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You are on page 1of 72

Multi-Factor Interest Rate Derivatives

M. Aichinger & C. Kletzmayr

IMCC/MathConsult

Friday, April 17, 2009

Motivation

The instrument

The models

Outline

Friday, April 17, 2009

Motivation

using (Quasi) Monte Carlo

interest rate / FX rate processes - least squares MC

Squares Approach, Longstaff and Schwartz (2001)

models, Piterbarg (2005)

Differences or Finite Elements

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

Maturity Date - usually

also a coupon date

Evaluation Date

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

T

i

can be calculated by

CV

i

=

RL

i

C

RL

i

PL

i

C

PL

i

Friday, April 17, 2009

the respective set of coupon weights for coupon date T

i

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

T

i

can be calculated by

CV

i

=

RL

i

C

RL

i

PL

i

C

PL

i

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

T

i

can be calculated by

CV

i

=

RL

i

C

RL

i

PL

i

C

PL

i

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

T

i

can be calculated by

CV

i

=

RL

i

C

RL

i

PL

i

C

PL

i

SV

t

=

N+1

l=

t

exp

T

l

t

r

d

(s)ds

CV

l

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

T

i

can be calculated by

CV

i

=

RL

i

C

RL

i

PL

i

C

PL

i

Friday, April 17, 2009

Bermudan callable interest rate instruments

periodic payments C

PL

and C

RL

T = {T

0

, T

1

, . . . , T

N+1

}

T

i

can be calculated by

CV

i

=

RL

i

C

RL

i

PL

i

C

PL

i

SV

0

=

N+1

l=1

exp

T

l

T

0

r

d

(s)ds

CV

l

Friday, April 17, 2009

Interest rate and exchange rate models

dr(t) = ((t) (t)r(t))dt +

r

(t)dW(t)

dr(t) = ((t) + u(t) a(t)r(t))dt +

r

(t)dW

1

(t),

du(t) = b(t)u(t)dt +

u

(t)dW

2

(t)

d lnr(t) = ((t) (t) lnr(t))dt +

r

(t)dW(t)

df

l

(t)

f

l

(t)

= (r

i

(t) r

j

(t))dt +

f

l

(t)dW

l

(t)

Friday, April 17, 2009

(Quasi) Monte Carlo Simulation

rate models are discretized using an Euler scheme

(Incremental construction of the Wiener

processes ) W

t

i+1

= W

t

i

+

t

i

t

i

,

t

i

N(0, 1)

in [0;1] so called low discrepancy sequences are used

for calculation (Sobol, Halton, Faure, ...) - the Wiener

process is discretized using the Brownian Bridge

technique

W

t

i

= (1 )W

t

j

+ W

t

k

+

(1 )(t

k

t

j

)

t

i

=

(t

i

t

j

)

(t

k

t

j

)

, t

j

< t

i

< t

k

,

t

i

N(0, 1)

Friday, April 17, 2009

Comparison of MC with QMC

Start date: December 1, 2008

Evaluation date: December 1, 2008

Duration: 10 years

Coupons: quarter-annual

Coupon rate: max(7.5%-1.5*(3M LIBOR),0.0)

Coupon basis: 30/360

Redemption rate: 100%

Friday, April 17, 2009

Comparison of MC with QMC

short rate r(0)=2%

drift ! = 0.0375

reversion speed " = 1

volatility # = 0.015

Friday, April 17, 2009

Comparison of MC with QMC

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

SV

1,1

SV

1,2

. . . SV

1,N

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

M,1

SV

M,2

. . . SV

M,N

S

k,i

denotes the value of the swap at time T

i

in the k

th

path

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

D

k,i

= exp

T

i

T

0

r

d

(s)ds

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

set of short rate matrices (MxN matrix) for each short rate

used in the regression SR

l

the regression FX

l

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm

entries of this matrix will be replaced by the option values

set of short rate matrices (MxN matrix) for each short rate

used in the regression SR

l

the regression FX

l

SR

l

k,i

= r

l

k,i

FX

l

k,i

= f

l

k,i

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

as a function of short rates and exchange rates at

last call date T

n

min

k=1

(S

k,N

g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

}))

2

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

as a function of short rates and exchange rates at

last call date T

n

regression function

min

k=1

(S

k,N

g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

}))

2

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

as a function of short rates and exchange rates at

last call date T

n

min

k=1

(S

k,N

g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

}))

2

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

as a function of short rates and exchange rates at

last call date T

n

min

k=1

(S

k,N

g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

}))

2

g

k,N

for

each path using the optimal parameter set A

*

N

RV

g

k,N

= g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

})

