Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011

1
RUSSIA AEROSPACE DA
***1NC Shell***.....................................................................................................................................................2
***Uniqueness***...................................................................................................................................................3
Competitiveness.......................................................................................................................................................3
Economy..................................................................................................................................................................4
Aerospace................................................................................................................................................................5
ussian !nvestment.................................................................................................................................................."
America #eclinin$.................................................................................................................................................1%
***&in'***............................................................................................................................................................12
(eneral...................................................................................................................................................................12
Satellites.................................................................................................................................................................13
E)port Controls......................................................................................................................................................14
***!nternal &in'***..............................................................................................................................................15
Space !nvestments.................................................................................................................................................15
Soyu* +o,erni*ation.............................................................................................................................................1-
Economic #iversi.ication......................................................................................................................................1/
***!mpact***........................................................................................................................................................10
(eneral...................................................................................................................................................................10
1allistic +issile 2roli.eration................................................................................................................................2%
ussia3China +o,ule.............................................................................................................................................2%
***4urns 5***......................................................................................................................................................22
US Economy..........................................................................................................................................................22
China 1a,..............................................................................................................................................................22
ussia +iscalculation............................................................................................................................................23
4he !SS..................................................................................................................................................................23
***A34***.............................................................................................................................................................2-
&in' 4urn...............................................................................................................................................................2-
Corruption..............................................................................................................................................................2/
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Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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***1NC Shell***
4he lac' o. a US space pro$ram is .uelin$ the $ro6th o. ussia7s aerospace in,ustry no6
Mack 11 8#avi, +ac' 3325311 9ice 2resi,ent: 4he +i,,le East !nstitute o. the CS!S: Center .or Strate$ic an, !nternational Stu,ies:
http;33csis.or$3<lo$3russias=ne6=space=o,yssey>
ussia7s space pro$ram in recent years has <een $iven a <reath o. ne6 li.e. 4his ne6 ,eca,e: an, in particular the ne)t .our
to .ive years: 6ill <e a critical time.rame .or oscosmos. 4he retirement o. the American .leet o. space shuttles 6ill leave a
voi,: an, ussia can use this opportunity to step up an, ta'e a lea,in$ role in the international space arena: not to mention
the pro.its they 6ill ra'e in <y monopoli*in$ the mar'et .or near=Earth space travel. 4hat is not to say that ussia shoul,
simply use this time to capitali*e on the .avora<le supply3,eman, situation: <ut use it 6isely to invest <ac' into their
roc'et=space in,ustry an, <uil, partnerships 6ith up=an,=comin$ space po6ers such as !n,ia an, China so as to ai,
research an, ,evelopment an, remain competitive .or the .uture.
That’s crucial to end Russian eport reliance and !aintain lon"#ter! econo!ic sustaina$ilit%
Mohant% ’11: 82ro.. Arun hol,s a 2h# .rom Aca,emy o. Sciences USS: 2ro. ? the Centre .or ussian an, Central Asian
Stu,ies: 230311: http;33in,rus.in3articles32%113%23%03me,ve,ev@,octrine@1213".html>
ussia .or the .irst time in its post=Soviet history ,ra.te, in 2%%0 a lon$=term economic ,evelopment strate$y up to the year
2%2%. 4he lon$ term ,evelopment strate$y 6as approve, <y the State Council a.ter thorou$h ,iscussion. 4he central thrust
o. the ,evelopment strate$y up to 2%2% is to trans.er the economy .rom the rails o. ra6=material e)port to innovation=,riven
,evelopment. 4he strate$y has <een approve, <y the +e,ve,ev=2utin tan,em. 4he main pro<lem 6ith the ussian
economy is that 6hile it remains e)tremely ,epen,ent on ener$y e)ports: the $lo<al economy is <ecomin$ increasin$ly
competitive: ,riven <y a shi.tin$ <alance o. .inancial po6er in .avour o. ,evelopin$ countries: re$ional economic
inte$ration an, technolo$ical innovation. Aeavy ,epen,ence pre,ominantly on revenues collecte, .rom ener$y an, ra6=
material resources leaves ussia in an unsta<le an, unenvia<le economic an, .inancial situation. !. ussia 6ants to <e a
$lo<al economic po6er: it must move to6ar,s innovation= <ase, ,evelopment. 4he strate$y <ase, on ussia7s current
competitive a,vanta$e in ener$y: transport an, a$riculture aims at creation o. a scienti.ic an, technolo$ical comple) to
promote specialisation in hi$h= technolo$y an, ,iversi.ication o. the structure o. the economy. !t $ives importance to
creation o. economic an, social con,itions that 6oul, .acilitate ,evelopment o. <est human capital an, ,emocracy in the
country.
Causes nuclear &ar
'il"er ( 8Shel,on Bil$er: Au..in$ton 2ost: 2%%": author previously 9ice 2resi,ent .or esource #evelopment at Unite, Cay
Dussian Economy Baces #isastrous Bree Ball ContractionE $lo<aleconomiccrisis.com3<lo$3archives335-
!n ussia historically: economic health an, political sta<ility are intert6ine, to a ,e$ree that is rarely encountere, in other
maFor in,ustriali*e, economies. !t 6as the economic sta$nation o. the .ormer Soviet Union that le, to its political ,o6n.all.
Similarly: +e,ve,ev an, 2utin: <oth intimately acquainte, 6ith their nation7s history: are unquestiona<ly alarme, at the
prospect that ussia7s economic crisis 6ill en,an$er the nation7s political sta<ility: achieve, at $reat cost a.ter years o.
chaos .ollo6in$ the ,emise o. the Soviet Union. ecent pollin$ ,emonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratin$s o.
2utin an, +e,ve,ev are ero,in$ rapi,ly. 1eyon, the political elites are the .inancial oli$archs: 6ho have <een .orce, to
,elevera$e: even unloa,in$ their yachts an, e)ecutive Fets in a ,esperate attempt to raise cash. Shoul, the ussian economy
,eteriorate to the point 6here economic collapse is not out o. the question: the impact 6ill $o .ar <eyon, the o<vious
accelerant such an outcome 6oul, <e .or the (lo<al Economic Crisis. 4here is a $eopolitical ,imension that is even more
relevant then the economic conte)t. #espite its economic vulnera<ilities an, perceive, ,ecline .rom superpo6er status:
ussia remains one o. only t6o nations on earth 6ith a nuclear arsenal o. su..icient scope an, capa<ility to ,estroy the
6orl, as 6e 'no6 it. Bor that reason: it is not only 2resi,ent +e,ve,ev an, 2rime +inister 2utin 6ho 6ill <e lyin$ a6a'e
at ni$hts over the prospect that a national economic crisis can trans.orm itsel. into a virulent an, ,esta<ili*in$ social an,
political upheaval. !t Fust may <e possi<le that U.S. 2resi,ent 1arac' G<ama7s national security team has alrea,y <rie.e,
him a<out the consequences o. a maFor economic melt,o6n in ussia .or the peace o. the 6orl,. A.ter all: the most recent
national intelli$ence estimates put out <y the U.S. intelli$ence community have alrea,y conclu,e, that the (lo<al
Economic Crisis represents the $reatest national security threat to the Unite, States: ,ue to its .acilitatin$ political
insta<ility in the 6orl,. #urin$ the years 1oris Heltsin rule, ussia: security .orces responsi<le .or $uar,in$ the nation7s
nuclear arsenal 6ent 6ithout pay .or months at a time: lea,in$ to .ears that ,esperate personnel 6oul, illicitly sell nuclear
6eapons to terrorist or$ani*ations. !. the current economic crisis in ussia 6ere to ,eteriorate much .urther: ho6 secure
6oul, the ussian nuclear arsenal remainI !t may <e that the .inancial impact o. the (lo<al Economic Crisis is its least
,an$erous consequence.
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Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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***)ni*ueness***
Co!petiti+eness
Co!petiti+eness is increasin" no& – !ultiple &arrants
,nside S-T 2010 JD4he ussian Bli$ht Simulator !n,ustry:E +ay 10: http;33hall,ale.com3insi,esnt3russian=.li$ht=simulator=
in,ustryK
4hese are still not the $lory ,ays o. the .ormer Soviet Union: <ut the outloo' is improvin$. 4here are three main reasons .or
this resur$ence; 4he .irst impetus came .rom the ussian $overnment: 6hich restructure, the ,isa$$re$ate, aerospace
in,ustry: concentratin$ the remainin$ capa<ilities to ensure a more tar$ete, use o. the scarce resources = in some e)perts7
vie6 also an attempt to 8re>$ain state control over the strate$ic in,ustries. !n a,,ition: the ne6 national e)port a$ency:
oso<orone)port: altere, the strate$y .or promotin$ military aircra.t. !nstea, o. o..erin$ Fust the aircra.t: the a$ency aime,
to esta<lish service centres in the customer countries: 6ith trainin$ centres inclu,e,. Secon,ly: .or the .irst time in years:
increase, military <u,$ets meant that su..icient .un,in$ 6as availa<le to purchase ne6 equipment. !n 2%%": a recor,=
<rea'in$ 1 trillion rou<les 832 <illion USL> 6as spent on armament. Binally: competition that 6as $ettin$ ever .iercer in an
open ,omestic mar'et soon separate, the 6heat .rom the cha... Companies that 6ere not a<le to 'eep pace .ell <y the
6aysi,e. EA MSC: one o. the .amous 2en*a=<ase, simulator manu.acturers: no lon$er e)ists. 4he 2en*a Simulation
#esi$n Company 82S#C>: once the only enterprise in the USS an, ussia to specialise solely in the ,esi$n an,
manu.acture o. simulators: has not pro,uce, a sin$le simulator over the past ,eca,e. 2S#C stays a.loat <y repairin$ the
rare equipment that still remain .rom the thousan,s o. units pro,uce, in its hey,ay. 4o,ay: more than 3% enterprises in the
ussian Be,eration are involve, in simulation an, trainin$ .or the air: lan, an, sea ,omains. 1asically: only three
companies: ho6ever: ,evelop an, pro,uce .li$ht trainin$ ,evices on a lar$er scale; the close, Foint=stoc' companies 8NAG>
CS4S #inami'a: 4ransas 3 .E.4. Oronshta,t: an, Spet*te'hni'a.
.
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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/cono!%
Russia’s econo!% is hi"h no& – $ut capital has not solidi0ied – that’s the !ost i!portant internal link
RT ne&s 11: Economic outloo' .or 2%11: 131%32%11: http;33rt.com3<usiness3ne6s3russia=economy=outloo'=2%113:
#eutsche 1an' ussia Chie. Economist Haroslav &issovoli' says that .or him a 'ey .or the comin$ year is ussia7s
imminent accession to the Corl, 4ra,e Gr$ani*ation: 6hich he says 6ill open up investment .or the ussian economy. Ae
says this 6ill help un,erpin the ussian rou<le: on the <ac' o. increase, investment .lo6s: 6ith eal Estate havin$ the
<i$$est $ro6th potential in the comin$ year. D+y maFor e)pectations .or 2%11 are mainly connecte, 6ith ussia .inally
Foinin$ C4G: 6hich ! ta'e as $enerally positive .or our economy. 4his 6ill open more investment opportunities .or ussia:
improve its e)ports an, help increase the num<er o. alliances 6ith .orei$n partners. Stren$thenin$ rou<le 6ill ma'e
investors come <ac' to ussia an, ussia7s economic $ro6th 6ill <e a <it up: .rom 4P (#2 $ro6th this year to a<out 5P
in 2%11. 4al'in$ lon$er term: ! e)pect ussia to come <ac' to pre= crisis levels in 2%13: 6hen investment into .i)e, capital
have ,evelope,: an, 6hich ! ta'e as the main con,ition .or a soun, an, sta<le economy.E Gt'ritie chie. economist
9la,imir 4i'homirov also <elieves the economy 6ill continue to $ro6 at a<out the same 4P rate it has ,one in 2%1%. Ae
too is e)pectin$ a re<oun, in housin$: 6ith a$riculture comin$ <ac' a.ter ta'in$ a ,rou$ht in,uce, hammerin$ in 2%1%.
Russian econo!ic "ro&th co!in"1*uestion is in+est!ent
Reuters 11 Dussia (#2 $ro6th improves: concerns remain= up,ate 1E 3324 .ore)yar,.com3en3ne6s3ussia=(#2=$ro6th=
improves=concerns=remain=2%11=%3=244155/%5N=U2#A4E=1
ussiaQs (#2 $ro6th pic'e, up sli$htly in Be<ruary: ,ata sho6e, on 4hurs,ay: potentially o..erin$ some com.ort to the
central <an' 6hich is <attlin$ to contain in.lation 6ithout Feopar,isin$ the economic recovery. (ross ,omestic pro,uct
$ro6th 8(#2> pic'e, up to 4.4 percent year=on=year .rom ManuaryQs 4.3 percent: Economy +inister Elvira Na<iullina tol,
reporters. A,Fuste, .or seasonal an, calen,ar .actors: (#2 rose %.2 percent in Be<ruary: month=on=month: a.ter a .all o. %.3
percent in Manuary. 4he ,ata comes a ,ay <e.ore a central <an' <oar, meetin$: 6hen most analysts see a 25 <asis point hi'e
in ,eposit rates as part o. an on$oin$ campai$n a$ainst in.lation. Some ho6ever: such as (ol,man Sachs an, Cre,it Suisse:
rec'on the recent mi)e, run o. economic ,ata == 6ith in,ustrial output $ro6th hittin$ a 15 month lo6 in Be<ruary == coul,
prompt the central <an' to pause in the ti$htenin$. #espite the pic' up compare, to Manuary: economic $ro6th remaine,
<elo6 #ecem<erQs levels: 6hile a survey sho6e, that <usiness con.i,ence in ussia remains amon$ the lo6est in Europe:
<ehin, Aun$ary an, the C*ech epu<lic: amon$ others. 4he survey: release, <y the Be,eral Statistics Service: o. 4:4%%
<usiness mana$ers: also sho6e, that ,eman, .or manu.acture, $oo,s continue, to su..er in +arch .rom an overall 6ea'
,omestic ,eman,: a lac' o. .inancin$ an, hi$h ta)es. 4he Statistics Service also revise, unemployment .i$ures .or the past
t6o months to ma'e them compara<le 6ith historical ,ata. Na<iullina sai, +arch in.lation 6ill li'ely come in at %.-
percent month=on=month: echoin$ .orecasts .rom other o..icials. She also reiterate, the ministryQs .orecast .or 2%11 net
capital .lo6s aroun, *ero ,espite a ne$ative start to the year. RG. course 6e are concerne, <y the capital out.lo6 .rom the
point o. vie6 o. the investment climate: <ut the tren, can chan$e at any time an, .or no6 there are no $roun,s to say that
6e nee, to run an, chan$e our .orecast:R she sai,.
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Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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Aerospace
/nd o0 Constellation
Arkipo+ 11 8!lya Ar'ipov an, &yu<ov 2ronina: reporters .or 1loom<er$ Ne6s: Dussia Spee,s Up Space +ission 2lans as U.S.
