O

pen Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 2 June 2014

Political and security risk updates

Africa: Protesters in Central African Republic deand interi go!ernent"s

resignation#

Americas: $ncubent president pus%ed into tig%t runoff !ote in Colobia"s

presidential election#

Asia and Pacific: &%e 't%reat" of C%ina and role of Japan %ig%lig%ted at t%is year"s

(%angri)*a +ialogue#

Europe: ,e- .krainian president confired as rebel attacks in east of country

intensify#

Middle East: &aliban suicide bober targets inibus used by Afg%an ilitary#

Polar regions: /reenpeace acti!ists board ,or-egian and Russian drilling rigs

bound for t%e Arctic#

Africa

Protesters in Central African Republic demand interim goernment!s

resignation

On 00 1ay2 peacekeeping forces in t%e Central African Republic 3CAR4 fired upon

protesters in t%e capital2 Bangui2 as t%ousands gat%ered to deand t%e interi

go!ernent"s resignation and t%e -it%dra-al of Burundian peacekeepers fro t%e

country# A Burundian contingent of t%e African .nion peacekeeping ission 31$(CA4

responded to alleged gunfire fro ared deonstrators outside its base near t%e

., %ead5uarters in Bangui2 -%ere t%e bulk of t%e protests took place# &%e

confrontation resulted in t-o fatalities and se!eral protesters -ere in6ured# $t

follo-ed a !iolent clas% bet-een protestors and 1$(CA forces on 27 1ay2 -%ic%

resulted in se!eral ci!ilians being in6ured# &%e aut%orities %a!e set up c%eckpoints

t%roug%out t%e capital in response to t%e gro-ing ci!il unrest#

&%e !iolence in CAR began on 10 +eceber 2012 follo-ing t%e alleged !iolation of

peace agreeents by t%e 8ran9ois Bo:i:; go!ernent and a coup d<;tat by

predoinantly 1usli (;l;ka forces2 led by 1ic%el +6otodia# Prolonged !iolent

confrontation bet-een (;l;ka and ared C%ristian anti)Balaka groups %as since

caused t%ousands of casualties and t%e displaceent of o!er a illion ci!ilians#

Relief organisations %a!e -arned t%at continued !iolent unrest is causing significant

issues in t%e deli!ery of %uanitarian aid#

Open Briefing | "

=it% t%e resignation of +6otodia in January 20142 CAR"s ne-ly incubent interi president2 Cat%erine

(aba Pan:a2 is e>periencing increasing political pressure follo-ing t%e !iolent outcoe of t%e protests

on 00 1ay# +espite attepts to establis% easures aied at facilitating a national reconciliation dialogue2

!iolence is %ig%ly likely to continue t%roug%out CAR in t%e coing ont%s#

8urt%erore2 as crucial border

supply routes bet-een Caeroon and C%ad %a!e been blocked due to t%e fre5uent clas%es2 African .nion

forces are also e>periencing rene-ed pressure fro t%e international counity to respond effecti!ely

and control t%e unstable situation in CAR# =it% a gro-ing resentent to-ards 1$(CA forces becoing

increasingly salient2 !iolence is likely to intensify s%ould t%e interi go!ernent fail to capitulate to

deands for t%eir resignation#

#ther deelopments

$igerian President %oodluck &onathan has declared 'total war! against the terrorist group (oko

)aram* On 27 1ay2 Jonat%an aut%orised security forces to use any eans necessary to ensure success

against terroris2 blaing t%e Boko ?ara insurgency on e>treist foreign eleents# Jonat%an"s

stateent parallels a siilar coitent by $driss +;by2 president of neig%bouring C%ad2 at a =est

African suit in Paris in id)1ay# ,ort%east ,igeria2 under a state of eergency since 1ay 20102

continues to be plagued by !iolence# &%e ,igerian ilitary announced on 2@ 1ay t%at it %ad located t%e

sc%oolgirls abducted by Boko ?ara on 14 April2 but -ould not use force to free t%e due to t%e %ig%

risks associated -it% a rescue operation#

The leader of Malawi!s +emocratic Progressie Party, Peter Mutharika, has been declared the winner

of the disputed presidential election* $ncubent President Joyce Banda is reported to %a!e accepted

t%e result2 despite declaring earlier t%is -eek t%at t%e !ote -as in!alid# &%e Auropean .nion Alection

Obser!ation 1ission 3A. AO14 %as declared t%at t%e elections -ere %eld in a 'free2 fair and credible"

anner despite reports of irregularities# Anoalies -ere disco!ered in do:ens of t%e !otes fro ore

t%an 42000 polling stations# &%e ain opposition2 t%e 1ala-i Congress Party2 %ad soug%t a court ruling for

a recount of t%e !otes2 but t%e !ictorious +eocratic Progressi!e Party resisted t%e proposal of a ont%)
long e>tension to allo- a recount to take place#

