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**Abstract--In this paper, a fuzzy model is suggested for the
**

prediction of wind speed and the produced electrical power at a

wind park. The model is trained using a genetic algorithm based

learning scheme. The training set includes wind speed and

direction data, measured at neighboring sites up to 30 km away

from the wind turbine clusters. Extensive simulation results are

shown for two application cases, providing wind speed forecasts

from 30 minutes to two hours ahead. It is demonstrated that the

suggested model achieves an adequate understanding of the

problem while it exhibits significant improvement compared to

the persistent method.

Keywords: genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic, wind forecasting.

I. INTRODUCTION

Large rapid changes in wind power may cause serious

reduction in operating economy and reliability, especially for

utilities with large wind power penetration (in the Greek

island of Crete it may reach 20 to 40%). Prediction of wind

power, along with load forecasting, permits scheduling the

connection or disconnection of wind turbines or conventional

generators, thus achieving low spinning reserve and optimal

operating cost.

Since wind power is a function of wind speed, power

forecasts are generally derived through wind speed forecasts.

For a single wind turbine, the speed v is transformed to power

P using manufacturers' curves or can be approximated as

follows:

P = 0 for v < v

i

, v > v

o

P = P

r

(v - v

i

) / (v

r

- v

i

) for v

i

< v < v

r

P = P

r

for v

r

< v < v

o

where v

r

, P

r

, are the rated speed and power of the wind

turbine and v

i

, v

o

are the cut - in and cut - out wind speeds.

In the case of a large-scale application, such as a wind farm

comprising a large number of wind-turbines, the lumped

power output is the addition of values sampled at different

points of a spatial field. The available data can be used to

extract a new power curve that connects this lumped power

with the wind speed as measured at one or more reference

points of the farm.

1

I. G. Damousis, M. C. Alexiadis and P. S. Dokopoulos are with the

Electrical Power Systems Laboratory of the Electrical and Computer

Engineering Department in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.

2

J. B. Theocharis is with the Electronic and Computer Engineering

division of the Electrical and Computer Engineering Department in Aristotle

University of Thessaloniki.

In the past, efforts have been made to simulate wind power

variations, mostly by analysing the wind speed time series of a

certain site [1]. Unfortunately, typical statistical properties of

wind speed such as non-stationarity, a slowly decreasing

autocorrelation curve, and weak diurnal variation are not very

helpful. Therefore, prediction for the next 15 minutes to one

hour was practically close to persistent forecast, which

suggests no change from the most recent values.

In that respect, previous research often turned to spatial

correlation studies of wind speeds, not always leading to a

satisfactory model [2]-[4]. A significant correlation of hourly

or daily average speeds has been recognized for distances of

20 to 100 km. Note that the correlation decreases with

distance [5] and topographical elevation difference [6]. It also

decreases when the orientation of the distance vector differs

from the wind direction [7].

One of the above studies [2] regards spatial correlation of

wind turbulence for short distances (700 m to 15 km) and

short time scales (changes of wind speed per 4, 10, 30 min and

also 1-minute deviations from 30-min averaged value). It is

concluded that the correlation coefficients are related to the

wind direction, terrain roughness and height above the

ground.

More significant seem to be Schlueter’s publications since

they present complete correlated echelon models [3, 4]. He

proposes a simple formula on the base that a certain event

propagates from site A to site B, in a certain time ∆τ (the time

for which cross-correlation is maximised) and it is slightly

changed in its shape and amplitude due to local

characteristics. Regarding medium distances, this formula is

applied separately for four meteorological events (cases) that

are typical for the district; it is found adequate to simulate

short time series of a specific event. Local wind data are not

exploited and the model accuracy is not evaluated or checked

on a future similar event.

A recent paper [8] examines the contribution of data from

local and remote sites to forecasting using neural network

models, and suggests a possible way to improve prediction

accuracy.

The present paper introduces a fuzzy model with two

premise variables, the wind speed and direction. The model

parameters are determined using a genetic algorithm. The

model uses training data measured at various stations in and

around the wind park. Thus, the autocorrelation and cross-

correlation between local and remote wind speed time series

are exploited to improve the efficiency of short term

A Fuzzy Model for Wind Speed Prediction and

Power Generation in Wind Parks using Spatial

Correlation

I.G. Damousis

1

, Student Member IEEE, M.C. Alexiadis, J.B. Theocharis

2

, Member IEEE

and P.S. Dokopoulos, Member IEEE

2

forecasting which ranges from a few minutes to several hours

ahead.

II. PROBLEM FORMULATION

Let us consider two sites A (upwind) and B (downwind)

located along the direction of the wind. At a sufficient height

above the ground, we can accept there is a uniform wind

speed field. This is valid for the boundary layer, where winds

are caused by global pressure gradients and remain unaffected

by heat transfer and terrain features. For a considerably short

distance (AB) we may assume a uniform wind speed, above

the two sites, that is

v

A

(t) = v

B

(t) (1)

Any meteorological event arriving at A on time t = 0, may

be realised as a distinct change ∆v in the wind speed. This

event is assumed to propagate with a speed v

A

(t) and is

expected to arrive at B after a time delay proportional to ∆τ:

∆τ = (AB) / v

A

(t) (2)

If v

A

and (AB) vectors are not parallel, instead of (AB), we

may use its projection on wind direction.

