International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 13, No.

1, 1999

On the Limits of the Post-Industrial Society Structural Change and Service Sector Employment in Spain

 DANIEL DIAZ FUENTES

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to examine the growth and the structure of employment in the service sector in the Spanish Economy from 1958 to 1989 and to draw comparisons with the trends exhibited by other European countries. In contrast to the explanation offered by the theory of stages, which assumes that growth in services is associated with the pattern of ® nal demand, this research argues that, since the middle of the 1970s, the growth of market service employment is due to an increase in intermediate demand of services. In order to demonstrate this, an intersectoral analysis is applied to input output data which was homogenised for this research. This methodological approach enables employment in the service sector to be connected to the other sectors. Rejecting the idea that services are replacing manufacturing as the new engine of growth, the results show an increased dependence on market services by industrial production. The ® nal part of the paper presents explanations for this trend. 1. Introduction In the light of Fisher (1935) and Clark’ s (1940) division of the economy into three sectors (agriculture, industry and services), it could be argued that the `service or tertiary society’ is the stage towards which all countries are moving. In Spain, as in all OECD countries, one of the main structural changes has been a shift in employment towards services. A computed regression of 24 countries between 1960 and 1990 shows that there was a signi® cant positive correlation between GDP per capita and the share of employment in the service sector. The primary interpretation of the `tertiary process’ was the `theory of stages’ (Kindleberger, 1958; Rostow, 1960) whose explanation was based mainly on the patterns of ® nal consumption (Petty’ s Law and, speci® cally, Engel’ s Law: as GDP per capita increases, ® nal demand shifts towards superior goods including services). Furthermore, the growth of the service sector generated diverse interpretations about the `post-industrial societies’ (Bell, 1974), according to which the service sector is gradually taking the place of industry as the new engine of growth. However, different questions were raised about the growth in services with Baumol’s (1967) theory of unbalanced growth. Amongst the most important
Daniel DõÂ az Fuentes, Universidad de Cantabria, Department of Economics, Av. de los Castros s.n. E 39005 Santander, Spain. 0269-2171/99/010111-13 Ó 1999 Carfax Publishing Ltd

112

D. DõÂ az Fuentes

questions posed were those relating to the de® nition of the role of the pattern of consumption and the role of productivity differentials in relation to service output and employment growth. Fuchs & Leveson (1968) showed that the pattern of consumption had a less important role than that of productivity differentials. As a consequence of the lower productivity growth of the service sector as a whole compared with the manufacturing sector, plus the labour intensive characteristics of many services (`cost disease of personal service’), a secondary set of questions appeared when the intersectoral comparisons are made in constant or current prices (Gershuny & Miles, 1983; Kravis et al., 1983). In general, the increase in the contribution of services to GDP during the last three decades has stemmed more from changes in relative prices than from an increase in output. In order to understand this trend, however, it is necessary to distinguish between different services. One of the problems encountered when examining the `tertiary process’ is how services can be most accurately de® ned. Since the service sector is highly heterogeneous, it must be broken down into different categories according to the functions performed and to the market served: producer and consumer, distributive, social, personal, and business services, and market and non-market (Gershuny & Miles, 1983). Most of these branches have been incorporated gradually into the Systems of National Accounts (EUROSTAT, 1985; United Nations et al., 1993). In order to understand the shift towards the service economy, it is necessary to analyse what is being produced in the economic system and how it is being produced. One advantage of macroeconomic analysis based on input± output techniques is that it enables overall production to be disaggregated by sector and by subsystem. It then becomes possible to examine the growth of different services and industries in relation to the process of structural change of the economic system. Furthermore, since the evolution of a sector or sub-system is not independent of the rest of the economy, it is necessary to evaluate the links between sectors (intersectoral relations) in terms of exogenous changes of domestic ® nal demand, foreign demand and technical change. With these general premises in mind, and with a speci® c methodological approach, the following sections of this paper aim to explore a number of key questions about the Spanish economy during the period 1958± 89. (1) Can the growth of employment in market services be explained solely by the relative increase in the ® nal consumption of those services, or is it also necessary to consider the growth of intermediate demand of service (i.e. services which are used by ® rms in the productive system)? (2) Has the growth of services been caused by a greater demand for their use in the production of manufactured goods? (3) Does the relative decline in employment in the manufacturing sector imply that services are replacing industry as the new engine of growth? While accepting that there is a positive correlation between GDP per capita and the share of employment in services, this research seeks to analyse if this relationship can be explained by the shift of ® nal demand, as the stages of growth theory proposes, or whether it can be understood as a result of an increasing integration between manufacturing and services. The paper is organised into four parts. Section 2 considers the evolution of employment and structural change in the main industrialised countries (OECD,

