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Arur Ja|||ey W||| oe preser||rg ||s ra|der ur|or 8udge| as l|rarce ||r|s|er or ||e 10|| ol Ju|y.

T|e l|rs| 8udge| ol ||e |od|-|ed N0A goverrrer| W||| oe a |eer|y Wa|c|ed, as |o| ol expec|a||ors |ave
oeer ou||| arourd ||. lr lac|, ||e l|rarc|a| ard ecoror|c roadrap ||a| ||e goverrrer| W||| del|re |r ||s
oudge| |s ||e very oas|s or W||c| ||e 8Jl-|ed N0A a|||arce |as core |o poWer. T|e pas| |er years |ave
oeer ra||er pa|rlu| lor ||e lrd|ar ecorory. T|e 00l groW|| |ad s|ac|ered |o ser|ous|y Worr|sore |eve|s,
||e lrd|ar currercy urderWer| |o| ol deprec|a||or oW|rg |o poor |r|erra||ora| |rade, ||g| |rl|a||orary
pressures |ad resu||ed |r ||g|er |r|eres| ra|es ard overa|| ous|ress ser||rer|s |ad ||| a rad|r. we lrd|ars
|r gerera| |ave a pecu||ar ra|ure. we expec| a persor assur|rg a puo||c oll|ce |o Wor| |rs|ar|areous
Worders, ard ||a| crea|es |uge pressure ol ||e ||rd ||a| Tear |od| |s currer||y W||ress|rg. T|ere are a
coup|e ol |||rgs ||a| We |ave |o rereroer ard porder over. 0re, ||ere |s ro rag|c Ward |r ||e |ards ol
goverrrer| ||a| car oe Waved |o ge| over ||e d|ll|cu|| ecoror|c s||ua||or We are currer||y r|red |r. TWo,
ore |as |o core |o |errs W||| |ars| dec|s|ors ard reasures ||a| ||e goverrrer| W||| |ave |o |a|e |o ||de
over ||e ecoror|c d|ll|cu|||es ard or|rg ||e ecorory oac| or |rac|.
IMPORT DUTY ON SUGAR JACKED UP TO 40 PER CENT, OTHER INCENTIVES FOLLOW SUIT
lr a rajor ooos| |o cruro||rg sugar sec|or, goverrrer| |as |rcreased |rpor| du|y or sugar lror
15 per cer| |o 40 per cer|. 3eer as a o|g re||el |o sugar r|||ers, W|o are a|ready ree||rg urder care pr|ces
pressure, ||e goverrrer|'s rove W||| sure|y or|rg sore c|eers |o ||e |rdus|ry. lood r|r|s|er bar v||as
lasWar |oo| ||e dec|s|or |r |||s regard recer||y a| a ||g| |eve| ree||rg. lr add|||or |o |||s r|||ers are a|so
g|ver leW o||er oerel||s |o core ou| ol Woods.
T|ese |rc|ude ex|ers|or |r sugar expor| |rcer||ves |||| 3ep|eroer 2014 ard |||e |r ||r|| ol e||aro|
o|erd|rg W||| pe|ro| |o 10 per cer|. A|so sugar r|||ers W||| ge| add|||ora| |r|eres| lree |oar up |o `4400 crore,
ou| lor ||a| ||ey l|rs| |ave |o repay larrers dues Wor|| over bs11000 crore. lrdus|ry p|ayers roW expec|
pr|ces |o go up oy a| |eas| `3-4 per |g |r ||e dores||c rar|e|. lr lac| soor al|er ||e dec|s|or pr|ces |ave
oeer jac|ed oy `2 per |g |r 0e||| ard |uroa| rar|e|s. los| |||s dec|s|or sugar s|oc|s saW a decer| spur|
or ||e oourses.
Wholesle P!"#e I$%e& 'WPI( A) F"*e Mo$)h H"+h
T|e arrua| ra|e or |rl|a||or oased or ror|||y w|o|esa|e lr|ce lrdex (wll) lor ||e ror|| ol |ay
s|ood a| o.01, as corpared |o 5.20 lor ||e prev|ous ror|| ard 4.58 dur|rg ||e correspord|rg ror||
ol ||e prev|ous year. T|e |rl|a||or lor ||e ror|| ol |ay Was a| a l|ve ror|| ||g|. T|e ou||d up |o ||e
|rl|a||or |r ||e l|rarc|a| year so lar Was 0.78 as corpared |o ou||d up ra|e ol 0.7o |r ||e correspord|rg
per|od ol ||e prev|ous year.
Accord|rg |o ||e da|a re|eased |oday, lood |rl|a||or |r ||e pr|rary ar||c|es W||c| |ave a |o|a|
We|g||age ol 20.12 |r ||e wll oas|e| |as |rcreased |o 9.5 |r |ay aga|rs| 8.o4 |r ||e ror|| ol Apr||
2014. lrcrease |r ||e ra|e ol |rl|a||or |r lru||s (19.40), egg, rea| & l|s| (12.47), o|| seeds (4.82) ard
r|rera|s (8.84) |ed ||e |rl|a||or |o |rcrease |r ||e pr|rary ar||c|es.
lrl|a||or |r lue| & poWer W||c| |as a |o|a| We|g||age ol 14.9 |r ||e wll oas|e| |as |rcreased or
a ror|||y oas|s. l| |as augrer|ed lror 8.93 |r ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 |o 10.53 lor ||e ror|| ol |ay
2014. lr|ce ol pe|ro| |as cor||rued |o |rcrease ard || s|ood a| 12.28 |r ||e ror|| ol |ay as aga|rs|
7.77 |r ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014. T|e ||quel|ed pe|ro|eur gas pr|ces |ave rodera|ed, W|||e ||e ||g| speed
d|ese| pr|ces |ave |rcreased |r ||e sare per|od.
T|e |rl|a||or ol rarulac|ured produc|s W||c| |as a |o|a| We|g||age ol arourd o5 |as arp||l|ed
lror 3.15 |r ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 |o 3.55 lor ||e ror|| ol |ay 2014. lrl|a||or |r Wood ard paper
produc|s |as |rcreased |o 7.48 ard o.47 aga|rs| 5.o9 ard 4.42 respec||ve|y lor ||e ror|| ol |ay
as corpared |o ||e prev|ous ror||. w|||e ||e |rl|a||or |r ||e |ror & ser|s |ave a|so |rcreased |o 4.08
aga|rs| 2.32 dur|rg Apr|| 2014.
A|||oug| Cll |as s|oWr sore s|grs ol rodera||or |r ||e ror|| ol |ay, ||e core |rl|a||or ard wll
|as rera|red a| e|eva|ed |eve|s, ro| s|oW|rg ary s|grs ol rodera||or. T|e core |rl|a||or |as r|ser |o 3.8
lror 3.4 |r ||e prev|ous ror||. T|erelore, We car say ||a|, as ||e wll ard core |rl|a||or |s |rcreas|rg
ard as ||e |oor|rg ellec| ol la||s|orr ard F| N|ro |s ye| |o oe seer, We dor'| see ary ra|e cu|s oy ||e b8l
|r ||e cor|rg days.
