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If you compute the mean of a sample of 10 numbers, the value you obtain will not equal

the population mean exactly; by chance it will be a little bit higher or a little bit lower. If

you sampled sets of 10 numbers over and over again (computing the mean for each set),

you would find that some sample means come much closer to the population mean than

others. Some would be higher than the population mean and some would be lower.

Imagine sampling 10 numbers and computing the mean over and over again, say about

1,000 times, and then constructing a relative frequency distribution of those 1,000 means.

This distribution of means is a very good approximation to the sampling distribution of

the mean. The sampling distribution of the mean is a theoretical distribution that is

approached as the number of samples in the relative frequency distribution increases.

With 1,000 samples, the relative frequency distribution is quite close; with 10,000 it is

even closer. As the number of samples approaches infinity, the relative frequency

distribution approaches the sampling distribution.

The sampling distribution of the mean for a sample size of 10 was just an example; there

is a different sampling distribution for other sample sizes. Also, keep in mind that the

relative frequency distribution approaches a sampling distribution as the number of

samples increases, not as the sample size increases since there is a different sampling

distribution for each sample size.

A sampling distribution can also be defined as the relative frequency distribution that

would be obtained if all possible samples of a particular sample size were taken. For

example, the sampling distribution of the mean for a sample size of 10 would be

constructed by computing the mean for each of the possible ways in which 10 scores

could be sampled from the population and creating a relative frequency distribution of

these means. Although these two definitions may seem different, they are actually the

same: Both procedures produce exactly the same sampling distribution.

Statistics other than the mean have sampling distributions too. The sampling distribution

of the median is the distribution that would result if the median instead of the mean were

computed in each sample.

Students often define "sampling distribution" as the sampling distribution of the mean.

That is a serious mistake.

Sampling distributions are very important since almost all inferential statistics are based

on sampling distributions.

you will see that it is used to construct confidence intervals for the mean and for

significance testing.

1

Given a population with a mean of μ and a standard deviation of σ, the sampling

distribution of the mean has a mean of μ and a standard deviation of , where N is the

sample size. The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean is called the

standard error of the mean. It is designated by the symbol: . Note that the spread of the

sampling distribution of the mean decreases as the sample size increases.

An example of the effect of sample size is shown above. Notice that the mean of the

distribution is not affected by sample size.

Standard error

The standard error of a statistic is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of

that statistic. Standard errors are important because they reflect how much sampling

fluctuation a statistic will show. The inferential statistics involved in the construction of

confidence intervals and significance testing are based on standard errors. The standard

error of a statistic depends on the sample size. In general, the larger the sample size the

smaller the standard error. The standard error of a statistic is usually designated by the

Greek letter sigma (σ) with a subscript indicating the statistic. For instance, the standard

error of the mean is indicated by the symbol: σM.

The central limit theorem states that given a distribution with a mean μ and variance σ2,

the sampling distribution of the mean approaches a normal distribution with a mean (μ)

and a variance σ2/N as N, the sample size, increases.

The amazing and counter-intuitive thing about the central limit theorem is that no matter

what the shape of the original distribution, the sampling distribution of the mean

approaches a normal distribution. Furthermore, for most distributions, a normal

distribution is approached very quickly as N increases. Keep in mind that N is the sample

size for each mean and not the number of samples. Remember in a sampling distribution

the number of samples is assumed to be infinite. The sample size is the number of scores

in each sample; it is the number of scores that goes into the computation of each mean.

On the next page are shown the results of a simulation exercise to demonstrate the central

limit theorem. The computer sampled N scores from a uniform distribution and computed

the mean. This procedure was performed 500 times for each of the sample sizes 1, 4, 7,

and 10.

2

Below are shown the resulting frequency distributions each based on 500 means. For N =

4, 4 scores were sampled from a uniform distribution 500 times and the mean computed

each time. The same method was followed with means of 7 scores for N = 7 and 10

scores for N = 10.

2. The spread of the distributions decreases.

Assume a test with a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 100. Which is more likely:

(1) that the mean of a sample of 5 people is greater than 580 or (2) that the mean of a

sample of 10 people is greater than 580? Using your intuition, you may have been able to

figure out that a mean over 580 is more likely to occur with the smaller sample. One way

to approach problems of this kind is to think of the extremes. What is the probability that

the mean of a sample of 1000 people would be greater than 580. The probability is

practically zero since the mean of a sample that large will almost certainly be very close

to the population mean. The chance that it is more than 80 points away is practically nil.

