31-Dec

2000 A
2001 A
2002 A
2003 E
2004 E

Sales
Euro M
703
636
671
668
698

EBITDA
Euro M

Net Income
Euro M

107
43
111
173

48
-30
-81
92

2001
60.3
10.1
7.6
0.1

2002
55.3
(6.1)
(4.5)
(0.0)

2003
62.6
(47.2)
(30.9)
(0.4)

2001
60.3
10.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
115.0
212.0
128.0
199.0

2002
55.3
(6.2)
0.3
0.3
0.5
122.0
212.0
101.0
233.0

2003
62.6
(47.2)
0.4
0.5
0.7
127.0
171.0
94.0
204.0

2001
24.7
0.5

2002
(9.8)
0.3

2003
(60.6)
0.4

Profitability

Profitability
Gross Margin (%)
Operating Margin (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)
Basic Earning Power

Liquidity & Working Capital
Quick Ratio
Current Ratio
LT Debt / Equity
Total Debt / Equity
Total Debt / Total Assets
Days Receivable (Days)
Days Inventory (Days)
Days payables (Days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days)

Financial Structure
TIE
Working capital /turnover
WACC (%)
Beta
cost of debt
cost of equity

12.55%
1.4
5.50%
12.55%

Stockholder Return
Earnings Per Share
Sales Per Share
Book Value
Cash Flow
Cash Per Share

2001
0.9
11.4

2002
(0.5)
12.1

2003
(3.7)
12.0

9.2
1.4
0.5

8.2
0.2
0.5

4.5
(3.0)
0.4

2001

2002

2003

Value Creation

EPS
Euro
1.1
0.1
1.0
1.8

Sales Growth (%)
Return on Equity (%)
Return on Assets (%)
Return on Investments (%)
ROCE (%)
EVA
MVA
S/H Equity
Total Equity (€ million)
Shares o/s (million)
Sales / Share (€)
Share Price (€)
Book Value / Share (€)

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

5.5
(6.2)
(3.6)
(5.4)
(0.1)

(58.2)
(23.0)
(43.8)
(0.6)

2001
509.2
55.6
11.44

2002
457.8
55.6
12.07

2003
251.6
55.6
12.03
40.43

9.17

8.24

4.53

Price / Sales (€)

3.36

Price / Book (€)

8.93

Analyst Recommendations
Current

Buy
Outperform
Hold
Underperform
Strong Sell
Median

4 weeks ago

8 weeks ago

3
2
1
4
5

3
2
1
4
5

3
2
2
5
3
Underperform

Comparison Estimates
Source
DKW
AHORRO CORP SA
FORTIS BANK
ESPIRITO SANTO
BANESTO BOLSA
GRUPO SANTANDER
MORGAN STANLEY
CAI CHEUVREUX
CSFB
DEUTSCHE BANK

Target (€)
€ 28.20
€ 28.50
€ 30.10
€ 30.99
€ 35.75
€ 37.00
€ 40.00
€ 42.30
€ 46.00
€ 47.00

Date
5/25/2004
5/13/2004
5/3/2004
3/16/2004
8/4/2004
4/21/2004
3/18/2004
1/31/2004
5/17/2004
5/26/2004

13 weeks ago

3
2
1
4
5

ROIC
%
10.7
0.0
12.8
21.4

3 yr
Average
59.4
(14.4)
(9.3)
(0.1)
3 yr
Average
59.4
(14.4)
0.2
0.3
0.5

P/E
x
34.0
266.8
37.5
20.2

R/E rel
%
218
1,365
261
162

Gross Profit / Sales x 100
2003 = 396/632.6*100
Operating Income / Total Revenu x 100
Income after tax / total revenue
2003 = (206)/668 =
Ebit / total assets

(current assets - inventories) / current liabilities
current assets / current liabilities
Total Debt / Total Assets

3 yr
Average
Ebit / interest expenses

3 yr
Growth
(4.6)
0.6
(4.6)
(4.4)
(0.2)

3 yr
Average

2003 = 129 / 881

-0.308

2002 = ((41) / 670) x 100
2002 = ((29.9)/670 =

1.8
(21.4)
(8.8)
(16.4)
(0.2)

Nopat * (1-tax) / (LTD + Eq)

