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Brazil – GDP 1Q2014

by Eduardo Petazze
In the 1Q2014 Brazilian GDP grew by 1.92% Y/Y (+0.17% Q/Q), from +2.18% Y/Y (+0.44% Q/Q) in the 4Q2014
2014 (provisional) estimates that GDP will grow by 1.74%, from +2.49% in 2013
The IBGE released its estimate of the Brazilian GDP for 1st. quarter of 2014
Links:
Presentation – pdf, 31 pages
Full press release – pdf, 37 pages
Tables

Summary
Overview
NSA
SAAR
Chained (1995)
million $R
GVA
Y/Y
GDP
Y/Y
GVA
Q/Q
GDP
2007 Q1
203,789 5.06% 234,631 5.16%
839,792 1.93%
964,984
2007 Q2
214,483 6.25% 246,798 6.43%
850,269 1.25%
980,409
2007 Q3
218,119 5.96% 251,203 6.06%
860,246 1.17%
990,615
2007 Q4
219,553 5.97% 253,616 6.67%
873,196 1.51% 1,007,919
2008 Q1
215,900 5.94% 249,396 6.29%
888,685 1.77% 1,025,424
2008 Q2
227,493 6.07% 262,730 6.46%
902,268 1.53% 1,044,747
2008 Q3
232,203 6.46% 269,077 7.12%
916,337 1.56% 1,061,034
2008 Q4
221,164 0.73% 256,051 0.96%
879,535 -4.02% 1,016,786
2009 Q1
210,296 -2.60% 242,630 -2.71%
866,868 -1.44%
999,908
2009 Q2
222,410 -2.23% 256,425 -2.40%
881,459 1.68% 1,019,183
2009 Q3
228,830 -1.45% 265,129 -1.47%
902,817 2.42% 1,045,133
2009 Q4
232,148 4.97% 269,650 5.31%
923,397 2.28% 1,070,651
2010 Q1
228,183 8.51% 265,301 9.34%
939,195 1.71% 1,091,640
2010 Q2
240,498 8.13% 278,901 8.76%
952,884 1.46% 1,108,091
2010 Q3
243,156 6.26% 283,488 6.92%
960,348 0.78% 1,118,908
2010 Q4
243,190 4.76% 284,029 5.33%
967,609 0.76% 1,128,258
2011 Q1
236,996 3.86% 276,536 4.23%
975,173 0.78% 1,137,231
2011 Q2
247,453 2.89% 288,148 3.32%
979,549 0.45% 1,143,633
2011 Q3
247,942 1.97% 289,507 2.12%
979,853 0.03% 1,143,818
2011 Q4
246,222 1.25% 287,910 1.37%
979,897 0.00% 1,143,686
2012 Q1
238,581 0.67% 278,741 0.80%
982,094 0.22% 1,146,797
2012 Q2
248,777 0.53% 289,735 0.55%
983,747 0.17% 1,148,661
2012 Q3
250,193 0.91% 292,246 0.95%
989,252 0.56% 1,155,420
2012 Q4
250,195 1.61% 293,154 1.82%
995,908 0.67% 1,164,357
2013 Q1
242,794 1.77% 284,013 1.89%
999,378 0.35% 1,168,804
2013 Q2
257,058 3.33% 299,756 3.46% 1,016,105 1.67% 1,187,760
2013 Q3
255,631 2.17% 299,338 2.43% 1,011,237 -0.48% 1,184,196
2013 Q4
255,046 1.94% 299,534 2.18% 1,015,355 0.41% 1,189,441
2014 Q1
247,244 1.83% 289,461 1.92% 1,017,451 0.21% 1,191,404
2014 Q2
261,581 1.76% 304,871 1.71%
2014 Q3
260,645 1.96% 305,161 1.95%
2014 Q4
258,891 1.51% 303,756 1.41%
Last data
Provisional own estimate