On the other hand, with a small sample, the sample mean could very well be as many as

80 points from the population mean. Therefore, the larger the sample size, the less likely

it is that a sample mean will deviate greatly from the population mean. It follows that it is

more likely that the sample of 5 people will have a mean greater than 580 then will the

sample of 10 people.

assumption that the distribution is normal. Given normality and the

formula for the standard error of the mean, the probability that the

mean of 5 students is over 580 can be calculated in a manner almost

identical to that used in calculating the area under portions of the

normal curve.

3

Since the question involves the probability of a mean of 5 numbers being over 580, it is

necessary to know the distribution of means of 5 numbers. But that is simply the

sampling distribution of the mean with an N of 5. The mean of the sampling distribution

of the mean is μ (500 in this example) and the standard deviation is = 100/2.236 =

44.72. The sampling distribution of the mean is shown below.

The area to the left of 580 is shaded. What proportion of the curve is below 580? Since

580 is 80 points above the mean and the standard deviation is 44.72, 580 is 80/44.72 =

1.79 standard deviations above the mean.

The formula for z used here is a special case of the general formula for z:

Since the distribution of interest is the distribution of means, the formula can be rewritten

equal to the population mean, and is the standard error of the mean.

In general, when a problem asks about the probability of a mean, the sampling

distribution of the mean should be used. The standard error of the mean is used as the

standard deviation. Continuing with the calculations,

M = 580

μ= 500

= 44.72

From a z table, it can be determined that 0.96 of the distribution is below 1.79. Therefore

the probability that the mean of 5 numbers will be greater than 580 is only 0.04. The

calculation of the probability with N = 10 is similar. The standard error of the mean ( )

obtained for N=5.

probability, it can be determined that the probability of obtaining a mean based on N = 10

that is greater than 580 is only 0.01. As expected, this is much lower than the probability

of .04 obtained for N = 5.

4

Summing up, finding an area under the sampling distribution of the mean is the same as

finding an area below any normal curve. In this case, the normal curve is the sampling

distribution of the mean. It has a mean of μ and a standard deviation of

independent means

his section applies only when the means are computed from independent samples. The

formulas are more complicated when the two means are not independent. Let's say that a

researcher has come up with a drug that improves memory. Consider two hypothetical

populations: the performance of people on a memory test if they had taken the drug and

the performance of people if they had not. Assume that the mean (μ) and the variance ()

of the distribution of people taking the drug are 50 and 25 respectively and that the mean

(μ) and the variance () of the distribution of people not taking the drug are 40 and 24

respectively. It follows that the drug, on average, improves performance on the memory

test by 10 points. This 10-point improvement is for the whole population. Now consider

the sampling distribution of the difference between means. This distribution can be

understood by thinking of the following sampling plan:

Sample n scores from the population of people taking the drug and compute the mean.

This mean will be designated as M1. Then, sample n scores from the population of people

not taking the drug and compute the mean. This mean will be designated as M2. Finally

compute the difference between M1 and M2. This difference will be called Md where the

"d" stands for "difference." This is the statistic whose sampling distribution is of interest.

The sampling distribution could be approximated by repeating the above sampling

procedure over and over while plotting each value of Md. The resulting frequency

distribution would be an approximation to the sampling distribution. The mean and the

variance of the sampling distribution of Md are:

.

= 50 - 40 = 10 and

5

If n1 = 10 and n2 = 8 then = 5.5.

Finally the standard error of Md is simply the square root of the variance of the sampling

Once you know the mean and the standard error of the sampling distribution of the

difference between means, you can answer questions such as the following: Given that

one experiment with the memory drug just described is conducted, what is the probability

that the mean of the group of 10 subjects getting the drug will be 15 or more points

higher than the mean of the 8 subjects not getting the drug? Right away it can be

determined that the chances are not very high since on average the difference between the

drug and no-drug groups is only 10.

