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Abstract--In this paper, a fuzzy model is suggested for the
prediction of wind speed and the produced electrical power at a
wind park. The model is trained using a genetic algorithm based
learning scheme. The training set includes wind speed and
direction data, measured at neighboring sites up to 30 km away
from the wind turbine clusters. Extensive simulation results are
shown for two application cases, providing wind speed forecasts
from 30 minutes to two hours ahead. It is demonstrated that the
suggested model achieves an adequate understanding of the
problem while it exhibits significant improvement compared to
the persistent method.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic, wind forecasting.
I. INTRODUCTION
Large rapid changes in wind power may cause serious
reduction in operating economy and reliability, especially for
utilities with large wind power penetration (in the Greek
island of Crete it may reach 20 to 40%). Prediction of wind
power, along with load forecasting, permits scheduling the
connection or disconnection of wind turbines or conventional
generators, thus achieving low spinning reserve and optimal
operating cost.
Since wind power is a function of wind speed, power
forecasts are generally derived through wind speed forecasts.
For a single wind turbine, the speed v is transformed to power
P using manufacturers' curves or can be approximated as
follows:
P = 0 for v < v
i
, v > v
o

P = P
r
(v - v
i
) / (v
r
- v
i
) for v
i
< v < v
r

P = P
r
for v
r
< v < v
o

where v
r
, P
r
, are the rated speed and power of the wind
turbine and v
i
, v
o
are the cut - in and cut - out wind speeds.
In the case of a large-scale application, such as a wind farm
comprising a large number of wind-turbines, the lumped
power output is the addition of values sampled at different
points of a spatial field. The available data can be used to
extract a new power curve that connects this lumped power
with the wind speed as measured at one or more reference
points of the farm.

1
I. G. Damousis, M. C. Alexiadis and P. S. Dokopoulos are with the
Electrical Power Systems Laboratory of the Electrical and Computer
Engineering Department in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.
2
J. B. Theocharis is with the Electronic and Computer Engineering
division of the Electrical and Computer Engineering Department in Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki.
In the past, efforts have been made to simulate wind power
variations, mostly by analysing the wind speed time series of a
certain site [1]. Unfortunately, typical statistical properties of
wind speed such as non-stationarity, a slowly decreasing
autocorrelation curve, and weak diurnal variation are not very
helpful. Therefore, prediction for the next 15 minutes to one
hour was practically close to persistent forecast, which
suggests no change from the most recent values.
In that respect, previous research often turned to spatial
correlation studies of wind speeds, not always leading to a
satisfactory model [2]-[4]. A significant correlation of hourly
or daily average speeds has been recognized for distances of
20 to 100 km. Note that the correlation decreases with
distance [5] and topographical elevation difference [6]. It also
decreases when the orientation of the distance vector differs
from the wind direction [7].
One of the above studies [2] regards spatial correlation of
wind turbulence for short distances (700 m to 15 km) and
short time scales (changes of wind speed per 4, 10, 30 min and
also 1-minute deviations from 30-min averaged value). It is
concluded that the correlation coefficients are related to the
wind direction, terrain roughness and height above the
ground.
More significant seem to be Schlueter’s publications since
they present complete correlated echelon models [3, 4]. He
proposes a simple formula on the base that a certain event
propagates from site A to site B, in a certain time ∆τ (the time
for which cross-correlation is maximised) and it is slightly
changed in its shape and amplitude due to local
characteristics. Regarding medium distances, this formula is
applied separately for four meteorological events (cases) that
are typical for the district; it is found adequate to simulate
short time series of a specific event. Local wind data are not
exploited and the model accuracy is not evaluated or checked
on a future similar event.
A recent paper [8] examines the contribution of data from
local and remote sites to forecasting using neural network
models, and suggests a possible way to improve prediction
accuracy.
The present paper introduces a fuzzy model with two
premise variables, the wind speed and direction. The model
parameters are determined using a genetic algorithm. The
model uses training data measured at various stations in and
around the wind park. Thus, the autocorrelation and cross-
correlation between local and remote wind speed time series
are exploited to improve the efficiency of short term
A Fuzzy Model for Wind Speed Prediction and
Power Generation in Wind Parks using Spatial
Correlation
I.G. Damousis
1
, Student Member IEEE, M.C. Alexiadis, J.B. Theocharis
2
, Member IEEE
and P.S. Dokopoulos, Member IEEE

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forecasting which ranges from a few minutes to several hours
ahead.
II. PROBLEM FORMULATION
Let us consider two sites A (upwind) and B (downwind)
located along the direction of the wind. At a sufficient height
above the ground, we can accept there is a uniform wind
speed field. This is valid for the boundary layer, where winds
are caused by global pressure gradients and remain unaffected
by heat transfer and terrain features. For a considerably short
distance (AB) we may assume a uniform wind speed, above
the two sites, that is
v
A
(t) = v
B
(t) (1)
Any meteorological event arriving at A on time t = 0, may
be realised as a distinct change ∆v in the wind speed. This
event is assumed to propagate with a speed v
A
(t) and is
expected to arrive at B after a time delay proportional to ∆τ:
∆τ = (AB) / v
A
(t) (2)
If v
A
and (AB) vectors are not parallel, instead of (AB), we
may use its projection on wind direction.