Q/Q
2.07%
1.60%
1.04%
1.75%
1.74%
1.88%
1.56%
-4.17%
-1.66%
1.93%
2.55%
2.44%
1.96%
1.51%
0.98%
0.84%
0.80%
0.56%
0.02%
-0.01%
0.27%
0.16%
0.59%
0.77%
0.38%
1.62%
-0.30%
0.44%
0.17%

Gross data
Chained (1995) million $R
Agriculture
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Electicity, …
Residual
Services
Commerce
Transportation
Info & Comminication
Finance
Other services
Real estate
Public administration,
Residual
Residual
GVA
Taxes
Residual
GDP
Households consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Inventories change and residual
Exports
Imports
Memo: Seasonally adjusted (official data)
GVA, SAAR
Q/Q
GDP, SAAR
Q/Q
Last data
Own estimate (provisional)
Y/Y
Agriculture
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Electicity, …
Services
Commerce
Transportation
Info & Comminication
Finance
Other services
Real estate
Public administration,
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Households consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Exports
Imports
Own estimate (provisional)

2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4
17,048
22,038
15,985
12,215
17,524
22,785
16,488
12,551
55,842
60,923
63,462
62,057
56,304
60,636
63,774
62,246
2,282
2,386
2,551
2,600
2,406
2,469
2,567
2,655
33,732
37,555
39,454
37,605
33,561
37,031
39,623
37,982
12,335
13,557
13,929
13,601
12,228
13,263
13,959
13,663
6,876
7,189
7,157
7,402
7,234
7,483
7,466
7,669
618
236
370
848
875
391
160
277
171,085
175,766
176,686
180,844
174,541 178,307 179,951 182,865
28,620
30,450
31,158
31,294
29,253
31,975
32,286
32,680
10,734
11,349
11,637
11,805
11,161
11,708
12,009
12,188
2,933
3,076
3,107
3,384
3,061
3,202
3,263
3,459
27,441
27,667
27,302
29,071
28,143
28,172
28,334
29,456
39,344
40,344
40,229
41,918
39,538
40,457
40,735
41,863
23,293
23,591
23,573
23,735
23,759
24,020
24,144
24,288
37,357
37,532
37,612
37,761
38,058
38,276
38,394
38,626
1,364
1,757
2,068
1,876
1,568
498
786
305
-1,182
-1,668
-502
-69
-1,125
-146
432
1,228
242,794
257,058
255,631
255,046
247,244 261,581 260,645 258,891
40,774
42,284
43,219
43,947
41,750
43,289
44,517
44,865
445
413
488
541
467
0
0
0
284,013
299,756
299,338
299,534
289,461 304,871 305,161 303,756
190,789
191,907
195,811
200,363
195,057 194,184 199,438 201,640
53,636
56,954
56,753
62,850
55,444
58,200
58,362
64,428
56,484
60,574
62,411
59,722
55,324
59,173
63,135
60,792
-3,279
722
-4,778
-14,122
-2,987
1,261
-7,265 -15,937
30,319
36,319
37,448
38,523
31,155
36,210
36,337
35,484
43,935
46,720
48,307
47,803
44,532
44,157
44,845
42,650
999,378 1,016,105 1,011,237 1,015,355 1,017,451
0.35%
1.67%
-0.48%
0.41%
0.21%
1,168,804 1,187,760 1,184,196 1,189,441 1,191,404
0.38%
1.62%
-0.30%
0.44%
0.17%