M!,e) Re-o!). N"/)0 Sl12-s )o 4 Mo$)h Lo3
T|e oe||er |rdus|r|a| |rdex ol produc||or (lll) ard |rprov|rg |rl|a||or l|gures Were ro| ao|e |o |a|e
||e |rd|ces |o aro||er ||le ||re ||g| |eve| |oday. T|e 3ersex |oday c|osed a| 25228 doWr oy 348 po|r|s
lror ||s prev|ous c|ose. T||s |s ||e o|gges| la|| s|rce Jaruary 27 ol |||s year. T|e sare |rerd lo||oWed |r
N|l|y as We||, || c|osed doWr oy 107 oas|s po|r|s as corpared |o ||s prev|ous c|ose a| bs 7542. T||s cou|d
oe or accour| ol prol|| ooo||rg |a||rg p|ace |r d|llerer| sec|ors. T|e 83F rea||y |as seer ||e rax|rur
se|||rg pressure la|||rg oy rore ||ar 5, W|||e ||e o||er sec|ors W||c| lo||oWed Were loWer, |e|a|s, 8ar|,
Cap||a| 0oods ard 0||& 0as, W||c| le|| oy arourd 3.
T|e o||er reasor Was due |o |rsurgercy |r lraq, W||c| |s ore ol ||e |arges| o|| produc|rg cour|ry.
T|e 3urr| |rsurger|s ol ||e ls|ar|c 3|a|e ol lraq ard 3yr|a (l3l3) over rar ||e ror||err lraq| c||y ol T||r||,
W||c| a|ore |os|s a 300,000 oarre| per day rel|rery. 0ue |o |||s ||e orer| crude o|| |oday ||| a r|re ror||
||g|, rear u30 115 per oarre|. l| |s a| ||e ||g|es| |eve| s|rce 3ep|eroer. T||s |oo |as |rpac|ed ||e lrd|ar
s|are rar|e|s ard espec|a||y o|| ard gas sec|or. 3|ares ol rel|rery corpar|es |||e 8lCl, llCl ard l0C
|as s||pped oy arourd 5-8.
T|e rupee |as s|ar|ed |o deprec|a|e roW. Today rupee aga|rs| do||ar |as c|osed a| 59.o7 per do||ar
as aga|rs| 59.25 or T|ursday, doWr oy 42 pa|se. As lrd|a |rpor|s arourd 75 ol ||s crude o|| derard ard
as ||e rupee |s deprec|a||rg, |||s W||| pu| rore pressure or ||e rupee.
3o lror ||e aoove We car say ||a| as ||e |rves|ors |ave s|ar|ed |o ooo| prol||s ard |||s ray |ead
||e |rd|ces |o la|| lur||er |r ||e cor|rg days.
IIP N124e!s. A Pos")"*e S"+$ O/ Th"$+s To Co2e
Al|er lavourao|e |rpor|-expor| da|a lrd|ar s|oc| rar|e| |as ore rore reasor |o c|eer as ||e lrdex
ol lrdus|r|a| lroduc||or (lll) ruroers lor ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 |as s|oWr s|grs ol |rproverer|. T|e
gerera| |rdex lor ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 s|ards a| 172.1, W||c| |s 3.4 ||g|er as corpared |o ||e |eve| |r
||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2013. T|e curu|a||ve groW|| lor ||e per|od Apr||-|arc| 2013-14 over ||e correspord|rg
per|od ol ||e prev|ous year recorded rega||ve groW|| ol 0.1.
T|e |rd|ces ol lrdus|r|a| lroduc||or lor ||e r|r|rg, rarulac|ur|rg ard e|ec|r|c||y sec|ors lor ||e
ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 s|ards a| 122.0, 180.7 ard 178.1 respec||ve|y, W||| ||e correspord|rg groW|| ra|es ol
1.2, 2.o ard 11.9 as corpared |o Apr|| 2013. loWever, ||e curu|a||ve groW|| |r ||ese ||ree sec|ors
dur|rg Apr||-|arc| 2013-14 over ||e correspord|rg per|od ol 2012-13 |as oeer (-) 0.o, (-) 0.8 ard o.1
respec||ve|y. l| |as oeer ooserved ||a| e|ec|r|c||y sec|or |as ra|r|a|red ||s groW|| ra|e |r |||s quar|er a|so.
lr |errs ol |rdus|r|es, 14 ou| ol ||e 22 |rdus|ry groups |r ||e rarulac|ur|rg sec|or |ave s|oWr
pos|||ve groW|| dur|rg ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 as corpared |o ||e correspord|rg ror|| ol ||e prev|ous
year. T|e |rdus|ry group e|ec|r|ca| rac||rery ard appara|us |as s|oWr ||e ||g|es| pos|||ve groW|| ol
oo.0, lo||oWed oy 9.o |r rac||rery ard equ|prer| ard 9.1 |r |ooacco produc|s. 0r ||e o||er |ard,
||e |rdus|ry group 'rad|o, Tv ard corrur|ca||or equ|prer|s & appara|us, |as s|oWr ||e ||g|es| rega||ve
groW|| ol 31.o, lo||oWed oy 22.1 |r Wear|rg appare|, dress|rg ard dye|rg ol lur ard 14.o |r ro|or
ve||c|es, |ra||ers & ser|-|ra||ers.
As per user-oased c|ass|l|ca||or, ||e groW|| ra|es |r Apr|| 2014 over Apr|| 2013 are o.8 |r oas|c
goods, 15.7 |r cap||a| goods ard 4.4 |r |r|erred|a|e goods. T|e corsurer durao|es ard corsurer
ror-durao|es |ave recorded rega||ve groW|| ol 7.o ard 3.3 respec||ve|y, W||| ||e overa|| groW|| |r
corsurer goods oe|rg rega||ve a| 5.1.
3ore ol ||e |rpor|ar| ||ers s|oW|rg ||g| pos|||ve groW|| dur|rg ||e currer| ror|| over ||e sare
ror|| |r prev|ous year |rc|ude cao|e, ruooer |rsu|a|ed (2o7.1), copper ard copper produc|s (75.4),
ayurved|c red|carer|s(70.4), sugar (|rc|ud|rg sugar cuoes), (53.1), |ea||er garrer|s (45.5),
s|a|r|ess| a||oy s|ee| (39.4), c|gare||es (31.3), s|ee| s|ruc|ures (29.1), scoo|er ard ropeds, (28.0),
|erry |oWe|s (27.7) ard o|ax|a| or|er|ed po|ypropy|ere (80ll) l||rs (27.2).
I$/l)"o$ I$ The Mo$)h O/ M0 Eses To 56758
TWo |rpor|ar| reWs arrourcerer|s Were rade yes|erday al|er ||e rar|e| |ours. 0re Was Cll
lor ||e ror|| ol |ay ard ||e o||er Was lll da|a lor ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014. Al|er a |org ||re, ||e da|a
s|oWed sore pos|||v||y, W|ere ||e produc||or |as |rcreased ard ||e |rl|a||or |as decreased a| ||e sare
||re. T|e lrdus|r|a| lrdex ol lroduc||or (lll) da|a lor ||e ror|| ol Apr|| 2014 Was a| 172.1 as corpared |o
1oo.5 dur|rg |arc| 2014. T||s rears ||a| or year|y oas|s ||e lll |as surged oy 3.4.
