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With the continued growth and
proliferation of Web services and Web based
information systems, the volumes of user data have
reached astronomical proportions. Analyzing such
data using Web Usage Mining can help to determine
the visiting interests or needs of the web user. As web
log is incremental in nature, it becomes a crucial issue
to predict exactly the ways how users browse
websites. It is necessary for web miners to use
predictive mining techniques to filter the unwanted
categories for reducing the operational scope. Markov
models& its variations have also been used to analyze
web navigation behavior of users. A user's web link
transition on a particular website can be modeled
using first, second-order or higher-order Markov
models and can be used to make predictions
regarding future navigation and to personalize the
web page for an individual user. All higher order
Markov model holds the promise of achieving higher
prediction accuracies, improved coverage than any
single-order Markov model but holds high state space
complexity. Hence a Hybrid Markov Model is
required to improve the operation performance and
prediction accuracy significantly. Markov model is
assumed to be a probability model by which users’
browsing behaviors can be predicted at category level.
Bayesian theorem can also be applied to present and
infer users’ browsing behaviors at webpage level. In
this research, Markov models and Bayesian theorem
are combined and a two-level prediction model is
designed. By the Markov Model, the system can
effectively filter the possible category of the websites
and Bayesian theorem will help to predict websites
accuracy. The experiments will show that our
provided model has noble hit ratio for prediction.

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Web User Behavior Analysis Using Improved

Nave Bayes Prediction Algorithm

B.Harindra Varma

M.Tech(C.S.E)

Gudlavalleru Engineering College,

Gudlavalleru

K.Ashok Reddy

Assistant Professor(C.S.E)

Gudlavalleru Engineering

College, Gudlavalleru

S.Narayana

Associate Professor (C.S.E),

Gudlavalleru Engineering College

Abstract With the continued growth and

proliferation of Web services and Web based

information systems, the volumes of user data have

reached astronomical proportions. Analyzing such

data using Web Usage Mining can help to determine

the visiting interests or needs of the web user. As web

log is incremental in nature, it becomes a crucial issue

to predict exactly the ways how users browse

websites. It is necessary for web miners to use

predictive mining techniques to filter the unwanted

categories for reducing the operational scope. Markov

models& its variations have also been used to analyze

web navigation behavior of users. A user's web link

transition on a particular website can be modeled

using first, second-order or higher-order Markov

models and can be used to make predictions

regarding future navigation and to personalize the

web page for an individual user. All higher order

Markov model holds the promise of achieving higher

prediction accuracies, improved coverage than any

single-order Markov model but holds high state space

complexity. Hence a Hybrid Markov Model is

required to improve the operation performance and

prediction accuracy significantly. Markov model is

assumed to be a probability model by which users

browsing behaviors can be predicted at category level.

Bayesian theorem can also be applied to present and

infer users browsing behaviors at webpage level. In

this research, Markov models and Bayesian theorem

are combined and a two-level prediction model is

designed. By the Markov Model, the system can

effectively filter the possible category of the websites

and Bayesian theorem will help to predict websites

accuracy. The experiments will show that our

provided model has noble hit ratio for prediction.

Keywords Webusage,Hidden Markov, Bayes,Data

Mining.

I. INTRODUCTION

The Web is a huge, explosive, diverse,

dynamic and mostly unstructured data repository, which

supplies incredible amount of information, and also raises

the complexity of how to deal with the information from

the different perspectives of view, users, web service

providers, business analysts. The users want to have the

effective search tools to find relevant information easily

and precisely. The Web service providers want to find the

way to predict the users behaviors and personalize

information to reduce the traffic load and design the

Website suited for the different group of users. The

business analysts want to have tools to learn the

user/consumers needs. All of them are expecting tools or

techniques to help them satisfy their demands and/or

solve the problems encountered on the Web. Therefore,

Web mining becomes a popular active area and is taken

as the research topic for this investigation. Web Usage

Mining is the application of data mining techniques to

discover interesting usage patterns from Web data, in

order to understand and better serve the needs of Web-

based applications.