+ay Cut Spen,in$E: April 5
th
: 2%11: http;33666.<loom<er$.com3ne6s32%11=%4=%43russia=spee,s=up=moon=mars=plans=as=u=s=may=
cut=space=.un,s.html
U.S. Bun,s ussia receives L/52 million .rom the U.S. .or sen,in$ cre6s to the !SS throu$h 2%15. 4he country is usin$ the
launch .ee o. L-3 million per mem<er on cra.t ,evelopment: maintenance an, up$ra,e: 2erminov sai,. U.S. 2resi,ent
1arac' G<ama in Be<ruary last year announce, an en, to NASA7s Constellation pro$ram: ,evelope, un,er .ormer
2resi,ent (eor$e C. 1ush7s a,ministration: 6hich 6oul, have <uilt roc'ets an, spacecra.t .or a return to the moon <y
2%2%. 4he ,ecision has <een critici*e, <y .ormer NASA astronauts an, o..icials: inclu,in$ the a$ency7s previous
a,ministrator an, Neil Armstron$: the .irst man to 6al' on the +oon: sayin$ it 6ill si,eline the American space pro$ram.
Cith no manne, $overnment roc'ets rea,y to $o: routine trips to so=calle, lo6= earth or<it 6ill <e outsource, to private
companies. NASA is see'in$ an L10./ <illion <u,$et .or ne)t year: L3%% million less than the .un,in$ tar$ete, .or this year.
ussia inten,s to continue allocatin$ more .un,s .or the space in,ustry: 2es'ov sai,. DCe7ll increase .inancin$ i. possi<le:
,epen,in$ on the <u,$et <alance: <ecause the in,ustry 6as an, remains one o. our priorities:E he sai,
3utin re+itali4ed the aerospace industr% – it’s ke% to Russia’s econo!% and securit%
D5C 2006 J Unite, States #epartment o. Commerce Dussia; Consoli,ation o. the Aerospace in,ustry S +AS3GAA!3Aerospace
teamE: http;33tra,e.$ov3static3aero@rpt@russian@in,ustry@consoli,ation.p,.:K
4he ussian aviation in,ustry is one o. several 'ey <usiness sectors 'ept un,er constant revie6 an, scrutiny <y the
+inistry o. !n,ustry an, Ener$y. 4he reasons .or this close revie6 are t6o.ol,T ussia consi,ers a stron$ aviation in,ustry
vital not only to economic success <ut also to national security. Chile ussia7s military aviation sector mar$inally
success.ul: at the <e$innin$ o. the 21st century: ussia7s aviation in,ustry as a 6hole 6as essentially a non=player in the
$lo<al aviation mar'et. +in,.ul o. this reality: 2resi,ent 9la,imir 2utin ,irecte, the .ormation a (overnment Commission
to stu,y the i,ea o. in,ustry consoli,ation as a means o. revitali*in$ an, ,evelopin$ an in,ustry that ha, .allen on har,
times. 4he recommen,ation o. the Commission 6as the creation o. an open Foint stoc' company consoli,atin$ many o. the
state=o6ne, aerospace companies un,er a sin$le entity. 4his consoli,ate, entity: the Unite, Aircra.t Corporation 8UAC>:
has move, quic'ly to trans.orm an, revitali*e the ussian aviation in,ustry an, has positione, itsel. as <oth a .ormi,a<le
competitor an, potential partner in the $lo<al aviation mar'et. 8See Chart 1>.
7
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
Russian aerospace 0unctionin" on all c%linders no&1aerospace !o+es pro+e
RT 10 8Russian Ti!es: 132%32%10 Devitali*in$ ussia7s aviation in,ustry :E http;33rt.com3ne6s3russia=aviation=in,ustry=su'hoi3>
Must ten years a$o ussia7s aviation in,ustry 6as all <ut $roun,e,: <ut in the past .ive years the state has increase, .un,in$
t6enty times. ussian aviation in,ustry is <ein$ cleare, .or ta'e=o.. once a$ain. !n the <e$innin$ o. this ,eca,e: ussia7s
civil aircra.t pro,uction ha, ha, its 6in$s clippe, so much that no more than a ,o*en or so planes limpe, o.. the pro,uction
lines each year S a .ar cry .rom the hea,y hei$hts o. the USS: 6hen Soviet Fets thrust .or ,ominance in the s'ies a$ainst
1oein$s an, Air<uses: ma'in$ up a quarter o. the 6orl,7s .leet. !n 2%%-: the ussian $overnment ,eci,e, to ,o somethin$
a<out this Fet la$ an, create, the Unite, Aircra.t Corporation: or UAC: consoli,atin$ aircra.t construction companies an,
state assets in the in,ustry. 4o,ay: ussian plane=ma'ers even say they are rea,y to eat into the lucrative mar'et o. the
6orl, lea,ers: Air<us an, 1oein$. DGur main pro<lem is that 6e have .allen terri.yin$ly <ehin, in terms o. technolo$y:E
a,mits UAC 2resi,ent Ale'sey Be,orov: Dall our enterprises S especially aircra.t manu.acturers an, ,esi$ners S nee, to <e
massively re=equippe, 6ith the very latest equipment. 4hat 6ill ta'e a lot o. investment an, 6e hope 6ith the help o. the
state 6e7ll ma'e that <rea'=throu$h that 6ill allo6 us to compete 6ith the 6orl,7s lea,in$ pro,ucers.E An, 6hile a <ran,
span'in$ ne6 ran$e o. all=sin$in$: all=,ancin$ ussian=ma,e passen$er Fets is still .ar .rom ta'in$ o..: thereQs much hope
on the hori*on. #espite many pro<lems: those ,ealin$ 6ith them on the $roun, are convince, the lo6est point o. the crisis
has alrea,y passe,: an, they <elieve there7s a <ri$ht .uture .or the ussian aviation in,ustry. 4he Su'hoi SuperFet=1%% is
ussia7s .irst post=Soviet mi,,le=ran$e passen$er Fet. Su'hoi7s chie.=pilot Ale'san,r Ha<lontsev: 6ho 6ith more than 3%
years o. e)perience: 6as the man at the controls on its mai,en .li$ht. Ae spea's o. it 6ith .on,ness an, it seems heQs not the
only one. 12% or,ers have alrea,y <een ma,e .or the ne6 <ir,: an, the .irst planes are e)pecte, to <e han,e, over <y the
en, o. the year. DCe have trie, to compile all the <est thin$s in this piece o. machinery an, ! can see it comin$ out 6ell. !
have e)perience o. .lyin$ similar types o. planes in ussia an, a<roa,: so ! can compare:E assures Ha<lontsev: Dan, it
sho6s me the SuperFet is a $reat result. 4he quality is very $oo,. !t also ma'es me <elieve in our ,esi$ners an, others
6or'in$ in the in,ustry.E 4he SuperFet is Fust the <e$innin$ thou$h. Bor the UAC: <i$$er appears to <e <etter: an, itQs
settin$ its si$hts on the much more lucrative mi,=ran$e Fet mar'et= an, .lyin$ the ussian in,ustry ri$ht into the heart o.
1oein$ an, Air<uses main territory. D#epen,in$ on ho6 ussia7s economy recovers: ! thin' 6e7ll <e a<le to pro,uce
competitive pro,ucts <y aroun, 2%15=1-:E .orecasts Gle$ 2anteleyev o. Aviaport. D1y 2%1/ at the latest: 6e7ll ,e.initely
have the ne)t .ully=competitive pro,uct layin$ claim to one o. the <roa,est mar'et se$ments S thatQs a mi,=ran$e Fet 6ith a
capacity o. 15%=212 passen$ers.E So a.ter a tur<ulent .e6 years: ussiaQs aviation in,ustry appears to have cleare, the
storms create, <y the collapse o. the Soviet Union: an, 6ill <e hopin$ it has the pro,ucts thatQll .ly in the .leets o. airlines
aroun, the 6orl,.
,ndustr% +ia$le no&
8loo!$er" 297 88loo!$er": Binancial Ne6s Service: 29732%11 Dussia Spee,s Up Space +ission 2lans as U.S. +ay Cut
Spen,in$
:E http;33666.<loom<er$.com3ne6s32%11=%4=%43russia=spee,s=up=moon=mars=plans=as=u=s=may=cut=space=.un,s.html>
ussia may accelerate planne, missions to the moon an, +ars as it see's to maintain its lea, over China in space
e)ploration an, close the $ap 6ith the U.S. ussia may start manne, .li$hts to the moon <y the en, o. the ,eca,e: 1% years
earlier than previously planne,: an, esta<lish a <ase there <y 2%3%: accor,in$ to ussia7s oscosmos space a$ency. ussia
may also sen, a man to +ars <y 2%4%. D!t is the .irst time that the $overnment has allocate, ,ecent .inancin$ to us:E
Anatoly 2erminov: hea, o. the ussian space a$ency oscosmos: sai, in a phone intervie6 on April 2. 4he a$ency7s L3.5
<illion <u,$et .or 2%11 has almost triple, since 2%%/: reachin$ the hi$hest since the collapse o. the Soviet Union in 1""1.
DCe can no6 a,vance on all themes a <it:E 2erminov sai,. Unli'e 5% years a$o: 6hen <eatin$ the U.S. into space mar'e, a
$eopolitical victory in the Col, Car: ussia is .ocusin$ on the commercial: technolo$ical an, scienti.ic aspects o. space
travel. 2resi,ent #mitry +e,ve,ev has name, aerospace one o. .ive in,ustries the $overnment plans to nurture to help
,iversi.y the economy o. the 6orl,7s lar$est ener$y supplier a6ay .rom resource e)traction. DCe are increasin$ the space
<u,$et as the time has come .or a technolo$ical <rea'throu$h:E#mitry 2es'ov: the spo'esman .or 2rime +inister 9la,imir
2utin: sai, <y phone yester,ay. DCe nee, to replace out,ate, in.rastructure an, continue to support the .la$ship status o.
the space in,ustry.E
Space sector solid no&
:
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
;isl%ako+ 10 8An,rei Oislya'ov: 6riter .or 9oice o. ussia: 1231"32%10 DNe6 impulse to ussian space roc'ets:E
http;33en$lish.ruvr.ru3ra,io@<roa,cast33-5-41"/33/25-125.html>
ussia7s space in,ustry is en,in$ the year 6ithout mishaps. Althou$h ol, hea,aches an, pro<lems are still there: thin$s
have not chan$e, .or the 6orse: an,: in our trou<le, times: that is quite an achievement. #espite the crisis: ussia is lea,in$
the 6orl, in roc'et launches. ussia ma,e 2/ launches in 2%%0: one more than in 2%%/ an, 32 launches last year carin$ into
or<it 2" ,omestic an, 2% .orei$n payloa,s. 4his is a post=Soviet recor,. 4he Americans ,roppe, mar'e,ly <ehin,: 6ith 14
launches: inclu,in$ one unsuccess.ul attempt: the Balcon=1. !n Manuary to Gcto<er this year: 05 satellites 6ere inFecte, into
space: 6ith the lar$est num<er: 35: launche, <y ussia. !n this case: ho6ever: it acte, as a tra,itional .rei$hter an, or<ite,
more .orei$n satellites than its o6n. Un.ortunately: in spite o. the .act that ussia lea,s the 6orl, in roc'et launches: it is
still usin$ technolo$y create, .i.ty years a$o. !ts roc'ets are ro<ust: <ut: there is a limit to everythin$. !t seems it is time to
roll out ne6 launch vehicles. At the same time: it is har, to ,isa$ree 6ith the ussian Space A$ency 8oscosmos> that
launch services require hi$h technolo$ies: o. the same type that are use, to ,evelop nano=pro,ucts: an, oscosmos is
,etermine, to stay ahea, ,espite the $lo<al crisis. !t is common 6is,om that most e..orts are nee,e, 6here success is
assure,. ussia7s space navi$ation system = (lonass is a nice e)ample o. that. !ts 2- satellites are to <e Foine, <y three more
<y the en, o. the year coverin$ all o. ussia. (oo, pro$ress 6as reporte, on the $roun,. 4he terrestrial in.rastructure .or
space monitorin$ has <een improve, an, space .in,in$s are <ein$ use, 6ith $reater e..ectiveness. !t is also $rati.yin$ that
colle$e an, university stu,ents are actively Foinin$ the e..ort. !n 2%%0: three ussian universities: the Si<erian an, Southern
Be,eral universities an, 4yumen State University: set up space monitorin$ centers. 4he technolo$ies they are usin$ 6ere
,evelope, in ussia <y the Scan 5 En$ineerin$ 4echnolo$y Center. 4he centers serve to o<serve the environment in
ussia7s re$ions .rom space. 1ut: to <e e..ective: they nee, a lar$e num<er o. remote=sensin$ satellites: 6hich are
un.ortunately lac'in$. Ao6ever: ne)t year7s plans inclu,e launchin$ more Earth an, 6eather satellites. !. everythin$ $oes
6ell: ussia 6ill acquire its o6n constellation o. 6eather satellites <y 2%13. (iven a lar$e an, up$ra,e, .leet o. roc'ets an,
spacecra.t o. all types: ussia may <ecome the a<solute space lea,er at the <e$innin$. 4o achieve this: the ussian
$overnment promise, to replace its 'ey space assets: inherite, .rom the .ormer USS: 6ith a <ran,=ne6 tria, o. space
in.rastructure .or the 21st century. !n a,,ition to a ne)t=$eneration manne, spaceship: ussia committe, to <uil, a ne6
launch site an, a .leet o. roc'ets 6ith a 6i,e ran$e o. capa<ilities. 1y the en, o. 2%%/: 6e ha, ma,e the potentially
momentous ,ecision to ,evelop a ne6 launch .acility .or manne, missions in the nationQs Bar East. Gn Novem<er - that
year: 2resi,ent 2utin si$ne, a ,ecree on the creation o. the 9ostochny 8REasternR> launch site in the ussian Bar East. Chen
<uilt: the ne6 launch site 6oul, mar' a historic shi.t o. the ussian manne, space pro$ram .rom 1ai'onur Cosmo,rome in
Oa*a'hstan to its o6n territory. Brom the moment the Soviet Union ,isinte$rate, in #ecem<er 1""1: ussian o..icials have
promise, to a<an,on 1ai'onur an, shi.t operations to the e)istin$ launch site in 2lesets' an, to a ne6ly <uilt .acility in the
Bar East. Ao6ever: the severe .inancial crisis o. the 1""%s stalle, all these plans. +ore than a ,eca,e later: recor,=hi$h oil
prices allo6e, +osco6Qs am<itions in space <e more realistic. 4he creation o. the ne6 launch site aime, to en, ussian
,epen,ency on Oa*a'hstan: 6hose $overnment char$e, multi=million=,ollar annual .ees .or the rent o. 1ai'onur. 4he price
ta$ o. the 6hole un,erta'in$ 8apparently inclu,in$ the ,evelopment o. the launch site: a ne6 .amily o. launch vehicles an,
a ne)t=$eneration spacecra.t 6as estimate, at L -% <illion. RAre you 'i,,in$ 6hen tal'in$ a<out a ne6 .amily o. launch
vehicles an, spacecra.tIE you may as'. Not at all. 4he Ener$omash Science an, 2ro,uction Association has ,evelope, the
ne6 #=1"1 roc'et en$ine: meant to equip An$ara a,vance, carrier roc'ets: rea,y .or mass pro,uction. Chy is this
,evelopment uniqueI 4he hi$h cost o. puttin$ a payloa, into space has al6ays <een a hea,ache .or launch customers. Au$e
an, e)pensive multista$e roc'ets are <urnt up in Fust one launch. Bor ,eca,es ussian an, Cestern en$ine <uil,in$
specialists have <een 6restlin$ 6ith the pro<lem o. ,evelopin$ a re=usea<le roc'et en$ine 6hich coul, <e <rou$ht <ac' to
Earth .or .urther use a.ter havin$ 6or'e, its portion o. .li$ht. Chen other en$ines are use,: the <urnt=out sta$es .all ,o6n
to Earth: posin$ a serious threat <oth to the ecolo$y o. the impact areas an, peopleQs lives. 4he #Qs recovera<ility an,
repeate, use 6ill cut payloa, ,eployment costs several times over. 4o <e .air: it shoul, <e sai, that the Americans 6ere the
.irst to ,emonstrate the .easi<ility o. a re=usea<le liqui,=.uel roc'et en$ine. !n the mi, 1""%Qs: a small #elta Clipper sin$le=
sta$e roc'et li.te, o.. the launch pa, an, success.ully returne,. Ao6ever: the Americans ,eci,e, to e)ploit their success:
Foinin$ .orces 6ith ussia. 1et6een 1""4 an, 1""5: Ener$omash specialists 6or'e, on a Foint pro$ram to ,evelop a re=
usea<le roc'et en$ine. Soon: ho6ever: the U.S. a<staine, on acceptin$ ussian services: an, classi.ie, all 6or' in the .iel,.
