs. 5.45/kWh and
Rs. 4.95/kWh for PV developers not availing fscal
incentives in the form of Accelerated Depreciation
(AD) and those availing AD respectively.
The corpus required to achieve the targets of JNNSM
keeping in mind the division of central and state level
targets (at around 2:3) is estimated at around INR
18,560 crore by 2022
10
. This is expected to come out
of the National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF).Clearly,
the VGF scheme is a short term incentive provided to
help achieve the targets under JNNSM. It cannot (and
should not) sustain the solar capacities mentioned
in this report. In the long run, VGF will have to be
replaced with a more performance-based incentive. In
due course, the states should take on the responsibility
of setting appropriate tariffs for purchasing solar
power directly.
Solar Parks:
Developing solar parks and associated transmission
infrastructure are important options being explored
by several states. The state provides a common
evacuation infrastructure along with the allocated
land to the developers. Recently two 4 GW parks
have been sanctioned in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and
an effcient transmission network to support the parks
has also been proposed. These efforts need to be
emulated in other states as well and smaller parks,
with an installable capacity of around 1 GW could
also be considered.
Decentralized and Rooftop PV:
Decentralized solar energy applications are attractive
since these generate solar power close to the load
center and have minimum transmission losses. Based
on national census surveys and GIS analysis, the
potential of rooftop PV in the country (commercial,
residential, industrial rooftops and rooftops of airports,
railway stations, metro stations and bus stations) has
been estimated to be in the range of 60-94 GW.
Residential rooftops in urban spaces are eligible to
avail the 30 percentcapital subsidy. Apart from this,
to make the business case more attractive, some
states are introducing the net-metering mechanism.
If a consumer generates more than the monthly
consumption, the local distribution company
reimburses the difference at a stipulated rate fxed by
the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC).
If the generation is lower than the consumption, then
the consumer pays the distribution company for the
difference at stipulated tariff slabs. Since several
state distribution companies are fnancially unstable,
targets for residential rooftop PV need to be increased
gradually and ramped up once grid-parity is attained.
Rooftop PV systems on industrial units generate
power for captive purposes. Since the areas of the
rooftops are larger, systems above 100 kWp can be
installed. Hence, RPO for captive consumers can be
invoked for these systems and the subsequent sale
of RECs used to improve fnancial viability. If the
industry owners do not want to invest in rooftop PV
systems, third party independent power producers
(IPPs) or system integrators can lease the rooftop
area, set up PV systems and sell the electricity to the
industry owners. Similarly for rooftop PV systems,
set up in public spaces such as airports or railway
stations, IPPs can lease the rooftop and sell the
electricity directly to the distribution company under
the scheme of a Feed in Tariff.
Decentralized PV systems could be an attractive
proposition even in grid-connected villages. The
RGGVY policies are mainly directed for off grid
villages. However, it is important to realize that even
though close to 95 percent of the villages are grid
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
connected, these do not receive reliable electricity
supply. The present policy framework doesn't
adequately incentivize investors for developing
decentralized power plants in grid connected villages.
In these cases, policies should be introduced to
encourage mini and micro grids to be set up along
with small scale PV (less than 1 MW) and CSP (1-3
MW) plants.
Solar Thermal Energy Applications
So far, the focus of solar power has been mainly on
electrical applications. However, there is a great
potential of solar thermal applications in industries
and waste heat recovery systems. This needs to be
supported with adequate policy measures. The policy
measures include using solar process cooling for
refrigeration and chilling (cold storage) in rural spaces;
and desalination. At present, MNRE provides capital
subsidies on solar collectors used in these applications
based on the area of the collector. However, there is a
need to align the subsidy scheme with the effciency
of the collector and not the area. Another possibility
is to consider a market based mechanism, similar to
the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) that has been
introduced in the United Kingdom. This monetizes
the amount of thermal energy that is generated and
utilized by any process heating application using
solar thermal energy which will require that the
development of Renewable Heat Energy Certifcates
gained can be normalized into existing RECs.
7.4 Nuclear
The models results suggest that nuclear power is a
crucial component of a future low carbon energy mix.
As it can provide steady base load power generation
at a high PLF,itis vital in managing the intermittency
associated with solar and wind power.
Indias present nuclear power generation capacity is
4,780 MW, almost entirely from Pressurized Heavy
Water Reactors (PHWR). The Twelfth Five Year Plan
also has a target of 5,300 MW for the years 2012-17.
Two 1000 MW Light Water Reactors (LWR), are ready
for commissioning in Kudankulam. Further, four 700
MW PHWRs are under construction in Rajasthan and
Kakrapar and should get commissioned in the next
two years. Finally, a 500 MW Prototype Fast Breeder
Reactor (PFBR) is under construction in Kalpakkam.
These reactors, when complete, will take the nuclear
power capacity to about 10 GW by the year 2017.
As per the analysis in the earlier section, nuclear
power generation capacity should increase to 40
GW by the year 2030. This is rather modest when
compared with the Department of Atomic Energys
projections of 63 GW by the year 2030 and 275 by
the year 2050, mainly from Fast Breeder Reactors.
We have chosen a rather modest capacity addition
because of the following reasons:
In the past, actual capacity addition is much lower
than the projections.
There is public concern about the safety and
economic aspects of nuclear power.
Large scale development of Fast Breeder Reactors
depends on the success of the PFBR presently
under construction.
Therefore, while nuclear power is important as a
source of carbon free energy, the likely capacity
addition is taken at around 40 GW by the year 2030.
In other words, nearly 30 GW would have to be added
in the period after the Twelfth Plan (for the years
2018-2030). It is justifable to expect that most of this
capacity addition will be from thermal reactors, and a
small contribution from the fast reactors. For nuclear
power to increase to about 40 GW by the year 2030,
several policy initiatives are required. Some of these
are discussed as below:
Promoting PHWRs:
Indias domestic Uranium reserves are adequate
to build and operate only about 10 GW of PHWRs
for 40 years. However, the Indo-US agreement for
cooperation in Civil Nuclear Power enables India
to import Uranium under international safeguards
for fuelling thermal reactors. India has considerable
experience in building indigenous PHWRs and these
are economical as compared to imported LWRs.
Therefore, there is a case to expand the PHWR
program beyond the earlier limit of 10 GW.
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Civil Liability:
There are plans to build up to 40 GW of imported
LWRs. However, some of the foreign suppliers
have expressed concern about the provisions of
Nuclear Civil Liability Act, which places unlimited
liability on equipment manufacturers. Therefore,
the government will need to take a decision on the
Nuclear Civil Liability Act, specifcally amending the
clause pertaining to extended warranty demand put on
the suppliers. India should also ratify the Convention
on Supplementary Compensation (CSC). These are
in accordance with the international civil liability
provisions.
Public Acceptance:
Large-scale expansion of nuclear power will occur
only when the public accepts and understands that
nuclear power is a safe and clean source of energy.
At present, there is considerable public concern about
the safety, economics and waste disposal aspects of
nuclear power program. Addressing these concerns
will require more transparency on part of DAE and
AERB in addressing issues pertaining to safety.
This will eventually be a determining factor in the
expansion of nuclear power program.
Reprocessing program:
Large-scale fast breeder reactor development requires
adding commensurate reprocessing capacities. India
could also explore the possibility of having the spent
fuel reprocessed in global reprocessing facilities.
This will help accelerate the fast reactor program.
7.5 Advanced Coal
Indias coal based power generation capacity is
expected to increase to about 315 GW in the low
carbon scenario. Thus, coal power will remain the
primary source of electricity generation in the country
even in a low carbon scenario. It is important to note
that 50% of the expected installed capacity in the
year 2030 is projected to be from supercritical coal
technology. Almost all of new coal based capacity
addition should be from super critical and possibly
ultra super critical power plants. This would help in
reducing emissions from the sector, as supercritical
and ultra-supercritical technologies are less carbon
intensive.
The observed heat rates of Indian coal plants are
usually much higher than their designed heat rates. As
a result, they burn more coal in order to generate the
same electricity and emit more CO
2
. Several causes
have been identifed for this, such as lower quality
of coal, low plant load factor, and dearth of skilled
staff. Chikkatur and Sagar suggest effciency-based
tariff setting in order to incentivize improvement
in observed heat rates. This involves the following
components: 1) set the tariff based on the median heat
rate rather than the design rate. This would encourage
plants near the median heat rate to improve their
effciency and push the median heat rate lower; 2)
incentivize improvement in performance over time.
This would encourage plants across the spectrum,
including those that are more effcient, to improve
their heat rates; 3) conduct periodic energy audits to
measure effciencies.
These measures would also promote coal
benefciation. Indian coal has high moisture and ash
content, reducing its quality. Coal benefciation or
washing reduces moisture and impurities in coal, thus
increasing its calorifc value. Further, as the equivalent
mass of coal reduces, transportation also becomes
cheaper. It has been found that up to 50 percent washed
coal improves the economics of power generation,
especially when the coal is transported to higher
distances. However, both the installed capacity and
utilization of coal washeries is low. While incentives
for higher effciency should increase the demand for
washed coal, steps should also be taken to increase
its supply - through improving utilization of existing
washeries and adding capacity as well.
Over the last decade, increase in domestic coal
production has not kept pace with growth of
installed capacity of coal power. As a result,
several existing coal plants face fuel shortages.
Fuel Supply Agreements (FSAs) with existing coal
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
plants should be prioritized over e-auctions in order
to improve the capacity factor of current installed
capacity.
Research is required in advanced coal technologies
such as underground coal gasifcation. This could
help in extracting coal in locations, which are
not conducive for conventional mining. In situ
combustion helps in reducing the emissions as well.
7.6 Renewable Purchase Obligation/
Renewable Energy Certifcates
Several state electricity regulatory commissions
have announced renewable purchase obligations
(RPOs) to promote renewable energy development.
In addition, Renewable Energy Certifcates (REC)
is a market based incentive available to developers.
However, though the State Electricity Regulatory
Commissions (SERCs) have voluntarily announced
their RPO targets, enforcement of RPO targets has
been weak. To provide visibility and commitment,
the states should be encouraged to enforce RPOs. We
recommend the following measures to improve the
functioning of RPOs.
a) Fixing of long-term RPO targets by SERCs: The
adjustment of previously declared RPO targets by
SERCs has created uncertainty in the RPO/REC
based market developments. To create certainty
about solar power requirement, RPO targets
should be declared 5-10 years ahead of time.
b) Visibility of Floor & Forbearance Price: At
present, RECs have price visibility only till March
2017. The uncertainty of revenue stream for the
debt repayment period beyond 2017 weakens
the bankability of such REC based projects. The
foor price and forbearance prices should be for at
least 10 years to facilitate fnancial closure for RE
plants and should be set at a levels that provides
adequate return to RE producer.
c) Penalty for non-compliance: For the development
of RE capacities to meet RPO requirement, strict
penalty for non-compliance should be introduced
by SERCs. The penalty amount for non-compliance
which goes to the government should be passed on
to RE power generators.
d) Multi time trading & banking of REC: At
present the trading of REC is one-time and can
only be undertaken by renewable energy (RE)
project generators within one year of issuance
of REC. This restricts price discovery and long
term multi-time trading of RECs. The trading of
RECs should be allowed for more than one year
and it should be multi-time tradable. Banking
of RECs for a period of three years should be
permitted.
7.7 Domestic Manufacturing
Indian solar manufacturing industry lags behind the
Chinese and US industries in cost of production of
solar cells. Despite the Domestic Content Requirement
(DCR) in JNNSM, thin flm modules from the US
have a large share in the Indian market. In the short
term, India is unlikely to achieve signifcant cost
reductions in cell manufacturing and may continue
to import cheaper cells. But, in the long term, India
can possibly develop new and ground-breaking
technologies thereby leapfrogging the learning curve
and securing a fair share of the domestic and global
demand.
The following recommendations can help domestic
manufacturers in the RE sector especially solar
by providing a level playing feld and creating a
sustainable, reliable and long term demand.
1) Capex Support for Solar Manufacturing: National
Manufacturing Policy has been identifed solar as
one of the sectors of strategic importance. Sectors
of strategic signifcance should be given special
thrust in terms of capex support in the form of long
term non-recourse loans.
2) Technology Upgradation Schemes for Solar
Manufacturers & Suppliers: A technology up-
gradation scheme for solar energy sector should
be introduced to promote induction of the state-
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of-the-art or near-state-of-the art technology in the
sector. Such a scheme to support the solar energy
industry for improving effciency, productivity
enhancement and attracting new investments
could be supported via the NCEF corpus.
3) Public Debt Financing: EXIM bank loans for
foreign equipment are available at 8 percent
interest rate (including hedging) with tenures of
18 years as compared to 13 percent interest rate
and 10 year tenures of Indian banks. Public debt
fnancing can be used as a mechanism to promote
indigenously manufactured solar equipment,
which will allow part of the debt to be funded at
low interest rates and longer tenures.
4) Tax and Duty Rationalization: There is a need to
rationalize taxes and duties on the solar thermal
and solar photovoltaic value chain to make Indian
solar manufacturing industry competitive and
to bring down cost of solar power.While certain
capacities should be developed through promotion
of local manufacturing, some components will
have to be imported in near future. Tax and duty
rationalization of these components will help in
interim.
7.8 Renewable Integration
The macro model suggests over 100 GW each of wind
and solar power by the year 2030. Wind and solar
power are inherently variable, and are therefore non-
dispatchable. Thus, integration of large scale wind and
solar power requires additional enabling technologies,
which can ensure smooth grid operation, especially
power delivery during peak demand.
We present an illustration of the impacts that
intermittent sources can have on the operational
fexibility of the Indian utility systems in case of
Karnataka, which has nearly 2 GW of installed wind
power capacity (Figure 7.2). This shows that wind
generation exhibits seasonal and diurnal fuctuations.
Wind power generation is highest during the Monsoon
months (July September). This also coincides
with the period of reduced loads because of lower
demand from agricultural and residential sectors.
The load curve is high during the months February
May, during which period wind power generation is
also low. Thus signifcant renewable penetration is
likely to pose two main challenges to the power grid:
Supply-demand mismatch and need for frequency
regulation.
Figure 7.2: Hourly load demand and wind energy generaton in Karnataka (2011)
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
At present, a few Indian states, which have high
renewable penetration, manage supply-demand
mismatch by curtailing wind generators during times
of surplus power. This results in a reduction of the
effective capacity factor and consequent loss of
revenues for the generator. During times of power
defcit, the utilities try and use fast ramp up generation
sources such as hydro or are forced to resort to load
shedding.
Therefore, integrating large scale renewable sources
to the Indian grid requires careful planning and
synergistic approach from various stakeholders. This
approach should constitute methods for: (1) enhanced
fexibility and utility cooperation; and, (2) energy
storage.
7.9 Enhanced Flexibility and Utility
Cooperation
The Indian grid of the year 2030 will need enhanced
fexibility of base load and load following units in
responding to load fuctuations. One way to prevent
renewable curtailment is to increase the fexibility
of base load power systems so that more wind and
solar can be accommodated in the power supply. High
levels of wind and solar can be accommodated by
increasing the size of balancing areas and cooperation
between utilities to maximize geographical smoothing
of the associated variability. However, nationwide
utility cooperation will require an interconnected grid
comprising of high capacity transmission networks.
The linking up of the Southern grid to the rest of
India`s North-East-West (NEW) grid in January
2014 is a step towards achieving inter-regional power
transfer by creating a giant frequency-integrated grid.
Further, the Power Grid Corporation of India Limited
(PGCIL) is currently implementing a number of high
capacity transmission corridors across the country.
The Indian grid of the year 2030 will require more
of such transmission infrastructures to facilitate
geographical smoothing by enabling inter-regional
power transfer and synchronization of variable
renewable power with conventional power stations.
7.10 Energy Storage
Most utilities manage the intermittency associated
with renewables by using hydro and gas generation.
Indias present hydropower installed capacity is about
39 GW and there is an estimated potential of 150
GW. Most of this is in the North Eastern regions and
it is not clear how much of this could be exploited
given the environmental and ecological constraints.
The LCIG scenario projects a hydropower capacity
of 75 GW by the year 2030. A detailed analysis will
help assess whether this is adequate to manage the
variations associated with solar and wind capacity
exceeding 200 GW. Such analysis is beyond the
scope of this study as it will require detailed granular
data on the seasonal availability of wind and hydro
resources and also projections of future load curves.
However, it is clear that the grid will require Energy
Storage Systems (ESS) to prevent costly renewable
curtailment.
Pumped Hydroelectric System (PHS) is one the cost
effective and proven option for energy storage. It is a
mature technology and has low operating costs. There
is an estimated potential of 94 GW of pumped storage
in India. The PHS system has a long lifetime and is
easy to operate. However, it is not clear how much
of the estimated potential can be achieved given that
PHS systems are capital intensive with associated
environmental and ecological challenges. Moreover,
PHS systems are location specifc and are often land
intensive. Therefore, alternate storage systems may
be necessary to augment the PHS systems.
Grid level batteries are an option to consider. Batteries
are fast-ramping devices and can be used to control
ramp rates before feeding power to the grid and avoid
Unscheduled Interchange (UI) charges. Batteries are
portable, can be customized and are easier to install,
thus making them increasingly attractive for grid level
storage. However, they still have high capital costs
with continued innovation and bigger production
scales; large-scale battery storage should become
more economical.
Na-S, Flow Battery and Li ion battery systems are
among the leaders in the international grid level battery
sector. Detailed studies are required to ascertain their
viability under Indian conditions. The critical aspects
to be evaluated are technical parameters such as
round trip effciency, self-discharge rate, cycle life,
specifc energy, specifc power, energy density and
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economic parameters like capital and O&M costs. It
is important to conduct studies of a range of storage
scenarios based on different levels of centralization
and connectivity to existing grids in India. The levels
of power generation and energy storage at the grid,
small community and individual building levels
should also be considered.
Presently, there are no Na-S battery manufacturers
and installations in India. Na-S technology has been
demonstrated at over 190 sites in Japan totalling more
than 270 MW with stored energy suitable for 6 hours
of daily peak shaving. The largest sodium sulphur
installation is a 34 MW, 245 MWh pack for wind
stabilization in Northern Japan. Several projects are
under development in Europe, as well as in Japan and
the US.
However, this battery has problem of corrosion
related to molten sulfur electrode container (stainless
steel) after few years of battery operation. The battery
operation reactions lead to the formation of sodium
polysulfdes, which are highly corrosive to the stainless
steel at high operating temperatures (above 300
degree Celsius). This leads to loss of battery capacity
and cycle-life. Hence, research efforts are needed to
identify better container for molten sulfur. Parallel
efforts are required to fnd out alternate electrolytes,
which can perform at lower temperatures.
7.11 Smart Grids
Smart grid is the evolution of the electric grid with
advanced communications, automation and IT
systems that can monitor and control power fows,
as well as, match production and consumption in real
time. Smart grid also provides the intelligent control
systems required for integration of intermittent energy
from renewable generation sources and integration of
electric vehicles.
In India smart grid technology could deliver additional
benefts of peak load management through curtailing
load at peak time (instead of load shedding), enhance
access to electricity for millions of households and
reduce huge network losses in the present electric
grid through increased visibility and control on power
fows.
Ministry of Power (MoP) has recently fnalized a Smart
Grid Vision and Roadmap for India with a timeframe
of ffteen years (2012-27) for the transformation of
the Indian power system to into a secure, adaptive,
sustainable and digitally enabled ecosystem by the
year 2027 that provides reliable and quality energy
for all with active participation of stakeholders.
Smart grid technologies have the potential to achieve
multiple functionalities in the power sector. For
instance, these can help in ensuring lifeline supply
(six to eight hours every day) to all households in the
country, by curtailing consumption of other categories
of consumers during peak hours. This will eliminate
the need for standby generation/storage arrangement
at residential consumers premises and also help un-
electrifed households to shift to electric lighting from
kerosene lamps and other carbon emitting forms of
lighting. These can also help in improving the quality
of power supply and thereby eliminate the need for
voltage stabilizers and other ineffcient equipment
at consumer premises. Large-scale renewable power
integration requires smart control systems for
effectively managing the load demand with supply
options. The Smart Grid Vision will help with demand
response for high volume consumers in a phased
manner, which contributes to mega-watts and also
bring about higher levels of energy effciency.
1
CEA (2014). Monthly All India Installed Generation Capacity Report, February 2014.
2
CEA (2013). Load Generation Balance Report, 2013-14.
3
CEA (2014). Monthly All India Installed Generation Capacity Report, February 2014.
4
MoSPI (2013). Energy Statistics, 2013.
5
Total electricity generation at 7 percent and 9 percent GDP growth rates is 2772 bKWh and 4198 bKWh respectively in 2031.
6
Other scenarios are baseline, blue-map, and blue-map high demand, and project considerably lower electricity demand by 2031 than baseline-high demand
scenario.
7
The electricity demand so obtained is at bus-bars, after netting out auxiliary consumption, but including T&D losses. Therefore, actual generation needs to be
higher.
8
Phadke, Amol; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Khangura, Jagmeet (2011). Reassessing Wind Potential Estimates for India: Economic and Policy Implications. Ernest Orlando
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
9
Sudhakar, Meera; Swamy, Deepthi; Mohd., Saquib; Sastry, Abhijith; Jain, Ritesh; Mazumdar, Bishal Madhab (2013). Wind Power in Karnataka and Andhra
Pradesh: Potential Assessment, Costs, and Grid Implications. Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy.
10
This is based on a ceiling of Rs. 2.5 crores/MW for SPV projects. Given falling capital costs of SPV, the actual requirement may turn out to be lower.
94
8 Carbon Sequestration
8.1 Introduction
Forests and tree vegetation play an important role in
the mitigation of climate change by absorbing CO
2