∆τ = (AB)

*

v

A

(t) / v

A

2

(t) (3)

This time delay is obviously different for each case

depending on the wind speed and direction.

Close to the surface (15 or 30 m above the ground), wind

field cannot be accepted as uniform. The disturbance

propagation is determined by solving the equations governing

the wind flow (e.g. Navier Stokes), taking into account the

pressure gradient, the boundaries of the terrain, and possibly,

the heat transfer. This method is quite complex while its

efficiency is doubtful for our objectives.

However, it is reasonable to assume that there is some law

of propagation in every case, and a weak or strong relation

exists between speeds at A and B, sited at a certain terrain.

Observing the wind profiles at sites A and B a relationship,

more or less intense, is already established. It seems that speed

v

A

is projected at B with a varying time delay and a certain

change of magnitude. This is demonstrated in Fig.1 where a

typical view of an oncoming front is shown, measured at three

sites. The data used in Fig.1 correspond to an application case

examined later on in detail.

The value τ maximising cross correlation ρ

ΑΒ

is the average

time delay and not the most usual one. Most often it is argued

that it corresponds to one of the prevailing and most frequent

events of the particular area, or even to the algebraic

summation of contradictory events.

Nevertheless, we know that several events appear in the

area under consideration, each one of them resulting to a

respective time delay. For instance, the following cases may

appear:

Case 1: When winds at site A are strong and parallel to

(AB) axis, there is a high correlation between v

A

and v

B

for a

particular time delay (e.g. of about 60 min).

Fig. 1. Typical view of an oncoming front as measured at three sites 1, 2 and

3. The sites are lying along a line 40-km long on the direction of the

propagation of the front. Distances are (Site 1- Site 2) = 27 km, (Site 2-Site 3)

= 12 km.

Case 2: When winds at site A are low, then the winds at site B

are also low; however, there is no particular relation regarding

their fluctuations.

Case 3: When winds are at least medium and they are vertical

to (AB) axis, there is no time delay.

The conclusions drawn above are evident from the cross-

correlation curves depicted in Fig.2. These curves are

extracted separately, using patterns of data that belong to each

one of the above cases.

The following issues should be addressed for an efficient

model that describes the wind propagation process: First,

classify the wind data into several cases considered above.

Then, based on the data clustering, define a relation between

v

A

and v

B

for each case. Such a structure refers to the

IF/THEN rules used in fuzzy systems.

Since the formulation of our problem fits the formalism of

fuzzy propositions, we proceed to developing a fuzzy model

for wind forecasting.

Fig. 2. Auto (A) and cross-correlation (C) curve for wind speeds at two sites

12 km apart. Two pairs of curves are presented concerning: (1) strong NW

winds and (2) low winds of all directions.

3

III. THE FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

Fuzzy logic is a research area based on the principles of

approximate reasoning and computational intelligence. It

departs from classical sets, logic and strict Boolean (True or

False) decisions and assignments. Instead, it uses soft

linguistic variables (e.g. small, medium, large), and a

continuous range of truth-values in the interval [0, 1]. Fuzzy

models are employed in cases where a system is difficult to

model exactly (but an inexact model is available), or

ambiguity and vagueness is encountered in the problem

formulation.

A typical fuzzy system comprises the following key parts:

• A rule base containing a number of IF-THEN rules,

• A decision-making unit, which performs the inference

operations of the rules

• The fuzzification interface which transforms crisp inputs

fuzzy sets that are processed by the fuzzy inference unit,

• The defuzzification interface, that transforms the fuzzy

conclusion providing a crisp output.

Recently, the fuzzy inference system suggested by Takagi,

Sugeno and Kang (TSK fuzzy model) has gained a great

interest in several applications in fuzzy modelling and control.

The TSK fuzzy models consist of linguistic fuzzy rules

represented in the following form:

R

(j)

: IF (x

p,1

is

j

1

A ) AND ... AND (x

p,NPI

is

j

NPI

A )

THEN y

j

= F

j

(x

c,1

, x

c,2

, ..., x

c,NCI

) j=1,...,NR (4)

where NR is the number of fuzzy rules.

The “IF” precondition statements define the premise part

while the “THEN” rule functions constitute the consequent

part of the fuzzy model.

p

X = [x

p,1

, ..., x

p,NPI

]

T

is the input vector to the premise

part comprising NPI input variables.

A

i

j

are labels of fuzzy sets describing linguistically the input

component x

p,i

i = 1, ..., NPI..

c

X = [x

c,1

, ..., x

c,NCI

]

T

denotes the input vector to the

consequent part of R

(j)

containing NCI input variables.