1oein$ 6as 6or'in$ on a multi=<illion ,ollar Space &aunch !nitiative pro$ram to ,evelop an a,vance, re=usa<le launch
vehicle. Simultaneously: NASA ten,ere, ,evelopment o. a ne)t $eneration re=usea<le carrier roc'et. 4he European Space
A$ency also trie, to ,evelop re=usa<le en$ines. Ao6ever: neither NASA nor Europe seeme, to have o<taine, any
si$ni.icant results. !n the near .uture: ussia is li'ely to have a variety o. An$ara carrier roc'ets .itte, 6ith # en$ines:
capa<le o. ,eployin$ payloa,s o. <et6een 1.5 an, 3% tons in lo6 earth or<it. 4here.ore: the $lo<al launch services mar'et
can count on ussia .or the ne)t .e6 ,eca,es.
China is not a co!petitor
<
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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R,A No+osti= 11 8Gnline ussian ne6s service: Mune 2%th: 2%11: RChinaQs 5( .i$hter Qa sho6o..QR:
http;33en.rian.ru36orl,32%11%-2%31-4/2/--4.html
ChinaQs .i.th=$eneration .i$hter pro$ram is more .or e..ect than su<stance: ussiaQs lea,in$ aircra.t ma'er sai, on +on,ay.
China carrie, out its .irst test=.li$ht o. a .i.th=$eneration stealth .i$hter in Manuary. R!t 6as more a ,emonstration than a real
pro$ram:R +i'hail 2o$osyan: hea, o. Unite, Aircra.t Corporation: sai,. 4he Chinese aircra.t in,ustry is ,evelopin$
success.ully <ut it lac's 6hat is require, .or a <rea'throu$h: he sai,. R4here 6ill <e no <rea'throu$hs here. (reat scale an,
$reat e)perience are nee,e, to carry out such pro$rams:R 2o$osyan sai,. ussia is testin$ its o6n .i.th=$eneration aircra.t
4=5% 2AO BA ,evelope, <y the Su'hoi ,esi$n <ureau. 4he aircra.t is e)pecte, to <ecome operational in 2%15. ChinaQs
prototype 1lac' Sil' M=2% stealth .i$hter is thou$ht to <e similar to the U.S. B=22 aptor an, the usso=!n,ian 4=5% Fets:
althou$h ima$ery an, vi,eo .oota$e appearin$ on the internet su$$este, the Chinese mo,el is lar$er. 4his means it coul, <e
capa<le o. .lyin$ a lon$er ran$e an, carryin$ a heavier loa,. China has <een 6or'in$ on a .uture .i$hter pro$ram since the
mi,=1""%s: an, the M=2% is notionally anticipate, to enter service aroun, 2%10=2%2%.
Russian ,n+est!ent
6
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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Russia has !assi+el% increased its in+est!ents in space $ecause the )S is $ackin" do&n
5’'l%nn >10 8Oevin G7Blynn is a Fournalist at 4he +osco6 4imes 6ho has live, an, 6or'e, in ussia .or ten years: 332431%:
http;33r<th.ru3articles32%1%3%3324324%31%@space.html>
Gn April 2: ne6 Soyu* cre6 mem<ers: t6o ussians an, one American: are sche,ule, to launch .rom the 1ai'onur
Cosmo,rome in Oa*a'hstan. Circlin$ the planet: the cre6 6ill en$a$e in intense cooperation un'no6n on the $roun,.
#o6n on earth: ussian=American space cooperation has increase,: <ut there is also unease as the po6er o. the players is
shi.tin$. ussia 6ill .uel space e)ploration once a$ain: 6hile the U.S. vision appears ,ampene,. America is relyin$ more
an, more on the ussian .e,eral space pro$ram .or 'ey assistance. As the Unite, States reprioriti*es its pro$rams: the
country 6ill rely on ussia to ta'e its astronauts into space. NASA has lon$ spent more money on more pro$rams than
ussia7s space a$ency. 1ut 2resi,ent 1arac' G<ama has slashe, NASA7s ,reams o. $oin$ to the moon a$ain. 1uil,in$ ne6
spacecra.t .or the e)ploration o. +ars is a$ain a .li$ht o. .ancy. At the same time: the ussian space in,ustry is .eelin$ the
6arm $lo6 o. state <ac'in$ once a$ain. 4here has <een concerte, investment in recent years: an investment that .its in 6ell
6ith the 2utin ,octrine o. tryin$ to restore ussian pri,e throu$h capacity. An, 6hile <oth countries .eel they are the .ront
runners: their ,ominance coul, <e challen$e, in the ne)t ,eca,e <y !n,ia an, China as they .un, their o6n pro$rams. 4he
ussian $overnment has increase, spen,in$ on the space in,ustry <y a remar'a<le 4% percent .or each o. the past .ive
years: spen,in$ L2.0 <illion in 2%%": Euroconsult reporte,. D!t7s li'e ni$ht an, ,ay:E sai, !$or &issov: e,itor o. Ne6s o.
Cosmonautics 8Novosti Oosmonavti'i>: comparin$ .un,in$ to,ay 6ith .un,in$ in the penurious 1""%s. 2resi,ent 2utin
launche, an initial L1% <illion pro$ram .or the space in,ustry <et6een 2%%- an, 2%15. Chen 2utin con$ratulate, space
in,ustry 6or'ers in 2%%0 on CosmonautsQ #ay 8April 12>: he calle, on them to pursue Dreally am<itious proFects.E 4he U.S.
Constellation human=.li$ht pro$ram that G<ama has all <ut a<an,one, 6as ,esi$ne,: accor,in$ to 2resi,ent (eor$e C.
1ush: to Desta<lish an e)ten,e, human presence on the +oonE that 6oul, then lea, to .li$hts to +ars. G<ama cut it .rom
the 2%11 <u,$et as the e..ects o. the .inancial crisis continue to <e .elt an, pro$ram e)pen,iture soare,. 4he $overnment
sai, that thou$h NASA has alrea,y spent L" <illion on it: the pro$ram is D.un,amentally une)ecuta<le.E !nstea,: America
6ill loo' to private companies to invest in .uture spacecra.t. !n the meantime: U.S. astronauts 6ill hitch a li.t on ussian
spacecra.t: a move that has NASA supporters cryin$ .oul. !n the 6a'e o. recent criticism: G<ama announce, he 6ill ma'e a
visit to Cape Canaveral: Bla.: the home o. NASA: in April. ussian an, American space 6atchers 6on,er i. this may heral,
another policy shi.t. Bor no6: the Unite, States 6ill rely solely on the ussian space pro$ram as the U.S. Shuttle retires
.rom service. No private companies have so .ar secure, investment .or spacecra.t: so this arran$ement 6ill li'ely continue
.or much lon$er. ussian aca,emic Hury Naitsev tol, !nter.a) ne6s a$ency that he thou$ht the Unite, States 6oul, <e
,epen,ent on ussia to transport its astronauts until at least 2%2%. D!n or,er to <rin$ a cra.t to the stan,ar,s o. quality an,
sa.ety .or a pilote, .li$ht: you nee, years an, years:E he sai,. NASA has si$ne, a L3%- million contract 6ith the ussian
Be,eral Space A$ency 8oscosmos> .or U.S. astronauts to .ly to the !nternational Space Station in 2%12.
Russian space spendin" increasin" no&
?3S&orld 79. 8Gnline science ne6s 6e<site: D2utin eplaces Aea, o. ussian Space A$ency: Says Space a 2riority:E
http;33666.$ps6orl,.com3$nss=system3$lonass3ne6s3putin=replaces=hea,=russian=space=a$ency=says=space=a=priority=115/">
A<out 153 <illion ru<les 6ill <e allocate, to the national roc'et an, space in,ustry this year: 6hich is 3% percent more than
in 2%1%: 2utin sai,: a,,in$ that the <ranch has sho6n a 10 percent $ro6th even ,espite the consequences o. the $lo<al
.inancial crisis. RCe have the a<solute competitive a,vanta$e in roc'et en$ineerin$: many o. our partners la$ <ehin, us: <ut
in several spheres 6e have to catch up.R 4he ussian ,e.ense in,ustry comple) is $lo<ally competitive: the premier a,,e,.
A!erica Declinin"
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Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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)S decline is ke% to Russian aerospace
SRAS 10 8School o. ussian an, Asian Stu,ies= 1%3232%1%: Dussia +ay 1ecome QA<soluteQ &ea,er in Space E)ploration:E
http;33666.sras.or$3russia@may@<ecome@a<solute@lea,er@in@space@e)ploration>
4he U.S. a,ministrationQs ,ecision to a<an,on am<itious space e)ploration pro$rams: inclu,in$ a manne, &unar mission in
2%2%: is $ivin$ ussia a chance to stren$then its position in manne, space .li$ht proFects: Huri Oara: a mem<er o. ussiaQs
4siol'ovs'y Cosmonautics Aca,emy: tol, !nter.a)=A9N. R!n my opinion: ussia has receive, an ama*in$ carte <lanche in
or,er to ta'e over the Q.la$Q o. the lea,ership in space e)ploration .rom the Unite, States:R Oara sai,. Gn +on,ay: 2resi,ent
1arac' G<ama announce, in his 2%11 <u,$et request that he 6oul, cancel U.S. plans to sen, humans <ac' to the moon:
sayin$ the proFect 6as too e)pensive. !n the ne)t 5=/ years: ussia 6ill <e the only country capa<le o. ,eliverin$
cre6mem<ers to the !nternational Space Station. 1ut ussia shoul, also start 6or'in$ on a manne, mission to +ars: the
e)pert sai,. R4o,ay: ussia nee,s to .ocus its e..orts on the +ars pro$ram. 4he time has come .or it to <ecome the a<solute
space lea,er:R Oara sai,. !n this case: Rother states 6ill FoinR space e)ploration proFects implemente, <y ussia: he sai,. R!
am not spea'in$ a<out ussiaQs monopoly on this area. 1ut it JussiaK has <een playin$ a lea,in$ role an,: consequently: it
6ill <e a<le to ,etermine the con.i$uration o. the .uture +ars mission:R he a,,e,.
A!erican space pro"ra! declinin" – Russian replaces@
Aon" <921 8aymon, Aon": reportor .or #9!CE.com: <92132%11: Dussia touts ne6 QSoyu* eraQ as Space Shuttle enters
retirement:E http;33,vice.com3archives32%113%/3russia=touts=ne.php>
Cithout a means to transport humans <ac' into space 8until 2%1-: at least>: the U.S.Qs only solution 6ill <e to pi$$y<ac' on
a ussian Soyu* roc'et: 6ait to see ho6 that mo,i.ie, Atlas 9 roc'et 6or's or ho6 the private sector 6ill step in. ussia
,e.lecte, claims that the Soyu* 6as too ancient 6ith insi$ht that on=<oar, analo$ computers 6ere <ein$ replace, 6ith
,i$ital ones U a move thatQs suppose, to Rmo,erni*eR the ol, spacecra.t. +ean6hile: ne6 Soyu* spacecra.t are still
$enerations a6ay ,ue to sa.ety 6orries. Althou$h the ol, space rival praise, the ShuttleQs 3% years o. 6or' in space: ussia
sai, its ,oom 6as 6ritten on the 6all ,ue to hi$h maintenance costs an, sa.ety issues. #espite the Soyu* havin$ 'ille, .our
astronauts in t6o acci,ents in the past 8t6o acci,ents .or the Shuttle: too U Challen$er an, Colum<ia>: os'osmos
remaine, con.i,ent that the Soyu* 6as much more relia<le an, cost e..icient than the Shuttle pro$ram. No matter 6hat si,e
o. the .ence you stan, on: ussiaQs Soyu* is the U.S.Qs only interim solution. Aope.ully: NASA 6ill have sorte, out thin$s
in .ive years to put the U.S. <ac' in the space $ame.
A!erican space pro"ra! declinin" – allo&s Russian replace!ent
Jun" <912 8Col.$an$ Jun": mem<er o. the Austrian National Council : +em<er o. European 2arliament since Novem<er 2%%5 an,
mem<er o. the 9ienna City Council: <91232%11: DussiaQs Soyu* capsule $ains space monopolyE>
4he en, o. the US space shuttle pro$ramme later this month a.ter 3% years 6ill han, ussiaQs Soyu* spacecra.t an
unprece,ente, monopoly in carryin$ people to the !nternational Space Station 8!SS>. 4he small: stur,y Soyu* capsules have
<arely chan$e, since they 6ere .irst ,eploye, in 1"--: ma'in$ them the 9ol's6a$en 1eetle o. spacecra.t. Ne6 ussian
manne, spacecra.t are not e)pecte, to <e in operation .or many years. +ean6hile: US e..orts to ,evelop a commercial
space in,ustry to .ly astronauts into or<it coul, ta'e at least a .e6 years: an, $overnment plans .or a lon$=,istance vessel
are even .arther o... Bor no6: ussia hopes to ma'e the most o. this unprece,ente, e)clusivity to raise the millions o.
,ollars it nee,s to <uil, a ne6 spaceport to launch its roc'ets .rom its o6n .ar east. +osco6 is currently spen,in$ more
than 14% million ,ollars per year .or use o. the ol, Soviet cosmo,rome on the central Asian steppe in 1ai'onur:
Oa*a'hstan. 4he Soyu* 6ill <e 'ey: not only .or the shuttle=less US space pro$ramme: <ut .or the Europeans: as the
international partners shi.t their !SS .ocus .rom construction to scienti.ic e)periments. QCe Europeans 6ill also nee,
ussian Soyu* spacecra.t in the .uture:Q sai, Mohann=#ietrich Coerner: hea, o. the (erman Aerospace Centre 8#&> in
Colo$ne.