Service Sector Employment in Spain

113

1992b). Section 3 presents the main trends of the Spanish economy and summaries the principal results obtained. These results have been obtained through the use of intersectoral analysis; the analysis being founded on the notion of vertical integration of the sub-systems (Sraffa, 1956; Pasinetti, 1981). Some implications of the results are drawn in part four. 2. Employment and Structural Change During the last three decades the world economy has exhibited extensive economic structural changes. At the same time, economic performance has varied signi® cantly; the real increase in OECD GDP and productivity during the period from 1973 to 1990 was half that experienced between 1960 and 1973. The slow-down of economic growth in OECD countries since 1973 has been accompanied by three signi® cant recessions, two oil shocks, growth of international trade, globalisation of ® nancial markets and the diffusion of a set of new technologies (Freeman & Soete, 1994). As a consequence of these changes, the economic structures of these countries have been transformed markedly, re¯ ecting structural, as opposed to cyclical, shifts in the composition of employment and production.1 Notable economists consider that the reasons for this slow-down and higher unemployment are structural and are either caused by restrictions in markets (labour),2 or by the lack of technological innovative capabilities.3 Certainly, despite the considerable economic growth in the postwar period (GDP growth rates for OECD countries averaged 3.8% between 1960 and 1973 and 2% between 1973 and 1990), labour absorption has been limited throughout the three decades, since employment average growth rates were 1.08% from 1960 to 1973 and 1.16% from 1973 to 1990. This trend has been even more signi® cant for EEC countries, whose GDP growth averaged 3.95% (1960± 73) and 1.97% (1973± 90) while total employment growth rates were only 0.25 and 0.46 per cent for the respective periods. Considering the problems of labour absorption during the `golden age’ , it is interesting to explore the employment trends since the turning point of the middle of the 1970s (OECD, 1987, 1992b). Taking a global measure of the extent of structural change of the major sectors for the main industrialised countries including Spain (Table 1), it is clear that there are basic similarities in the patterns of structural change among countries during the whole period: agriculture is declining while services are increasing as a share of overall employment and GDP. However, countries differ widely in the sectoral composition of employment, in the proportion of structural adjustment, and in the degree of ¯ exibility which work organisation displays in response to changes. On the one hand, from 1960 to 1973, some countries showed an increase in structural changes and industrial employment (Japan, Spain, Italy and France) and GDP shares (Japan and Spain), implying a signi® cant catching-up in comparison with the leader country (US). On the other hand, from 1973 to 1990, the contribution of services to GDP has declined in the two countries with higher productivity growth (Japan and Germany). Furthermore, structural change can be considered as a source of growth. This applies, in particular, to countries in which employment is high in agriculture and productivity is low, since labour can be reallocated to other sectors of higher productivity.4 The classi® cation of the main sectors into three parts is a conventional but limited method of measuring the extent of structural change. A more accurate approach would be to disaggregate the three-sector evolution of GDP and employ-