Finally, y

j

= F ) X (

c

represents the j-th rule output which is

generally a crisp function of the input components x

c,i

, i =

1,..., NCI. A special case of particular importance is

encountered when the rule functions are linear polynomials of

the consequent inputs:

∑

=

+ = =

NCI

i

i c

j

i

j

c j

x X F y

1

, 0

) ( λ λ (5)

where

j

i

λ are weight coefficients and

j

0

λ

is a bias term.

The union of all

j

i

λ , i = 1, ..., NCI, j = 1, ..., NR forms the

consequent parameter set.

Each linguistic label

j

i

A is associated with a membership

function ) (

,i p

j

i

x µ . These are usually unimodal functions

(triangular, Gaussian, bell shaped, etc.), taking values in the

interval [0, 1]. In this paper we employ Gaussian type

memberships described by

( )

( )

(

(

¸

(

¸

−

− =

2

2

,

,

2

1

exp ) (

j

i

j

i i p

i p

j

i

m x

x

σ

µ

(6)

where

j

i

m and

j

i

σ are the mean value and the standard

deviation of the membership function, respectively. The

collection of all these parameters

j

i

m ,

j

i

σ , i = 1,..., NPI,

j = 1, ..., NR formulates the premise parameter set.

The firing strength of the rule R

(j)

, representing the degree

to which R

(j)

is excited by a particular premise input vector

p

X , is determined by

∏

=

=

NPI

i

i p

j

i c j

x X

1

,

). ( ) ( µ µ (7)

The antecedent fuzzy sets pertaining to a rule

) ( j

R define a

fuzzy region within the premise space

j

NPI

j j j

A A A × ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ × × =

2 1

) (

A . (8)

Essentially,

) ( j

A represents a multidimensional fuzzy set

with the membership distribution described by (7).

Using the notation above, the TSK rule can be brought in

the following compact form:

( )

c j j

) j (

p

) j (

X F y THEN A is X IF : R = (9)

Given the input vectors

p

X and

c

X , the final output of the

fuzzy model is inferred using the weighted average

defuzzification method [12] as follows

∑

∑

=

=

⋅

=

NR

1 j

p j

NR

1 j

c j p j

) X (

) X ( F ) X (

y

µ

µ

(10)

From the above discussion, it can be seen that the basic

philosophy of the TSK model is to decompose the premise

space into fuzzy regions,

) ( j

A , and approximate the system’s

behaviour in every region by a simple submodel ) X ( F

c

.

Thus, the overall model can be regarded as a fuzzy blending

of linear submodels with simpler structure.

IV. WIND FORECASTING FUZZY MODEL

Our objective is to develop a TSK fuzzy model that

provides future estimates of the wind speed at the reference

site S

0

, based on recent variations of wind speed at

neighbouring sites S

i

, i = 1, ..., NS. Input and output values of

the model are wind speed means in the past, determined over

time intervals of t ∆ minutes.

We employ two data sets, namely, the training and the

testing set. The former data set is used during the

identification process of the fuzzy model while the later one is

used to evaluate the forecast capabilities of the obtained

model. The data sets contain patterns formulated from

historical data, having the following form

| |

REAL PERSISTENT c p

Y Y X X

4

where

p

X and

c

X are the input vectors to the premise and

the consequent part, respectively, Y

PERSISTENT

is the wind speed

prediction based on the persistent method, and Y

REAL

is the real

wind speed at future time instants, as obtained by the

measurements.

A. Selection of the Consequent Inputs

With regard to the model variables, the following notation

is used:

• NI

i

is the number of inputs associated with the

measurement site S

i

. S

0

denotes the local site while S

i

, i = 1,

..., NS denote the remote sites, respectively.

• ∆t

i

is the time frame in minutes used to define the time

intervals over which the wind speed means are determined.

• v

ij

denotes the wind speed observed at site S

i

, averaged

over a time period [t – j ∆t

i

, t - (j - 1) ∆t

i

], j = 1, ..., NI

i

.

• v

00

is the future wind speed mean at site S

0

which is to be

forecasted.

Assuming a common number of inputs per site, NI

i

= NI

and a constant time frame ∆t

i

= ∆t for each site, the wind

speed variables are depicted in Table I.

TABLE I. Notation used for wind speed means from remote sites

Time frame Local

site S

0

Site

S

1

Site

S

2

…

Site

S

NS

[t-∆t, t] v

01

v

11

v

21

… v

NS,1

[t-2∆t, t-∆t] v

02

v

12

v

22

… v

NS,2

… … … … …

[t-NI∆t, t-(NI-1)∆t] v

0,NI

v

1,NI

v

2,NI

… v

NS,NI

Prior research on the subject [8] reveals that the following

observations are valid:

• Different time frames ∆t

i

and number of inputs NI

i

might

be considered for each site.

• For each site S

i

, i=1,...,NS, the interval NI

i

×∆t

i

should

cover a time horizon (eg. 30 minutes or 2 hours), as

dictated by the cross-correlation curve of wind speeds

between S

i

and S

0

.

• The most recent values of the reference site S

0

should

indispensably be considered as consequent input variables.