Russian space leadership hi"h a0ter )S a$andon!ent
10
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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,nter0a#ABN 10 C!nter.a)=A9N 23332%1%: DussiaQs space e)ploration plans 6onQt chan$e = a$ency chie.E: supplie, <y 11C
Corl,6i,e +onitorin$>
+osco6: 2 Be<ruary; 4he hea, o. os'osmos Jussian Space A$encyK: Anatoliy 2erminov: has sai, that the Unite, StatesQ
a<an,onment o. its lunar pro$ramme 6ill not <rin$ a<out chan$es to the ussian space policy. RGur pro$ramme .or the
near .uture ,i, not inclu,e the ,evelopment o. lunar settlements. Ce nee, not <e s6ayin$ .rom si,e to si,e:R 2erminov sai,
at the Security 4echnolo$ies e)hi<ition commentin$ on the latest space policy ,ecisions <y the US a,ministration. 4he hea,
o. os'osmos sai, that a num<er o. ,ecisions ta'en <y the US presi,ent R.ully coinci,eR 6ith the ussian an, European
vision o. the prospects .or space activities. J4he hea, o. os'osmosQ manne, pro$rammes: Ale'sey Orasnov: has sai,: as
quote, <y !nter.a)=A9N; RCe nee, some time to un,erstan, 6hat is happenin$ in the USA. ! thin' that all the partners 6ill
start thin'in$ a<out it. 1ecause this has once a$ain con.irme, that initiatives li'e the lunar pro$ramme initiative o. 1ush
8.ormer US 2resi,ent (eor$e 1ush Mr = !nter.a)=A9N>: in terms o. e)pen,itures their implementation requires: are
unmana$ea<le even .or an economy as ,evelope, as that o. the USA. 4his is a very serious si$nal to everyone.R US
,ecision opportunity .or ussia to <ecome 6orl, lea,er in space e)ploration !n the meantime: Huriy Oara: correspon,in$
mem<er o. ussiaQs 4siol'ovs'iy Aca,emy o. Cosmonautics: has tol, !nter.a)=A9N that the US ,ecision to scrap its lunar
pro$ramme has presente, ussia 6ith an opportunity to <ecome the 6orl, lea,er in manne, space pro$rammes; R! thin'
that ussia is $ettin$ a .antastic carte <lanche to pic' up the <anner o. space lea,ership 6hich is .allin$ out o. the han,s o.
the Unite, States.R Russia shoul, .ocus its e..orts on +ars an, <ecome not a relative <ut the a<solute space lea,er:R he
sai,.K
***Dink***
11
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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?eneral
The plan kills the incenti+e 0or Russian aerospace in+est!ent
Euenelle 11 81enFamin Vuenelle is a Criter .or Corl,crunch ne6s a$ency: Corl, Crunch: /321311
http;33666.6orl,crunch.com3america=s=shuttle=no6=$roun,e,=russia=loo's=e,$e=ahea,=$lo<al=space=race334-1>
4he en, o. the U.S. space shuttle pro$ram coul, <e Fust 6hat the ,octor or,ere, .or NASA7s ol, rival: the ussian Be,eral
Space A$ency: 6hose Soyu* roc'ets are no6 the only sho6 in to6n 6hen it comes to sen,in$ humans into the $reat
<eyon,. &ES ECAGS3Corl,crunch 1A!OGNU == At the ol, 1ai'onur cosmo,rome: the site o. so many $lorious
moments .or the Soviet space pro$ram: a ussian en$ineer prou,ly points to the Soyu* roc'et Fust a<out to leave the
$roun,. 4his 6ill <e a 6orl, recor, 1://4th launch .or the <ran, o. ussian=ma,e roc'ets. !t is the 23r, time the le$en,ary
en$ine 6ears the Arianespace lo$o. Gn<oar, the vessel are a num<er o. communication satellites o6ne, <y the U.S.
company (lo<alstar. D4he Unite, States nee,s us no6: Fust li'e Europe ,oes:E the en$ineer insists. !t is: o. course: a
re.erence to the recent DretirementE o. America7s space shuttle pro$ram. 4he .inal space shuttle voya$e is set to conclu,e
this 6ee': meanin$ that .or no6: ussia7s Soyu* roc'et is the only machine availa<le to transport humans to the
!nternational Space Station 8!SS>. 4he commercial space transportation company operatin$ many o. those launches:
Arianespace: Fust cele<rate, the 15th anniversary o. its partnership 6ith the European=ussian company Starsem. !n the
.uture: Arianespace plans to launch its Soyu* roc'ets not .rom 1ai'onur S locate, in the mi,,le o. the steppe in the .ormer
Soviet repu<lic o. Oa*a'hstan S <ut .rom a ne6 .acility in (uyana. 4he .irst (uyana launch 6ill ta'e place on Gct. 2%: t6o
years <ehin, sche,ule.
Satellites
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Russia’s ahead in satellite launches
,NA .92 8,NA .9232%11: Dussia ,i, t6ice as many space launches as U.S. in 2%1%E>
+GSCGC. Be< 20 8!nter.a)> = ussia has 114 satellites in or<it: #eputy 2rime +inister Ser$ei !vanov sai, at the +on,ay
meetin$ o. the Be,eral Space A$ency 8oscosmos> 1oar,. Russia remains the lea,er in the num<er o. space launches. Ce
per.orme, 31 launches last year: 6hile the Unite, States: 6hich ran'e, secon,: per.orme, 1-:R he sai,. R46enty=three
satellites 6ere put into or<it in 2%1%: an, the or<itin$ cluster $re6 to 114 units o. ,e.ense: civilian an, ,ual use:R !vanov
sai,. 4he ,evelopment o. prospective ,elivery vehicles has intensi.ie,. RBirst an, .oremost: these are the An$ara an, us=
+ roc'ets. &an,=<ase, in.rastructure is $ro6in$: too. ! am implyin$ the <e$innin$ o. construction o. the 9ostochny
spaceport:R !vanov sai,.
/port Controls
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Russian aerospace technolo"% is co!petiti+e no& due to A!erican eport controls
Fenni"an :917 8C.M. Fenni"an: aerospace 6riter .or the &A 4imes: :91732%11 DU.S. arms ma'ers loo' overseas as ,omestic
,eman, shrin's:E http;33articles.latimes.com32%113Fun3153<usiness3la=.i=6eapon=e)ports=2%11%-1-32>
Althou$h U.S. military technolo$y is 6i,ely vie6e, as cream o. the crop: it ,oes not al6ays 6in lucrative contracts
overseas. !n April: !n,ia announce, its short list o. <i,,ers .or a<out L1% <illion in .i$hter Fets: 6hich <ypasse, American
.irms in .avor o. European ones. Brance ma'es sou$ht=a.ter .i$hter Fets. 1ritain is a lea,in$ tan' <uil,er: an, ussiaQs
airplanes: car$o carriers: missiles an, <om<s have lon$ <een tou$h competition 6orl,6i,e. At ne)t 6ee'Qs 2aris Air Sho6:
one o. the lar$est aerospace sho6cases: arms ma'ers 6orl,6i,e 6ill compete to 6in some o. the <i$$est .orei$n military
,eals. 4he G<ama a,ministration has em<ar'e, on an initiative to re.orm e)port control that 6ill roll <ac' many o. the
restrictions on the 6ay 6eapons are sol, to .orei$n countries. Northrop: 6hich speciali*es in systems such as ,rones an,
cy<er security: is supportin$ the chan$e: sayin$ it 6ill help U.S. companies 6in contracts. RCe have <een so .ocuse, on
protectin$ our technolo$ical e,$e that 6e have actually ,one severe an, unnecessary ,ama$e to our ,e.ense in,ustrial
<ase:R Northrop Chie. E)ecutive Cesley (. 1ush sai, at a recent con.erence in &on,on. R4o the cre,it o. 2resi,ent
G<amaQs a,ministration:R he sai,: Rthe U.S. has .inally starte, serious attempts to re.orm the la6s an, re$ulations
$overnin$ our e)port control.R
***,nternal Dink***
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Space ,n+est!ents
Space in+est!ents are ke% to sustainin" Russia’s econo!%
)SA Toda% ( 8Ne6spaper: citin$ +e,ve,ev 113123%" http;33666.usato,ay.com3ne6s36orl,32%%"=11=12=russia=economy@N.htm>
+GSCGC 8A2> U ussia nee,s to she, its ,epen,ence on e)ports o. ra6 materials an, to <uil, a ne6 hi$h=tech economy
to survive: 2resi,ent #mitry +e,ve,ev sai, in his annual state=o.=the=nation a,,ress 4hurs,ay. !n a challen$e to his
pre,ecessor an, mentor: 9la,imir 2utin: +e,ve,ev also calle, .or re,ucin$ state involvement in the economy an,
promise, to o..er support to civil society. +e,ve,ev sai, the country has continue, to rely on an a$in$ Soviet in,ustrial
<ase an, to ,ra6 most o. its revenues .rom e)ports o. ener$y resources. R4he nationQs presti$e an, 6el.are canQt ,epen,
.orever on the achievements o. the past:R he sai,. +e,ve,ev sai, in the Oremlin speech that ussiaQs oil: $as an, other
pro,uction .acilities as 6ell as its nuclear arsenals 6ere <uilt ,urin$ Soviet times. RAll that has 'ept the country a.loat: <ut
it is rapi,ly a$in$:R he a,,e,. +e,ve,ev sai, that years o. <ur$eonin$ ener$y prices have stymie, e..orts to mo,erni*e the
economy an, create, an illusion that structural re.orms coul, 6ait. RCe canQt 6ait any lon$er:R he sai,. RCe nee, to launch
mo,erni*ation an, renovation o. the entire in,ustrial <ase. Gur nationQs survival in the mo,ern 6orl, 6ill ,epen, on that.R
Ae sai, that ussia nee,s to .ocus on innovative 'no6=ho6: inclu,in$ research on ne6 nuclear reactors an, space
technolo$ies: an, even thin' a<out preparin$ .or space .li$hts to other planets. +e,ve,ev sai, that the economic ,o6nturn
hit ussia more severely than other countries <ut re.use, to shi.t the <lame onto the U.S. as 2utin: no6 ussiaQs po6er.ul
prime minister: ,i,. RCe shoul,nQt <e loo'in$ .or the $uilty party a<roa,:R +e,ve,ev sai,. RCe havenQt ,one enou$h.R
So%u4 Moderni4ation
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Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
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So%u4 !oderni4ation is ke% to !aintain Russian econo!ic co!petiti+eness
8orenstein and 8ula% ’11 8A2 science 6riter Seth 1orenstein in Cashin$ton an, An,rey 1ulay in +osco6: /31"311:
http;33666.mail.com3<usiness3economy35/%53%=russia=relishes=chances=create,=shuttle.html>
A!OGNU: Oa*a'hstan U 4he moth<allin$ o. the space shuttle 6ill <e mourne, <y many astronauts: <ut ussia is
relishin$ the prospect o. servin$ as the only carrier to the !nternational Space Station. 4hat honour 6ill earn ussia
hun,re,s o. millions o. ,ollars in .ees .or .erryin$ U.S. an, other astronauts to the or<itin$ la<oratory in its Soviet=vinta$e
Soyu* spacecra.t. Some e)perts have note,: ho6ever: that ussia has ,one little to ,esi$n a replacement to the Soyu*:
6hich is more than 4% years ol,: an, ris's .allin$ <ehin, the U.S. soon 6hen NASA launches a ne6 $eneration spacecra.t.
Some: li'e veteran U.S. astronaut Mohn (lenn: are 6ary o. the Unite, States relyin$ too much on the Soyu* an, point to
some technical pro<lems 6ith the cra.t in the past .e6 years. RChat i. somethin$ $oes 6ron$ 6ith the Soyu*IR (lenn
as'e, in a phone intervie6 6ith 4he Associate, 2ress. R!. 6e have a hiccup on the Soyu* ri$ht no6: 6e ,onQt have a
manne, pro$ram.R Unli'e NASAQs ,istinctive .in=taile, shuttle: 6hich is reusa<le al<eit e)or<itantly e)pensive to run: the
Soyu* can <e use, only once. !t is a relatively streamline, a..air consistin$ o. a tiny capsule sittin$ atop po6er.ul <ooster
roc'ets. 4he .irst manne, Soyu* mission in April 1"-/ en,e, in tra$e,y 6hen its pilot: Col. 9la,imir Oomarov: ,ie, on re=
entry 6hen a <ra'in$ parachute .aile,. 4hree more cosmonauts ,ie, in 1"/1 6hen their Soyu* capsule lost pressure on re=
entry ,ue to a .aulty ventilation valve. 4he ussian space pro$ram has seen no .atalities since then: an, the Soyu* has
come to .orm the <ac'<one o. international e..orts to maintain a permanent human presence in space. 4he .inal .li$ht o. the
Apollo spacecra.t: 6hich too' man on the .irst voya$e to the moon in 1"-": sa6 the completion o. a $roun,<rea'in$
scienti.ic an, ,iplomatic mission in 1"/5 to ,oc' in space 6ith a Soyu*. Si) years later: the shuttle ma,e its .irst manne,
.li$ht. No6: even the shuttle is almost $one: 6hile the har,y ussian cra.t is still aroun,. A space shuttle le.t the
!nternational Space Station .or the last time 4ues,ay: hea,in$ home in 6hat mar's the historic closure o. a pro$ram that has
<ecome synonymous to many 6ith space travel. 4he Atlantis 6as tar$etin$ a pre=,a6n lan,in$ 4hurs,ay at Cape
Canaveral: Blori,a. Ser$ei Ori'alyov: chie. o. the ussian cosmonaut trainin$ center: praise, the shuttle pro$ram as a
R$ran,iose achievement.R R!t has <een a <i$: comple) an, interestin$ pro$ram that has achieve, a lot:R sai, Ori'alyov: 6ho
hol,s the 6orl, recor, .or total time spent in space 6ith 0%3 ,ays on si) space missions. Ae sai, that the shuttleQs a<ility to
carry <ul'y car$o 6as 'ey .or <uil,in$ the !nternational Space Station: <ut no6 smaller ships are a<le to .erry supplies an,
components. Ori'alyov note, that ussia lon$ a$o too' over the ,elivery o. rotatin$ cre6s to the station: a.ter the 2%%3
Colum<ia ,isaster. RSince 2%%3: cre6s have <een $oin$ up an, returnin$ on the Soyu*. Shuttles .ly there an, <ac': <ut they
havenQt le.t <ehin, cre6:R he tol, 4he Associate, 2ress a.ter a Soyu* launch last month .rom the ussian=lease, 1ai'onur
.acility ,eep insi,e the .ormer Soviet repu<lic o. Oa*a'hstan. Sensin$ a commercial opportunity: ussia has re$ularly
raise, its prices .or <erths in 6hat is ,escri<e, ,erisively <y some as a Rspace ca<.R 4he Soyu*Qs imminent monopoly status
has $iven ussia even more <ar$ainin$ levera$e. 4he L5- million price that the ussian Space A$ency char$es NASA to
sen, up astronauts is set to $o up to L-3 million per passen$er .rom 2%14. A recent contract e)tension totals L/53 million
an, covers trips .or a ,o*en NASA astronauts .rom 2%14 throu$h 2%1-. !. NASA is annoye,: then it is tryin$ not to sho6
it. RChen you loo' at in.lation: 6hen you loo' at 6hat they are provi,in$ 6ith the service an, the capa<ility: ! loo' at it as
a $oo, investment. !tQs necessary:R sai, 2atric' 1u**ar,: NASAQs representative to ussia. Mames G<er$: a NASA veteran
an, currently a space consultant 6ho has closely .ollo6e, the ussian space pro$ram: playe, ,o6n concerns a<out
e)cessive ,epen,ence on the Soyu*: sayin$ the ussians Rare equally ,epen,ent on us .or po6er an, communications at the
space station.R 4he Soyu* ma'es .or a crampe, an, uncom.orta<le t6o=,ay ri,e .rom Earth to the space station: yet it
inspires a..ection amon$ international astronauts .or its relia<ility an, ,eceptive simplicity o. ,esi$n. Some cre6 mem<ers
have sai, that ta'in$ o.. in a Soyu* is actually less physically ,eman,in$ then <lastin$ o.. in a shuttle: <ut a,mit that
lan,in$s are o.ten rou$h. 46o consecutive lan,in$s in 2%%/ an, 2%%0 6ere steep R<allisticR ,escents: su<Fectin$ the cre6
to hi$h (=loa,s an, sen,in$ one capsule .ar o.. tar$et. 4he Soyu* has remaine, lar$ely unchan$e, in appearance over its
lon$ history: <ut it has <een constantly su<Fecte, to mo,i.ications. &ast year sa6 the mai,en voya$e o. the all=,i$ital
Soyu*: a li$hter mo,el that is a<le to carry more car$o. ussian Space A$ency o..icials say minor $litches e)perience, on
that .li$ht in Gcto<er have no6 <een resolve,. #espite the up,ates: critics complain that little has <een ,one to ,evelop a
successor to the Soyu*: leavin$ ussia at the ris' o. scram<lin$ to 'eep up once a replacement .or the shuttle is <uilt an, as
ne6 space po6ers such as China an, !n,ia emer$e. Ori'alyov ac'no6le,$e, that $overnment .un,in$ .or ,esi$n 6or' on
a Soyu* successor ship has <een insu..icient. R4he Soyu* has <een up$ra,e,: <ut 6e nee, a qualitative leap:R he tol, A2
4elevision Ne6s this 6ee' at Star City cosmonaut trainin$ center outsi,e +osco6. R!tQs a matter o. priorities. !. 6e
consi,er that important: then .un,in$ priorities nee, to chan$e. !. 6e thin' 6e can accept some avera$e results: then 6e
6ill eventually $et them.R
/cono!ic Di+ersi0ication
1:
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
Di+ersi0ication is crucial to Russian econo!ic sta$ilit%1technolo"ical de+elop!ent is a ke% 0actor
8o"etic et al >6 8NelF'o: &ea, Economist .or ussia an, 2E+ Country Sector Coor,inator. 4he team mem<ers 6ere; Oarlis Smits
8Economist>: Ser$ey Ulatov 8Economist>: Stepan 4itov 8Senior Economist>: Gl$a Emelyanova 8esearch Analyst> an, +arco
Aernan,e* 8Economist>. Dussian Economic eport No.1/:E
http;33siteresources.6orl,<an'.or$3!N4USS!ANBE#EA4!GN3esources33%54""=124503052%"1%3-230"05=
1251"-4034/"43E@1/@en$.p,.:>
4he secon, challen$e is to intensi.y the e..orts to ,iversi.y the economy: stren$then institutions as 6ell as the .inancial
sector .or sustaine,: lon$=term $ro6th. Gil an, $as e)ports continue to account .or more than t6othir,s o. ussia7s e)port
revenue an, more than 15 percent o. (#2. 1ut the crisis sho6s ho6 ,epen,ent the ussian economy is on oil prices an,
ho6 much it nee,s to ,iversi.y an, stren$then its .inancial sector .or sustaine,: lon$=term $ro6th. #espite stron$
macroeconomic .un,amentals: structural 6ea'nesses in the <an'in$ sector an, a limite, economic <ase ma'e ussia
vulnera<le to hi$hly correlate,: multiple shoc's o. a ,ecline in oil price: a su,,en reversal in capital .lo6s: an, a ,rop in
the mar'et sentiment an, the stoc' mar'et. ussia7s economic recovery 6ill ,epen, lar$ely on its a<ility to re$ain the
con.i,ence o. ,omestic consumers an, ,omestic an, .orei$n investors. 4he crisis can <e a catalyst .or continuin$ the
structural re.orms to improve pro,uctivity an, the <usiness climate an, .iscal re.orms to stren$then the economy7s non=oil
ta) <ase. 4he 6ay .or6ar, is ,iversi.ication throu$h $reater openness: $reater macroeconomic sta<ility: more use o.