114

D. DõÂ az Fuentes

Table 1. Changes in sectoral composition of employment: 1960± 73 and 1973± 90 (percentages) Agriculture 1960± 73 Spain Italy France Germany United Kingdom EU 12 United States Canada Japan Australia 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 15.5 15.1 11.9 7.0 1.9 9.4 4.3 6.9 17.3 4.1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1973± 90 11.4 8.5 4.5 3.6 0.7 5.2 1.4 2.1 5.7 1.3 2 2 2 2 2 Industry 1960± 73 6.9 5.4 1.8 0.8 5.7 0.7 2.8 2.2 8.5 3.8 2 2 2 2 2 2 1973± 90 2 2 2 2 3.8 6.9 9.5 6.9 13.0 8.1 6.3 5.9 2.9 9.7 Services 1960± 73 8.6 9.7 10.1 7.3 7.6 8.7 7.1 9.1 8.8 7.9 1973± 90 15.2 15.4 14.0 10.5 13.7 13.3 7.7 8.0 8.6 11.0

Source: Elaborated by the author based on OECD (1982, 1987 and 1992a).

ment in relation to the different trends in each individual sector, so it would become possible to distinguish growing, medium and declining growth activities.5 A complementary measurement of structural change in terms of direction could be obtained by classifying the branches according to their R&D intensity as: high, medium and low technology.6 The latter approach would be useful in helping to evaluate the direction of structural change, but would fail to identify the transformations taking place between industries below the aggregate levels. Additionally, it could not connect the change in the structure to other factors such as shifts in domestic demand, foreign trade, technical change or input productivity. A more precise de® nition of compositional structural change considers changes in the sectoral composition of an economy output, value-added or employment shares reported for different sectors, and the changes in the inputs used by them. It implies a disaggregated examination by sector of the capital and labour used, and the interrelations among sectors (intermediate inputs), both domestic and imported. The advantage of this method is that it provides a detailed image of how the structure of an economic system and its linkages are at one moment, and how they have unfolded over time. However, its weakness is that it does not allow the examination of the institutional factors behind the compositional change. The evaluation of both the extent and direction is connected to the broad sources of change for each sector, namely: domestic demand, exports, import substitution and pattern of inter-industry linkages in the economy (referred to as technical change), and this represents the path of change followed to reach a speci® c sectoral structure. The input± output (IO) technique enables changes in output and employment to be estimated, and is also useful in helping to evaluate the relationship between employment and technical change. The temporal variations of IO intermediate coef® cients reveal signi® cant information about the technical change that operates in an economic system. In doing so, they represent an extension of previous measurements of structural change, and complement institutional analysis. An alternative analysis is based on the concept of the sub-system and the notion of a vertically integrated sector, which was introduced by Sraffa (1960) and

Service Sector Employment in Spain

115

Pasinetti (1967, 1981) for theoretical purposes, but can also be used in applied terms (Siniscalco, 1988).

