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Sbþu. qþm. pbqu. rnuþ¢ 1 u [ | u u
Upuuuþ oupmupuµbmntp|uu u ¿þuupupntp|uu µbmuquu huuu[uupuu

Ul¬lUcUlUUlr UHU9USUUU °U¬UUU¬UUHlOSUU
HlHcUUU ¬rDU¬U0lU¬UU UUOH¯
U¿uqqb[ l mq|u[ qu|pþ (q|ntq, guqug) huuup muppbp ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ
unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|uu npn¿uuu bquuuq, bpp ntdbq bpqpu¿updbpþ qbpupbp|u[
mbqbqntp|ntuubpg uuquq bu: U|q uµumuqnq oqmuqnpoqb[ l 9uuqbqntpþ 1968 u 1931
pququuubpþ bpqpu¿updbpþ uuuþu bquo qþouquqpuquu mq|u[ubpg: Uµþmuqþ bpqpu¿updþ
mq|u[ubpþ uupnqguquu qþouquqpntp|ntuu ntubuu[nt qbµgntu ubp unugupquo ubpnqnq
huupuqnp l npn¿b[ muppbp ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|ntug
Uµþmuqþ mupuogntu, guuþ np u|q lµþqbumpnunq bpqpu¿updbp mbqþ bu ntubgb[ 1967, 1975,
1978 u qbpguµbu uubuuqnpouuupupg` 1988 pququuþ qbqmbupbpþ 7-þu:
Unuuggu| þu punbp. bpqpu¿upd, qpqunqntp|ntu, µuppbpuquuntp|ntu, huquuuquuntp|ntu,
lµþqbumpnu:
Ub|uuuqu|ntu ¿þuupupntp|uu uuþuqouuu huupuµbmuquu °°cU ll-6.02.2006 unpubpntu
[1] u¿quo l, np mq|u[ ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ qpqunqntp|uu µuppbpuquuntp|ntug guqntuquo
l huquuup 500 mupqu` 50 mupqu gupuggntu ntdquntp|uu ubontp|uu ¡qbpuquuguuu 90%
huquuuquuntp|uup: Luq npntu ub|uuþq uqqbgntp|ntuubpþ ntdquntp|ntug qbmuþ uuqbpunt|pþ qpu
quuhumquo l qpntumþ hnpþqnuuquu upuquguuu ubontp|uup` 1-þu ub|uuþq qnmnt huuup
uµuuqb[þg upuquguuu ubontp|ntug guqntuquo l 200 uu/q
2
, 2-pq qnmnt huuup` 300 uu/q
2
, þuq 3-pq
qnmnt huuup` 400 uu/q
2
: U|q bpbg ub|uuþq qnmþubpg u¿quo bu ubp bpqpþ gupmbqþ qpu, nt pbu
pu[ huuqugntp|ntug ¡þ oqmuqnpoqntu, 1-þu qnmntu huuuµumuuþuubgquo l 8, 2-pq qnmntu` 8-9
u 3-pq qnmntu` 9 pu[: Obu uuuuumþµ unmbgntu qu u|[ bpqpubpþ, uuuuuqnpuµbu bqpnµuquu
unpubpntu, pu|g ubq hu|muþ ¡l, pb qþouquqpuquu þu¡ u|ntpþ hþuuu qpu l umbqoqb[ ub|uuþq
qnmþubpþ u|q gupmbqg, þu¡ hþuuuqnpntunq, u upq|n¨g u|u puqupup l ¿bugbpþ oþ¿m uuþuqouuu
huuup:
Ub|uuþq uqqbgntp|ntuubpþ qbµgntu ubp qnquþg u¿uqquo hu¿qupqþ huquuuquu
oµmþuu[uguuu ubpnqþ unugþu qupunp þuqþpg hbug qbpupbpntu l muppbp ntdquntp|uu bpqpu-
¿updbpþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntpuu npn¿uuug: U|u quumg, np uqb[þ huouþ pnt|[
bpqpu¿updbp bu mbqþ ntubuntu, guu ntdbq, qpuug unt|uµbu µbmg l npul òunq hu¿qþ unub[
uuþuqouuu duuuuuq: U|q uµumuqnq pugþ gum qpnqntuuqntp|uu umntqntuþg bqpnµuquu
unpubpntu oqmuqnpoqntu l uuu bpqpnpq uuhuuuu|þu qþouq huuqugntp|ntug, npg qbpupbpntu
l quuuquontp|uu uumþouuþ uuhuuuuququuug: Ubp qnquþg unugupqqb[ l mq|u[ qu|pþ (q|ntq,
guqug) huuup muppbp ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|uu npn¿uuu
bquuuq, npþu uqb[þ uuuupuuuuu quuqpuqunuuug ubp u|u hnqquontu, pbu u|q uuuþu
huuunnm qpb[ bug uuu unugþu uuquu hu|bpbu [bqqnq [nt|u mbuuo ubp hnqquontu [2], þu¡µbu
uuu unt|u hupgþu uqþpquo nntubpbu [bqqnq qpquo ubq u|[ hnqquontu [3]: Ubp u|q unmbgntug, bpb
n¡ uupnqgntp|uup, qupb[þ l oqmuqnpob[ qnponq unpubpþ hbmuqu qupquguuu huuup, u|u l`
muppbp u¿uuuqntp|uu u µumuuþuuumqntp|uu ¿bugbpþ u qunntgquogubpþ uuþuqouuu
huuup ntubuu[ ub|uuþq qnmþubpþ n¡ pb ubq, u|[ uþ guuþ gupmbq, opþuuq` ubo
µumuuþuuumqntp|uu ¿bugbpþ huuup u¿uqb[ gupmbq, ntp ¿um ntdbq bpqpu¿updbpþ qpquuuu
µuppbpntp|ntug 500 mupþ l, uþgþu µumuuþuuumqntp|uu qunnt|gubpþ huuup (puquuhupq
¿bugbp) oqmuqnpob[ gupmbq, npmbq uþgþu ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ qpquuuu µuppbpntp|ntug
200 mupþ l, qngp µumuuþuuumqntp|uu ¿bugbpþ huuup (unuuòuumubp) ntubuu[ gupmbq,
npmbq n¡ ubo ntdþ bpqpu¿updbpþ qpquuuu µuppbpntp|utug 100 mupþ l u u|[u: U|u unmbgntuu
uupuqpquo l uþ ¿upg bpqpubpþ unpubpntu u uuhpudb¿m l ntuntuuuuþpb[ u|q bpqpubpþ qnpòg:
Uqumbug, np ntdbq bpqpu¿updbpþ uuuþu µumuu-qþouquqpuquu mq|u[ubpg ubp bpqpntu uqb[þ
¿um bu, µbmg l µupquµbu qpuug huuuqupqb[ u u¿uqb[ huuuµumuuþuu gupmbqubp:
U|uµþuþ unmbguuu qbµgntu ub|uuþq qnmþubpþ huuup npµbu hþug qupb[þ l guqntub[
bpqpu¿updbpþ ntdquntp|ntuubpþ 100, 200, 300 u 400 uu/q
2
gunuumþouu uuuqquqg, npg
huupuqnpntp|ntu qmu qumupb[ gupmbqubpþ uqb[þ oþ¿m u muppbpuqquo u¿uqntu:
Obu bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu ubþuuþquubpg puququuu¡uq ntuntuuuuþpquo bu, pu|g
quuþuqnt¿uqb[ qpuug unuguguuu mbqu nt duuuuuqg ¿um qdqup þuqþp l, guuþ np
55
bpqpu¿updbpg duuuuuqþ nt mupuontp|uu ubg mbqþ bu ntubuntu µumuhuquunpbu: °u|muþ l,
np bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu huouþntp|ntug qupb[þ l uqupuqpb[ huqquqbµ bpunt|pubpþ
1ntuunuþ pu¿þuuu opbugþ uþgngnq [4]: Htumþ ¿bugþ quu qunntgquogþ ¿uhuqnpouuu
e T
duuuuuquuþgngntu (mupþubpnq upmuhu|mquo) pbqntq u ubq bpqpu¿updþ unuguguuu
huquuuquuntp|ntug qnpn¿qþ hbmu|u[ puuuòunq.