-ibya!s )igh $ational Elections Commission .)$EC/ has announced that parliamentary elections will

be held on "0 &une, follo-ing t%e acceptance of t%e proposed dated by t%e /eneral ,ational Congress

3/,C4# &%e /,C2 elected in July 2012 in *ibya"s first free elections2 %as faced c%allenges to its legitiacy

after unilaterally prolonging its andate until +eceber# /eneral B%alifa ?aftar2 leader of t%e ilitia

group t%e *ibyan ,ational Ary2 attacked t%e parliaent in &ripoli on 1C 1ay# ?aftar %as deand a po-er

transfer2 pledging a capaign against %ardline ilitia groups across t%e country# 8oreign states %a!e

urged t%eir citi:ens to lea!e *ibya aid t%e gro-ing instability#

#n the radar

China is to send a peacekeeping force of 102 soldiers to 3outh 3udan to reinforce t%e .,

ission t%ere#

The #u4okoral 5arim moement plan to stage an opposition protest in +akar, capital of

3enegal, on 1C June#

Presidential elections to be held in Mauritania, on 21 June#

Open Briefing | 6

Aericas

7ncumbent president pushed into tight runoff ote in Colombia!s presidential election

&%e results of t%e 2C 1ay Colobian presidential election represent a blo- for current President Juan

1anuel (antos# $n contrast to t%e initial forecasts taken fro ost opinion polls2 Dscar $!En Fuluaga2 t%e

%andpicked candidate of forer President Gl!aro .ribe2 took t%e lead in t%e first round of t%e country"s

elections2 securing 27H of t%e !ote2 against 2IH for (antos# &%e election capaign re!ol!ed around t%e

future of t%e ongoing peace talks -it% t%e Re!olutionary Ared 8orces of Colobia 38ARC4# O!er t%e past

17 ont%s2 (antos"s adinistration %as been negotiating in Cuba"s capital2 ?a!ana2 on a peace settleent

-it% t%e guerrilla group# ?o-e!er2 o-ing to t%e sluggis% pace of t%e talks2 any !oters are sceptical about

-%et%er a final settleent -ill e!entually be reac%ed2 and %a!e criticised t%e go!ernent for attepting

to e>ploit t%e 8ARC issue to its electoral ad!antage# &%e election race -as arred by allegations of

corruption and general political apat%y2 and turnout -as only 40H# &%e second round of t%e election is to

take place on 1C June#

8ollo-ing publication of t%e first)round results2 (antos said t%at %e took t%e !ote as a essage t%at %is

go!ernent %as failed to present t%e benefits of t%e negotiated peace deal#

&%e issue of t%e peace talks

appears to %a!e o!ers%ado-ed t%e election capaign despite t%e repeated suggestion fro opinion polls

t%at socioeconoic concerns far outstripped t%e 8ARC issue in t%e eyes of t%e Colobian electorate# &%e

8ARC t%reat %as %istorically been used to co)opt social o!eents t%at press for social 6ustice2 as notably

deonstrated by t%e adoption of a %ardline stance by t%e go!ernent during t%e sall)farer protests in

2010# By separating social issues fro t%e peace settleent2 (antos %as failed to gain t%e support of t%e

Colobian people2 gi!en t%at a large s%are of t%e population %a!e been left out by t%e country"s recent

econoic boo#

$n t%e current conte>t2 t%e support of saller parties %as becoe of paraount iportance for t%e t-o

candidates2 as t%ree ot%er parties %a!e gat%ered alost 40H of t%e !ote bet-een t%e# 8irstly2 t%e rig%t)
-ing Conser!ati!e Party of 1arta *ucia Raire: cae second -it% 1C#CH2 and on 2J 1ay Fuluaga fored

an alliance -it% Raire:# $n e>c%ange2 .ribe"s candidate %as agreed to soften %is stance to-ards 8ARC by

aintaining t%e ongoing peace talks if strict conditions 3suc% as a unilateral ceasefire4 are et# (econdly2

t%e left)-ing Alternati!e +eocratic Pole of Clara *ope: cae t%ird -it% 1C#2H# $t %as not yet declared its

support for any candidate2 but its supporters are likely to fa!our (antos# &%irdly2 t%e /reen Party of

Anri5ue PeKalosa cae fourt% -it% J#0H# /reen Party supporters reain abi!alent in t%eir preference

to-ards eit%er of t%e t-o candidates# As a result2 in spite of recei!ing t%e lo-est nuber of !otes2 t%e

support of t%e /reen Party ig%t pro!e deterinant in t%e run)off election#

#ther deelopments

3ecurity forces hae responded seerely to a strike by the indigenous population in (ra8il!s capital,

(rasilia* On 2@ 1ay2 an indigenous group of about a t%ousand people staged a protest ne>t to Brasilia"s

stadiu# $t -as %ars%ly suppressed by t%e @00 police officers t%at secured t%e arena# 1any social

o!eents %a!e taken ad!antage of t%e increased edia co!erage around t%e fort%coing =orld Cup to