3. The Case of Spain Spain’s overall economic performance was outstanding during the 1960s and the beginning of the 1970s, but from 1973 to 1985 it deteriorated substantially. Its integration into the EC in 1986 was accompanied by a new boost which lasted until 1990, when another recession started. From 1964 to 1973, both the labour force and employment increased consistently and in practically the same manner, with a gap between them of about 2 percentage points. After 1973, however, while the labour force remained more or less constant, employment fell very rapidly, showing in 1984± 87 and 1991± 97 a gap of over 20 percentage points with respect to the labour force. The high level of unemployment is the worst feature of the recent evolution of the Spanish economy (Dolado et al., 1987; Bentolila & Blanchard, 1990; Layard et al., 1994). The Spanish occupational structure has undergone substantial changes during the last three decades. While the share of industry (building and manufacturing) in overall employment has remained more or less constant, that of agriculture has fallen dramatically, the decline having being completely absorbed by services. In 1960, agricultural employment represented 38.7 per cent of total employment, while employment in services totalled 31%. By 1990, the respective shares were 11.8 and 54.8%. This represents, by any standard, a major structural change, differentiating Spain from the other more advanced European countries, and possibly in¯ uencing the overall unemployment rate. In Table 2 the vectors of employment are illustrated by seven sectors (rows). Since the EUROSTAT (1992) input± output tables (IOTs) are broken down into the periods: 1959, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, the research selected the periods which corresponded most accurately to the data on Spain and the last INE (1994) IOT: 1989. The task of homogenising this information was complex, given the different methodologies and aggregations used. The main dif® culty experienced in completing this research was associated with these data. The IOTs have been revised ® ve times (1958, 1962, 1970, 1975 and 1985) in different ways according to the various institutions that assembled them (Organizacion Sindical Espanola Â Ä 1958 and 1962, Ministerio de Plani® cacion 1970, the revision of FIES 1975 to  EUROSTAT criteria, and INE since 1980 with the same criteria). EUROSTAT (1992) has revised and homogenised its methodology with the IOT database from 1959 to 1985. Many revisions involved substantial changes, and the data cannot be compared in their entirety. For these reasons the results must be taken to indicate general tendencies rather than to yield precise measures. In order to understand the shift towards the service economy it is important to examine the principal factors affecting both what is produced in the whole economy and how it is produced. This means that, when examining the service sector, it is not enough to look at this sector alone, since structural changes in the pattern of ® nal demand, the intermediate demand and the technical change must also be considered. Services form a network through which economic activity takes place. The process of structural change can in¯ uence the degree to which services are required throughout the whole economic system. The supply of services, in turn, makes it

116
D. DõÂ az Fuentes

Table 2. Employment by sector of activity (thousands of employees) 1966 4 364 169 2 702 1 068 1 033 2 133 730 12 199 3 757 146 2 898 1 161 1 227 2 367 824 12 380 2 978 153 3 312 1 222 1 558 2 635 974 12 832 2 243 153 3 038 1 073 1 507 2 536 1 225 11 774 1 954 159 2 487 805 1 433 2 773 1 439 11 049 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1 616 143 2 772 1 173 1 764 3 311 1 648 12 427

1958

1. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery 2. Energy products 3. Manufacturing 4. Building 5. Wholesale & Retail Trade 6. Market services 7. Non-market services Occupied Population

4 929 292 2 566 838 804 1 825 521 11 775

Sources: Elaborated by author based on CPDES (1964), Treadway (1988), Garcia & Gomez (1994), and INE (1995). Â Â

Service Sector Employment in Spain

117

possible to attain greater specialisation and division of labour. These factors are essential in reinforcing the observed shift towards service employment. In order to present the methodology, a sector will be de® ned as a cluster of branches (® rms) producing commodities in agreement with a standard classi® cation (NACE, CLIO), and a sub-system de® ned as a group of different activities that are required in the economic system to produce a speci® c commodity (goods or service). In the context of intersectoral relations, a sub-system consists of activities of different branches, all of which directly and indirectly contribute to the production of a speci® c ® nal output. The intersectoral relationships between branches and sub-systems from an IOT will be represented in a single table as matrix operator B, so: x5 x5 B5 Ax 1 L f XLF f (1) (2) (3)