T|e Corsurer lr|ce lrdex (Cll) lor ||e ror|| ol |ay s|ards a| 8.28, rarg|ra||y |oWer lror
8.59 |r Apr||. lrov|s|ora| l|gures sugges|ed ||a| |rl|a||or |r rura| uroar areas |as seer sore s|grs ol
eas|rg oll. T|e |rl|a||or |r ||e rura| areas |as reduced oy 2o oas|s po|r|s s|ard|rg |o 10.27, W|||e |r case
ol uroar areas ||e |rl|a||or |as cor|rac|ed oy 37 oas|s po|r|s s|ard|rg |o 8.35 lor ||e ror|| ol |ay 2014.
T|oug| ||e |rl|a||or |r ||e ror|| ol |ay |as s|oWr sore s|gr ol |rproverer| ||e lood, oeverage
ard |ooacco segrer| |as surged oy 0.91 |r ||e ror|| ol |ay as corpared |o ||e prev|ous ror|| ol |||s
l|sca| year. lr ||e lood oeverage segrer| vege|ao|es Was ||e corrod||y W||c| rose oy 3.5 |r ||e ror||
ol |ay as corpared |o ||e ror|| ol Apr||. T|e corrod||y W||c| |e|ped ||e |rl|a||or |o rera|r urder
cor|ro| Was cerea| ard o|| & la|s. T|e lue| & ||g|| group dur|rg ||e ror|| ol |ay |as rera|red l|a| as
corpared |o Apr|| 2014.
lror ||e aoove We car say ||a| ||e ecorory |as s|ar|ed |o s|oW sore s|gr ol |rproverer|. 0r
ore s|de ||e |rl|a||or Was urder cor|ro| ard or ||e o||er s|de ||e produc||or |as |rcreased. 8u| s|||| ||e
|rl|a||or |s |oo ||g| |.e. || rore ||ar 8. Ard as ||e ||ar|l crops Were des|royed due |o adverse Wea||er
ra|r|y due |o la||s|orr, ||e |rpac| ol F| N|ro |s ye| |o oe seer. T|erelore, We dor'| see ary ra|e cu| oy
b8l |r rear lu|ure.
R9I Kee-s Ke0 Pol"#0 R)es U$#h$+e%
T|e b8l |ave core ou| W||| ||s secord 8|-|or|||y |ore|ary lo||cy 3|a|erer| or Jure 03, 2014. T|e
||g|||g||s ol ||e po||cy are as lo||oWs.
Kep| ||e po||cy repo ra|e urder ||e ||qu|d||y adjus|rer| lac||||y (lAl) urc|arged a| 8.0 per cer|,
Cas| reserve ra||o (Cbb) ol sc|edu|ed oar|s urc|arged a| 4.0 per cer| ol re| derard ard ||re
||ao|||||es (N0Tl),
beduce ||e s|a|u|ory ||qu|d||y ra||o (3lb) ol sc|edu|ed correrc|a| oar|s oy 50 oas|s po|r|s lror
23.0 per cer| |o 22.5 per cer| ol ||e|r N0Tl W||| ellec| lror ||e lor|r|g|| oeg|rr|rg Jure 14, 2014,
beduce ||e ||qu|d||y prov|ded urder ||e expor| cred|| rel|rarce (FCb) lac||||y lror 50 per cer| ol
e||g|o|e expor| cred|| ou|s|ard|rg |o 32 per cer| W||| |rred|a|e ellec|,
lr|roduce a spec|a| |err repo lac||||y ol 0.25 per cer| ol N0Tl |o corpersa|e lu||y lor ||e reduc||or
|r access |o ||qu|d||y urder ||e FCb W||| |rred|a|e ellec|, ard
Cor||rue |o prov|de ||qu|d||y urder 7-day ard 14-day |err repos ol up |o 0.75 per cer| ol N0Tl ol
||e oar||rg sys|er.
T|e reverse repo ra|e urder ||e lAl W||| rera|r urc|arged a| 7.0 per cer|, ard ||e rarg|ra| s|ard|rg
lac||||y (|3l) ra|e ard ||e 8ar| ba|e a| 9.0 per cer|.
lr ||e re|ease ||e cer|ra| oar| |as rer||ored ||a| ||e |ead |rd|ca|ors po|r| |o cor||ru|rg s|ugg|s|ress
|r dores||c ecoror|c ac||v||y |r ||e l|rs| quar|er ol 2014-15. T|e ou||oo| lor agr|cu||ure |s c|ouded oy ||e
re|eoro|og|ca| depar|rer|'s lorecas|s ol a de|ay |r ||e orse| ol ||e sou||-Wes| rorsoor W||| a o0 per cer|
c|arce ol ||e occurrerce ol F| N|ro. T|e orgo|rg cor|rac||or |r ||e produc||or ol corsurer durao|es ard
cap||a| goods, coup|ed W||| rodera||or |r corpora|e sa|es ard ror-o|| ror-go|d |rpor|s, |s |rd|ca||ve ol
cor||ru|rg Wea|ress |r oo|| corsurp||or ard |rves|rer| derard. l| |as a|so rer||ored ||a| ||e dec|s|ve
e|ec||or resu||, |oge||er W||| |rproved ser||rer| s|ou|d, |oWever, crea|e a corduc|ve erv|rorrer| lor
corpre|ers|ve po||cy ac||ors ard a rev|va| |r aggrega|e derard as We|| as a gradua| recovery ol groW||
dur|rg ||e course ol ||e year.
be|a|| |rl|a||or reasured oy ||e corsurer pr|ce |rdex (Cll) |rcreased lor ||e secord corsecu||ve
ror|| |r Apr||, pus|ed up oy a s|arp sp||e |r lood |rl|a||or, espec|a||y |r ||e pr|ces ol lru||s, vege|ao|es,
sugar, pu|ses ard r|||. Cll |rl|a||or exc|ud|rg lood ard lue| |as rodera|ed gradua||y s|rce 3ep|eroer
2013 a|||oug| || |s s|||| e|eva|ed.
lor ||e year 2013-14 as a W|o|e, lrd|a's currer| accour| del|c|| (CA0) rarroWed s|arp|y |o 1.7 per cer|
ol 00l, pr|rar||y or accour| ol a dec||re |r go|d |rpor|s, a|||oug| o||er ror-o|| |rpor|s a|so cor|rac|ed
W||| ||e Wea|er|rg ol dores||c derard, ard ||ere Was sore p|c|-up |r expor|s. lr Apr|| 2014, ||e |rade
del|c|| rarroWed s|arp|y due |o resurp||or ol expor| groW|| al|er |Wo corsecu||ve ror||s ol dec||re, ard
||e orgo|rg s|r|r||rg ol |rpor| derard. boous| |rl|oWs ol por|lo||o |rves|rer|, suppor|ed oy lore|gr d|rec|
|rves|rer| ard ex|erra| correrc|a| oorroW|rgs, |ep| ex|erra| l|rarc|rg cord|||ors corlor|ao|e ard |e|ped
add |o reserves.