from the atmosphere and turning it into biomass
comprising of microbes, herbs, shrubs, climbers
and trees. Carbon is stored aboveground in biomass,
and underground in biomass and soil. Use of forest
products as fuel wood and in manufacture of
household fxtures and furniture is also capable of
enhancing the mitigation service provided by forests.
The increase in mitigation can be affected by direct
actions like increase and improvement of forest and
tree cover; and also by indirect actions like promoting
use of wood in household fxtures and furniture,
and encouraging adoption of fuel effcient stoves to
economize on use of fuel wood.
Forestry assumes added signifcance as investment in
this sector doubly reduces emissions intensity; frstly,
by increasing the forest carbon sink, and secondly, by
increasing the GDP. In a nutshell, the forestry sector
positively infuences the numerator as well as the
denominator of emissions intensity. Thus, the forestry
sector can reduce emissions intensity in two ways;
by expanding and improving the present forest and
tree cover to increase sequestration, and by promoting
more effcient use of fuel wood and replacing energy
intensive metal and plastic products with wood
substitutes in the building sector.
The responsibility to report on changes in forest
and tree cover in India vests with the Forest Survey
of India (FSI), which brings out the State of Forest
Report (SFR), every two years. According to the FSI,
the forest and tree cover in India has been registering
an upward trend. The SFR 2009 shows that the forest
cover grew from 69.02 mha in 2005 to 69.09 mha in
2007. The increase in tree cover for the same period
has been estimated at 9.17 mha in 2005 to 9.28 mha
in 2007. The general trend of growth in forest and tree
cover of India indicates an increasing forest carbon
sink.
The National Forest Policy of India, 1952, aimed to
bring 33 percent of land under forest cover. India has
launched the national Green India Mission which
aims to bring 10 million hectares of additional land
under forest cover by 2021. See Box 8.1.
Box 8.1 GREEN INDIA MISSION
The Green India Mission (GIM) is one of the eight Missions recommended by the Prime Ministers Council on Climate
Change under the Natonal Acton Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), in 2008. The Mission provides Rs. 44,000 crores
for greening 10 million ha in India. The Green India Mission recognizes the potental that forests and other natural
ecosystems have on climate adaptaton/mitgaton, food, water, environmental, livelihood security of forest dwellers
specifcally, and the naton at large, in the context of climate change. The Mission is therefore in a unique positon to
signifcantly contribute towards sustainability.
Over the past decades, natonal policies for conservaton and sustainable management have transformed the country's
forests into a net sink of CO
2
. From 1995 to 2005, carbon stocks stored in our forests are estmated to have increased
from 6245 m tons to 6622 m tons, thereby registering an annual increment of 37.68 million tons of carbon or 138.15
million tons of CO
2
equivalent. This annual removal by forests is enough to neutralize 9.31 percent of total GHG
emissions in year 2000 (Kishwan, et al. 2009).
The Mission aims at addressing the issue of climate change by enhancing carbon sinks in the forests and atempts
simultaneously to increase resilience capacity of the forest ecosystem while enabling forest dependent communites
for adaptaton in the face of climatc vulnerability. The overarching objectve of the Mission is to increase forest and
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
95
8.2 Sequestration Potential
8.2.1 Forest Stocks and Bali CoP Defnitions
Practices for management of wildlife protected areas
and other specifcally conserved forest areas resulting
in saving and maintenance of existing forest carbon
stocks can be grouped under conservation (CN) forests.
These are best areas for carbon service. Other forest
areas which are subject to harvests and are managed
according to prescribed working or management
plans can be put under sustainably managed forests
(SMF). CN and SMF are the terms used in the Bali
Action Plan in the context of Reducing emissions
from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)
1
.
Management practices of CN and SMF over a
period of time would not only result in maintaining
existing forest carbon stocks, but would also affect
an increment in their quantum due to natural process
of growth of conserved vegetation. Use of improved
and more energy effcient wood-burning cooking
stoves can also help in saving wood biomass and
thus contribute towards conservation of forests and
trees. Enhancement of forest carbon stocks can be
achieved by increasing the forest area, or the carbon
density and/or increasing the pool of carbon stored in
a given forest or wooded area. In this case, the basic
actions would comprise afforestation, reforestation,
agroforestry, and energy plantations (fuel wood and
biodiesel).
Carbon emissions in other sectors like energy
can also be avoided to some extent by burning
sustainably produced and harvested biomass instead
of fossil fuels, e.g., using energy plantations to run a
power plant, substituting industrial products that are
currently fossil-fuel intensive in their manufacture
(e.g., substituting cement by lumber) with wood
products. Summary of carbon sequestration estimates
of different forestry mitigation options is given in
Table 8.1.
tree cover to 5 million ha and improve quality of forest cover for another 5 million ha between 2010-11 and 2019-20
through aforestaton and eco-restoraton actvites by strengthening local community insttutons like JFMCs and FDAs.
Thus, the Mission will help in improving ecosystem services in 10 million ha of land, and increase fow of forest based
livelihood services, and income of about 3 million forest dependent households. The Mission is innovatve in several
respects:
First, it proposes a fundamental shif from our traditonal focus of merely increasing the quantty of our forest
cover, towards increasing its quality and improving provision of ecosystem goods and services.
Second, the Mission proposes to take a holistc view of greening, not merely focus on plantatons to meet carbon
sequestraton targets. There is a clear and more important focus on enhancing biodiversity, restoring ecosystems
and habitat diversity.
Third, there is a deliberate and major focus on autonomy and decentralizaton.
The Mission will be implemented through an autonomous organizatonal structure with a view to reducing delays
and rigidity, while ensuring accountability. The mission will help local communites at the heart of implementaton,
with the Gram Sabha as the overarching insttuton overseeing Mission implementaton at the village-level. The Joint
Forest Management Commitee would be revamped as Commitees of the Gram Sabha. This is in consonance with
the fact that forests are a source of livelihood for over 200 million people in the country, and hence centrality of their
partcipaton is critcal. A key innovaton is the idea of engaging a cadre of young Community Foresters, most of
whom will be from scheduled tribes and other forest dwelling communites, to facilitate planning, implementaton and
monitoring of Mission actvites at local level.
1
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is a mechanism that has been under negotiation by the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 2005, with the twin objectives of mitigating climate change through reducing emissions of greenhouse gases
and removing greenhouse gases through enhanced forest management in developing countries.
96
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Table 8.1 Summary of Carbon Sequestraton Estmates of Diferent Forestry Mitgaton
Opton Net Carbon Sequestraton
Conservaton and Improvement of Existng Forests
(1) Protected Areas
(PAs)
Avoided emissions from deforestaton and forest degradaton through conservaton of existng protected
areas (PAs) covering 16 mha of forest land and accountng for 5 percent of the geographical area of the country
are capable of adding 2 tonne of dry biomass per ha on an average every year. Contnued protecton of PAs will
add 47 mtCO
2
eq to forest carbon sink every year. (16*2.0*0.4= 12.8 mtC= 47.0 mtCO
2
eq)
(2) Sustainable
Management of
Forests other than
PAs
Unlike PAs where no harvests are allowed, other forests (53 mha) in general are subject to sustainable harvests.
However, quantty of wood removed is less than annual increment resultng in net additon of forest carbon
stocks. Such managed forests are capable of adding 0.8 tonne of dry biomass per ha every year. These forest
areas being managed for sustainable harvests are adding 62.0 mtCO
2
eq to the forest carbon sink every year.
(53*0.8* 0.4= 16.96 mtC= 62.0 mtCO
2
eq)
(3)Improvement
in Forest and Tree
Cover
Aims at improving 1 mha area each of open forests and medium dense forests with a view to upgrading these
forests to the next higher category, i.e., open forest (OF) to medium dense forest (MDF), and medium dense
forest to very dense forest category (VDF). Underlying assumpton of carbon enhancement is that upgradaton
of OF to MDF and MDF to VDF will respectvely add 0.2 and 0.3 tonnes of dry biomass per ha every year. This
improvement is capable of adding 7.3 mtCO
2
eq to the forest carbon sink every year. (10*(0.2+0.3)*0.4= 2.0
mtC= 7.3 mtCO
2
eq)
(4) Improved Wood-
burning Cookstoves
Avoided emissions from excessive use of fuel wood in cooking stoves in rural areas (800 million people or 160
m families) can signifcantly contribute to increase in forest carbon stocks by replacing ordinary cooking stoves
with improved fuel efcient cooking stoves. Carbon sequestraton is enhanced because of fuel wood saved due
to use of improved cooking stoves. Presuming that 75 percent of the fuel biomass used in rural areas comes
from forest, and also that cooking stoves can reduce the fuel wood consumpton by about 30 percent by
improving energy efciency, each rural family using fuel wood for energy can save about 300 kg of fuel wood
annually, and consequently will not extract that much quantty of biomass from the forests. Since the forests
from where the fuel wood is extracted are usually degraded, and stll growing, the entre quantum of fuel
wood saved would result in equal amount of biomass lef intact in the forests, thereby ofsetng corresponding
amount of emissions equal to 58.2 mtCO
2
eq. (160*0.75*0.3*0.4=14.4 mtC*44/12=52.8 mtCO
2
eq).
Aforestaton
(5) Increase in
Forest and Tree
Cover in Forest
Fringe Villages
Additonal area of 17 mha can be added by creatng forest and tree cover in and around 170,000 forest fringe
villages. Every year, on an average, 1.7 mha can be aforested/ reforested every year. This opton will sequester
an additonal 1 tonne of dry biomass every year. The village forests will include energy plantatons raised
for the purpose of replacing fossil fuel with renewables like fuel wood and biodiesel. Agroforestry can also
substantally contribute in increasing the tree cover in and around forest fringe villages. For calculatng, CO
2
eq
sequestered, it is presumed that 50 percent of the biomass every year will be removed by the villagers for
meetng their household needs. This opton has the potental of adding 12.5 mtCO
2
eq to the forest carbon sink
every year. (17*0.5*0.4=3.4 mtC*44/12=12.5 mt CO
2
eq)
(6) Green India
Mission
Although the mission is yet to be fnalized, on a very conservatve estmate, at least 6 mha of degraded forest
lands can be planted under the Green India Mission under the Ministry of Environment and Forests.
Wood Products Use
Management
(7) Harvested
Wood Products
Management (as
substtutes)
Wood products store carbon for a long tme, and encouraging their use in building constructon substtutng
cement by lumber, and metallic door and window frames and wall cabinets with wood based products has the
potental of saving 2 tonnes of CO
2
eq emissions for each cubic m of metallic hardware replaced
(8) Replacement
of ofce and
domestc furniture
using metals with
wooden furniture
It is estmated that at present 35 percent of furniture used in ofce and homes is made of metals and plastcs
(Anon. 2008). Replacing metallic and plastc furniture with wooden products would not only enable storage
of carbon in wooden furniture, but would also replace more energy intensive metal and plastc furniture.
Presuming that 50 percent of the furniture made of metals and plastcs can be substtuted by wood based
furniture every year, such acton would result in replacing about 1.5 million cubic m of metal and plastc
furniture, sequestering an additonal 3 million tonnes of CO
2
eq every year.
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
97
The proposed mitigation actions in the forestry sector
should be completed by 2030.
8.2.2 Costs of Actions
Mitigation actions proposed in this report are
estimated to cost Rs. 11,400 crore every year over an
action period of 10 years. The total amount required
for the 10 year period will be Rs. 114,000 crores. The
break-up for the annual cost of Rs. 11,400 crore is
given below:
Addition of 1 mha @ Rs. 50,000/- per
ha=1mha*50,000
= Rs. 5,000 crores per year
Upgradation of 2 mha of forest land
@ Rs. 20,000/- per ha=2mha*20,000
=Rs. 4,000 crores per year
Addition of 100 ha of forest in forest fringe villages
@ Rs. 10,000/- per ha=1.7 mha*10,000
=Rs. 1,700 crores per year
Improved 1 crore cookstoves
=Rs. 300 crores per year
@ Rs. 300/- per piece
Wood based products as substitutes (lump sum)
=Rs. 300 crores per year
Total cost of forestry mitigation actions
=Rs. 11,300 crores per year
The activities that can contribute signifcantly in
providing additional mitigation service over and
above the present level of contribution in forestry
sector are following:
i) Increase in forest and tree cover by 1 mha every
year: By afforesting/reforesting 1 mha of area
every year, either under Green India Mission or
otherwise, additional sequestration of 14.7 mt
CO
2
eq every year can be achieved.
ii) Creation of 100 ha of forest in 170,000 forest
fringe villages: This initiative will be able to
capture additional 12.5 Mt CO
2
eq every year.
iii) Improvement in forest cover: Upgradation of 1
mha of open forest to medium dense forest, and
another 1 mha of medium dense forest to very
dense forest category can help in capturing an
additional 7.3 Mt CO
2
eq every year.
iv) Harvested wood products as substitutes: If every
year, 1 million cubic m of metallic hardware
products are replaced by wood based products,
an additional emissions reduction of 2 Mt CO
2
eq
every year can be achieved.
v) Replacement of offce and domestic metal
and plastic based furniture: Replacement of
all metallic and plastic furniture by wood based
products is capable of reducing emissions by 3 Mt
CO
2
eq every year.
vi) Use of improved wood burning cooking stoves:
This is a very potent initiative and has the capability
of reducing emissions by 52.8 Mt CO
2
eq every
year (NSSO. 2002).
If the aforesaid options taken up simultaneously,
there is a potential of capturing an additional 92.3 Mt
CO
2