cuttin$=e,$e technolo$y an, 'no6ho6: more .orei$n ,irect investments: an, a stron$er an, healthier <an'in$ system.
***,!pact***
1<
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
?eneral
Deads to loose nukes= &ar &ith China and spillo+er to other hotspots
Da+id (( 8Steven #avi,= is a 2ro.essor o. 2olitical Science at Mohns Aop'ins: Savin$ America .rom the Comin$ Civil Cars: Man3Be<
1""": http;33666.Fstor.or$3sta<le32%%2%242
!. internal 6ar ,oes stri'e ussia: economic ,eterioration 6ill <e a prime cause. Brom 1"0" to the present: the $,p has
.allen <y 5% percent. !n a society 6here: ten years a$o: unemployment scarcely e)iste,: it reache, ".5 percent in 1""/ 6ith
many economists ,eclarin$ the true .i$ure to <e much hi$her. 46enty=t6o percent o. ussians live <elo6 the o..icial
poverty line 8earnin$ less than L/% a month>. +o,ern ussia can neither collect ta)es 8it $athers only hal. the revenue it is
,ue> nor si$ni.icantly cut spen,in$. e.ormers tout privati*ation as the countryQs cure=all: <ut in a lan, 6ithout 6ell=,e.ine,
property ri$hts or contract la6 an, 6here su<si,ies remain a 6ay o. li.e: the prospects .or transition to an American=style
capitalist economy loo' remote at <est. As the massive ,evaluation o. the ru<le an, the current political crisis sho6:
ussiaQs con,ition is even 6orse than most analysts .eare,. !. con,itions $et 6orse: even the stoic ussian people 6ill soon
run out o. patience. A .uture con.lict 6oul, quic'ly ,ra6 in ussiaQs military. !n the Soviet ,ays civilian rule 'ept the
po6er.ul arme, .orces in chec'. 1ut 6ith the Communist 2arty out o. o..ice: 6hat little civilian control remains relies on
an e)cee,in$ly .ra$ile .oun,ation o. personal .rien,ships <et6een $overnment lea,ers an, military comman,ers.
+ean6hile: the morale o. ussian sol,iers has .allen to a ,an$erous lo6. #rastic cuts in spen,in$ mean ina,equate pay:
housin$: an, me,ical care. A ne6 emphasis on ,omestic missions has create, an i,eolo$ical split <et6een the ol, an, ne6
$uar, in the military lea,ership: increasin$ the ris' that ,is$runtle, $enerals may enter the political .ray an, .ee,in$ the
resentment o. sol,iers 6ho ,isli'e <ein$ use, as a national police .orce. Ne6ly enhance, ties <et6een military units an,
local authorities pose another ,an$er. Sol,iers $ro6 ever more ,epen,ent on local $overnments .or housin$: .oo,: an,
6a$es. #ra.tees serve closer to home: an, ne6 la6s have increase, local control over the arme, .orces. Cere a con.lict to
emer$e <et6een a re$ional po6er an, +osco6: it is not at all clear 6hich si,e the military 6oul, support. #ivinin$ the
militaryQs alle$iance is crucial: ho6ever: since the structure o. the ussian Be,eration ma'es it virtually certain that re$ional
con.licts 6ill continue to erupt. ussiaQs 0" repu<lics: 'rais: an, o<lasts $ro6 ever more in,epen,ent in a system that ,oes
little to 'eep them to$ether. As the central $overnment .in,s itsel. una<le to .orce its 6ill <eyon, +osco6 8i. even that .ar>:
po6er ,evolves to the periphery. Cith the economy collapsin$: repu<lics .eel less an, less incentive to pay ta)es to
+osco6 6hen they receive so little in return. 4hree=quarters o. them alrea,y have their o6n constitutions: nearly all o.
6hich ma'e some claim to soverei$nty. Stron$ ethnic <on,s promote, <y shortsi$hte, Soviet policies may motivate non=
ussians to sece,e .rom the Be,eration. ChechnyaQs success.ul revolt a$ainst ussian control inspire, sim ilar movements
.or autonomy an, in,epen,ence throu$hout the country. !. these re<ellions sprea, an, +osco6 respon,s 6ith .orce: civil
6ar is li'ely. Shoul, ussia succum< to internal 6ar: the consequences .or the Unite, States an, Europe 6ill <e severe. A
maFor po6er li'e ussia: even thou$h in ,ecline: ,oes not su..er civil 6ar quietly or alone. An em<attle, ussian
Be,eration mi$ht provo'e opportunistic attac's .rom enemies such as China. +assive .lo6s o. re.u$ees 6oul, pour into
central an, 6estern Europe. Arme, stru$$les in ussia coul, easily spill into its nei$h<ors. #ama$e .rom the .i$htin$:
particularly attac's on nuclear plants: 6oul, poison the environment o. much o. Europe an, Asia. Cithin ussia: the
consequences 6oul, <e even 6orse. Must as the sheer <rutality o. the last ussian civil 6ar lai, the <asis .or the privations
o. Soviet communism: a secon, civil 6ar mi$ht pro,uce another horri.ic re$ime. +ost alarmin$ is the real possi<ility that
the violent ,isinte$ration o. ussia coul, lea, to loss o. control over its nuclear arsenal. No nuclear state has ever .allen
victim to civil 6ar: <ut even 6ithout a clear prece,ent the $rim consequences can <e .oreseen. ussia retains some 2%:%%%
nuclear 6eapons an, the ra6 material .or tens o. thousan,s more: in scores o. sites scattere, throu$hout the country. So .ar:
the $overnment has mana$e, to prevent the loss o. any 6eapons or much materiel. !. 6ar erupts: ho6ever: +osco6Qs
alrea,y 6ea' $rip on nuclear sites 6ill slac'en: ma'in$ 6eapons an, sup plies availa<le to a 6i,e ran$e o. anti=American
$roups an, states. Such ,ispersal o. nuclear 6eapons represents the $reatest physical threat America no6 .aces. An, it is
har, to thin' o. anythin$ that 6oul, increase this threat more than the chaos that 6oul, .ollo6 a ussian civil 6ar.
Also causes accidents= proli0 and en+iron!ental crisis
5liker and 3ale% 2= Gl$a Gli'er an, 4anya Charlic'=2aley: AN# Corporation 2roFect Air Borce: DAssessin$ ussia7s #ecline:E
666.ran,.or$3pu<s3mono$raph@reports3+14423
Continuin$ tren,s to6ar, military: political: economic: an, social ,ecline in ussia threaten the interests o. the Unite,
16
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
States an, its allies. +osco6Qs capacity to $overn is calle, into question <y increasin$ crime an, corruption 8an, <y
political an, economic re$ionali*ation>. 1oth the military nuclear arsenal an, the civilian nuclear po6er sector present ris's
o. materials the.t or ,iversion: as 6ell as o. tra$ic acci,ent. An increasin$ly a$in$ an, ailin$ population <o,es ill .or
ussiaQs .uture. eversin$ the countryQs economic ,ecline an, re<uil,in$ an e..ective military have proven ,i..icult .or the
.inancially strappe, $overnment. Chile improvements: especially in the economic realm: are no6 evi,ent: their
sustaina<ility is .ar .rom certain. 4he .uture ,evelopment o. these tren,s is critical to U.S. interests. Nuclear material .rom
ussia coul, .all into the han,s o. terrorists=or$ani*e, crime in ussia is part o. a multinational net6or' 6ith lin's to
$lo<al an, local terror. ussia is a maFor oil an, $as pro,ucer an, transit state: an, the U.S. $overnment has i,enti.ie,
ener$y interests as 'ey to national security. A humanitarian crisis in ussia coul, threaten U.S. allies 6ith re.u$ee .lo6s:
environmental crisis: or con.lict spillover. !n many scenarios: it seems li'ely that the Unite, States 6oul, respon,. !. so: the
U.S. Air Borce is certain to <e calle, upon .or transportation an, perhaps military missions in a very ,eman,in$
environment.
8allistic Missile 3roli0eration
Decline o0 Russian space co!petiti+eness causes !issile proli01Russian spare capacit% &ill $e used 0or
1(
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
!ilitar% production
Baknin 07 S 8Sam 9a'nin: 2h#: 6riter: E,itor in Chie. o. (lo<al 2olitician: .ormer mem<er o. the !#B: #ecem<er 2%07: D2in's in
Space 4he Space !n,ustry in Central an, Eastern Europe:E http;33samva'.tripo,.com3pp12-.html>
4he ,ar' si,e o. ussiaQs space in,ustry is its sales o. missile technolo$y to .aile, an, ro$ue states throu$hout the 6orl,.
4imothy +cCarthy an, 9ictor +i*in o. the U.S. Center .or Nonproli.eration Stu,ies 6rote in the R!nternational Aeral,
4ri<une in Novem<er 2%%1; RJU.S. policy to ,ateK leaves unsolve, the 'ey structural pro<lem that contri<utes to ille$al
sales; over=capacity in the ussian missile an, space in,ustry an, the ina<ility or un6illin$ness o. +osco6 to ,o anythin$
a<out it ... 4here is simply too much in,ustry Jin ussiaK chasin$ too .e6 le$itimate ,ollars: ru<les or euros. J#o6nsi*in$K
an, restructurin$ must <e a maFor part o. any initiative that see's to stop ussian missile .irms .rom sellin$ Qe)cess
pro,uctionQ to those 6ho shoul, not have them.R 4he o..icial space in,ustry has little choice <ut to resort to missile
proli.eration .or its survival. 4he ussian ,omestic mar'et is ine..icient: technolo$ically <ac'6ar,: an, lac's venture
capital. !t is thus una<le to .oster innovation an, re6ar, innovators in the space in,ustry. !ts <i$$est clients = $overnment
an, <u,$et=.un,e, a$encies = rarely pay or pay late. 2rices .or space=relate, services ,o not re.lect mar'et realities.
Accor,in$ to .as.or$Qs comprehensive survey o. the ussian space in,ustry: investment in replacement o. capital assets
,eteriorate, .rom " percent in 1""0 to %.5 percent in 1""4. !n the same perio,: costs o. materials shot up 302 times: cost o.
har,6are services 6ent up <y 1/2 times: 6hile la<our costs increase, 02=.ol,. 4he avera$e salary in the space in,ustry:
once a multiple o. the ussian avera$e 6a$e: has no6 .allen <eneath it. 4he resultin$ <rain ,rain 6as cripplin$. +ore than
35 percent o. all 6or'ers le.t = an, more than hal. o. all the e)perts.
Causes &!d &ar in the !iddle east
SA,D 2001 8+aF. (en. 8ret.> #r +ohame, Oa,ry Sai, is Aea, o. the +ilitary Stu,ies Unit an, 4echnolo$y A,visor at the Al
Ahram Center .or 2olitical an, Strate$ic Stu,ies 8Cairo>: 2ro.essor o. +issile Bli$ht +echanics at the +ilitary 4echnical Colle$e
8Cairo>: an, mem<er o. the committee .or strate$ic plannin$ in the E$yptian Council .or Space esearch: Science an, 4echnolo$y:
D+issile 2roli.eration in the +i,,le East; a e$ional 2erspective:E http;33666.uni,ir.ch3p,.3articles3p,.=art/5.p,.>
4he +i,,le East7s e)perience 6ith <allistic missiles is unique compare, to other re$ions in the 6orl,. +issiles in the
+i,,le East are not only acquire, .or ,eterrence or as a 6eapon o. last resort: <ut are actually use, in the <attle.iel,. +ost
o. the important 6ars in the +i,,le East since 1"/% ha, inclu,e, missile e)chan$es 6ith ran$es .ar <eyon, the .ront line.