Here our task is related to the web usage

mining which basically Consist task related to the use of

web where the access of the web will considered and the

navigation pattern and the prediction operation will

performed in the mining of this kind we will use the

database in the form of the web log files and we will

generate the results on the basis of the database

given.Markov models have been used for studying and

understanding stochastic processes, and were shown to be

well-suited for modeling and predicting a users

browsing behavior on a web-site.In general, the input for

these problems is the sequence of web-pages that were

accessed by a user and the goal is to build Markov

models[2] that can be used to model and predict the web-

page that the user will most likely access next[3]. In

many applications, first-order Markov models are not

very accurate in predicting the users browsing behavior,

since these models do not look far into the past to

correctly discriminate the different observed patterns.As

a result, higher-order models are often used.

Unfortunately, these higher-order models have a number

of limitations associated with high state-space

complexity, reduced coverage, and sometimes even

worse prediction accuracy.One method proposed

toovercome the problem is the clustering and cloning to

duplicate the state corresponding to page that require a

longer history to understand the choice of link that users

made.Initially when the web log is not available means

the web site is newly launched the prediction or the

navigation decision will mad on the page rank our page

rank strategy will also used to resolve the ambiguity of

the model.Our model will use the basic strategy for the

International J ournal of Computer Trends and Technology (IJ CTT) volume 5 number 2 Nov 2013

ISSN: 2231-2803 http://www.ijcttjournal.org Page108

preparing the model is the page rank , and variable length

markov model, the problem of ambiguity in the markov

model will solve on the basis of the page rank and the

page rank will also used in the initial stage when the web

log file is not available.

Markov model have been used for studying and

understanding stochastic processes, and well suited for

modeling and predicting a users browsing behavior on a

web. In general, the input for these problems is the

sequence of web pages that are accessed by a user and

the goal is built Markov model that can be used to predict

the web user usage behavior. The state space of the

Markov model depends on the number of previous

actions used in predicting the next action. The simplest

Markov model predicts the next action by only looking at

the last action performed by the user. In this model, also

known as the first order Markov model, each action that

can be performed by a user corresponds to a state in the

model. A somewhat more complicated model computes

the prediction by looking at the last two actions

performed by the user. This is called the second order

Markov model, and its states correspond to all possible

pairs of action that can be performed in sequence. This

approach is generalized to the nth order Markov model,

which computes the prediction by looking at the last N

actions performed by the user, leading to a state space

that contains all possible sequences of N actions.

In most of the applications, the first-order Markov model

has low accuracy in achieving right predictions, which is

why extensions to higher order models are necessary. All

higher order Markov model holds the promise of

achieving higher prediction accuracies and improved

coverage than any single-order Markov model, at the

expense of a dramatic increase in the statespace

complexity

II. LITERATURE SURVEY

Myra Spiliopoulou [1] suggests applying Web usage

mining to website evaluation to determine needed

modifications, primarily to the sites design of page

content and link structure between pages. Eirinaki et al.

[2] propose a method that incorporates link analysis, such

as the page rank measure, into a Markov model in order

to provide Web path recommendations. Schechter et al.

[3] utilized a tree-based data structure that represents the

collection of paths inferred from the log data to predict

the next page access. Chen and Zhang [4] utilized a

Prediction by Partial Match forest that restricts the roots

to popular nodes; assuming that most user sessions start

in popular pages, the branches having a Non popular

page as their root are pruned. R. Walpole, R. Myers and

S. Myers [5] proposed Bayesian theorem can be used to

predict the most possible users next request.

The Hybrid Successive Markov Predictive Model HSMP

has been used for investigation and understanding

stochastic process and it was to be well suited for

modeling and predicting users browsing behavior in the

Web log Scenario. In most of the applications, the first-

order Markov model has low accuracy in achieving right

predictions, which is why extensions to higher order

models are necessary. All higher order Markov model

holds the promise of achieving higher prediction

accuracies and improved coverage than any single-order

Markov model, at the expense of a dramatic increase in

the state-space complexity. Hence, the authors proposes

techniques for intelligently combining different order

Markov models so that the resulting model has low state

space complexity, improved prediction accuracy and

retains the coverage of the all higher order Markov

model.

Problems in Existing Work:

1) We propose a new two-tier prediction framework to

improve prediction time. Such framework can

accommodate various prediction models

2) We present an analysis study for Markov model and

all-Kth model

3) We propose a new modified Markov model that

handles the excess memory requirements in case of large

data sets by reducing the number of paths during the

training and testing phases.

4) We conduct extensive experiments on three

benchmark data sets to study different aspects of the

WPP using Markov model, modified Markov model,

ARM, and all- Kth Markov model. Our analysis and

results show that higher order Markov model produces

better prediction accuracy.