The consequent input vector includes the wind speed

variables shown in Table I and is formulated as follows

| | | |

T

NI NS NS NI

T

NCI c c c

NS

x x X

, 1 , , 0 1 , 0 , 1 ,

..., , ,..., ..., , ..., ,

0

ν ν ν ν = =

In view of the above definition, the rule output function of

) ( j

R is given by

∑

=

+ = = =

NCI

i

i c

j

i

j

c j j

x X F y

1

, 0

) ( ˆ ˆ λ λ ν (11)

As can be seen from (11), the future wind speed estimate is

determined from the past wind speeds of the sites through a

linear model.

B. Selection of the Premise Inputs

In order to complete the model structure, the NPI premise

inputs x

p,1

, ..., x

p,NPI

should be properly chosen. These are the

decision variables that constitute the premise space. Each

premise variable is described by a certain number of fuzzy

sets covering adequately its universe of discourse.

Fig. 3. Three membership functions ) (

1 , 1 , 1 p

x A , ) (

1 , 2 , 1 p

x A , and ) (

1 , 3 , 1 p

x A

are used to linguistically describe wind speed as: ‘Low’, ‘Medium’, and

‘High’.

Accordingly, the premise space is partitioned into fuzzy

regions

) ( j

A , each one corresponding to a fuzzy rule.

The linguistic description of the inputs is attained using

membership functions of appropriate form. For instance,

assuming the wind speed is a premise input, x

p,1

, we can use

three memberships A

1,1

, A

1,2

and A

1,3

to express the linguistic

propositions that the wind speed is “Low”, “Medium” and

“High”, respectively, as shown in Fig.3. Thus, for a specific

sample x

p,1

= 4 m/s we have

2 . 0 ) x (

1 , p A

1 , 1

= µ , 62 . 0 ) x (

1 , p A

2 , 1

= µ , 0 . 0 ) x (

1 , p A

3 , 1

= µ

In that case, we may say that x

p,1

is categorised as medium

to low wind.

The number of premise inputs should be as small as

possible. A reasonable choice is to select one or two inputs.

This is dictated by our requirement to keep the number of

rules to an acceptably low level. Several methods are

suggested in the literature with the scope to determine the

appropriate inputs from a broad set of candidate inputs [9],

[10]. However, this issue is not addressed here. In this paper,

the decision was taken on the basis of our experience about

the problem under consideration. The following two premise

inputs were selected:

• The wind speed of what is considered to be the oncoming

event. This is the wind speed as measured at the most

remote ‘upwind station’. Among the remote stations S

i

,

i=1,...,NS, surrounding the reference site S

0

, the ‘upwind

station’ is defined as the one such that the axis S

i

-S

0

, is

closest to the direction of the wind. That is, the ‘upwind

station’ is the Eastern remote station if an Eastern wind is

measured there, the Southern station if a Southern wind is

measured there etc.

• The direction of the above-mentioned wind.

The values of wind speed and direction have to be averaged

within a time range of 15 to 30 min, so that a) Turbulence is

extracted, and b) The information concerning the most recent

5

changes is preserved. It should be noted that in practice, the

dominant wind directions we are interested in, may be only

two or even one. In each case, the remote stations must be

located properly, as close as possible to the axis determined by

the direction of the wind fronts.

C. Definition of the Model’s Structure

Having selected the premise and consequent inputs, we

proceed to determining the model structure. This step involves

the following issues:

Premise variable description: Each premise variable x

p,i

,

i=1,...,NPI is linguistically described by means of NMF

i

fuzzy

sets. The collection of these fuzzy sets forms the

corresponding term set: TS

i

= {A

il

, l=1,..., NMF

i

}. In our

experiments, the wind speed and direction are each described

by three Gaussian type memberships.

Determining the number of rules: Following the linguistic

description of the premise inputs given above, the premise

space is divided into fuzzy regions

) ( j

A by taking all

possible combinations of the memberships along each axis.

This leads to a number of

∏

=

=

NPI

i

i

NMF NR

1

rules. In our

case, up to 9 rules may be generated.

Fig. 4. Three membership functions A

i,1

(x

p,i

), A

i,2

(x

p,i

), and A

i,3

(x

p,i

) are used for

each premise input i, to express linguistic properties of wind, ie. ‘low’,

‘medium’, and ‘high’ for wind speed, ‘South- West’, ‘North’, and ‘East-

South’ for wind direction.

With regard to the rule structure considered in this paper,

the following comments are in order:

• Separate input vectors

p

X and

c

X are selected for the

premise and the consequent part, respectively. The premise

input

p

X comprises only two significant components

characterizing the process, thus leading to a small number

of rules and economical TSK models. On the contrary, the

consequent input

c

X contains a rich set of past wind speed

variables, with the objective to capture the speed dynamics

effectively.

• Each rule R

(j)

, j=1,..., NR corresponds to a particular

category or case, having an IF-THEN description. For those

premise inputs

p

X belonging to

) ( j

A , the wind speed

forecast is determined by the rule output

)

ˆ

( ˆ

c j j

X F y = =ν

.