∆τ = (AB)
*
v
A
(t) / v
A
2
(t) (3)

This time delay is obviously different for each case
depending on the wind speed and direction.
Close to the surface (15 or 30 m above the ground), wind
field cannot be accepted as uniform. The disturbance
propagation is determined by solving the equations governing
the wind flow (e.g. Navier Stokes), taking into account the
pressure gradient, the boundaries of the terrain, and possibly,
the heat transfer. This method is quite complex while its
efficiency is doubtful for our objectives.
However, it is reasonable to assume that there is some law
of propagation in every case, and a weak or strong relation
exists between speeds at A and B, sited at a certain terrain.
Observing the wind profiles at sites A and B a relationship,
more or less intense, is already established. It seems that speed
v
A
is projected at B with a varying time delay and a certain
change of magnitude. This is demonstrated in Fig.1 where a
typical view of an oncoming front is shown, measured at three
sites. The data used in Fig.1 correspond to an application case
examined later on in detail.
The value τ maximising cross correlation ρ
ΑΒ
is the average
time delay and not the most usual one. Most often it is argued
that it corresponds to one of the prevailing and most frequent
events of the particular area, or even to the algebraic
summation of contradictory events.
Nevertheless, we know that several events appear in the
area under consideration, each one of them resulting to a
respective time delay. For instance, the following cases may
appear:
Case 1: When winds at site A are strong and parallel to
(AB) axis, there is a high correlation between v
A
and v
B
for a
particular time delay (e.g. of about 60 min).

Fig. 1. Typical view of an oncoming front as measured at three sites 1, 2 and
3. The sites are lying along a line 40-km long on the direction of the
propagation of the front. Distances are (Site 1- Site 2) = 27 km, (Site 2-Site 3)
= 12 km.


Case 2: When winds at site A are low, then the winds at site B
are also low; however, there is no particular relation regarding
their fluctuations.
Case 3: When winds are at least medium and they are vertical
to (AB) axis, there is no time delay.
The conclusions drawn above are evident from the cross-
correlation curves depicted in Fig.2. These curves are
extracted separately, using patterns of data that belong to each
one of the above cases.
The following issues should be addressed for an efficient
model that describes the wind propagation process: First,
classify the wind data into several cases considered above.
Then, based on the data clustering, define a relation between
v
A
and v
B
for each case. Such a structure refers to the
IF/THEN rules used in fuzzy systems.
Since the formulation of our problem fits the formalism of
fuzzy propositions, we proceed to developing a fuzzy model
for wind forecasting.


Fig. 2. Auto (A) and cross-correlation (C) curve for wind speeds at two sites
12 km apart. Two pairs of curves are presented concerning: (1) strong NW
winds and (2) low winds of all directions.

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III. THE FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM
Fuzzy logic is a research area based on the principles of
approximate reasoning and computational intelligence. It
departs from classical sets, logic and strict Boolean (True or
False) decisions and assignments. Instead, it uses soft
linguistic variables (e.g. small, medium, large), and a
continuous range of truth-values in the interval [0, 1]. Fuzzy
models are employed in cases where a system is difficult to
model exactly (but an inexact model is available), or
ambiguity and vagueness is encountered in the problem
formulation.
A typical fuzzy system comprises the following key parts:
• A rule base containing a number of IF-THEN rules,
• A decision-making unit, which performs the inference
operations of the rules
• The fuzzification interface which transforms crisp inputs
fuzzy sets that are processed by the fuzzy inference unit,
• The defuzzification interface, that transforms the fuzzy
conclusion providing a crisp output.
Recently, the fuzzy inference system suggested by Takagi,
Sugeno and Kang (TSK fuzzy model) has gained a great
interest in several applications in fuzzy modelling and control.
The TSK fuzzy models consist of linguistic fuzzy rules
represented in the following form:
R
(j)
: IF (x
p,1
is
j
1
A ) AND ... AND (x
p,NPI
is
j
NPI
A )
THEN y
j
= F
j
(x
c,1
, x
c,2
, ..., x
c,NCI
) j=1,...,NR (4)
where NR is the number of fuzzy rules.
The “IF” precondition statements define the premise part
while the “THEN” rule functions constitute the consequent
part of the fuzzy model.
p
X = [x
p,1
, ..., x
p,NPI
]
T
is the input vector to the premise
part comprising NPI input variables.
A
i
j
are labels of fuzzy sets describing linguistically the input
component x
p,i
i = 1, ..., NPI..
c
X = [x
c,1
, ..., x
c,NCI
]
T
denotes the input vector to the
consequent part of R
(j)
containing NCI input variables.
Finally, y
j
= F ) X (
c
represents the j-th rule output which is
generally a crisp function of the input components x
c,i
, i =
1,..., NCI. A special case of particular importance is
encountered when the rule functions are linear polynomials of
the consequent inputs:


=
+ = =
NCI
i
i c
j
i
j
c j
x X F y
1
, 0
) ( λ λ (5)
where
j
i
λ are weight coefficients and
j
0
λ
is a bias term.
The union of all
j
i
λ , i = 1, ..., NCI, j = 1, ..., NR forms the
consequent parameter set.
Each linguistic label
j
i
A is associated with a membership
function ) (
,i p
j
i
x µ . These are usually unimodal functions
(triangular, Gaussian, bell shaped, etc.), taking values in the
interval [0, 1]. In this paper we employ Gaussian type
memberships described by

( )
( )
(
(
¸
(

¸


− =
2
2
,
,
2
1
exp ) (
j
i
j
i i p
i p
j
i
m x
x
σ
µ
(6)
where
j
i
m and
j
i
σ are the mean value and the standard
deviation of the membership function, respectively. The
collection of all these parameters
j
i
m ,
j
i
σ , i = 1,..., NPI,
j = 1, ..., NR formulates the premise parameter set.
The firing strength of the rule R
(j)
, representing the degree
to which R
(j)
is excited by a particular premise input vector
p
X , is determined by

=
=
NPI
i
i p
j
i c j
x X
1
,
). ( ) ( µ µ (7)
The antecedent fuzzy sets pertaining to a rule
) ( j
R define a
fuzzy region within the premise space
j
NPI
j j j
A A A × ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ × × =
2 1
) (
A . (8)
Essentially,
) ( j
A represents a multidimensional fuzzy set
with the membership distribution described by (7).
Using the notation above, the TSK rule can be brought in
the following compact form:
( )
c j j
) j (
p
) j (
X F y THEN A is X IF : R = (9)
Given the input vectors
p
X and
c
X , the final output of the
fuzzy model is inferred using the weighted average
defuzzification method [12] as follows


=
=

=
NR
1 j
p j
NR
1 j
c j p j
) X (
) X ( F ) X (
y
µ
µ
(10)
From the above discussion, it can be seen that the basic
philosophy of the TSK model is to decompose the premise
space into fuzzy regions,
) ( j
A , and approximate the system’s
behaviour in every region by a simple submodel ) X ( F
c
.
Thus, the overall model can be regarded as a fuzzy blending
of linear submodels with simpler structure.
IV. WIND FORECASTING FUZZY MODEL
Our objective is to develop a TSK fuzzy model that
provides future estimates of the wind speed at the reference
site S
0
, based on recent variations of wind speed at
neighbouring sites S
i
, i = 1, ..., NS. Input and output values of
the model are wind speed means in the past, determined over
time intervals of t ∆ minutes.
We employ two data sets, namely, the training and the
testing set. The former data set is used during the
identification process of the fuzzy model while the later one is
used to evaluate the forecast capabilities of the obtained
model. The data sets contain patterns formulated from
historical data, having the following form
| |
REAL PERSISTENT c p
Y Y X X

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where
p
X and
c
X are the input vectors to the premise and
the consequent part, respectively, Y
PERSISTENT
is the wind speed
prediction based on the persistent method, and Y
REAL
is the real
wind speed at future time instants, as obtained by the
measurements.
A. Selection of the Consequent Inputs
With regard to the model variables, the following notation
is used:
• NI
i
is the number of inputs associated with the
measurement site S
i
. S
0
denotes the local site while S
i
, i = 1,
..., NS denote the remote sites, respectively.
• ∆t
i
is the time frame in minutes used to define the time
intervals over which the wind speed means are determined.
• v
ij
denotes the wind speed observed at site S
i
, averaged
over a time period [t – j ∆t
i
, t - (j - 1) ∆t
i
], j = 1, ..., NI
i
.
• v
00
is the future wind speed mean at site S
0
which is to be
forecasted.
Assuming a common number of inputs per site, NI
i
= NI
and a constant time frame ∆t
i
= ∆t for each site, the wind
speed variables are depicted in Table I.

TABLE I. Notation used for wind speed means from remote sites
Time frame Local
site S
0

Site
S
1

Site
S
2


Site
S
NS

[t-∆t, t] v
01
v
11
v
21
… v
NS,1

[t-2∆t, t-∆t] v
02
v
12
v
22
… v
NS,2

… … … … …
[t-NI∆t, t-(NI-1)∆t] v
0,NI
v
1,NI
v
2,NI
… v
NS,NI


Prior research on the subject [8] reveals that the following
observations are valid:
• Different time frames ∆t
i
and number of inputs NI
i
might
be considered for each site.
• For each site S
i
, i=1,...,NS, the interval NI
i
×∆t
i
should
cover a time horizon (eg. 30 minutes or 2 hours), as
dictated by the cross-correlation curve of wind speeds
between S
i
and S
0
.
• The most recent values of the reference site S
0
should
indispensably be considered as consequent input variables.
The consequent input vector includes the wind speed
variables shown in Table I and is formulated as follows
| | | |
T
NI NS NS NI
T
NCI c c c
NS
x x X
, 1 , , 0 1 , 0 , 1 ,
..., , ,..., ..., , ..., ,
0
ν ν ν ν = =
In view of the above definition, the rule output function of
) ( j
R is given by