III. PROPOSED SYSTEM

In this section, we propose another Improved variation of

Markov model by reducing the number of paths in the

model so that it can fit in the memory and predict

faster[1]. Web prediction is perfomed on the following

data :

International J ournal of Computer Trends and Technology (IJ CTT) volume 5 number 2 Nov 2013

ISSN: 2231-2803 http://www.ijcttjournal.org Page109

HMM BASED BAYES APPROACH:

BAYESIAN CLASSIFICATION

Bayesian classifiers are statistical classifiers.

They can predict class membership probabilities,

such as the probability that a given tuple belongs

to a particular class. Bayesian classification is

based on Bayes theorem. Nave Bayesian

classifiers assume that the effect of an attribute

value on a given class is independent of the values

of the other attributes. This assumption is called

class conditional independence. It is made to

simplify the computations involved and, in this

sense, is considered nave. Bayesian belief

networks are graphical models, which unlike nave

Bayesian classifiers, allow the representation of

dependencies among subsets of attributes.

Bayesian belief networks can also be used for

classification.

Bayes Theorem

Bayes theorem is named after Thomas

Bayes, a nonconformist English clergyman who did

early work in probability and decision theory

during the 18th century. Let X be a data tuple. In

Bayesian terms, X is considered evidence. As

usual, it is described by measurements made on a

set of n attributes. Let H be some hypothesis, such

as that the data tuple X belongs to a specified class

C. For classification problems, we want to

determine P(H/X), the probability that the

hypothesis H holds given the evidence or

observed data tuple X. In other words, we are

looking for the probability that tuple X belongs to

class C, given that we know the attribute

description of X. P(H/X) is the posterior

probability, or a posteriori probability, of H

conditioned on X. For example, suppose our world

of data tuples is confined to customers described

by the attributes age and income, respectively, and

that X is a 35-year-old customer with an income of

$40,000. Suppose that H is the hypothesis that our

customer will buy a computer. Then P(H/X)

reflects the probability that customer X will buy a

computer given that we know the customers age

and income. In contrast, P(H) is the prior

probability, or a priori probability, of H. For our

example, this is the probability that any given

customer will buy a computer, regardless of age,

income, or any other information, for that matter.

The posterior probability, P(H/X), is based on

more information (e.g., customer information) than

the prior probability, P(H), which is independent

of X. Similarly, P(X/H) is the posterior probability

of X conditioned on H. That is, it is the probability

that a customer, X, is 35 years old and earns

$40,000, given that we know the customer will buy

a computer. P(X) is the prior probability ofX.Using

our example, it is the probability that a person

from our set of customers is 35 years old and earns

$40,000. P(X/H), and P(X) may be estimated from

the given data, as we shall see below. Bayes

theorem is useful in that it provides a way of

calculating the posterior probability, P(H/X), from

P(H), P(X/H), and P(X). Bayes theorem is

Nave Bayesian Classification

The nave Bayesian classifier, or simple Bayesian

classifier, works as follows:

1. Let D be a training set of tuples and their

associated class labels. As usual, each tuple is

represented by an n-dimensional attribute vector, X

= (x1, x2, : : : , xn), depicting n measurements

made on the tuple from n attributes, respectively,

A1, A2, : : : , An.

2. Suppose that there are m classes, C1, C2, : : : ,

Cm. Given a tuple, X, the classifier will predict

that X belongs to the class having the highest

posterior probability, conditioned on X. That is,

the nave Bayesian classifier predicts that tuple X

International J ournal of Computer Trends and Technology (IJ CTT) volume 5 number 2 Nov 2013

ISSN: 2231-2803 http://www.ijcttjournal.org Page110

belongs to the class Ci if and only if P(Ci/X) >

P(Cj/X). Thus we maximize P(Ci/X). The classCi

for which P(Ci/X) is maximized is called the

maximum posteriori hypothesis. By Bayes

theorem

3. As P(X) is constant for all classes, only

P(X/Ci)P(Ci) need be maximized. If the class prior

probabilities are not known, then it is commonly

assumed that the classes are equally likely, that is,

P(C1) = P(C2) = .. = P(Cm). Given data sets

with many attributes, it would be extremely

computationally expensive to compute P(X/Ci). In

order to reduce computation in evaluating P(X/Ci),

the naive assumption of class conditional

independence is made. This presumes that the

values of the attributes are conditionally

independent of one another, given the class label

of the tuple (i.e., that there are no dependence

relationships among the attributes). Thus,

We can easily estimate the probabilities P(x1/Ci),

P(x2/Ci), : : : , P(xn/Ci) fromthe training tuples.