Hence, the TSK model can be viewed as a collection of the

rules

IF {CASE 1} THEN ( )

c

X F

1

ˆ = ν

IF {CASE 2} THEN ( )

c

X F

2

ˆ = ν

…

IF {CASE NR} THEN ( )

c NR

X F = νˆ

V. TRAINING PROCEDURE

The purpose of the training process is to adjust the premise

and consequent parameters of the model, so that the E

RMS

error

measure is minimized. Assuming that NP patterns are

included in the training data set, E

RMS

is determined as follows

( )

2

1

1

2

) ( ) (

1

)

`

¹

¹

´

¦

− =

∑

=

NP

k

k

real

k

RMS

y y

NP

E (12)

The premise parameters include the means and standard

deviations of the memberships in the premise part {m

i

l

, σ

i

l

,

i=1,...,NPI, l=1,...,NMF

i

}, while the consequent ones include

the polynomial coefficients of the rule outputs {λ

i

j

, i=1,...,NCI,

j=1, ..., NR}.

Training of the TSK models are usually performed using

gradient based learning algorithms. Noting that the output is a

non-linear function of the model parameters, most often these

algorithms become trapped to local minima, depending on the

initial conditions [11]. This leads to sub-optimal solutions and

models with reduced forecast performance. To overcome the

above drawback, we developed a genetic algorithm based

learning scheme to achieve the training task.

Genetic Algorithms (GAs) [14] are conceptually based on

natural evolution mechanisms. They work simultaneously on a

set of solutions in contrast to other search techniques working

on a single solution [13, 14]. Hence, GAs provide an effective

search tool capable of attaining global optimum solutions. An

important advantage of GAs is that they do not require any

prior knowledge of the search space limitations such as non-

convexities. Furthermore, they adapt easily to a wide range of

optimization problems with minimum algorithmic changes.

The chromosome of an individual is formulated as a

sequence of consecutive genes, each one coding a particular

model parameter, as shown in Fig. 5. Binary coding is

employed with 8-bit resolution per variable.

Fig. 5. Binary chromosome structure including the model parameters.

A population with 50 genotypes is considered which is

randomly initialized. We use the roulette wheel mechanism

[13] for parent selection. A multiple-point crossover and

6

mutation operator is used for the reproduction of the

population with the following characteristics:

• Crossover operator is applied with a probability that

adjusts according to the convergence of the population. In that

way, when excessive convergence is noted the crossover

probability is lowered by 10%, while in cases of excessive

divergence the probability increases. A multi-point crossover

scheme (shown in Fig. 6) with 6 crossover points was used for

our problem.

• Mutation operator is applied with a small probability.

This probability adjusts to the convergence of the population

in a similar way to the crossover probability. Because

mutation favors population’s diversity, the mutation

probability is raised when excessive convergence occurs,

while it is lowered when the population shows excessive

diversity. Randomly chosen bits of the offspring genotypes

change from 0 to 1 and vice versa to produce solutions that do

not exist in the parent population.

Linear fitness scaling is used to maintain population

diversity, while the elitism operator is introduced to prevent

the destruction of the population’s best solutions through

crossover and mutation [13].

In addition a new operator tailored to the specific problem

was developed, which in conjunction with the coding is very

effective in helping the system avoid premature convergence

and in addition reduces the training time significantly. This

operator is described below in detail:

• Consecutive Variable Copying Operator (CVCO)

This special operator is applied to the bits of every

chromosome with a fixed probability 10% for each

chromosome. The operator is implemented into 2 phases and

is shown in Fig. 7.

Initially two variables (bit sub-strings representing fuzzy

variables λ) are chosen randomly within the chromosome.

Crossover points

Parent 1

Parent 2

Offspring 1

Offspring 2

Fig. 6: Multi-point crossover scheme.

Chromosome before operator

Variable 1 Variable 2

Chromosome after operator

Chromosome before operator

Variable 1 Variable 2

Chromosome after operator

PHASE1

PHASE2

Fig. 7: Consecutive variable copying operator.

Then the bits of the first variable are copied to the bits of

the second variable and the fitness value of the new

chromosome is evaluated. If it is greater than the fitness value

of the initial chromosome then the new chromosome replaces

the old one inside the population. If not the whole process is

reversed. The bits of the second variable are copied to that of

the first, the new fitness value is evaluated and if it is greater

than the old one a replacement of the chromosome is done. If

none of the above phases give a better fitness the chromosome

is left unchanged.

The power of the new operator comes in combination to the

coding scheme used for the λ fuzzy parameters to which the

operator is applied. Considering the nature of the problem we

can conclude that the future wind speed at the local station is

the result and the sum of all the past wind speeds at the local

and remote stations. The λ parameters set the degree to which

each of these speeds contributes to the speed we want to

calculate. From the above we can conclude that these

parameters must be positive and not negative values.

The number of consequence inputs (past wind speeds) that

we use in order to form the fuzzy rules output can even reach

21 when we use all 3 stations. In this way, the majority of the

λ parameters are very small numbers, so when we add them to

calculate the fuzzy output (prediction) this output (future wind

speed at local station) is small as well (in the range [0, 3]).