2002 = ((41) / 670) x 100 =
2002 = ((29.9)/670 =
-0.045

-6.12

BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS
Balance Sheet
(millions)
ASSETS
Fix Assets
Receivables
Goodwill & Intangibles
Inventories
Other
Cash
LIABILITIES & EQ
LTD
Eq
Min Int
Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Other Liabilities

2001

2002

2003

148.0
195.0
40.9
317.6
27.6
27.7
756.8

170.8
221.2
181.7
305.0
11.0
28.2
917.9

235.4
243.7
149.9
211.6
17.2
23.2
881.0

3.1
509.2
1.7
163.5
67.7
11.6
756.8

128.7
457.8
2.0
213.9
88.1
27.4
917.9

95.8
251.6
0.9
178.4
318.0
36.3
881.0

2001
635.5
571.3
64.2
(2.6)
61.6
13.7
47.9

2002
670.7
712.0
(41.3)
(4.2)
(45.5)
(15.6)
(29.9)
0.1
(29.8)

2003
668.3
983.5
(315.2)
(5.2)
(320.4)
(113.8)
(206.6)
3.6
(203.0)

55.6
-0.54
0

55.6
-3.65
0

Income Statement
(millions)
Revenue
Operating Expenses
Op Income
Interest Expense
EBT
Provision for tax
IAT
Minority Interests
Net Income

47.9

Cash Flow
Potential Cash Flow

Stockholders equity structure
Number of shares (million)
Basic earning per share (euro)
Dividends per share

Valuation Ratios
Share Price
Total Sh Equity
Total Sales

EBITDA
Total Revenue

euros
euro millions

2001
635

2002
671

40.43
2246.13
668.3
###
2003
668

2004 E
700

Cost of Revenue
GROSS REV

232
403

285
386

237
432

250
450

SGA Exp
Other Expenses
EBITDA

118
175
110

141
204
42

145
181
106

144
181
125

Depreciation
Unusual Expenses

29
18

43
40

42
379

42
50

EBIT

64

-41

-315

34

Common Size Balance Sheet
2001
ASSETS
Fix Assets
20%
Receivables
26%
Goodwill & Intangibles
5%
Inventories
42%
Other
4%
Cash
4%
100%
LIABILITIES & EQ
LTD
0%
Eq
67%
Min Int
0%
Payables
22%
Other Current Liabilities
9%
Other Liabilities
2%
100%

2002

2003

19%
24%
20%
33%
1%
3%
100%

27%
28%
17%
24%
2%
3%
100%

14%
50%
0%
23%
10%
3%
100%

11%
29%
0%
20%
36%
4%
100%

Working capital
WC
WCR

112.9 LTD + Eq +Min int - FA
276.9 Inv + rec - pay

SUMMARY:

NPV / SHARE

GROWTH (10yr)

EBITDA
2004 ∆
2003

ZERO
+0%
+10%
+15%
+20%

MID (1.25%

€ 24.24
€ 26.85
€ 28.15
€ 29.45

ZERO GROWTH 2004 / ZERO GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
125 (million, see sheet EBITDA)
Growth Rate
0.00% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

NPV
PER SHARE

NPV

€ 28.89
€ 31.96
€ 33.50
€ 35.03

Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

2005
€ 125.00

2006
€ 125.00

2007
€ 125.00

2008
€ 125.00

€ 108.00
€ 17.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 1,345.59
€ 24.24

Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

2004
€ 125.00

2005
€ 126.56

2006
€ 128.14

2007
€ 129.75

2008
€ 131.37

€ 108.00
€ 17.00

€ 126.56

€ 128.14

€ 129.75

€ 131.37

€ 1,468.48
€ 26.46

ZERO GROWTH 2004 / 2.5% ONWARDS
EBITDA
125 (million, see sheet EBITDA)
Growth Rate
2.50% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows

HIGH (2.5%

2004
€ 125.00

ZERO GROWTH 2004 / 1.25% ONWARDS
EBITDA
125 (million, see sheet EBITDA)
Growth Rate
1.25% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows

€ 26.46
€ 29.28
€ 30.70
€ 32.11

Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

2004
€ 125.00

2005
€ 128.13

2006
€ 131.33

2007
€ 134.61

2008
€ 137.98

€ 108.00
€ 17.00

€ 128.13

€ 131.33

€ 134.61

€ 137.98

€ 1,603.60

PER SHARE

€ 28.89

10% GROWTH 2004 /
0% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
137.5 (million)
Growth Rate
0.00% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 137.50