e T
e T P
λ −
− =1 ) ( ,
(1)
npmbq λ- u bpqpu¿updbpþ pþqu l uþuqnp duuuuuqntu:
λ- þ huquumþ updbgubp umuuu[nt huuup uuhpudb¿m bu puququuu¡uq ubo pqnq ntdbq
bpqpu¿updbpþ qpuugntuubp, npg n¡ uþ¿m l huupuqnp: U|q µumounnq l[ ubp qnquþg unugupqqb[
l muppbp ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|uu npn¿uuu bquuuq, bpp
ntdbq bpqpu¿updbpþ qbpupbp|u[ mbqbqntp|ntuubpg ¿um ¡bu: U|q uµumuqnq oqmuqnpoqb[
l 9uuqbqntpþ bpqnt bpqpu¿updbpþ uuuþu mbqbqumqntp|ntug, npg pbpquo l [5] u [6] qpgbpntu:
9uuqbqntpþ hu|muþ bpqpu¿updþ q[þuqnp gugntug mbqþ l ntubgb[ 1968 pququuþ hntuþuþ 9-
þu: Up¿uquþupbpþ qumupuo ntuntuuuuþpntp|ntuubpþ gupuggntu (hntuþuþ 13-þg uþu¡u
qbqmbupbpþ 10-g) qpuugqb[ bu uqb[þ guu 450 = n gugntuubp 14 6 ≤ ≤K lubpqbmþq quubpþ
uuhuuuubpntu: Luq npntu bpqpnpq ntdbq gugntug mbqþ l ntubgb[ ubµmbupbpþ 1bþu:
Upqpu¿updbpþ pþqg, quþquo lubpqbmþq quuþg (uuu pu[u|untp|ntuþg), pbpquo l uq. 1-ntu: r
qbµ, qpuuþg ubq mupþ unug bpqpu¿upd lp mbqþ ntubgb[ Uµþmuqþ mupuogntu, npþ uuuþu
mbqbqumqntp|ntu qpbpb ¡qu:
Uq|ntuuq 1
Upqpu¿updþ
mq|u[ubpg
Lubpqbmþq quug,
K
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
lu[u|untp|ntug,
I
uþu¡u
1
1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9
Sugntuubpþ pþqg,
i
n
44 167 158 72 27 11 7 1 1
U|q mq|u[ubpþ hþuuu qpu, npnug quumnpbu þpbugþg ubpqu|uguntu bu qþouquqpuquu
¿upg, qunntgqb[ l hþumnqpuu (uq.1): Luq npntu, pu[u|untp|uu muq qupb[þ l huuquuu[ uuu
ugub[bpnqpuuubpþ quug, npnug þupuqnpquo bu huouþntp|ntuubpþ u uuµ[þmntqubpþ
humquuþ¿ubpnq: Ubpqu|ugub[nq pu[u|untp|ntug quu ugub[bpnqpuuubpþ k quug µumuhuquu
ubontp|ntuubpþ mbugnq, hþumnqpuuþg qupb[þ l uugntu uub[ pu¿þuuu puquuq|uug (uq. 1):
n n
i
/