eq every year, by the year 2023 onwards, thus
neutralizing the quantum of emissions annually. The
additional mitigation service provided will be able to
offset an additional 5.3 percent of Indias emissions
at 2007 levels. This performance can be further
accelerated if the industry comes forward as part of
its corporate social responsibility. The industry sector
could create awareness amongst village communities
about raising tree plantations and orchards on private
and community lands with a view to improve the
socio-economic conditions of the rural people, and
also contributing towards climate change mitigation.
Needless to say, the initiative would be a win-win
situation for both, local community as well as the
industry sector. The former will beneft by enhanced
income generation and latter by having access to
increased availability of the wood based industrial
raw material.
Total cost of forestry mitigation actions is estimated
at Rs. 11,300 crore per year, whereas the value of
additional mitigation service
2
after 2023 will be worth
2
Value of forest mitigation has been calculated at USD 10= Rs. 550 for each tonne of CO2eq added to the forest carbon sink.
98
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Rs. 5077 crore every year. If the value of present
mitigation by Indias forest and tree cover (138.2
MT CO2eq) is added to the additional service by the
measures proposed in this report, the total mitigation
service from forest sector will be worth Rs. 12678
crore (7601+5077) annually 2023 onwards.
Role of coordinating and implementing agencies
will respectively be discharged by the Government
of India in the Ministry of Environment and Forests
(MoEF) and Forest Departments (FDs) of the State
While the Green India Mission (GIM) targets may
increase forest cover, pressures on land may reduce
grasslands. We have assumed a reduction of 10 million
hectares in grass land cover. We have also assumed
that the use of fuel wood for cooking will go down as
Governments. MoEF will be the central nodal
agency for guiding, coordinating and monitoring
implementation of the options. At the State level, this
role will be discharged by the Forest Departments.
8.3 Estimate of Sequestration
While the above describes the possibilities, we make
an estimate based on somewhat modest assumptions.
Table 8.2 describes GHG sequestration as per
estimates in Indias national communication. We use
these rates implied by this.
incomes go up and as a part of inclusive growth clean
cooking fuel in the form of LPG is provided as an
entitlement to all households. Of course some amount
of fuel wood burning will continue. Table 8.3 shows
the projections.
Table 8.2: GHG Sequestraton in 2007 by Forests (Million Tonnes per Year)
Table 8.3: Projected GHG sequestraton from LULUCF (in million Tonnes of GHG/year)
Source: MOEF (2010)
Notes:
2007 data from India's GHG Emissions in 2007, MoEF
Per hectare forest sequestraton from green India Mission in Interim report
Crop land assumed to change litle in net sown area basis
grass land loss assumed to stop at 10 million ha
Fuel wood use will reduce as LPG is provided though some will contnue
Forests Crop Lands Grasslands Firewood Total
MT of CO2 67.8 207.52 -10.49 -87.84 176.99
Area in Million Ha 67.8 181 61.3
Forests crop lands grass lands Firewood Total
2005 65 205 -10 -85 175
2010 69 207 -10 -90 176
2015 73 207 -10 -90 180
2020 83 207 -9 -75 206
2025 90 207 -9 -60 228
2030 90 207 -9 -60 228
2035 90 207 -9 -60 228
CARBON SEQUESTRATION
99
Other Ecosystem Goods and Services:
Carbon sequestration is only one among the many
ecosystem services provided by the forests. The
other services from forests support and supplement
livelihood needs like fuel wood, fodder, food
supplement and medicinal herbs, etc. for a large
number of forest dependent people, especially rural
and tribal communities. Forestry actions aimed
at reducing emissions intensity and described in
this report take due note of this reality, and ensure
8.4 Implications and Policy
Apart from implementation of the Green India
Mission, the green cover can be enhanced by a number
of measures that can augment sequestration.
The government should allocate adequate resources
under NCEF towards GIM.
A framework should be evolved wherein the industry
sector may be asked to allocate a certain percent of
CSR funds for enhancing green cover in urban areas
(city forests) and villages (village forests).
that forestry mitigation options do not result in any
hardship to the local communities on account of their
livelihood needs. It may be mentioned that quantum
of ecosystem goods and services is directly related
to the extent of the forest and tree cover. Therefore,
any efforts aimed at increasing and improving the
mitigation potential of forests will have a positive
bearing on all goods and services fowing from these
forests. (See Box 8.2)
Sequestration can also be increased by curtailing
use of fuel wood for cooking by promoting use of
improved wood burning cook stoves in rural areas
and by replacement of wood burning cook stoves
with less emission intensive fuels like LPG. Provision
of clean cooking fuels is an important element of
inclusive growth. While provision of LPG to all rural
households may take time, other low emission and
clean cooking technologies may be promoted.
As growing forests sequester more carbon than a
mature forest, the sequestration rate can be increased
Box 8.2 An outline for Measuring Ecosystem Services from Green India Mission
A Case Study of Paderu Project in Andhra Pradesh
Under the guidance of the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoES), Government of India, the pilot phase of Green
India Mission is being implemented in the state of Andhra Pradesh. During the current year, this is being implemented
in one landscape identfed in the Schedule V area of Paderu Forest Division in Visakhapatnam District. The landscape
selected in Paderu Division has 23 habitatons spread over 4985 ha out of which forests consttute 3200 ha (64.19%) and
outside Forest area 1785 ha (35.81%). Each Grama Sabhas (GS) has a Vana Samrakshana Samithi (VSS) which functons
as the forestry commitee of the GS, the total number of GIM Gram Sabha/VSS villages 23. Integrated Research and
Acton for development (IRADe) in collaboraton with Gesellschaf fr Internatonale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) worked to
develop a strategy for Measuring Ecosystem Services from Green India Mission Paderu Project in Andhra Pradesh. A
Monitoring and Evaluaton (M&E) framework was developed that enables monitoring at GS, Division, Circle and State
level. The concept of green accountng was also incorporated in the M&E framework. The objectve of the study were:
To measure the increase in forest and tree cover area in Paderu division
Measurement and valuaton of goods and services
Value NTFP and increased forest based livelihood income for forest dependent households
Based on primary surveys and stakeholder consultatons the report provides a detailed framework for collectng data,
monitoring and evaluaton techniques used and results. The results indicate that there is a great deal of role of Gram
Sabhas. It also pointed out which species and use is more valuable for whom and partcularly for women. This may
mean that the species should be selected by them depending on what they need most. This is critcal if GIM is to lead
to inclusive development.
Source: Parikh Jyot and Wankhade Shwetal (2012)
100
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
by harvesting the wood and locking up the carbon by
using timber in building construction or furniture.
This would also help in promoting sustainability
by replacing cement, steel and plastics. However,
implementing this requires a practice of sustainable
forestry.
References
Anjali Goyal, 2010. Ultra low carbon mega rail projects. Planning Commission\606 Anjali Goyal, Ultra low carbon mega
rail projects.mht (Accessed on 22nd March, 2010)
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Gurgaon, Haryana. www.ibef.org/download/Furniture_170708.pdf (accessed on 22nd March, 2010).
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Daily GC 1997. Introducton: what are ecosystem services? In: GC Daily (Ed.). Natures services: societal dependence on
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functons, goods and services. Ecological Economics, 41: 393408.
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Washington.
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project in AndhraPradesh, IRADe Project Report PR- 2012-32. Integrated Research and Acton for Development, New
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top.pag?docid=36738184 (accessed on 22nd March 2010)
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101
9 Development Linkages
9.1 Signifcance
The Macro Model (Chapter 2) has evolved a Low
Carbon Inclusive Growth (LCIG) trajectory, which
is based on a dynamic optimisation approach that
maximizes private consumption subject to commodity
balance constraints combined with inclusive policies
that improve human well-being. The report has
highlighted costs involved in the pursuit of low carbon
measures and has also evaluated the cumulative impact
of this pursuit on growth outcomes for the country.
Further, sectoral analysis in the chapters that follow
evaluates the possible impact on GHG emissions,
while hinting at some co-benefts, as well as co-costs
(i.e. possible development impact or additional cost
burden that is non-monetary).
This chapter places different low-carbon inclusive
growth policies within a broader development
context; recognizing that for India, poverty alleviation
and socio-economic development remain the priority
objectives, and that efforts towards decarbonisation
need to be placed within the context of those
objectives. The various LCIG options presented in the
previous chapters require sustained and substantial
levels of investment, and appropriate instruments
of fnancing from public and private sources, both
domestic and international.
9.2 Framing Linkages with Development
There is now increasing recognition in the scientifc
and policy communities that response to climate
change needs to be placed and viewed within the
broader context of sustainable development. For
example, in the Cancun Decisions, the UNFCCC
noted that addressing climate change requires a
paradigm shift towards building a low-carbon society
that offers substantial opportunities and ensures
continued high growth and sustainable development,
based on innovative technologies and more sustainable
production and consumption and lifestyles, while
ensuring a just transition of the workforce that creates
decent work and quality jobs, (UNFCCC, 2011,
Decision 1/CP16).
A similar approach is refected in the Indias National
Action Plan on Climate Change, which notes that
Indias development path is based on its unique
resource endowments, the overriding priority of
economic and social development and poverty
eradication, and its adherence to its civilizational
legacy that places a high value on the environment
and the maintenance of ecological balance (NAPCC,
2008). More recently, the 12th Five Year Plan
Document of the Government of India recognizes the
need to adopt low-carbon strategies to improve the
sustainability of the growth processes, with carbon
mitigation being an important co-beneft (Planning
Commission, 2013).
In such a development frst framing, mitigation of
GHG emissions is seen as a co-beneft of a sustainable
development policy, rather than as the principal
objective. Consequently, rather than develop policies
specifcally for mitigating GHG emissions, the
approach prioritizes those development strategies
that yield greater decarbonisation the development
imperatives being equal. As Jooste et al (2014) note,
The right to develop is the overriding policy
priority in developing countries albeit expressed and
implemented in varying ways. This development
imperative then becomes the critical factor when
considering climate mitigation efforts within these
countries.
A consequence of a focus on sustainable development
implies that just as identifcation and quantifcation
of mitigation co-benefts of different development
policies is important, it is important, equally, to
consider the full range of co-benefts and co-costs,
associated with the spill-over effects of policies on
102
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
other social and economic objectives. Indeed, the
emphasis now shifts from a co-benefts approach to
a multiple benefts approach where a preferred
strategy is one that enables multiple objectives to
be achieved simultaneously. These objectives could
include, for example, issues related to the local
environment such as air and water quality, social
issues such as equity in energy access, and economic
issues such as job creation and energy security. Such
an approach was adopted in a recent, comprehensive
assessment of the global energy system the
Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012). The GEA
identifed pathways for energy system transformation
that permitted energy security, climate protection
and energy access goals to be achieved, while also
identifying the multiple benefts and development
linkages of such transformational pathways.
While it is important to recognize the co-benefts
and co-costs of low-carbon strategies, it is likely
that the global GHG mitigation goals may not be
met simply by considering the ancillary benefts of
development policies. While prioritizing policies
for their mitigation co-benefts, it is important to
recognize that even production co-benefts have a
cost, and this cost would be far larger for policies
that are primarily aimed at producing GHG emissions
reductions. At the same time, developmental co-
benefts of mitigation policies, while important, may
not be adequate to justify their implementation, in the
absence of multilateral mechanisms for fnance and
technology transfer to support such actions in the
developing world. Finally, not all ancillary effects
may be benefcial, some policies may have negative
spill-overs as well and these co-costs will need to be
identifed and explicitly considered while evaluating
choices and assessing fnancing needs.
In other words, a holistic assessment of LCIG pathway
requires consideration of various externalities
(positive and negative), which have not been directly
considered in the optimization model. For instance,
many low carbon options have direct benefts and
may also involve additional co-costs. The net impact
should also account for the activities these measures
replace, which may also have had some benefts and
costs. Thus, ideally, one would need to assess the net
benefts, costs and even risks. However, measuring
and valuing these pose methodical and conceptual
challenges. Economic benefts may be easier to assess
as long as there is an impact on goods and services
traded in the market, but there may also be indirect
impacts
1
. Non-market impacts such as, on air quality
and human health, wild life, bio diversity, ecosystem
etc. may be much harder to value.
In this chapter, we have adopted a qualitative