2005
€ 137.50

2006
€ 137.50

2007
€ 137.50

2008
€ 137.50

€ 108.00
€ 29.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 1,490.12
€ 26.85

15% GROWTH 2004 /
0% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
143.75 (million)
Growth Rate
0.00% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 143.75

2005
€ 143.75

2006
€ 143.75

2007
€ 143.75

2008
€ 143.75

€ 108.00
€ 35.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 1,562.38
€ 28.15

20% GROWTH 2004 /
0% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
150 (million)
Growth Rate
0.00% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 150.00

2005
€ 150.00

2006
€ 150.00

2007
€ 150.00

2008
€ 150.00

€ 108.00
€ 42.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 1,634.65
€ 29.45

10% GROWTH 2004 /
2.5% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
137.5 (million)
Growth Rate
2.50% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value

2004
€ 137.50

2005
€ 140.94

2006
€ 144.46

2007
€ 148.07

2008
€ 151.77

Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

€ 108.00
€ 29.50

€ 140.94

€ 144.46

€ 148.07

€ 151.77

€ 1,773.93
€ 31.96

MOST LIKELY
15% GROWTH 2004 /
2.5% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
143.75 (million)
Growth Rate
2.50% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 143.75

2005
€ 147.34

2006
€ 151.03

2007
€ 154.80

2008
€ 158.67

€ 108.00
€ 35.75

€ 147.34

€ 151.03

€ 154.80

€ 158.67

€ 1,859.09
€ 33.50

20% GROWTH 2004 /
2.5% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
150 (million)
Growth Rate
2.50% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 150.00

2005
€ 153.75

2006
€ 157.59

2007
€ 161.53

2008
€ 165.57

€ 108.00
€ 42.00

€ 153.75

€ 157.59

€ 161.53

€ 165.57

€ 1,944.26
€ 35.03

10% GROWTH 2004 /
1.25% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
137.5 (million)
Growth Rate
1.25% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 137.50

2005
€ 139.22

2006
€ 140.96

2007
€ 142.72

2008
€ 144.50

€ 108.00
€ 29.50

€ 139.22

€ 140.96

€ 142.72

€ 144.50

€ 1,625.30
€ 29.28

15% GROWTH 2004 /
1.25% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
143.75 (million)
Growth Rate
1.25% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 143.75

2005
€ 145.55

2006
€ 147.37

2007
€ 149.21

2008
€ 151.07

€ 108.00
€ 35.75

€ 145.55

€ 147.37

€ 149.21

€ 151.07

€ 1,703.71
€ 30.70

20% GROWTH 2004 /
1.25% GROWTH ONWARDS
EBITDA
150 (million)
Growth Rate
1.25% (yrs 1-10 = Excess Return Period Yrs 11+ = Normal Mkt Growth)