!mportant capitals an, lar$e cities in the area: li'e 1a$h,a,: iya,h: 4el Aviv: 4ehran an, Ohartoum: remem<er the .ear
an, uncertainty cause, <y <allistic missile stri'es. 4he nature o. the pro<lem in the +i,,le East is not limite, to con.inin$
missile proli.eration in its material sense: <ut to .i$htin$ the proli.eration o. a .missile culture an, the temptation to use
such lethal 6eapons a$ainst population centres an, the civilian in.rastructure. Bor historical reasons the +i,,le East has
.aile, to <uil, security structures or ,ialo$ue .orums to han,le $lo<al chan$es in military technolo$y an, its impact on
re$ional security. 4he a<sence o. rules an, constraints has le, to .urther searchin$ .or ne6 missile capa<ilities an, <asin$
options to $uarantee security. 4he rapi, sprea, o. in.ormation: 'no6=ho6 an, technolo$y 6ill soon put these 6eapons in
the han,s o. more countries as 6ell as enhance their lethal capa<ilities. 4he $ro6in$ proli.eration o. missiles in the +i,,le
East increases the potential .or lon$=ran$e missile e)chan$e in any .uture re$ional 6ar. 4his has pro,uce, a maFor shi.t in
military thin'in$ an, $ives threat perceptions $enerate, <y missile acquisition ne6 strate$ic ,imensions. 4he ,an$ers o. a
miscalculation lea,in$ to con.lict 6ith nuclear: <iolo$ical or chemical 6arhea,s 6ill increase.
8allistic !issile proli0 escalates – !akes &!d use ine+ita$le and collapses anti#proli0eration
Mistr% 200. 8#insha6 +istry is Assistant 2ro.essor at the University o. Cincinnati: !nternational Security: 2/.4>
4here have also <een ne$ative tren,s in missile proli.eration. Bor e)ample: as Scu, missiles acquire, <y several +i,,le
Eastern states in the 1"/%s an, 1"0%s 8an, CSS=2 missiles <ou$ht <y Sau,i Ara<ia> near retirement: the ,eman, <y these
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countries .or such missiles has <e$un to increase as they see' to replenish their ,6in,lin$ inventories. Several states in the
re$ionUinclu,in$ E$ypt an, SyriaUare ,evelopin$ Scu,s: 6hile !ran pursues ,evelopment o. Sheha< missiles. !n time:
re$ional po6ers coul, <uil, 1:%%% 'm ran$e No,on$=type an, lon$er=ran$e 4aepo,on$=type missiles an, e)port them to
ne6 clients. !. even a .e6 states o<tain these missiles: others may see' them as 6ell 8to replace their a$in$ arsenals or to
match their rivalsQ missile .orces>. 3% !n a,,ition: some states may acquire Rstrate$icR chemical or <iolo$ical 6eapons
capa<ilities: 6hich 6oul, $reatly hei$hten security concerns amon$ nei$h<orin$ JEn, 2a$e 120K states an, revive their
,eman, 8an, ,evelopment e..orts> not only .or <allistic missiles <ut also .or a C+#=<ase, ,eterrent. 31 !n the a<sence o.
stron$ international commitments <in,in$ these countries an, their nei$h<ors to re.rain .rom missile ,evelopment: states
that have renounce, their missile aspirations coul, <e$in to rethin' their ,ecision. 1ecause missile technolo$y 6ill <e more
easily availa<le in the .uture: any rene6e, missile pro$rams are unli'ely to <e halte, <y +4C <arriers. !n such a situation:
the .e6 missile nonproli.eration successes o. years past coul, <e reverse,: an, the missile nonproli.eration re$ime 8an,
possi<ly even other C+# control re$imes> coul, collapse.
Russia9China Module
Russian collapse causes $order &ars – that’s 'il"er – speci0icall%= Russia#China &ar escalates@
Nanki+ell 7 Nathan Nan'ivell: Senior esearcher at the G..ice o. the Special A,visor 2olicy: +aritime Borces 2aci.ic
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Aea,quarters: Cana,ian #epartment o. National #e.ence: 1%32532%%5. DChinaQs 2ollution an, the 4hreat to #omestic an, e$ional
Sta<ility:E China 1rie. 5.22: http;33666.*ma$.or$3content3sho6article.c.mI!tem!#W"5%".
!n a,,ition to the concerns alrea,y mentione,: pollution: i. lin'e, to a speci.ic issue li'e 6ater shorta$e: coul, have
important $eopolitical rami.ications. ChinaQs northern plains: home to hun,re,s o. millions: .ace acute 6ater shorta$es.
(ro6in$ ,eman,: a ,eca,e o. ,rou$ht: ine..icient ,elivery metho,s: an, increasin$ 6ater pollution have re,uce, per capita
6ater hol,in$s to critical levels. Althou$h 1eiFin$ hopes to relieve some o. the pressures via the North=South Cater
#iversion proFect: it requires tens o. <illions o. ,ollars an, its completion is: at <est: still several years a6ay an,: at 6orst:
impossi<le. Het Fust to the north lies one o. the most un,er=populate, areas in Asia: the ussian Bar East. Chile there is
little a$reement amon$ scholars a<out 6hether resource shorta$es lea, to $reater cooperation or con.lict: either scenario
encompasses security consi,erations. ussian politicians alrea,y alle$e possi<le Chinese territorial ,esi$ns on the re$ion.
4hey note ussiaQs .allin$ population in the Bar East: currently estimate, at some - to / million: an, ar$ue that the $ro6in$
Chinese population alon$ the <or,er: more than 0% million: may soon ta'e over. Chile these concerns smac' o. in.late,
nationalism an, scare tactics: there coul, <e some truth to them. 4he metho, <y 6hich China mi$ht anne) the territory can
only <e speculate, upon: <ut 6oul, surely result in .ull=scale 6ar <et6een t6o po6er.ul: nuclear=equippe, nations.
That out&ei"hs # "oes nuclear – lar"est population centers
Fu"hes : 8+ar' C. Au$hes: 231532%%-. DAn Analysis o. ecent +oves 1y China Chich +ay Si$nal !ntentions 4o !nva,e ussia:E
!n.oshop Ne6s: http;33ne6s.in.oshop.or$3article.phpIstoryW2%%-%21510%-23"12.
Shoul, China inva,e 6ithout a nuclear .irst=stri'e: then ussia 6oul, li'ely not respon, 6ith nuclear 6eapons: at least not
initially. Ao6ever: i. nations arme, 6ith such 6eapons $o to 6ar: then the potential .or a nuclear 6ar al6ays e)ists.
+oreover: once one si,e sees that it is clearly loosin$: an, i. the sta'es are hi$h .or each nation: then there is a stron$
possi<ility that the losin$ si,e 6ill attempt to $ain some a,vanta$e <y utili*in$ nuclear 6eapons on the <attle.iel,. Gnce a
6ar has $one nuclear: escalation is almost inevita<le: as the other si,e retaliates: an, the tar$ets o. the nuclear e)chan$es
<ecome more si$ni.icant until a .ull=scale nuclear 6ar in 6hich populations o. the lar$est cities 6ill li'ely <e tar$ete, an,
'ille,. 4he implications o. even a small=scale nuclear e)chan$e 8to the e)tent a nuclear e)chan$e can <e small=scale> in
Central Eurasia are sta$$erin$. 4he ,eath toll 6oul, <e in the millions an, the re$ion 6oul, <e poisone, 6ith ra,iation an,
.allout. Since China lac's the massive nuclear arsenal o. ussia: even a .ull=scale nuclear e)chan$e 6oul, not quite <e the
$lo<al ,ooms,ay scenario that 6oul, arise .rom a U.S.=ussian e)chan$e: since the total num<er o. nuclear ,etonations
6oul, <e <arely more than hal. o. the ,ooms,ay scenario an, 6oul, <e restricte, to a much more narro6 tar$etin$ area.
1ut the 6ar 6oul, ta'e place in the most populate, part o. the entire 6orl,: Central Eurasia: an, 6here a hu$e amount o.
$lo<al resources are .oun,. 4he ra,iation an, .allout 6oul, a..ect other lar$e parts o. the 6orl,: an, the ,eath toll .rom the
initial nuclear ,etonations com<ine, 6ith those su..erin$ ra,iation sic'ness an, lon$=term relate, illnesses 6oul, no ,ou<t
<e in the hun,re,s o. millions. An, o. course: the political an, economic impacts 6oul, <e earth=shatterin$: especially in
li$ht o. the scenarios lea,in$ up to the 6ar an, i. North Oorea 6ere enliste, to attac' South Oorea at the same time.
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***Turns G***
)S /cono!%
Turns the )S econo!%
Cooper 6 Cilliam A. Cooper: is a Specialist in !nternational 4ra,e an, Binance: Con$ressional esearch Service Specialist in
!nternational 4ra,e an, Binance Borei$n A..airs: #e.ense: an, 4ra,e #ivision: Dussia7s Economic 2er.ormance an, 2olicies an,
4heir !mplications .or the Unite, States:E +ay 3%: 2%%0: http;33666..as.or$3s$p3crs3ro63&34512.p,.:
4he $reater importance o. ussia7s economic policies an, prospects to the Unite, States lie in their in,irect e..ect on the
overall economic an, political environment in 6hich the Unite, States an, ussia operate. Brom this perspective: ussia7s
continuin$ economic sta<ility an, $ro6th can <e consi,ere, positive .or the Unite, States. 1ecause .inancial mar'ets are
interrelate,: chaos in even some o. the smaller economies can cause uncertainty throu$hout the rest o. the 6orl,. Such 6as
the case ,urin$ ussia7s .inancial melt,o6n in 1""0 an, more recently 6ith the 2%%0=2%%" crisis. 2romotion o. economic
sta<ility in ussia has <een a <asis .or U.S. support .or ussia7s mem<ership in international economic or$ani*ations:
inclu,in$ the !+B: the Corl, 1an': an, the C4G. As a maFor oil pro,ucer an, e)porter: ussia in.luences 6orl, oil prices
that a..ect U.S. consumers.
Case cannot access the DA – Russia is a !otor o0 "ro&th that is una00ected $% the )S
?il!an 6 +artin (ilman: 131-32%%0. Bormer senior representative o. the !+B in ussia an, pro.essor at the Ai$her School o.
Economics in +osco6. DCell=2lace, to Ceather an Economic Storm:E +osco6
4imes:http;33666.mosco6times.ru3stories32%%03%131-3%%0.html.
Bace, 6ith this $loomy $lo<al outloo': ussia is 6ell place, to 6eather the storm. !n .act: not only is the ussian economy
li'ely to ,ecouple lar$ely .rom a sa$$in$ Unite, States an, even Europe: <ut its continuin$ <oom == mostly <ut not solely
.uele, <y hi$h ener$y revenues == is suc'in$ in <oth consumer an, investment $oo,s: an, so actin$ as a motor o. 6orl,
$ro6th. An, the planne, L1 trillion pu<lic investment pro$ram over the ne)t ,eca,e shoul, ensure that the country remains
,ecouple, .or years to come.
2.
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China 8ad
China 0ills in 0or Russia – turns all o0 their China $ad ar"s
8er!an 10 8&lan 1erman is a vice presi,ent on the American .orei$n policy council: Dussia7s real threat; .ailureE:
http;33666.6ashin$tontimes.com3ne6s32%1%3Fan3313russias=real=threat=.ailure3. 133132%1%>
4he secon, is ussia7s $ro6in$ strate$ic im<alance 6ith nei$h<orin$ China. Since they men,e, ,iplomatic .ences in the
mi,=1"0%s: improvin$ <ilateral ,iplomatic: economic an, military ties has <een a car,inal priority .or <oth countries. 4his
meetin$ o. the min,s has le, +osco6 an, 1eiFin$ to erect a .ormi,a<le strate$ic partnership over the past 2 132 ,eca,es:
one <uilt in lar$e part upon a share, ,esire .or DmultipolarityE an, a ,iminution o. America7s $lo<al in.luence. 4o,ay:
ho6ever: the t6o coul, <e on a strate$ic collision course: even i. they ,on7t pu<licly ac'no6le,$e it. 4he <ul' o. ussia7s
strate$ic resources = its claim to .ame as a $lo<al po6er = are concentrate, in the country7s inhospita<le Bar East: a territory
that a ,yin$ ussia 6ill .in, increasin$ly ,i..icult to harness: let alone populate: in the years ahea,. China ,oesn7t have that
pro<lem. 4he Chinese population on its si,e o. the countries7 share, <or,er is alrea,y e)ponentially lar$er than ussia7s:
an, that ,isparity is only li'ely to $ro6 in comin$ years. At some point in the not=too=,istant .uture: there.ore: Chinese
lea,ers coul, see' to satis.y their country7s voracious appetite .or resources <y loo'in$ north to ussian territory 86hich
once 6as theirs>. All o. this $oes a lon$ 6ay to6ar, e)plainin$ 6hy: 6hen ussia an, China in'e, their lon$=planne,
4reaty on (oo,=Nei$h<orliness an, Brien,ly Cooperation <ac' in 2%%1: they ,i, so .or a mere 2%=year time span. 46o
,eca,es hence: 1eiFin$ thin's: the ,emo$raphic <alance <et6een itsel. an, ussia may <e quite ,i..erent: an, a re=
evaluation o. the current: peace.ul status quo coul, <e calle, .or. None o. this means that the Unite, States no lon$er has to
6orry a<out ussia. Vuite the contrary. 4he Oremlin7s neo=imperial .orei$n policy: its persistent ,esi$ns over Eurasian
ener$y an, its on$oin$ e..orts to oust Cestern in.luence .rom the Dpost=Soviet spaceE are all $uarantee, to preoccupy
policyma'ers in Cashin$ton in the years ahea,. Chat it ,oes in,icate: ho6ever: is that .urther into the .uture: the strate$ic
challen$e pose, <y ussia mi$ht not stem .rom its stren$th: <ut .rom its 6ea'ness.
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Russia Miscalculation
Turns their Russia !iscalc scenario $ecause reducin" aerospace 0undin" causes 0ault% earl% &arnin"
net&orks
Fitchens 0. 4heresa Aitchens is the ,irector o. Center .or #e.ense !n.ormation an, the .ormer e,itor o. #e.ense Ne6s. R+onsters
an, Sha,o6s; &e.t Unchec'e,: American Bears e$ar,in$ 4hreats to Space Assets Cill #rive Ceaponi*ation.R #isarmament Borum.
No. 1 82%%3> http;33666.uni,ir.or$3p,.3articles3p,.=art1004.p,.>
As a lon$=time space po6er: the ussian Be,eration is hi$hly concerne, a<out maintainin$ the inte$rity o. <oth its military
an, commercial space capa<ilities. Ao6ever: that concern emanates less .rom 6orries a<out e)ternal threats to its assets:
an, more .rom the .act that the ussian space pro$ramme has ,eteriorate, ,ue to lac' o. .un,in$. !n Mune 2%%1: Huri
Ooptev: hea, o. ussian space a$ency osavia'osmos: tol, the parliament that a$e an, lac' o. .un,s 6ere serious issues:
6ith si)tyei$ht o. the ussian Be,eration7s ninety or<itin$ satellites near or at the en, o. their operational lives.4" Ae
.urther state, that many o. the country7s .orty=three military satellites 6ere simply too ol, to <e consi,ere, relia<le: an,
critici*e, the ussian Be,eration7s mea$re space <u,$et o. USL1"3 million as only hal. o. 6hat the a$ency nee,s. !n,ee,:
in +ay 2%%1: the ussian Be,eration .or a short time lost its photo=reconnaissance capa<ilities: ta'in$ its last t6o satellites
out o. or<it 8althou$h a replacement XOo<alt7 satellite 6as launche, in Mune 2%%1>.5% the ussian Be,eration7s (lonass
satellite navi$ation system 8similar to the American (2S net6or'> also is ,eterioratin$T in +arch 2%%1: Ooptev tol,
parliament that only thirteen o. the t6enty=.our satellites require, .or the net6or' to .ully .unction 6ere 6or'in$.51
Attemptin$ to reverse the ,ecline: the ussian Be,eration7s Security Council move, in +ay 2%%1 to re=esta<lish an
in,epen,ent military space .orce com<inin$ all its military space pro$rammes as 6ell as coor,inatin$ commercial
ventures.52 Still: the ussian Be,eration7s space pro$ramme continues to <e ,o$$e, <y un,er.un,in$ an, ,ecrepit
equipment. 4his: rather ,an$erously: inclu,es is missile 6arnin$ satellite net6or's..