The use of the CVCO operator has as result the copying of

one bit string to another. When two variables are chosen

randomly, the one is smaller than the other so when it is

copied to the other the fitness value is most probably better.

With the use of this operator the smaller λ variables

reproduce in the chromosome with almost geometrical, rate

while the fitness value grows equally fast.

Since almost all λ factors are at the optimal solution very

small, this operator decreases the training time in a great

extent and helps locating an optimum solution relatively fast.

7

The genotypes are evaluated on the basis of the fitness

function. The Fitness Function is designed to minimize the

RMS

E error of the training set

Fitness Function =

RMS

E

1

(13)

It can be seen that the chromosome’s fitness function is

maximized when the E

RMS

error becomes minimum. The GA

is allowed to run for a number of generations depending on

the particular experiment. The desired fuzzy model

corresponds to the elite solution obtained by the GA at the

final generation. Upon termination of the training process, the

quality of the obtained model is verified on the testing data

set. While GA training lasts from minutes to some hours,

depending on the size of the measurements database, the on-

line forecasts based on real time measurements are attained in

less than a second.

VI. TEST RESULTS

In order to investigate the effectiveness of the model, many

benchmark tests have been carried out using real data. In an

attempt to illuminate problems encountered in practice, two

quite different application cases will be presented in the

sequel.

A. Flat Terrain Application Around Thessaloniki Gulf.

The area around the Gulf of Thessaloniki, at Northern

Greece (Fig. 8) has a smooth terrain at almost sea level.

Low winds due to sea breeze are considered to be of no

special interest. On the contrary, our model is trying to capture

the strong local winds of N-NW direction, which are

considered as the prevailing event in this area. This is evident

from the wind variations shown in Fig.1, and the scatter

mapping of the data patterns depicted in Fig.9. The

meteorological stations are installed at positions S

1

, S

2

, and S

0

lined along the exact direction of the above winds. The

distances are (S

2

S

0

) = 12 km, (S

1

S

2

) = 27 km and (S

1

S

0

) = = 39

km.

Wind data collected over one year at base and remote

stations, were found to be correlated and statistically similar.

Cross-correlation peak values (for 5-min samples):

0 1

S S

ρ (65 min) = 0.76

0 2

S S

ρ (20 min) = 0.85

Averages :

sec / 46 . 3

1

m

S

= µ

,

sec / 16 . 4

2

m

S

= µ

,

sec / 15 . 4

0

m

S

= µ

Standard deviation (for 5-min samples):

sec / 66 . 2

1

m

S

= σ

,

sec / 44 . 3

2

m

S

= σ

,

sec / 52 . 3

0

m

S

= σ

Fig. 8. Location map of the wind measuring stations around Thessaloniki gulf

area.

Fig. 9. Scatter mapping of training patterns as defined by the two premise

inputs: wind speed and the direction. While we find low winds of all

directions, it is clear that strong winds have a specific direction; they blow on

a narrow North- Northwest band. The mapping of test patterns is similar.

Table II shows the results of several experimental cases.

The % error improvement of our model over the persistence

forecast method is found to be similar for both wind speed and

wind power forecasting. Two premise inputs were used, the

speed (S) and direction (D) of oncoming wind, averaged for

the last 15 minutes.

The number and time frame of the consequence inputs is

selected to cover a reasonable time horizon in the past, as

suggested from auto and cross correlation curves. The

experimental results for this application are, indeed, as

satisfactory as expected, since all the conditions of the

experiment seemed to be ideal. Data from remote stations

improve forecasting accuracy, and their importance grows as

the prediction window extends to the future.

8

TABLE II. Test results for different model configurations with wind data

collected around Thessaloniki gulf area.

30 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 0.769 m/s, 0.0390 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 15.3 20.1

- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 14.2 17.6

- - 6*5 min S, D 13.9 15.5

60 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 0.977 m/s, 0.0462 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 20.8 23.3

- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 21.1 25.6

- - 6*5 min S, D 18.1 20.8

120 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 1.272 m/s, 0.0601 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 25.8 27.5

- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 24.7 26.1

- - 6*5 min S, D 20.6 24.2

240 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 1.555 m/s, 0.0772 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6 * 20 min 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 27.9 28.4

- 6*10 min 6*5 min S, D 27.4 28.0

- - 6*5 min S, D 24.8 21.9

The initial adjustments of the fuzzy system are random.

After the training has been completed, the system seems to

have successfully captured the local properties previously

described. This is clear for both premise and consequent part

of the fuzzy model. For instance, in the best of the tests

presented at Table II, two fuzzy sets are obtained for wind

direction covering: a) a band around the S

1

S

0

axis, and b) the

rest of cases (Fig. 10). Furthermore, observing the weights of

consequence inputs for each case, one can realize how remote

data become more or less important for two rules concerning

strong and low winds, respectively. This proves the necessity

of fuzzy clustering in the premise space.

B. A Complex terrain application in Eastern Crete

Wind data were collected at a mountainous and most windy

area of Eastern Crete (Sitia). The measurement systems

installed were similar to the ones used in the previous case.