T|e beserve 8ar| rera|rs corr|||ed |o |eep|rg ||e ecorory or a d|s|rl|a||orary course, |a||rg Cll
|rl|a||or |o 8 per cer| oy Jaruary 2015 ard o per cer| oy Jaruary 201o. ll ||e ecorory s|ays or |||s
course, lur||er po||cy ||g||er|rg W||| ro| oe Warrar|ed. 0r ||e o||er |ard, |l d|s|rl|a||or, adjus||rg lor oase
ellec|s, |s las|er ||ar currer||y ar||c|pa|ed, || W||| prov|de |eadroor lor ar eas|rg ol ||e po||cy s|arce.
w||| a v|eW |o |rprove ||e dep|| ard ||qu|d||y |r ||e dores||c lore|gr exc|arge rar|e|, || |as oeer
dec|ded |o a||oW lore|gr por|lo||o |rves|ors |o par||c|pa|e |r ||e dores||c exc|arge |raded currercy
der|va||ves rar|e| |o ||e ex|er| ol ||e|r urder|y|rg exposures p|us ar add|||ora| u3$ 10 r||||or.
lur||errore, || |as a|so oeer dec|ded |o a||oW dores||c er||||es s|r||ar access |o ||e exc|arge |raded
currercy der|va||ves rar|e|. 0e|a||ed opera||rg gu|de||res W||| oe |ssued separa|e|y.
I$%"$ E#o$o20 GDP G!o3)h )o see 2o%es) "2-!o*e2e$)
With a recovery in manufacturing activities, economic growth expected to pick this year
|odera||or ol groW|| ol ||e lrd|ar Fcorory over ||e pas| year |s a per||rer| corcerr or ||e
Wea|er|rg ol ecoror|c lurdarer|a|s lor ||e cour|ry. 3|ruc|ura| oo|||erec|s, s|oW po||cy roverer|,
s|uooorr |r|eres| ra|es or accour| ol ||g| |rl|a||or, dec||r|rg expor|s, |oW ror-lood cred|| groW||, dec||r|rg
|rdus|r|a| groW|| ard suodued derard lor oo|| corsurp||or ard |rves|rer| |as |ed |o ||e sys|era||c
dec||re |r ||e overa|| ecoror|c groW|| ol ||e cour|ry |r l13 W||c| W||| oe a| ||e |eve| projec|ed oy ||e
C30 a| 5.0. 0roW|| |as |erce oeer |e|d up |||s year or oo|| ||e supp|y ard derard lror|s W||c| |as
|rpeded ary p|c|-up |r ac||v||y. l| ray oe reco||ec|ed ||a| We s|ar|ed ||e year W||| ar assurp||or ol
upWards ol 7.5 00l groW|| lor ||e year ard ||e pa|| lo||oWed |as oeer qu||e d|llerer| lror W|a| Was
expec|ed.
0roW|| |as cors|s|er||y rodera|ed quar|er al|er quar|er, lror 5.5 |r 1 l13 |o 5.3 |r 2 l13 ard |o
4.5 |r 3 l13. T|e s|grs ava||ao|e lor ||e lour|| quar|er do ro| |oo| very d|llerer| ard a s|gr|l|car|
p|c|up |s ro| expec|ed.
T|e C30 |r ||s advarce es||ra|e |rd|ca|es groW|| |o se|||e a| 5.0 |r l13, |||s Wou|d pr|rar||y oe dr|ver
oy groW|| |r serv|ces. 0|ver ||a| agr|cu||ura| ac||v||y |as |a|er a se|oac| aga|rs| de|ayed rorsoors, ard
|rdus|r|a| ac||v||y W||| ||r||ed cap||a| |rves|rer|s |as oeer suodued so lar, groW|| expec|a||ors lror ||ese
sec|ors are ro| ||g|.
We e&-e#) +!o3)h )o !e*"*e +!%1ll0 +o"$+ "$)o )he $e&) /"s#l: 3")h $ es)"2)e /o! GDP +!o3)h o/
;6<8 = >608 "$ FY?46
This expectation would ride on the back of normal monsoons giving a good harvest, increase in
investments in a favourable interest rate regime and gradual recovery in industrial production. Above all it is
assumed that the government will expedite projects that have been held up and also start spending on
capital projects, which has hitherto been held up on account of fiscal constraints. This will also be
supported by affirmative action by the !", though the timing could be more during the second half of the
year.
#urther it is assumed that the government will focus more on policies that do not re$uire legislative
approval in order to revive the growth process and that while one can hope for important bills to be moved
in the %arliament, the assumption here is that this may not happen and in terms of policy, the situation
would largely be a status $uo.
A+!"#1l)1!e )o !e*e!) )o $o!2l )!@e#)o!0
&arvest to be strong, against the back of normal monsoons and pro'farm pricing announcements
T|e e|ever|| l|ve year p|ar (2007-12) W||ressed ar average arrua| groW|| ol 3.o |r ||e
agr|cu||ure ard a|||ed ac||v|||es sec|or, W|er corpared W||| a |arge| ol 4.0 dur|rg ||e per|od. 0roW|| |r
|||s sec|or |as ro| or|y la||er s|or| ol ||e sa|d |arge| ou| |as a|so oeer ||g||y urever. 0roW|| |r l11 Was
as ||g| as 7.9, al|er rear s|agra||or |r ||e prev|ous |Wo years, lo||oWed oy |oWer groW|| ra|es |r l12
ard l13.
Agr|cu||ura| produc||or |as oeer adverse|y |rpac|ed oy de|ayed ard urever rorsoors |r l13.
lroduc||or ol a|| rajor agro-corrod|||es suc| as lood gra|rs, o||seeds, co||or ard sugarcare |as
W||ressed rega||ve groW||, |r par||cu|ar, lood gra|rs produc||or |s expec|ed |o dec||re oy 3.5 |r l13.
w||| ||e rev|sed lood secur||y o||| proposed recer||y, ||e requ|rerer| ol lood gra|rs |s es||ra|ed |o
oe approx|ra|e|y o2 r||||or |orres. T||s requ|rerer| ray oe jux|aposed aga|rs| ||e oll-|a|e ol lood gra|rs
oy ||e goverrrer| lor puo||c d|s|r|ou||or ard o||er var|ous sc|eres (||e ||g|es| oll |a|e |as oeer arourd
5o r||||or |orres |r ||e |as| l|ve years). T||s add|||ora| pressure car oe re| ||roug| |Wo sources -
progress|ve |rcrease |r procurerer| quar|||y ol lood gra|rs over ||e years (approx. o4 r||||or |orres |r
l13, as ol 0ec 2012) ard lror ||e currer| s|oc| ava||ao|e W||| lood Corpora||or ol lrd|a (o2.8 r||||or
|orres, as or |arc| 1, 2013). T|e gap oe|Weer requ|rerer| urder lood 3ecur||y ard l03 (exc|ud|rg
o||er prograrres) cou|d oe |r ||e reg|or ol 10-15 rr |orres W||c| car oe re| lror ||e ex|s||rg s|oc|s
W||| ||e lCl.
lr |errs ol po||cy ac||ors, We expec| ||e goverrrer| |o cor||rue W||| ||s pro-larr po||cy s|arce ||a|
|| |r|||a|ed |r ur|or 8udge| 2013-14. T|e 8udge| proposed |o se| ar agr|cu||ura| cred|| |arge| ol up |o bs.