=
+ = = =
NCI
i
i c
j
i
j
c j j
x X F y
1
, 0
) ( ˆ ˆ λ λ ν (11)
As can be seen from (11), the future wind speed estimate is
determined from the past wind speeds of the sites through a
linear model.
B. Selection of the Premise Inputs
In order to complete the model structure, the NPI premise
inputs x
p,1
, ..., x
p,NPI
should be properly chosen. These are the
decision variables that constitute the premise space. Each
premise variable is described by a certain number of fuzzy
sets covering adequately its universe of discourse.
Fig. 3. Three membership functions ) (
1 , 1 , 1 p
x A , ) (
1 , 2 , 1 p
x A , and ) (
1 , 3 , 1 p
x A
are used to linguistically describe wind speed as: ‘Low’, ‘Medium’, and
‘High’.

Accordingly, the premise space is partitioned into fuzzy
regions
) ( j
A , each one corresponding to a fuzzy rule.
The linguistic description of the inputs is attained using
membership functions of appropriate form. For instance,
assuming the wind speed is a premise input, x
p,1
, we can use
three memberships A
1,1
, A
1,2
and A
1,3
to express the linguistic
propositions that the wind speed is “Low”, “Medium” and
“High”, respectively, as shown in Fig.3. Thus, for a specific
sample x
p,1
= 4 m/s we have
2 . 0 ) x (
1 , p A
1 , 1
= µ , 62 . 0 ) x (
1 , p A
2 , 1
= µ , 0 . 0 ) x (
1 , p A
3 , 1
= µ
In that case, we may say that x
p,1
is categorised as medium
to low wind.
The number of premise inputs should be as small as
possible. A reasonable choice is to select one or two inputs.
This is dictated by our requirement to keep the number of
rules to an acceptably low level. Several methods are
suggested in the literature with the scope to determine the
appropriate inputs from a broad set of candidate inputs [9],
[10]. However, this issue is not addressed here. In this paper,
the decision was taken on the basis of our experience about
the problem under consideration. The following two premise
inputs were selected:
• The wind speed of what is considered to be the oncoming
event. This is the wind speed as measured at the most
remote ‘upwind station’. Among the remote stations S
i
,
i=1,...,NS, surrounding the reference site S
0
, the ‘upwind
station’ is defined as the one such that the axis S
i
-S
0
, is
closest to the direction of the wind. That is, the ‘upwind
station’ is the Eastern remote station if an Eastern wind is
measured there, the Southern station if a Southern wind is
measured there etc.
• The direction of the above-mentioned wind.
The values of wind speed and direction have to be averaged
within a time range of 15 to 30 min, so that a) Turbulence is
extracted, and b) The information concerning the most recent

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changes is preserved. It should be noted that in practice, the
dominant wind directions we are interested in, may be only
two or even one. In each case, the remote stations must be
located properly, as close as possible to the axis determined by
the direction of the wind fronts.
C. Definition of the Model’s Structure
Having selected the premise and consequent inputs, we
proceed to determining the model structure. This step involves
the following issues:
Premise variable description: Each premise variable x
p,i
,
i=1,...,NPI is linguistically described by means of NMF
i
fuzzy
sets. The collection of these fuzzy sets forms the
corresponding term set: TS
i
= {A
il
, l=1,..., NMF
i
}. In our
experiments, the wind speed and direction are each described
by three Gaussian type memberships.
Determining the number of rules: Following the linguistic
description of the premise inputs given above, the premise
space is divided into fuzzy regions
) ( j
A by taking all
possible combinations of the memberships along each axis.
This leads to a number of

=
=
NPI
i
i
NMF NR
1
rules. In our
case, up to 9 rules may be generated.


Fig. 4. Three membership functions A
i,1
(x
p,i
), A
i,2
(x
p,i
), and A
i,3
(x
p,i
) are used for
each premise input i, to express linguistic properties of wind, ie. ‘low’,
‘medium’, and ‘high’ for wind speed, ‘South- West’, ‘North’, and ‘East-
South’ for wind direction.

