Le Huy Ba, Prof., Sci. Dr. Ly Ngoc Minh, M. Eng.

Hochiminh City University of Industry, Vietnam Jakarta, Indonesia, 4-5 August, 2009 lehuyba@hui.edu.vn, lyngocminhly@hui.edu.vn

CONTEN

• • • • •

INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM ENRGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTIOPN IN VIETNAM ENRGY CONSUMPTION IN HOCHIMINH CITY CONCLUSION

INTRODUCTION
In order to save energy and protect the environment for sustainable development we need to know how does the big city consumption the energy? This paper carried out in general glance on the production and consumption of energy in Hochiminh City-biggest city in Vietnam-in the period 2005-2009.

8.4% 7.7% 7.1% 7.3% 534 571

8.5% 8.0% 835 704 881

440

480

6.0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007 2008F

$60 $50 $40 $30

52.3
Export (US$bn) Import (US$bn)

44.5
40.0

48.4

36.9 31.1 25.0
20.0 26.5 32.2

$20 $10 $0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Sep07 Oct07 Nov07 Dec07 Jan08 Feb08 Mar08 Apr08 May08 Jun- Jul-08 Aug08 08 Sep08 8.8% 9.3% 10.0% 2.9% 2.4% 3.6% 3.0% 2.2% 3.9% 2.1% 1.1% 1.6% 0.2% 12.6% 14.1% 15.7% Monthly CPI Yoy CPI 25.2% 21.4% 19.4% 26.9% 27.0% 28.3% 27.9%

0.9% 0.7% 1.2%

US$bn
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Jan-08

Monthly Import, Export & Trade deficit

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Import (US$bn)

Export (US$bn)

Trade deficit (US$bn)

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY CAPABILITIES
Up to 2020 - Coal: 50-61 million tons/annum, (32-40 Mt for power generation) - Crude: 10 – 18 million tons/annum - Natural Gas: 14-16 BCM/annum - Hydropower: 58 - 65 TWh/annum - Uranium Potential: RAR: 113 tons, EAR-I: 16563 tons - Up to 2030 - Coal: ~ 70 - 80 million tones/annum - Crude: ~10 – 18 Million tons/annum - Natural Gas: ~14 – 20 BCM/annum - Hydropower ~75 -83 TWh/annum Renewable Energy
2005 Small/mini Hydro Wind Power Solar Cells Biomass Geothermal Total MW 185.00 0.80 1.15 150.00 0 336.95 GWh 555 na na na 0 ~600 Up to 2020 MW GWh 1000 - 1200 300 - 400 4-6 4,2005,200 310-410 100 1700-2100 Up to 2030 MW GWh

3,500

10,000

MAJOR ENERGY-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ITEMS ITEMS GDP (USD/cap.) GDP (USD/cap.) Commercial Energy Consumption (KgOE/cap.) Commercial Energy Consumption (KgOE/cap.) Electricity Consumption (KWh/cap.) Electricity Consumption (KWh/cap.) Energy Intensity (KgOE/1000USD95) Energy Intensity (KgOE/1000USD95) Growth Rate of GDP Growth Rate of GDP (%) (%) Growth Rate of Energy Consumption (%/year )) Growth Rate of Energy Consumption (%/year Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption (%/year )) Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption (%/year Energy Elasticity Energy Elasticity Electricity Elasticity Electricity Elasticity 1990 1990 114 114 63 63 93 93 312 312 2005 2005 645 645 250 250 540 540 500 500 7.5 7.5 11.2 11.2 14.2 14.2 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9

Final Energy demand

Renewable Energy

Primary energy balance
2005 2010 2015 2020 Physical unit 2030 Physical unit KTOE 171828 103994 KTOE 317391 121792 Physical unit Primary energy demand Domestic energy resouce include: Coal Crude oil Gas Hydro Small hydro Renewable energy Remain (+) Lack(-) 44,8Mll tons 14788 +17313 32,6Mll. Tons 17,8Mll. Tons 6,89Bll m3 17,49TWh 18271 18120 6205 3762 45,42Mll tons 19,86Mll tons 9,62Bll m3 33,76TWh 1,99TWh 45,8Mll tons 25440 20217 7759 7259 428 15134 +13215 55,28Mll tons 20Mll tons 14,19Bll m3 58,67TWh 4,2TWh 49Mll tons 30960 20360 12772 12614 904 16170 -16847 63,36Mll tons 20,7Mll tons 15,6Bll m3 60,08TWh 9,78TWh 55,7Mll tons 35482 21073 14040 12919 2104 18378 -67929 75Mll tons 20Mll tons 20Bll m3 67,8TWh 28,1TWh 63Mll tons 42000 20360 18000 14586 6042 20805 -195599 KTOE 43832 61145 Physical unit KTOE 63023 76238 Physical unit KTOE 110627 93780