700,000 crore a|org W||| a cor||rua||or ol |oWer larr |r|eres| ra|e (a| 7.0) ard |r|eres| ra|e suover||or ol
3.0 lor prorp| pay|rg larrers. T|e |r|eres| suover||or sc|ere Was lur||er ex|erded lor crop |oars
oorroWed lror pr|va|e sec|or sc|edu|ed correrc|a| oar|s, ||ereoy or|rg|rg rore larrers urder ||e
purv|eW ol l|rarc|a| ass|s|arce. 0o|rg lorWard, We expec| ar |rcrease |r ||r|rur 3uppor| lr|ces (|3l) |r
||e pre-e|ec||or per|od |o ersure rerurera||ve pr|ces |o groWers lor ||e|r produce W||| a v|eW |o ercourage
||g|er |rves|rer| ard produc||or.
W")h se*e!l 2es1!es ),e$ 40 )he +o*e!$2e$) )o "2-!o*e /lo3 o/ +!"A#!e%"), )he!e "s $
e&-e#))"o$ o/ 2o!e -!oA#)"*e so3"$+ )h) #o1l% 4oos) +!o3)h "$ +!"#1l)1!l se#)o! )o B608 "$
FY?46 loWever, |||s groW|| rera|rs cor||rger| upor rorra| rorsoors ||a| |rpac|s oo|| soW|rg ard
|arves| dur|rg ||e year.
I$%1s)!0 )o !e*"*e
With increase in consumption demand and higher capital investments, industrial activity is
expected to improve
0ece|era||or |r |rdus|r|a| groW|| |as oeer ev|der| lror ||e cors|s|er| |oW groW|| |r ||e |rdex ol
|rdus|r|a| produc||or (lll) ooserved over ||e ror||s. Cor|rac||or |r ||e r|r|rg ard rarulac|ur|rg sec|ors
|as oeer ra||er prorourced.
0ur|rg l13 (per|od Apr-Jar), overa|| |rdus|r|a| produc||or greW oy 1.0, W||| r|r|rg reg|s|er|rg
rega||ve groW|| ard rarulac|ur|rg reg|s|er|rg rear zero groW||. F|ec|r|c||y a|ore reg|s|ered roous| groW||
ol 4.7 ard Was ||e pr|re dr|ver ol lll, |||s |oo appears |o |ave |os| s|ear |r leoruary, go|rg oy
produc||or ruroers ol ||e core |rdus|r|es.
wea|ress |r produc||or |r ||e rarulac|ur|rg sec|or |as lur||er, oeer accer|ua|ed oy vo|a|||||y |r
cap||a| goods produc||or corsequer| or |oWer |eve| ol cap||a| |rves|rer|s. 0ross l|xed cap||a| lorra||or
(0lCl, used as a proxy |o |rves|rer|s) |r l13 (Apr-0ec) s|ood a| 29.7 ol 00l, |oWer ||ar 31.0 |r
||e correspord|rg per|od |r l12. Cap||a| goods produc||or |as accord|rg|y cor|rac|ed |r l13 (oy 9.3
dur|rg ||e per|od Apr-Jar).
We e&-e#) "$%1s)!"l #)"*")0 )o -"#, 1- "$ FY?4 $% +!o3 40 460 = ;608 3")h 2"$"$+
-!o@e#)e% )o +!o3 40 4o1) 7608, ele#)!"#")0 40 C608 $% 2$1/#)1!"$+ #)"*")"es "$ )he !$+e o/ 460
= ;6086 This improvement in industrial sector would be aided by an increase in government approvals for
project investments that are currently in the pipeline and recovery in exports as global demand picks. Also
the two successive low base years will provide some modicum of buoyancy. &igher farm incomes and
lower interest rates are expected to improve household spending, thereby providing demand'side push to
industrial production as private consumption revives. The period post August would be critical for the
fructification of these numbers as consumer spending pick up normally at this time.
Mo%e!)"o$ "$ "$/l)"o$ )o #o$)"$1e "$ FY?4
Average annual inflation is likely to ease further in #()* on account of decline in food inflation due
to high base effect and assumption of normal monsoons that will ensure a normal harvest. The easing of
core inflation due to lower+stable domestic and global demand conditions to put some downward pressure.
&owever, the tendency for ,-%s to be increased every year, will continue to exercise pressure on food
prices, and hence will come in the way of inflation moderation. Also the stance on diesel and .%/ subsidy
will have a bearing on the movement in prices of fuel prices.
Al|er |Wo years ol ||g| |rl|a||or |r l11 ard l12, ||e overa|| |rl|a||or or average arrua| oas|s
rodera|ed |o 7.4 |r l13 (Apr-leo). l|g| lood |rl|a||or (9.9) ard lue| |rl|a||or (10.4) |ave |ep|
upWard pressure.
T|e ||g|er pr|ces ol lood ar||c|es |s a||r|ou|ed |o supp|y-s|de oo|||erec|s W|||e |rcrease |r lue|
pr|ces |ave resu||ed lror ror|||y rev|s|ors |r d|ese| pr|ces, |rpac||rg ||e |rarspor| cos| ard pr|ces ol
corrod|||es. A|so ||e ra||ora||za||or ol suos|dy or ll0 |as |ad ||s |rpac| or lue| |rl|a||or.
Corsequer||y, Cll |rl|a||or, ol W||c| lood ar||c|es lorr a rajor por||or ol ||e oas|e|, s|ood aoove
||e 10.0 rar|. 0r ||e o||er |ard, core |rl|a||or rodera|ed oe|oW ||e 4 |eve| or accour| ol ru|ed
g|ooa| ard dores||c derard cord|||ors ard s||d|rg g|ooa| pr|ces.
0vera|| |rl|a||or |s expec|ed |o rodera|e |r l14, a|||oug| cour|erva|||rg lorces lror ar |rcrease
|r r|r|rur suppor| pr|ce (|3l) s|a|| res|r|c| ||e dec||re. He%l"$e WPI "s e&-e#)e% )o se))le "$ )he
!$+e o/ >608 = >6;8 '*e!+e( $% CPI "$/l)"o$ )o 5608 = <608 '*e!+e( %1!"$+ )he 0e!6
9$,"$+ #)"*")0 )o !e*e!) )o !el)"*el0 h"+he! )!@e#)o!0
ecovery in the industrial activities will provide a boost to banking activities0 with growth in credit
picking up in #()*
F|eva|ed oorroW|rg cos|s |r ||e oac|drop ol ||g| |r|eres| ra|es coup|ed W||| |oW derard
cord|||ors |as pressured groW|| |r cred|| oll-|a|e |r l13 |o 14.1 W|er corpared W||| 17 lor ||e
correspord|rg per|od |r l12.