With regard to the rule structure considered in this paper,
the following comments are in order:
• Separate input vectors
p
X and
c
X are selected for the
premise and the consequent part, respectively. The premise
input
p
X comprises only two significant components
characterizing the process, thus leading to a small number
of rules and economical TSK models. On the contrary, the
consequent input
c
X contains a rich set of past wind speed
variables, with the objective to capture the speed dynamics
effectively.
• Each rule R
(j)
, j=1,..., NR corresponds to a particular
category or case, having an IF-THEN description. For those
premise inputs
p
X belonging to
) ( j
A , the wind speed
forecast is determined by the rule output
)
ˆ
( ˆ
c j j
X F y = =ν
.
Hence, the TSK model can be viewed as a collection of the
rules
IF {CASE 1} THEN ( )
c
X F
1
ˆ = ν
IF {CASE 2} THEN ( )
c
X F
2
ˆ = ν

IF {CASE NR} THEN ( )
c NR
X F = νˆ
V. TRAINING PROCEDURE
The purpose of the training process is to adjust the premise
and consequent parameters of the model, so that the E
RMS
error
measure is minimized. Assuming that NP patterns are
included in the training data set, E
RMS
is determined as follows
( )
2
1
1
2
) ( ) (
1
)
`
¹
¹
´
¦
− =

=
NP
k
k
real
k
RMS
y y
NP
E (12)
The premise parameters include the means and standard
deviations of the memberships in the premise part {m
i
l
, σ
i
l
,
i=1,...,NPI, l=1,...,NMF
i
}, while the consequent ones include
the polynomial coefficients of the rule outputs {λ
i
j
, i=1,...,NCI,
j=1, ..., NR}.
Training of the TSK models are usually performed using
gradient based learning algorithms. Noting that the output is a
non-linear function of the model parameters, most often these
algorithms become trapped to local minima, depending on the
initial conditions [11]. This leads to sub-optimal solutions and
models with reduced forecast performance. To overcome the
above drawback, we developed a genetic algorithm based
learning scheme to achieve the training task.
Genetic Algorithms (GAs) [14] are conceptually based on
natural evolution mechanisms. They work simultaneously on a
set of solutions in contrast to other search techniques working
on a single solution [13, 14]. Hence, GAs provide an effective
search tool capable of attaining global optimum solutions. An
important advantage of GAs is that they do not require any
prior knowledge of the search space limitations such as non-
convexities. Furthermore, they adapt easily to a wide range of
optimization problems with minimum algorithmic changes.
The chromosome of an individual is formulated as a
sequence of consecutive genes, each one coding a particular
model parameter, as shown in Fig. 5. Binary coding is
employed with 8-bit resolution per variable.


Fig. 5. Binary chromosome structure including the model parameters.

A population with 50 genotypes is considered which is
randomly initialized. We use the roulette wheel mechanism
[13] for parent selection. A multiple-point crossover and

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mutation operator is used for the reproduction of the
population with the following characteristics:
• Crossover operator is applied with a probability that
adjusts according to the convergence of the population. In that
way, when excessive convergence is noted the crossover
probability is lowered by 10%, while in cases of excessive
divergence the probability increases. A multi-point crossover
scheme (shown in Fig. 6) with 6 crossover points was used for
our problem.
• Mutation operator is applied with a small probability.
This probability adjusts to the convergence of the population
in a similar way to the crossover probability. Because
mutation favors population’s diversity, the mutation
probability is raised when excessive convergence occurs,
while it is lowered when the population shows excessive
diversity. Randomly chosen bits of the offspring genotypes
change from 0 to 1 and vice versa to produce solutions that do
not exist in the parent population.
Linear fitness scaling is used to maintain population
diversity, while the elitism operator is introduced to prevent
the destruction of the population’s best solutions through
crossover and mutation [13].
In addition a new operator tailored to the specific problem
was developed, which in conjunction with the coding is very
effective in helping the system avoid premature convergence
and in addition reduces the training time significantly. This
operator is described below in detail:
• Consecutive Variable Copying Operator (CVCO)
This special operator is applied to the bits of every
chromosome with a fixed probability 10% for each
chromosome. The operator is implemented into 2 phases and
is shown in Fig. 7.
Initially two variables (bit sub-strings representing fuzzy
variables λ) are chosen randomly within the chromosome.

Crossover points
Parent 1
Parent 2
Offspring 1
Offspring 2

Fig. 6: Multi-point crossover scheme.

Chromosome before operator
Variable 1 Variable 2
Chromosome after operator
Chromosome before operator
Variable 1 Variable 2
Chromosome after operator
PHASE1
PHASE2

Fig. 7: Consecutive variable copying operator.


Then the bits of the first variable are copied to the bits of
the second variable and the fitness value of the new
chromosome is evaluated. If it is greater than the fitness value
of the initial chromosome then the new chromosome replaces
the old one inside the population. If not the whole process is
reversed. The bits of the second variable are copied to that of
the first, the new fitness value is evaluated and if it is greater
than the old one a replacement of the chromosome is done. If
none of the above phases give a better fitness the chromosome
is left unchanged.
The power of the new operator comes in combination to the
coding scheme used for the λ fuzzy parameters to which the
operator is applied. Considering the nature of the problem we
can conclude that the future wind speed at the local station is
the result and the sum of all the past wind speeds at the local
and remote stations. The λ parameters set the degree to which
each of these speeds contributes to the speed we want to
calculate. From the above we can conclude that these
parameters must be positive and not negative values.
The number of consequence inputs (past wind speeds) that
we use in order to form the fuzzy rules output can even reach
21 when we use all 3 stations. In this way, the majority of the
λ parameters are very small numbers, so when we add them to
calculate the fuzzy output (prediction) this output (future wind
speed at local station) is small as well (in the range [0, 3]).
The use of the CVCO operator has as result the copying of
one bit string to another. When two variables are chosen
randomly, the one is smaller than the other so when it is
copied to the other the fitness value is most probably better.
With the use of this operator the smaller λ variables
reproduce in the chromosome with almost geometrical, rate
while the fitness value grows equally fast.
Since almost all λ factors are at the optimal solution very
small, this operator decreases the training time in a great
extent and helps locating an optimum solution relatively fast.