assessment framework, to enable a directional
understanding of the trade-offs as well as synergies
of the low carbon measures proposed in previous
chapters. A detailed quantitative assessment is beyond
the scope of this report and requires detailed research,
both theoretical and empirical.
For each low carbon measure identifed in the
sectoral chapters, a review of secondary literature was
undertaken to ascertain the likely co-benefts grouped
in three categories, namely, economic, environment
and others. Though economic considerations have
already been covered in Chapter 2, this has been
retained in the current matrix to illustrate temporal
considerations, particularly with respect to impact on
employment and inclusion. The macro model has also
considered the impact on global environment, through
GHG emissions. However, the LCIG pathway will
also impact the local environment, particularly the
quality of air, land, water and ecosystems. Some of
the low carbon measures are likely to have a bearing
on other considerations such as energy and food
security, or political ramifcations. These too have
been identifed qualitatively wherever relevant.
Table 9.1 provides an indicative and qualitative
analysis of co-benefts and co-costs that could
impact the major policy initiatives associated with
the chosen inclusive growth trajectory. The analysis
captures direct as well as some possible systemic
impacts.
1
For example, a carbon tax may reduce the proftability of producing some product, which may discourage new entrants in to producing it. This may raise its price,
give market power to incumbents and adversely affect consumers.
DEVELOPMENT LINKAGES
103
Table 9.1: Co-Benefts Framework for Low Carbon Strategy
S. No Thrust Area Co-Beneft Sought Brief Qualitatve Assessment of Co-Beneft Potental
Power
1. Advanced Coal
Technologies
Growth Positve Although costs are marginally higher, coal is used more
efciently; energy security and reduced import dependence.
Inclusion Neutral or mildly negatve if power costs increase and are passed on
to low income consumers.
Local Environment Positve - Reduced emission of SOx, NOx and partculate mater.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve - 10 GW of Ultra Supercritcal coal plants can reduce emissions
by ~ 15% compared to current plants.
2. Natonal Wind Energy
Mission
Growth Positve Can substtute for fossil fuel imports and provide energy
security. Indigenous manufacturing for large capacites can lead to job
creaton and growth.
Inclusion Neutral Can be mildly negatve if average electricity costs increase;
could also be mildly positve through creaton of a decentralized
energy industry.
Local Environment Positve Although land is required for wind installatons, policy can
enable mixed land use; noise polluton could be a concern.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve - Zero emissions power.
3. Natonal Solar Mission Growth Mildly positve Can substtute for fossil fuel imports, decrease import
bill and provide energy security.
Inclusion Neutral Can be negatve at present costs, which are higher than
other sources; could also be mildly positve through creaton of a
decentralized energy industry.
Local Environment Positve Decentralized rural applicatons substtute diesel,
kerosene and frewood. For large projects, dedicated land and water
requirements may be a concern due to competng uses. However,
solar power does not emit local air pollutants.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve - Zero emissions power.
Industry
4. Technology Improvement
in Iron and Steel Industry
Growth Positve - Less fossil fuel consumpton, reducton in import of fossil
fuels; improved domestc and global compettveness.
Inclusion Neutral Mildly positve, if MSME also benefts esp. the sponge iron
industry; mildly negatve, if cost of output increases.
Local Environment Positve - Usually, improved technologies provide increased
environmental performance such as reducton in noise, partculate
mater, SOx, NOx; reducton in slag and other waste.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve Reduced emissions per unit of iron and steel produced.
5. Technology Improvement
in Cement Industry
Growth Positve - Less fossil fuel consumpton; reducton in consumpton of
raw material per unit of cement produced.
Inclusion Neutral Mildly positve if price of cement reduces with higher
clinker substtuton; mildly negatve, if cost of output increases due to
technology costs.
Local Environment Positve - Usually, improved technologies provide increased
environmental performance such as reducton in noise, partculate
mater, SOx, NOx etc.; reducton in fy ash, slag and other waste and
reducton in landfll.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve Reduced emissions per unit of cement produced.
6. Energy Efciency
Programs in the Industry
Growth Positve Less fossil fuel consumpton, reducton in import of fossil
fuels; improved domestc and global compettveness.
Inclusion Positve Potental price reducton over a longer term due to increased
efciency; lower consumpton could reduce peak power or energy
defcit.
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
Local Environment Positve Improved technologies provide increased environmental
performance such as reducton in noise, partculate mater, SOx, NOx
etc.; reduced waste as by-products of energy feedstock are utlized.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve Reduced producton intensity of fossil fuels.
Transport
7. Vehicle Fuel Efciency
Program
Growth Mildly positve Reduced fuel imports, enhanced energy security.
Savings on fuel expenditure could be invested domestcally.
Inclusion Neutral, unless it results in signifcant improvement in bus efciencies
which could lower fares.
Local Environment Reduced Air Polluton - As tail-pipe emissions decrease.
Carbon mitgaton Moderately positve - Fuel consumpton would reduce, unless
undermined by increased driving paterns.
8. Improving the Efciency
of Freight Transport
Growth Positve Savings on fuel expenditure, reduced fuel imports. May
facilitate enhanced trade.
Inclusion Mildly positve - Transport cost of goods would reduce, thus impactng
overall prices.
Local Environment Positve Decreased emissions either through modal shif or
improvements in efciency of road transport.
Carbon Mitgaton Improving freight transport efciency will have a positve impact on
carbon mitgaton.
9. Beter Urban Public and
non-motorized Transport
Growth Mildly positve Reduced fuel imports and savings on fuel expenditure
could get invested domestcally
Inclusion Positve - Mobility for the poor would improve signifcantly.
Local Environment Positve - Reduced local emissions
Carbon Mitgaton Positve - Reduced consumpton of fossil fuels.
Others
10. Lightng, Labelling
and Super-Efcient
Equipment Program
Growth Mildly positve Energy efciency is typically cheaper than new power
generaton, bringing down average cost of electricity
Inclusion Neutral Positve, if appliances supported are used by relatvely poor
populatons; negatve, if predominantly used by the rich.
Local Environment Positve Energy efciency substtutes for thermal power generaton
and brings down local air polluton.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve Carbon mitgaton as energy efcient appliances substtute
for thermal power generaton.
11. Faster Adopton of Green
Building Codes
Growth Neutral or mildly positve Decreased energy costs lead to lower
investments in higher cost power infrastructure.
Inclusion Neutral; negatve if green building codes raise costs.
Local Environment Positve Energy efciency substtutes for thermal power generaton
and brings down local air polluton.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve - Carbon mitgaton occurs as energy efcient appliances
substtute for thermal power generaton.
12. Improving the Stock of
Forest and Tree Cover
Growth Neutral or mildly positve Forest enhancement can increase
ecosystem services.
Inclusion Neutral or negatve Depends on the existng use of land; and whether
aforestaton causes displacement and loss of livelihood.
Local Environment Positve or negatvedepending on the type of forest cover.
Carbon Mitgaton Positve Forests sequester carbon.
Source: Planning Commission (2013), Twelfh Five Year Plan: 2012 2017, Chapter 4.
DEVELOPMENT LINKAGES
105
Table 9.1 suggest the likely co benefts and risks
associated with the LCIG pathway. We reemphasize
that this analysis is qualitative and therefore indicative,
and needs to be substantiated with quantitative
assessments. In some cases, data availability could
be a potential challenge, and therefore there is a need
for assumptions and parametric models. What also
needs to be emphasized is that these externalities are
important and need to be factored in while designing
specifc policies. Some of the negative ones could
be taken care of with modest cost and the required
measures should form part of the overall policy
package. An alternative approach is outlined in the
Appendix. This considers a qualitiative assessment
of the impact of low carbon options on various factors
such as output, employment, inclusion, land, water,
air quality and also their political implementability.
9.3 Financing Low-Carbon Inclusive
Growth
Assessment of the mitigation costs is a diffcult task;
however, it is clear that these costs are signifcant,
and will likely rise in future if adjustment actions are
delayed. Though no ready estimates are available,
several studies
2
suggest that incremental economic
or investment costs incurred for reducing emissions
intensity will be sizeable and may divert resources
from other critical sectors of our economy.
Given that energy supply and end-use technologies
are evolving rapidly, policy instruments should
refect the contemporary state of technology. A key
issue in fnancing is the matching of the sources
of fnance with the need and characteristics of the
mitigation technology option. Whether a technology
will be viable, and adopted widely, depends on the
private discount rate, the social discount rate and
monetization of net co-benefts. Table 9.2 below
illustrates the evaluation of the economic viability
of some technology options, and matches them
with possible policy & fnance approaches. Similar
framework can be adopted for other low carbon
technology options.
Table 9.2 Evaluaton Framework for Low Carbon Technology Optons
Technology Examples Viability using
private discount
rates
Viability using
social discount
rates
Social discount rates +
monetzed mitgaton
benefts
Policy Approach
ECBC, CFL, Supercritcal
Coal Tech.
Viable Viable Viable Mandatory Standards + Informaton
labeling
Super-efcient
Appliances
Unviable Viable Viable Incentve to Manufacturer and/or
incentve to Consumer
LEDs & Ultra-
supercritcal Coal Tech.
Unviable Unviable Viable Domestc or Internatonal Carbon
Finance (grant/loan)
Carbon Capture &
Storage
Unviable Unviable Unviable Pilot Project on 100 percent grant
basis
2
Energy and Environmental Sustainability: An Approach for India, Mckinsey& Co., New Delhi, 2009; National Energy Map for India, Technology Vision
2030, The Energy Resources Institute, New Delhi, 2006
106
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
We have already seen in Chapter 2 (with the benefts
of externalities not counted) that cost to the economy
of low carbon strategies is about US $ 834 billion (in
constant 2011 dollars) over twenty years from 2011
to 2030. This is about 1.5 per cent of the cumulative
GDP over this period. Even if benefts of externalities
are accounted for, the resources required would be
substantial. In developed industrialized countries,
local environment quality and levels of air pollution,
water pollution and land degradation are under
control, without extensive reliance on renewable low
carbon technologies.
Table 9.1 suggests the likely co-benefts and risks
associated with the LCIG pathway. We reemphasize
that this analysis is qualitative and therefore indicative,
and needs to be substantiated with quantitative
assessments. In some cases, data availability could be
a potential challenge for such analysis and therefore
there is a need for assumptions and parametric models.
Nevertheless, the table does highlight a few important
points regarding LCIG pathway. What needs to be
emphasized is that these externalities are important
and need to be factored in while designing specifc
policies. Some of the negative ones could be taken
care of with modest cost and the required measures
should form a part of the policy package.
Low carbon strategies will not only require
enhanced deployment of renewable and clean
energy technologies, but also capital fnance for
improvements in technology. Some of these objectives
may be met through regulatory interventions and use
of market mechanisms, in which case the required
budgetary support may be small, but indirect and un-
quantifed costs for economy may be large. In other
cases, adequate fnancial outlays will be needed to
implement policies and measures that can achieve
specifc mitigation outcomes in the individual sectors.
Before deciding on the optimal strategy it is important
to answer questions like whether the incentive will
actually be passed on to the consumer, whether the
income transfer to the consumer would result in
increased demand, what will be the impact on risk-
sharing, information asymmetry, moral hazard etc.
Where markets exist, signals could be delivered
through either price or quantities. Where they dont
exist, and externalities are paramount; markets may
need to be created as well as deepened. In this context,
the relevance of regulatory measures as appropriate
instruments to refect externalities, and trading as a
possible way of minimizing the economic costs need
to be carefully balanced.
9.3.1 Cap and Trade vs. Carbon Tax
At this juncture, it is important to examine the
difference between Cap-and-Trade vs Carbon
Tax approach. Cap-and-trade programs often are
designed to achieve greater reductions over time, so
the cap may be lowered in subsequent years to enable
market participants achieve emission reductions
gradually. To achieve compliance with the capped
emission level, market participants are allocated
allowances to emit (1 ton per allowance) with the
total number of allowances summing to the level of
the cap. Market participants can purchase allowances
from other participants to cover excess emissions,
or sell allowances, if they reduce emissions below
their allocation. Such trading increases economic
effciency.
A carbon tax is an alternative to a cap-and-trade.
It can be given other names like cess, surcharge,
levy etc. A negative carbon tax can also be given as
subsidies for some identifed low carbon effort, for
example generation based incentive for supply of
renewable power. Although both cap-and-trade and
carbon trade policies generate a carbon price signal,
there is a fundamental difference in the way in which
the level of carbon price signal is determined under
the two regimes (see Table 9.3 below). A carbon tax
fxes the price of carbon and allows the quantity of
emissions to adjust in response to the level of tax.
In contrast, a cap-and-trade system fxes the quantity
of aggregate emissions, and allows the price of CO
2