A look at a graph of the sampling distribution of Md makes the problem more concrete. The

mean of the sampling distribution is 10 and the standard deviation is 2.35. The graph shows the

mean of the distribution. Tick marks are one standard deviation apart. Back to the question: What

is the probability that the drug group will score 15 or more points higher? The blackened region

of the graph is 15 or higher: It is a small portion of the area. The probability can be determined

by computing the number of standard deviations above the mean 15 is. Since the mean is 10 and

the standard deviation is 2.35, 15 is (15-10)/2.35 = 2.13 standard deviations above the mean.

From a z table it can be determined that .983 of the area is below 2.13; therefore, .017 of the area

is above. It follows that the probability of a difference between the drug and no-drug means of 15

or larger is .017.

The main difference between this problem and simple problems involving the area under

the normal distribution is that in this problem you first had to figure out the mean and

standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the difference between two means. In

the simpler problems involving the area under the normal distribution, you were always

given the mean and standard deviation of the distribution. The formula used there:

Since the problem now concerns differences between means, the relevant statistic is the

difference between means obtained in the sample (experiment), the relevant population

mean (μ) is the mean of the sampling distribution of the difference between means, and

the relevant standard deviation is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of

the difference between means

6

Assume there are k populations each with the same variance (σ2). Further assume that (1)

n subjects are sampled randomly from each population with the mean computed for each

sample and (2) a linear combination of these means is computed by multiplying each

mean by a coefficient and summing the results. Let the linear combination be designated

by the letter "L." If this sampling procedure were repeated over and over again, a

different value of L would be obtained each time. It is this distribution of the values of L

that makes up the sampling distribution of a linear combination of means. The

importance of linear combinations of means can be seen in the section "Confidence

interval on linear combination of means" where it is shown that many experimental

hypotheses can be stated in terms of linear combinations of the mean and that the choice

of coefficients determines the hypothesis tested. The formula for L is: L = a1M1 + a2M2 +

... + akMk where M1is the mean of the numbers sampled from Population 1, M2 is the

mean of the numbers sampled from Population 2, etc. The coefficient a1 is used to

multiply the first mean, a2 is used to multiply the second mean, etc.

Assuming the means from which L is computed are independent, the mean and standard

deviation of the sampling distribution of L are: μL = a1 μ1 + a2 μ2 + ... + ak μk and

population, and n is the number of elements sampled from each population. Consider an

example application using the sampling distribution of L. Assume that on a test of

reading ability, the population means for 10, 12, and 14 year olds are 60, 68, and 80

respectively. Further assume that the variance within each of these three populations is

100. Then, μ1 = 60, μ2 = 68, μ3 = 80, and σ2 = 100. If eight 10-year-olds, eight 12- year-

olds and eight 14-year-olds are sampled randomly, what is the probability that the mean

for the 14 year olds will be 15 or more points higher than the average of the means for the

two younger groups?

Or, symbolically, what is the probability that 15? The answer lies in the

. The mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of L for this

example are μL = a1 μ1 + a2 μ2 + ... + ak μk

= (-.5)(60) + (-.5)(68) + (1)(80) = 16

and = = 4.33.

4.33. The question is, what is the probability of getting a value of L greater than or equal

to 15? The formula = (15 - 16)/4.33 =.23 can be used to find out how many

standard deviations above μL an L of 15 is. Using a z table, it can be determined that .41

of the time a z of -.23 or lower would occur. Therefore the probability of a z of -.23 or

7

higher occurring is (1 - .41) = .59. So, the probability that is greater than 15

is .59.

Just like any other statistic, Pearson's r has a sampling

distribution. If N pairs of scores were sampled over and

over again the resulting Pearson r's would form a

distribution. When the absolute value of the correlation in

the population is low (say less than about .4) then the

sampling distribution of Pearson's r is approximately

normal. However, with high values of correlation, the distribution has a negative skew.

The graph on the right shows the sampling distribution of Pearson's r when the

population correlation is .8 and when N = 19. The strong negative skew is apparent.

Although no value of r ever exceeds 1.0, some values of r are very low. A transformation

called Fisher's z' transformation converts Pearson's r to a value that is normally

It stands to reason that the greater the sample size (N, the number of pairs of scores), the

smaller the standard error. Since N is in the denominator of the formula, the larger the

sample size, the smaller the standard error. Consider the following problem: If the

population correlation (rho) between scores on an aptitude test and grades in school were

.5, what is the probability that a correlation based on 19 students would be larger than

.75? The first step is to convert a correlation of .5 to z'. This can be done with the r to z'

table. The value of z' is .55. The standard error is = 1/4 = .25.