Recall that here xk refers to the value of attribute

Ak for tuple X. For each attribute, we look at

whether the attribute is categorical or continuous

valued.

Finally m prediction existing model is applied for

classi fying the rules[1].

IV. RESULTS

All experiments were performed with the configurations

Intel(R) Core(TM)2 CPU 2.13GHz, 2 GB RAM, and the

operating system platform is Microsoft Windows XP

Professional (SP2).

Existing results:

Country:

Texas -> 23.0

Florida -> 54.0

Illinois -> 24.0

Ontario -> 28.0

Washington -> 35.0

Oklahoma -> 53.0

California -> 29.0

Oregon -> 26.0

Alberta -> 41.0

Kentucky -> 49.0

North_Carolina -> 18.0

Georgia -> 26.0

Pennsylvania -> 24.0

Indiana -> 55.0

Virginia -> 25.0

Australia -> 27.0

Michigan -> 28.0

Ohio -> 28.0

Connecticut -> 17.0

Rhode_Island -> 41.0

New_York -> 26.0

United_Kingdom -> 22.0

Massachusetts -> 41.0

Saskatchewan -> 34.0

Idaho -> 60.0

Wisconsin -> 17.0

New_Jersey -> 45.0

Italy -> 37.0

South_Dakota -> 23.0

Louisiana -> 28.0

Vermont -> 44.0

Missouri -> 25.0

Mississippi -> 36.0

Netherlands -> 28.0

Kansas -> 28.0

Alaska -> 69.0

Minnesota -> 28.0

Colorado -> 26.0

Maryland -> 32.0

Utah -> 28.0

Nevada -> 27.0

Washington_D.C. -> 35.0

Wyoming -> 27.0

Arizona -> 41.0

New_Hampshire -> 53.0

South_Carolina -> 53.0

Delaware -> 49.0

Tennessee -> 25.0

Sweden -> 28.0

Afghanistan -> 36.0

Iowa -> 35.0

British_Columbia -> 53.0

Arkansas -> 25.0

Montana -> 41.0

France -> 26.0

Alabama -> 39.0

Kuwait -> 50.0

International J ournal of Computer Trends and Technology (IJ CTT) volume 5 number 2 Nov 2013

ISSN: 2231-2803 http://www.ijcttjournal.org Page111

Finland -> 49.0

Switzerland -> 30.0

New_Zealand -> 19.0

Belgium -> 30.0

China -> 25.0

Spain -> 25.0

Manitoba -> 16.0

Maine -> 49.0

Hong_Kong -> 51.0

Nebraska -> 44.0

Germany -> 43.0

West_Virginia -> 55.0

Brazil -> 28.0

New_Brunswick -> 27.0

Quebec -> 34.0

Other -> 33.0

Colombia -> 33.0

Hawaii -> 28.0

Japan -> 30.0

South_Africa -> 35.0

Portugal -> 30.0

New_Mexico -> 28.0

Austria -> 49.0

India -> 34.0

Namibia -> 35.0

Argentina -> 66.0

Israel -> 31.0

Ireland -> 32.0

(123/672 instances correct)

Accuracy for single country predition:

Correctly Classified Instances 16 4.381 %

Incorrectly Classified Instances 656 95.619 %

Proposed Approach Results:

Primary_Language = English &&

Actual_Time = Other &&

Race = White &&

Age = 35.0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Actual_Time = Other &&

Community_Membership_Religious > 0 &&

Who_Pays_for_Access_Self > 0 &&

Not_Purchasing_Security <= 0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Community_Membership_Religious > 0 &&

Community_Membership_Family > 0 ==> Other

Primary_Language = English &&

Actual_Time = Other &&

Community_Membership_Religious <= 0 &&

Race = White &&

Major_Geographical_Location = USA &&

Disability_Not_Impaired <= 0 &&

who > 90441 ==> Computer

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Actual_Time = Other &&

Community_Membership_Religious <= 0 &&

Major_Geographical_Location = USA &&

Not_Purchasing_No_credit > 0 &&

Community_Membership_Hobbies <= 0 &&

Opinions_on_Censorship <= 3 ==> Other

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Actual_Time = Other &&

Community_Membership_Religious <= 0 &&

Major_Geographical_Location = USA &&

Not_Purchasing_No_credit > 0 ==> Computer

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 29.0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = Not_Say ==> Computer