0roW|| |r cred|| |s gerera||y ||r|ed |o 00l ard |o es|ao||s| ||e sare, a regress|or ara|ys|s |as
oeer perlorred |ere. T|e regress|or ol oar| cred|| or 00l a|ds |r gaug|rg groW|| |r oar| cred|| reeded
|o ac||eve expec|ed 00l groW|| ol 5.9 - o.0. T|e regress|or ara|ys|s oe|Weer oar| cred||,
00l,|agged 00l ard |r|eres| ra|e reg|re s|oWs ||a| or|y 00l |s s|gr|l|car| W|||e |r|eres| ra|e reg|re ard
|agged 00l are ro|. Res1l)s /!o2 )he !e+!ess"o$ sho3 )h) /o! >608 +!o3)h "$ GDP, 4$, #!e%")
$ee%s )o +!o3 "$ )he !$+e o/ ?>6;8 = ?C6086
0roW|| |r depos||s lor l|rarc|a| year so lar |as oeer a| 14.3 as aga|rs| 13.5 |as| year. T|ere
|as oeer a dece|era||or |r groW|| ol derard depos||s |rd|ca||rg ||a| corpora|es are us|rg up ||e|r cas|
oa|arces, aga|rs| ||g| |r|eres| ra|e oac|drop. A !e+!ess"o$ o/ "$#!e2e$)l %e-os")s o$ "$#!e2e$)l
$o2"$l GDP $% "$#!e2e$)l %o2es)"# s*"$+s "$%"#)es %e-os") +!o3)h /o! FY?4 )o 4e "$ )he
!$+e ?4608 = ?;608 4se% o$ )hese !el)"o$s6 Ar add|||ora| po|r| |o |oo| ou| lor |||s year Wou|d oe
b8l's rore|ary po||cy s|arce ||a| |as pr|rar||y oeer |rl|uerced oy |rl|a||or ruroers. T|e b8l |as oeer
lo||oW|rg ar ar||-|rl|a||orary po||cy s|arce s|rce ear|y 2010.
loWever, |r l13 b8l reduced |ey |r|eres| ra|es oy 100 ops lror 8.5 |o 7.5 or groW||
corcerrs. w||| ||e average |rl|a||or expec|ed |o dec||re |o o.5 |r l14, b8l |s expec|ed |o reduce |ey
|r|eres| ra|es oy 50 ops po|r|s |r ||e currer| l|sca| as a groW||-or|er|ed po||cy reasure. T|e ||r|rg W|||
deperd or ||e roverer| ol |rl|a||or as We|| as ||e progress or ||e CA0 lror| W||c| |s preser||y pu|||rg
pressure or b8l ro| |o |oWer ra|es |r order |o a||rac| lore|gr cap||a|.
I$#!ese% 9o!!o3"$+s )o %!"*e P!"2!0 C-")l M!,e)s
With improvements in growth prospects as well as continuation of #"" flows0 investor confidence
and investment climate are set to receive a fillip
Fx||o|| 4 s|oWs ||e roverer| ol pr|rary cap||a| rar|e|s |r lrd|a. Fqu||y |ssuarces (ll0, ll0,
0l3) |ave l|uc|ua|ed aga|rs| vo|a|||e equ||y rar|e|s. 0eo| |ssuarce or ||e o||er |ard, preser|ed a
cor|ras||rg p|c|ure. lr ||e deo| segrer|, W|||e pr|va|e p|acerer|s d|d cor||rue |o |rcrease, ||e puo||c
|ssues Were doWr as seer |r Fx||o|| 4 (o).
Corpora|es are expec|ed |o approac| equ||y rar|e|s |||s year |o ra|se rorey. lrproved
ser||rer|s Wou|d dr|ve up s|oc| rar|e|s y|e|d|rg oe||er va|ua||ors lor corpar|es. ur|or 8udge| 2013-14
|oo, expec|s bs 55,000 crore ol reverue |rl|oWs ||roug| ||e d|s|rves|rer| rou|e W||c| Wou|d oe cor||rger|
or ||e s|oc| rar|e|. 0|ver ||e ||g|er expec|ed par||c|pa||or ||r||s lor llls |r oo|| corpora|e ard
|rlras|ruc|ure deo|, as We|| as ||e opera||rg ol l0ls, ||e deo| rar|e| cou|d W||ress |e|g||ered ac||v||y |||s
year. 8u| a |o| W||| deperd or |oW ||e overa|| ecoror|c erv|rorrer| |urrs ou| as ary o|g ||c|e| |rves|rer|
||a| Warrar|s lurd|rg W||| |oo| a| ||e oroader p|c|ure. 0overrrer| experd||ure or projec|s ard grea|er
pro||lera||or ol lll projec|s cou|d prov|de sore |rpe|us |ere. A|so ||e ||r|rg ol |r|eres| ra|e dec||res
Wou|d oe cr|||ca| lor po|er||a| |rves|ors |r ||e area ol |rlras|ruc|ure. T|erelore, |e|g||ered ac||v||y |r |||s
sec|or ray ro| oe expec|ed dur|rg ||e year, a|||oug| ||e progress W||| oe gradua|.
S)o#, M!,e)s ho3e*e!, )o !e2"$ s)4le
ecovery in domestic and global macro'economic scenario coupled with relatively stable corporate
profitability to boost trading activity against enhanced appetite for risk
Al|er oe|rg suodued |r l12 ard lor ros| par| ol l13, s|oc| rar|e|s |ave oegur ar upWard
rove. |overer| ol s|oc| rar|e|s |r l14 Wou|d oe |rl|uerced oy rary dores||c ard g|ooa| lac|ors. 0r
||e dores||c lror|, groW||-|rl|a||or |rerds, roverer| ol exc|arge ra|e ard currer| accour| del|c||, po||cy
c|arges ard po||||ca| s|ao||||y |r ||e Wa|e ol ||e 2014 0erera| F|ec||ors Wou|d oe rajor de|err|rar|s.
T|ese lac|ors Wou|d |rcrease vo|a|||||y |r ||e rar|e|. 0|ooa| deve|oprer|s |r ||e u3 ard Furo-zore cou|d
oe po|er||a| s|resses exogerous|y |rpac||rg lrd|ar cap||a| rar|e|s.
0esp||e ex|rareous r|s|s, lrd|ar equ||y rar|e|s |ave |r ||e |as| leW years ererged as ar a||rac||ve
|rves|rer| des||ra||or. lrdeed, ecoror|c ard l|rarc|a| proo|ers |r deve|oped ecoror|es |ave caused
rorey |o l|oW |r|o cour|r|es suc| as lrd|a ||a| |ave oeer reg|s|er|rg corpara||ve|y oe||er groW|| ra|es.
lrd|ar rar|e|s are W|de|y regarded |o oe dr|ver oy lll |rl|oWs. T|ere |as oeer a |org preva|||rg
ard s|rorg corre|a||or oe|Weer lll |rl|oWs ard s|oc| rar|e| roverer|s a| 0.83.
lr l13, lll equ||y gross purc|ases corpr|sed rear|y 2o ol ||e |o|a| cas| rar|e| |urrover ol ||e
|Wo ra|r exc|arges (83F ard N3F) ard lll equ||y gross sa|es accour|ed lor 22 ol |o|a| |urrover. T|e
|rerd |r ||e prev|ous years |oo |as oeer or s|r||ar ||res. lr par||cu|ar, deo| (o0 ol lll l|oWs) |as core |o
dor|ra|e |r recer| ||res W|er corpared W||| equ||y |rl|oWs, W||c| |ave oeer vo|a|||e due |o g|ooa|
urcer|a|r|y. lur||er, W||| |rcrease |r lll ||r||s |r deo| (|o|a| ol u3$ 7o or) ard spec|a| |rcer||ves lor
|rves|rer|s |r |rlras|ruc|ure deo| lurds, |rl|oWs |r |||s space ray |rcrease. lr a||, lll |rl|oWs are |||e|y
c|ar| upWard |rerd |r ||e cor|rg lu|ure or expec|a||ors ol |rproverer|.
9#,e% 40 2o%es) e#o$o2"# !e#o*e!0 $% FII "$/lo3s, )he Se$se& "s e&-e#)e% )o !e2"$
s)4le $% 2o*e 4e)3ee$ )he ?5,000 $% 70,000 2!, "$ FY?4, #o$)"$1"$+ )o 4e o$e o/ )he 4e))e!