where x is the vector of output by branch, A is the technical coef® cient matrix whose typical elements aij 5 xij /S xij represent the value of the ith input needed to produce one unit of industry j’ s output; L, known as the Leontief inverse, represents the total requirements per unit of ® nal output in terms of gross output; X is the inverse of the diagonalised vector x; and F is the diagonalised vector f of the ® nal demand by industry. The last two terms on the right-hand side of Equation (3), LF, correspond to the actual amount of all domestic input that is directly and indirectly required for the production of a ® nal commodity (columnj). When X is multiplied by the matrix LF the operator B is obtained (matrix of shares of production), the elements of which, (bij), show the share of total output (xi), which is required in the sub-systemj. The general results that have been extracted are as follows. First, Table 3 shows the indices of forward and backward linkages that have been obtained by summing the row and column elements of L. On the one hand, the backward linkages have increased through time in agriculture and market service, and have decreased in manufacturing and building. The overall evolution can be explained by a higher integration among activities, a diminished intersectoral heterogeneity of agriculture (more integrated with the rest of the economy). On the other hand, the forward linkages are decreasing in agriculture (less dependence on the rest of the economy), energy (in particular with the oil shocks of 1970s) and manufacturing since 1970. They are increasing in building and, in particular, in the market services sector, which shows the increasing role of this sector in relation to the rest of the economy. As might be expected, backward and forward linkages fell as result of the liberalisation of trade. Second, the matrix of B operators shows, in each row (of which the sum of elements is one), the percentage contribution of each sector to each sub-system. The computed matrices re¯ ect that, with the exception of the diagonal elements of self requirements, the Industrial Sector has maintained the key clusters. Third, the results of matrix operator B can be utilised to re-analyse variables associated to the production by a branch, such as employment, energy and R&D. This can be disaggregated to the highest level (Greenhalgh et al., 1988; Barker, 1990; Van der Linden & Oaterhaven, 1993). In this case, the diagonalised vector

118

D. DõÂ az Fuentes Table 3. Indices of backward and forward linkages by sector 1958± 89 Backward linkage by sector 1 2 1958 1966 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1011 1106 1080 1148 1136 1176 1189 0860 0869 0808 0811 0833 0807 0825 3 1477 1370 1280 1210 1212 1171 1129 1970 1111 0887 1914 0667 0739 1050 0632 4 1314 1323 1271 1227 1124 1104 1055 1975 1078 0991 1748 0701 0784 1021 0677 5 0828 0816 0778 0803 0828 0815 0818 1980 0942 1015 1755 0731 0726 1206 0624 6 0856 0878 0905 0908 1030 1063 1075 1985 0951 0990 1697 0700 0727 1314 0622 7 0655 0638 0878 0892 0838 0864 0910 1989 0933 0943 1656 0722 0752 1351 0643

Forward linkage by sector 1958 1966 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1208 0895 1659 0673 0763 1146 0655 1203 0833 1778 0678 0763 1089 0656

à this case, the diagonalised vector of employment u by branch (Table 2) has been used to calculate the matrix of employment U: U5 uB Ã

U shows, by rows, the amount of employment that each branch contributes to each sub-system (and of which the sums are the same total of u), and the columns of U show the employment of each sub-system. These matrices B and U disclose the direct and indirect shares of output and employment by sector and sub-system, and the indirect shares of output can be separated by replacing the Leontief inverse in Equation (3) and (4) by L 2 I. With this methodology, the employment in intermediate market service (Trade and others) can be separated by ® nal and intermediate requirements. 4. Conclusions The results can be summarised by the following three main points. (1) The growth of market service employment in Spain was due mainly to an increase in the ® nal demand and distributive services in the early period of development (1958± 75); and this can be explained by the stages of growth theory (Table 4). This is in marked contrast to the trends exhibited by the main advanced European countries which experienced constant growth in the share of employment due to intermediate market services between 1959 and 1990 (Table 5). However, in the recent period (1975± 90) the Spanish economy has exhibited trends similar to those of the other European countries. Therefore, the growth of market service employment in the Spanish (after 1975) and main European economies is not directly, nor mainly, due to an increase in ® nal consumption of services, but rather to an increase in the intermediate demand of services.