!oice t%eir grie!ances# Bra:il"s indigenous population criticises t%e go!ernent for t%e alleged unfair

appropriation of t%eir land by agricultural congloerates# &%e 2014 =orld Cup in Bra:il is to start on 12

June and end on 10 July# A protest arc% is planned in Rio de Janeiro on 10 June#

Open Briefing | 9

-ast week, the Argentine 4udiciary summoned :ice;President Amado (oudou to testify in the

Ciccone corruption case* ?e is suspected of abuse of po-er -%ile ser!ing as Aconoic 1inister# &%e

%earing is to take place on 1C July# O!er recent years2 Boudou"s popularity %as fallen s%arply because of

alleged corruption scandalsL %o-e!er2 as a close ally to President Cristina 8ernEnde: de Birc%ner2 %e %as

anaged to reain in key positions -it%in t%e adinistration#

The interention of :ene8uelan security forces tasked with dislodging students from an occupied

uniersity in 3an Crist<bal resulted in iolent clashes on "1 May* $t -as in t%e city of (an CristMbal t%at

t%e conflict bet-een t%e opposition and t%e go!ernent first turned !iolent last 8ebruary# (ince t%en2 t%e

adinistration of ,icolEs 1aduro %as constantly accused t%e opposition of attepting to facilitate a coup

d’état# O!er t%e past -eek2 t%e go!ernent %as launc%ed a legal suit against specific ebers of t%e

opposition on t%e grounds of t%eir alleged in!ol!eent in a coup plot against t%e regie* Protests are

likely to intensify in Nene:uela"s ain cities aid t%e ongoing political crisis#

#n the radar

=ifth (R7C3 summit to take place in =ortale8a, (ra8il, on 1C July#

1> &une marks the ">;year anniersary of the killing of four ?3 Marines security personnel

assigned to the ?3 embassy and nine 3aladorean ciilians -%en ebers of t%e 8arabundo

1arti ,ational *iberation 8ront fired upon a restaurant in (an (al!ador#

Asia and Pacific

The 'threat! of China and role of &apan highlighted at this year!s 3hangri;-a +ialogue

&%is year"s (%angri)*a +ialogue2 also kno-n as t%e Asia (ecurity (uit2 -as %eld in (ingapore fro 00

1ay to 1 June# Japan"s Prie 1inster (%in:o Abe deli!ered t%e keynote address at t%e talks# $n %is

presentation2 %e pus%ed for an increased role for Japan in establis%ing regional stability# .( (ecretary of

+efence C%uck ?agel stated t%at C%inese be%a!iour in t%e (out% C%ina (ea is a significant destabilising

force in t%e region# ?agel claied t%at C%ina ignores international nors and rules and fre5uently uses

intiidation and t%reats of force to assert territorial clais# ?e furt%er indicated t%at t%e .nited (tates

supported an increased role for Japan in t%e region#

Just prior to t%e opening of t%e suit2 t%e c%air of C%ina"s ,ational People"s Congress"s 8oreign Affairs

Coittee2 8u Oing2 stated t%at Abe -as propagating t%e idea t%at C%ina posed a a6or t%reat to Japan#

(%e reiterated t%at t%is 'yt%" -as being used as a prete>t for t%e e>pansion of Japan"s ilitary# Recently2

Abe %as o!ed to redefine a section of Japan"s constitution t%at restricts engageent in ilitary

operations o!erseas# $n %is keynote address2 Abe noted t%at Japan -is%ed to proacti!ely 'contribute to

peace" in t%e region# At t%e sae tie2 ?agel"s stateents are likely oti!ated by t%e recent tensions t%at

%a!e pereated C%ina"s interactions -it% Nietna2 Japan and t%e P%ilippines# $n late April2 .( President

Barack Obaa strengt%ened Aerica"s security coitent to Japan and e>panded its ilitary

agreeents -it% t%e P%ilippines#

Open Briefing | 0

Obaa"s o!es illustrated t%e .( attitude to-ards C%ina2 urging leaders in Bei6ing to take a ore

responsible and less pro!ocati!e role in Asian regional security# =%ile t%e .nited (tates reinforces its

relations%ip -it% Japan as a eans to assert its influence in t%e region2 C%ina is pursuing a different !ision

of Asian security# (pecifically2 t%e C%inese leaders%ip is focussing on t%e role of t%e Conference on

$nteraction and Confidence)Building 1easures in Asia 3C$CA4 as t%e c%ief ec%anis for ultilateral

security engageent# ?o-e!er2 Japan is not a eber of t%e C$CA and2 as Abe"s recent actions %a!e

%ig%lig%ted2 it seeks to play a ore acti!e role in t%e region"s security# *ooking for-ard2 C%ina is unlikely to

accept an Asian security order doinated by Japan2 yet t%e scale of t%e strategic alliance bet-een Japan

and t%e .nited (tates akes it unlikely t%at t%e C$CA -ill becoe t%e c%ief ec%anis for stability# As

C%ina"s ilitary po-er gro-s2 its international disputes are also likely rise in agnitude2 as t%e recent

deadly anti)C%inese riots in Nietna suggest#

#ther deelopments

$orth 5orea is to inestigate the disappearance of &apanese citi8ens abducted by $orth 5orean

citi8ens* On 27 1ay in (tock%ol2 (-eden2 negotiators fro t%e t-o countries announced t%at in

e>c%ange for opening an in!estigation into t%e disappearance of se!eral Japanese citi:ens during t%e Cold

=ar2 &okyo -ould begin easing sanctions on ,ort% Borea# Japan currently aintains a set of sanctions on

,ort% Borea for its pre!ious inaction on t%is issue# &%ese include bans on tra!el to ,ort% Borea2 t%e

transfer of oney bet-een t%e t-o states2 and t%e use of Japanese ports by ,ort% Borean s%ips# $n 20022

,ort% Borea aditted t%at it %ad kidnapped t%e issing Japanese citi:ens# At t%at tie2 fi!e of t%e

abducted Japanese nationals -ere returned ali!e# &%e -%ereabouts of se!eral ot%ers reain unkno-n# $n

200J2 Japan %ad indicated t%at it -ould reopen t%e in!estigation2 but did not actually do so#

#n "@ May, anti;terrorism police in Ain4iang Proince, China, claimed to hae thwarted a planned

terrorist attack when they raided two illegal bomb;making factories* *ocal edia reported t%at 1#J

tonnes of e>plosi!e aterials -ere confiscated and fi!e suspects -ere taken into custody for allegedly

planning to detonate e>plosi!es in a public area in ?otan Prefecture2 Pin6iang# An official go!ernent

report claied t%at t%e foiled plan -as odelled on t%e arket bobing in Pin6iang t%at left ore t%an

00 dead on 22 1ay# &%at incident -as t%e ost recent in a string of attacks reportedly carried out by anti)
go!ernent acti!ists fro Pin6iang# &%e raid of 2@ 1ay follo-ed anot%er a6or breakt%roug% on 2C 1ay

-%en police reportedly captured 200 suspects fro ore t%an 20 e>treist organisations#

#n 61 May, representaties from the ?3 and Australian armies stated that they hae suspended

interaction with Thailand!s military following the coup that began on "" May* Coup leader /eneral

Prayut% C%an)oc%a indicated t%at artial la- -as necessary to end political deonstrations and restore

stability to t%e country# ?e estiated t%at elections and necessary refors -ould likely take a year or

ore# &%e last tie t%e &%ai ilitary instituted a coup -as in 200I2 to end t%e rule of t%en Prie 1inster

&%aksin (%ina-atra2 t%e brot%er of recently ousted Prie 1inster Oingluck (%ina-atra# Australian 8oreign

1inister Julie Bis%op announced t%e postponeent of t%ree planned ilitary e>ercises# &%e .nited (tates

%ad cancelled a 6oint ilitary e>ercise on 2C 1ay2 and .( (ecretary of +efence C%uck ?agel condened

t%e coup as a retreat fro deocracy#

Open Briefing | B

#n the radar

The Pakistani goernment will this week commence their inestigation of the police officers

that failed to interene at the public stoning of a woman in -ahore*

China will formally try fie indiiduals in Ain4iang -%o are accused of orc%estrating t%e October

2010 'terrorist attack" at &iananen (5uare#

The ?3 3enate and )ouse of Representaties will begin a debate on increasing financial

sanctions on $orth 5orea*

The #pposition Pakistan Tehreek;e;7nsaf party plan to stage a demonstration at &innah

cricket stadium in 3ialkot, Pun4ab proince, on @ June#

7ncreased security measures should be eCpected in China!s capital, (ei4ing, surrounding 9

&une, -%ic% arks t%e anni!ersary of t%e &iananen (5uare assacre in 17J7#

Aurope

$ew ?krainian president confirmed as rebel attacks in east of country intensify

On 27 1ay2 Petro Poros%enko -as confired as t%e ne- .krainian president after -inning C4#@H of t%e

!ote# $n one of %is first addresses as president2 Poros%enko !o-ed to tackle t%e 'bandits" in eastern

.kraine and to reopen dialogue -it% Russia o!er t%e escalating crisis# Poros%enko"s first -eek as president

-as arked -it% escalating fig%ting bet-een .krainian ilitary forces and pro)Russian rebels# On 2I 1ay2

rebels sei:ed four international onitors fro t%e Organisation for (ecurity and Co)operation in Aurope

3O(CA4# &%e onitors -ere captured at a c%eckpoint near +onetsk -%ilst on a routine ission# A second

tea of onitors -as detained on 00 1ay in t%e to-n of (e!erodonetsk in eastern .kraine# On 2@ 1ay2

t%e Bie! go!ernent announced t%at t%e anti)terror operation against separatists -ould continue under

t%e ne- presidency# Aid gro-ing speculation t%at t%e ary -as planning an attack on (lo!yansk2

t%ousands of ci!ilians fled t%e city on 00 1ay2 -%ile rebels fortified t%eir control of t%e city"s pro!incial

go!ernent and 22000 pro)Russian supporters gat%ered in t%e central s5uare on 01 1ay#

Ale>ander Borodai2 t%e separatist leader of t%e self)proclaied +onetsk People<s Republic2 claied t%at at

least C0 pro)Russian acti!ists 3including 00 Russian nationals4 -ere killed during an operation by

separatists to sei:e +onetsk airport on 2I 1ay# *ocal edia reported t%at t%e airport -as attacked in

order to pre!ent t%e ne- president fro !isiting t%e city2 after t%e billionaire businessan announced

t%at %is first trip as president -ould be to eastern .kraine# On 27 1ay2 pro)Russian rebels s%ot do-n a

ilitary 1i)J %elicopter in (lo!yansk2 killing si> ,ational /uard soldiers and si> ebers of t%e special

forces of t%e interior# &%e .krainian ilitary claied t%at t%e rebels %ad used a Russian)ade anti)issile

syste to attack t%e %elicopter# &%ese t-o latest attacks suggest t%at at least soe of t%e separatist

forces are trained and -ell)ared cobatants rat%er t%an local ilitiaen# As suc%2 .( (ecretary of (tate

Jo%n Berry %as !oiced =estern concerns o!er t%e identities of t%e rebels2 claiing t%at t%ere -as e!idence

of 'personnel fro C%ec%nya trained in Russia" crossing in to .kraine#

Open Briefing | @

Bie! soug%t to repair t%e tense relations%ip -it% 1osco- -it% t%e announceent on 00 1ay t%at .kraine

%ad paid part of its gas debt to Russia# 8ollo-ing talks in Berlin2 reports suggested t%at .kraine %ad paid

t%e Russian energy copany /a:pro Q@JI illion of t%e total Q0#C billion debt# $n early 1ay2 Russian

President Nladiir Putin -arned t%at fro 1 June .kraine -ould %a!e to pay for its gas in ad!ance s%ould

t%e debt not be paidL %o-e!er2 .kraine %ad refused to pay t%e Russian energy supplier in protest at

/a:pro"s decision to increase gas prices# 1osco- recognised t%e election results last -eek and

announced t%at t%e Brelin -ould be engaging in dialogue -it% Poros%enko and %is go!ernent#

?o-e!er2 despite t%ese ore positi!e engageents bet-een Bie! and 1osco-2 it is unlikely t%at a

significant dialogue -ill occur unless t%e ne-ly appointed .krainian go!ernent ceases anti)terror

operations in eastern .kraine2 -%ic% represent a a6or obstacle in t%e searc% for a political solution to t%e

crisis#

#ther deelopments

Protesters rioted for four consecutie nights from "B to 62 May in (arcelona, 3pain, after the City

)all ordered the eiction of sDuatters from the Cans :iens warehouse in 3ants district* &%e transport

aut%ority %ad abandoned t%e building in 177@ and t%e site %ad becoe a akes%ift social centre for t%e

last 1@ years# As security forces attepted to clear t%e site2 !iolence erupted -it% rioters t%ro-ing stones2

barricading streets2 sas%ing s%op -indo-s and setting fire to garbage containers and a tele!ision !an#

Police responded -it% %ig%)pitc%ed %orns and fired foa bullets to disperse t%e cro-ds# &%ey arrested I1

people during t%e four)day riot# City officials claied t%e site -as to be rede!eloped into a parkL %o-e!er2

after t%e four days of protests2 City ?all announced t%at plans for t%e deolition %ad been %alted and

discussions about t%e future of t%e site -ould be opened# &%e !iolent protests %ig%lig%t t%e fact t%at2

despite t%e country"s recent econoic reco!ery2 social tensions reain %ig% and uneployent reains a

-idespread proble#

Russia sought to further integrate its ties with former 3oiet republics last week* Russian President

Nladiir Putin et t%e Ba:ak% and Belarusian presidents in Astana2 Ba:ak%stan2 -%ere t%e presidents

initiated t%e foration of t%e Aurasian Aconoic .nion# &%e union is set to launc% on 1 June 201C2 and -ill

gi!e citi:ens of eber states e5ual eployent and education opportunities in t%e t%ree countries# &%e

presidents reported t%at t%e deal also included collaborati!e policies in t%e energy2 tec%nology2 industry2

agriculture and transport sectors# &%e Ba:ak% 8irst +eputy Prie 1inister Bakyt:%an (agintaye! infored

reporters t%at t%e introduction of a single currency %ad not been discussed#

Putin %as long %oped to for

an econoic bloc to counterbalance t%e political and econoic po-ers of t%e Auropean .nion and t%e

.nited (tates# Russia"s intent to bolster ties -it% forer (o!iet republics %as raised concerns in =estern

countries# $n 1arc% 20142 t%e forer .( (ecretary of (tate ?ilary Clinton accused Putin of seeking to

re!i!e t%e (o!iet .nion# Putin %as denied t%ese clais2 but during t%e eeting on 27 1ay2 t%e Russian

president claied t%at ot%er forer (o!iet republics -ere eager to 6oin t%e union2 t%oug% only Arenia"s

potential ebers%ip -as actually debated#

Open Briefing | 1

#n 61 May, protesters marked the one;year anniersary of the anti;goernment demonstrations that

hae engulfed Turkey for the past year* Prie 1inister Recep &ayyip ArdoRan urged young &urks to

ignore t%e calls to ark t%e anni!ersary of t%e &aksi (5uare protests# &%e &urkis% police organised a

%ea!y presence on t%e street2 -it% 2C2000 police officers and C0 anti)riot -ater cannons deployed in

$stanbul2 -%ile aut%orities blocked access to &aksi (5uare# ?o-e!er2 %undreds of deonstrators flooded

t%e streets of $stanbul2 as -ell as se!eral ot%er cities2 including Ankara# *ocal edia reported t%at police

%ad used tear gas on protesters in $stanbul and %ad arrested do:ens of protesters# &%e ass o!eent of

protests -as launc%ed last year after a %ea!y)%anded crackdo-n of a deonstration against plans to

rede!elop /e:i Park in $stanbul# An estiated 0#C illion of &urkey"s population of J0 illion %a!e

participated in nearly C2000 protests across t%e country# Ale!en people %a!e been killed during t%e

protests and ore t%an J2000 %a!e been in6ured#

#n the radar

A meeting of the E?!s foreign affairs committee will debate the presidential elections in

?kraine and Egypt on 4 June#

The %@ summit will be held in (russels, (elgium, on 4)C June#

?3 President (arack #bama will isit Europe on ";B &une, and is due to eet t%e ne- .krainian

President Petro Poros%enko in Poland on 4 June#

Elections will be held in 5osoo on J June#

Eorld leaders will gather in $ormandy, =rance, to mark the @2th anniersary of the +;+ay

landings on I June#

1iddle Aast

Taliban suicide bomber targets minibus used by Afghan military

A suicide bober targeted a inibus used by t%e Afg%an ilitary on 2I 1ay# &%e bober dro!e up

alongside t%e !e%icle on a otorcycle before detonating t%e e>plosi!es2 killing at least t-o people and

in6uring t-o ot%ers# &%e &aliban claied responsibility for t%e attack in eastern Babul# Alse-%ere in t%e

country2 insurgents attacked a .( consular !e%icle carrying diploats on 2J 1ay# &%e con!oy -as

tra!elling t%roug% ?erat pro!ince -%en it -as attacked -it% sall ars fire and rocket propelled

grenades# &-o Aericans -ere in6ured in t%e attack and t%e insurgents subse5uently fled on a otorcycle#

&%e attacks cae in t%e sae -eek t%at President Barack Obaa announced =as%ington"s post)2014

operation in Afg%anistan# Obaa announced on 2@ 1ay t%at 72J00 .( troops -ould reain in Afg%anistan

follo-ing t%e cessation of cobat issions at t%e end of t%is year# &%at nuber -ould be gradually

reduced to %alf at t%e end of 201C2 -it% only a fe- %undred troops reaining by t%e end of 201I# By 201I2

t%e last year of Obaa"s presidency2 t%e reaining .( ilitary presence in Afg%anistan -ill be tasked -it%

guarding t%e .( ebassy2 training t%e Afg%an ilitary and supporting counter)terroris efforts# &%e final

-it%dra-al of .( troops in 201I -ill bring an end to t%e .nited (tates" longest -ar2 -%ic% began in

October 2001# ?o-e!er2 t%e announceent also re!erses assertions gi!en in 2010 t%at t%e .nited (tates

-ould copletely -it%dra- fro Afg%anistan in 2014#

Open Briefing | >

&%e .nited (tates" presence in Afg%anistan after 2014 is dependent upon Afg%anistan"s ne>t leader

signing a bilateral security accord2 -%ic% -ill likely be signed in August# Currently2 it appears t%at t%e .(

-ar in Afg%anistan -ill officially be o!er by 201@2 a year after Obaa lea!es office# &%e continued

presence of ilitant acti!ity and persistence of t%e &aliban in Afg%anistan is a concern in t%e run)up to t%e

second round of !oting in t%e presidential elections# &%is also coincides -it% t%e suer fig%ting season#

Attacks are likely to increase in fre5uency in t%e coing -eeks# Polling stations2 ilitary personnel and

foreign nationals are likely targets for &aliban operations#

#ther deelopments

=ighters from the 7slamic 3tate of 7raD and the -eant .737-/ hae attacked a 5urdish illage in

northern 3yria, close to the Turkish border, killing 10 people* Aong t%e dead -ere se!en c%ildren# &%e

attack took place on 27 1ay2 close to t%e to-n of Ras al)Ain in t%e Al)?asaka% /o!ernorate2 populated by

a (yrian Burdis% inority# (yrian Burds %a!e a!oided t%e anti)Assad insurgency for fear t%at any

autonoous aspirations -ill be ignored in t%e future# &%e $($* %as been engaged in conflict -it% (yrian

Burds and ot%er rebel groups in t%e nort% of t%e country#

=ormer military chief Abdel =attah al;3isi claimed a landslide ictory as Egyptian!s oted in the

presidential election on "> May* Aarly indications s%o- t%at al)(isi claied 70#0H of !otes cast2 -it% %is

only ri!al gaining 0 per cent# ?o-e!er2 t%e turnout of 4IH -as uc% less t%an t%e J0H t%at al)(isi %ad

called for in t%e -eeks leading up to t%e election# &%e turnout -as also lo-er t%an t%e C2H t%at %ad

elected $slaist leader 1o%aed 1orsi2 t%e an -%o al)(isi reo!ed fro po-er last year# &%e lo-

turnout -ill test t%e ne- president"s andate to tackle t%e econoy and t%e $slaist insurgency in (inai#

A suicide bomber blew himself up at a mosDue in central (aghdad, 7raD, on "@ May* At least 17 people

-ere killed at t%e entrance to a (%ia os5ue in (%or6a district2 and a furt%er 2I people -ere in6ured#

Roadside bobs in Bag%dad"s (adr City and +ura districts also killed t-o people# (ectarian !iolence in $ra5

%as reac%ed le!els not seen since 200J# &%e (%ia)led go!ernent %as struggled to suppress t%e rise of $($*

and al)Saeda)affiliated fig%ters in Anbar pro!ince#

#n the radar

3yrian presidential election is scheduled to take place on 0 June#

The second round of the Afghan presidential election is due to be held on 14 June#

A Palestinian unity goernment will likely be announced t%is -eek#

#fficial polling figures from Egypt!s presidential election will be released t%is -eek#

The neCt round of nuclear talks between the P0F1 and 7ran are due to take place in Nienna2

Austria2 on 1I)20 June#

Open Briefing | 12

Polar Regions

%reenpeace actiists board $orwegian and Russian drilling rigs bound for the Arctic

/reenpeace acti!ists boarded t%e &ransocean (pitsbergen drilling rig currently rented by ,or-egian

energy a6or (tatoil in t%e Barents (ea on 2@ 1ay# &%e rig -as in transit to a planned drilling site in t%e

?oop area of t%e Barents (ea2 -%ere (tatoil plans to drill t%e -orld"s nort%ernost oil -ell 3at t%e latitude

of @4 degrees4# *ater on t%e sae day2 a second group of /reenpeace acti!ists scaled anot%er rig in t%e

+utc% port of $Juiden# &%e second rig -as set to lea!e t%e port and proceed to-ards a /a:pro

operated drill site in t%e Pec%ora (ea2 also in t%e Arctic# As -ell as clibing t%e rig2 t%e /reenpeace

acti!ists c%ained t%e structure to t%e port"s sea-all in an attept to delay t%e its departure# +utc% police

detained t%e acti!ists at $Juiden fi!e %ours after t%eir protest began2 and t%e ,or-egian coastguard

reo!ed t%eir colleagues on t%e (pitsbergen rig on 27 1ay# &%e coastguard also to-ed t%e /reenpeace

s%ip Asperan:a2 -%ic% %ad been used in t%e Barents (ea action2 a-ay fro t%e drilling site in t%e ?oop

area on 00 1ay# &%e (tatoil rig finally began drilling J7 %ours be%ind sc%edule2 and t%e /a:pro rig is no-

bound for t%e Pec%ora (ea#

Bot% t%ese actions -ere aied at bringing global edia attention to t%e e>pansion of drilling actions by

energy a6ors2 suc% as (tatoil and /a:pro2 in !ulnerable Arctic -aters# Acti!ists on t%e rigs unfurled

banners protesting Arctic drilling and %ig%lig%ting t%e risks t%at potential spills pose to t%e region"s

delicate ecosystes# According to nuerous e>perts fro t%e pri!ate2 public and non)go!ernental

sectors2 /reenpeace"s concerns are -ell 6ustified# (pecifically2 /reenpeace cites its o-n researc% and ne-

researc% fro t%e ,or-egian Polar $nstitute to argue t%at an oil spill fro t%e ?oop area site could reac%

a -ildlife sanctuary on Bear $sland 1@C kiloetres a-ay in less t%an a -eek# (tatoil %a!e re6ected

/reenpeace"s clais about t%e risk of an oil spill2 and Russian President Nladiir Putin %as recently called

/a:pro '%ead and s%oulders abo!e o!erseas partners" in ensuring ecological protection in t%e Arctic#

,e!ert%eless2 t%e balance of e>pert opinion is in /reenpeace"s fa!ourT t%ere is a large body of

independent and go!ernental researc% t%at concludes t%at t%e lack of infrastructure and Arctic

e>pertise -ould ake any attept at cleaning an oil spill in t%e region e>treely difficult#

+espite t%e cost of delays to t%e (pitsbergen pro6ect being estiated at Q1#2I illion per day2 t%e

iediate ipact of bot% t%ese actions -ill ost likely be negligible# (tatoil and /a:pro"s Arctic

pro6ects are set to go a%ead2 and gi!en t%e coparati!ely peaceful resolutions of t%e actions2 neit%er of

t%e actions are likely to generate t%e kind of prolonged edia attention t%at follo-ed t%e detention of

/reenpeace acti!ists in t%e (epteber 2010 Prira:lonoye protest# ?o-e!er2 t%e actions are likely to

pro!ide an incenti!e for increased securitisation of Arctic drilling sites# &%e ,or-egian go!ernent

announced t%e establis%ent of a teporary 'security :one" around t%e (pitsbergen# According to t%e

,or-egian aut%orities2 t%is ade t%e to-ing a-ay of t%e Asperan:a a legally acceptable o!e2 t%oug%

/reenpeace %a!e responded -it% a -ell)founded legal c%allenge based on international aritie la-# As

for t%e Russian go!ernent2 on 22 April Putin signed legislation allo-ing oil and gas corporations to

defend infrastructure -it% pri!ate security forces# .ltiately2 t%oug%2 t%e future of oil and gas drilling in

t%e Arctic -ill depend priarily on econoic factors# &%us t%e onuental (ino)Russian gas deal -ort% as

uc% as Q400 billion signed last -eek guarantees Russia a %uge arket for gas o!er t%e ne>t 00 years2 and

-ill pro!ide a considerable incenti!e for continuing Arctic oil and gas de!elopent#

Open Briefing | 11

#ther deelopments

Russian state;owned gas ma4or %a8prom has signed a deal with priately;owned $oatek to purchase

6 million tons of liDuefied natural gas .-$%/ annually from the latter!s Gamal -$% pro4ect in the

Russian Arctic* =it% /a:pro"s order secured2 ,o!atek %a!e no- found buyers for alost all of t%e 1I#C

illion tons of *,/ t%at t%e pro6ect is planned to produce annually by its copletion in 201J# As -ell as

representing a %uge in!estent in Russia"s Arctic Oaal Peninsula2 t%e pro6ect -ill %a!e a considerable

ipact on t%e e>pansion of Arctic s%ipping2 as ,o!atek plans to s%ip uc% of t%e *,/ along t%e ,ort%ern

(%ipping Route#

The $orwegian Ministry of +efence will eCtend its suspension of military cooperation with Russia,

according to a press release issued by +efence 1inister $ne Ariksen (Ureide on 2J 1ay# $n response to

-%at t%e inister called Russia"s continued interference in t%e crisis in .kraine2 all bilateral ilitary

acti!ities -ill be suspended until t%e end of 2014# ?o-e!er2 ,or-ay -ill continue -it% utual cooperation

in coastguard2 border guard and searc% and rescue operations# Oslo -ill also continue 6oint operations

-it% Russia"s ,ort%ern 8leet2 a po-erful na!y unit based in t%e Bola Peninsula#

=innish Chief of +efence Ari Puheloinen has sought to allay concerns oer an incursion last week into

=innish airspace by two Russian aircraft* YLE News reported on 2@ 1ay t%at -%ile t%e 8innis% defence

c%ief clais to be troubled by t%e incident2 in -%ic% t%e planes t-ice !iolated 8innis% airspace2 its

significance %as been e>aggerated by t%e edia# =%ile declining to ake any certain conclusions until

furt%er in!estigation %as been carried out2 t%e defence c%ief noted t%at pre!ious !iolations in t%e past

%a!e been accidental# &%e 8innis% border guard t%en suspended its in!estigations into t%e !iolation2

claiing t%at t%e ost likely e>planation for t%e intrusion -as 'careless na!igation"#

#n the radar

Russia!s $orthern =leet has announced plans for new eCpeditions to take place this summer

to t%e islands of 8ran: Josef *and2 (e!ernaya Felya2 t%e ,e- (iberian $slands and =rangel $sland#

ECCon Mobil and Rosneft are to proceed with offshore eCploration pro4ects in the Russian

territory of the Chukchi 3ea in t%e suer season as soon as sea ice clears#

Rain forecast for the beginning of the week in the Russian Arctic city of $aryan;Mar will

bring threats of floods as regional aut%orities declared a state of eergency last -eek as a result

of flooding of t%e Pec%ura Ri!er#

Published with intelligence support from

Bradburys Global Ris Partners | www*bradburys*co*uk

Analysts: C%ris Abbott2 +erek Crystal2 *aura ?artann2 &ancrVde 8euillade2 1att%e- Couillard2 Claudia

=agner2 +aniel &aylor and Patrick (e-ell#

Open Briefing | 1"

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