emissions to adjust to ensure the emissions cap is met
(Stavins, 2008). UKs Climate Change Levy (CCL)
and Australias Clean Energy Package are examples
of carbon tax.
DEVELOPMENT LINKAGES
107
Table 9.3 Cap & Trade vs. Carbon Tax
Cap and Trade Carbon Tax
It sets a steadily declining ceiling on carbon emissions, and by
creatng a market that rewards companies for slashing CO2
(corporatons that reduce emissions below their allotment can
sell them on the open market); it uses the free enterprise system
to achieve emissions reducton.
Uncertainty about how much it will reduce carbon emissions.
However, tax linked to benchmarks of energy or emissions
intensity can help improve certainty with respect to mitgaton.
It does not provide cost certainty as price of permits fuctuates
and could be highly volatle in the spot market.
Carbon Tax provides cost certainty by setng a clear price on
carbon emissions for many years ahead.
It needs a market monitoring agency to examine issues such as
rent seeking, cornering the market etc.
Its simple to understand and implement.
The design leaves out many small and medium organizatons
(who together may release signifcant porton of the emissions)
Carbon Tax covers the entre economy, including automobiles,
households and other units impossible to reach in a cap-and-
trade.
The revenues are likely to be bargained away well before the frst
trade ever takes place
Carbon Tax raises a clear amount of revenue, which can be used
for targeted purposes or rebated to the public.
It can be more easily manipulated to allow additonal emissions;
if the permits become too pricey, regulators would likely sell or
distribute more permits to keep the price reasonable.
The chances of manipulaton are remote. The structure of the tax
doesnt allow periodic regulator interventon.
The long-term signals from cap-and-trade are less powerful, and
the behavioural changes (e.g. choice of the type of power plant)
could turn out to be far fewer.
Clear signals and impetus for behavioural changes
Politcal pressures could lead to diferent allocatons of
allowances, which afect distributon, but not environmental
efectveness and cost efectveness.
Politcal pressures could lead to exemptons of sectors and frms,
which reduces environmental efectveness and drives up costs.
It will be a difcult process to adopt diferent internatonal
allowances and make it at par with the domestc allowance.
Carbon-taxing natons can easily ofset import price diferences
with a border tax adjustment.
The setng of the price (in an open market) could be very opaque. The process is more transparent and trustworthy.
One of the immediate consequences are the design of fnancial
and legal instruments
This directly rewards innovaton in engineering.
Source: Yale Environment 360; 2009
9.3.2 Domestic Resources
The most obvious source of fnancing for climate
change action is the government budgetary support.
Most of it would come as sectoral fnance since some
of the resources for adaptation and mitigation are built
into the on-going schemes and programmes. Although
carbon mitigation is sometimes an important co-
beneft, the deployment of resources for such purposes
is largely guided by the overall availability of resources
with the respective Ministries. Some prominent
examples are budgetary support for super-critical
thermal power plants, for dedicated freight corridor,
for urban public transport etc. This is supplemented
by internal and extra-budgetary resources of public
enterprises like NTPC, Ministry of Railways, Metro-
Rail Corporations etc. Additional allocations are
available to the state governments as grants from the
central government on the recommendation of the
Finance Commissions, for example, for forest cover,
renewable energy and the water sector.
While the budgetary resources indicated above fow
through the Consolidated Fund, Government of
India has created another window for climate action
through the Public Account. With a view to generate
additional resources, a cess at the rate of Rs. 50 per
tonne of both domestically produced and imported
coal was frst announced in Union Budget 2010-11.
The cess has become operational and its revenue (of
the order of about Rs. 3,000 crore every year) goes to
a newly created National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF),
which will be used to fnance innovative projects in
clean energy technologies and to harness renewable
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
NCEF could be a valuable source to remove fnancing
bottlenecks in the rapid deployment of clean energy.
However, it is not yet utilised adequately. In order to
meet our rapidly expanding demand for clean energy
fnancing, the guidelines of NCEF utilization must be
revised at the earliest to enable quick disbursal and
fuller utilisation into areas where existing budgetary
and non-budgetary sources are unable to bridge the
fnancing gap. In view of the absence of a separate
exposure limit to renewable energy, providing a
thrust to the sector for creating additional funding
mechanisms becomes an imperative.
Given the importance of supporting the development
of clean energy technologies, a separate window could
be opened in the Fund to support development of
early stage technologies and/or supporting diffusion,
deployment and adoption of commercially available
but high cost climate friendly technologies. Such
measures could be taken in the mode of public-private
partnerships. A separate window would ensure that
funds are earmarked for renewable energy and the
process to access funds is simplifed.
National Clean Energy Fund
An interest subvention expressed as a percentage
per annum could be made available for eligible
projects, and routed through the lenders to such
projects. Thus, borrowers would get lower interest
rates for the loans (not a reimbursement) while the
lenders directly receive the subsidy.
Since there is no industry-wide benchmark interest
rate, domestic lenders typically lend on semi-fxed
rate i.e. interest rate linked to a base rate, which
is reviewed from time to time. Such fuctuation
in the rate of interest is borne by the borrowers.
The lenders may be incentivised to provide fxed
interest rate loans for 3-5 years by providing an
additional interest subsidy (e.g. 1-2 percent p.a.
higher than the regular interest subsidy).
NCEF can be used to create a support fund which
can act as an intermediary to hedge the foreign
currency (ex. USD-INR) exposure to renewable
energy projects. This would help bring down the
hedging cost as credit profle of sovereign would
be better than stand-alone renewable projects.
Such structures have worked in countries such as
Spain, Italy and Chile in the past.
State Clean Energy Funds
Though the legislative provisions for State Clean
Energy Funds dont exist, the Electricity Conservation
Act (2001) mandates SCEFs for promoting energy
effciency and harnessing clean energy development
at the state level. Various states have conceived SCEFs
in the recent years, including Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Rajasthan, Haryana and Kerala. The Urja Ankur Fund
(2006) by Maharashtra Energy Development Agency
(MEDA) was one of the earliest in this regard, and
promoted bagasse, small-hydro, municipal solid
waste and geothermal based energy. The projects were
supported through INR 0.04 per unit of electricity sold
to commercial and industrial units. Total fund corpus
was INR 418 Crores, including matching contributions
from the State government. The Gujarat Clean Energy
Fund (2011) was set up along similar lines with a cess
of INR 0.02 per unit of electricity from consumers
with a connected load of 1 MW or above. Given the
local demand for fnance from DSM programs, such
as awareness campaigns, energy-auditing, effcient
agricultural pump-sets, effcient street- lighting, etc.,
the funds must be generated and administered locally
to ensure best utilization. SCEFs are mandated for
precisely this purpose, and if implemented diligently,
could go a long way in ensuring energy effcient
transformation in the medium-term.
Funds can also be established outside the
Government. This is particularly important for private
sector industry, even more so for small and medium
enterprises, who will fnd it diffcult to access the
National Clean Energy Fund in the Government
Public Account. It would be simpler and more useful
to set up a Carbon Trust or a Low Carbon Fund
managed by an autonomous body like the Bureau
of Energy Effciency, into which collections from
an Energy Effciency Surcharge or Levy could be
deposited. The collections, even though small, could
DEVELOPMENT LINKAGES
109
be supplemented by block grants from the National
Clean Energy Fund under the Government, and
indeed some international sources of fnance. This
could go a long way in meeting the demands of the
private industry.
We could also create a priority credit facility through
the scheduled commercial banks to help fnance their
low carbon efforts, while interest subvention could be
dovetailed with the Trust fund suggested above. To
summarize, a clearly planned strategy and mechanism
for supporting diffusion, deployment and adoption of
climate friendly technologies should be formulated
and launched at the earliest.
9.3.3 International Sources
The intensity of domestic mitigation response depends
rather signifcantly on the multi-lateral response
to climate change. According to the UNFCCC,
international fnancial support is to be provided to
developing countries to enable them to take voluntary
actions for mitigation and adaptation. Even though
resources are scarce, India has been making specifc
budgetary outlays to address the challenge of climate
change. However, domestic resources fall far short
of the actual requirements. The Expert Group on
Low Carbon Strategies has explicitly stated in both
Interim and Final Reports that aggressive mitigation
cannot be achieved unless substantial international
help, both in terms of fnancial resources and transfer
of technology, is forthcoming.
A major channel for mobilizing funds to the
developing countries is likely to be the Green Climate
Fund that is still being operationalised. At the same
time, the World Bank (Climate Investment Fund)
and other multilateral agencies are offering their
funds to be used for climate action on the basis of
agreed terms and conditions. The expected fow
of funds from the Green Climate Fund, and other
bilateral and multilateral channels, should enhance
Indias capacity to address the climate challenge. It
is important to ensure funds fowing through these
sources are indeed new and additional resources,
and their terms of fnance are in accordance with the
multilateral rules of climate change. Unfortunately,
the promises made through the Conference of Parties
and recommendations of the High Level Panel on
Climate Change Finance are yet to be fulflled.
One way of differentiating between domestic and
international sources of fnance is the co-benefts
framework mentioned above. Policy measures that
generate adequate development co-benefts should
be funded domestically, while those which primarily
provide climate benefts should be funded by
international sources. Even measures with adequate
co-benefts may require international fnancing, if
the initial investment is very large. To put it another
way, actions which generate climate benefts along
with development co-benefts should be the ones that
should be categorized as the Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Actions (NAMAs).
Clean Development Mechanism is an international
mechanism for emissions trading that helps
developing countries gain some fnancial resources
through sale of emission reduction certifcates to
developed countries, while enabling them to meet
their emission reduction targets. The market for
such trading is either compliance-based such as the
one created under Kyoto Protocol, or voluntary in
nature. India has been an active player in the Clean
Development Mechanism and the National CDM
Authority (NCDMA) in the Ministry of Environment
& Forest has accorded Host Country Approval to
over 2000 projects. Interestingly, most of the projects
in India are unilateral in nature, wherein the project
entity itself undertakes the initial investment, and
aims to sell the Certifed Emission Reduction (CER)
units in the spot market rather than selling them in the
forward markets.
Efforts are being made to increase participation of
fnancial institutions/banks in fnancing voluntary
projects, including the bundling of small projects
which may reduce transaction costs and increase
the average project size. A programme for capacity
building to help industry adopt new and more effcient
methodologies, such as programmatic CDM projects,
is also being considered. However, the ability of
international carbon markets to act as a stable source
110
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
of adequate fnance for domestic mitigation actions
in developing countries is limited, because of the
uncertainties about the scale of emissions reduction in
the 2nd commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol.
Further, in some of the key markets such as that of
EU, unilateral restrictions are being imposed on sale
of CERs from major developing countries in terms
of eligibility, additionality criteria, sectoral caps etc.
In brief, the contribution of CDM to real technology
transfer is limited, and as market prices remain
depressed and volatile, considerable uncertainty
prevails over its future.
The potential for these domestic measures to link
with global carbon markets remains unclear, largely
due to lack of clarity in the international negotiation
process. Until such clarity emerges, the most that can
be expected are loosely linked regional markets. We
must be prepared to link with them, though we cannot
expect substantial resource fow from this source in
the short term.
The signifcant additional investment required
for low carbon power plants leads to diversion of
resources and lowers the growth rate. India needs to
be compensated for this by the global community.
The international fund requirement could be reduced,
however, if new developments in technology are
made accessible at lower costs.
DEVELOPMENT LINKAGES
111
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r
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F
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S
e
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P
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i
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c
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l
1
.
R
a
t
n
g