The second step is to convert .75 to z'. Again this is done with an r to z' table. The value is

.97.

The number of standard deviations from the mean can be calculated with the formula:

where: z is the number of standard deviations above the z' associated with the

population correlation, z' is the value of Fisher's z' for the sample correlation (z' =.97 in

this case), μ is the value of z' for the population correlation (.55 in this case) and is the

mean of the sampling distribution of z'. is the standard error of Fisher's z'; it was

previously calculated to be .25 for N = 19.

Plugging the numbers into the formula: z = (.97 - .55)/.25 = 1.68. Therefore, a correlation

of .75 is associated with a value 1.68 standard deviations above the mean. As shown

previously, a z table can be used to determine the probability of a value more than 1.68

standard deviations above the mean. The probability is .95. Therefore there is a .05

8

probability of obtaining a Pearson's r of .75 or greater when the "true" correlation is only

.50.

The sampling distribution of the difference between two independent Pearson r's can be

approached in terms of the sampling distribution of z'. First both r's are converted to z'.

The standard error of the difference between independent z's is:

correlation is based on and N2 is the number of pairs of scores the second correlation is

based upon. It is important to keep in mind that this formula only holds when the two

correlations are independent. This means that different subjects must be used for each

correlation. If three tests are given to the same subjects then the correlation between tests

one and two is not independent of the correlation between tests one and three.

Assume that in the population of females the correlation between a test of verbal ability

and a test of spatial ability is .6 whereas in the population of males the correlation is .5.

If a random sample of 40 females and 35 males is taken, what is the probability that the

correlation for the female sample will be lower than the correlation for the male sample.

Start by computing the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the

difference between z's. As can be calculated with the help of the r to z' procedure, r's of .6

and .5 correspond to Z's of .69 and .55 respectively. Therefore the mean of the sampling

The portion of the distribution for which the difference is negative (the

correlation in the female sample is lower) is shaded. What proportion of

the area is this? A difference of 0 is: standard

deviations above (.58 sd's below) the mean. A z table can be used to

calculate that the probability of a z less than or equal to -.58 is .28.

Therefore the probability the the correlation will be lower in the female sample is .28.

The standard error of the median for large samples and normal distributions is:

. Thus, the standard error of the median is about 25% larger than

that for the mean. It is thus less efficient and more subject to sampling fluctuations. This

formula is fairly accurate even for small samples but can be very wrong for extremely

non- normal distributions. For non-normal distributions, the standard error of the median

is difficult to compute.

9

The distribution of the standard deviation is positively skewed for small N but is

approximately normal if N is 25 or greater. Thus, procedures for calculating the area

under the normal curve work for the sampling distribution of the standard deviation as

long as N is at least 25 and the distribution is approximately normal

Assume that .80 of all third grade students can pass a test of physical fitness. A random

sample of 20 students is chosen: 13 passed and 7 failed. The parameter π is used to

designate the proportion of subjects in the population that pass (.80 in this case) and the

statistic p is used to designate the proportion who pass in a sample (13/20 = .65 in this

case). The sample size (N) in this example is 20. If repeated samples of size N where

taken from the population and the proportion passing (p) were determined for each

sample, a distribution of values of p would be formed. If the sampling went on forever,

the distribution would be the sampling distribution of a proportion. The sampling

distribution of a proportion is equal to the binomial distribution. The mean and standard

example, N = 20, π = .80, the mean of the sampling distribution of p (μ) is .8 and the

standard error of p (σp) is .089. The shape of the binomial distribution depends on both N

and π. With large values of N and values of π in the neighborhood of .5, the sampling

distribution is very close to a normal distribution.

The plot shown here is the sampling distribution for the present example. As you can see,

the distribution is not far from the normal distribution, although it does have some

negative skew.

Assume that for the population of people applying for a job at a bank in a major city, .40

are able to pass a basic literacy test required to get the job. Out of a group of 20

applicants, what is the probability that 50% or more of them will pass? This problem

involves the sampling distribution of p with π = .40 and N = 20. The mean of the

sampling distribution is π = .40. The standard deviation is

10

Using the normal approximation, a proportion of .50 is: (.50-.40)/.11 = 0.909 standard

deviations above the mean. From a z table it can be calculated that 0.818 of the area is

below a z of 0.909. Therefore the probability that 50% or more will pass the literacy test

is only about 1 - 0.818 = 0.182.