2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4
12.99%
11.98%
0.40%
1.62%
2.79%
3.39%
3.15%
2.75%
-0.91%
3.08%
2.32%
2.12%
0.83% -0.47%
0.49%
0.31%
-6.52%
-3.53%
1.08%
-0.17%
5.45%
3.46%
0.61%
2.09%
0.13%
5.21%
2.76%
2.57%
-0.51% -1.39%
0.43%
1.00%
-1.24%
3.66%
2.04%
1.97%
-0.86% -2.17%
0.22%
0.46%
2.62%
2.13%
3.65%
3.36%
5.20%
4.08%
4.32%
3.61%
1.85%
2.56%
2.32%
1.89%
2.02%
1.45%
1.85%
1.12%
1.72%
3.63%
2.77%
3.49%
2.21%
5.01%
3.62%
4.43%
1.14%
3.63%
5.17%
2.36%
3.98%
3.16%
3.20%
3.24%
3.33%
5.47%
4.85%
8.76%
4.36%
4.12%
5.02%
2.21%
1.23%
1.81%
2.59%
0.57%
2.56%
1.82%
3.78%
1.32%
1.66%
1.83%
0.07%
-0.72%
0.49%
0.28%
1.26% -0.13%
2.43%
3.10%
2.14%
1.52%
2.00%
1.82%
2.42%
2.33%
2.13%
1.68%
2.63%
2.54%
1.88%
1.98%
2.08%
2.29%
1.77%
3.33%
2.17%
1.94%
1.83%
1.76%
1.96%
1.51%
2.59%
4.24%
3.84%
3.43%
2.39%
2.38%
3.00%
2.09%
1.89%
3.46%
2.43%
2.18%
1.92%
1.71%
1.95%
1.41%
2.49%
2.82%
2.37%
2.53%
2.24%
1.19%
1.85%
0.64%
2.40%
0.91%
2.46%
2.15%
3.37%
2.19%
2.84%
2.51%
2.18%
7.70%
6.69%
4.05%
-2.05% -2.31%
1.16%
1.79%
-5.70%
6.33%
3.19%
5.57%
2.76% -0.30% -2.97% -7.89%
7.45%
7.70%
13.69%
4.78%
1.36% -5.49% -7.17% -10.78%

Seasonally adjusted index data (1995=100)
SA indices (1995=100)
Agriculture
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Electicity, …
Services
Commerce
Transportation
Comminication
Finance
Other services
Real estate
Public administration,
GVA
Taxes
GDP
Households consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Exports
Imports

2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
165.601
175.456
185.846
181.729
187.589
194.180
187.329
186.444
193.072
142.032
139.466
140.301
140.159
140.970
143.689
143.552
143.239
142.162
201.907
198.570
195.895
199.569
192.189
189.052
197.850
198.658
199.625
128.331
123.679
126.144
125.706
128.523
129.980
129.784
129.117
128.036
157.841
154.533
155.260
154.397
156.599
159.476
158.298
157.531
153.844
170.891
173.811
172.941
175.737
175.403
177.375
179.335
181.716
184.315
166.087
167.125
168.112
169.518
170.050
171.275
171.586
172.744
173.432
163.357
163.111
164.142
164.193
166.244
168.692
168.911
170.016
169.858
160.965
160.978
161.276
164.360
164.078
166.563
167.643
168.672
170.051
268.141
269.134
272.167
279.984
276.985
283.594
285.598
304.918
288.912
197.553
197.722
192.795
201.214
200.067
200.921
198.293
202.365
204.860
157.544
158.625
160.082
163.612
160.285
161.450
160.400
162.227
161.150
165.824
166.368
167.707
168.997
169.790
171.490
171.313
171.622
173.137
152.241
153.270
153.026
153.665
155.371
155.797
157.021
157.660
158.254
159.412
159.681
160.574
161.655
162.218
164.933
164.143
164.811
165.152
183.882
184.117
185.518
188.063
189.154
191.643
193.100
194.358
194.209
162.518
162.783
163.741
165.007
165.637
168.324
167.819
168.562
168.840
170.190
171.349
173.020
174.543
175.134
175.732
177.182
178.712
178.471
149.235
153.135
151.997
153.711
153.078
154.277
155.736
157.101
158.146
179.025
175.967
173.378
175.771
182.755
188.987
185.248
182.960
179.135
281.541
263.265
267.213
273.054
269.179
279.660
277.000
286.861
277.440
281.822
282.498
264.409
286.340
301.561
303.400
301.737
300.492
304.814

Also see:
Copom maintains the Selic rate at 11.0%
Foreign sector data released - April 2014
Brazil – Proxy GDP
Brazil - Economic Outlook for 2014-2015 (outdated at the date of this document)