Three synchronized computers were collecting data for a time

period of 8 months. The regional map of Sitia and the location

of the stations are shown in Fig.11.

The distances between the measurement points were

(S

1

S

2

)=5 km, (S

2

S

0

)=14 km and (S

1

S

0

)=18 km.

Cross-correlation peak values (for 5-min samples):

52 . 0

0 1

=

S S

ρ

,

57 . 0

0 2

=

S S

ρ

,

76 . 0

2 1

=

S S

ρ

Averages:

sec / 71 . 4

1

m

S

= µ

,

sec / 54 . 4

2

m

S

= µ

,

sec / 44 . 10

0

m

S

= µ

Standard deviation (for 5-min samples):

sec / 48 . 2

1

m

S

= σ

,

sec / 26 . 2

2

m

S

= σ

,

sec / 71 . 4

0

m

S

= σ

(a)

(b)

Fig. 10. Membership functions for wind speed (a) and wind direction (b), the

two premise inputs of the fuzzy model.

Fig. 11. Map of Sitia region and location of the meauuserement facilities.

9

It should be noted that the area exhibits strong Western

winds (called Etesian winds) that may reach a speed limit of

25 m/sec. These winds blow from the beginning of May until

the end of October; however, they are quite strong and most

frequent from mid July to mid of September. Their peak

magnitude occurs during the evening, gradually turning to

calm at night. It is remarkable to notice that directions of all

winds (low or high) are restricted in a very narrow W-NW

band. The sea breeze also has the same direction, so it is very

difficult to separate it.

The main source of forecasting difficulty is due to the

complexity of the terrain and the altitude difference between

base station (S

0

) and the remote stations (S

1

, S

2

). Cross-

correlation curves are almost flat. Furthermore, there is an

obvious statistical irrelevance between the wind data as shown

in Fig.12.

Forecasting attempts for each one of the three sites

demonstrated that the use of local data is quite enough, while

remote data do not even provide negligible error

improvement, but actually make the forecast worse.

The reasons for the model’s failure are explained as

follows:

• Non-correlation between local and remote wind data.

Although the measurement sites are located along the axis

of the transmission of the wind fronts, the terrain

complexity and altitude difference are crucial factors.

• The winds at the reference site S

0

exhibit remarkable

persistence. There are rarely interesting variations, and

hence the necessity of a spatial correlation model is

degraded. This is a discouraging fact, since the

specifications of site S

0

are typical for wind power

installations.

Wind Speed Distribution Diagrams

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 5 10 15 20 25

Wind Speed (m/sec)

%

S1

S2

S0

Fig. 12. Distribution of wind speeds at the three locations S

1

, S

2

and S

0

.

Speeds are similar at S

1

and S

2

(altitudes of 150 to 300 m) and much higher at

site S

0

(altitude 800 m)

Table III shows simulation results where the forecast model

is applied at the reference site S

0

. Prediction is performed for

30, 60 and 120 minutes ahead, using inputs from one, two, or

all three measuring stations. Despite the difficulties discussed

above, the genetic fuzzy spatial correlation model shows

significant improvement as compared to the persistence

method. This is due to better exploitation of local data.

Fig. 13. Wind speed variation for a typical day at the three measurement sites

of Sitia. Low speeds at S

1

and S

2

are almost identical. Wind at site S

0

(thick

line) is rather higher and not relevant.

TABLE III. Prediction test results for the Sitia region.

30 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 0.6429 m/s, 0.0379 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 4.71 4.53

- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 8.39 9.24

- - 6*5 min S, D 8.52 9.5

60 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 0.856 m/s, 0.0493 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 9.81 11.37

- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 12.4 14.01

- - 6*5 min S, D 12.5 14.3

120 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 1.169 m/s, 0.0691)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 18.8 21.2

- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 17.8 19.3

- - 6*5 min S, D 18.9 21.4

240 minutes ahead prediction

(Persistent error: 1.504 m/s, 0.0935 pu)

Number & time Frame of

Consequence Inputs

% Error

Imp

% Error

Imp

Site S

1

Site S

2

Site S

0

Premise

Inputs

Wind Power

6*20 min 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 17.7 20.7

- 6*20 min 6*5 min S, D 17.6 20.4

- - 6*5 min S, D 18.2 20.9

VII. CONCLUSIONS

A TSK fuzzy model is developed to perform forecasting of

wind speed and electrical power up to two hours ahead. The

model is trained using a GA-based learning algorithm. Inputs

to the model are wind data that are collected from

neighbouring meteorological stations at a radius up to 30 km.

S1

S2

S0

10

The contribution of the remote data to the derivation of exact

wind forecasts at the reference station is examined at various

application terrain cases. The suggested method provides

significant improvement over the persistent method for a flat

terrain. Its performance is reduced in cases where the terrain is

complex and cross correlation of wind data is particularly low.

In any case, the use of local data is sufficient to give forecasts

10 to 25% better than the persistent method while remote data

assist attaining a further improvement.