III-Energy consumption in Vietnam
Estimated energy consumption in Vietnam
(exclude nuclear power)

Energy consum ptionin2007
2,500 2,326

billion BTU - billion British Thermal Unit 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 2005 Coal
Period Annual growth rate
1,925,420 2,729,611 5,163,391

UA S Ch ina
1,698

8,834,784

2,000

1,500

South Korean Ind onesia Thailand

1,000

500
2010 Petroleum
2005-2010 9%

2015 Gas

2020 Total consumption
2015-2020 14%

226 114 86 47 1 MM TOE

V ietnam

Hydro

2010-2015 17%

Source: EVN, BP, Wikipedia, MIT…

Electricity – Demand vs supply imbalance
TKw h

Base case

T Kw h

High case

1 ,00 0 90 0 80 0 70 0 60 0 50 0 40 0 30 0 20 0 10 0 19 9 5 20 0 0 20 0 5 20 1 0 20 1 5 20 2 0 20 2 5

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Electricity output Elec tric ity demand (high)

Elec tric ity output

Elec tric ity dem and (base)

Stressful system: in 2008, required capacity of 12,000 – 13,000 MW while maximum capacity is only 12,000 MW. For years, Vietnam has had a power saving campaign and a rolling black-out calendar. EVN - import electricity from China. Near future power imports - include Laos & Cambodia (2015: 13 TWh & 35m tons of coal; 2020: import about 38-53% of power demand) Future is even worse: annual capacity shortage of 800–1,000 MW Base case: shortage of 46.3 TWh in 2015 and 159.8 TWh in 2020 High case: shortage of 102.4 TWh in 2015 and 270.8 TWh in 2020 (source: Vietnamnet)

Power generation development plan (by types of generation)
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Source: EVN

IV-ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN HCMC
• • Overview of Hochiminh City Biggest city in Viet Nam, located in the Southern. It is over 2000 square kilometers large, with a Subtropical Climate. Population: nearly 7 million permanent inhabitants, nearly 8% population of Vietnam. The daily need of such a population is a great logistic problem for the municipal authorities. A great economical activity occurs around the area. The industrial one is growing by 10% in 2009, contributing to more than 30% of the national GDP growth. The main industries are food processing, textile, garment, plastics, and mechanics. 50% GDP of the HCMC are represented by servicing activities: banking, transport, export, trade and tourism. Agricultural production represents only 10% of the economy. Traffic jam puts a great challenge for development.

Energy consumption
• Fuel Energy Used by vehicles, industrial plants, and domestic comfortable 4 millions liters of fuel are burned every day for industrial production, power plants, transport. The fuels used are petrol, gas, LPG mainly imported (60% the LPG are imported). Viet Nam is an oil exporting country. But we imported 95% the fuel needs. Dung Quat oil refinery zone was operated in Feb., 2009 supply a large range of oil refined products and a municipal program aiming an efficient and economical use of energy. The most part of industrial plant use old and obsolete technology. Estimations 50% of the industrial equipments are obsolete, 40% are acceptable and 10% are modern equipments.

Energy consumption
• Electricity Energy In 2007, electric consumption in HCMC is 12.043 billions kWh, Electricity is used in industrial plants as a source of energy, for motors, thermal source, home facilities. Tourism and other linked activities are also great electric energy consumers: air conditioners, over lighting, hot water, entertainment are as many factors of electricity wasting. According to the development planning of the municipality, the energy growth from 2001-2005 is among 12.2% and from 2006-2007 is 8.6% per year. Maximum energy consumption in HCMC in 2007 is 2,121 MW; time for maximum energy consumption is about 6100h.