-e!/o!2"$+ s)o#, 2!,e)s "$ )he 3o!l%6
F"s#l 2))e!s )o 4e 2o!e o/ -!+2)"# #ho"#es
T|e ur|or 8udge| |as |arge|ed a l|sca| del|c|| ra||o ol 4.8 ol 00l lor l14. 0|ver ||e reso|u||or
s|oWr |r l13 |r cor|ro|||rg |||s ra||o, || |s expec|ed ||a| ||e lb8| |arge| W||| oe ad|ered |o |||s year |oo.
Corsequer||y ||e overa|| oorroW|rg prograrre lor ||e year W||c| |as oeer p|aced a| bs o.3 ||| crore |s
ur|||e|y |o oe oreac|ed.
T|ere are ||ree corcerrs |oWever, re|a||rg |o ||e assurp||ors rade oy ||e 8udge|. ||g| 00l
groW|| ra|e ol oe|Weer o.57.0, rece|p|s lror d|s|rves|rer| ard spec|rur sa|e. 3||ppages lror ||ese
areas Wou|d |rp|rge or ||e ao||||y ol ||e goverrrer| |o ra|r|a|r ||e del|c|| a| 4.8, W||c| W||| ||er |rp|y
corpror|s|rg or deve|oprer| (cap||a|) experd||ure W||c| |s d|rec||y urder ||e cor|ro| ol ||e goverrrer|.
He$#e, 3h"le ") "s e&-e#)e% )h) )he /"s#l %e/"#") !)"o o/ 4658 3"ll $o) 4e 4!e#he%, ") #o1l%
4e ) )he #os) o/ -!o@e#) e&-e$%")1!e, 3h"#h 3"ll h*e $ "2-#) o$ "$*es)2e$) $% GDP +!o3)h = s
4o)h !e #o$)"$+e$) o$ //"!2)"*e #)"o$ o$ )he +o*e!$2e$)Ds -!) o$ 4o)h )hese s#o!es6
E&)e!$l se#)o! %e*elo-2e$)s #o$)"$+e$) o$ +lo4l "ss1es
T|e ex|erra| sec|or oa|arce ol ||e ecorory oe|rg deperder| or g|ooa| deve|oprer|s Wou|d |r
par||cu|ar oe |rpac|ed oy dyrar|cs re|a||rg |o ecoror|c recovery ard l|sca| corso||da||or |r ||e u3 ard
Furo-zore ecoror|es ard reso|u||or ol ||e orgo|rg Furo deo| cr|s|s (|rc|ud|rg ||e recer||y surlaced
Cyprus cr|s|s).
#()* is expected to see a mixed bag of exogenous news, developments and reactions for the
external sector of "ndia, that would also have bearing on the growth potential of the country. "n particular,
the rate of global recovery as well as the assumption of stable oil prices is critical in this respect.
T!%e )o -"#,A1- "$ FY?4 $% C1!!e$) A##o1$) De/"#") )o 2o%e!)e
!acked by recovery in global growth prospects and revival of consumption demand for imported
goods in advanced economies trade would pick'up. ,athematically speaking, trade growth would appear
robust and high, primarily driven by low'base effect
Al|er a ||g| currer| accour| del|c|| (CA0) ol 4.2 ol 00l |r l12, l13 lor lrd|a |as oeer a year
ol sus|a|red pressure or CA0, W||c| se|||ed a| 5.4 |r ||e l|rs| r|re ror||s. w|||e groW|| |r oo|| |rpor|s
ard expor|s |as rodera|ed, ||e la|| |r expor|s |as oeer lar rore prorourced (rega||ve groW||) W|er
corpared W||| |rpor|s (rear-zero groW||), resu|||rg |r a W|der CA0. lr l13, CA0 |s expec|ed |o se|||e |r
||e rarge ol 5.3 - 5.5 ol 00l.
0roW|| |r |rpor|s W||| oe cor||rger| or ||e recovery |r ||e ecorory. w|||e o|| |rpor|s s|oW a |rerd
groW|| ra|e or accour| ol |re|as||c derard, ror-o|| |rpor|s are oased or ||e recovery W||||r ||e
dores||c ecorory. T||s corporer| cou|d cor||rue |o oe urder pressure as |Wo corporer|s, go|d ard
coa| pu| pressure or ||e |rpor| o|||. loW groW|| |r r|r|rg Wou|d er|a|| ||g|er derard lor |rpor|s, W||c| |r
|urr car pus| up ||e |rpor| o|||. Fxpor|s or ||e o||er |ard are expec|ed |o oe deperder| rore or ||e s|a|e
ol Wor|d ecorory. w||| groW|| expec|ed |o p|c| up |r 2013, ||oug| rore |r ||e deve|op|rg cour|r|es, a
rev|va| ray oe expec|ed.
As g|ooa| recovery cor||rues |o rera|r urcer|a|r |r ||e l|rs| |a|l ol ||e year, par||cu|ar|y, |r ||e
oac|drop ol ||e u3 seques|er prograrre (goverrrer| sperd|rg cu|s) ard a s|oW u3 ecorory, o|| pr|ces
Wou|d oe oear|s| arourd u3$110 per oarre| lor ||e year. 0o|d |rpor|s |r l13 |ave r|ser, as derard lor
||e prec|ous re|a| |as |rcreased lor ro| jus| |rves|rer| ou| a|so |rad|||ora| purposes. 0o|d pr|ces Wou|d
rera|r vo|a|||e |r oo|| d|rec||ors deperd|rg or ||e euro-do||ar re|a||or as We|| as p|ys|ca| derard lor go|d
oy cer|ra| oar|s.
Go"$+ /o!3!%, 3e e&-e#) e&-o!)s )o +!o3 40 5608 = ?0608 $% "2-o!)s 40 ?0608 = ?7608 "$
FY?46 This would result in a mild increase in the trade deficit in absolute terms. "n relative terms however,
as a percentage of /1%, the ratio is expected to improve, backed by a higher /1% base.