o
f

A
p
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i
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n
c
e
s
(
+
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o
w
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n
v
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s
t
m
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t

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n

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s
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H
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r

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h

m
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n
s

h
i
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H
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s

h
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r
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R
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d
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n

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n

c
o
a
l

b
a
s
e
d

g
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r
a
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n
(
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L
e
s
s

w
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r

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s
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n

f
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s

l
a
n
d

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t

(
+
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L
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s

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r
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s
t

l
o
s
s
(
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L
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w
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r
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y

d
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m
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d

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d

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m
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s

2
.
R
e
p
l
a
c
e

I
n
c
a
n
d
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s
c
e
n
t

L
a
m
p
s

b
y

C
F
L
(
+
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n
v
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s
t
m
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n
t

e
f
e
c
t
s

i
m
p
r
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v
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G
D
P

a
n
d

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m
p
l
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y
m
e
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n

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h
e

l
o
n
g

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u
n
-
d
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-
-
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-
(
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d
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t
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n

i
n

c
o
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l

b
a
s
e
d

g
e
n
e
r
a
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n
(
-
)

M
e
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y

c
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t
a
m
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n
a
t
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n

f
r
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m

C
F
L

i
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r
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o
f
s

(
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M
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C
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s

-
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3
.

E
C
B
C

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a
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t

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r
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l

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d
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n
g
s
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g
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c
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N
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R
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(
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L
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m
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4
.

L
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S
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l
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W
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L
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-

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a
v
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o
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m
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(
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H
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m
p
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s

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p
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r
112
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
S
u
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d

M
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A
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R
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H
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5
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P
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G
D
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l
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r
u
n
,

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(
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N
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b
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6
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T
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(
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(
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,

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(
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(
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7
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P
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a
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s
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(
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d
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(
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)

L
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(
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;

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(
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(
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L
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l
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m
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(
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L
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f
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d
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N
.
A
.
(
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H
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p
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e
8
.

M
o
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S
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F
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t
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R
a
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w
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s
(
+
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I
m
p
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t

o
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G
D
P

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t
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d
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n
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a
t
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n

c
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s

(
+
)


R
e
d
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c
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n

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n

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n
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p
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c
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g
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h
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n
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e

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e

(
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L
o
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r
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d

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g
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s
h
a
r
e


l
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s

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n
(
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R
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n

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(
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R
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d
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n


t
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p
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(
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R
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c
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c
h
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e
9
.

F
u
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E
f
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t

V
e
h
i
c
l
e
s
(
+
)


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114
10 Policy Recommendations
The Final Report targets ambitious emissions
reduction, going forward up to the year 2030, while
also achieving fast and inclusive growth. The report
takes the 2007 National Communication as the base
year, and proposes a set of low carbon strategies,
which require design and implementation of specifc
policies. Policy interventions can be pursued along
two parallel and complementary routes, we call the
frst, chasing the targets, and the second, use of
policy instruments.
10.1 Chasing the Targets
The Final Report has identifed twelve specifc low
carbon targets for the year 2030. The present as well
as the desired status of these targets is given in Table
10.1 below. The Expert Group recommends that the
Planning Commission should monitor these targets
on a yearly basis and produce a status report to be
placed before the Union Cabinet annually.
Table 10.1 Chasing the Targets
Sr.
No.
Low Carbon Strategy Present Status Target by 2030
1 Advanced Coal Technologies 11 Super Critcal Units with an installed
capacity of 7.4 GW, which is only 6 percent of
the coal-based generaton capacity.
Super Critcal and Ultra Super Critcal Coal
Plants should account for at least half of the
coal based power generaton capacity.
2 Hydroelectric Power
Generaton
Installed capacity of 40 GW. Installed capacity of 75 GW.
3 Natonal Wind Mission Installed capacity of 20 GW. Installed capacity of 120 GW.
4 Natonal Solar Mission Installed capacity of 2 GW. Installed capacity of 100 GW.
5 Nuclear Power Installed capacity of 4.8 GW. Installed capacity of 40 GW.
6 Dedicated Freight Corridors
(DFCs)
The Delhi-Mumbai Corridor is under
constructon.
DFCs along the quadrilateral linking the four
metropolitan cites and their diagonals
7 Urban Public Transport Only metropolitan cites have been taken up
for modern public transport.
All cites should be covered with efcient
means of public transport
8 Efciency of Vehicles Only private vehicles are currently compliant
to Euro 4 standards.
Both private and commercial vehicles should
be compliant to Euro 6 standards
9 Energy Efciency in Industry About 478 industrial units are notfed as
Designated Consumers for PAT.
PAT Scheme for designated consumers only
and Energy Conservaton Fund for all non-
PAT industrial units.
10 Energy Conservaton and
Building Codes
For commercial buildings only: Rajasthan,
Odisha and Puducherry have notfed ECBC;
other states like Chhatsgarh, Karnataka, and
Utarakhand & Utar Pradesh have notfed
amended ECBC.
All States and Urban Local Bodies to
mandate ECBC for commercial buildings and
residental apartments.
11 Appliance Labelling
Programme
The Star Labelling Programme is only
applicable to Ceiling Fans, Air Conditoners,
Refrigerators and Color Televisions.
The Star Labelling Programme to cover
all electrical appliances. Near Universal
Coverage of Super Efcient Lightng
(CFLs+LEDs).
12 GHG Inventory and Data
Management System
Indias GHG inventory preparaton and
reportng has been rather infrequent. The
last GHG inventories were prepared only in
1994 and 2007.
Inventories of GHG gases such as CO2,
CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 should to be
prepared and reported annually.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
115
10.2 Policy Instruments
Policy measures to reduce emissions fall into two
categories, namely: reducing energy requirement by
promotion of energy effciency, and by increasing
the use of low carbon energy sources in the supply
To design an appropriate mix of policy instruments,
an analytic framework is necessary. This will help
us understand the channels through which policy
interventions affect the equilibrium outcomes. The
policy instruments can be complements or substitutes.
Very often, a lot of energy is spent in choosing
mix. Policy instruments can essentially be classifed
into fve categories: Energy Pricing, Carbon Tax, Cap
& Trade, Subsidy and Regulation. This framework
contextualises the policy instruments with reference
to the LCIG scenario proposed by the Expert Group.
between instruments that are in effect substitutes,
and complementarities emanating from similar
alternatives are neglected. An analytic Framework
that can be used for designing an appropriate mix of
policy instruments is suggested in the box below:
Figure 10.1: Types of Policy Instruments