Since the normal distribution is a continuous distribution, the probability that a sample

value will exactly equal any specific value is zero. However, this is not true when the

normal distribution is used to approximate the sampling distribution of a proportion. A

correction called the "correction for continuity" can be used to improve the

approximation.

The basic idea is that to estimate the probability of, say, 10 successes out of 20 when π is

0.4, one should compute the area between 9.5 and 10.5 as shown below.

Therefore to compute the probability of 10 or more successes, compute the area above

9.5 successes. In terms of proportions, 9.5 successes is 9.5/20 = 0.475. Therefore, 9.5 =

(0.475 - 0.40)/.11 = 0.682 standard deviations above the mean. The probability of being

0.682 or more standard deviations above the mean is 0.247 rather than the 0.182 that was

obtained previously.The exact answer calculated using the binomial distribution is 0.245.

For small sample sizes the correction can make a much bigger difference than it did here.

proportions

The mean of the sampling distribution of the difference between two independent

proportions (p1 - p2) is μp1 - p2 = π1 - π2. The standard error of p1- p2 is

11

The sampling distribution of p1- p2 is approximately normal as long as the proportions are

not too close to 1 or 0 and the sample sizes are not too small. As a rule of thumb, if n1 and

n2 are each at least 10 and neither nor are within .10 of 0 or 1 then the approximation is

satisfactory for most purposes. To see the application of this sampling distribution,

assume that .8 of high school graduates but only .4 of high school drop outs are able to

pass a basic literacy test. If 20 students are sampled from the population of high school

graduates and 25 students are sampled from the population of high school drop outs, what

is the probability that the proportion of drop outs that pass will be as high as the

proportion of graduates?

.4.

- p2 is less than or equal to 0. The number of standard deviations above the mean

-3.01.

From z table it can be determined that only .0013 of the time would p1 - p2 be 3.01 or

more standard deviations below the mean.

1. What are the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean?

2. Given a test that is normally distributed with a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of

6,

(a) What is the probability that a single score drawn at random will be greater than 34?

(b) What is the probability that a sample of 9 scores will have a mean greater than 34?

(c) What is the probability that the mean of a sample of 16 scores will be either less than

28 or greater than 32?

4. What is the relationship between sample size and the standard error of the mean?

12

5. What is the symbol used to designate the standard error of the mean? The standard

error of the median?

6. Young children typically do not know that memory for a list of words is better if you

rehearse the words. Assume two populations: (1) four-year-old children instructed to

rehearse the words and (2) four-year-old children not given any specific instructions.

Assume that the mean and standard deviation of the number of words recalled by

Population 1 are 3.5 and .8. For Population 2, the mean and standard deviation are 2.4

and 0.9. If both populations are normally distributed, what is the probability that the

mean of a sample of 10 from Population 1 will exceed the mean of a sample of 12 from

Population 2 by 1.8 or more?

7. Assume four normally-distributed populations with means of 9.8, 11, 12, and 10.4 all

with the same standard deviation of 5. Nine subjects are sampled from each population

and the mean of each sample computed. What is the probability that average of the means

of the samples from Populations 1 and 2 will be greater than the average of the means of

the samples from Populations 3 and 4?

population of fifth graders were .45, what would be the probability that in a sample of 12

students, the sample correlation coefficient would be greater than .7?

frequency distribution of the means drawn, what would be the shape of the frequency

distribution?

10. If a fair coin is flipped 18 times, what is the probability it will come up heads 14 or

more times?

11. Some computer programs require the user to type in commands to get the program to

do what he or she wants. Others allow the user to choose from menus and push buttons.

Assume that .45 of office workers are able to solve a particular problem using a program

that is "command based" and that .83 of workers can solve the problem using a

"menu/button based" program. If two samples of 12 subjects are tested, one with each

program, what is the probability that difference in the proportions solving the problem

will be greater than .5?

ANSWERS:2a. 0.2524

2b. 0.0228

2c. 0.1826

6. 0.0278. 0.125

10. Exact binomial probability = 0.0154; normal approximation = 0.0169. Show work to

get the normal approximation.

13

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