Table 4. Employment in intermediate and ® nal demand market services (thousands of employees and percentages) 1966 976 30.8 859 27.1 1331 42.0 3166 969 27.0 944 26.3 1681 46.8 3594 1089 20.0 1182 28.2 1921 45.8 4192 1213 30.0 1228 30.3 1608 39.7 4049 1970 1975 1980 1985 1408 33.4 1136 26.9 1674 39.7 4217 1989 1721 33.9 1414 27.9 1940 38.2 5075

1958

Intermediate market services % Final domestic trade services % Final demand services % Total market services

896 34.1 632 24.0 1101 41.9 2629

Service Sector Employment in Spain

119

120

D. DõÂ az Fuentes Table 5. Employment in intermediate market services as a percentage of total market services 1959 Germany France Italy UK 38.6 32.8 28.8 n.a. 1965 41.4 33.1 31.9 n.a. 1970 45.4 38.1 32.7 33.9 1975 46.7 36.9 36.2 40.4 1980 49.8 38.9 39.5 43.4 1985 50.6 40.3 42.4 46.5

Source: Computed from EUROSTAT (1992). Table 6. Employment in intermediate market services in industry as a sub-system (thousands of employees and %) 1958 Intermediate services for industry % of industrial sub-system 1966 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989

399 383 333 402 390 378 406 10.9 11.4 10.9 16.1 18.0 19.1 22.2

Although the positive relationship between GDP per capita and service shares of employment is accepted in this paper, the explanation for this relation as proposed in the theory of the stages is rejected. (2) The expansion in intermediate demand for services is accompanied by their increasing use in the production of manufactured goods in Spain, particularly after 1970 (Table 6), and in the principal European countries throughout the considered period (Table 7). This implies that the production of industrial goods goes beyond the industrial sector and requires increasing services. (3) The decline in employment in manufacturing does not imply that services are replacing industry as the `new engine of growth’. Manufacturing is the sector with higher productivity and the more signi® cant forward and backward linkages. Moreover, the more dynamic and R&D intensive manufacturing branches, such as computers and of® ce machinery, aerospace, pharmaceutical, and telecommunications equipment, are linked strongly with the more dynamic service branches. Growth in service employment must be explained by considering the increasing integration between services and industry. This relationship can be explained (Diaz-Fuentes, 1993) by the following four factors. First, the growing division of labour among sectors, which requires a complex network of services such as Transport, Communications, Bank and Insurance and Business Services to link the different sub-systems. Second, the expansion in foreign trade which is another
Table 7. Employment in intermediate market services as a percentage of industry as a sub-system 1959 Germany France Italy UK 11.3 8.1 6.1 n.a. 1965 11.8 10.1 9.7 n.a. 1970 13.1 11.7 11.5 12.4 1975 13.6 12.9 13.3 16.9 1980 16.1 15.6 17.3 22.2 1985 18.2 16.3 19.0 23.6

Source: Computed from EUROSTAT (1992).

Service Sector Employment in Spain

121

perspective of the division of labour. Third, the augmenting regulations (standards of quality, environment, etc.) which require specialised services such as legal, tax, engineering, publicity, training, ® nance, insurance and others. Fourth, the emergence of new economies of scale in the production of services, which induce a process of externalisation of the service activities. The application of intersectoral analysis in this research to Spain and other European countries has generated a different conclusion from that derived by the aggregated analysis, since the methodology allows the interpretation of the links between industries: service and manufacturing, and the set of employment that is directly and indirectly utilised to produce and distribute ® nal goods and services. Moreover, the results show that the process of structural change is not restricted to developing countries, but is an important phenomenon of semi-industrialised and industrialised countries.

