Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts 8 th April 2014 Lars Cordi, VP & Group Treasurer 1. Group development
2. Ambition
3. Ownership structure
4. Financial policy
5. Importance of investment grade
6. Cash is king 3 This is Carlsberg Group today No. 1 in Northern & Eastern Europe and fourth largest brewer in the world 500 different beer brands 40,000 employees on three continents 36,000,000,000 bottles of beer sold in 2013 150 Markets around the world Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 4 The Carlsberg Group has undergone big changes in recent years 1990 OPERATIONS IN Denmark, UK and Malawi. Minority ownerships in Finland, Italy and Malaysia
Carlsberg is an international beer brand but mainly through export and licensed brewing MALAWI + 50% ownership 0-50% ownership Joint ventures Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 MALAWI 5 The journey to becoming an international company begins few leading positions globally ACQUISITIONS Sweden, Finland, Italy, Portugal, Lithuania, Poland, Croatia, Turkey, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Vietnam
1999 + 50% ownership 0-50% ownership Joint ventures Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 MALAWI 6 Merger with Orkla (Norway) and joint venture in BBH ACQUISITIONS Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Poland, Turkey JOINT VENTURES BBH (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Baltic countries) is a joint venture between Carlsberg Breweries (owned by Carlsberg and Orkla) and UK brewer Scottish & Newcastle 2001 + 50% ownership 0-50% ownership Joint ventures Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 7 Further acquisitions in Europe and Asia and increased shareholdings in BBH through buy-out of Orklas shares ACQUISITIONS Norway, Germany, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Nepal, Western China, Laos, South Korea, Malawi
JOINT VENTURES BBH (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Baltic countries) is now a joint venture between Carlsberg Breweries and UK brewer Scottish & Newcastle 2004 MALAWI + 50% ownership 0-50% ownership Joint ventures Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 8 Acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle gives majority ownership of BBH, France, Greece and more ACQUISITIONS BBH (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Baltic countries), France, Greece, India, Western China DIVESTMENTS Turkey, South Korea The biggest acquisition by a Scandinavian company 2008 MALAWI + 50% ownership 0-50% ownership Joint ventures Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 9 Carlsberg Group today the worlds fourth largest international brewer ACQUISITIONS Increased shareholding in Chongqing Brewery Company in China to 60%
2013 MALAWI + 50% ownership 0-50% ownership Joint ventures Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 Our three regions at a glance Western Europe % of total beer volume % of EBIT Eastern Europe Asia 2013 2013 Group Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 10 41 35 24 47 36 17 (2009: 43%) (2009: 44%) (2009: 13%) (2009: 41%) (2009: 52%) (2009: 7%) 1. Group development
2. Ambition
3. Ownership structure
4. Financial policy
5. Importance of investment grade
6. Cash is king 12 We want to be a significant player in the markets where we choose to compete We want to balance our presence in both mature and growth markets Most of the western world is fully consolidated and major local player are owned by the big four international brewers Worlds top-4 brewers Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 1. Group development
2. Ambition
3. Ownership structure
4. Financial policy
5. Importance of investment grade
6. Cash is king Group ownership structure 14 Carlsberg Foundation Free float Carlsberg A/S Listed on Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen Carlsberg Breweries A/S Operating companies 30% of capital 75% of votes 70% of capital 25% of votes 100% 20% 34% 20% 26% Denmark USA UK Other Note: Excluding The Carlsberg Foundation Geographical break-down of shareholders Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 Carlsberg Foundation Charter 15 + New dividend policy Min. 25% of retained earnings to be phased in over two years 1970 2007 51% of capital 2013 51% of votes 25% of capital 51% of votes No condition on capital Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 1. Group development
2. Ambition
3. Ownership structure
4. Financial policy
5. Importance of investment grade
6. Cash is king Financial policy Centralized funding and risk management at the level of Carlsberg Breweries A/S Diversified sources of funding and smooth maturity profile Risk perception is to actively manage exposures Ample capital resources available at all times Committed to retaining investment grade credit rating 17 Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 Funding structure 18 Carlsberg A/S Listed on Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen Carlsberg Breweries A/S Operating companies 72% 18% 4% 5% 1% Bonds Non-current bank borrowing Mortgages Current bank borrowings Other, current and non-current Funding sources Conservative funding policy
Main funding sources are bonds and long-term bank facilities
A new EUR 2,510m multi- currency facility due February 2019 with options to extend additional 2 years was signed December 2013
5 bonds issued under 5bn EMTN program Centralized funding at the level of Carlsberg Breweries A/S Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 Commitment to Investment Grade 19 Rated by Fitch and Moodys since January 2006
Long Term Issuer Rating: BBB Outlook: Stable Date: 21-02-2011 (upgrade from BBB-, stable outlook) Carlsberg Breweries A/S' (CB) ratings reflect its leading positions in core markets, moderate geographical diversification and increasing focus on emerging countries. The ratings are supported by the resilience of CBs operating profit and cash flow generation to a sequence of challenges encountered in its core Russian and western European markets.
Rating: Baa2 Outlook: Stable Date: 23-02-2011 (upgrade from Baa3, stable outlook) Carlsberg Breweries' Baa2 long-term issuer rating is underpinned by the group's (1) scale as one of the world's largest brewers, with leading positions in some of its key European markets, including Russia; (2) a degree of geographic diversification ; and (3) solid cash flow generation supporting net debt reduction, albeit at a slower pace given ongoing challenging trading conditions in the European beer sector. Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 1. Group development
2. Ambition
3. Ownership structure
4. Financial policy
5. Importance of investment grade
6. Cash is king Investment grade issuers have priority access to financial markets during volatile times 21 The Collapse of Lehman Brother The Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe Peripheral European Debt Concerns Source: Dealogic, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Over all supply decreases as investors becomes more picky in volatile times
The IG market is by far more resilient, is open longer and never totally shuts down even when volatility strike whereas the red Sub-IG (includes Non-rated) areas vanishes or significantly decrease during the same periods
IG corporates will have greater access to bigger pools of liquidity at all times, but more specifically (and perhaps importantly) when liquidity freeze up
0 50 100 150 200 250 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Sub-IG Corporate EUR IG Corporate EUR 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 VIX Index (RHS) Quarterly Issuance Volumes in Relation to the VIX Volatility Index since 2008 Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 Investment grade issuers benefit from more stable funding costs during volatile times Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 22 Enron Default , Dotcom Bubble and 9/11 attack Lehman Brother collapse and debt crisis Peripheral European Debt Concerns 21% Source: Merrill Lynch Index, BNP Parisbas 0 5 10 15 20 25 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 European BBB index European HY BB index The costs differential between European BBB and BB High Yield Corporates since 1999
The historical cost of funding between BBB and BB rated issuers shows that the BBB cost is much less volatile compared to BB
Even though the funding cost rise for BBB corporates at distressed times, it remains low compared to the significant spikes BB corporates experience
On a note separate to cost, there is of course other benefits of staying IG such as less covenants, longer maturities available etc. 1. Group development
2. Ambition
3. Ownership structure
4. Financial policy
5. Importance of investment grade
6. Cash is king Strong focus on working capital management to improve financial flexibility 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ATWC/net revenue 24 Presentation for The Danish Society of Financial Analysts - 8th April 2014 Group wide initiative to reduce average trade working capital Dedicated work streams and initiatives for inventories, accounts payable and accounts receivables