Policy Instruments
Energy
Pricing
Administered

Pricing
Market

Pricing
Carbon Tax
Coal Cess
Cap & Trade
RPO
PAT
Subsidy
FiT
GBI
Capital
Subsidy for
Renewables
Appliance
Labelling
Fuel
Standards
ECBC
Box 10.1: Analytc Framework
A. Changing the Cost Curves (Producer Side Strategies)
Capital Costs : Capital subsidy, interest subventon, depreciaton rules
Variable Costs: Output based incentve (Feed-in-tarifs, generaton based incentve, drawback of commodity taxes,
PAT Scheme)
Technical Progress: Lower capital and/ or input costs, new technologies
B. Changing the Demand Curves (Consumer Side Strategies)
Purchase Quotas (Renewable Purchase Obligatons)
Guaranteed Procurement (Public Procurement Policy)
Purchase Based Incentves (Purchaser Rebates)
Informaton Asymmetry: Appliance Labeling
116
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
10.2.1 Energy Pricing
Energy pricing is a critical policy instrument that
promotes effcient use of energy and leads to selection
of appropriate technology and energy mix. Fossil fuel
prices are better understood in a four levels framework.
Administered price is typically below the competitive
market price, but very often, administered prices with
specifc taxes, may not be far from what would prevail
if domestically competitive markets were allowed
to evolve and operate freely. Many experts would
recommend that prices of fossil fuels should refect
their full opportunity cost, which means not just
market price levelised for the general level of taxation,
but also with the shadow price of externalities added
to it. Since this would be a tall order for the Indian
polity at present, the Expert Group recommends
that we should, in the frst instance, move as soon
as possible to a domestically competitive market for
fossil fuels and transfer targeted subsidies directly
to the poor through the best means available. This
has been accepted, in principle, by the government,
and some measures are being taken. The movement
towards market pricing, however, is slow, and the
process needs to be accelerated without any further
loss of time.
The advantages of competitive market pricing are: (a)
signalling role in the markets; (b) lowering of the gap
between low-carbon energy sources and fossil fuel
energy sources, which reduces the subsidy burden on
the government, in addition to generating funds for
low carbon projects; and (c) providing incentives to
the users to opt for low carbon energy supply options
such as renewables. The disadvantages are that it may
result in an increase in energy prices for the short
term and disadvantage the poor. However, continuing
with distorted prices over time might raise infation
and lower growth rate putting a larger burden on the
poor. The simultaneous pursuit of multiple goals i.e.,
economic effciency, equity and infation control,
necessitates balancing between these objectives. The
infationary effect could be moderated via phased
implementation, while the regressive effect on the
poor can be minimised by giving direct cash transfers
to the poor households, for which biometric unique
identifcation (UID-Aadhaar) can be a useful tool.
10.2.2 Cess on Fossil Fuels
Government of India has imposed a coal cess at the
rate of Rs. 50 per tonne of coal produced or imported
in the country, which collects an amount of almost
Rs. 3,000 crore every year. This is routed to the
National Clean Energy Fund, which is part of the
Public Account. The Coal Cess is essentially a low
rate Carbon Tax, except that it is only on coal and
not on the other fossil fuels which also emit carbon.
While it does not fully compensate the negative
externality of carbon, it is an important source of
revenue that can be used to meet the demand of
subsidies from the renewable energy sector. This is
useful, because cess is a pseudo-tax, which cannot
be used as general purpose revenue, but only for
specifed purposes. The Expert Group recommends
that, adjusted for the carbon content, cess equivalent
to the Coal Cess should be extended to all fossil fuels.
While the revenue generated may be smaller than
the additional investment required for pursuit of low
carbon strategies, it can be used to leverage other
policy instruments mentioned here. In particular,
subsidies for renewables, like generation based
incentive, capital subsidies, interest subventions etc.
can be effectively funded from this route.
10.2.3 Energy Effciency in Household Use of
Electricity
Energy effciency has a transcendental role in any
modern economy. Labelling and Star Rating has
been found to be effective in promoting the use
of more energy effcient appliances. Consumers
seem to react rationally to energy saving. We, thus,
recommend that the labelling programme should
cover more appliances and equipment with clear,
easily understandable, and, informative labels. It
is suggested that the appliances, which account for
one half or two thirds energy consumption, should
all be included in the labelling programme. The
periodic tightening of labelling standards should be
extended beyond air conditioners and refrigerators to
capture the benefts of technological improvements.
Widespread consumer awareness should also be
simultaneously created.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
117
While private individuals and frms would make
an economically rational choice, it is not easy
for procurement offcers of public sectors frms
or government departments to do so. They are
required to buy on lowest frst-cost basis. Thus,
we recommend that government and public sector
procurement offcers should be empowered to buy on
life-cycle cost basis. Identifying appliance specifc
price advantage, for different star ratings, will be
helpful, and the procurement rules for governmental
institutions should be suitably modifed in this regard.
Energy effcient lighting has already found acceptance
with the public, as can be seen from the rapid growth
in the sale of compact forescent lamps (CFLs).
The rapid reduction in the cost of light emitting
diode (LED) lamps promises further cost reduction
in lighting energy without the danger of mercury
pollution that may occur when CFLs are not properly
disposed. It is recommended that BEE should step up
its programme to promote LED lighting, including
periodic bulk procurement through competitive
bidding, to enable rapid price discovery with the
advantage of economies of scale.
10.2.4 Policy for Energy Effcient Buildings
The potential for energy saving in annual energy
use for commercial buildings has been estimated to
be around 30 percent. The ECBC has already been
made mandatory for large commercial buildings
in some states. The Central Government and some
State Governments have also decided to comply with
the ECBC code and retroft their existing buildings.
While an enforcement mechanism to facilitate ECBC
implementation should be developed concurrently,
the stringency of the ECBC Code should be enhanced
periodically.
To promote uptake of green and energy effcient
building standards, the owners need to be properly
incentivised. Property tax rebate may be offered to
those who comply with ECBC or obtain certain ratings
from the pool of green ratings available. However, how
does one make sure that this is not claimed without
complying with the ECBC? Building codes should
be implemented by local municipal authorities and
subjected to compliance pressures. One way would be
to insist that the local authority incorporates ECBC in
the municipal bye-laws and obtains a BEE certifcate
saying that it has an appropriate mechanism for
certifcation in place. In turn, the municipality could
be incentivised, by insisting on such certifcation as
a precondition for releasing funds under JNNURM.
The problem with residential buildings, as also with
some commercial property development, is that the
builders, and eventual tenants or buyers, have split
incentives. Since tenants or buyers want low upfront
cost, builders have little incentive to invest in a green
building. It will be more effective to quicken the
process of approval for building plans and reducing
the cost of obtaining permits. Ensuring that local
authorities have the necessary mechanism in place
to do so effectively is important. Incentives for
developers could be provided in the form of additional
Floor Area Ratio (FAR,) reduced property tax, stamp
duty for green buildings and any additional cost of
complying with green building standards. Financial
incentives for end users in terms of reduced interest
on loans for green buildings have been used in other
parts of the world, and can be applied to the Indian
context.
We recommend that all buildings (commercial and
residential) and government buildings are encouraged
to enhance their energy performance. Energy Service
Companies could be used to provide this up-gradation
and to bear the initial cost for project preparation and
project implementation. The investment could be
recovered over a period of time if the energy retrofts
continue to be more effcient than the equipment
they have replaced. BEE may suitably strengthen its
list of empanelled Energy Service Companies that
can provide these services, and Energy Effciency
Services Limited (a company set up by BEE) may
take the lead as a market creator.
Other barriers are knowledge gaps about green building
technologies among builders, architects and users,
as well as poor availability of the required building
materials. There should be adequate knowledge
dissemination about green building materials and
118
LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
technologies, and training and capacity building
programmes need to be promoted. The supply chain
of green building materials across the country should
be strengthened. To overcome the diffculty faced by
smaller establishments in retroftting their buildings, a
special window should be opened in housing fnance
companies and banks to provide loans for retroftting
of buildings.
Apart from ECBC compliant buildings, a measure
that can signifcantly reduce energy consumption is
by following Japans example in this area. Presently
in India, many offces, hotels, conference rooms,
and auditoriums are usually air conditioned to
uncomfortably low degrees of temperature. We
recommend that the air conditioner temperature
points should be set to a default value of 25 degree
Celsius, and public places and offces should be
asked to operate air conditioners in the 25-27 degree
Celsius range. While implementation of such a simple
measure may seem diffcult initially; over time, public
awareness and pressure will ensure compliance.
10.2.5 Promoting Energy Effciency in
Industry
Since Indian industries are growing rapidly, the
industrial capital stocks will double every seven to
eight years. Thus, concentrating on new industries to
set up energy effcient plants is useful. Endorsement
labelling of energy effcient industrial equipment such
as waste heat recovery units, back-pressure turbines,
variable speed drives, etc. should be encouraged
as these inform investors to select economically
attractive equipment on their own. Energy effcient
equipment can be promoted more effectively if energy
prices are competitively determined. This, hopefully,
will happen in the due course of time.
To promote energy effciency in industries, a Perform,
Achieve and Trade (PAT) Scheme has been introduced
by the Bureau of Energy Effciency. The PAT scheme
covers some 400 large designated consumers (DCs) in
9 sectors including power generation. These together
consumed 231 MTOE of energy, which is about 54
percent of the total commercial energy consumed
in the country in the year 2007-08. BEE has made
a heroic effort in getting DCs to agree on reduction
targets, and over the frst three-year period of 2012 to
2015, an energy use reduction target of 6.6 MTOE has
been set, refecting a reduction of around 1 percent
per year.
The main challenge is in setting frm specifc mutually
agreed upon energy targets. Energy consumption
in a frm depends on the source and quality of raw
materials, product mix location of plant, scale of
operation, processes, vintage, capacity utilisation,
etc. This will provide incentives and opportunity to
frms for negotiating a low energy reduction target.
The outcome of the PAT scheme should be carefully
monitored and eventually adapted in line with the
feedback of implementation experience in the frst
cycle.
Another challenge is posed by the lakhs of small and
medium enterprises and other industry not covered by
PAT scheme, which the Twelfth Plan Document calls
the non-PAT Industry. The Energy Conservation Act
provides for an energy conservation fund to incentivise
energy effciency measures in such industrial units.
Some of these SMEs are located in clusters. The BEE
is examining about 25 clusters to see how there SMEs
can be incentivized to improve energy effciency. The
cluster approach has not worked very well with regard
to the functioning of common effuent treatment
plants. Thus, getting a cluster of SMEs to act in a co-
ordinated manner, in situations where opportunities
for free riding exist, is diffcult.
The Twelfth Plan recommends that, while the PAT
should continue to evolve, it would be useful to
envisage a combined Energy Effciency Package,
consisting of the PAT scheme and an Energy
Conservation Fund, to be implemented by a unifed
Central Government agency, namely, the Bureau of
Energy Effciency (BEE). The legal provision for this
already exists in the Energy Conservation Act 2001,
wherein under Section 13, the BEE is empowered to
levy fees for services provided for promoting effcient
use of energy and it conservation. Assistance for waste
heat recovery systems, and preparation of detailed
project reports to fnance adoption of energy-effcient
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
119
technologies, are particularly important for non-PAT
industrial units, which typically cannot arrange such
help on their own.
Unlike the coal cess which is deposited in the
Government account, the energy effciency fee will
be deposited in the Central Energy Conservation
Fund managed by the BEE (Section 20 of the Energy
Conservation Act). The collections from the fee could
be supplemented by international funding, as well as
block grants from the Central Government through
the NCEF. Energy Conservation Fund could be used
to leverage and/or fnance energy-effcient technology
up-gradation of the domestic industry, particularly
non-PAT industry, on terms softer than commercial
borrowing. While participation under the scheme
would be compulsory for non-PAT industry, industrial
units participating in the PAT scheme could also be
permitted after one or two PAT cycles are successfully
completed.
10.2.6 Policy for Transport Sector
There is a huge potential to reduce the energy
intensity from the transport sector. Increased attention
needs to be focussed on the railways, as it is the most
energy effcient mode of land transport. Necessary
action should be taken to ensure that the continually
declining shares of mobility on the railways, for
both passenger and freight mobility are not only
arrested, but also reversed. Cross subsidisation of rail
passenger tariff by rail freight tariff is a self-defeating
policy that needs to be discontinued forthwith.
For passenger mobility, with continuous increase in the
value of time, it is imperative to provide commuters
an adequate number of faster and more convenient
rail based services for both intra and inter-city, as
well as suburban services. This would in many cases
require augmenting the present rail infrastructure in
terms of line and terminal capacity and rolling stock
for carrying additional traffc. Investments will also
be required for provision of new infrastructure in the
form of metro, rapid and high-speed rail services.
For freight mobility too, measures need to be taken to
arrest the diminishing shares of rail based mobility.
This can be done by frst ensuring that sectors where
rail has a comparative advantage, such as in carrying
of bulk commodities, are not forced to move by
road based transport. Creation of dedicated freight
corridors along the four quadrilaterals of the country
and expansion of the rail network to cater to new
ports, mining and industrial areas, would help carry
additional freight traffc on the railways. The most
immediate measure that needs to be taken to retain
the share of rail based freight is the rationalisation in
freight rates to ensure that freight businesses do not
move to road because of lower costs. In the medium
and longer terms, dedicated freight train corridors
should be completed as soon as possible.
In addition to increased provision of rail based
transport systems, action should be taken to increase
the availability of public transport facilities across the
country. Starting by focussing on million plus cities,
adequate measures need to be taken to increase the
number of transport corporations offering formal
urban bus services. With increasing urban sprawls,
the extremities of the cities should be connected
by better public transport services to ensure that
potential captive public transport users do not shift to
personal motorised transport on account of inadequate
availability.
Construction of public transport facilities are often
constrained by delays and costs of acquiring the right
of way. To avoid this, transport and public service
corridors master plans should be prepared for medium
sized cities and right of way acquired at the earliest.
As and when a particular corridor is developed, the
permissible foor space index (FSI) should be raised
and the additional FSI auctioned for the areas served.
With the rapidly growing numbers of private vehicles
in the country, the private vehicle feet needs to be made
cleaner. Setting up appropriate and more stringent,
progressively tightened feet energy effciency norms,
as seen in several countries across the world, would
be essential for reaching a desired low carbon scenario
for the country. Hand in hand with increasing energy
effciency, a move towards cleaner alternate fuels in
the overall fuel mix for transport has the potential
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
of signifcantly transforming the carbon intensity of
motorized transport in the country.
While pursuing these policies targeted at motorized
modes of transport, urban centres should be
encouraged to integrate non-motorized transport as
an integral component of any urban transport plans.
As highlighted in the chapter, the benefts of non-
motorized transport would not be limited to achieving
a lower carbon scenario for the country, but it would
also have larger social benefts. Once non-motorised
transport is facilitated and public transport is provided,
parking fees should be raised to refect adequately the
social cost of congestion.
Pedestrians should have the same right and
entitlement to road space as motorised vehicle riders.
Pavements and cycle paths of adequate width should
be provided even if it means reducing space for
motorized vehicles. It will encourage use of public
and non-motorised transport. A suitable mix of such
policies has the potential of creating a future, which is
not only inclusive, but also one that would result in a
lower carbon scenario for the country.
10.2.7 Renewable Energy
The renewable energy sector in India today faces
numerous fnancial, regulatory and supply chain
barriers which impede its growth. The non-availability
of low cost, long term fnance for renewable energy
projects along with the regulatory uncertainty and
absence of a sustainable domestic manufacturing base
have a long term impact on the growth of this sector.
The Government of India launched the National
Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008
under which it has launched 8 key missions focusing
on different thematic areas. The Jawaharlal Nehru
National Solar Mission (JNNSM), launched in
January 2010, is one of the 8 key missions under
the NAPCC. The JNNSM has an ambitious goal of
making solar power cost competitive with coal power
and an overall target of providing 20,000 MW of grid
connected solar power and 2,000 MW off-grid solar
by 2022. The wind sector in India has done well in
the past, but has lost the momentum it had earlier.
This sector too needs a thrust to move on to the next
level and increase the overall deployed capacity of
wind power projects. As recommended in the Twelfth
Plan, a National Wind Energy Mission should be
formulated and approved at the earliest.
To make the renewable energy sector viable and
provide long term stability for its growth in the
country, the Expert Group makes the following
recommendations:
A) Feed-in-Tariff (FiT)
FiT gives certainty to the plant owner whose cash
infows are predictable. This makes it easier to
obtain fnance and attain fnancial closure. FiT is
important for renewable power projects (CSP or PV
in the context of solar) that feed electricity into the
grid at rates as per contractual agreement between
the purchaser, which may be DISCOMS directly,
or an intermediary like NVVN (for Phase 1 of
JNNSM) and SECI for (Phase 2). Normally, the
developers put up projects to gain proft from selling
electricity to the grid. FiT generated income is the
primary source of revenue for the said solar plants
and allocation of capacity to developers for grid
connected solar plants is done through competitive
bidding for FiT under state solar policies or under
the National Solar Mission. The reverse bidding
for FiT has progressively brought down the level
of FiT. Gujarat on the other hand, invites bids for
a pre determined FiT, which it periodically revised
downwards. Reverse bidding for FiT should be
continued.
One disadvantage is that FiT is technology specifc.
To this extent, competitive effciency may not be
realized even when FiT is competitively bid, as
