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Southwestern University (A) Report

As a consultant of Southwestern University, below is my report on the case analysis.
Analysis of the Case:
Bob Hill wants a confidence of at least 75% that the project will be completed before the 270
th
day
If confidence is less than 75% then the project will be crashed.
Mr. Hill wants to see a comparison for target dates of 240 and 250 days along the cost difference.
1. Identify activity durations
2. Construct a network diagram
3. Determine the probability of completion in less than 270 days
4. If required crash project to desired duration and calculate additional cost to the project.

Table 1:

Expected activity time (t) : t= (o+4m+p)/6
Variance of activity completion time:
Variance = ((p-o)/6)
2

Excel OM project management software has been used to analyze the case and results are as follows:

The Estimates (Days)
o m p
Activity Description Preccessor(s) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Time Variance Crash (cost/day)
A. Bonding, insurance, tax structuring 20 30 40 30 11.1 1,500
B. Foundation, concrete footings for boxes A 20 65 80 60 100 3,500
C. Upgrading skybox, stadium seating A 50 60 100 65 69.4 4,000
D. Upgrading walkways, stairwells, elevators C 30 50 100 55 136.1 1,900
E. Interior wiring, lathes B 25 50 35 30 2.8 9,500
F. Inspection approvals E 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 0 0
G. Plumbing D, E 25 30 35 30 2.8 2,500
H. Painting G 10 20 30 20 11.1 2,000
I. Hardware/AC/metal workings H 20 25 60 30 44.4 2,000
J. Tile/carpeting/windows H 8 10 12 10 0.4 6,000
K. Inspection J 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 0 0
L. Final detail work/cleanup I, K 20 25 60 30 44.4 4,500
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Table 2

Therefore from the above analysis, the critical path using the expected time is:
Activity A (30 days) -> Activity C (65 days) -> Activity D (55 days) -> Activity G (30 days)
-> Activity H (20 days) -> Activity I (30 days) -> Activity L (30 days).
Expected Days of Completion: 260 days.
Project Variance (from Table 1) = 11.1111+69.4444+136.1111+2.7778+11.1111+44.4444+44.4444
= 319.4443

Project Standard Deviation = (319 .4443)
= 17.87 days

Project Management Precedences; 1 time estimate For Expected Time Estimate
Data Immediate Predecessors (1 per column)
Activity Time Pred 1 Pred 2
A 30
B 60 A
C 65 A
D 55 C
E 30 B
F 1 E
G 30 D E
H 20 G
I 30 H
J 10 H
K 1 J
L 30 I K
Results
Activity
Early
Start Early Finish
Late
Start
Late
Finish Slack
A 0 30 0 30 0
B 30 90 60 120 30
C 30 95 30 95 0
D 95 150 95 150 0
E 90 120 120 150 30
F 120 121 259 260 139
G 150 180 150 180 0
H 180 200 180 200 0
I 200 230 200 230 0
J 200 210 219 229 19
K 210 211 229 230 19
L 230 260 230 260 0
Project 260
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
L
K
J
I
H
G
F
E
D
C
B
A
Time
Gantt Chart
Critical Activity Noncritical Activity Slack
Enter the times in the appropriate column(s). Enter the precedences, one per column. (Do not try to
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To determine the confidence level for the project:
Z = (due date expected date)/Proj Std Deviation
= (270 260)/ 17.87
= 0.5595
p(Z > .5595) = 0.71226 or 71.3 %
Thus, there is 71.3% chance that the expansion of the on-campus stadium can be accomplished in 260
days.
If Expected Date of completion is 250 days. Inputting the values in the above formula,
We get, Z = 86.6%

If Expected Date of completion is 240 days. Inputting the values in the above formula,
We get, Z = 95.26%

To be able to crash to 250 days,
Crash A for 10 days down to 20 days
10 days*\$1,500 = \$15,000
Total Extra Cost = \$15,000
To be able to crash to 240 days,
First to crash is activity A, this has the lowest cost of \$1,500. The duration of activity A can only be
reduced by 10 days maximum; thus cost of \$1,500 multiplied by 10 is \$15,000.
The next one to be crashed is activity D which has the cost of \$1,900. Crash D for 10 days down to 10
days; thus cost of \$1,900 multiplied by 10 is \$19,000.
Total cost = \$34,000

Points to be noted:
In order to crash the project to 250 days, task A can be reduced by 10 days which will have an
additional cost of \$15,000 with an 86% chance that the project will be completed by 270th day.
To crash the project to 240 days, both tasks A and D can be reduced by 10 days that would
create an additional cost of \$34,000 for the project and increase the chance for completion to
95%.
There is a 71.23% chance that the stadium will be in place with the 270 day deadline
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