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The ,SS
Collapse o0 the aerospace industr% causes $rain drain
Aillia!son ’(7 8ay: !nternational Security an, Space 2ro$ram: DU.S. ussian Co=operation in Space:E
http;33666..as.or$3ota3reports3"54-.p,.:>
A com<ination o. economic incentives an, economic sanctions mi$ht <e e..ective in curtailin$ the sale o. har,6are use.ul
in the ,evelopment an, ,eployment o. <allistic missiles: an, it mi$ht help to 'eep the roc'et scientists: 6hose e)pertise is
an essential part o. a 6or'in$ <allistic=missile pro$ram: .rom leavin$ ussia to 6or' .or a ,evelopin$ nation that 6oul, pay
6ell .or their services. A collapsin$ aerospace in,ustry: 6ith massive layo..s: ,6in,lin$ salaries: an, no Fo<s .or youn$
scientists an, en$ineers 6ho are Fust startin$ out: puts $reat pressure on employees to see' $reener pastures outsi,e ussia.
G. particular concern are those scientists 6ho 6oul, ai, states: such as !ran: that are actively hostile to the Unite, States.
Althou$h emi$ration restrictions seem to have <een e..ective in preventin$ some at=tempts at e)patriation <y aerospace
en$ineers: 1 one lon$=term solution to the D<rain ,rainE pro<lem is a sta<le: via<le ussian aerospace in,ustry. 4his chapter
summari*es some o. the issues that come into play in a consi,eration o. .uture U.S.=ussian cooperation.
That turns the ,SS
Roseno& and Ahitin" >7 8+ar' an, ichar,: can,i,ates .or masters in 2u<lic 2olicy at Aarvar,: DEE9A&UA4!N( 4AE
2GCESS AN ASSESS+EN4 GB 4AE !AN NGN2G&!BEA4!GN AC4 AN# !4S !+2AC4 GN 4AE !N4ENA4!GNA&
S2ACE S4A4!GN 2G(A+:E http;33666.,tic.mil3c$i=<in3(et4#ocIA#WA#A4-1-5-Y&ocationWU2Y,ocW(et4#oc.p,.:>
4he ne)t sacri.ice 6as the .iscally sensi<le use o. comparative a,vanta$e. ussian contractors: in particular Ener$ia an,
Orunichev: are comprise, o. a hi$hly s'ille, an, e,ucate, 6or'.orce. 4he e..orts o. this sta.. have pro,uce, many o. the
scienti.ic ,iscoveries an, technolo$ies that have ma,e construction an, maintenance o. the !SS possi<le. An, <y ,esi$n:
use o. these materials in <alance 6ith those ,evelope, in the U.S. 6as the $ui,in$ philosophy <ehin, the !SS =the Foint an,
complimentary implementation o. American an, ussian technolo$y an, scienti.ic am<ition. 1y severely limitin$ the
allo6a<le contri<ution .rom its partner: the U.S. ma,e it necessary that any .uture repairs or a,,itions to the !SS 6oul,
have to either .it 6ithin the limits o. the !NA or <e <uilt ,omestically. Couplin$ the reali*ation that 1oein$ o.ten char$es
t6o an, three times as much as its ussian counterpart 6ith the shrin'in$ <alance o. the ori$inal contract provi,es a $lo<al
<usiness perspective increasin$ly critical to6ar, the !NA.
2:
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
,t’s uni*ue # Russian $rains are not $ein" drained – "o+ern!ent e00orts &ill succeed= $ut not $% !uch
Schreck 0( 8Carl: Borei$n Correspon,ent: ussia see's a cure .or its <rain ,rain: http;33666.thenational.ae3apps3p<cs.,ll3articleI
A!#W32%%"1%3%3BGE!(N3/1%2""0"%>
4he ussian scientist An,rei Sarychev spent almost a ,eca,e 6or'in$ at various US universities <e.ore .amily reasons
prompte, him to return to his homelan, t6o years a$o. 4he a,Fustment has not <een seamless: an, not only <ecause o. the
smaller salary an, .un,in$ .or research; there is also resentment .rom those in the ussian scienti.ic community 6ho never
settle, in $reener pastures a<roa,: sai, +r Sarychev: 50: chie. scientist at the !nstitute o. 4heoretical an, Applie,
Electro,ynamics at the ussian Aca,emy o. Sciences in +osco6. R!tQs Fust simple human Fealousy:R he sai,. R4he har,est
has <een esta<lishin$ relationships 6ith collea$ues: 6ith people 6ho staye, here ,urin$ the thin years. Some thin'; QChat
,oes that rich $uy 'no6IQR !mprovin$ colle$iality amon$ its <est <rains: ho6ever: is the least o. the ussian $overnmentQs
pro<lems in revivin$ the countryQs once=.ormi,a<le sciences. !ts most pressin$ tas' ri$ht no6 is tryin$ to $et specialists li'e
+r Sarychev to return in the .irst place. 4he collapse o. the Soviet Union an, the ensuin$ social an, economic tur<ulence
in the 1""%s spa6ne, an enormous <rain ,rain in 6hich ussian scientists .le, the country en masse to see' 6or' a<roa,.
ussiaQs e,ucation an, science ministry estimates that more than 2%:%%% scientists move, a<roa, .or $oo, <et6een 1"0"
an, 2%%2: 6ith another 3%:%%% 6or'in$ on temporary contracts in .orei$n countries. Gther estimates su$$est more than
1%%:%%% scientists may have le.t ussia in the 6a'e o. the Soviet UnionQs ,emise. Cith #mitry +e,ve,ev: the ussian
presi,ent: toutin$ the importance o. mo,ernisin$ the country an, ,evelopin$ an RinnovationR economy to 6ean the country
.rom its reliance on ener$y e)ports: the Oremlin has <een pressin$ .or a revival o. ussian sciences: promisin$ increase,
salaries an, .un,in$ .or research in or,er to encoura$e ussian scientists a<roa, to return home. 4he ussian e,ucation an,
science minister: An,rei Bursen'o: painte, 6hat many sa6 as an overly optimistic portrait o. the situation this month:
tellin$ E'ho +os'vy ra,io that ussian scientists livin$ a<roa, are rea,y to return Rin avalanche .ashionR +r Sarychev an,
other ussian scientists: ho6ever: are sceptical o. such claims an, sai, ussia .aces numerous o<stacles in returnin$ to the
.ore.ront o. scienti.ic ,iscovery: such as its Soviet .or<earer. R4he con,itions have not <een create, .or such a revival:R sai,
Ale)an,er Oarasi': a pro.essor at the (eneral 2hysics !nstitute at the ussian Aca,emy o. Sciences. R4here is not enou$h
.inancin$: an, there arenQt enou$h resources .or con,uctin$ e)periments. 4here are a lot more resources a<roa,: an, 6eQre
not $oin$ to reach that level anytime soon. 4here have <een some small a,vances: <ut not nearly enou$h.R Even a senior
scientist can e)pect to ma'e Fust aroun, 3%:%%% rou<les 8#h3:0%%> per month: 6hile Funior researchers ma'e consi,era<ly
less: 2ro. Oarasi' sai,. 4he mea$re salaries have also create, o<stacles in recruitin$ youn$ people into the sciences:
<ecause they see opportunities to ma'e more money in other pro.essions. ussian e,ucation o..icials sai, Fust nine per cent
o. youn$ people are intereste, in the pro.ession: 6hile Fust three per cent o. hi$h school $ra,uates $o into the sciences: a
sphere that promise, $reat presti$e in the Soviet era. R4hereQs a clear lac' o. interest amon$ youn$ people:R +r Oarasi'
sai,. R4he money they can ma'e in the sciences Fust ,oesnQt compare to 6hat they can ma'e 6or'in$ in computers or
<an'in$.R +r +e,ve,ev: the ussian presi,ent: has ma,e Rmo,ernisationR a national <u**6or, recently than's to a
mani.esto he pu<lishe, last month on a ussian ne6s portal. !n the article: title, RBor6ar, ussiaZR: he sai, ussia 6oul,
Rinvite the <est scientists an, en$ineers .rom various countries o. the 6orl,R as 6ell as .oster home$ro6n talent. RJCKe 6ill
e)plain to our youn$ people that 'no6le,$e that others ,onQt have is the most important competitive a,vanta$e: as is
intellectual superiority an, the a<ility to create thin$s that people nee,:R +r +e,ve,ev 6rote. Chile the ussian
$overnment has ma,e steps in the ri$ht ,irection <y increasin$ salaries an, o..erin$ $rants .or ussian scientists a<roa, to
return: this is har,ly enou$h to <rin$ compatriots .loc'in$ home: sai, Ale)an,er Nevs'y: a senior researcher at the !nstitute
.or E)perimental 2hysics at the University o. #[ssel,or..
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Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
Asteroids
Russia sol+es asteroids no& $ut !aintainin" their rocket capa$ilit% is crucial
A"ence 'rance#3resse 0:= the ol,est Brench ne6s a$ency in the 6orl,: Gcto<er 24 2%0:: Dussia Can epel Asteroi,s 4o Save
EarthE: http;33666.space,aily.com3reports3ussia@Can@epel@Asteroi,s@4o@Save@Earth@""".html:
ussia is prepare, to repel asteroi,s to save Earth Ri. necessary:R ,eputy hea, o. the ussian space a$ency 9i'tor
emishevs'y sai, 4ues,ay: !4A=4ASS ne6s a$ency reporte,. R!. necessary: ussiaQs roc'et=manu.acturin$ comple) can
create the means in space to repulse asteroi,s threatenin$ Earth:R emishevs'y sai,: 6ithout $ivin$ .urther ,etails. 4he
o..icial stresse, that savin$ Earth .rom the threat o. asteroi,s ,eman,e, international cooperation. RA<ove all: space
research institutions: telescopes: an, the in.rastructure o. the ussian Aca,emy o. Sciences shoul, 6arn a<out the threat o.
asteroi,s .allin$ to Earth:R emishevs'y sai,. Accor,in$ to ussiaQs !nstitute o. Applie, Astronomy: a<out 4%% asteroi,s
an, over 3% comets currently present a potential threat to the planet.
26
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
Space De$ris
Maintainin" Russia’s aerospace industr% sol+es space de$ris
Atkinson 10 8Nancy At'inson 1%: space Fournalist: Novem<er 2" 2%10: Dussia Cants to 1uil, S6eeper to Clean Up Space
#e<risE: http;33666.universeto,ay.com30%-433russia=6ants=to=<uil,=s6eeper=to=clean=up=space=,e<ris3:
ussia is loo'in$ to <uil, a L2 <illion or<ital Dpo,E that 6oul, s6eep up satellite ,e<ris .rom space aroun, the Earth.
Accor,in$ to a post on the ussian Be,eral Space A$ency: oscosmos7 Bace<oo' site: 86hich seems to con.irm an earlier
article <y the !nter.a) ne6s a$ency> the cleanin$ satellite 6oul, 6or' on nuclear po6er an, <e operational .or a<out 15
years. 4he ussian roc'et company: Ener$ia proposes that they 6oul, complete the cleanin$ satellite assem<ly <y 2%2% an,
test the ,evice no later than in 2%23. D4he corporation promises to clean up the space in 1% years <y collectin$ a<out -%%
,e.unct satellites on the same $eosynchronous or<it an, sin'in$ them into the oceans su<sequently:E 9ictor Sinyavs'y .rom
the company 6as quote, as sayin$.
There are speci0ic plans – space de$ris &ill $e "one in 202. &ithout the plan
/aton 10: 8Oit: science an, technolo$y analyst .or .astcompany.com: DSpace #e<risI ussia7s (ot !t Covere,E: Novem<er 24 2%1%:
http;33666..astcompany.com31/%513/3space=,e<ris=meh=russias=$ot=it=covere,IpartnerWrss:
ussia has announce, it 6ill <e investin$ L2 <illion in a pro$ram to capture some o. the thousan,s o. pieces o. ,an$erous
,e<ris that threaten the .uture o. space technolo$y. Ao6 mi$ht it 6or'I Ener$ia: ussiaQs space corporation: has reveale,
plans to <uil, a special space Rpo,R 6hich 6ill $ra< aroun, -%% ,e.unct satellites an, then sa.ely ,eor<it them so that they
either <urn up in the atmosphere or splash ,o6n into the ocean. 4he po, 6ill rely on a nuclear po6er core: an, cost aroun,
L2 <illion to ,evelop an, ,eploy. Ener$ia plans to complete ,esi$n an, testin$ <y 2%2% an, have it in service no later than
2%23: 6ith an operational li.espan o. aroun, 15 years. 4he company also sai, it has <een 6or'in$ on a space interceptor
capa<le o. tac'lin$ any ,an$erous o<Fects .rom the outer solar system that may <e on a collision course 6ith Earth. !. it
seems o,, to thin' o. ussia as EarthQs space Fun' an, comet ,e.en,er: itQs also 6elcome ne6s. Space ,e<ris in the .orm o.
,e.unct or mal.unctionin$ satellites is an increasin$ly severe pro<lem. Numerous or<its are <ecomin$ inaccessi<le: or at
least hopelessly ,an$erous: <ecause o. 6an,erin$ hulls or sho6ers o. shre,,e, metal ,e<ris==li'e the one cause, <y a
collision <et6een a 6or'in$ U.S. !ri,ium satellite an, a ,ea, ussian Cosmos satellite in 2%%". Ao6 mi$ht the system
operateI Ener$ia hasnQt o..ere, much in the 6ay o. ,etails: <ut its lon$ mission li.e span an, nuclear po6er source point to
its ,rive tech. a,io thermal space 6aves can $enerate electricity over a lon$ time: ma'in$ it an i,eal po6er source .or ion
,rives 86hich use electric .iel,s to accelerate ioni*e, $as: rather than the typical chemical roc'ets>. 4he po,Qs state, tar$ets:
,ea, satellites: also su$$ests it 6onQt use an e)otic .orm o. ,e<ris capture: li'e a space net. !nstea, itQs more li'ely to po6er
its 6ay up to a ,ea, satellite in or near its main or<it: an, then use the ion ,rive to $ently push the spent vehicle into a
,ecayin$ or<it thatQll en, 6ith a <urn=up. Similar technolo$y coul, <e use, in the RinterceptorR spacecra.t: only on a <i$$er
scale. !. you can i,enti.y an, encounter an incomin$ threatenin$ comet in time: you may only nee, to ,eviate its traFectory
<y a tiny amount so that it misses Earth rather than hits it.