VIII. REFERENCES

[1] A. R. Daniel, A. A. Chen, “Stochastic Simulation And Forecasting Of

Hourly Average Wind Speed Sequences In Jamaica”, Solar Energy, Vol.

46, No 1, pp. 1-11, 1991.

[2] S. M. Chan, D. C. Powell, M. Yoshimura, D. H. Curtice, “Operations

requirements of Utilities with Wind Power Generation”, IEEE

Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-102, No. 9,

September 1983.

[3] R. A. Schlueter, G. L. Park, R. Bouwmeester, L. Shu, M. Lotfalian,

P. Rastgoufard, A. Shayanfar, “Simulation and Assessment of Wind

Array Power Variations Based on Simultaneous Wind Speed

Measurements”, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,

Vol. PAS-103, No. 5, pp. 1008-1016, May 1984.

[4] R. A. Schlueter, G. Sigari, A. Costi, “Wind Array Power Prediction For

Improved Operating Economics And Reliability”, IEEE Transactions on

Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-104, No. 7, pp 137-142, July

1985.

[5] R. Corotis, A. Sigl and M. Cohen, “Variance Analysis of Wind

Characteristics for Energy Conversion”, Journal of Applied

Meteorology, Vol. 16, pp. 1149-1157, November 1977.

[6] H. G. Beyer, J. Luther, R. Steinbergerwillms “Power Fluctuations in

Spatially Dispersed Wind Turbine Systems” Solar Energy, Vol. 64, Iss.

4, pp. 297-305, 1993

[7] I. Palomino and F. Martin “A Simple Method for Spatial Interpolation

of the Wind in Complex Terrain” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol.

34, Iss 7, pp. 1678-1693, 1995

[8] M.C. Alexiadis, P.S. Dokopoulos, H.S. Sahsamanoglou, “Wind Speed

and Power Forecasting based on Spatial Correlation Models”, IEEE

Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. PE-437, May 1998.

[9] T. Takagi, M. Sugeno, “Fuzzy identification of systems and its

Applications to Modelling and Control”, IEEE Transactions on systems,

Man and Cybernetics, Vol. SMC, No 1, pp.116-132, Jan-Feb 1985.

[10] P. A Mastorocostas, J. B Theocharis, A. G. Bakirtzis, “Fuzzy

Modeling for Short Term Load Forecasting using the Orthogonal Least

Squares Method”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 14, No.1, pp. 29-

36, Febr. 1999.

[11] J. -S. R. Jang, “ANFIS: Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference

Systems”, IEEE Transactions on systems, Man and Cybernetics, Vol.

23, No 3, pp. 665-685 , May - June 1993.

[12] C.C. Lee, "Fuzzy Logic in Control Systems: Fuzzy Logic Controller-

Part I and II," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, vol.

20, no 2, 1990, pp. 404-435.

[13] D. E. Goldberg, Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and

Machine Learning. New York / USA: Addison-Wesley, 1989.

[14] J. H. Holland, Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems. Ann Arbor,

MI/USA: Mich. Univ. Press, 1975.

IX. BIOGRAPHIES

Ioannis G. Damousis was born in Thessaloniki,

Greece, in April 1974. He received the Dipl. Eng.

Degree from the Department of Electrical and Computer

Engineering at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

in 1997.

Currently he is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department

of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the Aristotle

University of Thessaloniki. His research interests are in

the areas of fuzzy systems and genetic algorithm applications in power

systems. He is a member of the Society of Professional Engineers of Greece.

Minas Alexiadis was born in Thessaloniki in July 1969.

He received the Dipl. Eng. Degree from the Department

of Electrical Engineering at the Aristotle University of

Thessaloniki, Greece in 1994. He is now a Ph.D.

student with the same University. His research fields are

renewable energy sources and artificial intelligence

applications in power systems.

John B. Theocharis graduated as an electrical engineer

from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in 1980.

From 1980 to 1985 he has been with the scientific staff

of the Department of electrical and Computer

engineering where he received the Ph.D. degree in

1985. He is now working as an Associate Professor at

the Department of electronic and computer Engineering

in the same university. His research activities include

fuzzy systems, neural networks, adaptive control and

modelling of complex non-linear systems.

Petros Dokopoulos (M’ 77) was born in Athens,

Greece, in September 1939. He received the Dipl. Eng.

degree from the Technical University of Athens in

1962 and the Ph.D. degree from the University of

Brunswick, Germany, in 1967.

He was with the Laboratory for High Voltage and

Transmission at the University of Brunswick, Germany

(1962- 1967), with the Nuclear Research Center at

Julich, Germany (1967- 1974), and with the Joint

European Torus (1974 - 1978). Since 1978 he has been full professor at the

Department of Electrical Engineering at the Aristotle University of

Thessaloniki, Greece. He has worked as consultant to Brown Boveri and Cie,

Mannheim, Germany, to Siemens, Erlagen, Germany, to Public Power

Corporation, Greece and to National Telecommunication Organization,

Greece.

His scientific fields of interest are dielectrics, power switches, generators,

power cables, alternative energy sources, transmission and distribution and

fusion.

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