Notes
The author is grateful to E.V.K. FitzGerald, J. Foreman-Peck and J.A. van der Linden, and also to the two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. 1. `Whilst economic theory has pointed to compensation mechanism generating new employment to replace jobs which are lost through technical change, no one has claimed that this process is instantaneous or painless. Economists differ however on the extent to which they would rely on self-adjusting market-clearing mechanism or on active public investment and labour market policies’ (see Freeman & Soete, 1994, pp. 17± 38). 2. Over the last decade the European unemployment rate has averaged 10%, which is a much more serious matter than the ¯ uctuations around the average. Conventional business cycles account for relatively little of the history of unemployment. Most of the annual variations in unemployment come from the long-frequency ¯ uctuations between half decades rather than from the short-frequency ¯ uctuations within half decades. This is because there are long term changes in social institutions, and the shocks (wars, oil or ® nancial crisis) have long-lasting effects, see Layard et al. (1994, pp. 91± 109). 3. These Information and Communication Technologies, although they have a vast range of present and future applications, do not yet easily match the inherited previous skill pro® le, management organisation, industrial structure or institutional framework. See Freeman & Soete (1994, pp. 47± 66). 4. There is some evidence, based on 30 countries for the period 1960± 90, that the GDP growth rates correspond negatively to increasing services shares. See Chenery (1986). 5. In OECD (1993, p. 18) the industries were classi® ed according to their annual growth rate (1974± 90) in the main industrialised countries as: High-Growth: 1. Computers and of® ce machinery, 2. Aerospace, 3. Communications, 4. Finance and insurance, 5. Business service, 6. Government, 7. Rubber and plastic, 8. Pharmaceutical, 9. Social and personal service, 10. Instruments. MediumGrowth: 11. Chemical, 12. Trade, 13. Transport, 14. Agriculture, 15. Electrical machinery, 16. Paper and printing, 17. Electricity, gas and water, 18. Non-ferrous metals, 19. Food, drink and tobacco, 20. Motor vehicles, 21. Hotels and restaurants. Low-Growth: 22. Mining, 23. Non-electrical machinery, 24. Construction, 25. Fabricated metals, 26. Stone, clay and glass, 27. Textiles, 28. Petroleum re® ning, 29. Wood and furnitures, 30. Ferrous metals, 31. Shipbuilding. 6. In OECD (1993) the 21 manufacturing branches across 11 industrialised countries are ranked according to R&D expenditures to gross output as a proxy of technological sophistication, with the following scheme: High-Tech: 1. Aerospace, 2. Computer and of® ce machinery, 3. Communication equipment, 4. Pharmaceutical, 5. Instruments, 6. Electrical machinery. Medium-Tech: 7. Motor vehicles, 8. Chemical, 9. Non-electrical machinery, 10. Rubber and plastic, 11. Non-ferrous metals, 12. Other transports. Low-Tech: 13. Stone, clay and glass, 14. Food, drink and tobacco, 15. Shipbuilding, 16. Petroleum re® ning, 17. Ferrous metals, 18. Fabricated metals, 19. Paper and printing, 20. Wood and furnitures, 21. Textiles, footwear and leather.