7
The genotypes are evaluated on the basis of the fitness
function. The Fitness Function is designed to minimize the
RMS
E error of the training set
Fitness Function =
RMS
E
1
(13)
It can be seen that the chromosome’s fitness function is
maximized when the E
RMS
error becomes minimum. The GA
is allowed to run for a number of generations depending on
the particular experiment. The desired fuzzy model
corresponds to the elite solution obtained by the GA at the
final generation. Upon termination of the training process, the
quality of the obtained model is verified on the testing data
set. While GA training lasts from minutes to some hours,
depending on the size of the measurements database, the on-
line forecasts based on real time measurements are attained in
less than a second.
VI. TEST RESULTS
In order to investigate the effectiveness of the model, many
benchmark tests have been carried out using real data. In an
attempt to illuminate problems encountered in practice, two
quite different application cases will be presented in the
sequel.
A. Flat Terrain Application Around Thessaloniki Gulf.
The area around the Gulf of Thessaloniki, at Northern
Greece (Fig. 8) has a smooth terrain at almost sea level.
Low winds due to sea breeze are considered to be of no
special interest. On the contrary, our model is trying to capture
the strong local winds of N-NW direction, which are
considered as the prevailing event in this area. This is evident
from the wind variations shown in Fig.1, and the scatter
mapping of the data patterns depicted in Fig.9. The
meteorological stations are installed at positions S
1
, S
2
, and S
0

lined along the exact direction of the above winds. The
distances are (S
2
S
0
) = 12 km, (S
1
S
2
) = 27 km and (S
1
S
0
) = = 39
km.
Wind data collected over one year at base and remote
stations, were found to be correlated and statistically similar.

Cross-correlation peak values (for 5-min samples):
0 1
S S
ρ (65 min) = 0.76
0 2
S S
ρ (20 min) = 0.85
Averages :
sec / 46 . 3
1
m
S
= µ
,
sec / 16 . 4
2
m
S
= µ
,
sec / 15 . 4
0
m
S
= µ

Standard deviation (for 5-min samples):
sec / 66 . 2
1
m
S
= σ
,
sec / 44 . 3
2
m
S
= σ
,
sec / 52 . 3
0
m
S
= σ


Fig. 8. Location map of the wind measuring stations around Thessaloniki gulf
area.



Fig. 9. Scatter mapping of training patterns as defined by the two premise
inputs: wind speed and the direction. While we find low winds of all
directions, it is clear that strong winds have a specific direction; they blow on
a narrow North- Northwest band. The mapping of test patterns is similar.

Table II shows the results of several experimental cases.
The % error improvement of our model over the persistence
forecast method is found to be similar for both wind speed and
wind power forecasting. Two premise inputs were used, the
speed (S) and direction (D) of oncoming wind, averaged for
the last 15 minutes.
The number and time frame of the consequence inputs is
selected to cover a reasonable time horizon in the past, as
suggested from auto and cross correlation curves. The
experimental results for this application are, indeed, as
satisfactory as expected, since all the conditions of the
experiment seemed to be ideal. Data from remote stations
improve forecasting accuracy, and their importance grows as
the prediction window extends to the future.


8
TABLE II. Test results for different model configurations with wind data
collected around Thessaloniki gulf area.
30 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 0.769 m/s, 0.0390 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 15.3 20.1
- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 14.2 17.6
- - 6*5 min S, D 13.9 15.5
60 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 0.977 m/s, 0.0462 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 20.8 23.3
- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 21.1 25.6
- - 6*5 min S, D 18.1 20.8
120 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 1.272 m/s, 0.0601 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 25.8 27.5
- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 24.7 26.1
- - 6*5 min S, D 20.6 24.2
240 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 1.555 m/s, 0.0772 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 27.9 28.4
- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 27.4 28.0
- - 6*5 min S, D 24.8 21.9
The initial adjustments of the fuzzy system are random.
After the training has been completed, the system seems to
have successfully captured the local properties previously
described. This is clear for both premise and consequent part
of the fuzzy model. For instance, in the best of the tests
presented at Table II, two fuzzy sets are obtained for wind
direction covering: a) a band around the S
1
S
0
axis, and b) the
rest of cases (Fig. 10). Furthermore, observing the weights of
consequence inputs for each case, one can realize how remote
data become more or less important for two rules concerning
strong and low winds, respectively. This proves the necessity
of fuzzy clustering in the premise space.
B. A Complex terrain application in Eastern Crete
Wind data were collected at a mountainous and most windy
area of Eastern Crete (Sitia). The measurement systems
installed were similar to the ones used in the previous case.
Three synchronized computers were collecting data for a time
period of 8 months. The regional map of Sitia and the location
of the stations are shown in Fig.11.
The distances between the measurement points were
(S
1
S
2
)=5 km, (S
2
S
0
)=14 km and (S
1
S
0
)=18 km.
Cross-correlation peak values (for 5-min samples):
52 . 0
0 1
=
S S
ρ
,
57 . 0
0 2
=
S S
ρ
,
76 . 0
2 1
=
S S
ρ

