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Session 5

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Production decline analysis
Production decline analysis is a means of identifying well production problems
and predicting well performance and life based on real production data.
It uses empirical decline models including
Exponential decline (constant fractional decline)
Harmonic decline
Hyperbolic decline












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While the hyperbolic decline model is more general, the other two models are
degenerations of the hyperbolic decline model. These three models are related
through the following relative decline rate equation:



where ‘b’ and ‘d’ are empirical constants to be determined based on
production data.





The decline models are applicable to both oil and gas wells.
Among the above mentioned models, the hyperbolic model is more difficult to
analyse but it is able to predict a wide range of decline behaviours .
Example:
A producing well declines harmonically. If the well monthly decline constant is
0.028, find the well flow rate after 18 months assuming that the flow rate at the
end of the first month has been 115 STB/day.






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Exponential decline
Based on the exponential decline model, the following equations are derived
for decline rate and production rate:








where
t: time in months or years
q: flow rate in STB/day
N: production in STB

It can be shown that




That is, the fractional decline is constant.
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Example:
Given that a well has declined from 100 STB/day to 96 STB/day during a one-
month period, use the exponential decline model to perform the following tasks:
A) Predict the production rate after one year.
B) Calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year.
C) Project the yearly production for the well for the first 5 years.
D) Say after how many years the well is practically depleted.
E) Draw well flow rate and production curves w.r.t time.

Solution

A)



Rate at the end of a year:




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B)
To calculate the amount of oil produced during the first year, we need to
calculate the daily exponent:







Solving other sections of the problem requires iterative calculations, so an
Excel Spreadsheet has been generated to calculate them.



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C) and D)

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E)

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Activity 5.
1- Add a column to the spread sheet and calculate the cumulative production.
Verify your solution.
2- Repeat the example given that the well has declined from 200 STB/day to 188
STB/day during a two month period.


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