0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1


I
56
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Uq. 1 9uuqbqntpþ 1968 pququuþ bpqpu¿updþ gugntuubpþ pu[u|untp|uu
pu¿þuuu hþumnqpuu u puquuuq|ntu
Uq.1-þg bpuntu l, np pu[u|untp|uu µumuhuquu ubontp|uu u|qµþuþ pu¿þntug humuq
uqupuqpqntu l 1ntuunuþ pu¿þuuu opbugnq u k ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updþ unuguguuu
huquuuquuntp|ntug qupb[þ l npn¿b[ hbmu|u[ puuuòunq.

!
) (
k
e a
k P
a k −
=
,
,.... 2 , 1 , 0 = k

(2)
npmbq a -u k µumuhuquu ubontp|uu uupbuumþququu uµuuntuu l, u|uþugu` uþgþu updbgg:
cbugþ quu qunntgquogþ ¿uhuqnpouuu uupnqg gupuggntu qupnq bu [þub[ ubq quu uþ
guuþ bpqpu¿updbp quu guqhuupuµbu ¡[þub[: Upb mq|u[ mupntu pn[np gugntuubpu guqntub[ ubq
bpqpu¿upd, uµu bpqpu¿updþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|ntug uþ npn¿uqþ duuuuuqntu q[þuþ`