3|ru||areous|y, ||e CA0 Wou|d a|so |rprove, suppor|ed oy grea|er |rcore l|oWs lror sol|Ware
serv|ces (u3$ o0o5 or |r l14) |r ||e Wa|e ol g|ooa| recovery ooos||rg serv|ces |rpor|s lror lrd|a as We||
as grea|er |rarslers|rer|||arces (oo|| persora| ard corpora|e, |oge||er expec|ed |o oe arourd u3$ o5-70
or |r l14). lrpor|s ol l0l, go|d ard coa| or accour| ol |rcreased dores||c derard Wou|d oe a s|ress
lac|or lor CA0. P1))"$+ ll /#)o!s )o+e)he!, CAD "$ FY?4 #o1l% se))le "$ )he !$+e 46;8 = 4658 o/ GDP
lo3e! )h$ "$ FY?B, #1sh"o$e% 40 lo3e! )!%e %e/"#") +-, 4oos) "$ "$#o2e /!o2 "$*"s"4les $%
so2e -!"#e #o2/o!) o$ "2-o!)e% #o22o%")"es6
I$3!% #-")l /lo3s )o 4e !o41s)
1omestic fundamentals in the "ndian economy to strengthen0 restoring investor confidence and
long'term growth prospects along with foreign funds seeking to pocket arbitrage gains
0esp||e, ||e re|a|| ard av|a||or sec|ors |av|rg oeer opered up |o l0l, ||ey are |||e|y |o a||rac| very
||r||ed reW sec|ora| |rves|rer| l|oWs. lr |errs ol lur||er po||cy c|arges |r l0l rorrs, espec|a||y |r ||e
pers|or ard |rsurarce segrer|, We do ro| expec| |oo ruc| reWs |r l14. Ne) FDI #o1l% 4e e&-e#)e% )o
4e 4e)3ee$ USE 7;AB0 4$ 4se% o$ )he #1!!e$) %"s-e$s)"o$ !el)"$+ )o FDI -ol"#"es6 Ne) FII 3o1l%
4e "$ )he !$+e o/ USE 7;AB0 4$ 3h"#h 3"ll s1--o!) )he CAD6
Approva|s ||roug| b8l lor ex|erra| correrc|a| oorroW|rgs (FC8) are |||e|y |o |rcrease |||s year, |o
oe |r ||e rarge ol u3$ 30-35 or. w||| advarced ecoror|es ra|r|a|r|rg ar||l|c|a||y |oW |r|eres| ra|es,
oorroW|rg cos|s lor dores||c l|rrs |r ra|s|rg rorey aoroad Wou|d oe |oW. 3pec|l|ca||y, W||| ||e u3
cor||ru|rg ||s asse| purc|ase quar|||a||ve eas|rg prograrre, ||ese |r|eres| ra|e d|llerer||a|s Wou|d pers|s|.
w||| ecoror|c urcer|a|r|y preva|||rg |r advarced ecoror|es, ererg|rg rar|e| ecoror|es |ed oy
lrd|a Wou|d oerel|| lror oppor|ur|s||c ga|rs ol roverer| ol lurds aWay lror ||e lorrer |o ||e |a||er.
R"s,s )o R1-ee %e-!e#")"o$ )o -e!s"s)
w||| derard lor do||ars rera|r|rg ||g|, ||e rupee |s oourd |o rel|ec| sore Wea|ress. |||d corlor|
|s expec|ed |o core lror |rproved currer| accour| oa|arce ard |rcreased cap||a| |rl|oWs.
T|e rupee |as deprec|a|ed lror ar arrua| average ra|e ol bs 45.9 |o a do||ar |r l08 |o bs 48.0
|o a do||ar |r l12. T||s |as lur||er deprec|a|ed 5.0, |o bs 54.4 |o a do||ar dur|rg l13, a|so ||ere |ave
oeer days ol cors|derao|e deprec|a||or W|er ||e exc|arge ra|e |as crossed ever ||e bs 57 |o a do||ar
ra|e dur|rg ||e year. 0yrar|cs |r ||e Furo-0o||ar exc|arge ra|e Wou|d a|so |ave a oear|rg or roverer|
ol ||e rupee der|ved ||ereol.
I) 20 4e #o$@e#)1!e% )h) )he !1-ee 3o1l% 2o*e "$ )he !$+e o/ Rs ;BA;> )o %oll! %1!"$+
FY?46 Th"s #o1l% )e2-o!!"l0 2o*e )o3!%s )he Rs ;CA;5 )o %oll! 2!,, "$ #se o/ FII o1)/lo3s "$
#e!)"$ 2o$)hs6 While a weaker rupee would aid in exports growth, imports for "ndia would also become
more expensive. "n the event of excessive depreciation beyond this range, the !" is expected to directly
intervene in the forex market to curb fall in exchange rate through dollar purchases. #oreign exchange
reserves would register mild net accretion this year.
?0 -!o4le2s "l"$+ )he I$%"$ e#o$o20 F sol1)"o$s )o !e*"*e ")
?( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. leaders||p Cr|s|s
Wh) "s )he !eso$. Aoserce ol co|erer|, coord|ra|ed, de|err|red oe|av|our a| ||e |op
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. C|arge ol guard |r |ey ro|es, 3or|a 0ard||'s oac||rg |o |oug| po||cy relorr
reasures
7( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. l|g| l|sca| 0el|c||
Wh) "s )he !eso$. 200 r|se |r suos|d|es s|rce 2007-08
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. 3peed up Aad|ar p||o|s, use s|udy resu||s |o s||l| |o d|rec| |rarsler ol suos|d|es across
lrd|a
3crap d|ese| & urea suos|d|es, decor|ro| d|ese|
B( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. l|g| Currer| Accour| 0el|c||
Wh) "s )he !eso$. l||e|y a| 4 ol 00l |r |as| l|sca| year
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. Cor|ro|||rg l|sca| del|c|| W||| cur|a|| currer| accour| del|c||
bes|ore d|s|r|ou||or rarg|rs or l|rarc|a| sav|rg produc|s, |o curo derard lor go|d
4( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. l|g| lrl|a||or
Wh) "s )he !eso$. 7.23 & r|s|rg, s|||| aoove corlor| |eve|
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. Fase supp|y cors|ra|r|s oy rerov|rg Al|C Ac| ard oper|rg up re|a|| sec|or |o l0l
;( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. bupee 0eprec|a||or
Wh) "s )he !eso$. 20 drop |r rupee aga|rs| do||ar s|rce ear|y 2011
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. 0verseas oords are ar op||or C|ear l0l dec|s|ors qu|c||y
>( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. 3|a||ed belorrs
Wh) "s )he !eso$. lo||||cs
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. A leW oo|d relorrs car |urr ser||rer|s qu|c||y, ||e gov| rus| appear |o oe |r c|arge
0oods ard serv|ces |ax (03T) car c|arge ||e gare
C( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. l|g| lr|eres| ba|es
Wh) "s )he !eso$. 8 repo ra|e aga|rs| 5 |r |arc| 2010
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. 3|rorg corr||rer| |o l|sca| corso||da||or W||| |e|p ||e beserve 8ar| cu| ra|es
5( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. 0rop |r lrves|rer|s
Wh) "s )he !eso$. 29.5 ol 00l, gross l|xed cap||a| lorra||or, |oWes| |r sever years
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. C|ar||y or coa| car ||c|s|ar| poWer |rves|rer|s
0e| cas|-r|c| l3us |o las|-|rac| p|ars
3W||c| lror suos|dy |o |rves|rer|, s|ep up |rves|rer| |r roads, |oWrs, oroadoard |rlras|ruc|ure
<( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. loWer 3ec|or Cr|s|s
Wh) "s )he !eso$. 30000|w bs 47,738cr poWer p|ar| |d||rg or urderu||||sed
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. 3upp|y coa| |o p|ar|s Wor||rg a| suo-op||ra| capac||y
bevarp s|a|e e|ec|r|c||y ooards |o ersure poWer producers car se|| |o ||er W|||ou| payrer| Worr|es
?0( Wh) "s )he -!o4le2. 0ec||re |r lor|lo||o lrl|oWs
Wh) "s )he !eso$. bs 47,738cr por|lo||o |rl|oW |r 2011-12 aga|rs| bs 110,120 crore |r prev|ous year
Wh) #$ 4e %o$e. A gerera| |rproverer| |r ser||rer| W||| |e|p
A||oW erp|oyees |o r|gra|e lror Fll |o Nl3 lor |org-|err sav|rgs |o oe dep|oyed |r s|oc|s