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

as a function of short rates and exchange rates at

last call date T

n

min

k=1

(S

k,N

g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

}))

2

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

as a function of short rates and exchange rates at

last call date T

n

min

k=1

(S

k,N

g({A

N

}, {r

k,N

}, {f

k,N

}))

2

each path: If the latter is smaller than RV

g

k,N

it is

better to exercise the option and take the

difference SV

k,N

-C

N

, otherwise set S

k,N

to 0

SV

k,N

=

SV

k,N

C

N

if C

N

< RV

g

k,N

0 else

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

SV

1,1

SV

1,2

. . . SV

1,N1

SV

1,N

C

N

SV

2,1

SV

2,2

. . . SV

2,N1

0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

k1,1

SV

k1,2

. . . SV

k1,N1

0

SV

k,1

SV

k,2

. . . SV

k,N1

SV

k,N

C

N

SV

k+1,1

SV

k+1,2

. . . SV

k+1,N1

0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

M,1

SV

M,2

. . . SV

M,N1

0

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

N-1

and compute two least

square regressions:

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

N-1

and compute two least

square regressions:

min

k=1

(SV

k,N1

C

N1

g({A

N1

}{r

k,N1

}, {f

k,N1

}))

2

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

N-1

and compute two least

square regressions:

min

k=1

l>N1

S

k,l

D

l,k

D

N1,k

h({B

N1

}{r

k,N1

}, {f

k,N1

})

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

parameter sets A* and B* in each path

RV

g

k,N1

= g({A

N1

}, {r

k,N1

}, {f

k,N1

})

RV

h

k,N1

= h({B

N1

}, {r

k,N1

}, {f

k,N1

})

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

parameter sets A* and B* in each path

RV

g

k,N1

= g({A

N1

}, {r

k,N1

}, {f

k,N1

})

RV

h

k,N1

= h({B

N1

}, {r

k,N1

}, {f

k,N1

})

compare RV

g

to RV

h

: If the rst regression value is

smaller than the second regression value, it is better

to exercise the option and take the difference

SV

k,N-1

-C

N-1

, otherwise set S

k,N-1

to 0

SV

k,N1

=

SV

k,N1

C

N1

if RV

g

k,N1

< RV

h

k,N1

0 else

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

SV

1,1

SV

1,2

. . . 0 SV

1,N

C

N

SV

2,1

SV

1,2

. . . SV

1,N1

C

N1

0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

j1,1

SV

j1,2

. . . SV

j1,N1

C

N1

0

SV

j,1

SV

j,2

. . . 0 SV

j,N

C

N

SV

j+1,1

SV

j+1,2

. . . 0 0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

M,1

SV

M,2

. . . SV

M,N1

C

N1

0

Friday, April 17, 2009

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

different from 0 per row and may look like

0 0 . . . 0 SV

1,N

C

N

0 0 . . . SV

1,N1

C

N1

0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

j1,1

C

1

0 . . . 0 0

0 SV

j,2

C

2

. . . 0 0

0 0 . . . 0 0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

0 0 . . . SV

M,N1

C

N1

0

A modied least squares algorithm cont.

different from 0 per row and may look like

0 0 . . . 0 SV

1,N

C

N

0 0 . . . SV

1,N1

C

N1

0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

SV

j1,1

C

1

0 . . . 0 0

0 SV

j,2

C

2

. . . 0 0

0 0 . . . 0 0

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

0 0 . . . SV

M,N1

C

N1

0

date and the nal value of the option is

E[CV ] =

1

M

M

k=1

n

i=0

D

k,i

S

k,i

Friday, April 17, 2009

Regression functions

(X, {r}, {f}) =

||<S

x

Y

, x

R

Friday, April 17, 2009

Regression functions

basis functions (multi-dimensional

power functions)

vector that contains all interest and exchange rates

|| =

N

r

+N

f

i=1

i

, N

N

r

+N

f

0

,

Y

=

N

r

+N

f

i=1

Y

i

i

(X, {r}, {f}) =

||<S

x

Y

, x

R

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

x

1

= fx

x

2

= r

d

x

3

= r

f

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

diffusion

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

convection

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

reaction

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

convection - use methods known from CFD for

stabilization (FD: upwinding FEM: SD, SUPG,...)