2(
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
***A9T***
Dink Turn
Tensions !ean no link turn
'ei0er ( 8(re$ory Bei.er is an E,itor an, Senior Correspon,ent .or N2 43"3%" http;33666.npr.or$3templates3story3story.phpI
story!,W1%32"-4%2
!n the near .uture: the .ate o. AmericaQs manne, space pro$ram rests: in part: at a massive: han$arli'e <uil,in$ outsi,e
+osco6. At the Star City comple) U the ussian equivalent o. NASAQs Aouston comman, center U cosmonauts:
astronauts an, scientists .rom other countries train to 6or' cooperatively in the international space station pro$ram. A.ter
the U.S. space shuttle pro$ram is retire,: sche,ule, to happen ne)t year: the space station 6ill rely solely on ussiaQs Soyu*
launch vehicle .or transportation until the ne)t $eneration o. U.S. spacecra.t is <uilt. Si$ns G. 4ension 1ut there are si$ns
o. tension amon$ the U.S. an, ussian space a$encies: mirrorin$ tensions in the <roa,er ussian relationship 6ith the
Cest. Must <e.ore he <laste, o.. earlier this month: the space stationQs current comman,er: (enna,y 2a,al'a: tol, a
ne6spaper that squa<<les over equipment an, supplies are harmin$ 6or' on the station. Ae sai, the ussian $overnment
starte, char$in$ other astronauts .or usin$ ussian .acilities in 2%%3. No6 the ussians eat their o6n .oo, an, the other
astronauts eat theirs an, use separate toilets: 2a,al'a sai,. ussian space pro$ram spo'es6oman +arina #ri$a <lames
NASA. R!t 6as NASA that starte, prohi<itin$ ussian cosmonauts .rom $oin$ onto American sections an, <anne, others
.rom eatin$ their .oo,. 1e.ore they all use, to eat to$ether li'e one happy .amily:R #ri$a sai,. 2ro<lems Gn 4he (roun,
U.S. astronaut +ichael Binc'e ,enies there are pro<lems in space <ut conce,es that there are some ,i..erences that o..icials
on the $roun, nee, to resolve. RGnce 6eQre on<oar,: thereQs no politics:R Bin'e sai, earlier this month a.ter returnin$ .rom
a si)=month stint as the space stationQs comman,er. Binc'e conce,e, that ussians have <een <arre, .rom usin$ American
e)ercise equipment. R4he Americans ,e.initely never sai, that the ussians coul, never use our toilet: thatQs un.oun,e,.
An, the Americans: o. course: can use the ussian toilet U al6ays U so thatQs not a pro<lem:R he a,,e,.
5nl% independent Russian action sol+es the link
Car$onnel 11JA,e: Sta.. 6riter .or euters: Alissa ,e Car<onnel: 431%311: euters: DSta$nation .ears haunt ussian space
pro$rammeEK
S2ACE XS4A(NA4!GN7; !n the 1"-%s: (a$arin7s .li$ht seeme, to leap o.. the pa$es o. .antasy novels: inspirin$ ,reams o.
+artian colonies an, imminent ,eep=space travel. 1ut much o. that initial rapture has no6 .a,e,: leavin$ nostal$ia amon$
many in ussia .or the ,ays 6hen the stru$$le <et6een the t6o nuclear=arme, superpo6ers .uelle, an, .inance, the pursuit
o. ne6 hori*ons in science. US astronauts an, ussian cosmonauts D6ere never enemies in space: <ut 6hen 6e <e$an
cooperatin$ on the $roun, they cut the .un,in$:E sai, veteran cosmonaut (eor$y (rech'o: /". DEven the Americans 6oul,
call us an, say Xlaunch somethin$ ne6: so they7ll $ive us money7.E Cith competition eclipse, <y coperation: ussia7s
space a$ency has survive, over the past t6o ,eca,es <y hirin$ out the thir, seat a<oar, the Soyu* to .orei$ners.
DCooperation is $oo,: <ut as the e)ample o. the international space station sho6s: it also lea,s to sta$nation:E ussian
space policy analyst Huri Oarash sai,: accor,in$ to state=run ne6s a$ency !A. (u<arev sai, ussia ha, .allen so .ar
<ehin, it coul, achieve little <etter than a supportin$ role to,ay in the most cuttin$=e,$e proFects. D!n the meantime:
America 6ill ta'e its time out an, <uil, an entirely ne6 spacecra.t: so that .ive or si) years ,o6n the line our Soyu* 6ill <e
entirely re,un,ant:E he sai,. DNo serious money is spent on <rea'throu$h proFects.E E)perts say China coul, soon
challen$e <oth ussia an, the Unite, States in space. D4he most important role 6ill <e playe, <y our ussian Soyu* cra.t
no6. 1ut 6e cannot ,iscount the Chinese: 6ho are .ollo6in$ their o6n path an, ,oin$ all this in,epen,ently:E
Shamsut,inov sai,. NASA o..icials have voice, 6orries that the current <u,$et .inancin$ 6ill not <e enou$h to .un, a ne6
roc'et an, capsule system .or ,eep space travel. NASA7s propose, <u,$et .or .iscal 2%11 is L10./ <illion: some .ive times
hi$her than ussia7s. ussian in,ustry insi,ers say 2resi,ent 1arac' G<ama7s ,ecision to halt 6or' on NASA7s ne)t=
$eneration Grion capsule threatens to ta'e the 6in, out o. a parallel ussian e..ort to ,esi$n a replacement .or the Soyu*
that can .ly <eyon, the !nternational Space Station7s lo6 354='m 822% mile> or<it. DA little resi,ual competition is a $oo,
thin$:E Ser$ei Ori'alev: 52: 6ho hea,s ussia7s cosmonaut trainin$ centre a.ter chal'in$ up a recor, 0%3 ,ays in space:
sai,.U
.0
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
)ni*ueness pro+es – Russia’s in+estin" no& $ecause the% think the% &ill eclusi+el% ha+e space
capa$ilities – the plan eli!inates that
A'3 ’11 8A$ency Brance 2ress: Ne6spaper: /33311: httpH99&&&@0rance22@co!9en920110<0.#russia#"ains#ed"e#space#race#us#
shuttle#$o&s#out>
4o recoup its costs: os'osmos hopes to <uil, a stron$er presence in the commercial space mar'et: such as satellite
launches: its ne6ly appointe, chie. 9la,imir 2opov'in sai, at the Saint 2eters<ur$ Economic Borum last month. R4he $oal
is to ta'e up a suita<le position in the commercial mar'et; a<out 1% to 12 percentR o. a mar'et 6orth L3%% <illion per year:
2opov'in sai,. R4his is one o. the .e6 thin$s in our country that is competitive on the international level.R Chile ussia
hol,s 4% percent o. the 6orl,Qs space launches an, constructs 2% percent o. its space cra.t: currently Rits share in the space
<usiness is un.airly small: not more than three percent:R 2opov'in sai,. ussia also .aces ne6 rivals: nota<ly China: 6hich
in 2%%3 <ecame the thir, country in the 6orl, a.ter the Soviet Union an, the Unite, States to sen, a man into space in its
o6n ship. !n am<itious plans: China hopes to put a ro<ot on the +oon in 2%13 an, to <uil, its o6n space station ,ue to
enter service in 2%15. #avy,ov ac'no6le,$e, that China ha, <ecome a rival: al<eit still .ar <ehin,: <ut sai, ussia ,i, not
.eel threatene,. R4here is a place .or everyone in space:R he sai,. R!n a certain sense: 8China> is our competitor... <ut that is
a<solutely normal an, 6e have not <een a.rai, o. the mar'et .or a lon$ time no6.R !ronically: the ne6 commercial realities
o. the ussian space pro$ramme: 6ith re,uce, <u,$ets an, the nee, to cooperate on lar$e=scale proFects: ma'e some Soviet
space veterans yearn .or the competitive e,$e o. the Col, Car. R!tQs stran$e that ,urin$ the Col, Car: 6hen 6e cosmonauts
an, constructors ,reamt o. cooperation: there 6ere a lot o. ne6 launches: <ut then cooperation came an, no6 6e are
mostly repeatin$ ourselves:R lamente, retire, cosmonaut (eor$y (rech'o: 0%. 4he US space shuttle pro$rammeQs $oal o.
ma'in$ launches less e)pensive 6as not ultimately reache,: he sai,: an, its en, sees a return to sin$le=use Rsausa$e=li'eR
roc'ets little ,i..erent to those use, 5% years a$o. R+an'in, has lost its stimulus to $o into space usin$ more complicate,
machines:R he complaine,.
.1
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
Corruption
,n+estors ha+e tolerance 0or so!e corruption ### other e!er"in" !arkets pro+e@
/r"o= 2010. Consulting firm for investors in Russia/CIS. “Building a Silicon Valley in Russia: An Ill-Fated remlin
!"#eriment$% &ovem'er (tt#://))).ergo.net/Building-Silicon-Valley-Russia.#df.
Chile the ussian $overnment is toutin$ the promise o. S'ol'ovo: potential investors in the city7s companies an, .acilities
are .ace, 6ith consi,era<le ris's. Birst: ,espite the me,ia .lurry surroun,in$ S'ol'ovo7s ta): visa an, tari.. incentives:
much o. the ena<lin$ le$islation is still <ein$ revie6e,. DNot all o. these issues have <een resolve, yet:E says Grlova. D4he
people 6ho 6ant to ,o somethin$ Jin S'ol'ovoK are .i$htin$ .or these incentives.E A .ailure to provi,e these incentives
coul, leave the e..ort still<orn. 1ut even e)emptions .rom 9A4 an, pro.it ta)es may <e insu..icient to retain the 6orl,7s top
specialists an, companies. D2eople 6ant $oo, Fo<s S an, a salary or ta) issues are only part o. 6hat ma'es a $oo, Fo<.
4hey 6ant a nice place an, e)citin$ 6or':E says Esther #yson: an an$el investor 6ho sits on the <oar,s o. Han,e) an, !1S
(roup: t6o o. ussia7s lea,in$ technolo$y companies. !ntan$i<le .actors 8pro.essional mo<ility: quality o. li.e: etc.> 6ill
contri<ute to ,eterminin$ 6hether S'ol'ovo thrives in the lon$ term S <ut they 6ill not <e easy to achieve in a country
pla$ue, <y corruption: an over$ro6n <ureaucracy: an, vulnera<le property ri$hts. DBor$et .orei$n investmentT there are
serious ,eterrents 6ithin ussia .or ussians:E laments #yson. Gther issues are less apparent <ut equally trou<lin$. !n
particular: Grlova 6arns that ussian $overnment o..icials are li'ely to e)ecute their personal vision o. a proFect even i. it
contra,icts the a,vice o. technical e)perts. DCe have e)perts in ussia: <ut 6hen ,ecisions are ma,e they are not $iven the
appropriate authority:E she notes. As a result: there is a ris' that S'ol'ovo7s ,esi$n: mana$ement: an, operations may not
re.lect the recommen,ations o. specialists 6ho un,erstan, 6hat the proFect nee,s to .lourish. D4he authorities are reluctant
to $ive up their po6er:E Grlova says: Dan, that can <e a very serious ris' .or <usinesses o. this Jscienti.icK nature.E
Ao6ever: most o. Er$o7s e)perts pre,ict a hi$h tolerance .or these ris's. !n a country 6here relationships insi,e the
Oremlin are critical to ,oin$ <usiness: investin$ in S'ol'ovo coul, <e a $oo, opportunity to ma'e inroa,s 6ith the ussian
$overnment: says Ale'san,r Oostins'y: the hea, o. in.rastructure proFects .or ussian 9enture Company: a $overnment
vehicle .or ,evelopin$ local venture capital .un,s. +oreover: ine..iciency an, corruption have not <een serious ,eterrents
.or hi$h=tech investments in other emer$in$ mar'ets. DAt the en, o. the ,ay:E G7+ara says: Dthe tech ecosystem is all a<out
$eneratin$ $oo, i,eas an, ma'in$ money o.. o. them. !. it7s not somethin$ that 6ill <e ,etrimental to the <ottom line: it7s
not $oin$ to <e a <arrier.E
.2
Russian Aerospace DA – JM DD1 2011
1
5li"archs "ot &recked $% the 0inancial crisis ### the% lost their political in0luence@
Schepp ( *+att(ias Sc(e## ,,/,-/.//0. “1lo'al 2o)nturn Brings Russia3s 4ligarc(s to 5(eir nees6% 2er S#iegel6
(tt#://))).s#iegel.de/international/'usiness//6,7,-68//,89-.6//.(tml.
1ut the halcyon ,ays no6 appear to <e over. 4he US <usiness ma$a*ine Forbesestimates that the 25 richest ussians alone
have lost nearly \10% <illion ,urin$ the current $lo<al economic crisis. A<ramovich: 6ho investe, his money primarily in
the hol,in$ company Evra*: lost a sta$$erin$ amount o. money on the &on,on Stoc' E)chan$e 6ithin Fust si) months as
Evra*Qs value plummete, .rom \20 <illion to Fust \3.2 <illion. ussian steel <aron Ale)ei +or,ashov: 6ho has a sta'e in the
(erman travel $iant 4U!: lost \10 <illion. 4he total amount o. ,e<t o6e, <y lar$e ussian companies an, <an's comes to
an estimate, \3-% <illion. 4hat is almost as much money as the ussian state: 6hich controls the thir,=lar$est $ol, an,
currency reserves in the 6orl,: still has set asi,e .or a rainy ,ay: a.ter 6ee's o. mar'et interventions to shore up the
.alterin$ ru<le an, costly <ailout pac'a$es .or .inancial institutions an, companies. 4imes are tou$h .or the ussian
oli$archs: 6ho are no6 ,epen,ent on the $overnment .or help. 4he yacht a.iciona,o A<ramovich has receive, \1.4 <illion:
an, Hevtushen'ov 'eeps a close eye on the Oremlin .rom his 6in,o6 on the thir, .loor o. an imposin$ Stalin=era <uil,in$.
R! 6oul, <e a lousy captain o. in,ustry i. ! ,i,nQt maintain relations 6ith our $overnment:R he says. R4hin$s are no ,i..erent
in America an, Europe. ! can only ,ream o. the <illions o. euros that the (erman $overnment spent to <ailout a <an'.R
Hevtushen'ov is currently ne$otiatin$ the sale o. his sta'e in the telecommunications company Svya*invest. 4he <uyer
6oul, <e the ussian state. 4hat 6oul, $enerate money to settle the .irmQs ,e<ts an, <rin$ in ne6 investments. 4he <an'er
2yotr Aven recently ha, the pleasure o. .lyin$ to Si<eria 6ith 2rime +inister 9la,imir 2utin. Must a .e6 ,ays later: the
$overnment $rante, him a loan 6orth \1.5 <illion. All o. this stan,s in star' contrast to the 1""%s: 6hen the oli$archs use,
their money to secure the re=election o. then=2resi,ent 1oris Heltsin. Bour years a.ter that: .inancial ma$nate 1oris
1ere*ovs'y helpe, his erst6hile prot]$] 2utin <ecome HeltsinQs successor. No6 it is no lon$er the oli$archs 6ho are
supportin$ the Oremlin == it is the Oremlin that is <ailin$ out the oli$archs. 2olitics ,etermines 6ho can continue to play in
this enormous $ame o. +onopoly: an, 6ho 6ill vanish .rom the <oar,. 4he 'in$ma'ers o. yesteryear: so it seems: are no6
.orce, to <e$ .or .avors.
..