122

D. DõÂ az Fuentes

References
Barker, T. (1990) Sources of structural change of the UK service industries 1979± 1984, Economic System Research, 2, pp. 173± 183. Baumol, W. J. (1967) The macroeconomic of unbalanced growth. The anatomy of the urban crisis, American Economic Review, 57, pp. 415± 426. Bell, D. (1974) The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: a venture in social forecasting (London, Heinemann). Bentolila, S. & Blanchard, O. (1990) Spanish unemployment, Economic Policy, 10, pp. 234± 281. Bulmer-Thomas (1982) Input-Output Analysis in Developing Countries (New York, Wiley). Chenery, H. B. (1986) Growth and transformation, in: H. Chenery, S. Robinson & M. Syrquin (Eds), Industrialization and Growth (New York, World Bank-Oxford University Press). Clark, C. (1940) The Conditions of Economic Progress (London, Macmillan). Dõ az-Fuentes, D. (1993) Relaciones entre cambio tecnologico y empleo a partir del analisis input   output: Espana 1980± 1985, Revista de Economõ a y Sociologõ a del Trabajo, 19± 20, pp. 21± 33. Ä Dolado, J., Malo de Molina, J. & Zabalza, A. (1987) Spanish industrial unemployment: some explanatory factors, in: C. Bean & R. Layard (Eds), The Rise in Unemployment (Oxford, Basil Blackwell). EUROSTAT (Statistical Of® ce of the European Communities) (1985) European System of Integrated Econommic Accounts, ESA, (Luxembourg, EUROSTAT). EUROSTAT (1987) Input-Output Tables, 1975± 1980 (magnetic tape CEE IO TAB) (Luxembourg, EUROSTAT). EUROSTAT (1992) Coding System of the input± Output Tables Database of Eurostat used on Magnetic Support (National Accounts Tables), (Luxembourg, EUROSTAT). Fisher, A. G. B. (1935) The Clash of Progress and Security (London, Macmillan). Freeman, C. & Soete, L. (1994) Work for all or Mass Unemployment: computerised technical change into the 21st century, (London, Pinter). Fuchs, V. & Leveson, I. (1968) The Service Economy (New York, National Bureau of Economic Research).  Gracõ a Perea, P. & Gomez, R. (1994) Elaboracion de Series Historicas de Empleo a partir de la Encuesta  de Poblacion Activa, D. 38668 (Madrid, Banco de Espana). Â Ä Gershuny, J. & Miles, I. (1983) The New Service Economy: the transformation of employment in industrial societies (London, Pinter). Greenhalgh, C., Gregory, M. & Ray, A. (1988) Employment and Structural Change in Britain, Working Paper N°44, Institute of Economics and Statistics-University of Oxford. Ä INE [Instituto Nacional de Estadõ stica) (1994) Contabilidad Nacional de Espana. Base 1986. Cuentas Nacionales y tabla input-output 1989 (Madrid, INE). Kindleberger, C. (1958) Economic Development (New York, McGraw-Hill). Kravis, I. B., Heston, A. & Summer, R. (1983) The share of service in economic growth, in: F. G. Adam, & B. G. Hickman (Eds) Global Econometrics. Essays in honour of Lawrence R. Klein, (Cambridge MA) pp. 188± 219. Layard, R., Nickell, S. & Jackman, R. (1994) The Unemployment Crisis (Oxford, Oxford University Press). OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (1982) Historical Statistics 1960± 1980 (Paris, OECD). OECD (1987) Structural Adjustment and Economic Performance (Paris, OECD). OECD (1992a) Historical Statistics 1960± 1990 (Paris OECD). OECD (1992b) Structural Change and Industrial Performance (Paris, OECD). OECD (1993) Basic Science and Technology Statistics 1993 (Paris, OECD). Pasinetti, L. (1967) A new theoretical Approach to the problems of economic growth, in: Ponti® ciae Academiae Scientiarum Scripta Varia 28, Proceedings of a Study Week on the Econometric Approach to Development Planning (Amsterdam, North Holland). Pasinetti, L. (1981) Structural Change and Economic Growth. A theoretical essay on the dynamic of wealth of nations (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press). Perterson, W. (1987) Employment, in: T. Barker & W. Peterson. The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of British Economy (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press). Rostow, W. W. (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth: a non-communist manifesto (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press). Sakurai, N. (1993) Structural change and employment: empirical evidence for eight OECD countries, paper of the Helsinki Conference on Technology, Innovation Policy and Employment, October.

Service Sector Employment in Spain

123

Siniscalco, D. (1988) Structural change, service sector and foreign trade in Italian economy 1960± 1985. Dissertation Submitted for the Ph.D. Degree in Economics, University of Cambridge. Sraffa, P. (1960) Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press). Â Treadway, A. (1988) El empleo por sectores productivos 1964± 1986: Analisis y Homogeneizacio n de las series EPA y GTE (Madrid, FEDEA). United Nations, Commission of the European Communities (EUROSTAT), IMF, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) & World Bank (1993) System of National Accounts 1993 (Brussels-New York, EUROSTAT, IMF, OECD, UN & World Bank). van der Linden, J. & Oosterhaven, J. (1993) Intercountry EC Input-Output Relations: an income growth decomposition for 1970± 1980. Working Paper Department of Economics, University of Groningen.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful