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"#$ Interested Parties
%&#'$ Global Strategy Group
&($ NE 02 Congressional Race
)*"($ June 3, 2014
Democrat Brad Ashford Tied with Unpopular Rep. Lee Terry
Survey shows remarkable weak position for incumbent
The Congressional race in Nebraska's 2
District is dead even as voters are eager for an alternative to
incumbent Republican Lee Terry, according to a recent survey of likely voters in the district conducted by
Global Strategy Group.
Given Democrat Brad Ashford's strong initial standing and the widespread
dissatisfaction with Terry's performance in office, Ashford is well positioned to win the seat this
November. Key findings are as follows:
Few voters are committed to re-electing Lee Terry this fall. Only one-third (33%) of voters say
they would vote to re-elect Lee Terry if the election were held tomorrow, while another one-third
(33%) would consider another candidate and three in ten (30%) are committed to replacing him. Even
among Republicans, just one-half (50%) are committed to re-electing their incumbent Congressman,
while nearly three-fourths of Independents (74%) say they will either consider another candidate
(46%) or definitely vote to replace Terry (28%).
Voters of aII poIiticaI stripes have serious doubts about Terry's performance in office. Likely
voters in the district are overwhelmingly negative (36% positive/63% negative) in the ratings they
afford Terry for his job in Congress. Ìndependents rate Terry's performance negatively by greater
than a two-to-one margin (30% positive/68% negative), while GOP voters are evenly split on Terry's
performance in office (52% positive/48% negative). Terry's shaky standing with district Republicans is
yet another indication of the trouble the Congressman is having holding on to his Republican base
after barely withstanding a primary challenge last month. Terry's job rating among Republican voters
is nearly identical to the narrow 53%/47% margin with which he won the Republican primary against
Dan Frei despite outspending Frei by greater than a 20-to-1 margin, roughly $900,000 dollars to
$40,000 dollars, in the race.
Brad Ashford is tied with Terry in a head to head matchup. State Representative Brad Ashford is
drawing an equal share of votes as Terry in a trial heat with the three candidates currently on the
November ballot, including Libertarian candidate Steven Laird (41% Ashford/41% Terry/4% Laird).
Ashford's competitive standing is a reflection of the Democrat's broad appeal, as he not only
consolidates a greater share of voters from his own party (75% of Democrats) than Terry (63% of
Republicans) but also wins Independent and moderate voters by comfortable margins. Ashford leads
Terry by 12 points among Independents (44% Ashford/32% Terry), and outperforms the incumbent by
a 2-to-1 margin among the district's wide swath of self-described moderates (55% Ashford/27%
The bottom line is this: Brad Ashford has a clear opportunity to win the race for Nebraska's 2
Congressional District this year. District voters have deeply soured on Lee Terry, who has failed to
convince even his own Republican base that he deserves re-election this fall. This survey represents
another repudiation of Terry from district voters after his unconvincing performance in the Republican
primary last month, and Ashford's cross-partisan appeal makes him an ideal candidate to provide the
alternative that voters are looking for this November.
This survey was conducted among 400 likely November 2014 voters in Nebraska's 2
Congressional District between May 29
and June 1
, 2014. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is+/- 4.9 percentage points on the overall sample. The margin of
error on sub-samples is greater.