one would not have a common bid for all kinds
of renewable energy. The renewable portfolio
obligation (RPO) takes care of this problem.
Another disadvantage of competitive bidding is
spatial concentration of renewable projects in
certain areas, or a bias towards government land,
when private lands can be easily used for non
grid connected plants that can improve livelihood
opportunities.
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B) Generation Based Incentive (GBI)
In the past, renewable power such as wind power,
was encouraged through accelerated depreciation.
This sometimes led to construction of plants with
little incentive to operate. Generation Based Incentive
has been introduced in small measures to provide the
needed incentives. It is based on benchmark pricing
and a fxed cash incentive is available to the power
suppliers. This has not been as attractive to the
developers as accelerated depreciation for a variety of
reasons. GBI has not been adequate and has not paid
in time. To encourage Generation Based Incentive
it is important to ensure that GBI is timely paid by
creating a small balancing fund which can draw upon
the National Clean Energy Fund from time to time.
This is a classic example of complementarity in the
use of policy instruments, where Feed-in-Tariffs
can be combined with Generation Based Incentive,
the former competitively bid, and the later made
conditional on technology, region and ownership to
ensure development of renewable capacity is fair and
more evenly spread across the country.
C) Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO)
To promote renewable energy, many state electricity
regulatory commissions have announced that
renewable purchase obligations (RPO) be made
tradable through renewable energy certifcates (REC).
The REC is a market-based instrument introduced
to promote renewable energy, and facilitate
meeting of renewable purchase obligations, which
legally mandate that a percentage of electricity be
procured by distribution companies (Discoms) from
renewable energy sources. The REC mechanism
aims to address the mismatch between availability of
renewable energy resources and the requirement of
obligated entities to meet their renewable purchase
obligations.
The FiT regime and RPO mechanism complement
and mutually reinforce each other. While the RPO is a
demand creating measure for renewable energy the
FiT regime ensures developers get a fxed return on
their investments and renewable power.
The RPO has the advantage that all technologies
compete. However, this generates lot of uncertainty
about what price one would get in the future. The ability
to trade may lower some risks, but the uncertainty of
price and availability of buyers remains. To minimize
this, we recommend the following measures.
a) Strict Enforcement of RPO: At present the State
Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs)
have voluntarily announced their RPO targets,
but the enforcement of RPO by states is
weak and there is no strict penalty clause
on the defaulters. To provide visibility and
commitment, the states should be encouraged
to enforce Renewable Purchase Obligations.
Strong enforcement mechanisms with stringent
penalty clauses should be used to scale-up the
demand for renewable energy in the country,
thereby creating an alternate instrument for
market based fnancing for this sector.
b) A Uniform RPO across States: All states should
stipulate a uniform RPO level. If states are free
to set their RPO, the tendency would be to set
it too low, and all states would have surplus
renewable capacity and no buyer. Appropriate
amendments to the Electricity Act and the
National Electricity Policy may be carried out
to enable the CERC to impose RPO guidelines
in accordance to the capacity to generate
renewable power. Every state utility must have
some obligation, except North Eastern States,
since the latter already have high hydroelectric
power generation capacity and limited power
transmission capacity.
c) Fixing of long term RPO targets by SERCs:
The adjustment of previously declared RPO
targets by SERCs has created uncertainty in
the RPO/REC based market developments. To
create visibility about solar power requirement,
5-10 years of the states RPO target should be
declared at one go.
d) Visibility of Floor & Forbearance Price: The
Floor price of REC provides to the developer
minimum revenue stream of a REC based
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
project. The Forbearance price provides the
distribution company an upper bound at which
it can obtain renewable electricity. At present,
RECs have a price visibility only till March
2017. The uncertainty of revenue stream for the
debt repayment period beyond 2017 weakens
the bankability of REC based projects. A foor
price should be prescribed as a minimum FiT.
This would at least ensure a minimum cash fow
and reduce uncertainty. A national mechanism
would have to be worked out to pay for all
unsold renewable power. This price should
be for at least 10 years to facilitate fnancial
closure for RE plants. It should be set at a level
that provides adequate return to RE producer.
MNRE may explore the possibility of creating
a fund to purchase unsold RECs at the foor
price in case the total supply of RECs is greater
than the demand for RECs. A forbearance price,
an upper bound, should also be set. In case of
short supply of RE, forced buy out at this price
should be provided for. The price may be set at
the highest level of other subsidized power.
e) Routing Penalty to the RE Generator: For
the development of RE capacities to meet
RPO requirement, strict penalty for non-
compliance should be imposed by SERCs
on the distribution companies. The penalty
amount for non compliance which goes to the
Government should be passed on to RE power
generator. This should be a multiple of, say one
and half times, the forbearance price.
f) Grid Linkage Obligation: Be it the Discom, or
on the plant operator, for obligation to build
the required transmission line should be clearly
spelled out.
g) Multi-time Trading & Banking of REC: At
present, the trading of REC is one-time and can
only be undertaken by renewable energy (RE)
project generators within one year of issuance
of REC. This restricts the price discovery and
long term multi-time trading of RECs. The
trading of RECs should be allowed for more
than one year and it should be multi-time
tradable. Banking of RECs for a period of three
years at least, should be permitted.
h) Requirement to Meet RPO Periodically: The
RPO requirements by designated consumers
are at present met at the end of a fnancial
year. This affects the revenue cycle and the
viability of the projects. In place of the annual
requirement, the RPO requirement should be
met on a half yearly or quarterly basis to reduce
the payment risk and the year-end rush for the
RECs.
D) Creating Domestic Manufacturing Capacity
& Securing Long Term Supply Chain Policy
measures like FiT, GBI and RPO/REC
will create a market for renewable power.
However, policies are required to facilitate
the development of manufacturing industries.
Domestic manufacturing industry needs to be
encouraged if energy security based on solar
and wind power is to be realized. The country
cannot go from import dependence for oil and
coal to import dependence for solar and wind
equipment and its components.
While the solar sector in India is poised to grow in
the near future, the Indian photovoltaic and solar
thermal equipment industry is facing challenges
from global players, who have overcapacity, have far
lower interest costs and higher incentives or subsidies
as compared to the Indian photovoltaic and thermal
equipment manufacturers. Several solar equipment
manufacturing industries in India are either operating
at sub-optimal capacity and/or have shut down
production. In order to achieve JNNSM objectives,
the industry needs a level playing feld where the
government ensures a balance between indigenous
manufacturing capacity and imports. A higher value
add in the indigenous supply chain would lead to
increased investment, job creation, reduce foreign
exchange outfow and sustain long term growth of
this sector.
The following list of recommendations can help
domestic solar and wind plant manufacturers by
providing a level playing feld, and creating a
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
123
sustainable, reliable and long term demand for the
domestic renewable industry.
i) Capex Support for Solar Manufacturing: The
midterm (up to 2017) and long term (up to
2022) requirement of funds for solar thermal
is INR 1,186 crore and INR 5,886 crore,
respectively, and INR 12,000 crore and INR
16,000 crore for solar photovoltaic. National
Manufacturing Policy has identifed solar as
a sector of strategic importance. Sectors of
strategic importance should be given special
thrust in terms of capex support in the form of
long term, low interest non-recourse loans.
ii) Technology Upgradation Schemes for Solar
Manufacturers & Suppliers: A technology up-
gradation scheme for solar energy sector should
be introduced to promote induction of the state-
of-the-art or near-state-of-the art technology.
Such a scheme can be supported through the
National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) to support
technological upgradation and productivity
enhancement in the solar energy industry.
iii) Tax & Duty Rationalisation: The inverted duty
structure for the solar photovoltaic sector has
been a matter of grave concern for this sector.
There is an urgent need to rationalise taxes
and duties along the solar thermal and solar
photovoltaic value chain to restore the level
playing feld for the Indian solar manufacturing
industry. While certain capacities should
be developed through promotion of local
manufacturing, there will be specifc
components which will have to be imported in
the near future. Tax and duty rationalization of
these components should be given top priority.
E) Providing Impetus to Off-grid and Decentralised
Applications
Off-grid and decentralised solar energy generation
can play a vital role in addressing Indias increasing
electricity demand. Promotion of off-grid and on-
site generation of solar energy in different sectors
will reduce their dependence on diesel power during
unavailability of grid supply during day time:
a) Rooftop Solar: Inclusion of rooftop solar
electricity generation in the RPO obligations
on captive and open access consumers can
make it an attractive opportunity for the large
commercial and industrial establishments with
vast unutilized rooftops. There is a need to
provide a policy push for innovative techno-
commercial models to kick start roof top solar
in India. Further, distribution companies should
provide net metering facilities for buildings
with roof top solar installations.
b) Substitution of Diesel Power by Solar Energy
during Daylight Hours: The cost of diesel
generated power is signifcantly high. At the
subsidized diesel price of Rs. 46.32/litre, it
is estimated that the cost of electricity for a
20 KwH diesel generator at full load is Rs.
14.27/Unit and it increases to Rs. 21.40/unit
at 25 percent capacity utilization. The solar
photovoltaic systems are more economical
than diesel power generation, if it is being used
for more than 1 hour and 24 minutes a day. The
solar energy can easily substitute diesel power
generation during day time, especially during
the peak hours. The best incentive for renewable
energy will be elimination of subsidies from
fossil fuels and competitive energy pricing.
10.2.8 Nuclear Power
Generation of nuclear power does not involve
emission of GHGs, and since it provides a stable
source of base load power, nuclear energy as a
low carbon source of power is attracting attention.
Development of nuclear power in India has been
plagued with time delays and cost overruns. Yet,
given the limited, and small reserves of fossil fuels in
India; from a longer term perspective, development
of nuclear power is very important. The government
should take necessary measures to accelerate nuclear
power development. These include enactment of an
appropriate civil liability framework, and informing
the public of the relative safety of our nuclear plants
in operation. This will require increased transparency
and better communication on part of the Department
of Atomic Energy and the Atomic Energy Regulatory
Board.
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
10.2.9 Advanced Coal Technologies
Equally important as a source of renewable energy is
to improve the effciency of coal based power plants.
For example with Super Critical (SC) boilers, the
effciency of coal use can be increased from 34 percent
in sub-critical boilers to 40 percent, and further to 46
percent with Ultra-Super Critical (USC) boilers. We
have already made a push for supercritical boilers.
We need to make an aggressive effort to develop
and introduce USC boilers as soon as possible. The
Expert Group recommends a national technology
mission to develop ultra-supercritical power plant
suitable for Indian conditions, with adequate fnance
and technology import, wherever required.
10.2.10 Smart Grid
A robust grid is required to absorb intermittent
power from renewable power plants. Smart grid is
the dovetailing of the electric grid with advanced
communications, automation and IT systems that
can monitor and control power fows, and match
production and consumption in real time. A key driver
of smart grids in developed nations is the transition
towards a low carbon economy by integrating
renewable generation, and energy effciency through
active monitoring and control of consumption.
Ministry of Power (MoP) has recently fnalized a
Smart Grid Vision and Roadmap for India with a
timeframe of 15 years (2012-27) for transformation
of the Indian power system to a secure, adaptive,
sustainable and digitally enabled ecosystem by
2027, that provides reliable and quality energy for
all, with active participation of all stakeholders. We
recommend that smart grid road map be vigorously
pursued. In particular, various business models may
be piloted in different parts of the country, and with
different applications to create a corpus of experience,
understanding, and knowledge that can enable large
scale replications.
10.2.11 Policy for Sequestration
Apart from the implementation of the Green India
Mission, the green cover can be enhanced by a
number of measures that can augment sequestration.
Compensated afforestation (CAMPA) funds should
be expeditiously made available for enhancing green
cover in urban areas (city forests) and villages (village
forests).
Sequestration can also be increased by curtailing use
of fuel wood by promoting improved wood burning
cooking stoves in rural areas, and by replacement
of wood burning cooking stoves with less emission
intensive fuels like LPG. Provision of clean cooking
fuels is an important element of our inclusive growth.
While the provision of LPG for all rural households
may take time, other low emission and clean cooking
technologies may be promoted through attractive
schemes.
Since growing forests sequester more carbon than a
mature forest, the sequestration rate can be increased
by harvesting the wood, and locking up the carbon
by using timber in building construction or furniture.
This will also help in promoting sustainability by
replacing cement, steel and plastic. Use of wood
for construction and furniture should encouraged,
when the wood comes from sustainable social
forestry, which requires a practical and less intrusive
framework of social forestry in the country.
10.2.12 Research & Development (R&D)
India should recognize the importance of technological
innovations in implementing low carbon growth
strategies and harness research and development in
that direction. With due consideration to the targets, it
is crucial to innovate for reducing cost and increasing
the manufacturing capacity of domestic technology
in the area of renewables. Feasible power storage
options for solar and wind power, improved battery
technology to promote electric mobility, energy
effcient appliances and buildings, development
of advanced coal technologies suitable for Indian
conditions are important areas for research and
development.
In order to enable innovation, including its rapid
dissemination, it is necessary that research programmes
are designed with clear price and performance
targets. Research hubs should be supported in
existing academic and research institutions to support
advanced technology development, capacity building
of manpower and facilities for testing. Appropriate
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
125
agencies should be mandated to aggregate demand
and enable bulk procurement when technologies
with specifed price and performance targets become
available. Cost sharing facilities should be available
for installation of early models of new technologies,
in user premises, to assess their operative performance
under actual working conditions.
In addition to R & D for technology development,
research to value externalities is critical for rational
policy making. We also recommend a dedicated
research programme to value costs and benefts of
externalities of low carbon policies.
10.3 Implementation Framework
Low carbon targets and policy instruments need to
be mapped with each other, and to all stakeholders,
including both private sector and Government at
different levels. An implementation framework which
outlines this relationship is summarised in Table 10.2.
Table 10.2 Implementaton Framework
Sr.
No.
Low Carbon
Strategy
Target by 2030 Stakeholders Policy Instruments
1 Advanced Coal
Technologies
Super Critcal and Ultra Super
Critcal Coal Plants should account
for at least half of the coal based
generaton capacity.
Ministry of Power, Ministry of Coal,
CSIR, NTPC and other PSUs, CEA, State
Utlites, Private Power Developers,
PGCIL.
Energy Pricing, Coal Cess, PAT.
2 Hydroelectric
Power Generaton
Installed capacity of 75 GW. Ministry of Power, Ministry of Water
Resources, , MoEF, CSIR, NHPC, PGCIL,
CEA, Private Developers, State Utlites.
Energy Pricing, Grid Balancing,
Environment Regulaton.
3 Natonal Wind
Mission
Installed capacity of 120 GW. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy,
Ministry of Power, CSIR, , CEA, Private
Developers, CWET, PGCIL, State Utlites.
Capital Subsidy, Interest
Subventon, FiT, GBI, RPO,
Energy Pricing.
4 Natonal Solar
Mission
Installed capacity of 100 GW. Ministry of Power, CSIR, Ministry of
New and Renewable Energy, CEA, State
Utlites, NISE, Private Developers.
Capital Subsidy, Interest
Subventon, FiT, GBI, RPO,
Energy Pricing.
5 Nuclear Power Installed capacity of 40 GW. Department of Atomic Energy, CSIR,
PGCIL, CEA.
Government Budgetary
Support, Energy Pricing,
Liability Law.
6 Dedicated Freight
Corridors (DFCs),
Larger Rail Share in
Freight Transport
DFCs along the quadrilateral linking
the four metropolitan cites and
their diagonals.
Ministry of Railways, Internatonal
Funding Agencies, State Governments,
Private Developers.
Independent tarif regulatory
authority.
7 Urban Public
Transport
All cites should be covered with
efcient means of public transport.
Ministry of Transport, State Transport
Authorites, Urban Local Bodies, Local
Transport Corporatons.
Independent Tarif Setng
Mechanism, Government
Budgetary Support.
8 Fuel Efciency of
Vehicles
Both private and commercial
vehicles should be compliant to
Euro 6 standards.
BEE, Ministry of Transport, Department
of Science and Technology.
Fuel Efciency Standards.
9 Energy Efciency in
Industry
PAT Scheme for designated
consumers only, and Energy
Conservaton Fund for all non-PAT
industrial units.
Industry Associatons, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry Corporatons,
BEE, Private Industries, PSUs.
PAT, Energy Conservaton
Fund.
10 Energy
Conservaton and
Building Codes
All States and Urban Local Bodies
to mandate ECBC for commercial
buildings and residental.
apartments.
BEE, State Governments and Urban
Local Bodies
ECBC, Property tax, Floor Area
Regulatons.
11 Appliance Labelling
Programme
The Star Labelling Programme
to cover all electrical appliances.
Near Universal Coverage of Super-
Efcient Lightng (CFLs+LEDs).
BEE, Private Industries, DIPP. Mandatory Standards,
Informaton Labelling.
12 GHG Inventory and
Data Management
System
Inventories of GHG gases such as
CO
2
, CH
4
, N
2
O, HFCs, PFCs and SF
6

should to be prepared and reported
annually.
Ministry of Environment and
Forestry, Planning Commission,
Ministry of Statstcs and Programme
Implementaton.
Mandatory Reportng
Requirements, Independent
Inventory Agency.
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LOW CARBON STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
10.4 Conclusion
Designing an appropriate mix of policy instruments,
and implementation of low carbon strategies, is a task
that is highly multi-sectoral and inter-disciplinary
in nature. A body like the Planning Commission,
whose mandate is to formulate growth policy and
coordinate it across the Central Ministries and the
State Governments, is best placed to monitor the
achievement of these targets and place it before the
Union Cabinet for information and direction. The
Expert Group strongly recommends that this should
be done on a yearly basis. It is no longer possible
to pursue growth, inclusion and sustainability as
independent imperatives. Faster, sustainable and more
inclusive growth can only be realised, when all these
goals are pursued together, in a unifed framework, as
systematic components of a well thought out growth
strategy.
Planning Commission
Government of India
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The Final Report of the Expert Group on
Low Carbon Strategies for Inclusive Growth