Averages:
sec / 71 . 4
1
m
S
= µ
,
sec / 54 . 4
2
m
S
= µ
,
sec / 44 . 10
0
m
S
= µ

Standard deviation (for 5-min samples):
sec / 48 . 2
1
m
S
= σ
,
sec / 26 . 2
2
m
S
= σ
,
sec / 71 . 4
0
m
S
= σ



(a)


(b)
Fig. 10. Membership functions for wind speed (a) and wind direction (b), the
two premise inputs of the fuzzy model.



Fig. 11. Map of Sitia region and location of the meauuserement facilities.


9
It should be noted that the area exhibits strong Western
winds (called Etesian winds) that may reach a speed limit of
25 m/sec. These winds blow from the beginning of May until
the end of October; however, they are quite strong and most
frequent from mid July to mid of September. Their peak
magnitude occurs during the evening, gradually turning to
calm at night. It is remarkable to notice that directions of all
winds (low or high) are restricted in a very narrow W-NW
band. The sea breeze also has the same direction, so it is very
difficult to separate it.
The main source of forecasting difficulty is due to the
complexity of the terrain and the altitude difference between
base station (S
0
) and the remote stations (S
1
, S
2
). Cross-
correlation curves are almost flat. Furthermore, there is an
obvious statistical irrelevance between the wind data as shown
in Fig.12.
Forecasting attempts for each one of the three sites
demonstrated that the use of local data is quite enough, while
remote data do not even provide negligible error
improvement, but actually make the forecast worse.
The reasons for the model’s failure are explained as
follows:
• Non-correlation between local and remote wind data.
Although the measurement sites are located along the axis
of the transmission of the wind fronts, the terrain
complexity and altitude difference are crucial factors.
• The winds at the reference site S
0
exhibit remarkable
persistence. There are rarely interesting variations, and
hence the necessity of a spatial correlation model is
degraded. This is a discouraging fact, since the
specifications of site S
0
are typical for wind power
installations.

Wind Speed Distribution Diagrams
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind Speed (m/sec)
%
S1
S2
S0


Fig. 12. Distribution of wind speeds at the three locations S
1
, S
2
and S
0
.
Speeds are similar at S
1
and S
2
(altitudes of 150 to 300 m) and much higher at
site S
0
(altitude 800 m)

Table III shows simulation results where the forecast model
is applied at the reference site S
0
. Prediction is performed for
30, 60 and 120 minutes ahead, using inputs from one, two, or
all three measuring stations. Despite the difficulties discussed
above, the genetic fuzzy spatial correlation model shows
significant improvement as compared to the persistence
method. This is due to better exploitation of local data.


Fig. 13. Wind speed variation for a typical day at the three measurement sites
of Sitia. Low speeds at S
1
and S
2
are almost identical. Wind at site S
0
(thick
line) is rather higher and not relevant.

TABLE III. Prediction test results for the Sitia region.

30 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 0.6429 m/s, 0.0379 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 4.71 4.53
- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 8.39 9.24
- - 6*5 min S, D 8.52 9.5

60 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 0.856 m/s, 0.0493 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 9.81 11.37
- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 12.4 14.01
- - 6*5 min S, D 12.5 14.3

120 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 1.169 m/s, 0.0691)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 18.8 21.2
- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 17.8 19.3
- - 6*5 min S, D 18.9 21.4

240 minutes ahead prediction
(Persistent error: 1.504 m/s, 0.0935 pu)
Number & time Frame of
Consequence Inputs
% Error
Imp
% Error
Imp
Site S
1
Site S
2
Site S
0

Premise
Inputs
Wind Power
6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 17.7 20.7
- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 17.6 20.4
- - 6*5 min S, D 18.2 20.9
VII. CONCLUSIONS
A TSK fuzzy model is developed to perform forecasting of
wind speed and electrical power up to two hours ahead. The
model is trained using a GA-based learning algorithm. Inputs
to the model are wind data that are collected from
neighbouring meteorological stations at a radius up to 30 km.
S1
S2
S0

10
The contribution of the remote data to the derivation of exact
wind forecasts at the reference station is examined at various
application terrain cases. The suggested method provides
significant improvement over the persistent method for a flat
terrain. Its performance is reduced in cases where the terrain is
complex and cross correlation of wind data is particularly low.
In any case, the use of local data is sufficient to give forecasts
10 to 25% better than the persistent method while remote data
assist attaining a further improvement.