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

convection - use methods known from CFD for

stabilization (FD: upwinding FEM: SD, SUPG,...)

scheme) either semi-implicit (Crank Nicolson !=0.5)

or fully implicit (!=1)

Friday, April 17, 2009

The corresponding PDE

u

t

1

2

3

i,j=1

ij

2

u

x

i

x

j

i=1

i

u

x

i

+

31

1

u

x

3

+x

2

u = 0

convection - use methods known from CFD for

stabilization (FD: upwinding FEM: SD, SUPG,...)

scheme) either semi-implicit (Crank Nicolson !=0.5)

or fully implicit (!=1)

Friday, April 17, 2009

Start date: December 1, 2008

Evaluation date: December 1, 2008

Duration: 10 years

Coupons: quarter-annual

Coupon rate: max(7.5%-1.5*(3M LIBOR),0.0)

Coupon basis: 30/360

Redemption rate: 100%

Callability: annual on December 1, 2008

Call rate: 100%

Results - Floater

Friday, April 17, 2009

short rate r(0)=2%

drift ! = 0.0375

reversion speed " = 1

volatility # = 0.015

regression functions:

Results - Floater

g(. . .) = a

0,.

+ a

1,.

r

k,.

+ a

2,.

(r

k,.

)

2

+ a

3,.

(r

k,.

)

3

h(. . .) = b

0,.

+ b

1,.

r

k,.

+ b

2,.

(r

k,.

)

2

+ b

3,.

(r

k,.

)

3

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - Floater

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - Floater

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - Floater

PDE Value: 1.01708

Friday, April 17, 2009

Start date: January 1, 2008

Evaluation date: January 1, 2008

Duration: 10 years

Redemption rate: 100%

Callability: annual on January 1, starting 2013

Call rate: 0%

Results - Steepener Swap

Coupons PL: quarter-annual

Coupon rate: max(0.5*3M LIBOR-0.5%,0.0)

Coupon basis: 30/360

Friday, April 17, 2009

Start date: January 1, 2008

Evaluation date: January 1, 2008

Duration: 10 years

Redemption rate: 100%

Callability: annual on January 1, starting 2013

Call rate: 0%

Coupons RL: annual

Coupon rate: max(10*(10YCMS-2YCMS)+1.0%,0.0)

Coupon basis: 30/360

Results - Steepener Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

short rate r(0)=2%

drift ! = 0.0375

reversion speed of short rate " = 1

reversion speed of second process b = 0.05

volatility of short rate #

r

= 0.015

volatility of second process #

u

= 0.015

correlation $ = 0.2

Results - Steepener Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - Steepener Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - Steepener Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

PDE Value: 0.003299

Results - Steepener Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Start date: January 1, 2009

Evaluation date: January 1, 2009

Duration: 5 years

Redemption rate: 100%

Callability: annual on January 1, starting 2010

Call rate: 0%

Product Currency: EUR

Results - FX Linked Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Coupons RL: annual

Coupon rate: (3M CHFLIBOR)+0.02*FX

Coupon basis: 30/360

Coupons PL: annual

Coupon rate: 1.25*(3M EURLIBOR)

Coupon basis: 30/360

Results - FX Linked Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

short rate r(0)=4%

drift ! = 0.0125

reversion speed " = 0.25

volatility of short rate # = 0.01

correlation rd-rf: 0.8

correlation rd-fx: -0.2

Results - FX Linked Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

short rate r(0)=2%

drift ! = 0.00625

reversion speed " = 0.25

volatility of short rate # = 0.015

correlation rf-fx: -0.15

Results - FX Linked Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

exchange rate fx(0)=0.62

volatility of exchange rate # = 0.05

regression functions:

Results - FX Linked Swap

g(. . .) = a

0,.

+ a

1,.

r

1

k,.

+ a

2,.

(r

1

k,.

)

2

+

a

3,.

r

2

k,.

+ a

4,.

(r

2

k,.

)

2

+

a

5,.

f

k,.

+ a

6,.

(f

k,.

)

2

+

a

7,.

r

1

k,.

r

2

k,.

+ a

8,.

r

1

k,.

f

k,.

+ a

9,.

r

2

k,.

f

k,.

h(. . .) = b

0,.

+ b

1,.

r

1

k,.

+ b

2,.

(r

1

k,.

)

2

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - FX Linked Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - FX Linked Swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Results - FX Linked Swap

PDE Value: 0.01845

Friday, April 17, 2009

Summary

values for interest rate derivatives - the

algorithm works independently of the

underlying stochastic processes

reliability of the approach

methods allows a fast calculation

steepener and callable fx linked swap

Friday, April 17, 2009

Acknowledgement

Andrea Fischbacher, Johannes Frst and Michael

Schwaiger for fruitful discussions on the topic.

Ministry for Economy and Labor and by the Upper

Austrian government within the framework

``Industrial Competence Centers''.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Acknowledgement

Thank You

Friday, April 17, 2009

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