VISIONS FOR THE SMART GRID PANEL Andrew Tang, Senior Director, Smart Energy Web, PG&E Philip

Mezey, SVP & COO, Itron North America David Pacyna, SVP & GM, NAFTA Transmission & Distribution, Siemens Energy Sharon Allan, Senior Executive, North American Smart Grid Practice, Accenture HOST: Matt Marshall

GreenBeat 2009
SmartGrid Vision for 2015

Andrew Tang
Senior Director Smart Energy Web November 19, 2009
3

Challenge: Peakiness of Demand

Annual Generation Utilization
50,000

45,000

40,000

Last 5% (2,500 MW) needed less than 50 hours per year

35,000

30,000

MW

25,000

20,000

15,000

Last 25% of capacity needed less than 10% of the time

10,000

5,000

0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500

Challenge: Integrating Projected Generation Mix

2009
Other

2020
Large Hydro

Nuclear

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Large Hydro Natural Gas Renewable

Renewable*

Coal

*With 33% RPS

Other

Intermittency of Renewable Resources
22.5 TWh 34.8 TWh 72.3 TWh 77.6 TWh

700 600 500

Each color represents a unique 24 hour day −Day 29

Megawatts

−Day 9
−Day 5 −Day 26

400 300 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1415 16 17 1819 20 21 22 23 24

−Average

Source: California Public Utilities Commission, July 2009

Challenge: Distributed Generation

40% of US solar PV interconnections are in PG&E’s service territory

PV Solar Is Concentrated

596 cities Average = 57 Median = 12 Mode (86 cities) = 1 Top 20 cities = 38% of total

Challenge: Electric Vehicle Growth
High (845)

Thousands of EVs

Average (532)

HEV Historical Low (219)

Cumulative PG&E Service Territory PEV Market Adoption Scenarios

* Shifted 10 years forward

HEV density: A Tale of Two Cities
Fresno CA: New registrations: 83K HEV registrations: 2K 2.4% new registrations HEVs HEV zip code median: 11

= 25 HEVs

Source: Polk & Company, DMV new car registrations.

HEV density: A Tale of Two Cities
Berkeley CA: New registrations: 14K HEV registrations: 2.5K 18% new registrations HEVs HEV zip code median: 212

= 25 HEVs

Source: Polk & Company, DMV new car registrations.

PEV Charging Creates A Significant Increase In Load
Customers will prefer a 240V charge to shorten recharge times
16 hours
Berkeley

PEV charging is a large load for PG&E customers, comparable to average peak summer load of a single home
San Francisco

BEV Recharge time

8 hours 4 hours

Vacaville

Fresno

120V/12A

240V/15A

240V/30A

Rocklin

Rate of charge

San Ramon

BEV @ 240V/30A 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 kW
Source: http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/#/charging, August 14, 2009

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Four Challenges
Peakiness in the absence of Time Shifting
Aggressive additions to Intermittent Renewables

Local Concentrations of DG

Local Concentrations of EVs

Smart Grid Vision 2015
Overlay with intelligence and automation Sense Communicate Compute Control

Power Plants

Transmission Substations Distribution Consumers Networks Networks

Challenges On The Horizon

Policy Technology Consumer Adoption

© 2009, Itron Inc.

The smart grid is about more than just communications, technology and energy systems allowing us to secure our future. It’s about a cultural transformation for the utility industry and all consumers of energy.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Building the smart grid may take a lifetime. But aspects of it are here today and it is developing rapidly. To be successful, we need an infrastructure designed to evolve and interoperate.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Is it too obvious a thought that we need to protect the world’s energy and water supply? Evidently not. It’s time to get real about the level of security needed to secure our energy infrastructure.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Too many discussions about the smart grid are framed with only the world’s largest utilities in mind. The key players of course have a big stake in the grid’s future, but all utilities need to be able to access the grid and use it in ways that meet their unique objectives.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Advanced metering is the technology around which the smart grid is built. Why? Because it acts as the smart grid’s nervous system, flowing with information and commands. Because it provides the necessary ongoing measurement for the grid’s networks, technologies and other applications. Because it becomes the framework for a multi-application network. And most importantly, because it is here today.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Utilities, regulators, consumers and others are tired of excessive hype around the smart grid. We are too.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

For some time, the definitions of “open” and “standards” have been debated, misunderstood and often misrepresented.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

The smart grid is creating new ways to understand energy use and behaviors. With this comes the development of new roles— from the utility executive to the end use customer. But what does this all mean?

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Sometimes patches can be a good thing: A mended hole in a garment. A bandage that helps a wound heal. A piece of tape on an exposed wire in your kitchen until the electrician shows up. By definition, a patch is a temporary fix, a short-term solution. But imagine an energy grid where functions along the network are patched together and incompatible. That won’t work.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

If there’s one thing that 30 years of experience driving innovation for utilities has taught us, it’s that our complex industry is bigger than any one company. We have to work together.

© 2009, Itron Inc.

Smart Grid in 2015….. Becoming „Grid As Usual“

• Demand Response and RPS Targets Part of Every Utility’s Strategy • Decoupling, TOU Rates, and other Innovative Measures Create New Paradigm for Economic Structure of the Industry • Nationwide Transmission Superhighway….Under Construction! • eMobility…Gaining Speed • Storage, Fast Charging for eCars, Self Healing Networks…Setting the Technology Pace

November 2009 © 2009 Siemens Energy, Inc. All rights reserved

SHARON ALLEN

Visions of the Smart Grid 2015
Sharon Allan Partner, Accenture NA Smart Grid Services

Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved.

32

Smart Grid 2015: Transformation Connections
• More Renewable and Distributed Resources
– Wind: From a fraction of a percent 5 years ago to 3% by 2015 – Solar Photovoltaics: From a fraction of a percent 5 years ago to 1.5% by 2015 – MicroGrids

• Integrated Visualization, Analytics, & Control • Smart Meters utilized for more than generating a monthly bill
– From less than 1 million 5 years ago to over 57M in 2015 (NA)
Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 33

Smart Grid 2015: Digitizing and Connecting
• Electrification (EV/PHEV and Boats)
– From virtually none 5 years ago to projections of 1.7M Worldwide – President Obama wants 1.5M by 2015 – V2G limited… will likely occur beyond 2015

• More Consumer/Business offerings
– Value to Customer – More accessible information
Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 34

Smart Grid 2015: Not just Technology but part of Social Norms

Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved.

35

Sources: 1.Pike Research Forecast 2.Montreal PHEV World 2009 3.IEA report, Transport, Energy&CO2: Moving Toward Sustainability (2009) 4. "EPRI Joins Ford-SCE Analysis of Plug-In Hybrids on Grid," Targeted News Service, 27 March 2008, via Factiva, © Copyright 2008, Targeted News Service. 5. "PSA Peugeot Citroën's EV Strategy Shifts into High Gear," Business Wire Regulatory Disclosure, 5 March 2009, via Factiva, © 2009, Business Wire. 6. Masia, Seth, comment on "EV Batteries: An Investor's Take," Solor Today Blog, comment posted March 29, 2009, http://ases.org/index.php?option=com_myblog&show=EV-batteries-An-investors-take.html&Itemid=27. 7. International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2009

Sharon Allan Partner, Accenture NA Smart Grid Services sharon.s.allan@accenture.com
Copyright © 2009 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 36

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