EBITDA
Terminal Value
Exceptional
Cashflows
NPV
PER SHARE

2004
€ 150.00

2005
€ 151.88

2006
€ 153.77

2007
€ 155.70

2008
€ 157.64

€ 108.00
€ 42.00

€ 151.88

€ 153.77

€ 155.70

€ 157.64

€ 1,782.11
€ 32.11

No. Shares
WACC

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 125.00

2010
€ 125.00

2011
€ 125.00

2012
€ 125.00

2013
€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00

€ 125.00 € 1,497.01

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 125.00
€ 1,372.01

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 133.01

2010
€ 134.67

2011
€ 136.36

2012
€ 138.06

2013
€ 139.79

€ 133.01

€ 134.67

€ 136.36

€ 138.06

€ 139.79 € 1,695.02

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 141.53
€ 1,553.48

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 141.43

2010
€ 144.96

2011
€ 148.59

2012
€ 152.30

2013
€ 156.11

2014
€ 160.01
€ 1,756.28

€ 141.43

€ 144.96

€ 148.59

€ 152.30

€ 156.11 € 1,916.29

No. Shares
WACC

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 137.50

2010
€ 137.50

2011
€ 137.50

2012
€ 137.50

2013
€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50

€ 137.50 € 1,646.71

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 137.50
€ 1,509.21

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 143.75

2010
€ 143.75

2011
€ 143.75

2012
€ 143.75

2013
€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75

€ 143.75 € 1,721.56

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 143.75
€ 1,577.81

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 150.00

2010
€ 150.00

2011
€ 150.00

2012
€ 150.00

2013
€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00

€ 150.00 € 1,796.41

No. Shares
WACC
2009
€ 155.57

2010
€ 159.46

2011
€ 163.44

2012
€ 167.53

2014
€ 150.00
€ 1,646.41

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)
2013
€ 171.72

2014
€ 176.01
€ 1,931.91

€ 155.57

€ 159.46

€ 163.44

€ 167.53

No. Shares
WACC

€ 171.72 € 2,107.92

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 162.64

€ 166.71

2011
€ 170.87

2012
€ 175.15

2013
€ 179.52

€ 162.64

€ 166.71

€ 170.87

€ 175.15

€ 179.52 € 2,203.74

2010

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 184.01
€ 2,019.73

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 169.71

2010
€ 173.95

2011
€ 178.30

2012
€ 182.76

2013
€ 187.33

€ 169.71

€ 173.95

€ 178.30

€ 182.76

€ 187.33 € 2,299.55

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 192.01
€ 2,107.54

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 146.31

2010
€ 148.14

2011
€ 149.99

2012
€ 151.87

2013
€ 153.77

€ 146.31

€ 148.14

€ 149.99

€ 151.87

€ 153.77 € 1,864.52

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 155.69
€ 1,708.83

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 152.96

€ 152.96

€ 154.87

2011
€ 156.81

2012
€ 158.77

2013
€ 160.75

€ 154.87

€ 156.81

€ 158.77

€ 160.75 € 1,949.27

2010

No. Shares
WACC

2014
€ 162.76
€ 1,786.50

55.5 (million)
8.4% (percent)

2009
€ 159.61

2010
€ 161.61

2011
€ 163.63

2012
€ 165.67

2013
€ 167.74

2014
€ 169.84
€ 1,864.18

€ 159.61

€ 161.61

€ 163.63

€ 165.67

€ 167.74 € 2,034.02

Total Revenue
Cost of Revenue
GROSS REV

2001
635
231.7
403.3

2002
670.7
284.5
386.2

2003
668.5
236.7
431.8

2004 E
700
250
450

SGA Exp
Depreciation
Unusual Expenses
Other Expenses
OPERATING INCOME

118.4
28.8
17.6
174.7
63.8

141.1
42.7
40.2
203.5
-41.3

145
41.5
379.2
181
-314.9

144
41.5
50
181
33.5

EBITDA

110.2

41.6

105.8

125

EVA
[EBT x

(1 - T)]

-

[(Debt + Equity) x

Basic profitability ratios

Liquidity ratios
Current ratio
Quick ratio

2003
1.36
0.82

2002
1.74
0.80

2003
1.72
208.79
0.99
0.40

2002
1.18
186.62
1.02
0.39

2003
57.0%
7.9

2002
49.9%
-0.6

Debt / total assets
Ebit / interest expenses

2003
3.0%
-11.7%

2002
-0.11%
-2.7%

Ebit / total assets
Net income / total assets

2003

2002

current assets / current liabili
(current assets - inventories)

Asset Management ratios
Inv turnover
Avrg collection period
FA turnover
Assets turnover

Sales / inventory
Receivables / daily sales
Sales / net fixed assets
Sales / total assets

Debt ratios
Debt ratio
TIE

Additional profitability ratios
Basic earning power ratio
ROA

Market value ratios
Price to earning (PER)
Market book ratio
Book value per share
Assumption Price per share

0.14
6,439.9
912

0.09
8,241.2
754

Price per share / earning per
Market price per share / book
Common equity / shares outs

Dividend Yield
DPO (dividends pay out)

0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%

Dividend D1 / Price share P0
Dividend / net income

WACC]

current assets / current liabilities
(current assets - inventories) / current liabilities

Sales / inventory
Receivables / daily sales
Sales / net fixed assets
Sales / total assets

Debt / total assets
Ebit / interest expenses

Ebit / total assets
Net income / total assets

Price per share / earning per share
Market price per share / book value per share
Common equity / shares outstanding

352.6
-118.4
-28.8
-17.6
-174.7
13.1

Dividend D1 / Price share P0
Dividend / net income