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ME MOR A N D U M


TO: NRCC
ALEX MOONEY FOR U.S. CONGRESS

FROM: BRIAN C. TRINGALI
BJ MARTINO
MICHAEL WIENER

RE: A SURVEY OF VOTERS IN WEST VIRGINIA CD 2

DATE: MAY 23, 2014
______________________________________________________________________________


The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our recently completed
survey of N=400 likely voters in West Virginia’s Second Congressional District. The Alex
Mooney for U.S. Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee
(NRCC) jointly commissioned The Tarrance Group to conduct a telephone survey following
Mooney’s successful primary effort. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of
error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered May 20-22.

The Second Congressional District of West Virginia is the congressional seat being vacated as
Shelly Moore Capito runs for the U.S. Senate. After his impressive primary victory, Alex
Mooney begins the race with a 10-point lead against the Democrat nominee. This is the result
with all 4 candidates who will appear on the ballot. Turnout modeling puts Mooney at a 12-point
advantage.

One of the biggest challenges facing former Democratic party chairman Nick Casey is his
connection to Barack Obama. Just 30% of the voters in this congressional district approve of the
President’s performance in office and 65% disapprove – 59% strongly disapprove. Among
Independent voters, the President’s performance score is even lower (17% approve and 76%
disapprove).

201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
(703) 836-8256 FAX
btringali@tarrance.com


THE TARRANCE GROUP
www.tarrance.com
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CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT

All Turnout
Voters Model
% %

Alex Mooney (Republican) 39 (+10) 43 (+12)
Nick Casey (Democrat) 29 31
Davy Jones (Libertarian) 3 4
Ed Rabel (Independent) 10 11
Undecided 19 11



PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL

All Independent
Voters Voters
% %

Approve/strongly 18 9
Approve/somewhat 11 30% 9 17%
Unsure 6 7
Disapprove/somewhat 6 65% 9 76%
Disapprove/strongly 59 67




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