VIII. REFERENCES
[1] A. R. Daniel, A. A. Chen, “Stochastic Simulation And Forecasting Of
Hourly Average Wind Speed Sequences In Jamaica”, Solar Energy, Vol.
46, No 1, pp. 1-11, 1991.
[2] S. M. Chan, D. C. Powell, M. Yoshimura, D. H. Curtice, “Operations
requirements of Utilities with Wind Power Generation”, IEEE
Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-102, No. 9,
September 1983.
[3] R. A. Schlueter, G. L. Park, R. Bouwmeester, L. Shu, M. Lotfalian,
P. Rastgoufard, A. Shayanfar, “Simulation and Assessment of Wind
Array Power Variations Based on Simultaneous Wind Speed
Measurements”, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,
Vol. PAS-103, No. 5, pp. 1008-1016, May 1984.
[4] R. A. Schlueter, G. Sigari, A. Costi, “Wind Array Power Prediction For
Improved Operating Economics And Reliability”, IEEE Transactions on
Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-104, No. 7, pp 137-142, July
1985.
[5] R. Corotis, A. Sigl and M. Cohen, “Variance Analysis of Wind
Characteristics for Energy Conversion”, Journal of Applied
Meteorology, Vol. 16, pp. 1149-1157, November 1977.
[6] H. G. Beyer, J. Luther, R. Steinbergerwillms “Power Fluctuations in
Spatially Dispersed Wind Turbine Systems” Solar Energy, Vol. 64, Iss.
4, pp. 297-305, 1993
[7] I. Palomino and F. Martin “A Simple Method for Spatial Interpolation
of the Wind in Complex Terrain” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol.
34, Iss 7, pp. 1678-1693, 1995
[8] M.C. Alexiadis, P.S. Dokopoulos, H.S. Sahsamanoglou, “Wind Speed
and Power Forecasting based on Spatial Correlation Models”, IEEE
Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. PE-437, May 1998.
[9] T. Takagi, M. Sugeno, “Fuzzy identification of systems and its
Applications to Modelling and Control”, IEEE Transactions on systems,
Man and Cybernetics, Vol. SMC, No 1, pp.116-132, Jan-Feb 1985.
[10] P. A Mastorocostas, J. B Theocharis, A. G. Bakirtzis, “Fuzzy
Modeling for Short Term Load Forecasting using the Orthogonal Least
Squares Method”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 14, No.1, pp. 29-
36, Febr. 1999.
[11] J. -S. R. Jang, “ANFIS: Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference
Systems”, IEEE Transactions on systems, Man and Cybernetics, Vol.
23, No 3, pp. 665-685 , May - June 1993.
[12] C.C. Lee, "Fuzzy Logic in Control Systems: Fuzzy Logic Controller-
Part I and II," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, vol.
20, no 2, 1990, pp. 404-435.
[13] D. E. Goldberg, Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and
Machine Learning. New York / USA: Addison-Wesley, 1989.
[14] J. H. Holland, Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems. Ann Arbor,
MI/USA: Mich. Univ. Press, 1975.












IX. BIOGRAPHIES
Ioannis G. Damousis was born in Thessaloniki,
Greece, in April 1974. He received the Dipl. Eng.
Degree from the Department of Electrical and Computer
Engineering at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
in 1997.
Currently he is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department
of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki. His research interests are in
the areas of fuzzy systems and genetic algorithm applications in power
systems. He is a member of the Society of Professional Engineers of Greece.

Minas Alexiadis was born in Thessaloniki in July 1969.
He received the Dipl. Eng. Degree from the Department
of Electrical Engineering at the Aristotle University of
Thessaloniki, Greece in 1994. He is now a Ph.D.
student with the same University. His research fields are
renewable energy sources and artificial intelligence
applications in power systems.



John B. Theocharis graduated as an electrical engineer
from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in 1980.
From 1980 to 1985 he has been with the scientific staff
of the Department of electrical and Computer
engineering where he received the Ph.D. degree in
1985. He is now working as an Associate Professor at
the Department of electronic and computer Engineering
in the same university. His research activities include
fuzzy systems, neural networks, adaptive control and
modelling of complex non-linear systems.


Petros Dokopoulos (M’ 77) was born in Athens,
Greece, in September 1939. He received the Dipl. Eng.
degree from the Technical University of Athens in
1962 and the Ph.D. degree from the University of
Brunswick, Germany, in 1967.
He was with the Laboratory for High Voltage and
Transmission at the University of Brunswick, Germany
(1962- 1967), with the Nuclear Research Center at
Julich, Germany (1967- 1974), and with the Joint
European Torus (1974 - 1978). Since 1978 he has been full professor at the
Department of Electrical Engineering at the Aristotle University of
Thessaloniki, Greece. He has worked as consultant to Brown Boveri and Cie,
Mannheim, Germany, to Siemens, Erlagen, Germany, to Public Power
Corporation, Greece and to National Telecommunication Organization,
Greece.
His scientific fields of interest are dielectrics, power switches, generators,
power cables, alternative energy sources, transmission and distribution and
fusion.