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Not_Purchasing_Not_option > 0 &&

Not_Purchasing_Cant_find <= 0 ==> Computer

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 42.0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 37.0 &&

Sexual_Preference = Heterosexual ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 37.0 ==> Management

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 27.0 &&

Not_Purchasing_Privacy <= 0 ==> Management

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 27.0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 47.0 ==> Other

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 38.0 &&

Gender = Male ==> Professional

International J ournal of Computer Trends and Technology (IJ CTT) volume 5 number 2 Nov 2013

ISSN: 2231-2803 http://www.ijcttjournal.org Page112

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 30.0 &&

How_You_Heard_About_Survey_Others <= 0 ==>

Management

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 45.0 &&

Gender = Male ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 26.0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 40.0 ==> Computer

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 54.0 ==> Education

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

Age = 30.0 ==> Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Age = 24.0 &&

Community_Membership_Hobbies <= 0 ==>

Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Race = White &&

How_You_Heard_About_Survey_Others <= 0 ==>

Professional

Primary_Language = English &&

Falsification_of_Information = Never ==> Other

Not_Purchasing_Other <= 0 &&

Gender = Male &&

Not_Purchasing_Bad_press <= 0 ==> Computer

Community_Membership_Other <= 0 &&

Major_Geographical_Location = USA ==> Management

Community_Membership_Other <= 0 ==> Professional

: Other

Number of Rules : 89

Time taken to build model: 1.01 seconds

Time taken to test model on training data: 0.04 seconds

=== Error on training data ===

Correctly Classified Instances 617 93.8155 %

Incorrectly Classified Instances 55 6.1845 %

Performance Analysis:

Below graph shows the time comparison between existing

and proposed approach.

Time(ms)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Time(ms)

Time(ms) 23 11

Exist ing HMM Proposed Bayes

Below graph shows the Accuracy comparison between

existing and proposed approach.

0

50

100

Exist ing HMM

predict ion

Proposed Bayes Based

HMM

Exist ing

HMM

predict ion

20.3 79.69

Proposed

Bayes Based

HMM

75.95 24.04

Correct l

y

Incorrect

ly

V. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE SCOPE

Because of the huge quantity of data of web pages on

many portal sites, for convenience, are to assemble the

web page based on category. In this paper, users

browsing behavior will be observed at two levels to meet

the nature of the webusage data. The scope of calculation

is massively reduced. Next, using Bayesian theorem in

the level two to predict the users browsing page is more

effective and accurate. The results of experiment prove

the Hit Ratio is well in both levels. Proposed approach

give more prediction on multiple attributes compare to

existing approach with less error rate.

REFERENCES

[1] Prediction of Users Web-Browsing Behavior:

Application of Markov Model Mamoun A. Awad

and Issa Khalil, IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON

SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICSPART

B: CYBERNETICS, VOL. 42, NO. 4, AUGUST

2012.

International J ournal of Computer Trends and Technology (IJ CTT) volume 5 number 2 Nov 2013

ISSN: 2231-2803 http://www.ijcttjournal.org Page113

[2] An Efficient Hybrid Successive Markov Model for

Predicting Web User Usage Behavior using Web

Usage Mining V.V.R.Maheswara Rao, International

Journal of Data Engineering (IJDE).

[3]. S. Schechter, M. Krishnan, and M. Smith, Using Path

Profiles to Predict HTTP Requests, Computer

Networks and ISDN Systems, vol. 30, pp. 457-467,

1998.

[4]. X. Chen and X. Zhang, A Popularity-Based

reduction Model for Web Pre fetching, Computer,

pp. 63-70, 2003.

[5]. Eugene Charniak. Statistical Language Learning. The

MIT Press, 1996.

[6]. X. Chen and X. Zhang. A popularity-based

prediction model for web prefetching. Computer,

36(3):63{70, March 2003.

[7]. M. Deshpande and G. Karypis. Selective markov

models for predicting web page accesses. ACM

Transactions on Internet Technology, 4(2):163{184,

2004.

[8]. X. Dongshan and S. Junyi. A new markov model for

web access prediction. Com- puting in Science and

Engineering, 4(6):34{39, November/December

2002.

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