Energy consumption
• In 2007, Vietnam has no enough electricity for using, so electricity HCMC in 2007 is the same situation. cutted down 215 million kWh, includes: public lighting: 37.9%, for office: 33.8%, lighting for advertising: 7.4%, other: 6.7%. Structure for using the electricity in HCMC in 2007 as flowing in table 1:

Table 1: Structure for using the electricity in HCMC in 2007

2005 Industry and Building Agriculture and Food processing Service and Trade Home Other Total 4,976 11.9 1,112.24 3,616.97 487.76 10,205.4

2006 5,395 11.65 1,199.72 4,039.26 490.41 11,137.0

2007 5,843 11.78 1,359.15 4,366.26 462.28 12,043.3

Energy consumption
• Consumption electricity in 2007 in HCMC is about 1,810.76 kWh/person/year; double 2.6 time in the all country. • Figure 1 show the electricity consumption in 2008 in HCMC:

Figure 1: The electricity consumption in HCMC, 2008

Generation

53462

106669

169238

247352

349390

Generation

53462

112658

190047

294012

431664

Generation

53462

117341

198565

305784

446645

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Electricity production per capita in some countries of APEC (Unit: kWh/capita. annum)
Year Australia Canada Chile China Indonesia Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Philippines Korea Russia Singapore Thailand United States 2886 309 10062 1980 6539 15249 1054 307 67 4847 730 916 7121 372 977 5126 795 11258 1990 9052 17195 1402 547 212 6748 1264 1373 8936 424 1995 9599 18884 1972 836 476 7670 2205 1562 9607 491 4095 5816 6308 1366 12713 2000 10565 19662 2676 1074 595 8454 2974 1954 10271 591 5558 6048 7607 1580 13447 2005 12033 18397 3203 1881 552 8850 3797 2178 10526 681 8257 6649 8833 2033 14215

Vietnam

-

131

201

338

635

tû k W h 1400 16% 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 Tiê u t h ụ đ iệ n , t ỷ k W h 1 327.8 430 680 9.40% 5.80% 15% 900 1200 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 5.80% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1

Tố c đ ộ t ă n g t rư ở n g

Forecast the demand of energy consumption in 2015 in HCMC

Industry and Building Capacity demand (MW) Energy consumption demand (GWh) 1,620

Agriculture and Food Processing 11.5

Trade and Service 1,203

Home

Other

2,925

560

7.967

25.7

5,389

10,592 1,987

Save energy
• The energetic audit of the nearly 2000 enterprises with an electric power up to 500 KVA. • The enterprises will consider energy saving occasions and carry out the topics. • Funds can be provided by the central governmental energy saving funds or from banks. But some incentive measures are projected with the cleaner production funds. This fund has some advantages such as no interest loan, by long-term payment, easy formalities. Till this day, 6 cleaner production protects are under examination.

Save energy
• The formation of energy managers.
– Trainers were formed; they are lecturers form some university in HCMC. From this course, the DOST develop training sessions for some hundred energy managers in three main economic activities: paper mill, plastics mounding and textile dyeing with the cooperation of the mentioned universities. – Energy saving topics in the MSc degree course of the universities.

• One of the major difficulties of this topic is the source of the special equipment needed by the enterprises for the improvement of their old machines (some of them are 50 years old). The experts find easily the energy waste in industrial production for example: paper mills: the energy waste is among 20%; plastic factories: it goes from 7 to 40 %; in a experimental energy audit carried out in a four star hotel in HCMC shows 20% of energy can be saved and the investment is paid back only in two months (by the side this hotel just receives an ISO 9000 certificate for the quality of it services).

Save energy
• Ministry of Industry (MoIT) rules the use of energy on the whole country, policy on the efficiency and economy of energy. Municipal policy on the energy: demanding the enterprises to make their energy audit and to design energy conservation device for their equipment especially for heat, electric energy, water recycling. In 2002, a decree demands all the enterprises to make their energy audit. The implementation of energy conservation center in HCMC. There are a lot of organisms making energy audit. • The coordinating energy saving activities on the HCMC municipality and as a correspondent of the central government energy saving program (managed by the MOST). • DOST sets up a short term training program for energy managers on the municipal area, supported by EDP (the Netherlands) ADEME (France) JECC (Japan). According to the Ministry decree, DOST must support the newly formed energy auditors.

Save energy
• The experienced experts are not enough for facing increasing demands. Too, for the managers project managers, we have devotes but inexperienced managers. They must be trained in their new jobs and the DOST himself has not too experience in the domain. A huge works must be done in the next years in energy domain to maintain a sustainable economic development in the country.

Although the trade electricity energy in HCMC has reduced since the few years ago but it is still is biggest amount in Vietnam. So we need to cut down the consumption of it, save energy and use renewable energy forms in order to protect the environment for sustainable develop.

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