T
mT
T P
e
e = ) ( ,
(3)
npmbq m -g bpqpu¿updbpþ pþqu l qþmntuubpþ gupuggntu,
T
-u` qþmntuubpþ duuuuuquuþgngg`
upmu|umquo mupþubpnq:
Upb guqntubug, np 100 = T mupþ, uµu 9uuqbqntpþ huuup` 2 = m , guuþ np ntdbq
bpqpu¿upd u|q mupuogntu mbqþ l ntubgb[ uuu 1931 pququuþu, npþ uuuþu, pupbpuþmupup,
µuhµuuqb[ bu mq|u[ubp [5]: Uq. 2-ntu pbpquo bu 1968 u 1931 pququuubpþ bpqpu¿updbpþ
mq|u[ubpg 5 pu[ u uqb[þ ntdquntp|uu gugntuubpþ huuup u qpuug unuguguuu ) (k P
huquuuquuntp|ntuubpg, npnug npn¿qb[ bu (2) puuuòunq: k ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updþ
unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|ntuu uqb[þ huquumþ q[þuþ, bpb u|u npn¿bug bpqnt bpqpu¿updbpþ
qþouquqpuquu mq|u[ubpg qntuupb[nt uþgngnq: Uq. 2-ntu pbpquo l uuu
) (k P
-u, npg npn¿quo
l bpqnt bpqpu¿updbpþ qntuupu|þu qþouquqpuquu mq|u[ubpþ uþgngnq, u u|u qupb[þ l huuupb[
uqb[þ huquumþ, guu ubq bpqpu¿updþ mq|u[ubpnq npn¿quog:
U
q|ntuuq 2
Sq|u[ubp 9uuqbqntpþ bpqnt bpqpu¿updbpþ
uuuþu
Ugub[bpnqpuuubpþ quubpg
0 1 2 3
lu[u|untp|ntug,
I
5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9
1968 p.
gugntuubpþ pþqg,
i
n
11 7 1 1
huquuuquuntp|ntug,
) (k P 0,55 0,33 0,1 0,02
1931 p.
gugntuubpþ pþqg,
i
n
6 5 2 1
huquuuquuntp|ntug, ) (k P 0,423 0,364 0,16 0,045
Sugntuubpþ qntuupu|þu pþqg 17 12 3 2
°uquuuquuntp|ntug, ) (k P 0,497 0,35 0,12 0,028
Lpþq huquuuquuntp|ntug, ) , ( k T P e
( 100 = T mupþ u
30 = e T
mupþ)
0,3 0,21 0,07 0,017
Puuþ np bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|uu pu¿þntug
npul duuuuuquuþgngntu quþquo ¡l qpuug ntdquntp|uu pu¿þntuþg, uµu k ntdquntp|uu
bpqpu¿updþ unuguguuu [pþq huquuuquuntp|ntug
e T
duuuuuquuþgngntu q[þuþ`
) ( ) ( ) , ( k P T P k T P e e = : (4)
Uq.2-ntu pbpquo bu bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu ) , ( k T P e [pþq huquuuquuntp|ntug ¿bugþ
¿uhuqnpouuu bupuqp|u[
30 = e T
mupþ duuuuuquuþgngntu:
57
U|uµþunq, ubp qnquþg unugupqquo ubpnqg huupuqnpntp|ntu l mu[þu mbqþ ntubguo
pbqntq ubq bpqpu¿updþ qþouquqpuquu mq|u[ubpu oqmuqnpob[nq npn¿b[ npul ntdquntp|uu
bpqpu¿updþ unuguguuu huquuuquuntp|ntug ¿bugþ ¿uhuqnpouuu nqg gupuggþ huuup:
Umugquo upq|ntugubpg ubp qnquþg oqmuqnpoqb[ bu uþuhupq upq|ntuupbpuquu ¿bugþ
bpquppbmnub u|ntubpþ huquuuquu oµmþuu[uguuu huuup, þu¡g huupuqnpntp|ntu mqbg
uupuuuqnpuuu guuuqg qngpugub[ 0,5%-nq:
Uµþmuqþ bpqpu¿updþ mq|u[ubpþ uupnqguquu qþouquqpntp|ntuu ntubuu[nt qbµgntu
huupuqnp q[þuþ ubp u|u ubpnqnq npn¿b[ muppbp ntdquntp|uu bpqpu¿updbpþ unuguguuu
huquuuquuntp|ntug Uµþmuqþ mupuogntu, guuþ np u|q lµþqbumpnunq bpqpu¿updbp mbqþ bu
ntubgb[ 1967, 1975, 1978 u qbpguµbu uubuuqnpouuupupg`1988 pququuþ qbqmbupbpþ 7-þu:
Upuuuntu qpuugquo ntdbq bpqpu¿updbpg muppbp lµþqbumpnuubp bu ntubgb[ u muppbp
duuuuuq bu mbqþ ntubgb[ (0unuþ - 1679 p., Upupum|uu - 1840 p., 4upugup - 1937 u 1984 pp. u
u|[u), u|q µumounnq l[ þuqþpu u|umbq uqb[þ l pupquuntu, pu|g huupuqnp l u|u [ntob[
uuhupudb¿m mbqbqumqntp|ntu huqugb[nt qbµgntu:

58
Êàíä.òåõí.íàóê Èîñèô Ïàëÿí
Åðåâàíñêèé ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé óíèâåðñèòåò àðõèòåêòóðû è ñòðîèòåëüñòâà
ÑÒÀÒÈÑÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÌÅÒÎÄ ÎÏÐÅÄÅËÅÍÈß ÂÅÐÎßÒÍÎÑÒÈ ÂÎÇÍÈÊÍÎÂÅÍÈß
ÇÅÌËÅÒÐßÑÅÍÈÉ
Íà îñíîâàíèè èçó÷åíèÿ ìàòåðèàëîâ Çàíãåçóðñêèõ çåìëåòðÿñåíèé !"# è !$ ãîäîâ
ðàçðà%îòàí ìåòîä î&ðåäåëåíèÿ âåðîÿòíîñòè âîçíèêíîâåíèÿ çåìëåòðÿñåíèé ðàçíîé
èíòåíñèâíîñòè &ðè ìåíü'åé èíôîðìà(èè î ñèëüíûõ çåìëåòðÿñåíèÿõ. Èçó÷åíèå âñåõ
ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèõ äàííûõ î )&èòàêñêîì çåìëåòðÿñåíèè &îçâîëèò î&ðåäåëèòü âåðîÿòíîñòü
âîçíèêíîâåíèÿ çåìëåòðÿñåíèé ðàçíîé èíòåíñèâíîñòè è äëÿ òåððèòîðèè )&èòàêà* &îñêîëüêó
ñèëüíûå çåìëåòðÿñåíèÿ ñ òåì +å ,&è(åíòðîì ñëó÷àëèñü íå òîëüêî - äåêà%ðÿ !## ãîäà .ñàìîå
êàòàñòðîôè÷åñêîå.* íî è â !"-* !-/* !-# ãîäàõ.
Ïîëó÷åííûå ðåçóëüòàòû %ûëè èñ&îëüçîâàíû &ðè âåðîÿòíîñòíîé î&òèìèçà(èè
+åëåçî%åòîííûõ êîëîíí îäíî,òà+íûõ &ðîìçäàíèé* ÷òî &ðèâåëî ê óìåíü'åíè0 &ðî(åíòà
àðìèðîâàíèÿ êîëîíí íà 1*/2.
Êëþ÷åâûå ñëîâà: çåìëåòðÿñåíèå* &îâòîðÿåìîñòü* &åðèîäè÷íîñòü* âåðîÿòíîñòü* ,&è(åíòð.

Doctor of Engineering losif Palyan
Yerevan State Üniversity of Architecture and
Construction
STATlSTlCAL MET•€D •€‚ DETE‚Mlƒlƒ„ T•E P‚€…A…lLlTY €•
EA‚T•†ÜA‡ES €CCÜ‚‚EƒCE ˆ
…ased on the study of ‰aterials on Šange‹ur earthŒua•es of 1968 and 1931, a ‰ethod has Žeen
develo•ed for deter‰ining the •roŽaŽility of occurrence of earthŒua•es of different intensities •ith least
infor‰ation aŽout strong earthŒua•es. The study of all the statistic data on the S•ita• earthŒua•e, •ill
allo• to deter‰ine the earthŒua•es occurrence •roŽaŽility of varying intensity for the area of S•ita• as ˆ
•ell, since strong earthŒua•es in this e•icenter occurred not only on the 7
th
of Dece‰Žer 1988 ( the ‰ost
disastrous ), Žut also in 1967, 1975, 1978.
The oŽtained results •ere used in the •roŽaŽilistic o•ti‰i‹ation of reinforced concrete colu‰ns of
one-floor industrious Žuildings, •hich led to a decrease in •ercentage of reinforce‰ent of colu‰ns Žy
0,5%.
‡ey•ords: earthŒua•e, re•eataŽility, •eriodicity, •roŽaŽility, e•icentre.
0puquuntp| ntu
1. °°cU ll-6.02.2006. Ub|uuuqu|ntu ¿þuupupntp|ntu:Uuþuqouuu unpubp. - Upuuu, 2006:
2. 1u[|uu r.U. cþuupupuquu qnuumpntqgþuubpþ hu¿qupqþ huquuuquu oµmþuu[uguuu
ubpnqg ub|uuþq uqqbgntp|ntuubpþ qbµgntu// UDc1° qþmuquu u¿þumntp|ntuubpþ
dnqnquont. - Upuuu, 2009. b °. l (34). - lg 101-105:
$. Ïàëÿí ÈÑ )òàòèñòè÷åñêèé ìåòîä î&ðåäåëåíèÿ âåðîÿòíîñòè âîçíèêíîâåíèÿ
çåìëåòðÿñåíèé.. 3êñ&ðåññ4èíôîðìà(èÿ 5)òðîèòåëüñòâî â îñî%ûõ óñëîâèÿõ. )åéñìîñòîéêîå
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